Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

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Construction and Building Materials

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/conbuildmat

Comparison of Response Surface Methodology and Artificial Neural

Network approach in predicting the performance and properties of palm oil
clinker fine modified asphalt mixtures
Nura Shehu Aliyu Yaro a, b, *, Muslich Hartadi Sutanto a, Noor Zainab Habib c, Madzlan Napiah a,
Aliyu Usman a, b, Ashiru Muhammad b
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, Perak 32610, Malaysia
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, 810107, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria
c
Heriot-Watt University, Dubai International Academic City, P. O. Box, Dubai 294345, United Arab Emirates

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Recently with the increase in traffic loading, the traditional materials used for road construction deteriorate at a
Palm oil clinker fine faster rate due to repetitive traffic loading which greatly necessitates bitumen modification to improve its
Asphalt mixtures quality. Amid an ever-increasing waste generation and disposal crisis, researchers came up with multiple ideas,
Stiffness modulus
however, the implementation was halted due to different practitioners’ policies. Palm oil clinker (POC) waste is a
Rutting
prevalent waste dumped around the oil palm mill that pollutes the environment. To harness sustainability, this
Prediction
Response surface methodology study utilizes varying dosages of POC fine (POCF) at 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8% to produce the POCF modified bitumen
Artificial neural network (POCF-MB). Also, the conventional and microstructure properties were evaluated. The objective of this study is
to utilize response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) to optimize and predict the
stiffness modulus and rutting characteristic of asphalt mixtures prepared with POCF modified bitumen (POCF-
MB). The conventional test results revealed that the incorporation of POCF improves the plain bitumen prop­
erties with enhanced stiffness and temperature susceptibility. Microstructural analysis highlighted that a new
functional group Si-OH was formed because of the crystalline structure of Si-O that indicates bitumen properties
enhancement with POCF inclusion. Two input and output variables were considered which are POCF dosage, test
temperature, and stiffness modulus and rutting depth respectively. Results showed that all mixtures containing
POCF-MB show better performance than the control mixture. Though, 6% POCF dosage shows improved per­
formance compared to other mixtures increasing stiffness by 33.33% and 57.42% respectively at 25 ◦ C and 40 ◦ C,
while rutting at 45 ◦ C shows increased resistance by 25.91%. For both approaches, there was a high degree of
agreement between the model-predicted values and actual. For the model statistical performance index, the RSM
indicates that R2 for stiffness and rutting response were (99.700 and 99.668), RMSE (266.091 and 0.597), and
MRE (68.793 and 3.841) respectively. The ANN R2 for stiffness and rutting response were (99.972 and 99.880),
RMSE (61.605 and 0.280), and MRE (12.093 and 2.044) respectively. The ANN use 70% data for training, 15%
data for testing, and 15% data for validation processes. The ANN model outperforms the RSM model for the
prediction of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures’ stiffness modulus and rutting properties.

1. Introduction pavement expense of maintenance and rehabilitation [1]. The asphalt

The most utilized roads around the world are asphalt mixtures and
their production and maintenances are prohibitively costly. Recently as
the number of heavy axles loading increases, traditional mixtures cannot
accommodate the increased stress and heavy traffic axles [1,2]. This
factor contributes to early pavement degradation, as well as a rise in
mixture is made of aggregate, filler, and bitumen. As a crude oil product,
bitumen has a viscoelastic nature and is made up of a complex mixture of
hydrocarbons and heteroatoms. A range of chemical and environmental
conditions make bitumen ideal for use in road construction due to its
elastic-ductility, water permeability, and adhesiveness [3]. Bitumen
performance has become more stringent in recent years because of

