THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY

9th edition: September 2020

Quiet situation at a shopping mall in Jakarta. Policy measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic has hit hard mall business.
Since reopening on 15 June, after the relaxation of Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB), visitors in malls was only below
50 percent of capacity. The PSBB is reimposed since 14 September, but 83 malls in Jakarta are allowed to open under
strict health protocol and limited capacity. Cafes and restaurants are prohibited to serve dine-in, only take away, while
playground, fitness, and cinemas are still closed. Limited offices activities during PSBB would also reduce traffic in malls.
 THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY
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Indonesian economy based on a stock-take of the publicly statistical data.
The publisher has made efforts to ensure that the data contained in this
periodical is reliable. Neither the publisher nor any person acting on its
behalf may be held responsible for the use to which information contained
may be put.
Next edition: October 2020

"Economics is a choice between alternatives all the time. Those are the trade-offs"
Paul A. Samuelson
Nobel Laureate in Economics (1970)
Trade-off Indonesia
INSIGHT
STATE OF PLAY: The Consumer Price Index deflated.
The deflation slightly fell to 0.05% (m-t-m) in August from
0.1% in July. It was still driven by lower prices for foods
and transportation. Core inflation was neutralized by the
deflations of administered prices goods, volatile goods,
energy, and volatile foods. Annual inflation fell to 1.32%
Rupiah was on weakening trend and fell 0.9% (m-t-m).
It was averaging at Rp14,725 per US$ in August and
depreciated further in the second week of September. On
18 August, Bank Indonesia hold BI Rate at 4.00%, especially
to stabilize rupiah amid low inflationary pressures. Foreign
reserve increased to US$137.0 bn, which equivalent to 9
months of imports and servicing government’s debt.
The growing NPL a bit worsened banking performance.
The higher non-performing loans were cushioned by
strong capital adequacy amid the fall in net interest
margins. The banks intermediary function decreased as
funding grew higher than lending. As of 10 August, loan
restructuring was Rp837.6 tn of 7.18 million debtors.
Capital market was disrupted by foreigners' net-sell.
Foreign investors recorded higher net-sell of Rp8.5 tn
over August. Stock market composite index was on an
upward trend to reach the level of 5,300. Total trading
and market capitalization of the stocks improved, and
so did the average P/E ratio. The returns of government
and corporate bonds decreased as shown by slower
growth of indexes. Yields of Indonesian state debt and
5-years Sovereign Credit Default Swap fell further.
The manufacturing entered expansionary phase.
Purchasing Manager Index increased to 50.8 in August
from 46.9 in July. Business confidence rose to the highest
since May 2019 as companies adjusted to the gradual
easing of the Covid-19 restrictions. Expectations on
output over the coming year rose from July. Companies
remained optimistic that the pandemic will come to an
end, and market conditions will return to normal.
Trade surplus fell, exports dropped and imports up.
The surplus decreased 28% to US$2.3 bn in August from
US$3.2 bn in July. Exports of agriculture, manufacturing,
and mining printed reductions. Imports of consumption
and intermediary goods increased, while capital goods
decreased. It was an early sign of growing domestic
demand for consumption and production activities,,
but not investment. Cumulatively, over Jan-Aug 2020,
exports fell 5.2% (y-o-y), while imports contracted
17.7%. As a result, trade printed a surplus of US$11.08
bn, contrary to the deficit of US$3.0 bn in Jan-Aug 2019.
PAGE 1 OF 10
THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020
State budget realization remained underperformed.
Over January-July, the deficit of 2020 State Budget
reached Rp330.2 tn, boosted 79.5% (y-o-y). Revenue
fell largely due to further contraction in tax receipts.
The collection of all types of taxes slumped because
economic slowdown and the delivery of tax incentives.
Central government spending hiked 4.3% and interest
payment accounted for 23.0% of total. Excess financing
increased to Rp172.8 tn along with low realization
of "Others"" spending, largely to finance programs
handling the pandemic and economic recovery.
Government debt to GDP ratio lifted to 33.6% in July.
External public debt grew lower than private debt's.
Total external debt grew 3.5% (y-o-y) to US$409.7 in
July. Public debt valued at US$201.7 bn., grew 2.2%
(y-o-y). Private debt was US$207.9 bn., and grew higher
by 4.8%. The debt of State-Owned Enterprises grew
14%, lower than the 20% growth in June. The debt of
foreign and joint venture companies grew 8.7%, while
local companies debt fell 2.4%. Debt to GDP ratio
reached 37.33% and long-term debt was 89.1% of total.
OUTLOOK: Another deflation is possible this month
due to the falling prices of foods and the reimposed
Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) in Jakarta since 14
September. Over the last two weeks rupiah was on a
depreciating trend. It would remain volatile at the level
of Rp14,800-15,000 per US$ as long as capital outflows
continued. Stock market is still volatile and the index
might fall to below 5,000 if foreign investors' selling
pressures continued. Imports would increase further
when manufacturing stay at the expansionary phase.
TRADE-OFF: Low inflationary pressures as indicated
by two consecutive months of deflations should be a
strong rationale for further lessening monetary policy.
Lowering interest rate could stimulate economic
recovery when the risk of recession is imminent during
the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Bank Indonesia on
17 Sep decided to maintain BI Rate, as its monetary
policy instrument, considered the need of maintaining
rupiah stability. Since mid-August to date, capital
outflows have contributed to the weakening rupiah.
BI's decision is a trade-off, which weighs the benefits of
economic stability above the opportunity cost of losing
the chance to reduce cost of capital for the government
and businesess in issuing debt securities or taking loans.
Jakarta, 17 September 2020
Trade-off Indonesia
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

