Tutorialon Changing Riskanalysisfor Decision Making 2021

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ANALYSING MULTI-HAZARD RISK FOR DECISION MAKING IN DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION. TUTORIAL
Method · February 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11495.98720
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ANALYSING MULTI-HAZARD
RISK FOR DECISION MAKING
IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION.
TUTORIAL
By
Cees van Westen
Faculty of Geo Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC),
University of Twente
Version November 2020
1

This document is a training manual, for a course on „Changing Multi‐Hazard Risk Assessment for
Decision making“. It is accompanied by a GIS dataset and an Open Source and simple to use GIS system
(ILWIS). It is aimed for a course of 10 ‐13 days. The training material is freely available, and can be used
in other courses, as long as you cite the reference.

How to cite
C.J. van Westen (2020). Analysing Changing Multi‐Hazard Risk Tutorial. Faculty of Geo Information
Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, The Netherlands.

For more information, contact the author:
Cees van Westen
Professor Multi‐Hazard Risk Dynamics
Department of Earth Systems Analysis
Faculty of Geo‐Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)
University of Twente
Email: c.j.vanwesten@utwente.nl
Web: https://research.utwente.nl/en/persons/cj‐van‐westen
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 1
2. Exercise 1: Installation and visualization of the hazard data ........................................................ 5
2.1 Input data: hazard maps ......................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Input data: administrative units............................................................................................. 9
2.3 Input data: risk reduction alternatives .................................................................................. 9
2.3.1 Alternative 01: Engineering measures ........................................................................... 9
2.3.2 Alternative 02: Ecological measures ............................................................................ 11
2.3.3 Alternative 03: Relocation. ........................................................................................... 11
2.4 Input data: Possible future scenarios .................................................................................. 12
2.5 Input data: Risk Reduction alternatives under possible future scenarios .......................... 13
3. Exercise 2: Analysing Elements‐at‐risk & vulnerability data ....................................................... 14
3.1 Input data: Vulnerability curves ........................................................................................... 15
4. Exercise 3: Loss analysis ............................................................................................................... 17
4.1 Do the procedure yourself .................................................................................................... 18
4.2 Understand the script for building loss analysis .................................................................. 20
4.3 Understand the script for loss analysis of land parcels ....................................................... 23
4.4 Automate the loss calculation for many combinations ...................................................... 23
5. Exercise 4: Risk analysis ................................................................................................................ 25
5.1 Automate the risk calculation .............................................................................................. 26
6. Exercise 5: Analyse the risk for possible risk reduction alternatives .......................................... 29
6.1 Loss analysis of the alternatives ........................................................................................... 29
6.2 Risk analysis of the alternatives ........................................................................................... 31
7. Exercise 6: Cost benefit analysis of the alternatives ................................................................... 33
7.1 Calculating the costs ............................................................................................................. 33
7.2 Entering the benefit values. ................................................................................................. 35
7.3 Calculate the Net Present Value .......................................................................................... 36
7.4 Internal Rate of Return ......................................................................................................... 37
7.5 Comparing the alternatives and select the best one ........................................................... 38
8. Exercise 7: Stakeholder workshop ............................................................................................... 39
9. Exercise 9: Evaluate the changes for different scenarios. ........................................................... 41
9.1 Input data: Possible future scenarios .................................................................................. 41
9.2 Analysing the changes in land use , value and people. ....................................................... 44
ii

9.3 Analyse changes in risk for the different scenarios. ............................................................ 47
10. Exercise 10: Which alternatives would behave best under possible future scenarios. ......... 49
10.1 Loss calculation ..................................................................................................................... 49
10.2 Risk calculation ..................................................................................................................... 52
10.3 Cost‐benefit analysis ............................................................................................................. 53
11. Final Project .............................................................................................................................. 54
References ............................................................................................................................................ 57

iii

1. Introduction
1.1 Objectives
The overall aim of the exercises in this tutorial is to evaluate possible changes in risk to multi‐hazards,
in an small area along the coast in an island community.
These changes may be related to possible risk reduction measures, but also to possible
future scenarios related to land use change, population change, and climate change, and the effect of
possible intervention alternatives on top of these possible future scenarios.

The exercises in this tutorial follow the following cases of analysing changing multi‐hazard risk:
Analysing the current level of risk.

In this workflow the stakeholders (e.g. local
authorities) are interested to know the current
level of risk in their municipality. Central in the
whole process are the stakeholders. They are
organizations involved in spatial planning,
planning of risk reduction measures, or
emergency preparedness and response. They
work in a country with a specific legislation and
planning process. These could be subdivided
into:
• Government departments responsible for
the construction, monitoring, maintenance
and protection of critical infrastructure (e.g.
the Ministry of Public Works).
•Physical planning departments
responsible for the with the mandate to
make land development plans at different
scales.
• Emergency Management Organizations
Stakeholders will start with the analysis of the
existing risk. This work is done at the
appropriate scale related to the objectives of the stakeholders. The risk assessment can be subdivided
into the following components:
• Hazard analysis (modeling the possible intensity and frequency of hazardous processes);
• Exposure analysis (overlay of hazard intensities and elements‐at‐risk);
• Vulnerability assessment (translate hazard intensities into expected degree of loss);
• Risk analysis (integrate losses for different hazards and return periods).
After analysing the risk, it is important to determine whether the risk is too high, and where the risk is
too high. This is called the risk evaluation stage, and is the stage at which values and judgements enter
the decision process, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration of the importance of the
estimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and economic consequences, in order to
identify a range of alternatives for managing the risks. Important considerations in this respect are:
• Risk perception (how stakeholders perceive the severity of risk in comparison with other risks);
• Risk acceptability (whether the risk is above predefined thresholds).

See also: http://www.charim.net/use/42
Analysing the best risk reduction alternatives.
1

In this workflow the stakeholders want to
analyse the best risk reduction alternative, or
combination of alternatives. They define the
alternatives, and request the expert
organizations to provide them with updated
hazard maps, elements‐at‐risk information and
vulnerability information reflecting the
consequences of these scenarios.
Once these hazard and asset maps are available
for the scenarios, the new risk level is analysed,
and compared with the existing risk level to
estimate the level of risk reduction. This is then
evaluated against the costs (both in terms of
finances as well as in terms of other constraints)
and the best risk reduction scenario is selected.
The planning of risk reduction measures
(alternatives) involves:
 Disaster response planning
 Planning of risk reduction measures
 Spatial planning
The implementation of certain structural or
non‐structural risk mitigation measures might lead to a modification of the hazard, exposure and
vulnerability. Risk is a function of Hazard * vulnerability of exposed elements‐at‐risk * the
quantification of the elements‐at‐risk. So there are several possibilities, that risk mitigation measures
will influence
 The hazard (in terms of the types of hazards, the intensity, frequency, and spatial probability)
 The exposure of elements‐at‐risk (how many elements‐at‐risk are in hazard areas)
 The vulnerability of elements‐at‐risk (the degree of damage caused)
 The quantification of the elements‐at risk (like the replacement value, or number of people)
Therefore experts should evaluate together with the stakeholders what would be the effect of the
proposed alternative on the hazard, elements‐at‐risk location and characteristics and the vulnerability.
If needed new hazard modelling should be carried out, or new elements‐at‐risk maps should be made
representing the new situation.
After re‐analysing the hazard, elements‐at‐risk and vulnerability for the situation after the
implementation of the planning alternative, the next step is to analyse the resulting level of risk, and
compare this with the current risk level. The difference between the average annual losses before and
after the implementation of the planning alternative, provides information on the risk reduction. This
should be done for all the possible planning alternatives. The risk reduction should be done preferable
both in terms of economic risk reduction (reduction in the average annual losses in monetary values)
as well as in population risk reduction (reduction in the expected casualties or exposed people). Risk
reduction alternatives are compared, using different methods, such as cost‐benefit analysis (weighing
both costs and benefits in monetary terms), cost‐effective analysis (costs against non‐monetary
benefits) or multi‐criteria evaluation (using many non‐quantifiable indicators).
The last step of this workflow related to the selection of the optimal planning alternative in relation to
the reduction of risk to hydro‐meteorological hazards is the consultation with the various stakeholders
involved.

See also: http://www.charim.net/Use_case/43

The evaluation how risk will change reduction under different future scenarios.
2

The scenarios are related to possible changes
related to climate, land use change or
population change due to global and regional
changes, and which are only partially under
the control of the local planning organizations.
The stakeholders might like to evaluate how
these trends have an effect on the hazard and
elements‐at‐risk and how these would
translate into different risk levels. The possible
future could be of the following types:
 Climate change scenarios (with effect on the
frequency and intensity of the hazards)
 Land use change scenarios (based on macro‐
economic and political developments)
 Population change scenarios (e.g. related to
ongoing urbanization or political
developments, or also as feedback related to
climate change).
 Economic scenarios (having an effect on the
values of the elements‐at‐risk, sand
depending on many factors).
 Future planning scenarios (for instance resulting from the national physical development plan)
 A combination of the above.

The future scenarios are evaluated for specified future years , like 2050 or 2100. These are indications
of what might happen, but have a large degree of uncertainty.
Future scenarios will lead to a modification of the risk components.
 The hazard . It may be that new hazards will emerge that are currently not a major problem
(e.g. extreme drought, wildfires, hazards related to permafrost decline). Hydro=‐
meteorological hazards might become more severe (higher intensity) or more frequent (higher
probability of occurrence). Therefore climate change projections should be translated into
possible hazard scenarios in future years.
 The exposure of elements‐at‐risk. The land use change that might occur as a result of the
complex interplay between political, economical, cultural, technological and environmental
developments will determine the types/and quantification of the element‐at‐risk. Climate
change will also play an important role in this. Future land use changes are modelled using
complex methods.
 The vulnerability of elements‐at‐risk may also change due to different types of element‐at‐
risk and their characteristics.
This workflow requires the collaboration of many disciplines, in the development of future scenarios
for specific future years. The experts should evaluate together with the stakeholders what would be
the effect of these scenarios in the change of risk. This forms the basis of analysing possible climate
adaption and risk reduction alternatives.

See also: http://www.charim.net/use_case/44

3

The evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different
future scenarios
This is the most complicated workflow in the
tutorial, as it requires to calculate the present
risk level, the effect of different risk reduction
alternatives, and the overprinting of these on
the scenarios. For each of these combinations
of alternatives & scenarios new hazard, assets
and risk maps need to be made.
In other words, they would like to know
which decision is the most “Change‐proof”.
Here both the risk reduction alternatives as
well as the possible future scenarios are
defined, and for each combination hazard
data is used in combination with elements‐
at‐risk data for that particular situation. A
matrix is made of alternatives and future
years under different scenarios, and losses
and risk are analysed for multi‐hazard for
each combination. This is then used to
determine the risk reduction in future years
under different scenarios. Also a Cost‐
Benefit analysis is carried out but now the
benefits change through time. Finally also a Multi‐Criteria Evaluation can be performed to select the
best alternative

See also: http://www.charim.net/Use_case/45
Reading Assignment.
The procedure that we will follow is explained in the following chapter. Please read this before and
during your work in the tutorial.
 van Westen, C. J., & Greiving, S. (2017). Multi‐hazard risk assessment and decision making. In N. R.
Dalezios (Ed.), Environmental hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management (pp. 31‐
94). IWA Publishing. https://doi.org/10.2166/9781780407135_0031

Acknowledgements
The data set is based on original data that was prepared for an EU FP7 project SAFELAND
(https://www.ngi.no/eng/Projects/SafeLand ) by the University of Salerno, Italy. The following persons have
developed the original hazard maps: Leonardo Cascini, Settimio Ferlisi and Sabatino Cuomo. They also supplied
the high resolution image, the DEM, building footprints, roads etc. The original hazard maps have been modified
in order to reflect the situation for the various alternatives. The land parcel maps have all been generated by
ourselves based on available high resolution images. The whole dataset was modified to make it a generic case
study reflecting a situation in an island country. We also would like to thank Anna Scolobig from IIASA for her
work on the risk reduction alternatives (which we have taken as they were) the stakeholder involvement and the
stakeholder roleplay exercise. Hari Narasimhan (ETH) and Emile Dopheide are thanked for their input in the cost‐
benefit analysis. Also we would like to thank Andrea Tripodi for his work in the development of the case study.
Luc Boerboom and Ziga Malek are thanked for their input in the thinking about possible future scenarios. Kaixi
Zhang is thanked for her feedback on the risk calculation method.

4

2. Exercise 1: Installation and visualization of the
hazard data
In the development of the training materials it was decided to base all the
exercises on Open Source software. We decided to use the ILWIS software,
as this is easy to learn, comprehensive and has an extensive set of tutorial
material.
ILWIS is an acronym for the Integrated Land and Water Information
System. It is a Geographic Information System (GIS) with Image
Processing capabilities. ILWIS has been developed by the International
Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC), Enschede, The
Netherlands up to release 3.3 in 2005. ILWIS comprises a complete
package of image processing, spatial analysis and digital mapping. It is easy to learn and use; it has full
on‐line help, extensive tutorials for direct use in courses and 25 case studies of various disciplines (See
www.itc.nl)
Since July 2007, ILWIS software is freely available ('as‐is' and free of charge) as open source software
(binaries and source code) under the 52°North initiative (GPL license). This software version is called
ILWIS Open. ILWIS software can be downloaded for free from 52 North: http://52north.org/ As a GIS
package, ILWIS allows you to input, manage, analyze and present geo‐graphical data. From the data
you can generate information on the spatial and temporal patterns and processes on the earth surface.
Before you can start with the exercises you will have to download & install the software.
 Go to the website of 52North and download ILWIS 3.8.6 version.
 Run the Setup to install the system.

The input data will be made available through a ZIP file:
 Unzip the data in a directory on the harddisk (C or D drive, and not on desktop)
 Open the ILWIS program and navigate to the directory where you unzipped the data.
In the data window you can see the various input data which are either raster maps ( ) , polygons
maps ( ), or segment maps ( ). Tables ( ) contain attribute information related to the maps.
Domains ( ) are datafiles that explain what is in the maps, and can be compared to legends.
Representations ( ) show how domains should displayed. Scripts ( ) are a sequenced list of ILWIS
commands and expressions. By creating a script, we have combined many intermediate steps in the
analysis so that you can do the exercise without knowing about GIS and ILWIS.
 Double clicking any file will open it. In the case of maps, clicking on the map will show the
contents of the map..
 Right‐clicking on any item will show the operations that can be done with that type of data.

