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Social Security and Households' Saving
Social Security and Households' Saving
Social Security and Households' Saving
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND HOUSEHOLDS' SAVING*
Orazio P. Attanasio and Agar Brugiavini
This paper provides new evidence on the substitutability between private and
pension wealth by exploiting the Italian pension reform of 1992. We use a differ
ence-in-difference estimator that exploits the differential effects of the reform on
individuals belonging to several year-of-birth cohorts and different occupational
groups. We find convincing evidence that saving rates increase as a result of a
reduction in pension wealth. By allowing for the possibility that substitutability
changes with age, we find that substitutability is particularly high (and precisely
estimated) for workers between 35 and 45.
I. Introduction
The characterization of the determinants of households' sav
ing decisions is crucially important both for providing a frame
work capable of explaining the accumulation of wealth and for a
wide variety of policy issues. According to the life cycle theory,
individual savings depend, among other things, on the amount of
resources available (through public pensions) after retirement,
when earnings typically peter out. While the inverse relation
between future benefit entitlements and household saving seems
intuitive and natural, whether public pension wealth constitutes
a perfect substitute for financial savings is an empirical question
that has not been settled. The aim of this paper is to measure the
elasticity of household saving to changes in future pension enti
tlements. This elasticity is obviously related to the degree of
substitutability between pension and bequeathable wealth. Such
an exercise is of crucial importance to public policy, especially
when, as in most Western economies, major reforms of the pen
sion systems are being considered.
There are several reasons why pension wealth might not be
a good substitute for financial saving: future pension benefits are
* The authors wish to thank Margherita Borella, who skillfully organized the
data in the initial part of the project. Erich Battistin, Nicola Rossi, Ignazio Visco,
and Guglielmo Weber have discussed with us many aspects of the research; Alan
Auerbach, Luigi Guiso, and Reinhold Schnabel made many useful comments.
Useful comments were also received at the meeting "Ricerche Quantitative per la
Politica Econ?mica" organized jointly by the Bank of Italy and the Centro ?nter
universitario Discipline Economiche, S.A.DI.BA, Perugia, November 1995. We are
particularly grateful to Costas Meghir for some very useful suggestions. Agar
Brugiavini expresses gratitude to the Consiglio Nazionale di Ricerca (grant
96.01418.CT10) and to the European Union (Training and Mobility of Research
ers, contract FMRX CT90016) for generous financial support. The usual dis
claimer applies.
? 2003 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2003
1075
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1076 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1077
2. The term social security seems to have different uses in the United States
on the one hand, and in the United Kingdom and the rest Europe, on the other
hand. In this paper we will be using the U. S. meaning and consider social security
and public pension wealth ("pension wealth") as synonymous. In fact, in Italy
there are basically no occupational pension plans.
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1078 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
3. Miniaci and Weber [1999] provide a detailed analysis into the causes of the
1993 recession and found a relevant role played by the 1992 social security reform.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1079
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1080 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1081
3^2 y3 b
yi + 1 + r (1 + rf +
c2 c3 c4
^ + 7T?,-T + 7^?-v>. +
'* (1 + r) (1 + rf (1 + rf
Earnings in the three periods (y?, i - 1, 2, 3) should be
preted as net earnings, r is the constant interest rate,
discount factor, and I/7 the elasticity of intertemporal sub
tion. The solution of this problem is trivial. In particular, it is
to show that
y 1 ~ C\
(2) ---=1
yx 1 + d + d2 + ds
X
y2/yi yJyi blyx
1 + 1 + r + (1 + r)2 (1 + r
y2 ~~ ^2 d
(3) ~~JT~ =1~l + d + d2 + d3
x
(1 + r)yx y3/y2 b/
y2 (1 + r) (1 +
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1082 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
y 3 - C3
(4) l
1 + d + d2 + d3
X
(1 +
+
r)Vi
+1 + (1
6/y3 +
3^3 3^3 d + r)
Equations (3) and (4) can be used to derive the effect on second
and third-period saving (and consumption) of an anticipated
change in pension wealth. However, if we want to consider the
effect of an unanticipated change in pension wealth on consump
tion and wealth for a consumer aged two or three, at the current
age, we have to consider the reoptimization problem of this indi
vidual who has saved a certain amount in period 1 (and 2). The
reoptimization will yield saving rates as
y2-c2
(3') y2 1 + d + d2
b/y2
X 1 + (1 + r)A1 [ yjy2 t
3>2 1 + r (1 + r)?
