一、(20%) Suppose the National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER) is conducting

the global economic outlook for 2014. NBER randomly samples 965 persons and
finds that 531 persons are optimistic about the US economy for this year.
1. Build the 95% confidence interval to estimate the proportion of people who are
optimistic about the US economy in 2014.
2. Based on aforementioned estimate results, could NBER infer that a majority of
people is optimistic about the US economy?
3. If you are not satisfied with the estimate results and think the interval you got is
too wide, how could you improve and obtain the more precise estimates?

二、(20%)Fisherman in South California claim the average size of local lobsters is

greater than 82 meters. Suppose you want to determine whether the true mean size
of lobsters is higher than what the fishermen said, following samples come from
your research team. (Significance level=0.05)
----------------------------
70 , 86 , 88 , 93 , 104 , 99
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1. Specify the statistic hypotheses
2. Process your test
3. Make conclusions based on your test results

三、(15%) Engineers want to know the variation in product length and further to
understand if they are consistent with company production standards. 91samples
obtained from Type-015 machine show that the sample average and sample
standard deviation are 1005.8 and 375.2 centimeters respectively.
1. Use the sample data to find a 95% confidence interval for the engineer's interest.
2. State the required conditions making the confidence interval valid.

四、(15%)某茶飲公司品管部門希望了解其生產之罐裝茶飲重量是否符合規定
(每罐 300 毫升)，檢測人員隨機抽取 50 罐飲料進行檢測，結果得出樣本均數
298 毫升，樣本變異數 55 毫升^2。假設顯著水準 0.10，試問：
1. 請替品管人員設立適當的虛無假說及對立假說
2. 計算檢定 p-value，並據此寫出結論
五、(30%)假設母體機率分配如下:
x 0 2 6
f(x) 0.25 0.5 0.25
現自該母體採取抽出放回之方式隨機抽取 2 個樣本(x1、x2)，試問:
1. 試求母體均數及變異數
2. 令 x=(x1+x2)/2，寫出 x 之抽樣分配
3. 試求 x 之期望值與變異數，比較其與母體均數及變異數之關係