Canadian Occupational

Projection System
2022 Projections

Job Seekers
2022-2031

1
 Sources of job seekers
• Job seekers are individuals who enter the
labour market as:
– School leavers (graduates and dropouts),
– New immigrants, and
– Other job seekers
• Those moving between occupations
• Net labour market re-entrants
• Students

Job seekers include three primary groups: school leavers, new immigrants and other job seekers
such as students and re-entrants.
• School leavers are people leaving their full-time education programs (either as dropouts or
graduates) to participate in the labour force. They are considered at their highest level of
education completed. For example, a post-secondary dropout is considered as a high-school
graduate.
• New immigrants are foreigners who enter Canada each year (under any immigration class) as
permanent residents and participate in the labour market.
• Other job seekers include:
− Occupational movers: those who change occupations without leaving the labour
market.
− Net re-entrants: those who had previously left the labour force and return to participate
in the labour market.
− Working students: individuals who look for work while going to school.
* The last two subgroups (i.e. net re-entrants and student workers) are negligible in size. As a result
they are not explicitly considered in this report as their inclusion has no impact on the main results.
In particular, student workers are left out because, although they represent a sizeable number of
workers in the labour force, their number is expected to remain relatively stable (i.e. the number of
students seeking employment over 2022-2031 will only be slightly higher than over the previous
decade). Both net re-entrants and student workers are combined in the category “others”.

2
 About the occupational groupings used to
assess labour market conditions
▪ The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National
Occupational Classification (NOC).

▪ The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small
in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings
according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations
with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained.

▪ Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data
were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of
the projections.

For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please
visit: http://occupations.esdc.gc.ca/sppc-cops/l.3bd.2t.1ilshtml@-
eng.jsp?lid=59&fid=1&lang=en

3
 Job Seekers
from the Education System
– School Leavers–

4
 Over the period 2022-2031, the number of school leavers entering the labour market is
projected to increase, lead entirely by post-secondary education (PSE) graduates.

School Leavers by Education Level, 1991-2031

projection
600,000
University
College
500,000 High School
Less than High School
400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
1991

2031
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Over the period 2022-2031, it is expected that the number of school leavers entering the labour market
will increase.
On average, there were 454,000 school leavers per year over the 2012-2021 period. This is expected to
increase to 548,000 annually over the projection period. More particularly:
• the numbers of school leavers with a college or a university education are projected to increase at
annual average growth rates of 1.4% and 1.2% respectively;
• the numbers of school leavers with a high school education is projected to decrease at an annual
average growth rate of -3.1%;
• the number of school leavers with less than a high school education is projected to remain very low
and will continue to represent less than 1.5% of all school leavers.

5
 The projected increase in school leavers with PSE results from the larger size of youth
population over the next decade.
Populations Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29 and their Shares in the Total Working Age
Population (15-64), 1991-2031 2012 – 2021 2022 – 2031
Average youth population: Average youth population:
Share of working-age population, 15-19 (left) 7.05M 7.56M
(percentage) Share of working-age population, 20-29 (left) 15-19: 2.11M 15-19: 2.37M (thousands)
Population 15-19 (right) 20-29: 4.94M 20-29: 5.19M
35% Population 20-29 (right)
7,000
30% 6,000
25% 5,000
20% 4,000
15% 3,000
10% 2,000
5% 1,000
0% 0
1993

2029
1991

1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027

2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Over the 2022-2031 projection period, the aging population will continue to be an important issue in the
Canadian labour market. Over this time period, the share of the older youth group (aged 20-29) in the
total working age population (15-64) is expected to average 19.7% annually, the lowest ten year
average since 1971.
However, the annual average population of this youth group (aged 20-29) is still expected to be 5.2%
higher over the projection period (2022-2031) than during the previous ten years (2012-2021). As this is
the source population for school leavers with a post-secondary education (PSE), the number of job
seekers leaving the PSE system is also expected to increase.
The annual average number of younger youth (aged 15-19) is expected to be about 2,372,000 over the
projection period, a 12.3% increase relative to the previous ten years, largely attributed to larger inflow
of immigrant families with young kids. Although this age group is the source population for school
leavers with a high school education or less, most of them are expected to continue and enroll into post-
secondary education, limiting the growth of those remaining with only a high school diploma.

