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EV10003 C6 Climate Change 2023
EV10003 C6 Climate Change 2023
1
Reports Assessment Main conclusion
cycle
IPCC, First The observed increase in temperature could be largely due to
1990 natural variability; alternatively, this variability and other man-
made factors could have offset a still larger man-made
greenhouse warming
IPCC, Second The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
1995 on global climate
IPCC, Third There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
2001 observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities
IPCC, Fourth Most of the increase in global temperatures since the mid-
2007 twentieth century …are due to increase in anthropogenic GHG
concentrations
IPCC, Fifth Human impact on climate change is clear and anthropogenic
2014 GHG emissions are highest in history
IPCC, Sixth Total net anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to rise
2022 during the period 2010–2019, as have cumulative net CO2
emissions since 1850. Average annual GHG emissions during
2010–2019 were higher than in any previous decade, but the
rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 was lower than
that between 2000 and 2009. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.1)2
3
Climate change
mitigation options for
the future, IPCC-
2022 summary for
policy makers
4
5
IPCC, 2014
6
Climate Change
◦ Greenhouse effect
◦ Evidence, causes and effects
◦ Keeling curve, Global warming potential
◦ Ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere and the Montreal
Protocol
◦ Role of IPCC in the understanding of climate change
Global climate agreements
◦ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
◦ The Kyoto Protocol
◦ The Paris Agreement
Mitigation strategies
◦ Carbon capture, utilization and storage
◦ Adapting to climate changeMasters and Ela, 2012 and other sources
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Constituent Formula % by volume
Nitrogen N2 78.08
Oxygen O2 20.95
Argon Ar 0.93
Carbon dioxide CO2 0.038
Neon Ne 0.0018
Helium He 0.0005
Methane CH4 0.00017
Krypton Kr 0.00011
Nitrous oxide N2 O 0.00003
Hydrogen H2 0.00005
Ozone O3 0.000004
High degree of
mixing
Turbulent
9
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-
data/climate-science/greenhouse-effect
10
https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2166/ 11
CO2
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Halocarbons (eg., chlorofluorocarbons)
Ozone
Aerosols
Additions in IPCC, 2022:
◦ SF6 used in electricity transmission and distribution; it is
23,500 times more potent than CO2 as a GHG
◦ NF3 used in flat panel displays, photovoltaics and LED bulbs;
it is 17,200 times more potent than CO2 as a GHG
12
https://en.wikipe
dia.org/wiki/Abso
rption_band
13
Khoiyangbam and Gupta, 2015
14
Increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration
Global temperature rise
Warming of the oceans
Shrinking ice sheets
Glacier retreat
Decreased snow cover
Sea level rise
Declining Arctic sea ice
Extreme events
Ocean acidification
15
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 16
Respiration/ Photosynthesis
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/cc
gg/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.png
19
A decrease in 0.1 pH
units is equivalent to
30% increase in acidity
because the pH scale is
a log-scale.
20
Global methane emissions
• Global methane emissions estimated for 2020 are 9390 million
metric tons of CO2 equivalent/year (MMTCO2E/y)
• Enteric fermentation by ruminants is the largest source – cannot be
controlled
• 54% of the total is from 5 major sources that are controllable – in
MMTCO2E/y for 2020 (based on USEPA data)
• Agriculture – 286; Wastewater – 672; Oil and natural gas systems
– 2276; Municipal solid waste – 1077; Coal mining - 799
https://www.globalmethane.org/documents/gmi-mitigation-factsheet.pdf 21
Kaya identity is an application of the IPAT model for
carbon emission rate
I = PAT where I = impact, P = population, A =
affluence and T = technology
22
Current rise in the average temperature of the
atmosphere and oceans due to influx of short-
wave intense solar radiation to the earth’s surface
and emission of long-wave radiation from the
earth’s surface that is absorbed by GHGs
23
Global warming potential (GWP) is the heat absorbed by
any greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, as a multiple of the heat
that would be absorbed by the same mass of carbon
dioxide (CO2). GWP is 1 for CO2.
For other gases, it depends on the gas and the time frame for
calculation.
Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e or CO2eq or CO2-e) is
calculated from GWP. It can be measured in weight or
concentration. For any amount of any gas, it is the amount
of CO2 which would warm the earth as much as that amount of
that gas. Thus it provides a common scale for measuring the
climate effects of different gases. It is calculated as GWP times
amount of the other gas. For example if a gas has GWP of 100,
two tons of the gas have CO2e of 200 tons, and 1 part per million
of the gas in the atmosphere has CO2e of 100 parts per million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential
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Lifetime Global warming potential, GWP
GWP values and lifetimes
(years) 20 years 100 years 500 years
21[2]; 25[4]; 28
56[2]; 72[4]; 84 /34f[5]; 32[7]; 39f 6.5[2]
Methane CH4 12.4[5]
/86f[5]; 96 [6] (biogenic)[8]; 40f 7.6[4]
(fossil) [8]
280[2]; 289[4]; 310[2]; 298[4]; 265
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 121.0[5] 170[2]; 153[4]
264 / 268f[5] / 298f [5]
HFC-
13.4[5] 3710 / 3790f[5] 1300 / 1550f[5] 435[4]
134a (hydrofluorocarbon)
CFC-
45.0[5] 6900 / 7020f[5] 4660 / 5350f[5] 1620[4]
11 (chlorofluorocarbon)
Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4 /
50,000[5] 4880 / 4950f[5] 6630 / 7350f[5] 11,200[4]
PFC-14)
HFC- 12,000[4]; 14,800[4];
222[5] 12,200[4]
23 (hydrofluorocarbon) 10,800[5] 12,400[5]
Sulfur hexafluoride SF 16,300[4] 22,800[4]
3,200[5] 32,600[4]
6 17,500[5] 23,500[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record)
26
NOAA tracks anomalies relative to temperatures between 1901
and 2000. According to the NOAA's data, anomalies calculated
for 2017 were 1.5 degrees F (0.83 C) higher than the average
temperatures for all the years in the 20th century.
