UNVEILING THE DYNAMICS: ASSESSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF

STRENGTHENING INDO-US BILATERAL TRADE, ECONOMIC BONDS AND

STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

BY

Adrija Mishra
Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi

A Research Project submitted in

partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Internship at
NITI AAYOG

Under the guidance of: Sanjeet Singh, IRS, Senior Advisor,

National Institute for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog,
Government of India

Approved by: Dr. Pravin Kumar,

Specialist, National Institute for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog,
Government of India
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The completion of this research project has been made possible through the collective efforts,
guidance and support of numerous individuals, to whom I extend my heartfelt gratitude.

Foremost, I express my sincere appreciation to my esteemed mentors, Dr. Pravin Kumar,

Specialist at NITI Aayog, and Sanjeet Singh, IRS, Senior Advisor. Their unwavering mentorship
and insightful feedback has been instrumental in shaping the trajectory of this study. Their
expertise and dedication have been a constant source of inspiration.

Their immense knowledge, deep insights and constructive feedback have played a pivotal role in
the research of this study. Their constant motivation and insightful critiques have inspired me to
pursue excellence and navigate challenges at every juncture of the research process.

I am profoundly thankful to Mr. Sanjeet Singh and Dr. Pravin Kumar for their generous efforts to
support me by providing their time, wisdom and resources. Their guidance has enabled me to
enrich my comprehension of the subject matter.

Additionally, my gratitude extends to the entire team at NITI Aayog for providing me with this
opportunity, along with the necessary resources, facilities and support that assisted me to carry
out this research. The conductive academic environment has been integral to my growth as an
individual.

Furthermore, I am grateful to my family and friends for their encouragement and understanding
during the phases of this research journey. Their constant support has been a driving force
behind my determination.

Lastly, I would like to express my gratitude to the countless scholars, researchers, and authors
whose previous work laid the foundation upon which this study was built.

This research project stands as a testament to the collaborative spirit of all the aforementioned
individuals. Thank You.

With appreciation,
Adrija Mishra
 INTRODUCTION

In an increasingly interconnected and interdependent global landscape, international relations

are defined by multifaceted partnerships that extend beyond traditional diplomatic boundaries.
One such dynamic partnership that has garnered significant attention is the evolving
relationship between India and the United States. The confluence of economic interests, shared
democratic values, and geopolitical imperatives has propelled the Indo-US bilateral relationship
into a pivotal position on the world stage. This research paper delves into the profound impact
that the strengthening of Indo-US bilateral trade, economic ties, and strategic partnerships has
had on the respective nations, as well as its implications for global economic and political
dynamics.

The 21st century has witnessed a remarkable transformation in the Indo-US relationship,
evolving from the distant diplomatic exchanges of the past into a robust strategic partnership
encompassing a wide spectrum of domains. At the forefront of this transformation is the
expansion of bilateral trade and economic cooperation, driven by the recognition of the
enormous potential that lies within the economies of both nations. The United States and India,
as two of the world's largest economies, have strived to harness their complementary strengths
to foster economic growth, innovation, and job creation. This paper delves into the multifaceted
dimensions of this economic collaboration, examining trade patterns, investment flows,
technology transfers, and sectoral synergies that have emerged as a result of the deepening
partnership.

Beyond economic cooperation, the Indo-US relationship has grown to encompass strategic and
security dimensions of global significance. Both nations share a commitment to upholding
democratic principles, ensuring regional stability, and addressing common security challenges.
Collaborative endeavours in areas such as counterterrorism, defence technology, and maritime
security underscore the growing convergence of their strategic interests. This research paper
critically analyses the strategic implications of this partnership, evaluating how the alignment of
Indo-US interests has contributed to shaping regional security dynamics and fostering stability in
an increasingly uncertain world.

As the world continues to grapple with the ongoing ramifications of global challenges such as
climate change, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and the post-pandemic recovery, the role of
strong bilateral relationships cannot be underestimated. The Indo-US partnership serves as an
example of how nations with distinct cultural backgrounds and historical trajectories can forge
symbiotic ties that propel mutual prosperity and address common challenges. By investigating
the multidimensional impact of strengthening Indo-US economic and strategic ties, this paper
seeks to provide valuable insights into the complex interplay between diplomacy, economics,
and geopolitics in an interconnected world.

