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MGT400 Ch03
MGT400 Ch03
MGT400 Ch03
Skill in decision making is a prerequisite to being an effective marketing manager. Indeed, Nobel laureate Herbert Simon viewed managing and decision making as being one and the same.1 Another management theorist, Peter Drucker, has said that the burden of decision making can be lessened and better decisions can result if a manager recognizes that decision making is a rational and systematic process and that its organization is a denite sequence of steps, each of them in turn rational and systematic.2 One objective of this chapter is to introduce a systematic process for decision making;another is to introduce basic considerations in case analysis. Just as decision making and managing can be viewed as being identical in scope, so the decision-making process and case analysis go hand in hand. For this reason, many companies today use case studies when interviewing an applicant to assess his or her decision-making skills. They have found that the applicants approach to the case demonstrates strategic thinking, analytical ability and judgment, along with a variety of communication skills, including listening, questioning, and dealing with confrontation.3
DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Although no simple formula exists that can assure a correct solution to all problems at all times, use of a systematic decision-making process can increase the likelihood of arriving at better solutions.4 The decision-making process described here is called DECIDE:5 Dene the problem. Enumerate the decision factors. Consider relevant information. Identify the best alternative. Develop a plan for implementing the chosen alternative. Evaluate the decision and the decision process. A denition and a discussion of the implications of each step follow.
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Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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2009931872
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
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2009931872
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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the problem was dened in terms of contribution to advertising and sales promotion in Step 1 of the DECIDE process (dening the problem). Given two alternatives, two competitive responses, and a calculated contribution per unit for each combination, they identied four unique nancial outcomes. These outcomes are displayed in the decision tree shown in Exhibit 3.1. It is apparent from the decision tree that the largest contribution will be generated if El Nacho maintains its price on frozen dinners and competitors maintain their lower price. If El Nacho maintains its price and competitors reduce their price further, however, the lowest contribution among the four outcomes identied will be generated. The choice of an alternative obviously depends on the likelihood of occurrence of uncertainties in the environment. A payoff table is a useful tool for displaying the alternatives, uncertainties, and outcomes facing a rm. In addition, a payoff table includes another dimension managements subjective determination of the probability of the occurrence of an uncertainty. Suppose, for example, that El Nacho management believes that competitors are also operating with slim contribution margins and, hence, are most likely to maintain the lower price regardless of El Nachos action. They believe that there is a 10 percent chance that competitors will reduce the price of frozen dinners even further.8 Since only two uncertainties have been identied, the subjective probability of competitors maintaining their price is 90 percent (note that the probabilities assigned to the uncertainties must total 1.0, or 100 percent). Given these probabilities, the payoff table for El Nacho Foods is shown in Exhibit 3.2. The payoff table allows the manager or case analyst to compute the expected monetary value for each alternative. The expected monetary value is calculated by multiplying the outcome for each uncertainty by its probability of occurrence and EXHIBIT 3.2 Payoff Table for El Nacho Foods
Uncertainties Competitors Maintain Price (Probability = 0.9) Reduce price Alternatives Maintain price $175,000 $90,000
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$150,000
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
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then totaling across the uncertainties for each alternative. The expected monetary value of an alternative can be viewed as the value that would be obtained if the manager were to choose the same alternative many times under the same conditions. The expected monetary value of the price-reduction alternative equals the probability that competitors will maintain prices, multiplied by the nancial contribution if competitors maintain prices, plus the probability that competitors will further reduce prices, multiplied by the nancial contribution if competitors further reduce prices. The calculation is (0.9)($150,000) (0.1)($110,000) $135,000 $11,000 $146,000
The expected monetary value of maintaining the price is (0.9)($175,000) (0.1)($90,000) $157,500 $9,000 $166,500
