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Markets For The Week Ending September 9, 2011: Monetary Policy
Markets For The Week Ending September 9, 2011: Monetary Policy
Markets For The Week Ending September 9, 2011: Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
weekly change
YTD change
1yr forward (OIS)
North American
Bond Yields
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change from 52wk high
change from 52wk low
Credit Spreads
September 9, 2011
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
(0.33)
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.13
0.01
(0.04)
(0.04)
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.50
(0.34)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
(0.13)
0.25
0.25
(0.25)
GoC 2yr
GoC 5yr
GoC 10yr
GoC 30yr
RRB BEIR
0.79
0.95
1.59
1.68
1.94
0.79
(0.17)
(0.81)
(0.90)
(1.16)
-
1.29
1.48
2.33
2.42
2.90
1.29
(0.19)
(1.04)
(1.13)
(1.61)
-
2.11
2.30
3.11
3.12
3.50
2.11
(0.19)
(1.00)
(1.01)
(1.39)
-
2.81
2.96
3.55
3.53
3.87
2.81
(0.15)
(0.74)
(0.72)
(1.06)
-
2.11
2.18
2.52
2.41
2.70
2.11
(0.07)
(0.41)
(0.31)
(0.60)
-
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change from 52wk high
change from 52wk low
0.90
0.88
0.73
0.67
0.90
0.64
0.02
0.17
0.23
0.26
0.93
0.91
0.81
0.80
0.94
0.73
0.02
0.12
0.13
(0.02)
0.20
1.03
1.01
0.82
0.78
1.03
0.72
0.03
0.22
0.25
0.31
International 10yr
Rates
Swiss
UK
Germany
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change
h
from
f
52
52wkk high
hi h
change from 52wk low
1.01
0.98
1.73
1.72
2.16
0.87
0.02
(0.73)
(0.71)
(1.15)
(1 15)
0.14
2.26
2.44
3.38
3.40
3.88
2.26
(0.18)
(1.12)
(1.14)
(1.62)
(1 62)
-
1.77
2.01
3.03
2.96
3.49
1.77
(0.24)
(1.25)
(1.19)
(1.72)
(1 72)
-
China
China
Bank of Royal Bank Rediscount
Reserve
Japan of Australia
Rate Requirement Brazil SELIC
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.03
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
(1.24)
2.25
2.25
2.25
2.25
-
21.50
21.50
21.50
18.50
3.00
12.00
12.00
12.25
10.75
1.25
US 3mth
US 2yr
US 5yr
US 10yr
US 30yr
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.13
0.17
(0.01)
(0.01)
(0.01)
(0.12)
(0.16)
0.02
0.17
0.20
0.46
0.60
0.85
0.17
(0.03)
(0.29)
(0.43)
(0.68)
-
0.80
0.86
1.76
2.01
2.40
0.80
(0.06)
(0.96)
(1.20)
(1.60)
-
1.92
1.99
3.16
3.30
3.74
1.92
(0.07)
(1.24)
(1.38)
(1.82)
-
3.25
3.30
4.37
4.34
4.77
3.25
(0.05)
(1.12)
(1.09)
(1.52)
-
long BC
long MB
0.88
0.86
0.76
0.74
0.89
0.65
0.02
0.12
0.15
(0.01)
0.23
0.90
0.88
0.76
0.73
0.91
0.65
0.02
0.14
0.17
(0.01)
0.25
France
Italy
Spain
Portugal
2.48
2.76
3.41
3.36
3.78
2.48
(0.28)
(0.93)
(0.88)
(1.30)
(1 30)
-
5.41
5.28
4.88
4.82
6.20
3.73
0.12
0.53
0.59
(0 79)
(0.79)
1.68
5.16
5.12
5.45
5.45
6.32
3.98
0.03
(0.29)
(0.30)
(1 16)
(1.16)
1.17
11.14
10.27
10.90
6.60
13.38
5.53
0.87
0.24
4.54
(2 25)
(2.25)
5.61
1.03
1.01
0.87
0.87
1.03
0.79
0.02
0.15
0.15
0.24
long NB
1.03
1.00
0.86
0.87
1.03
0.78
0.02
0.16
0.16
0.25
long NS
Moody's
Moody's
Corp Avg - Corp BBB US 10s
AAA
1.01
0.98
0.84
0.85
1.01
0.77
0.02
0.17
0.16
0.24
2.71
2.60
2.29
2.15
2.78
2.03
0.11
0.42
0.57
(0.07)
0.68
1.13
1.07
0.76
1.10
1.16
0.74
0.06
0.37
0.03
(0.03)
0.39
Greece
Japan
Australia
20.56
18.28
16.34
12.47
20.56
8.78
2.27
4.22
8.08
11.77
1.01
1.03
1.14
1.13
1.36
0.85
(0.03)
(0.14)
(0.12)
(0
(0.35)
35)
0.16
4.27
4.41
5.21
5.55
5.75
4.21
(0.14)
(0.94)
(1.28)
(1 48)
(1.48)
0.05
September 9, 2011
U.S.