6
 A larger youth population will lead to a higher projected number of enrolments in post-
secondary education (PSE).

Number of Enrolments by Level of Education, 1991-2031

(thousands)
1,800 College Female projection
1,600 College Male
Bachelor Female
1,400 Bachelor Male
1,200 Master's and PhD Female
1,000 Master's and PhD Male

800
600
400
200
0

2011

2017
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009

2013
2015

2019
2021
2022 - 2031

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Over the 2012-2021 period, the number of enrolments among women increased in all PSE levels, but at a
slower pace than among men except at the master’s and PhD level, with enrolments growing the least at the
college level (7% for women vs 9% for men), then the bachelor level (14% vs 15%), and the most at the
master’s and PhD levels (32% vs 21%).
Due to a larger youth population, the level of enrolments in PSE programs is projected to increase by 11.2%
over the 2022-2031 period (from 1.44 million in 2021 to 1.65 million in 2031). More specifically, the number of
enrolments in:
• college programs is projected to increase by 11.3%, from 473 thousand in the base year (2021) to 543
thousand in 2031;
• bachelor and first professional programs is projected to rise by 11.9%, from 847 thousand in 2021 to
977 thousand at the end of the projection period (2031) and;
• post-graduate level programs (master and PhD) is projected to rise by 4.2%, from 125 thousand in
2021 to 133 thousand in 2031.
Trends in the number of enrolments by gender were not projected.

7
 Higher enrolments translate into increases in the number of school leavers with
PSE, including both those with college education…

School Leavers with a College Education, 1991-2031

(thousands) (thousands)
projection
260 4,000
School Leavers with College Education (left)
240 Population 18-24 (right) 3,750
220 3,500
200 3,250
180 3,000
160 2,750
140 2,500
120 2,250
100 2,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

The population aged 18 to 24 (the source population for school leavers with a college education)
has not increased significantly in recent years, but this trend is not expected to continue as this
source population is expected to grow significantly over the projection period. This source
population is expected to include 589,000 more people in 2031 than it did in 2021. As a result, the
number of school leavers with a college education will continue to trend up, from 189 thousand in
2021 to 216 thousand in 2031, representing an increase of 14.8%. This can be explained by the
increase in the youth population, many of whom will be attracted by the good labour market
conditions for individuals with this level of education.

8
 … and those with a university degree.

School Leavers with a University Education, 1991-2031

(thousands) (thousands)
projection
300 10,000
280 School Leavers with University Education (left) 9,500
260 Population 18-34 (right) 9,000
240 8,500
220 8,000
200 7,500
180 7,000
160 6,500
140 6,000
120 5,500
100 5,000
80 4,500
60 2009 4,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007

2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

For more than 40 years the number of school leavers with a university degree has been trending
up, mostly as a result of the higher incomes and better labour market opportunities available to
graduates with this level of education. Over the past decade, the 2008-2009 recession had a
positive impact on enrolment in university programs leading to a short-term increase in the
number of university graduates and school leavers from 2010 to 2017.
The number of school leavers with a university degree is expected to increase as the source
population for this group (mainly high school graduates aged 18 to 34) grows and enrolment rates
remain high. As a result, the volume of these school leavers is expected to grow by 12.5% over
the projection period, from 261 thousand in year 2021 to 294 thousand in 2031. The good labour
market conditions and higher income premiums for individuals with this level of education explain
the continuation of this upward trend.

9
 Despite the increase projected in the youth 15-19 population, post-secondary education
enrolments will limit the growth in the number of school leavers with only a high school
diploma (or less).
School Leavers with High School Diploma and High School Dropouts, 1991-2031
(thousands) (thousands)
projection
120 3,000

100 2,500

80 2,000

60 1,500
Less than High School
High School
40 1,000
Population 15-19 (right)
20 500

