Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

After disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, the US emerged as a more powerful player in
global politics. Changes in international power structure started to shape international relations
accordingly. Likewise other regions, South Asia also witnessed changes due to new
developments. However, after 9/11, South Asia became focus of immense international concern.
Building harmonious terms with India became most vital strategic priority of US. Important geo-
strategic location and its potential rise as an economic giant provide India with strategic
influence in the region. Due to changing geo-political realities, India redesigned her foreign
policy and presented itself as counterbalance to rising china, pursued liberal economic policy and
accepted globalization that brought her close to sole superpower, US. In return, America
facilitated India in Asia Pacific Region.

Pakistan and India are arch-rivals in South-Asia region since 1947.Both countries have fought
three major wars and have been engaged in conflicts over various bilateral issues. This shift is
possible due to nuclear deterrence. The global community has played important role in diffusing
tension between two nuclear states especially US. The US has always played significant role in
South Asian politics. In cold war years, US sole objective in South Asia was to restrict expansion
of Soviet Union. India and Pakistan were parts of different camps during the Cold War. Pakistan
aligned with the US while India joined Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). However, after
disintegration of Soviet union and 9/11 incident, the US increased its cooperation with Pakistan
for war on terrorism and builds partnership with India to counter rising power of China.
Meanwhile, US adopted policy of restrictions and coercion against Pakistan despite its success
efforts against war on terror. On the contrary, India-USA strategic partnership, Civil Nuclear
Deal, technology transfer, US struggle to add India into Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) and its
support for grant of permanent seat for India in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have
disturbed power balance of the region.

1
There are certain factors that have contributed to growing India-USA ties. Firstly, China’s rise
has brought India and US closer. China’s rise on global politics has been seen as a threat to US
hegemony. Due to Sino-Indo border disputes, India has been seen as a strategic partner to
counter increasing influence of China in the region. In this context, US is solidifying its ties with
India-china’s arch rival-to counter rising China. Secondly, on other hand, Present Pak-US
relations are strained due to growing Indo-US relations in order to contain China and
strengthening Pak-china cooperation. Thirdly, India has huge market that could benefit US
exports. Fourthly, increased presence of Indian diaspora in strong positions in USA government
is important factor in developing India-USA relationship. Therefore, India is central part of US
“Pivot to Asia” Policy which will further strengthen Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)
comprising US, India, Japan and Australia to counter china’s power in Asia Pacific Region.

The increasing Indo-US relations have severe strategic repercussions for Pakistan because it has
enhanced power asymmetry between arch-rivals India and Pakistan and has affected Pakistan
security also. Due to this, Pakistan is compelled to join alliance, acquire arms and strengthen its
military capabilities. Thereby, India will put Pakistan into arm race and weaken its economy and
security. Granting any special status to India in UNSC will further deprive people of Kashmir
from their right of freedom. Pakistan has re-aligned its foreign policy and has become closer to
China. Another result of growing Indo-US relations has been upward trajectory in Pakistan-
Russia relationships over the last few years. Pakistan must develop well thought and well
considered policy response to these adverse developments resulting due to expanding Indo-Us
relations. Pakistan may further strengthen its strategic ties with china. In addition to that,
Pakistan may enhance military and diplomatic coordination with Russia. Building understanding
with Iran is also important in order to normalize situation in Baluchistan. However, it is strongly
recommended that Pakistan may continue its diplomatic cooperation with US because there are
several areas where US and Pakistan can mutually work together such as combating terrorism,
climate change, stability in south Asia and Afghanistan.

2
1.2 Problem Statement:

Indo-US ties have witnessed new height in recent era. Over a decade, the Indo-US relations
expanded from the field of civil nuclear cooperation to economic, strategic and cyber-security
interests. The US increased its trade with India to be India’s biggest trading partner. The
increasing Indo-US ties are causing an imbalance in the South Asian strategic balance. The US
views India as an important ally in South Asia that can be used to counterbalance the expanding
influence of China. Therefore, these increasing Indo-US ties have severe repercussions for
Pakistan. The India-USA strategic relationship would disturb strategic balance of power between
Islamabad and New Delhi and may reduce nuclear deterrence in the region. The growing Indo-
US relationship is also making India dominant actor, who wants to create hegemony in the
region at its own terms. All these developments are alarming for Pakistan and demand vibrant
and comprehensive response strategy by Pakistan to combat these challenges.

1.3 Research Questions

This Research Paper will intend to explore answers of following questions:

Question 01: What are main factors that are contributing to growing Indo-US relations in
the region?
Question 02: What are geo strategic repercussions for Pakistan caused by expanding
Indo-US ties?
Question 03: What effective counter measures Pakistan may carryout to neutralize geo
strategic repercussions resulted due to growing Indo US ties?

1.4 Aim of the study

Indo-US relations have significantly strengthened in recent era. Over a decade, the Indo-US
relations expanded from the field of civil nuclear cooperation to economic, strategic and cyber-
security interests. The increasing Indo-US ties are causing an imbalance in the South Asian
status-quo. The US views India as an important ally in South Asia that can be used to
counterbalance the expanding influence of China. Therefore, this increasing Indo US ties have

3
severe repercussions for Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to determine main reasons behind
growing Indo US ties. It will also analyze geo strategic repercussions for Pakistan caused by
expanding US ties. Another purpose of the research is to suggest effective policy options for
Pakistan to counter impacts caused by Indo-US relations.

4
Chapter 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

There is ample of literature available that sheds light on growing Indo US relations in Asia
Pacific region and its geo strategic impacts on Pakistan. The researchers have gone thorough
previous study conducted at state, regional and global levels on subject matter. Several studies
have discussed different geo strategic factors contributing to expanding Indo-US relations in the
backdrop of changing world order and turbulent dynamics in Asia Pacific region. Research
studies have also discussed severe repercussions for Pakistan due to increasing Indo-US ties.
Many research articles have also been written on the policy recommendations to suggest
government of Pakistan how to counter geo strategic repercussions caused by growing Indo-US
relations. However, rapid changes in regional and global politics require taking into account
emerging factors shaping relations in international community.