* Corresponding author at: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, Perak 32610, Malaysia.
E-mail address: nura_19001733@utp.edu.my (N.S.A. Yaro).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2022.126618
Received 7 September 2021; Received in revised form 18 January 2022; Accepted 22 January 2022
Available online 4 February 2022
0950-0618/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
Fig. 1. Visualization/mapping of studies utilizing palm oil clinker
using VOSviewer.
increased heavy traffic loads and fluctuating pavement temperatures.
The bitumen should be able to withstand cracking at both low and in­
termediate temperatures and also be stiff enough to prevent rutting at
high pavement temperatures [4]. To mitigate this distress affecting the
asphalt mixture, researchers are harnessing the potential of alternative
materials to improve asphalt mixtures’ performances. Due to its envi­
ronmental advantages and low fuel usage, modification is often chosen
as one of the best and most appealing techniques for achieving this
desired improvement in conventional mixtures. To enhance the asphalt
mixtures’ performance, researchers have investigated different modi­
fiers so as to improve its properties since the modifiers tend to improve
mixture performance and its design life [2,5]. Application of modifiers
to asphalt mixtures provides a few advantages, including improved
storage stability for the modified bitumen, reduced ageing, reduced
moisture susceptibility, improved low-temperature characteristics, and
reduced maintenance costs [3,4,5].
Waste is increasingly being used as an alternative to road materials to
save natural resources to promote sustainability [6,7]. Bitumen modi­
fication using waste materials is now a contentious issue since
commercially modified bitumen products are so expensive. Since waste
recycling technologies promote sustainability, asphalt mixtures
manufacturing utilizing waste resources has attracted the paving in­
dustry [5]. Agro-waste and biomass waste generation are on the rise,
and many industrialized economies have realized the importance of
waste utilization to combat this growing problem of considerable alarm
[8]. As a result, the use of biomass waste material is gaining in popu­
larity. Decreased building costs, increased sustainability, and pavement
performance are all benefits of using waste as supplemental material in
the construction industry [9]. An increasing number of agricultural and
manufacturing by-products, including rice husk ash (RHA), palm-oil-
ash, and natural fibers, are being studied for their pozzolanic proper­
ties [10,11]. Due to the fact that they are cost-effective, minimize
environmental pollutants, while also improving binder and mixtures
mechanical performance [12]. Biomass waste has been proven to be one
of the most effective asphalt mixtures modifiers [12,13]. In the oil
extraction process, vast quantities of oil palm shells and fibers are
generated [14]. Since the conventional materials used to make pave­
ment are being depleted at an alarming rate. Utilizing this palm oil waste
as an alternate modifier will be an innovative and sustainable approach.
To improve the performance of the asphalt mixtures an to attain the
perception of green technology in asphalt mixtures.
Globally speaking, palm oil production is dominated by Malaysia and
Indonesia; together they produce around 85% of global palm oil output
[15]. During the processing and manufacturing of palm oil, a lot of waste
is created. In addition, Malaysia’s palm oil production is expected to
2
Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
double by 2035, reaching almost 27 million tonnes [15] which implies
that a lot of palm oil mill waste will be generated and dumped in the
landfill if not fully utilized. The oil palm business has been easily cited as
the major sector providing plentiful biomass as renewable sources in
diverse forms; they include empty fruit bunches (EFB), mesocarp fiber
(MF), palm shell (PS), oil palm fronds (OPF), and oil palm trunks (OPT).
As environmental rules on waste disposal become more severe, palm oil
companies confront major problems. The oil palm business has been
recognized as the primary sector generating abundant biomass as
renewable materials in diverse forms, including oil palm oil trunks
(POT), palm oil shell (POS), empty fruit bunches (EFB), palm oil fronds
(POF), mesocarp fiber (MF), and palm oil trunks (POT) [16]. The palm
oil industry confronts major problems in satisfying increasingly strict
environmental rules on waste disposal. Thus, some of the palm mill
wastes are utilized, for example, POF and POS may be recycled as a
source for generating alternative electricity for the mill’s extraction
process of the palm oil [13]. This results in huge amounts of palm oil fuel
ash (POFA) and palm oil clinker (POC) being generated [13]. The
created POC is a porous and bulky material that is dumped near palm oil
mills. The continuous pyrolysis process to generate electricity for the
mill during the extraction process of palm oil will continue to produce
huge amounts of waste POC and POFA [17,18]. In Malaysia, this waste
alone is generated above 10 million tons/year [19] and the amount of
residue is increasing because the pace of palm oil extraction has quickly
grown as a result of the rising worldwide demand for oil palm [24]. As a
result, POC will be continually be generated [20]. These biomass wastes
are considered environmentally beneficial and geopolymer materials
[21]. When it comes to landfills, this residue is generally ignored. By
utilizing the VOSviewer software [22,23], a review of the work of the
literature accessed through Scopus data record and mapping on the
utilization of palm oil clinker is shown in Fig. 1.
It was observed that most study on palm oil clinker focuses on its use
in concrete mixtures aggregate substitute [24,25] have demonstrated
that it improves the mechanical characteristics of mixes. Also, some
studies have demonstrated that concrete characteristics are improved by
using POC as cement substitutes [18,19,26]. However, POC as a bitumen
modifier, on the other hand, has received very little attention in the
literature.
Forecasting the performance of asphalt mixes is difficult due to the
complex behaviour of asphalt mixture components under varied loading
situations and environmental conditions. Thus, a clear and accurate
mathematical link between input and output data must be established in
order to predict the individual and interactive influences of different
inputs on the responses (output) in a lesser number of experimental it­
erations, which can be utilized for the design of experiments, modeling,
and to forecast the optimum performance parameters [7,29]. Because of
their precision, accuracy capacity to learn and adapt, response surface
methodology (RSM) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been
employed to understand the correlation between input and output var­
iables, and simulate the characteristics and behavior of materials a va­
riety of prediction techniques can be employed and to illustrate the
connection, RSM and ANN might be used [27,28]. RSM is a strong nu­
merical parameter tool used to examine the mathematical connection
between independent and dependent responses with a small number of
tests. In cases when one or more replies are impacted by many inde­
pendent variables, this method is useful [27,29]. Among the RSM
techniques, the most extensively used and effective approach for sta­
tistically evaluating the interaction between independent factors and
responses within the experimental range is the central composite design
(CCD) [7,19,27,29]. In the CCD technique, a minimum of two numerical
inputs are needed and varied at a range of alpha (α) through three (1, 0,
+1) or five (-α 1, 0, +1, +α) phases. The CCD model has three compo­
nents: (i) a complete factorial or fractional factor design; (ii) an extra
design, usually a star design with experimental points starting at alpha;
and (iii) a center point [7,19,27]. While ANN utilizes is a method of
dispensing and transmitting information by using approaches that
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 1 stiffness modulus and rutting depth of dense graded asphalt mixtures
Physicochemical properties of bitumen, aggregate, and POCF. (AC). Also, a comparison of two optimization approaches (RSM and
Properties Specification Units Results Standard ANN) was carried out to optimize and predict the best responses for
limits POCF-modified asphalt mixtures performance using the experimental
Bitumen runs. For the study, the input variables considered are POCF dosage and
Specific gravity ASTMD70-18 – 1.03 1.0–1.06 testing temperatures while the resilient modulus and rutting depth as
Penetration ASTMD5-13 dmm 65 60–70 response (output) variables. To achieve the aim of the study, laboratory
Softening point ASTMD36-12 ◦
C 50.8 47–52 experimental data were utilized to develop the CCD-based RSM and
Ductility at 25 ◦ C ASTM D113-07 cm 124
ANN-based models. Based on the optimized RSM models which pro­
˃100
Mass loss ASTM D2872 % 0.02 –
Coarse aggregate vided good predictability and adequate accuracy, the ANN model was
Abrasion loss ASTM C 131 % 24.82 developed using the RSM dataset. Depending on statistical metrics such
Aggregate crushing BS 812–110 % 19.92 <30 as root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2),
value
mean absolute error (MAE), the performance and effectiveness of the
Bulk specific gravity ASTM C 127 g/ 2.71
cm3 developed models will be assessed and compared.
Absorption ASTM C 127 % 0.42 <2
Flakiness BS 812 Part 105.1 % 8.5 <20 2. Materials and experimental details
Elongation BS 812 Part 105.2 % 13.25 <20
Fine aggregate
Bulk specific gravity ASTM C 128 g/ 2.67
The materials utilized for the study were all obtained from indige­
cm3 nous companies and the source was kept constant to avoid inconsistency
Absorption ASTM C 127 % 1.21 <2 during the study and their properties are listed in the subsection below.
Flat and elongated tests ASTM D 4791 % 17.4
Palm oil clinkers fine
2.1. Bitumen and aggregate
Colour Blackish grey
Specific gravity ASTM C188-17 g/m3 2.58 –
Specific surface area ASTM C1274 − m2/g 1.0843 – For this study, a penetration grade of 60/70 bitumen obtained from
12 the PETRONAS Malaysian refinery was utilized. The bitumen physical
Loss on ignition (LOI) ASTM C311-17 % 6.95 – properties are shown in Table 1. Aggregate utilized are crushed granite
Moisture content ASTM D2216-71 % 0.96
aggregates obtained from an indigenous quarry in Ipoh, Perak Malaysia.
The Malaysian JKR/SPJ/2008 Public Work Department (PWD) standard
imitate the biological neurological systems of the human brain [30]. criteria for road works were used for the selection and assessing the
ANN has several essential features with the use of networked computer characteristics of the aggregate [36]. Table 1 provides the physical
devices to aid in the resolution of problems that are too complex [27]. It properties that fulfill the criteria. The mineral filler utilized in the study
is based on these that researchers in material science and pavement was granitic dust passing through an aperture of 0.075 mm.
engineering have taken an interest in utilizing ANN because of its
nonlinear nonparametric modeling, which gives a high degree of pre­ 2.2. Pocf
cision to tackle complicated issues involving nonlinear interactions [7].
Recently, RSM and ANN modeling techniques have been increasingly The POC was obtained from an indigenous palm oil waste processing
popular among researchers as a means of evaluating and solving issues company in Malaysia. The untreated POC was sorted, and other dirt and
realistically. In the field of the pavement industry, RSM and ANN unwanted materials were removed then the POC was heated overnight
techniques have recently been utilized to forecast or simulate the per­ at 100 ◦ C, to make it dry. Subsequently, using the Los Angeles abrasion
formance of asphalt concrete materials [7,31–35]. And the outcomes of machine (LAAV), the dry POC was grounded at 150 revolutions per
the successful development of the model from previous researchers have minute (RPM) for 8 h to make it to powder form. The grounded POC was
proven that model prediction utilizing the modeling techniques is of then filtered using a 0.075 mm BS sieve and the filtrate was referred to as
importance. POCF. Table 1 also shows the POCF’s physicochemical properties.
Because the distinctive feature of utilizing these methods is that the
utilization and comparison of the two optimization strategies to forecast 2.3. Characterization
the optimal -operating variables for asphalt mixtures is with lower test
run numbers, which might save time and minimize experimental testing For this study, microstructural analyses were conducted. The X-ray
[7,31–35]. Because, when it comes to pavement structure design and fluorescence (XRF) analyzer (the Bruker XRF model S8 Tiger) was used
analysis, the material’s performances properties are of critical signifi­ to determine the POCF chemical composition under helium gas condi­
cance. However, obtaining this parameter for asphalt mixtures in a tions. The POCF and POCF-MB crystallinity, and mineralogy phases
laboratory is extremely time-consuming and less efficient. Because the were determined by qualitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) using Bruker’s
traditional optimization techniques such as ’single-factor-at-a-time’ are AXS D8 advance. For the analysis of the XRD peaks analysis, the High
tedious, time-consuming, and may fail to provide optimal results. As a score plus analytical software was utilized. FTIR spectroscopy was used
result of the foregoing facts, it is indicated that a knowledge-based to examine the chemical properties of bitumen and POCF. By utilizing
predictive modeling system could provide a transparent and system­ the Perkin Elmer FT–IR spectrometer (Perkin Elmer spectrum 65, MA,
atic analysis for modeling the effect of modifiers on mixtures’ mechan­ USA) the chemical properties of POCF were evaluated and it was utilized
ical properties. Thus, the use of statistical methods such as RSM and to characterize the structural properties of base and POCF-modified
ANN to optimize and predict the mechanical performance of an asphalt bitumen.
concrete mixture to generate a model is encouraging and pivotal. Thus,
in this study, RSM and ANN modeling tools were used to generate and 2.4. Preparation and characterization of modified bitumen using
compare the performance of the developed predictive models for the conventional methods
stiffness modulus and rutting depth of POC fine (POCF) modified asphalt
mixtures. For the preparation of the POCF-modified bitumen (POCF-MB) a
This study aims to utilize waste POCF as a bitumen modifier and high shear multi-mix laboratory mixer was utilized. Initially, penetra­
investigate the effects of the POCF dosage and temperature on the tion grade 60/70 plain (unmodified) bitumen was preheated in the oven
at 130 ◦ C to make it sufficiently viscous for modification and mixing.

