Chapter 1

Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability
Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills
Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 1 Page 4
1 5
a)  0.25 b)  0.83
4 6
0.25  100%  25% 0.83  100%  83.3%
2 13
c)  0.6 d)  0.65
3 20
0.6  100%  66.6% 0.65  100%  65%
9 93 13 13  13
a)  b) 
12 12  3 52 52  13
3 1
 
4 4
22 16 16  4
c) is in lowest terms. d) 
35 36 36  4
4

9
1 1 1 2 1 4 3 8
a)    b)   
6 3 6 6 4 6 12 12
3 11
 
6 12
1
 7
2  0.916
12
1
 0.5 0.916  100%  91.6%
2
0.5  100%  50%
3 1 9 4 1 4 1
c)    d) 1   
4 3 12 12 4 4 4
5 3
 
12 4
MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions 1

5 3
 0.416  0.75
12 4
0.416  100%  41.6% 0.75  100%  75%
1 1 1 1 2 2
a)   b)  
6 2 12 4 3 12
1
1 
 0.083 6
12
0.083  100%  8.3% 1
 0.16
6
0.16  100%  16.6%
2 5 10 5 3 15
c)   d)  
3 6 18 12 10 120
5 1
 
9 8
5 1
 0.5  0.125
9 8
0.5  100%  55.5% 0.125  100%  12.5%
a) There are a total of 10 counters. The ratio of red counters to the total number of counters is
3
.
10
2 1
b) The ratio of blue counters to the total number of counters is , or .
10 5
5 1
The ratio of yellow counters to the total number of counters is , or .
10 2
c) The red counters represent 30% of the total number of counters. The blue counters represent
20% of the total number of counters. The yellow counters represent 50% of the total number of
counters.
hits 10
a) 
times at bat 35
10
b)  0.286
35
2 MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions

hits 10
c) 
400 35
10
hits   400
35
 114
This player would have about 114 hits in 400 times at bat.
a) Random: The coin is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
b) Non-random: The intersection is not entered unless it is safe.
c) Non-random: you select exactly what you want.
d) Random: Without looking, each candy is equally likely to be chosen.
Answers may vary.

a) rolling a die
b) selecting your favourite pair of jeans to wear
1
a) of the deck are spades.
4
6
b) , or about 11.5% of the deck are red face cards.
52
a) Rolling a 2 can only happen in one way: 1 and 1.
b) Rolling a 7 can happen in six ways: 6 and 1, 5 and 2, 4 and 3, 3 and 4, 2 and 5, 1 and 6.
c) Rolling a 1 is not possible.
d) Rolling doubles can happen in six ways: 1 and 1, 2 and 2, 3 and 3, 4 and 4, 5 and 5, 6 and 6.
e) A perfect square (4 or 9) can happen in seven ways: 1 and 3, 2 and 2, 3 and 1; 3 and 6, 4 and
5, 5 and 4, 6 and 3.

10
a) The class’s favourite is chicken. , or about 37% of the class chose this meal.
27
21 7
b) , or of the class did not choose lasagna.
27 9
3 1
c) Answers may vary. What percent of the class chose fish? , or of the class chose fish.
27 9
Chapter 1 Section 1 Simple Probabilities
Chapter 1 Section 1 Example 1 Your Turn Page 9
a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 8 + 4 + 8 + 12, or 32.

n(O ) n( R ) n( P ) n(G )
P (O )  P( R)  P( P)  P (G ) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
8 4 8 12
   
32 32 32 32
1 1 1 3
   
4 8 4 8
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on orange is , or 0.25, or 25%.
4
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on red is , or 0.125, or 12.5%.
8
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on purple is , or 0.25, or 25%.
4
3
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on green is , or 0.375, or 37.5%.
8

b) Answers may vary. Based on the statistical probabilities, the spinner could be one-quarter
orange, one-eighth red, one-quarter purple, and three-eighths green.
c) It is possible that there is a fifth colour, but that the arrow did not land on it in any of these 32
spins.
a) The total number surveyed is n(T) = 48 + 42 + 15 + 4 + 6, or 115.

Use this value to determine the experimental probability for each type of television service.
n( A)
Television Service Tally Experimental Probability,
n(T )
48
Cable 48  0.417...
115
42
Satellite 42  0.365...
115
15
Internet 15  0.130...
115
4
Antenna 4  0.034...
115
6
None 6  0.052...
115
The experimental probability of a consumer using cable is about 42%, satellite is about 37%,
Internet is about 13%, antenna is about 3%, and none is about 5%.
b) Answers may vary. For example, the cable company would be interested in these results for
marketing purposes. They can claim to be the most popular.
c) Answers may vary. Over time, I believe that Internet television service will increase and
cable/satellite will decrease. Access to watching TV over the Internet will increase with sales of
smart TVs and as networks make more programming available.
Answers may vary.

a) In Ontario, Canada, July is a summer month. Therefore, the probability of a snow day in July
is highly unlikely. A reasonable subjective probability of this event occurring is 0.01.
b) The sun always sets in the west. Therefore, the probability of the sun setting in the west
tonight is guaranteed. A reasonable subjective probability of this event occurring is 1.
c) The next person to enter the school cafeteria will male or female. Therefore, a reasonable
subjective probability of the next person to enter the cafeteria will be female is 0.5.

Chapter 1 Section 1 R1 Page 12
a) Experimental probability is probability based on experimental trials. It is calculated as the

number of times an outcome happens divided by total number of trials.
b) Experimental probability is a useful tool for making predictions. It can tell you what might
happen and how likely it is to occur based on what has been observed.
c) While experimental probability can be close enough to help with decision making, it is based
on an experiment. Conditions or circumstances may change and the next experiment could result
in different experimental probabilities.
a) If the probability of an outcome is 0, then the event is impossible.
b) If the probability of an outcome is 1, then the event is certain to happen.
c) The probability of an outcome will always have a value between 0 and 1, because this is the
range representing impossible to certain.
a) #probability an estimate of how likely something will occur based on intuition
b) Answers may vary. Example: I think there is a 0.95 probability that Canada will win the gold
medal in women’s hockey.
Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 1 Page 13
3
The experimental probability of rolling a 2 with this die is , or 0.25. Answer C.
12
4
a) The experimental probability of this coin coming up heads is , or 0.4.
10
b) A coin is tossed 10 times and comes up heads 4 times. This means that it came up tails 10 – 4,
6
or 6 times. The experimental probability of this coin coming up heads is , or 0.6.
10
21
a) The experimental probability that Helena can make a successful free throw is , or 0.7.
30

b) Helena successfully made 21 out of 30 free throw attempts. If Helena makes 5 out of the next
10 shots, her successful attempts become 26 and total attempts become 40. Her new overall
26
experimental probability of scoring is , or 0.65.
40
c) Since the two experimental probabilities of her scoring were both less than 80% (70% and
65%), her statement is not accurate. She has over estimated her scoring ability.

n(Y ) n(G ) n( P ) n( B )
P (Y )  P (G )  P( P)  P( B) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
6 2 3 1
   