0 0
1995

2023
1991
1993

1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021

2025
2027
2029
2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

The number of school leavers with only high school has been trending down since the early 2000s
as their source population (youth aged 15-19) has not been growing rapidly and a larger share of
high school graduates has been continuing their education at the post-secondary level. Despite
the large increase in the number of youth 15-19 years old over the next ten years, the number of
graduates who have completed only high school are expected to continue declining as more high
school graduates are expected to enroll in PSE. As a result, the average annual number of school
leavers with only a high school diploma is expected to fall from the average of 66 thousand over
the period 2012-2021, to the average of 54 thousand over the period 2022-2031.
The number of school leavers with less than high school education is expected to remain very low,
with an annual average of 7,400 over the projection period. Despite an increase in the source
population of youth aged 15-19, low wages, poor working conditions and limited labour market
opportunities for individuals without at least a high school diploma will lead to the majority of
young people attaining at the minimum a high school diploma, while increasing the number of
those finishing their education with some level of PSE.

10
 The share of those with post-secondary education (PSE) in total school leavers is
therefore projected to increase over the period 2022-2031.

Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level

University College High School Less than High School

projection
100%
90%
34.9%
80% 47.0 % 51.3%
70%
75.1%
60% 84.0% 88.8%
50% 40.2%
40% 37.0%
30% 37.5%
20%
21.4%
10% 14.5% 1.5% 1.4%
3.5% 9.8%
0%
2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

As a result, the already high share of Canadian school leavers with PSE is expected to grow
further over the projection period.
Indeed, school leavers with college and university education accounted for 84.0% of the total
number of school leavers over the 2012-2021 period (3.81 million compared to 730 thousand for
school leavers with lower educational attainment). This share is projected to increase to 88.8%
(4.86 million school leavers with PSE) over the 2022-2031 period, driven by the large increase in
the share of school leavers with college and university degrees.
Over the projection period, only 614 thousand school leavers are expected to enter the labour
market without PSE. The number of school leavers with less than high school is expected
to increased slightly from 69 thousand over the 2012-2021 period to 74 thousand over
the period 2022-2031, representing only 1.4% of all school leavers over the projection
period. However, the total number of those with only high school or some post-secondary
education is projected to decline by about 17.9%, from 658 thousand over the 2012-2021 period
to 539 thousand over the 2022-2031 period.

11
 As a result, the educational attainment of Canada’s labour force is expected to
continue rising.
Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1991 - 2031
projection
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Therefore, the educational attainment of Canada’s labour force is expected to continue rising, with
the share of the labour force with a PSE projected to increase to 73.0% in 2031, from 68.7% in
2021. However, with the diminishing difference in the educational attainment between the older
cohorts and the younger cohorts, the rise in the share of people with PSE is projected to be
slower than the one registered during the previous ten years, when it grew by 8.4 percentage
points, from 60.3% in 2011 to 68.7% in 2021.
More specifically, the projected growth in the labour force will be the highest among university
graduates (2.9% average annual growth rate (AAGR) over the 2022-2031 period) and college
graduates (AAGR of 0.6%).
With regards to the labour force participants without PSE, as their projected share of the labour
force will decrease slightly, their overall number is expected to stagnate and begin shrinking. The
size of the labour force represented by those with high school is projected to grow at an annual
average rate of just 0.1% and those with less than high school is projected to fall at an annual
average rate of 1.7%.

12
 However, not all the PSE school leavers are expected to work in occupations usually
requiring PSE.
Projected Distribution of School
Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by
Leavers by Education Level
Level of Education Usually Required*
projection projection
100% 100%
90% 90%
80% 67.7% in 80%
occupations
70% 70%
usually 88.8%
60% requiring 60% with
50% PSE 50% PSE
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031 2022-2031
University
Management University College High School Less than High School
College
High School
* Based on 2016 NOC Less than High School
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

