Bloomberg 硅谷银行只是冰山一角,华尔街质疑新危机到来 20230310

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Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank Fallout

Sparks Wall/s Street Fears of Crisis


bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/one-bank-folds-another-wobbles-and-
wall-street-asks-if-it-s-a-crisis

One Bank Folds, Another Wobbles and Wall


Street Asks If It’s a Crisis

一家银行倒闭,另一家摇摆不定,华尔街质疑这是
否是一场危机

More lenders are struggling to keep deposits


from fleeing 更多的银行正在努力防止存款外

‘Silicon Valley Bank is just the tip of the


iceberg’ “硅谷银行只是冰山一角”

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Silicon Valley Bank headquarters in Santa Clara,
California.
加州圣克拉拉的硅谷银行总部。
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg 摄影:
David Paul Morris/彭博社

2023年3月10日 GMT+8 上午10:22

Silvergate Capital Corp.’s abrupt shutdown and


SVB Financial Group’s hasty fundraising have
sent US bank stocks diving and tongues wagging
across the industry: Could this be the start of a
much bigger problem?

Silvergate Capital Corp 的突然关门以及 SVB


Financial Group 的仓促融资,使得美国银行类股
纷纷下跌,整个行业议论纷纷: 这会不会是一个更
大问题的开端?

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The issue at both of the once-highflying
California lenders was an unusually fickle base of
depositors who yanked money quickly. But
below that is a crack reaching across finance:
Rising interest rates have left banks laden with
low-interest bonds that can’t be sold in a hurry
without losses. So if too many customers tap
their deposits at once, it risks a vicious cycle.

这两家曾经风光无限的加利福尼亚银行的问题在
于,它们的存款基础异常反复无常,而且迅速撤
资。但在这之下是一条贯穿整个金融业的裂缝: 不
断上升的利率让银行背负了大量低息债券,这些
债券不能在匆忙之中出售,否则就会遭受损失。
因此,如果有太多的客户同时动用他们的存款,
就会面临恶性循环的风险。

Across the investing world, “people are asking


who is the next one?” said Jens Nordvig, founder
of market analytics and data intelligence
companies Exante Data and Market Reader. “I
am getting lots of questions about this from my
clients.”

在整个投资界,“人们都在问谁是下一个?”市场分
析和数据情报公司 Exante Data 和 Market
Reader 的创始人延斯•诺德维格(Jens Nordvig)表
示。“我的客户对此提出了很多问题。”

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Indeed, amid deposit withdrawals at SVB, its
chief executive officer urged customers on
Thursday to “stay calm.”

事实上,在 SVB 提取存款的过程中,其首席执行


官周四敦促客户“保持冷静”

The immediate risk for many banks may not be


existential, according to analysts, but it could
still be painful. Rather than facing a major run
on deposits, banks will be forced to compete
harder for them by offering higher interest
payments to savers. That would erode what
banks earn on lending, slashing earnings.

分析师表示,对许多银行来说,眼前的风险可能
不是生死攸关的,但仍可能是痛苦的。银行不会
面临存款的大规模挤兑,而是将被迫通过向储户
支付更高的利息来更加激烈地争夺存款。这将侵
蚀银行的贷款收入,削减收益。

Small- and mid-sized banks, where funding is


usually less diversified, may come under
particular pressure, forcing them to sell more
stock and dilute current investors.

中小型银行的融资通常不那么多样化,它们可能
面临特别大的压力,迫使它们出售更多股票,稀
释现有投资者的权益。

‘Terrible Kicking’

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“可怕的踢”

“Silicon Valley Bank is just the tip of the


iceberg,” said Christopher Whalen, chairman of
Whalen Global Advisors, a financial consulting
firm. “I’m not worried about the big guys but a
lot of the small guys are going to take a terrible
kicking,” he said. “Many of them will have to
raise equity.”

“硅谷银行只是冰山一角,”金融咨询公司 Whalen
Global Advisors 董事长克里斯托弗•惠伦
(Christopher Whalen)表示。“我不担心那些大个
子,但是很多小个子会被踢得很惨,”他说。“其中
许多公司将不得不进行股权融资。”

Every bank in the S&P 500 Financials Index


tracking major US firms slumped on Thursday,
taking the benchmark down 4.1% — its worst day
since mid-2020. Santa Clara-based SVB tumbled
60%, while First Republic Bank in San Francisco
fell 17%.

追踪美国主要公司的标准普尔500金融股指数(S &
P 500 Financial Index)中的所有银行股周四全线
下挫,导致该指数下跌4.1% ,为2020年年中以来
最大单日跌幅。总部位于圣克拉拉的 SVB 下跌
60% ,而旧金山的第一共和银行(First Republic
Bank)下跌17% 。

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SVB Races to Avoid Bank Run as Funds Advise
Pulling Cash SVB 竞相避免银行挤兑,因为基金建议
提取现金
1:21 1分21秒
WATCH: Panic spread in tech circles about the
financial health of Silicon Valley Bank as the firm
said Thursday it was holding a $2.25 billion share
sale after a significant loss on its portfolio. 观察: 硅
谷银行的财务状况在科技界引发恐慌,该公司周四表
示,在其投资组合遭受重大损失后,将以22.5亿美元
的价格出售股票
Source: Bloomberg 来源: 彭博社

Another S&P index tracking mid-size financials


dropped 4.7%. The worse performer there was
Beverly Hills-based PacWest Bancorp, down
25%.