12 12 12 12
1 1 1
  
2 6 4
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on yellow is .
2
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on green is .
6
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on purple is .
4
1
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on blue is .
12
b) Answers may vary. Based on the statistical probabilities, the spinner could be one-half
yellow, one-sixth green, one-quarter purple, and one-twelfth blue.
c) This spinner design may or may not look like the real spinner because it is based on
experimental probability.
Answers may vary.

a) The table shows the results for a mystery spinner.
Colour Favourable Outcomes, n(A)
Green 8
Orange 4
b)


n(V ) n(C ) n( R ) n( P )
P (V )  P (C )  P( R)  P( P) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
9 21 43 78
   
151 151 151 151
 0.0596...  0.1390...  0.2847...  0.5165...
The experimental probability of a customer ordering vanilla is about 6%.
The experimental probability of a customer ordering chocolate is about 14%.
The experimental probability of a customer ordering raspberry ripple is about 28%.
The experimental probability of a customer ordering pralines and cream is about 52%.
b) These results show that the stand sells about the same number of pralines and cream cones as
all the other flavours together. The owner can use this information to ensure that there is enough
pralines and cream on hand to be prepared for customers.
With a PoP of 70% in last April, there were possibly 21 rainy days.
a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 86 + 8 + 0, or 94.

n( F ) n(C ) n( K )
P( F )  P (C )  P( K ) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
86 8 0
  
91 94 94
 0.9148...  0.0851... 0
The experimental probability of the pitcher throwing a fast ball is about 91%.
The experimental probability of the pitcher throwing a curve ball is about 9%.
The experimental probability of the pitcher throwing a knuckle ball is 0%.
b) Answers may vary. With this information, the batter would know that the pitch will most
likely be a fast ball.
a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 3 + 12 + 25, or 40.

n( S ) n( M ) n(O)
P( S )  P( M )  P (O) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
3 12 25
  
40 40 40
 0.075  0.3  0.625
The experimental probability of the ball will land straight down the line is 7.5%.
The experimental probability of the ball will land in the middle is 30%.
The experimental probability of the ball will land in the outside is 62.5%.

b) Answers may vary. With this information, Sandeep’s opponent would know that the serve
will most likely in the outside region.
Answers may vary.

a) I study a lot and do all the homework assignments. A reasonable subjective probability that I
will earn an A in this course is 0.9.
b) I study a lot, do all the homework assignments, and have passed all the exams. A reasonable
subjective probability that I will pass this course is 0.9.
c) Since we are currently in the middle of record snowfall period, a reasonable subjective
probability that it will snow tomorrow is 0.7.
d) My favourite song is currently number one on the charts, and I listen to the radio every day
for several hours. A reasonable subjective probability that I will hear my favourite song within
the next week is 0.99.
Answers may vary. A reasonable subjective probability that Brazil will win the 2014 FIFA World
Cup is 0.9. They have the most times, since the competition has been held, and this year they are
the host country.
1 3
Since the male puppies represent of the litter, the female puppies represent of the litter.
4 4
6 3

n 4
4
n  6 
3
n8
There are 8 – 6, or 2 male puppies in the litter.
a)
b) The total number of trials is n(T) = 22 + 75 + 64 + 39, or 200.

n( R ) n(G ) n(O) n( B )
P( R)  P (G )  P (O)  P( B) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
22 75 64 39
   
200 200 200 200
 0.11  0.375  0.32  0.195
The experimental probability of drawing a red counter is 11%.
The experimental probability of drawing a green counter is 37.5%.
The experimental probability of drawing an orange counter is 32%.
The experimental probability of drawing a blue counter is 19.5%.
c) The number of counters must be a whole number. Currently two of the probabilities are not
whole number percents. There cannot be 100 counters, because you cannot have 37.5 or 19.5
counters. However, multiplying by two eliminates this problem. Then, there are 22 red, 75 green,
64 orange, and 39 blue counters, for a total of 200 counters.
d) Yes. The answer to part b) could be incorrect. Since these are experimental probabilities there
could be any number of counters of each colour.
Since the sum of the probabilities is 1, the experimental probability of spinning a purple is
1 – 0.2 – 0.3 – 0.4, or 0.1. So, if the spinner is spun 30 times, it would land on purple, 0.1(30), or
3 times.
Answers may vary.

a)
b) and c)
n( A)
Random Number Tally Experimental Probability,
n(T )
4
1 4  0.2
20
0
2 0 0
20
2
3 2  0.1
20
2
4 2  0.1
20

3
5 3  0.15
20
2
6 2  0.1
20
4
7 4  0.2
20
3
8 3  0.15
20
The experimental probability of rolling a 1 is 20%.
The experimental probability of rolling an 8 is 15%.
d) The values are not equal. I think they should be equal with repeated experiments. Each
number should have the same likelihood of being generated.
Answers may vary.
n( A)
Random Number Tally Experimental Probability,
n(T )
3
1 3  0.3
10
1
2 1  0.1
10
2
3 2  0.2
10
4
4 4  0.4
10
Answers may vary.

Answers may vary.

Assume that the customers are equally divided between the open cash registers.
3(99)
During the morning, the 5 open cash registers can process the 99 customers per hour in , or
5
59.4 min.
During the afternoon, the 8 open cash registers can process the 204 customers per hour in
3(204)
, or 76.5 min.
8
3(58)
During the evening, the 4 open cash registers can process the 58 customers per hour in , or
4
43.5 min.
3(16)
During the overnight, the 1 open cash register can process the 16 customers per hour in , or
1
48 min.
For the data provided, staffing is appropriate for the morning, understaffed for the afternoon, and
overstaffed for the evening. The afternoon should increase to 11 open cash registers, and the
evening should be reduced to 3 open cash registers. Given data for another day, the current levels
may be appropriate.
Chapter 1 Section 2 Theoretical Probability
The tree diagram shows three out of nine possible outcomes result in the hat and gloves being the
same colour, P(M).
n( M )
P(M ) 
n( S )
3

9
1

3
1
There is a , or approximately 33%, theoretical probability that the hat and gloves are the same
3
colour.