School leavers are estimated at their highest level of education attained and then distributed among
occupations following the historical patterns of school leavers with the same level of education.
Although Canadian school leavers are projected to be more educated (88.8% with PSE), only 67.7% are
expected to work in occupations that usually require PSE or management occupations. This implies a
relatively high incidence of education-occupation mismatch among recent PSE graduates as they leave
school. In other words, a large proportion of school leavers with PSE enter the labour market to work in
occupations that usually require lower levels of education (overqualified). This mismatch over the
projection period represents an increase in comparison with the previous decade.
Part of this mismatch may be transitory as new school leavers need time to completely integrate into the
labour force and into a matching occupation. They may land in lower skilled occupations when they first
enter the labour market. Later, however, they might seek and move to occupations that better match
their qualifications (note that this is taken into account in COPS by the inter-occupational mobility
component).
Note: In the 2016 NOC, all occupations can be clustered into five groups according to the level of
education they usually require. These are occupations that usually require:
• university education (PSE);
• college education, specialized training or apprenticeship training (PSE);
• high school and/or occupation specific training (below PSE);
• only on-the-job training (below PSE).
• The final skill level is Skill Level 0, which includes all management occupations where various levels
of education may be required, but it is usually grouped with those requiring PSE.

13
 Following historical patterns, school leavers are expected to concentrate in occupations
with a large size of employment. A large number of them are in sales and services.
Top 10 Occupations Where the Largest Number of School Leavers
are Expected to Seek Work, 2022-2031
Average Annual School Employment Size
Share in Total
NOC Occupations Leavers as % of 2021 (% of Total 2021
School Leavers
Employment Employment)
6421 Retail salespersons♀ 3.5% 3.6% 2.8%
3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses♀ 2.9% 4.8% 1.7%

4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers♀ 2.4% 3.7% 1.9%

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related
6711 2.0% 3.2% 1.8%
support occupations ♀
2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 1.9% 3.6% 1.5%
Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and
1123 1.7% 4.7% 1.1%
public relations ♀
Computer programmers and interactive media
2174 1.7% 4.2% 1.2%
developers
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates &
3413* Other assisting occupations in support of health 1.7% 2.7% 1.8%
services♀
6611 Cashiers♀ 1.6% 2.8% 1.7%
1111 Financial auditors and accountants♀ 1.5% 3.8% 1.2%

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Occupations where the largest number of school leavers will seek work are usually occupations
with larger employment size. Out of the ten occupations expecting the largest number of school
leavers, four are related to sales and services (10 out of the top 20). This can be explained in part
by the lower skill requirements of entry level occupations, and also because of the relatively larger
employment size of these occupations.
The popular demand for IT services has led to an increase in the number of people registering
and graduating from IT related programs. This explains the 2 ICT occupations (NOCs 2171 and
2174) in the top 10 occupations with the largest number of school leavers.
Finally, women represented more than 50% of the employment in 8 out of these 10 occupations in
2021.

14
Job Seekers from Immigration
– New Immigrants –

15
 In the projection, annual immigration is assumed to represent a relatively higher
share of the population relative to past decades, based on the official immigration
targets set by the Canadian Federal Government for the next few years.
Annual Immigration Level and Rate, 1999-2031
(thousands) (percentage)
Immigration (left scale) Immigration rate (right scale)
480 1.3
440 1.2
400 1.1
360 1.0
320
projection 0.9
280 0.8
240 0.7
200 0.6
Immigration Rate Average,
160 2012-2021 = 0.76% 0.5
120 0.4
1999

2011

2023
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2025

2027

2029

2031
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

The average immigration rate has historically been around 7.6 per 1,000 people in Canada, or
0.76%. Over the 2012-2021 period, this represented an average of 276,000 new immigrants
entering Canada annually (from July to June each year). However, only a fraction of this total has
joined the labour market upon entering Canada, as this number includes children and adults who
may or may not join the labour force. Indeed, new immigrants effectively entering the labour
market represented an average of 136,600 new entrants every year.
Following a significant decline in the number of new immigrants during the pandemic, new
immigration policies target welcoming a significantly larger number of immigrants that in the past.
This will lead to an immigration annual average rate of about 1.1% over the projection period. As a
result, 4.5 million new immigrants are expected to join the Canadian population over the 10-year
projection period.

16
 Projected immigration accounts for a larger share of population growth than observed
in the previous decade.
Population Growth by Demographic Component, Annual Averages
(thousands)
Natural Increase Net Immigration projection
600

500

400

300
88.9%
62.4% 73.2%
200

100
37.6% 26.8%
11.1%
0
2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

In the projection, annual population growth averages about 482 thousand per year over the 2022-
2031 period, compared to 391 thousand over the previous 10-year period.
The share of population growth stemming from net immigration (immigration minus emigration) is
expected to increase to 89% over the 2022-2031 period, compared with 73% for the period 2012-
2021 and 62% for the period 2002-2011. This is due both to an increase in net immigration itself
and a slower natural population increase (births minus deaths).

