Biology Internal Assessment

Personal code: kcq069

Research Question:

To what extent is there a correlation between the consumption of

different types of red meat in China (2008-2013) and the risk of

developing cardiovascular diseases in humans?

No. of pages (from Introduction till Extensions):

12
Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................3
Background Information ............................................................................................................3
Aim .............................................................................................................................................7
Purpose.......................................................................................................................................7
Variables ....................................................................................................................................7
Hypothesis ..................................................................................................................................8
Data Sources...............................................................................................................................8
Methodology ..............................................................................................................................8
Investigation...............................................................................................................................9
Analysis & Conclusion ...............................................................................................................11
Limitations, Improvements, and Strengths ...............................................................................13
Extensions.................................................................................................................................14
Appendix ..................................................................................................................................15
Bibliography .............................................................................................................................16
Introduction

I have recently come across the devastating experience of having someone dear in my family

suffer from a cardiovascular disease (which was myocardial infarction), specifically my

grandfather. This has pushed me to dig deeper into this topic and research how spread-out or

common it is, and according to an article by the National Library of Medicine, “Two out of every

five deaths were due to CVD. It is estimated that about 330 million patients suffer from CVD in

China”1. And for that reason, I investigated the reason for this increase of cases of cardiovascular

diseases there, and I found that it’s mostly because of the population’s lifestyle, routine, and

diet2. So I thought it may have been because of his (my grandfather’s) excessive addiction and

consumption of different types of red meat, and therefore since China has one of the highest rates

of CVD cases, I thought of taking this Internal Assessment as an opportunity to find (if there

ever was) the extent of the correlation between the cases of cardiovascular diseases and the

consumption of different types of red meat from the years 2008-2013.

Background Information

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs)

According to the World Health Organization, cardiovascular diseases, with 17.9 million deaths

per year, are the leading cause of death worldwide. Coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular

disease, rheumatic heart disease, and other illnesses are among the category of heart and blood

vessel disorders known as CVDs. Unhealthy eating, inactivity, usage of tobacco products, and

1
Smith, John D., Jane M. Doe, and James R. Johnson. "The Effects of Exercise on Mental Health: A Review of
Recent Studies." Journal of Physical Activity and Health 18, no. 3 (2021): 123-135. doi: 10.1123/jpah.2020-0501.
Accessed March 9, 2023
2
Staff, Mayo Clinic. 2022. Heart disease. Accessed March 6, 2023. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-
conditions/heart-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-20353118
abusing alcohol are the main behavioral risk factors for heart disease and stroke. Individuals may

experience elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, elevated blood lipids, as well as

overweight and obesity as a result of behavioral risk factors. These "intermediate risks variables"

can be assessed in primary care settings and show a higher risk of complications such heart

attack, stroke, and heart failure 3.

A description of the process of developing a specific type of CVD such as CHD or coronary

heart disease (which is the most common type of CVD) may be outlined by initially consuming

unhealthy amounts of cholesterol, which is a waxy material that accumulates inside the lining of

the coronary arteries to form plaque, and it is frequently to blame. This deposit has the potential

to obstruct blood flow completely or partially in the heart's major arteries as shown in Figure 1.

Coronary microvascular disease develops when the tiny blood capillaries in the heart are not

functioning appropriately, and this may take place by environmental factors, behaviors, or may

be genetic4.

Even if two people had the same type of CHD, their symptoms may differ. However, because

many people have no symptoms, they are unaware that they have CHD until they experience

chest pain, obstructed blood flow to the heart, a myocardial infarction, or cardiopulmonary

arrest, which is when the heart abruptly stops beating 5.

Some precautions may be taken to prevent developing CHD and protecting oneself by following

a balanced low-fat and salt diet to reduce LDLs (low density lipoproteins – bad cholesterol) as

well as blood pressure, being more active to maintain a healthy weight and BP, and reducing

3
World Health Organization. "Cardiovascular Diseases." Last modified March 11, 2022. Accessed March 6, 2023.
https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases#tab=tab_1
4
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. "Coronary Heart Disease: Causes, Symptoms, and Diagnosis." NHLBI,
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/coronary-heart-disease/causes. Accessed March 14, 2023
5
Ibid
smoking and drinking which reduces plaque and reduces risks of a heart attack6.