U.K.
Germany
France
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change from 52wk high
change from 52wk low
50
52
50
42
65
36
0
0
8
(15)
14
80
76
61
72
88
48
4
19
8
(8)
32
84
78
43
58
87
32
6
41
26
(3)
53
180
172
80
101
187
62
9
100
79
(7)
118
Risk
VIX
TED
LIBOR-OIS
OIS-Tbill
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change from 52wk high
change from 52wk low
39
34
17
18
48
15
5
22
21
(9)
24
Currencies
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
Commodities
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
h
YTD change
0.33
0.31
0.23
0.18
0.33
0.13
0.02
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.26
0.24
0.13
0.12
0.26
0.10
0.01
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.07
0.07
0.11
0.06
0.12
0.00
(0.03)
0.02
(0.05)
0.07
US$ / euro
US$ / GBP
Italy
467
397
171
238
467
127
69
296
228
340
Spain
Portugal
413
391
270
350
430
197
21
143
63
(17)
216
1,136
976
745
500
1,208
320
161
391
637
(72)
816
0.83
0.71
0.20
0.41
0.83
0.14
0.12
0.63
0.42
0.69
2,862
2,857
2,869
2,423
2,882
2,298
5
(7)
439
(20)
564
Greece
Japan
China
3,400
2,331
1,952
1,074
3,400
666
1,069
1,447
2,326
2,734
111
105
91
72
118
53
6
20
38
(7)
58
119
114
85
69
119
53
5
33
50
(0)
66
Baltic Dry
2,073
2,073
1,972
2,004
2,077
1,866
101
69
(4)
207
1,838
1,740
1,413
1,773
2,995
1,043
5.6%
30.1%
3.7%
-38.6%
76.2%
US$ / AU$
yuan () /
US$
6.39
6.38
6.46
6.61
6.77
6.38
0.01
(0.08)
(0.22)
4,195
4,243
4,608
4,745
4,971
3,986
-1.1%
-9.0%
9.0%
-11.6%
-15.6%
5.2%
55.1
54.4
58.1
60.7
62.2
51.5
1.2%
-5.2%
5.2%
-9.2%
-11.4%
7.0%
Bloomberg / C$ Effective
JPM Asia-$ Exchange
index
Rate
C$ / US$
US$ index
()
()
CH / US$
yen () /
US$
0.997
0.985
0.963
0.998
1.037
0.943
0.01
0.03
(0.00)
77.19
74.76
74.30
79.03
82.70
72.93
2.44
2.89
(1.84)
1.37
1.42
1.45
1.34
1.48
1.27
(0.05)
(0.08)
0.03
1.59
1.62
1.61
1.56
1.67
1.54
(0.03)
(0.02)
0.03
0.88
0.79
0.84
0.94
1.02
0.72
0.10
0.04
(0.05)
77.61
76.80
80.56
81.12
85.86
76.55
0.81
(2.95)
(3.51)
1.047
1.065
1.072
1.023
1.102
0.927
(0.02)
(0.03)
0.02
118.4
119.6
118.9
116.5
120.2
113.0
(1.25)
(0.46)
1.93
119.3
120.6
122.7
120.2
125.0
115.7
(1.27)
(3.34)
(0.92)
CRB US
Spot Raw
Industrials
WTI Crude
Oil Spot
Price
Oil Futures
Gold
Silver
Copper
US Regular
Average Gas
Nickel Natural Gas
Price
CRB Food
334.2
338.1
338.1
332.8
370.6
275.1
-1.1%
-1.1%
1 1%
0.4%
87.24
86.45
95.42
91.38
113.93
72.66
0.9%
-8.6%
8 6%
-4.5%
87.24
86.45
96.50
94.42
114.82
79.67
0.9%
-9.6%
9 6%
-7.6%
1,856
1,883
1,500
1,421
1,900
1,246
-1.4%
23.7%
23 7%
30.6%
41.47
43.25
34.69
30.91
48.44
19.89
-4.1%
19.5%
19 5%
34.2%
409.8
416.4
427.8
448.2
466.5
347.2
-1.6%
-4.2%
4 2%
-8.6%
1,016
1,020
1,091
1,177
1,362
978
-0.4%
-6.9%
6 9%
-13.7%
3.92
3.87
4.37
4.41
4.85
3.29
1.1%
-10.5%
10 5%
-11.1%
3.67
3.63
3.57
3.05
3.97
2.68
1.3%
22.8%
8%
20.4%
496.9
501.8
484.6
440.3
513.6
399.9
-1.0%
2.5%
2 5%
12.9%
International
Equities
September 9, 2011
S&P/TSX S&P/TSX 60
12,388
12,602
13,301
13,443
14,271
11,671
-1.7%
-6.9%
-7.9%
-13.2%
6.1%
706
719
764
769
819
666
-1.8%
-7.6%
-8.2%
-13.8%
5.9%
1,154
1,174
1,321
1,258
1,364
1,110
-1.7%
-12.6%
-8.2%
-15.4%
4.0%
10,992
11,240
12,414
11,578
12,811
10,463
-2.2%
-11.5%
-5.1%
-14.2%
5.1%
Nasdaq
KBW Bank
index
Russell
Large-Cap
Russell
Small-Cap
Russell
Large-Cap
Value
Russell
Large-Cap
Growth
2,468
2,480
2,774
2,653
2,874
2,242
-0.5%
-11.0%
-7.0%
-14.1%
10.1%
36.2
37.0
48.3
52.2
55.6
35.1
-2.1%
-25.0%
-30.6%
-34.9%
3.2%
639
649
734
697
758
611
-1.6%
-13.0%
-8.3%
-15.8%
4.6%
674
683
827
784
865
636
-1.4%
-18.5%
-14.0%
-22.1%
5.9%
569
580
669
639
694
552
-1.7%
-14.9%
-10.9%
-17.9%
3.2%
542
550