17
 Immigration is expected to account for a much larger share of labour force growth
over the projection period, compared to the previous 20 years.
Contribution of New Immigrants and Domestic Supply to Total Labour Force Growth:
Annual Averages
(thousands) Domestic Supply (labour force minus new immigrants) New Immigrants
300
projection
250

200 42.1%

150
95.7%
75.6%
100
57.9%
50
24.4% 4.3%
0
2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

The projections show an increase in the net growth of the labour force over the projection period.
This is a consequence of a large projected increase in immigration in comparison to the historical
period. In turn, this will help compensating for the demographic pressures on the labour force
arising from the current wave of baby-boomers entering retirement.
Without immigration, there would be little or no growth in the Canadian labour force over the next
decade. Because of the slowdown in the domestic sources of growth, new immigrants are
anticipated to represent about 96% of the annual average net growth of the labour force over the
projection period, up from 76% during the previous 10 years. In fact, starting in 2026, immigration
is projected to account for 100% of the net growth in the labour force.
Although immigration is the primary source of net growth in the labour force, it is not expected to
be the main source of new labour market entrants in Canada. School leavers will remain as the
main source of new job seekers (see slide 26).

18
 Based on historical patterns, new immigrants looking for work are expected to be
concentrated in sales and service occupations.
Top 10 Occupations Where the Largest Number of
New Immigrants are Expected to Seek Work, 2022-2031
% 2021 Employment in the
NOC Occupations New Immigrants
Occupation
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support
6711 105,800 31.3%
occupations ♀
6421 Retail salespersons ♀ 72,800 13.8%
6731 Light duty cleaners ♀ 66,100 31.0%
3413/ Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other
64,400 18.5%
3414* assisting occupations in support of health services ♀
6322 Cooks 55,100 33.7%
6611 Cashiers ♀ 53,200 16.7%
2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 47,700 16.6%

0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 45,200 14.9%

7511 Transport truck drivers 40,900 13.0%

4411 Home child care providers ♀ 40,100 165.0%

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

In the projection, annual immigration is distributed among occupations based on the distribution
level of recent immigrants (those landed between 2011 and 2015) observed in the 2016 Census
and the variation in employment through time obtained from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for
the period 2006-2021*. Past or future immigration policies that could potentially change this
distribution, such as the Express Entry program, are not explicitly considered in the projections.
However, they are implicitly included in the labour force participation rates obtained from the LFS.
Over the projection period, occupations where the largest number of new immigrants will seek
work are expected to be mainly concentrated in sales and services because there are lower skill
requirements in these entry level occupations. This can be explained by two reasons:
• credentials in some fields might not be well recognized in Canada; and
• some high-skill occupations could require working experience in Canada.
Note that one occupation is in the information technology (IT) field (Information systems analysts
and consultants). The skills typically required to work in IT related occupations tend to be more
globalized and less regulated in Canada. As a result, Canadian companies can more easily
recognize foreign credentials as well as have access a broader labour pool.
_____________________________________________________________________________

*2006 is the earliest year for which data on immigrants specifically is available in the LFS.

19
 New immigrants represent a very important source of job seekers for many occupations,
such as home child care providers and several manufacturing related occupations
Top 10 Occupations Where New Immigrants are Expected to Represent
the Largest Share of 2021 Employment in the Occupation, 2022-2031
% of 2021 Employment in
NOC Occupations New Immigrants
the Occupation
4411 Home child care providers ♀ 40,100 165.0%
Labourers in textile processing & Other labourers in processing,
9616* 30,700 144.8%
manufacturing and utilities
Labourers in food and beverage processing & Labourers in fish
9617* 37,100 87.1%
and seafood processing
7272 Cabinetmakers 3,100 86.1%
Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and
9462 9,500 47.7%
related workers
Harvesting labourers; Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers
8611* 3,600 46.8%
& Logging and forestry labourers
4412 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations♀ 30,700 45.8%
0601 Corporate sales managers 7,400 45.4%
Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers;
9441* Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations; Fabric, fur and leather cutters & 2,300 44.2%
Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing♀

6332 Bakers ♀ 13,200 43.6%

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2021 COPS Projections.

