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Mauboussin Cashing Up
Mauboussin Cashing Up
Americas/United States
Investment Strategy
Equity Research
Cashing Up
The Dow’s Quality of Earnings
Weighted-Average Cash Flow as a Percentage of Operating Net Income
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
• Large companies continue to show a trend of improving cash flows. Cash flow
was 97% of operating net income for the DJIA companies in 2002, the highest
ratio in the past six years.
• Capital spending was down in 2002 for the second straight year, and we expect
very measured capital allocation for the foreseeable future.
• Debt levels were essentially flat in 2002, but the ratio of cash flow to debt
improved materially. This development, combined with lower interest rates,
suggests that the aggregate balance sheet for the DJIA has improved markedly
in the last two years.
research team • Working capital remained in check as well, which is no surprise given the
sluggish pace of economic growth.
Michael Mauboussin
212 325 3108
michael.mauboussin@csfb.com
Kristen Bartholdson
212 325 2788
kristen.bartholdson@csfb.com
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION relating to analyst certification, please refer to the Disclosure Section at the
end of the report. For important disclosure regarding the Firm's investment banking relationships, if any, with companies
mentioned in this report and regarding the Firm's rating system, valuation methods, and potential conflicts of interest,
please visit the website at www.csfb.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
Cashing Up 26 June 2003
Executive Summary
Intelligent investors have always looked past accounting numbers to focus on the true
cash-generating capabilities of a business. The income statement does not, and was
never meant to, establish the value of a business. Understanding a business requires a
thorough study of income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements.
Last year, we published a report that gauged the earnings quality of the companies in
the Dow Jones Industrial Average by reconciling their operating net income and cash
flows. Highlights of our analysis this year include:
• Cash flow was 97% of operating net income on a weighted basis for the DJIA
companies in 2002. This ratio is the highest in the past six years.
• Capital spending for these companies dipped 17%, to roughly $89 billion. This was
the second year in a row of declining capital spending. In fact, aggregate capital
spending (net of depreciation) for the U.S. reached its lowest level as a percentage of
GDP since the end of World War II.
• Debt levels rose modestly (industrial companies only). But the cash flow-to-debt ratio
jumped from 33% in 2001 to 40% in 2002. This, combined with lower interest rates,
suggests that large-company balance sheets are in solid shape for the most part.
• We anticipate that companies will increase their rate of investment, but that increases
in spending will be very measured. In the late 1990s, investors gave managers the
benefit of the doubt, assuming that they were judicious capital allocators. Today,
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
investors feel strongly that they can allocate capital more efficiently than managers
can, and hence, are demanding dividends and share repurchases. We sense that this
trend will persist for some time.
To gauge the quality of earnings, and the trend in earnings quality, we reconciled cash
flow and operating earnings for all the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) for each of the past six years. The DJIA companies comprise about one-third of
the market capitalization for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index. We define
cash flow as the difference between cash flow from operations and capital expenditures.
For 2002, the weighted-average cash flow-to-earnings ratio reached 97%. (See Exhibit
1.) Naturally, this average gives no indication of the range of results, which spanned
from a negative 405% (Hewlett-Packard) to a positive 686% (AT&T). Neither a high nor
a low cash flow ratio is necessarily desirable: The important question is why a
company’s ratio is where it is and what it suggests about future cash flow.
2
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Also noteworthy is the general trend in the cash flow-to-earnings ratio. Exhibit 2 shows
that 2002’s weighted and median ratios were the highest in the past half-decade. So
notwithstanding lingering concerns about accounting misrepresentations, the earnings
for the companies in the Dow seem to have relatively good, and generally improving,
correlations with cash flows.
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4
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Here are some of the primary reasons that earnings and cash flow diverge:
• Changes in working capital. Working capital equals current assets (less excess cash)
minus noninterest-bearing current liabilities. Inventories and account receivables are
typically the largest component of current assets, while accounts payable is often the
largest current liability item.
Companies typically need to grow working capital at a pace consistent with their
business’s growth. Investors can consider working capital increases as an investment
(cash outflow) to support business growth.
Mean -154%
* Indicates FY2003.
Source: Company data, CSFB estimates.
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* Indicates FY2003.
Source: Company data, CSFB estimates.
Capital expenditures for the Dow companies declined in 2002 for the second
consecutive year. (See Exhibit 4.) While we expect capital spending to pick up from
these deeply depressed levels (see Exhibit 5), we also expect that executives will
remain very measured in their capital spending. Whereas in the late 1990s investors
largely granted executives the benefit of the doubt with regard to capital allocation,
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
excess investment and subsequent poor returns have caused investors to demand
very tight standards for spending. As a result, we anticipate healthy levels of cash to
be available for dividends and share repurchases.
5%
4%
3%
2%
1% 2002 estimate
0%
1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
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The recent boom in employee stock options has also distorted the tax picture. Upon
exercise, an option’s intrinsic value becomes a tax deduction for the issuing
corporation. So in years of substantial option exercise, a company’s reported taxes
and the taxes it actually pays can be significantly different. For instance, Microsoft’s
stock option tax benefits were $1.596 billion in fiscal 2002, slicing over 40% off its
$3.684 billion reported tax provision.
• Employee stock options. ESOs represent a very real cost to firms, but accounting
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Exhibits 6-35 present the earnings and cash flow reconciliations for all the companies in
the DJIA for the most recent reported fiscal year. Please contact us if you would like any
of the data behind the six-year calculations.
