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 Women and Gender

 Women: Protection against Harassment of Women at the Workplace Act, 2010

 Mukhtaran
Mai, for example,
who
raped, FACT BOOK was gang-
stripped and
paraded in
her village,
criticized
Gen HAFSA MUBEEN Musharraf`s
derogatory
suggestion
that women got
themselves
raped to find a way
out of the country.
 A woman
gang-raped in front of her children was blamed by Lahore`s top police officer for venturing out too late at
night.
 Pakistan`s female labor-force participation is 25pc.
 According to a study, 85 per cent of female suicide attacks until 2009 were carried out by secular
organizations.
 In 2004, Al Qaeda launched AI Khansaa, and the TTP Sunnat-i-Khola in 2017; both were online
magazines for women.
 Consider that only 519 (17pc) out of 3,005 judges in the country are women (in the UK and US, women
judges constitute 32pc and 35pc respectively). The 5,731 women in the police constitute only 1.2pc of
total police strength.
 . In KP, 106 DRCs have 1,686 male and 50 female members, meaning women constitute only 2.88pc of
them.
 On a total 2,146 Public Liaison Councils, 15,993 members are male and only 41 0.257pc are female.
 As per the 2017 census, women constitute 49pc of the total population; on the Global Gender Index,
Pakistan ranks 153 out of 156 countries. In the Senate, females constitute 18.3pc. In the provincial
assemblies of KP, Punjab, Baluchistan and Sindh, women constitute 18.55pc, 19.67pc, 16.92pc and
18.45pc respectively.
 Not only are the wages low, there also seems to be gender discrimination, with men earning Rs22,172
per month, slightly higher than the national average, and women earning Rs15,461, significantly lower
than the national average. 
 Justice Ayesha A. Malik`s nomination to the Supreme Court marks the first time in our history that a
woman judge has been approved for elevation to the highest court in the land. Among the judgments she
has authored as a judge of the Lahore High Court is the landmark verdict that declared the two-finger
`virginity` test as `illegal and against the Constitution` an indictment of a system that subjected rape
victims to additional distress and humiliation. Justice Malik`s competence in other areas of the law has
also been hailed. 

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 In a country which last year ranked third from the bottom in terms of male-female parity, the Judicial
Commission of Pakistan`s vote in her favor can also be seen as a step towards gender equality in the
highest echelons of the judiciary itself.
 International Women’s Day (March 8, 2022)
 Women violence: Out of the 52,370 cases reported in 2021 only 8,719 received media coverage; about
27,273 cases involved violence against women. Punjab, from among the provinces, was where the highest
number of such cases were registered but only a handful were covered by the media.
 These statistics have been mentioned in a report prepared by the Sustainable Social Development
Organization (SSDO) which was launched at the National Press Club (NPC). The report is called ‘State of
Violence against Women & Children in Pakistan: District Wise Analysis’.
 US senate confirms Ketanji Brown Jackson as first black woman on Supreme Court.
 Balquis Edhi was already a recipient of the Hilal-i-Imtiaz, the Lenin Peace Prize, the Mother Teresa
Memorial International Award for Social Justice and the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Public Service. He
died on April 16, 2022.
 WOMEN: A 2020 report by the United Nations Development Program ranked Pakistan at the top of list of
75 countries where people have an anti-women bias, with 99.81 per cent of survey participants
expressing at least one sexist view. The survey touched on various prejudiced tropes: that men make
better political and business leaders than women; that it`s more important for men to receive a university
education; that men deserve preferential access to jobs; and that it`s alright for men to beat their wives.
This is what Pakistani women are up against.
 Child Abuse: According to data shared by the organization, the greatest number of cases continues to
surface in Kasur district that reported 298 cases in 2021. Kasur, where a huge child pornography ring was
exposed some years ago, was also the home of little Zainab, whose rape and murder, had led to violent
protests. Kasur is followed by the capital twin districts of the country Rawalpindi and Islamabad with 292
and 247 cases respectively.
 Less than 3 percent of women across Pakistan gain access to their share of inheritance.
 Three years ago, the United States Women’s National Team (USWNT) filed a $24 million gender
discrimination lawsuit against the United States Soccer Federation. 
 Sheema Karmani launched the Tehreek-i-Niswan in 1979 at a time when women in Pakistan were in dire
straits. The Hudood Ordinances, the chaadar and chaardiwari and other such tools of oppression and
suppression were being used by Gen Zia ul Haq to crush women.
 First Women Bank that was launched by Benazir Bhutto in her first term as prime minister
 A survey conducted in 2021 by the Pakistan Business Council and International Finance Corporation, a
member of the World Bank Group, highlighted the fact that only a third of companies polled publicly
disclose gender-related employment targets and results. 
  As of 2021, in Pakistan just 21 per cent of women were part of the labor force, compared to 78pc of men,
according to World Bank data.
 Biden asked Congress on 8 March for $2.6 billion for foreign aid programs that promote gender equality
worldwide, more than double the size of last year`s request.
 IT goes to the credit of gender rights leader Bindiya Rana (president of the Gender Interactive Alliance
which she founded in 2002) that Pakistan is counted among the 20-odd states to have given legal
recognition to the `third sex` non-binary people.
 The last census says there are 10,000 transgender persons in Pakistan. But Nayab Ali (Nayab won the
Franco-German Human Rights Award.), a gender rights leader, disputes this figure. She calculates that the
real strength of the transgender population is about 300,000.

2
  Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Act, 2018.
  Sindh Assembly`s decision to reserve a 0.5pc quota for transgender.
 Transgender people can now apply for CNICs; without the basic identity document, members of the
community found it impossible to operate bank accounts, apply for decent jobs, etc. 
 The Global Gender Gap Report 2022 issued by the World Economic Forum ranks Pakistan 145 out of 146
countries. Pakistan is only behind Afghanistan, which has closed 43.5 per cent of its gender gap. The
report looks at countries’ performance in closing gender-based gaps in four critical areas: Education
Attainment; Health and Survival; Economic Participation and Opportunity; and Political Empowerment. In
Education Attainment, with a score of 0.825, Pakistan stands at the 135th position. In Health and
Survival, it has performed better than China (0.940) and India (0.937) and scored 0.944 – standing at the
143rd position. In Economic Participation, it has scored 0.331 and is a notch above Afghanistan (0.176). It
has shown good performance in Political Empowerment and secured the 95th position. The report has
also concluded that the number of women-owned unicorns has increased five-fold from 18 in 2020 to 83
in 2021. This shows that given economic opportunities, women can perform equally well in business.
However, dollar investment in women-owned businesses is still significantly less than those led by men.
 According to the World Economic Forum, part of the reason for this gap is the `son preference` in such
countries. 
 according to the 2022 report: `Pakistan is the country where women have the smallest share of senior,
managerial and legislative roles (4.5pc), compared to Jamaica, where women represent 56.6pc of workers
in that category, or Togo, which has the highest share of women in senior roles, at 70.1pc.
 South Asia is the lowest-ranking region and has closed 62.3 per cent of the gender gap. It has the lowest
regional gender parity scores in Health and Survival and Economic Participation at 94.2 per cent and 35.7 per
cent respectively, and the second lowest in Education Attainment at 93.2 per cent. It has the fourth highest
gender parity score in Political Empowerment at 26.2 per cent. According to the report, South Asia will need
more than 197 years to reach gender parity – likely to achieve in the year 2219.
 Despite progress in recent decades, the World Bank has estimated that some 2.4 billion working-age women
worldwide still lack full economic rights. In 95 countries, women have no guarantee of equal pay, and 76
countries restrict women’s property rights.
 In 2016, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated that gender discrimination
costs the global economy as much as $12 trillion per year, or about 16 percent of global GDP.
 According to the World Health Organization, in 2021, 27 percent of women worldwide in the 15–49 age
group who were in a relationship experienced some form of abuse, either physical or sexual violence or both,
by an intimate partner.
 The UN Office on Drugs and Crime, for example, has included Australia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom
among the countries that have the highest reported rates of sexual violence. The United States has a notably
high rate of rape.
 Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa are particularly striking examples of countries with large
economies and significant socioeconomic disparities based on caste, gender, and religious identity. According
to the World Bank, South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, with the wealthiest one percent of
the population holding 80.6 percent of the country’s financial assets.
 According to a monthly report compiled by two NGOs, as many as 108 children and 85 women were raped
across the country in the month of July alone.
 Out of the 108 children who were sexually abused, 42 were in Punjab, 32 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 21 in
Sindh. Similarly, among the women who were subjected to sexual violence, 47 were from Punjab, 16 from
Sindh, 11 from KP, 10 from Islamabad and one from Balochistan.
 Of Indian patriarchy where a woman is raped every 16 minutes, according to a 2020 crime bureau report.

3
 Education

 ON independence, Pakistan inherited the colonial system of education, the primary purpose of which
was to develop lower order thinking skills (i.e., remembering and understanding of a text without
considering its context).
 Education: Almost one third of the youth (those aged between 15 and 29 as per one definition) are
illiterate and only six per cent of them have more than 12 years of education. In a survey done by the
UNDP a few years ago, they found that only 39 out of every 100 was actively working while 57 out of
every 100 were not, nor seeking jobs. Don`t even ask how the figures went for access to a library or to a
sports facility (more than 90pc had access to neither).
 Over here exporters and property developers congratulate the government while school teachers have to
protest on the streets for their wages.
 Only three scientists hailing from Muslim-majority countries have won the Nobel Prize: two in chemistry
and one in physics. One of them is Dr. Abdus Salam of Pakistan who was ostracized because of his faith. In
fact, their success in research came via Western universities and not the local education system.
 According to one report some years ago, 46 Muslim countries together contributed just one per cent of
the world`s scientific literature. India contributed more of the world`s scientific literature than those
countries combined. A diminishing interest in the scientific disciplines is a primary reason behind this
descent into backwardness.
 UNICEF recently presented an investment case for out-of-school children (OOSC) to the Planning
Commission of Pakistan based on a number of government and non-government data sources.
 People earning higher wages means higher income tax revenue for the state and a population that is less
dependent on social safety nets. 
 On average, completing primary-level education brings an additional lifetime income of $6,559 and at a
cost of $752 to the government and $376 to parents – the lifetime income gain far outweighs the
investment that has to be made by the government and by parents. Completing a lower secondary
education brings an additional lifetime income of $7,690 at cost of $1,254 to the government and $627 to
parents – a modest increase in income for a modest investment.
  Only about five per cent of deaf children have access to education.
 According to a survey by Alif Ailaan some years ago, 43 per cent of public-sector teachers had not
received a single training session for several years. 
 Our adult literacy rate has not budged much and has stagnated around 60 per cent while one quarter of
our youth is illiterate. Out of 52 million children of school going age, 22 million have either dropped out or
never attended school. More than half of the relevant age cohort children are out of secondary schools
and the enrolment ratio in tertiary education is only 12 per cent. Out of 149 countries, Pakistan is ranked
112th in the world on primary school enrollment. The average years of schooling of our workforce is nine
years and therefore labor productivity is not only relatively low but has stagnated since 2007, making our
exports uncompetitive in the world markets.
 Pakistan has the world`s second highest number of children out of school -22.8 million. Twelve million
are girls. It means 44 per cent of children aged five to 16 years do not go to school.
 National Curriculum of Pakistan is the new name of SNC.
 below 2 per cent of GDP on education
 Literacy rates have increased from overall 15pc to 70pc for males and 50pc for females, with significant
growth in higher education in recent years.
 Literacy rate 62.3%. (Ministry of Federal Edu and Professional Training, Pakistan) .60Million are illiterate.

4
 According to Unicef 22.8 million children of the five to 16-years age group, most of whom are from rural
areas, remain out of school. And, given the relationship between illiteracy and poverty, data from the
Borgen Project shows that rural poverty in Pakistan is at a disturbing 54.6pc compared to urban poverty,
which is at 9.3pc.