Professor Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is of opinion that after emergence of US as sole superpower in
global political arena, India realigned her foreign policy strategy and started to increase her
partnership with US. In a response, US supported India’s desire for global leadership and signed
a deal for wide-ranging strategic partnership. The Indo-US strategic partnership may upset power
symmetry between Pakistan and India, which may reduce nuclear deterrence in South Asia.
(Jaspal 2007)1. Renowned Researchers Sadaf Farooq and Sadia Kazmi have narrated that Indo-
US strategic deal has serious repercussions for Pakistan. This deal clearly manifest that US will
no more consider Pakistan and India on equal parameters and it has accepted India as a dominant
actor in the region.US is treating Pakistan as tactical partner while India is seen as strategic
partner. (Sadaf Farooq 2018)2 The Authors have further asserted that Strategic partnership in
post 9/11 phase has given Indo-US relations new height in history of the region. Both countries
have similar interests that are contributing to their increasing relationship. Few of the significant

1
Jaspal, Zafar Nawaz. The Indo-US Strategic Relationship and Pakistan's Security. london: South Asian

2
Sadaf Farooq, Sadia Kazmi and Javaria Javed. Indo-US Strategic Partnership: Implications for Pakistan.
Pluto Journals, 2018.

5
concerns that are major reason behind this expanding strategic relationship are: China as a threat,
Pakistan being considered as pinball, global security dilemma, and increasing importance of
Indo-Pacific region.3 (Sadaf Farooq 2018)
Analyst Tridivesh Singh Miani has written that geopolitical dynamics of South Asia has seen a
significant shift in last two decades. One of the prominent changes in last few years has been
deteriorating Pak-US relations and Pakistan’s growing relations with china, especially since
beginning of CPEC project. For Pakistan, establishing a balance between its partnership with
China and US has become harder due to declining US-China relationships The Pak-US relations
will be more relying on US-China relationships. Further, author has narrated that Pakistan’s
focus on regional cooperation is a good sign. However, on other side it will be difficult for India
to reverse the ultra-nationalist opinion that has developed under Modi’s Hindutva doctrine
against Pakistan. Author is of opinion that both countries will realize importance of peaceful
relationship especially after Covid-19 pandemics. (Maini 2021)4 Indo-US strategic cooperation is
a convenient alliance geared to achieving certain objectives. Dr Ashfaq Malik is of opinion that
India-USA strategic cooperation is a great alliance that is developed to achieve various strategic
goals. Neutralizing China and Pakistan is a prime goal of this partnership and India has been
given responsibility for this task. Therefore, Indo-US cooperation in all areas is focused to
achieve that strategic goal. (MAILK 2018)5
Writer Ishaque Fani has mentioned that India and Pakistan are not considered equal in US
strategic calculation. Pakistan is perceived as middle power while India is seen as country with
great economic and military power. Additionally, US use word “strategic” with India only. (Fani
2009)6 The Author has further narrated that Civil Nuclear Deal between India and US is clear

3
Sadaf Farooq, Sadia Kazmi and Javaria Javed. Indo-US Strategic Partnership: Implications for Pakistan.
Pluto Journals, 2018.

4
Maini, Tridivesh Singh. Pakistan-US Relations and the Geopolitics of South Asia. Future Directions International,
2021.
5
MAILK, ASHFAQ AHMED. INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN. ISLAMABAD: SCHOOL
OF POLITICS AND INTERNTIONAL RELATIONS ISLAMABAD, 2018.

6
Fani, Muhammad Ishaque. The Indo- US Strategic Partnership in Post 9/11: Implication for Pakistan.
Pakistan Vision Vol. 10 No. 2, 2009.

6
sign that India has been selected as leading actor in the region. Pakistan is seen as tactical partner
in war on terror. On other hand, USA has close strategic partnership with India. Author has
further narrated that Pakistan is worried because USA has rejected Pakistan’s apprehensions over
Indo-US defense deal that will provide modern missile defense mechanism to India and it will
disturb strategic balance of power in the region.7 (Fani 2009)

The Authors Muhammad Imran Rashid and Umbreen Javaid in their research report have written
that present Washington-Delhi friendship is regarded as “irreversible” and is labeled as “strategic
partnership”. Both countries have taken numerous steps to strengthen their relationship including
economic, nuclear technology, trade, and defense cooperation. The security landscape of South
Asia has been in turmoil due to traditional arch rivals India and Pakistan. The status of relations
between both countries defines the security situation of South Asia. In this situation, Indo-US
cooperation in modern defense equipment is major cause of apprehensions for Pakistan. (Javeed
2018)8 Analyst Mahrukh Khan in his research report has mentioned that Washington has
recognized New Delhi as counterbalancing for rising China. The CPEC has compelled the USA
to increase cooperation with India at all fronts. The Project will solidify China’s power in Central
Asia, Middle East, Africa and which will further increase apprehension of US and India. (Khan
2018)9 Dr Balwinder Singh, in his article has written that, former US President Obama declared
Indo-US relationship as decisive relationship of 21st century. While, it is understandable that US
is supporting India due to its differences with China. It is becoming obvious that US is assigning
major role to India in order to restrict Chinese influence. Under the Trump presidency, USA in

7
Fani, Muhammad Ishaque. The Indo- US Strategic Partnership in Post 9/11: Implication for Pakistan. Pakistan
Vision Vol. 10 No. 2, 2009.
8
Javeed, Muhammad Imran Rashid and Umbreen. "India-US-Pakistan Strategic Relations." Journal of the Punjab
University Historical Society, 2018: 10.

9
Khan, Mahrukh. Growing India-US Strategic Cooperation: An Analysis. islamabad: Institute of Strategic Studies,
Islamabad., 2018.