另一个跟踪中型金融企业的标准普尔指数下跌
4.7% ,表现最差的是总部位于比佛利山庄的
PacWest Bancorp,下跌25% 。

Ironically, many equity investors had piled into


financial stocks to ride out the Federal Reserve’s
interest-rate hikes, betting it would pave the way
for lenders to earn more. For them, this week has
been a shock.
 
具有讽刺意味的是,许多股票投资者曾大举买入
金融类股,以安然度过美联储(Fed)加息的难关,
押注这将为银行赚取更多利润铺平道路。对他们
来说,这个星期是一个震惊。
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“The cost of deposits rising is old news, we’ve
seen that pressure,” said Chris Marinac, an
analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. But
suddenly “the market has really focused on it
because there’s an obvious surprise with the
capital raise from Silicon Valley Bank.”

Janney 蒙哥马利·史考特分析师克里斯•马里纳克
(Chris Marinac)表示: “存款成本上升已经是老新
闻了,我们已经看到了这种压力。”。但突然之
间,“市场真正关注这个问题,因为硅谷银行
(Silicon Valley Bank)的融资显然出人意料。”

Read More About the Meltdown of Bank Stocks: 了解更多


关于银行股崩溃的信息:

Wall Street’s Favorite Trade Is Hammered 华尔街最受


欢迎的交易被重击
SVB Has Record Drop on Client Cash Crunch SVB 在
客户现金危机中创下历史新低
Thiel Fund Advises Companies to Exit SVB 泰尔基金建
议企业退出 SVB
Bank Bonds Weaken as SVB Shores Up Capital 由于
SVB 支撑资本,银行债券走弱

SVB announced the stock offering as its clients —


firms backed by venture capital — withdrew
deposits after burning through their funding.
The lender liquidated substantially all of the
securities available for sale in its portfolio and
updated a forecast for the year to include a
sharper decline in net interest income.
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SVB 宣布上市之际,其客户ーー得到风险资本支
持的公司ーー在耗尽资金后提取存款。该贷款机
构对其投资组合中可出售的所有证券进行了大量
清算,并更新了当年的预测,其中包括净利息收
入更大幅度的下降。

Greg Becker
Photographer: Lauren Justice/Bloomberg 摄影: Lauren
Justice/彭博社

Hours after CEO Greg Becker urged clients to


“stay calm” on a conference call Thursday, news
broke that a number of prominent venture
capital firms, including Peter Thiel’s Founders
Fund, were advising portfolio companies to pull
money as a precaution.

在首席执行官格雷格 · 贝克尔(Greg Becker)周四


在电话会议上敦促客户“保持冷静”几小时后,有
消息称,包括彼得 · 蒂尔(Peter Thiel)的创始人基
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金(Founders Fund)在内的一些知名风险投资公
司,正建议投资组合中的公司撤资以防万一。

At Silvergate the problem was a run on deposits


that began last year, when clients —
cryptocurrency ventures — withdrew cash to
weather the collapse of the FTX digital-asset
exchange. After losses from rapidly selling
securities, the firm announced plans Wednesday
to wind down operations and liquidate.

在 Silvergate,问题在于去年开始的存款挤兑,当
时客户ーー加密货币企业ーー提取现金,以抵御
FTX 数字资产交易所的崩溃。在因迅速出售证券
而蒙受损失后,该公司周三宣布了逐步结束业务
并进行清算的计划。

US bank stocks also came under pressure this


week after KeyCorp warned about the mounting
pressure to reward savers. The regional lender
lowered its forecast for growing net interest
income in the current fiscal year to 1% to 4%,
down from 6% to 9%, because of the
“competitive pricing environment.” Its stock fell
7% on Thursday.

美国银行类股本周也面临压力,此前 KeyCorp 警
告称,银行奖励储户的压力越来越大。由于“竞争
性定价环境”,该地区贷款机构将本财年净利息收
入增长预期从6% 下调至4% 该公司股价周四下跌
7% 。
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‘More Insulated’

“更加绝缘”

Regulators talk openly about spending less time


policing the balance sheets of small banks, giving
them room to innovate, with some dabbling in
financial-technology platforms or
cryptocurrencies.
 
监管机构公开谈论减少花在监管小银行资产负债
表上的时间,给它们创新的空间,其中一些涉足
金融技术平台或加密货币。

Authorities have instead devoted much of their


time and attention since the 2008 financial crisis
to ensuring the stability of large “systemically
important” banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.
and Bank of America Corp.

相反,自2008年金融危机以来,有关当局已将大
部分时间和精力投入到确保摩根大通和美国银行
(Bank of America)等“具有系统重要性”的大型银
行的稳定上。

They’ve forced the biggest lenders to hold ever-


larger amounts of capital aside — sometimes
over the loud complaints of bankers — so that
their health would be beyond reproach at
moments like this. Smaller lenders by contrast

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have been handled with “a very light-touch
approach,” Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for
supervision, said during a speech Thursday.

他们迫使最大的贷款机构把越来越多的资金放在
一边(有时是因为银行家的大声抱怨) ,这样在这
种时候,他们的健康状况就不会受到指责。美联
储负责监管的副主席迈克尔•巴尔(Michael Barr)
周四在一次讲话中表示,相比之下,小型贷款机
构的处理方式是“非常温和的”。

“There are obviously larger institutions that are


also exposed to these risks too, but the exposure
tends to be a very small part of their balance
sheet,” he said. “So even if they experience the
same deposit outflows, they are more insulated.”

他表示: “显然,也有一些规模较大的机构也面临
这些风险,但这些风险在它们的资产负债表中所
占比例往往非常小。”。“因此,即使它们经历了
同样的存款外流,它们也更加不受影响。”

— With assistance by Sridhar Natarajan

在 Sridhar Natarajan 的协助下

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