The higher average contribution of $166,500 for maintaining the price indicates that El Nachos management should maintain the price. The contribution is higher because competitors are expected to maintain their prices nine times out of ten. Under the same conditions (same outcomes, same probability estimates), El Nacho would achieve an average contribution of $146,000 if the price-reduction alternative were chosen. A rational management would, therefore, select the price-maintenance alternative. Familiarity with decision analysis is important for four reasons. First, decision analysis is a fundamental tool for considering what if situations. By organizing alternatives, uncertainties, and outcomes in this manner, a manager or case analyst becomes sensitive to the dynamic processes present in a competitive environment. Second, decision analysis forces the case analyst to quantify outcomes associated with specic actions. Third, decision analysis is useful in a variety of settings. For example,Warner-Lambert Canada, Ltd. applied decision analysis when deciding to manufacture and distribute Listerine throat lozenges in Canada; Ford Motor Company used decision analysis in deciding whether to produce its own tires; and Pillsbury used it in determining whether to switch from a box to a bag for a certain grocery product.9 Fourth, an extension of decision analysis can be used in determining the value of perfectinformation. Exhibit 3.3 shows how the expected monetary value of perfect information (EMVPI) can be calculated using the El Nacho Foods example. Simply speaking, EXHIBIT 3.3 Decision Analysis and the Value of Information
Payoff Table Uncertainties Competitors Maintain Price (Probability = 0.9) A1: Reduce price Alternatives A2: Maintain price $175,000 $90,000 $150,000 Competitors Reduce Price (Probability = 0.1) $110,000
Calculation of Expected Monetary Value (EMV): EMVA1 = 0.9($150,000) EMVA2 = 0.9($175,000) 0.1($110,000) = $146,000 0.1($90,000) = $166,500 0.1($110,000) = $168,500
Calculation of Expected Monetary Value of Perfect Information (EMVPI): EMVcertainty = 0.9($175,000) EMVPI = EMVcertainty
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EMVPI = $168,500
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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EMVPI is the difference between what El Nacho would achieve in contribution dollars if its management knew for certain what competitors would do and the average contribution dollars realized without such information. In other words, if El Nacho knew for certain that competitors would maintain their price, the maintain price alternative would be selected. If El Nacho management knew for certain that competitors would reduce their price, however, the reduce price alternative would be chosen. Assuming El Nacho management faced this decision 10 times and knew what competitor reaction would be each time, El Nacho management would make the appropriate decision each time. The result would be an expected monetary value of $168,500. The difference of $2,000 between $168,500 and $166,500 (the best alternative without such information) is viewed as the upper limit to pay for perfect information. EMVPI is a useful guide for determining how much money should be spent for marketing research information to identify the best alternative or course of action.
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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ourselves lost while trying to locate a home or business from an address. Eventually we somehow nd it but are again at a loss when later asked to direct someone else to the same address. Analogously, the case analyst may arrive at the correctsolution but be unable to outline (map) the process involved. After completing a class discussion of a case, a written case assignment, or a group presentation, the case analyst should critically examine his or her performance by answering the following questions: 1. Did I dene the problem adequately? 2. Did I identify all pertinent alternatives and uncertainties? Were my assumptions realistic? 3. Did I consider all information relevant to the case? 4. Did I recommend the appropriate course of action? If so, was my logic consistent with the recommendation? If not, were my assumptions different from the assumptions made by others? Did I overlook an important piece of information? 5. Did I consider how my recommendation could be implemented? Honest answers to these questions will improve the chances of making better decisions in the future.
Specic Points of Inquiry Nature of the industry, market, and buyer behavior 1. What is the nature of industry structure, conduct, and performance? 2. Who are the competitors, and what are their strengths and weaknesses? 3. How do buyers buy in this industry or market? 4. Can the market be segmented? How? Can the segments be quantied? 5. What are the requirements for success in this industry? The organization 1. What are the organizations mission, objectives, and distinctive competency? 2. What is its offering to the market? How can its past and present performance be characterized? What is its potential? 3. What is the situation in which the manager or organization nds itself? 4. What factors have contributed to the present situation? A plan of action 1. What actions are available to the organization? 2. What are the costs and benets of action in both qualitative and quantitative terms? 3. Is there a disparity between what the organization wants to do, should do, can do, and must do? Potential outcomes 1. What will be the buyer, trade, and competitive response to each course of action? 2. How will each course of action satisfy buyer, trade, and organization requirements? 3. What is the potential protability of each course of action? 4. Will the action enhance or reduce the organizations ability to compete in the future?
until you understand their meaning and derivation. Third, do not confuse supposition with fact. Many statements are made in a case, such as Our rm subscribes to the marketing concept. Is this a fact, based on an appraisal of the rms actions and performance, or a supposition?
