Impact of changes to coastal sediment budgets and sea-level

rise to coastal towns and beaches: Case Study of St Francis

Imaad Schuller

24417238

Plagiarism Declaration

1. Plagiarism is the use of ideas, material and other

intellectual property of another’s work and to present is as
my own.
2. I agree that plagiarism is a punishable offence because it
constitutes theft.
3. I also understand that direct translations are plagiarism.
4. Accordingly, all quotations and contributions from any
source whatsoever (including the internet) have been cited
fully. I understand that the reproduction of text without
quotation marks (even when the source is cited) is
plagiarism.
5. I declare that the work contained in this assignment is my
original work and that I have not previously (in its entirety
or in part) submitted it for grading in this
module/assignment or another module/assignment.

24417238
(Student number)
I.SCHULLER (Signature)

I. SCHULLER
(Initials and surname)
5 MAY 2023 (Date)

Word Count: 2084

 Impact of changes to coastal sediment budgets and sea-level rise to coastal towns and beaches:
Case Study of St Francis

1. Introduction

Coastal landscapes can be seen as some of the most dynamic environments on Earth.
Changes in sea level, sediment budget and increasing climate change all have
significant impacts on these settings. This report will launch a case study on the St.
Francis region on the south coast of South Africa. The area has witnessed severe beach
erosion during an equinoctial storm in 1978 among other factors. We aim to explore
the effects of this dynamic change on the environment overall.

2. Literature Review

We will look into the works of Lubke (1985); McLachlan, Illenberger, Burkinshaw and
Burns (1994); Bremmer (1983) and Stirton (1978) in search of insight of the study area.
We will also consult the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
Climate (SROCC) in our discussion session.

3. Regional Setting

3.1 Background

Cape St Francis is one of several isolated capes along the southern and south-eastern
seaboard of South Africa. (see figure 1) (Lubke, 1985: 102). Despite relative
inaccessibility, the St Francis Bay coastal township, along with a marina, was
established in 1964 (Lubke, 1985: 102) The marina's man-made canals lead into the
Kromme estuary. The older, smaller tourist community of Cape St Francis is located
around the Cape St Francis lighthouse at Seal Point.
 Figure 1: Study Area of St Francis (Lubke, 1985: 100)

3.2 Environmental Characteristics

3.2.1 Climate

Climate is moderate, ranging from Mediterranean with hot, dry summers and wet
winters in the southwest Cape to almost subtropical climate conditions, with two rainy
seasons in the east. (McLachlan et al., 1994: 52) Rainfall typically occurs in the winter
months around the Cape Francis region and Lubke (1985: 103) suggests rainfall to be
higher at Seal Point (666mm) than the St Francis Bay region. He also suggests that due
to cooling onshore winds, temperatures at the Cape Francis region are somewhat lower
than the St Francis Bay area. Overall, rainfall data over the coastal dune areas fluctuate
between 400-800mm (McLachlan et al., 1994: 52) The region generally has a mean
monthly temperature 15-20°C. (McLachlan et al., 1994: 52) Figure 2 shows Lubke’s
(1985:103) climate diagram for the St Francis Bay region. Relevant to this report, winds
are trimodal but mostly from the west-southwest throughout the year. Other winds
include easterlies in the summer and offshore berg winds from the northwest in autumn.
 Gale force winds are more common in the south coast's eastern sector, occurring 11
times per year in Cape Town and 20 times per year in Port Elizabeth on average.
(McLachlan et al., 1994: 52)

Figure 2: Climate diagram for St Francis Bay (Lubke, 1985: 104)

3.2.2 Physiography and geology

The region’s geology can be defined as a flat expanse covered in limestone and
driftsands dating from the late Tertiary to Recent origin. Headlands are made of Table
Mountain Group quartzite rock outcrops and face south-east and east with embayments
that logarithmic spiral shapes (Bremmer, 1983) (Lubke, 1985: 102). Sand deposits
gather along the curve of the embayments away from the headlands. (Lubke, 1985: 102)
A prominent feature of the region are its dunefields. The headland-bypass dunefields
cover a “maximum distance of 17km when fully active” (McLachlan et al., 1994: 55)
The strongest wind blows between west and southwest (Lubke, 1985: 103) (McLachlan
et al., 1994: 56) McLachlan et al (1994: 56) describes that the sandy beaches at Oyster-
and Thys Bay feed the two primary pathways of active transverse dunes which cross
the headlands amid a network of vegetated longitudinal ridges and implies evidence of
Pleistocene and Holocene dunefield activity. South of the Kromme River mouth,
aeolian sand reaches St. Francis Bay. St Francis bay can be categorised as a zetaform
bay, opening southeastwards and having extensive sandy shorelines contained between
the headlands. “The wave regime and predominant winds, both high-energy, approach
 from the southwest, resulting in appreciable eastward longshore and aeolian sand
transport.” (McLachlan et al., 1994: 56)