 Display the raster map IMAGE by double clicking and analyse the situation in the area.
The study area has been affected some years ago by a landslide (in the vicinity of the quarry area, that
has destroyed several buildings, and killed a number of people. The authorities in the area have
become very worried because in a nearby area, a large number of debris flows and landslides occurred
some years ago. The authorities of the study area are now considering the need to carry out mitigation
5

measures in the area as well. However, they are not sure of the type of measures and the effect of
them on risk reduction, that is why they have ordered the hazard and risk study to be carried out.

Figure: Overview of how the objects in ILWIS are linked. The icons refer to the objects visible in the
data window.

 You can add vector maps by selecting Layers, Add Layers (and select a polygon map ( ),
e.g. BU_2020_A0_S0 . this is a building map of the current situation. Zoom in to some
buildings, and click on a building. The information of the attributes will be shown in a small
window at the lower left side.
 Display the raster map DTM (Digital Terrain Models made from a LiDAR dataset). You can
click on the pixels to see the elevation values. Select in the left part of the window:
Operations, Statistics, Histograms and double click it. And OK in the next window, to display
the histogram of the map. Check minimum and maximum elevation.
 You can also display the hillshading image DTM_Shadow to get a better impression of the
study area. Select the grayscale representation (DTM_Shadow, Display Tools, Portrayal,
Representation, and select Gray).
 Overlay some of the hazard maps on it (e.g. drag‐and‐drop the map DF_IP_100_A0, and
select DF_IP_100_A0, Display_tools, transparency and change the transparency level)
The input data contains many different types of data. Each of the data contains specific codes in the
names of the files, in order to make the exercise mangeable. The dataset contains the following types
of data:

• Hazard data . These are hazard maps for debris flows (Files starting with DF) , Floods (files
starting with FL), landslides (files staring with LS) and Tsunami (Files starting with TS). The
numbers in the hazard maps (like 10, 20, 50, 100 etc.) refer to return periods.
• Elements‐at‐risk data. There are two types of elements‐at‐risk:
o Building footprint maps (Files starting with BU)
o Land parcel maps (Files starting with LP).
6

• Vulnerability curves (tables starting with VUL). These are for combinations of hazard types,
elements‐at‐risk type, and for two types of vulnerability:
o PH: Physical vulnerability of objects
o PO: Population vulnerability.
• Risk Reduction alternatives. In this tutorial we look at three types of risk reduction
alternatives. These are always indicated with the letter A followed by a number. A0 means the
current situation. A1 means alternative 1, A2 alternative 2 and A3 alternative 3.
• Future scenarios. In this tutorial we will look at four different future scenarios. These are
indicated with the letter S, followed by a number. S0 means the current situation, S1 means
Scenario 1 etc.
• Future or current year: The files are made for the current year (2020) or for a future year (e.g.
2050).

2.1 Input data: hazard maps
We have made hazard maps for landslides, debrisflows , mudflows, floods and tsunamis. In the
exercises we will not yet consider the tsunami hazard. We will initially only consider the risk to floods,
debrisflows, and landslides.
The debrisflow, mudflow and flood maps have intensity data (impact pressure for mudflows and
debrisflows, and depth for flood). The landslide hazard maps do not have intensity maps, but only
spatial probability maps indicating the chance that a particular area will be affected by a landslide.
The available maps are illustrated in the table below and in the figure below.
Map Hazard Return Period Intensity Spatial

probability
LS_SP_20_A0 Landslide 20 Not available yes
DF_IP_20_A0 Debrisflow 20 Impact pressure 1
FL_DE_20_A0 Flood 20 Water depth 1
TS_DE_20_A0 Tsunami 20 Water depth 1

The hazard data consists of the following components:
o Hazard type: LS= landslides, MF= mudflow, FL=Flood, DF=Debrisflows, TS=Tsunami
o Return Period: this is the average frequency with which the events is expected to occur. This
is based on the analysis of the magnitude and frequency of the triggering rainfall , or of the
7

events themselves (e.g. flood discharge, or the number of landslides occurring in a particular
period)
o Intensity: the intensity indicates the spatially distributed effect of the hazard event. This can
be water depth for flooding, or impact pressure for debrisflows. These have been modelled
using specific hazard modelling software. These models require quite a lot of input data and
assumptions. In this exercise we will not deal with the methods how these were created. For
some types of hazards it may also not be possible to generate intensity maps, as data or models
are lacking. This is the case for landslide runout in our exercise.
o Spatial probability: the spatial probability indicates the chance that a particular location would
actually be affected by the hazard. This could be the result of uncertainty in the flood modelling
or runout modelling. Or it could also represent (in the absence of an intensity map) the
likelihood that a particular area will be affected by landslides based on the area of the units,
divided by the area of landslides that have occurred in the past. In this way we can use it to
reclassify so‐called landslide susceptibility maps into spatial probability maps.
o Alternatives: this indicates whether the hazard map is made for the current situation or for a
planned risk reduction alternative (A1, A2, A3)

 Analyse the available hazard maps using ILWIS, by displaying them , creating histograms and by
comparing the intensity and spatial probability values for the different return periods and
hazard types.
 You can also consult all the other maps at the same time using the Pixel Information window (
).

8

2.2 Input data: administrative units

For the calculation of risk we also need an
administrative unit map, as we are going to
aggregate the losses eventually for particular
units, and the decision making is based on the
risk within these units. The administrative unit
map contains 19 administrative units..
 Display the administrative unit map (admin_units) on top of the image and/or the hillshading
image.

To aggregate data you use the option Map Cross. For example, let us calculate how many buildings
there are within each administrative unit. We first need to convert to polygon map to a raster map
 Right click on the administrative unit map (admin_units) and select Polygon_to_Raster. Select
the georefence (what is that?) Island. Click Show.
 Right click on the raster map administrative unit map (admin_units) and select Raster
Operations, Cross. Select the second map BU_2020_A0_A0 (what does this mean?) and the
output table : Admin_Units_Buildings. Click Show. All combinations of the two maps are
shown.
 In the window of the resulting table select: Columns , aggregation, and select the column
BU_2020_A0_S0, the function Count, Group by: admin_units, and Output table Admin_unit,
and Output column: NR_buildings.
 Open the attribute table admin_units and check the results. Which administrative unit has
most buildings? Check where this is in the map.

2.3 Input data: risk reduction alternatives
In this tutorial we will later evaluate three risk reduction alternatives:
‐ Alternative 1: engineering solutions
‐ Alternative 2: ecological solutions
‐ Alternative 3: relocation

2.3.1 Alternative 01: Engineering measures
This alternative aims at constructing active and passive control works using engineering measures:
 Take out the soil in the landslide prone areas
 Create storage basins that will retain the floods and debrisflows
 Create water channels to guide the water
9

 Create a monitoring system to check regularly if there are landslide signs in the upper slopes.
Figure: Risk reduction alternative 1. Engineering measures.

The analysis of this alternatives requires new a land parcel map, and new hazard intensity maps. For
the alternative 1 we assume that the engineering works will block all debris flows and floods for
return periods up to 100 year. For return period of 200 years the engineering solutions might not be
sufficient, and the storage basins will overflow.
 Display the image and add the map Alternative_1 , which shows the overall setting
 The maps in the table below are the new hazard and elements‐at‐risk maps for this
alternative. Check out the difference with the current situation.

Hazard type Return Intensity Present Alternative 1: Alternative 2: Alternative 3:
period measure or situation: Engineering Ecological Relocation
spatial measures solutions
probability
Landslide 20 Spatial Probability LS_SP_20_A0 LS_SP_20_A1 LS_SP_20_A2 The same hazard
Landslide 50 Spatial Probability LS_SP_50_A0 LS_SP_50_A1 LS_SP_50_A2 maps are used as
Landslide 100 Spatial Probability LS_SP_100_A0 LS_SP_100_A1 LS_SP_100_A2 for the current
Landslide 200 Spatial Probability LS_SP_200_A0 LS_SP_200_A1 LS_SP_200_A2 situation because
Debrisflow 20 Impact pressure DF_IP_020_A0 DF_IP_20_A1 DF_IP_20_A2 this alternative
Debrisflow 50 Impact pressure DF_IP_050_A0 DF_IP_50_A1 DF_IP_50_A2 doesn’t change
Debrisflow 100 Impact pressure DF_IP_100_A0 DF_IP_100_A1 DF_IP_100_A2 the hazard.
Debrisflow 200 Impact pressure DF_IP_200_A0 DF_IP_200_A1 DF_IP_200_A2
Flood 20 Water depth FL_DE_020_A0 FL_DE_20_A1 FL_DE_20_A2
Land Parcel maps LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2020_A1_S0 LP_2020_A2_S0
LP_2020_A3_S0
Table indicating the files names for the hazard maps and the elements‐at‐risk maps for the present
situation and for the three risk reduction alternatives.

10

2.3.2 Alternative 02: Ecological measures
This alternative aims at constructing active and passive control works using ecological solutions:
 Take out the soil in the landslide prone areas
 Use soil nailing in the upper slope to reduce the landslide susceptibility
 Create water tanks that will retain some of the floods
 Create water channels to guide the water
 A barrier of oak trees that will retain some of the debrisflows and mudflows
 Create a natural park which will stop further development

Figure: Risk reduction alternative 2. Ecological measures.

 Display the maps related to this alternative. The map Alternative 2 shows the overall setting
 The maps in the table above are the new hazard and elements‐at‐risk maps for this
alternative.

2.3.3 Alternative 03: Relocation.
This alternative aims at relocation the residential population from the most endangered administrative
units . Evacuation of the people requires that they have to be financially compensated, and that they
are willing to collaborate, otherwise lengthy procedures and lawsuits are required which may take a
lot of time. Relocation can be done by providing new houses for the people, or by providing them with
financial compensation.
 Display the maps related to this alternative. The map Alternative 3 shows the overall setting
 The maps in the table above are the new hazard and elements‐at‐risk maps for this
alternative.

11

2.4 Input data: Possible future scenarios
The analysis of changes involves the definition of a number of scenarios, which can be seen as trends,
on which the users don’t have a direct influence. These can be in terms of:
 Climate change: involving changes in the magnitude‐frequency of precipitation extremes and
other relevant climatic stimuli (such as evaporation, days with snow cover) and in the
occurrence in the time of the year of these extremes (e.g. related to changes in springtime
temperature changes).
 Land use change: long term land use changes relate to socio‐economic developments that
might occur in an area.
 Population change: also related to political and socio‐economic developments within a
country.
The scenarios are possible developments, and several scenarios are possible for which it will be difficult
or impossible to indicate their probability of occurrence.
In this tutorial we are going to use four scenarios:
Name Land use change Climate change

Scenario 1 Business as usual Rapid growth without taking Limited change in climate
into account the risk expected
information
Scenario 2 Risk informed planning Rapid growth that takes into Limited change in climate
account the risk information expected
and extends the alternatives in
the planning
Scenario 3 Worst case Rapid growth without taking Climate change expected,
into account the risk leading to more frequent
information extreme events
Scenario 4 Climate change Rapid growth that takes into Climate change expected,
adaptation account the risk information leading to more frequent
and extends the alternatives in extreme events
the planning

If we would put the combinations of scenarios and alternatives in a matrix the result would look like
this. The names of the elements‐at‐risk maps are given for each combination. Not that:
 for scenario 3 and 4 we are using the same element‐at‐risk maps as for scenario 1 and 2, but
we change the frequency of the hazard events (the return periods);
 The actual hazard maps used for the scenarios are the same as those for the alternatives. We
do not consider that the intensity will change. Only the return periods of the hazards will
change.

Possible future scenario: Now
2020 2050
S1 Business as usual LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S1
S2 Risk informed planning LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S2
S3 Worst case (Rapid growth + climate change) LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S1
S4 Climate resilience (informed planning under climate LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S2
change)

 Display the land use map for 2050 and compare them with the situation in 2020. Later we
will do this with more detail.

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2.5 Input data: Risk Reduction alternatives under possible future scenarios
The risk reduction alternatives can also occur under different future scenarios. If we would
put the combinations in a matrix the result would look like this:
Scenario: Possible Alternative: risk Now Future years

Future trends reduction options 2020 2050
S1 Business as usual A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S1
A1 Engineering LP_2020_A1_S0 LP_2050_A1_S1
A2 Ecological LP_2020_A2_S0 LP_2050_A2_S1
A3 Relocation LP_2020_A3_S0 LP_2050_A3_S1
S2 Risk informed planning A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S2
S3 Worst case (Rapid A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S1
growth + climate change) (Land use same as S1, A0 &
Hazard Frequency different)
(Land use same as S1, A1 &
S4 Climate resilience A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2050_A0_S4
(informed planning under (Land use same as S2, A0 &
climate change) Hazard Frequency different)
Table : Overview of the land use maps used for the various combinations of risk reduction alternatives
and future years.
The table above indicates the combination of the four scenarios (S1,S2,S3,S4) and the 3 risk reduction
alternatives (A1,A2,A3) in 3 future years (2030, 2040, 2050). In the case study we will use the coding
of the files in a similar way: future_year_Alternative_Scenario. So for example: LP_2030_A1_S2 refers
to the land parcels for future year 2030 under alternative A1 (Engineering solutions) and for scenario
S2 (risk informed planning).

