The Impacts of Coastal Flooding On Physical Infrastructure 2022v1.0

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The Impacts of Coastal

Flooding on Physical
Infrastructure:
Case Studies in Fiji, Kiribati,
and Papua New Guinea
May 2022
Project Team: WAI

Jesus Davis
Daphne Henion
Mary Janell Murro
C FE- DM HA .O RG
P U B A . M A N O A . H A WA I I . E D U
The Impacts of Coastal Flooding on Physical Infrastructure:
Case Studies in Fiji, Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea
May 2022
University of Hawai‘i, College of Social Sciences, Public Administration
Client Organization:
Department of Defense, Center for Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance
(CFE-DM)
Project Team: WAI

Jesus Davis
Daphne Henion
Mary Janell Murro
Edited by: Leigh Sholler
v0.1
Disclaimer
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level, and post-graduate students and professional level interns participating in the ARIS Academic
Partnership Program. The report has been prepared in good faith based on resources available at the
time of publication. Information was gathered from the public domain, from local and government
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary................................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 2
Key Terms....................................................................................................................................................2
Country Profiles..................................................................................................................................... 3
Fiji................................................................................................................................................................3
Kiribati ........................................................................................................................................................3
Papua New Guinea......................................................................................................................................4
Defining the Issue.................................................................................................................................. 5
Coastal Flooding..........................................................................................................................................5
Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure............................................................................................5
Government Response Efforts....................................................................................................................6
Data and Methods................................................................................................................................. 6
Case Study - Fiji...................................................................................................................................... 7
Coastal Flooding..........................................................................................................................................7
Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure............................................................................................8
Government Response Efforts....................................................................................................................9
Case Study - Kiribati............................................................................................................................. 10
Coastal Flooding........................................................................................................................................10
Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure..........................................................................................11
Government Response Efforts..................................................................................................................12
Case Study - Papua New Guinea........................................................................................................... 13
Coastal Flooding........................................................................................................................................13
Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure..........................................................................................13
Government Response..............................................................................................................................14
Summary of Findings........................................................................................................................... 15
Conclusion........................................................................................................................................... 15
Lessons Learned .......................................................................................................................................15
Recommendations....................................................................................................................................16
Future Studies...........................................................................................................................................18
Acronyms and Abbreviations............................................................................................................... 19
References........................................................................................................................................... 20
The Impacts of Coastal Flooding on Physical Infrastructure: Case Studies in Fiji, Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea i
Executive Summary
Pacific Island Countries (PIC) are situated in one of the most isolated areas on the planet in a region
that is defined by its vast expanse of ocean (Scanlan & Wilson, 2018). As a result of their location,
island states in the southern Pacific also must contend with several environmental hazards, such as
coastal flooding, that can wreak havoc on multiple dimensions of their societies, to include physical
infrastructure and economic sectors. As climate change continues to influence natural hazards, many
PICs bear the brunt of the negative impacts of this evolving reality (Hermann & Kempf, 2017). Increases
in frequency and intensity of storm systems, along with changes to wind and wave patterns, can further
erode the coping capacity of developing island states.
This research focuses on the implications of coastal flooding for physical infrastructure in Fiji,
Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea (PNG), and it further examines how the governments of these countries
are responding to extreme water hazards. We assess the impacts of coastal flooding in each country
within the context of their unique locations, their physical infrastructure, and how they have historically
been impacted by coastal flooding. We incorporate country profiles to provide a general overview of
geography, topography, population, and economic structure and to identify the physical and human
environments that make these countries especially vulnerable.
Based on our analysis, three recommendations are provided. First, a formal reporting system or
standard should be adopted so that countries across Oceania can contribute to and access data. Second,
governments should integrate the Cluster Approach into their national disaster management systems and
provide financial support for this adoption. Lastly, governments should formalize use of existing social
protection systems to provide support to the populations most vulnerable to the impacts of hazards.
The Impacts of Coastal Flooding on Physical Infrastructure: Case Studies in Fiji, Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea 1
Introduction
Climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, and this
onslaught contributes to infrastructure damage in countries within the Oceania region. Due to
their geographic location, Fiji, Kiribati, and PNG are susceptible to extreme hydrological hazards,
especially coastal flooding that is a result of chronic sea level rise and high tide events (Nicholls, 2007).
Additionally, storm surge from tropical cyclones may eventually impact these PICs (Nicholls, 2007).
Indeed, Nicholls (2007) points to losses of life, property, and livelihoods from coastal flooding as
dominating the drastic impacts to which small islands are most vulnerable.
This research focuses on the implications of coastal flooding for physical infrastructure in Fiji,
Kiribati, and PNG, as well as how the governments of these countries are responding to extreme water
hazards. We assess the impacts of coastal flooding in each country within the context of their unique
locations, their physical infrastructure, and how they have historically been impacted by coastal flooding.
We incorporate country profiles to provide a general overview of geography, topography, population,
and economic structure and to identify the physical and human environments that make these countries
especially vulnerable. In terms of physical infrastructure, it is important to recognize that Fiji, Kiribati,
and PNG are in different stages of socio-economic development and, therefore, some of their populations
encounter challenges in accessing essential services even outside emergency situations. Because of this,
specific physical and social vulnerabilities are identified for each country. We examine these existing
vulnerabilities to highlight some of the critical barriers the governments, supporting non-government
organizations (NGO), and other stakeholders face in providing emergency management services and
implementing preventative measures for future coastal flooding.
Key Terms
Examples of water-related climate hazards are floods, droughts, landslides, and storm surges (ABD,
2015). To narrow the scope, this study is focused on coastal flooding, which is defined as “an inundation
of land areas from the combination of sea level rise, storm surge, and tides” (Preisser, 2020, para. 2).
Coastal flooding impacts many types of critical infrastructure, including physical infrastructure such as
communications network components, airports, roadways, navigable waterways, and water and sewer
plants. In terms of government impact, “resilience” describes the ability of a system, community, or
society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform, and recover from the
effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner (UNDRR, 2022-a).
Country Profiles
Fiji
Located in the South Pacific, Fiji consists of 332 islands, around 110 of which are inhabited, and a large
number of smaller islets (World Bank Group, 2021a). The total population of Fiji is estimated at nearly
900,000 (Fiji Bureau of Statistics, 2018). The natural topography of Fiji is defined by low-lying coastal
areas and mountainous regions, with some 90% of the country’s population living in the coastal areas,
which are exposed to flooding (UNCDF, 2020). Vanua Levu and Viti Levu, which neighbor each other,
are the largest islands and are home to 87% of Fiji’s population (Secretariat of the Pacific, 2021; World
Population Review, 2022).
Fiji’s economy is mainly based on services with a relatively high dependence on revenue from tourism
(World Bank Group, 2021a). This dependence is a long-term economic challenge due to the impacts
storm systems have on tourist sites, as Tropical Storm Winston did in 2016 (Esler, 2016). Additional
economic damage stems from the impact of flooding events on Fiji’s coastal and marine settlements and
ecosystems (World Bank Group, 2021a). An extensive assessment conducted by the World Bank Group
in partnership with the Government of Fiji (GOF) and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and
Recovery (GFDRR) found the need for an investment of about US$4.3 billion – an amount almost equal
to Fiji’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) – by the year 2027, to strengthen the country’s resilience to
climate change (World Bank Group, 2021a). Such an expenditure is rendered more reasonable when GOF
reveals that cyclones and storm surges already cause annual losses equivalent to 5.8% of GDP (UNCDF,
2020).
Though not considered the most at-risk PIC, Fiji still faces significant hurdles and persistent
challenges (UNCDF, 2020). The main hazards affecting Fiji are floods and tropical cyclones, a result of
the country’s disposition within the tropical cyclone belt (UNCDF, 2020). Every year, the islands of Fiji
experience direct and indirect effects of multiple cyclones (WBG, 2021), and coastal flooding can result
from storms that do not even strike the country directly. After extensive non-storm flooding in 2009,
nearly 50% of affected family farms were expected to see their owners/inhabitants fall below the poverty
line, and 40% were later assessed as not capable of meeting basic nutritional needs (UNCDF, 2020). These
catastrophic events are accompanied by more frequent but smaller scale flooding events that slowly erode
communities’ ability to sustain themselves, and after many small-scale coastal floods, one large-scale
event has the potential to wipe out lives and livelihoods that have been weakened.
Kiribati
Located in the central Pacific Ocean, the Republic of Kiribati comprises 32 coral atolls and one
elevated limestone island (World Bank Group, 2021b; World Health Organization, 2017). The country
has three main island groups: the Gilbert Islands in the west, the Phoenix Islands in the center, and the
Line Islands in the east (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction [UNDRR], 2020; World Bank
Group, 2021b).
Kiribati has a total population of 120,740 people, and more than half of the population lives on
the island of South Tarawa, where the country’s capital, Tarawa, is located (Secretariat of the Pacific
Community, 2021). The rest of the population lives scattered on 27 other islands; five islands within
the Phoenix and Line groups remain uninhabited (Government of Kiribati, 2021). Due to Kiribati’s
geographical location and typology, a lack of natural resources and fertile soil limits the country’s
ability to develop agricultural resources (UNDRR, 2020). Thus, Kiribati relies on its fisheries as a source
of livelihoods; fisheries are not only a source of food and employment but also of revenue (UNDRR,
2020). In 2016, more than 90% of Kiribati’s exports were fish products. Thus, climate change impacts on
fisheries and other marine resources have serious implications for Kiribati (World Bank Group, 2021b).
The elevation of Kiribati’s low-lying coral atolls is no more than 4 meters (13 feet) above sea level
(UNDRR, 2020; World Bank Group, 2021b). The country runs along the Equator and covers a vast ocean
area of 3.5 million square kilometers (km2; 1.35 million square miles), greater than the size of India;
however, it has a total land area of only 726 km2 (280 square miles), which is smaller than New York City
(Government of Kiribati, 2020). Because of its location along the Equator, Kiribati mostly evades the
threat of tropical cyclones (World Bank Group, 2009) because hurricanes and cyclones that form in the
tropics generally drift away from the Equator rather to toward or over it. However, hazards like sea level
rise and storm surge from extreme weather events remain a considerable threat to Kiribati (World Bank
Group, 2009).
Papua New Guinea

