2018FA MAT152 Test2AKEY 1

MAT 152 Test 2A 2018FA 90 minutes Print full name:______KEY______________
Show work for possible partial credit. Use Excel, but clearly write your answers on this paper. No other
software or technology is permitted. Internet, email, cell phones, and flash drives are not allowed. Use concise
language and correct grammar if you are asked to explain or justify your answer. Do not round until the very
end of your calculations. If you round at the end, use four decimal places.
1. A longitudinal study tracked the cohabitation and marriage status of a random sample of 150 couples in the
U.K. At the end of 10 years, it was determined whether or not the couple had divorced. The table below
summarizes the results.
Divorced Still Married Total
Cohabitated before marriage 58 42 100
Did not cohabitate before marriage 18 32 50
Total 76 74 150
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected couple from this group divorced? (3pt)
P(Divorce) = 76/150 = 0.5067
b. Given that a couple from this group cohabitated before marriage, what is the probability they divorced?
(3pt)
P(Divorce | cohabit) = 58/100 = 0.5800
c. Based on the results of this study, does divorce rate depend on whether or not a couple cohabitated
before marriage? Explain your answer in 1-2 sentences based on the data in the table. (4pt)
Yes, they are dependent. The probability of divorce among those who cohabitated before marriage
(0.58) is higher than the overall probability of divorce (0.5067). Knowing they cohabited before
marriage changes the probability of selecting a couple who divorced.
(The same comparison can be made of divorce versus divorce among those who did not cohabitate, but we
already found the probabilities for the previous argument in parts a and b)
d. What is the probability that a randomly selected couple from this study either cohabitated before
marriage or divorced? (3pt)
P(cohabit OR divorce) = 100/150 + 76/150 – 58/150 = 0.7867
e. Two couples from this study are randomly selected (without replacement). What is the probability both
couples were still married? (3pt)
P(Married AND Married) = P(Married)*P(Married | Married) = (74/150)*(73/149) = 0.2417
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2. You are planning a camping trip for a few weeks away. Currently, the weather forecast for the three days of
your trip gives a 20% chance of rain on each day. Assuming the days are independent, answer the following
questions.
a. What is the probability it rains all three days? (3pt)
P(RRR) = (0.20)* (0.20)* (0.20) = 0.008
b. What is the probability it rains on none of the days? (3pt)

N = No Rain, P(N) = 1-0.20 = 0.80
P(NNN) = (0.80)* (0.80)* (0.80) = 0.512
c. What is the probability it rains at least one day? (4pt)

P(At least 1 R) = 1 – P(No Rain any day) = 1 – 0.512 = 0.488
3. A cell phone repairman collects data for the 20 days he works in one month. He counts the number of
screens he repairs per day. The data is listed in the table below.
Number of 0 1 2 3 4
Screens, x
Frequency 2 8 5 3 2
Probability of x,
0.1 0.4 0.25 0.15 0.1
P(x)
a. Fill in the “Probability of x, P(x)” row for the table above. (3pt)
b. Comment in one to two sentences why this is a valid probability distribution. (3pt)
The variable, x, is quantitative. The probabilities are all between 0 and 1 and sum to exactly 1.
c. What is the probability on a randomly selected day he repaired 3 or more screens? (4pt)
P(x > 3) = P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) = 0.15 + 0.1 = 0.25
d. What is the mean number of screens per day he repaired in this month? (4pt)
Mean = expected value = sum of x*p(x) = 0 + 0.4 + 0.5 + 0.45 + 0.4 = 1.75
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4. A dietician believes that adults in the U.S. today consume more caffeine than in recent years. The most
recent study she could find was conducted in 2015, and said that the mean caffeine consumption for adults in
the U.S. is 400 mg with a standard deviation of 85 mg. She designs a new study to compare current
consumption to consumption in 2015, and measures caffeine intake for a random sample of 287 U.S. adults.
a. Explain in one sentence why we can use the Central Limit Theorem to describe the sampling
distribution of sample means for this sample. (4pt)
The sample size is large (greater than 30), so one of the two conditions of the CLT is met.
b. If repeated samples are taken of 287 U.S. adults, what is the mean of the sample means for those
samples? (3pt)
The mean of the population = the mean of the sample means = 400 mg
c. If repeated samples are taken of 287 U.S. adults, what is the standard deviation of the sample means
(also called the standard error of the mean)? (3pt)
σ 85
= ≈ 5.017
The standard error = √ n √ 287 mg
d. The dietician found a sample mean of 415 mg in her study. What is the probability of seeing a sample
mean of 415 mg or more? (4pt)
P( X́ > 415)= 1 – NORM.DIST(415,400,85/sqrt(287),TRUE) = 0.0014
e. Does the study provide evidence that the dietician is correct in believing that adults consume more
caffeine now than they did in 2015? Explain in 2-3 sentences using your results from part (d) above, as
though you were talking to someone who has never taken statistics. (5pt)
The study does provide evidence that adults consume more caffeine now. The sample mean found by
the dietician is significantly higher than the mean from 2015. If the mean truly is 400mg, the probability
of randomly selecting a sample with a mean as large as 415mg is extremely unlikely (much less than
5%). This suggests that the mean may no longer be 400mg as previously assumed.
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5. Jess is working on the following question for his statistics homework.
“In North America, 25% of cars are white. A random sample of 8 cars is taken from a large parking
garage. What is the probability 3 or fewer cars are white?”
Jess approaches puts down his work as follows:
NORM.DIST(3,2,1.22474,true) = 0.7929
a. There is something wrong with Jess’s answer. Explain what is wrong as though you were trying to help
Jess see his mistake. (5pt)
Jess is treating this variable as if it were continuous when it is discrete (number of cars). He should
not be using a Normal distribution (no information provided indicates the distribution is normal). This
is binomial.
b. What is the correct answer to the problem Jess is working on? Give the correct Excel code and the
probability. (4pt)
P(X > 3) = BINOM.DIST.RANGE(8, 0.25, 0, 3) = 0.8862
6. The weight of beef used in hamburgers at a certain restaurant is normally distributed with a mean of 6 oz.
with a standard deviation of 0.4 oz. Let x be the weight of beef in one randomly selected hamburger. Find the
following probabilities.
a. P(x < 5 oz) (3pt)
=NORM.DIST(5, 6, 0.4, TRUE) = 0.0062
b. P(x > 5.5 oz) (3pt)