3
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
100
90
80
Lower Limit
70
Upper Limit
60
% Passing
Sample
50
40
30
20
10
0 2.5.3. Wheel tracking
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Sieve Size(mm)
Fig. 2. Aggregate gradation for AC14 as stipulated by the PWD [36].
Then, known quantities of base bitumen were measured and put into a
stainless vessel and the acquired weight of the various dosage of POCF
by weight of the plain bitumen measured was then added to the bitumen
in small quantities to avoid agglomeration during mixing. The POCF and
plain bitumen were blended using a mechanical stirrer with a stirring
speed of 1000 rpm for 52 min at 140 ◦ C to obtain a homogeneous
bitumen blend as determined by [19].
Conventional tests were employed and performed as criteria for
quantifying the bitumen blend. In accordance with standards, the con­
ventional properties of the base and POCF-MB blends were compared.
penetration values and softening point were determined as specified by
The ASTM D5 and ASTM D36 respectively. The bitumen ductility was
determined in accordance with ASTM D113. The Penetration Index (PI)
of plain/POCF-MB blends revealed bitumen’s temperature sensitivity
based on the Shell bitumen handbook. To assess the high-temperature
stability of the plain bitumen and POCF-MB under storage circum­
stances, a storage stability test was also performed. The test was per­
formed based on the tube test (PN-EN 13399).
2.5. Experimental details and sample preparation
2.5.1. Volumetric and Marshall properties
The Marshall mix approach was applied and evaluated for com­
pacted samples in accordance with ASTM D6927 [37] and it was used to
optimize the asphalt mixtures. Asphalt mixture having nominal
maximum aggregate size 14 mm (AC14) dense graded was utilized for
the study. The AC14 aggregate particle size distribution is shown in
Fig. 2. Using a Marshall compactor, for each mixture type, 0% (control),
2%, 4%, 6% and 8% POCF-MB, three samples were generated for each
mixture type of the five percentages of bitumen (4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%,
5.5%, and 6.0% by weight of mixture) to determine the optimal bitumen
content (OBC). Using the Marshall compactor, 75 blows/face were used
to compact the loose asphalt mixture. Prior to the performance testing,
the asphalt mixes were confirmed for volumetric and Marshall charac­
teristics at OBC, and all modified mixtures values are within the required
range for AC14 stipulated by the Malaysian Public Work Department
(PWD) [36].
2.5.2. Stiffness modulus
The stiffness modulus is a critical factor in examining the roles of
asphalt mixtures layers. It is the elastic modulus utilized in the layered
elastic theory and it may be estimated based on the recoverable strain
under dynamic loading. It’s a non-destructive test that is performed
based on BS EN 12697–26 (E) [38]. For this study, Universal Testing
Machine (UTM-30) with the number Model 79 − PV70B12/I2 was used
to measure the indirect tension stiffness moduli of the asphaltic concrete
sample. The test was performed at varying temperatures of 10 ◦ C, 25 ◦ C,
and 40 ◦ C using the UTM. To simulate different road conditions, the
UTM-30 software imitates the changes in asphalt mixtures conditions
4
Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
increases the frequency and axial force. Marshall samples with a diam­
eter of about 101.6 mm and a depth of 65.1 mm were produced and the
dimension at 6 different points was then entered into a computer system
linked to the UTM machine. Samples were preconditioned in the UTM
machine at various temperatures around 3 h before the test. On the
vertical diameter of the specimens, 12 mm wide loading strips were used
to apply a transverse compressive force. After an applied force was
supplied to the test specimen in pulses, the resulting total recoverable
diametric strain was measured along 0 and 90◦ axes and displayed on
the monitor screen. For the type and temperature of each mixture,
triplicate samples were analyzed, and the averaged value was reported.
Rutting one of the most prevalent pavement problems is which re­
duces road user comfort and increases maintenance expenses. Rutting
simulator testing utilizing the wheel tracking system is one of the most
utilized tests for the evaluation of compacted asphalt mixtures slabs or
mixes containing modified bitumen because it provides better practical
emulation [39]. Using a wheel tracking test, asphalt mixture failure
susceptibility may be evaluated for inadequate bitumen coating aggre­
gate and weak adhesion between aggregates and bitumen [25]. This test
was done according to BS 598–110 [40]. Wessex wheel tracking
equipment was utilized to evaluate for resistance to rutting of the
asphalt mixtures. For the wheel track test, a slab-shaped specimen with a
measurement of 300 mm × 300 mm × 50 mm was produced by mixing
roughly 10 kg of aggregates (coarse, fine, and mineral filler) at respec­
tive OBC of POCF-MB. The samples are mixed at 150 ± 10 ◦ C and a
kneading compactor was used to compact the samples to obtain 7 ± 2%
air void content. For this study, three different temperatures 45 ◦ C,
55 ◦ C, and 60 ◦ C were considered for the test. Before the testing, the
slabs were preconditioned at various testing temperatures for six hours
before the test began. The test was done under normal experiment cir­
cumstances (BS 598–110) with wheel loads of 520 ± 5 N, which move
back and forth in repetitive motion at 42 passes or 21 cycles per minute
for 45 min or until a 15 mm deformation occurs in the samples,
whichever transpires first [25]. During the experiment, the rut depth
was measured every 5 min. For the different types of the mixture, three
samples were produced and analyzed, and the mean value is recorded.
2.6. Mathematical modeling approach
2.6.1. Response surface methodology for the experimental based design
The RSM is a technique of mathematical and statistical approaches
used for creating, enhancing, and optimizing problems when an output
factor is impacted by several input factors [29]. The central composite
design, through the RSM which is a fractional factorial design approach,
gives the synergetic functional connection between the input and output
factors [27]. Stat-Ease Inc.’s Design Expert (V11.1.0) software was uti­
lized in this study for the design of the experiment, statistical analysis,
modeling, and optimization. This software provides strong tools for
combining dependent and independent variables in a process, mixed
combination. It also aids in the visualization of data that has a greater
impact on other variables, as well as in the exact modeling of the results
obtained. From works of literature, CCD has shown to be an effective
method to show the interconnection between the input and output
variables within the laboratory range [7,19,41,42]. Thus, for this study,
the optimal CCD technique was utilized for the design of the experiment
and to describe the variables for analysis, because of its accurate pre­
diction, time-saving, and minimizing the number of experimental runs
[43,44].
For both responses (stiffness modulus and rutting depth), the inde­
pendent variables’ levels and ranges were chosen based on selected
previous works of literature and standard specification [7,19,36,38,40].
The independent variables considered are the POCF dosage which was
varied in five-factor levels (0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8%) and the test
temperature was varied in three-factor levels (10 ◦ C, 25 ◦ C, and 40 ◦ C)
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 2 the complicated non-linear connection between input and output vari­
Design of experiment matrix for stiffness modulus and rutting responses. ables that can understand and forecast the trend of experimental data
Exp. Stiffness modulus Rutting depth when trained [46]. ANNs are capable of predicting, clustering, opti­
run Autonomous Responses Autonomous Response mizing, and allocating the influence of specific optimization parameters
(Mix) variables variables on the behavior of the desired output, among other functions [45].
A: POCF B: Stiffness A: POCF B: Rut depth
When it comes to improving ANN model estimation precision, many
dosage Temp. modulus dosage Temp. (mm)
(%) (◦ C) (MPa) (%) (◦ C) techniques have been proposed. However, the backpropagation algo­
rithm is one of the most effective [7,47]. In the ANNs, besides the input
1 4 25 1612 6 60 3.492
2 4 25 1594 8 55 3.631
layer, the network consists of one or more hidden layers and the output
3 2 10 2302 0 60 4.392 layer. A single artificial neuron gets information from other neurons,
4 4 25 1628 2 55 3.641 analyses it, and then sends it on to other neurons [7]. For the study,
5 8 10 2294 2 55 3.569 John’s Macintosh Project (JMP) Pro statistical software was employed
6 4 25 1598 0 55 4.094
via the feed-forward with one hidden layer, the backpropagation
7 0 25 1076 0 45 3.892
8 8 25 1298 2 45 3.412 learning method was utilized. Hidden layers and output layers were
9 4 10 2494 8 45 3.437 activated using a logarithmic sigmoid transfer function. To avoid over­
10 6 10 2895 2 60 4.014 training and over-parameterization, the data was separated into
11 0 10 2127 4 45 3.216 training, cross-validation, and testing sets. For the ANN analysis, the
12 0 40 419 6 60 3.621
same 16 mix runs of the dataset generated from RSM were utilized for
13 8 25 1313 2 55 3.542
14 6 40 978 2 55 3.598 model training, validation, and testing also the ANN uses 70% data for
15 4 40 752 6 45 3.091 training, 15% data for validation, and 15% data for testing processes. To
16 6 40 984 8 55 3.649 ensure accuracy and minimize network overfitting, this ratio was
determined by experimentation. While the network was being trained by
modifying the weights, datasets validation was utilized to evaluate the
for stiffness modulus response, and rutting response having test tem­
network’s performance and get the best fitting in terms of coefficient of
perature of the input variables varied in three variable levels (45 ◦ C,
determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) values, and the
55 ◦ C, and 60 ◦ C). After assigning low and high levels from the CCD-RSM
best signal was utilized for the prediction.
DoE, a total of sixteen (16) mixes were generated by the software as
shown in Table 2. The central point was replicated four times by the
RSM software to enhance the reliability of the experiment, analysis, and 2.7. Model performance and comparison criteria
error assessment.
The stiffness modulus and rut depth values obtained from the com­ The effectiveness and significance of the RSM and ANN models
puter software attached to the test machines were entered into the RSM developed were assessed based on three statistical performance metrics:
DoE for analysis. After running the CCD analysis using an appropriate coefficient of determination (R2), roots mean square error (RMSE) and
polynomial model with terms as indicated in Eq. (1), the optimum in­ mean relative error (MRE), which were obtained by using Eqs. (2) to (4),
dependent factors for the predicted were attained. respectively.
∑
n n ∑
∑ n (∑ )
(1)
n 2
Y = β0 + βk Xk + βkJ X k X J + ε i=1 (Ei − Pi )
k=1 k=1 j≥k
2
R = 1− ∑n 2
(2)
i=1 (Pi )

Here Y is the predicted response (stiffness and rut depth), β0 is the √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
constant response value of the design center, Xk and Xj are independent 1∑ n
RMSE = (Ei − Pi )2 (3)
variables (POCF dosage and testing temperature, βk is the linear coeffi­ n i=1
cient, βkj is the interactive coefficient, where K is the linear coefficient,
j is the quadratic coefficient, n is the number of factors and ε represent 1∑ n ⃒⃒
⃒
⃒
⃒100 Ei − Pi ⃒ (4)
error or noise detected in the model. MRE(%) =
n i=1 ⃒ Ei ⃒
To test the model’s performance in terms of the responses inputted,
an ANOVA was performed on the data. With a confidence level of 95%, Here, Ei signifies the experimental data, Pi is the predicted data value
other ANOVA criteria such as lack of fit, F-value, and p-values were by the RSM and ANN, and n is the entire count of data or sample size.
employed to assess the accuracy, suitability, and significance of
regression models. Using design experts, 2D and 3D model graphs were 3. Results and discussions
generated to show the synergetic influence of two input variables on the
selected model. To validate RSM findings, verification was carried out to 3.1. POCF characterizations.
validate and evaluate the statistically derived response outputs. An
additional experiment using estimated values from numerical RSM POCF chemical compositions are shown in Table 3. The table shows
optimization was performed and the verification was analyzed. The that POCF is mostly composed of silica, which accounts for more than
optimum conditions were established through numerical optimization, half of its composition. Other minor chemicals found in the POCF are
which can be used to validate the RSM design results. aluminum oxide, potassium oxide, calcium oxide, and iron oxide. The
POCF could be classified as a class C pozzolanic material based on the
2.6.2. Artificial neural network collected data since the total of SiO2, Al2O3, and Fe2O3 is greater than
ANN is an intelligent modeling tool that imitates the way the bio­ the minimum criterion of 50%. POCF’s pozzolanic behavior is further
logical nervous system (brain) processes data [45,46]. ANN can describe defined by the presence of high silica and the pozzolanic activity of the

Table 3
POCF XRF analysis data and composition.
Oxides SiO2 Fe2O3 CaO Al2O3 K2 O MgO P2O5 SO3