Climate Change

 HUMANITY`S unrelenting onslaught against nature has turned catastrophic. Nature is striking back with
floods, heat waves, cyclones and droughts. Environmental disasters, spurred by human-induced climate
change, are battering economies, and pushing millions of people into poverty. Poor countries are on the
front lines of a war they did not start.
 PAKISTAN is among the countries most vulnerable to climate disaster but least prepared to cope with it.
 Historically, the industrialized Global North was the major contributor to global warming through its
unfettered carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution. Even today, 80 per cent of global greenhouse
gases come from the 20 largest economies. In contrast, the world`s 46 least developed countries, home to
14pc of the global population, account for just 1pc of the world`s annual CO2 emissions. Africa, with 16pc
of the global population, produces 3.8pc of annual carbon emissions.
 The intensity and frequency of environmental disasters and their devasting impact on developing
countries has brought the issue of climate justice into renewed focus. Debate has intensified about
financial support to the developing countries affected by climate change-induced natural disasters. The
demand is not new.
 The monsoons have always been part of our folklore and poetry. They are the soul of our culture,
heritage and history, and are connected with our lives, lifestyles and livelihoods.
Historically, we have not dreaded the monsoons, but now we have begun to fear them.
 After recent flooding in Elbe another rivers in eastern Germany, studies estimated that flooding was
nine times more likely to be triggered by global climate change. Floods are complicated but not only
because of the changes in weather patterns; it is also due to the position or location of infrastructure, its
designs and the material used to enhance resilience levels. The infrastructure destroyed by floods houses,
roads, dams, embankments, power lines, bridges are costly to rebuild.
 As architect Arif Hasan said in these pages recently `It`ll flood again`. The floods will become costlier,
unless Pakistan`s response integrates adaptation and mitigation to reap the co-benefits of resilience.
Instead of stopping at cash grant disbursements, it`s time to create a special-purpose vehicle for risk
transfer and insurance in five key areas: the lives of bread earners, shelter, livestock, standing crops and
small and micro enterprises. •
 According to Pakistan Floods 2022: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), just released by the
Planning Commission, Pakistan has incurred losses and damages of $30.2 billion, or 4.8 per cent of this
fiscal year`s GDP.
 This Floods calamity hit 94 districts, including 19 of the 25 poorest ones, pushing them further behind on
SDG targets. It is estimated that these floods have increased the incidence of poverty by more than 3.7pc
and pushed another 8.4 million people below the poverty line.
 Country Climate and Development Report by the World Bank has projected that climate disasters,
environmental degradation and air pollution will result in a 7pc to 9pc f all in Pakistan`s GDP, and lead to
the latter shrinking by 20pc by 2050. The CCDR has estimated that Pakistan will need $348bn 800pc more
than the current annual budget to stop climate-induced disasters. Merely $48bn will be available through
public and private financing; there will be a projected gap of $300bn. On the ground, the PDNA urgently

5
 seeks $16.2bn for immediate recovery and reconstruction. The CCDR has put these needs in a longer-
term perspective. It has projected that between 2023 and 2030, Pakistan will need $152bn for adaptation
and $196bn for decarbonization, as committed. These are very large sums by all standards. Imagine $86bn
for disaster preparedness and response, $55bn for water and sanitation, $85bn for clean energy supply,
and so on.
 Climate pact demand to urgently reduce the emissions from 2010 level by 45pc by 2030 and net zero by
mid-century.
 The World Bank`s Country Environmental Analysis in 2019 estimated an average cost of $23bn per year
from air and water pollution, inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene, and toxic waste and soil
contamination.
  Pakistan`s environment journey began with Stockholm Declaration in 1972. A delegation led by Nusrat
Bhutto represented the country at the Stockholm meeting, resulting in the establishment of the Urban
Affairs Division (UAD), the precursor of today`s Ministry of Climate Change.
 So, precisely 50 years ago, on June 5, the UN held its first world conference on the environment in
Stockholm to make the environment a major issue – and that is why every year the 5th of June is
celebrated as World Environment Day.
 Today is a reminder that the world is not only lacking resources. It also lacks the leadership to envision
and achieve a shared vision. Our climate actions today are neither holistic nor inclusive. According to the
World Economic Forum, “The disorderly climate transition characterized by divergent trajectories
worldwide and across sectors will further drive apart countries and bifurcate societies, creating barriers to
cooperation.”
 The genesis of at least four principles of primary importance to Pakistan can be traced to the Stockholm
Declaration: i) environmental problems are global, not just local, ii) the principle of precaution, requiring
immediate action rather than waiting for conclusive scientific evidence, iii) the principle of additionality,
further expounded as the principle of `common but differentiated responsibilities` and iv) the `polluter
pays principle, requiring emitters to bear the cost of damage to society and the environment. These
principles were adopted and further refined at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 20 years later, in June
1992. These four principles are now embedded in the Earth Charter as well as in numerous international
agreements that form the backbone of the international environmental order, including around 18
multilateral environment agreements (MEA) that Pakistan has signed since.
  The Environment Ordinance in 1983 and the Environment Act in 1997
 80pc of GHGs come from 20 largest developed economies.
 By the end of this century, temperature will be 2.4 degree Celsius. Those who are least responsible for
climate change are suffering the most. Poor nations are on the front line of a war they didn’t start.
 UN Environment Program’s Adaption Gap Report 2021: The gathering storm released at Glasgow puts
these costs in higher end of estimated $140billion-$300billion per year by 2030 and $280billion-
$500billion per year by 2050 for developing countries.
 Air Quality Index: Lahore again topped the list of the most polluted cities of the world on Thursday with
hazardous air quality levels. Lahore was still at the top of the list of world`s most populated city with air
quality index of 270 (very unhealthy), followed by Hanoi (Vietnam) whose index was 209.
 Pakistan ranks 110 out of 141 countries on the Global Competitiveness index.
 National Renewable Energy Policy of 2019.  The policy aims to acquire a 30pc share of renewables in the
energy mix by 2030.
 Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that 2021 had joined the unbroken warm
streak since 2015.

6
  The annual average temperature was 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels,
measured between 1850 and 1900, C3S said.
 Methane particularly has gone up `very substantially`, to an annual record of about 1,876 parts
per billion (ppb).
 Growth rates for 2020 and 2021 were 14.6 ppb per year and 16.3 ppb per year.
 Methane (CH4) is the gas most responsible for global warming after CO2. While more short-lived
in the atmosphere, it is many times more potent than CO2.
 The rocket was employed in 2015 to put in orbit a NASA satellite, called the Deep Space Climate
Observatory.
 Climate Change: Researchers have found that when crops are exposed to carbon dioxide at the
level predicted for 2050, a plant can lose as much as10pc of its zinc,5pciron and 8pc protein
content. Studies show that protein decreased in rice, wheat, barley and potatoes by 7.6pc, 7.8pc,
14.1pc and 6.4pc, respectively, when exposed to greater carbon dioxide concentrations. It is
reported that 18 countries, including Pakistan, could lose over 5pc of protein from rice and
wheat by 2050.
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that atmospheric concentrations
of carbon are expected to reach approximately 550 ppm before 2050, even if further action is
taken to reduce them. As a result of this, some 175 million people, or 1.9pc of the global
population, could find itself deficient in zinc, and 122m people (1.3pc) could become protein
deficient. The reduction of 4pc or more in dietary iron can increase the risk of anemia, especially
in women and children under five years.
  At COP26, Pakistan didn`t announce a net-zero year unlike some other countries but declared
ambitious plans to cut 50pc of projected emissions and achieve 60pc renewable energy by 2030.
This reduction is set to be achieved through a combination of the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami
Program, green transportation, a move away from coal to hydropower, wind, solar and nuclear
energy and more. 
 By 2050, over 40 million people from South Asia could become climate migrants, roaming the
earth in search of whichever country would take them.
 Future of Pakistan: Ecologically, climate change may destroy our fertile soil, swamp coastlines,
cause water wars and increase disasters and migration hugely. Demographically, our numbers
may hit 300 million-plus given a high fertility rate. Economically, our inability to escape slow GDP
and job growth, high twin deficits, a huge debt and poor innovation and competitiveness may
cause economic collapse. Socially, fake religiosity and patriotism and extremism may fan huge
social unrest TLP`s quick rise reflects this fact. Externally, we are in an unstable region that is fast
becoming more extremist and autocratic. India-Pakistan enmity is the main global nuclear risk.
Afghan instability poses huge risks. Tension between two key allies (US-China) may pull us in and
pose unpalatable choices. And politically, we alone lack civilian sway regionally. Almost every
issue above stems from our autocratic eras, especially Gen Zia`s. Almost all our parties owe their
existence partially to Pindi. So, blame even for their follies deflects partly to the establishment.
The landed/business elite-led parties are responsible for patronage, sleaze and top-down politics.
But oddly, the politics and outcomes of our main middle class-led political forces MQM, PTI, TLP
are worse. The popularity of the PTI`s populist megalomania among educated people threatens
rationalism.
 According to the World Bank, 800 million people living in South Asia are especially vulnerable to
the disastrous effects of climate change as their delicate ecosystems are ravaged by pollutants

7
 and changing weather patterns. By 2030, economic losses from climate change in the region will
average $160 billion per year.
 Every year the world observes June 5 as World Environment Day. Exactly 50 years ago in 1972,
the UN General Assembly designated this day as such and the first celebration took place in 1974
under the slogan ‘Only One Earth’.
 Multiple fires in Margalla hills in May- June 2022
  Forest Fires: The recent blazes in Besham and Chakesar tehsils in Shangla district have
reportedly been controlled, albeit after claiming at least three lives, taking the total death toll
from forest fires in KP to nine.
 Jacobabad, Nawab Shah and Sibi have emerged amongst the top hottest places in the world with
average temperatures recording five degrees Celsius higher than normal.
 While reducing GHG emissions is a global compact, the fact remains that the future of the world
is in the hands of the top seven emitters: China (10bn MTCO2 or metric tons of carbon dioxide),
US (5.4bn MTCO2), India (2.5bn MTCO2), Russia (1.7bn MTCO2), Japan (1.2bn MTCO2) Germany
(0.75bn MTCO2). 
  Last year, the UK alone dispatched 40,000 tons of waste to Pakistan, while Iran and the UAE
accounted for 25,000 and 20,000 tons, respectively.
 Pakistan itself generates 30m tons of municipal solid waste annually. Of this, 10pc to 14pc is
categorized as hazardous waste, which includes hospital waste, e-waste and pesticides.
 Pakistan needs to shed the following three misplaced assumptions for effective designing and
communication of impact-oriented climate actions.
1. First, rather than referring to Pakistan as among the countries most vulnerable to climate
change; it would be more accurate to describe it as one of the least prepared. Policymakers
of ten plays up the vulnerability card to play down their own responsibility thus presenting a
fatalistic approach. The `victim card` is routinely highlighted by governments to somehow
dilute their responsibility to reduce vulnerabilities. Accepting that we`re poorly prepared
increases the accountability and direct responsibility of the concerned federal and provincial
government departments as well as the presently non-existent local governments (LG),
which are ultimately responsible for bottom-up adaption planning for national resilience.
2. Second, it is a misplaced argument that climate change is a technical climatology issue on
which only climate modelers can guide us. It is, in reality, a development issue that can only
be tackled by pursuing climate-smart agriculture, water, energy, urban planning and LG
issues.
3. Third, it is inaccurate to say that climate change can be stabilized if developed countries
reduce their emissions and developing countries like Pakistan focus on adaptation. The f act
is that both adaptation and mitigation are intrinsically linked and inseparably tied. Actions on
each result in climate and economic co-benefits and contribute towards resilience.
 Budgetary allocations since 2012 when the first National Climate Change Policy was approved shows that
development expenditure has effectively decreased. This inaction is costing Pakistan an estimated 9.2 per
cent of GDP, an amount that is already more than double of the projected economic growth rate. This
would require development expenditure to be increased by 2030 from the present 2.7pc to the same
level that we had during 1972-77 i.e., 21pc, as recently argued by economist Kaiser Bengali in another
context.
 No other challenge poses a greater threat than the fast-changing climate. Recurring glacial floods, rising
sea levels, chronic heat waves and torrential rains cause losses worth around $3.8 billion to the national
exchequer on an annual basis. 

8
 COP-27 in November in Cairo.
 Total economic losses caused by natural disasters hit an estimated $72 billion in the first half of 2022,
fuelled by storms and floods, Swiss reinsurance giant Swiss Re estimated on Tuesday.
Though the figure is lower than the $91 billion estimate for the first six months of 2021.
 Climate literacy in Pakistan varies hugely. A 2021 survey by the Ministry of Climate Change, Viamo and
UNDP found that 43 per cent of young people (aged 19-34) with digital access had a high degree of
understanding of climate change. That figure dropped to 10pc among those without smartphones. But
even those with higher awareness knew little about the government initiatives to tackle climate change;
only 24pc surveyed knew about the `Ten Billion Tree Tsunami`. Meanwhile, a 2020 study by Fahad et al on
farm households in four KP districts found that 73pc were aware of climate change, and that most were
deploying adaptation strategies.
 The 2015 Islamic Declaration on Climate Change called on Muslims to phase out fossil fuels and take up
renewables by 2050. A Clean Energy Mosques Campaign launched in 2016 calls on mosques to practice
energy conservation and set a good example. Water-scarce Jordan is one example of a Muslim country
where imams refer to Sharia law to speak against pollution and mosques largely use renewable energy
sources.
 The Pakistan Meteorological Department has said as much in reference to the 385pc higher rainfall in
Sindh and 371pc higher rainfall in Balochistan so far this summer.
 At least 128,000 deaths are reported in Pakistan every year as a result of air pollution and related
sicknesses, said Fair Finance Pakistan
 NASA claims that 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded with record-breaking heat waves
around the world.