7
South Asia has further created anxiety by supporting India and creating antagonism towards
Pakistan. This change in US policy is due to growing Indian clout in the region. (Singh 2019)10

The studies and analytical reports mentioned above lack present dynamics aroused after the fall
of Kabul on 15th August 2021 by Afghan Taliban. The Taliban's takeover is important event that
will likely bring serious changes in geopolitical situation of the region especially for India
keeping in view its strained relations with Pakistan and China, who are expected to have central
role in stability of Afghanistan.

10
Singh, Dr. Balwinder. INDO-US NEW STRATEGIC BONHOMIE IN THE 21ST CENTURY. The Journal of Political
Science XXXVII GC University Lahore, 2019.

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Chapter 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Design:

The research is qualitative and analytical. Therefore, descriptive research methodology was
used in this research paper because topic is of great regional and global attention which
required to be explored in critical way to draw true analysis.

3.2 Data Collection

The secondary method of data collection was utilized by analyzing sources such as research
publications, research articles, policy papers, news articles.

3.3 Method of Analysis

All the existing data collected for research paper was analyzed by using method of content
analysis.

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Chapter 4

FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

As discussed earlier, this research paper will focus on three main points. The first point explains
the factors that are contributing to growing Indo-US relations. While second point is designed to
assess geo strategic repercussions for Pakistan caused by expanding Indo-US ties. Finally, third
point will look for effective policy options for Pakistan to counter impacts caused by heightened
indo-US partnership.

4.1 Factors contributing to growing Indo-US relationship

There are multiple factors that are contributing to increasing Indo-US relations.. The major
factors are explained as below:

4.1.1 Historical Analysis

The historical analysis is very important part of the content analysis technique because
the root of present relations lies in history. Since independence India’s relations with US
has been marred by Cold war mistrust and difference due to nuclear program of India.
However, relations have been improved significantly in last three decades.
a) Cold War Era: Former US president Winston Churchill believed has said that
Americans always do right thing after they have tried everything else. (Mansingh
2006)11. Former US Ambassador to India Senator Moynihan believed that it took
five decades to USA to understand potential of India. (Mansingh 2006)12. In cold
war era, containment of communism was principle foreign policy objective of the

11
Mansingh, Lalit. India-United States Strategic Partnership: Are We Yet There. Institute of Peace And Conflict,
2006.
12
Mansingh, Lalit. India-United States Strategic Partnership: Are We Yet There. Institute of Peace And Conflict,
2006.

10
 US. US signed several pacts in different regions of the world to counter expansion
of communism. India declared her to remain non-aligned and emerged as a leader
of non-aligned movement. This decision of India was highly disliked by US to
such extent that US secretary of state John foster Dulles expressed it as
“unsuitable for friendship”. (Kux 2002)13 Additionally, India dislike US role as a
mediator in Kashmir dispute. US efforts for peaceful solution of Kashmir issue
also compelled India to move away from the US.
During 1962 Indo-Sino war, short span of cooperation existed between USA and
India when PM Nehru requested USA for help in war against China. USA backed
India at all global forums. (Tellis n.d.)14 Indo-US relations further deteriorated
during Indo-Pak war of 1971, when US sided with Pakistan. Author Dennis Kux
has mentioned that India believe that during 1971 war, USA government
dispatched its aircrafts to help Pakistan. (kux 1993)15 In 1971, India signed
friendship agreement with Soviet Union for strengthening of bilateral relations.
However, invasion of Afghanistan was adverse development for India as it further
worsened indo-us relations. On other hand, Pakistan was selected as US ally in
Afghanistan war. India views this act as threat to her security. Again in 1974,
nuclear test by India worsened Indo-US relations. In a response to India Nuclear
Test in 1974, the US in 1978 introduced Nuclear Non-proliferation Act to impose
sanctions on India. DR Ashfaq Malik has written that after 1974 nuclear test,
India was targeted by US sanctions while Pakistan was granted waiver because of
Afghan war. This US approach irked India and convinced her to make more
pragmatic approach. (MAILK 2018)16 India declared NPT is US nuclear policy
doctrine that is characterized by double standards and discrimination. Author Lalit
Mansingh is of opinion that that two more periods of collaboration between India
13
Kux, Dennis. A Remarkable Turnaround: US-India Relations. Foreign Service Journal, 2002.
14
Tellis, Ashley J. The Transforming US-Indian Relationship and Its Significance for American Interests. Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, n.d.
15
kux, dennis. India and United States: Estranged Democracies 1941-1991. National defense university press, 1993.
16
MAILK, ASHFAQ AHMED. INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN. ISLAMABAD:
SCHOOL OF POLITICS AND INTERNTIONAL RELATIONS ISLAMABAD, 2018.

11
 and USA arose in 1085 when both countries signed MOU on technology transfer
and signed mutual strategic vision in 1991. (Mansingh 2006)17
a) Post-Cold War Era: End of cold war motivated both the countries to begin
harmonious bilateral relationship in changing geo strategic setting, where US emerged as
a sole superpower in global politics. India realigned its strategic and foreign policy
priorities according to uni-polar strategic world. After disintegration of Soviet Union,
India lost its strategic ally. Now India was in search of new strong ally against two hostile
neighbors Pakistan and china. US also started to perceive India as an opportunity to
increase its defense and trade relationship and prime market for its exports. It is pertinent
to mention here that India’s economic liberalization plan in1990s encouraged both
countries to enhance their economic ties. (Muni 2014)18 In 1995, US signed “Agreed
Minutes on Defense” relations with India. On other hand, Pak-US relations worsened as
Pakistan was no more needed to be utilized as proxy against Soviet Union. Pakistan
Nuclear Program was major cause of disturbance for USA. Subsequently, Pakistan faced
US economic sanctions. Writer Fazal Rabi in his research has written that post-cold war
era proved favorable for India because US enhanced its bilateral partnership with India.
The Indo-US defense agreements and purchase of heavy military equipment in 1990s
clearly depicted that US had decided to give priority to India over Pakistan in its strategic
calculation.
In 1993, the US Commerce department decided to declare India as one of leading market
that attracted the interest of corporate sector of US. However, economic potential of India
does not translated into enhanced economic cooperation between the two countries.
Differences over issue like nuclear non-proliferation and Kashmir dispute remained
major hindrance to harmonization between the two states. However, Clinton era was
characterized as warming of terms between US and India. India’s nuclear tests of 1998
were condemned by US and other countries of the world. It is interesting to note here that

17
Mansingh, Lalit. India-United States Strategic Partnership: Are We Yet There. Institute of Peace And Conflict,
2006.

18
Muni, S. D., & Chadha. US pivot and Asian security. Pentagon Press and Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses, 2014.

