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    Moving Average Analysis

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    Riddhi Madani
    This document contains information about coal production forecasting using double exponential smoothing. It shows coal production data from years 1 to 11, with the level, trend, and forecast calculated using alpha=0.6 and beta=0.4. It also displays the minimum mean absolute deviation (MAD) that results from testing different combinations of alpha and beta values between 0 and 1.

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    Moving Average Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Riddhi Madani
    2 views12 pages
    This document contains information about coal production forecasting using double exponential smoothing. It shows coal production data from years 1 to 11, with the level, trend, and forecast calculated using alpha=0.6 and beta=0.4. It also displays the minimum mean absolute deviation (MAD) that results from testing different combinations of alpha and beta values between 0 and 1.

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    This document contains information about coal production forecasting using double exponential smoothing. It shows coal production data from years 1 to 11, with the level, trend, and forecast calculated using alpha=0.6 and beta=0.4. It also displays the minimum mean absolute deviation (MAD) that results from testing different combinations of alpha and beta values between 0 and 1.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    2 views12 pages

    Moving Average Analysis

    Uploaded by

    Riddhi Madani
    This document contains information about coal production forecasting using double exponential smoothing. It shows coal production data from years 1 to 11, with the level, trend, and forecast calculated using alpha=0.6 and beta=0.4. It also displays the minimum mean absolute deviation (MAD) that results from testing different combinations of alpha and beta values between 0 and 1.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 12

    Coal Production

    Double Exponential Smoothing

    Alpha 0.5
    Beta 0.5

    Year Total Tons Level (a) Trend (b) Forecast


    1 434,329,000 434,329,000 -13,906,000
    2 420,423,000 420423000 -13906000 420,423,000
    3 439,043,000 422780000 -5774500 406,517,000
    4 477,195,000 447100250 9272875 417,005,500
    5 504,182,000 480277562.5 21225093.75 456,373,125
    6 526,954,000 514228328.125 27587929.6875 501,502,656
    7 546,822,000 544319128.9063 28839365.234375 541,816,258
    8 564,882,000 569020247.0703 26770241.699219 573,158,494
    9 556,706,000 576248244.3848 16999119.506836 595,790,489
    10 570,978,000 582112681.9458 11431778.533936 593,247,364
    11 593,544,460

    MAD
    Beta →
    30076475.967 0.1 0.2 0.3
    Aplha ↓ 0.1
    Absolute Error 0.2
    0.3
    0 0.4
    32526000 0.5
    60189500 0.6
    47808875 0.7
    25451343.75 0.8
    5005742.1875 0.9
    8276494.140625 Minimum 15428780.291
    39084488.76953
    22269363.8916

    30076475.96741
    0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
    Coal Production
    Double Exponential Smoothing

    Alpha 0.5
    Beta 0.5

    Year Total Tons Level (a) Trend (b) Forecast


    1 434,329,000 434,329,000 -13,906,000
    2 420,423,000 420423000 -13906000 420,423,000
    3 439,043,000 422780000 -5774500 406,517,000
    4 477,195,000 447100250 9272875 417,005,500
    5 504,182,000 480277562.5 21225093.75 456,373,125
    6 526,954,000 514228328.125 27587929.6875 501,502,656
    7 546,822,000 544319128.9063 28839365.234375 541,816,258
    8 564,882,000 569020247.0703 26770241.699219 573,158,494
    9 556,706,000 576248244.3848 16999119.506836 595,790,489
    10 570,978,000 582112681.9458 11431778.533936 593,247,364
    11 593,544,460

    MAD
    Beta →
    30076475.967 0.1 0.2 0.3
    Aplha ↓ 0.1
    Absolute Error 0.2
    0.3
    0 0.4
    32526000 0.5
    60189500 0.6
    47808875 0.7
    25451343.75 0.8
    5005742.1875 0.9
    8276494.140625 1
    39084488.76953 Minimum 14656181.357
    22269363.8916

    30076475.96741
    0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
    Coal Production
    Double Exponential Smoothing

    Alpha 0.6
    Beta 0.4

    Year Total Tons Level (a) Trend (b) Forecast


    1 434,329,000 434,329,000 -13,906,000
    2 420,423,000 420423000 -13906000 420,423,000
    3 439,043,000 426032600 -6099760 406,517,000
    4 477,195,000 454290136 7643158.4 419,932,840
    5 504,182,000 487282517.76 17782847.744 461,933,294
    6 526,954,000 518198546.2016 23036120.02304 505,065,366
    7 546,822,000 544587066.4899 24377080.129126 541,234,666
    8 564,882,000 566514858.6476 23397364.940571 568,964,147
    9 556,706,000 569988489.4353 15427871.279411 589,912,224
    10 570,978,000 576753344.2859 11962664.707889 585,416,361
    11 588,716,009

    MAD
    Beta →
    26404945.599 0.1 0.2 0.3
    Aplha ↓ 0.1 122084659.6 114462367.2 107182207
    Absolute Error 0.2 91609588.62 80396505.48 70212438
    0.3 70278797.58 57875625.26 47807965
    0 0.4 55319805.51 43045944.98 40288777
    32526000 0.5 44748261.07 36331567.94 34078878
    57262160 0.6 37173950.56 31537130.9 28659775
    42248705.6 0.7 32533065.18 27423151.93 24253712
    21888634.496 0.8 29345822.4 24016026.08 20789435
    5587333.77536 0.9 26841091.65 21866341.21 18215839
    4082146.618982 Minimum 15428780.291
    33206223.58816
    14438360.71468

    26404945.59915
    0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
    100233030.27 93603950 87284335 81263810 75532246 70079761
    60987540.365 54487181 52077689 51599271 50796875 49710262
    45846608.855 44580971 42837751 41356886 41052145 40193364
    38300372.656 35883242 35227128 33853310 33401621 32610712
    31215474.299 30076476 28912052 28139659 26752843 25119952
    26404945.599 25001568 24047056 22471581 21624268 20974576
    22131078.247 21080625 19572690 19025304 18810265 18256529
    18871149.012 17628604 17355453 17156091 16624374 16086552
    16655694.143 15965072 15904786 15486306 15428780 15626811
    Coal Production
    Double Exponential Smoothing

    Alpha 0.6
    Beta 0.4

    Year Total Tons Level (a) Trend (b) Forecast


    1 434,329,000 434,329,000 -13,906,000
    2 420,423,000 420423000 -13906000 420,423,000
    3 439,043,000 426032600 -6099760 406,517,000
    4 477,195,000 454290136 7643158.4 419,932,840
    5 504,182,000 487282517.76 17782847.744 461,933,294
    6 526,954,000 518198546.2016 23036120.02304 505,065,366
    7 546,822,000 544587066.4899 24377080.129126 541,234,666
    8 564,882,000 566514858.6476 23397364.940571 568,964,147
    9 556,706,000 569988489.4353 15427871.279411 589,912,224
    10 570,978,000 576753344.2859 11962664.707889 585,416,361
    11 588,716,009

    MAD
    Beta →
    26404945.599 0.1 0.2 0.3
    Aplha ↓ 0.1
    Absolute Error 0.2
    0.3
    0 0.4
    32526000 0.5
    57262160 0.6
    42248705.6 0.7
    21888634.496 0.8
    5587333.77536 0.9
    4082146.618982 1
    33206223.58816 Minimum 14656181.357
    14438360.71468

    26404945.59915
    0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

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