MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND

TRAINING NATIONAL ECONOMICS

UNIVERSITY
***

GROUP MID-TERM
EXAM
Course: Mathematical
Statistics TOPIC:
Descriptive Statistics
Lecturer: Trần Thị Bích

Members: Đặng Hà Dân 11221187

Nguyễn Duy Anh 11223730
Trần Văn Khánh 11223082
Triệu Hoàng Quân 11225413
Trương Công Bắc 11220761
Nguyễn Thanh Tùng 11226752
Contents
Part 1: Summarize the article ................................................................. 2
1. The article .......................................................................................... 2
2. The issue of interest ........................................................................... 2
3. The technique .................................................................................... 3
4. Additional references of Sampling Distribution and Estimation ... 4
5. Viewpoint ........................................................................................... 5
Part 2 : Data analysis to a specific organizational problem .................. 8
About Cristiano Ronaldo ...................................................................... 8

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Part 1: Summarize the article

1. The article
COVID-19 wastewater epidemiology: a model to estimate infected
populations ( written by Christopher S McMahan, Stella Self, Lior
Rennert, Corey Kalbaugh, David Kriebel, Duane Graves, Cameron
Colby, Jessica A Deaver, Sudeep C Popat, Tanju Karanfil, David L
Freedman)

Source:https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-
5196%2821%2900230-8

2. The issue of interest

Early detection and containment of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is essential
to containing community outbreaks of COVID-19. Clinical testing of
every individual in a community is impractical and expensive. By
contrast, environmental surveillance can enable continuous, cost-
effective means of monitoring communities for early warnings of
outbreaks and subsequent progress. Wastewater-based epidemiology
is a promising tool to assess COVID-19 prevalence in an area. Both
symptomatic and asymptotic individuals shed SARS-CoV-2 in their
faeces, and studies have shown detection of SARS-CoV-2 genes in
raw sewage and primary sewage treatment sludge is possible.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been used extensively to detect

the presence of infected individuals, ranging from an individual
building level to the community level. In a building, determining the
presence or absence of infection is sufficient to guide mitigation
efforts, whereas at the community level, quantifying the extent (ie,
having a viable means to estimate the number of cases) could allow
local governments to informatively tailor policies on the basis of the

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 severity of the outbreak. Before wastewater-based epidemiology can
be widely adapted for COVID-19 prevention and management, a
method is needed to estimate the number of active infections from the
viral RNA load detected in wastewater. To capture the infection
dynamics of COVID-19, researchers used a susceptible-exposed-
infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, which has been previously used
to predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The SEIR model used in this
study estimated the number of infections on the basis of the mass rate
of virus RNA in sewage (ie, gene copies per day ) for two of the three
wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) monitored, accounting for
variability in factors such as faecal production rate, SARS-CoV-2
RNA density.

3. The technique
The above academic article uses two techniques which are: sampling
distribution combined with estimation.

-Firstly, about sampling distribution researchers use this method

because there are many cases that can’t have enough time and money
to analyze
A lot of data drawn and used by academicians, statisticians,
researchers, marketers, analysts, etc. are actually samples, not
populations. A sample is a subset of a population. For example, a
medical researcher that wanted to compare the average weight of all
babies born in North America from 1995 to 2005 to those born in
South America within the same time period cannot draw the data for
the entire population of over a million childbirths that occurred over
the ten-year time frame within a reasonable amount of time. They will
instead only use the weight of, say, 100 babies, in each continent to
make a conclusion. The weight of 100 babies used is the sample and
the average weight calculated is the sample mean.
Now suppose that instead of taking just one sample of 100
newborn weights from each continent, the medical researcher takes

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 repeated random samples from the general population, and computes
the sample mean for each sample group. So, for North America, they
pull up data for 100 newborn weights recorded in the U.S., Canada,
and Mexico as follows: four 100 samples from select hospitals in the
U.S., five 70 samples from Canada, and three 150 records from
Mexico, for a total of 1,200 weights of newborn babies grouped in 12
sets. They also collect a sample data of 100 birth weights from each
of the 12 countries in South America.