PNG comprises the eastern part of the island of New Guinea and 600 smaller islands and atolls
(UNDR, 2019). The total population of PNG was estimated to be nearly 9 million in 2020 (Bourke,
2021). The majority of PNG’s population live in rural areas, and the country’s people are heavily
dependent on subsistence farming (UNDP, 2022). The topography of PNG is unique and diverse; the
country is composed of vast coastlines, three of the largest tropical forests in the world, and snow caps
atop Mount Wilhelm, which rises to 4,509 meters (14,793 feet) above sea level (Papua New Guinea, 2022,
p. 7).
PNG is said to be one of the world countries most vulnerable to disasters (UNDRR, 2019, p. 6). In
part, this vulnerability stems from widespread poverty and poor infrastructure (UNDP, 2020). However,
the country’s topography is also at the root of exposure to climate-driven impacts such as sea level rise,
coastal flooding, and landslides. Indeed, in its Second National Communication under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2014), the country acknowledged that
“the risk is heightened due to the majority of socio-economic activities and infrastructure development
residing in coastal areas or vulnerable areas along rivers or in highlands.”
Defining the Issue
Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding is defined as “an inundation of land areas from the combination of sea level rise,
storm surge, and tides” (Preisser, 2020, para. 2). Coastal flooding results in losses of life, property, and
livelihoods and is a recurring challenge for many communities in the Oceania region (Nicholls, 2007).
The immediate human impacts of coastal flooding include injuries, fatalities, and damage to mental
health and social wellbeing from depression, grief, and post-traumatic stress disorder (World Health
Organization, 2015). Affected communities may experience limited connectivity with one another as a
result of post-disaster isolation and dispersion (Khor, Kronenberg, & Tumbarello, 2016). Additionally,
island economies may experience longer-term increased production costs due to disruptions to demand
and already unsustainable natural resource exploitation (Khor, Kronenberg, & Tumbarello, 2016). Island
economies that rely heavily on imported goods are at especially high risk when a weather event disrupts
the supply chain (McMichael et al., 2003). Lastly, PICs may experience a long-term increase in poverty
for various financial reasons, including abusive loan agreements (McMichael et al., 2003), foreign aid
disrupting local pricing regimes, or a loss of access to credit among affected communities.
The severity of coastal flooding impacts can be exacerbated by regionally higher sea levels associated
with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea level rise (Hoeke et al., 2013). ENSO is a
cyclic weather pattern impacting the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it causes variations in ocean surface
temperatures with two extreme phases – i.e., El Niño (the warming phase) and La Niña (the cooling
phase) (“What is ENSO,” n.d.). These shifts in ocean surface temperatures have significant influence on
weather in certain regions. One example is categorized as the “spring king tides” that cycle in PNG’s
Autonomous Region of Bougainville (ARoB) (Mann & Westphal, 2016). The ARoB is home to an
exceptionally at-risk population, and recent king tide events have displaced tens of thousands of people
from this region (Finkeo, 2021). As sea level rise influences the frequency of such high-water events,
communities not only experience human losses, but their governments also experience losses of revenue
and higher demands on what budget resources they retain.
Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure

Extreme weather events disrupt physical infrastructure and industries (Deshmukh, Ho Oh, &
Hastak, 2011). Utilities facilities and transportation routes are at risk of coastal flooding from sea level
rise, tropical cyclones, and storm surges (Espinet, Schweikert, van den Heever, & Chinowsky, 2016)
in countries where these facilities cluster along at-risk, densely populated, coastal zones. Moreover,
saltwater intrusion from sea level rise increases the salinity of groundwater basins and well waters,
and this salinization leads to limited crop yields and disrupted access to safe drinking water (Public
Health Institute Center for Climate Change and Health, 2016). Governments within PICs have not yet
been able to develop physical infrastructure capable of withstanding disasters given the combination of
low elevation and limited land availability on small islands (Solomon & Forbes, 1999), both of which
make it difficult and costly for islands to build and link infrastructure networks (Herrera, Sánchez,
Castañeda, & Porras, 2020). Other regions containing many small islands face extra costs if they seek to
link infrastructure resources among islands (Kumar, Gopalakrishnan, & Jayasinghe, 2020). Given the
increasing intensity and frequency of extreme water events, it is clear that physical infrastructure damage
is an urgent issue that will require concerted planning and execution to provide resilient infrastructure
links for at-risk communities.
Government Response Efforts

Government efforts to address the impacts of coastal flooding vary across the countries of Fiji,
Kiribati, and PNG. Nonetheless, there are some common risk reduction, mitigation, and adaptation
strategies that include streamlining finance, coordinating government authorities, and legislation to
support climate initiatives (Organizations for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2009,
p. 7). To carry out and support effective government responses and processes, many global stakeholders
engage in coordination and funding for these developing countries (Dodds, 2015, p. 3). Some of
these stakeholders are regional governments, while other stakeholders include the rural communities
themselves, local and global NGOs, and international partnerships (Cuthbertson, 2019). Efforts in
which these stakeholders engage to address extreme water damage to physical infrastructure vary, but
common themes include local government initiatives promoted through funding and policy, national
and international long-term partnerships, and approaches based in community training and traditional
knowledge.
Despite efforts to build resilience, the priority preparedness and response actions tend to be
nature-based approaches for preparedness and relocation of people, property, and facilities during an
unfolding disaster response. Nature-based approaches look at protecting people and livelihoods in
rural communities through natural infrastructure such as seawalls and coastal revegetation (McMichael,
Powell and Ramatu, 2019); however, these standalone efforts do not provide holistic resiliency for
at-risk communities. Meanwhile, there are a number of complexities and intangible costs associated
with relocation, and they can include loss of cultural identity, damage to indigeneity, and various
psychological, social, and emotional impacts (COP23, 2017). In the three countries in this study,
people who have lived in rural areas are solely dependent on their traditions and cultural knowledge,
and it will be difficult to relocate (SPC, SPREP, PIFS, UNDP, UNISDR, & USP, 2016). Thus, as impacted
communities assert more agency ahead of, during, or after a natural disaster, government pressure
to relocate may result in greater resistance and more demands for culturally informed, nature-based
solutions that bolster resilience rather than admitting defeat and retreating.
Data and Methods

To begin the data collection for the case studies, team WAI reviewed resources highlighted by the
United States Indo-Pacific Command’s Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian
Assistance (CFE-DM) including data from ReliefWeb, the Pacific Community - Pacific Data Hub, the
World Bank Data Bank, Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC), United States Agency
for International Development (USAID), the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
(GFDRR), and Lowy Institute. Additionally, many institutions develop reports relating to climate
change, and those consulted include the Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch and the Asia-Pacific
Disaster Report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN
ESCAP).
For our methodology, we identified a focal coastal flooding event for each country. The particular
events were selected because the countries had either experienced or identified them as key occurrences.
For Fiji, 2016’s Tropical Cyclone Winston was selected. This storm was one of the strongest storms ever
recorded in the Southern Hemisphere while also being the most powerful cyclone in recorded history
to directly strike Fiji. For Kiribati, storm surge activity resulting from 2015’s Tropical Cyclone Pam was
selected as it illustrated the hazards related to even far-away storm activity. For PNG, climate change-
influenced sea level rise and inundation events are examined because they are a particular concern given
the country’s diverse landscape and remote communities and these variables’ effects on coping capacity.
We assess the physical and social implications of each identified hazard. Generally, physical
implications can be measured by the level of coastal flooding and storm surge, the amount of rainfall, and
evidence of saltwater intrusion. Social implications describe the impacts upon peoples’ livelihoods and
well-being, the scale of which can be measured by the number of injuries and premature deaths due to
extreme weather events, shifts in the availability and accessibility to food and water, and risks to mental
health. Food and water security impacts can be measured by accounting damage to agricultural land and
water treatment facilities.
Lastly, we examine the broad characteristics of each of the three countries’ government disaster
responses to aid in understanding, identifying, and analyzing the implications for coastal flooding events
as well as the pervading challenges. Government actions before, during, and after a disaster event may
include employing policies that improve or distract from the humanitarian relief effort. Through the
process of comparing each country’s actual government responses, we provide general recommendations
about how to mitigate the impacts of future events.
Case Study - Fiji