Abundance (%) 53.70 3.87 17.00 1.46 13.90 2.37 5.29 0.92

5
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
Fig. 3. POCF powder XRD pattern.
Fig.4. POCF FTIR spectrometer.
amorphous silica. The amorphous silica’s reactivity is owing to its
thermodynamically unstable silica networks [19].
Fig. 3 shows the X-ray diffraction pattern of POCF. A quartz-
dominated crystallization was detected in the POCF’s XRD spectrum.
As demonstrated between 20◦ and 35◦ , the POCF phase is mostly crys­
talline with traces of amorphosity halo of silica oxide and potassium
alumina silicate (2-theta). A-quartz was found to be the main phase,
with the highest peaks being (α-SiO2). In addition, the XRD analysis
reveals that the reference number of the POCF is 01–075-8320, with
peaks corresponding to 20.82◦ , 26.62◦ , and 39.43◦ , and comparisons
were made with (Joint Committee on Powder Diffraction Standards
(JCPDS) entry card number 00–46-1045 for silicon dioxide/quartz [34].
Fig. 4 shows the results of the POCF FTIR analysis. The FTIR data also
identifies the quartz and cristobalite minerals found in POCF. In FTIR
spectra, the peak of organic carbon was detected at about 3000 cm− 1.
Quartz is one of the most important minerals in POCF, and it is always
present. Crystalline phases such as quartz materials are present in the
samples, as evidenced by the existence of two bands at 997 and 1033
cm− 1 that is caused by vibrations in the stretching and bending bands of
(Si-O) in SiO4. Si-O-Si vibration bending was responsible for peaks be­
tween 480 and 554 cm− 1.
6
Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
Fig. 5. XRD diffractogram profiles for plain bitumen and POCF-MB at vary­
ing dosages.
Fig. 6. FTIR spectral analysis for POCF, Plain bitumen, and POCF-MB at
varying dosage.
3.2. Modified bitumen microstructural characterizations
3.2.1. Xrd
XRD was used to determine plain bitumen and POCF-MB structural
properties, as illustrated in Fig. 5. It was observed that the base bitumen
was entirely amorphous (non-crystalline), with no identifiable peaks.
However, with the incorporation of POCF, the base bitumen was
transformed from amorphous to semi-crystalline which indicated the
effect of POCF modification on the base bitumen structural character­
istic. The peak of semi-crystalline may be observed at an angle around
21.8◦ . There was significant molecular silica - bitumen interactions that
cause the peak diffraction to shift. In other words, the asphaltene mol­
ecules are not separated from the silica and bitumen by crystallization.
These results demonstrate that there is intercalation and peeling due to
the modified bitumen peaks that fall between the carbon and silica peak
areas. The findings are in line with the results reported in previous
studies [48,49] where bitumen was modified with a silicious material.
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 4 3.2.2. Ftir

FTIR spectra for various functional groups and bonds for plain and modified The plain and POCF-MB chemical bonding changes were determined
bitumen. using FTIR. Fig. 6. displays the absorbance bands of POCF-MB samples
Wavenumber Functional Vibration Plain POCFmodified from 500 cm− 1 to 3750 cm− 1 wavenumbers and Table 4 shows the base
(cm− 1) group bitumen bitumen and POCF-MB FT-IR spectra with their different assignments. According
710–910 Aromatic Bending C─H 730–750 730–750 to the figure, the trends of base and POCF-MB at different dosages are a
805–890 Aromatic Stretching C = C 809, 815 810, 817 bit different. According to Fig. 6. aromatic hydrocarbons and saturated
980–1035 Sulfoxide, Stretching S═O 1032 1032 hydrocarbons are responsible for the bulk of the absorbance bands be­
1010–1300. Stretching Si-O- 1015–1150
–
tween 1375 and 1530 cm− 1 and 2850 and 3000 cm− 1
Si
1100–1190 Aliphatic Stretching 1160 1160 It was noted that the main bands detected for base bitumen differed
branched C─O─C little from the POCF-MB. This may be deduced from the proportional
1350–1390 Alkanes Bending 1378 1372 quantity of silica and carbon in the POCF, generated by a greater per­
(Methyl) CH3(aliphatic) centage of improperly bonded regions between the functional groups of
1400–1490 Alkanes Bending CH2of 1458 1458
(Methylene) -(CH2) n-
bitumen hydrophobicity and POCF surface. This suggests that the
aliphatic index addition of POCF enhanced the bitumen carbonyl and sulphoxide by
1560–1630 Aromatic StretchingC ═C 1621 1621 making the bitumen becomes stiffer by slowing down the bitumen
1650–1750 Carbonyl Stretching C = 1723 1725 particle’s movement these findings are comparable to works of literature
and O
[19,48].
Aldehydes
2849–2924 Aldehyde Stretching CH3 2851 2851 and 2919
(aliphatic and 3.2.3. Modified bitumen conventional testing
branched) 2919 The conventional properties of the plain and modified bitumen such
3367–3396 Aldehyde Stretching C–H 3287 3287 as penetration and softening point, ductility, and storage stability were
aliphatic
evaluated for the different dosages of POCF. Table 5 and Fig. 7 show the
results of conventional tests performed and are discussed below.
The combined penetration, softening point, and PI values of the
Table 5 POCF-MB are shown in Fig. 7. It was observed that with the incorpo­
Conventional properties of plain and POCF-MB at varying dosages. ration of POCF into the base bitumen from 0 to 8%, the penetration
Conventional Type of bitumen blend grade of the bitumen was reduced while softening point was enhanced,
properties Plain 2% 4% 6% 8% indicating that penetration was inversely related to softening point, the
bitumen POCF POCF POCF POCF
asphaltene portion of bitumen is also increased by the micro silica’s
Penetration (dmm) 66 61 57 55 52 absorption of the maltene phase. In addition, POCF particles have a
Softening point 48.8 49.1 49.6 50.1 50.8
higher stiffness than bituminous materials. Thus, the higher the POCF
(◦ C)
Penetration index − 0.369 − 0.332 − 0.289 − 0.218 − 0.207
dosage the stiffer bitumen blend. It was observed from the study that
Ductility (cm) 117 94.7 85.20 79.40 73 POCF had a significant impact on the stiffness characteristics of the
Storage stability 0.17 0.78 1.37 1.74 1.98 bitumen. Because stiffer bitumen blends with reduced penetration and
(◦ C) higher softening temperature softening points will be less susceptible to
temperature changes, and asphalt mixtures produced with this bitumen
at very high temperatures will be more resistant to rutting.
A higher-PI value indicates softer binder mixes that can be utilized in
colder climates., while lower-PI values indicate a stiffer blend. It was

Fig. 7. Combined penetration, softening point, and penetration index of POCF-MB at varying dosages.

7
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 6
Result of volumetric and Marshall properties of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures at respective OBC.
Parameters PWDLimits Mixture type Remark
0% POCF 2% POCF 4% POCF 6% POCF 8% POCF

OBC 4–6 5.20 5.11 5.00 4.93 4.97 Pass

BUW – 2.357 2.363 2.372 2.378 2.381 Pass
VTM (%) 3–5 4.12 3.94 3.82 3.53 3.41 Pass
VMA (%) >14 15.51 15.17 15.06 14.98 14.85 Pass
VFB (%) 70–80 71.12 72.02 73.17 74.06 74.28 Pass
Stability (kN) >8 10.87 11.28 13.85 14.98 14.10 Pass
Flow (mm) 2–5 3.19 2.98 2.86 2.69 2.70 Pass
MQ (kN/mm) >2 3.41 3.79 4.84 5.57 5.25 Pass

improves the viscosity of the modified bitumen which consequently

Fig. 8. Stiffness modulus of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures at 25 ◦ C and 40 ◦ C.
observed, when the POCF dosage increases, the PI for the modified
bitumen drops, lower-PI values are advantageous for the modified
bitumen blend especially in moderate temperature locations, like
Malaysia since bitumen will be more resistant to low-temperature
cracking and rutting [49]. Bitumen’s ductility is a measure of its vis­
cosity (adhesion and cohesion). It was observed that by increasing the
POCF dosage the ductility of the bitumen blends decreases. The reduc­
tion in ductility is caused by improve viscosity and stiffness of the
maltene phase by reducing oily components of the bitumen. As seen
from Table 6, shows as the modified bitumen becomes stiffer and it re­
duces ductility compared to base bitumen. For the storage stability, the
POCF-MB is more stable when the disparity is ≤ 2.2 ◦ C. The study has
shown the compatibility between the bitumen and POCF, with a dif­
ference ≤ of 2.2 ◦ C between the top and bottom sections softening point
of the aluminum tube. POCF-MB storage had a low segregation rate,
indicating that it will be stable at high temperatures.
3.3. Marshall and volumetric properties of modified asphalt mixtures
As shown in Table 6, the respective OBC values of various dosages of
POCF-MB asphalt mixtures are displayed and they are lower than that of
control mixtures, implying that the aggregate content of POCF-MB
mixtures does not require significantly more bitumen to create dura­
ble mixtures this is because of the viscosity characteristic of the modified
bitumen at mixing and compaction temperatures, which was adequate
to coat the aggregate effectively, during compaction under shearing
action of Marshall compactor. More notably, the 8% POCF-MB mixtures
exhibit a small increase in OBC when compared to those with 6% POCF-
MB mixtures. The slight increase may be ascribed to the mixture’s
increased need to offer adequate fluidity to be adequately compacted
[2,51].
As observed in Table 6 as the POCF dosage increased, the mixture’s
bulk unit weight (BUW) was also improved. This is because the POCF
makes it occupy more voids between aggregates and improved the
bonding that leads to improved density. The improved bulk density of
the POCF-MB mixtures may be owing to the good workability of the
mixture and improvement in the viscosity of the modified bitumen. The
higher density of the POCF-MB mixtures can be ascribed to the
improvement in conventional properties of the modified bitumen which
can also be attributed to an increase in density by the formation of a
sufficient coating surrounding the aggregate that also increases the
density of the mixtures.
As seen in Table 6 the test results for Marshall stability were observed
to improve with an increase in POCF dosage up to 6% but subsequently
declined with an increase in additive content. The improvement in the
Marshall stability may be attributed to the modifier (POCF) enhancing
the bonding between aggregate particles, which improved the stiffness
of the mixtures and make the samples withstand more loadings which
indicate the improved stiffness of the bitumen when POCF-MB fills and
improves weaker portions of the asphalt mixture. For the flow values,
mixtures with very low flow values are considered stiff and hence prone
to cracking whereas mixtures with higher flow values are more prone to
deformation under stress. From the flow values, it is evident that the
flow values of POCF-MB mixtures have considerably lower flow values
than the control mixtures, indicating that the modified mixtures will
have less deformation compared to control mixtures. This might be
attributed to the high stability values of the asphalt mixtures. However,
all POCF-MB mixtures flow values fall within the PWD limit. The POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures had a higher VFB than the control mixed sample, as
can be shown in Table 6. Even though the modified bitumen is less
viscous relative to the unmodified bitumen, it effectively penetrates the
pores of the aggregate, resulting in a higher proportion of VFB in the
asphalt mixtures. The VFB of the POCF-MB mixture samples is higher
suggesting that the modified asphalt mixture samples will have fewer air
spaces than the control samples.
For the POCF-MB VMA, it was observed that a higher dosage of POCF
in bitumen resulted in the lowest decrease in VMA as observed in
Table 6. This effect might be explained by the agglomeration of POCF in
the mixtures, which rises with increasing POCF dosage in the bitumen.
POCF clumps at a higher dosage, making it more difficult for aggregates
to absorb bitumen. Although, all POCF-MB asphalt mixtures were
observed to have sufficient VMA levels indicated by PWD specification.
This adequate VMA obtained in the mixes will aid in providing a suitable
covering of aggregate in addition to improving the asphalt mixture’s
strength. For the VTM, because POCF improves the bitumen viscosity, its
ability to react with the other mixtures components was enhanced, and
the result was a high bulk density, as illustrated in Table 6 due to its
great workability to mix, the 8% POCF-MB mixture had the lowest air
voids value. Asphalt mixtures with lower air gaps alleviate air and water
passage into the mix which tends makes the mix stiffer and more
resistant to rutting. The surface area of POCF particles and their inter­
action with the bitumen which enhances bitumen absorption and makes
it stiffer can be attributed to the increase in stiffness of asphalt mixtures
due to POCF modifications. This behavior of mixes may be ascribed to
the POCF-MB mixtures’ improved viscosity and compatibility, which