Let A represent the event of not choosing a blueberry muffin. There are a total of 15 muffins,
n(S) = 15.
n(A) = 3 + 4 + 3
= 10
n( A)
P ( A) 
n( S )
10

15
2

3
The theoretical probability of not randomly choosing a blueberry muffin is about 67%, or 0.67.
a) The subjective probability of the Toronto Raptors making the playoffs, P(A), is given as 60%,
or 0.6. Then, the probability that the Toronto Raptors do not make the playoffs, P(A′), is 1 – 0.6,
or 0.4.
Use the definition of odds to calculate the odds of the Raptors making the playoffs.
P ( A) 0.6

P ( A) 0.4
6

4
3

2
The odds in favour of the Raptors making the playoffs are 3:2.
b) Let A represent the golfer winning the tournament. Then, P(A) is given as 20%, or 0.2. So, the
probability that the golfer does not win the tournament, P(A′), is 1 – 0.2, or 0.8.
Use the definition of odds against.
P( A) : P( A)  0.8 : 0.2
 4 :1
The odds against the golfer winning the tournament are 4:1.
a) The set of all possible outcomes is the sample space. An event is a set of outcomes in the
sample space that have a common characteristic. Then, the probability of an event A happening is
the number of outcomes in that subset divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample
space. Diagrams may vary.
b) Answers may vary. Example: There are 6 marbles in a bag: 3 red, 2 blue, and 1 yellow. What
is the theoretical probability of randomly picking a red marble? The sample space, S, is R, R, R,
B, B, Y. The event, A, of picking red, consists of R, R, R. Then,

n( A)
P ( A) 
n( S )
3

6
1

2
The theoretical probability of picking a red marble is 0.5.
a) The complement of an event is the set of possible outcomes not included in an event.
b) Answers may vary. Example: There are 6 marbles in a bag: 3 red, 2 blue, and 1 yellow. What
is the theoretical probability of randomly picking a red marble? The event, A, is picking red. The
complement, A′, is not picking red. From part a), the theoretical probability of picking a red
marble is 0.5. So, the theoretical probability of the complement, not picking a red marble is 1 –
0.5, or .5.
a) Odds in favour of an event is a ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the
probability that it will not happen.
b) Odds against an event is a ratio of the probability that an event will not happen to the
probability that it will happen.
c) The concepts are similar in that they are a ratio of the same probabilities. The difference is
the order in which they are presented.
There are 40 non-face cards in a deck of 52 cards. The theoretical probability that Yuri will win
40
his first draw is , or about 77%. Answer D.
52
P(A) is 33%, or 0.33. Then, P(A′) is 1 – 0.33, or 0.67. The odds in favour of it raining tomorrow
are 0.33:0.67, or about 1:2. Answer A.
1
P(A) is , or 0.2. Then, P(A′) is 1 – 0.2, or 0.8. The odds against Susie having to go get the
5
snacks are 0.8:0.2, or 4:1. Answer C.

a) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 3 ways to obtain a sum of 4, n(A) = 3. The
total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the theoretical probability
3 1
that the sum is 4 is , or .
36 12
b) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 6 ways to obtain a sum of 7, n(A) = 7. The
6 1
36 6
c) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 18 ways to obtain an even sum, n(A) = 18.
The total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the theoretical
18 1
probability that the sum is even is , or .
36 2
d) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 31 ways to not roll a sum of 6, n(A) = 31.
The total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the theoretical
31
probability that the sum is not 6 is .
36
e) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, a perfect square (4 or 9) can happen in 7 ways. So,
not a perfect square can happen in 29 ways, n(A) = 29. The total number of outcomes for the sum
of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the theoretical probability that the sum is not a perfect square is
29
.
36
a) The sample space is all thirty possible outcomes: S = {B1B2, B1B3, B1W, B1G1, B1G2, B2B1,
B2B3, B2W, B2G1, B2G2, B3B1, B3B2, B3W, B3G1, B3G2, WB1, WB2, WB3, WG1, WG2, G1B1,
G1B2, G1B3, G1W, G1G2, G2B1, G2B2, G2B3, G2W, G2G1}.
b) The event of choosing two socks the same colour: A = {B1B2, B1B3, B2B1, B2B3, B3B1, B3B2,
G1G2, G2G1}.
8 4
c) The theoretical probability that two socks will be the same colour is , or .
30 15
4 4 11
d) P(A) is . Then, P(A′) is 1 – , or . The odds in favour of two socks being the same
15 15 15
4 11
colour are : , or 4:11.
15 15

a) From the diagram, there are 24 shapes that are not red, n(A) = 24. The total number of shapes
24
is 32, n(S) = 32. So, the theoretical probability that the monkey will be rewarded is , or 0.75.
32
b) From the diagram, there are 21 shapes that are not stars, n(A) = 21. The total number of
shapes is 32, n(S) = 32. So, the theoretical probability that the monkey does not choose a star is
21
, or about 0.66.
32
a) From the table, n(A) = 2. The total number of trials is 60, n(S) = 60. So, the experimental
2
probability that the monkey will choose a red shape is , or about 0.033.
60
b) Since P(A) = 0.033, P(A′) is 1 – 0.033, or 0.967. The experimental probability that the
monkey will not choose a red shape is 0.967.
c) Answers may vary. The high experimental probability of the monkey not choosing red may
suggest to the science researchers that the monkey has associated red with no reward.
a) Emily is applying subjective probability.

b) Since the odds against an event is represented by P(A′):P(A), the probability that Paulo will
1 1
ask Emily to the prom is , or .
4 1 5
a) Since P(A) = 80%, or 0.8, P(A′) is 1 – 0.8, or 0.2. The odds in favour of Chelsea getting part
in a play are 0.8:0.2, or 4:1.
b) Since P(A) = 25%, or 0.25, P(A′) is 1 – 0.25, or 0.75. The odds against of Chelsea landing a
lead role are 0.75:0.25, or 3:1.
a) Let C represent correct and W represent wrong.

b) i) From the tree diagram, n(A) = 1 and n(S) = 16. So, the experimental probability that Kwon
1
gets all four correct is , or 0.0625, or 6.25%.
16
ii) From the tree diagram, n(A) = 4 and n(S) = 16. So, the experimental probability that Kwon gets
4
exactly three correct is , or 0.25, or 25%.
16
iii) Assume that fewer than two correct means 1 or 0 correct. From the tree diagram, n(A) = 5 and
5
n(S) = 16. So, the experimental probability that Kwon gets fewer than two correct is , or
16
0.3125, or 31.25%.
iv) From the tree diagram, n(A) = 15 and n(S) = 16. So, the experimental probability that Kwon
15
gets not all incorrect is , or 0.9375, or 93.75%.
16
Answers may vary. From the Internet, I found that the odds are 1 in 11 million that you will die in
a plane crash. The article discusses how this number can be calculated and how it can be
misleading.

a) To obtain a rough estimate, divide the square region in a 3 by 3 grid, or 9 smaller squares of
equal size. Then, the lily pad covers 1 of the 9 squares. So, an estimate of the theoretical
1
probability that Puddles will land on the lily pad is .
9
8
b) Since the theoretical probability of Puddles going dunk-dunk is , she is 8 times more likely
9
to go dunk-dunk.
If there are k possible outcomes to a certain probability experiment, all equally likely, then the
1
theoretical probability of any one outcome is . Then, the sum of theoretical probabilities of the
k
1 1 1 1
outcomes is Sum     
k k k k
k times
1
 k 
k
1
If the panel of hockey analysts gives 8 to 1 odds against the Montréal Canadiens winning the
1
Stanley Cup, then P(Canadiens winning) = , or about 0.111.
1 8
If the panel of hockey analysts gives 17 to 2 odds against the Vancouver Canucks winning the
2
Stanley Cup, then P(Canucks winning) = , or about 0.105.
2  17
Based on this information, the Canadiens are more likely to win the Stanley Cup.
a) The reporter has expressed the odds against incorrectly as n(S):n(A) instead of P(A′): P(A).
b) The correct reworded statement is“The chances of the Ottawa Senators winning against the
Vancouver Canucks are 2:1 because they have won only one of their three meetings so far this
year.”