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3. Exercise 2: Analysing Elements‐at‐risk &
vulnerability data
In this exercise we will look more in depth to the information required for the elements‐at‐risk and the
vulnerability.
We can use two types of elements‐at‐risk: building footprints and land parcels. In the tutorial you will
work mostly with land parcels. Each of them have information on:
o The use: indicating the land use type.
o The types: this is type of element‐at‐risk. Different types of
elements‐at‐risk can be affected differently by hazard events. For
the risk analysis this is important as this is linked to the
vulnerability curves, which will be explained later. The table below
gives the different types that have been used in this exercise for
buildings and for land parcels.
o The value: this is the replacement value of the elements‐at‐risk
in monetary units (Euros, US dollars etc).
o The people: the number of people that might be present in the
element‐at‐risk. Here you can decide to take the maximum
number of people or the people present at a given time (in case
when we are dealing with rapid events, the time of day/year is
also important for the population loss estimation). In this exercise
(we take here the maximum number of people.
 Display the polygon map for the Land_Parcels of the current situation: LP_2020_A0_S0. Use
the attribute Type to display the map. Observe the information that is available for each of
the buildings.
 Open the attribute table LP_2020_A0_S0, and check the contents of the table.

Each land parcel has information on:
 The Type of landuse. Double click the column header Type, and check the domain. Open the
domain Landuse. Each land use class contains a name and a code.
 The area of the land parcel in m2. This can be calculated using statistics from the polygon
map.
 The Value of the land parcel. This is the replacement value for this specific land parcel and
land use type.
 The People in this land parcel. This is the number of people that can be present in the land
parcel.

We have made the data so that the building map and the land parcel maps have the same number of
people for the parcels in which buildings are located. For the other parcels we are using values per m2
14

and multiplied these with the area of the land parcel, so that we can have an estimate of the total
maximum number of people. The same we did for the population. We took the values of the buildings
from the building footprint map, and used these for the value of the land parcels. For the parcels
without buildings we made an estimation based on the value per m2 and multiplied this with the area.
Assignment 1.
In this assignment you will analyse how to determine the value and the number of people within
one class of the land parcel map.
Cost estimation
• Select one land use type from the list above.
• Consider all objects/items that might be there in the area, including vegetation, animals, moveable
goods.
• Make a list of objects that would be on this land use classes in 1 ha. Include all aspects, fixed
objects, moving objects.
• For buildings, specify the typical range of number of floors. Minimum, maximum and average
• Determine the quantity of these objects within 1 ha. Use minimum, maximum and average values.
Describe what these values mean.
• Search for replacement costs for these objects. How much would the costs of these objects be. Use
minimum, average and maximum values.
• Determine if there are other costs involved if the land use class would be damaged: estimate these
as the indirect costs.
• Make a calculation of the total minimum, maximum and average total costs of the land use class
per m2.
• Do this in an Excel sheet.

Population estimation
• For the same land use class
• Describe the various population distribution scenarios that could be possible within the land use
class.
• Determine the percentage of the time that these scenarios would occur.
• Determine the number of people present in the land use class per hectare within each of your
scenarios.
• Make a calculation of the total minimum, maximum and average number of people in the use class
per m2.
• Present the results in an Excel sheet

3.1 Input data: Vulnerability curves
Another very important component in the analysis are the vulnerability curves. A vulnerability curve
expresses the relation between the hazard intensity (e.g. water depth) and the degree of damage
which is expressed between 0 and 1 for a specific type of element‐at‐risk. Vulnerability curves are
derived from past disaster events by correlating observed intensities with observed damage and
deriving average regression lines from these. Vulnerability curves may also be derived through
computer modelling (e.g. finite element models where a particular building is exposed to a particular
intensity and the effect is calculated) or through expert opinion.
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For this exercise we have made a number of vulnerability curves for all the combinations of the hazard
intensity types and the elements‐at‐risk types. We have used existing curves from the literature, but
needed to make a lot of changes as we didn’t have the curves for all of the units. For the analysis these
curves should be implemented in the GIS. This is why the curves have been converted into tables.
In the dataset there are curves for buildings, and land parcels, and separate curves for the physical
losses (required for the economic risk analysis) and for the population losses (people killed).

Hazard type Intensity type Buildings (BU) Land parcels (LP)
Flood (FL) Waterdepth Physical vulnerability (PH) Physical vulnerability (PH)
(in cm) (DE) Population vulnerability (PO) Population vulnerability
(PO)
Debris flows and Impact pressure Physical vulnerability (PH) Physical vulnerability (PH)
mudflows (DF) (in KPa) (IP) Population vulnerability (PO) Population vulnerability
(PO)
Landslides (LS) No intensity Single vulnerability value per Single vulnerability value
type per type

The codes in the table above indicate the various aspects of the vulnerability curves. For instance the
naming of the vulnerability curves should be as follows:
VUL_01_02_03_04:
 01 refers to the hazard type (FL, DF, LS)
 02 refers to the intensity measurement (WD, IP etc)
 03 refers to the type of element at risk (BU, LP)
 04 refers to the type of vulnerability (PH, PO)
For example:
 VUL_FL_DE_LP_PH: Vulnerability curves for flooding, expressed in water depth, for land
parcels, and showing the physical vulnerability.
 VUL_DF_IP_LP_PO: Vulnerability curves for debris flows, expressed in impact pressure, for
land parcels, and showing the population vulnerability.

Continuation assignment 1.
 Open a vulnerability curve (e.g. VUL_FL_DE_LP_PH) and check the values in the table. What do
the column names mean? (hint: Open the domain Landuse).
 Add a column Depth (Values) and indicate the minimum depth for each class as indicated in the
left column.
 Select the plot graph option, select Depth column as X‐Axis and display the vulnerability curves
for various land use types of elements‐at‐risk.
 Select the same land use type that you had selected earlier in the previous page for the value
and cost estimation.
 Carry out a literature search for possible vulnerability curves. Make an Excel sheet in which you
include the range of values (From and To columns) and the corresponding vulnerability. Do this
for flooding, debrisflow, landslides and tsunami. Explain in the excel why these values were
taken.
• Indicate in the cure also the range of uncertainty.
• Make such curves for the physical damage of the objects within the land use class, and the
population within the land use class.
• Describe the steps you took, the assumptions, and the limitations.

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4. Exercise 3: Loss analysis
Risk is the probability of losses that may occur in the future due to different types of hazards. Hazards,
such as floods, landslides, earthquakes, tsunami’s have a relation between the frequency of occurrence
and the magnitude of the event. The intensity is the spatially distributed effect of a hazard event (e.g.
water depth during a flood varies over an area based on the topography and other factors). Intensity
maps for different return
periods are obtained
through hazard
modelling. In this case
study these data are
provided for three types
of hazards (floods,
debrisflows, landslides).
Also coastal hazards may
be considered in this case
study. Elements‐at‐risk
are all objects, people ,
activities that may be
affected by a hazardous
event, and cause losses.
The spatial overlay of
hazard intensity maps and
elements‐at‐risk maps is called
exposure. Elements‐at‐risk exposed to a
certain hazard intensity may be damaged to a
certain degree. This is defined by vulnerability
curves.

Loss estimation for each combination of a hazard map (for a given return period) and an elements‐
at‐risk map. This done using the following steps:
 Cross the intensity map with the elements‐at‐risk map. For land parcels and line elements
these are subdivided into smaller units with the same intensity. For building footprints and
points the maximum intensity is taken.
 For each of the combination units of hazard intensity and elements‐at‐risk type, the intensity
value is used in the lookup table of the vulnerability and the vulnerability value is then used.
This is done separately for physical vulnerability and population vulnerability.
 Then the loss is calculated:
o Physical vulnerability * value * spatial probability (for economic losses)
o Population vulnerability * people * spatial probability (for population losses)
Risk analysis is done after that: based on an administrative unit map, this map is crossed with the
results of the loss estimation, and the losses are aggregated for the unit. When losses are calculated
for at least three different hazard intensity maps with different return periods, the losses are plotted
on the X‐Axis of a graph and the annual probabilities of these on the Y‐axis. The points are connected
with a graph: so‐called risk curve. The area under the curve is calculated, and is define as the annual
risk. The annual risk is used in the cost‐benefit analysis, where the difference in annual risk before and
after the implementation of risk reduction measures (benefit) is compared with the costs of
implementation.

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In this section it is shown how you can do the loss estimation. First we show you how you can do this
step by step using GIS. In the second section we will show you how to use automatic calculation
scripts to do the procedure.

4.1 Do the procedure yourself
This exercise shows how to carry out for risk analysis for buildings instead of land parcels, because it
is a bit easier (as there are less building types than land use types). We will illustrate it for one
combination of hazard : flooding with a return period of 20 years.
First the loss calculation is done for each combination of hazard intensity maps of a certain return
period and the elements at risk map.
The loss calculation is composed of a number of steps illustrated in the figure below:
We will do the loss calculation first manually in a number of steps
Step 1: Rasterize
Rasterize the elements‐at‐risk map (BU_2020_A0_S0) using the georeferenced (Island) and name
output raster map: BU_2020_A0_S0

Step 2: What is the hazard intensity for each building?
Overlay the raster map BU_2020_A0_S0 with the hazard intensity map. In this case with
FL_DE_20_A0. (Operations, Raster Operations, Cross). Create crosstable: XFL_DE_20_A0_BU.
Open the table and check the contents. Check if some buildings have more than one value for
depth.

Step 3: What is the maximum hazard intensity for each building?
Calculate the maximum flood depth per building. In the Table XFL_DE_20_A0_BU, select Column,
Aggregate. Select the column with the depth. Make sure to take the maximum, of the records
grouped by the building codes. Store the results in the table BU_2020_A0_S0

Step 4: Classify the hazard intensity for each building?
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In order to be able to link the hazard intensity with the vulnerability, we will classify the hazard
intensities into classes. The same classes are used to define the vulnerability values.
Open the vulnerability table: VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH (Physical vulnerability curves for flooding, using
depth as hazard intensity for buildings). What do the various columns mean?
Open the table BU_2020_A0_S0. We will now classify the flood depth using the class/group
domain FL_DE. You do this in the command line, using the form: output:= CLFY(ValueColumn,
GroupDomain)
So for example: FL_DE_20_A0_CL:=CLFY(FL_DE_20_A0,FL_DE)

Step 5: Bring in the vulnerability values.
Since each building might be of another type, and vulnerability functions are for each type, we
need to join the vulnerability values for all building types and then check which one is correct.
Use the Join Operation (Columns, Join) and bring in all vulnerability columns into the table
BU_2020_A0_S0. You can do this using the menu structure (Column, Join) or through the
command line. In that case the equation would look like:
For example: MA_1 := ColumnJoin(VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH.tbt,MA_1, FL_DE_20_A0_CL )
You must do this for all building types: MA_1 (Masonry, one floor), MA_2, Ma_3, RC_1
(Reinforced concrete, one floor), RC_2, RC_3, RC_4, WO_1 (Wood, one floor)

Step 6: Determine which of the vulnerability values is relevant for each building
As we now have the vulnerability for all types of buildings we need to use some calculations to
analyze which of the vulnerability values applies for each particular building. We do this with a
calculation that has the form:
Vuln:=iff(Condition,Then,Else)
The actual calculation contains a nested IFF statement:
VULNERABILITY :=
iff(Type="MA_1",MA_1,iff(Type="MA_2",MA_2,Iff(type="MA_3",MA_3,iff(Type="RC_1",RC_1,iff(T
ype="RC_2",RC_2,iff(Type="RC_3",RC_3,iff(Type="RC_4",RC_4,iff(Type="WO_1",WO_1, ?))))))))

Step 7: Do we have a spatial probability value?
Some of the hazard maps have a spatial probability instead of a hazard intensity. For these
situations we use this value in the loss calculation, and otherwise a value of 1. The spatial probability
indicates the chance that the element at risk will actually be affected by the hazard. For example
when we have a hazard maps that indicates the probability of landslides within a given mapping
unit, this is considered the spatial probability. For hazard maps resulting from physically based
modeling we assume the spatial probability is 1 (=modelled areas are sure to have the hazard of
that intensity).
We now calculate a column that has an indication whether we are dealing with a spatial probability
map. This is done by creating a column SPCheck and then checking if the entered value is SP (Spatial
Probability) or not.
SPcheck {domain=String} := "SP"
IF this is the case, we use the spatial probability, otherwise a value of 1.
SP := iff( SPcheck = "DE", FL_DE_20_A0, 1)

Step 8: Calculate the losses
The losses are calculated for the buildings, by multiplying the vulnerability with the value of the
exposed elements at risk, and the spatial probability that the element at risk is actually hit by the
hazardous phenomenon.
This is done using a calculation such as:
LOSS_FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH := VULNERABILITY*Value*SP

Step 9: Aggregate the losses
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Finally we can aggregate the losses for the administrative units. We first need to know for each
building in which administrative unit it is located.
We do that by crossing the building map with the admin_units map. Use Operations, Raster
Operations, Map Crossing. Create a cross table BU_Admin.
Join the Admin_units in the table BU_2020_A0_S0.
Use Column , Aggregate, and sum up the losses for the admin_units, and store the results in the
table Admin_units.

4.2 Understand the script for building loss analysis
The Loss analysis has to be done for each combination of a hazard map (for a given return period)
and an elements‐at‐risk map. Each loss estimation requires a number of steps, which make that doing
this type of analysis manually is very time consuming. Therefore we are using an automated script,
which combines a number of calculations and operations, and uses parameters.
It is not really required that you understand each individual step of the analysis, because we have
combined them into one file, called a script file that contains all above calculation steps. You can run
the total analysis in one go. the only thing you need to specify is: for which combinations of hazard
type, return period, and element‐at‐risk map do I make the loss assessment. This is done by indicating
the variables in a script.
The script is called “Loss_calculation_BU”. This is the loss calculation for buildings. There is also a file
called Loss_calculation_LP, which makes the loss calculation per land parcels.