3.2.3 Vegetation

Lubke (1985) provides an extensive survey into the vegetation of the area and a more
comprehensive understanding can be obtained in his paper. Overall, we can summarise
Lubke’s (1985: 103-105) observations as follows: south coast dune fynbos is found
across the major part of the study region along the coast in the winter rainfall area up
to Gqeberha; pioneer species (psammophilous) can be found on the stabilised dunes.
He also looks at dune stabilisation techniques that were introduced in 1964 whereby
utilizing local fynbos and bushes cuttings to cover dunes with brushwood over a 3/4-
year period to promote vegetation expanse. Acacia cyclops is determined to be the main
invader of the region and is becoming a threat to the natural vegetation after being
introduced to control driftsands. (Stirton, 1978) Of interest here, we need to look at
beach vegetation which can impact the beach profile. Although vegetation may imply
dune stability, they are still prone to erosion during severe storms. (Lubke, 1985: 108)

3.2.4 Land Use

Until the 1960s, the St. Francis Bay region was primarily used for livestock grazing,
with little recreational development. The location has subsequently been transformed
into a prominent resort, with the dunes behind the beach stabilized. Despite ecologists'
concerns about the impact on the dune systems, the Santareme dunefield has also been
stabilized for a new resort. (McLachlan et al., 1994: 56)

4. Methodology

Using data sets for the mean annual sea level heights relative to local datum measured
at Durban harbour (1971 – 2018) (Archived by PSMSL, data supplied by SANHO) and
mean annual sea level heights relative to local datum measured at Port Elizabeth
harbour (1980 – 2018) (Archived by PSMSL, data supplied by SANHO) we created
scatter graphs that indicate mean annual sea-level changes for both Durban and
Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) to analyse and contextualise the rate of change of sea level.
This was also done using the linear trendline equation y = mx + b. The trends derived
from the graphs and calculations are then compared to projected rates of sea-level
change obtained from the IPCC. Furthermore, using Google Earth we measured the
 width of the main beach found at Cape St Francis and we analyse the future changes to
the coastal sediment budget and maps are created to demonstrate changes to the region.

5. Results

Figure 3 below shows the mean annual sea level change for Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth)
for the years 1980-2018

Mean Sea-Level Change for Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) (cm/yr)

7120

7100
y = 2,009x + 3032,4
R² = 0,5161
7080

7060
Sea Level (cm)

7040

7020

7000

6980
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Years
Figure 3: Mean Sea-Level Change for Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) (cm/yr) (Archived
by PSMSL, data supplied by SANHO)

Figure 3 above illustrates a rising sea level with 1980 having a height of 7009cm; the
year 2000 having a height of 7071cm; the year 2003 was recorded the highest with
7108cm and finally 2018 having a height reading of 7103cm. Using the linear
trendline equation mentioned, the slope of the trendline (m) which equates to the mean
annual rate of change, is calculated to be 2,009cm/yr. The rise in sea level between the
year 1980 and 2020 is calculated to be 80,36cm.

Figure 4 below shows the mean annual sea level change for Durban for the years 1971-
2018. It illustrates a rising sea level with the year 1971 having a height of 6992cm;
1980 recorded the lowest height at 6943cm with 2017 recording the highest at 7057cm.
Finally, the year 2018 recorded a height of 7049cm. Using the linear trendline equation
 y = mx + b, m equates to the slope and thus the mean annual rate of change is calculated
to be 1,507cm/yr. The rise in sea level between the year 1980 and 2020 is calculated to
be 60,3cm.

Mean Sea-Level Change for Durban (cm/yr)

7080

7060
y = 1,5076x + 3998,5
7040

7020
Sea Level (cm)

7000

6980

6960

6940

6920
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Years
Figure 4: Mean Sea-Level Change for Durban (cm/yr) (Archived by PSMSL, data
supplied by SANHO)

Figure 5, 6 and 7 illustrate the width of the main beach found at Cape St Francis. The
data reads the width of the beach for the years 2022, 2012 and 2006 respectively.

Path line data suggests that in 2022 the beach had a width of 3102,60 meters, as Figure
5 illustrates. In 2012, the beach had a width of 3050,46 meters as Figure 6 suggests.
Finally, in 2006 width measurements read 3008,07 meters as illustrated in Figure 7.

The above implies a decrease in beach width which is influenced by rising sea levels.