3^3 - c3
(4') (1 + r)A2 + + b/y3
ys 1+d ys 1+r
x (1 + r)2A, | (1 + r)y2 | i
ys ys l + r
Once again, if we assume that there are
tion (4") is equivalent to (4') and (4). Howev
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1083
equation (4") is the relevant one for a consumer who has received
a surprise in period 2 and is observed in period 3.
The expressions above make clear, within the framework of a
very simple model, how to discount future benefits and how to
relate them to the current level of saving rates. The point we want
to stress is that the relationship depends not only on how far
away the consumer is from retirement, but also on when in her
life cycle she experiences the reform and when she is observed by
the econometrician relative to the surprise reform. Gale [1998]
has recently stressed the importance of the different planning
horizon for individuals of different ages. Our framework also
stresses (and our empirical work exploits) a related implication of
a standard life cycle model. The change in saving generated by a
change in pension wealth (i.e., by the reform) is greater, the closer
the individual is to retirement age. This reflects the fact that
younger individuals have a longer horizon over which to absorb
the "unexpected" shock to pension wealth.
The way in which the coefficient on the pension wealth
income ratio changes with age depends on the values of the
parameters that characterize the utility function. When we con
struct our "pension wealth" variable, we take them into explicit
consideration. In particular, in order to compute the implied
adjustments (appropriately modified to consider an arbitrary
length of life and a variable retirement age), we will be making
specific assumptions about the rate at which individuals discount
the future and about their preferences. It is easy to show that in
a more general model with N periods of work before retirement,
the coefficient of the ratio of the present discounted value of
benefits to current income in equations (3) and (4) is equal to a
factor k(a,d), defined as follows:
1 1-d
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1084 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
tioned above, this might not be the case. For one thing, public
pension wealth is substantially less liquid than financial wealth.
Furthermore, it accrues over the retirement period with a prede
termined pattern and, therefore, cannot be adjusted to particular
changes in needs.7 It is therefore plausible to assume that public
pension wealth is not a perfect substitute of private savings.
Indeed, many of the empirical studies of these issues, in the
tradition of the King and Dicks-Mireaux [1982] paper, measured
explicitly the degree of substitutability between pension and fi
nancial wealth. For these reasons, in the empirical application
below, we allow the coefficient on our definition of pension wealth
to be age dependent and check whether and how much it differs
from minus one. In other words, we interpret the coefficient on
our variable as a measure of the substitutability between pension
and financial wealth.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1085
should save more than individuals who expect high future earn
ings. We capture these effects in two different ways. As we use
projection of future earnings to compute expected pension wealth,
we have as a by-product of our procedure some estimates of
expected future earnings. As they are likely to be error-ridden, we
instrument for them using the same interactions of group and
time dummies that we use for pension wealth. Alternatively, we
simply assume that variation in future earnings is captured by
the flexible age and cohort effects that we allow in our estimation.
It turns out that the two procedures do not yield very different
results.
To be more precise, we estimate the following equation:
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1086 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
9. See Heckman and Robb [1985] for a discussion of the method and Eissa
[1995] and Blundell, Duncan, and Meghir [1998] for recent applications of the
method to female labor supply behavior. Meyer [1995a, 1995b] provides a general
discussion and applications on the effects of unemployment insurance.
10. Note that our sample is, by and large, made of different individual
households observed over time. However, the sample also contains a small panel
component.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1087
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1088 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
11. See, for example, Guiso, Jappelli, and Terlizzese [1994] for the former
argument and Guiso and Jappelli [1994] for the latter.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1089
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1090 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
15. This is a peculiar feature of the Italian Social Security system: the early
retirement option allowed workers to retire at any age if they had completed a
given number of years of tax payments. This eligibility requirement varied be
tween funds: 35 years for men and women in the private sector, twenty years for
men in the public sector and fifteen years for women in the public sector.
16. Years with particularly low income were excluded from the computations.
Past earnings were converted to current prices using the rate of inflation of the
CPI.