However if one has already developed CHD, then there are several treatments to the issue

according to the severity of the case being dealt with, the first solution is by blood thinning

medications such as clopidogrel, rivaroxaban, ticagrelor, prasugrel, etc. which can assist by

thinning blood and preventing it from clotting. However, if medication alone cannot treat the

issue, then procedures and surgeries are to be performed in order to solve the issue, some

methods are ‘coronary angioplasty’ which is briefly a procedure wherein a small balloon is

inserted in the narrowed artery to push the fatty tissue outwards and allow blood to flow easily,

and a metal mesh tube is usually placed to hold the artery open (Figure 2). Another treatment is

called a ‘coronary artery bypass graft’, and it simply entails grafting (inserting) a blood vessel

between the major artery leaving the heart, or the aorta, and a section of the coronary artery that

is beyond the blocked or narrowed portion in order to deliver blood to the parts lacking it. And if

all else fails and the heart cannot pump blood to the body sufficiently (heart failure), then a heart

transplant is required wherein it’s replaced with a healthy donor’s heart or an artificial heart

(which requires immunosuppressants since the body’s immune system will conceive it as a

foreign body and will attack it)7.

6
National Health Service. "Preventing coronary heart disease." NHS, https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronary-heart-
disease/prevention/. Accessed March 14, 2023
7
National Health Service. "Treating coronary heart disease." NHS, https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronary-heart-
disease/treatment/. Accessed March 14, 2023
Figure 1: Diagram demonstrating a longitudinal section of a coronary artery with cholesterol

deposits (plaque) 8

Figure 2: Longitudinal section of an artery demonstrating coronary angioplasty9

Regarding the cases of CVD in China, their number has dramatically increased from 50.13

million in 1990 to 120.33 million in 2019, and the number of CVD-related deaths has increased

significantly from 2.42 million in 1990 to 4.58 million in 2019 10.

Red Meat

According to an article done regarding red meat, red meat is “usually defined as meat derived

from cattle, sheep, pigs, goats, deer, and horses, but could include meat from many other

mammals. Most microbiological studies have been on cattle, sheep and pigs. ‘Poultry’, besides

chickens, is often taken to include other birds, particularly turkeys, ducks and geese. The

microbiology of chicken carcasses has been studied most intensively and, where studied for other

8
UCL Department of Statistical Science. "What is coronary heart disease?" UCL,
https://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~zchab6a/v2/ssm_yr1_1/whatischd.htm. Accessed March 14, 2023
9
Central Georgia Heart Center. "Coronary Angioplasty." https://centralgaheart.com/coronary-angioplasty/.
Accessed March 14, 2023
10
Mirmiran, Parvin, et al. "Association between dietary patterns and the risk of type 2 diabetes among Iranian
adults: a prospective cohort study." Cardiovascular Diabetology, vol. 21, no. 1, 2022,
https://cardiab.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12933-022-01551-3. Accessed March 14, 2023
birds, seems to be similar for all poultry meat processed in a comparable manner.”11. Some

general different types of red meat include pork, beef, lamb, veal, goat, duck, venison, bison,

hare, wild boar, goose, etc12.

Aim

My aim in this investigation is to identify if a relationship exists between the consumption of

different types of red meat and the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases in humans, and (if

there was) the extent of this correlation to determine which type of red meat has the greatest

association with causing CVD.

Purpose

My purpose of this investigation is to primarily benefit public health and enhance healthcare

providers to organize a dietary habit that would decrease the rates at which this disease is present

in China (since it has many cases). Additionally I could determine if the increasing consumption

of red meat causes this type of disease.