12
 nuclear tests of 1998 created basis for ending conflict between US and India on nuclear
issue. The visit of Clinton to India in 2000 was marked as remarkable change in USA
posture towards India. (Nautiyal 2006)19. President Clinton said during joint press
conference with Indian Prime Minister that nuclear issue will no longer be irritant in
future India-USA relations. (Qidwai 2005)20In 1992, high level meeting between India
and US was held where US conveyed its concern over rising “militant Islam” in the
region. The US considered India as stabilizing force that could protect US interest in
turbulent Muslim World.
In post-cold war phase, Pak-US relations kept on worsening but progress on Indo-US
evolving partnership was also slow. US imposed sanctions on both India and Pakistan
due to their nuclear tests. But these sanctions were gradually waived. Despite resentment
over nuclear test, the US required India to take lead in furthering US interest in South
Asia. (Nayak 2006)21
b) Post 9/11 Era: Start of Strategic Partnership: After the horrendous incident of
9/11, the US started “global war against terrorism” and selected Pakistan as key ally in
global war against terrorism. The Pak-US partnership became threat for India. To counter
this, India also offered US its support and bases for military action against terrorists.
Writer Ashley J. Tellis in his research report has mentioned that 9/11 incident resulted in
reversal of US severe policies against Pakistan and Pakistan emerged as major non-
NATO ally of US. However, Bush administration avoided another inclination towards
Pakistan that could irritate India. The US administration continued its efforts to look for
greater geopolitical interest of the region and hence quickly moved towards India. The
growing engagement between India and USA that initiated in Clinton era was eventually
translated into a strategic partnership during Bush era. The Bush administration declared
India a leading global power in 2002. In meeting of the US National Security council,
Bush said that:

19
Nautiyal, Annupuran. Challenges to India’s Foreign Policy in the New Era. Gyan Publishing House, 2006.
20
Qidwai, Minhaj. US-India Nexus: Implications to China and Pakistan. Al-Jazeerah, 2005.
21
Nayak, Polly. "US Security Policy in South Asia Since 9/11-Challenges and Implications for the Future." 2006.

13
 “The USA and India have common vision for regional peace and security and Indo-USA
strategic partnership has great potential to counter any threat” (Bush 2002)22
After 9/11 incident, US began to transform indo-US relations by initiating multiple
agreements related to defense, nuclear and military. In 2004, “Next step in Strategic
Partnership” NSSP was signed to enhance cooperation in three key areas i.e. civilian
nuclear capabilities, space program and high technology trade. In June 2005, The US and
India signed the “New Framework for the Indo-US Defense Partnership” for the
coming 10 years. In July 2005, civil nuclear deal (134 Agreement) was signed between
USA and India. As per agreement India agreed to separate its military and civil nuclear
facilities and all its civil nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. In return, US agreed
promised India for full civil nuclear cooperation with India. This agreement was ratified
in 2008 when NSG granted waiver for to India and allowed it to access civilian nuclear
trade. It is worth mentioning here that despite not being party to NPT, India has been
granted waiver by NSG. In 2006, US started “Strategic Dialogue” with India and after
several rounds of the dialogues. In 2012, India and US introduced “Defense Technology
and Trade Initiative” DTIT to promote bilateral defense trade. (Pinto 2012)23 In
January 2015, in order to further extend Indo-US defense relations, The US established
cell named as “India Rapid Reaction Cell” IRRC. In June 2015, both countries revised
their “New Framework for US-India Defense Relationship” for the next ten years. In
May 2016, the US presented the “US-India defense Technology Act” in US Congress.
The Act would amend the US Arms Export Control Action to facilitate India’s status as
major partner. (Tribune 2016)24

22

Bush, President. " The National Security Strategy of the United States of America." Washington DC:
Government Printing Publication, 2002.

23
Pinto, K. Alan Kronstadt and Sonia. India-US Security Relations: Current Engagement,” Congressional Research
Service . Congressional Research Service, 2012.

24
Tribune, Express. "US Amending Law to Grant India Status of Closest Partner: Pentagon Official." 2016.

14
 In 2016, US President Obama declared India as “major defense partner” and signed the
“Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement”LEMAO. In 2018, India and Us
signed the “Communications Compatibility and Security agreement”COMCASA.
This agreement will provide India access to US technology and advanced defense system
to keep eye on China and other neighbors. This agreement was signed during 2+2
Summit and it was also announced that US is working hard towards India’ inclusion in
NSG.
These partnership agreements on defense and military are strengthening India-US defense
cooperation to achieve long term strategic objectives. The Indo-US Nuclear Deal has
recognized India as responsible nuclear power. This deal has favored India by ending its
isolation for global nuclear trade. The US violated its non-proliferation laws by granting
waiver to India. However, India does not comply with any global non-proliferation
regime and is engaged in updating its nuclear weapon complex. “Despite India’s poor
record of non-proliferation, the US is removing all obstacles in providing India with
nuclear power reactors.” (Sidhu 2015)25
4.1.2 Counter Rising power of China
The US considers China rise has serious implications for the stability and security of the
Asia-Pacific region. In this regard, US has provided India with modern technology and
developed India’s defense preparedness in such a way to counter rising Chinese threat.
The US has selected India as a strategic partner to further US interest in the region and
US believes that India has great potential to create balance of power in Asia Pacific
region. US “Pivot to Asia” policy and India’s “Look East” policy are designed to
counter China’s rise.US has also initiated “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” Quad with
likeminded nations such as India, Japan and Australia to counterbalance China expansion
in the region. On other hand, china has always considered growing Indo-US strategic
partnership as a challenge to its rise in the region. Therefore, china has initiated “String
of Pearls” strategy and “Belt and Road initiative” BRI to counter repercussions caused
by growing indo-US partnership. Keeping in view challenging environment in the region,

25
Sidhu, Robert Einhorn and. “Operationalising US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation,” in The Second Modi-Obama
Summit: Building the India-US Partnership. Brookings India Initiative, 2015.

