Cosmos College of Management & Technology
PROBABILITY
1. Definition: If you are asked "What is the
chance of your friend to be successful in
an interview"? and if your answer is
maximum or minimum of in-between, it
does not carry any sense i.e. your answer
cannot provide prompt information.
Instead if you say "it's 30% or 80% chance"
or similar, then listener can estimate
extent to which he/she will be successful.
Now, keeping this in mind, we define
probability as: Probability is mathematical
measure of chance of occurrence of
phenomena. In other words probability is
mathematical measure of uncertainty (and
hence that of certainty) which is expressed
in percentage or in ratio.
2. Some terminologies
(a) Experiment
An operation which can yield at least an
output is called an experiment.
For example:
(i) Measuring the length of a set of line
segments
(ii) Tossing a coin
(iii) Immersing blue litmus paper in acidic
solution.
However these following are not taken as
experiment
(i) Seating on the chair
(ii) Putting spectacles on the table
There are two types of experiments:
(i) Deterministies:
The experiments in which the output
is known or can be predicted in advance
are called deterministics.
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For example:
• Determining value of acceleration
due to gravity 'g' in a particular
laboratory.
• Examining colors of rainbow are
the deterministics.
(ii) Random experiments:
The experiments in which in a trial an
unknown result occurs from a known
set of outcomes are called random
experiments.
• Drawing a ball from a bag
containing 2 white, 4 black and 3
red balls.
• Measuring distance between two
consecutive bus stops along
Araniko Highway.
• Testing a printed circuit board to
determine whether it is defective
or an acceptable product.
In probability we are concerned only
with random experiments.
(b) Trial: A single operation or performance
during the experiment is called at trial.
Examples:
• Suppose a coin is tossed thrice. "Each
toss" is a trial.
• Suppose a target is aimed 7 times
with a gun. "Each aim" at target is a
trial.
(c) Sample space:
Set of all possible outcomes in a random
experiment is called the sample space, S.
For example:
• Let a family has two children.
Denoting boy by B and girl by G, the
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 2 Probability
possible outcomes in order of their
birth will be.
S = {BB, BG, GB, GG}
This is the sample space for the
experiment.
• Let us roll a die with faces marked as
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, once. Then, sample space
'S' of all possible outcomes will be
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Let 45 measure the height of all 48
students in a class. Now what sort of
sample points you will get? They will
be all real numbers in a given range,
say 5ft to 7ft. Then sample space
S = {x : 5 < x < 7}
(d) Event:
Any subset of a sample space 'S' of a
random experiment is called an event, E.
For example let us take the sample space S
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} while rolling a die.
Now, define
A = getting perfect square number = {1, 4}
B = getting an even number = {2, 4, 6}
C = getting a number less than 4 = {1, 2, 3}
We find, A⊂S, B⊂S and C⊂S.
Hence, A, B, C are events in S.
Depending upon the condition that an
event contains no element of S and all
elements of S, they are called null and sure
event respectively. A null event is denoted
by φ.
Now, if D = getting a number more than 6
in S, then D = φ and E = getting a number
less or equal to 6 in S then 5 = sure event.
Further an event in said to be simple or
elementary if it is a singleton subset of the
sample space. It cannot be further
decomposed.
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An event is said to be compound if it
consists of more than one element of the
sample space. Here,
Event A = {2} is a simple event and B = {1,
3, 5} is a compound event.
(e) Exhaustive events:
A number of events A1, A2, A3, ... An in
sample space 'S' are said to be exhaustive
events if
AUA2UA3U ... UAn = S.
For the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
let us take events A = {1, 4}, B = {2, 4, 6}, C
= {1, 3, 5}.
We find AUBUC = S and also BUC = S.
Hence the events 'A, B and C' and 'B and C'
are set of exhaustive events.
(f) Exhaustive cases:
The total number of all possible outcomes
of a random experiment is called
exhaustive cases.
Example:
• In flipping a coin S = {H, T}. So no. of
exhaustive cases = 2
i.e. total number of elements in S.
• In rolling a die thrice, S = {(1, 1, 1), (1,
2, 1), ..., (6, 6, 6)}.
So number of exhaustive cases = 63
= 216.
Hence, total number of exhaustive
cases
= (No. of eases in elementary sample
space) no. of repetition
= Product of elements in different
sample spaces if the operation is
repeated together.
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(g) Mutually exclusive events: Let event A = getting a perfect square
number = {1, 4, 9}
Two events A and B in the sample space 'S'
are said to be mutually exclusive if A∩B = ∴ No. of favorite cases for A = 3 i.e. 1, 4, 9
φ. Mutually exclusiveness is measured in a Definition of probability:
single trial.
(a) Classical or mathematical or priory
(h) Independent and dependent events: approach:
Events are said to be independent of each Probability of an event E,
other in multiple trials if the occurrence No. of cases favorable to E in S
(or non occurrence) of one does not affect P(E) = No. of exhaustive (total) cases in S
or is not affected by the occurrence (or
non occurrence) of the other. Otherwise m
= n ; say
they are dependent.
Examples: (b) Frequency approach:
• Say a coin is tossed twice. Let event A When the number of elements in
= getting head 'H' in the first trial and sample space is unknown or the
B = getting tail 'T' (or head 'H') in sample space is do be determined, in
second trial. Now, by definition, A such cases.
and B are independent. lim m
P(E) =
• Suppose an urn contains 4 red and 5 n→∞ n
white balls. Let event A = getting a Here n → ∞ means either n is
white ball in the first draw and event undefined or very large.
B = getting a red (or white) ball in the
second draw without replacement of (j) Equally likely events:
the ball in first draw. Then A and B If the chances of occurrence or
are dependent. Now we arrive at a probabilities of a set of events are same
conclusion that. (equal), they are called equally likely
"Two events A and B cannot be events.
mutually exclusive and independent For example: Let us roll a die. Then sample
simultaneously". space,
(i) Favorable cases of an event: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
The sample points which ensure the Take the events,
occurrence of the event in the sample A = getting a prime number = {2, 3, 5}
space or equivalently number of elements
B = getting an even number = {2, 4, 6}
in an event E is called favourable cases of
an event. 3 1 3 1
Clearly, P(A) = 6 = 2 and P(B) = 6 = 2
Example:
Suppose a ticket is drawn from the tickets ‡ P(A) = P(B), A and B are equally likely
marked from 1 to 10. Then, events.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