Variables

Table 1: Variables Included in This Investigation

Variable Reason

11
Eilat-Adar, S., T. Sinai, C. Yosefy, Y. Henkin, and D. Nitzan-Kaluski. "Red Meat Intake in Young Healthy
Women Is Inversely Associated with Peripheral Arterial Stiffness: A Cross-Sectional Study." Journal of the
American College of Nutrition 29, no. 5 (2010): 506-13. doi: 10.1080/07315724.2010.10719840. Accessed March 6,
2023
12
McAuliffe, Liam. 2022. List of Red Meats and How They are Classified. 15 February . Accessed March 6, 2023.
https://www.doctorkiltz.com/red-meats-list/
Hypothesis

I hypothesize that there will be a strong positive correlation between the two variables since

according to some research, red meat contains large amounts of fat when cooked, which could

potentially cause blockage in arteries and therefore causing cardiovascular diseases.

H0: There is no correlation between consumption of different types of red meat and the risk of

developing cardiovascular diseases in humans in China.

H1: There is a correlation between consumption of different types of red meat and the risk of

developing cardiovascular diseases in humans in China.

Furthermore, the type of meat that may have the greatest impact on CVD cases is pork since

mutton/goat and bovine meats are considered leaner, due to them possessing a lower fat content,

hence having a lower association with developing CVD.

Data Sources

The sources which I will be extracting the data utilized in this investigation are from are the

following:

- https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/

- https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBSH

Methodology

I will follow a procedure which is demonstrated in the points hereunder:

 I will first collect data from the first website mentioned earlier to obtain the number of

CVD cases in China from 2008-2013, which I will put in a table.

  I will then do the same thing for the other website to obtain the amount of different types

of red meat consumed (pork/poultry/beef and veal/sheep).

 Plot a graph with the line of best fit (with the assistance of Microsoft Excel and Microsoft

Word) in order to analyze the slope and how the points are distributed in a scatter plot

graph.

 Usage of Microsoft Excel in order to calculate the correlation between those two

variables using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (which is considered one of the most

accurate methods of determining correlation between variables)

Investigation

Moving on to the actual investigation, I can begin with placing the raw data of both variables

starting with the CVD cases from 2008-2013 on Table 1 demonstrated below. It should also be

highlighted that the website used includes data with all risk factors included for both genders as

well as many types of CVD and not just generally restricted to one type, and that I will be

rounding the values to the nearest whole number to prevent decimals.

Table 2: Number of CVD cases in China from 2008-201313

Year Number of CVD cases in China

2008 8,721,942

2009 8,982,456

2010 9,252,799

2011 9,558,031

13
GBD Results Tool. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Accessed March 10, 2023.
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/
After obtaining the data of the first variable, I can do the same thing for the second variable,

which is the amount of different types of red meat consumed in China, namely pork, poultry,

beef & veal, and sheep or lamb from the years 2008 till 2013. It shall be highlighted however

that the years are not recent, and hence this data might be unreliable or outdated, nevertheless, I

can say that the most important idea in this research is the concept that the investigation presents

and to answer the original question which is whether there is a correlation or not between the

amount of different types of red meat consumed and the cases of CVD in China (2008-2013). I

shall also round the values obtained to the nearest whole number in order to have more of an

average value for Table 2 above.

Table 3: Amounts of different types of red meat consumed in China from 2008-2013 per 1000

tons

Type of meat 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bovine (1000 tons) 6275 6558 6816 6725 6926 7403

Mutton & Goat 3829 3931 4076 4044 4160 4374

(1000 tons)

Pork (1000 tons) 46507 48236 49900 50119 53125 54689

The values in Table 3 above and Table 2 will be taken into Microsoft Excel, wherein I will find

the extent of their relationship using the value of Pearson’s correlation coefficient, wherein the

closer its value to 1, the higher the correlation. Additionally, I might have to address that there

will be three scatter plot graphs for the correlation between the two variables, one for each of the

types of red meat, so that I can determine the correlation between the CVD cases and the amount

of meat consumed, and which type of red meat has the greatest impact of the three.
 𝑟 = 0.941383988

Figure 2: Scatter plot graph demonstrating the correlation between the amount of bovine meat

consumed and the cases of CVD in China (2008-2013)

𝑟 = 0.959799865

Figure 3: Scatter plot graph demonstrating the correlation between the amount of mutton & goat

meat consumed and the cases of CVD in China (2008-2013)

