Global Climate Change

MEVE 011
Indira Gandhi National Open University

School of Interdisciplinary and
Trans-disciplinary Studies
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
School of Interdisciplinary and Trans-disciplinary Studies

Indira Gandhi National Open University
PROGRAMME DESIGN COMMITTEE
Dr. Himanshu Pathak, Prof. P.A. Azeez Prof I.S. Thakur
Director, ICAR-National Director, SACON, School of Environmental
Rice Research Institute Coimbatore Sciences, JNU, New Delhi
Cuttack, Odisha
Prof Uma Melkania Prof. Nidhi Rai Prof. Jitendra Pandey,
Dean, College of Basic University College of Department of Botany,
Sciences and Humanities, Science, M.L. Sukhadia Faculty of Science, BHU
GBPUAT, Pantnagar University, Udaipur
Prof. R. Baskar Dr. Surendra Singh Suthar, Dr. Tanushree Bhattacharya,
Dept. of Environmental School of Environment & Department of Civil and
Science & Engineering, Natural Resources, Doon Environmental Engineering,
Guru Jambheshwar University, Dehradun Birla Institute of
University of Science & Technology, Mesra, Ranchi
Technology, Hisar, Haryana
Dr. Pulak Das Prof. Jaswant Sokhi Prof Neera Kapoor
School of Human Ecology, SOS, IGNOU SOS, IGNOU
Ambedkar University, Delhi New Delhi. New Delhi.
Prof. Vijay Kumar Baraik, Prof. P.K. Biswas Prof. S.K.Yadav
SOS, IGNOU STRIDE, IGNOU SOA, IGNOU
New Delhi. New Delhi. New Delhi.
Prof. Shachi Shah Prof. Nandini Sinha Kapoor, Prof. Shubhangi Vaidya,
Director SOITS, IGNOU, SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi. SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi.
New Delhi.
Prof. B. Rupini Dr. Sadananda Sahoo, Dr. Sushmitha Baskar,
SOITS, IGNOU, New SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi. SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi.
Delhi.
Dr. V. Venkat Ramanan, Dr. Deeksha Dave Dr. Y.S.C. Khuman
SOITS, IGNOU SOITS, IGNOU SOITS, IGNOU
PROGRAMME COORDINATORS
Prof. Shachi Shah Dr. V. Venkat Ramanan, Dr. Deeksha Dave
School of Interdisciplinary School of Interdisciplinary School of Interdisciplinary
and Trans-disciplinary and Trans-disciplinary and Trans-disciplinary
Studies, IGNOU Studies, IGNOU Studies, IGNOU
COURSECOORDINATOR
Dr. V. Venkat Ramanan, School of Interdisciplinary and Trans-disciplinary Studies, IGNOU,
New Delhi.
CONTENT EDITORS
Prof. Shachi Shah, Dr. V. Venkat Ramanan,
School of Interdisciplinary and Trans- School of Interdisciplinary and Trans-
disciplinary Studies, IGNOU, New Delhi. disciplinary Studies, IGNOU, New Delhi.
BLOCK PREPARATION TEAM

Units Contributors
1, 3, 4 Dr. Ragini Kumari, ARD, IGNOU, New Delhi.
2 Dr. Ujjwal Kumar, SENR - School of Environment & Natural Resource,
Doon University, Dehradun
5 Dr. Omkar Verma, (Adopted from MEV 021),
School of Science, IGNOU, New Delhi
6 Dr. Sandhya Misra (Adopted from MEV 021), Birbal Sahni Institute of
Palaeosciences, Lucknow.
Dr. Krishna G. Misra (Unit 6), Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences,
Lucknow.
Dr. Vikram Singh Negi (Unit 6), Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences,
Lucknow.
Dr. Akhilesh Kumar Yadava (Unit 6), Birbal Sahni Institute of
Palaeosciences, Lucknow.
7 Dr. Puneeta Pandey, Assistant Professor, Centre for Environmental
Sciences and Technology, School of Environment and Earth Sciences,
Central University of Punjab, Bathinda.
8 Dr. Puneeta Pandey, (Adopted from MEV 021), Assistant Professor,
Centre for Environmental Sciences and Technology, School of
Environment and Earth Sciences, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda.
9 Dr. Nisha Varghese, (Adopted from MEV 022), SOEDS, IGNOU
10 Dr. Shiv Prasad, (Adopted from MEV 022), Principal Scientist, CESCRA,
IARI New Delhi.
Dr. K.R. Sheetal, (Unit 10), ICAR-Central Arid Zone Research Institute,
Regional Research Station Bikaner, Rajasthan.
Dr. P.S. Renjith, (Unit 10), ICAR-Central Arid Zone Research Institute,
Regional Research Station Bikaner, Rajasthan.
11 Dr. Shresth Tayal, Area Convener, Centre for Himalayan Ecology,
Adjunct Faculty, TERI University.
12 Dr. Sushmitha Baskar, (Unit 12), Environmental Studies, SOITS, IGNOU,
New Delhi.
13 Prof. Shachi Shah, (Adopted from MEV 023), Environmental Studies,
SOITS, IGNOU, New Delhi.
14, 15 Dr. Umesh Chandra Pandey, Regional Director, IGNOU, New Delhi.
16 Dr. G. Uma, SOGDS, IGNOU, New Delhi.
FORMAT AND LANGUAGE EDITORS

Prof. Shachi Shah, School of Dr. V. Venkat Ramanan, Environmental
Interdisciplinary and Trans-disciplinary Studies, School of Interdisciplinary and
Studies, IGNOU, New Delhi. Trans-disciplinary Studies, IGNOU, New
Delhi.
PRODUCTION
Mr. Tilak Raj
Assistant Registrar
MPDD, IGNOU, New Delhi
January, 2022
©Indira Gandhi National Open University, 2022
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Contents
Page
BLOCK 1 INTRODUCTION TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Unit 1 Atmosphere and Climate
Unit 2 Physical Basis of Climate Change
Unit 3 Natural Causes of Climate change
Unit 4 Anthropogenic Causes of Climate change
BLOCK 2 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE – PAST AND FUTURE
CLIMATE
Unit 5 Account of Past Climate
Unit 6 Environmental Indicators and Instrumental Records
Unit 7 Climate Variability and Extreme Weather Events
Unit 8 Predicting Future Climate
BLOCK 3 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Unit 9 Agriculture
Unit 10 Ocean Ecosystem
Unit 11 Mountain and Hill Ecosystems
Unit 12 Human Health
BLOCK 4 RESPONSE STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Unit 13 Adaptive Strategies and Capacities
Unit 14 Mitigation Strategies
Unit 15 Education and Capacity Building
Unit 16 Climate Change Policy
COURSE INTRODUCTION
Earth is a constantly changing planet since its formation around 4.6 billion
years ago and hence, its climate is also witnessing changes from time to time.
Weather and climate have a profound influence on life on earth. Over time,
the earth has developed a climate that nurtures the life system and the planet
is flourished with a whole lot of flora, fauna and human beings. The survival
of human beings is solely dependent on the conducive climate that the earth
provides. However, human intervention has changed the climate system
adversely.Climate change as science has received unprecedented attention
from both scientific institutions and academia. Climate change is a global
issue that requires worldwide cooperation and negotiations for developing the
necessary actions to combat its effects. This requires the integration of
adaptation into existing policies and processes, taking into account the
broader policy objectives and wider costs and benefits.This course covers
climate system, causes of climate change, past and future climate, impacts of
climate change and conventions on climate change.
Objectives
After studying this course, you should be able to:
• discuss the structure and composition of the atmosphere;
• discuss the global energy budget;
• discuss the climate forcing mechanism;
• explain the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change;
• describe the sources of palaeoclimate information;
• explain the significance of instrumental records and proxy climate
indicators;
• discuss the extreme weather events;
• explain the emission scenarios;
• explain the impacts of climate change on agriculture, ocean ecosystem,
mountain ecosystems and human health;
• explain the adaptive strategies from the perspective of climate change;
• discuss the mitigation strategies;
• discuss climate change education;
• explain the significance of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement on
Climate Change; and
• describe National Action Plan on Climate Change.
We hope that you would enjoy reading the self-learning material.

Wishing you success in this endeavour!
BLOCK 1
INTRODUCTION TO GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE
BLOCK 1 INTRODUCTION
Weather and climate have a profound influence on life on earth. Over time,
the earth has developed a climate that nurtures the life system and the planet
is flourished with a whole lot of flora, fauna and human beings. The survival
of human beings is solely dependent on the conducive climate that the earth
provides. However, human intervention has changed the climate system
adversely. This block covers the climate system, the physical basis of climate
change and natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change.
Unit 1 "Atmosphere and Climate" deals with the structure and composition of
the atmosphere and global energy budget.
Unit 2 “Physical Basis of Climate Change” deals with radiative forcing,
radiation balance and climate forcing mechanism.
Unit 3 “Natural Causes of Climate Change” deals with the natural causes of
climate change like earth’s obliquity, eccentricity, precession, volcanic
eruptions, changes in ocean currents, etc.
Unit 4 “Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Change” deals with the role of
urbanization, deforestation and desertification on climate change.
OBJECTIVES
After studying this block, you should be able to:
• discuss radiation balance;
• discuss the climate forcing mechanism;
• explain the Earth’s tilt, rotation and orbital changes;
• explain the role of volcanic eruptions on climate change;
• explain the El Niño, La Niña Cycle and the Arctic Oscillation;
• explain the role of tectonic plates movement on climate change;
• explain the role of urbanization on climate change;
• explain the role of deforestation and desertification on climate change;
and
• explain the greenhouse gases emissions from the agriculture and
livestock sector.
We hope that after studying this block, you will acquire an understanding of
the climate system.
Atmosphere and
UNIT 1 ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE Climate
Structure
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 The Atmosphere
1.3.1 Thermal Stratification of Earth’s Atmosphere
1.3.2 Atmospheric Pressure
1.3.3 Composition of the Atmosphere
1.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gases

1.3.3.2 Aerosols
1.4 Solar Radiation
1.4.1 Global Energy Budget
1.5 Weather and Climate
1.5.1 Climate Variables
1.5.2 Climate Classification

1.5.3 Climate Change and Climate Variability
1.6 Let Us Sum Up
1.7 Key Words
1.8 Suggested Further Reading/References
1.9 Answers to Check Your Progress
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Weather and climate have a profound influence on life on earth. They affect
landforms, soil types and vegetation. They are part of the daily experience of
human beings and are essential for their health, food production and
wellbeing. To understand the science of climate change, it is important to
study the structure of the atmosphere, atmospheric composition, Global
Energy Budget, climate variables and climate classification. Through this
unit, we would be discussing the structure and composition of atmosphere,
and global energy budget, identify climate variables, differentiate between
climate change and climate variability.
1.2 OBJECTIVES
After studying this unit, you should be able to:
• define the atmosphere and climate;

9
Introduction to
Global Climate • identify the climate variables; and
Change
• differentiate between climate change and climate variability
1.3 THE ATMOSPHERE

Earth came to existence about 4.5 billion years ago and scientist found no
existence of atmosphere at that point. Then, natural volcanic activity was a
continuous phenomenon and the Earth existed in the form of hot gaseous
mass having surface temperature more than 80000C. The gases captured
inside the magma slowly released. Major gases emitted then were carbon
dioxide (CO2), water vapour and ammonia and the atmosphere were devoid
of oxygen i.e., reducing atmosphere. Later, as Earth started to cool down,
cloud started to form and as a result, the Earth experienced rain and water
bodies like ocean basins got filled up. CO2 present in the atmosphere
dissolved with water and carbonic acid so formed poured down on the Earth
and that’s how carbonate rock would have formed. Scientists have given
many theories behind the formation of Earth’s atmosphere and life in
particular. It was water and presence of sunlight that has made possible the
formation of oxygen over geological time scale and so to the life of the Earth.
On planet Earth, life became possible as a result of having blanket of gases

called atmosphere which extends up to 9600Km from the Earth’s surface. An
interesting question comes to our mind. What makes possible the gaseous
blanket, called atmosphere to surround the Earth? Any guess? Of course, the
gravitational pull of the Earth makes atmosphere inseparable from the mother
Earth.
As, we move higher in altitude, the density of air declines. Since, atmosphere
is made up gases so it can be compressed. Atmosphere has not only provided
the adequate temperature to sustain life but also given other suitable
conditions to flourish. Trenberth and Guillemot, 1994,estimated the total dry
mass of the atmosphere as 5.13 x 1018 Kg. More than 97% of the air is
concentrated up to 29km from the Earth’s surface. In spite of lesser density to
that of land (lithosphere) or water (hydrosphere), air exerts pressure on the
surface which is called as atmospheric pressure.
Is it good to have atmosphere on the Earth?
Undoubtedly you will respond, yes! It is this blanket of gases which provides
us O2 to breath and CO2 to plants to photosynthesize and much more. Ozone
made life possible by absorbing ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Over geographical
time scale i.e., millions of years the atmosphere got thermally stratified which
has impacted its composition and vice-versa.
10
1.3.1 Thermal Stratification of Earth’s Atmosphere Atmosphere and
Climate
Earth’s atmospheric temperature varies with height from the ground. The
atmosphere can be divided into five layers. Starting from the Earth’s surface,
these are troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and
exosphere.
Troposphere
The troposphere is the layer nearest to Earth's surface. The height of the
troposphere varies with location, being higher over warmer areas and lower
over colder areas. The boundary where troposphere ends is called the
tropopause. It varies with location ie., from 5-6 km at colder areas like pole
and 18 km at the warmer area like equator. This layer has the highest density
in comparison to the rest and contains 80% of the atmospheric mass.
Nitrogen is predominant (78% by volume) followed by oxygen (20.9%),
argon (0.93% by volume), carbon dioxide (0.04%), etc. This layer is very
turbulent and has strong vertical movement of air. Due to this vertical
movement of air mass, air pollution gets diluted from the point of its origin
and settles to the ground as a result of precipitation. All weather phenomena
occur in this layer. As you go up in the troposphere, atmospheric temperature
decline at the rate of 6.50C per km.
As we move up the air mass get colder in this layer and so it becomes heavier
and tries to push down air mass beneath which is warmer and that’s how
creates the vertical movement of air mass.
Fig.1.1: The layers of atmosphere.

Source: https://www.geol.umd.edu/~jmerck/geol100/lectures/33.html
11
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
Fig. 1.2: Relationship of temperature (0C) and pressure (mb) with height (km)
a) The Stratosphere
The Stratosphere is the layer next to the troposphere. “Strat” means layer and
this layer of our atmosphere has its own set of layers.This layer has
increasing temperature trend with height and air mass becomes stable. The
boundary where stratosphere ends is called the stratopause. This layer ends at
about 50 km above ground. Ozone (O3) is predominant in the stratosphere. O3
absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun that causes heating of air and so
temperature increases with height and temperature inversion got noticed. The
air mass in this layer is much drier and much less dense than troposphere.
b) The Mesosphere
The layer next to stratosphere is called mesosphere. It starts from about 50

km and extends until 85 km from the ground. The upper most part of the
mesosphere is called the mesopause. The temperature in this layer decreases
with height like troposphere. This layer has nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2)
but the concentration are 1000 times less and with little water vapor present,
there occurs no weather phenomena. The mesopause becomes the coldest part
of Earth's atmosphere having temperature records of about - 900C. There is
much work to be done by the meteorologists because it’s difficult to collect
data at such a height where even meteors coming from outer space even
burns up.
c) The Thermosphere (Ionosphere)
The thermosphere is the uppermost layer of the atmosphere. In this layer the
temperature increases with height because it is being directly heated by the
sun. It extends from about 90 km to between 500 and 1,000 km. It is so close
to the Sun that temperatures can be as high as 1,5000C and as a result
ionization occurs. Ionization is the process of conversion of atoms or
12 molecules into ions in the presence of solar radiation.This layer has minimal
air density and so looks at par with the outer space. This is the layer where Atmosphere and
horizontal layers get formed and as a result radio wave gets reflected from Climate
this layer. This is the layer from where the aurorae occur too. Aurorae are the
natural light displaying phenomena in the Earth’s sky called as, northern
polar lights i.e., in Arctic as Aurora Borealis and in Antarctic, southern lights
as Aurora Australis.
How Aurora are formed?
This layer is so close to the Sun that particles from space gets charged and
they collide with atoms and molecules, exciting them into higher energy
states. The atoms in the excited states release this surplus energy by emitting
photons of light, which we visualize as the colourful Aurora Borealis and
Aurora Australis.
d) The Exosphere
The last layer, the exosphere, the last-layer, is quite thin and is where the
atmosphere mingles into the outer space. It consists of very widely dispersed
particles of hydrogen and helium.
1.3.2 Atmospheric Pressure

Like temperature, as we move higher in altitude, atmospheric pressure
declines but rate of decline reduces with height. Table 1.1 shows the changes
in sea-level pressure with altitude.
Table 1.1: Changes in Sea-level pressure (%) with Altitude
Altitude (km) Percentage of Sea-level pressure