Coastal Flooding
There is a long history of flooding events in Fiji’s coastal communities, but the last decade has brought
greater scrutiny due to higher flooding intensity and intrusion into communities (McMichael & Powell,
2019). A recent report predicts knock-on effects from inundation events that include detrimental impacts
in many inhabited coastal areas. Rising sea temperature and subsequently heightened storm, wave, and
wind strengths are expected to exacerbate coastal flooding (Singh et al., 2020), and a feedback loop of
damage and flooding is increasingly likely for Fiji. Although 2016’s Tropical Storm Winston is a landmark
event, non-storm flooding events are a regular occurrence due to topography and tides, and the next few
paragraphs will describe some of the common experiences of Fijian villagers.
The country’s many coastal settlements all have different concerns regarding flooding due to
geographic specifics, and plans to address each community’s needs are in varying stages of development.
For example, Fiji’s government has already assessed that the residents of Nabukadra, a village situated
northeast of the capital, Suva, on the coast of Viti Levu, require relocation as a result of storm surge,
cyclone exposure, and proximity to the ocean (Nichols, 2019). Inundation events there have caused water
levels inside structures to reach a standing depth of one meter (3.28 feet) (Nichols, 2019). Elsewhere, Viti
Levu’s southern “coral coast,” a popular tourist attraction, has been assessed as at increasing vulnerability
to flooding events (Wandres et al., 2020). What types of interventions will emerge to bolster resilience or
to relocate people and infrastructure remains to be seen.
An instance where help was too late and insufficient is the case of the coastal village of Vunidogoloa,
on Vanua Levu. There are detailed accounts of observable environmental changes that included increased
inundation and continuous erosion that came from coastal flooding (McMichael, Katonivualiku &
Powell, 2019). However, international funding efforts, which had proven effective in other countries,
could not be employed successfully to save the village’s original location (McMichael, Katonivualiku &
Powell, 2019), and Vunidogoloa’s inhabitants relocated in 2014.
Recent coastal resource management research shows that increases in storm intensity, among
other influences, have increased the physical damage caused by localized coastal flooding (Singh et
al., 2020). Accounts from several Fijian villages record useful, and previously lacking, information
regarding these events (McMichael, Katonivualiku & Powell, 2019). One of these accounts came from
the village of Narikoso, originally situated on a relatively flat area on the southeastern extension of Ono
Island (McMichael, Katonivualiku & Powell, 2019), and which has been relocated. Its original location
was subject to erosion from flooding as surface intrusion extended inland as far as 15 meters (49.2
feet) (McMichael, Katonivualiku & Powell, 2019). Narrative input from Narikoso residents captured
temporal specifics in terms of the recognition and onset of coastal flooding occurrences (McMichael,
Katonivualiku & Powell, 2019), but the lack of action plans or even a central repository for qualitative or
quantitative data meant no mitigation strategies were undertaken, leaving only the drastic – relocation –
as an option.
Having already seen settlements disbanded and relocated, Fiji is, therefore, at heightened alert for
areas where coastal flooding has reached a point where relocation is the only option. Nonetheless, other
options may be possible in many settlements, and narrative input from flood-affected communities can
help authorities define the problem set while tailoring policy responses.

Although regular, smaller-scale events cause their share of damage to Fiji’s coastal infrastructure, the
potential impacts of high intensity storms are exemplified by the damage caused by Tropical Cyclone
Winston. These impacts can provide planners with a baseline for future disaster response as climate
change influences the intensity and frequency of storms.
Tropical Storm Winston slammed into Fiji as a Category 5 storm on 20 February 2016 (Esler, 2016).
Described as one of the most powerful cyclones ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, Winston
packed maximum wind speeds of 233 kilometers per hour (145 miles per hour) and gusts of up to
306 kilometers per hour (190 miles per hour) (Esler, 2016). The southern coast of Vanua Levu, Fiji’s
second-largest island, experienced storm surges that reached almost 200 meters (656 feet) inland (Esler,
2016). Reports of widespread damage and destruction emerged as Fiji began to recover. Some 139,000
people and 31,000 households were directly impacted (Shelter Cluster Fiji, 2016). Some 88 clinics and
medical facilities sustained damage or destruction, and 495 schools were damaged or destroyed, a loss
that affected over 85,000 older students while 251 early childhood education centers were impacted,
displacing more than 4,000 young children from education (OCHA Regional Office, 2016). According
to Esler (2016), nearly 60% of the population of Fiji was impacted by Winston with an estimated US$915
million worth of damage sustained. Damage to transportation, water and sanitation, electricity, and
communications infrastructure alone accounted for approximately US$95 million (Esler, 2016).