15
 China has strengthened its relationship with Pakistan and under BRI, China has started
“China-Pakistan Economic corridor” CPEC.
Author Varghese K George in his book has written that India and USA have convergence
of opinion when it comes to a rising China and both countries increasing trade deficit
with China. Both Modi and Trump have declared China as an expansionist power. In
2017, joint statement by Modi and Trump supported Indian objection to Chinese lead
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).US “Pivot to Asia” and India’s “ Look East” policy are
designed to counter China’s rise. The US views India as an important strategic ally in
South Asia that can be used to counter expanding influence of china in Asia-Pacific
region. (Varghese 2018)26 The author has also mentioned that China is trying to expand
its influence and authority in a way that avoids direct clash with other countries. Both US
and India, while being cautious of China rise, also wants china cooperation to fight
Islamism and terrorism. He has narrated that US economy is significantly dependent on
economic cooperation with china and every Asian country desires constructive economic
partnership with china. Therefore containment strategy by Indo-US alliance is infeasible.
(Varghese 2018)27
In 2011, President Obama introduced “Pivot to Asia” policy in order to counter China
with the help of strategic allies in Asia Pacific Region. US placed India on driving seat in
its strategy to counterbalance China due to India’s growing economic and armed clout in
South Asia. In 2016, India and US signed Logistic Support Agreement to check Chinese
power in the region. This agreement will allow both countries to utilize each other
strategic seaport. The US policy in Asia is mainly China centric. In 1991, India
introduced “Look East” policy that is aimed at developing strategic relations with
Southeast Asian countries to present itself as regional power and counterweight to China.
In 2014,Prime Minister Modi has replaced “Look East” policy with more aggressive
policy” Act East” policy. The US has serious concern over growth, development, military
expansion, monetary policies and increasing power capabilities of China. The former
Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice expressed her opinion on these grounds. She clearly

26
Varghese. Open Embrace: India-US ties in the Age of Modi and Trump” . Penguin Random house, 2018.
27
Varghese. Open Embrace: India-US ties in the Age of Modi and Trump” . Penguin Random house, 2018.

16
 said that unrestricted China is not in the interest of US and by strengthening India; the US
can counter China and restrict the growth of China in Asia pacific region.

4.1.3 Large number of Indian Diaspora at powerful position in US

According to UN report published in 2020, 2.7 million Indian diaspora are living in the
US. Writer Varghese K George has mentioned that Indian diaspora in US have become
key uniting force in developing Indo-US relationship. US firms and strategists view
Indians as allies because they are cheaper, smarter workforce and belong to democratic
country. Indian Americans constitute 1% of the members in the US congress in 2016
elections, the highest in history. He has further narrated that Indian Americans are
looking for Jewish model in this regard. With 2% of the country’s population, the Jewish
community has 10% members in US congress. (Varghese 2018)28.Indians in US have
occupied strategic positions in areas like media, judicial system and politics. There are
several prominent Indian origin politicians i.e Kamala Haris,Nikki Haley, Bobby
Jindal,etc. The Indian diaspora is very active in US politics and has played their active
role in promoting interest of India in US. Thus, Indian diaspora in the US are key
cementing force in growing indo-US relations.

4.1.4 India’s huge market and economy

There are several reasons behind increasing Indo-US relations. Major reason is India’s
growing economy and huge market. As Foreign policy of any country is designed to
secure its national interests, USA also wanted to secure its national interest by building
economic ties with emerging market of India. After pursuing the liberal economic
approach, India was able to make strong political interaction with USA because USA
wanted its products to be sold in Indian market. Author Varghese K George has
mentioned in his book that there are serious trade difference between US and India. In
2018, US president Trump demanded from India to increase its imports from US by $10
billion annually in order to wipeout India’s $23 billion annual surplus. This shows that

28
Varghese. Open Embrace: India-US ties in the Age of Modi and Trump” . Penguin Random house, 2018.

17
 how US is desperate for huge and promising Indian market. This enormous Indian market
is key reason behind strong Indo-US relations.

4.1.5 Common stance on key regional and global issues

India-US relations are also described as convergence of values and interests. Both India
and US have explored various areas of convergence of interests at strategic and political
front and they are developing strategic relationship to gain these goals:

a) The US has important strategic interest in energy reserves of Middle East and South Asia.
India being larger country of the region is located at strategic location connecting Indian
and Pacific Oceans.
b) The Indian Ocean is vital for the US to enhance its military presence in the region.
Similarly, China has also increased its activities in the Indian Ocean region. Increased
Chinese activities in Indian Ocean are considered threat by both US and India.
c) The US hegemony is challenged by Chinese military and economic power in Asia-Pacific
region. The region is blessed with high energy resources. India also considers China as a
challenge to its important strategic interests.