0 100
5.6 50
16.2 10
31.2 1
65.1 0.01
Why do temperature and pressure decrease with height?
The molecules that make up the atmosphere are pulled close to the earth's
surface by gravity. This causes the atmosphere to be concentrated at the
Earth's surface and thin rapidly with height. Air pressure is a measure of the
weight of the molecules above you. As you move up in the atmosphere there
are fewer molecules above you, so the air pressure is lower. For example, at
10 miles up, 90% of the atmosphere is below you. At the peak of Mount
Everest, the air pressure is 70% lower than it is at sea level. This means when
mountain climbers breathe air on top of the mountain, they are only inhaling
30% of the oxygen they would get at sea level. It is no surprise that most
climbers use oxygen tanks when they climb Mt. Everest.
13
Introduction to
Global Climate Temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. This is true for a
Change couple of different reasons. First, even though the sun's energy comes down
from the sky, it is mostly absorbed by the ground. The ground is constantly
releasing this energy, as heat in infrared light, so the troposphere is actually
heated from the ground up, causing it to be warmer near the surface and
cooler higher up. Another reason is the decreasing air pressure with height. If
the warm air at the surface gets blown upward into the cooler air above it, the
surface air will continue to rise. As air rises into areas of lower pressure it
expands because there are less molecules around it to compress it. The
molecules in the air use some of their energy to move apart from each other,
causing the air temperature to decrease. The constantly decreasing air
pressure in conjunction with the ground-up heating keeps the temperature in
the troposphere decreasing with height.
In the real atmosphere, the actual vertical temperature structure depends on

air masses with specific properties of temperature and humidity being blown
into the area as well as effects of daytime heating. If you have a layer of air
with warm temperatures above the surface, we call that an "inversion". That
layer can act as a cap which prevents clouds and sometimes severe weather
from forming.
1.3.3 Composition of the Atmosphere

Earth’s atmosphere consists of gases, water vapour and dust particles. The
major constituents of Earth’s atmosphere are molecular gases like nitrogen
(N2), oxygen (O2), followed by argon (Ar). These three gases together share
99.9% of total by volume. Three transition gases carbon dioxide (CO2), neon
(Ne), and helium (He) account for 0.04% and remaining 0.06% accounts
more than hundreds of trace gases including methane (CH4). Other minor
gaseous constituents are CO2 0.04% by volume, whose share is continuously
increasing with the industrialization as a result of consumption of fossil fuel.
Fossil fuel alone has contributed more than 6x1015g carbon per year to the
atmosphere followed by deforestation and changes in land use.
Concentrations of CO2 is generally expressed in percentages (%) as well as in

mixing ratio of it to total air volume, such as parts per million (ppm). The
percentages are the percentage of the atmosphere made up by these gases. For
example, in 2009, CO2 concentration was 385ppm (10-6v/v); which means for
every million molecules; about 385 of them are CO2. Concentration of CO2
has increased from 280 ppm to 410 ppm (10-6v/v) post-industrialization.
Argon, neon, krypton, xenon are chemically inert and present in traces in the
atmosphere. Apart from these gases, water vapour and particulate matter
(dust) also present in the atmosphere. Methane (CH4), commonly known as
swamp gas has present in traces and has shorter life i.e., 10 years to that of
CO2 having 150-200 years. The global warming potential of CH4 is 21 times
to that of CO2 over 100 years of time scale. India having agriculturally based
14 economy makes it of further interest since wetlands, submerged rice-fields
and domestic cattle are dominant sources of methane emission followed by Atmosphere and
biomass burning, landfills, coal mines, etc. Tropospheric O3, contributing Climate
towards the formation of smog and so it’s of importance. Particulate matter

(PM) in atmosphere is defined as any dispersed matter, solid or liquid.
Particle size and number density vary spatio-temporally. PM size varies from
0.1-10µ in the atmosphere. Composition of PM varies from urban to rural
environment as well. The particulate mass level ranges from 10 µg/m3 in
clean air to 60-2000 µg/m3 in the polluted air in urban areas.
Table1.2: Constituents of the Atmosphere in % by Volume
Gas Percentage by Volume

N2 78.1
O2 20.9
Ar 0.9
CO2 0.03
Ne 0.0018
He 0.00005
CH4 Trace
H2 0.00005
O3 0.00006
Kr Trace
Xe Trace
NMHCs Trace
Halocarbons Trace
Where, NMHCs= Non-Methane Hydrocarbons;
1.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases that absorb reradiated (long wave)
radiation from the earth and emit it back to the atmosphere. Increase in
GHGs in atmosphere enhances trapping of radiation and so add on to
warming of the Earth and vice versa. CO2, CH4, N2O, water vapour, Black
carbon (BC) etc. are responsible for warming of the Earth. Concentrations of
GHGs are commonly given in percentages as well as mixing ratios of gases
to total air volume (v/v), such as parts per trillion (ppt), parts per billion
(ppb), and parts per million (ppm). Potential sources of GHGs are burning of
fossil fuel. Fossil fuel is any hydrogen and carbon rich substance that was
created by the decomposition of prehistoric plants and animals that can be
burned to produce heat or energy. This includes coal, petroleum, and natural
gas products.
15
Introduction to
Global Climate GHGs like CO2, CH4, etc. whose percentages vary diurnally, seasonally, and
Change annually, interact with incoming solar radiation (insolation) and infrared
radiation which is also called long wave radiation re-emitted from the earth
which affect the energy balance. Even though, the GHG concentration is in
ppm levels, they can significantly alter the global energy balance and
temperature over a period of time. The CO2 concentration, in 2009, was
about 385ppm, and is increasing at an average global rate of 1.9ppm per
annum. Presently, the carbon dioxide concentration is about 410 ppm.
a) Carbon dioxide (CO2)
CO2 is the most dominant GHG in the atmosphere (excluding water vapor).
In its natural occurrence it helps keep the earth at a comfortable and life-
sustaining temperature. However, it is also registered to be the main culprit
behind global warming. Anthropogenic activities like burning of fossil fuels,
deforestation, biomass-burning and cement production are notable sources of
CO2 production. Natural sources include respiration and volcanic eruptions.
CO2 is removed predominantly from the ecosystem as a result of
photosynthesis by plants and through oceanic absorption. From year 1957,
atmospheric CO2 is measured at the South Pole and 1958 at Mauna Loa,
Hawaii.
b) Methane (CH4)
CH4 is more commonly known as swamp gas. This is the second most
abundant greenhouse gas and it is 21 times more efficient at warming than
CO2. CO2 is much more abundant in the atmosphere and remains in the
atmosphere for a much longer period of time than methane and therefore has
a larger overall warming effect in the atmosphere than methane does.
Methane is produced anthropogenically by landfills, ruminant livestock,
biomass burning and natural gas systems. Some natural sources are wetlands
and termites. Methane is the largest component of natural gas, which is used
as a fuel source once the contaminants are removed.
The atmospheric lifespan of a molecule of methane is estimated to be around

12 years. Until industrial revolution, CH4 concentration recorded was 730ppb
but it has increased more than three times in the last decade, 1774ppb. Total
annual emission of CH4 has been estimated as 600 Tg, 60% of the total share
is by anthropogenic activities like agriculture, burning of fossil fuel and from
waste. CH4 has a mean absorption band at 7.7µm and has residence time of 9
to 15 years.
c) Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrogen being dominant in share by volume, formation of nitrous oxide

(N2O) also known as laughing gas is one of the naturally occurring
greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This is 200 times more
powerful GHG than a unit of CO2 in terms of global warming potential
16 calculated over a period of 100 years. In recent past, its concentration has
increased from 275ppb to 320ppb. Ocean and wet forest soils (9 Tg/year) are Atmosphere and
two predominant natural sources of nitrous oxide emission followed by Climate
anthropogenic i.e., deforestation and nitrogenous fertilizer (6Tg/year) to

atmosphere. Nitrous oxide has an absorption band at 7.8µm and 8.6 µm.
d) Halocarbons (CFCs)
Halocarbons are the substances responsible for the hole in the ozone layer.
Though they have been heavily regulated, they are still responsible for some
amount of global warming. Halocarbons are mostly man-made gases
consisting of both carbon and at least one of the halogens (fluorine, chlorine,
iodine, and bromine). The majority of them fall into the category of
Chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs. It is carbon-to-fluorine bonds in halocarbons
that oscillate and hence absorb at 9µm. It has ability to destroy stratospheric
ozone, but they are also very strong greenhouse gases. On average, they are
thousands of times more efficient at warming than CO2. Fortunately, their
concentrations are very small, so their powerful greenhouse effect is limited.
Their atmospheric lifespan can range from 1 to 50,000 years. The sources
include refrigerants and propellants. Most of these gases have been highly
regulated by the Montreal Protocol (1989) and the vast majority of them are
decreasing. Though emissions of CFC-12 have almost stopped, it is such a
long-lived gas that it is still responsible for some global warming as well as
the ozone hole.
Table1.3: Few examples of Halocarbons with their atmospheric lifetime

(years)
Formula Designation Atmospheric

Lifetime (Years)
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
CFCl3 CFC-11 50
CF2Cl2 CFC-12 102
CF2ClCFCl2 CFC113 85
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs) CHFC-22 12.1
CHF2Cl
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
CF3CH2F HFC134a 14.6
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
C2F6 Perfluoroethane 10,000
CF4 Tetrafluoromethane 50,000
Halons
CF3Br H-1301 65
Others
CH3Br Methyl bromide 0.7
CCl4 Carbon 26
tetrachloride
17
Introduction to
Global Climate You might know that CFCs are banned now, but do you know why? It is
Change because CFCs are depleting stratospheric ozone. It is the photolysis process
by which chlorine gets freed and it is the chlorine that destroys stratospheric
ozone.Molina and Rowland, 1974 were the first who has hypothesized that
CFCs are posing threat to the ozone layer.
e) Ozone (O3)
Ozone (O3) present in small quantity and not uniformly distributed and
highest concentration is around 10ppm found in stratosphere at a height 20-
25km. It has a strong absorption band at 9 µm. It acts as a UV-light filter at
that height by strongly absorbing UV in the region 220-330nm and hence
only small fraction of UV reaches the ground. O3 in the troposphere is
formed by photochemical reaction that accomplishes in the presence of short-
lived precursor gases like NOx, NMHCs and CO. Tropospheric ozone is
responsible for the formation of photochemical smog.
Formation of tropospheric ozone
O2 + hυ (242nm) → O + O
O + O2 +M (N2 or O2) → O3 + M
Where, M is the 3rd body which absorbs the excess energy emitted by the
above reaction and hence stabilizes the O3 molecule.
1.3.3.2 Aerosols
Aerosols are defined as microscopic liquid or solid particles of less than 10
µm diameter, dispersed in the atmosphere. Aerosols are non-uniform in shape
and size so equivalent aerodynamic diameter determined by comparing them
with perfect spheres having same settling velocity. Aerosols come from
volcanoes, dust storms, fires, vegetation, sea spray, burning of fossil fuels
and land use. Aerosols live only for days to weeks in comparison to other
GHGs in the troposphere.
Aerosols are more complicated than the typical greenhouse gas. It can do
both the cooling and heating of the atmosphere. They affect the Earth’s
energy balance in three ways: by enhancing albedo i.e., by reflecting back the
incoming solar radiation, by providing cloud condensation nuclei and by
more absorption of incoming solar radiation. Sulphate aerosols and sea spray
increases albedo and hence causes cooling. Black carbon (BC) and dark
sootenhances absorption of incoming solar radiation and its deposition over
snow-covered area changes the albedo as well. So, BC contributes to overall
warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by these two processes. BC being darker
in colour can absorb insolation 3-times to that of sulphate aerosols which are
lighter in colour and reflects light.
Aerosols having hydrophilic property support the growth of cloud droplets.

Abundance of aerosols is inversely proportional to the formation of cloud
18
droplets. Sulphate aerosols being light reflecting do not produce much Atmosphere and
precipitation. Silver iodide is used as cloud seeding which helps clouds to Climate
form droplets and causes increased rainfall.
Check Your Progress 1
Note: i) Use the space given below for your answers.
ii) Check your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
1) What do you know about the vertical structure of the atmosphere?
……………………………………………………………………………
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1.4 SOLAR RADIATION

Solar radiation is radiant energy emitted by the sun from a nuclear fusion
(hydrogen into helium) reaction that creates electromagnetic energy. This
indicates the surface temperature of Sun as about 5800 K. Sun emits not only
in visible range but also UV-rays, infrared ray, X-rays, and even radio waves.
Out of these, about half of the radiation is in the visible range only. The other
half is mostly in the near-infrared part, with some in the ultraviolet part of the
spectrum. UV-rays range from 0.1 to 0.4 µm., visible (VIBGYOR) ranges
from 0.4-0.7 µm and infrared ray varies from 0.7 µm -1mm.
The direct solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere, ionosphere varies by
about 6.9% during a year. It is 1.412 kW/m² in early January whereas
1.321 kW/m² in early July because the distance between Earth and the Sun
varies.
Solar irradiance is measured by satellites above Earth's atmosphere, and is

then adjusted using the inverse square law to infer the magnitude of solar
irradiance at one Astronomical Unit (AU) to evaluate the solar constant.
Roughly, one astronomical unit (AU) represents the mean distance between
the Earth and Sun. An AU is approximately 150 million km (93 million
miles).The diameter of the Sun is about 1382400 km. The mass of Sun is
about 332000 times more than the Earth. The angular diameter of the Earth as
seen from the Sun is about 1/11,700 radians, meaning the solid angle of the
Earth as seen from the Sun is about 1/175,000,000 of a steradian. Thus, the
Sun emits about 2.2 billion times the amount of radiation that is caught by
Earth, which is about 3.846×1026 watts.
19
Introduction to
Global Climate 1.4.1 Global Energy Budget
Change
a) Energy received by Earth
The earth received only a small fraction of the energy radiated by the Sun.
But this becomes the sole source of energy to sustain biological processes on
the Earth. Apart from sustaining biological processes, this energy is
potentially harvested as solar energy. The annual average radiative solar flux,
energy received per unit area of the earth at the top of the Earth's atmosphere
(=1360W/m2) is also referred to as the Solar Constant. The annual average
radiative solar flux is moreover constant,increasing by only 0.2% at the peak
of each 11-year solar cycle. Sunspots block out the light and reduce the
emission by a few tenths of a %, but bright spots, called plages, that are
connected with solar activity which are longer lived, so their overall
brightness compensates for the darkness of the sunspots. Moreover, as the
Sun burns up its hydrogen, the solar constant increases by about 10 % every
billion (109) years. In addition, Milankovitch cycles affect the solar irradiance
and amount of solar energy received on the earth’s surface.
Table 1.3: Important facts about the Earth-Sun System
Facts Units
Distance between Earth and Sun 150x 106 km
(Astronomical Unit, AU)
The annual average radiative solar flux 1360 W/m2
(Solar Constant)
The mass of Sun (Msun) About 332000 times to that of
mass of the Earth (MEarth)
Perihelion 147x106 km
Aphelion 152x106 km
The axis of rotation of the Earth is tilted 23.5 degrees
at an angle
Solar cycle 11-years
Periodicity of burning of hydrogen by the billion (109) years
Sun
What are the factors that affect amount of energy transferred from the Sun to
Earth?
Angle of incidence, duration of sunshine, solar constant, distance between the
earth and sun etc. Let’s discuss more about it.
i) Effect of elliptical shape of Earth-Sun orbit
The radiation at the top of the atmosphere varies by about 3.5% over the
year, as the Earth spins around the Sun. This is because the Earth's orbit is
not circular but elliptical, with the Sun located in one of the foci of the
ellipse. The Earth is closer to the sun at one time of year (called perihelion)
20 than at the "opposite" time (called aphelion). In Greek, "helios" mean Sun,
"peri" means near, and "apo" means away from.The distance between the Atmosphere and
Earth and Sun will be 147x106 km at perihelion and 152x106 km on 4th July Climate
called aphelion.
Fig. 1.3:Position and path of Earth-Sun system
ii) Effect of Earth's spherical shape
The Earth would have received uniform amount of energy equal to solar
constant (1360 W/m2) provided its shape would have been a disc. But the
Earth is a sphere and hence the part closest to the sun, where the rays of
sunlight are perpendicular to the ground receives maximum energy whereas
farthest point did not receive significant part of it at all.
iii) The tilt of the Earth's axis and the seasons
The axis of rotation of the Earth is tilted at an angle of 23.5 degrees away
from vertical, perpendicular to the plane of Earth’s orbit around the sun.The
tilt of the earth's axis is important, in that it governs the warming strength of
the Sun's energy. The tilt of the surface of the Earth causes light to be spread
across a greater area of land, called the cosine projection effect.
If the axis of Earth was 900 to the plane of its orbit (and the direction of
incoming solar radiation), then the radiative energy flux (Irradiance) would
drop as the cosine of latitude as we move from equator towards the pole.
However, the Earth axis tilts at an angle of 23.5° with respect to its plane of
orbit, pointing towards a fixed point in space as it moves around the sun. As
a result of tilt of 23.5° with respect to its plane of orbit, earth’s rotation and
axial revolution, etc., seasonal changes occur. Days and nights are of 12
hours at the equator. Since, mid-day Sun is over head on 21st September
(autumnal equinox) and 21st March (vernal equinox) and on these days across
the earth, days and nights are equal. On both types of equinoxes insolation
received is highest at the equator. Starting from 22nd December until 21st June
21
Introduction to
Global Climate day length increases in the northern hemisphere whereas opposite happens in
Change the southern part of the Earth.
Once a year, on the Summer Solstice (on or about the 21st of June), the North
Pole points directly towards the Sun and the South Pole is entirely hidden
from the incoming radiation. Half a year from that day, on the Winter
Solstice (on or about the 21st of December) the North Pole points away from
the Sun and does not receive any sunlight while the South Pole receives 24
hours of continuous sunlight.
During Solstices, incoming radiation is perpendicular to the Earth surface on