-Secondly, about estimation researchers use this technique to

aggregate data in the estimated interval which 95% confidence

Estimation in statistics helps companies, election officials,

healthcare professionals, scientists, mathematicians, etc. to determine
a trend in data. In order to determine this trend, measuring data using
''point'' or ''interval'' estimation helps the observer view and assume
certain conclusions. This can be done by using sample size data from
a whole observation. However, dependent on the type of data one is
collecting, it could possibly skew the data.

Think of an election year. If a sample was taken from one

locality of the state that typically has similar voting preferences, then
the data will not demonstrate the population as a whole. Thus,
garnering and using sample size data needs to be observed across a
wide range to be able to see any trends.

4. Additional references of Sampling Distribution and Estimation

a.First source

Dhama, K Khan S, Tiwari R et al.

Coronavirus Disease 2019—COVID-19.

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 https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/cmr.00028-20

b. Second source

Hart OE, Halden RU

Computational analysis of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
surveillance by wastewater-based epidemiology locally and
globally: feasibility, economy, opportunities and challenges.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972
0323925

5. Viewpoint
In order to have higher precise percentage of predict the trend of
transmissibility, which increases situational awareness and inform
interventions, and since the official individual patient data rarely
become publicly available on time when it is most needed, I suppose
that the crowdsourced data from social media sources plays an vital
role to help monitor the COVID-19 outbreak

This is a wastewater-based epidemiology study using wastewater

samples that were collected weekly or twice a week from three
sewersheds in South Carolina, USA, between either May 27 or June
16, 2020, and Aug 25, 2020, and tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA.
Researchers developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered
(SEIR) model based on the mass rate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the
wastewater to predict the number of infected individuals, and have
also provided a simplified equation to predict this. Model predictions
were compared with the number of confirmed cases identified by the

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Department of Health and Environmental Control, South Carolina,
USA, for the same time period and geographical area

There is a simplified equation to estimate the number of infected

individuals fell within the 95% confidence limits of the model. The
rate of unreported COVID-19 cases, as estimated by the model, was
approximately 11 times that of confirmed cases (ie, ratio of estimated
infections for every confirmed case of 10·9, 95% CI 4·2–17·5). This
rate aligned well with an independent estimate of 15 infections for
every confirmed case in the US state of South Carolina.

Hundreds of communities worldwide are now using wastewater

surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. Wastewater surveillance fills a gap left
by incomplete individual testing. Nevertheless, the usefulness of
wastewater-based epidemiology has been limited by the difficulty of
relating the prevalence of the virus in wastewater to the number of
infected individuals. The model presented here offers a method to
estimate the number of infected individuals based on the mass rate of
RNA in wastewater. Mass rate is a preferred method compared with
using virus concentration. Sewerage collection systems in most areas
are subject to dilution through stormwater runoff and infiltration,
thereby lowering the concentration of virus during rain events. Use of
a mass rate mitigates this effect by focusing on the product of flow
rate and concentration— ie, mass rates are unaffected by a decrease
in concentration when multiplied by an increase in flow rate, and vice
versa. Consideration should also be given to monitoring virus
concentrations using settled solids in place of raw sewage, as virus

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concentrations associated with settled solids are also less likely to be
influenced by dilution.

In spite of these limitations, the SEIR model shown in this study

provides a framework for quantifying the relationship between the
mass rate of viral release in a sewershed and the numbers of infected
individuals present. The model was validated on the basis of estimated
prevalence from individual testing. Furthermore, the model was used
to estimate the under-reporting rate of COVID-19 in the study area
over two time periods. Equipped with a method to quantify the
numbers of infected individuals within a sewershed (while
considering the uncertainty about these numbers), policy makers now
have an additional tool that can aid in tailoring policy and decision
making.

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Part 2 : Data analysis to a specific organizational problem

About Cristiano Ronaldo

Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro is a Portuguese professional
footballer who plays as a forward for Premier League club Manchester
United and captains the Portugal national team.

● Current team: Portugal national football team (#7 / Forward)

Trending
● Born: February 5, 1985 (age 37 years), Hospital Dr. Nélio
Mendonça, Funchal, Portugal
● Height: 1.87 m

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