In an assessment of the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Winston, the GOF estimated approximately
US$643 million dollars of damage, roughly 33% of the country’s GDP (COP23, 2017). In response
to this extreme event, GOF declared a state of emergency on 21 February 2016 (USAID, 2017, p. 2).
Authorities appealed for international assistance the following day (USAID, 2017, p. 1), and GOF
quickly re-allocated funds from the general budget to fund initial relief efforts (Mansur et al., 2017). The
government deployed over 700 evacuation centers and distributed shelter essentials such as tarpaulins,
tools, tents, solar lanterns, and lights (IOM, 2016). The response to this event involved international
NGO affiliates, humanitarian partners, and military logistical support. Initial actions taken by partners
included providing emergency shelter, food, sanitation, water, and protection to vulnerable groups
(GFDRR, 2016).
In implementing its response to Winston, Fiji utilized its existing safety net database, which provided
authorities with information on Fijians already receiving social welfare and who were, therefore,
considered among the most vulnerable populations (Mansur et al., 2017). Fiji is the first PIC to employ
such a social protection system, and even before Winston, the government had worked to obtain
financial assistance and coherently streamline the system to ensure it could directly deliver assistance to
key populations (Ivaschenko, 2011). Thus, when Winston struck, the country had a tested and verified
data set. The Department of Social Welfare partnered with the World Food Programme (WFP) to ensure
that the social protection system delivered cash transfers and food and housing vouchers to half of the
country’s critically affected provinces (OCHA, 2016). The social welfare databases allowed for rapid
implementation and effective use of existing information and mechanisms (Mansur et al., 2017) and
meant that relief reached the most vulnerable populations impacted by Tropical Cyclone Winston.
An additional government response was re-activation of the Shelter Cluster, which is part of the
larger National Cluster System for Disaster Management (Cluster, 2017). Since 2005, the international
humanitarian community has developed the Cluster Approach among other operational initiatives
to enhance humanitarian response by aligning efforts within eleven sectors – i.e., Water, Sanitation,
and Hygiene (WASH), logistics, health, nutrition, shelter, emergency telecommunications, protection,
education, early recovery networks, camp coordination and management, and food security (OCHA,
2014). In most cases, Clusters are activated under emergency situations, but in some cases, such as Fiji
after Tropical Storm Winston, a Cluster can remain in operation long after an event that precipitates a
large-scale humanitarian response. The Fiji Shelter Cluster has developed a handbook to improve shelter
coordination including preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery measures to strengthen access
to safe shelter in disaster-impacted Fijian communities (Shelter Cluster Fiji, 2019). It continues to address
the long-term implications of storm and flood damage while helping build resiliency in targeted areas.
After Winston, the Shelter Cluster focused on recovery by investing in disaster preparedness and
risk reduction and, overall, provided over 36,600 households with emergency shelter materials and
19,765 households with emergency shelter awareness (Shelter, 2016). Then, the Shelter Cluster was
institutionalized as a permanent disaster management mechanism in Fiji (Cluster, 2017) where the
National Disaster Management Office coordinates national disaster management activities through the
Ministry of Rural and Maritime Development and other national, divisional, local, and community-level
agencies (UNESCO, 2022). In addition to implementing international best practice by coordinating
large-scale humanitarian responses via the Cluster Approach, Fiji’s incorporating a Cluster outlook to
long-term recovery and risk reduction reveals a collaborative outlook on addressing the challenges of
chronic flooding and climate change.
Case Study - Kiribati

Coastal Flooding
Kiribati is susceptible to the effects of coastal flooding based on location, topography, and population
distribution (Duvat et al., 2013). Kiribati’s most populated zones are situated on or near the Equator,
and as such, severe storm impacts are rare (Smithers & Hoeke, 2014) as direct tropical cyclone strikes
are uncommon (Rankey, 2011; Hoeke et al., 2021). Over the last 100 years, only one tropical cyclone has
been recorded, and that struck in the northern extension of Kiribati’s Gilbert Island chain (Rankey, 2011),
islands that stretch above the Equator. Though this overall insulation from major storms may appear to
reduce risk, some factors require consideration. Even though there may not be direct impacts from major
storm systems, secondary effects such as storm surges and coral reef erosion can and still do occur on
these already at-risk atolls (Hoeke et al., 2021), and coastal flooding is exacerbated by these effects.
Increasingly frequent and intensifying cycles of flooding boost the vulnerability of low-lying nations,
such as Kiribati (Hoeke et al., 2013; Hoeke et al., 2021). Though Kiribati may not have a significant
land area, its various islands encompass a relatively large ocean area and are, thereby, extremely isolated
(Sabūnas et al., 2021). The 2015 passage of Tropical Cyclone Pam caused flooding and damage to
communities in Kiribati as well as in nearby Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna (Hoeke et al., 2021). A recent
study has projected that storm surges, along with the pace of sea level rise, can have compounding effects
that could inundate more than 50% of the island of Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati (Sabūnas
et al., 2021). The lagoon sides of atoll reef islands are also at risk even though they may experience
relatively few extreme events. Even though waves in atoll lagoons tend to be smaller, Rankey (2011)
found that “a significant wave height of 2 meters [6.56 feet] can occur at least once in 50 years.”
For Kiribati, increases in population may exacerbate challenges. South Tarawa, for example, has
experienced an influx of people, some of whom have been required to settle in more precarious locations
(Donner & Webber, 2014). Research on the inundation phenomenon has leveraged local information
in the form of resident input coupled with remote sensing-based measurements to better estimate what
specific zones may be more at-risk than others throughout the low-lying islands and islets (Rankey,
2011). Based on local interviews, the researchers were able to factor in accurate estimates for an area’s
actual experienced flooding level, and data yielded an expected flood height of approximately 1.5 meters
(5.9 feet) in South Tarawa (Duvat et al., 2013).
The technical data used by Duvat, Magnan, and Pouget adds context to the qualitative findings that
describe the human dimension to what 1.5 meters (5.9 feet) of water height actually means. Remote
sensing-based geographic information system (GIS) data was used to measure the specific terrain
elevation and gradations (Duvat et al., 2013). This GIS-sourced information was critical to allowing
researchers to assess the specific elevation of the islands with relative accuracy, a specificity that helped
estimate the extent of terrain intrusion (Duvat et al., 2013). These data were critical components towards
assembling a situational snapshot. Going one step further, this research also took community shore
development into account to see the population exposure to coastal flooding and erosion events (Duvat
et al., 2013). Based on these three types of data - i.e., local input, topographic remote-sensed GIS, and
residential development near the shoreline zones - the report captured informative assessments on the
actual available inhabitable land (Duvat et al., 2013). It is partly expected, then, that this data will inform
future community development or “retreat from shoreline” plans to mitigate the impacts of coastal
flooding.