In the subsequent sections of this research paper, we will delve into the historical context of the
Indo-US relationship, analyse the key drivers behind the deepening economic engagement,
scrutinise the strategic imperatives that have guided the partnership, and ultimately offer a
comprehensive assessment of the broader implications of this evolving relationship on the
global stage. Through rigorous analysis and insightful synthesis, this paper aims to contribute to
a deeper understanding of the transformative power that collaborative and strategically
nurtured partnerships can wield in the realm of international relations.

BACKGROUND

India has a diverse and significant trading profile, with commercial relations involving various
nations across the globe. Trade dynamics of a country are influenced by a variety of factors such
as global events, political situations and economic developments. Along with chemicals, textiles,
medicines, automobile parts, IT services, and agricultural items like rice and spices, India is also
renowned for exporting a wide variety of services. India's exports have been significantly
boosted by its services sector, particularly its IT and software industries. India has a substantial
presence in the global market for generic pharmaceuticals as well. India imports a wide range of
goods, including fertilisers, chemicals, machinery, electronics, precious metals, and crude oil.
Because of India's substantial energy requirements, crude oil is one of the primary commodities
imported. India's trade has been on a growth trajectory, with the nation trying to increase its
export capacity in a number of areas and deepen its trading relationships with emerging
markets.

The United States is one of the world’s largest trading nations. The US is a major exporter of
goods and services. Since it is the global leader in the services sector, particularly financial
services, entertainment, technology; hence service exports are a major contributor to the US
economy. The US, being involved in multiple trade agreements and economic relations with
various countries, has a notable impact on the global markets and international trade patterns.
TABLE 1- Shows the past data for comparison of trade scenario in USA and India
Past Data for comparison between India and USA 2021

Exports from USA to India $39.1 B

Exports from India to USA $71.2 B
Top product from India to USA Diamonds ($10.2 B)
Top product from USA to INDIA Crude Petroleum ($9.68 B)
Economic Complexity (USA) 1.46 (RNK 10/131)
Economic Complexity (India) 0.61 (RNK 41/131)
USA GDP $23 T (RNK 1/182)
India GDP $3.17 T (RNK 6/182)
USA GDP Growth (2011-2021) 47.4 % (RNK 56/182)
India GDP Growth (2011-2021) 74.1% (RNK 26/182)
USA GDP per capita $69,288 (RNK 7/182)
India GDP per capita $2,277 (RNK 137/182)
USA GDP per capita growth 38.4% (RNK 44/182)
India GDP per capita growth 56.2% (RNK 20/182)
TABLE 1- Source: https://oec.world/

US-INDIA TRADE RELATIONS

India and the US have a complex and crucial trade relationship, which has been steadily
expanding over the years. The US has emerged as India’s largest trading partner, exceeding
China. The US-India bilateral trade stood at a record US$ 119.42 Billion, in 2021-22. Also, US
being one of the few countries with which India had a trade surplus in 2021-22. A
comprehensive trade agreement that would further liberalise trade and investment flows
between the two nations has garnered interest from both India and the United States. With
cumulative FDI inflows of US$56,753 million from April 2000 to September 2022, the USA ranks
third among foreign investors in India. Along with commerce, India and the US have also worked
to strengthen their strategic alliances and partnerships in fields like innovation, energy,
technology, and defence.
MAJOR EXPORTED GOODS FROM INDIA TO THE USA: In FY21, India exported 7,546 distinct
commodities to the USA. In FY21, the top exports from India to the United States were imitation
jewellery, coins, and precious stones and metals (totaling US$14,667.49 million); these were
followed by pharmaceuticals (US$6,472.25 million); and nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery,
and mechanical appliances (totaling US$5,798.52 million). Agricultural products, leather items,
frozen meat, textiles are other commonly exported products from India to the US.

