ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

29 July 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in the UK and England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.2. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 25 July 2021)

Please Note:Incidence estimates were updated on 21 July 2021.

ZOE is using updated methods to account for the rapidly changing situation in the UK
and the high proportion of vaccinated people.

If you have any questions about the methodology updates, please get in touch with:
covidteam@joinzoe.com.
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 59301 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 25 July 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (25 July 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

East Midlands 71 - 99 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
East of England 68 - 88 1.0 (0.9 - 1.1)
England 84 - 108 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
London 113 - 136 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
North East 115 - 167 1.0 (0.8 - 1.0)
North West 84 - 110 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
Northern Ireland 61 - 191 1.2 (1.0 - 1.5)
Scotland 30 - 52 0.8 (0.6 - 1.0)
South East 68 - 83 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
South West 71 - 91 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Wales 32 - 61 1.0 (0.9 - 1.1)
West Midlands 80 - 109 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Yorkshire and The Humber 92 - 123 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases of COVID in UK by vaccination status
Daily new cases of COVID in UK and England
Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
 Prevalence estimates
(up to 28 July 2021)

Please note: Prevalence estimates were updated on 21 July 2021

UK prevalence is calculated using the UK incidence figure combined with a recovery

model. Therefore, as a result of the updated incidence figures, the UK prevalence figures
have also been updated.

If you have any questions about the methodology updates, please get in touch with:
covidteam@joinzoe.com.
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID

Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 59410 1248 1 in 80

East of England 65744 1072 1 in 93
London 149366 1687 1 in 59
North East 42945 1630 1 in 61
North West 98415 1361 1 in 73
(*) Northern Ireland 26263 1407 1 in 71
Scotland 40007 743 1 in 135
South East 91732 1015 1 in 99
South West 57460 1039 1 in 96
Wales 20580 662 1 in 151
West Midlands 64356 1100 1 in 91
Yorkshire and The Humber 88429 1628 1 in 61
TOTAL 804707 1222 1 in 82
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 300408 1510 1 in 66
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 239794 1196 1 in 84
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 264505 1022 1 in 98
TOTAL 804707 1222 1 in 82
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 45821 569 1 in 176
Age 10 - 19 184639 2456 1 in 41
Age 20 - 29 246555 2829 1 in 35
Age 30 - 39 143790 1628 1 in 61
Age 40 - 49 96957 1141 1 in 88
Age 50 - 59 58361 651 1 in 154
Age 60 - 69 17586 249 1 in 402
Age 70 - 79 8464 154 1 in 648
Age 80 - 89 2535 94 1 in 1065
TOTAL 804707 1222 1 in 82
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East of England Thurrock
● 3280 (2336 - 4589) 982

London Bexley
● 1998 (1536 - 2595) 2724

Camden
● 2088 (1669 - 2608) 3599

Ealing
▲ 1860 (1477 - 2340) 3805

Hackney
● 2443 (1948 - 3060) 2994

Hammersmith and Fulham

▲ 2856 (2267 - 3591) 2461

Haringey
▲ 2453 (2037 - 2951) 4431

Havering
▼ 2014 (1527 - 2653) 2431

Islington
▲ 2124 (1708 - 2638) 3730

Lambeth
● 2142 (1786 - 2566) 5329

Merton
● 1784 (1386 - 2295) 3309

Tower Hamlets
● 2187 (1669 - 2863) 2342

Waltham Forest
▲ 2088 (1616 - 2694) 2744

North East Newcastle upon Tyne

● 1811 (1386 - 2363) 2910

Redcar and Cleveland

▲ 1844 (1136 - 2981) 860

Stockton-on-Tees
● 3953 (3067 - 5082) 1454

North West Bolton

▲ 1808 (1270 - 2569) 1663

Manchester
● 2079 (1643 - 2628) 3258

Northern Ireland Belfast

▲ 2076 (1357 - 3165) 994

South East Portsmouth

▲ 2012 (1507 - 2681) 2238
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Wales Bridgend
● 2696 (2001 - 3623) 1559

Yorkshire and The Humber Barnsley

▼ 2472 (1788 - 3408) 1442

Bradford
▲ 2203 (1788 - 2711) 3918

Kingston upon Hull, City of

● 2206 (1453 - 3337) 970

Sheffield
● 1788 (1492 - 2142) 6418

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 28 July 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 30929 964 3.02 %

East of England 57070 1738 2.96 %
London 59999 2873 4.57 %
North East 13902 520 3.61 %
North West 39839 1370 3.32 %
Northern Ireland 2637 115 4.18 %
Scotland 28018 843 2.92 %
South East 105394 3077 2.84 %
South West 57773 1788 3.00 %
Wales 24190 617 2.49 %
West Midlands 31033 954 2.98 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 31888 1156 3.50 %
TOTAL 482672 16015 3.21 %
Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.
• 2021-07-16: Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as
there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence
Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer
representative.
• 2021-07-21: Released the latest version of incidence. This new estimate adjusts for
the decreasing number of unvaccinated users in our initial cohort by relaxing the
inclusion criteria of newly sick and incorporating LFTs. An age weighting was also
employed to have a reliable representation of the UK population in our estimates
over all age segments. Incidence figures broken down by vaccination status were
also rolled out. We have written a comprehensive blog on this to help explain this
change further, read more here.