Water Crisis

 Pakistan has over 780,000 hectares (1,927,421 acres) of wetlands covering about 10 per cent of the total
land area, with 225 nationally significant wetlands, of which 19 have been recognized as Ramsar
Convention sites of global significance, including the Indus delta.
 It was only in 2018 that the National Water Policy recognized the importance of environmental integrity
of the Indus basin and committed to ensuring e-flows to conserve river ecology, morphology and delta
and coastal ecosystems.
 Marala Ravi Link Canal that transports water from the Chenab to the Ravi 
 Pakistan already has more than 7,000 glaciers out of which an alarming 3,044 have become glacial lakes.
 Water Crises:  According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), the water shortage in the country,
first estimated at 22 per cent, is actually 38 per cent. Though the government expects that freshwater
flows in rivers may alleviate water scarcity soon, the indications are not favorable. Nearly 40 per cent
water scarcity for irrigation functions amid the Kharif season is alarming as the sowing of main vegetation
is underway. 
 Pakistan already ranks 14th among the 17 `extremely high water-risk` regions in the world, a list that
includes hot and dry countries like Saudi Arabia.
 Dams water shortage issue: To assess the vitality of large dams in our irrigation system, Wapda`s data for
Tarbela Dam was assessed from 1975 to 2010, the years when the dam`s performance was optimal. The
data shows that on average, the dam had stored 6.92-million-acre feet of water in the summers (Kharif)
and had released 6.77 MAF to supplement irrigation in winters (Rabi). However, not all the water released
from the dam actually reaches a farmer`s field.
Established conveyance losses of 30 per cent in the rivers, 30pc in canals and 30pc in watercourses means

9
 that only about 2.32 MAF of irrigation is supplemented at the farm-gate by the Tarbela reservoir.
Comparing it with the 104 MAF used in the irrigation sector in an average year, Tarbela`s contribution is
insignificant. And so is Mangla`s.
A paper by Kharal and Ali, published by the International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic
Studies in 2007, assessed the losses and gains in the Indus river system before and after the construction
of the Tarbela reservoir, in the context of historical data from 1940 to 2003. The study found that post-
Tarbela losses in the Indus, between Tarbela and Kotri, increased from 10.86 MAF to 18.22 MAF, a net
additional loss of 7.36 MAF which is already higher than the 6.77 MAF of water that Tarbela releases in
the Rabi season. In other words, 7.36 MAF more water would reach Kotri every year if there was no
Tarbela Dam. The same study has also reported that during pre-Tarbela winters, the river would gain
about 2.5 MAF of additional water between Tarbela and Kotri, primarily due to groundwater seepage.
However, in the post-Tarbela era, the river loses about 2.3 MAF of water between the same reach or
about 4.8 MAF net loss in water in the winter months at Kotri.
This loss alone more than nullifies the 2.32 MAF of contribution of the Indus in the Rabi season.
So much for dams as the backbone of irrigation. Now, let`s analyze the water situation of Sindh in early
summer each year. There`s been a history of Sindh-Punjab water disputes since 1856, but post-
independence events are naturally of more relevance.
According to the Indus River System Authority`s Chronological Exposé of the 1991 apportionment
accord, several committees/commissions were made to resolve Sindh-Punjab water issues. These
included the Akhtar Hussain Committee of 1968, the Fazl-e-Akbar Committee of 1970, the Anwar-ul Haq
Commission of 1976, the Justice Haleem Committee of 1983, etc. The recommendations of these
committees/commissions would show that the difference between allocations to provinces was around 2
MAF. Even today, in the light of the 1991 accord, the disputed allocation between the provinces is around
the same.
 Data from Tarbela between 1975 and 2010 shows that from April to June, the dam fills up its reservoir
with 1.9 MAF on average. This is the summer flow from snow and glacial melt, which is the critical
agronomic requirement for the Kharif sowing season, especially in Sindh, but is held up by the dam. The
Dam Manual, which is the dam manager`s bible, says that the filling of the reservoir should begin with the
early summer flows without waiting for the monsoons, despite the fact that monsoon flows alone are
enough to fill the reservoir. Tarbela and Mangla combined hold back between 3.5 to 4 MAF of early
summer flows. These flows, if not held back, would by themselves ease tensions between the federating
units.
 Water Shortage: The average reduction of water in the major water stores of Pakistan has been recorded
around 40 per cent. Water reduction in Mangla Dam alone has reached 920 percent. They have a
combined ability to store water for 30 days only. In comparison, the US and India can store their waters
for 900 and 190 days, respectively. Due to shortage of dams, Pakistan can store only 0.09 per cent of the
total water it receives annually. 
 Pakistan is the fourth largest user of water in the world. The UN estimates that by 2050 the population of
Pakistan will reach over 380 million. This will have an exponential effect on water supply, which is already
expected to remain below par for the 220 million we are today.
 Karachi`s water allocation was increased to 1,200 cusecs in the late 1980s to meet the carrying capacity of
channels under the K-III project. However, unchecked population growth, besides transmission and
distribution losses of 30 per cent to 35pc owing to the mushrooming of the `water mafia` have
compounded the woes of citizens. The K-IV project was designed to add 650 million gallons of water per
day through a separate channel drawn from the Keenjhar reservoir. But to operate this, an additional
1,200 cusecs are required every day downstream Kotri.

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 Besides, the forced opening of the Chashma Jhelum link canal in violation of the water accord and the
existence of thousands of tube wells, pumping machines and lift channels between Panjnad and Amri will
surely create an acute water shortage at the head of Kotri Barrage during dry spells.
 A new White House report, US Action Plan on Global Water Security, forecasts that Pakistan will be
among the world`s most water-stressed countries, along with other regional states, by 2040.
  That the country`s per capita water availability has dropped from 5,060 cubic meters per annum in 1951
to a mere 908 cubic meters today, according to UNDP estimates.
 Nearly 92pc of the Indus delta has been destroyed.
  The dreaded rise of 2°C in global temperatures might translate into an exponential increase of up to
20°C in South Asia.

Food Crisis

 According to the Global Network`s 2022 Global Report on Food Crisis, clashes and wars remain
significant drivers of food insecurity worldwide. Wars make weapons even out of food, a basic necessity
and the right of every human being.
 The ongoing war in Ukraine has added fuel to the already precarious poverty, hunger and malnutrition
situation. Besides its tragic humanitarian toll, the war is extending human suffering to all corners of the
world through widespread disruptions to the planting, harvesting, transport, and export of major
agricultural commodities from the Black Sea region.
 Even before the war, hunger and malnutrition were on the rise globally, with an unacceptable 823 million
people going hungry in 2021 according to the recent edition of the State of Food Security and Nutrition in
the World report by five United Nations agencies, including FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO.
 The war has pushed an additional 50 million people into severe hunger in 2022 across the world.
 The World Bank warns that the war in Ukraine is likely to plunge up to 95 million people into extreme
poverty, making 2022 the second-worst year ever for poverty alleviation, behind only 2020.
 July 29, 2022 – Record high food prices have triggered a global crisis that will drive millions more into
extreme poverty, magnifying hunger and malnutrition, while threatening to erase hard-won gains in
development. The war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and the continued economic fallout of the
COVID-19 pandemic are reversing years of development gains and pushing food prices to all-time highs.
Rising food prices have a greater impact on people in low- and middle-income countries, since they spend
a larger share of their income on food than people in high-income countries.
 As of July 29, Agriculture Price Index is 19% higher as compared to January 2021. Maize and wheat prices
are 16% and 22% higher respectively compared to Jan 2021. Rice price are about 14 % lower.
 Domestic food price inflation remains high around the world. Information between March and June 2022
shows high inflation in almost all low and middle income countries. 93.8% of lower income countries,
8.1% of lower-middle income countries and 89% of upper middle income countries have seen inflation
levels above 5%. (World Bank)
 According to the World Bank’s April 2022 Commodity Markets Outlook, the war in Ukraine has altered
global patterns of trade, production and consumption of commodities in ways that will keep prices at
historically high levels through the end of 2024 exacerbating food security and inflation.
 Over the coming months, a major challenge will be access to fertilizers which may impact food production
across many crops in different regions. Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer exporters, accounting for
38% of potassic fertilizers, 17% of compound fertilizers, and 15% of nitrogenous fertilizers.
 On April 13, 2022, the heads of the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, United Nations
World Food Programme, and World Trade Organization released a joint statement calling on the

11
 international community for urgent action to address food insecurity, to keep trade open and support
vulnerable countries, including by providing financing to meet the most urgent needs.
 The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food trade restrictions put
in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of July 15, 18
countries have implemented 27 food export bans, and seven have implemented 11 export-limiting
measures.

 Globally, hunger levels remain alarmingly high. According to the 2022 State of Food Insecurity in the
World (SOFI) report, the number of people affected by hunger rose in 2021 to 828 million, an increase of
about 46 million since 2020 and 150 million since 2019, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In
addition, WFP and FAO warned that acute food insecurity could worsen in 20 countries or areas during
June to September 2022.
 Rapid phone surveys done by the World Bank in 83 countries show a significant number of people
running out of food or reducing their consumption in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reduced calorie intake and compromised nutrition threaten gains in poverty reduction and health and
could have lasting impacts on the cognitive development of young children. 
 The World Bank Group and the G7 Presidency co-convened the Global Alliance for Food Security on May
19, which aims to catalyze an immediate and concerted response to the unfolding global hunger crisis.
 Joint Coordination Centre agreed between the UN, Ukraine, Russia and Türkiye has authorized the export
of 58,041 tonnes of grain through a designated `maritime humanitarian corridor`. The exports of this
precious wheat are part of the UN`s `initiative aimed at lowering prices of essential foods and easing the
global crisis`.

Energy Crisis

 “An energy crisis is any significant bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In
literature, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particular those
that supply national electricity grids or those used as fuel in Industrial development and population growth
have led to a surge in the global demand for energy in recent years.”
 “We are in the middle of the first global energy crisis. In the Seventies, it was the oil crisis and now we
have an oil crisis, a natural gas crisis, a coal crisis – all prices are skyrocketing and energy security is a
priority for many governments, if not all,” Birol told the panel.
 “We need to deal with all these crises simultaneously, without allowing the solution of one crisis to
exacerbate the other crisis. You’ve got to navigate your way out of the high-cost situation – this is not
sustainable – at the same time you have accelerate the green energy transition. Puri
 Research has revealed that Pakistan has a maximum gas supply of 4,300 million standard cubic feet per
day (mmcfd) against the average demand of 6,500 to 7,000 mmcfd. During the winter season, the
demand rises to 8,000 mmcfd. Therefore, there can be a shortfall of 3,500 mmcfd.
 Without a “demand reduction plan”, Pakistan will be faced with critical energy shortages. Unfortunately,
our state institutions are more interested in playing “election ludo” and political parties are busy in
political kabaddi. Instead of locking cheaper gas deals, the former PTI government was more focused on
political victimization, blame game, and ethics degradation.
 Our state motto appears to be “it will be dealt with when it will be visible”, which needs to change
 Europe is working on an important pillar of energy saving: the reduction of heating and cooling while the
Pakistan Market Share Report indicates that there is over 7.2% growth in usage in the domestic market.
 Russia is not only the world’s largest exporter of oil and refined petroleum products but also the
dominant supplier of natural gas to Europe and a major exporter of coal and the low-enriched uranium

12
 used to power nuclear plants, not to mention many other commodities. With coal, gasoline, diesel,
natural gas, and other commodity prices all near record highs, further disruption of Russian energy
supplies, whether initiated by Russia or Europe, would accelerate inflation, invite recession, demand
energy rationing, and force business shutdowns

Causes:

1) Over Consumption: There is a strain on fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal due to overconsumption –
which then, in turn, can put a strain on our water and oxygen resources by causing pollution.
2) Over Population
3) Poor infrastructure: Most of the energy-producing firms keep on using outdated equipment that restricts
the production of energy. It is the responsibility of utilities to keep on upgrading the infrastructure and set
a high standard of performance.
4) Unexplored renewable energy options
5) Delaying in commissioning of power plants: In a few countries, there is a significant delay in the
commissioning of new power plants that can fill the gap between demand and supply of energy. The
result is that old plants come under huge stress to meet the daily demand for power. When supply
doesn’t match demand, it results in load-shedding and breakdown.
6) Wastage of energy
7) Poor distribution system
8) Major accidents and natural calamities: Major accidents like pipeline burst and natural calamities like the
eruption of volcanoes, floods, earthquakes can also cause interruptions to energy supplies.
9) Wars and attacks: During the 1990 Gulf war when the price of oil reached its peak causing global
shortages and created major problems for energy consumers.

Effects:

1) Environmental effect: The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and
others.
2) Increasing prices of fuel resources
3) Political disturbance: The fact that the energy crisis creates some socio-economic disturbances, also tells
us that this global energy crisis also creates a lot of political disturbances across the globe.
4) The effect on tourism industry

Solutions:

1) Move towards renewable energy resources

2) Buy energy-efficient products: Replace traditional bulbs with CFLs and LEDs. They use fewer watts of
electricity and last longer.
3) Lighting control: Preset lighting controls, slide lighting, touch dimmers, integrated lighting controls are
few of the lighting controls that can help to conserve energy and reduce overall lighting costs.
4) Easier grid access: subsidy on solar panels should be given to encourage more people to explore
renewable options.
5) Energy simulation: Energy simulation software can be used by big corporates and corporations to
redesign the building unit and reduce running business energy costs.
6) Common stand on climate change

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 Democracy

 Democracy is noisy and that is its beauty.

 2022: Economic Intelligence Unit ranked Pakistan 104 on 167 states on its global Democracy Index (Pakistan
received a score of 5.67 in the category of electoral process and pluralism; 5.36 on the functioning of
government; 3.33 on political participation; 2.50 on political culture; and 4.71 on civil liberties).
 The Global State of Democracy Report 2021, published by a Sweden-based research institute, highlights what it
calls `democratic erosion`. It says `the quality of democracy continues to travel a very visible downward path
across the board`. Democratic governments, according to the report, have been mimicking the practices of
authoritarian regimes and this `democratic backsliding` is `threatening to become a different kind of pandemic`. It
`now afflicts very large and influential democracies that account for a quarter of the world`s population`. This at a
time when the percentage of people living in a democracy has also plunged to its lowest point since 1991.
 The US is no exception to a global trend also playing out in central Europe where leaders including Victor Orbán in
Hungary, Andrzej Duda in Poland and an aspiring `elected autocrat` Herbert Kickl in Austria represent the far right
that has manipulated xenophobic nationalism and mobilized anti-immigration sentiment to seize power. Then
there is Brazil`s far right populist President Jair Bolsonaro in Latin America`s largest democracy. Many such
populists once they are elected concentrate power subvert democracy and engage in reckless politics and
authoritarian practices.