a) There are two possible outcomes for tossing a coin, heads or tails, each with a theoretical
1
probability of . So, an algebraic formula for the theoretical probability that all tosses will result
2
n
1
in heads is P(n heads) =   .
2
10
1
b) The theoretical probability of tossing 10 heads in a row is   , or about 9.765 × 10–4.
2
a) The odds in favour of A are equal to the reciprocal of the odds against A.
b) Answers may vary. From Example 3, the odds in favour of the Canadian women’s hockey
3
team winning the gold medal at the next Winter Olympics are . Then, the odds against the
1
1
Canadian women’s hockey team winning the gold medal at the next Winter Olympics are .
3
P( A)
c) odds in favour of A 
P( A)
1

P( A)
P( A)
1

odds against A
Chapter 1 Section 3 Compare Experimental and Theoretical Probabilities
Theoretical probability cannot predict the actual outcome of a probability experimental, but it can
give you an idea of what is likely to happen. Experimental probability is not a perfect predictor of
the outcome of a probability experiment because results of experiments can change.
If the number of times an outcome occurs is observed over a very large number or trials, the more
certain you can be of the likelihood of its occurrence.

If a die is rolled once and turns up a 4, then the experimental probability of rolling a 3 is 0 and the
1
theoretical probability is . Answer A.
6
Experimental probability approaches theoretical probability when a very large number of trials
are carried out. Answer B.
Answers may vary.

a) I chose a 4-section spinner and set the probabilities to 0.35, 0.25, 0.25, and 0.15.
It took 3000 trials for the graph to depict this.
Answers may vary.

a) I chose 4 colours for the bag of marbles and set the number as 16, 8, 8, and 8. It took 2000
trials for the graph to depict this.

a) Create a table showing all possible sums of the two 8-sided dice.
Determine the frequency of each sum.
First Die
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Second Die
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Sum, x Frequency Theoretical Probability

1
2 1 64
1
3 2 32
4 3
3
64
1
5 4 16
5
6 5 64
3
7 6 32
7
8 7 64
1
9 8 8
7
10 7 64
3
11 6 32
5
12 5 64
1
13 4 16
3
14 3 64
1
15 2 32
1
16 1 64

b) Use a graphing calculator.
c) In a few trials, the statistical and theoretical probabilities vary greatly. After a very large
number of trials, the statistical probabilities are much closer to the theoretical probabilities.
d) Answers may vary.
a) The sample space for tossing two fair coins is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
1
b) The theoretical probability of no heads is . The theoretical probability of exactly one head
4
1 1
is . The theoretical probability of two heads is .
2 4
c)
d)
e) Answers may vary. The graphs look the same. I ran 1500 trials to obtain the graphing
calculator screen in part d).

Answers may vary.

a) Two 4-sided dice are rolled and the sum is recoded.
Determine the frequency of each sum.
First Die
1 2 3 4
Second Die
1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8
Sum, x Frequency Theoretical Probability

1
2 1 16
1
3 2 8
4 3
3
16
1
5 4 4
3
6 3 16
1
7 2 8
1
8 1 16
c) As the number of trials increases, the statistical probability values approach the theoretical
probability values.
a) No. There are 36 possible outcomes for the sum of two dice. With 20 trials, there is no way
for the statistical probabilities to equal the corresponding theoretical probabilities.
b) In theory, the minimum number of trials necessary would be 36. However, is almost
impossible for the statistical and theoretical probabilities to agree in this case.
Answers may vary.

a) I chose 5. Draw Cards. You can choose from 1 to 3 decks, with or without replacement, and
a 52-card deck or a 32-card deck. Each card is shown in a table along with number and suit.

b) What is the theoretical probability of drawing a heart from a deck of cards, with replacement?
Conduct a large number of trials. How does the experimental probability of drawing a heart from
a deck of cards, with replacement, compare?
1
The theoretical probability of drawing a heart from a deck of cards, with replacement, is .
4
For the experimental probability, run repeated trials, save the data, check for the number of hearts
(= 1) in the list and divide by the number of trials.
Answers may vary.

a) I found an Experimental Probability app online from Shodor Interactive. This interactive
activity allows the user to select from six spinner options or 6-sided dice sums.
b) I liked that you could select the values for the faces of the dice.
c) I wish you could create your own spinner or choose the number of sides of the dice. Also, the
maximum number of trials it will run at one time is 10. It would be better if you could set a much
greater number of trials.
Chapter 1 Section 4 Mutually Exclusive and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
There are a total of 15 bottles, of those 5 are apple and 4 are grape.
9
P( A or G ) 
15
3

5
 60%
The probability of reaching in and randomly choosing an apple or grape juice is 60%.
There are two favourable outcomes: Brosnan (B) or Moore (M). Determine their probabilities and
apply the rule of sum for mutually exclusive events. There are 22 movies in total.
n( B ) n( M )
P( B)  P( M )  P( B or M )  P( B)  P( M )
n( S ) n( S )
4 7
4 7  
  22 22
22 22
11

22
 0.5
The probability that Rolly will randomly pick either a Brosnan or a Moore movie is 50%.

Apply the principle of inclusion and exclusion to count the number of family members who like
to ski n(s) or hike n(h). Then divide by the total number of family members, n(S).
n( s or h)  n( s)  n(k )  n( s and h)
 10  12  6
 16
Determine the probability.
n( s or h)
P( s or h) 
n( S )
16

24
2

3
If Miranda randomly draws a name, the probability that she will pick someone who likes to ski or
cycle is about 67%.
Calculate the probability that Jozo randomly picks a flying creature or one that can cast spells by
applying the principal of inclusion and exclusion.
There are 3 flying creatures: dragon, hawk, and witch. There are 2 creatures that can cast spells:
witch and wizard. There is 1 creature that can fly and cast spells: witch. There are 8 tokens in
total.
n( F ) n(C ) n( F and C )
P( F )  P(C )  P( F and C ) 
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
3 2 1
  
8 8 8
Finally,
P( F or C )  P( F )  P(C )  P ( F and C )
3 2 1
  
8 8 8
4

8
1

2
1
The probability that Jozo will randomly pick a flying creature or one that can cast spells is , or
2
50%.

a) The principle of inclusion and exclusion states that if A and B are non-mutually exclusive
events, then the total number of favourable outcomes is: n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A and B).
b) It is important when events are non-mutually exclusive. It ensures that items are not counted
twice.
Answers may vary. Example: Rolling doubles or a sum 6.
1 1 1
These are mutually exclusive events. The probability of rolling a 3 or a 4 is  , or . Answer
6 6 3
C.
These are mutually exclusive events. The probability of randomly drawing an ace or a king from
4 4 1
a euchre deck of cards is  , or . Answer D.
24 24 3
a) Kara has a total of 5 shirts with 2 pink and 1 purple.