FIGURE 1- Shows the top exports from India to the USA (in US $ Millions)

FIGURE 1- Source: ibef.org

MAJOR IMPORTED GOODS FROM INDIA TO THE USA: In FY21, India imported 6229 distinct
commodities to the USA. Mineral fuels, mineral oils & products, bituminous substances, and
mineral waxes account for the majority of India's imports from the United States ($4,716.64
million), followed by pearls, precious or semi-precious stones/metals and articles thereof,
imitation jewellery, and coins ($6,839.18 million).

Between 2000 and 2018, the total value of products and services traded bilaterally between the
US and India expanded at a CAGR of 11.5%, from US$ 20 billion to US$ 142 billion. India is
viewed as a critical market by US companies, as is US by the Indian companies. At the end of
2020, over 70,000 American jobs were supported by India's $12.7 billion in investment in the
US. The annual economic impact of around 200,000 Indian students studying in the United
States is $7.7 billion. Also, the US remains one of the most popular destinations for Indian
students to study abroad. According to the annual Open Doors report published in November
2022, about 21% of all international students studying in the United States come from India. In
India, 82,000 student visas were given in 2022, the majority of which were for graduate
(Masters) programmes.

FIGURE 2- Shows the top imports from India to the USA (in US $ Millions)

FIGURE 2- Source: ibef.org

A BRIEF HISTORY OF US-RELATIONS WITH INDIA

Relations between India and the United States go a long way. From 2000 onwards, US
investments in India had begun to rise. But it was when Manmohan Singh became prime
minister, the India-US relationship started to develop and deepen further. India had a vast
economy that was rapidly expanding by 2004. In 2007, it passed the trillion-dollar threshold,
and by 2014, it had reached the $2 trillion level. Manmohan Singh and US President George
Bush negotiated and delivered a strategic milestone in the form of the US-India: Civil Nuclear
Cooperation, a deal that fueled the economic relationship and strengthened the ties between
the two democracies.

Manmohan Singh made eight trips to the US throughout his two stints as prime minister. Two of
these (November 2008 and September 2009) were G20 meetings as the grouping got a boost
due to the North Atlantic Financial Crisis.
The task of strengthening the Indian-American relationship was taken up by Prime Minister
Narendra Modi. Modi inherited an economy worth US$2 trillion and strategic goodwill in the
form of nuclear cooperation, both of which he has used to cement the bond between the two
countries while also bringing in some of his own ideas.
 TABLE 2: USA-INDIA EXPORT IMPORT DATA
The export-import relations between India and the United States play a crucial role in shaping
both countries' economies and their global engagement.

S. No. /YEAR 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

1 EXPORT 52,406.27 53,088.77 51,623.14 76,167.01 78,542.74

2 %Growth 1.3 2.76 47.54 3.12

3 India's Total Export 3,30,078.09 3,13,361.04 2,91,808.48 4,22,004.40 4,50,958.43

4 %Growth 5.06 -6.88 44.62 6.86

5 %Share 15.88 16.94 17.69 18.05 17.42

6 IMPORT 35,549.48 35,819.87 28,888.10 43,314.07 50,240.10

7 %Growth 0.76 19.35 49.94 15.99

8 India's Total Import 5,14,078.42 4,74,709.28 3,94,435.88 6,13,052.05 7,14,042.45

9 %Growth 7.66 16.91 55.43 16.47

10 %Share 6.92 7.55 7.32 7.07 7.04

11 TOTAL TRADE 87,955.76 88,908.65 80,511.24 1,19,481.08 1,28,782.83
12 %Growth 1.08 9.44 48.4 7.79

13 India's Total Trade 8,44,156.51 7,88,070.32 6,86,244.36 10,35,056.45 11,65,000.88

14 %Growth 6.64 12.92 50.83 12.55

15 %Share 10.42 11.28 11.73 11.54 11.05

16 TRADE BALANCE 16,856.79 17,268.90 22,735.05 32,852.94 28,302.64

17 India's Trade Balance -1,84,000.33 1,61,348.24 1,02,627.40 1,91,047.65 2,63,084.03

TABLE 2- Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, Import Export Data Bank (Value in US $
Millions)
 HISTORICAL DATA OF TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND USA