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 4 Probability

(k) Complementary events: Additive law of probability

If E be an event in S, then the event Ē = S –
E is called complementary event of E.
Thus E and Ē are complementary events in S if
(i) E∩Ē = φ and (ii) E∪Ē = S
Note that complementary events are
mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
If A and B are the events in the same sample
space 'S', then
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
Where, P(A∪B) = probability of either A or B
P(A∩B) = simultaneous occurrence of A
and B.

Also, P(E) = 1 – P(Ē) More over if A and B are mutually exclusive,

then
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B), as P(A∩B) = 0

Types of 'Draw' from sample

One at a time More than one at a time

Successive

With replacement Without replacement

Whenever draw is more than at a time, we use The odds against an event
principle of combination to estimate number of Cases not favourable to E in S
favorable cases of event and number E= Cases favorable to E in S
exhaustive cases in sample space, S.
q
The "odds in favor' of an event E" in S =p
The odds in favour of an event E
Hence, odds against an event
Cases favorable to E in S
= Cases not favorable to E in S P(Ē)
E = P(E)
p
= q; say

P(E)
Hence, odds in favor of an event E =
P(Ē)
The "odds against an event E" in S
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Conditional Probability
The probability of occurrence of an event A
after it is known that the event B has already
occurred is called "conditional probability of A
and B" and is denoted as P(A/B).
Let us roll a die. Then S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Let events,
A = {1, 2} = getting a number less than 3 and
B = {2, 4, 6} = getting an even number.
Now, A/B = event of getting a number less than
3 whenever event of getting an even number
has already occurred.
P(A/B) = probability of getting A taking B as
sample space.
P(A∩B)
Now, formula to calculate P(A/B) = P(B) ..(1)
Multiplicative law of probability:
From (1) we have,
P(A∩B) = P(B).P(A/B) ...(2)
This is called multiplication rule of probability.
Moreover if A and B are independent, then
P(A/B) = P(A) and (2) reduces to,
P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B).
IMPORTANT
If A and B are independent events, then
[A] The probability of their simultaneous
occurrence = P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B)
i.e. probability of occurrence of BOTH A
and B.
[B] The probability that neither A nor B occurs
= P(Ā∩B̄) = P(Ā).P(B̄)
i.e. probability of NONE occurrence of A
and B.
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[C] The probability that only the event A
occurs = P(A).P(B̄).
[D] Probability that at least one of A or B
occurs = 1 – P(Ā) P(B̄)
[E] Probability that exactly one of A and B
occur
= P(A) P(B̄) + P(Ā).P(B)
[F] Total probability of next event E
= P(A).PA + P(B).PB
E E
   
Baye's Theorem: Theorem on inverse
probability
If H1, H2, H3, ..., Hn form a set of mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events with non zero
probabilities of random experiment and E is any
other event of the same experiment (Sample
space) withy P(E) > 0, then
P(E/Hi).P(Hi)
P(Hi/E) = n
Σ P(E/Hi).P(Hi)
n=1
Random Variable and Probability Distribution:
Let S be the sample space of a random
experiment and ω∈S. Define a rule or function
X that associate each w∈S a real number i.e.
X : S → ℜ such that X(ω) = xi∈ℜ.
Then range of X is called the random variable.
In other word random variable is the set whose
elements represent a numeric value of an
element of the sample space S.
Examples:
1. Let 4 items from newly produced
commodity be examined whether they are
defective. Let X denote the number of
defective items in the drawn sample. Then
depending upon the number of defective
items occurred (none, partial or all) in the
drawn sample for particular trial X can take
one of the values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
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 6 Probability