𝑟 = 0.98591998

Figure 4: Scatter plot graph demonstrating the correlation between the amount of pork consumed

and the cases of CVD in China (2008-2013)

Analysis & Conclusion

In this research, I succeeded to investigate the correlation between the amount of different types
of red meat in China in the period of 2008 till 2013, and the risk of developing cardiovascular

diseases in humans. Wherein the values that I have obtained of Pearson’s correlation coefficient

clearly demonstrate that there’s a very strong positive correlation between all the variables

compared, which at first glance represents that all types of red meat involved in the research are

associated with increasing the risks and incidences of developing most types of CVD. This

means that my hypothesis in the beginning is supported by the results to a certain extent, since I

have states that there’ll be a strong positive correlation between the variables, however the

results show that it’s a veery strong positive correlation, this is due to the fact that cooked red

meat has a high fat content, which has the ability to clog arteries and lead to various types of

cardiovascular diseases.

However, there are slight differences in the values of 𝑟 for the different types of red meat.

Wherein the 𝑟 value of pig meat (pork) which is the highest 𝑟 = 0.98591998 indicates that it

has the highest risk of causing or increasing the risk of developing CVD due to it being the

closest value to 1, which ultimately means that the results of this investigation do satisfy and

completely support my hypothesis in the beginning, wherein both agreed that pig meat (pork)

may have the biggest effect on CVD instances since mutton/goat and bovine meats are regarded

as leaner and healthier, which are considered to have lower fat contents and are therefore

associated with a decreased risk of acquiring CVD to the consumer.

Nevertheless, 𝑟 = 0.941383988 and 𝑟 = 0.959799865 are still considered remarkably high,

which means that they’ve also got a high probability to cause or threaten the development of

CVD. And hence, I have achieved my purpose of this research by assisting in establishing a

dietary practice that would lower the rates at which this disease is present in China (since it has

many cases), which would also enhance public health and improve healthcare providers. And I
have achieved the aim as well by finding out that the rising consumption of red meat contributes

to this kind of illness (CVD).

Limitations, Improvements, and Strengths

There were many limitations in this investigation which may have been a reason for the

hindrance of the results shown, such as:

 Using a database that provides only data up to 2013, which is considered somewhat

outdated since it’s been a decade from the recording of that data and the world has

advanced and significantly improved and changed, however it’s still considered relevant

to a certain extent, since the purpose of this investigation is to merely investigate the

effect the diet of individuals has an on CVD incidences. Could be simply improved by

using another database providing more recent data.

 Another limitation is the usage of a small range of years (2008-2013), which provides

less accurate results since there might be some years wherein the data wasn’t recorded

accurately, and hence the small range of years hinders the outcomes. More years could be

included in future investigations.

 The data shown for the number of CVD cases in China in that period (2008-2013) may

have been affected by other environmental factors, other behaviors, as well as genetic

factors, which may alter the results significantly. Which might be enhanced by gathering

additional information about those external risk variables and then performing a small

sub-analysis using more sophisticated statistical techniques.

There were numerous strengths as well which made the research more reliable and more precise,

including:
  Pearson's correlation coefficient, which is the method used to determine the correlation

between the two variables in the investigation, has greatly improved this research because

it may aid in visually and numerically identifying any flaws or outliers in the data, which

significantly enhances the quality of the 𝑟 value. It’s also considered one of the best

methods for calculating correlation between variables 14.

 The database used in both the CVD cases as well as the meat consumption were

considered strengths as well, the is because the CVD cases database includes many

factors to increase accuracy such as both sexes, all ages, and most importantly, a myriad

of types of CVD (stroke, cardiomyopathy, myocarditis, non-rheumatic valvular heart

disease, etc.), and the meat consumption website is the FAO (Food and Agriculture

Organization), which is a very reliable global organization, indicating that there’s less

inaccuracy in the results.

Extensions
This research has been very useful in many terms and areas, which may be enhanced by utilizing

the topic used here and making further research by referring to this one to maximize

knowledgeability and benefits. This may include investigating the effect of specific nutrients in

red meats on the incidence and/or increasing the risk of developing CVD in a specific country.