Only three out of the 10 occupations with the highest projected proportion of new immigrants are
in occupations usually requiring post-secondary education. One is a construction trade, one is
related to retail/food services and one is a management occupation.
In three of these occupations, the majority of workers in 2021 were female.

20
 … while the concentration is the lowest in occupations mostly related to the primary
sector.
Top 10 Occupations Where the Smallest Number of
New Immigrants are Expected to Seek Work, 2022-2031
NOC Occupations New Immigrants % of 2021 Employment

4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities♀ 400 5.3%

8220* Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 400 1.6%
8420* Logging and forestry workers 400 5.4%
7360* Train crew operating occupations 200 1.6%
7203 Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades 200 1.6%
8231 Underground production and development miners 100 0.6%
8260* Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 100 1.0%

8241 Logging machinery operators 100 0.7%

8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry 100 0.7%

8440* Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 50 0.7%

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Occupations where the smallest number of new immigrants are projected to seek work are mostly
related to the primary industries. This might be explained by a few reasons:
• primary activity is mostly in rural areas and immigrants tend to settle mostly in large urban
centres;
• some of these occupations are small in terms of employment size; and
• many of these occupations are seasonal and have fewer year-long employment
opportunities.
Only one of these occupations employed more than 50% of women in 2021.

21
 Job Seekers from
Occupational Mobility
– Occupational Movers –

22
 The COPS projections consider two types of occupational mobility:

▪ Vertical Mobility: workers who move into occupations outside their

current skill level. Two are considered:
• Upward mobility: workers who have gained labour force experience
move to higher skilled occupations or management positions.
• Downward mobility: workers who choose to enter lower-skilled
occupations, sometimes as part of their transition towards retirement
or driven by higher salaries, for instance engineers leaving their
occupations to become supervisors in the oil and gas sector.

▪ Horizontal Mobility: workers who move into occupations within the same
skill level (i.e. occupations that usually require the same level of
education).

New inflows do not represent all the sources of labour into occupations. In many occupations,
workers from other occupations represent an important source of hiring. Occupations lose existing
workers, but also gain workers from other occupations. The difference between the number of
workers entering and the number of workers leaving a given occupation is called net occupational
mobility. In the following slide, the term mobility always refers to net mobility in an occupation (or a
skill level). In order to project future net mobility, observed past inter-occupational mobility patterns
are used in conjunction with the estimated projected occupational labour demand to determine
career paths that workers may follow over the projection period.

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 Management occupations are projected to have the largest net inflow of workers from
other occupations while occupations usually requiring university education are expected
to have the largest net outflow of workers.
Projected Number of Workers Moving Between Usual Educational Requirement Clusters,
2022-2031
(in thousands and as a percentage share of base-year employment for each cluster)
600
500
400
300
31.5%
200
4.6%
100
0
-100 -4.7%
-7.2% -15.7%
-200
-300
-400
Management University College education High school On-the-job
education education training
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Management occupations have the largest relative mobility inflows among all skill levels, as many
experienced workers from other skill levels seek to fill management positions left vacant mainly due to
retirement. Over the 2022-2031 period, about 524,000 new managers are expected to come from
occupations in other skill levels, mostly from occupations typically requiring university education.
Moreover, mobility is the main source of supply for managers. Over the coming decade, more workers
are expected to go up the skill ladder to become a manager than established managers leaving for a
non-managerial occupation.
For those working in occupations requiring university education, net mobility is expected to be negative
(-314,000). This is due to the fact that workers in this skill level are the main source of labour for
managerial occupations. The large size also reflects the large outflow or worker in the managerial
occupations due to their retirement volumes, which create numerous job opportunities for potential job
seekers in other occupations.
Job openings in occupations usually requiring university education are either filled by overqualified
workers employed in occupations requiring lower levels of education (those who started working in a
lower skilled level occupation before seeking work in a new position better reflecting their qualifications)
or by school leavers with a university degree. It is also possible that these openings will remain unfilled
in some occupations if there is a shortage of workers with the necessary skills and knowledge.
Net mobility in occupations requiring college education is expected to be positive (+293,000). Similarly
than for occupations typically requiring university education, many workers with a college degree start
working in an occupation that only requires high-school or on-the-job training, before seeking work in a
new position. This is also reflected by about 504,000 workers expected to move up from these
occupations that do not require PSE education in the coming decade.