8
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

4.5 The 6% POCF-MB mixtures (1614 MPa) showed the highest stiffness
4.0 modulus and the control asphalt mixture have the least (1076 MPa) at
25 ◦ C. Also, at 40 ◦ C, the stiffness modulus of the control, 2%, 4%, 6%,
Rut depth (mm)

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Cycle time (mins)
Fig. 9. POCF-MB asphalt mixtures rutting depth at 45 ◦ C.
assisted in the adequate coating of aggregate. While for the MQ values,
as the POCF content increases up to 6% it was also observed to increase
beyond which it experiences a decline at a higher POCF dosage of 8%.
3.4. POCF-MB asphalt mixture stiffness modulus
The stiffness modulus of both the control and different dosages of
POCF-MB asphalt mixtures at 25 ◦ C and 40 ◦ C are depicted in Fig. 8. For
each mix type, the three samples’ values were recorded at both 0 and
90◦ , and the average values were reported. Both test temperatures
showed similar patterns, as it was observed that the stiffness modulus of
the mixtures was considerably improved due to modification. All POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures had a higher stiffness modulus value than the
control mixture. The incorporation of POCF as a bitumen modifier might
result in an increased stiffness which would probably be due to effective
interaction between the modified bitumen and the other asphalt mixture
constituents’ materials [11,25]. In addition, the stiffness improvement
may be ascribed to the POCF-MB improved bonding and adhesiveness,
which makes the modified bitumen and aggregate particles have a
stronger interaction. Another reason can also be attributed to greater
POCF-bitumen mastic bonding as observed when POFA was observed to
improve the asphalt mixtures stiffness [11] as it improves the inter­
locking of the aggregates making it have a higher stiffness modulus.
and 8% POCF-MB asphalt mixtures were 419 MPa, 686 MPa, 752 MPa,
984 MPa, and 690 MPa, respectively. The decline in stiffness modulus of
the 8% POCF-MB mixtures could have been hampered by the high
dosage of POCF in the base bitumen. Generally, a large dosage of the
Control
modifier reduces bitumen mastic viscosity, which would lead to a lower
2%POCF-MB stiffness modulus. A similar trend was observed by [50,51]. After
4%POCF-MB loading at medium and high temperatures, the 6% POCF-MB asphalt
6%POCF-MB
8%POCF-MB mixture showed greater recoverability than the other mixes. The
modified bitumen’s elasticity determines the asphalt mixture’s capacity
40 45 50 to return to its original state. It was observed that the asphalt mixes with
6% POCF-MB have enhanced stiffness and elasticity.
3.5. POCF-MB asphalt mixtures rutting test
Fig. 9 shows the average rut depth versus rut cycle time for both
control and POCF-MB asphalt mixtures at various dosages. All the POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures show a lower rut depth than the control mixture,
indicating they are more resistant to rutting. There was a significant
improvement in rutting performance with 4% POCF-MB and 6% POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures. This is because the asphalt mixtures showed sub­
stantial improvement in viscoelasticity and stiffness, resulting in the
improved aggregate coating leading to a well-connected aggregate
bitumen matrix with greater resistance to rutting [25,51]. Also, the
improved densification of modified mixtures could be attributed for the
reduced rut depth.
Among the POCF-MB mixtures, 8% POCF-MB displays the most
rutting depth. When a high dosage of POCF is incorporated into bitumen
it produces a very viscous blend that is unable to adequately coat the
aggregates, the clustered phase-separated bitumen significantly raises
the stiffness of the mixture, causing embrittlement. It can also be noted
that 2% of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures also have deep rut depth among
the modified mixture, which may be ascribed to the POCF weaker
impact on the bitumen at the lower dosage, which results in inadequate
stiffness of the bitumen. The 6% POCF dosage can be deemed as optimal
for improving the performance of the asphalt mixture against rutting
compared to other modified mixtures. Because it provides enough

Table 7
ANOVA by RSM for the optimization of stiffness modulus and rut depth for POCF-MB asphalt mixtures.
Source Sum of squares dof Mean square F-value p-value Observation

Stiffness modulus (MPa)

Model 6.669E + 06 5 1.334E + 06 100.48 < 0.0001 significant
A-POCF dosage 1.394E + 05 1 1.394E + 05 10.50 0.0089
B-Temperature 6.102E + 06 1 6.102E + 06 459.69 < 0.0001
AB 19.10 1 19.10 0.0014 0.9705
A2 4.322E + 05 1 4.322E + 05 32.56 0.0002
B2 1.138E + 05 1 1.138E + 05 8.57 0.0151
Residual 1.327E + 05 10 13274.26
Lack of fit 1.319E + 05 5 26380.02 156.56 < 0.0001 significant
Pure error 842.50 5 168.50
Cor. Total 6.802E + 06 15
Model type Quadratic
‘
Rut depth (mm)
Model 1.54 5 0.3073 59.91 < 0.0001 significant
A-POCF dosage 0.5065 1 0.5065 98.72 < 0.0001
B-Temperature 0.4791 1 0.4791 93.38 < 0.0001
AB 0.0029 1 0.0029 0.5659 0.4692
A2 0.5981 1 0.5981 116.59 < 0.0001
B2 0.0517 1 0.0517 10.09 0.0099
Residual 0.0513 10 0.0051
Lack of fit 0.0374 5 0.0075 2.70 0.1499 insignificant
Pure error 0.0139 5 0.0028
Cor. total 1.59 15
Model type Quadratic

df: degree of freedom, F-values: Fisher-statistical test values, p-values: probability values, LoF: lack of fit.