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TABLE I
Some Key Features of the Social Security System before and after (S
Prereform
Private sector FPLD Public sector Private
a. To be more specific, this is 65 for Central Government Employees and 60 for Local Government Employees. Ho
eligibility requirement due to the early retirement option.
b. The pensionable earnings calculation is actually made on a monthly basis both in the private sector (where we t
and in the public sector.
c. For further details on the Amato reform, see Brugiavini [1999] and Brugiavini and Fornero [2001].
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1092 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1093
where sry and sr0 are the fitted values of the nonparametric
regressions for the individuals with less (y) and more (o) than
fifteen years of contributions in 1992. We compute the standard
errors of these effects by bootstrapping our sample, also taking
into account individual level clusters for the panel component of
the sample.
When applied to the whole sample of private sector and
public sector employees, we get an effect of 0.049 with a standard
error of 0.098. As the effect of the reform was much higher on
public sector employees, we redo the exercise for this group and
for the private sector employees separately. For the former we
obtain an effect of 0.17 with a standard error of 0.091. For the
latter group we obtain an effect of 0.090 with a standard error of
0.080.
This constitutes a first piece of evidence, albeit imprecise,
that the Amato reform had a differential effect on individuals
whose pension wealth changed differently as a consequence of the
reform. To better quantify this effect, we use explicit estimates of
pension wealth, whose estimation we now proceed to discuss.
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1094 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1095
18. The hypothesis that group membership is constant over time is particu
larly problematic for young and old households, as household headship might
change endogenously with age at the beginning and at the end of the life cycle, as
household formation and dissolution are endogenous to saving decisions. This
consideration should make us cautious in interpreting the results we present
below.
19. While in estimating earnings growth, we use up to seven cohorts, we use
only four cohorts in forming groups to obtain instruments for the changes in
pension wealth. These were chosen according to the "seniority" rules described
above.
20. In this group we also have included employees who do not belong to the
major social security administration Private Sector Employees Fund (INPS), such
as managers, journalists, actors, and a few other employees.
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1096 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
TABLE II
Mean Net Household Pension Wealth (Panel A) and Mean Saving Rates
(Panel B) for Different Groups (Pension Wealth in Millions
of 1994 Italian lira, Saving Rates in Percentage Points)
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1097
TABLE II
(continued)
Mean saving rates are computed as mean saving over mean income. Net social security wealth i
present discounted value of future benefits minus contributions due. For the youngest cohort there are
heads of household collecting benefits, but these are typically not old age benefits. This is why the row for t
youngest cohort in the group "retired" appears empty both in Panel A and in Panel B. The group of re
households is not used in the econometric analysis.
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1098 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
TABLE III
Changes in Mean Net Household Pension Wealth (Panel A) and
Changes in Mean Saving Rates (Panel B) for Different Groups
(Percentage Change for Two-Year Intervals)
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1099
-.2 0~ .2
changes in pension wealth
Figure I
Changes in Median Saving Rate against Changes in Median Pension Wealth
Figure I shows changes in median saving rates against changes in median
pension wealth on the sample of active households (nonpensioners) for the four
years (four data points in each group are lost in taking differences). Pension
wealth has been rescaled before taking the differences and is in thousands of 1994
million lira. The numbers in the scatter diagram represent the groups: for exam
ple, 13 stands for cohort 1 (youngest cohort) in occupation 3 (occupation other).
The regression is based on 33 observations, and the estimated slope is -0.153 (s.e.
= 0.099).