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Total Job Seekers

25
 School leavers will continue to be the main source of job seekers over the
coming decade.
Sources of New Job Seekers: Totals
(thousands)
School Leavers Immigrants Others
9,000 Net Job Seekers:
7.4 M
8,000
Net Job Seekers:
7,000
Net Job Seekers: 6.0 M
6,000
5.2 M
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031
projection
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Even though new immigrants are expected to account for the majority of the net growth in the labour force over
the next decade (see slide 18), they will still represent a relatively small share of the total number of people who
enter the Canadian labour market each year.
In fact, the number of young people coming out of Canada’s education system (with or without any certificate,
high school, or a post-secondary diploma), the so-called school leavers, is much larger than the number of new
immigrants:
• over the 2012-2021 period, approximately 137,000 new immigrants and 454,000 school leavers were
estimated to have entered the labour market yearly;
• over the projection period, an average of approximately 236,000 new immigrants are expected to enter the
labour market every year, compared with approximately 548,000 new seekers coming from the education
system;
• in the last decade, the ratio of the number of school leavers to that of new immigrants was about 3.32,
compared to 2.31 over the projection period.
Hence, as the Canadian education system is expected to remain the primary source of new job seekers for the
labour market, it will be important to ensure that the qualifications of these job seekers properly reflect the
labour market needs.
Note: In the chart, the category “Others” includes a series of small components capturing labour market inflows
and outflows such as those returning to school, labour market returns, and students that seek work while being
registered in education programs. This category was negligible in the past, but is expected to become much
larger – and negative, over the projection period. The total volume of job seekers will be reduced by about 500
thousand seekers (employed and unemployed) dropping out of the labour market due to discouragement or
retirement of jobless workers. The outcome of this outflow will result in a reduction in the number of unemployed
workers from 1.5 million in 2021 to about 1.15 million in 2031.

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 Two-thirds of all job seekers are expected to look for work in occupations
usually requiring post-secondary education (PSE), or in management
occupations.
Job Seekers by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031
School Leavers Immigrants Mobility Others
Thousands
3,000 35.4%

2,500 24.8%
2,000
1,500
1,000 9.9%

500
0
-500
-1,000
Management University College/apprenticeship High school On-the-job training
occupations education education education
Sources: ESDC 2022 COPS projections

27

COPS projects a total of 7.4 million job seekers (from the school system, immigration and other
sources) to enter the labour market over the projection period.
Over two-thirds (70.2% - around 5.2 million individuals) of these entrants are anticipated to be in
occupations that usually require postsecondary education (college, university or vocational) or in
management occupations. At a more detailed level:
- More than half of new immigrants (52.8%) are expected to pursue work in occupations
generally requiring postsecondary education or in management positions;
- Upward occupational mobility is also expected to add job seekers for management
occupations and those requiring college education. This upward mobility is mainly the
result of previously mismatched skilled workers seeking work in occupations that better
match their skills as well as promotion into management ranks.
About one-third of job seekers (around 2.2 million) are expected to look for work in occupations
requiring only high school education or on-the-job training.