With rising sea levels and climate change-induced shifts in the frequency, intensity, and track of
tropical storms looming over Kiribati, a detailed accounting of the damage caused by a recent, major
event is useful for understanding the potential future impacts of surges and storms. In March 2015,
Tropical Cyclone Pam brought turbulent seas, conditions that fueled king tides that, in turn, resulted
in widespread coastal flooding in Kiribati (Ministry of Information, Communication, Transport, and
Tourism Development (MICTT) and Ministry of Infrastructure and Sustainable Energy (MISE), 2019).
Even without a direct hit in Kiribati, impacts from Pam included damage to major causeway bridges
and hospitals, disruptions to communications and travel, and destruction of personal property (MICTT
and MISE, 2019). The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC, 2017,
p.2) report said, “Tamana, Arorae, Onotoa, and Nonouti atolls were impacted by strong winds and
inundations from storm surges.” On these islands, hundreds of homes were destroyed and approximately
half of residents were displaced (RNZ, 2015).
On the island of Tarawa, Kiribati’s most populous atoll, a coastal surge destroyed the causeway that
links two of the capital’s key neighborhoods, Betio and Bairiki, and that forms a key artery for imports
and fuel supplies (RNZ, 2015). Over 100 homes were damaged or destroyed (RCRC, 2018) while
additional damage included contamination and collapse of civilian water infrastructure such as water
wells and toilets (Hoeke et al., 2021; IFRC, 2017). Hoeke, et al (2013), emphasize that such inundation
events can damage infrastructure, change the shoreline, contaminate crucial water sources, and cause loss
of life. However, these impacts are not uniform across the island chain (Rankey, 2011) given variations
in shoreline topography, location, and settlement patterns. Moreover, the islands experience variations
in rate of change in terms of shoreline degradation (Rankey, 2011). After Tropical Cyclone Pam passed,
all impacted islands also experienced water damage from high spring tides, which affected many types of
coastal infrastructure and the local hospital (RNZ, 2015). Thus, the combined impacts of storm and tidal
damage emerge in differing ways that require differing responses.
To address the humanitarian needs arising from the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Pam, government
authorities worked with the Kiribati Red Cross Society and civil society organizations to provide affected
communities with initial relief (IFRC, 2017). Emergency relief items were delivered to 530 people on
Arorae and Tamana; these items included food rations, water storage containers, tarpaulins, hygiene kits,
and mosquito nets (IFRC, 2017). Most of the coastal communities of Tamana relocated inland where the
Government began providing water distributions 4-5 times weekly (IFRC, 2017). During the month after
the storm, the Government also assisted in opening a permanent Kiribati Red Cross location in Tamana
to work on installation of communal water tanks and to promote building safer shelters. This work
included providing more structurally sound building materials and increasing the elevation of structures
to provide a safer and more sustainable foundation, and the initiative aimed to ensure that the structures
could withstand storm surges (IFRC, 2017), thereby reducing the overall impacts of future storms and
steadily rising sea levels.
Kiribati is among the countries most reliant on external funding from non-government and external
partnerships (UNSDG, 2022). A recent government response to combat coastal flooding induced by
sea level rise and storm surges included funding assistance from the United Nations Development
Programme’s Least Developed Countries Fund (Astriviani, 2020). The aid supported the Kiribati
Adaptation Program, a project that aims to help reduce the initial impacts from storm surge-driven
coastal flooding. It provides the local government the ability to subsidize actions to plant mangroves
along the coastlines and erect storm walls, which help to preserve the ecosystem and absorb initial
impacts of the storm surge (Rosen, 2021).
During the administration of former President Anote Tong, a focus on emigration as a worst-case
scenario led the government to leverage international funding to purchase land in Fiji’s Vanua Levu
(McNamara, 2015). The policy, subsidized mostly by the government, included first helping would-be
migrants proactively plan for relocation, then providing targeted education and training so that migrants
would be employable in the locations to which they relocate (McNamara, 2015). Under the subsequent
administration, focus shifted from emigration to allocating international support to bring key areas of
Kiribati an additional 2 meters (6.56 feet) above sea level (CBS, 2017). One area targeted was Tarawa,
the capital. This initiative suggests that the country’s focus is now on resiliency and remaining in place;
as such, the country is increasingly leveraging international support since the costs of adaptation are
too high to manage alone (Iberdrola, 2022). However, this abrupt shift of policy direction between
one administration and another undermines community ability and willingness to invest in projects –
financially or via work – if they have no guarantee of future government backing.
Case Study - Papua New Guinea
Coastal Flooding
PNG is highly susceptible to flooding events, which regularly impact and displace thousands of
residents in coastal areas (Davies, 2021). Coastal floods can result from extreme tidal conditions, such as
storm surges (Morea and Samanta, 2020), and many of PNG’s settlements are situated in environments
susceptible to these events. In fact, over 80% of the population of PNG is susceptible to climate-
influenced hazards (Logistics Cluster & WFP, 2011). Without exception, every coastal administrative
region of PNG is considered a flood hazard zone with the majority being classified as at high risk
(GFDRR, 2020).
PNG contains coastal areas and numerous coral atolls that are low-lying with an estimated 500,000
people in 2,000 coastal villages vulnerable to inundation (Logistics Cluster & WFP, 2011). By their very
nature, low-lying coral atolls and islands are sensitive to certain coastal impacts. Each year on average,
23,774 people are in danger of displacement from sudden-onset flooding, with an additional 233 people
displaced by storm surge events (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2022). These events may
have further negative aspects aside from risk of bodily harm or livelihood disruption; there can also
be significant other sector impacts as the World Bank Group (2021c) suggests in its estimate that PNG
suffers an average annual loss of 0.5% of GDP to flooding.
A once in a 30-year flooding event struck PNG’s Takú Island in 2008, and it displaced as many as
75,000 people from eight different provinces (Mann & Westphal, 2016). This coastal flooding, caused
by a swell generated from over 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) away, inundated more than 50% of the
inhabited atoll and caused massive amounts of damage to personal property (Mann & Westphal, 2016).
The 2008 swell also flooded Nukatoa and caused erosion to approximately 60% of that island’s shoreline
(Smithers & Hoeke, 2014). In total, the event lasted for four days and resulted in high water levels and
waves over the lower elevation islands (Smithers & Hoeke, 2014).

