BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

DEFINITION

Probability is the chance, or likelihood, of a particular outcome out of a number of a

possible outcomes occurring for a given event.

Mathematically: P (A) = r/n

Where, A = event of a specific type

r = number of successful outcomes of event A

n = total no. of possible outcomes

P (A) = probability of event A occurring

BASIC PROPERTIES

1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
i.e. a probability value only lies between 0 and 1
2. P(A) = 0 means that it is impossible for event A t o occur
3. P(A) = 1 means that event A is certain to occur
4. The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes of a random experiment
equals to one
5. If P(A) is the probability of event A occurring, then the probability of event A not
occurring is defined as:
P(Ᾱ) = 1 – P(A)

Ᾱ is referred to as the complement of A and is sometimes written as A’

CONCEPTS

If A and B are two events in a sample space S then:

1. P (A and B) also written as P(A ∩ B) refers to the probability of both event A and B
occurring simultaneously on a given trial of a random experiment. Referred to as
joint probability
2. P (A or B) also written as P (A U B) refers to the probability of either A, B or both A
and B occurring
3. A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur together in a
single trial in a random experiment i.e. P(A ∩ B) = 0
4. A and B are said to be statistically independent events if the occurrence of event A
has no effect on the outcome of event B occurring and vice versa
 5. P (A/B) refers to the probability of A occurring, given (or on condition) that B has
occurred. This is also referred to as conditional probability

PROBABILITY RULES

1. ADDITION RULE

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

P (A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) P (A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A AND B)

2. MULTIPLICATION RULE

STATISTICALLY DEPENDANT EVENTS STATISTICALLY INDEPENDANT EVENTS

P (A and B) = P(A/B) x P(B) P (A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

COUNTING RULES

1. n! = n factorial = n(n-1)(n-2)………..3x2x1
2. A PERMUTATION is the number of distinct ways in which a group of objects can be
arranged. Each possible arrangement( i.e. there is ordering) is called a permutation
and is given by the formula:

n!
nPr=
( n−r ) !

Where, r = no. of objects selected at a time and n = total number of objects selected

3. A COMBINATION is the number of different ways of arranging a subset of objects

selected from a group of objects where the ordering is NOT important.

n!
nCr=
r !(n−r )!