Stamford University Bangladesh

Md. Mahbub Alam

Lecturer, Department of Economics
Literature ReviewBangladesh,
Stamford University
51, Siddeswari Road, Dhaka -1217, Bangladesh
E-mail: mahbubalam13003@gmail.com
Contact:+8801738-704551, 01942353859

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 Population Key terms
Crude birth rate- the number of live births per 1000 population per year.

Crude death rate- the number of deaths per 1000 per year.

Exponential growth- a pattern where the growth rate constantly increases- often shown as a J-curve shape.

Life expectancy- the number of years a person is expected to live, usually taken from birth.

Natural increase- birth rate higher than death rate: birth rate minus death rate.

Natural decrease- death rate remains higher than birth rate: death rate minus birth rate

Natural change- the difference between birth and death rate, expressed as a percentage

Annual population change- the birth rate minus the death rate plus or minus migration.

Migration- the movement of people either into or out of an area.

Replacement rate- a birth rate high enough for a generation to be the same size as the one before it.
Zero growth- a population in balance. Birth rate is equal to death rate, so there is no growth or decrease.
 Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

❖ What is demography?
➢ Demography is the statistical study of human populations.
➢ It encompasses the study of the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and
spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to time, birth, migration, aging, and
death.
❖ Demographic transition model (DTM)
➢ The demographic transition model (DTM) describes how the population of a country
changes over time.
➢ It gives changes in birth and death rates, and shows that countries pass through five
stages of population change.
➢ Demographic transition refers to the transition from high birth rates and death rates to
low birth and death rates over a period of time.

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 The demographic transition model (DTM)
High High Early expanding Late Low Decline
fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 1 (high fluctuating)- high birth and death rates that fluctuate. The
population remains stable but low.
Birth rate is high because:
- There is a lack of birth control
- Women also marry young
- Children and need to work in fields to support the family’s income
No countries in Stage 1, but some tribes in Death rate is high because:
Brazil’s rainforests. UK was stage 1 before 1760.
- disease, war, famine, lack of clean water and medical care
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 2 (early expanding)- high birth rate but falling death rate. The population
increases rapidly.
Birth rate is high because: (same reasons as in stage 1)
Death rate falls due to:

Countries like Nepal and - Improved medicine

Afghanistan are in Stage 2 - Cleaner water and improved sanitation
- More and better food
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Egypt is in Stage 3 along with India, Kenya
and Brazil- most countries at lesser stages of
development.
Stage 3 (late expanding)- birth rate declines rapidly while death rate falls slowly.
Population growth slows down. Reasons for falling birth rate include:
- Fewer people are farmers who need children to work
- Birth control is now available
- Number of infant deaths are falling
- Women are staying in education longer and marrying later
Death rate still falling- for the same reasons as in stage 2
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Most developed countries e.g. most of
Europe and USA are in Stage 4
Stage 4 (low fluctuating)- low birth rate and low death rate, both fluctuate.
Population growth is small but the population remains high and stable while
fertility continues to fall.
There are significant changes in personal lifestyles. There is increased access and
demand for luxuries like holidays and material possessions so less money is
available for having children. There are more women in the workforce, with
many people having high personal incomes and more leisure interests. Also they
are not needed to work for the family. People are now having the number of
children they want.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Only recognised in recent years in some
western European countries and highly
developed rich ones e.g. Japan, Italy,
Germany.
Stage 5 (natural decrease)- a later period, during which the birth rate is very
low and goes below the death rate
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• a rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the labour market
• greater financial independence of women
• concern about the impact of increased population numbers on resources for
future generations
• a rise in the concept of childlessness, as they are expensive to raise and many
people have elderly dependents so have no kids
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 5 (decline)
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• an increase in non-traditional lifestyles, such as same sex relationships
• the death rate remains steady or slightly increases as there are more
elderly people (ageing population) so more people may die of old age
despite advances in health care.
 ❖ Major factors affecting world population growth

❖ Changes to farming method

If people rely on farming, and there is little technology, they often have large families to
provide extra workers. As technology increases, and countries develop, fewer people are
employed in farming and the need for large families declines.

❖ Urbanisation
As farming methods change, and fewer people are needed to work on the land, many rural
people move to urban areas to work. They need fewer children there, so they have smaller
families.

❖ Education and women

As society and economy develop, women tend to stay in education longer. This means they
get married and start having children later, and usually have fewer children as a result.
Educated women also know more about birth control, and so can limit their families more
effectively.
 Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
❖ Drawbacks of DTM

➢ DTM has a questionable applicability to less economically developed countries

(LEDCs), where wealth and information access are limited.

➢ DTM has been validated primarily in Europe, Japan and North America where
demographic data exists over centuries, whereas high quality demographic data for
most LEDCs did not become widely available until the mid-20th century. Eg: DTM
does not account for recent phenomena such as AIDS- a leading source of mortality.

➢ Some trends in waterborne bacterial infant mortality are also disturbing in countries
like Malawi, Sudan and Nigeria.

➢ The DTM did not include government interventions (population control e.g. one child
policy of China).
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 Malthusian Theory of Population

➢ The Malthusian Theory of Population is a theory of exponential population growth and

arithmetic food supply growth.
➢ Malthus believed that through preventative checks and positive checks, the population
would be controlled to balance the food supply with the population level.

❖ The Core Principles of Malthus

• Food is necessary for human existence.
• Human population tends to grow faster than the power in the earth to produce
subsistence.
• The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.
• Since humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily - “preventive
checks” in Malthus’ terminology.

E P I D E M I C A L E R T A N D R E S P O N S E
 Malthusian Theory of Population
❖ Malthus Theory
• In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply.
His theory has two basic principles:
• Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc.
• Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

❖ Geometric And Arithmetic Ratios

• Population, when unchecked, grows in a geometric ratio.
• Population, if unchecked, will double every 25 years [ a geometric progression is 1, 2, 4, 8,
16, 32, 64, etc.].
• Evidence from the US where land is abundant.
• Subsistence grows at an arithmetic ratio [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc.].
• Subsistence still grows, but due to the different growth ratios population must eventually
press against the means of subsistence.
E P I D E M I C A L E R T A N D R E S P O N S E
Malthus (cont.)
Population grows
geometrically….

Population exceeds
carrying capacity…

Population is kept in
“check”– preventative
and/or positive checks
 Malthusian Theory of Population
❖ Proposed Solutions of Malthus
• Malthus suggested that once this ceiling (catastrophe) had been reached, further growth in
population would be prevented by negative and positive checks.
❖ Negative Checks (Decreased Birth Rate)
• Negative Checks were used to limit the population growth. It included abstinence/
postponement of marriage which lowered the fertility rate.
• Malthus favored moral restraint (including late marriage and sexual abstinence) as a check
on population growth.
❖ Positive Checks (Increased Death Rate)
• Positive Checks were ways to reduce population size by events such as famine, disease,
war - increasing the mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.

E P I D E M I C A L E R T A N D R E S P O N S E
 Malthusian Theory of Population
Criticism
As a general rule the following points were raised as criticism against Malthusian Theory
• The ratio of arithmetical progression of means of subsistence and the geometrical
progression of population growth was never proved.
• In so many cases the theory of the growth of the means of subsistence in arithmetical ratio
was not proved.
• Malthus did not clearly distinguish between fecundity and fertility.
• Malthus did not succeed in connecting positive and preventive checks with his theory.
• Friedrich Engels also criticizes the Malthusian catastrophe because Malthus failed to see
that surplus population is connected to surplus wealth, surplus capital, and surplus landed
property.
• Population levels determine agricultural methods, rather than agricultural methods
determining population (via food supply).
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