Launch Mission Execution Forecast

Mission: Falcon 9 Starlink 6-11

Issued: 23 Aug 2023 / 1200L (1600Z)
Valid: 25 Aug 2023 / 2113 – 2330L (26/0113 – 0330Z)

Forecast Discussion: A weak boundary will make its way southward across the peninsula today bringing slightly
elevated shower chances, especially during the evening hours. Otherwise, unseasonably dry weather will be dominant
through the early part of next week as high pressure will remain in place across the southeastern U.S. Easterly flow will
be persistent, so isolated onshore moving showers cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the primary concern during the
launch window will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule. For the backup day, onshore flow shifts southeasterly as moisture will
be slow to return, bringing only slightly higher chances of violating the Cumulus Cloud Rule during the window.

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints1

10%
Launch Day

Primary Concerns: Cumulus Cloud Rule

Weather Conditions Additional Risk Criteria2

Clouds
Weather/Visibility: Isold Showers / 7 mi. Upper-Level Wind Shear: Low
Type Coverage Base (ft) Tops (ft)

Temp/Humidity: 82°F / 75% Cumulus Scattered 2,500 6,000 Booster Recovery Weather: Low

Liftoff Winds (200’): 070° 10 - 15 mph Solar Activity: Low

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints

24-Hour Delay

15% Primary Concerns: Cumulus Cloud Rule

Weather Conditions Additional Risk Criteria

Clouds
Weather/Visibility: Isold Showers / 7 mi. Upper-Level Wind Shear: Low
Type Coverage Base (ft) Tops (ft)

Temp/Humidity: 82°F / 80% Cumulus Few 2,500 8,000 Booster Recovery Weather: Low

Liftoff Winds (200’): 100° 12 - 18 mph Solar Activity: Low

1. The Probability of Violation (PoV) is the chance of a local safety or customer constraint violation occurring any random time during the launch window.
Notes

2. Additional Risk Criteria, which are not included in the PoV, are mission-specific constraints that may not include all phenomena within each risk factor.

See https://www.patrick.spaceforce.mil/Portals/14/Weather/LaunchFAQ.pdf for more information

Next Forecast Will Be Issued 24 Aug 23