Without a recent major storm event, PNG still suffers massive damage and disruption from sea level
rise and coastal flooding events driven by non-storm surges and high tides. Unprecedented events
are increasingly expected, and the risk associated for communities discourages investment in coastal
infrastructure that might otherwise allow these communities to better prepare for future events. During
the 2008 flooding event, approximately 20-30 houses were destroyed, and there was severe damage to
schools, government buildings, churches, and water tanks (Smithers & Hoeke, 2014). Public and private
financing for reconstruction is crucial but must also build in resiliency if these communities are not to be
permanently weakened by their experiences of historic flooding.
The World Bank Group (2021c) produced an estimate of the average number of people who
will experience flooding annually in PNG under four different emissions pathways, known as the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), up through the year 2100. RCP2.6 is the RCP that
assumes the greatest effort to implement mitigation strategies to achieve a low emission pathway whereas
RCP8.5 is a pathway of high emissions and extreme temperatures, sea level rises, and weather outcomes
(World Bank Group, 2021c). The World Bank estimated that an average of 34,000 people will experience
flooding annually in the period 2070-2100 under an RCP2.6 scenario while under an RCP8.5 scenario,
44,000 people will be affected by flooding per year (World Bank Group, 2021c).
Government Response
Populations on outlying atolls are among the most vulnerable coastal populations in PNG; they
are subject to the impacts of sea level rise, erosion, and flooding (Nazer, 2017). The experience of the
people of the Carteret Islands of the ARoB serves as an exemplar of the challenges that any government
and any public confront in trying to relocate away from islands and atolls that are confronting near-
permanent inundation. Beginning in 2003, the Government began to relocate Carteret families, ten at
a time, to Tinputz, another atoll also in the ARoB (Nazer, 2017). Because inundation was expected to
render the entirety of the Carterets uninhabitable by 2015, the community of Carterets Islanders began
to be informally labeled the world’s first environmental refugees (Luetz, J., & Havea, P. H., 2018). The
experience of being forced out of their homes by climate change-induced environmental impacts linked
these communities to more traditional refugee populations who have fled conflict or persecution;
however, the world’s legal structures are, as yet, unable to formally treat the Carterets Islanders as
refugees, with the protections that that label brings, because, first and foremost, they are relocating to a
space within PNG rather than crossing an international border (UNHCR, n.d.). At the same time, the
Carterets’ communities did share a common experience of traditional refugees in that, not only was
their physical community damaged, but their indigenous culture was put at risk by piecemeal relocation
(Luetz, J., & Havea, P. H., 2018).
While migration from threatened locations is often unavoidable, the PNG Government response
through policy has shown innovation. PNG is the first country in the Pacific region that has incorporated
policies of infrastructure development as an instrument to mitigate climate change (WBO, 2021). PNG
established a National Climate Change Committee and used this high-level vehicle to create the Office
of Climate Change and Development (OCCD) to coordinate the Government’s climate change-related
activities (Adaptation, 2011). In 2015, PNG signed into law the Climate Change Management Act
(Gharbaoui, 2018), and this act established the Designated National Authority to coordinate all climate
change related policies and actions in the country (CCDA, 2022). With authority over infrastructure
development, such an authority can advocate for communities at risk of climate change-influenced
hazards, but without dedicated financial instruments, such plans could still prove insufficient.
Summary of Findings
The present study focused on the implications of coastal flooding for physical infrastructure
in the coastal areas of Fiji, Kiribati, and PNG as well as how the governments of these countries are
responding to extreme water hazards. Table 1 summarizes the research findings.
Country Hazard Infrastructure Government
Coastal flooding caused • Coordinates

