Percentage of

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 energy mix
non-fossil

2032 100%
Peak primary
energy supply
2035
Peak final

ENERGY TRANSITION TIMELINE energy

demand
90%

Highlights of our forecast energy transition to

2050. The green slope represents the share of
80%
non-fossil energy sources in the energy mix.

Energy peaks
50% of the
2034 energy mix
70%
Non-fossil share Natural gas
peaks
is non-fossil
Energy transitions 2039
2023 Manufacturing energy
Oil peaks demand peaks
Energy milestones 60%

2033
Nuclear 50%
2014 peaks
Coal 2026
peaked Transport energy
demand peaks 2047
Heavy electric vehicles start
40%
to outnumber ICE heavy
vehicles on the road
2042
Half of the world’s fleet of
road vehicles - light and
heavy - is electric 30%
19% of the
2033
energy mix Half of all light vehicle
is non-fossil sales electric

20%
2024
2038 2044 2049
Light EVs reach cost parity with
Wind supply Solar PV overtakes Solar PV overtakes
internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles 2031 x10 more biomass in primary oil in primary energy
Wind over- than 2016 energy
takes hydro
10%
2023 2026 2028 2034 2035 2040 2044 2048
PV install- Gas over- 95% of world Non-fossil World grid PV install- Non-fossil expend- World grid
ations takes oil population has capex overtakes capacity doubles ations 10TW itures overtake capacity triples
1TW electricity access fossil capex from 2016 fossil expenditures from 2016
0%

2023 2035 2038 2042

Seaborne container Maritime energy Seaborne gas Half of mari-
trade exceeds demand peaks trade exceeds time energy
crude oil trade coal trade use is non-oil

©DNV GL