610
575
629
494
-1.5%
-11.0%
-5.7%
-13.8%
9.9%
MSCI
Emerging
Markets
FTSE 100
Nikkei 225
Shenzen
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
change from 52wk high
change from 52wk low
3,880
4,016
4,531
4,290
4,707
3,793
-3.4%
-14.4%
-9.6%
-17.6%
2.3%
4,553
4,816
5,505
5,226
5,776
4,553
-5.4%
-17.3%
-12.9%
-21.2%
0.0%
5,496
5,901
7,004
6,391
7,401
5,496
-6.9%
-21.5%
-14.0%
-25.7%
0.0%
4,416
4,547
4,842
4,938
5,136
4,338
-2.9%
-8.8%
-10.6%
-14.0%
1.8%
1,818
1,870
2,083
2,062
2,177
1,767
-2.8%
-12.7%
-11.8%
-16.5%
2.9%
5,215
5,292
5,946
5,900
6,091
5,007
-1.5%
-12.3%
-11.6%
-14.4%
4.1%
5,190
5,538
7,376
6,914
7,528
5,190
-6.3%
-29.6%
-24.9%
-31.1%
0.0%
14,020
15,061
20,187
20,173
23,178
14,020
-6.9%
-30.5%
-30.5%
-39.5%
0.0%
8,738
8,951
9,816
10,229
10,858
8,591
-2.4%
-11.0%
-14.6%
-19.5%
1.7%
1,094
1,124
1,156
1,291
1,390
1,073
-2.7%
-5.4%
-15.2%
-21.3%
1.9%
S&P/TSX sectors
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Cons Disc
Cons
Staples
Financials
Healthcare
Tech
Telecom
Utilities
2,671
2,758
3,085
3,140
3,504
2,596
-3.2%
-13.4%
-14.9%
4,053
4,015
3,689
4,101
4,208
3,438
1.0%
9.9%
-1.2%
1,196
1,232
1,423
1,297
1,431
1,192
-2.9%
-15.9%
-7.8%
888
906
1,069
1,095
1,139
874
-1.9%
-16.9%
-18.9%
1,665
1,667
1,739
1,674
1,797
1,571
-0.1%
-4.3%
-0.6%
1,544
1,587
1,737
1,666
1,812
1,509
-2.7%
-11.1%
-7.3%
634
657
761
488
809
442
-3.6%
-16.7%
29.9%
150
152
159
230
271
129
-1.3%
-5.9%
-34.9%
928
945
933
844
949
825
-1.8%
-0.5%
10.0%
1,915
1,912
1,907
1,916
1,999
1,735
0.1%
0.4%
-0.1%
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Cons Disc
Cons
Staples
Financials
Healthcare
Tech
Telecom
Utilities
479
489
559
507
598
404
-2.1%
-14.3%
14 3%
-5.4%
208
213
246
240
255
198
-2.4%
-15.4%
15 4%
-13.2%
260
266
322
301
335
251
-2.4%
-19.3%
19 3%
-13.8%
279
284
318
296
329
254
-1.9%
-12.3%
12 3%
-5.6%
309
313
323
304
334
284
-1.3%
-4.3%
4 3%
1.8%
164
169
207
215
231
161
-2.6%
-20.6%
20 6%
-23.5%
369
374
411
365
421
344
-1.4%
-10.3%
10 3%
1.0%
376
378
411
405
439
345
-0.5%
-8.5%
8 5%
-7.1%
119
121
134
129
136
115
-1.6%
-11.3%
11 3%
-7.4%
165
168
170
159
173
153
-1.7%
-2.9%
2 9%
3.6%
9-Sep-2011
2-Sep-2011
30-Jun-2011
31-Dec-2010
52-week closing high
52-week closing low
weekly change
QTD change
YTD change
S&P 500
Dow Jones
Industrials
September 9, 2011
BankofCanada
2.0
U.S.FederalReserve
EuropeanCentralBank
1.5
1.0
0.5
11Sep
11Nov
GoC2yr
11Jan
GoC5yr
11Mar
GoC10yr
11May
11Jul
11Sep
GoC30yr
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
28Feb
5.0
31Mar
30Apr
Germany(2yr)
4.0
France(2yr)
31May
30Jun
Italy(2yr)
Spain(2yr)
31May
30Jun
31Jul
31Aug
31Jul
31Aug
3.0
3
0
2.0
1.0
28Feb
31Mar
30Apr
60
Swiss(2yr)
Portugal(2yr)
Greece(2yr)
40
20
28Feb
31Mar
30Apr
31May
30Jun
31Jul
31Aug
2.6
GoC10yr
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
9Aug
16Aug
23Aug
30Aug
6Sep
September 9, 2011
S&P500
S&P/TSX
1,500
15,000
1,400
14,000
1,300
13,000
1,200
12,000
1,100
11,000
1,000
10,000
11Sep
11Nov
11Jan
11Mar
11May
11Jul
11Sep
13,000
S&P/TSX
12,500
12,000
11,500
8Aug
1,250
15Aug
22Aug
29Aug
5Sep
29Aug
5Sep
S&P500
1,225
1,200
1 175
1,175
1,150
1,125
1,100
8Aug
15Aug
22Aug
103.0
US$/C$
102.5
102.0
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
9Aug
16Aug
23Aug
30Aug
6Sep
Weekly Recap
Monday September 5
- Septembers to remember: Dow down 15% in Sept 1930; down 31% in Sept 1931; up 12% in 1939; average since 1928: -1.3%, worst month
of the year, historically
- North American markets closed for Labour Day; European markets wish they were; DAX down 5.3%; CAC down 4.7%; FTSE down 3.6%
