From:

Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 10:19 pm

To: Duty Managers informationhbemergency

Cc:

Subject: RE: Cyclone Gabrielle - Forecast 10pm Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023

Sorry, I forgot to include the rainfall site map for reference.

And here are the tides…
 Principal Engineer
06 835 9200 |
Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Te Kaunihera ā-rohe o Te Matau a Māui
159 Dalton Street, Napier 4110 | hbrc.govt.nz
Enhancing Our Environment Together | Te Whakapakari Tahi I Tō Tātau Taiao

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From:
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 10:13 pm
To: Duty Managers informationhbemergency

Cc:
Subject: Cyclone Gabrielle - Forecast 10pm Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

Issued by MetService at 9:14 pm Sunday 12-Feb-2023 {MEDIA} Cyclone Gabrielle to bring widespread
significant severe weather to northern and central parts of New Zealand

Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to move close to the upper North Island during Monday and Tuesday.
Impacts are already being felt across northern parts of the North Island, and are expected to spread
south across the rest of the North Island through to northern parts of the South Island on Monday
and Tuesday.

This will be a widespread and significant weather event. Significant heavy rain and damaging winds
are forecast for many parts of northern and central New Zealand. In addition, large waves, storm
surges and coastal inundation are expected about exposed eastern coasts of the North Island.

There remains some uncertainty associated with the exact track of Cyclone Gabrielle. Changes may
be made in following updates.

===========================
HEAVY RAIN WARNING - ORANGE
===========================
Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible
and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Area: Hawke's Bay

Valid: 24 hours from 10:00 am Monday to 10:00 am Tuesday
Forecast: Expect 250 to 350 mm of rain in the ranges, and possibly up to 450 mm in the Ruahine
Range. Expect 100 to 150 mm away from the ranges. Peak intensities of 10 to 15 mm/h, but 25 to 40
mm/h about the ranges Monday evening and overnight Monday.

Note, a further period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday evening and overnight.

HBRC Summary:
Timing of event has been brought forward a few hours, i.e. heavy rainfall starting Monday morning
in Wairoa area, tapering off by 10 am Tuesday, then a bit more rain on Wed. Larger rivers will still
be high on Wed.

Eastern Wairoa: Rainfall extents have been increased from earlier. Main rainfall in Whareratas –
substantial rainfall up to 300 mm in 24 hours starting Monday before noon. Heaviest rain around
midnight. This is probably greater than 20 year return period, will have quick response in coastal
catchments. Kaiwatau Road, Nuhaka river mouth, Opoho, Ohuia, etc.
Other areas of inland Eastern Wairoa will have rain from Monday to Tuesday, then a short break and
then another short burst on Wed. Smaller rivers will be quite susceptible to flash floods, major
rivers not as much.

Reminder about damaging winds with the rain in exposed places.

Western Wairoa including Waikaremoana – 6 to 9 hours of heavy rain from before Noon
Monday. Lake level to start to rise very early Tuesday. Genesis power shows Lake at 84% full. Will
likely be over 100% later Tuesday.
Bit of a clearing Tuesday at daybreak, then more rain on Tuesday starting just before noon.
Danger for trampers. Need to vacate the area.
Wairoa River – 5 to 10 year event at town. Lower terraces from Frasertown to near railway bridge
may be subject to inundation.
Current river mouth condition is ok.

Esk/Waipatiki/Arapaoanui/Te Ngarue and other coastal areas – substantial rain starting early
Monday to Tuesday, still wet on late Tuesday to Wed. morn.
See Esk flood hazard map below.
Esk Flood Hazard
If rainfall is consistent with forecast, there is likely to be flooding similar to the extents shown on the
flood hazard maps as shown below (this is not actual flooding). Houses on Shaw Road may be at
risk. Could be similar to March 2018.
Campgrounds have already been evacuated.
Heretaunga Plains – rain Monday, heavy Monday night, easing off but carrying on Wed/Thurs. Local
ponding likely. Pump stations likely start to ramp up on Tuesday morning.