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $20,263.0
Other income - net
Decrease in receivables 411.0
Reduction in deferred hedging gains 20,674.0 102.0%
Cost of revenue (16,247.0)
Decrease in inventories 202.0
Decrease in payables and accrued expenses (318.0)
Reduction in prepaid expenses and other current assets 36.0
Net change in noncurrent assets and liabilities (239.0)
Other 121.0 (16,445.0) 101.2%
Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses (1,147.0)
Research and development expenses (214.0) (1,361.0)
Depreciation and amortization (1,108.0)
Depreciation and amortization (cash flow impact) 1,116.0
Capital expenditures (1,270.0) (1,262.0) 113.9%
Special items (407.0)
Other items 179.0
Impairment of goodwill (44.0) 44.0
Interest Expense (350.0) (578.0)
Provision for taxes on income (292.0)
Change in deferred taxes (178.0)
Increase in taxes, including taxes on income (232.0) (702.0) 240.4%
Minority interests (135.0)
Dividends paid and return of capital to minority interests 135.0 non-cash
Loss from discontined operations (112.0) 112.0
Cummulative effect of accounting change 34.0 (34.0)
Cash used for discontinued operations (75.0)
Other operating cash items
Equity earnings before additional taxes, net of dividends (40.0)
Gains from investing activities sale of assets (52.0)
Provision for doubtful accounts 16.0
Book value of disposal assets 394.0 243.0
Reported Net Income 420.0
Operating Net Income 498.0
Cash Flow 569.0 114.3%
Employee stock option expense 113.0
Net Income with ESO expense 385.0
Pension expense (benefit) 35.0
Per share data:
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $80,408.0
Increase in accounts receivable (161.0) 80,247.0 99.8%
Cost of sales (32,748.0)
Increase in inventories 38.0
Decrease in accounts payable (640.0)
Accrued liabilities and other current assets 257.0
Other 86.0
Other (financial) (27.0) (33,034.0) 100.9%
Excise taxes on products (18,226.0)
Marketing, administration and research costs (12,282.0)
Integration costs and loss on sale of a food factory (111.0) 111.0
Seperation programs and asset impairments (223.0) 223.0
Provision for airline industry exposure (290.0) 290.0
Settlement charges (189.0) (30,697.0)
Amortization of goodwill (7.0)
Depreciation and amortization expense 1,331.0
Capital expenditures (2,009.0) (685.0) 9785.7%
Interest and other debt expense, net (1,134.0) (1,134.0)
Gains on sales of businesses 80.0 (80.0)
Gain on Miller Brewing transaction 2,631.0 (2,631.0)
Escrow bond for domestic tabacco litigation 0.0
Pension plan obligations (1,104.0)
Income taxes (6,424.0)
Increase in deferred income taxes 1,310.0
Income taxes (151.0)
Increase in deferred income taxes (financial) 275.0 (6,094.0) 94.9%
Minority interest in earnings (572.0) 572
Cummulative effect of accounting change
Reported Net Income 11,102.0
Operating Net Income 10,790.0
Cash Flow 8,603.0 79.7%
Employee stock option expense 137.0
Net Income with ESO expense 10,653.0
Pension expense (benefit) 154.0
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $5.08
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues
Discount revenue $7,931.0
Interest and dividends, net 2,991.0
Management and distribution fees 2,285.0
Securitization income 1,941.0
Net card fees 1,726.0
Travel commissions and fees 1,408.0
Other commissions and fees 2,113.0
Cardmember lending net finance charge 1,485.0
Life and other insurance revenues 802.0
Other 1,125.0
Accounts receivable 484.0
24,291.0
Expenses
Human resources (5,725.0)
Provisions for losses and benefits:
Annuities and investment certificates (1,217.0)
Life insurance, international banking and other (1,040.0)
Increase in insurance reserves 271.0
Charge card (960.0)
Cardmember lending (1,369.0)
Provisions for losses and benefits 2,988.0
Other assets (473.0)
Accounts payable and other liabilities 1,365.0
Professional services (2,021.0)
Occupancy and equipment (1,458.0)
Depreciation and amortization 951.0
Capital expenditures (670.0)
Interest (1,082.0)
Marketing and promotion (1,548.0)
Communications (514.0)
Restructuring charges 7.0
Non-cash portion of restructuring charge (7.0)
Disaster recovery charge 7.0
Non-cash portion of disaster recovery charge (7.0)
Other (3,160.0)
(Decrease) increase in Travelers Cheques outstanding 431.0 (15,231.0) 482.0%
Pretax income 3,727.0
Income tax provision (1,056.0) (1,056.0)
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Financing
Net increase in customer deposits 3,246.0
Sales of annuities and investment certificates 9,950.0
Redemption of annuities and investment certificates (5,782.0)
Net (decrease) increase in debt with maturities of 3 Mo. Or less (7,201.0)
Issuance of debt 19,392.0
Principal payments on debt (14,167.0)
Issuance of American Express common shares 161.0
Repurchase of American Express common shares (1,153.0)
Dividends paid (430.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing 4,016.0
Investments
Sale of investments 13,155.0
Maturity and redemption of investments 6,410.0
Purchase of investments (24,961.0)
Net increase in Cardmember loans/receivables (7,793.0)
Cardmember loans/receivables sold to trust, net 4,339.0
Proceeds from repayment of loans (115.0)
Issuance of loans
Sale of land, buildings and equipment 125.0
(Acquisitions) dispositions, net of cash acquired/sold (58.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (8,898.0)
Total cash used for investments and financing (4,882.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues $37,827.0
Increase in receivables 707.0 38,534.0 101.9%