Hence X = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4} is a random P(X = xi) = p(xi) = pi ...(1) i = 1, 2, 3, ...

variable. is called probability distribution if
2. Let us measure the height of all 48 (i) p(xi) = pi ≥ 0 for all xi and
students of a BE class in Cosmoss College. n n
Let X denote the height of an individual (ii) Σ p(xi) = Σ pi = 1
student in feet. Then X can take any one of i=1 i=1

the values like 5, 5.02, 5.45, 5.5, 6.1 etc. Thus, probability distribution looks likes
when a particular student is selected.
X x1 x2 x3 ... ... xn
These values lies in a range say 5 ft to 6.5
ft. It mean X∈(5, 6.5). Hence X is a random P(X = xi) p1 p2 p3 ... ... pn
variable.
Provided conditions (1) and (2) are satisfied.
Types of random variable:
Probability distribution represented in terms of
(a) Discrete random variable: relation (1) is also called probability mass
A random variable X is said to be a discrete function (p.m.f).
if it assumes only integral values. The mean (µ) of the above distribution is
Example: defined by
n
X: Attendance for a month of a class of 48 µ = Σ pixi
students. i=1

X: Quantity of ball-pens sold per day by a
stationary shop.
(b) Continuous random variable:
A random variable X is said to be
continuous if it assumes all real numbers
(integers as well as decimals) in a given
interval or range.
Example:
X: Milk produced by a Jersey per day in
liters.
X: Weight of individual students of a class.
Probability distribution of discrete random
variable:
Let X be a discrete random variable defined in
the elements of the sample space S of a random
experiment. Let X assumes the values x1, x2, x3
... xn and p1, p2, p3, ..., pn be the corresponding
probabilities when X takes these values. The
tabular representation of this relationship.
= p1x1 + p2x2 + p3x3 + ... + pnxn
The variance (σ2) is defined as
n
σ2 = Σ xi2 pi – µ2
i=1 
Here, σ = standard deviation.
Binomial distribution:
Let there be n independent trails in a random
experiment and let the random variable X
denote the number of successes in these trails.
If the probability of getting a success in a single
trial be p and that of a failure be q such that p +
q = 1, then the probability of getting exactly r
successes (or probability that the random
variable X takes the value r) is given by
P(X = r) = C(n, r) prqn–r
The mean of the Binomial distribution,
µ = np and the variance σ2 = npq.
So, the standard deviation (σ) for Binomial
distribution is,
σ = npq

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EXERCISE
1. The word "Random" in probability theorem c. exhaustive
refers: d. equally likely
a. unknown out of unknown Ans: a
b. unknown out of known 6. A number x is choosen from the set 1 ≤ x
c. known out of unknown ≤ 50. The probability that either it is a
d. known out of known multiple of 4 or 7 is
Ans: b 12 9
a. 25 b. 25
2. Which of the following is a random
experiment? 7 6
c. 25 d. 25
a. getting 52 Sundays in a year
b. examining colors of rainbow Ans: b

c. immersing red litmus paper in basic 7. A box contains 8 tickets bearing the
solution numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10 one ticket is
drawn at random and is kept aside. If the
d. measuring the lengths of segments in
second ticket is drawn, the probability
the set of line segments
that both show even numbers is
Ans: d
25 5
3. Let S denote the sample space of an a. 56 b. 28
experiment in which two coins are
5 9
flipped. Then total number of events in S c. 14 d. 14
is
Ans: c
a. 4 b. 6
8. Let X = {–1, 0, 1} be a random variable
c. 8 d. 16 with P(X = –1) = 0.24, P(X = 0) = 0.48, P(X =
Ans: d 1) = 0.28. Then mean of the distribution is
4. If P(E) denote the probability of an event a. –0.04 b. 0.08
in sample space 'S', then c. 1 d. 0.04
a. –1 < P(E) < 1 b. –1 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 Ans: d
c. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 d. 0 < P(E) < 1 9. Three unbiased coins are tossed. The
Ans: b probability of getting 2 tails is
1 3
5. If the events E1 and E2 are such that E1∩E2 a. 4 b. 8
= φ, then the events are
1 5
a. mutually exclusive c. 8 d. 8
b. independent
Ans: b