4.2 Geo-Strategic Repercussions for Pakistan

There are going to be three dimensions which are discussed here; the strategic, political and
economic:

4.2.1 Strategic Repercussions:

From Strategic perspective, Indo-US relationship has sufficient potential to upset power
structure between India and Pakistan. Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal will provide India an
opportunity to pursue its hegemonic designs in the region. In addition to that, deal further
strengthens Indian domination in its neighborhood. This deal has disturbed strategic
symmetry of power between two hostile countries. It is also indication of USA
discriminatory approach in its dealing with Pakistan and India.USA has done sheer

18
 violation of its own policy regarding nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament by
granting civil nuclear deal to India. This deal may further initiate arm race competition
and increase nuclear proliferation in the region. The imbalance caused by Indo-US civil
nuclear deal will force Pakistan to have similar pact and agreement from other state such
as china or Russia. Pakistan will definitely look for balance in the region. Indo-US
partnership has contributed to appalling strategic environment of south Asia. Some
repercussions are explained in this report:
“Inclusion of advanced weapons and missile system will lessen importance of nuclear
deterrence and may create environment of war in the region” (Ferguson 2006)29
With US support, India will continue to portray Pakistan as a terrorists sponsored
country. As India has exploited “world largest democracy” label and has done significant
propaganda against Pakistan that Pakistan is using militants to undermine security of
“democratic” India. In this way, India will secure another strategic objective to hijack
solution of long standing issue of Kashmir.

4.2.2 Political Repercussions

Pakistan has expressed its serious reservations over the growing India-US partnership and
has declared this growing partnership as threat to regional stability. In 2005, foreign
ministry of Pakistan conveyed its serious reservations to the USA over harsh geopolitical
repercussions of the India-US strategic partnership over the introduction of advanced
weapons that would upset the strategic balance and may set off arm race in the region.
Ministry also warned that Pakistan will respond fittingly to rectify imbalance created by
growing Indo-US cooperation. (Pakistani Foreign Office Press Release 2005)30In 2016,
Advisor to PM Nawaz Sharif on foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz also expressed his concern

29
Ferguson, Michael A. Levi and Charles D. US.-India Nuclear Cooperation A Strategy of Moving Forward. Council
on Foreign Relations Special Report, 2006.
30
Pakistani Foreign Office Press Release. dawn news, 2005.

19
 over developing Strategic relations between India and US. This statement was issued
when both countries signed multiple agreements for security partnership during Indian
PM Modi’s visit to the US in 2016. Sartaj Aziz also said that growing strategic Indo-US
cooperation has negative impacts on nuclear deterrence and stability in South Asia.
(mateen 2016)31
Author Adil Sultan while commenting on Indo-US civil nuclear deal in his research
report has mentioned that if this deal is implemented without examining India’s strategy
to enhance its fissile material may lead to arms race in the region and destabilizing the
whole region. (Sultan 2006)32. Indo-US strategic partnership will provide India with
power to increase its dominance and counter China’s growing power in Asia Pacific
region. By countering China, India will play vibrant and active role in the regional
politics and curtailing Pakistan role as only a spectator in regional politics. Another
political repercussion for growing indo-us strategic relations is that as it has direct serious
impacts on Pakistan’s security. Therefore, Pakistan will be forced to build strategic
relations on same lines with East: China and Russia. Democracy is essential for growth
and development of any country. Democracy promotes good governance, protection of
human rights, and freedom of speech and movement. Pakistan is land of people
belonging to different cultures, ethnicities and languages. This diversification can only be
recognized and respected in democratic setup. Another severe political repercussion of
growing Indo-US relations is that it will strengthen and increase role of military in
politics of Pakistan as military will present itself as the defender of the national
sovereignty and integrity in a more aggressive way. This will hamper Pakistan economic
growth and development.
Nonetheless, the Indo-US strategic relationship can also be blessing in disguise for
Pakistan. If US is supporting India to be used as a proxy for containment of China and
assisting it to rise as a dominant regional power, this will switch the attention of India
from Pakistan to china. Therefore, Pakistan will gain an opportunity to re-align its

31
mateen. dawn news. 2016. https://www.dawn.com/news/1263766 (accessed 2021).
32
Sultan, Adil. India – US Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: Implications on South Asian Security
Environment. Henry L. Stimson Centre, 2006.

20
 defense related budget towards socio-economic development. (Huma 2011)33 Foreign
policy of Pakistan has remained Indian centric and it has diverted Pakistan from the path
of development and progress. This will convert Pakistan foreign policy from security
driven to economy driven. Thus, this growing Indo-US alliance may help Pakistan to
restrict its focus towards India and divert its resources for development.

4.2.3 Economic repercussions

Pakistan will bear serious economic repercussions due to developing indo-US

partnership. Pursuing arms competition with India will further worsen the economic crisis
of the country when the country is already suffering from poor socio-economic
development and severe inflation. There is need to utilize major chunk of budget on
social development and welfare of the citizens. But the spending of resources for military
and defense purpose will further exacerbate the already weak economy. On other hand,
India-US cooperation will elevate economy of India because it will open avenues of US
market for India. Both the countries will benefit from the coordination due to exchange of
human resource and industries. This will strengthen Indian economy in various ways.
Anyways, US would be in more favorable position than India because cooperation
between two countries will provide US markets with an opportunity to sell their products
to a new gigantic Indian market. Owing to this partnership, US defense contractors will
get entrance to the global market via India, while India will act as alternate market for
countries looking for US technologies at cheaper rates. So, India will be able to get
modern US technologies and Pakistan will be deprived from such facility. There is no
denying the fact that economy of India will boost significantly due to growing India-US
strategic partnership. (Fani 2009)34

33
Huma, Yousaf. Focused on India: Pakistan’s Foreign Policy. dawn news, 2011.

34
Fani, Muhammad Ishaque. The Indo- US Strategic Partnership in Post 9/11: Implication for Pakistan. Pakistan
Vision Vol. 10 No. 2, 2009.

21
4.3 Response strategy for Pakistan?