DASHBOARD 2019 2020

INDICATORS
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
INFLATION (%)
Year-on-year 3,49 3,39 3,13 3,00 2,72 2.68 2.98 2.96 2.67 2.19 1.96 1.54 1.32

Month-to-month 0,12 0,27 0,02 0,14 0,34 0.39 0.28 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.18 (0.1) (0.05)

Core 0,43 0,29 0,17 0,11 0,11 0.19 0.14 0.29 0.17 0.06 0.02 0.16 0.29

Administered prices (0,40) 0,01 0,03 0,03 0,63 (0,28) (0.11) (0.19) (0.14) 0.67 0.22 (0.07) (0.02)

Volatile Goods (0,25) (2,26) (0,47) 0,42 0,86 1.93 1.27 (0.38) (0.09) (0.50) 0.77 (1.19) (1.44)

Energy 0,01 0,00 0,06 0,01 0,04 (0,61) (0.24) 0.04 0.13 0.08 (0.07) (0.02) (0.01)

Volatile Foods 1.77 1.17 (0.15) (0.13) (0.49) 0.66 (1.06) (1.29)

CURRENCY, FOREIGN RESERVE, BI RATE

Rupiah to US dollar (average) 14.242 14.111 14.118 14.069 14.017 13,732 13,776 15,195 15,867 14,906 14,196 14,725

Foreign Reserve (US$ billion) 126,4 124,3 126,7 126,6 129.2 131.7 130.4 120.9 127.9 130.5 131.7 135.1 137.0

BI Rate (%) 5,50 5,25 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 4.75 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 4.00 4.00

EXTERNAL DEBT
Public Debt Growth (%, y-o-y) 8,26 10,0 13,0 9,72 8.9 9.2 4.90 (3.50) 1.4 3.0 1.9 2.2

Private Debt Growth (%, y-o-y) 10,09 9,89 9,00 5,67 9.1 5.1 5.2 4.1 4.1 6.6 6.9 4.8

MANUFACTURING
Purchasing Manager Index 49,0 49,1 47,7 48,2 49,5 49,3 51.9 45.3 27.5 28.5 39.1 46.9 50.8

EXTERNAL TRADE (US$ BILLION)

Total Exports 13,28 14,10 14,93 14,01 14.47 13.4 13.94 14.09 12.19 10.53 12.08 13.73 13.07

Total Imports 14,19 14,26 14,77 15,34 14.50 14.3 11.60 13.35 12.54 8.44 10.76 10.47 10.74

Trade Balance (0,92) (0,17) 0,16 (1,33) (0.06) (0.86) 2.34 0.74 (0.35) 2.09 1.32 3.26 2.33

Oil and Gas Balance (0,76) (0,76) (0,83) (1,03) (0.97) (1.18) (0.93) (0.93) (0.24) (0.01) (0.10) (0.25) (0.34)

Non-oil and Gas Balance (0,16) 0,60 0,99 (0,30) 0.94 0,32 3.27 1.68 (0.10) 2.10 1.41 3.52 2.67

Oil and Gas Export 0,87 0,83 0,93 1,10 1.16 0.8 0.82 0.67 0.61 0.65 0.58 0.70 0.61

Oil and Gas Import 1,63 1,59 1,76 2,10 2.13 2.0 1.75 1.61 0.85 0.66 0.68 0.96 0.95

Non Oil and Gas Export 12,40 13,27 14,01 12,90 13.31 12.6 13.12 13.42 11.58 9.88 11.50 13.03 12.46

Non Oil and Gas Import 12,56 12,67 13,02 13,20 12.37 12.3 9.85 11.74 11.68 7.78 10.09 9.51 9.79

BANKING
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 23,93 23,28 23,54 23.54 23.40 22.83 22.33 21.67 22.13 22.16 22.59

Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) 94,66 94,34 93,96 93.96 94.43 93.36 92.5 92.5 92.2 90.94 8.91

Net Interest Margin (%) 4,90 4,90 4,90 4.89 4.91 4.96 4.81 4.31 4.57 4.50 4.46
Funding Growth (%, y-o-y) 7,62 7,47 5,90 6,7 6.54 6.80 7.77 9.5 8.08 8.87 7.95

Lending Growth (%, y-o-y) 8,59 7,89 6,53 7,1 6.08 5.93 5.93 7.9 5.73 3.04 1.49

Non Performing Loan (%) 2,60 2,66 2,73 2,8 2,52 2.77 2.79 2.77 2.89 3.01 3.11

CAPITAL MARKET
Composite Stock Index (end month) 6.328 6.169 6.228 6.012 6.300 5,940 5,453 4,539 4,716 4,753 4,905 5,150 5,238.