- HSBC China Services PMI reading fell to 50.6, the lowest level since the series began in November 2005
Tuesday September 6
- Bonds rally through the intra-day yield troughs set on August 18, with UST10 as low as 1.90% and Canadian 10s & bonds to 2.22 & 2.89%
- RBA on hold; the ECB took note of the Swiss National Banks decision to no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below... CHF 1.20,
but indicates the SNB is on its own: the Governing Council takes note of this decision, which has been taken by the [SNB] under its own
responsibility as the SNB tries to defend this line in the sand, theyll end up printing a lot of francs to buy a lot of Bunds and OATs
- Euro zone governments have no plans to inject any further capital into banks over and above the money earmarked for the financial sector
in the emergency loan programmes to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, sources said; Stoxx Europe 600 index falls to 2-year low
- Big protest in Rome against austerity; Italian PM Berlusconi calls for vote of confidence on its amended austerity plan
- ISM Non-manufacturing better than expected at 53.3
Wednesday September 7
- German Constitutional Court ruled on a constitutional complaint filed by a group with regard to the countrys participation in bailout of other
EZ members (seeking to obtain greater Parliamentary involvement in decisions). The Court ruled in favour of the EFSF, rejecting the
lawsuits against rescue packages; BUT, German govt must seek Parliaments budget committees approval for future EFSF commitments;
not only does it thus seems reasonable to assume that a bigger say for German parliament in future bailouts could lead other parliaments to
get the same, but the Court decision also means Eurobonds or a supra-national fiscal agent would violated the German constitution
- Bank of Japan announces no new measures (such as further inter-yen-tion); Swedish Riksbank cropped GDP forecast but no rate change
- Bank of Canada expects net exports to be major source of weakness, especially due to persistent strength of C$; given that several
downside risks... have been materialized, the need to withdraw monetary stimulus has diminished; doesnt signal cut but no hikes
- Gold falls as much as 4%, so though stock markets up around the world, TSX lagging
Thursday September 8
- BoKorea & BoE hold steady; ECB shifts from hawkish to neutral, providing some support for European stocks, which had started down
- Japanese machine tool orders down 8.2% in July, wiping out Junes big gain and then some
- Bernanke speech a non-event --- and thus manages to disappoint markets;
- Canadian bonds rally all day, with yields approaching Tuesdays lows
- NFL season kicks-off with a shoot-out; that followed Obamas speech, in which he managed to beat the whisper #s, announcing a $447
billion jobs plan, and which provides an upside risk to the economic outlook, provided he can get it passed (which is clearly why the plan is
heavily skewed towards tax cuts, whereas the tab for infrastructure spending and state aid is a modest $140B); in any case, will Democrats
be fully on-board with a plan thats mostly tax cuts? (Do payroll tax cuts actually stimulate job growth?) Will Republicans be on-side with
fiscal stimulus, even in the form of tax cuts, if it increases deficit? (And if the American Jobs Act is principally designed to save the job of
one particular person, that of the president?)
Friday September 9
- Japanese Q2 GDP was marked down as expected, to -2.2% annualized, lowering the YoY rate to -1.1% on real and -3.3% on nominal GDP