Operating expenses:
Cost of services and products (8,363.0)
Access and other interconnection (10,790.0)
Depreciation and other amortization (4,888.0)
Selling, general and administrative expenses (7,988.0)
Amortization of goodwill, franchise cost and other purchased intangibles
Restructuring and other charges (1,437.0) 1,418.0
Depreciation and amortization 4,888.0
Capital expenditures (3,878.0)
Provision for uncollectibles 1,058.0
Decrease in accounts payables (175.0)
Net change in other operating assets and liabilities (1,400.0)
Other adjustments for noncash items (129.0) (31,684.0) 126.2%
Other income, net (77.0)
Gains on sales (30.0) (107.0) 139.0%
Interest expense (1,448.0)
Provision for income taxes (1,587.0) 2,631.0
Minority interest income 114.0 (114.0)
Equity losses from Liberty Media Group
Net losses related to other equity investments (400.0) 512.0
Cost investment impairment charges 146.0
Net revaluation of certain financial instruments 8.0
Put settlement loss and mark-to-market charges (138.0)
Income from discontinued operations (14,513.0)
Gain on sale of discontinued operations 1,324.0
Cummulative effect of accounting change (856.0) Non-cash
Reported Net Income (13,082.0)
Income from continuing operations 963.0
Cash Flow 6,605.0 685.9%
Employee stock option expense 302.0
Net Income with ESO expense 661.0
Pension expense (benefit) (232.0)
Per share data:
Reported Net Income ($17.54)
Operating Net Income $1.29
Cash Flow $ 8.85
Employee stock option expense $0.40
Net Income with ESO expense $0.89
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $54,069.0
Increase in receivables (155.0) 53,914.0 99.7%
Cost of revenue (45,499.0)
Decrease in inventories 1,510.0
Decrease in payables and accrued expenses (823.0)
Advances in excess of related costs (898.0)
Other (75.0) (45,785.0) 100.6%
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation and Amortization 1,409.0
Capital expenditures (1,001.0) 408.0 71.0%
General and administrative expenses (2,534.0)
Research and development expenses (1,639.0) (4,173.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Sales of Machinery and Engines $18,648.0
Revenues of Financial Products 1,504.0
Increase in receivables (50.0) 20,102.0 99.8%
Cost of goods sold (14,709.0)
Depreciation and amortization 1,220.0
Capital expenditures (728.0)
Increase in inventory 162.0
Increase in payables 164.0
Other 72.0 (13,819.0) 93.9%
Selling, general and administrative (2,531.0)
Research and development expenses (656.0)
Interest expense of Financial Products (521.0)
Interest expense excluding Financial Products (279.0)
Other operating expenses (416.0)
Other income 74.0
Provision for income taxes (312.0)
Equity in profit of unconsolidated affiliated companies (4.0) (4,645.0)
Financing
Dividends paid (481.0)
Common stock issued, including treasury shares reissued 10.0
Treasury shares purchased
Net intercompany borrowings
Proceeds from longterm debt issued 4,137.0
Payments on longterm debt (3,339.0)
Shortterm borrowings net (102.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing 225.0
Investments
Expenditures for equipment leased to others (1,045.0)
Proceeds from disposals of property, plant, equipment 561.0
Additions to finance receivables (15,338.0)
Collection of finance receivables 11,866.0
Proceeds from sale of finance receivables 2,310.0
Net intercompany borrowings
Investments and acquisitions (294.0)
Other net (40.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (1,980.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Loan interest, including fees $ 37,903.0
Other interest and dividends 21,036.0
Insurance premiums 3,410.0
Commissions and fees 15,258.0
Principal transactions 4,513.0
Asset management and administration fees 5,146.0
Realized gains from sales of investments (485.0)
Other income 5,775.0
Change in brokerage receivables net of brokerage payables (1,070.0) 91,486.0 98.8%
Interest expense (21,248.0) (21,248.0)
Provisions for benefits, claims and credit losses:
Policyholder benefits and claims (3,478.0)
Provision for credit losses (9,995.0)
- Amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and value of insurance force 405.0
+ Additions to deferred policy acquisition costs (865.0)
- Change in insurance policy and claims reserves 3,272.0 (10,661.0)
Operating expenses:
Non-insurance compensation and benefits (18,650.0)
Insurance underwriting, acquisition, and operating (992.0)
Restructuring charges and merger related costs 15.0
Other operating (17,671.0)
Depreciation and amortization 1,521.0
Capital expenditures on premises and equipment (1,377.0)
Provision for credit losses 9,995.0
Change in trading account assets (10,625.0)
Change in trading account liabilities 10,883.0
Change in federal funds sold and securities purchased under agreements to resell (2,127.0)
Change in federal funds sold and securities purchased under agreements to repurchase 7,176.0
Net gain on sale of securities 485.0
Venture capital activity 577.0
Restructuring charges and merger-related costs (15.0)
Other (6,827.0) (27,632.0) 74.1%
Provision for income taxes (6,998.0)
Deferred tax benefit (204.0) (7,202.0)
Minority interest (91.0) (328.0)
Cummulative effect of accounting change (47.0) 47.0
Income from discontinued operations 1,875.0
Net cash used in discontinued operations (237.0)
Reported Net Income 15,276.0
Operating Net Income 13,539.0
Cash Flow 24,415.0 180.3%
Employee stock option expense 766.0
Net Income with ESO expense 12,773.0
Pension expense (benefit) (23.0)
Per share data:
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $19,564.0 19,564.0
Cost of goods sold (7,105.0)
- Foreign currency adjustments (76.0)
+ Change in operating assets and liabilitites (407.0)
- Other 291.0 (7,297.0) 102.7%
Depreciation and Amortization 806.0
Capital expenditures (851.0) (45.0)
Selling, general and administrative expenses (7,001.0)
Other operating charges 0.0
Stock based compensation expense 365.0 (6,636.0)
Interest Income 209.0
Interest expense (199.0) 10.0
Equity Income 384.0
+ Equity income, net of dividends (256.0) 128.0 33.3%
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Financing
Borrowings g (4,038.0
, )
Repurchases of common stock -
Dividends (428.0)
Exercise of stock options and other 47.0
Commercial paper borrowings (33.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing 1,511.0
Investments
Acquisitions (2,845.0)
Dispositions 200.0
Proceeds from sale of marketable securities and other investments 601.0
Purchases of marketable securities (9.0)
Other (37.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (2,090.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $24,006.0
Other income 516.0
Increase in receivables 468.0 24,990.0 104.1%
Noncash items
Income from operations of discontinued business, net of income taxes
Gain on disposal of discontinued business
Cummulative effect of accounting change (2,944.0)
Reported Net Income (1,103.0)
Operating Net Income 1,841.0
Cash Flow 773.0 42.0%
Employee stock option expense 171.0
Net Income with ESO expense 1,670.0
Pension expense (benefit) (217.0)
Reported Net Income ($1.11)
Operating Net Income $1.84
Cash Flow $0.77
Employee stock option expense $0.17
Net Income with ESO expense $1.67
Pension expense (benefit) ($0.22)
Shares Outstanding 998.0
Additional cash flow items
Financing
Dividends paid to stockholders (1,401.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $ 12,835.0
Increase in receivables 263.0 13,098.0 102.0%
Cost of goods sold (8,225.0)
Depreciation and amortization 818.0
Capital expenditures (577.0)
Increase in inventory 88.0
Decrease in liabilities excluding borrowings 29.0
Other 285.0 (7,582.0) 92.2%
Selling, general and adminsisrative expenses (2,530.0)
Research and development costs (762.0)
Goodwill amortization -
Restructuring costs and other (98.0) 85.0
Interest expense (173.0) (3,478.0) 100.4%
Other income (101.0)
Gain on sale/retirement of assets 81.0 (20.0) 19.8%
Provision for taxes (153.0)
Provision for deferred taxes (224.0) (377.0) 246.4%
Loss from discontinued operations, net of income tax benefits (23.0) 9.0 (14.0)
Reported Net Income 770.0
Operating Net Income 787.0
Cash Flow 1,627.0 206.7%
Employee stock option expense 105.0
Net income with ESO expense 879.0
Pension expense (benefit) (197.0)
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $2.64
Income from continuing operations $2.70
Cash Flow $5.58
Employee stock option expense $0.36
Net income with ESO expense $3.02
Pension expense (benefit) ($0.68)
Shares outstanding 291.5
Additional cash flow items
Financing
Net increase in borrowings with original maturities of 90 days or less (210.0)
Proceeds from other borrowinngs 759.0
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenue:
Sales and other operating revenue, including excise taxes $200,949.0
Earnings from equity interests and other revenue 3,557.0
Accounts receivable (305.0)
Dividends received greater than equity in current earnings of equity companies (170.0) 204,031.0 99.8%
Costs and expenses:
Crude oil and product purchases (90,950.0)
Decrease in inventories 353.0 (90,597.0) 99.6%
Operating expenses (17,831.0)
Decrease accounts and other payables 365.0
Annuity and accrued liability provisions (590.0)
Other 1,307.0 (16,749.0) 93.9%
Selling, general and administrative expenses (12,356.0) (12,356.0)
Depreciation and depletion (8,310.0)
Depreciation and depletion 8,310.0
Capital expenditures (11,437.0) (11,437.0) 137.6%
Exploration expenses, including dry holes (920.0)
Merger related expense (410.0)
Interest expense (398.0)
Excise taxes (22,040.0)
Other taxes and duties (33,572.0)
Extraordinary gain before income tax (57,340.0)
Income applicable to minority and preferred interests (209.0)
Cash dividends to minority interests 209.0 0.0
Income taxes (6,499.0)
Deferred income tax charges 297.0
Prepaid taxes and expenses 32.0 (6,170.0) 94.9%
Discontinued operations 449.0 449.0
Net Income 11,460.0
Operating Net Income 11,011.0
Cash Flow 9,831.0 89.3%
Employee stock option expense 161.0
Net Income with ESO expense 11,299.0
Pension expense (benefit) 995.0
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $1.69
Operating Net Income $1.62
Cash Flow $1.45
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Sales of goods $55,096.0
Sales of services 21,138.0
Other income 1,013.0
GECS revenue from services 54,451.0
Decrease in receivables (409.0) 131,289.0 99.7%
Cost of goods sold (38,833.0)
Depreciation 5,998.0
Capital expenditures (13,351.0)
Amortization of goodwill and other intangibles
Decrease in inventory (87.0)
Increase in payables 227.0
Other (6,329.0) (52,375.0) 134.9%
Cost of services sold (14,023.0)
Interest and other financial charges (10,216.0) (24,239.0)
Insurance losses and policyholder and annuity benefits (17,608.0)
Increase in insurance liabilities, reserves and annuity benefits 9,454.0 (8,154.0) 46.3%
Provision for losses on financing receivables (3,087.0)
Provision for losses on financing receivables 3,087.0 non-cash
Other costs and expenses (28,714.0)
Minority interest in net earnings of consolidated affiliates (326.0) (29,040.0)