Market Capitalisation (Rp trillion) 7,329 7,260 7,090 7,163 7,265 6,864 6,304 5,259 5,453 5,497 5,674 5,968 6,074

Price Earning Ratio (average, x) 17.71 19.10 19.10 18.24 18.06 17.09 16.52 11.74 13.5 13.0 12.6 10.1 11.5

Yield 10-year Govt. Bonds (avg.) 7,40 7,28 7,17 7,04 7,17 6.864 6.601 7.48 8,068 7.786 7.215 7.041 6.789

Credit Default Swap - 5 years 91,4 92,3 75,9 73,6 62,3 68.0 95.6 171.8 218.9 165.2 133.0
115.8
89.2

Explanatory Notes: Colours indicate the movement of each indicators: “IMPROVED”, “ UNCHANGED”, or “DETERIORATED”.
: Improved, an indicator increased or decreased. For example, export increased, inflation decreased, and etc.
: Unchanged, an indicator did not change compared to the previous month.
: Deteriorated, an indicator increased or decreased. For example, deficit increased, stock index decreased, and etc.
: Data on the respective indicator has not available yet

PAGE 2 OF 10
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

OVERVIEW
1. MACROECONOMY
INFLATION
4.00 0.50 The Consumer Price Index printed another
0.40 monthly deflation in Aug at -0.05% from -0.10%
in Jul. It mostly due to the deeper deflation in
3.00
0.30

food and beverage (-0.86%). Education and

0.20

Monthly
Annual

2.00
0.10

0.00
personal care and other services charted 0.57%
1.00

(0.10) and 2.02% inflations. Administered price goods,

0.00
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
(0.20) volatile goods, energy, and foodstuffs charted
2019 2020 deflations, while core inflation hiked to 0.29%.
Annual inflation (%) Monthly inflation (%)
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Yearly inflation fell to 1.32% from 1.54%.
MONTHLY INFLATION AUGUST 2020
FOOD, CLOTING, AND HOUSING, HOUSEHOLD TRANSPOR- INFO, COM, RECREATION, CATERING PERSONAL CARE
BEVERAGE, FOOTWEAR UTILITIES, EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL SPORT, AND AND AND
HEALTHCARE TATION EDUCATION
TOBACCO ENERGY AND CARES SERVICES CULTURE RESTAURANT OTHER SERVICES

-0.86 % 0.07 % 0.02 % 0.08 % 0.06% -0.14 % 0.03 % 0.05 % 0.57 % 0.13% 2.02 %
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

PERCEPTION ON ECONOMIC CONDITION

150
OPTIMISTIC Consumer's perception on Indonesia's
economic condition improved amid the
140

130

120

110
relaxation of measures to contain pancemic.
100

90
Still, it was far below optimistic zone.
80 According to Bank Indonesia's survey, the
index rose to 55.6 in Aug. The impoved index
70

60

of current income upgraded the indexes of job

50

40

30

20
opportunity and purchasing durable goods.
PESIMISTIC Perception on the
Economy
Current Income
Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
Job Opportunity Purchasing of Durable
Goods The improved perception on job opprtunity
Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia largely occured on high-school graduates.
CURRENCY
15000 100 Over Aug, rupiah remained volatile on a
14900
99
98
depreciating trend, weakened 0.9% and its
14800 97 value was averaging at Rp14,725 per US$.
96
It bottomed to the lowest rate of Rp14,917
US$/Rupiah

14700
US$ Index

95
14600
94 on 14 Aug before moving up and down and
continued over two weeks of Sep. Capital
14500 93
92

outflows from financial markets contributed

14400
91
August September
14300 90
to the volatile rupiah. The value of US$ against
3-Aug
4-Aug
5-Aug
6-Aug
7-Aug
8-Aug
9-Aug

10-Sep
11-Sep
12-Sep
13-Sep
14-Sep
15-Sep
10-Aug
11-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
15-Aug
16-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
22-Aug
23-Aug
24-Aug
25-Aug
26-Aug
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug
1-Sep
2-Sep
3-Sep
4-Sep
5-Sep
6-Sep
7-Sep
8-Sep
9-Sep

US$/Rupiah US$ Index six major currencies (US$ index) fell from 93.5
Source: Bank Indonesia, investing.com to 92.1 in Aug and slightly rose until 15 Sep.
MONETARY POLICY RATES

BI 7 DAY REVERSE DEPOSIT LENDING

Bank Indonesia continued its neutral monetary policy stance. On
REPO RATE FACILITY RATE FACILITY RATE 17 Sep, BI decided to maintain BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI
Rate), Deposit Facility and Lending Facility Rates. The desision
considered the need to maintain the stability of rupiah amid low
inflationary pressures. To support economic recovery during the
4.00% 3.25% 4.75% Covid-19 pandemic, BI focuses on providing the liquidity includes
Source: Bank Indonesia
supporting the realization of government expenditures.