- ECB holds 172.9 billion in its deposit facility, up 7B overnight; more and more European banks would rather hold money at ECB than with
each other
- Canadian employment data --- jobs unexpectedly declined in August, with 5,500 more part-time jobs lost than full-time jobs gained; hours
worked were up for the 2nd straight month, but the unemployment rate was also up a touch to 7.3%; housing starts declined to 185k
- US wholesale inventories up; inventories-to-sales ratio
- Obamas speech, though excellent, was not enough of a positive surprise to get the stock market to even start the day up;
- Greek default concerns and worries about needing to invoke Germanys plan B (shoring up its banks in case of Greek default) prompt stock
markets to slide and bond yields to set new lows;
- German FDP party will seek a referendum on the ESM/EFSF
Jurgen Stark resigns from ECB with 3 years left on his term; rats leaving a ship is a bad sign --- is it similar with hawks?
John Hempton of Bronte Capital on risk management and sounding crazy, with reference to Sino Forest.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/09/risk-management-and-sounding-crazy.html
Paul Krugman on how the beatings must continue until morale improves in Europe.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/the-beatings-must-continue/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
John Hussman on whom will our leaders defend? One choice is to defend bondholders... the alternative is.. the public.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110905.htm
Chris Whalen on the dilemma of refinancing housing loans... the path ahead is clear.
The GSEs and large banks are still hiding losses on their books and subsidizing these losses by preventing consumers from
refinancing their mortgages. It remains only to recognize these losses, restructure solvent institutions and get on with the
business of recovery and growth by refinancing eligible home owners.
http://blogs.reuters.com/christopher-whalen/2011/09/06/profiles-in-competence-jesse-jones-leo-crowley/
Martin Wolf: Fiscal deficits are helpful... in a balance-sheet contraction, not because they return the economy swiftly to health,
but because they promote the painfully slow healing.... If the fiscal deficit is to be sharply reduced, the surpluses in the rest of
the economy must also fall. The question is how that is to be compatible with rapid deleveraging and expanded spending. In
my view, it cannot be. A more likely outcome, in present circumstances, is mass default, shrinking profits, damaged banks and
a renewed slump. That is what would happen if todays contained depression ceased to be contained.... It is becoming ever
clearer that the developed world is making Japans mistake of premature retrenchment during a balance-sheet depression, but
on a more dangerous far more global scale.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9cbe577a-d872-11e0-8f0a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XHLVqOal
Ed Harrison on why a breakup of the eurozone is now likely, after the decision by the German Constitutional Court:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/eurozone-breakup-likely.html
Other fare:
Goodbye to all that: reflections of a GOP operative who left the cult. Mike Lofgren.
http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-all-reflections-gop-operative-who-left-cult/1314907779#%5B3%5D
People dont realize how fragile democracy is. James Fallows.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/people-dont-realize-how-fragile-democracy-really-is/244559/