either the latitude of Cancer or the latitude of Capricorn, 23.5° north or south
of the equator, depending on whether it is summer or winter in the Northern
Hemisphere, respectively. During the spring and fall (on the Equinox days,
the 21st of March and 23rd of September) the Earth's axis tilts in parallel to
the Sun and both Polar Regions get the same amount of light. At that time the
radiation is largest at the true equator. Averaged over a full 24-hour period,
the amount of incoming radiation varies with latitude and season. At the
poles, during solstice, the earth is either exposed to sunlight over the entire
(24-hours) day or is completely hidden from the Sun throughout the entire
day. This is why the poles get no incoming radiation during their respective
winter or more than the maximum radiation at the equator during their
respective summer.
b) Factors affecting amount of energy flux received at the Earth’s

surface.
The Earth receives a total amount of radiation determined by its cross section
(π·RE²), but as it rotates this energy is distributed across the entire surface
area (4·π·RE²). We already discussed how, the angle at which the rays strike
impacts the amount of energy received and that at any one moment half the
planet does not receive any solar radiation, is one-fourth the solar constant
(about 340 W/m²). The amount reaching the Earth's surface (as insolation) is
further reduced by atmospheric attenuation, which varies. At any given
moment, the amount of solar radiation received at a location on the Earth's
surface depends on the state of the atmosphere, the location's latitude, and the
time of day.
1) The Earth's albedo
The Earth's surface reflects (that is, returns the radiation back to space in
more or less the same spectrum) part of the solar energy. This is what makes
the part of the Earth lit by the sun visible from space in the same way that the
moon and the other members of the solar system are visible to us, despite
their lack of an inner source of visible radiation.
The reflectivity of a planet is referred to as the albedo and is expressed as a

fraction. The albedo for the Earth as an entity, also called as the planetary
22 albedo is 0.30. This fraction of incoming radiation is reflected back into
space. The other 0.7 part of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Atmosphere and
Earth. The albedo of Earth depends on the geographical location, surface Climate
properties, and the weather.
2) Effective temperature (Te)
By absorbing the incoming solar radiation, the Earth warms up, like a black
body and its temperature rises. If the Earth would have had no atmosphere or
ocean, as is the case for example on the moon, it would get very warm on the
sunlit face of the planet and much colder than we experience presently, on the
dark side (the little warmth on the dark side would come from the limited
amount of heat stored in the ground from the previous daytime - this is, to
some extent, what we experience in a cloud-free, land locked desert climate).
c) A Simple Global Temperature Model
All heated objects must emit electromagnetic radiation, particularly so if they

are surrounded by empty space. This radiation is referred to as outgoing
radiation. As long as the incoming radiative flux is larger than the outgoing,
the radiated object will continue to warm, and its temperature will continue to
increase. This in turn will result in an increase in the outgoing radiation
(according to the Stefan-Boltzman law, the outgoing radiation increases
faster than the temperature).
At some point the object will emit as much radiation as the amount of
incoming radiation and a radiative equilibrium will be attained. Using what
we have learned about radiative heat transfer and some geometric calculation
we can calculate the equilibrium temperature of an object if we know the
amount of incoming energy.
Here is how we do that in the case of the Earth rotating around the Sun:
First let us denote the solar radiative flux at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere
by So (for solar constant) and the albedo of the Earth by “a”.
Rate of incoming solar radiation at the Earth = SπR2 (watts).
Where,
S= the Solar Constant (1370W/m2)
R= the Radius of the Earth (m)
Then let us figure out the total amount of radiation absorbed by the planet.
The Earth is spherical and its surface tilts with respect to the incoming
radiation, the amount distributed over the sphere is equal the amount that
would be collected on the Earth’s surface, a disk (with the same radius as the
sphere), placed perpendicular to the sunlight.
If the Earth’s radius is R, the area of that disk is πR2.
Thus: 23
Introduction to
Global Climate Heat reflected by planet Earth= πR2Soa
Change
Where, a= the albedo of the Earth (=0.31)
Heat absorbed by planet Earth= (1 - a) πR2So
The total heat radiated from the planet is equal to the energy flux implied by
its temperature, Te(from the Stefan-Boltzman law) times the entire surface
(spherical) of the planet.
Heat radiated from planet = (4πR2) σTe4
Where,
4πR2= Area of the Earth
σ =Stefan-Boltzman constant= 5.6 × 10-8 W/m2-K4
Te= Earth’s “effective” blackbody temperature (Kelvin)
In radiative balance assuming steady-state conditions, i.e., Earth’s

temperature is not changing with time, we thus have:
(4πR2) σTe4 = (1 - a) πR2So
Solving this equation for temperature we obtain:
Te = [(1-a)So / 4σ] 1/4
We have added a subscript “e” to the temperature to emphasize that this

would be the temperature at the surface of the Earth if it had no atmosphere.
It is referred to as the effective temperature of the Earth.
According to this calculation, the effective temperature of Earth is about 255

K (or -18 °C). But, the Earths average surface temperature is about 288K
(150C). So, we need to know the reason behind factors that has not made our
Earth so cold (-18 °C) but liveable (150C).
d) The Green House Effect
The effective temperature of Earth is much lower than what we experience.

Averaged over all seasons and the entire Earth, the surface temperature of our
planet is about 288 K (or 15°C). This difference is the effect of the heat
absorbing components of our atmosphere. This effect is known as
the greenhouse effect, referring to the farming practice of warming garden
plots by covering them with a glass (or plastic) enclosure.
Here is how the greenhouse effect works: The Earth's atmosphere contains
many trace gases and particulates. Major atmospheric components (nitrogen
and oxygen) absorb insignificantly whereas trace components are effective
absorbers. Particularly effective is water vapor, which absorb effectively in
the IR wavelength range.
24
Because the atmosphere is almost transparent to sunlight all that is absorbed Atmosphere and
at the surface results in warming and the emission of IR radiation; this Climate
radiation cannot freely escape into space because of absorption in the

atmosphere by trace gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2).
These absorbing gases and their surrounding air warm up and so emitting
radiation towards the Earth's surface, as well as upward, towards space. This
effectively traps part of the IR radiation between ground and the lower 10 km
of the atmosphere. This reduction in the efficiency of the Earth to lose heat
causes the surface temperature to rise above the effective temperature
calculated above (Te) until finally, enough heat is able to escape to space to
balance the incoming solar radiation. The effect is analogous to that of a
blanket that traps the body heat preventing it from escaping into the room and
thus keeps us warm in colder nights.
All that the IR absorbing gases do is make it more difficult for heat to escape,
they don't (and can't) stop the heat output, because half of their emission is
directed upward towards space. The greenhouse effect forced the planet to
raise its surface temperature until the amount of heat radiated from the top of
the absorbing layer is equal to the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere.
It is at the top of the absorbing layer that the effective temperature is reached,
while down at the surface of the Earth it is much warmer.
e) Global Energy budget
The balance between the amount of insolation received (short wave radiation)
from the Sun and the outgoing radiation (longwave radiation) is known as
Earth’s energy balance. Longwave radiation is usually defined as
outgoing infrared energy leaving the planet.
In spite of the enormous transfer of energy into and from the Earth, it
maintains a relatively constant temperature because, as a whole, there is little
net gain or loss: Earth emits via atmospheric and terrestrial radiation (shifted
to longer electromagnetic wavelengths) to space about the same amount of
energy as it receives via insolation (all forms of electromagnetic radiation).
Fig. 1.2:Earth’s energy budget (Source:

https://ag.tennessee.edu/solar/Pages/What%20Is%20Solar%20Energy/Earth-Energy-
Budget.aspx) 25
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
To quantify Earth's heat budget or heat balance, let the insolation received at
the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (100 units = about 1,360W/m2 facing
the sun), as shown in the Fig.1.2.
Reflectivity –About 35 units of insolation is reflected back to space.
• Reflection by clouds = 27units

• Reflection by snow and ice-covered areas= 2 units
• Reflection by other parts of the atmosphere= 6 units
Absorption –About 65 units of insolation is absorbed by the atmosphere and

Earth’s surface.
• Within the atmosphere =14 units

• Earth’s surface= 51 units
Earth’s surface - 51 units,
• Radiated back directly to space= 17 units,

• Directly absorbed by the atmosphere = 34 units (19 through latent heat of
condensation, 9 through convection and turbulence, and 6 directly
absorbed).
Total units absorbed by the atmosphere= 48 units (34 units from terrestrial
radiation and 14 from insolation) are finally radiated back to space.
Net energy radiated back= 65 units (17 from the ground and 48 from the
atmosphere) equals to the 65 units absorbed from the sun.
So, net gain of energy by the Earth ideally becomes zero.
a) Incoming radiant energy
The total amount of energy received per second at the top of Earth's
atmosphere is measured in watts and is given by the solar constant
(1370W/m2) times the cross-sectional area of the Earth corresponded to the
radiation.
• Cross-sectional area of Earth irradiated by Sun = πr2

• Surface area of Earth = 4πr2
Fraction of solar constant received by Earth = πr2/4πr2 = 1/4 x 1370 W/m2 =

342 W/m2
Here comes the calculation of about 342 W/m² of solar radiation received by
the Earth:
• Clouds reflect back an average of ~78 W/m² into space and the
atmosphere
26
• Surface of the Earth reflects about 24 W/m² Atmosphere and
Climate
• Net solar energy input to the Earth's energy budget becomes ~235 W/m²
Hence, the Earth net albedo is 0.306.
b) Earth's internal heat and other small effects
The geothermal heat flux from the Earth's interior is estimated to be

47 terawatts and split approximately equally between radiogenic heat and
heat leftover from the Earth's formation. This comes to 0.087 W/m2, which
represents only 0.027% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface. Human
production of energy is even lower, at an estimated 18 TW.
1.5 WEATHER AND CLIMATE

Weather is the atmospheric event experienced on day-to-day basis. Factors
that control the weather are temperature, air-pressure, precipitation, wind
speed and direction, humidity, length and intensity of sunshine, cloudiness,
dust, chemistry of atmosphere, etc. Troposphere experiences most of the
weather phenomena. Example: Thunder, rain, heat.Weather varies from one
place to other and changes over minutes, hours, days, and weeks. Weather in
morning time can be different from that of afternoon and so.
Climate is generally defined as the mean of the weather variables over an

area for three decades or more years. The three-decade averages of weather
observations are also called as “Climate Normal”. Factors that control the
climate is same to that of weather. Climate events like El Niño happen over
several years, with larger fluctuations happening over decades. And, even
larger climate change happens over hundreds and thousands of years. Climate
can be classified further into global, regional and local level depending upon
what span in terms of geographical area one covers while taking mean of
three-decadal climate-variables.
1.5.1 Climate Variables

There are more than 50 essential climate variables identified by the Global
Climate Observing System for worldwide monitoring. In brief, temperature,
air-pressure, precipitation, wind speed and direction, humidity, length and
intensity of sunshine, cloudiness, dust etc. are important variables that
decides climate of a place. Let’s discuss in brief about these variables. Air
temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, air pressure, wind and water
vapour are called surface air variables whereas cloud properties correspond to
upper air variables.
A) Surface Air Variables
a) Air Temperature
Surface air temperature is the temperature of the air at a height of around two
meters above the Earth’s surface. It is measured by a “thermometer” which is 27
Introduction to
Global Climate shielded from direct solar radiation. The most commonly used thermometer
Change is the liquid-in-glass thermometer. More precise thermometers measure air
temperature by checking how much electricity can pass through a sample of
pure metal. Mesopause has the coldest temperatures whereas the warmest
temperatures can be noticed in the thermosphere, which receives very
strong ionizing radiation at the level of the Van Allen radiation belt.
b) Precipitation
Precipitation is defined as the amount of water received either in liquid or

solid form onto the Earth's surface. It can be in the form of rain, drizzle,
snow, ice, freezing rain, or hail. The most commonly used instrument to
measure rainfall is “Rain gauge”. A rain gauge is an open-at-the-top
container which is calibrated to measure the depth of water (liquid)
deposited. In India, the depth of precipitation is reported in centimetre (cm).
Satellite instruments are also used to estimate amount of precipitation.
c) Solar Radiation
Solar radiation is energy emitted from the sun. Solar radiation is the main
source of energy for the Earth-Atmosphere system. On the ground, an
instrument called a “Solar pyranometer” measures the amount of incoming
solar radiation that reaches Earth.
d) Air Pressure
Air pressure is the weight (mg)-per-unit area of the column of air above it.
Since, air consists of various gaseous molecules which is always moving in
random direction so air pressure remains the same in all directions.
Barometers are used to measure it. The most common type of barometer is a
sealed flexible container of air. When the air pressure outside the container
changes, the container either contracts or expands in reciprocity. This change
gets noted by a needle or digital readout. These values are expressed in
millibars or in Pascal (Pa). A millibar is a unit of pressure commonly used in
aviation and meteorology.
1 millibar = 100 Newtons per square meter (100 N/m2).
1 pascal = 1 newton per square metre, (1 N/m2)
One thousand millibars is the average pressure at sea level. Changes in

atmospheric pressure can indicate a change in weather.
e) Wind speed and direction
Wind is air in horizontal motion relative to the Earth's surface. It is described

in terms of both speed and direction of motion. Wind speed gets measured by
“Anemometers” whereas wind direction by “wind vanes”. Wind moves from
a high pressure zone to low-pressure. Wind directions refer to where the wind
is coming from; for example, a Westerly wind gets started from the west and
28
blowing towards the East. Wind direction is measured in degrees clockwise Atmosphere and
from north. Consequently, a wind blowing from the north has a wind Climate
direction of 0° (360°); a wind blowing from the east has a wind direction of
90°; a wind blowing from the south has a wind direction of 180°; and a wind
blowing from the west has a wind direction of 270°. In general, wind
directions are measured in units from 0° to 360°.
f) Water Vapour
Water vapour is water present in the atmosphere in the gaseous form. Water
vapour is the ingredient from which cloud gets formed. It cannot be seen
through our naked eyes but it absorbs and emits infrared radiation, which
traps insolation near Earth's surface.
Absolute humidity is the measure of the amount of water vapor in air.

Relative humidity tells how much water vapor is in the air relative to the
amount it has the potential to hold at a given temperature and pressure. The
instrument used to measure water vapor content in the air is called a
hygrometer. The simplest type of hygrometer is made from human hair,
which swells and lengthens as it absorbs water vapor from the air.
B) Upper Air Variables
a) Cloud Properties
A cloud is an aerosol consisting of a visible mass of minute liquid droplets,

frozen crystals, or other suspended particles in the Earth’s atmosphere. As
the air is cooled to its dew point and becomes saturated, water vapour gets
condensed and cloud drops formed. The condensation occurs on cloud
condensation nuclei such as salt or dust particles that are of 0.2 µm which
aloft by normal circulation of the air.The type of clouds in the sky is an
indicator of the atmospheric processes occurring where they formed. Cloud
properties include ice crystal size and type, temperature, and thickness. On
the basis of height of origin, clouds can be classified into high-level (5-13
km), cirrocumulus, cirrus, and cirrostratus., mid-level (2-7 km), altocumulus,
altostratus, and nimbostratus and low-level (0-2 km), stratus, cumulus,
cumulonimbus, and stratocumulus. Stratocumulus clouds are often associated
with precipitation as they are fluffy and closer to the ground.
Other important upper air variables are Earth Radiation Budget, lightning,
temperature (upper-air), water vapour (upper air), wind speed and direction
(upper-air). Earth’s radiation budget, temperature profile has already been
discussed in this Unit.
b) Atmospheric Composition
Atmospheric composition plays an important role as climate variables.

Aerosols not only changes albedo but also insolation as well as play
important role in cloud condensing nuclei. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) present
in troposphere and stratosphere are another group that plays an important role 29
Introduction to
Global Climate deciding local to global climate. Ozone (O3) column in troposphere and upper
Change strato-and mesosphere has its role to play. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA)
is particulate matter composed of compounds formed from the atmospheric
transformation of organic species, accounts for a substantial fraction of
tropospheric aerosol which affects the global radiation budget.
1.5.2 Climate Classification

Climate classification systems are methods of classifying the world's
climates. It has close correlation with a biome type. There are many ways by
which geographers attempted to divide the biome taking into account
temperature and precipitation mean. Let us discuss about three important
types of climate classifications.
A) The Köppen Climate Classification System
The Köppen system is the most widely and popularly used system for
categorizing the world's climates. Its types are based on the annual and
monthly averages of temperature and precipitation. It recognizes five
major climatic types; each type is designated by a capital letter from A-E and
H.
Table1.5 The Köppen Climate Classification depicting symbol

corresponding to climate type
Symbol Climate types

A Tropical Wet Climates
B Dry Climates (both desert and semi‐desert)
C Mesothermal (mid‐latitude or subtropical
seasonal)
D Microthermal (humid continental)
E Polar
H Highlands
B) The Thornthwaite Climate Classification System
This classification was devised in 1931 and revised in 1948 by C.