2 1 3
The probability that she randomly draws a pink shirt or purple shirt is  , or .
5 5 5
Kara has a total of 5 shirts with 2 pink (1 short-sleeved and 1 long-sleeved) and 3 short-sleeved
shirts.
2 3 1 4
The probability that she randomly draws a pink shirt or a short-sleeved shirt is   , or .
5 5 5 5
b) The first scenario represents mutually exclusive events. The shirt cannot be pink and purple.
The second scenario represents non-mutually exclusive events. One shirt is pink and short-
sleeved.

These are mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 14 take-out meals, with 2 Mexican and 3
Chicken. The experimental probability that Rutger will get one of his favourites next Friday is
2 3
 , or about 36%.
14 14
These are mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 36 sums possible, with 6 that are sum of
seven and 2 that are sum of eleven. The theoretical probability of rolling a sum that is not a 7 or
28
11 is , or about 78%.
36
a) These are non-mutually exclusive events. The probability of randomly drawing an ace or a
4 6 1
spade from a euchre deck of cards is   , or 37.5%.
24 24 24
b) These are non-mutually exclusive events. The probability of randomly drawing a red card or
12 6 6
a diamond from a euchre deck of cards is   , or 50%.
24 24 24
c) These are non-mutually exclusive events. The probability of randomly drawing a face card or
12 6 3
a club from a euchre deck of cards is   , or 62.5%.
24 24 24
a) These are non-mutually exclusive events. The probability of randomly drawing a 9 or a 10 or

4 4 6 1 1
a diamond from a euchre deck of cards is     , or 50%.
24 24 24 24 24
b) I used the principle of inclusion and exclusion to solve this problem.

In this case, 9 of diamonds and 10 of diamonds are counted twice.
So, n(9 or 10 or diamonds) = n(9) + n(10) + n(diamonds) – n(9 and diamonds)
– n(10 and diamonds).
a) A player will score 10 points if all 8 buttons are the same colour. There are 2 ways to get all
of a single colour.
8
1
P  2 
2
1
 2
256
1

128

1
The probability of that a player will score 10 points on a given throw is .
128
b) Scoring at least 4 points means either 7 or 8 buttons are the same colour. There are 2 ways to
get all of a single colour. There are 2 × 8 =16 ways to get 7 of one colour. So, there are 18 ways
to get either 7 or 8 or one colour.
8
1
P  18   
2
1
 18 
256
9

128
c) See answers to parts a) and b).
a) These are mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 8 different tiles, with 2 es and 2 ts.
2 2
The probability of Juliette getting an “e” or “t” is  , or 50%.
8 8
These are non-mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 8 different tiles, with 2 es and 3 red
3 2 1
letters. The probability of Juliette getting a red letter or an “e” is   , or 50%.
8 8 8
These are mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 8 different tiles, with 1 capital letter and
1 4
4 vowels. The probability of Juliette getting a capital letter or a vowel is  , or 62.5%.
8 8
These are non-mutually exclusive events. There are a total of 8 different tiles, with 2 ts and 2
2 2 1
yellow letters. The probability of a “t” or yellow letter is   , or 0.375. So, the probability
8 8 8
that she does not choose an yellow or a “t” is 1 – 0.375, or 62.5%.
b)

c) Answers may vary. Example: What is the probability that she chooses a blue or black letter?

Answers may vary.

a) Since there are 3 blue marbles and the probability of green or yellow is 50%, there must be at
least 3 marbles that belong to the mutually exclusive event of “green or yellow” event. This could
mean that there is 1 green and 2 yellow marbles along with the 3 blue marbles.
b) Another possible answer is that there are 2 green and 1 yellow marble along with the 3 blue
marbles.
From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 5 ways to roll a sum or 6, 5 ways to roll a sum
of 8, and 6 ways to roll doubles. The total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36,
n(S) = 36. Use the principle of inclusion and exclusion to solve this problem.
In this case, 6 as double 3s and 8 as double 4s are counted twice.
So, n(6 or 8 or doubles) = n(6) + n(8) + n(doubles) – n(6 and doubles) – n(8 and doubles).
14 14 22
So, the probability, P(A), that the sum is 6 or 8 or double is . Then, P(A′) = 1 – , or .
36 36 36
22 14
So, the odds against Marie winning are : , or 11:7.
36 36
Answers may vary. Example: What is the probability of rolling either doubles or a sum of 5 with
a standard pair of dice? From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 6 ways to roll doubles
and 4 ways to roll a sum of 5. The total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36. So, the
6 4 5
probability or rolling doubles or a sum of 5 is  , or .
36 36 18
From the principle of inclusion and exclusion, n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A and B).
n( A or B)
P( A or B) 
n( S )
n( A)  n( B)  n( A and B)

n( S )
n( A) n( B) n( A and B)
  
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
 P( A)  P ( B )  P ( A and B)
8 1
a) The probability of biology and chemistry both in the morning or the afternoon is , or .
24 3
b) Answers may vary. I solved this using a tree diagram with four time periods and looked for
outcomes that included B and C in periods one and two or B and C in periods three and four.

c) Answers may vary. I assumed that any of Renzo’s classes could be in any time period.
a) Use a Venn to help determine n(A or B or C) for three non-mutually exclusive event.
Starting with n(A) + n(B) + n(C), it is obvious that regions A and B, B and C, and A and C will be
counted twice, while region A and B and C is counted three times.
To correct for this, subtract the regions n(A and B) + n(B and C) + n(A and C):
n(A) + n(B) + n(C) – n(A and B) – n(B and C) – n(A and C)
Notice that this results in excluding the count for region A and B and C altogether.
Finally, correct for this by adding the region A and B and C.
n(A or B or C) = n(A) + n(B) + n(C) – n(A and B) – n(B and C) – n(A and C) + n(A and B and C)
Then, divide both sides by n(S).

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A and B) – P(B and C) – P(A and C) + P(A and B and C)
b) Answers may vary. What is the probability of rolling a sum of 6 or doubles or an even sum?
In this case, n(A) = 5, n(B) = 6, n(C) = 18, n(A and B) = 1, n(B and C) = 6, n(A and C) = 5,
n(A and B and C) = 1, and n(S) = 36.
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A and B) – P(B and C) – P(A and C) + P(A and B and C)

5 6 18 1 6 5 1
      
36 36 36 36 36 36 36
18

36
 0.5
The probability of rolling a sum of 6 or doubles or an even sum is 50%.
Chapter 1 Section 5 Independent and Dependent Events
The tree diagram for four children will have 16 outcomes, only one of which is all girls. The
1
probability that the Singh family has all girls is , or 6.25%.
16
The first draw can be any one of the five marbles. Then, the second draw can be any one of the
five marbles. So, the tree diagram will have 25 outcomes. Three branches will start will a green
marble and have two yellow choices, for a total of 6 outcomes. The probability of randomly
drawing a green marble followed by a yellow marble, assuming that the first marble is replaced
6
before the second marble is drawn is , or 24%.
25
Since there are only two possible outcomes of flipping a coin, the probability of flipping a heads,
1
P(H), is . There are three prime numbers on a die: 2, 3, and 5. The probability of rolling a
2
3 1
prime number, P(P), is , or .
6 2
The coin and die results are independent events.
P( H and P)  P( H )  P ( P )
1 1
 