FIGURE 3- Shows the comparison in the total value of exports from India to the United States
(in Billion Dollars)

FIGURE 3- Data from BACI HS6 REV. 1992 (1995 - 2021)

FIGURE 4- Shows the comparison in the total value of exports from United States to India (in
Billion Dollars)

FIGURE 4- Data from BACI HS6 REV. 1992 (1995 - 2021)

 COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE INDIA-UNITED STATES

FIGURE 5- Shows the comparison in the export values from India and the USA of the major
products: Petroleum gas, Diamonds, Packaged medicaments, Jewellery and Gold (in US $)

FIGURE 5- Source: Data from BACI HS6 REV. 1992 (1995 - 2021).

BILATERAL SERVICE TRADE

FIGURE 6- Shows the value of different variety of Services Exports from USA to India (in US $)

FIGURE 6- Source: Data from UN Comtrade United Nations International Trade Statistics Database.
FIGURE 7- Shows the comparison in the total value of Exports over the years in various
countries: India, USA, UK, Russia

FIGURE 7- Source: OECD

FIGURE 8- Shows the services trends for 2022 Q4 in comparison to the 2019 average for
various countries: India, China, Brazil, Russian Federation, United States, European Union

FIGURE 8- Source: UNCTAD

 TOP DESTINATIONS OF INDIAN EXPORTS

FIGURE 9- Shows the top destinations of ‘Gems and Precious Metals’ exported from India

FIGURE 9- Source: Ministry of Commerce Dashboard

FIGURE 10- Shows the top destinations of ‘Drugs and Pharmaceuticals’ exported from India

FIGURE 10- Source: Ministry of Commerce Dashboard

As it can be seen in FIGURE 9, following a decrease in 2020–21, the export of precious metals
and gemstones had a recovery in 2021–2022. The industry expanded by 55 percent between
2021 and 2022 compared to the prior year, and it exported goods worth US$ 39 billion (Ministry
of Commerce and Industry, 2023). In terms of products, growth was seen in lab-grown
diamonds, studded gold jewellery, silver jewellery, and cut and polished diamonds. The value of
diamond exports increased by 31% to US$ 24.4 billion, whilst lab-grown diamond exports,
which are viewed as a sustainable alternative, increased by 212% to US$ 1.3 billion in
2021–2022 (GJPEC, 2023).

India is the third-largest pharmaceutical market in the world, and it is extremely competitive.
Pharma product manufacture of the highest standard is made possible by modern infrastructure
and skilled labour. As it can be seen in FIGURE 10, The USA receives 29% of India's exports,
making it the nation with the biggest percentage, followed by several European nations. The
fact that 55% of India's export market is in nations with regulated pharmaceutical industries,
where it is necessary to abide by strict laws and rigorous standards, confirms the excellent
quality of our goods.

NAVIGATING THE PRESENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIAN-AMERICAN

RELATIONSHIP SCENARIO

India got US$ 81.72 billion in FY 2020–21, the highest amount of foreign direct investment ever.
The United States of America ranks second in terms of FDI equity inflow with 17.94%.

The "U.S.- India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership," which envisions bilateral
collaboration on major initiatives in the present decade to accomplish the goals of the Paris
Agreement, was established by the United States and India.

To increase their military and defence collaboration, India and the United States have struck a
deal to work together on the development of air-launched unmanned aerial vehicles (ALUAV).
A bilateral space situational awareness agreement that India and the United States inked in
2022 will promote more information exchange and space collaboration.

In order to plug the policy gaps and put an end to the COVID epidemic, the US-led Global Action
Plan (GAP) framework was launched in February 2022, and India is actively engaging in it. India
is a global leader in three GAP areas: capacity building for healthcare professionals, supply chain
resilience, and getting vaccinations in arms.
The India-U.S. 2+2 Annual Ministerial Dialogue, presided over by the External Affairs Minister
and their respective counterparts, discusses critical local and international issues as well as
bilateral relations in the defence, strategic, and security sectors. On April 11, 2022, the fourth
2+2 Dialogue took place in Washington, D.C.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India and the US will pave the way for the
ISRO's 'NETRA' in Bengaluru and the American Combined Space Operation Centre (CSpOC) to
begin working together to defend both countries' satellites from natural and man-made threats.
It would establish a framework for the exchange of information between India and the US
regarding space debris and other objects, as well as the potential threat they may pose to the
security and safety of both new and existing satellites as well as other space assets belonging to
the two countries.