=1 – NORM.DIST(5.5, 6, 0.4, TRUE) = 0.8944
c. P(6 < x < 7 oz) (4pt)

=NORM.DIST(7, 6, 0.4, TRUE) – NORM.DIST(6, 6, 0.4, TRUE) = 0.4938
d. The owner of the restaurant does not want to accidentally use too much beef in the hamburgers
because they may run out. She decides that all hamburger patties weighing in the top 5% should be
remade. What is the cutoff for the top 5% of weights? (4pt)
P(X > x) = 0.05 (are to right)
x = NORM.INV(1-0.05, 6, 0.4) = 6.6579 oz
e. The owner also decides that if the hamburger patties are too small, customers may notice and get
angry. She decides that hamburger patties weighing in the bottom 10% may be noticeably small and
should be remade. What is the cutoff for the bottom 10% of weights?
(4pt)
P(X < x) = 0.10 (area to left)
x = NORM.INV(0.10, 6, 0.4) = 5.4874 oz
Page 5 of 5
7. A particular farm in North Carolina sends 24% of its cucumbers to be turned into pickle relish. On a
particular morning, a random sample of 75 cucumbers are selected to be inspected by hand.
a. What is probability at least 30 of these cucumbers will be sent to be turned into pickle relish after being
inspected? (3pt)
X = # cucumbers sent ~ Bin(75, 0.24)
P(X > 30) = BINOM.DIST.RANGE(75, 0.24, 30, 75) = 0.0015
b. What is the mean number of cucumbers from a sample of 75 that will be sent to be turned into pickle
relish? (3pt)
E(X) = np = 75*0.24 = 18
c. What is the standard deviation for a sample of 75 cucumbers that will be sent to be turned into pickle
relish? (3pt)
SD(X) = SQRT(npq) = SQRT(75*0.24*0.76) = 3.6987
d. Only 12 cucumbers from this sample are sent to be turned into pickle relish. Is this a surprisingly low
number? Explain your answer using appropriate mathematics. (5pt)
A value is significantly low if it falls more than 2 standard deviations below the mean.
18 – 2*3.6987 = 10.6027
It is not surprising if 12 cucumbers are sent to be turned into pickle relish.
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MAT 152 Test 2A 2018FA 90 minutes Print full name:KEY________

Cohabitated before marriage 58 42 100

Did not cohabitate before marriage 18 32 50

b. What is the probability it rains on none of the days? (3pt)

P(NNN) = (0.80)* (0.80)* (0.80) = 0.512

c. What is the probability it rains at least one day? (4pt)

P(x > 3) = P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) = 0.15 + 0.1 = 0.25

P( X́ > 415)= 1 – NORM.DIST(415,400,85/sqrt(287),TRUE) = 0.0014

b. P(x > 5.5 oz) (3pt)

c. P(6 < x < 7 oz) (4pt)

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