W. Thornthwaite, the American climatologist. A climate was divided into
groups according to the vegetation characteristic. The type of occurrence of
vegetation being determined by precipitation effectiveness (P/E), where P is
the total monthly precipitation, and E is the total monthly evaporation.
The sum of the monthly P/E values gives the P/E index, which is used to
define five humidity provinces, with associated vegetation.
30
Table 1.6: The Thornthwaite Climate Classification showing P/E index, Atmosphere and
Climate
climate type and vegetation type
P/E index Climate type Vegetation type

>127 Wet Rain forest
64–127 Humid Forest
32–63 Subhumid Grassland
16–31 Semi-arid Steppe
< 16 Desert Thorny plants
In 1948 the system was modified to incorporate a moisture index, which

relates the water demand by plants to the available precipitation, by means of
an index of potential evapotranspiration (PE), calculated from measurements
of air temperature and day length.
C) The Trewartha Climate Classification
It is a climate classification system first published by American geographer

Glenn Thomas Trewartha in 1966. It is a modified version of the Köppen
system which covered shortfall of that system. It gives much more realistic
classification of the global climate.
He has classified world climates into seven climatic groups based upon
temperature criteria, namely A, C, D, E, F and H, and the seventh one as B,
the basis of precipitation.
1.5.3 Climate Change and Climate Variability

Climate change can be referred to as any change in climate over time,
ascribed mainly to natural variability. However, because of changes in the
earth’s climate since the pre-industrial era it is also attributable to human
activities. Whereas, climate variability can be defined as variations in the
mean state of the climatic parameters of a region or place. Annual rainfall
received at aparticular place may be different. Some years may register
scanty rainfall, average or above average rainfall. It means the average
rainfall of a place may register as 1000mm, but this does not guarantee that
1000mm rainfall will be received every year. One can expect to receive from
a range (500mm to 1500mm) and so the deviation from the annual mean can
be calculated. Deviation from mean value (mm) can be referred as climate
variability of a place at particular point of time. Climate variability is
measured by these deviations, which are usually called as
anomalies. Variability may be registered due to internal or external factors.
An internal factor corresponds to processes within the climate system
whereas external variability attributes to external factors may be natural or
man-made.
31
Introduction to
Global Climate Check Your Progress 2
Change
1) What is the difference between weather and climate?
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2) What is the difference between climate change and climate variability?
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1.6 LET US SUM UP

Earth came to existence about 4.5 billion years ago. Subsequently, a blanket
of gases called atmosphere was formed. To understand the thermal
stratification of the atmosphere, the atmosphere is divided into layers namely
troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and exosphere.
The troposphere is the layer nearest to Earth's surface. The height of the
troposphere varies with location, being higher over warmer areas and lower
over colder areas. This layer has the highest density in comparison to the rest
and contains 80% of the atmospheric mass. Due to the vertical movement of
air mass, air pollution gets diluted from the point of its origin and settles to
the ground as a result of precipitation. All weather phenomena occur in this
layer. The Stratosphere is the layer next to the troposphere. This layer has
increasing temperature trend with height and air mass becomes stable. O3 in
the stratosphere absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun that causes heating
of air and so temperature increases with height. The layer next to stratosphere
is called mesosphere. The temperature in this layer decreases with height like
troposphere. The thermosphere is the uppermost layer of the atmosphere. In
this layer the temperature increases with height because it is being directly
heated by the sun. Besides, the thermal stratification of earth’s atmosphere,
we have discussed the composition of the atmosphere including the
greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases that absorb long-wave
radiation from the earth and emit it back to the atmosphere. CO2, CH4, N2O,
water vapour, Black carbon (BC), etc., are responsible for warming of the
Earth. Further, in this unit, we have discussed global energy budget including
32
the factors influencing the amount of energy flux received on earth surface. Atmosphere and
Weather, climate and climate variables are also discussed in this unit. Climate
1.7 KEY WORDS

Climate: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average
weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean
and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from
months to thousands or millions of years.
Climate System: The climate system is the highly complex system

consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the
cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between
them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own
internal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic
eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic forcings such as the changing
composition of the atmosphere and land use change.
Atmosphere: The gaseous envelope surrounding the earth. The dry

atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio)
and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), and a number of trace gases, such
as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and radiatively active
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and ozone.
Troposphere: The lowest part of the atmosphere, from the surface to about
10 km in altitude at mid-latitudes (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes to 16
km in the tropics on average), where clouds and weather phenomena occur.
In the troposphere, temperatures generally decrease with height.
Stratosphere: The highly stratified region of the atmosphere above the

troposphere extending from about 10 km (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes
to 16 km in the tropics on average) to about 50 km altitude.
Climate Change: Climate change refers to a change in the state of the

climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the
mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural
internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar
cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the
composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
Climate Variability: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state

and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes,
etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of
individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal
processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in
natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).
33
Introduction to
Global Climate 1.8 SUGGESTED FURTHER READING/
Change
REFERENCES
IPCC, (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K.
Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and
P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
IPCC, (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An
IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-
industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the
context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte,
V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W.
Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y.
Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T.
Waterfield (eds.)]. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland,
32 pp.
IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events
and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V.
Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J.
Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A
Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and
New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.
IPCC, 2013: Annex III: Glossary [Planton, S. (ed.)]. In: Climate Change
2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A.
Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Agard, J., E.L.F. Schipper, J. Birkmann, M.
Campos, C. Dubeux, Y. Nojiri, L. Olsson, B. Osman-Elasha, M. Pelling, M.J.
Prather, M.G. Rivera-Ferre, O.C. Ruppel, A. Sallenger, K.R. Smith, A.L. St.
Clair, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, and T.E. Bilir (eds.)]. In: Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional
Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field,
D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L.
Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S.
MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp.
1757-1776.
Fletcher C (2018) Climate Change: What the science tells us. 2nd
34 Edition.John Wiley & Sons. Pp.336. ISBN: 978-1-118-79306-0
Dessler A (2016) Introduction to Modern Climate Change. 2nd Atmosphere and
Edition.Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-521-17315-5 Climate
Houghton JT (2015) Global Warming: The complete briefing. 5th

Edition.Cambridge University Press. Pp.456. ISBN: 978-0-521-70916.
Burroughs WJ (2007) Climate Change: A multidisciplinary approach. 2nd

Edition.Cambridge University Press. Pp.390. ISBN: 978-0-521-69033-1
Barry RG and Chorley RJ.(2010). Atmosphere, weather and climate.8th

Edition. Routledge, New York. pp.421.
Web Links
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
https://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change/glossary
https://health2016.globalchange.gov/glossary-and-acronyms
1.9 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

1) The vertical structure of the atmosphere includes different layers with

different atmospheric characteristics particularly with respect to the
climate variables like temperature and density. The atmospheric column
can be studied by dividing it into different layers based on the
temperature characteristics. The vertical structure of the atmosphere is
divided into layers namely troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere,
thermosphere and exosphere.
The lowermost layer of the atmosphere is called as troposphere. The

average height of the troposphere is about 13 km, varying from 18 km at
the equator and 8 km at the poles. This layer contains about 75 per cent
of the mass of the atmosphere. The atmospheric temperature in this layer
decreases at the rate of 1ºC for every 165m of height. The atmosphere is
heated due to the turbulent heat transfer from the earth’s surface. The
zone between the troposphere and the stratosphere is called as the
tropopause, wherein the air temperature is about minus 45ºC over the
poles. The tropopause is an inversion level. The air temperature in the
tropopause is nearly constant.
The stratosphere extends up to a height of 50 km. It accounts for about

10 percent of the total molecular mass of the atmosphere. It contains
most of the total atmospheric ozone and the maximum temperature,
nevertheless, occurs at the stratopause, which lies between the
stratosphere and the mesosphere. Ozonosphere absorbs harmful ultra-
35
Introduction to
Global Climate violet radiation from the Sun and shields life on the earth from intense
Change and harmful forms of energy from the Sun. The occurrence of the polar
stratospheric clouds in the circumpolar low-pressure vortex at the poles
in the stratosphere are important with respect to the depletion of
stratospheric ozone.
The mesosphere layer extends above the stratosphere and the average
temperature in this layer decreases with height. Lowest temperature of
minus 130 ºC is observed at a height of 90 km above the earth surface.
The pressure of the air in the mesosphere layer is about 0.01mb at 90 km.
Just above 80 km, average air temperature start decreasing due to the
presence of molecular oxygen and ozone, which absorbs heat. This zone
is called mesopause.
The thermosphere layer which extends above the mesopause, is

predominantly composed of nitrogen, molecular oxygen and atomic
oxygen. The average air temperature rises with height in this layer,
mainly due to the absorption of ultra-violet radiation by the molecular
oxygen and atomic oxygen. Above 100 km from the earth’s surface, the
short-wave radiation from the Sun causes ionization. Exosphere lies
between 500 km and 750 km. This layer is predominantly composed of
oxygen, hydrogen and helium atoms.
1) Weather and climate are different from the perspective of space and
time.
• Weather involves day to day conditions and it reflects the state of

atmosphere on a small area.
• Climate involves averages over a long period of time. It gives the
conditions prevalent in that area.
2) Climate change is referred to as a “change in the state of the climate that

can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or
longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or
external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic
eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or in land use”. Climate variability refers to variations in the
mean state and other statistics of the climate on all spatial and temporal
scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due
to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal
variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing
(external variability).
36
UNIT 2 PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATE Atmosphere and
Climate
CHANGE
Structure
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Radiation Balance and Radiative Forcing
2.4 Climate Forcing Mechanism: External and Internal Forcing
2.4.1 Orbital Variations
2.4.2 Solar Variations
2.4.3 Volcanic Eruptions
2.4.4 Atmospheric Composition

2.5 Role of Greenhouse Gases and Greenhouse Effect
2.6 Global Warming Potential
2.7 Drivers of Climate Change
2.8 Let Us Sum Up
2.9 Key Words
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Climate change refers to significant, long-term changes in the global climate
system. In this vastness of the universe, so far earth is the only planet known
to support, sustain and nourish the life-system. Over time, earth has
developed a climate that nurtures the life-system and the planet is flourished
with whole lot of flora, fauna and human beings. The survival of human
beings is solely dependent on the conducive climate that the earth provides.
This conducive climate needs to be sustained in order to support the human
civilisation. Unfortunately, recent reports suggest that human intervention has
changed this climate system adversely. To quote the IPCC (2013a) report,
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many
of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The
atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have
diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased” (IPCC, 2013a). It pretty much underlines the importance of
studying the phenomena of climate change. In this unit, the focus is on
scientific analysis of the climate change. We’ll first discuss the basic
concepts like radiative forcing, external forcing – solar variability,
greenhouse effect, etc., that are required in order to understand the science of
climate change. Throughout the unit, these concepts will be used to explain
the phenomenon of global climate change. 37
Introduction to
Global Climate 2.2 OBJECTIVES
Change
• define radiative forcing and global warming potential;

• discuss radiation balance; and
• discuss the climate forcing mechanism.
2.3 RADIATION BALANCE AND RADIATIVE

FORCING
Earth continuously receives the radiation (mostly in the form of shortwave)
from
rom the sun, part of these radiation gets reflected back by the atmosphere
(by clouds, aerosols) and part by the earth’s surface. The part of the solar
radiation gets absorbed by the gases of the atmosphere and part by the earth’s
surface. After absorption of the solar radiation by the earth’s surface or the
atmosphere, they reradiate/emit the energy mainly in the form of longwave
radiation. This creates a system of radiation balance for the earth and
atmosphere system, i.e., the total amount of radiation rreceived (incoming
radiation) by the sun is equal to the total amount of radiation reflected and
emitted (outgoing radiation). Fig. 2.1 shows the radiation budget for the earth
+ atmosphere system. Please note that the total incoming solar radiation is
equall to the total outgoing solar radiation (reflection + radiation).
Fig. 2.1 clearly depicts that the incoming solar energy absorbed by the Earth
and its atmosphere is exactly balanced by the outgoing long
long-wave radiation.
If, for some reason, an additional amount of energy is added to the incoming
energy, then the balance will be temporarily upset. Over time, however, the
climate system will adjust to that change either by increasing or decreasing
the surface temperature of Earth until a balance is once agai
again attained.
Fig. 2.1.. Earth’s Energy Budget. (Source: Reproduced from

38 https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/education/class/yuri/erb.html)
Mathematically, we can represent that process as follows. In Fig. 2.2, the Atmosphere and
incoming energygy absorbed, and outgoing energy being radiated, are shown as Climate
they exist at the top of the troposphere

troposphere—that is, at the tropopause. Initially,
the balanced system has energy absorbed equal to energy radiated:
�� = �� ------------- (2.11)
Fig. 2.2 : Balanced radiation system before perturbation
When the system is perturbed by adding radiative forcing, Δ� (� /�� ), to

the incoming absorbed energy, a new equilibrium will eventually be
established so that
(�� ) � �� = (�� )------------ (2.2)
where the deltas (Δ) refer to changes in the quantity in question. Subtracting
(2.2) from
(2.1) gives
�� = �� − �� ----------- (2.3)
Thus, radiative forcing is the difference between the changes in radiation

absorbed by the Earth and the changes in energy radiated back to space where
these changes have been introduced by some agent such as greenhou
greenhouse gases.
Positive radiative forcing means Earth receives more incoming radiation than
it used to receive in earlier radiation balance system which causes warming
of the earth. Conversely, negative radiative forcing means that Earth loses
more energy to space ace than it used to radiate in earlier radiance balance
system, which causes cooling of the earth. The concept of radiative forcing
is one of the central concepts in climate change science because it provides a
common currency for comparing the impacts of changes in individual
greenhouse gases and aerosols, changes in albedo, and changes in the sun’s
radiation. Determining the radiative forcing associated with these has been
one of the most important research areas for the atmospheric scientists.
39
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
Fig. 22.3 : The balanced radiation system after radiative forcing is added
2.4 CLIMATE FORCING MECHANISM:

EXTERNAL FORCING AND INTERNAL
FORCING
External forcing’ is a term used by climate scientists to refer to a forcing
‘External
agent outside th
thee climate system causing a change in the climate system
(IPCC, 2013). Volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and anthropogenic
changes in the atmosphere’s composition and land use are climate forcings.
Orbital forcing is also an external forcing because the insolation changes with
orbital parameters such as eccentricity, tilt, and precession of the equinox.
Internal forcing
‘Internal forcing’’ operates from within the climate system, for example the
change in the global energy balance due to changes in the composition of the
atmosphere.
2.4.1 Orbital Variations