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1100 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1101
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1102 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
TABLE IV
Estimating the Effect of Pension Wealth on Saving
Dependent Variable: Saving Rate
Baseline Specification with No Interaction Terms
(1) All years (2) 89-91-93 (3) All years (4) 89-91-93
(N = 18598) (N = 14522) (N = 18598) (N = 14522)
Pension wealtht -0.328 -0.037 -0.037 -0.037
(0.023) (0.045) (0.032) (0.042)
Expected value of 0.089 0.004
future earnings (0.244) (0.443)
share of earners 0.310 0.278 0.324 0.278
(0.037) (0.040) (0.043) (0.075)
Share of children 0.099 0.054 0.086 0.053
(0.044) (0.049) (0.062) (0.077)
Secondary school 0.016 0.060 0.016 0.060
(0.007) (0.013) (0.007) (0.017)
College or more 0.073 0.118 0.076 0.118
(0.014) (0.017) (0.019) (0.018)
Year 1991 -0.014 -0.014 -0.015 -0.014
(0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.002)
Year 1993 -0.080 -0.080 -0.073 -0.079
(0.031) (0.034) (0.033) (0.050)
Year 1995 -0.083 -0.069
(0.032) (0.039)
Group dummies Y Y Y Y
Number of IV 51 39 51 39
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1103
TABLE V
Estimating the Effect of Pension Wealth on Saving
Dependent Variable: Saving Rate
Specification with Full Interaction Terms in the Instruments Set
(1) All years (2) 89-91-93 (3) All years (4) 89-91-93
(N = 18598) (N = 14522) (N = 18598) (N = 14522)
Saving rates are defined as (Income - Consumption)/Income. Pension wealth (PW) is defined as net
pension wealth over current income by 1000. Expected future earnings (FE) are the present value of future
earnings over current earnings by 1000. Reference categories for the dummy variables are "no education or
low education" and "year 1989." Standard errors in parentheses are robust standard errors, allowing for
cluster effects based on cohort-occupation groups.
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1104 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
estimated coefficient estimated coefficient
Figure II
Life Cycle Pattern of the Estimated Substitution Coefficient
Figure II contains the estimated coefficient against age for the full sample of
four years and for the specifications containing interaction terms of pension
wealth with age dummies. Top-left panel: specification with no future earnings
(Table V, column 1); top right panel: specification with future earnings (Table V,
column 3); (3) bottom-left panel: specification without future earnings with year *
cohort used as control (Table VI, column 1); and (4) bottom right panel: specifi
cation with future earnings and year * cohort used as controls (Table VI, column
3).
22. The rank condition is again satisfied. The F-statistic for the hypothesis
that time * occupation effects in pension wealth are zero after controlling for time,
group, and time * cohort interaction is F(6, 18573) = 2.29 which has ap-value
of 0.0328.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1105
TABLE VI
Estimating the Effect of Pension Wealth on Saving
Dependent Variable: Saving Rate
Specification with Interaction Terms for Years and Cohorts
Included as Controls
(1) All years (2) 89-91-93 (3) All years (4) 89-91-93
(N - 18598) (N = 14522) (N = 18598) (N = 14522)
Saving rates are defined as (Income - Consumption)/Income. Pension wealth (PW) is defined as net
pension wealth over current income by 1000. Expected future earnings (FE) are the present value of future
earnings over current earnings by 1000. Reference categories for the dummy variables are "no education or
low education" and "year 1989." Standard errors in parentheses are robust standard errors according to
cluster effects based on cohort-occupation groups.
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1106 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
TABLE VII
Estimating the Effect of Pension Wealth on Saving
Dependent Variable: Saving Rate
Specification with Interaction Terms for Years and
Occupation Included as Controls
Saving rates are defined as (Income - Consumption)/Income. Pension wealth (PW) is defined as net
pension wealth over current income by 1000. Expected future earnings (FE) are the present value of future
earnings over current earnings by 1000. Reference categories for the dummy variables are "no education or
low education" and "year 1989." Standard errors in parentheses are robust standard errors, allowing for
cluster effects based on cohort-occupation groups.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1107
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1108 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
V. Conclusions
In this paper we have estimated the effect that public pen
sion wealth has on personal household saving. For this purpose
we have studied the 1992 Italian pension reform. This episode is
particularly useful for several reasons. First of all, we have two
large and consistent household surveys that immediately precede
and follow the reform. Second, the reform did not change the
nature of the pension system, in that the Italian system remained
an unfunded defined-benefits system. The 1992 reform, however,
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1109
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Appendix
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1111
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1112 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
B. Group Definitions
There are two levels to the analysis. At a first level we
distinguish groups of workers in order to model earnings growth;
at a second level we define groups in order to estimate the effect
of changes in pension wealth on saving rates. The two sets of
definitions are consistent; however, we use a finer grouping at the
former level than at the latter. In particular, at the first level we
distinguish seven cohorts, gender, three occupational categories,
and three education levels. At the second level we focus our
attention on the household rather than on the individual, and
given the reduction in sample size, we form groups based only on
the age of the head of the household, and we reduce the number
of cohorts to four. The definition of cohort in the second stage was
chosen in order to match the seniority levels in 1993 that trig
gered changes in the treatment of past contribution according to
the Amato reform.