As discussed earlier, enhanced Indo-US strategic partnership has grave repercussions for
Pakistan at all fronts whether it is strategic, political or economic. To counter the threats arising
from such strategic relationship, Pakistan must formulate well thought and strong response
strategy. Key policy options are suggested as below:

4.3.1 Look East Policy by Pakistan

Indo-US strategic relationship is alarming for Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan must
reconsider its ties with USA and find alternate alliance. Keeping in view growing
mistrust between US and Pakistan, Pakistan may look for Eastward policy. The present
Pak-China relations are depicting that Pakistan is solidifying its relations with China.
Writer Faisal Yahya in his research report has written that for maintaining strategic
balance of power in the region and due to increasing India-US strategic partnership,
Pakistan will be forced to re-design its foreign policy aligned eastward towards China.
(Yahya 2004)35 This is true given strained Indo-Pak and Pak-US relations. Pakistan must
see East as suitable alternative. The Eastward strategy will strengthen Pak-China relations
and provide opportunity to challenge the legality of India’s inclusion into the NSG.
Eastward policy will be partnership based on mutual respect. The CPEC project is glaring
example of Pakistan’s re-alignment of foreign policy priority towards the east. China has
supported Pakistan at all regional and global forums by negating international pressure by
using its diplomatic clout. Pak-china strategic relationship is acting as counterbalance to
growing Indo-US partnership.

4.3.2 China Pakistan Economic corridor CPEC

CPEC is major part of China’s greater regional integration project known as “One Belt
One Road” Initiative. It has become platform for broader and substantive partnership

35
Yahya, Faizal. Pakistan, SAARC and ASEAN Relations” Contemporary Southeast Asia. Journal of International and
Strategic Affairs, 2004.

22
 between china and Pakistan. Development of Gawadar port is vital project under CPEC.
CPEC project is designed to link china via Pakistan with rest of the world especially
Central Asian states. Minhas Majeed khan and Saira Ijaz in their research report has
mentioned that Pakistan has been picked by China for regional connectivity project due
to strategic position of Pakistan. Thus, it’s a game changer project for entire region. (Ijaz
2017)36 This project has been termed as game changer because it has elevated Pakistan
profile from backward country to a frontline country that is crucial route for global
commercial and economic connectivity .CPEC may also act as an important response
strategy to counterbalance the growing Indian influence in the region. It is expected that
once China materialize its BRI project by developing connectivity with Central Asian
states, Africa, Eurasia it will emerge as new super Power. It will compel US to accept
peaceful co-existence with China. This would also raise importance of Pakistan as
important state for ensuring peace and stability in the region. Subsequently, US will
realize and accept genuine concerns of Pakistan which are resulted due to growing Indo-
US strategic Partnership.

4.3.3 Engage with Afghanistan government

The Taliban forces took control of Afghanistan’s capital Kabul on 15 august 2021 after a
military offensive that started in May 2021. After fall of Kabul, Taliban have regained the
control of Afghanistan government. In September 2021, Taliban announced interim
government headed by Ameer Hibatullah Akhundzada.The major regional actors like
Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan have kept their embassies open in Afghanistan and have
expressed their commitment to engage with the new government. However, Taliban’s
swift takeover of Afghanistan has further deteriorated Pak-US relations because US

36
Ijaz, Minhas Majeed Khan and Saira. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Game Changer. The Institute of
Strategic Studies Islamabad,, 2017.

23
 considers Pakistan as a responsible for US defeat in the Afghanistan by providing safe
sanctuaries to militants in Pakistan. US government is also facing criticism due to
mismanaged withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan National security Advisor has also
asked US not to treat Pakistan as a “scapegoat”. Pakistan has played its positive role in
Afghan peace process by persuading Taliban for peace talks with US. In 2020, Doha
Agreement was signed between US and Taliban.
Pakistan still has critical role to play in stability of Afghanistan. However, there are grave
challenges for Pakistan as well. With Taliban takeover of Kabul, anti-terrorists groups
like TTP will be emboldened and may initiate terrorists’ attacks in Pakistan by using
Afghan soil for creating Islamic rule in Pakistan on similar pattern like in Afghanistan
Reportedly, Taliban have also released hundreds of TTP militants from prison. Here,
strong Pak-China relations can be very fruitful in maintaining peace and stability in
Afghanistan. China massive investment in Afghanistan may help Taliban government to
keep care of Pakistan interests by taking action against TTP militants. Chinese diplomat
has also met with Taliban government representative in Qatar in September 2021 to
discuss issues of mutual interest especially China’s concern over ETIM. China has
announced to billion dollars investment in Afghanistan. It is pertinent to mention here
that India backed pro-western governments in Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai and
Ashraf Ghani as a main tool to destabilize Pakistan. RAW and NDS nexus in Afghanistan
fuelled terrorists attacks in Pakistan. Pakistan has received sigh of relief after end of
Raw-NDS collaboration as a result of fall of Kabul. China will extend its BRI project to
Afghanistan and will fill political vacuum created by US withdrawal. This will further
counter Indo-US strategic cooperation in the region.

4.3.4 Improvement of relations with Russia

The Pak-Russia relations, developing at a slow pace after disintegration of Soviet Union
in 1991, have gained momentum in recent years. Since US raid in 2011 that killed
Osama Bin Laden and growing Indo-US strategic relations, Pakistan has deepened its
relations with China and sought friendship with Russia also. However, Pakistan’s
relations with Russia are new and evolving in upward trajectory. Both countries are
trying their best to move forward. Recently, in a landmark development both countries

24
 have signed Gas pipeline project from Karachi to Kasur. In Cold War era, Pakistan was
key ally of US while India was partner of USSR. Recent shifts in global system have
provided opportunity to both countries to develop their mutual relationship. Therefore,
Pakistan should increase its diplomatic terms with Russia and work to develop
partnership in strategic and economic areas. For Pakistan, its right time for this
partnership, keeping in view strained US-Russia relations and strong Indo-US relations.
This will help Pakistan to get Russia’s support in procurement of advanced Russians
weapons especially anti-ballistic missile.