Variations:: There are a number of different changes in the
Earth's orbit around the Sun that have been investigated as possible
external forcings. The overall theory of astronomical causes of
climate variations is known as the Milankovi
Milankovitch theory, and evidence
has been found to support the ideas in the theory. There are three
major variations - the tilt of the Earth's axis, it's precession, and
eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The Milankovitch
Cycles force the changes be between
tween ice age and warmer conditions on
Earth, on time scales of 10,000 to 100,000 years. The last Ice Age
occurred 18,000 years ago.
2.4.2 Solar Variations
Variations:: Variations in the amount of solar energy being
released from the Sun at a given point in time has been cconsidered as
an external forcing factor. However, a connection between the cycles
of output from the Sun and climate cycles has not been firmly
established. The total solar energy received by the Earth, or solar
constant, has only been measured accurately since the advent of the
satellite era. In addition, changes which have been detected over the
past 20 years are small in magnitude (<<1%), potentially too small to
act as a mechanism of climate change. While the change in solar
energy may be greater on lonlonger
ger time scales, this is only a speculative
possibility.
40
2.4.3 Volcanic eruptions:: Volcanic eruptions might also introduce changes Atmosphere and
in the climate system. Fig. 2.4 illustrates part of a fingerprint Climate
assessment of global temperature change at the surface during th

the late
20th century. The naturally forced surface cooling observed during
1982 and 1991 are attributed to the changes introduced after major
volcanic eruptions occurrences [El Chichon (Mexico) eruption in
1982 and Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) eruption in 11991] (Robock,
2000).
Fig. 2.4 : Time series of global and annual

annual-averaged surface temperature change from
1860 to 2010. The figure shows results from two ensemble of climate models driven with
just natural forcings (adapted from IPCC, 2013b).
2.4.4 Atmospheric Composition: The changing composition of the

atmosphere, particularly its greenhouse gas (explained later in the
next section) content, is a well
well-known example of internal climate
forcing. A change in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere
significantly affects the energy balance of the climate system.
It is well known that two gases – nitrogen and oxygen – make up 99 percent
of the volume of clean, dry air of the atmosphere
atmosphere. Although these gases are
the most plentiful components
nents of the atmosphere and are of great significance
to life on Earth, they are of little or no importance in affecting weather
phenomena and the radiation balance of the earth atmosphere system. Even
among the remaining 1 percent of dry air, 0.93 percent is mostly the inert gas
argon which also has no role in radiation balance or weather phenomena.
Among the remaining (0.07%), the gases like CO2, water vapour, O3, trace
gases (CO, methane and others) etc., although present only in tiny quantities
but, particularly
ticularly greenhouse gases, play very significant role in affecting the
weather phenomena and the radiation balance of the earth. Aerosols
(including black carbon) are another important constituent of the atmosphere
that play significant role in radiation balance.
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Carbon dioxide (CO2), although present in only minute amounts [currently

stands at about 412 parts per million (ppm)], is nevertheless a
meteorologically important constituent of air. This is because it is an 41
Introduction to
Global Climate efficient absorber of energy emitted by Earth and thus influences the heating
Change of the atmosphere. Although the proportion of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is relatively uniform, its percentage has been rising steadily for
more than a century [it is about 412 ppm today (2019) while it was only 370
ppm in 2000 (11% increase since 2000) and notably, it was only 280 ppm in
the pre-industrial age, so about 47% increase in CO2 since pre-industrial age
(Buis, 2019)].
Water Vapour
The amount of water vapor in the air varies considerably, from practically
none at all up to about 4 percent by volume. Why is such a small fraction of
the atmosphere so significant? The fact that water vapor is the source of all
clouds and precipitation would be enough to explain its importance.
However, water vapor has other roles too. Like carbon dioxide, it has the
ability to absorb heat given off by Earth, as well as some solar energy. It is
therefore important when we examine the heating of the atmosphere.
Ozone
Another important component of the atmosphere is ozone. It is a form of

oxygen that combines three oxygen atoms into each molecule (O3). There is
very little ozone in the atmosphere. Overall, it represents just 3 out of every
10 million molecules. Moreover, its distribution is not uniform. In the lowest
portion of the atmosphere, ozone represents less than 1 part in 100 million. It
is concentrated well above the surface in a layer called the stratosphere
(stratospheric ozone), between 10 and 50 kilometres. Stratospheric ozone is
very important as it absorbs almost all the harmful UV-B rays coming from
the sun.
Aerosols
Collectively, all solid or liquid particles suspended in air are called aerosols.
Aerosols are most numerous in the lower atmosphere near their primary
source, Earth’s surface. Nevertheless, the upper atmosphere is not free of
them, because some dust is carried to great heights by rising currents of air,
and other particles are contributed by meteorites that disintegrate as they pass
through the atmosphere.
From a meteorological standpoint, these tiny, often invisible particles can be

significant. First, many act as surfaces on which water vapor may condense,
an important function in the formation of clouds and fog. Second, aerosols
can absorb or reflect incoming solar radiation. Thus, when an air-pollution
episode is occurring or when ash fills the sky following a volcanic eruption,
the amount of sunlight reaching Earth’s surface can be measurably reduced.
42
Atmospheric Trace Constituents Atmosphere and
Climate
Atmospheric trace constituents (ATCs) are present only in trace amount and
highly variable in the atmosphere. Nevertheless, they play very significant
role in the atmospheric chemical processes. Virtually every element in the
periodic table is found in the atmosphere; however, when classifying
atmospheric species according to chemical composition, it proves to be
convenient to use a small number of major groupings such as (Seinfeld and
Pandis, 2006)
1) Carbon-containing compounds.
2) Sulfur-containing compounds.
3) Nitrogen-containing compounds.
4) Halogen-containing compounds
Some of the important trace constituents which play significant role as

greenhouse gases are discussed below:
Methane
Methane (CH4) is the most abundant hydrocarbon in the atmosphere. It is the

second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 (IPCC, 2013). In 2011, the
concentration of CH4 was 1803 ppb which exceeded the pre-industrial levels
by about 150% (IPCC, 2013).
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important atmospheric gas that is emitted

predominantly by biological sources in soils and water. Although by
comparison to CO2 and H2O, N2O has a far lower concentration, it is an
extremely influential greenhouse gas. This is a result of its long residence
time and its relatively large energy absorption capacity per molecule. Nitrous
oxide is inert in the troposphere; its major atmospheric sink is
photodissociation in the stratosphere (about 90%) and reaction with excited
oxygen atoms (about 10%). Oxidation of N2O by excited oxygen atoms
yields NO, providing the major input of NO to the stratosphere.
2.5 ROLE OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND

GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The Radiatively active gases that absorb wavelength longer than 4�� are
called greenhouse gases. In other words, greenhouse gases absorb longwave
radiation and allow shortwave radiation to pass. Solar radiation coming from
very high temperature source (i.e., Sun) is dominated by short-wave
radiation (incoming) while Earth being at low temperature emits long-wave
radiation (outgoing). These long-wave radiation emitted from the earth get
absorbed by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and keeps the earth
warm. The phenomenon is known as greenhouse effect.
43
Introduction to
Global Climate How gases ((particularly,
particularly, greenhouse gases) interact with the short
Change wavelength incoming solar radiation and the long wavelength outgoing
radiation emitted by Earth is particularly important in order to explain the
phenomena of greenhouse effect. Fig. 2.5 shows the rad
radiation (radiative flux)
emitted by the sun and the earth at different wavelengths. It clearly depicts
that radiation emitted by sun (solar radiation) is dominated by short
wavelengths while radiation emitted by the earth (terrestrial radiation) is
dominate
dominated by long wavelengths.
Fig. 2.
2.5:: The radiation vs. wavelength for the Sun and Earth (Source:
https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/06/01/the
https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/06/01/the-sun-and--max-planck-agree/)
44
Atmosphere and
Climate
Fig. 2.6 : Top panel shows the radiatio

radiation emitted by the sun and earth at different
wavelengths, the lower panels show the absorption of radiation by different greenhouse
gases (Source: http://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa
http://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/module-2/how-greenhouse-effect-
works.php
works.php)
Fig. 2.6 shows the radiation absorbed by different gases at different

wavelengths. It clearly depicts that for the atmosphere as a whole, none of the
gases are effective absorbers of radiation with wavelengths bebetween 0.3 and
0.7 micrometre. This region of the spectrum corresponds to the visible light
band, which constitutes about 43 percent of the energy radiated by the Sun.
Because the atmosphere is a poor absorber of visible radiation, most of this
energy is transmitted
ansmitted to Earth’s surface. Thus, we say that the atmosphere is
nearly transparent to incoming solar radiation and that direct solar energy is
not an effective “heater” of Earth’s atmosphere.
It can also be seen in Fig. 2.b that the atmosphere is gener

generally a relatively
efficient absorber of longwave (infrared) radiation emitted by Earth. Water
vapor and carbon dioxide are the principal absorbing gases, with water vapor
absorbing about 60 percent of the radiation emitted by Earth’s surface.
Therefore, water
ter vapor, more than any other gas, accounts for the warm 45
Introduction to
Global Climate temperatures of the lower troposphere, where it is most highly concentrated.
Change
Atmospheric Window
Although the atmosphere is an effective absorber of radiation emitted by

Earth’s surface, it is nevertheless quite transparent to the band of radiation
between 8 and 12 micrometres. Please notice in Fig. 2.6 (lower right) that the
gases in the atmosphere (N2, CO2, H2O) absorb minimal energy in these
wavelengths. Because the atmosphere is transparent to radiation between 8
and 12 micrometres, much as window glass is transparent to visible light, this
band is called the atmospheric window. Although other “atmospheric
windows” exist, the one located between 8 and 12 micrometres is the most
significant because it is located where Earth’s radiation is most intense.
By contrast, clouds that are composed of tiny liquid droplets (not water
vapor) are excellent absorbers of the energy in the atmospheric window.
Clouds absorb outgoing radiation and radiate much of this energy back to
Earth’s surface. Thus, clouds serve a purpose similar to window blinds
because they effectively block the atmospheric window and lower the rate at
which Earth’s surface cools. This explains why night-time temperatures
remain higher on cloudy nights than on clear nights.
Lapse Rate
Because the atmosphere is largely transparent to solar (shortwave) radiation

but more absorptive of the longwave radiation emitted by Earth, the
atmosphere is heated from the ground up. This explains the general drop in
temperature with increased altitude in the troposphere. The farther from the
“radiator” (Earth’s surface), the colder it gets. On average, the temperature
drops 6.5°C for each kilometre increase in altitude, a figure known as the
normal lapse rate. The fact that the atmosphere does not acquire the bulk of
its energy directly from the Sun but is heated by Earth’s surface is of utmost
importance to the dynamics of the weather machine.
The Greenhouse Effect
As discussed earlier, cloudless air is largely transparent to incoming

shortwave solar radiation and, hence, transmits it to Earth’s surface. By
contrast, a significant fraction of the long-wave radiation (Infra-red (IR))
emitted by Earth’s land–sea surface is absorbed by water vapor, carbon
dioxide, and other trace gases (Greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere (Fig.
2.7). This energy heats the air and increases the rate at which it radiates
energy, both out to space and back toward Earth’s surface. Without this, the
Earth’s average temperature would be –19°C rather than the current
temperature of 15°C. These absorptive gases in our atmosphere make Earth
habitable for humans and other life forms.
46
Atmosphere and
Climate
Fig. 2.7 : A Simplified representation of Greenhouse effect process
This natural phenomenon was named the greenhouse effect because

greenhouses are heated in a similar manner the glass in a greenhouse allows
shortwave solar radiation to enter and be absorbed by the objects inside.
These objects, in turn, radiate energy but at longer wa wavelengths, to which
glass is nearly opaque. The heat, therefore, is “trapped” in the greenhouse.
Although this analogy is widely used, it has been shown that air inside
greenhouses attains higher temperatures than outside air in part due to the
restricted exchange of warmer air inside and cooler air outside. Nevertheless,
the term “greenhouse effect” is still used to describe atmospheric heating.
ii) Check your answers with those gi

given at the end of the unit.
1) What is the status of water vapour as a greenhouse gas?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) What are the important

ortant greenhouse gases?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
47
Introduction to
Global Climate ……………………………………………………………………………
Change
……………………………………………………………………………
2.6 GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL

The heating rate and its effect by different greenhouse gases are different.
Global warming potential is a dimensionless quantity that helps in comparing
the warming potential of different greenhouse gases.
The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a weighting factor that allows

comparisons to be made between the cumulative global warming impact over
a specified period of time of some greenhouse gas and a simultaneous
emission of an equal mass of CO2.
There are three primary factors that affect GWPs:
i) The first is the radiative forcing associated with the addition to the
atmosphere of a unit mass of each greenhouse gas.
ii) The second is based on estimates of the rate at which that unit mass
injected decays over time.
iii) The third is related to the cumulative radiative forcing that the unit
addition to the atmosphere will have over some period of time into the
future.
Table 2.1 shows the global warming potential of different greenhouse gases.
The synthetic gases CFCs, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) such as HCFC-123,
and SF6 have large GWPs because they absorb in the atmospheric window.
The GWP of HFCs is less than that of CFCs because HFCs have shorter
atmospheric lifetimes. CO2 is less efficient than other greenhouse gases
because its atmospheric concentration is high and hence its absorption bands
are nearly saturated. Over a 100-year time horizon, reducing SF6 emissions
by 1 kg is as effective from a greenhouse perspective as reducing CO2
emissions by 24,900 kg. Such considerations are important in designing
control strategies to meet regulatory goals!
Table 2.1: Global warming potentials from the instantaneous injection of

1 kg of a trace gas, relative to carbon dioxide
Global warming potential over

integration time horizon
Gas Lifetime, years 20 years 100 years 500 years
CO2 ~ 100 1 1 1
CH4 10 62 25 8
N2O 120 290 320 180
48
CFC-12 102 7900 8500 4200 Atmosphere and
Climate
HCFC-123 1.4 300 93 29
SF6 3200 16500 24900 36500
Source: Adapted from

http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/people/faculty/djj/book/bookchap7.html
2.7 DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Natural and anthropogenic substances (such aas greenhouse gases and
aerosols) and processes that alter the Earth’s energy budget are drivers of
climate change. Radiative forcing (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes
caused by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750, unless otherwise
indicated. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface
cooling. RF is estimated based on inin-situ and remote observations, properties
of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and calculations using numerical models
representing observed processes
esses (IPCC, 2013a). Fig. 2.8 (adapted from IPCC
(2013a)) shows the impact of each of the drivers on climate (in terms of
heating and cooling of the climate).
Fig. 2.8 : Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and ag

aggregated
uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are global
average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted
compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best
estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with
corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the 49
Introduction to
Global Climate right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH –
Change very high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). Albedo forcing
due to black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol
bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 Wm–2, including contrail induced
cirrus), and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 Wm–2) are not shown.
Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the like-
coloured bars. Volcanic forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes it
difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic
radiative forcing is provided for three different years relative to 1750. For
further technical details, see IPCC (2013) report on Climate change 2013:
Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policy Makers) and AR5 WG1
Technical Report (figure adapted from IPCC, 2013a)
Fig. 2.8 clearly shows that total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an
uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total
radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of
CO2 since 1750. Simply put, CO2 is the major cause of global warming since
the pre-industrial era till date mostly coming from anthropogenic sources.
IPCC (2013a) puts it very clearly, “Carbon dioxide concentrations have
increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel
emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions.”
Some significant points deduced from the study of radiative forcing and
climate drivers are as follows:
• Emissions of CO2 alone have caused an RF of 1.68 [1.33 to 2.03] Wm–2

(Fig. 2.8). Including emissions of other carbon-containing gases, which
also contributed to the increase in CO2 concentrations, the RF of CO2 is
1.82 [1.46 to 2.18] W m–2.
• Emissions of CH4 alone have caused an RF of 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20] Wm−2

(Fig. 2.8). This is much larger than the concentration-based estimate of
0.48 [0.38 to 0.58] Wm−2 (unchanged from AR4). This difference in
estimates is caused by concentration changes in ozone and stratospheric
water vapour due to CH4 emissions and other emissions indirectly
affecting CH4.
• Emissions of stratospheric ozone-depleting halocarbons have caused a

net positive RF of 0.18 [0.01 to 0.35] Wm−2 (Fig. 2.8). Their own
positive RF has outweighed the negative RF from the ozone depletion
that they have induced. The positive RF from all halocarbons is similar
to the value in AR4, with a reduced RF from CFCs but increases from
many of their substitutes.
• Emissions of short-lived gases contribute to the total anthropogenic RF.

Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) are virtually certain to have induced
a positive RF, while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are likely to
have induced a net negative RF (Fig. 2.8).
50
• The RF of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes Atmosphere and
cloud adjustments due to aerosols, is –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] Wm−2 (medium Climate
confidence), and results from a negative forcing from most aerosols and
a positive contribution from black carbon absorption of solar radiation.
There is high confidence that aerosols and their interactions with clouds
have offset a substantial portion of global mean forcing from well-mixed
greenhouse gases. They continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to
the total RF estimate.
2.8 LET US SUM UP

Climate change refers to significant, long-term changes in the global climate
system. Over time, earth has developed a climate that nurtures the life-system
and the planet is flourished with whole lot of flora, fauna and human beings.
The survival of human beings is solely dependent on the conducive climate
that the earth provides. However, IPCC reports state that anthropogenic
intervention has changed the climate system adversely. In this unit, we have
discussed the basic concepts like radiation balance, radiative forcing and
climate forcing mechanisms. While ‘External forcing’ refer to a forcing agent
outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system, the
‘Internal forcing’ operates from within the climate system. The forcing
mechanisms include orbital variations, solar variations, volcanic eruptions,
change in atmospheric composition, etc. Further, we have discussed the role
of greenhouse gases, greenhouse effect, global warming potential and drivers
of climate change.
2.9 KEY WORDS

Albedo: The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, often
expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo, the
albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation-covered surfaces and
oceans have a low albedo.
Greenhouse Effect: The infrared radiative effect of all infrared-absorbing

constituents in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases, clouds, and (to a small
extent) aerosols absorb terrestrial radiation emitted by the earth’s surface and
elsewhere in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse Gases: Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the

atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at
specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by
the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes
the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous
oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse
gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely
human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons
and other chlorine- and bromine containing substances.
51
Introduction to
Global Climate Global Warming Potential (GWP): An index, based on radiative properties
Change of greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing following a pulse
emission of a unit mass of a given greenhouse gas in the present-day
atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of carbon
dioxide.
2.10 SUGGESTED FURTHER

READING/REFERENCES
Buis, A., 2019, The Atmosphere: Getting a Handle on Carbon Dioxide,
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-
carbon-
dioxide/#:~:text=The%20concentration%20of%20carbon%20dioxide,it%20w
as%20near%20370%20ppm.
IPCC, 2013a: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC, 2013b: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.