Provision for taxes (3,758.0)
Change in Deferred taxes 2,414.0 (1,344.0) 35.8%
Cummulative effect of accounting change (1,015.0) 1,015.0
Reported Net Income 14,118.0
Operating Net Income 15,133.0
Cash Flow 16,137.0 106.6%
Employee stock option expense 330.0
Net Income with ESO expense 14,837.0
Pension expense (benefit) 1,556.0
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $1.42
Operating Net Income $1.52
Cash Flow $1.62
Employee stock option expense $0.03
Net Income with ESO expense $1.49
Pension expense (benefit) $0.16
Shares outstanding 9,940.0
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues: $ 186,763.0
Manufactured products sales and revenues
Financing revenues
Other income 186,763.0
Costs and expenses:
Cost of sales and other operating charges (153,344.0)
Postretirement benefits other than pensions, net of payments and VEBA contributions (208.0)
Pension expense, net of contributions (3,380.0)
Net change in mortgage loans (4,376.0)
Net change in mortgage securities (656.0)
Rental fleet vehicle - acquisitions (5,595.0)
Rental fleet vehicle - dispositions 4,774.0
Change in other investments and miscellaneous assets 6,195.0
Change in other operating assets and liabilities 4,600.0
Other 1,081.0 (150,909.0) 98.4%
Selling, general and administrative expenses (23,624.0) (23,624.0)
Depreciation and amortization expense
Depreciation and amortization expense 12,938.0
Expenditures for property (7,443.0) 5,495.0
Interest expense (7,715.0)
Other expense
Income tax expense (533.0)
Minority interests 189.0
Losses of nonconsolidated associates (8,059.0)
Dividends on preference stocks (47.0)
Reported Net Income 1,689.0
Operating Net Income 1,736.0
Cash Flow 9,666.0 556.8%
Employee stock option expense 318.0
Net Income with ESO expense 1,418.0
Pension expense (benefit) 1,805.0
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $3.28
Operating Net Income $3.37
Cash Flow $18.77
Employee stock option expense $0.62
Net Income with ESO expense $2.75
Pension expense (benefit) $3.50
Shares outstanding 515.0
Additional cash flow items
Financing
Net increase in loans payable (404.0)
Increase in long-term debt 28,255.0
Repurchases of common and preference stock (97.0)
Net financing activity with Automotive Communications Services
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Products $45,955.0
Services 10,178.0
Financing 455.0
Increase in receivables 899.0 57,487.0 102.4%
Costs and expenses:
Cost of products sold (34,573.0)
Depreciation and amortization 2,119.0
Capital expenditures (1,710.0)
Decrease in inventory 1,124.0
Increase in payables 395.0
Other current assets (1,289.0)
Other 138.0 (33,796.0) 97.8%
Cost of services (6,817.0)
Research and development (3,312.0)
Selling, general and administrative (9,033.0)
Restructuring charges (1,780.0) 1,780.0
In-process research and development charges (793.0)
Acquisition-related charges (701.0) 1,494.0
Amortization of purchased intangible assets and goodwill (402.0)
Interest income and other, net 52.0
Net investment gains (106.0) 106.0
Provision for doubtful accounts 299.0
Litigation settlement 14.0
Losses on divestitures (19,199.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Net Sales 58,247.0
+ Decrease in receivables (38.0) 100.2%
Increase in deferred revenue 147.0 58,356.0
Cost of Merchandise Sold (40,139.0) (40,139.0)
Operating Expenses:
Selling and store operating (11,180.0)
Pre-opening (96.0)
General and administrative (1,002.0)
Non-recurring charge
- Depreciation and amortization 903.0
+ Capital expenditures (2,749.0)
+ Increase in merchandise inventories (1,592.0)
- Increase in accounts payable 1,394.0
- Other 68.0 (14,254.0) 116.1%
Interest, net 42.0 42.0
Income Taxes (2,208.0)
- Deferred income tax 173.0
- Increase in income taxes payable 83.0 (1,952.0)
Net Income 3,664.0
Operating Net Income
Cash Flow 2,053.0 56.03%
Employee stock option expense 250.0
Net Income with ESO expense 3,414.0
Pension expense (benefit) -
Reported Net Income $ 1.57
Income from continuing operations $ -
Cash Flow $ 0.88
Employee stock option expense $ 0.11
Net Income with ESO expense $ 1.46
Pension expense (benefit) -
Shares outstanding 2,336.0
Additional cash flow items
Financing
Issuance of commercial paper obligations, net (754.0)
Proceeds from long-term borrowings 532.0
Repayments of notes receivable from ESOP
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Investments
Purchase of remaining interest in Home Depot Canada (190.0)
Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 126.0
Proceeds from sales of business, net 64.0
Purchases of investments (85.0)
Proceeds from maturities of investments 25.0
Other (13.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (73.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Revenue $22,274.0
Increase in receivables 181.0 22,455.0 100.8%
Cost of goods sold (17,615.0)
Depreciation and amortization 671.0
Capital expenditures (671.0)
Increase in inventory 333.0
Increase in payables 63.0
Merger repositioning and other charges 634.0
Litton settlement payment (162.0)
Retirement benefit plan (408.0)
Other current assets 51.0
Accrued liabilities (418.0)
Other (46.0) (17,568.0) 99.7%
Selling, general and administrative (2,757.0)
Loss on sale of non-strategic businesses (124.0) 124.0
Asbestos related litigation charges, net of insurance (1,548.0) 1,548.0
Business impairment charges (877.0) 877.0
Equity in loss of affiliated companies 42.0 (55.0)
Other income 4.0
Interest and other financial charges (344.0)
(3,110.0)
Tax provision 725.0
Deferred income taxes (793.0)