PAGE 3 OF 10
 Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

2. BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS

BANKING
OUTSTANDING LOANS THIRD PARTY FUNDS CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
JUNE 2020: RP 5,549 TRILLION JUNE 2020: RP 6,260.5 TRILLION JUN 2020: 22.55%
1.5 % Y-O-Y; 0.7% M-T-M 7.9% Y-O-Y; 1.4% M-T-M MAY 2020: 22.20%
INVESTMENT LOANS DEPOSIT RATES (IN RUPIAH): LOAN TO DEPOSIT RATIO
Rp 1,483 trillion JUN 2020: 89.10%
6.9% Y-O-Y, 1.3% M-T-M 1 MONTH:
1 MAY 2020: 90.94%
JUN 5.49%, MAY 5.61%
WORKING CAPITAL LOANS NON-PERFORMING LOAN
Rp 2,546 trillion 3 MONTHS: JUN 2020: 3.11%
0.6% Y-O-Y, 0.7% M-T-M 3 JUN 5.75%, MAY 5.87% MAY 2020: 3.01%
CONSUMPTION LOANS 6 MONTHS: NET INTEREST MARGIN
Rp 1,538 trillion JUN 2020: 4.46%
2.3% Y-O-Y, 0.02% M-T-M
6 JUN 6.13%, MAY 6.19%
Source: The Indonesian FInancial Services Authority (OJK)
MAY 2020: 4.50%

The capital adequacy of banks improved. Still, the banks' intermediary function decreased as shown by lower LDR
and the higher growth of funding than lending. Meanwhile, non -performing loans and net interest margins fell.
CAPITAL MARKETS
5,500
In Aug, stock price composite index was on
5,400
an upward trend and peaked at 5,347 on 27
5,300
Aug, and ended at 5,238 in end of month.
Afterwards, the index movement was more
5,200

volatile and on a downward trend. It fell 5%

5,100

on 10 Sep to 4,891 due to negative market's

5,000

4,900

4,800
August September reaction on the plan of reimposing PSBB in
Jakarta. Selling pressures of foreign investors
3-Aug
4-Aug
5-Aug
6-Aug
7-Aug
8-Aug
9-Aug

10-Sep
11-Sep
12-Sep
13-Sep
14-Sep
15-Sep
1-Sep
2-Sep
3-Sep
4-Sep
5-Sep
6-Sep
7-Sep
8-Sep
9-Sep
10-Aug
11-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
15-Aug
16-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
22-Aug
23-Aug
24-Aug
25-Aug
26-Aug
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug

Source: The Indonesian Stock Exchange

The Indonesian Composite Stock Index
stimulate the stock price's volatility.

MARKET SNAPSHOT FOREIGN INVESTORS TRANSACTION Total value of stock trading increased 1.9%
Indicators Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Trade Side Aug 2020 Jul 2020 (m-t-m) in Aug. Market capitalization rose
Total Trading (Rp bn.) 172,830 169,543 Buy (Rp bn) 42,146 42,763 1.74%, the average P/E ratio hiked, but P/BV
Capitalisation (Rp tn.) 6,073.9 5,968.0 Sell (Rp bn.) 50,652 46,615 fell. Foreign investors recorded sharp increase
Avg. P/E Ratio 11.5 10.1 Net Buy (Rp bn.) (8,506) (3,852)
in net-sell of Rp8.5 tn from Rp3.8 tn in Jul, and
Avg. P/BV Ratio 1.74 1.9 % to total trading 53.69% 52.72%
their shares to total trading a bit improved.
Source: The Indonesian Stock Exchange

330.00
The performance of Indonesian bonds' was on
325.00

320.00
weakening trend during Aug compared with
315.00 Jul. At the end of Aug, INDOBEX Composite
Index grew 1.41% (m-t-m), lower than 2.65%
310.00

305.00

300.00

295.00
in Jul. The growths of INDOBEX Government
290.00
and Corporate Bonds Returns fell to 1.49%
285.00

280.00
August September and 0.62% from 2.56% and 2.11%. The indexes
kept decreasing over two weeks of Sep,
275.00
3-Aug
4-Aug
5-Aug
6-Aug
7-Aug
8-Aug
9-Aug

10-Sep
11-Sep
12-Sep
13-Sep
14-Sep
15-Sep
10-Aug
11-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
15-Aug
16-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
22-Aug
23-Aug
24-Aug
25-Aug
26-Aug
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug
1-Sep
2-Sep
3-Sep
4-Sep
5-Sep
6-Sep
7-Sep
8-Sep
9-Sep

INDOBEX Composite INDOBEX Govt. Return INDOBEX Corp. Return signified lower returns of bond investment.
Source: The Indonesian Bond Price Agency