closely with global
Seasonal Tropical by Tropical Cyclone humanitarian
Cyclones (including Winston impacted over
Fiji distant storms) drive 60% of Fiji’s population; • community.
Adapts social safety
coastal flooding. Sea it destroyed 31,000 net to deliver
level rise influence. houses, 495 schools, emergency cash
and 88 health clinics. assistance.
Coastal flooding
Increases in geographic caused by Tropical
Cyclone Pam destroyed • Heavily dependent
scope, duration, and on external funding
frequency of flooding, 65 homes and the
Kiribati and support.
notably during high major causeway used • Inconsistent
tidal periods. Sea level to deliver Kiribati’s government policy.
rise influence. imports and fuel
supplies.
• Uses government
Coastal flooding cycles Residents frequently policies to
and remote-origin wave displaced after coastal coordinate efforts.
PNG energy drive increased flooding events. Lack • Enacted legislation
inundation. Sea level of data on damage to to adopt conceptual
rise influence. physical infrastructure. frameworks.
Conclusion
Lessons Learned
Extreme water hazard events have been a common occurrence throughout the Pacific region, which
is vulnerable to extreme weather events because it falls in an active extreme weather zone. For instance,
frequent tropical cyclones can bring strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surges (Kuleshov et al., 2020).
In some cases, historical knowledge of and adaptation to these events have been passed down within
communities in order to help ensure the survival of future generations. This community posturing
because of shared knowledge has contributed to community resilience in many instances throughout the
Pacific (World Development Bank & Asian Development Bank, 2021). However, systematizing it and
quantifying it in accessible databases remains a challenge.
A mixture of mitigation measures can be utilized to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.
Measures against coastal erosion and inundation can be divided into three categories: 1) hard protection
measures, 2) soft accommodation measures, and 3) retreat or migration (Donner & Webber, 2014). Soft
accommodation measures include nature-based solutions, which are “actions to protect, sustainably
manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems, that address societal challenges effectively and
adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits’’ (Monty, Murti,
& Furuta, 2016, pp.15). In addition to the seawalls and restored coastal vegetation discussed earlier,
cultivating coral gardens in Fiji is one of the recent innovative contributions in response to the effects of
repeated cyclones on local ecosystem. These artificial reefs are intended to help restore and regenerate
natural coral reefs by growing new coral that could be safely removed and replanted in the natural reef.
Alongside restorative efforts, local hotels are being engaged to encourage eco-tourism, whereby the
creation of coral gardens will become an interactive tourist attraction, stimulating both coral growth and
the tourism industry of Fiji and ensuring continuance of local jobs. The efforts also have ripple effects
for local economies where reef regeneration provides a thriving environment for aquatic life in a country
where fisheries are the third largest natural resource, contributing approximately 7% of export income
and 1.8% of GDP in 2018 (Ministry of Fisheries, 2018).
Though mitigation is possible in some situations (McNamara & Prasad, 2014), events can often be
so extreme that they simply defy planning, adaptation, and mitigation. In the recent past, catastrophic
coastal flooding has rendered some PIC communities unable to locally source resources to meet their
own basic needs, and relocation has become more likely after consistent and increasingly intense
inundation (Nazer, 2017; COP23, 2017). The actual characteristics of coastal flooding are incredibly
varied across this region and a collection of data has been severely lacking, especially when it comes to
Kiribati and PNG. A general lack of substantiated research fuels a lack of environmental understanding
of the full causes and impacts of these catastrophic events. Leveraging local insights, integrating
traditional knowledge, and encouraging local action as Fiji has done are means to garner further
information that will offer a more complete picture of coastal flooding, especially for regions marked
by knowledge gaps. As increases in population densities within hazard-prone locations increase risk to
growing communities, the smaller PICs will see inhabitants forced into more dangerous areas as a result
of a lack of land, as in Kiribati (Donner & Webb, 2014). Filling gaps in information with any amount of
data would be better than the complete lack thereof.
Recommendations
Future coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is all but guaranteed for PICs. In order to
better equip residents and researchers alike, more data needs to be captured from evolving methods, and
developing new methods may be a crucial solution. Moreover, states must adapt their central disaster
management structures to integrate global best practice. Finally, modernization or initiation of social
welfare systems will provide states a means to swiftly relieve humanitarian need during future flooding
events.
First, the adoption of a formal reporting system/standard that countries across the Oceania region can
use to contribute data and access.
Collecting, centralizing, and making accessible meteorological and oceanographic data in combination
with local mapping and narratives can help researchers and planners understand the magnitude and
immediacy of the threat of flooding. A second layer will be to add climate change projections that
indicate expected waves, tides, currents, temperature, salinity, and run-up onto shore areas. While
many developed countries have such data, collection in PICs has lagged and, therefore, left highly
vulnerable states to plan their adaptation efforts “by feel.” Among the initiatives in place is development
and dissemination of a platform for governments; it was launched by the Australian Department of
the Environment, the Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information, and the private company,
NGIS Australia (United Nations Climate Change, n.d.). It targeted several PICs, including PNG, to
build capacity in spatial information modeling and decision making through aerial imagery surveys,
GIS training, and provision of hardware and software, all of which are intended to enable the countries
to clearly identify the communities most at risk and facilitate effective planning and decision making to
increase climate change resilience (United Nations Climate Change, n.d.). The development and use of
such platforms may optimize availability of and access to accurate datasets and models, which can, in
turn, be used to initiate corporate, donor, and community engagement.
Second, governments should integrate the Cluster Approach into their disaster management systems
and finance this integration.
We recommended that governments adopt the Cluster Approach framework and fund training and
integration among public agencies and partners. Currently, Fiji and PNG incorporate some aspects of the
Shelter Cluster with Fiji in the forefront regionally (Shelter Cluster Fiji, 2016). In addition to adopting
the Cluster framework, government financing is needed to provide a sustainable support mechanism to
streamline preparedness and response year-round rather than only activating these mechanisms during
emergencies.
Third, governments should formally utilize social protection systems to provide support to the most
vulnerable populations affected by hazards.
Use of existing, fully tested social protection systems with which affected communities are familiar
leverages the databases and networks that underpin the social safety net to provide support for those
affected by hazards. When Tropical Cyclone Winston hit Fiji, the government was able to quickly provide
assistance to impacted communities to mitigate damages felt by Fiji’s most vulnerable populations.
Immediate distributions of food and housing vouchers quickly assisted severely impacted lower-income
families and injected much-needed cash into the local economy (Mansur, et al, 2017). The system helped
provide relief to those most critically impacted by the storm.
Future Studies
Studies on extreme hydrological events and water-related hazards in PICs have multiplied over the last
decade; however, considerations from lessons learned reveal gaps in existing research. It is likely that the
evolving climate scenario will worsen, and a better understanding and body of knowledge can be critical
to building preparedness in the region.
Developing countries are heavily dependent on international support. Future studies should examine
several support metrics, such as tonnage of supplies or dollar amounts received from international
aid in proportion to the country’s size, population, and severity of infrastructure damage, all of which
can provide helpful comparisons. Subject matter experts in the field are well informed on the current
situation within their respective areas of concentration. A future study can include interviews with such
experts to highlight these island nations’ ongoing and relevant issues. Having one-on-one discussions
with an expert can illuminate research pathways while also underscoring enduring information gaps in
the available research.
Acronyms and Abbreviations
ARoB Autonomous Region of Bougainville (of Papua New Guinea)
CFE-DM Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance
DRMKC Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation
GDP gross domestic product
GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
GIS geographic information system
GOF Government of Fiji
IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
km2 square kilometer(s)
NGO non-government organization
OCCD Office of Climate Change and Development (of Papua New Guinea)
PIC Pacific Island Country
PNG Papua New Guinea
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
UNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US$ United States Dollar
USAID United States Agency for International Development
WFP World Food Programme
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CENTER FOR EXCELLENCE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT & HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I, COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PROGRAM

CENTER FOR EXCELLENCE

The Impacts of Coastal

Project Team: WAI

University of Hawai‘i, College of Social Sciences, Public Administration

Project Team: WAI

Edited by: Leigh Sholler

Papua New Guinea

Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure

Government Response Efforts

Data and Methods

Case Study - Fiji

Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure

Government Response Efforts

Case Study - Kiribati

Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure

Impacts of Flooding to Physical Infrastructure

Country Hazard Infrastructure Government

Coastal flooding caused • Coordinates

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