Robock, A. (2000). Volcanic eruptions and climate change. Reviews of

Geophysics, 38(2), 191–219. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4411-3_227
Seinfeld, J. H., Pandis, S. N., 2006, Atmopsheric Chemistry and Physics:

From Air Pollution to Climate Change, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.
Ela, Wendell P., Masters, Gilbert M., 2014, Introduction to Environmental

Engineering and Science, Third Edition, Pearson Education Limited.
Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., 2013, The Atmosphere: An Introduction,

Pearson Education Limited
Wallace, J. M., Hobbs, P. V., 2016, Atmospheric Science: An Introductory

Survey, Elsevier Amsterdam
52
2.11 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS Atmosphere and
Climate
1) Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas. It is produced

continually by evaporation from water bodies and constitutes more than
50% of the GHGs. Its abundance is not a problem because it is short
lived and can diminish rapidly by condensation or rain. Its importance
lies in the fact that it amplifies temperature rise by creating a positive
feedback loop in the atmosphere. As temperature rises, more water
evaporates and more water vapour raises the temperature further. A
feedback loop also increases the heating effect of other gases.
2) The important greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide,

methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs and ozone.
53
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT 3 NATURAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Structure
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Earth’s tilt, Rotation and Orbital Changes
3.3.1 Earth’s Obliquity
3.3.2 Earth’s Eccentricity

3.3.3 Earth’s Precession
3.3.4 Sunspot Activity

3.4 Meteors and Volcanic Eruptions
3.4.1 Meteors

3.5 Changes in Ocean Currents
3.6 El Niño, La Niña Cycle and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
3.6.1 El Niño
3.6.2 La Niña Cycle

3.6.3 Arctic Oscillation (AO)
3.7 Tectonic Plates Movements
3.8 Greenhouse Gases Emissions
3.8.1 Emissions from Wetlands
3.8.2 Emissions from Soils

3.9 Let Us Sum Up
3.10 Key Words
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Earth's climate is determined by a compilation of many things and factors.
These effects include effects from the primary factors of Earth's axial tilt
angle, Earth's orbital eccentricity, and the precession, as well as some
secondary, external effects, such as meteorite/asteroid impacts on the earth's
surface and solar activity from the sun, including sunspots, solar flares, and
solar winds/geomagnetic storms. The Sunspot activities occurs on 11-year
cycle and during this time the Earth receives more shoots off solar flares, and
blasts with solar wind and geomagnetic activity from the Sun. Natural
catastrophes like meteors and volcanic eruptions plays important role in
54 bringing climate change. Volcanic eruptions have played important role in
making life possible on the Earth. Ashes and sulphate aerosols from the Atmosphere and
volcanoes play significant role in reducing insolation to the Earth and hence Climate
caused negative radiative forcing. Both surface ocean currents and deep
ocean currents plays important role in distribution of temperature across the
globe. Phenomena like El Niño, La Niña cycle and the Arctic oscillation
(AO) contributes significantly in perturbing global climate as well. The
tectonic plate movement’s theory was proposed by scientist Alfred Wegener
in 1912. The movement of tectonic plates has contributed to the climate
change in terms of geological time scale i.e., between 3.3 to 3.5 billion years
ago. Breaking up of Pangaea has created to shift some continents nearer to
the Equator whereas drifting away for others. Formation of mountains
seaway, ocean etc. has made changes in the climate what is today. Last but
not the least, wetlands which is also called “nature’s kidney” plays significant
role in carbon sequestration i.e., trapping of carbon in the form of biomass
and nutrient cycling. Water saturation of soil makes the place conducive to
form methane and nitrous oxide. Like, wetlands, soil plays a great role in
carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling too. In this unit, we would be
discussing the natural causes of climate change like earth’s obliquity,
eccentricity, precession, volcanic eruptions, changes in ocean currents, etc.
3.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the Earth’s tilt, rotation and orbital changes;

• explain the role of volcanic eruptions on climate change;
• explain the El Niño, La Niña Cycle and the Arctic Oscillation and
• explain the role of tectonic plates movement on climate change.
3.3 EARTH’S TILT, ROTATION AND ORBITAL

CHANGES
The Sun is the source of all life on Earth, and it is an important factor in
climate change. The total amount of solar radiation in the uppermost
atmosphere depends not only on how much energy the Sun emits at any
given time, but also on the position and tilt of the Earth in relation to the Sun.
It is these variations in the position and tilt of the Earth which explain the
long-term changes in climate on Earth, including the large changes observed
during the Ice Ages.
3.3.1 Earth’s Obliquity

The angle made between the Earth's axes of rotation with the vertical is
defined as Earth's obliquity. It ranges from 22.3 degrees to 24.5 degrees with
the vertical. It oscillates by 1.5 degree every 41,000 years. Today the
obliquity is about 23.5 degrees. This tilt decides the spatial difference of
incoming solar radiation during different months and so decides seasons on 55
Introduction to
Global Climate various locations at the Earth. More is the tilt greater is the extremes of the
Change climate. Increase in Earth's axial tilt with an angle more than 45 degrees can
lead to hotter summers and extremely cold in the northern hemisphere as
sunlight will be available for longer period of time and becoming closer to
the sun made it a better receptor of sunlight. In last 6,000–7,000 years, the tilt
of the Earth’s axis has decreased resulting in decrease solar irradiance during
the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, while the Tropics received less
incoming solar radiation.
Why tropics were colder at ancient times than now? One of the reasons
behind it was the larger axial tilt and as result had stronger monsoon
downpour than now and so the Sahara was a lush rainforest at that point of
time. Situation was reverse in case of northern hemisphere and so the
seasonal variations were much more then in comparison to now and so place
like Norway slowly started to form large glaciers and one of the such
examples could be Folgefonna which exists today but were not present in the
past.
3.3.2 Earth’s Eccentricity

Earth moves around the Sun in an elliptical path. The eccentricity in the orbit
of rotation makes the Earth as a whole sometime nearer and sometimes
farther from the Sun. Currently, Earth's eccentricity is about 0.0167, that is
nearer to the circular side of the eccentricity range Earth cycles through. In
last 100,000 years, Earth's eccentricity varied within the range of 0.005 to
0.0607. Eccentricity along with the axial tilt gives the seasonal variation to
the planet Earth.
3.3.3 Earth’s Precession

The Earth functions like a spinning top, rotates completely on its own axis in
24 hours. Earth’s spin axis never points towards the same direction relative to
the fixed stars. Instead, it slowly rotates. Due to this phenomenon, called
the precession of the equinoxes, the season (or day) when the Earth is at
perihelion (the point on the orbit that places Earth closest to the Sun) changes
with a periodicity of about 26,000 years. This precession movement is the
result of two other processes. “The first is Earth's wobbling motion
(slow axial precession), Ruddiman likens it to a top, how the top spins
rapidly, revolves around a point on the surface it's spinning on, and also
‘wobbles’ at the top of the top. Axial change of the Earth on its axis as it
rotates is called wobbling. The second process is called to as apsidal
precession i.e., the precession of the ellipse. In this second process, the entire
ellipse of Earth's orbital path rotates around the sun. When these two
processes are put together, they cause the solstices and equinoxes to
effectively move around the earth's orbital path to change how much solar
irradiation the hemispheres get during any given season”
(https://en.infon.in/33903903/1/orbital-effects-on-climate.html).
56
The precession of solstices and equinoxes plays an important role in Earth’s Atmosphere and
climate change. The solstices and equinoxes cause the seasons to occur at Climate
different times in Earth's revolution around the sun throughout a cycle at a

periodicity of about every 26,000 years. For example, in the Northern
Hemisphere, when the Earth is at its aphelion, farthest from the sun causes
the less temperature variation between winter and summer and vice-versa is
the case in the southern part. On the contrary, when the earth is at its
perihelion, closest to the sun, about 5,750 years later, then the differences are
most remarkable. At present the Earth is at aphelion, so the southern
hemisphere climate is more extreme whereas in the northern hemisphere
summers and winters are moderate.
3.3.4 Sunspot Activity

The total solar irradiance varies over time and can be related to the well-
known 11-year sunspot cycle. Higher sunspot activity yields increased solar
irradiance towards Earth, and vice versa. Actual observations of sunspots on
the sun’s surface reveal that the last half of the 1600s were a period of
abnormally little sunspot activity. Following this period, called the “Maunder
minimum”, sunspot activity has increased. However, direct measurements of
solar irradiance by satellites have not indicated any positive trends since
1978. This means that changes in solar irradiance alone cannot explain the
recent observed global warming.
“Our sun has a solar activity cycle of about 11 years. During which time, the
sun gets sunspots, shoots off solar flares, and blasts earth with solar wind
and geomagnetic activity. Despite the appearance that these events seem
random, they do overall follow a fairly steady cycle of approximately 11
years. The difference in average solar irradiation received by the earth due
to these ‘random’ events, though, is merely 0.1%. Overall, the total
irradiation generated by the sun, and received by the earth is a major factor
affecting Earth climate” (https://en.infon.in/33903903/1/orbital-effects-on-
climate.html). The total solar irradiation received by Earth's surface can be
calculated mathematically.
This can be done through the following equation:
Gt = GND + Gd + GR …………………………………………….3.1
Where,
Gt = Total solar irradiation received by Earth's surface;
GND = Direct irradiation from the sun;
Gd = Diffuse irradiation from nearby surroundings being heated up by the

sun; and
GR = The reflected irradiation from other nearby surfaces.

57
Introduction to
Global Climate 3.4 METEORS AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Change
3.4.1 Meteors
Meteors or asteroids are two important external forces that affect Earth's
climate. Just to imagine, asteroids only about two km in diameter can create
craters of 40 km i.e., 20-times in diameter at Earth's surface. Phenomena of
such an impact could throw huge amount of dust into the atmosphere as well
that prevents incoming solar radiation to reach upon the earth. Further, it also
perturbs the sea level, precipitation, temperature, ocean currents, and
atmospheric circulation.
“Asteroids and meteors are not, however, the only external forces to affect
Earth climate change. Variations in solar output can also bring about
climate change on the Earth. More specifically, varying amounts of sun
activity, including sunspots, solar flares, solar wind, and massive solar
radiation, can all be grouped together as geomagnetic storms, which
together, act to affect Earth's climate”
(https://en.infon.in/33903903/1/orbital-effects-on-climate.html).

Volcanic eruptions are one of important natural factors that impact the
weather and climate. Volcanic activities emit huge amount of ashes, SO2,
HCl, CO2 and steam into the atmosphere. The impact has been recorded for
two-years or even more after the eruption. The volcanic activities have not
only injected the SO2 gas directly into the atmosphere but also the
transformation of it into sulphate aerosols.
There are various ways through which volcanic forcing affects or impacts the
climate. There is 1st phenomenon called aerosol-radiation interaction.
Sulphate aerosols are tiny enough and scatter back the incoming solar
radiation and so contribute as negative radiative forcing (RF) agent. 2nd
phenomena created as a result of creation of differential vertical or horizontal
heating which produces gradients and changes the circulation. Thirdly,
interactions with other modes of circulation, such as El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) contribute to radiative forcing. 3rd impact is upon ozone
(O3) layer depletion. Depletion of stratospheric O3 triggers the heating up of
this layer provided availability of free-chlorine got enhanced and vice-versa.
Additionally, the reduced direct solar radiation impacts the vegetation and
hence impacts the global carbon cycle as well. Impact is not only upon the
carbon cycle but also upon hydrological cycle by impacting aerosol–cloud
interaction. The sulphate aerosols impact the clouds in the troposphere as
well. Lava, carbon dioxide (CO2), ash and particles got expelled under the
volcanic activity. Though CO2 has a positive radiative forcing effect but
average volcanic CO2 emissions contribution is less than 1% of emissions as
compared to anthropogenic contributions. Large volumes of gases, ash and
58 sulphate aerosols can influence climatic patterns for years by enhanced
planetary reflectivity causing overall atmospheric cooling i.e., negative Atmosphere and
radiative forcing. The last major volcanic eruption occurred was Mt Pinatubo Climate
in 1991and this has caused a decrease of 0.5 °C in the global temperature.

Even several volcanic eruptions of lesser magnitude have caused a RF for the
years 2008–2011 of –0.11 (–0.15 to –0.08) W m–2. This negative RF is
thought to have been an important factor in cooling the Earth’s surface during
the period called the little ice age (ca. 1550-1800AD).
3.5 CHANGES IN OCEAN CURRENTS

Hydrosphere in general and oceans in particular plays a crucial role in global
climate. The ocean has an interconnected current, or circulation system
powered by wind, tides, the Earth’s rotation (Coriolis effect), the sun (solar
energy), and water density differences. Ocean currents are of two types i.e.,
surface current and deep water. The topography and shape of ocean basins
and nearby landmasses impacts ocean currents as well. Surface currents are
driven by global wind systems that are governed by insolation from the sun.
Factors like wind direction, Coriolis force and the position of landforms that
interact with the currents impacts the surface current. Surface wind-driven
currents forms upwelling currents along with landforms, creating deep water
currents. Surface currents are located at the ocean surface whereas deep
water currents prevail below 300 meters. Deep water current can move water
both horizontally and vertically and occurrences could be on both local and
global levels. Deep ocean currents are density-driven and differ from surface
currents in scale, speed, and energy. Water density is affected by the
temperature, salinity (saltiness), and depth of the water. The colder and saltier
the ocean water, the denser it is. The more is the density gradient between
different layers in the water column, the greater the mixing and so is the
circulation. Density differences in ocean water contribute to a global-scale
circulation system, also called the global conveyor belt. Together, these
currents transport heat from the tropics to the higher latitudes. Warm water
from the tropics flows towards the poles in wind-driven surface-currents. On
cooling, it becomes denser and heavier, and got sink which began flowing
back toward the equator in a relatively slower but deep in the ocean. The
global conveyor belt includes both surface and deep ocean currents that
circulate the globe in a 1,000-year cycle. The global circulation system of the
ocean not only plays a key role in distributing heat energy, regulating
weather and climate, but also in transportation of nutrients and oceanic
productivity. In recent past, scientists have observed that the Atlantic Ocean's
circulation has slowed by about 15 %, and if it continues then it can have
serious implications on Earth's inhabitants by having much colder winters
and hotter summers in Europe, altered rainfall patterns in the tropics, and
warmer water building up along the U.S. coast. In year 2015, decline in cod
fishery recorded as a result of rapidly warming water in the Gulf of Maine,
which fits the pattern of slowing Atlantic circulation. Recede of warm water
from the East Coast also got related to 2011's destructive Hurricane Irene, as
59
Introduction to
Global Climate well as Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Change
3.6 EL NIÑO, LA NIÑA CYCLE AND THE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)
Changes in climate are not due to the external factor alone. Climate system
itself can trigger a change in climate as well and positive feedbacks could be
the one. Phenomena like El Niño–La Niña cycle, which can cause warming
and cooling for a shorter span.
3.6.1 El Niño
During an El Niño event, the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean become warmer. El Nino is the “warm phase” of a
larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño
has an impact on ocean temperatures, the ocean currents, coastal fisheries,
and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond. It occurs
irregularly at an interval of 2 to 7 years. However, El Niño is not a regular
cycle, or predictable in the sense that ocean tides are. It was first recognized
by fishers off the coast of Peru as the appearance of unusually warm water.
Spanish immigrants called it El Niño, meaning “the little boy” when
capitalized, it means “the Christ Child”, as this phenomenon often arrived
around Christmas-eve.
Later, Sir Gilbert Walker in the 1930s and other climatologists determined
that El Niño occurs in concurrence with the Southern Oscillation.
The Southern Oscillation is a change in air pressure over the tropical Pacific
Ocean. Warmer the coastal water over the eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño)
lesser is the atmospheric pressure above the ocean. Climatologists define
these linked phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is used to measure deviations from normal
sea surface temperatures. During El Niño events the sea surface temperature
increases of more than 0.9° Fahrenheit for at least five successive three-
month seasons. The intensity of El Niño depends upon the temperature
change. It can have moderate or local effect on climate if temperature
increases by about 4–5° F to global if temperature increases by 14–18° F.
In reverse, La Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the
unusual cooling of the region’s surface waters. El Niño and La Niña are
considered the ocean part of ENSO, while the Southern Oscillation is
its atmospheric changes. El Niño devastated western South American
fisheries and fertilizer industry. The South American fertilizer industry is run
by the droppings of seabirds, whose population declines during El Niño
events due to a reduction in their food source (fish). Similarly, El Nino has
devastating impact on agricultural-based Indian economy too by suppressing
monsoon rainfall.
60 El Niño does not support Upwelling!
Strong trade winds blow westward across the tropical Pacific. The tropical Atmosphere and
pacific is the region of the Pacific Ocean which is located between the Tropic Climate
of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. These strong trade winds push warm
surface water towards the western Pacific bordering Asia and Australia.
“Due to the warm trade winds, rise in ocean surface got recorded by about
0.5 m higher and 45° F warmer in Indonesia than Ecuador. As a result, it
pushes warmer water westward. Upwelling is defined as the westward
movement of warmer waters that causes cooler waters to rise up towards the
surface on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. It elevates cold, nutrient-
rich water to the euphotic zone, the upper layer of the ocean. Nutrients in the
cold water include nitrates and phosphates. Tiny organisms
called phytoplankton use them for photosynthesis, the process that creates
chemical energy from sunlight. Other organisms, such as clams, eat the
plankton, while predators like fish or marine mammals’ prey on clams.
Upwelling provides food for a wide variety of marine life, including most
major fisheries. Fishing is one of the primary industries of Peru, Ecuador,
and Chile. Some of the fisheries include anchovy, sardine, mackerel, shrimp,
tuna, and hake. The upwelling process also influences global climate. The
warm ocean temperature in the western Pacific contributes to increased
rainfall around the islands of Indonesia and New Guinea. The air influenced
by the cool eastern Pacific, along the coast of South America, remains
relatively dry” (https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-
nino/print/).
3.6.2 La Niña
La Niña is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this pattern,
strong winds blow warm water at the ocean's surface from South America to
Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises to
the surface near the coast of South America.
3.6.3 The Arctic Oscillation (AO)

