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10-Article Text-124-2-10-20210221
10-Article Text-124-2-10-20210221
Indonesian Journal OF S
of Social OCIAL
and AND ENVIRONMENTAL
Environmental ISSUES
Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47(IJSEI)
Journal Homepage: https://ojs.literacyinstitute.org/index.php/ijsei
ISSN: 2722-1369 (Online)
Research Article
ICP usage, Medicine, Transportation and every dropped drastically. Also, many experts on
sphere of human life. However, economic economic and financial matters have warned about
development is better explained and understood the worsening condition of global economic and
from the definition of industrialization by Williams financial structure.
(1961) cited in Obi, (2014, 2018) ‚To Williams, it is Such as Kristalina Georgieva, Managing
a set of vast economic and social changes e.g. Director of International Monitory Fund (IMF),
tendency toward urbanization increase as well as explained that ‚a recession at least as bad as during
increased technical and advanced education. the Global Financial Crisis or worse‛. More-over,
However, it is worthy to note that this Covid-19 is harming the Oyo, Adamawa and Kogi
economic development does not come like the rain state economy because the states has been
drop from haven, rather it follows some process experiencing the most difficult economic situation
like Rostow posit that development takes five since the 2016 economic recession in Nigeria when
stages. Society progresses and retrogress at some Buhari took over power in 2015. The lockdown
times due to many factors such as earthquakes, policy due to Corona virus pandemic has restricted
Psunami, Flood, Global epidemic like the 1918- various businesses such as trading, interstate
1919 influenza pandemic/Spanish Flu, 2005 Sarzin travelling for buying/selling and supply of goods
China, 2014-2015 Lassa fever and Meningitis out- and services, hospitality industries, higher
breaks and an outbreak of Ebola and 2019 COVID- institutions and secondary/primary schools,
19 global epidemic, (Ukase, 2020) It is on this note reduction in revenue generation for the states, banks
that Todaro (1977) sees development as a are sacking their staffs creating more
multidimensional process of change in the social unemployment, domestic violence and broad day
structure, attitude, institution as well as the general stealing of food items as a result of hunger and
acceleration of economic growth through reduction reduction in state monthly allocation which led to
of inequality and poverty, in like manner World payment of 80% payment of civil servants payment.
Bank (2008) and Obi (2019), argued that As far as the jobs of common people are concerned,
development refers to movement from one position there is also threat of losing their jobs because with
to other geared towards improving the living business shutting down that shows that companies
conditions of the people. The process of will be unable to pay to workers resultantly they
development is tied to the state of society as a have to lay them off. It is based on the forgoing that
whole in which the individual could make effective this study is poised at exploring the economic
contribution. Thus, it is achieved by increasing the implication of the lockdown policy in Oyo,
skills of people through education and mass Adamawa and Kogi State as a result of COVID-19
mobilization. Development is the process of with focus on impact of COVID-19 Lockdown
harnessing the human resources in order to conquer policy business activities, transportation sectors and
the environment for the betterment of the people in impact of COVID-19 lockdown policy on service/
line with its values, customs and traditions. hospitality industry in the selected state Nigeria.
Consequently, state-wide economic development
has taken different forms and shapes. MATERIALS AND METHODS
The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated The study was carried out in three selected
economic crisis are posing huge challenges, raising states of which two were affected by the pandemic;
many unknowns and imposing many economic Oyo from South West, Adamawa from North West
challenges. Both crises are National, but their and Kogi North central State free from COVID-19
impacts are deeply local. The outbreak of pandemic Pandemic and all has had fair share of COVID-19
Covid-19 all over the world has disturbed the Lock down policy. The study was carried out within
political, social, economic, religious and financial the period of federal government relaxation of the
structures of the whole world. World’s topmost COVID-19 lockdown policy. Using multi-stage
economies such as the US, China, UK, Germany, sampling method 300 business men and
France, Italy, Japan and many others are at the women/SMEs, Transporters and Service/hospitality
verge of collapse. Besides, Stock Markets around industry were selected from Ibadan, Mubi North
the world have been pounded and oil prices have and Lokoja.