Nature of the Industry, Market, and Buyer Behavior The rst analytical category
focuses on the organizations environmentthe context in which the organization operates. Specic topics of interest include (1) an assessment of the structure, conduct, and performance of the industry and competition, and (2) an understanding of who the buyers are and why, where, when, how, what, and how much they buy.
The Organization It is important to develop an understanding of the organizations nancial, human, and material resources, its strengths and weaknesses, and the reasons for its success or failure. Of particular importance is an understanding of what the organization wishes to do. The t between the organization and its environment represents the rst major link drawn in case analysis. This link is the essence of the
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Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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situation analysis, since it is an interpretation of where the organization currently stands. A SWOT analysis like that described in Chapter 1 might be helpful in organizing your thoughts at this point.
A Plan of Action You should be prepared to identify possible courses of action on the basis of the situation analysis. More often than not, several alternatives are possible, and each should be fully articulated. Each course of action typically has associated costs and revenues. These should be carefully calculated on the basis of realistic estimates of the magnitude of effort expected in their pursuit. Potential Outcomes Finally, the potential outcomes of all courses of action identied should be evaluated. On the basis of the appraisal of outcomes, one course of action or strategy should be recommended. The evaluation, however, must indicate not only why the recommendation was preferred, but also why other actions were dismissed. Though it is always useful to consider each of the analytical categories just described, the method in which they are arranged may vary. There is no one way to analyze a case, just as there is no single correct way to attack a marketing problem. Just be sure to cover the bases. Formulating the Case Analysis in Teams Just as organizations now rely on teams to
examine marketing issues, student teams are often assigned a case to analyze. A case analysis by a team will also consider the four analytical categories just discussed. However, a team-based case analysis introduces additional considerations that can affect the quality of a team experience and the analysis itself. If the instructor asks you to form your own team, care should be taken in choosing team members. Forming teams on the basis of friendships is common but not always wise. Rather, try to create a balanced team where various skills complement one another (nancial skills, oral presentation skills, writing skills, and so on). Seek out individuals who are committed and dependable. The behavior of a team can also affect the quality of marketing decision making and a case analysis.11 Care should be taken to avoid groupthinkthe tendency for groups that work together over a period of time to produce poorly reasoned decisions. Groupthink is evident when social pressures and conict avoidance overtake the desire to rigorously question analyses and alternatives in favor of seeking conformity and consensus. Common outcomes of groupthink are an incomplete survey of issues and alternatives, failure to consider the risks of the groups decision, failure to reappraise initially rejected alternatives, limited recognition and evaluation of case information, and failure to work out contingency plans due to overcondence in the likelihood of success of a chosen course of action and the correctness of a decision.12 Alfred Sloan, the legendary chairman of General Motors, was acutely aware of groupthink in his executive ranks. He was often heard to say,I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here. Then I propose we postpone further discussion of the matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.13 Case study teams might do the same to avoid the pitfalls of groupthink.
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Class Discussion Discussing case studies in the classroom setting can be an exciting experience, provided that each student actively prepares for and participates in the
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
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discussion. Preparation involves more than simply reading the case prior to the scheduled class periodthe case should be carefully analyzed, using the four analytical categories described earlier. Four to ve hours of preparation are usually required for each assigned case. The notes developed during the preparation should be brought to class. Similarly, participation involves more than talking. Other students should be carefully watched and listened to during a class discussion. Attentiveness to the views of others is necessary in order to build on previous comments and analyses. Most class discussions follow a similar format. Class analysis begins with a discussion of the organization and its environment. This discussion is followed rst by a discussion of the alternative courses of action and then by a consideration of possible implementation strategies. Knowing where the class is in the discussion is important both for organizing the multitude of ideas and analyses presented and for preparing remarks for the subsequent steps in the class discussion. Immediately after the class discussion, you should prepare a short summary of the analysis developed in class. This summary, which should include the specic facts, ideas, analyses, and generalizations developed, will be useful in comparing and contrasting case situations.