 Open the script Loss_calculation_BU and have a look at the codes.
 Copy the text of the script into Word and replace the variables as follows:
%1 = FL = Hazard Type (e.g. FL, DF, LS)
%2= DE = Intensity measure (e.g. DE, IP)
%3= 20 = Return period (e.g. 020)
%4= 2020 = Future Year (2020, 2030, 2040, 2050)
%5= A0 = Risk reduction alternative (A0, A1, A2,A3)
%6= S0 = Scenario (S1, S2, S3, S4)
%7= PH = Physical or population Risk (PH or PO)
%8= Value = Value or People (If you select PH for A0 you should select Value, otherwise People)

It does the following steps. In red the parts of the scripts are indicated :

1. Rasterize the building map (e.g. BU_2020_A0_S0). Note that the lines starting with // are
only for information and are not executed when running the script.
//First rasterize the element‐at‐risk map
BU_2020_A0_S0.mpr := MapRasterizePolygon(BU_2020_A0_S0.mpa,Island.grf)

2. Overlay the building map with the hazard intensity map. This is done with the Cross
operation. For example the element‐at‐risk map BU_2020_A0_S0 is crossed with the hazard
intensity map, e.g. FL_DE_20_A0
//Then overlay the element at risk map with the hazard intensity map
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt := TableCross(BU_2020_A0_S0, FL_DE_20_A0, IgnoreUndefs)

//Make sure the cross table is calculated
Calc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt

3. The resulting cross table (joint frequency table) contains all combinations of the land parcel
code and the intensity values (e.g. water depths). Classify the results, according to the
classification of the hazard intensity (e.g. domain class group FL_DE), so that the result is in
the form of classes, which can be used to join with the vulnerability tables.
20

//Classify the results.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt FL_DE_20_A0_CL:=CLFY(FL_DE_20_A0,FL_DE)

4. As buildings are sometimes large and only part of them might be actually exposed to hazard
intensity the script calculates the losses first for the parts of the buildings with the same
intensity. In order to know which fraction of building has a certain intensity, the script reads
in in the area of the whole building from the attribute table of the land parcel map.

//We need to know which fraction of each building footprint has a certain intensity. Therefore we first read in the
area of the whole building footprint
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt AreaBU := ColumnJoin(BU_2020_A0_S0.tbt,Area, BU_2020_A0_S0)

5. Then the script calculates the fraction of the building (Area of the building in the joint
frequency table / the area of the entire building).

//Then we calculate the fraction of the building footprint.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt Fraction := Area/AreaBU

6. Then the script joins with the attribute table of the building and reads in the amount column
either value or people, depending on the input provided by the user.)

//The we read in the amount column (Value is either value or people)
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt ValueBU := ColumnJoin(BU_2020_A0_S0.tbt,Value,BU_2020_A0_S0)

7. The script uses this then to calculate the amount for each combination of building and
intensity class

//We use this then to calculate the amount for each combination of building footprint and intensity class
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt Value {dom=value | 0 ; ;1} := Fraction*ValueBU

8. The script joins with the attribute table of the building and reads in the building types.

//We the also read in the land use types.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt Type := ColumnJoin(BU_2020_A0_S0.tbt,Type, BU_2020_A0_S0)

9. The script joins with the vulnerability table (of the hazard type indicated) and reads in the
vulnerability values for all building types. The script needs to joint all vulnerability types.

//Now we start bringing in the vulnerability values.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt MA_1 := ColumnJoin(VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH.tbt,MA_1, FL_DE_20_A0_CL )
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt RC_1 := ColumnJoin(VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH.tbt,RC_1, FL_DE_20_A0_CL )
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt RC_3:= ColumnJoin(VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH.tbt,RC_3, FL_DE_20_A0_CL )
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt WO_1 := ColumnJoin(VUL_FL_DE_BU_PH.tbt,WO_1, FL_DE_20_A0_CL )

10. The vulnerability for each record is calculated by taking the vulnerability value of the column
that has the same building code as in the record .

TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt VULNERABILITY :=
iff(Type="MA_1",MA_1,iff(Type="MA_2",MA_2,Iff(type="MA_3",MA_3,iff(Type="RC_1",RC_1,iff(Type="RC_2",RC_2,iff
(Type="RC_3",RC_3,iff(Type="RC_4",RC_4,iff(Type="WO_1",WO_1, ?))))))))

21

11. The script calculates a column that has an indication whether we are dealing with a spatial
probability map. This is done by creating a column SPCheck and then checking if the entered
value is SP (Spatial Probability) or not.

//We now calculate a column that has an indication whether we are dealing with a spatial probability map
//This is done by creating a column SPCheck and then checking if the entered value is SP (Spatial Probability) or not.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt SPcheck {domain=String} := "SP

12. If this is the case, we use the spatial probability, otherwise a value of 1.
//IF this is the case, we use the spatial probability, otherwise a value of 1.
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt SP := iff( SPcheck = "DE", FL_DE_20_A0, 1)

13. The script then calculates the loss by multiplying the amount * vulnerability * spatial
probability.
//Calculating loss
TabCalc FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt LOSS_FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH {dom=value; vr=0: 1000000000 :1} :=
VULNERABILITY*Value*SP

14. In order to bring back the information at the level of the land parcels, the script aggregates
the loss for the land parcels and put the results in the table Results_BU
//Aggregate loss for the buildings and put the results in the table Results_BU
TabCalc Results_BU.tbt FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH:= ColumnJoinSum(FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0.tbt,
LOSS_FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH, BU_2020_A0_S0,1)

15. The script also aggregates the loss for the administrative units and stores the results in the
Table Results_Admin_units
//Aggregate loss for the administrative Units and put the results in the Table Results_Admin_units
TabCalc Results_Admin_units FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH := ColumnJoinSum(Results_BU.tbt,
FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH,admin_units,1)

16. The script aggregates the losses for the whole area and stores the results in the Table
Result_Total_area
//Aggregate loss for the whole area and put the results in the Table Result_Total_area
TabCalc Results_Total_Area FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH := ColumnJoinSum(Results_Admin_units.tbt,
FL_20_2020_A0_S0_PH,Total_Area,1)

17. The script then deletes all the intermediate files
//Deleting the intermediate files
//Del FL_DE_20_A0_CL.* ‐force
Del FL_DE_20_2020_A0_S0*.* ‐force

 Check which of the steps in the script are done additionally to what you did manually earlier,
and consider why they are done.
 You can run the script in various ways. On the command line type:
Run Loss_calculation_BU
 Open the script and press the run button.

Then the following input screen shows .
22

 Fill in the right values. Make sure
for the return period to fill in
values without decimals (so 20
and not 20.000) and also for the
future year.
 Click OK. The script will run and it
will take some minutes to
complete.

The script stores the results in three
tables:
 Results_BU : the results for each building. Generally this is too detailed.
 Results_BU_Admin_Unit: the results are stored per administrative unit. This is the level for
which we want to calculate the risk.
 Results_BU_Total_Area: the results aggregated for the entire area. If you do a cost‐benefit
analysis, using single values for the entire area could be used.

4.3 Understand the script for loss analysis of land parcels
In the remainder of the tutorial we will do the loss calculation for Land Parcels. We use the
Loss_calculation_LP script, which has the following variables.
The script uses nine parameters, which you can change every time, so you can use the script for all
possible combinations:
 %1 = Hazard Type (e.g. FL, DF, LS)
 %2 = Intensity measure (e.g. DE, IP)
 %3 = Return period (e.g. 20)
 %4 = Future Year (2020, 2050)
 %5 = Risk reduction alternative (A0, A1,
A2,A3)
 %6 = Scenario (S1, S2, S3, S4)
 %7 = Physical or population Risk (PH or PO)
 %8 = Value or People (If you select PH for %7
you should select Value, otherwise People)
 %9 = Spatial Probability (either 1 or the letters SP)

 You can run the script in various ways. On the command line type:
Run Loss_calculation_LP
 Open the script and press the run button. Fill in the variables. Do the calculation for Flood
(FL), Depth (DE), with a return period of 20 years, in 2020, for the current situation (A0, and
S0) for physical damage (PH) and value (Value).
 Check the results in the table: Results_LP_Admin_Units. Which of the administrative units
have the highest flood loss?

4.4 Automate the loss calculation for many combinations
You can also run the script bypassing the input screen. You can do that by typing the parameters
behind the script name, separeted by spaces.
For instance, on the command line:
23

 Run Loss_calculation_LP FL DE 20 2020 A0 S0 PH value

You can also prepare an input script where you write all the combinations for which you want to
calculate losses.

Assignment 2.
 Open the script Loss_Input_LP where you can adjust all the input lines, and after that run the
input script. The script contains all the combinations of hazard maps , return periods, and
alternatives for the current situation.
 Check the first lines. These are first deleting the existing data (from earlier work) and create
new tables . this is done in the following lines:
//Complete input script for loss calculations
//First delete the result tables if they are already there
del Results_LP.tbt ‐force
del Results_LP_Admin_Units.tbt ‐force
del Results_LP_total_area.tbt ‐force
//Now we create the result tables again
//first the result table for the landparcels
crtbl Results_LP LP
//we read in the column that shows the relation between land parcels and administrative
units
TabCalc Results_LP.tbt admin_units:= ColumnJoin(land_parcels.tbt,admin_units)
//Now we create the result table for the administrative units
crtbl Results_LP_Admin_Units admin_units
//we make sure that it contains a column total area
TabCalc Results_LP_Admin_Units.tbt Total_Area {dom=total_area}:="total_area"
//finally we create the table Results_LP_total_area
crtbl Results_LP_total_area total_area

 Make sure the input script contains the following lines:
Run Loss_calculation FL DE 20 2020 A0 S0 PH value
Run Loss_calculation DF IP 20 2020 A0 S0 PH value
Run Loss_calculation LS SP 20 2020 A0 S0 PH value
 When you type : Run Loss_input_LP and all the loss calculations are done in one go (it will
take some minutes).
 Check the results in the tables: Results_LP, Results_LP_admin_units and
Results_LP_total_area.
 Copy the results in an Excel file.
 As a result you get for each administrative unit the losses related to three return periods.

24

5. Exercise 4: Risk analysis
The risk analysis can be carried out if you have done the loss estimation for four return periods of the
hazard type(s) that were selected, and for the land parcel map that was selected, and the risk type
(physical or population)
The results of the loss calculation for all hazards and return periods are integrated later in the risk
calculation. See Figure below:
Loss Analysis is done first

For the risk analysis, the losses have already been aggregated for a given administrative unit. We
therefore use the map Admin_units. The risk is calculated by plotting the losses against the annual
probability and calculate the area under the curve. An approximation of the area under the curve is
to use the Dutch method that approximates this from a series of rectangles. The following equation
is used:
Risk =

25

So for example in the case below, when we would have loss information for 6 different return
periods (See table) the calculation would be:
Return period Damage (million)
T6 = 5 S6 = 2
T5 = 10 S5 =10
T4 = 25 S4 =100
T3 = 50 S3 =200
T2 = 100 S2 =500
T1 = 250 S1 =1000

Risk =
Million Per year
 In the Excel sheet, calculate the annualized risk for each administrative unit, and for the
entire area using the equation above.

5.1 Automate the risk calculation
When you are doing this for different hazard types it is also important to decide if the hazard types are
dependent or not. This means if they are related to the same triggering event. In our case the hazards
are all related to the same triggering: rainfall. We still do not incorporate the tsunami hazard in the
analysis yet. This is important for the estimation of the risk, where we take the maximum loss per
administrative unit of the various hazards, and do not add them up. We would therefore not add the
losses for different hazards, but would take the maximum losses for each of the hazards. We assume
that flooding and debris flows are depending on the same trigger, and may affect the same area.
Therefore we should not add the losses, but take the maximum losses for a given area from one of the
two hazards. Even though landslides are triggered also by rainfall, they affect different areas. So we
add up the losses from landslides and those from the maximum of floods / debrisflows.
The risk analysis can also be done using a script: Risk_calculation. It can only be executed after you
have calculated the losses using the script Loss_calculation_LP. The data should be available in the
table: Results_LP. It requires the individual losses for Floods (FL), Debrisflow (DF) and Landslides (LS)
for three return periods. This script does the following:
 For each land parcel it will calculate the maximum loss for the same return period resulting
either from flooding, landslides or debrisflows, as these events are caused by the same trigger.
 Then the resulting losses are aggregated by the administrative units;
 Then the annual risk is calculated using the equation indicated above;

The script has the following structure:

26

//SCRIPT FOR RISK CALCULATION
//parameters
//%1 = Year
//%2 = Alternative
//%3 = Scenario
//%4 = How does the 20 year Return Period change?
//%7= How does the 200 year Return Period change?

We assume that flooding, and debrisflows are depending on the same trigger, and affect the same
area, so we take the maximum of the two. And we add the landslide losses to that, as landslides are
not directly coupled with the other two hazards. If we also would have included Tsunami risk, it would
also be independent of the others and could have been added

TabCalc Results_LP Loss_%1_%2_%3_20:=Max(FL_20_%1_%2_%3_PH,DF_20_%1_%2_%3_PH)+LS_20_%1_%2_%3_PH

It means in the Table Results_LP create a column Loss_%1_%2_%3_20 (e.g. Loss_2020_A0_S0_20) by
taking the maximum of the flood losses (FL_20_%1_%2_%3_PH) and debris flow losses
(DF_20_%1_%2_%3_PH) and add the landslide losses (LS_20_%1_%2_%3_PH). This is done for each
land parcel. This is done for the other return periods as well.

Then we sum up all the losses for administrative units. In the table Risk Results, the values of the losses
for the individual return periods are summed up per administrative unit (admin_units). This is done for
all return periods
TabCalc Risk_Results Loss_%1_%2_%3_20:=ColumnJoinSum(Results_LP.tbt,Loss_%1_%2_%3_20,admin_units,1)
TabCalc Risk_results Loss_%1_%2_%3_50:=ColumnJoinSum(Results_LP.tbt,Loss_%1_%2_%3_50,admin_units,1)
Then the risk equation is applied, which was demonstrated in the beginning of this chapter. In this case
we have 4 return periods and 4related losses. %7 refers to 200 year Return period, %6 to 100 , %5 to
50, and %4 to 20 year return period. The results are stored as a column AR_%1_%2_%3 (e.g.
AR_2020_A0_S0)
TabCalc Risk_results AR_%1_%2_%3:= Loss_%1_%2_%3_200*(1/%7) + (((1/%6)‐
(1/%7))*(Loss_%1_%2_%3_200+Loss_%1_%2_%3_100)/2) +(((1/%5)‐
(1/%6))*(Loss_%1_%2_%3_100+Loss_%1_%2_%3_50)/2)+(((1/%4)‐(1/%5))*(Loss_%1_%2_%3_20+ Loss_%1_%2_%3_50)/2)
Finally, we delete the three loss columns again
delcol Risk_results.tbt.Loss_%1_%2_%3_20

The script uses the following parameters:
%1 = Year
%2 = Alternative
%3 = Scenario
%4 = What will be the value for the 20 year
return period?
return period?
return period?