 The Fabian Society is a British socialist organization whose purpose is to advance the principles

of democratic socialism via gradualist and reformist effort in democracies, rather than
by revolutionary overthrow.

 Digital Democracy Conclusion: Even though the rise of digital democracy will strengthen democracy and

empower our youth, it still has a long way to go. First and foremost, it is integral that the digital

infrastructure goes across societies and communities to avoid the digital divide. Significant work remains to

provide access to broadband internet to citizens worldwide. In Pakistan, for example, only 35 per cent of

the population has access to the internet. Internet penetration is critical and a barrier to the success of

digital democracy.

 Future governments in Pakistan need to change how they can utilize technology to strengthen democracy

and empower the youth. We must go beyond complaint portals to create space for our youth to

collaborate and shape their future. The youth must demand this shift of their new leaders and parties. The

youth must strive to voice their concerns, mobilize conversations, petition for improvements, co-innovate,

crowd source new laws, or recommend changes to previous ones. Our youth’s talent and brain power must

not go to waste; let’s demand 21st-century solutions to make our democracy stronger and shape our

future.

14
 Economy

OUR economy runs on an unfair status quo model where elites protect their big privileges while the poor
get the crumbs. 
We need a new economic model that ends our perennial issues of low growth, twin deficits and inequity.
The main state models are East Asian (export-led), Scandinavian (welfare), American (large domestic
economy), Gulf states (natural resources), Caribbean (tax havens), North Korean (reclusive) and some
criminal states.
Gelb, in Power Rules, cautioned that economic power does not produce results expeditiously. “Economic
power functions best when you permit it to proceed slowly,” he wrote, “allowing it to act like the tide.
For the first four decades – 1950-1990 – Pakistan was among the fastest growing economies in the
developing world. This achievement was remarkable because Pakistan without any industrial base had to
rehabilitate and absorb eight million refugees – almost one fourth of the total population; had to fight a
war with a much bigger and stronger neighbor in 1965; lost its eastern wing and suffered a trauma in
1971.
 Fiscal responsibility and debt limitation act of 2005 (depart from principles of sound fiscal and debt
management owing to unforeseen demands on its finance).
 State bank data for September shows, public debt has grown to 77pc of nation’s GDP, far exceeding the
limit as imposed by law is 60pc.
 PM IK: growing debt________National security issue
 According to the 2022 report, the world`s least unequal place is Western Europe and the world`s most
unequal region is the Middle East.
 Individuals from the richest 10pc of countries make 40 times as much as those from the bottom half of
countries.
 Seventy-two per cent of the federal budget goes to only three things: pensions, debt servicing and
defense spending.
 Private investment represents only 10pc of GDP. To become a middle-income country, that figure should
be 25-30pc.
 Only 8pc of SMEs have access to credit and only 21pc of the country is banked.
 Consider also that in the 10 years until 2019, the economy lost $3.8bn due to climate related events.
 Bangladesh`s national income has multiplied 50 times, per capita income 25 times (higher than India`s
and Pakistan`s), and food production four times. Population growth was contained at 2.5 times, raising
per capita food availability. Exports have grown 100 times and poverty is down to 20 per cent from 60pc
in 1990. Life expectancy has risen to 72. Most social indicators are better compared to regional countries
except Sri Lanka. The value of the Human Development Index increased 60pc.
 Pakistan`s per capita income in 1990 was twice as much as Bangladesh`s but has fallen today to only
seven-tenth. Between 2011 and 2019, before COVID struck, Bangladesh`s average GDP growth ranged
between 7pc and 8pc almost twice as fast as Pakistan`s.
 The upward revision by the State Bank of inflation projections to 9pc-11pc and the current account
deficit to 4pc of GDP for the current fiscal is being seen as rather optimistic given the upside risks. 
 OUR average monthly wage has risen from Rs6, 612 in 2007-08 to Rs21,326 in 2018-19, according to the
Labor Force Survey 2018-19 (LFS). In between these 11 years, the average wage increase was 11.2 per
cent per annum, somewhat higher than the average yearly inflation rate of 8.9pc.
Our population in 2018-19 was 214.5 million, with a labor force size of 68.8m of which 4.8m were
unemployed and 64m employed. Of all those employed, 27m were paid employees (wage earners) and
37m were non-employees (employers, self-employed or contributing family workers.) About 13.5pc

15
 (3.6m) of paid employees earned Rs5,000-Rs10,000; 26pc (7m) earned between Rs10,000 to 15,000; and
the remaining 54.8pc (14.8m) earned over Rs15,000 per month.
  The rupee has declined by almost 12pc since the start of the year and more than 17pc after having
bottomed out to 152.50 to a dollar in mid-May as the country hit balance-of payment troubles that always
follow its `growth spurts`.
  With the current account deficit growing to more than $7bn or 5.3pc of GDP from July to November,
against the State Bank`s revised projection of 4pc for the entire year.
 Inflation: Whopping annual rate of 12.3pc the highest level in 22 months in December 2021, according to
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data.
 In 1981, our population was 84m, with 900,000 taxpayers, of whom one-third were salaried. In 1998, our
population rose to 131m. Anyone born in 1998 would be 24 years old today, and therefore a potential
taxpayer.
 Out of a present population of over 220m, the names of only 2.178m individuals and companies appear
on the Active Taxpayers List 2021. It replaced the ATL 2020 that named 3.12m individuals and companies.
In effect, 932,000 names seem to have slipped off the new list.
 A scholar on taxation identified five characteristics of a desirable system of taxation. It should be
economically efficient, administratively simple, flexible, politically accountable, and equitable.
  The government`s debt and liabilities increased by 5.9 per cent in the current fiscal year (5MFY22) and
14.4pc during the last 12 months (Nov 2020-Nov 2021), data issued by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
on Wednesday showed.
 Data for 2009-2019 shows Pakistan`s average annual earnings from tourism at $1.03bn. Claiming that the
tourism potential of GB alone is $30bn sounds ludicrous.
 According to GB`s Tourism Minister Raja Nasir Ali Khan, 0.7 million tourists visited the area from May to
July 2021. According to the Tourism and Hospitality Management Department of the Karakoram
International University in Hunza, there were 2m visitors to GB last year.
  According to the report, in Gross Regional Product (GRP) rankings, Baluchistan has fallen from second to
fourth place from 1999-2000 to the present while Punjab has moved from third to second place and KP
from the last to third.
 Karachi generates almost 18pc of the country`s GDP and 47pc of the GRP of Sindh. Almost 56pc of the
federal tax revenues and 85pc of the provincial tax revenues are collected here.
  The country`s current account deficit surpassed $9 billion in the first half of the ongoing fiscal year,
accounting for 5.7 per cent of the gross domestic product.
 THE increase in the withholding tax rate on cellular services calls and internet usage from 10pc to 15pc
indicates that the country`s fiscal policy makers.
 The enhanced rate of mobile tax, which was slashed from 12.5pc to 10pc in the budget 2021-22, also
goes against the government`s commitment to reduce the levy to 8pc in the next budget and will slow
down plans for a `digital Pakistan`.
 The 9.5pc tax-to-GDP ratio.
 Inflation higher than 9pc or lower than 4pc hurts growth.
 During the past 50 years (FY1972 to 2021) the actual outcome of average annual inflation ranged
between 2.9pc to 30pc. Inflation was higher than 7pc in 31 of these 50 years. Average annual inflation
during this period was 9.1pc, not a commendable performance.
 IMF to Pakistan loan under Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
 Pakistan made a 39-month EFF arrangement with the IMF in July 2019 for SDR 4.268bn (about $6bn at the
time of approval of the arrangement) package, which was 210pc of the quota.

16
 State Bank Amendment Bill 2022: Overall attendance was a healthy 86pc, 12 senators including eight of
them belonging to the opposition were absent on the day the crucial bill was tabled in the Upper House.
Most shocking was the absence of the leader of the opposition who happened to be out of Islamabad
attending a funeral of a party colleague.  Final tally on the bill was 43 in favor versus 42 against.
 IMF condition to impose additional taxes of Rs700bn for resumption of its funding, and convinced it to
slash its demand to Rs343bn in the mini-budget approved by parliament last month.
 The upcoming federal budget would entail an increase in federal tax revenue by about Rs1.155 trillion,
including Rs430 billion worth of additional tax measures, according to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF).
 As per the IMF report, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is required to collect Rs7.255tr during the
fiscal year 2022-23, compared to the revised target of Rs6.1tr for current financial year, showing an
increase of Rs1.155tr. 
 The expansion of about Rs730bn is expected on account of four per cent growth in GDP, coupled with
about 8pc inflation. The remaining Rs430bn or so would have to be generated through taxation measures,
including personal income tax higher tax rates and lower tax exemption limit.
 The FBR`s tax-to-revenue would thus increase to 11.8pc next year against 11.2pc estimated during the
current year. Of this, about 0.4pc of GDP would come from federal excise and 0.2pc from general sales
tax.
 The debt servicing is also projected to go up by about Rs453bn to Rs3.523tr next year, up almost 1pc of
GDP over the current year`s interest payments of R s3.07tr.
The defense expenditure is projected to go up by Rs186bn to Rs1.586tr from Rs1.4tr this year. As
percentage of GDP, interest payments would remain unchanged at 5.7pc.
 Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) would be curtailed by about Rs60bn next year to Rs1.81tr
compared to the revised estimate of Rs1.87tr for the current year.
While the federal PSDP would remain almost unchanged at Rs555bn, the provincial development
programme could come down by Rs60bn to Rs1.251tr from Rs1.317tr this year.
 According to the First Schedule of the ordinance, Lahore will have 70 seats in its council. Of these 70
seats, 42 are on reserve categories, which also bizarrely includes a category for traders alongside the
more conventional ones of women, youth, workers/peasants, minorities and differently abled citizens.
 IMF tax exemption: 350 billion $.
 Additional taxes of Rs430bn through the next budget in June.
 FBR has been given a tax target of Rs7.25tr for the next fiscal, up by Rs1.15tr from the revised target of
Rs6.10tr for the ongoing year. 
 Additional tax revenues are expected to come from 4pc growth and 8pc inflation
  Pakistan was put on the grey list in June 2018 and has since completely or largely addressed 32 out of 34
action points.
 The government on Monday approved Rs303 billion worth of a supplementary budget to cover the
financing cost of a series of populist measures Rs5 per unit cut in electricity rates, partial payments to the
oil industry for a price freeze on petroleum products and debt servicing of Naya Pakistan Certificates.
 The 39-month IMF program is to come to an end in September 2022.
 Tax revenues are the main source of governments` spending capacity all over the world. Pakistan`s failure
to raise its tax-to-GDP ratio beyond 9pc to 12pc means that the government would have limited capability
to invest in essential public services, and finance economic and social development. Little wonder then
that successive governments have had no choice other than to take on debt to pay for their burgeoning
expenditure and fund development in the country.

17
 Pakistan has taken $6bn from the IMF, and $10bn from China (with a request for an additional $10bn).
 Pakistan`s exports are reported at $6bn with the US during 2021 and $12bn with the European Union,
with an overall trade surplus of $4bn with the US and EU.
 GDP FOOD/crops share: This should be a red alert for Pakistan’s agricultural sector that has great
potential to contribute to the country's GDP, much more than 18.9 percent (2021) by absorbing 42.3
percent of the labor force (2021).
 According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2020-2021), the compound annual growth rate for IT and
related services reached 18.85 per cent, the highest growth rate of any industry in the region. In addition,
micro enterprises, independent consultants and freelancers contributed around $500 million to IT and IT’s
exports while the annual domestic revenue exceeded $1 billion.
 IT export remittances in sectors including telecommunication and computer IT services surged to $1.29bn
at a growth rate of 41.39pc, compared to $918m during the corresponding period in FY20
 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to increase the size of its $6 billion loan programme
by $2bn.
 Pakistan`s per capita income is 178th in the world, currently 69 and 61 per cent of Bangladesh and India
respectively.
 Foreign direct investment into the country was the equivalent of 0.8pc of GDP in 2019, less than half the
rate for India (1.8pc of GDP). In terms of inflows, Pakistan attracts around $3 billion in gross FDI annually,
compared to $50bn-plus for India.
 Trade deficit stands at around $39 billion.
 With India, during the peace process (2004-8), bilateral trade had jumped to over $3.6bn. But since
August 2019, all trade ties remain suspended.
 India and China, which despite their border and other disputes, have a thriving bilateral trade that has
now touched the figure of $125bn.
 The process of self-destruction began in 1953 when Pakistan signed an aid treaty with Washington
followed by the Baghdad Pact and SEATO. 
 Economy:  Our stock of monetary base (ie currency plus deposits of commercial banks with SBP, also
known as reserve money) is over Rs8,000 billion. If we, somehow, get $8,000bn dollars as non-borrowed
SBP foreign exchange reserves, then this bluff will become credible.
 our current foreign exchange reserves stand at $10bn
 during July-March FY22; quarterly interest expenses on external debt and net profit and dividend
payments averaged $1.5bn; exports $9.6bn; remittances $7.8bn. Outflows from the current account
exceeded inflows by about $4.4bn per quarter, with a three-quarter current account deficit of $13.2bn.
This deficit was financed by incurrence of net liabilities (through foreign investments and loans net of
amortization) of $7.4bn leaving a hole of $5.8bn, financed through use (depletion) of foreign exchange
reserves. Current (last) quarter of FY22 is likely to see rapidity in external sector deterioration.
 In his new book Charter of the Economy, economist Hafiz Pasha has considered some impacts. Water
availability has decreased by 49 per cent between 1990-1991 and 2020-2021; unemployment has risen
from 1.7pc in 1961 to 3.1pc in 1981 to 5.8pc in 2018; availability of agricultural land has decreased from
6.1 acres in 1947 to 0.49 acres per capita of rural population; the quality of life in Karachi stands at 201
out of 231 cities in the world; etc.
 The State Bank has raised its policy rate by 150bps to 13.75pc (24 May)
 The current account deficit in the ongoing fiscal year is at a record high of $15 billion.
 THE imposition of 17pc sales tax on solar energy equipment, as proposed in the Finance Supplementary
Bill, 2021