The recognition of potential human error should be taken into account when surveying
this data set. Other limitations also include seasonal tides that could influence the water-
level at the beach that could result in inaccurate measurements of the beach width
overall. Additionally, limitations regarding temporal resolution and accuracy may
occur.
Figure 5: Cape St Francis main beach width measurements for the year 2022. (Google
Earth)

Figure 6: Cape St Francis main beach width measurements for the year 2012. (Google
Earth)
 Figure 7: Cape St Francis main beach width measurements for the year 2006. (Google
Earth)

Figure 8 and 9 below shows the comparison of vegetation cover in the dune fields of St Francis
for the years 2010 and 2022 respectively. The 12-year comparison shows an increase in
vegetation cover in the region.
Figure 8: Vegetation Cover in the St Francis Region for the year 2012 (Google Earth)

Figure 9: Vegetation cover in the St Francis region for the year 2022 (Google Earth)
6. Discussion

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have released
the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
raising concern over rising sea levels. Using their findings as a framework to interpret
the results of the above data, it is critical to analyse the reality of rising sea levels in
this South African context.

The important findings from the SROCC, relevant to this study are as follows: global
sea levels are projected to rise between 0,29 and 1,1 meters by the end of the century
(Moore, 2019) Moore (2019) also suggests that these projections could be
underestimated. This assumption is based on the findings of the IPCC not fully taking
into account the rapid changes around the polar regions which could see sea level rise
as much as 2,5m.

Considering Gqeberha’s mean annual sea level rise of 2,009cm/yr, over 100 years;
excluding the acknowledgement of potential exponential sea level rising, the sea would
have risen by ~2 meters. This exceeds the IPCC’s prediction of between 0,29 and 1,1
meters.

Similarly, considering Durban’s mean annual sea level rise of 1,507cm/yr, over a 100-
year period, sea level would have risen by ~1,5 meters. Again, this excludes the
acknowledgement of exponential sea rise rather than linear and also exceeds the IPCC’s
prediction.

These predictions and calculations can be directly applied to the St Francis region since
it shares a coastline with Durban and Gqeberha. Lubke’s (1985) observation of a 9-
meter beach retreat between 1975 and 1982 serves as a testament to the impact of sea
level rise in the area. With an estimated sea rise of between ~1.5- ~2 meters, the beach
will retreat further. As a result of this, cost of restoration would increase up to a point
where it is not feasible to do so. As a region which relies heavily on a coastal tourism
market, beaches are vital in maintaining incomes of residents and investors. As seen in
Figure 5,6 and 7 there are several human settlements within ±300 meters of the beach,
this is especially true along the zetaform bay. The predicted sea level rise would
severely impact these settlements.

Using McLachlan et al.’s (1994: 56) analysis, the impact of heavy storms on the
beaches of Cape St. Francis has been larger than the amount of sediment delivered by
longshore drift. In answering the question “how have the dune fields changed in the
last 100 years, and how is this likely to influence sediment availability to beaches?”,
using the analysis of McLachlan et al., (1994:57) research shows the dune fields near
St Francis have altered dramatically over the past 100 years. Before stabilisation, the
Santareme dunes supplied 150 000 m3/yr of aeolian sand to the beaches however post-
stabilisation, this was reduced to 7000 m3/yr across a 200-meter width. With less
sediment available to beaches, the risk of erosion and beach width has increased as
evidenced above.

The long-term consequences of sea-level rise and changes to the sediment budget
include increased erosion, loss of beach width, loss of land available to residents and
negative impacts on coastal ecosystems. Mitigation techniques to be implemented are;
but not limited to, beach nourishment, dune restoration and coastal preservation
measures. These options should however be researched thoroughly since they include
their own economic and ecological costs.
References:

Bremner, J. M. (1983). “Properties of logarithmic spiral beaches with particular reference to

Algoa Bay”. In Sandy beaches as ecosystems, ed. by A. McLachlan and T. Erasmus.
97-113. The Hague, Dr W. Junk.

Lubke, R.A. (1985) “Erosion of the beach at St Francis Bay, Eastern Cape, South
Africa,” Biological Conservation, 32(2), pp. 99–127. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.1016/0006-3207(85)90080-1.

McLachlan, A. et al. (1994) “Management Implications of Tampering with Littoral Sand

Sources,” Journal of Coastal Research, (12), pp. 51–59.

Moore, R. (2019) IPCC report: Sea level rise is a present and future danger, Be a Force for
the Future. Available at: https://www.nrdc.org/bio/rob-moore/ipcc-report-sea-level-
rise-present-and-future-
danger#:~:text=The%20Special%20Report%20on%20the,ever%20made%20by%20the
%20IPCC. (Accessed: May 3, 2023).

Stirton, C. H. (1978). “Plant invaders, beautiful but dangerous”. Cape Town,

Department of Nature and Environmental Conservation.