9
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 8 effect between the POCF and temperatures so they cannot be eliminated
Regression analysis values for the responses. in the model. The variables AB might not be statically significant, but
Statistical Response’s Comment they are experimental influencing the response output of the model.
analysis value Thus, it is encouraged to retain the AB variable that has a strong theo­
Stiffness Rut depth retical justification even if is statistically insignificant. Also, the
modulus (MPa) (mm)
quadratic terms A2 and B2 can force to be removed from the equation
Standard 115.21 0.0716 The models are significant for because it can cause some issues with the analysis which can make the
deviation navigation around the design model non-orthogonal and that can cause some problems during
Mean 1579.00 3.64 space
correlation 0.9805 0.9677
modeling which can cause the model to become ’non-hierarchical.
coefficient Moreover, the F-test for lack of fit (LoF) was used to assess the model’s
(R2) adequacy. LoF is a measure of the variance of the data in the model. The
Adj.R2 0.9707 0.9515 probability value of the LoF was 0.00001, suggesting that the model LoF
Pred.R2 0.9515 0.9249 was significant. Although the LoF was significant, the predicted and
Adequate. 31.1084 28.8542 adjusted coefficient of determination were in strong agreement, and the
precision suggested model may be utilized to explore the design space to discover
Coefficient of 7.30 1.97
an optimal situation [7,33]. There is further evidence that stiffness
variance
modulus reaction was influenced more by a higher test temperature (A)
with an F-value of 459.69 than POCF dosage (B) with an F-value of
density to support loads at high temperatures and displays maximum 10.50. Eq.5 present a statistical model equation that has been developed
stability to resist rutting. This could also be attributed to the significant to predict the stiffness modulus for the POCF-MB asphalt Mixture
interfacial forces between POCF and the bitumen blend, as the modified
Stiffnessmodulus= +1587.67+145.74A− 833.33B+2.28AB− 380.13A2
bitumen bonded strongly and adhered strongly. Since the bitumen and (5)
aggregates were better bonded, this will enhance the performance of the +171.47B2
asphalt mixture. This finding is in line with a study utilizing coconut
Here A and B represent the POCF dosage and test temperature.
shell ash as a modifier [50].
3.6.2. POCF-MB asphalt mixtures rutting depth response
3.6. RSM statistical modeling
One of the most prevalent pavement problems is rutting, which re­
duces road user comfort and increases maintenance expenses. As a result
3.6.1. POCF-MB asphalt mixtures stiffness modulus response
of traffic loads, flexible pavements respond in a variety of ways to in­
The stiffness modulus test can be used to evaluate the performance of
ternal pressures that develop. Rutting is a term used to describe a
asphalt mixes. The greater the stiffness modulus, the better the perfor­
pavement’s permanent deformation. Pavements are more prone to
mance of the asphalt mixture. However, the mixture’s elasticity de­
rutting in hotter climes and hotter seasons than in cooler ones. In
creases with increasing stiffness modulus. In addition, the stiffness
addition, areas with a higher concentration of traffic are more prone to
modulus is considered as the major input in the mechanistic-empirical
rutting. Simulator testing utilizing a wheel tracking device is utilized for
pavement design (MEPD) technique. The stiffness modulus is used to
the tests [7]. The depth of rutting in pavements is mostly determined by
quantify horizontal and vertical strains in asphalt layers and subgrades
the stiffness of the asphalt mixture. For the rutting response surface
which may be used to measure the stiffness of asphalt mixture under
quadratic model, the ANOVA analysis is shown in Table 8.
various environmental circumstances [7]. Based on the CCD-RSM, this
The rutting response of the POCF-MB asphalt mixture had a signifi­
study investigated the influences of variables (POCF dosage and testing
cant p-value < 0.0001 and a higher F-value of 59.91. The p-value < 0.05
temperature) and optimize and predicted the stiffness modulus of POCF-
for the model showed that there was only a 0.01 percent chance that an
MB asphalt mixtures. After the RSM software regression analysis, a fitted
F-value of this size would come from noise. Analyze the model’s
quadratic polynomial model to predict the stiffness of the POCF-MB
importance. A confidence interval of 95 percent was chosen to evaluate
asphalt mixture was generated. Based on the highest order polynomial
the model’s significance. All models were determined based on the
in which extra terms are significant and are not aliased by the software,
highest level at which the extra variables were required and were non-
the model was chosen for this study. For the response surface quadratic
aliased by the RSM program. probability > F-values were<0.05 for
stiffness modulus and rutting model, the ANOVA results are shown in
the model variables A, B, A2, and B2 suggesting that these terms were
Table 7.
critical to the modified asphalt mixture’s rutting value. Whereas the
The POCF-MB asphalt mixtures stiffness modulus response exhibited
other term AB was irrelevant since its p-value was higher than 0.05.
a significant p-value of<0.0001 and a higher F-value of 100.48. For the
Generally, we eliminate variables from a model that is not significant
model, the p-values were < 0.05, which meant that there was only a 0.01
only if they are not part of a term that is significant. However, since A2
percent chance that an F-value of this intensity would occur due to
and B2 are significant. So, we can’t remove A and B, because they are
random noise. To evaluate the model’s significance the 95% confidence
used in the quadratic terms A2 and B2. Because if we force to remove it.
interval was used. All models were determined based on the highest
This can cause some issues with the analysis. It can make the model non-
level at which the extra variables were required and were non aliased by
orthogonal and that can cause some problems during modeling which
the RSM program prob > F values of<0.05 were found for the model
can cause the model to become ’non-hierarchical. Also, LoF was per­
variables A, B, A2, and B2, indicating that the terms were relevant to the
formed to identify with the model, it was shown that there was a cor­
stiffness modulus of the modified asphalt mixture., whereas the other
relation between the residual errors and the pure errors in the duplicated
term AB was irrelevant since its p-value was higher than 0.05. This
design point, with p-values of 0.1499. Further, the analysis shows that
means all the variables were important for the stiffness modulus of the
both the test temperature (A) with an F-value of 93.38 and POCF dosage
POCF-MB asphalt mixture, whereas the other variable AB was negligible
(B) with an F-value of 98.72 had a significant influence on the rutting
because its p-value was>0.05. The non-significant p-value suggested
response for this study. Eq.6 shows the statistical model developed to
that the model parameter AB did not substantially impact POCF-MB
predict the rutting model equation for the POCF-MB asphalt mixture.
asphalt mixtures stiffness modulus. From the mathematical models
suggested by the RSM software. Even though AB is an insignificant term, Rutdepthresponse = +3.25− 0.2531A+0.2339B− 0.0253AB+0.5194A2
but they are kept in the model to maintain the hierarchy of the model (6)
+0.1362B2
terms obtained by ANOVA. Furthermore, the term AB is the interaction

10
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
Fig.10. Diagnostic plots for (a and b) stiffness modulus and (c and d) rutting model adequacy.
Where A and B represent the POCF dosage and test temperature.
3.6.3. RSM ANOVA, model selection and verification
The model RSM ANOVA is shown in Table 8, the adj R2 values for
stiffness modulus and rutting response are 0.9707 and 0.9515 respec­
tively. Likewise, the pred.R2 values are 0.9515 and 0.9249 respectively.
The analysis showed that the two are in good agreement indicating the
models’ validity since the disparity is < 0.2 which shows excellent
model predictability. The high R2 values, approaching unity suggested
that the quadratic models had been suitably adjusted to the actual data.
Adequate precision (AP) was used to evaluate the models’ signal-to-
noise ratio of the model. AP values > 4 are preferable, as they ensure
that all models created can be used to explore the design region. The AP
values for stiffness modulus and rutting response are 31.1084 and
28.8542 respectively, which shows that the model is appropriate, suf­
ficient, and effective for traversing the design space.
Furthermore, the standard deviation (SD) for the model was
considerably smaller than the obtained mean values, indicating the
11
Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
suitability and sufficiency of variance analysis. The smaller the standard
deviation of the produced model is with its mean, the lower its variance
to the test data which means experimentation results will produce less
uncertainty for the model. Based on the foregoing analysis, it can be
concluded that the generated model is desired, suitable, and effective for
modeling, optimization, and prediction of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures
stiffness modulus and rutting response.
3.6.4. Predicted vs actual diagnostic plots for the responses
Fig. 10a shows the probability plot of the stiffness modulus. From the
figure, a close alignment between the residual points and a straight line
was observed which reveals the effectiveness of the regression models
since the data fell within the equality line. Fig. 10b shows the predicted
and the actual laboratory findings, which were used to evaluate the
model’s fitness and correctness. According to the symmetrical distri­
bution of data points around the 45◦ line, stiffness modulus was properly
predicted by the model since it matched the real laboratory data nicely.
Fig. 10c shows the normal percentage for the rutting response model
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Fig. 11. 2-D and 3-D RSM surface showing the stimulatory influence of POCF dose and temperature on stiffness modulus.

Fig. 12. 2-D and 3-D RSM surface showing the stimulatory influence of POCF dose and temperature on rutting response.

satisfactorily using the output model developed. The plots show a pos­
Table 9
itive correlation between predicted and observed results because all
Stiffness modulus response optimization constraints.
points are within the equality line [19].
Factors/Responses Lower and upper Goal Weight Importance
limits
3.6.5. Influence of synergistic variables on stiffness modulus response
POCF dosage (%) 0–8 In range 1 3 The 2D and 3D response plot contours were generated from the CCD-
Test temperature 10–40 In range 1 3
RSM to demonstrate the interaction between factors and responses and
(◦ C)
Stiffness modulus 419–2795 Maximize 1 3 to explain the influence of input variables on the output response. For
(MPa) each model, the factors (POCF dosage and test temperature) were drawn
on the X and Y-axes, while the response (stiffness modulus) was drawn
on the Z-axis. Fig. 11 (a and b) shows the 2D and 3D response plot
vs externally studentized residuals. It should also be observed that the contour of the model and it was observed to have a great synergetic
normal plot of residuals was suitable, as most of the response nodes were effect between the input variables. The model contour lines were found
along the straight line. Fig. 10d shows the predicted vs observed rutting to be semi-elliptical in form, showing a significant interaction between
response plot for the generated model, it was observed that the rutting the POCF dosage and test temperature. The contour plot’s colour in­
response of the POCF-MB asphalt mixture was calculated accurately and dicates response values, with blue to green to reddish indicating a lower

12
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Fig. 13. (a) Numerical ramp for stiffness modulus response optimization (b) desirability 3D contour.

stiffness modulus value is indicated as the reddish-yellow region. While

Table 10 the vivid blue region of the response surface plot signified an area with
Rutting response optimization constraints. minimal influence on stiffness modulus value, it was observed that the
Factors/Responses Lower and upper Goal Weight Importance optimal stiffness modulus region was at about test temperature
limits 10–14 ◦ C, and 2.5–7.5% POCF dosage at which stiffness modulus value
POCF dosage (%) 0–8 In range 1 5 was higher with various levels of input variables. The higher stiffness
Test temperature 10–40 In range 1 3 modulus of the modified mixtures is due to the significant interaction
(◦ C) between bitumen and aggregate, POCF-MB asphalt mixes have higher
Rut depth (mm) 3.091–4.392 Minimize 1 3
stiffness. Additional increases in stiffness can be attributed to the POCF-
MB improved adhesion, which allows the modified bitumen and
to medium to a more optimized interaction region [19,29]. aggregate particles to interact effectively. Generally, the response sur­
The response surface plot revealed test temperature has a significant face plot indicates that the stiffness modulus value of the POCF-MB
influence on the stiffness modulus compared to POCF dosage as that the asphalt mixtures was more responsive to temperature variations
stiffness modulus value substantiality reduced as the test temperature compared to the POCF dosage, as seen in the Figure. As the testing
was increased while it marginally increases with the POCF dosage. Also, temperature is from 10 to 40 ◦ C, the stiffness modulus values consid­
on the response surface plot, the optimal output area with the greatest erably reduce. However, at lower temperatures, the POCF dosage had a
greater impact on the mixture stiffness. There is a possibility that this

Fig. 14. (a) Numerical ramps for rutting response optimization (b) desirability 3D contour.

