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Price Tag: AOLTW
Price Tag: AOLTW
could be
worth up to $160 billion. Consensus price: $110 billion-if buyers were ready and assets could be
bought. That's a big if.(Brief Article)(Illustration)(Statistical Data Included)
NETWORKS
What: TBS Superstation, TNT, CNN; HBO (``The Sopranos,'' above), part of Time Warner
Entertainment, which is 74.5%-owned by AOL Time Warner; The WB, majority-owned by TWE;
Atlanta Braves, Hawks, Thrashers.
Buzz: Turner networks had a tough go during the upfront, especially with CNN; WB did much better.
PUBLISHING
What: 140 magazines including Time, People, Sports Illustrated and Golf. Accounted for 24% of ad
spending in U.S. magazines in 2001, according to Publishers Information Bureau estimates. AOL Time
Warner Book Group, including Warner Books, Little, Brown, Time Warner Books UK.
Buzz: Gold standard of the magazine world-but tarnished by post-merger layoffs and ad slowdown.
CABLE SYSTEMS
What: Cable TV systems with 10.8 million subscribers. Majority of systems are owned by Time
Warner Entertainment.
Buzz: May be heading toward IPO as it unwinds Time Warner Entertainment venture with AT&T
Corp. Strong presence in major markets (NY1, below), which can still drive revenue especially if
digital services sales quicken.
AMERICA ONLINE
Buzz: World's No. 1 Internet service provider is dogged by slumping ad sales, management turmoil and
slowing subscriber growth. But all those $23.90-a-month subscriptions rake in a lot of cash. AOL has
big revenue opportunities to upgrade customers if it can figure out a clear broadband strategy.
FILMED ENTERTAINMENT
What: Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner Entertainment; New Line Cinema (``Austin Powers,''
above); film and animation libraries; TV production.
Buzz: Warner Bros. major franchises ``Potter'' and ``Matrix'' will keep studio near top; New Line does
the same with ``Blade'' and ``Lord of the Rings.''
MUSIC
What: Warner Bros. (Linkin Park, below), Atlantic, Elektra, Word Entertainment (recorded music).
Warner/Chappell (music library).
Buzz: No longer the crown jewel in the Warner empire, the group needs better, newer and younger
acts-or a faster ramp up for its AOL Music service.
Notes: Divisions' revenue includes sales to siblings; AOL Time Warner subtracts that from its revenue.
EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. 1 Ad Age estimate of how
the stock market currently values the businesses, apportioning last week's $57.8 billion market
capitalization among divisions. Market cap is share price times outstanding shares. 2 Top asset
valuation among select analysts. Numbers would be lower after accounting for debt, joint ventures and
other factors. The Current Value is effectively a bottom asset valuation for now. 3 Ad Age estimate of
what a buyer would pay for the assets if buyers were present and the assets were available for sale.
Based on review of analysts' calculations and interviews with industry experts. Actual selling prices
would be affected by apportionment of debt and by interests in joint ventures. 4 Pro forma 5 Morgan
Stanley forecast
Sources: Advertising Age; AOL Time Warner; DeSilva & Phillips; Merrill Lynch; Morgan Stanley;
SoundView Technology Group; Vogel Capital Managment.