Upper and Lower Ngaruroro/Tutaekuri – substantial rain Monday to Tuesday, including another
burst Tuesday. Worst case up to 50 year river levels. Side streams likely to be flash flood prone –
Okawa/Shanley road, Wharerangi, Maraekakaho, Mangaone/Rissington.
Risk of high levels in Ngaruroro – models are showing up to 50 year in the lower reaches. This is
quite dependant on the extent of the rainfall. River rises will likely take place late Monday and into
Tuesday morning. Ngaruroro River mouth susceptible to inundation with combined river flows and
large swells. We’ll provide a more accurate river level forecast during the day on Monday.
Tukituki (including Lower) and Central Hawkes Bay – Substantial rain in ranges, consistent 15mm/hr
from Monday 2pm to midnight, then increasing to 30 mm/hr. Slightly less in the lower plains
(Tikokino, Ongaonga). Substantial totals Up to 500 mm in total, 350 mm in main 24 hour period
from Monday noon to Tuesday noon. Likely to cause >50 year river levels. Consider observations of
erosion on Waipawa at Walker road.
Other areas likely slips, road closures, river bank erosion, debris build up at bridges.

This will likely cause a big rise in the Lower Tukituki from Red Bridge down to the coast. This could
range from 20 year to 50 year return period. Caution needed at the Tukituki river mouth at
Haumoana, combined large easterly swell with high river levels likely to put houses along Grange
Creek at risk.

Reminder about strong winds, possible trees down, power outages.

This is the flood hazard map for Ruataniwha Plains (not existing flooding). If the actual rainfall is
consistent with the predicted rain, many of these areas may experience flooding similar to this map.
Updates to follow on Monday morning.

Regards,

Principal Engineer
06 835 9200 |
Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Te Kaunihera ā-rohe o Te Matau a Māui
159 Dalton Street, Napier 4110 | hbrc.govt.nz
Enhancing Our Environment Together | Te Whakapakari Tahi I Tō Tātau Taiao

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 Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Te Kaunihera ā-rohe o Te Matau a Māui
159 Dalton Street, Napier 4110 | hbrc.govt.nz
Enhancing Our Environment Together | Te Whakapakari Tahi I Tō Tātau Taiao

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__________________________________________________________________________________

From: @hbrc.govt.nz>
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 12:30 pm
To:

Subject:

Met Service just re-issued Orange warning for Hawkes Bay

____________________________________________________________________________

From: @hbrc.govt.nz>
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 12:28 pm
To:
Subject:

Met Service just sent another update - same forecast, so no change. I'll plan to put another update
late Sunday evening after Met Service update, usually around 9-9:30

________________________________________________________________________________

From
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 10:23 am
To: Duty Managers informationhbemergency

Cc:
Subject: RE: Cyclone Gabrielle - Forecast 10am Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

Issued by MetService at 10:06 am Sunday 12-Feb-2023 {MEDIA} Cyclone Gabrielle forecast to bring
severe weather to northern and central parts of New Zealand
===========================
HEAVY RAIN WARNING - ORANGE
===========================

Cyclone Gabrielle is located in the north Tasman Sea and is expected to move close to the upper
North Island during Monday and Tuesday. We expect to see impacts from this Cyclone from Sunday
starting in the north and spreading south to other parts of northern and central New Zealand.

This is expected to be a widespread and significant weather event.

Significant heavy rain and potentially damaging winds are forecast for many parts of northern and
central New Zealand. In addition, large waves, storm surges and coastal inundation are possible
about exposed eastern coasts of the North Island.

Area: Hawke's Bay

Valid: 24 hours from 10:00 am Monday to 10:00 am Tuesday
Forecast: Expect 250 to 350 mm of rain in the ranges, and 100 to 150 mm elsewhere. Peak intensities
of 10 to 15 mm/h, but 20 to 30 mm/h about the ranges Monday evening and overnight Monday.

Note, a further period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday evening and overnight.

Summary for Hawkes Bay:

Eastern Wairoa: Main rainfall in Pukeorapa, Whareratas – substantial at around 250 mm for 24
hours. This is about 5-20 year return period, will have quick response in coastal catchments.
Kaiwatau Road, Nuhaka river mouth, Ohuia, etc.
Other areas of inland Eastern Wairoa will have rain from Monday to Tuesday, then a short break and
then another short burst on Wed.
Western Wairoa including Waikaremoana – 6 to 9 hours of heavy rain from Noon Monday. Lake
level to start to rise very early Tuesday. Genesis power shows Lake at 84% full. Will likely be over
100% later Tuesday. Danger for trampers. Need to vacate the area.
Wairoa River – 5 to 10 year event at town. Lower terraces from Frasertown to near railway bridge
may be subject to inundation.
Current river mouth condition is ok.