(https://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html)
GISS measures the change in global surface
temperatures relative to average temperatures from 1951 to
1980. GISS data show global average temperatures in 2017
rose 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) above the
1951-1980 mean. That would put the planet's average surface
temperature in 2017 at 58.62 F (14.9 C).
27
Global average surface temperature has increased by 1.18 deg C.
Averaged as a whole, the global land and ocean surface temperature for
March 2020 was 1.16°C (2.09°F) above the 20th century average of
12.7°C (54.9°F) and the second highest in the 141-year record. Only
March 2016 was warmer at 1.31°C (2.36°F).
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202003)
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 28
1972
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record 29
1965
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-
maps/figures/global-average-near-
surface-temperature 30
•2022 was the sixth-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data.
• The 2022 surface temperature was 1.55 °F (0.86 °Celsius) warmer than the
20th-century average of 57.0 °F (13.9 °C) and 1.90 ˚F (1.06 ˚C) warmer than
the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).
•The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.
https://www.climate.gov/media/15021 31
70% of the planet’s surface is covered by oceans
Functions: absorbs heat and CO2 and distributes it
evenly over the globe (heat capacity of water is much
higher than air)
90% of the heat is absorbed by the oceans; 0.33 deg
C increase in average ocean temperature
Consequences:
◦ Acidification of oceans due to dissolved carbonic acid
◦ Higher temperatures will cause ice sheets and icebergs to
melt at the bottom and lead to higher mean sea levels
◦ Coral bleaching events are correlated to sun-cycles and El
Nino events – higher ocean temperatures may result in similar
consequences
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33
Bhambri et al. (2023) 34
Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring
snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has
decreased over the past five decades and the snow is
melting earlier.
Loss of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland
◦ The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in
mass.
◦ Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per
year between 1993 and 2019.
◦ Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year.
◦ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ 35
Global sea level rose about 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the
last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is
nearly double that of the last century and accelerating slightly
every year.
36
The number of record high temperature events in the
United States has been increasing, while the number
of record low temperature events has been
decreasing since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed
increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.
37
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion 38
39
Came into effect from 1 Jan 1989; several revisions
since then, last one in 2016
Largest ozone hole over Antarctica – Sep 2006
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
40
EECl = Effective equivalent
chlorine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
41
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is
an intergovernmental body of the United Nations[1][2]
Mission: to provide the world with objective, scientific information relevant
to understanding the scientific basis of the risk of human-induced[3] climate
change, its natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible
response options.[4]
Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and was later
endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly. Membership is open to
all members of the WMO and UN.[5]
The IPCC produces reports that contribute to the work of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main
international treaty on climate change.[6][7] The objective of the UNFCCC is
to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference
with the climate system."[6] The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report was a
critical scientific input into the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement in 2015.[8]
42
In effect from 2005 to 2020;
To protect ozone layer by Superseded by Paris
phasing out compounds that Agreement, 2015. Reduce
destroy it GHG emissions
1989 1997
1992 2015
Earth Summit, 1992 Paris Agreement, 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Summit 44
Two approaches:
◦ Reduce emissions of GHGs (source control)
◦ Capture emissions of GHGs (create sinks)
Sinks for GHGs are oceans, forests and soils
Increase forest cover
Carbon capture and storage methods
45
The biggest sink for CO2 is vegetation and in the process O2
is generated
◦ IPCC’s current stand is that carbon sequestration by vegetation is
inadequate as the lifetime of vegetation is a few years and
eventually the organic C will be returned to the atm as CO2 when
the plant dies.
◦ They are promoting technological solutions for carbon
sequestration such as subsurface deposits that will last for
millennia
The threshold for minimum O2 conc in confined spaces
(OSHA) is 19.5%
Global forest cover = 31% of the land area
50% of the global forests are in 5 countries: Brazil, Canada,
China, Russian Federation and United States of America
India’s forest cover (2019) = 21.67%
West Bengal’s forest cover (2019) = 19%
46
Forest Cover of India, 2019
Definition
Class Area (sq km) Percentage of (based on
Geographical canopy density)
Area
Very Dense Forest 99,278 3.02 >70%
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See problems 8.1 to 8.12
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