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N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 11 phenomenon is caused by the bitumen temperature-sensitive charac­

ANN optimized architecture for the prediction of stiffness modulus and rutting teristics, which played a crucial role in the mixture’s characteristics
response. Also, as ambient temperature increases, the bitumen becomes more
No. Architectures Stiffness modulus (MPa) Rut depth (mm) viscous which eventually contributes to a reduction in the asphalt
R2 RMSE R2 RMSE mixtures stiffness.
1 [3] 0.9924 56.0997 0.7976 0.1480
2 [4] 0.9942 45.3257 0.9678 0.0507 3.6.6. Influence of synergistic variables on rutting depth response
3 [5] 0.9922 60.5327 0.9710 0.0468 The effects of POCF dosage and test temperature on rutting response
4 [6] 0.9998 7.8541 0.9933 0.0232
2D and 3D, are illustrated in Fig. 12 (a and b). The oval contour shape of
5 [7] 0.9981 21.0947 0.5398 0.1737
6 [8] 0.9949 39.8992 0.9657 0.0364 response surface diagnostic plots indicates adequate synergetic inter­
7 [9] 0.9999 1.38915 0.9271 0.0787 action between the independent metrics [19,29]. This shows that both
8 [10] 0.9974 27.3771 0.9665 0.0407 POCF dosage and test temperature have a great influence on rutting
response, as the rutting values first decrease from about 2 to 6% of the
POCF dosage due to improved densification of the mixtures and subse­
quently increase at 8%. As the test temperature was increased from
45 ◦ C to 60 ◦ C, the rut depth also increases. Moreover, the rutting op­
timum (lowest) region was observed around 3 to 6.5% POCF dosage and
test temperature of around 45–53 ◦ C.
From the 3D contour plots, it was observed that the two input factors,
(POCF dosage and test temperature) have a synergetic influence on the
rutting response as the test temperature from 45 to 60 ◦ C significantly
affects the rut depth. However, for the POCF dosage, substantial resis­
tance to rutting of the modified asphalt mixture was observed at around
the POCF dosage of 4–6%. This can be attributed to the enhanced
viscoelasticity and stiffness of the POCF-MB which may lead to a better
aggregate covering with a well-connected aggregate bitumen matrix
which makes it more resistant to rutting. The slight increase in rut depth
at 8% is when a large dose of POCF is mixed into bitumen, it forms a
highly viscous blend that is unable to effectively cover the aggregates;
the clustering phase-separated bitumen greatly improves the modified
mixture stiffness, producing embrittlement thus increasing the rut
depth.
Fig. 15. ANN architecture for the POCF-MB asphalt mixtures stiffness
modulus response.
3.6.7. RSM-developed models multi-objective optimization and validation
The multi-objective optimization, the globally optimum testing
temperature, and POCF dosage were assessed to validate the created
predictive performance of the model generated. A scale-free value (di)
termed desirability, with limits from 0 (inferior) to 1(ideal scenario), is
calculated by analyzing the predicted reaction and comparing it to the
model’s lower and upper bounds [19]. There is a dot on each ramp to
indicate the desired objective for variables and response behavior. The
recommended optimal proportions were tested three times, and the
average experiment findings were utilized. Optimal predicted values
and laboratory values were compared to estimate the error rate (% of
error) and the model predictability was evaluated and examined
employing absolute relative percentage error (ARPE), as shown in Eq.7.
⃒ ⃒
⃒Experimentalvalue − Modelvalue⃒
Absoluterelativepercentageerror(%) = ⃒⃒ ⃒
⃒
Experimentalvalue
× 100
(7)
For the stiffness modulus, Table 9 shows the desired goals and limits
of the optimization, whereas Fig. 13a shows the optimal values of the
Fig. 16. ANN architecture for the POCF-MB asphalt mixtures rutting
independent factors and the maximum predictable responses. While
depth response.
Fig. 13b shows the model 3D desirability having a level of 0.879, the
optimum POCF dosage and test temperature were estimated to be 4.7%
Table 12 and 10 ◦ C respectively.
ANN optimization criteria. After optimization, a verification test was conducted to validate the
design mixture’s optimal mixing proportions accuracy, a new series of
Factors/Responses Lower and upper limits Goal Importance
laboratory tests were conducted by utilizing the optimized RSM input
POCF dosage (%) 0–8 In range 1 variables. As a result, three specimens for the test parameter were pre­
Mixing temperature (◦ C) 10–40 In range 1
Stiffness modulus (MPa) 419–2795 Maximize 1
pared, and the average value was observed and recorded and the pre­
Rut depth (mm) 3.091–4.392 Minimize 1 dicted stiffness modulus of the POCF-MB asphalt mixture was
determined to be 2605.95 MPa, while the experimental stiffness
modulus at the globalized optimal input values was measured to be

14
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
Fig. 17. ANN stiffness modulus response parity graph of actual and predicted values for (a) training (b) validation (c) testing and (d) prediction optimization profiler.
2693 MPa. By calculating ARPE between the experimental value and
optimum predicted was determined to be 3.23%. The absolute percent
discrepancy between the actual and predicted value of the stiffness
modulus response was shown to be very minimal, with the allowable
range of < 5 %. This shows that the response can be effective and
accurately predict using the developed model.
For the rutting response, the optimum solution was determined using
a multi-objective optimization technique based on RSM. POCF-MB
asphalt mixtures were optimized based on optimal rutting perfor­
mance, with the primary aim being to determine the optimal combina­
tion of POCF dosage and test temperature to use. Based on the study
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Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
limits, all parameters were set to exploit all possible solutions and
optimize the outcomes. For the input factors and responses, the opti­
mization criteria are presented in Table 10 and the numerical solution
ramp for the response rutting is presented in Fig. 14a.
As illustrated in Fig. 14b the optimal solution showed high desir­
ability of 0.977. Based on the RSM analysis ramps for the POCF-MB
asphalt mixtures the optimum rutting can be obtained by utilizing
4.89% POCF dosage at a testing temperature of 46.2 ◦ C to obtain a
minimum rutting depth of 3.12 mm. To confirm the reliability of the
optimization findings acquired by the RSM model, an extra run of ex­
periments tests was conducted by utilizing the optimized limits of input
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
Fig. 18. ANN rutting response parity graph of actual and predicted values for (a) training, (b) validation, (c) testing, and (d) prediction optimization profiler.
factors. Three samples were used, and their average value was evaluated
and reported. The rutting depth response was examined, and the find­
ings were compared to the predicted. By evaluating the ARPE between
the experimental and predicted values as shown in Eq. (7) above. Using
the optimum globalized POCF dosage and test temperature, the exper­
imental rutting was evaluated to be 3.24 mm. Based on computed ARPE
it was calculated to be 3.70% still less than the allowable limit of < 5%,
the experimental result shows excellent correlation with the RSM pre­
dicted value.
3.7. Artificial neural network modeling
The most essential phases in building an ANN network with high
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Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
efficiency and low errors are determining the best input combination,
network architecture, and model ambiguity [45]. It was therefore
necessary to use the RSM data to model and optimize the ANN design
matrix to identify the optimal parameter combination. To improve the
ANN prediction model, the collected data from the RSM-CCD optimi­
zation were utilized for the training, testing, and validation. In this
study, the performance properties of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures were
determined using the neural network. Test temperature and POCF
dosage were chosen as input factors. The output variables stiffness
modulus and rutting were determined independently because of the
wide variety of test conditions. To explicate complex system modeling
and identification, the feedforward back-propagation network type is
commonly employed [7,46]. As a result, the number of neurons in the
N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 13
Comparison of RSM and ANN prediction performances for stiffness modulus response.
Exp. run(mix) Actual stiffness (MPa) RSM ANN
Predictedstiffness(MPa) Absolute percentage error (%) Predicted stiffness(MPa) Absolute percentage error (%)

1 1612 1590.47 1.336 1596.276 0.975

2 1594 1591.7 0.144 1602.139 0.511
3 2302 2438.8 5.943 2302.088 0.004
4 1628 1592.35 2.190 1599.325 1.761
5 2294 2389.61 4.168 2296.982 0.130
6 1598 1590.47 0.471 1593.841 0.260
7 1076 1051.1 2.314 1076.504 0.047
8 1298 1353 4.237 1312.984 1.154
9 2494 2616.61 4.916 2658.175 6.583
10 2895 2600.2 6.970 2395.612 0.022
11 2127 2066.77 2.832 2126.815 0.009
12 419 413.14 1.399 418.9866 0.003
13 1313 1355 3.199 1312.984 0.001
14 978 897.046 8.278 979.389 0.142
15 752 923.71 9.536 752.1638 0.022
16 984 877.12 10.862 979.389 0.469

Table 14
Comparison of RSM and ANN prediction performances for rutting response.
Exp. run Actualrut depth (MPa) RSM ANN
Predictedstiffness(MPa) Absolute percentage error (%) Predicted stiffness(MPa) Absolute percentage error (%)

1 3.492 3.54259 0.091 3.942 0.805

2 3.631 3.55558 0.130 3.631 0.000
3 4.392 3.90472 0.693 4.392 0.000
4 3.641 3.60129 0.068 3.5875 0.092
5 3.569 3.60215 0.058 3.5881 0.033
6 4.094 3.6829 0.628 4.0940 0.000
7 3.892 3.51034 0.613 3.89200 0.000
8 3.412 3.39364 0.034 3.317231 0.174
9 3.437 3.43418 0.005 3.487944 0.093
10 4.014 3.70405 0.483 4.01400 0.000
11 3.216 3.14988 0.128 3.068173 0.287
12 3.621 3.54294 0.135 3.4920 0.223
13 3.542 3.43692 0.185 3.5875 0.080
14 3.598 3.43714 0.279 3.5883 0.017
15 3.091 3.16584 0.151 3.1942 0.209
16 3.649 3.55568 0.160 3.631 0.031

Fig. 19. Comparison between RSM and ANN models predictions values with the actual mean values for (a) stiffness modulus (b) rutting response.