The Arctic oscillation (AO), is a large-scale mode of climate variability
which is also called as the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. It is a climate
pattern associated with winds circulating counter clockwise around the
Arctic at around 55°N latitude. AO brings warmer weather to parts of Europe
and North America and colder Arctic than usual. In the other phase of the
AO, it resulted into the opposite conditions i.e., Arctic warmer-than-usual
and sub-polar regions became colder. Because of this see-saw effect, the AO
has little effect on global temperatures, but can significantly influence local
and regional weather.
3.7 TECTONIC PLATES MOVEMENTS 61

Introduction to
Global Climate The outer shell of the Earth is called the lithosphere which is divided into
Change pieces called tectonic plates. Tectonic movement led to crustal thickening,
isostatic uplift and deformation of lithosphere. The movement of tectonic
plates has contributed to the climate change in terms of geological time scale
i.e., between 3.3 to 3.5 billion years ago. The plate tectonic
movement theory was first proposed by the scientist Alfred Wegener in 1912.
Wegener proposed that the present continents were once a single landmass
called Pangaea. Breaking up of Pangaea has moved some continents nearer to
the Equator whereas drifting away for others.
At one place, plates converges and mountains formed whereas at places

where plates pulled apart oceans formed. The continents closer to the equator
received more insolation than those at a distance and so had differential
heating pattern. Continents even now continues to move at the rate of about 3
cm per year. Creation of ocean, mountains, etc., has created different level of
interactions:
• Land-ocean
The thermal retention property of land varies to that of ocean. The continental
region gets colder in winter and warmer in summer than an oceanic region.
Since, water absorbs heat during the day time and retains it for a longer
period than the land. So, difference registered in day and night temperature at
land is more to that of ocean.
• Rain shadow
Formation of mountain ranges as a result of plate tectonic activity changes

the rainfall through the effects of orography. This happens as a result of
formation of a rain shadow on the leeward side of mountain belts. The
mountains block the passage of rain-producing weather systems and cast a
"shadow" of dryness behind them.
• Ocean currents
Global climate is also strongly controlled by ocean currents. Ocean currents

depend on the geometry of the oceans and this is controlled by plate
tectonics. Hence, over geological timescales the movement of plates and
continents has a profound effect on the distribution of land masses, mountain
ranges and the connectivity of the oceans. As a consequence, plate tectonics
has a very direct and fundamental influence on global climate. We already
discussed about ocean currents, El Nino, La Nina and arctic oscillation.
• Formation of sea way
The climate of modern Antarctica is extreme. Being located over the South
Pole, the continent is covered by glacial ice. But case was not the same 50
million years ago. Possibly a shallow seaway between Antarctica and South
America was there but both continents were moving together. About 50
62 million years ago, both South America and Antarctica started moving
differentially and as a result split apart very rapidly and the subsequent Atmosphere and
formation of Drake Passage. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current that Climate
completely encircles Antarctica and gives rise to the stormy region of the
Southern Ocean known as the roaring forties. The Antarctic circumpolar
current facilitates inter-ocean exchange of seawater and have reduced heat
transport to Antarctica, triggering the Oligocene global cooling as a result of
sequestered atmospheric CO2, contributing to global cooling and Antarctic
glaciation.
1) What is Earth’s obliquity?
……………………………………………………………………………
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2) What is El Nino?
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3) What is Arctic Oscillation?
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3.8 GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS

63
Introduction to
Global Climate 3.8.1 Emissions from Wetlands
Change
Wetlands are an interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. They
are also called “nature’s kidney”. They are water saturated either throughout
the year or part of it. Swamps, marshes peat lands are those wetlands where
water remain available throughout the year whereas floodplains are those
where water saturation remain seasonally. Wetlands are sensitive ecosystem
and its role is prime in terms of carbon sequestration i.e., synthesis of
biomass and nutrient cycling and dynamics and greenhouse gases emission as
well. Growth of plants is faster in this ecosystem type so it scavenges CO2
from the atmosphere at a faster rate. But soil here is deficient of oxygen as a
result of water saturation. So, carbon that gets incorporated into the soil
decomposes at a very slow rate and can be trapped for hundreds or even
thousands of years. Meeting few favourable conditions like anaerobic
condition under high temperature condition leads to the production of two
prominent GHGs, like CH4 and N2O. Wetlands not only produce but also
store huge amount of CH4 as well. The potential of unit amount of CH4 to
cause global warming as compared to unit amount of CO2 is defined as
global warming potential (GWP) and it varied in terms of time scale we
compare. On a 100-year time scale, CH4 possesses 25 times higher global
warming potential than CO2. Natural wetlands release 177 to 284 Tg CH4
annually. Increase in temperature accelerates the production of CH4. Through
receipt of nitrogen in various forms from different sources like from run-off
of excess fertilizers from lands, decay of plant biomass or availability of
atmospheric nitrogen, nitrogen got fixed by the process of nitrification. In
nitrification NH4+ gets oxidized into nitrate (NO3−) via nitrite (NO2−). At the
same it also gets released through the process of denitrification i.e., reduction
of nitrate (NO3−) into nitrous oxide (N2O) and N2. N2O is a potential GHG
and it’s per molecule GWP is 298 times to that of CO2 over 100-year time
scale. Though, wetlands are evident in terms of GHG sink but interference of
human has destroyed this sensitive ecosystem and as a result it becomes one
of the potent contributors, about 1/3rd of total natural and anthropogenic
emissions of CH4 and N2O. Through models, scientists have predicted that
wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean
radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century.
3.8.2 Emissions from Soils

Like wetlands, soils sequester considerable amount of terrestrial carbon and
nitrogen through the process of photosynthesis and nitrification respectively.
So, it reduces the atmospheric CO2 burden and enhances carbon and total
nitrogen stored in the soil. Terrestrial top soil accounts for 1500 Pg and 136
Pg, carbon and nitrogen pool respectively. But conversely, an unsustainable
agricultural practice has forced the soil to release carbon in the form of
carbon dioxide (CO2) and emission of N2O through the process of
denitrification. Further, CH4 in soils gets generated under anaerobic condition
64
by methanogenesis and it is used as substrate by
methanotrophic microorganisms which use O2 and CH4 for their metabolism Atmosphere and
under aerobic conditions. Similarly, as already discussed the emission of N2O Climate
is produced mainly by denitrification under anaerobic conditions, where the

water-filled pore space is more than 50%.
3.9 LET US SUM UP

Earth's climate is influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors. As
regards the natural causes of climate change, the factors such as Earth's axial
tilt angle, Earth's orbital eccentricity, and the precession, as well as external
effects, such as meteorite/asteroid impacts on the earth's surface and solar
activity from the sun, including sunspots, solar flares, and solar
winds/geomagnetic storms influence the earth’s climate. Earth's obliquity
ranges from 22.3 degrees to 24.5 degrees with the vertical. It oscillates by 1.5
degree every 41,000 years. Presently, the obliquity is about 23.5 degrees. As
regards the earth’s eccentricity, it is about 0.0167. The Sunspot activities
occurs on 11-year cycle and during this time the Earth receives more shoots
of solar flares, and blasts with solar wind and geomagnetic activity from the
Sun. Natural catastrophes like meteors and volcanic eruptions plays
important role in bringing climate change. Ocean currents play important role
in distribution of temperature across the globe. Also, phenomena like El
Niño, La Niña cycle and the Arctic oscillation (AO) contributes significantly
in perturbing global climate. In this unit, we have discussed the Earth’s tilt,
rotation and orbital changes, the role of volcanic eruptions on climate change,
the El Niño, La Niña Cycle and the Arctic Oscillation and also the role of
tectonic plates movement on climate change.
3.10 KEY WORDS

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The El Niño was initially used to
describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of
Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become identified
with a basin-wide warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean east of the dateline.
This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a global scale tropical
and subtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This
coupled atmosphere–ocean phenomenon, with preferred time scales of two to
about seven years, is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Solar (‘11-year’) cycle: A quasi-regular modulation of solar activity with

varying amplitude and a period of between 8 and 14 years.
Sunspots: Dark areas on the Sun where strong magnetic fields reduce the
convection causing a temperature reduction of about 1500 K compared to the
surrounding regions. The number of sunspots is higher during periods of
higher solar activity, and varies in particular with the solar cycle.

65
Introduction to
Global Climate READING/REFERENCES
Change
Burroughs WJ (2007) Climate Change: A multidisciplinary approach. 2nd

Edition.Cambridge University Press. Pp.390. ISBN: 978-0-521-69033-1
Dessler A (2016) Introduction to Modern Climate Change. 2nd

Edition.Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-521-17315-5
Fletcher C (2018) Climate Change: What the science tells us. 2nd
Edition.John Wiley & Sons. Pp.336. ISBN: 978-1-118-79306-0
Houghton JT (2015) Global Warming: The complete briefing. 5th

Edition.Cambridge University Press. Pp.456. ISBN: 978-0-521-70916.
IPCC, (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.

IPCC, (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An

IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-
industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the
context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte,
V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W.
Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y.
Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T.
Waterfield (eds.)]. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland,
32 pp.
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Web Links
66
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/ Atmosphere and
Climate
https://en.infon.in/33903903/1/orbital-effects-on-climate.html
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/print/
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/ocean-currents-and-climate/
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/ocean-currents-and-climate/
https://www.sofarocean.com/posts/understanding-surface-currents-vs-deep-
ocean-currents

1) The angle made between the Earth's axes of rotation with the vertical is
defined as Earth's obliquity. It ranges from 22.3 degrees to 24.5 degrees
with the vertical. It oscillates by 1.5 degree every 41,000 years.
Presently, the obliquity is about 23.5 degrees. This tilt decides the spatial
difference of incoming solar radiation during different months and so
decides seasons on various locations at the Earth.
2) El Nino was first recognized by fishers off the coast of Peru as the
appearance of unusually warm water. Spanish immigrants called it El
Niño, meaning “the little boy” when capitalized, it means “the Christ
Child”, as this phenomenon often arrived around Christmas-eve. During
an El Niño event, the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean become warmer. El Nino is the “warm phase” of a
larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El
Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the ocean currents, coastal
fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and
beyond. It occurs irregularly at an interval of 2 to 7 years. However, El
Niño is not a regular cycle, or predictable in the sense that ocean tides
are.
3) The Arctic oscillation (AO), is a large-scale mode of climate variability

which is also calledas the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. It is a
climate pattern associated with winds circulating counter clockwise
around the Arctic at around 55°N latitude. AO brings warmer weather to
parts of Europe and North America and colder Arctic than usual. In the
other phase of the AO, it resulted into the opposite conditions i.e., Arctic
warmer-than-usual and sub-polar regions became colder. Because of this
see-saw effect, the AO has little effect on global temperatures, but can
significantly influence local and regional weather.
UNIT 4 ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES OF

67
Introduction to
Global Climate CLIMATE CHANGE
Change
Structure
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives
4.3 Urbanization
4.3.1 Burning of fossil fuels
4.3.2 Waste Decomposition
4.3.3 Impact of Urbanization
4.3.3.1 Loss of Green Cover

4.3.3.2 The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect
4.3.3.3 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions
4.3.4 Steps taken towards making of a sustainable city

4.4 Deforestation
4.5 Desertification
4.5.1 Processes and drivers of desertification
4.5.1.1 Soil erosion
4.5.1.2 Soil acidification, salinization and depletion of soil moisture
4.5.1.3 Enhanced atmospheric CO2 level

4.5.1.4 Forest Fires
4.6 Agriculture
4.6.1 Emissions
4.6.2 Mitigation technologies and practices
4.7 Livestock management
4.8 Aerosols
4.8.1 Pathways and Radiative forcing
4.8.2 Life time
4.8.3 Sources of Aerosols

4.8.3.1 Primary anthropogenic aerosols as Industrial dust
4.8.3.2 Primary anthropogenic aerosols as Carbonaceous aerosols
4.8.3.3 Nitrates Aerosol and its Radiative effects

4.8.3.4 Other important sources of primary aerosols
4.8.3.5 Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA)
4.8.3.6 Effects of aerosol at a glance!

4.9 Let Us Sum Up
4.10 Key Words
68 4.11 Suggested Further Reading/References

4.12 Answers to Check Your Progress Atmosphere and
Climate
4.1 INTRODUCTION
The surface temperature of the earth is controlled by the balance between the
absorbed solar radiation and the emitted infrared radiation. During the past
150 years the amount of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere has increased from
280 parts per million (ppm) to more than 400 ppm by burning of fossil fuels.
Urbanization, deforestation and desertification, agriculture and livestock
activity have been categorized as important sectors in emitting CO2, CH4,
N2O, particulate matter containing Black Carbon (BC), volatile organic
carbon (VOCs), etc. In this unit, we endeavour to discuss the role of
urbanization, deforestation and desertification on climate change. Further, we
will discuss about the major greenhouse gases emissions from agriculture and
livestock sector.
4.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the role of urbanization on climate change;

• explain the role of deforestation and desertification on climate change;
and
• explain the greenhouse gases emissions from agriculture and livestock
sector.
4.3 URBANIZATION
The world population has grown significantly and we have reached 7.8
billion by March 2020. Increasing population needs livelihood, good
education and other amenities to sustain and enjoy good life. As a result,
there is a constant process of inflow of population from the rural to urban
areas. In year 2007, world’s urban and rural populations were almost same at
3.33 billion each. But by 2016, world's urban populations increased to 4
billion whereas rural population has increased only marginally to 3.4 billion.
In the year 2009, megacities had 4.7 % of the world’s population, meaning
there by about one in every twenty people on Earth live in megacities. Large-
scale industrialization began in the 18th century that cities really began to
expand. UN reported that 54% of people in the world lived in urban areas in
2016. By 2030 the urban land use cover will be triple, increasing by 1.2
million km2.
By 2030 it is estimated thaturban land cover will nearly triple, increasing by

1.2million km2(Seto et al. 2012) and most of the world’spopulation will be
exposed to anthropogenic climatechange in urban areas (IPCC 2014).
Nearly half of all people now live in urban areas. Urbanization is on the rise
all over the globe without any exception. Urbanization has created megacities 69
Introduction to
Global Climate with high population density, where more than 10 million people live.
Change
Currently we have 33-megacities in the world as per United Nations report
and nine of the 10 cities projected to become megacities by 2030. Currently,
India has 5-major megacity that includes New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata,
Bengaluru and Chennai. Current population of New Delhi is 26.7 million and
10 million people are expected to join this city by 2030. Megacity dwellers
need infrastructure like housing, road, schools, hospitals, etc., and also need
energy for transportation and to sustain other household activities, waste
management. There are few examples of sustainable green megacity and
Yokohama, Japan kept its place on the top. By 2030, global energy demands
are expected to increase by 60 to 85 per cent. So, urbanization has impact
upon land-use and energy consumption pattern creating urban heat island.
Urban residents currently control on an average 22% of the land carbon
uptake (112 Pg C/year) and about 24% of the carbon emissions (117 Pg
C/year) from land globally (Churkina, 2016).
4.3.1 Burning of Fossil Fuels

Expansion of urbanization is progressing at a faster rate and so is the burning
of fossil fuel to meet the development goals. According to Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2018, urban areas consume between 67%
of total energy use and account for more than 3/4th of CO2 emissions from it.
In the last decade, the urban contribution in global carbon emissions from
burning of fossil fuels estimated to be ∼6.7 Pg C per annum. It is used in
domestic sector as well as in the transport sector. Urban transportation alone
shares 40% of global energy consumption that shares about 8% of the
world’s total energy consumption. The demand for mobility is growing and
the total number of urban passenger-kilometres travelled could be tripled
from 2010 to 2015. Urban areas are finding way to meet the mobility
challenges while strategies have been developed to reduce overall fuel
consumption. Energy efficiency in this sector is being looked at from three
perspectives i.e., to improve the system, to improve transport efficiency and
to improve vehicle efficiency.
4.3.2 Waste Decomposition

Urban inhabitants produce large amounts of both solid and liquid waste.
Various city has developed a robust way of collecting household solid waste
and segregating at source so that waste can be recycled, incinerated,
composted, or deposited in the landfills. Liquid waste from household either
left untreated and goes to natural aquifers or channelized to wastewater
treatment plants. Gases such as CO2, CH4, and volatile organic compounds
are emitted during decomposition of waste at landfills. Waste decomposition
accounts for 40–70% of total CH4 emissions. Global emissions of CH4 from
landfills and waste are estimated to 0.056 Pg C per year (Churkina, 2016).
70 4.3.3 Impact of Urbanization

