Periodo Cantidad (D)

1 TRIM 21 42440
2 TRIM 21 42395
3 TRIM 21 43361
4 TRIM 21 43390
1 TRIM 22 42900
2 TRIM 22 43400
3 TRIM 22 44000
4 TRIM 22 43560

DEMANDA HISTORICA Periodo Cantidad (D)

44500 1 TRIM 21 42440
2 TRIM 21 42395
44000 3 TRIM 21 43361
4 TRIM 21 43390
43500 1 TRIM 22 42900
2 TRIM 22 43400
43000
3 TRIM 22 44000
42500
4 TRIM 22 43560

42000 Periodo Cantidad (D)

1 TRIM 21 42440
41500
1 TRIM 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM 1 TRIM 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM 2 TRIM 21 42395
21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 3 TRIM 21 43361
4 TRIM 21 43390
1 TRIM 22 42900
2 TRIM 22 43400
3 TRIM 22 44000
4 TRIM 22 43560
 α = 0.15
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 Periodo
42440 0 0 42440 0 1 TRIM 21
42440 -45 -6.75 42433.25 2025 2 TRIM 21
42433.25 927.75 139.1625 42572.4125 860720.063 3 TRIM 21
42572.4125 817.5875 122.638125 42695.0506 668449.32 4 TRIM 21
42695.0506 204.949375 30.74240625 42725.793 42004.2463 1 TRIM 22
42725.793 674.206969 101.131045313 42826.9241 454555.037 2 TRIM 22
42826.9241 1173.07592 175.961388516 43002.8855 1376107.12 3 TRIM 22
43002.8855 557.114535 83.5671802383 43086.4526 310376.605 ECM= 530605.342 4 TRIM 22
α = 0.25 AES=
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2
42440 0 0 42440 0
42440 -45 -11.25 42428.75 2025
42428.75 932.25 233.0625 42661.8125 869090.063
42661.8125 728.1875 182.046875 42843.8594 530257.035
42843.8594 56.140625 14.03515625 42857.8945 3151.76978
42857.8945 542.105469 135.526367188 42993.4209 293878.339
42993.4209 1006.5791 251.644775391 43245.0657 1013201.49
43245.0657 314.934326 78.733581543 43323.7993 99183.6298 ECM= 401541.046
α = 0.5
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2
42440 0 0 42440 0
42440 -45 -22.5 42417.5 2025
42417.5 943.5 471.75 42889.25 890192.25 X
42889.25 500.75 250.375 43139.625 250750.563 1
43139.625 -239.625 -119.8125 43019.8125 57420.1406 2
43019.8125 380.1875 190.09375 43209.9063 144542.535 3
43209.9063 790.09375 395.046875 43604.9531 624248.134 4
43604.9531 -44.953125 -22.4765625 43582.4766 2020.78345 ECM= 281599.915

La proyeccion no
la grafica no mue
 α = 0.5
Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P)
42440 42440 0 0 42440
42395 42440 -45 -22.5 42417.5
43361 42417.5 943.5 471.75 42889.25
43390 42889.25 500.75 250.375 43139.625
42900 43139.625 -239.625 -119.8125 43019.8125
43400 43019.8125 380.1875 190.09375 43209.9063
44000 43209.90625 790.09375 395.046875 43604.9531
43560 43604.953125 -44.953125 -22.4765625 43582.4766
43560 AED= 43582.4766

A 43537.5234375
DEMANDA + PROYECCION
B 22.4765625
44500
Periodo Cantidad
1 TRIM 21 42440 44000
2 TRIM 21 42395
3 TRIM 21 43361 43500
4 TRIM 21 43390
1 TRIM 22 42900 43000
2 TRIM 22 43400
3 TRIM 22 44000 42500
4 TRIM 22 43560
1 TRIM 23 43560 42000
2 TRIM 23 43582.4765625
3 TRIM 23 43604.953125 41500
4 TRIM 23 43627.4296875 1 TRIM 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM 1 TRIM 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM 1T
21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22

La proyeccion no es la adecuada puesto que

la grafica no muestra una tendencia lineal
DA + PROYECCION

M 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM 1 TRIM 2 TRIM 3 TRIM 4 TRIM

22 22 22 23 23 23 23
 Periodo Cantidad (D)
Mar-22 1700
Apr-22 1850
May-22 1900
Jun-22 1980
Jul-22 2090
Aug-22 2240
Sep-22 2360
Oct-22 1980
Nov-22 2370

DEMANDA HISTORICA Periodo Cantidad (D)

2500 Mar-22 1700
Apr-22 1850
2000 May-22 1900
Jun-22 1980
1500 Jul-22 2090
Aug-22 2240
1000
Sep-22 2360
Oct-22 1980
Nov-22 2370
500