18
 A recent World Bank forecast says the country`s economy is likely to expand by 3.4pc this fiscal, much
slower than the government`s target of 4-5pc.
 IMF to Pakistan: Memorandum of economic and financial policies (MEFP) that there would be no more
amnesty scheme.
 Senate approved SBP amendment Bill on Jan 28, 2022.
 Provisional GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year (2021-22) is 5.97 per cent. The bad news is that,
despite this healthy growth, Pakistan is once again facing the menace of twin deficits – dollars deficit
(current account deficit, CAD) and rupee deficit (fiscal deficit).
 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) estimates that from now till June 30, 2023 Pakistan’s external financing
requirement (on top of export earnings and remittances) would be around $46 billion. The SBP anticipates
that if the IMF programme gets resumed and Pakistan stays disciplined in it, it can fetch external financing
of around $51 billion during the next 13 months.
 Pakistan`s shadow economy is estimated to be in the range of 30pc to 50pc of the nation`s total reported
GDP by various studies using different methodologies. 
 THE estimated revenue collection of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in the first 11 months of 2021-22 is
likely to be close to Rs5,350 billion. This represents an unprecedented jump of 28.5 per cent over the
collection of Rs4,163bn in the corresponding period of 2020-21. This is probably the highest growth rate
ever.
 The share of indirect taxes was 63.5pc in 2020-21 which is likely to rise to 65pc by the end of 2021-22,
with more than 52pc of total tax revenues being collected at the import stage.
 GDP growth actually exceeded the PTI government`s set target of 4.8 per cent by registering at 5.97pc
  some pertinent economic particulars of the country: (a) Imports are double the exports (both in
international currency); (b) The foreign assistance received each year by Pakistan is equal to only one per
cent to 2pc of its annual economic production but, crucially, foreign assistance is in international currency;
(c) Tax collection is merely around 10pc of all economic production in the country, mainly through indirect
taxation, which puts a disproportionate burden on the poor; (d) Agricultural revenue has dropped to
around 20pc of the total annual domestic production the largest segment of the population is related to
agricultural income and the country`s meagre exports are primarily agriculture-based.
 Budget deficit` refers to the difference between revenues received by the government and what it
spends. `Current account deficit` just means that a country`s receipts from other countries are less than
its total payments to other countries. CAD and `balance of payments` are often used interchangeably. The
State Bank`s `reserves` refers (in general) to how much international currency it has. ‘Monetary policy`
includes tools such as interest rates set by the State Bank. `Fiscal policy` refers to taxation and
government expenditures. Finally, `GDP` is the total monetary value of all domestic production during a
time period and the `growth rate ‘is its increase.
 SBP got 2.3 billion dollars Chinese loan on June 24, 2022.
 Final numbers have yet to come, but it is safe to say that in FY22 Pakistan will import edible oil worth $4
billion. Also, it will import wheat worth about $1 billion. Recall that until a few years ago, we exported
wheat. Import of machinery will cost $11 billion. And if the economy has to grow, we need more plant
and machinery. Medicine import will be over $4 billion. In FY 22, we will import eight million tons of iron
and steel for $5.3 billion. The 1.1-million-ton capacity steel mill will produce nothing.
 It produces five million tons of steel against 40 million by Turkey and 29 million by Iran. India produces
120 million tons and China over a billion. 
 The SBP’s latest data has revealed that the country’s current account deficit (CAD) has widened to a
four-month high at $1.245 billion in May 2022. This figure is 2.2 times higher than the deficit of $640

19
 million recorded in May 2021, and 2.3 times higher when compared with the current account gap of $618
million in the previous month of April 2022. 
 Super Tax of 10%: Large industries, which currently pay a high corporate tax of 29 per cent and provide
millions of jobs nationwide, will be adversely impacted by the enforcement of a 10 per cent super tax. The
corporate income tax and investment tax will now be higher than 50 per cent and 55 per cent,
respectively. This is the highest in Pakistan’s history as well as in this region. The corporate tax in India and
Bangladesh is 25 per cent.
 Robert Kennedy remarked in 1968: `GDP does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their
education or the joy of their play’. The European Parliament noted in 2012 that `GDP does not measure
environmental sustainability or social integration`, and `stressed the need to develop additional indicators
for measuring economic and social progress`.
 To fill that gap, the United Nations Environment Programme led an initiative to develop an alternate
index to the GDP and the Human Development Index. The Inclusive Wealth Index will complement GDP,
providing a holistic assessment of produced capital or GDP, human capital and the natural capital of
countries. According to UNEP`s environmental economist, Pushpam Kumar, IWI is `capable of measuring
not only traditional stocks of wealth but also those less tangible and unseen such as educational levels,
skill sets, healthcare, as well as environmental assets and the functioning of key ecosystem services that
form the backbone of human well-being and ultimately set the parameters for sustainable development`.
 UNEP`s Inclusive Wealth Report 2018 showed that out of the 140 countries tracked, 44 suffered a
decline in inclusive wealth per capita since 1992, though GDP per capita increased in most. The report
indicates that in a combined assessment of produced capital, natural capital and human capital, the
growth rate of inclusive wealth is much slower than GDP growth rate. Pakistan`s report (1992-2019)
provides an insight into the country`s share of natural capital and encourages policymaking through
inclusive wealth estimations.
  Last month, at an international meeting in Stockholm, the UN secretary general urged the world to
place `true value on the environment and go beyond Gross Domestic Product as a measure of human
progress and well-being. Let us not forget that when we destroy a forest, we are creating GDP. When we
overfish, we are creating GDP. GDP is not a way to measure richness in the present situation in the world`.
 Debt Trap: THE 22nd IMF programme, circular debt, G2G loans and an imminent 23rd programme lurking
around the corner. We entered the first IMF programme in 1958.
 As of Dec 31, 2021, combined foreign currency loans are more than $90.5 billion. 
 The story of Pakistan`s debt is incomplete without taking into account domestic debt, which by the end of
December 2021had crossed Rs26.7 trillion (roughly $151.5bn based on the Dec 31, 2021, closing rate),
resulting in total debt in excess of $242bn or around 77 per cent of GDP. There is also the circular debt,
which grew from Rs161bn in 2008 to over Rs2.46tr by March 2022
  V-shaped recovery by posting real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5. 97 percent in the fiscal
year 2022
 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the period July -May 2022 was recorded at 11. 3 percent as
against 8. 8 per cent during the same period last year.
 The country`s foreign exchange reserves are around $9.7bn, which cover less than six weeks of imports.
As the reserve cushion has begun to erode so has confidence. Moreover, heavy external obligations lie
ahead over $30bn estimated for this fiscal year, $21bn to repay debt and $10-12bn to fund the current
account deficit.
 Some studies show us that between 1984 and 2020, the private sector share in the total national lending
in Bangladesh grew from 14 percent to 52 percent, in India from 25 percent to 56 percent, whereas, in
Pakistan, it reduced from almost 30 percent to 18 percent in the same period.

20
 Since 1960, 147 governments have defaulted on their obligations, according to the joint Bank of Canada-
Bank of England database on sovereign defaults
 Greece defaulted in 2015 when its interest payments ran 20 days late.
 In terms of numbers, Pakistan`s total public debt at 71 per cent of GDP is relatively contained compared
to Sri Lanka`s at more than 100pc. Pakistan`s external debt is also relatively low at 36pc of GDP, primarily
held by the public sector and has been sourced from concessional sources. Moreover, Pakistan`s interest
rate-growth differential, a key statistic for debt dynamics and sovereign sustainability analysis is negative
4.8, implying Pakistan`s overall debt ratios can be reduced even in the absence of primary surpluses,
whereas Pakistan is on track towards generating a primary surplus at the end of this fiscal year.
 Trade of $20 trillion between China and India despite of their differences.
 it would not be wrong to say that during the last 75 years, customized versions of different economic
models — ranging from a regulated economy (of the 1950s), industrialization and green revolution
(1960s), nationalization (1970s), Islamization (1980s), liberalization (1990s), and half-hearted economic
reforms (in the last two decades) — were experimented in Pakistan under different forms of civil,
military, and hybrid arrangements of governance.
 Pakistan today is the 24th largest economy in the world with a GDP of approximately 1500 billion (PPP
dollars) and per capita income of PPP $6672. In terms of official exchange rate, per capita income is $1700
compared to $100 in 1947.
 Geo-economics is about using economic tools and geography to benefit through international trade and
other means of interstate economic cooperation.
 Pakistan has increased its per capita income from around $100 in 1950 to (a vastly underestimated)
$1,750 in 2022. Starting with a non-existent modern manufacturing sector, it has built one up thanks to an
earlier generation of dynamic entrepreneurs and traders, many of whom had migrated from India. It
today contributes 15 per cent of GDP.
 August 30: IMF announced to release $1.17 billion loan.
 Aug 31: IMF released $1.16bn loan
 A study by Price water house Coopers in 2017 forecast that by 2050 China at a predicted $49,853 billion
will account for 20 per cent of the world GDP. Both China and India ($28,021bn) will be the first and the
third largest economies in the world with the US relegated to second position. Out of the 32 largest
economies in the world, it is predicted that 12 will be from Asia with a cumulative GDP accounting for
44pc of the world GDP. The share of the GDP of the US and EU in world GDP will be reduced.
 Pakistan’s inflation measured via consumer price index (CPI) hit a 47-year high to 27.3 per cent in August
2022, last seen in May 1975
 Debt servicing, which account for 5.4pc of GDP; security, 4.1pc; and social services (education,
healthcare, water and sanitation, etc.), at just 3.5pc. The government`s total tax collection is only around
11pc of GDP.

Domestic Politics

 Sawat agreement of 2008 resulted in the de facto surrender of the scenic valley to the Mullah Fazlullah-
led TTP.
 Green Line bus service was inaugurated in Karachi by the Prime Minister IK on Friday Dec 10, 2021. PMLN
launched it in 2016.
 TI`s survey found that 85.9 per cent of respondents consider the government`s self-accountability to be
lacking. More tellingly, a majority (66.8pc) believe the government`s accountability drive is biased. The
drivers of corruption are perceived to be weak accountability (according to 51.9pc of respondents) and

21
 the insatiable greed of the powerful (29.3pc). And almost 73pc of surveyed Pakistanis believe that the lack
of local government structures has spurred public-sector corruption at the grassroots level.
 2013 the Sindh provincial assembly adopted the Child Marriage Restraint Act that banned the marriage of
girls and boys under 18.
 Legal Aid Society (LAS) decided to take the initiative and launched an evidence-based project called the
Child Early Forced Marriage Project (CEFMP) in September 2021.
 The policy then passed through the National Security Committee and federal cabinet which finally
approved the NSP on Dec 28, 2021. It had been in the making since 2014.
 NSP is organized in 8 parts.
  Federal Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar and NRDC vice chairman Ning Jizhe also
signed the minutes of the Sixth JWG meeting on Gwadar held on December 30, 2021.
  The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has allocated Rs239 million to address environment-related
issues in the province, including Rs70 million to purchase mobile air quality monitoring stations for
Peshawar.
 Bill for seeking provincial status of GB is being rejected. (March 2, 2022).
 Formation of the PDM in Sep 20, 2020.
 “Political Conflict in Pakistan” book by Muhammad Waseem.
 Six J-10C multirole fighter aircraft (from China) were commissioned by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) on
March 11 in a bid to address conventional imbalance amid Indian military`s modernization.
 The Senate Standing Committee on Federal Education and Professional Training, National Heritage and
Culture rejected the draft Bill for establishment of Pak University of Engineering & Technology University
Bill, 2022 as passed by the National Assembly.
 Reko Dik Case: An agreement was signed under which Antofagasta decided not to participate in the
reconstituted project and withdrew from its claim of $3.9bn in place of $900 million, which would be paid
by the three state-owned enterprises in return for a 25pc share. IT avoided $11bn worth of penalty to
Pakistan.
 Reko Dik Case: The minister said that as per the new agreement, Barrick Gold Corporation would get 50
per cent and the Baluchistan government 25pc share, while the rest 25pc would be shared among the
state-owned enterprises Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)
and Government Holdings Pakistan (GHPL).
This agreement was suspended in 2011 due to a dispute over the legality of its licensing process. As a
result, the International Court of Arbitration leveled $6.4bn award on the government of Pakistan while at
the same time the London Court of Arbitration was also imposing another $4bn fine on Pakistan.
 In the 2018 elections, the PTI won 155 seats in the National Assembly, the highest by any party but not
enough to form a government on its own. However, with the help of the MQM`s seven MNAs, PML-Q`s
five, the newly formed BAP`s five, BNP`s four, the newly formed GDA`s three and AML`s one, it was able
to form a coalition government. The PTI had to rely on coalition partners who were also given key
ministries in the federal cabinet.
 The most significant of which pertain to the Elections Act of 2017, under which electronic voting
machines and overseas voting were introduced.
 Deputy speaker Qasim Suri blocked no confidence vote on April 3.
 Imran Khan was first PM who left office by no confidence voting on 9 April.
 Shehbaz Shareef became PM on 11 April.
 Twice in the past, in 1989 and 2006, governments confronted no-confidence moves, but they faced up to
them in parliament and defeated them. The most significant of which pertain to the Elections Act of 2017,
under which electronic voting machines and overseas voting were introduced.