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 Occupations projected to have the largest ratios of new job seekers to 2021
employment tend to either be smaller in size, or related to management, services or
health…
Top 10 Occupations with the Largest Proportion of New Job Seekers, 2022-2031
Employment New Job Seekers as a %
NOC Occupations
2021 of 2021 Employment
6522 Pursers and flight attendants ♀ 6,200 125.8%
7272 Cabinetmakers 3,600 105.6%
0430* Managers in public protection services 4,400 100.0%

6321 Chefs 49,600 90.5%

0510 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport ♀ 11,300 77.0%

3213 Animal health technologists and veterinary technician ♀ 23,100 74.9%
0213 Computer and information systems managers 72,500 73.7%
3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors ♀ 29,800 73.2%
0632 Accommodation service managers 56,100 72.0%
Airline ticket and service agents & Ground and water transport ticket
6523 11,300 69.0%
agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks ♀
♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

The majority of occupations projected to have the largest proportion of job seekers suffered job
losses during the pandemic. As most of them recover, they are expected to welcome also a large
number of job seekers, which results in a very high proportion of job seekers to employment in
2021. This is the case of occupations related to the service and sales sector, for example, Pursers
and flight attendants (NOC 6522); Chefs (NOC 6321); and (Airline ticket and service agents &
Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks (NOC
6523/6524).

Four of the occupations in the list are in the management area, where workers are usually older
and closer to retirement. Most workers in management occupations have worked there way up
over the course of their career. As a result, it is expected that a larger share of workers in such
occupations will retire over the projection period, creating job openings that will require filling. For
these occupations, mobility is expected to play an important role in the source of job seekers, as
the majority of potential new managers are already in the labour market.

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 … while the occupations projected to have the largest number of job seekers tend to
be large in terms of employment.
Top 10 Occupations with the Largest Number of New Job Seekers, 2022-2031
New Job Seekers
Employment
NOC Occupations New Job Seekers as a % of 2021
2021
Employment
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates &
3413* 347,400 170,100 49,0 %
Other assisting occupations in support of health services ♀
6421 Retail salespersons ♀ 527,900 168,300 31,9 %

2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 288,100 157,800 54,8 %

7511 Transport truck drivers 315,600 144,400 45,8 %

3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses ♀ 327,000 143,700 43,9 %
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related
6711 337,900 137,600 40,7 %
support occupations ♀
1311 Accounting technician and bookkeepers ♀ 206,500 108,000 52,3 %
6731 Light duty cleaners ♀ 213,000 108,000 50,7 %
4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers ♀ 353,600 105,700 29,9 %
0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 302,400 99,000 32,7 %

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2021 COPS Projections.

The ranking of the 10 occupations projected to have the largest number of new job seekers
reflects the fact that most of these occupations are large in terms of employment size. In fact,
employment in those 10 occupations (out of 293 occupations) accounted for about 17.1% of total
employment in 2021.
Four out of these 10 occupations are related to sales and services.

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 Occupations usually requiring less than post-secondary education are projected to
have the smallest ratios of new job seekers to 2018 employment.
Top 10 Occupations with the Smallest Proportion of New Job Seekers, 2022-2031
Employment New Job Seekers as a %
NOC Occupations
2021 of 2021 Employment
6621 Service station attendants 8,300 -48.2%
6521 Travel counsellors ♀ 9,800 -33.7%
Harvesting labourers; Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers &
8611* 7,700 5.2%
Logging and forestry labourers
9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing 18,100 12.2%
Pulp mill machine operators; Papermaking and finishing machine
9432* 19,600 13.8%
operators& Paper converting machine operators
8614* Mine labourers & Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers 8,300 15.7%
7610* Trades helpers and labourers 110,700 16.2%
Industrial and manufacturing engineers & Metallurgical and materials
2141* 25,300 16.6%
engineers
2152* Landscape architects; Urban and land use planners & Land surveyors 15,900 17.0%

8420* Logging and forestry workers 6,700 17.9%

♀ Occupations where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical data) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.

Eight of the 10 occupations projected to have the smallest ratios of new job seekers (total
projected job seekers as a proportion of their respective 2021 employment) are classified as
typically requiring only high-school education or on the job-training. These occupations are usually
less attractive for job seekers as they are often less paid, have limited career advancement
prospects and may be physically demanding.
Occupations that have a negative proportion of job seekers are expected to have job losses over
the projection period. Employment in these occupations has been strongly trending down over the
past 20 years, which results in a massive outflow of workers towards other occupations. In other
words, the volume of workers leaving these occupations in search for better opportunities
outpaces the volumes of school leavers and immigrants seeking jobs.

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