As of 31 Aug, the Indonesian tradable state securities rose 27.0% (y-o-y) and 5.0% (m-t-m) to Rp 3,353.0 tn, consisted
of Rp2,717.5 tn. of “SUN/SBN” (conventional bond) and Rp617.8 tn. of “SBSN” (shariah bond/sukuk). Commercial banks
remained the largest investors (36%), then Indonesians (28%), foreigners (29%), and BI (7%). The average yields of
10-years debt fell to 6.789 from 7.041 in end of Jul and 5-years Sovereign Credit Default Swap fell to 89,2 from 115.8 .
On 15 Sep, the outstanding of state
debt securities fell to Rp3,319.8
tn. "SUN/SBN" rose Rp19.65 tn,
FOREIGNERS INDONESIANS COMMERCIAL BANKS BANK INDONESIA and "SBSN" dropped Rp35.16 tn.
Rp 941.9 trillion Rp 971.2 trillion Rp 1,197.3 trillion Rp 224.9 trillion
Meanwhile, the 10-years yields
6.7% Y-O-Y 18.2% Y-O-Y 96.9% Y-O-Y 20.7% Y-O-Y
increased to 6.913, and the
0.4% M-T-M 1.9% M-T-M 20.9% M-T-M 21.9% M-T-M
Source: Ministry of Finance 5-years CDS hiked to 91.61.
PAGE 4 OF 10
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

3. INDUSTRY AND TRADE

MANUFACTURING
Expansion 60 Indonesia's manufacturing entered the early
55 level of expansionary phase. The IHS Markit
50 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™
45 (PMI™) rose to 50.8 in Aug from 46.9 in
40
Jul. Despite the upturn in output and sales,
35
firms continued to reduce employment and
30
purchasing activity amid efforts to control
Contraction
25
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
costs. Input prices rose sharply again with a
Source: IHS Markit
2019 2020
much more modest rise in output charges.
EXTERNAL TRADE
15.0
Trade surplus dropped 28% to US$2.3 bn in
13.0
Aug from US$3.2 bn in Jul. Exports fell 4.6%
11.0

9.0 US$13.1, imports rose 2.6% to US$10.7 bn. Oil

7.0

5.0
& gas deficit rose 21% to US$0.3 bn, and non-
3.0 oil & gas surplus fell 24% to US$2.7 bn. Over
Jan-Aug, the surplus was US$11.1 bn thanked
1.0

(1.0) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
(3.0) 2019 2020 to US$15.2 bn non-oil & gas surplus that
Export Trade Balance Import
compensated oil & gas deficit of US$4.1 bn.
Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

Non-oil and gas exports and imports

Value 2020 Volume 2020 Average Price 2020
(US$ bn.) (tons) (US$ /tons)
Aug m-t-m Jan-Aug y-o-y Aug m-t-m Jan-Aug y-o-y August m-t-m
Exports 12.5 (4.4%) 97.90 (4.38%) Exports 41,536 (5.8%) 361,410 (11.7%) Exports 301 1.6%
Imports 9.8 3.0% 82.69 (21.9%) Imports 9,055 8.8% 74,388 (4.7%) Imports 1,081 (5.3%)
Balance 2.67 (24.2%) 15.22 479.9% Balance 32,481 (9.0%) 287,022 (12.9%) Price Gap (781) (7.8%)
Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

Top 10 non-oil and gas exports and imports (US$ billion) The decrease in non-oil & gas
Categories of Goods Exports Categories of Goods Imports surplus in Aug was caused by falling
Aug-20 Share Aug-20 Share export volume by 5.8%, while the
1. Animal/Vegetable fat & oil 1.52 12.2% 1. Machinery & electrical 1.7 16.9% average exports price only rose
2. Mineral fuels 1.11 8.9% 2. Plastics & plastic products 0.6 5.6% 1.6%. Top ten exports consisted of a
3. Precious metal & jewelries 0.85 6.8% 3. Iron and steel 0.5 4.8%
balance mix between commodities
and manufacturing goods. They
4. Iron and Steel 0.82 6.6% 4. Cereals 0.2 2.1%
accounted for 45.9% of total.
5. Vehicle and parts 0.50 4.0% 5. Iron and steel products 0.2 2.1%
6. Footwear 0.31 2.5% 6. Food industry wastes 0.2 2.4% The increaase in non-oil & gas
7. Metal ore, crust, and ash 0.31 2.5% 7. Sugar and Candy 0.2 1.7% imports largely was contributed
8. Iron and steel products 0.15 1.2% 8. Precious metal & jewelries 0.2 2.3% by the 8.8% hike in volume, while
9. Tin and tin-based goods 0.12 0.9% 9. Vegetables 0.0 0.3% the average imports price fell 5.3%.
10. Salt, stone, cement 0.04 0.4% 10. Vessel,boat,float struct. 0.1 0.9% Top ten imports accounted for only
TOTAL TOP 10 5.72 45.9% TOTAL TOP 10 3.8 39.1% 39.1% of total, and dominated by
TOTAL EXPORTS 12.46 100.0% TOTAL IMPORTS 9.8 100.0% manufacturing products.
Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