Esk/Waipatiki and other coastal areas – substantial rain Monday to Tuesday, still wet on
Wed/Thurs. Consider vacating Esk holiday park and any other at risk areas.
Heretaunga Plains – rain Monday, heavy Monday night, easing off but carrying on Wed/Thurs. Local
ponding likely. Pump stations likely start to ramp up on Tuesday morning.

Upper and Lower Ngaruroro/Tutaekuri – substantial rain Monday to Tuesday, including another
burst Tuesday. Worst case up to 50 year river levels. Side streams likely to be flash flood prone –
Okawa/Shanley road, Wharerangi, Maraekakaho, Mangaone/Rissington.
Risk of high levels in Ngaruroro – still too early to predict accurately. Range is still between 5 year
and 50 year. Forecast rainfall map below shows widespread rain early Tuesday morning
(1am). River rises will likely take place Tuesday morning.
Tukituki and Central Hawkes Bay – substantial rain in ranges, up to 500 mm in total, 350 mm in main
24 hour period from Monday noon to Tuesday noon. Likely to cause >50 year river levels. Consider
observations of erosion on Waipawa at Walker road.
Other areas likely slips, road closures, river bank erosion, debris build up at bridges.

Updates to follow late Sunday afternoon.

Regards,
This communication, including any attachments, is confidential. If you are not

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Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail

From: @hbrc.govt.nz>
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 09:02
To: @hbemergency.govt.nz>
Cc: @hbrc.govt.nz>; @hbrc.govt.nz>;
@hbrc.govt.nz>
Subject: Re: Preliminary (Pre Met Service) Cyclone Gabrielle - Forecast 10am Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023

Note that I have passed on info re hohepa to Neil Kirton re consideration to evacuate as they need
as much warning as possible

Also consider Waipatiki motor camp- was packed yesterday?!?

Sent from my iPhone

Group Manager - Asset Management

06 835 9200 |
Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Te Kaunihera ā-rohe o Te Matau a Māui
159 Dalton Street, Napier 4110 | hbrc.govt.nz
Enhancing Our Environment Together | Te Whakapakari Tahi I Tō
Tātau Taiao

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On 12 Feb 2023, at 8:59 am, @hbemergency.govt.nz> wrote:
Thanks

My initial intentions is to keep ECC and EOCs at monitoring today with an escalation
to Coordinating tomorrow morn first thing.

I will also be handing over the Group Controller responsibilities to so I can

focus on managing the ECC.

Cheers

Team Leader Operational Readiness

Hawke's Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group

Te Rākau Whakamarumaru ki Te Matau a Māui

Location: 309 Lyndon Road East | Hastings 4122

Postal: 159 Dalton Street | Private Bag 6006 | Napier 4142

Phone:

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Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail

From: @hbrc.govt.nz>
Sent: Sunday, 12 February 2023 08:51
To: @hbrc.govt.nz>; @hbemergency.govt.nz>
Cc: @hbrc.govt.nz>
Subject: Preliminary (Pre Met Service) Cyclone Gabrielle - Forecast 10am Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
Just a heads up that if Met Service forecast stays as it is, this will be a substantial event, arriving
earlier than previous predictions.

Very briefly as a starting point:

Heavy rain starting 1pm Monday, continuing to noon Tuesday. 250 – 300 mm in ranges, 100-150
mm on plains

Wairoa – 5yr to 10yr at river mouth. Way more rain up above Waikaremoana – Tramper safety,
Tuhoi notifications. Rain mainly in Western catchment.

Waipatiki to Esk – +50 year rainfall. Likely require Esk holiday park evacuation. Check if anyone in
Hukarere Girls School

Heretaunga Plains – substantial surface ponding likely.

Ngaruroro/Tutaekuri – High risk at places like Mangaone/Rissington, Okawa/Shanley

road, Maraekakaho, and any small stream with short time of concentration.
Worst case for NG/TK up to 50 year on Tuesday. Concern for Hohepa at river mouth. What advance
time do they need for evacuation?

UTT – 50 to 100 year in main rivers, including down to Red Bridge. Still too early to tell for Red
Bridge.

Southern Coast – no significant issues.

Bearing in mind that no rain has fallen here yet, but it is raining in Auckland/Coromandel.

This could change substantially if Met Service alter their prediction.

Principal Engineer
06 835 9200
<ATT00001.png> Hawke's Bay Regional Council | Te Kaunihera ā-rohe o Te Matau a Māui
159 Dalton Street, Napier 4110 | hbrc.govt.nz
Enhancing Our Environment Together | Te Whakapakari Tahi I Tō
Tātau Taiao
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