On May 23, 2022, the Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Development Finance Cooperation [DFC]
signed an Investment Incentive Agreement to facilitate increased Investment support offered by
the U.S. DFC in India.

The third Counter Narcotics Working Group (CNWG) meeting between the United States and
India took place on July 7 in New Delhi. The Director General of the Narcotics Control Bureau
led the delegation from India. For the purpose of collaborating on drug-related issues, an ALOA
was signed.

INDIA-US TRADE TURBULENCE

Even though there is a steep increase in the goods trade between India and the US. The major
commodities in USA's import basket from India remain the same- pharma, old gems, jewellery.

India’s share in the USA’s total trade has remained 2 percent of total since the past years from
2017-21, while China’s has hovered around 15 percent.

India is stuck supplying the same old products, while Chinese exports are in high-growth sectors
like electronics, transport equipment, chemicals and machinery.

POLITICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND USA

The political relations between India and the United States have undergone significant
transformations over the decades, evolving from a cautious distance during the Cold War era to
a strategic partnership in the 21st century. Several key factors have shaped the nature of their
political interactions, including shared democratic values, economic interests, security concerns,
and geopolitical shifts. Here are some important phases and aspects of the political relations
between India and the USA:

Cold War Era and Nonalignment

During the Cold War, India pursued a policy of nonalignment, avoiding alignment with either of
the superpowers, the USA or the Soviet Union. Despite ideological differences, India maintained
diplomatic ties with both countries but leaned more towards the Soviet Union. The United
States, on the other hand, was closer to India's regional rival, Pakistan.

Post-Cold War Thaw

With the end of the Cold War, both countries began to explore possibilities for closer
engagement. India initiated economic reforms and opened its markets, leading to improved
economic relations with the United States.

Strategic Dialogue and Bilateral Agreements

The late 1990s marked a turning point in Indo-US relations. The United States imposed
sanctions on India after it conducted nuclear tests in 1998. However, efforts to rebuild relations
gained momentum in the early 2000s. Bilateral initiatives such as the Next Steps in Strategic
Partnership (NSSP) paved the way for increased cooperation in areas like civil nuclear
cooperation, space exploration, and defence.

Civil Nuclear Deal

The landmark India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement, signed in 2008, marked a significant milestone
in the relationship. It granted India access to civilian nuclear technology and fuel, despite not
being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Strategic Convergence

In the 21st century, the two countries have strengthened their strategic partnership. Shared
concerns about terrorism, maritime security, and stability in the Indo-Pacific region have
deepened their cooperation. Both nations have participated in joint military exercises and
dialogues on security issues.
Economic Ties

Economic relations between India and the USA have grown considerably, with the United States
being one of India's top trading partners. Bilateral trade, investment, and technology
collaboration have expanded, contributing to economic growth in both countries.

People-to-People Contacts

The Indian diaspora in the United States, one of the largest immigrant communities, has played
a role in fostering people-to-people ties between the two countries. This has contributed to
cultural exchange, educational collaboration, and enhanced understanding.

Global Issues

India and the USA have collaborated on global issues such as climate change, health security,
and counterterrorism. Both nations have worked together in international forums like the
United Nations and G20 to address common challenges.

Leadership Interactions

High-level visits, including those by Indian Prime Ministers and US Presidents, have underscored
the importance of the relationship. These visits have provided opportunities for leaders to
discuss strategic priorities and areas of cooperation.

The political relations between India and the USA have come a long way, from periods of
scepticism to a multifaceted strategic partnership. While challenges and differences remain,
both countries have recognized the potential benefits of collaboration on various fronts, and
their political interactions continue to shape the evolving global order.