27

The four return periods %4 , %5, %6, and %7 allow us later to change the return periods in climate
change scenarios where we assume that due to climate change the frequency of the hazard events will
increase.
We will run the risk analysis for the current situation:
 Year = 2020, Alternative = A0, Scenario = S0, First return period = 20, Second return period =
50, Third return period = 100, fourth return period = 200

Continuation Assignment 2
 Run the script Risk_Calculation and fill in these parameters. Make sure to delete the
decimals for year, and return periods.
o When the calculation is finished, open the table Risk_Results, and find out: the
administrative units with the highest risk, and the total annualized risk for the entire
area. Include this in your report for Assignment 2.

If you still have time and feel like it, it would be interesting to include also the tsunami hazard in the
multi‐hazard risk analysis. In this case :
 Run the loss analysis for the various tsunami return periods. Adopt the file: Loss_Input_LP,
and add the lines for calculating the losses for the various return periods, for the 2020 year.
 Then either run the risk script or do the calculation in the Excel sheet.
 You need to adjust the script Risk_calculation as well and add the tsunami losses to the total
losses (e.g. TabCalc Results_LP Loss_%1_%2_%3_20:=
Max(FL_20_%1_%2_%3_PH,DF_20_%1_%2_%3_PH)+LS_20_%1_%2_%3_PH+TS_20_%1_A0_S0
28

6. Exercise 5: Analyse the risk for possible risk
reduction alternatives
In the previous exercise you calculated the losses for the current situation for three hazard types
(flooding, debris flows and landslides) and for different return periods (1 in 20 years, 1 in 50 years and
1 in 100 years). These losses were combined in annual risk, for the 19 administrative units in the study
area. The results show that in some of the administrative units the risk is higher than in others.
Therefore it is important to take action and plan for risk reduction measures to reduce the risk

In this exercise we will identify three risk reduction alternatives and reanalyse the risk, calculate the
risk reduction (which is the average annual risk after the implementation minus the current average
annual risk). We will later also make an estimation of the costs for the alternatives and carry out a cost‐
benefit analysis.

Scenario: Possible Future Alternative: risk Now Average Risk
trends reduction options 2020 Annual reduction
risk
S0 (Without including any A0 (no risk reduction) 2020_A0_S0 A

future trends) A1 Engineering 2020_A1_S0 B A‐B
A2 Ecological 2020_A2_S0 C A‐C
A3 Relocation 2020_A3_S0 D A‐D

6.1 Loss analysis of the alternatives
The first step is to reanalyse the losses , but now for the new situations that would exist if the risk
reduction alternatives would be implemented. In section 2.3 you have seen the various input maps
that are required for each of the three alternatives.

Alternative 1 (Engineering measures). The hazard maps and elements‐at‐risk maps should be updated.
Constructing the engineering measures will greatly reduce the flood, debrisflow and landslide hazards.
However, as the most eastern watershed is not considered in the plans, there the flood and debris
flow hazard will remain the same. The engineering works have been designed for a return period of
100 years. Therefore we have also modelled the 1 in 200 year event, and for this situation the
engineering works will be partly overtopped. The construction of the storage basins requires to change
the land use and relocate some of the houses which are in the location of the storage basins. Therefore
also a new elements‐at‐risk map is needed.

Alternative 2 (Ecological measures). Also the both hazard maps and elements‐at‐risk maps should be
remade, as they both will change as a consequence of the risk reduction alternative. The plantation of
the protective forest will greatly reduce the hazards, however, not as much as the construction of the
engineering works. It will also take a number of years before the trees in the protective forest are tall
enough to have their full protection function. Also for the plantation of the protective forest some land
parcels will have to change their land use and some buildings have to be relocated.

Alternative 3 (relocation). Only the elements‐at‐risk will change. This alternative doesn't involve the
reduction of hazards, but only the reduction of the exposed elements‐at‐risk (buildings in the
residential areas or farms). Therefore the same hazard maps can be used as for the current situation.

29

Similarly as the analysis which was done for the current risk we are doing this analysis in two steps:
‐ Loss analysis for each individual combination of hazard set (for a given date, hazard type and
return period) and elements‐at‐risk (the land parcel map for the given scenario and future
year).
‐ Risk analysis by combining the loss results for different hazards and return periods.

We will use the script Loss_calculation_LP for that.

 Adapt the script Loss_input_LP and add the specific combinations of alternatives, hazard
types and elements‐at‐risk. The best is to copy the text in a text editor and adjust the
parameters like the alternative.
etc
 Add the lines for the three hazards (FL, DF, LS) and return periods (20,50,100, 200) and the
alternatives (A1, A2, A3)
 Also make sure to remove the lines in the script that delete the existing tables and create
them new. You can also put // in front of the command so it will be skipped when it is
executed. Like this
//Complete input script for loss calculations for land parcels
//First delete the result tables if they are already there
//del Results_LP.tbt ‐force
//del Results_LP_Admin_Units.tbt ‐force
//del Results_LP_total_area.tbt ‐force
//Now we create the result tables again
//first the result table for the landparcels
//crtbl Results_LP LP
//we read in the column that shows the relation between land parcels and administrative
units
//TabCalc Results_LP.tbt admin_units:= ColumnJoin(land_parcels.tbt,admin_units)
//Now we create the result table for the administrative units
//crtbl Results_LP_Admin_Units admin_units
//we make sure that it contains a column total area
//TabCalc Results_LP_Admin_Units.tbt Total_Area {dom=total_area}:="total_area"
//finally we create the table Results_LP_total_area
//crtbl Results_LP_total_area total_area
 After generating the input script, you can run it and one by one the actual loss estimation
script (Loss_calculation_LP) is calculated, every time with another set of input data.
 As with the previous time the results of the analysis are written in three tables with the
results: Results_LP (for each landparcel the results are stored), Result_LP_Admin_Units
(results aggregated per administrative units) and Results_LP_Total (Aggregated values for
the entire area).
 The calculation might take some time (depending on the speed of your computer)
 When the calculation is completed, check the results from the tables indicated above.
 Copy and paste the results in the Excel sheet. Make each alternative in a separate
worksheet.

30

6.2 Risk analysis of the alternatives
After doing the loss estimation for the three risk reduction alternatives, the next step is to calculate
the annual risk for these three. You can do this in Excel and also using the script

 In Excel calculate the annual risk for the situation after the implementation of the three risk
reduction alternatives
 Do this calculation for each of the administrative units, and also for the entire area. Use the
equation given in chapter 5.
 After calculating the annual risk after the implementation , subtract the annual risk for the
current situation to obtain the risk reduction for each alternative.

The risk analysis can also be done using the scrip Risk_calculation (the same as used in the previous
exercise) for the different risk reduction measures. Remember that the script has the following
variables:

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
%1 Year 2020 2020 2020
%2 Alternative A1 A2 A3
%3 Scenario S0 S0 S0
%4 What will be the 20 year 20 20 20
Return Period?
%5 What will be the 50 year 50 50 50
Return Period?
%6 What will be the 100 100 100 100
year Return Period?
%7 What will be the 200 200 200 200
year Return Period?

Note that in this script the calculation is first done at the land parcel level, and then the results are
aggregated to the admin units.
The input data for the risk analysis is handled through the scrip Risk_input.

 Make sure that the script Risk_input contains the right input data:

run risk_calculation_4RP 2020 A1 S0 20 50 100 200

Note that we first calculate the current risk, and then calculate the risk for the three alternatives.

Assignment 3
 Then run the script by typing on the command line:
Run Risk_input
 Copy to the results to the Excel table, and present them in a graph (risk curves) in which you
show the average annual risk before and after the implementation of the alternative, and
calculate the difference, which is the annual risk reduction or benefit;
 Compare the results that you calculate directly in Excel and the results that were obtained
through the script. What can you conclude?
31

If you still have time and feel like it, it would be interesting to include also the tsunami hazard in the
evaluation of the risk reduction for the three alternatives. In this case :
 Run the loss analysis for the various tsunami return periods. Adopt the file: Loss_Input_LP,
and add the lines for calculating the losses for the various return periods, for the three risk
reduction alternatives.
 Then either run the risk script or do the calculation in the Excel sheet.

32

7. Exercise 6: Cost benefit analysis of the alternatives
After calculating the risk curves and annual risk for the current situation and for one or more of the
three alternatives, you can analyse which of the alternatives leads to the highest risk reduction (the
largest benefit). However, the costs for the alternative might be much higher. Therefore it is important
to also analyse the cost‐benefit relation.
7.1 Calculating the costs
In order to do that you need to estimate the costs for each of the alternatives. For that you need to
analyse:
 The initial investment costs
 The period over which these investment costs are made
 In which year after the start of the construction are the benefits achieved.
 The annual maintenance costs
 The total duration of the project. In our case we will use a project lifetime of 50 years.
The initial investment costs are composed of all the costs needed to carry out the alternative. The
implementation of each alternative will have a number of components that each costs money. The
first part of the analysis is to identify all the individual cost options. The table below shows an example
of these.
Item Alternative 1: Alternative 2: Alternative 3:

Engineering solutions Ecological solutions Relocation.
Item related to Expropriating existing houses Expropriating existing Expropriating existing
construction costs where green belt is constructed houses where green belt is houses
constructed
Expropriating land where green Expropriating land where Lawsuits
belt is constructed green belt is constructed
Construction of retention basins Planting trees Construction of new
buildings (or)
Slope stabilization Constructing water tanks Giving compensation to
expropriated owners
Slope stabilization
How long does the
construction take?
In which year does
the benefit start?
Annual maintenance
costs
Project lifetime 40 years this is the time for which the cost‐benefit ratio will be evaluated.

The following aspects should be considered:
 Display the maps of the alternatives on top of the image or hillshading map and check with the
information from the table below.
33

Items related to construction Time of Benefit starts Annual Maintenance
cost construction
Alternative 1:  Storage basins The construction In the 4th year the full From year 4, it will be

engineering construction, with a unit of the project 100% risk reduction needed to clean the
solutions value for each sediment takes 3 years will start. sediment retention
storage basin. basins each year. Also
 Slope stabilization by annual surveillance of
removal of the soil from upper slopes is
the triangular areas needed.
indicated in the plan.
 Expropriation of land and
existing buildings where
construction will take place
Alternative 2:  Expropriation of land and In first year the From the second year From year 2 annual
Ecological existing buildings where trees are the benefit starts to maintenance consists
solutions construction will take place planted, full grow but it will take a of surveillance of the
 Slope stabilization by project takes 3 number of years upper slopes for
removal of the soil from years (when the trees are landslide signs.
the triangular areas large enough to
indicated in the plan. protect) to make the
 Water tank construction 100% benefit.
and construction of
drainage channels, with
unit value per water tank.
Alternative 3:  Compensation of owners of It may take a The benefit increases From year 1 it is
Relocation buildings with a fixed certain number from the first year and needed to regularly
amount per building (don’t of years (e.g. 5) growths survey the area, to
make this too high) or before all the proportionally with make sure that no
 You decide to make a buildings are the number of new buildings are
relocation site in a safe relocated. buildings that are constructed illegally
area, with fixed values per relocated to 100%
buildings. benefit in the 6th year
 There will be a certain
percentage of home
owners that do not want to
move, and lawsuits should
be budgeted.

For each of these items you need to make an estimation. The costs estimation can be done in the

following ways:
 Calculating the area of land that will change. You can do that using the building maps or the
land parcel maps of the present situation and of the alternatives (e.g. LP_2020_A0 as land
parcel map of the current situation). This map also has value information and information on
the number of people. When you overlay (e.g. using the Cross operation) these with the land
parcel map for the alternative (e.g. LP_2020_A1 for the parcel map of the first alternative)
you can calculate how much area of land will change and their values.
34

 You can also calculate the area of the land that is converted from the current situation to for
example the tree belt under Alternative 2, or the number of retention basin under
Alternative 1. You can then use values per m2 in the calculation.
 Make an estimation of the unit costs per m2 that you are using in the analysis, or search for
reasonable values on the internet.
 Prepare an Excel sheet in which you make a line for each year, and a column for each of the
components of the cost analysis. See example below:

Year Alternative 1: Engineering Alternative 2: Ecological solutions Alternative 3: Relation
solutions

Storage basin
Expropriation
Tree planting
Maintenance
Maintenance
Maintenance
construction
stabilization
stabilization
Relocation
Lawsuits
Slope
Slope
Total
Total
Total
2020 A B C Sum(A:C) D E F G Sum(D:G) H I K Sum(H:J)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Etc
2050
etc

 After filling in the values in the Excel sheet you can also calculate the overall costs per year
for each of the alternatives (the columns: Total)
 Provide specific information on how you determined the costs in a separate worksheet in the
Excel file.