NON-OIL AND GAS EXPORT OIL AND GAS EXPORT IMPORT BY CATEGORY OIL AND GAS IMPORT
(AUG 2020) (AUG 2020) (AUG 2020) (AUG 2020)
AGRICULTURE CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION GOODS CRUDE OIL
US$ 0.34 billion US$ 0.109 billion US$ 1.19 billion US$ 0.22 billion
2.4% M-T-M 9.9% M-T-M 7.3% M-T-M 11.4% M-T-M
MANUFACTURING REFINED OIL INTERMEDIARY GOODS REFINED OIL
US$ 10.7 billion US$ 0.10 billion US$ 7.75 billion US$ 0.57 billion
4.9% M-T-M 32.4% M-T-M 5.0% M-T-M 4.2% M-T-M

MINING GAS CAPITAL GOODS GAS

US$ 1.38 billion US$ 0.39 billion US$ 1.79 billion US$ 0.16 billion
0.3% M-T-M 1.4% M-T-M 8.8% M-T-M 1.6 % M-T-M
Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

PAGE 5 OF 10
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

4. FISCAL AND EXTERNAL DEBT

STATE BUDGET
APBN-P 2020 Realization % of Growth (y-o-y) Budget deficit elevted to Rp330.2 tn over Jan-
Budget Post (Rp trillion) Jan-Jul 2020 budget 2020 2019 Jul and it grew 79.5% (y-o-y). State revenues
A.        Revenues 1,699.9 922.2 54.3% -12.4% 5.8% decreased 12.4%. Tax and non-tax revenues
1. Domestic Revenue 1,698.6 919.8 54.1% -12.6% 6.1% fell 14.7% and 13.5%. State expenditures
a.   Taxes 1,198.8 601.9 50.2% -14.7% 2.7% hiked 1.3%. Yet, expenditures realization was
b.   Import duty and excise 205.7 109.1 53.0% 3.7% 13.2%
still only 40.2% of the target in APBN-P 2020.
Primary balance charted a deficit of Rp147.4
c. Non-tax revenue 294.1 208.8 71.0% -13.5% 14.3%
tn. Budget financing reached Rp503.0 tn and
2. Grant 1.3 2.5 189.2% 561.6% -88.7%
grew 115% compared with only 10% hike in
B.        Expenditures 2,613.9 1,252.4 47.9% 1.3% 7.9%
2019. The excess financing further increased
1. Central Government 1,975.2 793.6 40.2% 4.3% 9.2%
to Rp172.8 tn from Rp158.4 tn in Jan-Jun.
a. Ministries/Govt. Instns. 836.4 419.6 50.2% -0.05% 11.7%

b. Non Ministries/Govt. Instns. 1,138.9 374.0 32.8% 9.5% 6.3% Over Jan-Jul, the government has issued
2. Transf to region & Village Fund 763.9 458.8 60.1% -3.4% 5.9%
Rp513.4 tn state securities, withdrawn Rp5.8
a. Transfer to Region 692.7 410.9 59.3% -5.1% 5.0%
tn domestic and foreign loans, and paid Rp48.8
b. Village Fund 71.2 47.9 67.3% 14.4% 16.8%
tn foreign loans installment. The government
C. Primary Balance (700.4) (147.4) 21.0%
debt reached Rp 5,434.8 tn, consisted of
84.6% securities and 16.4% loans. Debt to
D. Budget Balance (1,039.2) (330.2) 31.8% 79.5% 21.6%
GDP ratio rose to 33.63% from 32.67% in Jun.
E. Budget Financing 1,039.2 503.0 48.4% 115.3% 10.0%
The ratio would continue elevating as budget
F. Excess/Shortage Financing 172.8 248.9% -28.30%
financing realization was still 48.4% of target.
Source: The Ministry of Finance

APBN-P 2020 Realization % of Growth (y-o-y) The realization of tax collection continued on
Type of Tax (Rp trillion) Jan-Jul 2020 budget 2020 2019 a downward trend over Jan-Jul. It fell 14.7%
1. Income Tax 670.4 369.6 55.1% -16.0% 4.7% (y-o-y) compared with the 2.7% growth in
• Non-oil & gas 638.5 349.9 54.8% -13.5% 5.3%
the same period of 2019. The economic
• Oil & gas 31.9 19.8 62.1% -44.3% -1.8%
slowdown - in production, consumption, and
export import - as well as the delivery of tax
2. VAT & Luxury Tax 507.5 219.5 43.2% -12.0% -4.6%
incentives during the Covid-19 pandemic
3. Land & Building Tax & Others 20.9 12.8 61.2% -20.1% 201.8%
caused the contraction of all taxes receipts.
Total 1,198.8 601.9 50.2% -14.7% 2.7%
Income tax of oil and gas dropped the deepest.
Source: The Ministry of Finance

