Earth Science A

Global warming: A natural cycle or human

result?
By Manav Tanneeru

(CNN) -- Many climatologists and scientists say arctic ice melt and other changes in the Earth's
climate are the result of an increase in the world's temperature, a trend widely called global
warming.

Many global warming experts say the phenomenon, if unchecked, is capable of altering the
world's climate and geography. In the worst-case scenario, experts say oceans could rise to
overwhelming and catastrophic levels, flooding cities and altering seashores.

Other scientists and observers, a minority compared to those who believe the warming trend is
something ominous, say it is simply the latest shift in the cyclical patterns of a planet's life. A
change in the Earth's orbit or the intensity of the sun's radiation, for example, could trigger
warming or cooling.

The reason most cited -- by scientists and scientific organizations -- for the current warming
trend is an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, which are in the atmosphere
naturally and help keep the planet's temperature at a comfortable level.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 35 percent since the dawn of
the industrial age, according to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
commonly referred to as the IPCC.

The presence of other gases has increased as well. Methane is now 151 percent above pre-
industrial levels, but the rate of increase has slowed in recent decades, according to the EPA.
Meanwhile, nitrous oxide increased by about 18 percent during the past 200 years.

Many scientists and experts who have studied global warming believe these increases are
primarily the result of human activities, like the burning of fossil fuels, emissions from vehicles
and the clearing of forests.

"For the last 30 years, there's no way there's anything natural that can explain it," Stephen
Schneider, a professor of environmental studies at Stanford University in California, said.

Many scientific organizations share Schneider's view, ranging from the national academies of the
countries that comprise the G8 to the National Research Council, the American Meteorological
Society and the American Geophysical Union.
But there are those who do not share his view, and among the skeptics is Richard Lindzen, a
professor of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"We've suddenly taken to reading tea leaves," he said. "When we saw cooling from 1940 to
1970, we were proclaiming global cooling. Since then, there's been a few tenths of global
warming, so we're proclaiming global warming."

He believes the current warming trend is the result of natural variability, where a planet goes
through phases of warming and cooling and the human contribution to it is minimal.

"The Earth is always getting colder and warmer," he said. "It's always changing. In fact, this is
true of any fluid-covered planet."

Asked about glacial melt, which many observers point to as evidence of global warming,
Lindzen said the way glaciers change and move are phenomena largely unexplained.

"We don't know why, but it's perfectly clear that glaciers change even though the temperature is
cooling at the place that they've occurred," he said. "What we're doing is cherry picking any
event that occurs and then saying that's occurring due to global warming."

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/07/11/globalwarming.overview/

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地球科学 A

全球变暖：自然循环还是人为结果？

作者：Manav Tanneru

（美国有线电视新闻网）——许多气候学家和科学家表示，北极冰融化和地球气候
的其他变化是世界气温升高的结果，这一趋势被广泛称为全球变暖。

许多全球变暖专家表示，如果不加以遏制，这一现象有可能改变世界的气候和地
理。专家表示，在最坏的情况下，海洋可能会上升到压倒性的灾难性水平，淹没城
市，改变海岸。

其他科学家和观察者（与那些认为气候变暖趋势是不祥之物的人相比，是少数人）
表示，这只是地球生命周期模式的最新变化。例如，地球轨道或太阳辐射强度的变
化可能会引发变暖或降温。

科学家和科学组织最常引用的当前变暖趋势的原因是温室气体浓度的增加，温室
气体自然存在于大气中，有助于将地球温度保持在舒适的水平。

根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（通常简称 IPCC）的数据，自工业时代开
始以来，大气中的二氧化碳量增加了 35%。

其他气体的存在也增加了。根据 EPA 的数据，甲烷现在比工业化前的水平高出

151%，但近几十年来增长速度有所放缓。与此同时，一氧化二氮在过去 200 年中
增加了约 18%。

许多研究全球变暖的科学家和专家认为，这些增加主要是人类活动的结果，如燃
烧化石燃料、车辆排放和森林砍伐。
加州斯坦福大学环境研究教授斯蒂芬·施耐德说：“在过去的 30 年里，没有任何自
然因素可以解释这一现象。”。

许多科学组织都同意施耐德的观点，从八国集团成员国的国家科学院到国家研究
委员会、美国气象学会和美国地球物理联盟。

但也有人不同意他的观点，马萨诸塞理工学院大气科学教授理查德·林岑就是其
中的一位怀疑者。

“我们突然开始阅读茶叶了，”他说。“当我们从 1940 年到 1970 年看到降温时，我

们宣布全球降温。从那时起，全球变暖的十分之几，因此我们宣布全球变暖。

他认为，当前的变暖趋势是自然变化的结果，地球经历了升温和降温阶段，人类对
其的贡献微乎其微。

“地球总是越来越冷，越来越热，”他说。“它总是在变化。事实上，任何流体覆盖的
行星都是如此。”

当被问及冰川融化的问题时，林岑表示，冰川的变化和移动在很大程度上是无法
解释的现象，许多观察者认为冰川融化是全球变暖的证据。

他说：“我们不知道为什么，但很明显，冰川会发生变化，尽管冰川发生地的温度正
在下降。”。“我们所做的是挑选任何发生的事件，然后说这是由于全球变暖而发生
的。”