7.2 Entering the benefit values.
In the previous part of the exercise the benefits in terms of risk reduction have been calculated. The
table below gives a summary of the calculated reduction in annual risk reduction. The calculation on
the following pages gives the results of these calculation:
Current situation Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Annualized risk A0 A1 A2 A3
Risk Reduction A0‐A1 A0‐A2 A0‐A3

 Calculate the risk reduction (as the annualized risk for the current situation minus the
annualized risk for the alternative) for the 3 alternatives.
 Decide in which year the risk reduction will actually start. It may be possible that in the first
years you have investments, but no risk reduction yet, as the alternative to reduce the risk is
not finished.
 Think about this for the 3 alternatives and decide in which year we will actually reach the risk
reduction. Also how the risk reduction will grow over the year to the maximum value.
 In the Excel sheet add for each of the alternatives a column, called Risk Reduction for each of
the scenarios.
35

 In the Excel sheet calculate the Incremental Benefits, by Calculating the difference between
the Risk Reduction and the total of the costs per year. For the first years these values might
be negative.

solutions

Storage basin construction
Incremental benefit
Incremental benefit
Incremental benefit
Slope stabilization
Slope stabilization
`Risk Reduction
`Risk Reduction
`Risk Reduction
Expropriation
Tree planting
Maintenance
Maintenance
Maintenance
Relocation
Total costs
Total costs
Total costs
Lawsuits
2020 TC RR RR TC RR RR TC RR RR
‐ ‐ ‐
TC TC TC
2021
2022
2023
2024

7.3 Calculate the Net Present Value
In order to compare the costs with the benefits it is not enough to simple add up all the costs and the
benefits. These occur over different time periods. Also the costs are most in the beginning. We need
to take into account that the same amount of money in the future will be less valuable today, so it is
indeed profitable to invest now in order to have less costs in the future. We will need therefore to
calculate the so‐called net present value (NPV).
The Net Present Value (NPV) calculates the net present value of an investment by using a discount rate
and a series of future payments (negative values) and income (positive values). NPV is determined by
calculating the costs (negative) and benefits (positive) for each period of an investment. After the cash
flow for each period is calculated, the present value (PV) of each one is achieved by discounting its
future value (see Formula) at a periodic rate of return (the rate of return dictated by the market). NPV
is the sum of all the discounted future cash flows. Because of its simplicity, NPV is a useful tool to
determine whether a project or investment will result in a net profit or a loss. A positive NPV results in
profit, while a negative NPV results in a loss.
Rate: is the rate of discount over the length of one period
Value 1 value 2 … are the “arguments” representing the payments and income.
NPV = the discounted benefits and costs at a given discount rate.
An example is given below:
36

 In the Excel worksheet to the right of the table make a cell NPV ( Net Present Value) ;
 In the cell next to it insert the name Interest rate (which is the same as discount rate) and
enter the value of : 10%. (Don’t forget to indicate the % sign).
 In Excel: Click in your “NPV” cell
and select Formulas; select
Financial Functions.
 Select: NPV
 The Function Arguments Box
opens ( see figure) ;
 Select for Interest Rate 10%
 For value 1: select the whole
column down all the incremental
benefits; starting at year 1 up to
year 40.
 Click OK

 Repeat the NPV calculation, but now with different discount rates
 Determine at which discount rates the three risk reduction alternatives would have a positive
effect (a positive NPV). The higher the better.

7.4 Internal Rate of Return
The discount rate is the tricky part in this analysis. You could think of it as the rate which the investment
capital needed for the project could return if invested in an alternative venture. If, for example, the
capital required for Project A can earn 5% elsewhere, use this discount rate in the NPV calculation to
allow a direct comparison to be made between Project A and the alternative. This is not the same as
the interest rate of saving money, as the rate of investing it would be much higher. It also deals with
the fact that the value of money decreases over time.
Now we are going to calculate the Internal rate of return. The Internal Rate of Return is the discount
rate/interest rate at which the NPV=0
 In Excel: Select Formulas and select Financial Functions.
 Select: IRR
 The Function Arguments Box opens;
 Read the HELP file
 For values: select the whole column down all the incremental benefits; starting at year 1 up
to year 40.
 Click OK.

37

7.5 Comparing the alternatives and select the best one
Now we will compare the NPV and IRR values for the various risk reduction alternatives.
Assignment 4
 Calculate the NPV and IRR for the three alternatives. Calculate the NPV for 3 interest rates
 Compare the results.
 Decide which of the three alternatives is the best based on the cost‐benefit evaluation.

NPV at 5 % NPV at 10 % NPV at 20 % interest IRR

interest rate interest rate rate
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3

38

8. Exercise 7: Stakeholder workshop
The financial information on
risk reduction and cost‐
benefit is of course not the
only type of information that
is required to make a decision
on which risk reduction
alternative should be
adopted. There are often many other criteria that people will use, and these criteria will also be very
different among different stakeholders.
In this assignment you will do a role play exercise on a stakeholder meeting for the selection of the
optimal risk reduction alternative. The main objective is to develop a common suggestion for the best
risk reduction option / or a combination of options.
Some 15 years ago in a nearby area debris flows killed a number of people and created a lot of
damage. Engineering protection works were made. Some years ago the area itself was also
impacted by a landslide which destroyed 3 houses and killed 3 people. The central government has
made some money available for risk mitigation. There are three suggested scenarios for risk
mitigation (engineering solutions, ecological solutions and relocation options)
Which one to select? Different stakeholders might have very different views on this.

The following stakeholders are present in the meeting:
• Flood prone farmer (regularly affected by flooding and worried that this may increase in
future due to climate change);
• Landslide prone area resident (settled in the area some time ago without official building
permit, because of the nice location);
• Municipal technical officer (has the responsibility of the budget of the municipality, which is
already problematic, and has many conflicting issues to deal with).
• Elected Mayor (has the overall responsibility, but he is near to the end of the election term
and would like to be reelected).
• Environmental association (NGO, who is actively promoting the importance of sustainability
and climate change adaptation)
• Private sector organization (are in favor of full development of the area, and limited
restrictions by the government)
• Civil protection representative (has the responsibility of protecting the citizens from
dangers, avoid loss of lives, and injuries).

39

Assignment 5 (Group Assignment):
• Divide in groups of 6‐7 people. Use the breakout rooms in an online session.
• Decide who will be the moderator (e.g. the mayor)
• Divide among the group members the roles expressed above.
• Take some minutes so that each group member can consider his/her own role and
perceptions
• Start with identifying the main motivation of each stakeholder. What does the stakeholder
consider important?
• Each stakeholder explains what he/she likes and doesn’t like of the options from your
specific point of view as stakeholder.
• After a round of individual opinions, the stakeholders can also react on each other.
• Make an inventory of the risk reduction measures with which various stakeholders seem to
agree and together try to make a point to convince the ones that are against.
• Make a list of criteria that you consider important for the selection of the best alternative.
• Decide on the importance of the criteria.
• Develop a group option by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of the options
• You can also decide to make combinations of risk reduction options from the 3 alternatives,
or you can also include risk reduction options that have not been included in the 3 existing
ones.
• Identify the main agreement and disagreement points.
• Make your own plan for risk reduction measures and estimate the costs involved. Also see
which ones would give you the largest benefit
• How do you communicate your solution best? Acronym?
• Make a PowerPoint presentation, submit the presentation and present the results.

40

9. Exercise 9: Evaluate the changes for different
scenarios.
The aim of this component is to analyse the changes in land use, values and population over time due
to the different scenarios and the alternatives, and to describe the drivers, pressures , and changes.
We do this using the land parcel maps for the different combinations.

9.1 Input data: Possible future scenarios
The analysis of changes involves the definition of a number of scenarios, which can be seen as trends,
on which the users don’t have a direct influence. These can be in terms of:
 Climate change: involving changes in the magnitude‐frequency of precipitation extremes and
other relevant climatic stimuli (such as evaporation, days with snow cover) and in the
occurrence in the time of the year of these extremes (e.g. related to changes in springtime
temperature changes).
 Land use change: long term land use changes relate to socio‐economic developments that
might occur in an area.
 Population change: also related to political and socio‐economic developments within a
country.
The scenarios are possible developments, and several scenarios are possible for which it will be difficult
or impossible to indicate their probability of occurrence.

As explained in section 2.4 we will evaluate the change in risk under four possible future scenarios.
Name Land use change Climate change

Scenario 1 Business as usual Rapid growth without taking Limited change in climate
into account the risk expected
information
Scenario 2 Risk informed planning Rapid growth that takes into Limited change in climate
account the risk information expected
and extends the alternatives in
the planning
Scenario 3 Worst case Rapid growth without taking Extreme climate change
into account the risk expected, leading to more
information frequent extreme events
Scenario 4 Climate change Rapid growth that takes into Extreme climate change
adaptation account the risk information expected, leading to more
and extends the alternatives in frequent extreme events
the planning

If we would put the combinations of scenarios in a matrix the result would look like this. The names
of the elements‐at‐risk maps are given for each combination. Note that:
 for scenario 3 and 4 we are using the same element‐at‐risk maps as for scenario 1 and 2, but
we change the frequency of the hazard events (the return periods);
 The actual hazard maps used for the scenarios are the same as those for the alternatives. We
do not consider that the intensity will change. Only the return periods of the hazards will
change.

41

Possible future scenario: Now Elements_at_risk maps : land_parcels
2020 2030 2040 2050
S1 Business as usual LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2030_A0_S1 LP_2040_A0_S1 LP_2050_A0_S1
S2 Risk informed planning LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2030_A0_S2 LP_2040_A0_S2 LP_2050_A0_S2
S3 Worst case (Rapid growth + climate LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2030_A0_S1 LP_2040_A0_S1 LP_2050_A0_S1
change)
S4 Climate resilience (informed planning LP_2020_A0_S0 LP_2030_A0_S2 LP_2040_A0_S2 LP_2050_A0_S2
under climate change)

The change in return periods due to climate change effects for scenario 3 and 4 are indicated below:
New Return Periods 2050
Old Return Period Scenario 1 and 2 Scenario 3 and 4
Limited climate change Extreme climate change
20 (± 5) 17 (± 6) 11 (± 8)
50 (± 10) 45 (± 12) 25 (± 16)
100 (± 20) 90 (± 23) 55 (± 30)
200 (± 40) 180 (± 44) 110 (± 53)

Scenario 1: Business as usual
This scenario is a land use change scenario with a limited effect of climate change. The changes in

return periods will not be very high as compared to 2020. This means that the Paris agreements have
been implemented , and globally the amount of CO2 emission has been reduced, so that the global
warming has not reached dramatic effects and could stay to the level of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, the local government in this scenarios is acting as if there is “business as usual”, and that
there is not global crisis. They would have supported unplanned growth. The land use is expected to
change dramatically in this scenario. Land use change will be in the form of a rapid urbanization of the
study area, occupying the flat areas from North to South. This occurs in combination with a high
demand for land leading to increasing land prices and also to higher population densities.
The changes in land use are reflected in the land parcel map.
42

 We use the future reference year 2050.
 With respect to hazard types, we are considering flooding (FL), debrisflows (DF) and
landslides(LS) (and possibly tsunami hazards as well). We assume that the hazard intensities
and modelled areas stay the same, and the return periods change according to the table above.
So we can use the same hazard maps as for the current situation.
 With respect to elements‐at‐risk we are only considering Land_Parcels. Now we take into
account changes in population density and in the value of elements‐at‐risk. We also take into
account land‐use developments in the period until 2050.

Scenario 02: Risk Informed planning
In this scenario we have also achieved a stop on the acceleration of climate change and a more or less
stable condition in CO2 , and global temperature rise. There was also a rapid growth of population, due
to incoming population from nearby islands that were threatened by sea level rise. In this scenario, the
government has considered the risk information that was presented to them, and in the development
of the area, the risk information is taken into consideration. The development follows the alternatives
that have been defined. E.g. relocation will eventually lead to relocation of all dangerous areas.
Ecological alternatives will lead to a park land area without much economic activities. However, the
previous study did not consider the risk to tsunami, and therefore many of the developments are
planned along the coast.

Scenario 03: Worst case
In scenarios 3 and 4 the agreements to reduce CO2 emission have not led to actual implementation
and many countries have continues their CO2 emission by exploiting fossil fuel reserves and continue
using coal based electric power plants. The Co2 levels in the atmosphere have grown to dangerous
levels , and the global temperature has increased to almost 3 Degrees, which also produced all kinds
of feedback loops , such as permafrost thawing in the higher latitude regions. Sea level rise is becoming
severe (already passing 50 cm). New hazards may develop, such as forest fires. And the frequency of
weather related disasters has increased dramatically, as indicated in the table above. On top of that
43

the local government has also developed the area as if nothing was happening. Land use change will
be in the form of a rapid urbanization of the study area, occupying the flat areas from North to South.
This occurs in combination with a high demand for land leading to increasing land prices and also to
higher population densities. The changes in land use are the same as for scenario 1 and therefore we
will use the same land parcel map (LP_2050_A0_S1).

Scenario 04: Climate change adaptation
In this scenario the extreme climate change is leading also to large changes in the frequency of the
hydrometeorological events, and there are many people that come to the study area from other areas
that have been affected even worse. Therefore there is an urgent demand for more residential areas.
The government, however, tries to mitigate the effects of climate change as much as possible by taking
the risk into account in the development planning. The risk information is taken into consideration,
and the development follows the alternatives that have been defined. E.g. relocation will eventually
lead to relocation of all dangerous areas. Ecological alternatives will lead to a park land area without
much economic activities. The changes in land use are the same as for scenario 2 and therefore we will
use the same land parcel map (LP_2050_A0_S2).

We have generated the various land parcel maps in such a way that they have the same polygon
boundaries, but the contents (attributes: type, value and population) change from one situation to
another.

 Check that the polygon boundaries are the same by comparing different land parcel maps.
 Use the PixelInfo programme and load in the series of land parcels maps that you would like
to compare. Moving over the map with the mouse will show you how land use types change
from period to another.

9.2 Analysing the changes in land use , value and people.
In this section we will concentrate on analysing the changes in the various scenarios. You can choose
whether you would like to analyse the change in land use type, the value of the elements‐at‐risk or the
number of people. Each of the three topics are explained below.

Analysing land use changes
 Open the table LP_2020_A0_S0. Check whether the statistics pane is visible. You can read
the total area for this combination, and the area of each land use polygon.
 In order to analyse the change in land use we will calculate the area of the land use types.
 Select Columns Aggregation, and select the column Area. Function: Sum, group by: Type ;
Output Table: Landuse_change, and Output Column: Area_2020_S0
 Now follow the same procedure for the two land parcel maps for 2050, in scenario 1 and 2.
Store the resulting columns also in the table Landuse_change, as: Area_2050_S1 and
Area_2050_S2.
 Make an analysis of the landuse changes in an Excel sheet.

44

Analysing land value changes
Land values are indicated per land parcel for each of the future scenarios and future years. The land
values were estimated based on the land use. The values include the objects on the land and the values
represent the replacement costs. In the value estimation the effect of inflation is not considered so
that it is better to compare the situation of the different years.
The following table gives the changes in land value per land use type.