0 Periodo Cantidad (D)

Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Mar-22 1700
Apr-22 1850
May-22 1900
Jun-22 1980
Jul-22 2090
Aug-22 2240
Sep-22 2360
Oct-22 1980
Nov-22 2370
 α = 0.2
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 Periodo
1700 0 0 1700 0 Mar-22
1700 150 30 1730 22500 Apr-22
1730 170 34 1764 28900 May-22
1764 216 43.2 1807.2 46656 Jun-22
1807.2 282.8 56.56 1863.76 79975.84 Jul-22
1863.76 376.24 75.248 1939.008 141556.538 Aug-22
1939.008 420.992 84.1984 2023.2064 177234.264 Sep-22
2023.2064 -43.2064 -8.64128 2014.56512 1866.793 Oct-22
2014.56512 355.43488 71.086976 2085.6521 126333.954 ECM= 78127.9236 Nov-22
α = 0.35
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2
1700 0 0 1700 0
1700 150 52.5 1752.5 22500
1752.5 147.5 51.625 1804.125 21756.25
1804.125 175.875 61.55625 1865.68125 30932.0156
1865.68125 224.31875 78.5115625 1944.19281 50318.9016
1944.19281 295.807188 103.532516 2047.72533 87501.8922
2047.72533 312.274672 109.296135 2157.02146 97515.4707
2157.02146 -177.021463 -61.9575121 2095.06395 31336.5985
2095.06395 274.936049 96.2276171 2191.29157 75589.831 ECM= 52181.3699
α = 0.5
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2
1700 0 0 1700 0
1700 150 75 1775 22500
1775 125 62.5 1837.5 15625 X
1837.5 142.5 71.25 1908.75 20306.25 1
1908.75 181.25 90.625 1999.375 32851.5625 2
1999.375 240.625 120.3125 2119.6875 57900.3906 3
2119.6875 240.3125 120.15625 2239.84375 57750.0977 4
2239.84375 -259.84375 -129.921875 2109.92188 67518.7744 5
2109.92188 260.078125 130.039063 2239.96094 67640.6311 ECM= 42761.5883 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
 α = 0.5
Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P)
1700 1700 0 0 1700
1850 1700 150 75 1775
1900 1775 125 62.5 1837.5
1980 1837.5 142.5 71.25 1908.75
2090 1908.75 181.25 90.625 1999.375
2240 1999.375 240.625 120.3125 2119.6875
2360 2119.6875 240.3125 120.15625 2239.84375
1980 2239.84375 -259.84375 -129.921875 2109.92188
2370 2109.92188 260.078125 130.039063 2239.96094
AES= 2109.92188 AED= 2239.96094

A 1979.88281
B 130.039063 DEMANDA + PROYECCION
4000

3500
Periodo Cantidad (D)
Mar-22 1700 3000
Apr-22 1850 2500
May-22 1900
2000
Jun-22 1980
1500
Jul-22 2090
Aug-22 2240 1000
Sep-22 2360 500
Oct-22 1980
0
Nov-22 2370 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Dec-22 2109.92188
Jan-23 2239.96094 De acuerdo a la pendiente la proyeccion es
Feb-23 2370 correcta
Mar-23 2500.03906
Apr-23 2630.07813
May-23 2760.11719
Jun-23 2890.15625
Jul-23 3020.19531
Aug-23 3150.23438
Sep-23 3280.27344
Oct-23 3410.3125
Nov-23 3540.35156
Dec-23 3670.39063
3 Sep-23 Dec-23
 Periodo Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P
Aug-21 1230 1230 0
Sep-21 1200 1230 -30
Oct-21 1250 1221 29
Nov-21 1290 1229.7 60.3
Dec-21 1350 1247.79 102.21
Jan-22 1320 1278.453 41.547
Feb-22 1295 1290.9171 4.0829
Cantidad (D) Mar-22 1340 1292.14197 47.85803
1400 Apr-22 1380 1306.49938 73.500621
1350
1300
Periodo Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P
1250 Aug-21 1230 1230 0
1200 Sep-21 1200 1230 -30
1150 Oct-21 1250 1218 32
1100 Nov-21 1290 1230.8 59.2
Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Dec-21 1350 1254.48 95.52
Jan-22 1320 1292.688 27.312
Feb-22 1295 1303.6128 -8.6128
Mar-22 1340 1300.16768 39.83232
Apr-22 1380 1316.10061 63.899392