40
Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47
Structured questionnaire was instrument of and limited household), b2=PSL (price of spare part
data collection. The study made use of descriptive skyrocket to lockdown), b3=SRG (affect inter-state
and inferential statistics to analyses the data of the relation-ship on goods and services), b4 = ITR
study. This includes Multiple Regression Analysis, (income of transporters reduced and TFS=(
Coefficient for correlations of independent sample travelling fair skyrocket above normal charged, e =
and analysis of variance (ANOVA) for significant error of terms.
impact samples. Multiple Regressions was used to Model Three
analyze the joint influence of independent variables The model specification is stated as;
and the dependent variable. Furthermore, the Y = b0 +b1X1 +b2X2 +b3X3 + e…………………….. (i)
coefficient was used to test the relation-ship Represented as
Lockdown Policy as a result of COVID-19 outbreak EEB = bo+b1 BSK+b2 SLE+b3 RSM +b4VCB+e ..
and dependent variable; between business/trading, (ii)
transportation and service/hospitality while Multiple Where;
Regression analysis was used to test the impact of Y = EEB (Economic effect and Business activities),
independent factor and dependent variables. Lastly, b0 = constant, b1=BSK (Banking service skeletal),
frequency and percentage count/charts were used to b2=SLE (Service were limited to essential goods),
analyze each of the items of the construct of the b3=RSM (rental shops and Mall), b4 = VCB
questionnaire. (viewing center/Betting shops and e = error of
Research Hypotheses terms.
I. COVID-19 Outbreak has no significant impact
on business activities in study areas RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
II. COVID-19 outbreak does not affect the Figure 1: demonstrates the effects of COVID-
transportation sector in the states 19 lockdown policy on business in the selected
III. COVID-19 outbreak does not affect study area during the lockdown period. Findings
services/hospitality industry in the states from data contained in table 1 indicates that
Model Specification cumulative majority of business men and women
Model One
The model specification is stated as; comprising of traders, retail shops, wholesale of
Y = b0 +b1X1 +b2X2 +b3X3 + e…………………….. (i) goods, prices of goods and services and customer
Represented as patronage which greatly affects the economy
EEB = bo+b1 BIL+b2 CPL+b3 LPS +b4LPP+e … activities of the study areas vis-à-vis national
(ii) economy. The statistical effect were; business
Where; indebtedness due to perishable goods in the
Y = EEB (Economic effect on Business activities), lockdown period (86.6%), change in customer
b0 = constant, b1=BIL (Business indebtedness to patronage due to COVID-19 lockdown policy
perishable goods), b2=CPL (change in customer (83.3%), effect on supply and sales (100%),
Patronage), b3=LPS (lockdown policy affect supply
and sales), b4 = LPP (lockdown policy affect prices inflation of prices of goods (96.7%). These findings
of goods and services and e = error of terms. show that the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and
the consequential lockdown policy significantly
Model Two affect economic activities which constitute means of
The model specification is stated as; livelihood for millions of unemployed youths and
Y = b0 +b1X1 +b2X2 +b3X3 + e……………………….. self-employed Nigerians. However, a cursory look
(i) at the result reveals the moving average of the
Represented as pandemic on businesses from perishable products-
EEB = bo+b1 MRH+b2 PSL+b3 SRG +b4TFS+e .. customer patronage-supply-supply and sales and
(ii)
Where; prices of goods. However, the linear forecast
Y = EEB (Economic effect on Business activities), reveals the ongoing effects of the pandemic on
b0 = constant, b1=MRH (Movement were restricted business activities; that is, if the lockdown policy is
41
Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47
not lifted, they will be disastrous effects on business into financial crisis similar to that of 2008. The
and might lead to collapse of the economy in the implication of this finding is that, if the lockdown
study areas. This finding is in agreement with Ozili, policy continued another economic recession worse
and Arun, (2020) who argued that the COVID-19 than that of 2016 in Nigeria is looming around the
pandemic spillover has affected economic activities corners.