Central Government APBN-P 2020 Realization % of Growth (y-o-y) Central government spending grew 4.3%,
Expenditure (Rp trillion) Jan-Jul 2020 target 2020 2019 lower than the growth in the same period
1. Employee Expenditure 256.6 134.4 52.4% -10.5% 11.7% of 2019. The spending on interest payment
2. Goods Expenditure 271.7 121.4 44.7% -17.0% 10.1% remained the largest and accounted for 23%
3. Capital Expenditure 137.4 46.8 34.1% -3.3% -10.6% of total and grew 15.2% (y-o-y). Spending on
4. Interest Payment 338.8 182.8 54.0% 15.2% 8.3% social assistance grew 55.8%. Expenditures
5. Subsidy 192.0 83.6 43.5% -9.3% 1.0% on employee, goods, capital, and subsidy fell.
6. Social Assistance 170.7 117.0 68.5% 55.8% 33.5% Meanwhile, expenditure on "Others", largely
7. Others 608 107.6 17.7% 18.3% 9.1% to finance programs to handle pandemic and
Total 1,975.2 793.6 40.2% 4.3% 9.2% economic recovery, remained underutilized. It
Source: The Ministry of Finance only reached 17.7% of target, but grew 18.3%.
EXTERNAL DEBT
Public debt grew 2.2% (y-o-y) in Jul, higher than 1.9% in Jun as the result of 2.3% growth of government debt and
the 6.3% decrease in central bank debt. Over the same TOTAL DEBT
period, US$debt
private 409.8 bn.4.8% from 6.9%. The debt of
grew
3.5% Y-O-Y
State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) continued to grow but at lower rate of 14.2% from 20%. Yet, it much higher than
foreign & join venture companies's debt (+8.7%), while private Indonesian companies' debt kept falling by 2.4%.
Public Debt US$ 201.8 bn. Private Debt US$ 207.9 bn.
GOVERNMENT CENTRAL BANK NON-FINANCIAL FINANCIAL
US$ 198.9 billion US$ 2.79 billion INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS
2.3% Y-O-Y 6.3% Y-O-Y US$ 161.9 bilion US$ 46.0 bn.
7.3% Y-O-Y 2.9 Y-O-Y
TOTAL DEBT US$ 409,68 BN.
DEBT TO GDP RATIO 37.3% 3.5% LONG TERM DEBT 89.1% OF TOTAL
Source: Bank Indonesia

PAGE 6 OF 10
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

FIVE-YEAR TRENDS
MACROECONOMY
Inflation (%)
7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

May

Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

May

Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

May

Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

May

Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

May
Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug
-1.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual inflation (%) Monthly inflation (%)

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

16,000 US dollar/Rupiah
15,500

15,000

14,500

14,000

13,500

13,000

12,500

12,000
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Bank Indonesia

Consumers' Perception Indexes

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

-
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul

Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug
Nov

May
Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May

Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May

Sep
Oct

Mar

Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May

Nov
Sep
Oct

Mar

May
Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Current Economy Current Income Job Opportunity Purchasing of Durable Goods

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

6.50%
BI 7-Day Repo Rate

6.00%

5.50%

5.00%

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%
Jul

Jul

Jul
Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug
May

Oct
Nov
Sep

Mar

May

Oct
Nov
Jan

Sep

Mar

May

Oct
Nov
Jan

Sep

Mar

May
Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May
Jan
Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

140,000
Foreign Reserves (US$ million)
135,000

130,000

125,000

120,000

115,000

110,000

105,000

100,000
May

May

May

May
Jan
Feb

Jan

Jan
Mar

Feb

Feb

Jan
Feb
Jun

Mar

Jun

Mar

Jun

Mar

Jun
Sep
Oct

Sep
Oct

Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Apr

Jul

Nov
Dec

Apr

Jul

Nov
Dec

Apr

Sep
Oct
Jul

Nov
Dec

Apr

Jul
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug

2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

PAGE 7 OF 10
Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

BANKING
6,000
Third Party Funds and Outstanding Loans (Rp trillion)

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Third Party Funds Outstanding Loans

Source: Financial Services Authority - OJK

25.00
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
24.00
23.00
22.00
21.00
20.00
19.00
18.00
17.00
16.00
15.00
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Financial Services Authority - OJK

100.00
Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)
98.00

96.00

94.00

92.00

90.00

88.00

86.00

84.00

82.00

80.00
Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Nov

May

Nov

May
Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May

Sep
Oct

Mar

Sep
Oct

Mar

May

Nov
Sep
Oct

Mar

May

Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar
Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb

Dec
Jan
Feb
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Financial Services Authority - OJK

Net Interest Margin (%)

6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Financial Services Authority - OJK

3.50
Non-Performing Loans (Gross, %)

3.00

2.50

2.00
Jun
Jul

Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun

Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Nov

Mar

May

Mar

May

Mar

May

Nov

Mar

May
Sep
Oct

Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Jan

Sep
Oct

Oct
Nov

Mar

May
Jan

Sep

Jan
Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Financial Services Authority - OJK

PAGE 8 OF 10
 US$ billion

11.00
13.00
15.00
17.00
19.00

5.00
7.00
9.00

5.000
5.500
6.000
6.500
7.000
7.500
8.000
8.500
9.000
9.500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000