22
 Under 1973 constitution, a political party must win at least 172 seats in the National Assembly in the
general elections to form government (the executive).
 The judiciary is comprised of judges appointed by the Judicial Commission of Pakistan which is composed
of the chief justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan who is the chairperson of the commission, the four
senior-most judges of the Supreme Court, a former chief justice or judge of the Supreme Court, the
federal law minister, the attorney general of Pakistan, and a senior advocate of the Supreme Court.
 Bilawal is the youngest foreign minister of Pakistan.
 The Payment of Wages Act, 1936, guaranteed the timely payment of wages and prohibited unlawful
deductions from them. Similarly, most of the labor laws enforced in Pakistan also have clauses for
workers` welfare.

The following are the three key labor welfare laws at present: (1) Provincial Employees Social Security
Ordinance, 1965 (2) Companies Profits (Workers` Participation) Act, 1968, and (3) Employees` Old-Age
Benefits Act, 1976.
 1st foreign visit of PM Shehbaz Shareef to Saudi Arabia.
 EVM: The minister told Dawn the other day that the battery life of the EVMs has been extended from 24
hours to 72 hours and that the device can now automatically drop the ballot paper for the voter into the
ballot box. `Now this device also allows a voter a second chance to tick the party sign before casting the
vote, ` he said. The modifications, he added, have been made to satisfy the critics of EVMs who continue
to oppose the use of technology in elections, which the ruling party says, is the only way to make the
electoral process fair and transparent.
 Dynastic Politics: Jawaharlal Nehru was premier for nearly 17 years; his daughter Indira Gandhi was PM
for a total of nearly 16 years. Man Mohan Singh as a Nehru proxy was prime minister for 10 years and
Rajiv Gandhi for another five. Thus, the Nehrus dominated politics in India for 47 out of 67 years after
independence until Modi came along in 2014. The family is down but not out. In the Philippines too, there
have been a number of political dynasties, the more famous them being the Aquino and Marcos families.
Ferdinand Marcos was president for 21 years and was ignominiously ousted on allegations of corruption
against him and his wife. But the public has forgotten that, electing his son as president this year while his
daughter is also prominent in politics. Sri Lanka is a classic example. For the past two decades, Mahinda
Rajapaksa has loomed large, first as president for a decade between 2005 and 2015 and then as PM. Up
until recently, one Rajapaksa brother was president, another prime minister, a third defense minister and
another finance minister. After the recent crisis, the president dropped his PM brother, followed by
another, but the family`s grip continues.
  TTP demand that the government withdraw its troops from the now merged areas of erstwhile Fata,
repeal the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to reverse Fata`s merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and
implement the Sharia in Malakand Division. That much we seem to know. Right? But have you ever
wondered what the people of those districts want? According to a poll survey in 2016 by the Fata
Research Centre, 68 per cent of the respondents in the ex-Fata region demanded the full abolishment of
the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) and the introduction of a new governance system. The study further
highlighted that 74pc of the respondents endorsed the option of merging Fata with KP. The idea of
restructuring Fata as a separate province was endorsed by 26pc of the respondents.
 Punjab Bi Elections on 17 July, PTI won 15/20 provincial seats.

Health/Pandemic

 Below 1.25 per cent on health

23
 Pakistan now ranks third in the world in the number of diabetic patients.
 Cancer due to smoking kills about 5 million people annually.
 The government`s Tobacco Control Cell tells us that least 23.9m adults use tobacco in some form.
 Amongst the youth (13-15 years of age), 13.3pc and 6.6pc girls are tobacco users.
 Adverse Childhood Experiences, a landmark study published in the 1990s, examined the relationship
between child abuse, neglect and household dysfunction with future health and well-being in mind. It
showed that children who experienced a traumatic event in their childhood including domestic violence
had higher risk of behavioral and mental health issues. They also tended to have various physical ailments
during adulthood and many experienced premature death.
 According to the Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), 20 per cent of people worldwide suffer from
depression, compared to 34pc in Pakistan. There are only 500 psychiatrists for 220 million people in the
country due to which mental illnesses are not treated at all in 90pc cases, and in the remaining 10pc, it is
not treated when actually needed.
 An estimated 50 million people in Pakistan suffer from mental illnesses. These diseases include
depression, intoxication, schizophrenia, double personality, posttraumatic stress disorder, etc. According
to a survey, 36pc people in Pakistan suffer from anxiety and depression. The main reason for this is
keeping the family members in the dark about their condition, and even when they are taken into
confidence, family members generally find it beyond their comprehension.
 According to the World Health Organization, 13,000 to 14,000 people commit suicide in Pakistan every
year, while the number of unsuccessful attempts is in the millions. From 2002 to 2019, the suicide rate
among men was 13pc. Among women, the rate fell to 4.3pc from 4.9pc.
 Under the Sehat Sahulat Programme, registered families are able to get free treatment worth up to Rs1m
from certain public and private hospitals. About 30m families are to be given Sehat Sahulat cards in
Punjab, whereas the scheme already covers KP`s 6.7m families.
 According to the National Command and Operation Centre, 30pc of Pakistan`s total population and 46pc
of its eligible population is fully vaccinated.
 The bill recommended doing away with Section 325 of the Pakistan Penal Code that makes both suicide
and attempted suicide a criminal offence. Under the law, attempted suicide carries a jail term of up to one
year or a fine, or both.
 According to the WHO, there were 19,331 suicides in 2019 in Pakistan.
 THE Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution of the WHO declared B.1.1.529 a variant of concern on
Nov 26, 2021, and named it Omicron.
 The WHO director general in his speech on Dec 29, 2021, said, `Right now, Delta and Omicron are twin
threats that are driving up cases to record numbers, which again is leading to spikes in hospitalizations
and deaths. I am highly concerned that Omicron being more transmissible, circulating at the same time as
Delta is leading to a tsunami of cases.
 COVID: Tom Standage, editor of the Economist`s `World Ahead in 2022` publication, optimistically counts
among the top 10 trends the transition of the pandemic to an endemic as a result of anti-viral pills,
upgraded vaccines and antibody treatments. But he concludes tellingly that the virus will remain deadly in
the developing world while rich countries will extricate themselves from COVID.
 The UN`s relief agency OCHA has launched an appeal for an unprecedented $41 billion to help 183
million people who need life-saving assistance across the world.
 According to UNAIDS, Pakistan has the fastest-growing number of AIDS cases among all Asian countries.
In fact, the large outbreak of HIV/AIDS in Ratodero in 2019, when more than 1,440 people were infected
with HIV, owed to the reuse of disposable syringes by a local doctor. 

24
 Country also has one of the highest prevalence rates of hepatitis C at 9pc. Between 12m and 15m people
in Pakistan are reportedly infected with hepatitis B or C, both blood-borne, while around 150,000 new
cases are reported every day in hospitals across the country.
 ACCORDING to the GLOBOCAN cancer statistics for 2020 released by the International Agency for
Research on Cancer, 5,008 Pakistani women were diagnosed with cervical cancer, while 3,197 succumbed
to the disease, making the death rate for cervical cancer in the country a staggering 60 per cent.
 Global cancer incidence is expected to rise by 75pc over the next 20 years. LMICs are expected to account
for greater than 95pc of deaths due to cervical cancer by 2030. 
 Hepatitis (second highest global prevalence), tuberculosis (fifth largest burden globally), HIV (the highest
rate of increase in new cases in Asia-Pacific).
 New variant, the `Omicron BA2`, has been detected in parts of Asia, Europe and the US.
 Tuberculosis is now considered the second most lethal infectious disease in the world after Covid-19.
However, TB is both preventable and treatable. In 2020, some 1.5m people died of this disease globally.
Two-thirds of these deaths were reported from eight countries most of them in India, followed by China,
Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa.
 As many as 600,000 cases are reported in Pakistan every year, out of which at least 27,000 are said to be
of the multidrug-resistant variety. About 44,000 people die of the infection.
 POLIO: For over a whole year, 15 months to be exact, Pakistan remained polio-free. Bannu: The
National Institute of Health confirmed the presence of type-1 wild poliovirus in a 15-monthold boy who
was paralyzed. Meanwhile, earlier in the month, wild poliovirus was also detected in environmental
samples from Bannu. Before this, the only polio case had surfaced in Baluchistan’s Qilla Abdullah district
in January last year. According to the WHO, not detecting a single case of polio in an entire year did not
necessarily mean that the virus had been eliminated in the country. The virus usually resurfaces when
another high-transmission season begins.
 Polio: In April, after a gap of 15 months, two polio cases emerged in the country both in Mir Ali council of
North Waziristan. 
 Polio:  On January 27, 2022 Pakistan marked one year without any cases of polio. However, four months
later in April, a type-1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) was confirmed in a child from North Waziristan by the
Pakistan National Polio Laboratory at the NIH, Islamabad.
 Last year Pakistan saw just one case of WPV1 or wild poliovirus.
  8 cases of cVDPV2 or vaccine-derived poliovirus emerged in Pakistan during the year.
 The 12th case of wild poliovirus surfaced second week of July in a 21-month-old boy 
 HIV: Pakistan is the second-largest country in South Asia when it comes to the HIV epidemic as over
200,000 adults and children continue to live with the virus according to the National AIDS programme and
the UNAIDS.
 Cases of HIV/AIDS have decreased globally, in Pakistan they reportedly increased by 84pc between 2010
and 2020. At present, there are around 200,000 HIV/AIDS cases in the country, with thousands being
reported every year.
 The National AIDS Control Programme reported that more than 200 patients were diagnosed with
HIV/AIDS in Pakistan in the last six months (by Aug) alone, bringing the total tally of cases to 5202.
 The prevalence of tobacco use in Pakistan is around 24pc, and 10.7pc of the youth aged between13 and
15 years are smoking. With a high population growth rate and 62.7pc of the population under 25,
 21 June 2022: Almost 6,000 patients were screened for hepatitis B, C and HIV. At the moment, the Sindh
hepatitis programme caters to only 72,000 cases a year, when it needs to treat at least 200,000 annually.

25
 Hepatitis: The national rate of hepatitis C prevalence hovers between 4pc and 8pc, with an estimated
150,000 new cases being reported every day. 
 Pakistan is committed to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, including SDG 3.4 that is related to
the burden of non-communicable diseases and mental disorders; the Comprehensive Mental Health
Action Plan 2013-2030 by the WHO; and a National Vision 2025 to improve the health of all citizens,
including those who are the most vulnerable.
 Pakistan has the second highest global burden of hepatitis C. Yet, only about 21pc are reportedly
diagnosed, while between 13pc and 15pc receive treatment .
Social Issues
 Today, more than 60pc of the country is aged below 30 and four million youths are entering the working
age every year. The face of the country is changing rapidly and this trend doesn`t peak until 2050, so
every year the country is getting younger and younger.
 Transparency International`s National Corruption Perception Survey, conducted this year across all four
provinces, reiterates how rampant corruption is in Pakistan. The report`s findings have already warranted
economic and political analysis.
 Almost a decade ago, then NAB chairman Fasih Bokhari estimated that Pakistan loses around Rs7 billion
per day to corruption.
 Poverty: Inequality Report 2022, The richest 10pc of the world control a whopping 76pc of the world`s
wealth.
 World Press Freedom Index Report 2021 compiled by Reporters Sans Frontières this week paints a dark
and foreboding picture of global press freedom.
 Global aviation watchdog ICAO
 Federal Investigating Agency (FIA) received a total of 102,356 complaints related to cybercrime in the
year 2021.
 Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act 2016.
 Pakistan is not a signatory to the Convention on Cybercrime which is also known as the Budapest
Convention.
 According to official figures, KP produces 430 MMCFD gas while its requirement is 216 MMCFD, thus
leaving a surplus of about 200 MMCFD. KP has long been demanding that with less than 10pc of its
population being gas consumers and being a gas-surplus.
 “Some say the cyber-attack could be the prelude for other activities.”
 Indonesia is the fourth and Pakistan the fifth most populous country in the world.
 Today, an estimated 3.8 billion people the world over use social media and for a great deal of people this is
their primary source of information and news.
 Human Development Index of the richest 20pc of Pakistanis is similar to the average in China and Egypt while
the poorest 20pc have an HDI which is lower than Ethiopia and comparable to Chad.
 But the city`s share of national expenditure remains less than 5pc! `The budget of Karachi Metropolitan
Corporation is only PKR 25 billion (US$149 million) compared to the equivalent US$4.6 billion of the Mumbai
Municipal Corporation.
 Senate body passes metrological institute bill pending for 25 years.
 Pakistan in Corruption index 140 out of 180 countries.
 Ice Hockey Championship in Skardu
 10 soldiers were martyred in a terrorist attack on a check post in Baluchistan’s Kech district on the night
between Jan 25-26; one assailant was killed and several injured in the fierce exchange of gunfire.
 27 Jan PSL start. Ceremony in Karachi. season 7.1st match between Lahore Qalandars and Multan Sultan.