of major economies and is capable of generating
Figure 1:
Source: Field Survey, 2020
Table 1 presents findings on the effect of agreement with the findings of Ozili, and Arun,
COVID-19 on transportation sector. Findings reveal (2020) who posit that travel restrictions has cost the
that total respondents attest that the COVID-19 tourism industry alone a loss of over $200 billion
pandemic has greatly affected the transportation globally, excluding other loss of revenue for
sector because of bound on interstate travel; people tourism travel, and also agrees with the forecast cost
can’t buy and sell due to travel restrictions. Even of the aviation industry totaling a loss of $113
upon relaxation, prices of transportation fares billion according to IATA. US airlines sought a
skyrocket above normal fares, and when cars broke $50bn bailout fund for the US Airline industry
down one can’t afford to purchase spare parts due to alone. The GTBA reported that the business travel
inflation in prices and this significantly affects the sector would lose $820 billion in revenue due to the
income and household of residents cum interstate corona virus pandemic.
relationship on goods and services. Statistical effect https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-seek-up-to-
were; effects on transportation sector (100%), 50-billion-in-government-aid-amid-coronavirus-
increase in price of spare parts (86.7%), effect on crisis-11584378242,
interstate relationship on goods and services https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-seek-up-to-
(89.3%), reduction in the income of transportation 50-billion-in-government-aid-amid-coronavirus-
(56.7%) and increase in transport fares (70%). This crisis-11584378242
implies that the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/11/busin
affects the transport sector, income of livelihood ess/11reuters-health-coronavirus-business-
due to restriction of movements caused by the travel.html
pandemic. The findings of this study is in
42
Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47
43
Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47
Hypotheses One: COVID-19 Outbreak has no significant impact on business activities in study areas.
Dependent Variable: EEB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/19/20 Time: 16:39
Sample: 1 300
Included observations: 299
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.102770 0.131050 -0.784200 0.4336
BIL 0.506838 0.058527 8.659929 0.0000
CPL -0.202387 0.040158 -5.039744 0.0000
LPS 0.737501 0.071198 10.35845 0.0000
LPP 0.060816 0.043213 1.407349 0.1604
R-squared 0.599908 Mean dependent var 1.989967
Adjusted R-squared 0.594464 S.D. dependent var 0.452324
S.E. of regression 0.288048 Akaike info criterion 0.365199
Sum squared resid 24.39359 Schwarz criterion 0.427079
Log likelihood -49.59721 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.389966
F-statistic 110.2076 Durbin-Watson stat 0.222701
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
E-view 10 Output
Regression analysis Results shows 59.9% BILL will lead to 50.6 unit increase in EEB and this
significant variation between the independent is statistically significant at Pvalue-0.000. On the
variable (BIL, CPL, LPS and LPP) and the other hand, CPL shows a negative significant
dependent variable (EEB) this indicates that about impact with the value of -0.20 to EEB. This implies
59.9% of COVID19 economic effect on business is that a unit decrease in CPL will generate a -.0.20
being determined by (BIL, CPL, LPS and LPP). unit decrease in EEB and this statistically
The result further compared with error in significant at 0.000. On the other hand LPS shows a
calculation still shows 59.4 in variation ANOVA coefficient value of 73.7 to EEB, this implies that a
result (F-statistics) of 110.20 (0.000) shows that unit increase in LPS will lead to 73.7 increases in
overall regression result is significant. This further EEB and this is statistically significant at 0.000.
explains that the impact of COVID-19 on LPP shows a coefficient value of 60.8, this implies
economics activities in the study area cannot be that a unit increase in LPP will lead to 60.8
ignored. While BILL shows a coefficient value of increases in EEB and this is not statistically
50.6 to EEB this implies that a unit increase in significant.
Hypothesis two: COVID-19 outbreak does not affect the transportation sector in the states
Dependent Variable: EEB
Method: Least Squares
44
Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI), 1 (2), 39-47
awareness creation and giving out palliatives was Department of Political Science, Kogi State
able to curtail the spread from entering Kogi State, University, Anyigba.
Oyo and Adamawa state repaired their public health Obi S.E, (2019). Farmers’-Pastoralists Conflict in
care system, and fixed other shortcomings in public Omala Local Government Area of Kogi
infrastructure such as the transition to online State: An Examination of Its Impact on Rural
education, transportation systems and the disease Development. Unpublished M.Sc
detection systems in public hospitals and also used Dissertation submitted to the Department
the crisis as an opportunity to fix the economic Political Science, Faculty of Management
system and the financial system with the planned and Social Sciences, Ibrahim Badamasi
federal stimulus package. Babangida University, Lapai, Niger State
Ozili, P. K. (2020). 100 Quotes from the Global
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