Periodo Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P

Aug-21 1230 1230 0
Sep-21 1200 1230 -30
Oct-21 1250 1215 35
Nov-21 1290 1232.5 57.5
Dec-21 1350 1261.25 88.75
Jan-22 1320 1305.625 14.375
Feb-22 1295 1312.8125 -17.8125
Mar-22 1340 1303.90625 36.09375
Apr-22 1380 1321.95313 58.046875
 α = 0.3
α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 Periodo Cantidad (D)
0 1230 0 Aug-21 1230
-9 1221 900 Sep-21 1200
8.7 1229.7 841 Oct-21 1250
18.09 1247.79 3636.09 Nov-21 1290
30.663 1278.453 10446.8841 Dec-21 1350
12.4641 1290.9171 1726.15321 Jan-22 1320
1.22487 1292.14197 16.6700724 Feb-22 1295
14.357409 1306.49938 2290.39104 Mar-22 1340
22.0501863 1328.54957 5402.34129 ECM= 3157.44121 Apr-22 1380
α = 0.4 AES
α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2
0 1230 0
-12 1218 900 A
12.8 1230.8 1024 B
23.68 1254.48 3504.64
38.208 1292.688 9124.0704
10.9248 1303.6128 745.945344 Periodo
-3.44512 1300.16768 74.1803238 Aug-21
15.932928 1316.10061 1586.61372 Sep-21
25.5597568 1341.66036 4083.1323 ECM= 2338.06468 Oct-21
α = 0.5 Nov-21
α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 Dec-21
0 1230 0 Jan-22
-15 1215 900 Feb-22
17.5 1232.5 1225 Mar-22
28.75 1261.25 3306.25 X Apr-22
44.375 1305.625 7876.5625 1 May-22
7.1875 1312.8125 206.640625 2 Jun-22
-8.90625 1303.90625 317.285156 3 Jul-22
18.046875 1321.95313 1302.75879 4 Aug-22
29.0234375 1350.97656 3369.4397 ECM= 2312.9921 5 Sep-22
6 Oct-22
7 Nov-22
8 Dec-22
9 Jan-23
10 Feb-23
11 Mar-23
12 Apr-23
13 May-23
14 Jun-23
15 Jul-23
16 Aug-23
17 Sep-23
18 Oct-23
19 Nov-23
20 Dec-23
 α = 0.5
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P)
1230 0 0 1230
1230 -30 -15 1215
1215 35 17.5 1232.5
1232.5 57.5 28.75 1261.25
1261.25 88.75 44.375 1305.625
1305.625 14.375 7.1875 1312.8125
1312.8125 -17.8125 -8.90625 1303.90625
1303.90625 36.09375 18.046875 1321.95313
1321.953125 58.046875 29.0234375 1350.97656
1321.953125 AED 1350.97656

1292.9296875
29.0234375

Cantidad (D)
1230
1200 DEMANDA + PROYECCION
1250
2000
1290
1800
1350 1600
1320
1400
1295
1200
1340
1380 1000

1321.953125 800
1350.9765625 600
1380 400
1409.0234375 200
1438.046875 0
1467.0703125 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23
1496.09375
1525.1171875
La tendencia de la grafica muestra que la proyeccion es
1554.140625 correcta por la direccion que lleva la pendiente de la recta
1583.1640625
1612.1875
1641.2109375
1670.234375
1699.2578125
1728.28125
1757.3046875
1786.328125
1815.3515625
 1844.375
1873.3984375
ay-23 Aug-23 Nov-23
 Periodo Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P
1 bim 22 34000 34000 0
2 bim 22 42000 34000 8000
3 bim 22 48000 34000 14000
4 bim 22 46000 34000 12000
5 bim 22 48350 34000 14350
6 bim 22 48500 34000 14500

Cantidad (D) Periodo Cantidad (D) AES (P) D-P

60000 1 bim 22 34000 34000 0
50000 2 bim 22 42000 34000 8000
40000 3 bim 22 48000 40000 8000
30000 4 bim 22 46000 46000 0
20000
5 bim 22 48350 46000 2350
10000
0 6 bim 22 48500 47762.5 737.5
1 bim 2 bim 3 bim 4 bim 5 bim 6 bim
22 22 22 22 22 22
 α= Periodo Cantidad (D)
α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 1 bim 22 34000
0 34000 0 2 bim 22 42000
0 34000 64000000 3 bim 22 48000
0 34000 196000000 4 bim 22 46000
0 34000 144000000 5 bim 22 48350
0 34000 205922500 6 bim 22 48500
0 34000 210250000 ECM= 164034500 AES
α = 0.75
α (D-P) P+α (D-P) (D-P)2 A 47209.375
0 34000 0 B 1659.375
6000 40000 64000000
6000 46000 64000000
0 46000 0
1762.5 47762.5 5522500 Periodo Cantidad (D)
553.125 48315.625 543906.25 ECM= 26813281.3 1 bim 22 34000
2 bim 22 42000
3 bim 22 48000
Los datos y la grafica coinciden con la 4 bim 22 46000
direccion de la proyeccion y por lo tanto 5 bim 22 48350
es acertada la proyeccion
X 6 bim 22 48500
1 1 bim 23 48868.75
2 2 bim 23 50528.125
3 3 bim 23 52187.5
4 4 bim 23 53846.875
AES (P) D-P α (D-P) P+α (D-P)
34000 0 0 34000
34000 8000 6000 40000
40000 8000 6000 46000
46000 0 0 46000
46000 2350 1762.5 47762.5
47762.5 737.5 553.125 48315.625
47762.5 AED 48315.625

Cantidad (D)
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 bim 2 bim 3 bim 4 bim 5 bim 6 bim 1 bim 2 bim 3 bim 4 bim
22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23