Net taxes paid (68.0)
Reported Net Income (220.0)
Operating Net Income 1,630.0
Cash Flow 1,709.0 104.8%
Employee stock option expense 64.0
Net Income with ESO expense 1,566.0
Pension expense (benefit) (147.0)
Investments
Proceeds from disposals of property, plant, equipment 41.0
Derease in investments 91.0
Cash paid for acquisitions (520.0)
Proceeds from sale of businesses 183.0
Decrease in short-term investments 6.0
Net cash from (used for) investments (199.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $26,764.0
Increase in receivables 30.0 26,794.0 100.1%
Cost of revenue (13,446.0)
Net loss on retirements of property, plant and equipment 301.0
Decrease in inventories (26.0)
Decrease in payables (226.0)
Increase in accrued liabilities 107.0
Other (21.0) (13,311.0) 99.0%
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation expense 4,676.0
Capital expenditures (4,703.0) (27.0) 100.6%
Research and development (4,034.0)
Marketing, general and administrative (4,334.0)
Purchased inprocess research and development (20.0) 20.0
Amortization and impairment of acquisition-related intangibles and costs (548.0) 668.0
Gains on equity securities (372.0) 372.0
Loss on investment in Convera
Trading assets (444.0)
Interest income and other, net 194.0 (8,498.0)
Provision for taxes (1,087.0)
Deferred taxes 110.0
Income taxes payable 175.0
Tax benefit of employee stock options 270.0 (532.0) 48.9%
Net Income 3,117.0
Operating Net Income 3,665.0
Cash Flow 4,426.0 120.8%
Employee stock option expense 1,170.0
Net Income with ESO expense 2,495.0
Pension expense (benefit) (56.0)
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $0.47
Operating Net Income $0.55
Cash Flow $0.67
Employee stock option expense $0.18
Net Income with ESO expense $0.38
Pension expense (benefit) ($0.01)
Shares outstanding 6,651.0
Additional cash flow items
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Financing
Increase in short-term debt, net (101.0)
Additions to long-term debt 55.0
Retirement of long-term debt (18.0)
Proceeds from sales of shares 681.0
Proceeds from exercise of warrants
Proceeds from sale of warrants
Repurchase and retirement of common stock (4,014.0)
Payment of dividends to stockholders (533.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing (3,930.0)
Investments
Acquisitions net of cash acquired (57.0)
Purchase of available-for-sale investments (6,309.0)
Sales and maturities of available-for-sale investments 5,634.0
Other investing activities (330.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (1,062.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales:
Hardware segments $27,456.0
Global services segment 36,360.0
Software segment 13,074.0
Global financing segment 3,232.0
Enterprise investments segment/other 1,064.0
- Increase in accounts receivable 4,125.0 85,311.0 105.1%
Costs and expenses:
Hardware segments (20,020.0)
Global services segment (26,812.0)
Software segment (2,043.0)
Global financing segment (1,416.0)
Enterprise investments segment/other (611.0)
- Depreciation 3,691.0
+ Capital expenditures (4,753.0)
- Inventories 793.0
+ Gain on asset sales (343.0)
- Other assets (4,157.0)
- Accounts payable (55.0)
- Write down of impaired assets 58.0
- Other liabilities 2,371.0 (53,297.0) 104.7%
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Cashing Up 26 June 2003
Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $24,976.0
Accounts receivable 127.0 25,103.0 100.5%
Cost of revenue (18,256.0)
Inventories 89.0
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 199.0
Accrued liabilities (42.0)
Other (8.0) (18,018.0) 98.7%
Selling and administrative expenses (2,046.0) (2,046.0)
Depreciation and amortization (1,587.0)
Depreciation and amortization 1,587.0
Capital expenditures (1,005.0) (1,005.0) 63.3%
Distribution expenses (1,098.0)
Taxes other than payroll and income taxes (249.0) (1,347.0)
Oil and gas impairment charge
Merger integration cost Non-cash
Reversals of reserves no longer required 68.0 (68.0)
Payments related to restructuring reserves, legal reserves, and MA integration (340.0)
Restructuring charge / write-off (695.0) 695.0 (340.0) (500.0)%
Gains on sales of investments and businesses
Net loss and impairments of investments and businesses held for sale 41.0 41.0
Interest expense (783.0) (783.0)
Income tax provision 54.0
Deferred income tax provision (399.0) (345.0) (638.9)%
Minority interest expense (130.0)
Cummulative effect of accounting change (1,175.0) 1,175.0
Net loss and impairments of investments and businesses held for sale (41.0) (171.0)
Reported Net Income (880.0)
Operating Net Income 295.0
Cash Flow 1,089.0 369.2%
Employee stock option expense 41.0
Net Income with ESO expense (921.0)
Pension expense (benefit) (75.0)
Per share data:
Reported Net Income ($1.83)
Operating Net Income $0.61
Cash Flow $2.26
Employee stock option expense $0.09
Net Income with ESO expense ($1.91)
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Financing
Dividends of common stock (2,381.0)
Repurchase of common stock (6,538.0)
Proceeds from short-term debt 2,359.0
Retirement of short-term debt (560.0)
Proceeds from long-term debt 22.0
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Investments
Proceeds from the disposal of assets 156.0
Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired (478.0)
Purchase of investments (6,923.0)
Sale of investments 7,353.0
Other (206.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (98.0)
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Revenues:
Investment banking fees $2,763.0
Trading revenue 2,594.0
Net change in trading related assets (58,183.0)
Fees and Commissions 10,756.0
Private equity realized gains (105.0)
Private equity unrealized gains (641.0) 641.0
Securities gains 1,563.0
Securities borrowed 2,437.0
Other revenue 1,158.0
Other assets 5,735.0
Accrued interest and accounts receivable 677.0
Other, net (1,235.0) (31,840.0) -176.0%
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Cashing Up 26 June 2003
Financing
Domestic deposits 9,985.0
Foreign deposits 1,118.0
Federal funds purchased and securities sold under repo agreements 41,038.0
Commercial paper and other borrowed funds (4,675.0)
Other, net
Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt 11,971.0
Repayments of long-term debt (12,185.0)
Proceeds from the issuance of stock and stock-related rewards 725.0
Redemption of preferred stock (550.0)
Treasury stock purchased
Dividends paid (2,784.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing 44,643.0
Investments
Net increase in interest earning deposits with subsidiary bank 3,801.0
Proceeds from held to maturity securities 85.0
Purchases of held to maturity securities (40.0)
Federal funds sold and securities purchased under resale agreements (2,082.0)
Loans due to sales and securitizations 97,004.0
Other loans, net (98,695.0)
Other, net (3,398.0)
Available for sale securities proceeds from maturities 5,094.0
Available for sale securities proceeds from sales 219,385.0
Available for sale securities purchases (244,547.0)
Cash used in acquisitions (72.0)
Proceeds from divestitures of nonstrategic business assets 121.0
Net cash from (used for) investments (23,344.0)
32
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33
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34
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35
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $16,332.0
Increase in receivables 145.0 16,477.0 100.9%
Financing
Change in short term debt (204.0)
Repayment of long-term debt (497.0)
Proceeds from long-term debt 1,146.0
Purchases of treasury stock (942.0)
Reissuances of treasury stock 522.0
Payment of dividends (968.0)
Distributions to minority interests (78.0)
Other
Net cash from (used for) financing (1,021.0)
Investing
Proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment 82.0
Acquisitions and other investments (1,258.0)
Proceeds from sale of businesses 1.0
Purchases of investments (7.0)
Proceeds from sale of investments 18.0
Net cash from (used for) investing (1,164.0)
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents (42.0)
Net change in cash and cash equivalents 2.0
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales $40,238.0
Increase in receivables 96.0 40,334.0 100.2%
Cost of products sold (20,989.0)
Increase in inventories 159.0
Increase in payables and accrued expenses 684.0
Increase in other operating current assets (98.0)
Other 467.0 (19,777.0) 94.2%
Depreciation and Amortization 1,693.0
Capital expenditures (1,679.0) 14.0 99.2%
Marketing, research and administrative expenses (12,571.0)
Interest Expense (603.0)
Other income, net 308.0 (12,866.0)
Provision for taxes on income (2,031.0)
Change in deferred taxes 389.0 (1,642.0) 80.8%
Reported Net Income 4,352.0
Operating Net Income 4,497.0
Cash Flow 6,063.0 134.8%
Employee stock option expense 442.0
Net Income with ESO expense 4,055.0
Pension expense (benefit) 151.0
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $3.26
Operating Net Income $3.37
Cash Flow $4.54
Employee stock option expense $0.33
Net Income with ESO expense $3.04
Pension expense (benefit) $0.11
Shares Outstanding 1,335.0
Additional cash flow items
Financing
Dividends to shareholders (2,095.0)
Change in short-term debt 1,394.0
Additions to long-term debt 1,690.0
Reductions of long-term debt (461.0)
Proceeds from stock options 237.0
Treasury purchases (568.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing 197.0
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Investing
Proceeds from asset sales 227.0
Acquisitions (5,471.0)
Change in investment securities 88.0
Net cash from (used for) investing (5,156.0)
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 17.0
Net change in cash and cash equivalents 1,121.0
37
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales:
Voice $24,752.0
Wireless subscriber
Data 9,639.0
Long distance service 2,324.0
Directory advertising 4,504.0
Other 1,919.0
Increase in accounts receivable (571.0)
Provision for uncollectible accounts 1,407.0 43,974.0 101.9%
Costs and expenses:
Operations and support (25,937.0)
Other current assets 486.0
Decrease in accounts payable and accrued liabilities (1,943.0)
Other, net (280.0) (27,674.0) 106.7%
Depreciation and amortization (8,578.0)
Depreciation and amortization expense 8,578.0
Amortization of investment tax credits (30.0)
Capital expenditures (6,808.0) (6,838.0) 79.7%
Interest expense (821.0) (821.0)
Equity in net income of affiliates 1,921.0
Undistributed earnings from investments in equity affiliates (1,586.0) 335.0 17.4%
Other income 734.0
Gain on sale of investments (794.0) (60.0)
Income Taxes (2,984.0)
Increase in deferred income taxes 2,470.0 (514.0) 17.2%
Extraordinary loss from early extinguishment of debt, net of tax
Cumulative effect of accounting change (1,820.0) 1,820.0 Non-cash
Reported Net Income 5,653.0
Operating Net Income 7,473.0
Cash Flow 8,402.0 112.4%
Employee stock option expense 390.0
Net Income with ESO expense 7,083.0
Pension expense (benefit) (1,137.0)
Per share data:
Reported Net Income $1.70
Operating Net Income $2.24
Cash Flow $2.52
Employee stock option expense $0.12
Net Income with ESO expense $2.13
Pension expense (benefit) ($0.34)
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Cash flow as a %
Earnings Adjustment Cash Flow of income stmt item
Sales:
Product sales $21,189.0
Service sales 6,791.0
Financing revenue and other income, net 232.0
Decrease in accounts receivable 80.0 28,292.0 100.3%
Costs and expenses:
Cost of products sold (15,717.0)
Increase in inventories and contracts in progress 327.0
Decrease in other current assets 10.0
Increase in accounts payable (301.0)
Contribution to domestic pension plans (500.0)
Other, net (197.0) (16,378.0) 104.2%
Depreciation expense 727.0
Capital expenditures (586.0) 141.0 80.6%
Cost of services sold (4,444.0)
Research and development (1,191.0)
Selling, general and administrative (3,203.0)
Interest (381.0) (9,219.0)
Income Taxes (887.0)
Decrease in deferred income taxes 318.0 (569.0) 64.1%
Minority interests subsidiaries' earnings (153.0)
Dividends to minority interests and other 153.0 non-cash
Reported Net Income 2,236.0
Operating Net Income 2,236.0
Cash Flow 2,267.0 101.4%
Employee stock option expense 118.0
Net Income with ESO expense 2,118.0
Pension expense (benefit) 105.0
Financing
Issuance of long-term debt 500.0
Repayment of long-term debt (231.0)
Increase (decrease) in short-term borrowings (357.0)
Common stock issued under employee stock plans 183.0
Dividends paid on common stock (462.0)
Common stock repurchase (700.0)
Dividends to minority interest and other (184.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing (1,251.0)
Investments
Increase in customer financing assets (386.0)
Decrease in customer financing assets 222.0
Acquisitions of businesses (402.0)
Dispositions of businesses 26.0
Other, net 38.0
Net cash from (used for) investments (502.0)
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Financing
Increase in commercial paper 1,836.0
Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt 2,044.0
Proceeds from issuance of common stock 0.0
Purchase of company stock (3,232.0)
Payment of long-term debt (1,263.0)
Payment of capital lease obligations
Other financing activities (273.0)
Dividends (1,328.0)
Net cash from (used for) financing (2,216.0)
Investments
Proceeds from termination of net investment hedges -
Disposal of Assets 445.0
Other investment activity (54.0)
Investment in international operations (749.0)
Net cash from (used for) investments (358.0)
40
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Endnotes
1
Alfred Rappaport and Michael J. Mauboussin, The Trouble With Earnings and
Price/Earnings Multiples, http://www.expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.pdf.
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
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Disclosure Section
Michael Mauboussin & Kristen Bartholdson each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that he
or she analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will
be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon
various factors including CSFB's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by CSFB's investment
banking activities.
Analyst’s stock ratings are defined as follows:
Outperform: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed the industry average* by at least 10-15% (or
more, depending on perceived risk) over the next 12 months.
Neutral: The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the industry average* (range of ±10%) over
the next 12 months.
Underperform**: The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the industry average* by 10-15% or
more over the next 12 months.
*The industry average refers to the average total return of the analyst's industry coverage universe
(except with respect to Asia/Pacific, Latin America and Emerging Markets, where stock ratings are
relative to the relevant country index).
**In an effort to achieve a more balanced distribution of stock ratings, the Firm has requested that
analysts rate at least 15% of their coverage universe as Underperform. This guideline is subject to
change depending on several factors, including general market conditions.
Restricted: CSFB policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications,
including an investment recommendation, during the course of CSFB's engagement in an investment
banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V]: A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or
more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going
forward. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 12 months of trading.
Analyst’s coverage universe weightings are defined as follows:
Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12
months.
For the exclusive use of Evgenia Plotnikova (evgenia@dawncapital.com) at Dawn Capital LLP
Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the
next 12 months.
Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12
months.
CSFB’s distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution*
Outperform 34% (47% banking clients)
Neutral 43% (36% banking clients)
Underperform 20% (33% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and
Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock
ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be
based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
Disclosures continue on next page.
42
Additional Disclosures
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