2 2
1

4
1
The compound probability of flipping heads and rolling a prime number is , or 25%.
4

There are two peaches out of a total of five pieces oar fruit. The probability of choosing the first
2
peach is . With four pieces of fruit left and only one a peach, the probability of choosing a
5
1 2 1 1
peach is now . So, the probability that Jelena will choose two peaches is  , or , or 10%.
4 5 4 10
Multiply the experimental probability of a randomly chosen shopper accepting a sample by the
conditional probability of a customer purchasing some juice given that he or she tried a sample.
P( S and $)  P( S )  P($ | S )
 0.15  0.2
 0.03
There is a 0.03, or 3%, experimental probability that a random shopper who accepts a sample will
result in a sale.
n($)  P($)  n( S )
 0.03  500
 15
Therefore, 15 sales will be made from offers to 500 people.
a) Independent events have no influence on each other’s probability of occurring, while

dependent events do influence the probability of the other event occurring.
b) Answers may vary. Example: Drawing two cards from a deck with replacement versus
drawing two cards from a deck without replacement.
The second scenario is more likely, because the first scenario involves multiple events while the
second only involves a single event.
3
1 1
The probability of a coin flipped three times coming up heads every time is   , or .
2 8
The probability that after coming up heads four times, a coin comes up heads on the fifth toss is
1
.
2
a) Conditional probability is the probability of a second event occurring, given that a first event
occurred.
b) Answers may vary. Example: Three green marbles and two yellow marbles are placed into a
bag.

What is the probability of randomly drawing a second green marble given that a green marble
was already chosen?
What is the probability of randomly drawing a green marble followed by a green marble,
assuming that the first marble is replaced before the second marble is drawn?
Answers may vary. Using a probability tree diagram when solving problems involving dependent
events, makes it easier to see the event branch of interest and aids in the calculation of
probabilities.
2
1 1
The probability that the coin will come up heads followed by tails is   , or . Answer C.
2 4
1
For each question, the probability of a correct answer is . The probability that Hanna will get
4
2
1 1
both questions correct is   , or , or 6.25%. Answer B.
4 16
Flipping a fair coin twice has four possible outcomes, two of which include heads and tails. The
2 1
probability that is will come up once heads and once tails, in any order, is , or . Answer D.
4 2
a) There are a total of 4 tiles, with two green, one red, and one blue.
P(G and B)  P(G )  P( B )
2 1
 
4 4
2

16
1

8
The probability that a green tile is drawn, followed by a blue tile, assuming the first tile is
1
replaced before the second tile is drawn is , or 12.5%.
8
1
b) If the first tile drawn is not replaced, the probability of drawing a blue changes to . So, the
3
1
probability that a green tile is drawn, followed by a blue tile, without replacement is , or about
6
16.7%.

c) Part a) involves independent events, while part b) involves dependent events.
a) The results of the spinners are independent.

1
Since one-sixth of the first spinner area is red, P(R) = . Since one-quarter of the second spinner
6
1
area is labelled 1, P(1) = . Determine the compound probability of Player A winning a point.
4
P ( A)  P ( R and 1)
 P ( R )  P (1)
1 1
 
6 4
1

24
1
Player A has a , or about 4.2% probability of winning a point on a given trial.
24
1
Since one-third of the first spinner area is blue, P(B) = . Since one-eighth of the second spinner
3
1
area is labelled 4, P(4) = . Determine the compound probability of Player B winning a point.
8
P ( B )  P ( B and 4)
 P( B)  P(4)
1 1
 
3 8
1

24
1
Player B has a , or about 4.2% probability of winning a point on a given trial.
24
This is a fair game, since both players have the same probability of winning a point on a given
trial.
b) Answers may vary. Example: Player A wins a point if the result is Red-1. Player B wins a
point if the result is Green or Blue-4. Then, player has a 4.2% probability of winning and player
1
B has a , or 6.25% of winning.
16
Multiply the experimental probability of a customer going for test drive by the conditional
probability of a customer purchasing a car once going for a test drive.
P( D and $)  P( D)  P($ | D)
 0.2  0.05
 0.01
There is a 0.01, or 1%, experimental probability that a customer who goes for a test drive will
result in a sale.

n($)  P($)  n( S )
 0.01  400
4
Therefore, 4 sales will be made from talking to 400 customers.
1
a) At each T-junction, Briony can turn left or right. Briony has a probability of of choosing
2
correctly. There are 4 T-junctions. The probability that Briony will successfully escape the Maze
4
1 1
of Misfortune is   , or , or 6.25%.
 
2 16
b) If her first path decision is correct, then there are only three decisions to make. The
3
1 1
probability that Briony will successfully escape the Maze of Misfortune becomes   , or , or
2 8
12.5%.
If her first two path decisions are correct, then there are only two decisions to make. The
2
1 1
probability that Briony will successfully escape the Maze of Misfortune becomes   , or , or
2 4
25%.
6 7
a) These are dependent events. There are a total of 22 movies. P(C) = and P(M|C) = .
22 21
P(C and M )  P(C )  P( M | C )
6 7
 
22 21
 0.0909...
The probability of Rolly watching a Connery movie followed by a Moore movie is about 9.1%.
2 1
b) These are dependent events. There are a total of 22 movies. P(D) = and P(D|D) = .
22 21
P( D and D)  P( D)  P( D | D)
2 1
 
22 21
 0.0043...
The probability of Rolly watching two consecutive Dalton movies is about 0.43%.
c) These are dependent events. There are a total of 22 movies, with only two Craig movies.
The probability of Rolly watching three consecutive Craig movies is 0%.

a) There are three possible outcomes for her brother: rock, paper, and scissors. For Petra to win,
1
here brother must decide on scissors. The probability that she wins the car on the first trial is .
3
b) In each round, Petra or Alek play until there are no (rock-rock) ties. Eliminating the ties
leaves two possible outcomes, each equally likely: rock smashes scissors (Petra wins) or paper
1
covers rock (Alek wins); so the probability that Petra wins is .
2
c) In part a) there are three possible outcomes, whereas in part b) there are only two.
d) Assuming random decisions on the parts of the players, this is a fair game. The tree diagram
for this game shows that there are 9 possible outcomes: 3 ways for Player A to win, 3 ways for
1
Player B to win, and 3 ways to tie. The resulting theoretical probabilities are P(A wins) = ,
3
1 1
P(B wins) = , and P(tie) = .
3 3
a) Using Quiz the Crowd, the probability of a correct answer is 0.85. Using Double Up, the
probability of a correct answer is 0.5. Using Rule One Out, the probability of a correct answer is
approximately 0.33. The best estimated probability Siko has of staying alive through the three
challenging questions 0.85(0.5)(0.33), or about 0.14.
3
1
b) If Siko guesses at random on all three questions, she has a probability of   , or about
4
0.016 of guessing correctly. She is about 9 times more likely to stay in the game if she uses all
three Helping Hands.
1
a) The games are independent. Each team has a probability of of winning.
2
4
1 1
For team A sweeping the series, P(A) × P(A) × P(A) × P(A) =   , or .
2 16
4
1 1
For team B sweeping the series, P(B) × P(B) × P(B) × P(B) =   , or .
 