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 Ravi Urban Development Authority (RUDA) Act, 2020. Land: 100,000 acres
 Pakistan`s housing shortage, according to the World Bank, is estimated at 10m units.
 Local bodies, first introduced during Gen Ayyub’s military regime
 Blasphemy under Section 295-B 
 Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997
 Currently, our population stands at some 229 million people. Of these, five per cent are aged 65 and
older, and 61pc are aged between 15 and 64. And of the latter, to break it down further age wise, 30pc
are between the ages of 10 and 24, while 34pc are in the O to 14 category.
 Minorities:  According to a report compiled by the National Commission for Human Rights, with support
from the EU, nearly half the posts reserved for religious minorities in government jobs are vacant and to
add insult to injury 80pc of the non-Muslims who have been appointed under the 5pc quota for them are
working in low-paid sanitation jobs.
Articles of Constitution
 According to Article 158: `The province in which a well-head of natural gas is situated shall have
precedence over other parts of Pakistan.
 Article 140 A of constitution “LGs needed to have `meaningful authority and responsibility` in the
administrative, political and financial spheres”.
 As per article 95 of the Constitution, a vote of no-confidence against the prime minister requires at least
20 per cent of the total MNAs
 Article 63-A suggests disqualification on grounds of defection for not obeying the parliamentary party
directions in the election of the prime minister, chief minister or vote of confidence or no confidence or
money bill etc.
 ARTICLE 260(3) of the Constitution though declares the Ahmedis/Qadianis as non-Muslims.
 Section 295-B (`Defiling of Holy Quran`) and Section 295-C (`Use of derogatory remarks in respect of the
Holy Prophet [PBUH]`)
 They are entitled to the fundamental right to life under Article 9, the fundamental right to practice their
religion under Article 20, the fundamental right to safeguards for religious education under Article 22, the
fundamental right to equality under Article 25 and the right to enjoy the protection of law and be treated
in accordance with the law
 Article 209 of the Constitution sets out that a decision by this councils the only way a judge can be
removed from office, if the judge is either `incapable of performing the duties of office` or found `guilty of
misconduct`.
 Anti-defection Article 63-A was introduced in the Constitution through the unanimously-passed 14th
Amendment.
 Person`s privacy of home and dignity is a fundamental right under Article 14 of the Constitution.
 Fundamental rights in particular Articles 9 (life), 10 (arrest) and 14 (dignity and privacy). Fundamental
rights cannot be treated lightly as their sanctity is protected by Article 8(2) of the Constitution.
 Article 58: Under Article 58 of the constitution of Pakistan, a Prime Minister ceases to hold office if the
majority of members of the National Assembly, equating to 172 members (out of 342), vote in favor of no-
confidence.
 Constitution`s Article 19, which guarantees the right to freedom of speech, as well as suggests the
circumstances in which this right can be restricted, in a manner opposed to the spirit of the article, in
order to arbitrarily censor Mr. Khan`s views.
 Articles 4 (law for the protection of every citizen), 9 (right to life) and 14 (right to dignity),

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 Article 243 makes it clear that the `Federal Government shall have control and command of the Armed
Forces`
 Article 245 lays out military’s function, which is to `defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat
of war` and `act in aid of civil power when called upon to do so`
 Article 233 explains that the president will have the power to suspend certain fundamental rights under
the emergency proclamation.
 Article 234 deals with the power to impose emergency in case of failure of the constitutional machinery in
a province.
USA
 Diplomatic neutrality is compromised when countries get involved in bloc politics that aims to undercut
ideological or economic rivals. The lessons of being part of the anticommunist blocs SEATO and CENTO
should not be lost on Pakistan.
 The United States on Friday imposed extensive human rights-related sanctions on dozens of people and
entities tied to China, Myanmar, North Korea and Bangladesh, and added Chinese artificial intelligence
(AI) company Sense Time Group to an investment blacklist.
 The US military spent $14 trillion during two decades of war in Afghanistan and the Middle East,
enriching arm manufacturers, dealers and contractors.
 The Pentagon spent $6 million on a project that imported nine Italian goats to boost Afghanistan`s
cashmere market. The project never reached scale. ` Five defense companies Lockheed Martin Corp,
Boeing Co, General Dynamics Corp, Raytheon Technologies Corp and Northrop Grumman Corp took the
lion`s share, $2.1 trillion, for weapons, supplies and other services.
 US and Iran have had no diplomatic relations since the events of 1979.
 US added 33 Chinese firms in red flag list
 During a public interaction with the then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton some years ago in
Islamabad, a woman described America as Pakistan`s impossible-to please mother-in-law.
  Tesla chief Elon Musk has launched a hostile takeover bid for Twitter, insisting it was a `best and final
offer` and that he was the only person capable of unlocking the full potential of the platform. He offered
$43 billion..
  Ketanji Brown Jackson was sworn in on June 31, 2022 as a US Supreme Court justice, making history as
the first Black woman on the nation`s top judicial body while joining it at a time when its conservative
majority has been flexing its muscles in major rulings.
 Biden’s visit to Middle East (Israel and KSA) on 13 July
 Over the same period when China was making her place in global market, U.S. expectations darkened.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks, the disastrous Iraq war, and the 2008 ‰financial crisis all challenged
Americans’ faith in the future. According to Gallup polling data, the last time a majority of U.S.
respondents believed that their country was headed in the right direction was January 2004.
 In 2009, amid an economic crisis and war, U.S. President Barack Obama stressed the need to “begin
again the work of remaking America.” President Donald Trump’s rhetoric in 2017 was more hyperbolic,
decrying the “American carnage” of the previous eight years and promising to “protect our borders from
the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs.”
 ” In his inaugural address in 2021, President Joe Biden acknowledged that “few periods in our nation’s
history have been more challenging or difficult than the one we’re in now.”
 “America’s soft power isn’t just pop and schlock; its cultural clout is both high and low,” the German
commentator Josef Joffe wrote in a characteristic invocation of the idea in 2006. “It is grunge and
Google, Madonna and MoMA, Hollywood and Harvard.”

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 China

 Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers announced the launch of a 25-year cooperation agreement aimed
at strengthening economic and political ties.
 China has also defended Iran at the ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying
his country supports Iran`s `logical` position at the crucial talks, and adding that China hopes to see `the
interests of the Iranian people secured`.
 China-Iran strategic deal.
 Beijing Winter Olympics scheduled to be held on Friday (today). IK 4 day visit.
 Beijing had invested over $25 billion in Pakistan on CPEC projects generating 80,000 jobs, producing
5500MW of electricity and building over 500km of roads.
 IK 4-day tour to Beijing(4Feb): The companies expressed the desire to establish a $3.5 billion reprocessing
park in Gwadar within two to three years and a $350 million textile cluster over 100 acres of land on
Lahore Kasur Road, PM`s aide on CPEC Khalid Mansoor told the media.
 CPEC: The first hydropower project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 720MW Karot
Hydropower Project (HPP)-has started trial operations after two of its four units/turbines began power
generation of 360MW on a test-run basis.
 US containment policy against China: The strengthening of the US alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, the
deepening of its strategic partnership with India, the revival of the Quad, the establishment of AUKUS as a
new alliance, the US economic and trade sanctions against China, and its efforts to incite political
instability in China should be seen in that context.
 The BRI was called a ‘Chinese Marshall plan’, a ‘neo-colonial tool’ and a ‘debt trap’ aimed at destroying
developing countries’ economies and sovereignty. While Beijing continued funding infrastructure projects
and expanded its influence and outreach, the West was unable to offer an alternative to developing
countries which needed financial resources to build and upgrade their infrastructure. A report released by
Aid Data, an international development research lab based at the William and Mary’s Global Research
Institute in the US, has pointed out that during the last 20 years, Beijing has financed around 13,427
projects worth $843 billion in 165 countries. All this clearly indicates that China has been pursuing a large
role at the global stage.
 According to the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Beijing and Moscow are working to further
develop the BRICS club of major emerging economies to serve as a counterweight to the G7. The German
paper is correct. BRICS’ latest summit on June 23 was designed as a message to the G7 that the West is no
longer in the driving seat, and that Russia, China and the Global South are preparing for a long fight
against Western dominance.
 “China in many ways resembles the European Union,” says Jörg Wuttke, president of the  EU Chamber of
Commerce in China. “We have 27 member states; they have 31.” The EU
has been tryingto perfect its single market for three decades, often in the teeth of national rivalries and re
sentments. China has been battling local protectionism for just as long.
 Mr. Gingrich had visited China and warned its leaders that America would
intervene if they invaded Taiwan, which China claims. “Ok, noted,” he described
them as responding. “Since we don’t intend to attack, you won’t have to defend.
 Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s cautious advice for the country: “Observe calmly; secure our position;
cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and
never claim leadership.”

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  During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, China continued to act as an optimistic great
power. The Chinese economy was growing rapidly, Beijing’s security environment was improving, and
the country’s citizens were becoming more educated than ever before.
Afghanistan
 Human Rights Watch report: called upon UN assistance mission to Afghanistan to maintain and fully
implement its mandate to investigate human rights violation and abuse.
 Terrorist group (IS-K) has claimed over 90 attacks inside Afghanistan since Sept 18, including some major
ones, and about 85 per cent of these attacks have been targeted against the Taliban. At their end, the Taliban
have also launched a deadly crackdown on IS-K, but Salafist (Sunni reform branch) in Afghanistan complain
that this is an onslaught on their beliefs and have accused the Taliban of detaining and killing adherents of
Salafist ideology.
 In October, the IS-K claimed the targeted killing of a militant, Noor Zaman, said to be affiliated with the
Haqqani Network of the Afghan Taliban near Wana, the headquarters of South Waziristan tribal district.
 According to UN statistics, nearly half of the Afghanistan`s population faces crisis levels of hunger. The World
Food Programme estimates 3.2 million children in Afghanistan are at the risk of acute malnutrition.
 The budget of 53.9 billion Afghanis ($508m) approved on Wednesday will cover the first quarter of 2022 and
is almost entirely dedicated to funding government institutions.
 Najibullah, the last communist president of Afghanistan.

India

 During 2005-06, the discussion on Siachen was carried out in the Composite Dialogue format, while a
simultaneous effort was made through the backchannel in respect of Kashmir in what is commonly known as
the Four-Point Formula.
 Indian hydro projects: 1,000MW Pakal Dul and 48MW Lower Kalnai hydropower projects, Pakistan has also
expressed concern over the construction of 10 hydroelectric power projects Durbuk Shyok, Nimu Chilling, Kiru,
Tamasha, Kalaroos-II, Baltikulan Small, Kargil Hunderman, Phagla, Kulan Ramwari and Mandi.
 The Ganges Water Treaty between Bangladesh and India.

Russia-Ukraine

Then there’s the Russophobia of the west.

 Ukraine and Russia supply 75 per cent of the sunflower oil globally, and Russia is the largest exporter of
phosphate and potash fertilizers worldwide.
 Among these is NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who told a German paper that the conflict will
likely `last for years` and that the cause must be supported regardless of high military costs or spiraling
energy and food prices.
 June 23, 2022, the European Council granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the
European Union.
 Putin, meanwhile, demanded guarantees that NATO will not expand to Ukraine or deploy troops and
weapons there.
He told XI on Wednesday about mounting threats to Russia`s national interests from the US and the NATO
bloc, which consistently move their military infrastructure close to the Russian borders, Putin`s foreign
affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said
 Us-Ukraine: On 21 may 2022, US president signed Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriation”
providing 40million $.

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 The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on six North Koreans, one Russian and a Russian firm
it said were responsible for procuring goods from Russia and China for North Korea`s weapons programs,
an action that follows a series of North Korean missile launches, including two since last week.
 While Article 41 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter empowers the UN Security Council to impose restrictions
on economic relations in response to threats to international peace and security.
 Qatar provided 7 cargoes of LNG to Pakistan during Russian-Ukraine war to save Pakistan from scarcity of
energy sector gas.
 Crimea, not far back in history, was transferred from Russia to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev, himself a
Ukrainian.
 If Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side`s outpost against the other it should function
as a bridge between them, Kissinger wrote in the Washington Post presciently.
 Ukraine`s Vice-Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who is also minister of digital transformation.
 Ukraine`s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he has signed an application for Ukraine to join the
European Union. Got membership on June 23, 2022
 UNGA session on Ukraine issue. Pakistan didn’t attend and remain neutral. 145 voted for resolution. 35
abstained from voting including Pakistan, India, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. 5 votes against it including
Russia.
 Warsaw Pact countries “provided for a unified military command and the systematic ability to
strengthen the Soviet hold over the other participating countries.” (Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Bulgaria, Romania)
 Others reviews about Putin: UK`s PM Boris Johnson called him `a dictator`, US President Biden a
`criminal`. G7 countries said Putin `put himself on the wrong side of history`. Former president Trump, who
never studied history, called Putin `a genius` On Feb 24, Boris Johnson aspiring to Churchillian heights
thundered: `He [Putin] has attacked a friendly country without any provocation and without any credible
excuse; innumerable missiles and bombs have been raining down on an entirely innocent population; a
vast invasion is underway by land by sea and by air.` His description applied equally to the West`s
interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Grenada, Vietnam, etc.
 Two news channels of Russia: Sputnik and Russia Today are blocked by EU and UK on march 7,2022
 Winston Churchill quipped: `If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil
[Stalin] in the House of Commons.
 In 2008, Russia`s foreign ministry complained that the Ukrainian government was `infringing on the rights
of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine and deliberately eliminating the Russian language from the
country`s public life`.
 According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has an estimated total of 5,977 nuclear
warhead inventories, the largest in the world, followed by the US (5,428), China (350), France (290), United
Kingdom (225), Pakistan (165), India (160), Israel (90) and North Korea (20).
  Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear
weapons in exchange for US, UK and Russia’s guarantees to respect and defend its territorial integrity.
 Article VI of NPT talks about disarmament 
 Russia: Director General Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on July 26: Russia has decided to quit international space
station after 2024.
 Biden administration has spent about $8bn on military aid alone to Ukraine. In May, Congress passed a
$40bn supplemental budget.
 Trump:  “The Democrats are sending another $40bn to Ukraine, yet America's parents are struggling to
even feed their children.” 