2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000

100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
Jan
Aug Aug
Jul Sep Feb Aug
Sep
Aug Oct Sep
Mar Oct

2015

Source: investing.com
2015
Sep Oct

Source: Bank Indonesia

2015
Nov Nov

2015
Oct Apr Nov
Dec Dec
Nov May Dec
Jan Jan
Dec Jan
Feb Jun Feb
Jan Feb
Mar

2017
Mar

Source: The Indonesian Stock Exchange

Source: The Indonesian Stock Exchange
Source: The Indonesian Stock Exchange
Feb Jul Mar
Apr Apr
Mar Apr
Trade-off Indonesia

May Aug May

Apr May
Jun Jun
May Sep Jun

2016
Jul

2016

2016
Jun Jul Jul
Aug Oct

2016
Jul Aug Aug
Sep Nov Sep
Aug Sep
Oct Oct
Sep Dec Oct
Nov Nov Nov
Oct
Dec Jan Dec Dec
Nov
Jan Jan Jan
Dec Feb
Feb Feb Feb
Jan Mar
Mar Mar Mar
Feb
Apr Apr Apr Apr
Mar
May May May
Apr May
Jun Jun Jun
May

2017
2017
Jul Jun
2017

Jun Jul Jul

Aug

2018
Aug

2017
Jul Jul Aug
Sep Sep Sep
Aug
Oct Aug Oct
Sep Oct
Nov Sep Nov Nov
Oct

Public Debt
Dec Dec Dec
Nov Oct
Jan Jan
Dec Jan
Feb Nov Feb
Jan Feb
Mar Mar
Feb Dec Mar

PAGE 9 OF 10
Apr Apr
Mar Apr
May Jan May
Apr May
Jun Feb Jun
May Jun
2018

2018
July

EXTERNAL DEBT
July
2018

Jun Mar July

Aug Aug
CAPITAL MARKETS

2018
Jul Aug

Private Debt
Sept Apr Sept
Aug Sep
Oct Oct
Sep May Oct
Nov Nov
Oct Nov
Dec Jun Dec
Nov Dec
Jan

2019
Dec Jan Jul
Feb Jan

External Debts of Public and Priva Sectors

Jan Feb
Aug Mar Feb
Feb Mar
Apr Mar
Mar Apr Sep
Apr

Average yield of 10-year Indonesia's Govt. Bonds

May May
Apr Oct May
Jun Jun
May
2019

Jul Jun

2019
Jul Nov
Price Earning Ratio of Indonesian Stock Exchange (avg. X)

Jun
2019

Aug Jul

2019
Jul Aug Dec Aug
The Indonesian Composite Stock Index (IHSG) - end of month

Sep
Sep
Market Capitalization of Indonesian Stock Exchange (Rp billion)

Aug Oct Sep

Oct Jan
Sep Nov Oct
Oct Nov Feb
Dec Nov
Nov Dec
Mar Jan Dec
Dec Jan
Feb Jan
Jan Feb Apr
2020
Mar Feb
Feb Mar May Apr Mar
Apr
2020

Mar May Apr

Jun

2020
Apr May
2020

Jun

2020
May
May Jun Jul Jul Jun
Jun Jul Aug
Aug Jul
Jul Aug
Aug
THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020
 Trade-off Indonesia THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY • SEPTEMBER | 2020

MANUFACTURING
55
Purchasing Manager Index

50

45

40

35

30

25

20
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: IHS Markit

EXTERNAL TRADE

16.0
Non-oil and Gas Exports-Imports
14.0
12.0
10.0
US$ billion

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Mar

Mar
Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec
Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec

May
Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug
(2.0)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

Non-oil & Gas Exports Non-oil & Gas Imports Balance

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

Manufacturing Exports and Imports (US$ billion)

15.00

13.00

11.00

9.00
US$ billion

7.00

5.00

3.00

1.00
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

Apr

Jun
Jul
Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May

Mar

May

Mar

May

Nov
Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Mar

May
Jan

Sep
Oct
Nov

Jan

Sep
Oct

Mar

May
Jan
Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

(1.00)

(3.00) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Manufacturing Exports Manufacturing Imports Balance

Source: Bank IIndonesia

Oil Exports and Imports (US$ billion)

4.0

3.0

2.0
US$ billion

1.0

0.0
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Mar

Mar
Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec
Feb

May

Mar
Sep

Dec

May
Oct

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

(1.0)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2020
(2.0)

(3.0) Oil exports Oil imports Balance

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

1.5
Gas Exports and Imports (US$ billion)
1.3

1.0
US$ billion

0.8

0.5

0.3

-
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar
Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Sep

Dec

Feb

May

Sep

Dec
Feb

May

Sep

Dec

May
Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul

Oct
Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun

Aug

Nov

Apr

Jun
Jul
Aug

2015 2016 2017 2018 2020

Gas exports Gas imports Balance

Source: The Indonesian Statistics - BPS

PAGE 10 OF 10