Land use type Estimated values for Estimated values for scenarios
scenarios 1 and 3 2 and 4.
Value per increase Value per Value per increase Value per
m2 per year m2 2050 m2 per year m2 2050
2020 2020
Agricultural_fields 0.2 0.01 0.3 0.2 0.01 0.3
Animal_Farm 300.0 0 300.0 300.0 0 300.0
Bare 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Commercial 237.0 0.01 307.0 237.0 0.07 1056.4
Cultural_heritage 396.0 0.02 662.7 396.0 0.02 662.7
Farm 211.0 0 211.0 211.0 0 211.0
Forest_natural 11.0 0 11.0 11.0 0 11.0
Forest_Planted_protective 13.0 0 13.0 13.0 0 13.0
Grassland 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.1
Highway 250.0 0 250.0 250.0 0 250.0
Industry 300.0 0 300.0 300.0 0.07 1337.3
Open_slope_soil_removed 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Orchard 2.5 0.03 3.9 2.5 0.03 3.9
Parking_lot 150.0 0.03 222.7 150.0 0.03 222.7
Parkland 15.0 0 15.0 15.0 0 15.0
Quarry 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 0.1
Residential 300.0 0.03 521.7 300.0 0.1 2051.3
Shrubs 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Storage_Basin 50.0 0 50.0 50.0 0 50.0
Toll_area 350.0 0 350.0 350.0 0 350.0
Tourist_resort 266.0 0.04 595.9 266.0 0.06 981.8
Vineyard 12.0 0.06 38.0 12.0 0.06 38.0
Water_tank 30.0 0 30.0 30.0

Land value change can be analysed in different ways. You could do this for administrative units, for
land use types, or for the entire area. The easiest method is to do this for the whole area. You can
directly get the total land values from the attribute tables.

 Open the table LP_2020_A0_S0.
 Select Columns Aggregation, and select the column Value. Function: Sum, group by: Type ;
Output Table: LandValue_change, and Output Column: Value_2020_S0
Store the resulting columns also in the table Landuse_change, as: Value_2050_S1 and
Value_2050_S2.
 Make an analysis of the land value changes in an Excel sheet. Present the results in a table,
and in a graph in which you show the change in area per land use through time for the
different scenarios.

45

Analysing population changes
Also population densities and number of people are indicated per land parcel for each of the future
scenarios and future years. The population data were estimated based on the land use. The number
of people are considered maximum values, and not specific population scenarios (e.g. daytime night‐
time, summer / winter etc.) have been considered. The table below shows the data on the basis of
which the estimations were made.

Change in Change in
scenarios 1 and 3 scenarios 2 and 4
Land use type People increase People increase People
per m2 per year per m2 per year per m2
2020 2050 2050
Agricultural_fields 0.00001 0 0.00001 0 0.00001
Animal_Farm 0.00005 0 0.00005 0 0.00005
Bare 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000
Commercial 0.00500 0 0.00500 0 0.00500
Cultural_heritage 0.00100 0 0.00100 0 0.00100
Farm 0.00005 0 0.00005 0 0.00005
Forest_natural 0.00001 0 0.00001 0 0.00001
Forest_Planted_protective 0.00002 0 0.00002 0 0.00002
Grassland 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000
Highway 0.00500 0 0.00500 0 0.00500
Industry 0.00100 0 0.00100 0 0.00100
Open_slope_soil_removed 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000
Orchard 0.00003 0 0.00003 0 0.00003
Parking_lot 0.00100 0 0.00100 0 0.00100
Parkland 0.00020 0 0.00020 0 0.00020
Quarry 0.00005 0 0.00005 0 0.00005
Residential 0.00040 0.03 0.00070 0.1 0.00361
Shrubs 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000
Storage_Basin 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000
Toll_area 0.00500 0 0.00500 0 0.00500
Tourist_resort 0.00150 0 0.00150 0 0.00150
Vineyard 0.00020 0 0.00020 0 0.00020
Water_tank 0.00000 0 0.00000 0 0.00000

 Open the table LP_2020_A0_S0.
 Select Columns Aggregation, and select the column People. Function: Sum, group by: Type ;
Output Table: Population_change, and Output Column: Population_2020_S0
Store the resulting columns also in the table Landuse_change, as: Population_2050_S1 and
Population_2050_S2.
 Make an analysis of the population changes in an Excel sheet. Present the results in a table,
and in a graph in which you show the change in area per land use through time for the
different scenarios.

46

9.3 Analyse changes in risk for the different scenarios.
Similarly as the analysis which was done for the current risk and for the evaluation of the best risk
reduction alternative, we are doing this analysis in two steps:
‐ Loss analysis for each individual combination of hazard set (for a given date, hazard type and
return period) and elements‐at‐risk (the land parcel map for the given scenario and future
year).
‐ Risk analysis by combining the loss results for different hazards and return periods.

Loss analysis.
You can also analyse the changes in risk for the different scenarios. This will take more time, but you
can use the script Loss_calculation_LP for that.

 Adapt the script Loss_input_LP and add the
specific combinations of scenarios, and future
years .
 Make sure that the first part of the script is
not executed that contains the deletion of the
tables and creation of new ones, and the part
that calculates the losses for the current
situation (2020). You can also do that by
including two statements: begincomment
(before the part that should not be executed)
and endcomment (at the end of the part that
you don’t want to run).
 The best is to copy the text in a text editor and
adjust the parameters like the future year and
the scenario number.
 The example on the right side show the
situation for the scenario 1 and 2 for the
future year 2050.
 After generating the input script, you can run
it and one by one the actual loss estimation
script (Loss_calculation_LP) is calculated,
every time with another set of input data.
 Each time the results of the analysis are
written in three tables with the results:
Results_LP (for each landparcel the results
are stored), Result_LP_Admin_Units (results
aggregated per administrative units) and
Results_LP_Total (Aggregated values for the entire area).
 The calculation might take quite some time (probably at least one hour, since many
calculations have to be made)
 When the calculation is completed, check the results from the tables indicated above.

47

Risk analysis

The risk analysis which was done using a scrip Risk_calculation (see previous exercises) can now also
be done for the different scenarios. Remember that the script has the following variables:

%1 = Year
%2 = Alternative
%3 = Scenario
What is the new return period in 2050 for the Scenario 1
return period in 2020?
%4 = for 20 year return period?
%7= for 200 year return period?

The changes in return periods
New Return Periods 2050 Scenario 2
Old Scenario 1 and 2 Scenario 3 and 4
Return Limited climate Extreme climate
Period change change
20 17 11
50 45 25
100 90 55
200 180 110

Scenario 3
 Scenario 1 and 2 use the same return
periods as in dicated in the table above,
and both scenarios consider different land
use changes, and the losses for these
were calculated in the loss calculation.
 For scenarios 2 and 4 we use the more
extreme changes in return periods in
combination with the same land use Scenario 4
change conditions as in scenario 1 and 2.

The resulting input screen for the four scenarios
are shown to the right.

 Run the Risk_Calculation script for the four scenarios, and for the year 2050.
 Analyse the annualized risk for the combinations indicated and put these in an excel sheet.
 Present the results in a table, and in a graph.
Scenario: Possible Future Alternative: risk Years
trends reduction options 2020 2050 % change
S1 Business as usual A0 (no risk reduction)
S2 Risk informed planning A0 (no risk reduction)
S3 Worst case (Rapid growth + A0 (no risk reduction)
climate change)
S4 Climate resilience (informed A0 (no risk reduction)
planning under climate change)

48

10. Exercise 10: Which alternatives would behave
best under possible future scenarios.
This part integrates the previous components. It will allow you to analyse which risk reduction
alternative is the best change‐proof. The analysis has the following steps:
 Calculate the losses for the combination of the different alternatives and scenarios for the year
2050.
 Calculate annualized risk for each combination of risk reduction alternative and scenario in
2050;
 Calculate the risk reduction per year (benefit) for each combination alternative and scenario
in 2050 by subtracting the annualized risk with and without the risk reduction alternative;
 Calculate the incremental benefits for 2050 and interpolate these values with the ones
calculate for 2020 in exercise 6.
 Calculate Net Present Values and Internal Rate of Return for the three risk reduction
alternatives under the four by taking into account their behaviour under different possible
future scenarios;
 Determine the most “change proof” risk reduction alternative;

10.1 Loss calculation
The table below shows all combinations for the scenarios S1‐S4 , the no risk reduction situation, and
the three risk reduction alternatives, for 2050.
Scenario: Possible Future Alternative: risk Now Future years

trends reduction options 2020 2050
S0 (Without including any A0 (no risk reduction) 2020_A0_S0 No future trends are taking into

future trends) account, and all hazards, elements at
A1 Engineering 2020_A0_S0
risk and vulnerabilities are considered
A2 Ecological 2020_A0_S0 constant in future.
A3 Relocation 2020_A0_S0
S1 Business as usual A0 (no risk reduction) Does not exist: use 2050_A0_S1
A1 Engineering existing situation 2050_A1_S1
A2 Ecological 2050_A2_S1
S2 Risk informed A0 (no risk reduction) Does not exist: use 2050_A0_S2
planning A1 Engineering existing situation 2050_A1_S2
A2 Ecological 2050_A2_S2
S3 Worst case (Rapid A0 (no risk reduction) Does not exist: use 2050_A0_S3 (S3 landuse = S1)
growth + climate A1 Engineering existing situation 2050_A1_S3 (S3 landuse = S1)
change)
A2 Ecological 2050_A2_S3 (S3 landuse = S1)
A3 Relocation 2050_A3_S3 (S3 landuse = S1)
S4 Climate resilience A0 (no risk reduction) Does not exist: use 2050_A0_S4 (S4 landuse = S2)
(informed planning under A1 Engineering existing situation 2050_A1_S4 (S4 landuse = S2)
climate change)
A2 Ecological 2050_A2_S4 (S4 landuse = S2)
A3 Relocation 2050_A3_S4 (S4 landuse = S2)
49

The cells in the table above all have a specific combination of elements‐at‐risk and hazard maps. For
instance for the first two scenarios the following maps are needed. Red (e.g. LP_2050_A0_S1) =
elements‐at‐risk map. Green (e.g. FL_DE_020_A1) = hazard maps

Scenario Alternative 2050
A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2050_A0_S1
Landslides: LS_SP_20_A0, LS_SP_50_A0, LS_SP_100_A0, , LS_SP_200_A0
Floods: FL_DE_20_A0, FL_DE_50_A0, FL_DE_100_A0, FL_DE_200_A0
Debrisflow: DF_IP_20_A0, DF_IP_50_A0, DF_IP_100_A0, DF_IP_200_A0
A1 Engineering LP_2030_A1_S1
Landslides: LS_SP_20_A1, LS_SP_50_A1, LS_SP_100_A1, LS_SP_200_A1
(Flood and debris flow: 4 return Floods: FL_DE_20_A1, FL_DE_50_A1, FL_DE_100_A1, FL_DE_200_A1
periods) Debrisflow: DF_IP_20_A1, DF_IP_50_A1, DF_IP_100_A1, DF_IP_200_A1
A2 Ecological LP_2030_A2_S1
S1 Business as usual
A3 Relocation LP_2030_A3_S1
(no change in hazard intensity so Landslides: LS_SP_20_A3, LS_SP_50_A3, LS_SP_100_A3, LS_SP_200_A3
we use the hazard maps for Floods: FL_DE_20_A3, FL_DE_50_A3, FL_DE_100_A3, FL_DE_200_A3
existing situation) Debrisflow: DF_IP_20_A3, DF_IP_50_A3, DF_IP_100_A3, DF_IP_200_A3
A0 (no risk reduction) LP_2030_A0_S2
Floods: FL_DE_20_A0, FL_DE_50_A0, FL_DE_100_A0, FL_DE_200_A0
Debrisflow: DF_IP_20_A0, DF_IP_50_A0, DF_IP_100_A0, DF_IP_200_A0
A1 Engineering LP_2030_A1_S2
Landslides: LS_SP_20_A1, LS_SP_50_A1, LS_SP_100_A1, LS_SP_200_A1
S2 Risk informed planning
A2 Ecological LP_2030_A2_S2
A3 Relocation LP_2030_A3_S2
(no change in hazard intensity so Landslides: LS_SP_20_A3, LS_SP_50_A3, LS_SP_100_A3, LS_SP_200_A3
we use the hazard maps for Floods: FL_DE_20_A3, FL_DE_50_A3, FL_DE_100_A3, FL_DE_200_A3
existing situation) Debrisflow: DF_IP_20_A3, DF_IP_50_A3, DF_IP_100_A3, DF_IP_200_A3

There is no need to make the calculation for the scenarios 3 and 4, because the losses of scenario 3
are the same as for scenario 1 , and the same for scenario 4 and 2. The difference will come only in
the risk calculation phase, where the different frequency changes of the hazard return periods will be
considered.

50

Adapt the script Loss_input_LP and add the specific combinations
of scenarios, alternatives and future years that you want to analyse.
 The example on the right shows how the script should be
made for scenario 1.
 It may not be required to calculate the existing situation as
you did this in the previous exercise. That is why it is good
to include the begincomment and endcomment to skip this
part.
 The table on the next page shows all the loss combinations
that should be calculated for scenario 1 in order to be able
to calculate the multi‐hazard risk. For scenario 2 this would
look similarly.
 No need to run loss calculation for scenario 3 and 4, and 3
is the same as 1 and 4 is the same as scenario 2.
 The Loss_input_LP script might need many lines. Use the
Edit/Replace option to quickly change.
 Once the Loss_input_LP script is completed, run it. It will
take a considerable amount of time, so a coffee/lunch
break might be useful
 After completion it might be good to copy the result file:
Result_LP to another directory as a back‐up.

