Molato, Loushayne S.

A-338
The data on the tables below are the demand in dozens of doughnuts of Krispy Doughnuts for the
past six weeks, make a forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing
with an alpha of 0.10, and linear trend.

Exponential Smoothing here, alpha = 0.10 3-week moving average

Period Actual Forecast Absolute Error Forecast Absolute Error

Demand

Jan 200

Feb 256

March 287

April 282

May 247

June 252

July

Total

Mean Absolute Error

(MD)

Perform linear trend.

Period x Actual demand (y) xy x2

Jan 200

Feb 256

March 287

April 282

May 247

June 252

Total
Molato, Loushayne S. A-338

Answer the following question. Use your solution above in answering.

1. What is your forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average?

2. What is your forecast for week 7 using exponential smoothing?

3. Which is the better forecasting technique for the data, moving average or exponential
smoothing?

4. Using the 3 month moving average, what period did your forecast start?

5. If 4 month moving average is used, what period must you start your forecast?

6. In exponential smoothing, to what did you multiply the alpha of 0.10, actual demand or
forecast?

7. Given weights of 0.40 (most recent), 0.20,0.20 and 0.20 for the preceding periods
respectively, what is the forecast for week 7 using weighted moving average?

8. What is the linear trend equation?

9. What does your slope (b) indicate, increasing or decreasing demand?

10. Using linear trend, what is the forecast for week 7?