2 16
1 1 1
So, the probability of either team, P(A or B), winning is  , or . Then, the complement of
16 16 8
7 1 7
this event is . The odds in favour of either team sweeping the series are : , or 1:7.
8 8 8

1
b) The games are independent. Each team has a probability of of winning and a probability
2
1
of of losing. A 7-game series means that it was 4-3 for one of the teams. If team A wins, there
2
are 20 different ways:
AAABBBA ABBAABA BBBAAAA BAABBAA
AABABBA ABBBAAA BBABAAA BAAABBA
AABBABA ABABABA BBAABAA BABABAA
AABBBAA ABBABAA BBAAABA BAABABA
ABAABBA ABABBAA BABBAAA BABAABA
7
1
Each of these has a probability of   . So, the probability of team A winning in seven games is
2
7
1 20 20 20 5
20   , or . Similarly for team B. The probability of a 7-game series is  , or .
2 128 128 128 16
11
The complement of this event is .
16
11 5
The odds against the series going the distance are : , or 11:5.
16 16
Answers may vary. In part a), the superior team would have a higher probability of winning than
the other team. In part b), the probability of playing seven games would decrease.
No. In general, P(A|B) will not equal P(B|A). From the definition,
P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B | A) P( B and A)  P( B)  P( A | B)
P( A and B) P( B and A)
P( B | A)  P( A | B) 
P( A) P( B)
So, P(A|B) = P(B|A), only if P(A) = P(B).
Answers may vary.

From the dictionary, a decision tree is a tree diagram which is used for making decisions in
business or computer programming and in which the branches represent choices with associated
risks, costs, results, or probabilities. From Wikipedia, a decision tree consists of three types of
nodes: decision nodes, chance nodes, and end nodes. Decision trees are commonly used in
operations research to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal.

Chapter 1 Review
Chapter 1 Review Question 1 Page 56

n( B ) n(G ) n(Y ) n( P )
P( B)  P(G )  P(Y )  P( P) 
n(T ) n(T ) n(T ) n(T )
24 48 51 26
   
149 149 149 149
24
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on blue is , or about 16.11%.
149
48
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on green is , or about 32.21%
149
51
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on yellow is , or about 34.23%
149
26
The experimental probability of the spinner landing on purple is , or about 17.45%.
149
b) Answers may vary. Based on the statistical probabilities, the spinner could have a blue sector
of about 58°, a green sector of about 116°, a yellow sector of about 123°, and a purple sector of
about 63°.
c) This spinner design may or may not look like the real spinner because it is based on
experimental probability.
21
a) The experimental probability that the quarterback will complete a pass is , or 0.6.
35
b) The quarterback is likely to complete 280(0.6), or 168 of the 280 throws.
a) Since Canada has won at least one medal since 1900, the probability is highly likely we will
medal in the next Olympics. A reasonable subjective probability of this event occurring is 0.9.
b) About 10% of the world population is left-handed. A reasonable subjective probability of a

person selected at random will be left-handed is 0.1.
c) There are typically four grades in a high school. Therefore, a reasonable subjective
probability of a high school student will be in grade 10 is 0.25.

a) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there is 1 way to obtain a sum of 2, n(A) = 1. The
1
that the sum is 1 is .
36
b) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 6 ways to obtain a sum of 9, n(A) = 4. The
4 1
36 9
c) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, there are 30 ways to obtain a sum that is not 7,
n(A) = 30. The total number of outcomes for the sum of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the
30 5
theoretical probability that the sum is not 7 is , or .
36 6
d) From the table in the Prerequisite Skills, a perfect square (4 or 9) can happen in 7 ways. So,
not a perfect square can happen in 29 ways, n(A) = 29. The total number of outcomes for the sum
of two dice is 36, n(S) = 36. So, the theoretical probability that the sum is not a perfect square is
29
.
36
13
a) There are 13 clubs in a deck of 52 cards. The theoretical probability of drawing a club is ,
52
or 25%.
4
b) There are 4 aces in a deck of 52 cards. The theoretical probability of drawing an ace is , or
52
about 7.7%.
c) There are 12 face cards in a deck of 52 cards. The theoretical probability of drawing a face
12
card is , or about 23.1%.
52
Given that P(A) = 0.25, then P(A′) = 1 – 0.25, or 0.75. The odds against that tennis player
winning the tournament are 0.75:0.25, or 3:1.
a) Given n(T) = 24 and n(3) = 6, the experimental probability of rolling a 3 on a given trial is
6
, or 25%.
24

1
b) The theoretical probability of rolling a three is , or about 16.7%.
6
c) Experimental probability is not a perfect predictor of the outcome of a probability experiment

because results of experiments can change. Experimental probability approaches theoretical
probability as a very large number of trials are conducted.
a)
b) The predicted relative frequency of each of the events when a very large number of trials are
carried out is the theoretical probability of each.
c) The graph has the shape that it does because the probability of 1 head is twice that of 0 or 2
heads.
a) These are mutually exclusive events. The probability that the number will be a 5 or an 8 is
1 1
 , or 25%.
8 8
b) These are mutually exclusive events. The probability that the number will be a prime or a
4 1
perfect square is  , or 62.5%.
8 8
c) These are mutually exclusive events. The probability that the number will be even or a 7 is
4 1
 , or 62.5%.
8 8
d) These are non-mutually exclusive events. The probability that the number will not be a
5 4 4
composite or an odd number is   , or 62.5%.
8 8 8

a) There are a total of 8 cars with three coupes and two mini-vans. These are mutually exclusive
3 2
events. The probability that a customer will be assigned a coupe or a min-van is  , or 62.5%.
8 8
b) There are a total of 8 cars with two blue vehicles and two mini-vans, one of which is blue.
These are non-mutually exclusive events. Apply the principal of inclusion and exclusion. The
3 2 1
probability that a customer will be assigned a blue vehicle or a min-van is   , or 50%.
8 8 8
c) There are a total of 8 cars with two grey vehicles and three sedans, one of which is grey.
These are non-mutually exclusive events. Apply the principal of inclusion and exclusion. The
2 3 1
probability that a customer will be assigned a grey vehicle or a sedan is   , or 50%.
8 8 8
d) There are a total of 8 cars with seven vehicles that are not red, two of which are coupes, and
three coupes, two of which are not blue. These are non-mutually exclusive events. Apply the
principal of inclusion and exclusion. The probability that a customer will be assigned not a red
7 3 2
vehicle or a coupe is   , or 100%.
8 8 8
a) The first scenario of an even value and a heart will be drawn is more likely to occur.
b) These are independent events.

3 1 13 1
The probability of an even number is , or . The probability of a heart drawn is , or . So,
6 2 52 4
1 1 1
the probability of an even number and a heart drawn is  , or .
2 4 8
2 1 12
The probability of a composite number is , or . The probability of a face card drawn is ,
6 3 52
3 1 3 1
or . So, the probability of a composite number and a face card drawn is  , or .
13 3 13 13
a) There are a total of 6 tiles, with 3 red, 1 yellow, and 2 green.