Oral Presentation An oral presentation of a case requires a slightly different set of skills. Usually, a group of three to ve students conducts a rigorous analysis of a case and presents it to classmates. Role-playing may be featured: Class members may serve as an executive committee witnessing the presentation of a task force or project team. A polished delivery is very important in oral presentations.14 Thus, the group should rehearse its presentation, with group members seriously critiquing one anothers performance. Oral presentations provide an opportunity to verbalize your analysis and recommendations and visually enhance your remarks with carefully crafted and informative transparencies, electronic slides, or other visual aids. At a minimum, slides or transparencies should cover each of the following areas:
1. An opening slide showing the title of the presentation and names of the presenters. 2. A slide that outlines the presentation (perhaps with presenters names by each topic). 3. One or more slides detailing the key problems and strategic issues that management needs to address. 4. A series of slides covering your analysis of the companys situation or problem. 5. A series of slides containing your recommendations and the supporting arguments and reasoning for each recommendationone slide for each recommendation and the associated reasoning has a lot of merit. Remember that slides and transparencies help to communicate your ideas to the audience. They are not meant to substitute for the oral presentation. Slides and transparencies may be referred to but should never be read to the audience. Also keep in mind that too many graphics, images, colors, and transitions may divert the attention of the audience and disrupt the ow of the presentation. Finally, keep in mind that dazzling slides and transparencies will not hide a supercial or awed case analysis from a perceptive audience.
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
NOTES
63 There is no one correct approach to organizing a written case analysis. However, it is usually wise to think about the report as having three major sections: (1) identication of the strategic issues and problems, (2) analysis and evaluation, and (3) recommendations. The rst section should contain a focused paragraph that denes the problem and species the constraints and options available to the organization. Material in the second section should provide a carefully developed assessment of the industry, market and buyer behavior, the organization, and the alternative courses of action. Analysis and evaluation should represent the bulk of the written report. This section should not contain a restatement of case information;it should contain an assessment and interpretation of the facts, qualitative and quantitative data, and management views. The last section should consist of a set of recommendations. These recommendations should be documented with references to the previous section and should be operational given the case situation. By all means, commit to a decision! A case and a written student analysis of it are presented in the appendix at the end of the book. It is recommended that you carefully analyze the case before reading the student analysis. NOTES 1. Leigh Buchanon and Andrew OConnell,A Brief History of Decision Making,Harvard Business Review (January 2006): 3241. 2. What Executives Should Remember: Classic Advice from Peter Drucker, Harvard Business Review (February 2006): 144152. 3. Melissa Raffoni, Use Case Interviewing to Improve Your Hiring, Harvard Management Update (July 1999): 10. 4. Loren Gary,Want Better Results? Boost Your Problem-Solving Power, Harvard Management Update (October 2004): 14. 5. DECIDE acronym copyright by William Rudelius. Used with permission. 6. Cluett Peabody & Co. Loses Shirt Trying to Jazz Up the Arrow Man, Wall Street Journal (July 28, 1988): 24. 7. Mark David Nevins and Stephen A. Stumpf, 21st-Century Leadership: Redening Management Education,Strategy & Business (Third Quarter, 1999): 4151. 8. An issue that frequently arises in developing these subjective probabilities is how to select them. One source is past experience, in the form of statistics such as A. T. Kearneys probabilities of success for alternative strategies, presented in Chapter 1. Alternatively, case information can be used to develop probability estimates. At the very least, when two possible uncertainties exist, a subjective probability of .5 can be assigned to each. This means that the two uncertainties have an equal chance of occurring. These probabilities can then be revised up or down, depending on case information. 9. These examples and a further reading on decision analysis can be found in Peter C. Bell, Management Science/Operations Research: A Strategic Perspective (Cincinnati, OH: South-Western Publishing, 1999): Chapter 3. 10. Amitai Etzioni, Humble Decision Making, Harvard Business Review (JulyAugust 1989): 122126. 11. Jared Sandberg, Some Ideas Are So Bad That Only Team Efforts Can Account for Them,Wall Street Journal (September 29, 2004): B1. 12. Max Bazerman, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 6th ed. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2006). 13. This quote appears in David A. Garvin and Michael A. Roberto, What You Dont Know About Making Decisions,Harvard Business Review (September 2001): 108116. 14. This discussion is based on material in Arthur A. Thompson Jr. and A. J. Strickland, Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases, 13th ed. (Burr Ridge, IL: McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2004): C12C13.
2009931872 Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.
2009931872
Strategic Marketing Problems: Cases and Comments, Eleventh Edition, by Roger A. Kerin and Robert A. Peterson. Published by Prentice Hall. Copyright 2007 by Pearson Education, Inc.