INDIA AND USA: G-20 IMPACT

India and the USA maintain diplomatic relations within the framework of various international
organisations, including the G-20. The G-20, or Group of Twenty, is a major international forum
for governments and central bank governors from 19 countries and the European Union. It was
established in 1999 in response to the financial crises of the late 1990s and has since evolved
into a platform for discussing and coordinating economic policies among the world's major
economies.
India and the USA are both members of the G-20 and participate in its summits and meetings.
The G-20 serves as a platform for discussions on a wide range of global economic issues,
including trade, finance, development, and more. The interactions between India and the USA
within the G-20 framework can involve bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summits or
engagements in working groups focused on specific issues.

India and the USA often share common interests and concerns within the G-20, such as
promoting global economic growth, financial stability, and addressing challenges like climate
change, inequality, and sustainable development. Given the significance of both India and the
USA as major economies and geopolitical actors, their collaboration within the G-20 can play a
crucial role in shaping the group's agenda and outcomes.

FIGURE 11 AND 12- World output and population share of G-20 economies in 2022

FIGURE 11- Source: IMF

FIGURE 12- Source: IMF

 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS

FIGURE 11: Shows the comparison of FDI outward flows of India and USA (In US $ Millions)

FIGURE 11- Source: OECD

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) outflows refer to the investment of a country's domestic funds
into businesses or assets located in other countries. This is in contrast to FDI inflows, which
represent foreign investment coming into a country's economy. FDI outflows typically indicate
the extent to which domestic entities are investing in foreign markets to expand their
operations, access new markets, acquire assets, or benefit from favourable business conditions
abroad.

India has been actively seeking foreign investment to boost its economic growth and
development. The Indian government has implemented several policy measures to attract FDI in
various sectors.

Both India and the US recognize the importance of FDI in driving economic growth, but their
approaches to FDI regulation and promotion may differ due to their unique economic, social,
and political contexts.
TABLE 3- Shows the values of FDI outflows from India and USA
FDI Flows (outward in Million US $) in Years INDIA USA
2015 7514 274486
2016 5047 305441
2017 11090 353663
2018 11418 -129021
2019 13141 55630
2020 11122 261476
2021 17239 311760
2022 13988 402214
TABLE 3- Source: OECD

CONCLUSION

The bilateral relationship between the United States of America and India has evolved
significantly over the years, encompassing both economic and political dimensions. The
economic ties between the USA and India have grown substantially, with trade and investment
forming the cornerstone of their relationship. Both countries are major trading partners for
each other, engaging in the exchange of goods and services across various sectors. Bilateral
trade has expanded, and the USA is among India's top trading partners. Additionally, the USA
has become one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) into India, contributing
to economic growth and job creation. The two nations have initiated strategic partnerships in
sectors such as technology, innovation, defence, energy, and infrastructure. Collaboration in
areas like defence manufacturing, space exploration, and cybersecurity showcases the depth of
their economic engagement. Despite robust economic relations, trade disputes and
negotiations have also characterised the economic landscape. Both countries have navigated
issues related to market access, intellectual property rights, and trade imbalances. Trade
agreements and dialogues have been pursued to address these concerns and enhance
economic cooperation.

USA-India political relations have undergone a transformation, evolving from cautious

engagement to strategic partnerships. Shared democratic values, common security concerns,
and the recognition of each other's importance in global affairs have been instrumental in
forging these bonds. The two countries have collaborated on matters of regional and global
security, including counterterrorism efforts, maritime security, and defence technology. Their
strategic alignment is evident in joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and defence trade
agreements. Both the USA and India engage in various international forums such as the United
Nations, G-20, and regional organisations. They cooperate on global challenges, including
climate change, health crises, and promoting sustainable development. High-level visits and
dialogues between political leaders have played a significant role in enhancing political
relations. These exchanges have provided opportunities to discuss strategic priorities, align
interests, and deepen mutual understanding.

The US-India economic and political relations have evolved into a multifaceted partnership
characterised by collaboration in trade, investment, defence, and regional security. This
relationship reflects shared interests, democratic values, and a commitment to addressing
global challenges. While the journey has seen moments of both cooperation and negotiation,
the overall trajectory demonstrates a growing recognition of the mutual benefits that come
from strengthened economic and political ties.
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