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 8 Probability

10. A coin is tossed. If head comes up, a die is 14. A problem is given to three students A, B,
thrown but if tail comes up, the coin is 1 1 1
C whose chances of solving if are 4, 5, 6
tossed again. The probability of getting a
head and even number is respectively. If they all try, the probability
1 2 that the problem will be solved is
a. 8 b. 8
1 1
a. 2 b. 4
3 5
c. 8 d. 8
2 3
c. 3 d. 4
Ans: c
11. An urn contains 3 red and 4 white balls. Ans: a
Two balls are drawn at random. The ∪B) = 0.6 and A, B are
15. If P(A) = 0.3, P(A∪
probability that they are of different independent events, then P(B) is
colors is 2 3
a. 7 b. 7
3 4
a. 7 b. 7
4 5
c. 7 d. 7
5 6
c. 7 d. 7
Ans: b
Ans: b 16. The probability that the month of
12. In a class of 100 students, 60 drink tea, 50 February in a leap year may contain 5
drink coffee and 30 drink both. A student Monday is
is selected at random. The probability 1 2
that the selected student takes at least a. 7 b. 7
one of two drinks is
3 4
2 3 c. 7 d. 7
a. 5 b. 5
Ans: a
4 1
c. 5 d. 5 17. A group of executives contains 6
gentlemen and 4 ladies. A committee of 4
Ans: c is to be formed. The probability that the
13. A and B are the events such that committee will consist of equal number of
probability of occurrence of A is 0.42, opposite genders is
probability of their simultaneous 6 5
occurrence is 0.16. If the probability that a. 7 b. 7
either A or B occur is 0.74, then the
4 3
probability of occurrence of B is c. 7 d. 7
a. 0.32 b. 0.40
Ans: d
c. 0.45 d. 0.48
Ans: d
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18. A group of students consists of 4 boys and a. 0.21 b. 0.25
3 girls. If they are to be arranged for a c. 0.28 d. 0.3
photograph, then the probability that
Ans: c
boys and girls are alternate is
22. Probability that Nepal win a cricket match
7 4
a. 35 b. 35 is 0.25 and that Pakistan will win is 0.4.
The probability that exactly (only) one of
1 3 them will win the match is
c. 35 d. 35
1 3
Ans: c a. 20 b. 20
19. Two fair dice are tossed together. The 7 9
probability of getting odd numbers in c. 20 d. 20
both the dice is
Ans: d
1 1
a. 3 b. 2 23. Four person's are choosen at random
from a group of 3 men, 2 women and 4
1 5 children. The probability that two of them
c. 4 d. 4
will be children is
Ans: c 8 10
a. 21 b. 21
20. The odds in favour of an event E are 5:3.
Then probability of the even E is 4 2
c. 7 d. 3
2 3
a. 5 b. 5
Ans: b
5 3 2
c. 8 d. 8 24. Two events A and B have probabilities 5
Ans: c 1
and 4 respectively. The probability that
21. The odds in favor of an event A are 2:3
and odds against an event B are 3:2. The 1
both A and B occur is 10. The probability
probability of occurrence of A or B is 0.6.
Then probability of their simultaneous that neither A nor B happens is
occurrence is 7 9
a. 20 b. 20
a. 0.5 b. 0.4
c. 0.3 d. 0.2 11 13
c. 20 d. 20
Ans: b
Ans: b
21. Probability that a man lives till age of 90
is 0.3. The probability of his wife lives till 25. A bag contains 2 white and 3 red balls and
age of 90 is 0.4. The probability that only next bag contains 1 white and 4 red balls.
his wife lives till age of 90 is One ball is drawn at random from one of
the bags and it is found to be red.
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 10 Probability

The probability that it was from the 3 4

a. 5 b. 5
second bag is
4 5 3 2
a. 7 b. 7 c. 10 d. 5

3 6 Ans: c
c. 7 d. 7
28. The standard deviation of a binomial
Ans: a distribution in which there are 16
26. Among following the discrete random independent trials is 2. Then mean is
variable is: a. 2 b. 4
a. X: Increase in length of life of the c. 8 d. 16
cancer patients as a result of surgery Ans: c
b. X: Weight of individual student of a 29. In a binomial distribution mean = 10 and
class in kg variance = 8. Then number of trials is
c. X: Blood pressure (upper and) of a a. 10 b. 20
group persons
c. 25 d. 50
d. X: Quantity of writing pad sold by a
Ans: d
stationary store per day during a
month 30. An experiment yields 3 mutually exclusive
and exhaustive evens A, B, C satisfying
Ans: d
2P(A) = 3P(B) = 4P(C). Then P(A) is
27. A discrete random variable X has
5 6
following probability distribution. a. 11 b. 13
X 0 1 2 3 4 7 7
2 2 2 c. 11 d. 13
P(X) 0 5K K + 6K 4K 3K
Then P(X = 4) is Ans: b

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