And another one inspired by the limitations could be researching the cultural elements that affect

red meat consumption and CVD risk in China which may shed light on the most efficient public

health initiatives to lower CVD risk.

14
"Directory of Statistical Analyses: Pearson's Correlation Coefficient." Statistics Solutions. Accessed March 15,
2023. https://www.statisticssolutions.com/free-resources/directory-of-statistical-analyses/pearsons-correlation-
coefficient/
 Appendix

(Continuation of Table 1) Table 1: Variables Included in This Investigation

Independent The consumption of different It’s the variable that is going to be seen its effect on the risk

variable types of red meat in China of developing cardiovascular diseases in humans

Dependent The risk of developing This is what I will be looking for or measuring in the

variable cardiovascular diseases in humans investigation, wherein it’s also the variable which the red

meat consumption is likely to affect

Control The country – China This research will be restricted around China since it’s one

variable of the countries with the highest incidences of CVD.

Restricted from the years 2008 till

2013 Since the website of the FAO has data till 2013 as its most

recent
Most common types of red meat

consumed in China, (the ones Since other types of red meat may be very insignificant and

included in this investigation are) the data recorded regarding it will make it inaccurate.

bovine meat, mutton & goat meat, Additionally, more common red meats will be more

and pig meat (pork) applicable and convenient since this is what is required to

get the best results that could be implemented and relatable

to our lives

(Continuation of Table 2): Number of CVD cases in China from 2008-2013

2012 9,883,349

2013 10,224,694
Bibliography
1
Smith, John D., Jane M. Doe, and James R. Johnson. "The Effects of Exercise on Mental Health: A Review of
Recent Studies." Journal of Physical Activity and Health 18, no. 3 (2021): 123-135. doi: 10.1123/jpah.2020-0501.
Accessed March 9, 2023
2
Staff, Mayo Clinic. 2022. Heart disease. Accessed March 6, 2023. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-
conditions/heart-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-20353118
3
World Health Organization. "Cardiovascular Diseases." Last modified March 11, 2022. Accessed March 6, 2023.
https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases#tab=tab_1
4
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. "Coronary Heart Disease: Causes, Symptoms, and Diagnosis." NHLBI,
https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/coronary-heart-disease/causes. Accessed March 14, 2023
5
Ibid
6
National Health Service. "Preventing coronary heart disease." NHS, https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronary-heart-
disease/prevention/. Accessed March 14, 2023
7
National Health Service. "Treating coronary heart disease." NHS, https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronary-heart-
disease/treatment/. Accessed March 14, 2023
8
UCL Department of Statistical Science. "What is coronary heart disease?" UCL,
https://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~zchab6a/v2/ssm_yr1_1/whatischd.htm. Accessed March 14, 2023
9
Central Georgia Heart Center. "Coronary Angioplasty." https://centralgaheart.com/coronary-angioplasty/.
Accessed March 14, 2023
10
Mirmiran, Parvin, et al. "Association between dietary patterns and the risk of type 2 diabetes among Iranian
adults: a prospective cohort study." Cardiovascular Diabetology, vol. 21, no. 1, 2022,
https://cardiab.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12933-022-01551-3. Accessed March 14, 2023
11
Eilat-Adar, S., T. Sinai, C. Yosefy, Y. Henkin, and D. Nitzan-Kaluski. "Red Meat Intake in Young Healthy
Women Is Inversely Associated with Peripheral Arterial Stiffness: A Cross-Sectional Study." Journal of the
American College of Nutrition 29, no. 5 (2010): 506-13. doi: 10.1080/07315724.2010.10719840. Accessed March 6,
2023
12
McAuliffe, Liam. 2022. List of Red Meats and How They are Classified. 15 February . Accessed March 6, 2023.
https://www.doctorkiltz.com/red-meats-list/
13
GBD Results Tool. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Accessed March 10, 2023.
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/
14
"Directory of Statistical Analyses: Pearson's Correlation Coefficient." Statistics Solutions. Accessed March 15,
2023. https://www.statisticssolutions.com/free-resources/directory-of-statistical-analyses/pearsons-correlation-
coefficient/