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N.S.A. Yaro et al. Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618

Table 15
Assessment of model statistical performance index metric of RSM and ANN.
Responses Statistical performance index metrics.
R2 MRE RMSE
RSM ANN RSM ANN RSM
Stiffness modulus 99.700 99.972 68.793 12.093 266.091
(MPa)
Rut depth (mm) 99.668 99.880 3.841 2.044 0.597
hidden layer of the ANN was varied to get the optimal network design.
From the statistical analysis, the highest R2 values for the stiffness
modulus and rutting response are 0.9999 and 0.9933 respectively. While
the least RMSE value for stiffness modulus and rutting response are
1.38915 and 0.0232 respectively. For both responses, three structural
layers with 2–9-1 (stiffness modulus) and 2–6-1(rutting) topology were
observed to be the best as shown in Table 11 which also shows the
respective statistical values of the various architectural neurons utilized.
For this study, as shown in Figs. 15 and 16 the first layer has two
input neurons (POCF dosage and test temperature), The second layer
indicated the hidden neurons with nine (stiffness modulus) and six
(rutting) neurons, and the third layer is the predicted response for POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures performance properties with respectively two
neurons (stiffness modulus and rutting).
In this study, the ANN optimizer tools were utilized for the optimi­
zation of the various responses. The major aims to maintain good stiff­
ness modulus while simultaneously reducing the rut depth within the
given range of POCF dosage and test temperature. Tables 12 show the
desired goal parameters for the optimization setup.
Fig. 17 (a to c) shows the graph for all input and output variables for
the stiffness modulus that compares the test data to the ANN data for
predictions of the model. There is a strong correlation between the ANN
model’s predictions and the actual results. The stiffness modulus had R2
values of 0.9999, 0.9761, and 0.9962, training, validation, and testing
and Fig. 17d shows the ANN profiler for the model optimization.
Also, the rutting depth response scatter plots are shown in Fig. 18 (a
to c) a strong relationship between the predicted and actual values with
R2 were 0.9933, 0.9664, and 0.9970 for training, validation, and testing
were observed respectively. According to the scatter plot, ANN shows
high-accuracy results when modeling the variable. Almost all values
were dispersed along the 45◦ line, which is an indication of excellent
compatibility between the ANN projected values and the test results.
Also, the R2 between the test and ANN-predicted outputs showed that
the employed ANN model trained with the test data was effective in
forecasting the POCF-MB asphalt mixtures stiffness modulus and rutting
depth. While Fig. 18d shows the prediction optimization profiler for the
rutting response.
ANN
3.8. Comparative evaluation of RSM and ANN models performances
61.605
0.280 Recently, the modeling and process optimization approach based on
CCD-RSM and ANN is very effective and popular among various re­
searchers [7,27,45,46]. In this study, CCD-RSM and ANN techniques
were used to forecast the stiffness modulus and rutting depth of POCF-
MB asphalt mixtures. CCD-RSM and ANN models were compared to
determine the accuracy of the predictions of the statistical models, by
assessing the relationship between the actual and predicted values and
evaluating their respective ARPE. Table 13 and Table 14 show the actual
and projected outcomes and their respective ARPE for both stiffness
modulus and rutting response.
Also, data from the CCD-RSM and ANN models were compared to
mean actual data in Fig. 19. to determine the correctness of the models.
Plots were made between each value and the number of runs, the model
predicted values that were closely related to the observed values. In
comparison to the RSM model, ANN model predictions have a better
match to the actual data. Thus, the ANN model is better capable of
generalizing data than the RSM model.
From the study, ANN models were observed to be slightly flawless in
predicting the responses. The ANN was able to accurately predict the
experimental outcomes and validate them for each data combination
utilized for the stiffness modulus and rutting response. Furthermore, the
CCD-RSM and ANN models were compared based on the R2, MRE, and
RMSE to see if the models were adequate. The high correlation between
these numbers confirms that the developed models are suitable for
replicating actual results. Generally, a model with R2 values closer to
unity (1) suggests that it can predict more effectively, better, and more
accurately the predicted responses. Table 15 demonstrate both CCD-
RSM and ANN models are statistically significant and have high per­
formance predicted values compared to experimental findings.
The ANN model R2 values are higher compared to RSM. The ANN
has R2 (0.9997 and 0.9988) and MRE (12.093 and 2.044) whereas RSM
has R2 (0.9970 and 0.9967) and MRE (68.793 and 3.841) for stiffness
and rutting response respectively. Also, a comparison was made in terms
of errors (RMSE) from each model. It was observed that ANN prediction
has shown less divergence (lower RMSE) from the actual responses than
RSM. ANN’s superiority in prediction is due to its ability to imitate
human intelligence by learning patterns in datasets [7,45,46] and it can

Table 16
ANN and RSM model validation data set for stiffness modulus.
Run POCF dosage (%) Temperature(◦ C) Stiffness modulus (MPa)
Experimental Predictive model values
ANN APE RSM APE

1 1.5 15 1956.8 1977.30 1.048 1980.81 1.227

2 3.5 25 1597.2 1609.12 0.746 1563.51 2.109
3 9.0 25 1199.0 1211.32 1.028 1175.88 1.928
4 4.5 55 635.42 643.19 1.223 619.720 2.471
5 9.5 5 2389.5 2412.9 0.979 2481.12 3.834

Table 17
ANN and RSM model validation data set for rutting depth.
Run POCF dosage (%) Temperature(◦ C) Rutting depth (mm)
Experimental Predictive model values
ANN APE RSM APE

1 3.5 50 3.356 3.298 1.728 3.223 3.960

2 1.5 35 3.871 3.911 1.033 3.767 2.686
3 2.5 40 3.286 3.350 1.947 3.388 3.104
4 5.5 50 3.085 3.032 1.719 3.166 4.420
5 4.5 65 4.191 4.095 2.291 4.021 4.056

18
N.S.A. Yaro et al.
generalize the nonlinear correlation between actual and predicted
outcomes.
3.9. Model prediction validation
The predictive models’ performance was assessed using statistical
measures such as R2, MRE, and RMSE. Table 15 shows that the ANN
model suited the experimental result better than RSM, as evidenced by
the estimated values of R2, MRE, and RMSE. Thus, a validation test was
conducted to reverify and validate the predictive model if they are ac­
curate. To assess the performance of both models, we evaluated both
models with a completely new series of laboratory tests to determine
how effective they were. As a result, five (5) new combinations different
from the data sets that were utilized in model development was used
with three specimens for each of the new combination were prepared,
and the average value was observed and recorded, and the predicted
stiffness modulus and rutting depth of the POCF-MB asphalt mixture was
determined. Table 16 shows the experimental and predictive values of
stiffness modulus, while Table 17 shows the experimental and predicted
values for the unknown (new) data set for rutting depth. For the stiffness
modulus, the R2 for the new data set for the ANN and RSM models is
0.998 and 0.993, respectively, while the average error percentage is
1.01 and 2.31. While for the rutting model, the R2 for the new data set
for the ANN and RSM models is 0.997 and 0.995, respectively, while the
average error percentage is 1.74 and 3.65. The absolute percent
discrepancy between the experimental and predicted value of the stiff­
ness modulus and rutting response was observed to be minimal, within
the allowable range of < 5%. This shows and verifies that the developed
model is effective and accurate for the prediction of POCF-MB asphalt
mixture stiffness modulus and rutting properties.
In comparison to the RSM model, ANN has a greater potential for
applicability. The capacity to simulate a wide collection of non-linear
polynomials, as opposed to RSM’s ability to capture just quadratic ap­
proximations, is the rationale for its superior performance.
4. Conclusion
In this paper, the viability of utilizing POCF as a bitumen modifier in
densely graded asphalt mixture (AC14) was assessed and the effects of
the POCF dosage and test temperature on the POCF-MB asphalt mixtures
performance properties (stiffness modulus and rutting) were analyzed
using CCD-RSM and ANN models. The following are the major conclu­
sions derived from the experimental and computational modeling work:
1. From the POCF-MB samples microstructural analysis, the FTIR
spectra reveal asymmetric stretching vibrations of Si-O-Si caused by
POCF inclusion. Also, the XRD results showed to improve the inter­
action between the POCF and the bitumen mix, with silica traces, and
a distinct peak appearing. The modification stiffens the bitumen
blend by reducing penetration and ductility whereas softening point
was increased.
2. The utilization of POCF as a bitumen modifier into asphalt mixtures
causes improvement in the VFB which describes good binding and
better aggregate bonding that gives better stability. It was further
observed that POCF-MB increase mixtures bulk specific gravity
which causes a decrease in air voids in the POCF-MB mixtures.
3. The POCF-MB asphalt mixtures show improved stiffness and rutting
resistance compared to control mixtures. The considerable
improvement in stiffness and rutting resistance of the modified mixes
could be attributed to greater POCF-bitumen mastic bonding which
improves mixtures performance. It was observed that 6% POCF leads
to optimum mechanical improvement of the POCF-MB asphalt
mixtures.
4. From the optimization and prediction, the CCD-RSM and ANN have
been shown to be useful tools. The stiffness modulus and rutting
properties were influenced by both input factors. However, the
19
Construction and Building Materials 324 (2022) 126618
temperature variations have a greater influence on the POCF-MB
asphalt mixtures stiffness. Both models accurately forecast stiffness
modulus and rutting of POCF-MB asphalt mixtures. However, the
predictive models’ statistical comparison shows that the ANN models
are more effective with the highest R2 and minimal prediction errors
(RMSE and MRE) compared to the RSM model.
5. The study shows that the problem of POC landfilling can be allevi­
ated by using it as a bitumen modifier if the mixture design and POCF
dosage are properly controlled, it can improve asphalt mixture me­
chanical properties. Also, the combined RSM-ANN model shows
more efficiency, accuracy, and reduced trial batches time as well as
destructive experiments that result in extra wastage of materials.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Nura Shehu Aliyu Yaro: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal
analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Writing – original draft.
Muslich Hartadi Sutanto: Project administration, Resources, Supervi­
sion. Noor Zainab Habib: Project administration, Resources, Supervi­
sion. Madzlan Napiah: Project administration, Resources, Supervision.
Aliyu Usman: Software, Validation, Visualization. Ashiru Muham­
mad: Writing – review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge University Teknologi Petronas
(UTP) which provided financial and laboratory facilities to perform this
study.
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