Conditional Probability

One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout

the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in
the town. We shall be concerned with the following events:
M: a man is chosen,
E: the one chosen is employed.
 If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A), provided P(A) > 0.

Example 2.35
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both
fuses are defective?
Example 2.36
One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first
bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a
ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Example 2.36
One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first
bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a
ball now drawn from the second bag is black?

P[(B1 ∩ B2) or (W1 ∩ B2)] = P(B1 ∩ B2) + P(W1 ∩ B2)

= P(B1)P(B2|B1) + P(W1)P(B2|W1)
Problem 1:
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air
conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player.
20% of the cars have both. What is the probability
that a car has a CD player, given that it has AC ?
Problem 2:
Assume that each child who is born is equally
likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two
children, what is the probability that both are
girls given that
a) the eldest is a girl?
b) at least one is a girl?
Problem 3:
A box contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls. If 2
balls are drawn at random from the box without
replacement, find the probability that the first ball
is black and the second ball is white.
Problem 4:
A box contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls.
If 2 balls are drawn at random from the box
without replacement, find the probability that
one ball is white and another is black.
Problem 5:
A bag contains 5 white marbles, 3 black marbles
and 2 green marbles. In each draw, a marble is
drawn from the bag and not replaced. In three
draws, find the probability of obtaining a white, a
black and a green marble.
Problem 6:
A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens.
3 pens are drawn at random from the pack
without replacement. What is the probability of
drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
Problem 7:
Six cards are drawn 52 cards. What is
the probability that 3 will be red and 3
black?
Problem 8:
A bag contains 2 red, 3 green and 2 blue balls.
Two balls are drawn at random. What is the
probability that none of the balls drawn is
blue?
Problem 9:
From a box containing 6 black balls and 4 green
balls, 3 balls are drawn at random without
replacement. What is the probability that
a) all 3 are the same color?
b) each color is represented?
Problem 10:
If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf
containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, and a
dictionary, what is the probability that
a) the dictionary is selected?
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Problem 11:
Three dice are thrown. What is the probability
that the same number appears on exactly two of
the three dice?
Problem 12:
Four people each roll a fair die once. Find the
probability that at least two people will roll the
same number.
Example 2.38
An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in Figure
2.9. The system works if components A and B work and either of the
components C or D works. The reliability (probability of working) of
each component is also shown in Figure 2.9. Find the probability that
(a) the entire system works;
(b) the component C does not work, given that the entire system works.
Assume that the four components work independently.
Exercise 2.98
Suppose the diagram of an electrical system is as given in Figure
2.10. What is the probability that the system works? Assume the
components fail independently.
Exercise 2.99
A circuit system is given in Figure 2.11. Assume the components
fail independently.
1) What is the probability that the entire system works?
2) Given that the system works, what is the probability that the
component A is not working?