4.3.5 Maintaining of balanced relations with Iran and KSA

For decades, Pakistan has remained closer to Saudi Arabia than Iran. However, in last
few years Pakistan has pursued more balanced approach to avoid being labeled as pro-
Saudi and anti-Iran. In 2015, Pakistan remained neutral as Saudi led coalition started
military campaign against Iran supported Houthis in Yemen. In 2016, KSA and Iran
relations witnessed decline due to execution of Shia cleric in Saudi Arab. In 2019, PM
Imran khan visited Iran and Saudi Arab to facilitate to establish dialogue between both
countries. In 2021, PM Imran khan also welcomed Saudi Arabia’s peace initiative with
Iran. Pakistan’s good relations with Iran will help to counter Indian efforts to destabilize
Baluchistan. Additionally, resumption of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline can also contribute to
developing relations between both neighbors. On other hand Saudi Arab is important
friend of Pakistan who has always helped Pakistan in time of crisis. Harmonious relations
with Saudi Arab would be helpful in countering Indian influence in Middle East.
However, growing relations with Saudi Arab must not include anti-Iran position. By
developing strong relations with Iran and Saudi Arab, Pakistan can counterbalance
increasing Indian power in the South Asia and Middle East region.
The writer Javed Husain while commenting Pak-Iran relations has said that relations
between both countries are complex due to allegations of cross border terrorism. The role
of Pakistan in Saudi led Military alliance irked Iran. While case of Indian spy Kulbushan
Jadhav who crossed Iran border to enter in Pakistan for fomenting terrorism in
Baluchistan has raised Pakistan reservation about Iran. Additionally, attack on Iranian

25
 border force by Sunni militant Jaish-e-Adal and persecution of Shia community in
Pakistan are few areas upsetting Pakistan-Iran relations. (Javed 2017)37 Pakistan and Iran
must work together to solve their bilateral issues. While Pakistan is suffering from energy
crisis, on other hand Iran is energy abundant country. According to Iran-Pakistan gas
pipeline, Pakistan will get gas from Iran at subsidized rates. Meanwhile, the benefit of
having cordial relations with Iran not only suit Pakistan, China will be equally beneficial
through CPEC because it will save China’s spending much on energy projects under
CPEC. Revival of Iran gas pipeline will strengthen strategic relationship between China,
Pakistan and Iran.
4.3.6 Putting our house in order
Pakistan should put its own house in order on many fronts. In 2015, Former PM Nawaz
Sharif also presented this narrative. In 2021, Chief of Army Staff, Qamar Javed Bajwa
also stressed on same narrative” (Bajwa 2021)38Pakistan should abandon its policy of
using non-state actors against India because this policy has caused global embarrassment
for Pakistan. Pakistan must take action against all forms of terrorists groups without
labeling them as good or bad. Former Ambassador Inam ul Haq, while discussing the
emerging geopolitical dynamics and policy options for Pakistan said that amid increasing
China-US strategic competition Pakistan needs to put its own house in order by
improving its governance and economy. There is need to focus on domestic issues such
as education, governance, health, and population. By putting its house in order, Pakistan
will be able to pursue more vibrant and strong foreign policy to counter negative
implications caused by growing indo-US cooperation.

4.3.6 Active Participation in Regional Organizations : SAARC and SCO

Asia-Pacific region is witnessing drastic changes particularly in terms of alliances and
counter alliances. Indo-US strategic cooperation is aimed at countering growing influence

37
Javed, Hussain. Strains in Pakistan-Iran relations. The Nation, 2017.
38
Bajwa, General Qamar javed. Dawn news. 2021. https://www.dawn.com/news/1614710/putting-ones-own-
house-in-order (accessed 2021).

26
 of China in the region. USA has selected India as a counterweight to China. On other
hand, Pakistan has deepened its relation with China and Russia. There are two major
regional blocs i.e SCO and SAARC. Pakistan and India are member of both regional
blocs. SAARC is not functional due to India-Pakistan hostile relations. While SCO is
active regional alliance. The SCO has emerged as major actor in regional and global
affairs. US foreign policy experts consider SCO as a challenge to interests of US. Few
label it as “China’s NATO”. SCO is important regional alliance. After withdrawal of US
from the Afghanistan, SCO is expected to play crucial role in the region. Pakistan has
strong strategic relations with China while relations with Russia are improving. China
and Russia are two key actors of SCO. Therefore, Pakistan must ensure its active
participation in SCO to counter negative repercussions caused by growing Indo-US
strategic relationship.

4.3.7 Continue active diplomatic relations with US: Increase Lobbying in US

Finally, Pakistan should try to improve its relation with the US. Pakistan must increase its
influence by increasing its lobbying in US. In this regard, Pakistani diaspora in US can
play their active role in realizing US about Pakistan’s importance in geostrategic
environment of South Asia. There are several areas where US and Pakistan can mutually
work together such as combating terrorism, climate change, stability in south Asia and
strengthening of bilateral relations in economic, cultural, commercial and technical areas.
Former Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani while discussing future of Pak-US relations has
mentioned that Pakistan is trapped in crossfire between the China-US rivalry and there is
increasing fear that it would be difficult for Pakistan to maintain neutrality .However,
Pakistan must maintain neutrality and balance in its relation with China and US.

27
Chapter 5

CONCLUSION

The level of collaboration between India and US validates that Indo-US strategic partnership has
severe repercussions for Pakistan and would adversely upset the regional balance of Power
between India and Pakistan. Nuclear and defense cooperation between India and US has
drastically caused asymmetry in power equation of the south Asia. The growing Indo-US
partnership is aimed at achieving long term goal. Countering China, which the US regards as
“strategic competitor”, will require powerful India. Therefore, USA has decided to equip India
with arms and power to serve as its proxy against rising China. Undoubtedly, powerful India will
maximize its regional hegemony and Pakistan will face direct implications. It is pertinent to
mention here that, growing Indo-US partnership has not only created regional strategic
imbalance, it has also contributed to the increasing hostility between India and Pakistan. Amid
this hostile regional politics, China has supported Pakistan at all international forums where India
had attempted to isolate Pakistan. To counter the threats arising from Indo-US strategic
relationship, Pakistan must formulate well thought and strong response strategy. Pakistan must
pursue Eastward policy by developing deeper ties with China and Russia. Pakistan must ensure
active and vibrant participation in SCO. Thus, military and economic relations with China, better
relations with Russia and Iran and enhanced terms with Saudi Arabia and Turkey may prove
beneficial in countering negative repercussions caused by growing Indo-USs strategic
partnership.

28
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