Travel Demand Forecasting

1st Test
Instruction: Test Marks: 40
1. Attempt all questions
2. Give answer in True or False for each question according to the relevant scenarios and provide
reasoning/explanation of your answer as brief as possible.

Questions

Scenario 1: An exercise has been done to develop a linear regression model for the purpose of
forecasting trip production of certain residential area. A transport modeler used a data set that contain
trip information along with information regarding socio-economic variables such as household income,
car ownership, household size, employed and unemployed persons and no. of dependents (children) in
the household. The modeler followed a stepwise approach to build a regression model.

1. In order to incorporate non-linear effect found for household income variable with the trip, the
modeler treated this variable as a dummy variable after observing the trend of categories with
trips as linear.
2. In selection of an appropriate model along with various statistical outputs and checks, the
modeler preferred model in which intercept value is also present.
3. To verify the existence of multi-collinearty among the different variables, the modeler
performed ANOVA analysis.
4. The coefficients of the explanatory variables in the model depict marginal effect of particular
variable onto the predicted variable.
5. In giving final recommendations for the model, the modeler performed a validation exercise by
randomly selecting group of data and compared the model predictions.
6. To improve the model, the modeler thinks that more information regarding household attribute
such as house location in a street (corner/ middle) is also important.

Scenario 2: Due to the non-availability of the data set for different combination of classes for
development of cross-classification model, the modeler chooses multiple classification analysis (MCA)
technique. The developed model was based on three classes of income and four classes of household
size.
7. The total number of households required to complete data set for cross classification model is
100.
8. The major advantage of using MCA is that it may provide trip rate for empty cells when
compared with cross-classification model.
9. The modeler feels that the reliability of the trip rate could be the major issue in these models,
and to cross-check it he has found standard deviation of the trip rate as well.
10. The modeler decision to go for the development of MCA model is due to poor relationship
results between trips vs household size and trips vs income.
Scenario 3: An owner of a shopping plaza of around 10 floors contacted with a transport consultants for
estimation of car parking spaces. Shopping plaza is located in the posh area of the city and the building
itself is designed to contain luxurious shops for branded outlets such as Marks & Spencer, Next ,Gap and
Debenhams etc.
11. One of the assumption modeler assumed while estimation of car parking space is the uniform
distribution of demand from all income classes prevailing in the city obtained from some
previous study.
12. For estimation of car parking spaces, the modeler assumed (by presenting a reasonable
justification) certain fraction of trip attraction to that zone for shopping purpose trips which is
estimated from already developed trip generation model of the entire city.
13. In order to have exact idea about the demand pattern, the transport modeler suggested that it
is necessary to conduct household based information survey.
14. The traffic engineer in the same consultancy suggested that it is vital to determine the parking
space turn over for estimation of utilization of parking space in a specific period. This may help
in adjusting the overall parking space requirement.
15. A junior Traffic engineer insisted that for estimation of space requirement and analysis of
demand pattern required OD data and for this purpose OD study should be conducted.

Scenario 4: An OD matrix is available from the previous study that has been conducted in year 2000, in
this study administrative boundaries were used to define traffic analysis zones. A recent study in 2010
gives the classification of an entire area based on some combination of socio-economic factors. Now the
requirement is to develop an OD matrix based on this new classification of the area.
16. A group of professional suggested that we can use an older trip matrix and make some
simplified treatment of it for representing the same based on new classification and for the year
2010.
17. An expert has an opinion that we may obtain a smaller OD matrix by merging some close
classes to one another and then mapping one-to-one spatial correspondence between zones
based on administrative boundaries and new classification.
18. An expert mentioned that growth factor models could be utilized to develop OD matrix for year
2010 using the same previous zones.
19. One opinion was to calibrate gravity model for the base year using a previous zones, and once
the estimation has been done the same calibrated parameters could be used to develop OD
matrix based on new classification.
20. Another person suggested that the OD matrix available for the year 2000 is quite old, a fresh OD
study need to be conducted for some sampled population for development of OD matrix based
on this new classification.

Scenario 5: An OD matrix is available for a smaller town that have in total 5 zones for the year 2005. It
has been noted that sum of origins and destinations trips was not matching in that matrix. There was
some appreciable difference noted between the two quantities (i.e. more than 200 trips).

21. A student in the travel demand forecasting course suggested that he will assume the trip
production column as true and based on that he will adjust some of the distributed trips in a
manner that destination row provide the sum equivalent to production column total.
22. Another student in the same course thinks that it is necessary to first establish the balancing of
total productions and attractions before going into the next stage where trip distribution matrix
is estimated.
 23. Another student in the same course suggested it can be adjusted through assumption of Friction
factors models incorporated within gravity Model estimation.
24. An opinion raise by the student that the problem can be resolved if Fratar model is used for
future year forecasting.

Some general Questions:

25. For an urban study area the most usual friction factor model is based on exponential model.
26. The problem with the uniform growth factor model is that it does not account for socio-
economic relationship between interchange zones.
27. The drawback of cross-classification model is that if stratifying variables increased sample size
requirement will increase enormously.
28. The transport modeler indicated to its junior that for application of gravity model you need to
have a base matrix with you.
29. Fratar model and average growth factor model can provide similar results provided that they
may converge properly.
30. For convergence of Average growth factor model, the final growth factor after several iterations
should be in a range of 0.5-0.8.
31. A trip production model developed for a US city, the same can be employed to a city in Pakistan
for forecasting purpose.
32. F-statistics come out after performing regression analysis for two different types of model is
12.78 and 56.9 respectively. A student indicated the first model is more appropriate.
33. The factor accounted for socio-economic relations between the two zones in gravity model need
to be incorporated only when there are substantial evidences are present.
34. Trip based modeling approach is not based on the idea of derived demand.
35. The model for trip generations and distribution would provide appropriate results when it is
properly classified into different categories.
36. Treatment of intrazonal trips would add the accuracy of the modeling approach.
37. The calibration of the Fratar Model meant that you are estimating the growth factors.
38. Calibration and validation of the models are the two terms that can be used instead of each
other.
39. In cross-classification models sometimes open-ended classes are used which facilitate the small
data requirements.
40. R-square value in the regression analysis shows the significance of specific variables
incorporated in the model.