C. -Year-of-Birth-Cohorts
In the estimation of the age-earnings profile, we use seven
year-of-birth cohorts: the focus here was to define cohorts in order
to capture productivity changes. The choice of the size of each
cohort is partially constrained by the coding of age contained in
the SHIW before the 1984 Survey, where age was provided in
fixed bands of approximately ten years each. Ideally, in order to
measure earnings' growth, one would like to follow each cohort
back in time as far as possible. In the SHIW this is not possible in
a direct way because individuals within a given age-band could
belong to more than one cohort. In order to overcome this prob
lem, we adopted a simple weighted average measure of mean
(median) earnings, which provides unbiased estimates of the
actual mean (median) earnings of each cohort in each year. The
cohorts we use are the following: workers born before 1918, those
born between 1918 and 1924, those born between 1925 and 1933,
between 1934 and 1940, between 1941 and 1949, between 1950
and 1955, and after 1955.
A slightly different approach is taken when relating saving
rates to pension wealth (and other controls). As explained in the
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1113
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1114 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
G. Retired
We use both an earnings criterion and a self-reported char
acteristic. We consider retired all individuals who are not active
and are self-reported retired and do not receive earnings. These
are not necessarily all old-age pensioners, as there could be DI
pensioners or young people drawing a survivor's benefit.
H. Other
These are mainly self-employed individuals. A few other peo
ple receiving earnings from employment fall within this group:
top-level managers and other special funds (e.g., actors). Hence,
this is essentially a residual group. The reason for this choice is
twofold: on the one hand, we need groups that are exhaustive of
the population; on the other hand, it is crucial to have a satisfac
tory sample size. Nothing would prevent us from distinguishing a
smaller group of actual self-employed individuals, plus define a
fifth group of others. However, the information provided in SHIW
would not allow for the identification of some of the activities in
self-employment, particularly in the arts and crafts categories.
Hence by following this approach, we would suffer from two
drawbacks: on the one hand, the self-employed group would be
rather small; and, on the other hand, we would leave out some
important groups of self-employed workers.
/. Educational Groups
These enter both at the first level of the analysis (earnings
projections) and as instruments in some of the specifications we
estimate. The educational groups we consider are roughly com
parable to the following U. S. categories: (1) No education?high
school dropouts, (2) a secondary level education which we could
call "some college," and (3) college graduates and above. The age
earnings profiles for the highly educated group are much steeper:
this has direct implications for the earnings growth parameter
entering the computation of social security wealth.
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1115
28. The social security tax rate for employees ranges between 7.45 percent of
gross earnings in 1991 to 8.34 percent in 1993. Hence the present value of future
taxes, up to retirement age, is a rather small fraction of gross pension wealth. This
is because, as explained in the text, we gross up net earnings taking into consid
eration only the tax rate of the worker, while we disregard the tax rate of the
employer. Hence we also exclude future social security taxes of the employer,
which amount to approximately 17 percent of gross earnings.
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1116 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND SAVING 1117
TABLE VIII
Mean Values of the Relevant Variables for the Entire Sample and the
Regression Sample (Pension Wealth in Millions of 1994 Italian lira,
Saving Rates in Percentage Points)
Regression
Entire sample sample
Number of observations 32212 18598
Age 53.6 43.5
Year of birth 1938 1948
Number of earners in the household 1.7
Number of children in the household 0.60
Private sector employees 0.24 0
Public sector employees 0.17 0.30
"Other" active head of household 0.17 0.28
Retired 0.41 ?
Net pension wealth 710.5 937.3
Expected future earnings 215.6 368.6
No education or elementary school 0.39 0.30
Secondary school 0.52 0.61
College degree 0.09 0.09
Born after 1957 0.12 0.20
Born 1945-1957 0.28 0.45
Born 1935-1944 0.21 0.27
Born 1903-1934 0.39 0.06
Saving rate 0.16 0.15
Expected retirement age 60.22 60.2
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