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 “Fact is if the Republicans take over the House in 2022 us support to Ukraine will come to a
halt,” tweeted Ruben Gallego, a House Democrat.
 Mr. Biden’s aim in the war is unclear. His administration has stopped talking about
helping Ukraine “win”, and instead speaks of preventing the country’s defeat.
 Kherson was the first Ukrainian city the Russians managed to occupy.
 The International Monetary Fund has forecast that asset seizures, financial sanctions, oil embargoes, and
bans on the sale of military hardware, oil drilling equipment, and commercial airliner parts will cause
Russia’s economy to contract by nearly nine percent in 2022, a decline nearly three times as large as the
one that Russia suffered in 2020 as a result of COVID-19. It is hard to imagine a more striking
demonstration of the power of economic sanctions.
 By 2022, Putin’s state had accumulated more than $600 billion in financial reserves, one of the largest
stashes in the world.
 Russia’s gdp will shrink by 6% in 2022, reckons the IMF.

Sri Lanka

 Few years back: Per capita income of $3853 in nominal terms (almost twice as much as India’s) and
$12850 in PPP dollars, poverty headcount (measured at $1.90 per day) less than one percent of the
population and multidimensional poverty of 16 per cent placed the country ahead of every other country
in the region.
 Sri Lanka was the first one to pursue economic liberalization, as early as 1977, by introducing a less
restricted foreign trade and investment regime compared to the three large economies in the region. The
ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP reached 23.1 per cent
 With the highest ranks in the region on the Human Development Index, Human Capital Index, Hunger
Index, and population growth rate of 1.1 per cent, 100 per cent enrolment and completion rates in
primary and secondary schools with gender parity, literacy rate of 92 per cent, average years of schooling
of 11.1 years (almost twice that of Bangladesh), and life expectancy of 77 years the country has piled an
impressive record better than any of its neighboring countries.
 The Covid-19 pandemic did interrupt the recently gained economic momentum as a negative growth rate
of 3.6 per cent was recorded in 2020. 
 Youth literacy rates in Sri Lanka are 98.38 per cent and 99.17 per cent for men and women, respectively.
  UNDP’s Human Development Index Sri Lanka 72/189
 Global Gender Gap Report 2022 Sri Lanka 110/146

Power and War

 Power is the currency of world politics

 The leaders of the world’s most powerful countries will sometimes be tempted to flout international laws
because they can. But they fail to see the true costs to their international relations and to their own
governments
 Power can also convince leaders that they are too strong to be constrained by any rules
 Military power is not only about a nation’s armaments and the skill with which they are used. It must take
into account the resources of the enemy, as well as the contributions from allies and friends, whether in
the form of practical assistance or direct interventions.
 Dictators can certainly make bold decisions on war, but these are far more likely to be based on their own
ill-informed assumptions and are unlikely to have been challenged in a careful decision-making process.

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  According to Kissinger, `The stability of an international system depends on the degree to which it
combines the need for security with the obligation of self-restraint.
 There follows a typical Kissinger bon mot: `Power without legitimacy tempts tests of strength; legitimacy
without power tempts empty posturing. `
 War is a dispute about the measurement of power,” the historian Georey Blainey.
 Realists, from the Renaissance-era Italian writer Niccolo Machiavelli to Cold War–era U.S. policymakers
such as George Kennan and Henry Kissinger, insist that certain rules can and should be broken when it is
in a state’s interest to do so.
 Robert McNamara, the former U.S. secretary of defense, suggested in his 1995 book, In Retrospect: The
Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam, that great powers fail to see the inevitable limitations of their
sophisticated and ultramodern militaries when confronting unconventional insurgencies led by popular,
highly motivated groups.
 In 2003, U.S. and British forces invaded Iraq. U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister
Tony Blair sought to legitimize the invasion by invoking international law, pointing to a 1990 un Security
Council resolution that authorized the use of force against Iraq after it invaded Kuwait and arguing that
Iraq’s failure to comply with weapons inspections was a material breach” of the cease-fire agreed to over
a decade earlier.
 Countries that win wars are likely to be confident about their future ability to confront traditional security
threats. Countries that lose wars have little choice but to commit to building short-term military power,
fearing further setbacks on the battlefield.
 As the sociologist Steven Lukes has explained, “The wider the scope of what, in the view of one’s
conceptual framework, is going to count as power, the more power in the world one will be able to see.”
 Political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s “end of history” thesis, which posited that there were no longer
any universal ideological challengers to liberal, free-market democracy
 The international relations theorist Joseph Nye’s argument that the United States possessed an
abundance of soft power further brightened the outlook
 Soft Power: The term was coined by the American political scientist Joseph Nye in his 1990 book, “Bound
to Lead”, in which he defined it as “getting others to want what you want.
 Nye: “When we discount the importance of our attractiveness to other countries, we pay the price,” he
argued in his 2004 book, Soft Power, urging a more deliberate deployment of public diplomacy.
 Obama’s ‹first top diplomat, Hillary Clinton, as “the soft power secretary of state

Global Economy

 Emerging economies’ share of global gdp at market prices has risen from 21% to 43%. Asia’s

share of emerging market output has doubled, to 60%, led by China and India.
 Latin America represents 5% of world gdp and 1.4% of stock market value.
 Turkey: Last year gdp rose by a handsome 11%. 
Recent figures show that industrial production rose by 9.1% in the year to May.
 AMRO, an economic think tank affiliated with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
a regional club, forecast average inflation of 5.2% for its ten members this year.

IT AND TECHNOLOGY

IT exports for 2021-22 are expected to clock in at around $3.5 billion, up from $2.1 billion the previous year, a
massive 66 per cent increase. 50 per cent of companies cited the lack of experienced human resources in the

33
market, and 17 per cent cited employee retention as the reason for higher salary increments. High staff turnover
rates provide further evidence that this is an experienced and qualified worker’s market - staff turnover rate went
from the 14-18 percent range in the years from 2017 to 2020, up to a whopping 30 percent in 2021.

BRICS:

 The BRICS—which until recently has been made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—is a
forum that allows countries outside of Western developed economies to forge alliances on economic
issues. As it gets larger, its influence and economic importance grow. In its recent meeting, President
Putin announced that Russia, alongside China and other BRICS nations, was getting ready to launch a new
global reserve currency made up of a basket of BRICS currencies. If successful, such a reserve currency
would be a direct threat to the currently dominant US dollar.
 Iran and Argentina are jumping on the bandwagon because they sense an opportunity to build an
alternative alliance to Western-led globalization. In their current form, the BRICS make up around 31.5
percent of world GDP when adjusted on a purchasing power parity basis. With Iran and Argentina added,
this rises to 33 percent of the world GDP. This is a huge potential trade bloc, and 33 percent of global GDP
is certainly enough to justify a reserve currency.
 But beyond this, the potential for synergies between the countries is enormous. Taken together, the
expanded BRICS countries currently produce around 26 percent of global oil output and 50 percent of iron
ore production used to make steel. They produce around 40 percent of global corn production and 46
percent of global wheat production. If these were all traded in the new reserve currency, it would
instantly become a cornerstone of the world economy.
 Iran has applied to join it in July. On a global level, BRICS represents 40 percent of the world population
and 26 percent of the world economy. According to IMF data, China has the largest economy in this group
and accounts for more than 70 percent of the BRICS total worth of around $27.5 trillion, while India
comes in second at 13 percent and Russia and Brazil comprise the remaining 7 percent.

Climbing and Tourism and Games

 Abdul Joshi from the Shimshal valley of Hunza in Gilgit-Baltistan, who scaled the 8,849-metre Mount
Everest, is part of a 13-member expedition team, led by Nepalese mountaineer Mingma Gyalje Sherpa
(Mingma G). While 20-year-old Shehroz Kashif set the record for becoming the youngest mountaineer in
the world to summit four highest peaks after scaling the 8,516m Lhotse.
 Sirbaz Khan continues to scale new heights in his attempt to become the first mountaineer from Pakistan
to summit all 14 peaks in the world above 8,000m. 
 700 permits have already been issued to international climbers surpassing last year`s 550. 
 June 2022: a report released by the World Economic Forum showed Pakistan had risen by six points in
the International Travel and Tourism Development Index and the country seems to be luring back
tourists every year. 
 400 climbing permits have already been issued for K2.
 World Record for fastest K2 summit: Tsering Sherpa summited the peak in 12 hours 20 minutes from the
base camp while Mingma David Sherpa did it in 14 hours and 22 minutes.
 Samina Baig (first Muslim woman to scale Mount Everest in 2013)  first woman from the country to
conquer K2 the world`s second-highest peak. She was soon followed by Naila Kiani.

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 Its first gold medal at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham was delivered in record-breaking style
by weightlifter Nooh Dastagir Butt on Aug 3. Hours earlier, judoka Shah Husain Shah had won the
country`s first medal at the Games when he bagged the bronze.

Human Capital
 Human capital is the knowledge, attributes, training, skills, experience, and health of the workforce and is
a much broader and extensive concept than human development. The responsibilities of firms and
employers in human capital formation are equally critical for increasing productivity and consequently
profitability. The more investment a company makes in its employees, the chances of its productivity and
success become higher.
 Pakistan ranked 134 out of 151 countries on the World Bank’s newly introduced Human Capital Index
which is more relevant as it has multiple dimensions such as survival, expected years of learning, adjusted
schooling and health. 
 The channels through which human capital affects growth are: (a) directly as a factor of production; (b)
its influence on technological progress; (c) a proportion invested in knowledge generation that allows
growth to go indefinitely; and (d) positive externalities such as lower mortality rate, lower fertility and
better nutrition and cleanliness.
 Pakistan has improved its performance in UN Human Development Index (HDI), it is still 13 per cent
lower than the average HDI of South Asia (only better than Afghanistan
 Data from the most recent Human Development Report shows that with an HDI score of 0.557, Pakistan
ranks 154 out of 189 countries Bangladesh and India come in at 133 and 131, respectively.
 The HDI is a measure of countries’ life expectancy, education level and standards of living.

Regionalism not Globalization is dominant today

 Trade among all countries hovers around $20 trillion, a nearly ten-fold increase from 1980. International
capital flows also grew exponentially during that period, from $500 billion a year to well over $4 trillion.
And nearly five times as many people are traveling across borders compared with four decades ago.
 It is, however, misleading to claim that this flow of goods and services and people is always global in
scale. Globalization, as commonly understood, is mostly a myth; the reality is far closer to regionalization.
 A study by the logistics company DHL and scholars at the NYU Stern School of Business concluded, “If
one pair of countries is half as distant as another otherwise similar pair of countries, this greater physical
proximity alone would be expected to increase the merchandise trade between the closer pair by more
than three times.”
 A study of the Fortune Global 500, a list of the world’s largest companies, shows that two of every three
dollars of their sales come from their home regions. A study of 365 prominent multinationals found that
just nine of them were truly global, meaning that Asia, Europe, and North America each accounted for at
least 20 percent of their sales.
 International capital flows are also more regional than global.
 Between 1993 and 2007, Mexico’s economy more than doubled in size, thanks in large part to the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), reached in 1993 with Canada and the United States.
 NAFTA was revised in 2020—it is now the U.S.- Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
 Asian nations banded together through the free-trade area of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
and later the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Global arrangements such as the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the successor to a

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 pact that was engineered by Washington but that the United States later abandoned, are so far more the
exception than the rule.
 According to the Asian Development Bank, the proportion of the region’s trade that takes place internally
has risen from 45 percent in 1990 to nearly 60 percent today, surpassing North America and closing in on
Europe
 It’s not just technological and demographic shifts and climate change that will curb globalization and favor
more regionalization; political change is playing a role, as well.

YOUTH BULGE

PAKISTAN is the 46th youngest country with a median age of 20.4 years among 237 countries and territories in the
world, according to UN Population Division statistics released this year. Among nine (if Iran is included) South Asian
countries, Pakistan is the second youngest, ranked only after Afghanistan. According to the 2017 population
census, 64 per cent of the country`s population was under 30 years and more than 60 million or 29pc of the total
population belonged to the 15-to-29-years segment categorized as youth.

Pakistan today faces daunting challenges: an economic meltdown, governance collapse, brazen
corruption, violent extremism, virulent militancy and organized crime.
The 21st century has seen an emergence of two quadrupeds the Russian bear and the Chinese
dragon that might bring American supremacy down to earth.
MOMENTOUS developments spearheaded by China`s dramatic rise, growing Sino-US rivalry,
an assertive Russia, and the emergence of new centers of power in Asia, Africa and Latin
America are reshaping the global geopolitical chessboard.

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