P( R and R )  P ( R )  P ( R )
3 3
 
6 6
9

36
1

4

The probability that a red tile is drawn, followed by a red tile, assuming the first tile is replaced is
1
, or 25%.
4
b) If the first tile drawn is not replaced, the probability of drawing a red tile the second time
2
changes to . So, the probability that a red tile is drawn, followed by a red tile, without
5
1
replacement is , or 20%.
5
c) Part a) involves independent events, while part b) involves dependent events.
Multiply the experimental probability of Josiah hitting the snooze button, P(S), by the conditional
probability that he misses his bus after he hits the snooze button.
P( S and B)  P( S )  P( B | S )
 0.2  0.25
 0.05
There is a 0.05, or 5%, experimental probability that Josiah misses his bus after hitting the snooze
button.
n( B )  P ( B )  n( S )
 0.05  120
6
Therefore, Josiah missed his bus 6 times.
Chapter 1 Test Yourself
Chapter 1 Test Yourself Question 1 Page 58
1 1 1
The probability of having either two boys or two girls is  , or . Answer C.
4 4 2
15
The experimental probability that Natalie will see a pop-up at this site is , or 30%. Answer C.
50
1
The theoretical probability of landing on green is , or 20%, and the experimental probability of
5
5
landing on green is , or 25%. Answer B.
20

There are a total of 16 outcomes, n(S) = 16. There are four ways to get exactly one head, n(1
4
head) = 4. So, the probability that the coin lands heads exactly once is , or 25%.
16
a) Since this is Marlis’s opinion, it is subjective probability.
b) Assume 80% confident means an 80% chance of passing. Then, P(A′) = 1 – 0.8, or 0.2. The
odds in favour of Marlis passing the driver’s exam are 0.8:0.2, or 4:1.
a) Calculate the areas needed for the event and sample space.
The area of the big prize is π(5)2, or about 78.54 cm2. The area of the entire target is 30(30), or
78.54
900 cm2. So, the probability that Tenzin wins a big prize is , or about 8.7%.
900
b) Calculate the areas needed for the event and sample space.
The area of the entire target is 30(30), or 900 cm2. Determine the area of the small prize.
Atotal  Abig prize
Asmall prize 
2
900  π(5) 2

2
 410.730...
The area of the small prize is about 410.73 cm2. So, the probability that Tenzin wins a small prize
410.73
is , or about 45.6%.
900
22 14
a) The odds against you winning this game are : , or 11:7.
36 36
b) These are mutually exclusive events. There are 6 ways to roll seven, 2 ways to roll 11, and 6
6 2 6 14
ways to roll doubles. 36 outcomes are possible. So, P(A) =   , or . Then,
36 36 36 36
14 22
P(A′) = 1 – , or .
36 36
a) There are a total of 8 ties with one solid blue and one polka dot. These are mutually exclusive
1 1
events. So, the probability of a solid blue tie or a polka dot tie is  , or 25%.
8 8

b) There are a total of 8 ties with four striped and three a solid colour. These are mutually
4 3
exclusive events. So, the probability of a striped tie or a solid tie is  , or 87.5%.
8 8
c) There are a total of 8 ties with one solid black and four striped. These are mutually exclusive
1 4
events. So, the probability of a black tie or a striped tie is  , or 62.5%.
8 8
d) There are a total of 8 ties with three a solid colour and one a solid blue. These are non-
mutually exclusive events. Apply the principal of inclusion and exclusion. So, the probability of a
3 1 1
solid coloured tie or a solid blue tie is   , or 37.5%.
8 8 8
a) There are a total of 4 writing tools with one red pen and one blue pen. These are dependent
1 1
events. P(R) = and P(B|R) = .
4 3
P( R and B)  P( R)  P( B | R )
1 1
 
4 3
 0.0833...
The probability that Bao draws a red pen followed by a blue pen is about 8.3%.
b) There are a total of 4 writing tools with two pens and two pencils. These are dependent
2 2
events. P(Pen) = and P(Pencil|Pen) = .
4 3
P(Pen and Pencil)  P(Pen)  P(Pencil | Pen)
2 2
 
4 3
 0.3333...
The probability that Bao draws a pen followed by a pencil is about 33.3%.
a) There are a total of 6 days to choose from with two weekend days. The probability that Abia
2
will draw a weekend day, P(Weekend), on her first draw is , or about 33.3%.
6
b) The conditional probability that Abia will draw a second weekend day, given that her first
1
draw was a weekend day, P(Weekend|Weekend) = , or 20%.
5
c) Everyone has Monday off. The weekend days are dependent events. Use the probabilities
from parts a) and b).

P(Weekend and Weekend)  P(Weekend)  P(Weekend | Weekend)
2 1
 
6 5
 0.0666...
The probability that Abia will get to enjoy a three-day weekend is about 6.7%.

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Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 1 Page 4

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 2 Page 4

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 3 Page 4

MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions 1

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 4 Page 4

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 5 Page 4

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 6 Page 4

2 MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 7 Page 5

a) Random: The coin is equally likely to land on heads or tails.

b) Non-random: The intersection is not entered unless it is safe.

c) Non-random: you select exactly what you want.

d) Random: Without looking, each candy is equally likely to be chosen.

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 8 Page 5

Answers may vary.

b) selecting your favourite pair of jeans to wear

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 9 Page 5

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 10 Page 5

a) Rolling a 2 can only happen in one way: 1 and 1.

c) Rolling a 1 is not possible.

MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions 3

Chapter 1 Prerequisite Skills Question 12 Page 5

Chapter 1 Section 1 Simple Probabilities

Chapter 1 Section 1 Example 1 Your Turn Page 9

a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 8 + 4 + 8 + 12, or 32.

4 MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions

Chapter 1 Section 1 Example 2 Your Turn Page 10

a) The total number surveyed is n(T) = 48 + 42 + 15 + 4 + 6, or 115.

Chapter 1 Section 1 Example 3 Your Turn Page 11

Answers may vary.

MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions 5

a) Experimental probability is probability based on experimental trials. It is calculated as the

Chapter 1 Section 1 R2 Page 12

a) If the probability of an outcome is 0, then the event is impossible.

b) If the probability of an outcome is 1, then the event is certain to happen.

Chapter 1 Section 1 R3 Page 12

a) #probability an estimate of how likely something will occur based on intuition

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 1 Page 13

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 2 Page 13

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 3 Page 13

6 MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 4 Page 13

a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 6 + 2 + 3 + 1, or 12.

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 5 Page 13

Answers may vary.

MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions 7

a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 9 + 21 + 43 + 78, or 151.

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 7 Page 14

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 8 Page 14

a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 86 + 8 + 0, or 94.

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 9 Page 14

a) The total number of trials is n(T) = 3 + 12 + 25, or 40.

8 MHR  Data Management 12 Solutions

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 10 Page 14

Answers may vary.

Chapter 1 Section 1 Question 11 Page 14