The results will look like the ones in the table below:
Step Alternative: risk reduction Future years: 2050

options
Flood losses Debris flow losses Landslide losses
FL_20_2050_A0_S1_PH DF_20_2050_A0_S1_PH LS_20_2050_A0_S1_PH
S1 Business as usual A0 (no risk reduction) FL_50_2050_A0_S1_PH DF_50_2050_A0_S1_PH LS_50_2050_A0_S1_PH

A1 Engineering FL_50_2050_A1_S1_PH DF_50_2050_A1_S1_PH LS_50_2050_A1_S1_PH
FL_200_2050_A1_S1_PH DF_200_2050_A1_S1_PH
A2 Ecological FL_50_2050_A2_S1_PH DF_50_2050_A2_S1_PH LS_50_2050_A2_S1_PH
FL_200_2050_A2_S1_PH DF_200_2050_A2_S1_PH
A3 Relocation FL_50_2050_A3_S1_PH DF_50_2050_A3_S1_PH LS_50_2050_A3_S1_PH
S2 Risk informed A0 (no risk reduction) Not filled in here because of the limited space but they would be looking like the ones filled in for

scenario 1.
planning A1 Engineering
A2 Ecological
A3 Relocation
S3 Worst case A0 (no risk reduction) Losses same as S1 A0 Losses same as S1 A0 Losses same as S1 A0
(Rapid growth + A1 Engineering Losses same as S1 A1 Losses same as S1 A1 Losses same as S1 A1
climate change) A2 Ecological Losses same as S1 A2 Losses same as S1 A2 Losses same as S1 A2
A3 Relocation Losses same as S1 A3 Losses same as S1 A3 Losses same as S1 A3
S4 Climate resilience A0 (no risk reduction) Losses same as S2 A0 Losses same as S2 A0 Losses same as S2 A0
(informed planning A1 Engineering Losses same as S2 A1 Losses same as S2 A1 Losses same as S2 A1
under climate A2 Ecological Losses same as S2 A2 Losses same as S2 A2 Losses same as S2 A2
change) A3 Relocation Losses same as S2 A3 Losses same as S2 A3 Losses same as S2 A3
51

10.2 Risk calculation
Also the risk assessment script (Risk_calculation) has to be run for many combinations, basically for
each combination of scenario, future year and alternative. Remember that the script
Risk_calculation requires the following variables:
%1 = Year
%2 = Alternative
%3 = Scenario
What is the new return period in 2050 for the return period in
2020?
%7= for 200 year return period?

The changes in return periods
New Return Periods 2050
Old Scenario 1 and 2 Scenario 3 and 4
Return Limited climate Extreme climate
Period change change
20 17 11
50 45 25
100 90 55
200 180 110

 Adapt the script Risk_input and add the specific combinations of scenarios, alternatives and
future year 2050 that you want to analyse. `The example to the upper right shows the
possible combinations for scenarios 1 and 2.
 Copy the results into an Excel table , so that for each
combination you have an Average Annual Risk value.

When we run the analysis for the scenarios 3 and 4 we must
first make a copy of the result table, because the calculation
will replace the values for scenario 1 and 2.

 Copy the resulting file Risk_Results to another
directory . RighClick on the table Risk_Results and
select from the main menu: Edit, Copy . Select New
Directory and copy it to another directory.
 Adapt the script Risk_input again and add the specific
combinations of scenarios, alternatives and future
years that you want to analyse. The example to the
right shows the possible combinations for scenarios 3
and 4.
 Copy the results into an Excel table , so that for each
combination you have an Average Annual Risk value.
 Calculate the Risk Reduction for the specific combinations of scenarios and alternatives in
2050 for the scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4. This is done by subtracting the risk after implementation
of the alternative in 2050 for a given scenario from the risk in 2050 for the same scenario
without the implementation of the alternative.
52

Scenario Alternative Risk without Risk after Risk reduction
S1: Business as A1 Engineering AR_2050_A0_S1 AR_2050_A1_S1 RR_2050_A1_S1
usual A2 Ecological AR_2050_A0_S1 AR_2050_A2_S1 RR_2050_A2_S1
A3 Relocation AR_2050_A0_S1 AR_2050_A3_S1 RR_2050_A3_S1
S2 Risk informed A1 Engineering AR_2050_A0_S2 AR_2050_A1_S2 RR_2050_A1_S2
planning A2 Ecological AR_2050_A0_S2 AR_2050_A2_S2 RR_2050_A2_S2
S3: Worst case A1 Engineering AR_2050_A0_S3 AR_2050_A1_S3 RR_2050_A1_S3
A2 Ecological AR_2050_A0_S3 AR_2050_A2_S3 RR_2050_A2_S3
S4: Climate change A1 Engineering AR_2050_A0_S4 AR_2050_A1_S4 RR_2050_A1_S4
adaptation A2 Ecological AR_2050_A0_S4 AR_2050_A2_S4 RR_2050_A2_S4
10.3 Cost‐benefit analysis
Once the Risk Reduction in 2050 (benefits) have been calculated, the cost‐benefit can be calculated. If
you compare the method explained in sections 7.1 and 7.2 , the cost calculation stays the same, but
the values for risk reduction (the benefits) are now different for 2050 (the ones indicated in colour
below).

 Make four copies of the cost benefit table used in chapter 7: one for each scenario.
 Enter the risk reduction values for the year 2050 in the table of the Cost‐Benefit analysis for
each scenario. An example is given below for scenario 1.

Cost‐benefit table for scenario1
solutions

Incremental benefit
Incremental benefit
Incremental benefit
`Risk Reduction
`Risk Reduction
`Risk Reduction
Total costs
Total costs
Total costs
2020 TC RR_2020_A1_S1 TC RR_2020_A2_S1 TC RR_2020_A3_S1

2021
2022
2023
2024
…
2050 RR_2050_A1_S1 RR_2050_A2_S1 RR_2050_A3_S1
…

 Interpolate the risk reduction values for the period between 2020 and 2050 based on the
values calculated in these two years.
 Also extend the range with the same level of increase up to 2070.
 Calculate the Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return for the Scenarios
 Analyse which alternative would have positive NPV’s under which future scenarios.
 Discuss your results.

53

11. Final Project
Thus far the exercise were written out, and you could follow the procedure to obtain the results. In
this last part of the course you will work out a problem for which there is no written out solution.
In this project it is important to be creative and critical. Creative in terms of the way you are going to
present your results, as there are many different combinations for which risk is calculated, it requires
some good thinking how you can best visualize the results. Also we appreciate if you critically analyze
the input data and the results, and whenever possible also show how they could be modified, and what
the effect would be.

You need to define the following issues:
‐ Select a specialization topic. This refers to a specific topic that you will investigate in more
detail.
‐ Submit a report (in Word) of 10 pages, excluding cover, references, and appendix and an Excel
file (in which you make different worksheets for the components of the project)
‐ Submit the report on the approved date to : c.j.vanwesten@utwente.nl

List of specialization topics
A topic can be selected by one participant only. Registration on first‐come‐first‐serve basis.
Topic Description
1 Analyze the influence of uncertainty hazard intensity and frequency. Assume an
Hazard uncertainty of 20 percent in the intensities, and 30 percent in the frequency of
uncertainty the hazards. Calculate what will be the variation in Average Annual Loss.
2 Analyze the influence of uncertainty in the quantification of the elements‐at‐
Elements‐at‐ risk. Evaluate the method with which the value estimation of the land parcels
risk was done, and include ranges of values, instead of single values. Calculate what
uncertainty the effect of these will have on the resulting risk.
3 Analyze the influence of uncertainty in the vulnerability of the elements‐at‐risk.
Vulnerability Evaluate the method with which the vulnerability estimation of the land parcels
uncertainty was done, and include ranges of values, instead of single values. Calculate what
the effect of these will have on the resulting risk.
4 Compare the economic risk calculated using building footprints and land parcels
Buildings for the present situation. For building footprint calculation there is a separate
versus land script for the loss calculation, and also different vulnerability curves. Also
parcels evaluate how the land values of the land parcels and buildings are related.
5 Analyze the change in population risk between a daytime and nighttime
Daytime‐ scenario. Evaluate for each of the land use classes, what would be the
nighttime population in daytime, and in nighttime. Run the loss and risk analysis and
compare these results.
6 Analyze a situation in which the island would be increasingly affected by major
Wildfire wildfire, which may destroy the forest in the steep slopes, and also the
protective forest in the case of alternative 2. Include the wildfire as an
additional hazard. Use spatial probability of being destroyed by wildfires for
those landuse types that have forests. Also consider land parcels next to forest.
The forest might also lead to change in frequency of debris flows.
Analyze how the economic risk would change if we include wildfires.
54

7 Include the tsunami risk in the calculation of the current risk and the risk
Tsunami reduction alternatives. There are intensity maps and vulnerability curves for
tsunami risk
8 Improve the relocation alternative in such as way that it may become an option
Relocation with a positive cost‐benefit results. Adjust the areas which should be relocated,
alternative and adjust the cost, time period , etc. Justify the results.
revisited.
9 Compare cost‐benefit with cost‐effectiveness between the three alternatives.
Cost‐ Calculate how the population risk would decrease for the three alternatives.
effectiveness. And compare the alternative both for cost‐benefit and cost‐effectiveness. What
if you would value loss of life and include it in the cost‐benefit analysis?
10 Develop new risk reduction alternatives for tsunami risk reduction. Include also
Tsunami an engineering approach (Seawall), ecological approach (mangrove) and
mitigation relocation alternative.
11 Include a new alternative that includes Early Warning Systems for floods, debris
Early Warning flows, landslides and tsunami . Describe what the main characteristics would be
Systems of these systems, the lead time and the effectiveness. Analyze how the
population risk would change . Compare with the other alternatives.
12 Use the building footprints to calculate the current risk and the risk under the
Compare various alternatives. Calculate the risk reduction and do the cost‐benefit
alternatives analysis. Compare the results with the analysis you did for land parcels.
using
buildings
13 Calculate Cost‐Benefit per administrative unit. Make the calculation of multi‐
Risk per hazard risk, for the present situation and the three alternatives per
admin unit administrative unit instead of for the entire area. How do the cost‐benefit
results differ per administrative unit?
14 Calculate what would be the minimum insurance premium per building in order
Insurance to be able to cover the costs for disasters. Suppose all owners of buildings in
the area would participate and the insurance would be on a non‐profit basis.
Calculate also difference in premium depending on the size of the building.
15 Calculate which of the three risk reduction alternatives is most change proof.
Change‐proof Analyze how the three risk reduction measures would reduce the risk in 2050,
alternatives and use this data in the cost‐benefit analysis.

16 Analyze the changes in land use types, land value, and population for the four
Analyze scenarios.
changes
17 Analyze how the multi‐hazard risk of the various scenarios changes if we
Tsunami risk include tsunami risk as well. Compare the multi‐hazard risk for four scenarios
scenarios with the present situation and with or without the inclusion of tsunami risk.
There are intensity maps and vulnerability curves for tsunami risk
18 Analyze a scenario in which the island receives a major boost in tourism,
Tourism focusing on the more expensive segement. Adjust the land use of the land
scenario parcels in 2050, accommodating for more tourist facilities. Calculate the change
in economic and population risk under a climate change scenario.
19 Develop the most negative scenario of climate change in which the hydro‐
Extreme meteorological hazards occur much more frequently. See the table
climate Return period now Return period 2050
change 20 3
50 9
55

100 25
200 57
20 Analyze a scenario in which the island would experience a massive inflow of
Refugees refugees (10.000). Where would be the best site for the refugee camp?
Calculate how the population risk would change .

56

References
 Cascini, L., Ferlisi, S., Sorbino,G. and Cuomo, S. (2011). Report of the activities carried out
by the research group of Unisa. Deliverable D2.11. QRA case studies at selected
“hotspots”. SafeLand. Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global
change, and risk management strategies.
https://www.ngi.no/eng/Projects/SafeLand/#Reports‐and‐publications
 Scolobig, A., J. Bayer, L. Cascini, Settimio Ferlisi (2011) Design and testing: a risk
communication strategy and a deliberative process for choosing a set of mitigation and
prevention measures. Deliverable D5.7. SafeLand. Living with landslide risk in Europe:
Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies
 Narasimhan , H. , Faber , M. (2011) Quantitative risk‐cost‐benefit analysis of selected
mitigation options for two case studies. Deliverable D5.3.. SafeLand. Living with landslide
risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies
 van Westen, C. J., & Greiving, S. (2017). Multi‐hazard risk assessment and decision making. In N. R.
Dalezios (Ed.), Environmental hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management (pp.
31‐94). IWA Publishing. https://doi.org/10.2166/9781780407135_0031

57

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ANALYSING MULTI-HAZARD RISK FOR DECISION MAKING IN DISASTER RISK

Method · February 2021

C.J. Van Westen

Seismic amplification modelling and resulting effects View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Map Hazard Return Period Intensity Spatial

Name Land use change Climate change

Scenario: Possible Alternative: risk Now Future years

S0 (Without including any A0 (no risk reduction) 2020_A0_S0 A

Item Alternative 1: Alternative 2: Alternative 3:

Alternative 1:  Storage basins The construction In the 4th year the full From year 4, it will be

For each of these items you need to make an estimation. The costs estimation can be done in the

Current situation Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

NPV at 5 % NPV at 10 % NPV at 20 % interest IRR

Name Land use change Climate change

This scenario is a land use change scenario with a limited effect of climate change. The changes in

Scenario: Possible Future Alternative: risk Now Future years

S0 (Without including any A0 (no risk reduction) 2020_A0_S0 No future trends are taking into

Step Alternative: risk reduction Future years: 2050

FL_20_2050_A1_S1_PH DF_20_2050_A1_S1_PH LS_20_2050_A1_S1_PH

S2 Risk informed A0 (no risk reduction) Not filled in here because of the limited space but they would be looking like the ones filled in for

(Rapid growth + A1 Engineering Losses same as S1 A1 Losses same as S1 A1 Losses same as S1 A1

climate change) A2 Ecological Losses same as S1 A2 Losses same as S1 A2 Losses same as S1 A2

A3 Relocation Losses same as S1 A3 Losses same as S1 A3 Losses same as S1 A3

S4 Climate resilience A0 (no risk reduction) Losses same as S2 A0 Losses same as S2 A0 Losses same as S2 A0

(informed planning A1 Engineering Losses same as S2 A1 Losses same as S2 A1 Losses same as S2 A1

under climate A2 Ecological Losses same as S2 A2 Losses same as S2 A2 Losses same as S2 A2

change) A3 Relocation Losses same as S2 A3 Losses same as S2 A3 Losses same as S2 A3

2020 TC RR_2020_A1_S1 TC RR_2020_A2_S1 TC RR_2020_A3_S1

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