4.3.3.1 Loss of Green Cover Atmosphere and
Climate
One of the visible changes in the land use change resulted as a result of
urbanization is loss of green cover. Urban expansion is constantly causing
destruction of green cover areas by clearing forest or by converting
agricultural land for creating infrastructures like housing, road, and other
infrastructure needed for human settlements. So, there is perturbation in
green areas and in urban areas it varies from city to city. In Europe, city like
Budapest shares 53% of total area as green space whereas Athens, Greece
merely shares 4% of the total area as green one. In general, the cities of the
US are greener on average than European ones. On an average, the urban tree
cover in the USA is about 27%. Under Indian situation, green cover of Delhi
shares 21.9% whereas Mumbai shares 18% area but share of Kolkata is far
less i.e., about 1% of the total area. Nowadays, efforts are being made
towards vertical greening of buildings and pillars as well. Inspired by the
initiative of Mexico Metro rail, the Bengaluru Metro and Kochi Metro have
already adopted the concept of greening the metro pillars and this has
recently been followed by Delhi metro too.
4.3.3.2 The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is defined as the difference in temperature of
the urban areas being warmer (0.6 to 1.30C) in comparison with the
surrounding rural areas. Reduction in green space and addition to higher
energy consumption alters the reflectivity of the urban space. Building
material and geometry of urban housing makes urban area relatively lower
(15-30%) reflector (albedo). These factors apart, other anthropogenic
activities as well contribute positively in enhancing the overall temperature of
the city in comparison to the neighbouring rural surrounding. Increase in
urban temperature acts as fine trap pollutants. So, it alters precipitation and
urban areas expect it more by 5% to 10% in comparison to rural
neighbouring areas. It not only affects the weather by declining cloud cover
and lowering of wind speed but also enhances the soil dryness and overall
anthropogenic heat. Moreover, UHI not only affects the climate but it has
also synergistic effect upon the health of the urban dwellers and specially the
urban poor.
4.3.3.3 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Emissions

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) resulted as a bi-product of fossil fuel
burning.According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2019)
urbanized areas contributed currently to more than 71% of energy-related
global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and this is expected to rise to 76% by 2030.
Taking consumption-oriented perspective (where emissions are allocated to
the persons whose consumption caused the emissions), total GHG emissions
rates would exceed.
4.3.4 Steps taken towards making of a sustainable city 71

Introduction to
Global Climate Cities around the world are pledging to make use of 100% clean energy.
Change Copenhagen pledges to be carbon-neutral by 2025, whereas Munich is
planning to have 100 % of its electricity powered by renewable energy by the
year 2025 as well (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/the-
copenhagen-effect-how-europe-can-become-heat-efficient/).
Have you heard about Eco-cities?
Every bit of steps been taken to convert a city into eco-city by taking care to
be carbon neutral by depending upon renewable energy sources, effective
management of waste generated and treatment and recycling of water, etc.
City planners are opting for water-saving fittings, insulated walls, double-
glazed windows, south-face orientation to optimize passive heat, solar
photovoltaic roofs and walls, and on-site energy generating stations. With
advancing technology, there has been a constant rise in the number of eco-
cities around the world. Just to name few are Masdar City in Abu Dhabi and
PlanIT Valley in Portugal.
Green Building
A ‘green’ building can be defined as that building that reduce or negates the
negative impacts on our climate and natural environment in its design,
construction or operation. It includes efficient use of energy, water and other
natural resources. It also emphasises upon use of renewable energy, mostly
solar energy, abatement of pollution and waste management in place and
emphasis is upon recycling and re-use. It has selection of that non-toxic and
more sustainable material in construction of buildings. In a nutshell, every bit
of steps has been taken right from design of the building to construction and
its operation under this. It’s a win-win situation for both the occupant as well
for the mother Earth. These building hardly demand any resources from the
outside but are self-sustained. Government of India too is emphasising upon
green buildings for housing a school, a hospital, a community centre, or
home etc.
4.4 DEFORESTATION
Forests affect local, regional and global climates through multiple pathways,
beyond just carbon sequestration. Deforestation has several potential impacts
on climate through altering the biogeochemical cycle of carbon and nitrogen.
Atmospheric carbon gets sequestered in the form of plant biomass through
the process of photosynthesis and gets locked in soil as soil organic carbon.
Similarly, nitrogen present in the elemental form in atmosphere and made
available to plants through the process of nitrification by nitrifying bacteria.
Process of locking up these elements and unlocking is a continuous process
and it gets perturbed if human intervention exceeds the carrying capacity of
the ecosystem. Deforestation can contribute to warming or cooling by
changing the albedo, or how much sunlight is reflected; reducing
72 evapotranspiration, which cools the air; affecting the release of aerosols and
biogenic volatile organic compounds, which can affect cloud formation; and Atmosphere and
changing the roughness of Earth’s surface, which can affect wind speed. Climate
Mainly deforestation in the tropics accounts for up to one third of man-made

CO2 emissions. Annually, about 2 Gt of carbon gets added to the atmosphere
due to tropical deforestation. The rate of forest clearing is difficult to
estimate, probably until the mid-20th century, temperate deforestation and
the loss of organic matter from soils was a more important contributor to
atmospheric carbon dioxide than was the burning of fossil fuels. The global
C-sequestration potential of agricultural soils amounts to 0.73–0.87
Pg C/year. 30–35% of the soil carbon stored in the top soil (7 cm) is lost
within the first 30 years after converting forest into agricultural land.
4.5 DESERTIFICATION
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
established by United Nations in 1994 has defined desertification as “land
degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various
factors, including climatic variations and human activities”. The Convention
itself was a response to a call at the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in
1992 to hold negotiations for an international legal agreement on
desertification. Drylands currently cover about 46.2% of the global land area
and are home to 3 billion people. The multiplicity and complexity of the
processes of desertification make its quantification difficult. The UNCCD
estimates that around 12 million hectares of productive land are lost to
desertification and drought each year. This is an area that could produce 20m
tonnes of grain produced per year.
4.5.1 Processes and Drivers of Desertification

Desertification is a blend of physico-chemical and biological processes. The
number of desertification processes is large. Initial studies of desertification
during the early-to-mid 20th century attributed entirely due to human
interference. Processes of desertification and land degradation linked with
changing climate. Important processes related to land degradation and
desertification are discussed below-
4.5.1.1 Soil Erosion

Soil erosion refers to removal of top soil by the physical factors like water,
wind, or often caused by tilling. Deforestation, intensive grazing, loss of soil
moisture etc. are causes for it. The global estimates of soil erosion range
widely from 20 Gt/year to more than 200 Gt/year. Borrelli et al., 2013,
modelled that about 6.1% of the global land area experienced very high soil
erosion rates which is more than 10 Mg ha−1 yr−1 in year 2012, particularly in
South America, Africa, and Asia.
73
Introduction to
Global Climate 4.5.1.2 Soil Acidification, Salinization and Depletion of Soil
Change Moisture
Soil acidification is the build-up of hydrogen cations (H+) in the soil which
resulted into reduction of soil pH. Over use of Ammonium (NH4+) based
fertilisers are main cause to soil acidification. Available ammonium (NH4+)
nitrogen is readily converted to nitrate (NO3-) and hydrogen (H+) ions in
the soil. Nitrate (NO3-) ion gets leached out resulting in lowering of soil pH.
Soil salinity is defined as the amount of dissolved salts in the soil solution
whereas the process of accumulating soluble salts in the soil is known
as salinization. Salt content contribute significantly on the functions and
management of soil. Increase in atmospheric temperature fasten up the rate of
evapotranspiration and as a result salt gets accumulated in the top soil
especially in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid regions worldwide.
In India nearly 9.38 million ha area is occupied by salt-affected soils and
states like Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh
are badly affected by it. Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal
and Rajasthan, together shares about 75% of saline soils in the country.
Climate change perturbs the hydrological cycle which can cause soil
salinization by enhancing the mineral content in the groundwater and
anthropogenic activities like poorly managed irrigation schemes makes the
situation even worse. Rise in sea level and seawater intrusion are getting
amplified as a result of climate change as well.
Low soil moisture content is expected to amplify the turnover of soil organic
carbon (SOC). The decomposition of the soil organic matter by microbial
activity starts with the availability of low soil water but this moisture does
not support plant productivity. As a result, rise in temperature of top-soil in
dryland areas causes transfer of carbon (C) from soil to the atmosphere.
4.5.1.3 Enhanced Atmospheric CO2 Level

Increase in CO2 levels supports the growth of invasive plant species. For
example, Great Basin region in western North America which has over 20%
of ecosystems as invasive plants like exotic annual grasses and conifers and
growth of these invasive plants have caused destruction of native plants and
so caused net loss of biodiversity. This land-cover conversion has resulted in
reductions in forage availability, loss of wildlife habitat, and decline in
overall biodiversity of niche.
4.5.1.4 Forest Fires

The forest fire is one of the important drivers of desertification. It reduces
vegetation cover and so increases surface runoff and soil erosion. As a result,
it reduces soil fertility and affects the soil microbial community as well.
Occurrence of forest fire especially in semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas
have been intensified due to predicted increases in temperature and the
74 severity of drought events across became frequent. In these areas, fire can
have a profound influence on observed vegetation and particularly on the Atmosphere and
relative abundance of grasses to woody plants. Climate
Anthropogenic activities like deforestation, cropland expansion,

unsustainable land management practices including overgrazing by livestock,
land use change due to urban expansion and infrastructure development, and
extractive industries like coal, iron ore etc. are creating pressure upon natural
vegetation and so causing land degradation and desertification. Climate
change can cause desertification but the process of desertification alters the
local climate as well by providing feedback (Sivakumar 2007). These
feedbacks can change the carbon cycle, and hence the level of atmospheric
CO2. They can alter the surface energy and water budgets and so directly
impacting the local climate. Desertification causes increasing surface albedo
especially in arid regions. This impacts the local climate, decreasing surface
temperature and precipitation, and gives positive feedback on the albedo in
desert regions worldwide.
4.6 AGRICULTURE
Agricultural lands account for about 40-50% of the Earth’s land surface.
Agricultural land occupied 5023 Mha in 2002 and over last four decades, it
gained about 500 Mha from other land uses. Agriculture sector plays a
significant role in emitting global warming gases like CO2, CH4, and N2O to
the atmosphere. CO2 emissions from agricultural soils are included in the
land use, land use change and forestry sector in national GHG inventories.
Agricultural lands generate very large CO2 fluxes both in terms of
sequestration and emission to the atmosphere, but the net flux is small.
Globally, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions have increased by nearly 17%
from 1990 to 2005, an average annual emission increase of about 60 MtCO2-
eq/year (IPCC, 2018). India is the third highest greenhouse gas emitter after
China and the United States from agriculture and animal husbandry. Indian
agriculture sector contributes about 18% of gross national emissions after
energy and industry.
4.6.1 Emissions
CO2 emission takes place mainly through microbial decay, and burning of
crop residues whereas soil carbon gets sequestered through the process of
photosynthesis in which CO2 is taken up from the atmosphere and stored in
the soil carbon pool as soil organic carbon. Plant residues like dropped
leaves; twigs etc. as organic matter, through microbial action slowly gets
decomposed and makes nutrients available to plants and also releases CO2
into the atmosphere. Burning of crop residues becomes one of the important
sources of pollution in north-India. India, generated more than 488 Mt of total
crop residue in the recent past and more than 25% of crop residues is burnt in
field only. In spite of emission of black carbon (BC), particulate matter, CO2
etc. and related implications upon human health, local weather condition and
75
Introduction to
Global Climate environment at large this is yet in practice by farmers of northern India to
Change make field ready for the next crop without much investing on manual
labourers. Metropolitan city like Delhi being close to agricultural states
experiencing severe smog (smoke+ fog) in recent years during month of
October. Many campaigns have been taken up by the government as well as
the social sector to educate the farmers to convert crop residues into manure
or safer alternates. As regards methane emissions, it is produced as a result
of anaerobic decomposition of organic materials, notably from stored
manures and from rice grown under water stagnant conditions, etc. N2O gets
generated by the microbial transformation of nitrogen present in soils and
excess of nitrogen (N) present in the manures which is unutilized by the
plants under high soil moisture condition. Agricultural N2O emissions are
projected to increase by 35-60% up to 2030 due to increased nitrogen
fertilizer use and increased animal manure production (FAO, 2003).
4.6.2 Mitigation Technologies and Practices

Loss of carbon to the atmosphere is ever increasing as a result of increase in
pressure on the limited crop fields. There are other factors like deforestation,
biodiversity loss, accelerated soil erosion, loss of soil organic matter at a
faster rate, salinisation of soils, coastal water pollution and acidification of
the oceans and land use changes are also contributing significantly to climate
change. Following are list of practices to be followed to curtail the emission
from this sector are cropland management; grazing land management;
management of organic soils; restoration of degraded lands; manure/bio-solid
management and bio-energy production. Smith et al., 2007 estimated that a
global potential mitigation of 770 MtCO2-eq/year by 2030 can be achieved
from improving energy efficiency in this sector alone.
Box 4.1: Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture
“The total GHG emissions due to anthropogenic action is about 49

gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year (GtCO2-eq/yr) (IPCC 2014a). The
agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)sector contributes about
10–12 gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year. GHGs from agriculture are
mainly due to land use and land use changes and forestry related activities,
enteric fermentation in ruminants, biomass and biofuel burning, lowland
paddy cultivation, and use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (Lipper et al.
2014; Smith et al. 2014). On account of land use and land use changes like
deforestation and degradation, CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere and the
atmospheric CO2 is sequestered by land use activities such as afforestation,
and reforestation. Global net CO2 emissions due to land use change from
2000-2009 is estimated at 1.1 + 0.8 Pg C yr–1 (Ciais et al. 2013).Increase in
atmospheric methane is mainly due to anthropogenic emissions.
Anthropogenic biogenic emissions of methane is important as it is increasing
due to the human activities like low land paddy cultivation, rearing of
ruminants, man-made lakes and waste management including the emissions
76
from landfills. Ruminants like cattle, sheep, goats, etc. produce CH4 due to Atmosphere and
food fermentation occurring in their anoxic rumen environment.Increase in Climate
atmospheric concentration of N2O after 1950’s is mainly due to agricultural

intensification which involves extensive use of synthetic N fertilizers and
manure application (Matson et al.1997). Soil microbial processes like
nitrification and denitrification are squarely responsible for increased
atmospheric N2O concentration. N2O emissions from soil processes may
increase on account of growing food demand and dependency of modern
agriculture on external inputs like nitrogenous chemical fertilizers (IPCC
2014a, b, c)”.
Source: Venkatramanan and Shah 2019
4.7 LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT

Livestock, mainly ruminants such as cattle and sheep are contributing about
one-third of global anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH4). The CH4 is
produced primarily by enteric fermentation. All livestock generate N2O
emissions from manure as a result of excretion of N in urine and faeces. N2O
emissions from soils and CH4 from enteric fermentation constitute the largest
sources, 38% and 32% of total non-CO2 emissions from agriculture in 2005,
respectively (EPA, 2006). CH4 and N2O emissions from this sector can be
minimized by improved feeding practices, use of dietary additives; and
longer term management changes and animal breeding. CH4 emissions can be
reduced by replacing forages with concentrates. Optimizing protein intake
can reduce N excretion and N2O emissions as well. A wide range of specific
agents, like ionophores, antibiotics can reduce methane emissions. Use of
condensed tannins or essential oils has been proved as reducing methane
emissions. Increasing productivity through breeding and better management
practices, such as a reduction in the number of replacement heifers, often
reduces methane output per unit of animal product.
Animal manures can release significant amounts of N2O and CH4 during
storage, but the magnitude of these emissions varies. CH4 emissions from
manure stored in tanks can be reduced by cooling, use of solid covers,
mechanically separating solids from slurry, or by capturing the CH4 emitted.
The manures can also be digested anaerobically to maximize CH4 retrieval as
a renewable energy source. Handling manures in solid form (e.g.,
composting) rather than liquid form can suppress CH4 emissions, but may
increase N2O formation. Major transitions are required to exploit the large
potential for bioenergy. Improving agricultural efficiency in developing
countries is a key factor to reduce GHGs emission from this sector.
77
Introduction to
Global Climate 1) Write about the role of urbanization in causing climate change?
Change
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2) Write about the impacts of desertification?
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3) Write briefly the GHG emissions from agriculture and livestock sector?
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4.8 AEROSOLS
Aerosols are suspended solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between a
few nanometres and 10 μm. It may be generated due to natural processes like
volcanic eruption, mineral dusts from deserts, sea spray, vegetation, and wild
fire or anthropogenic mainly due to burning of fossil fuel and biomass
burning. Plants emit volatile organic gases that are precursors for secondary
aerosol formation.
4.8.1 Pathways and Radiative forcing

It is both the size and chemistry that influences the climate. Sulphate
aerosols scatter the incoming solar radiation whereas black carbon absorbs
the radiation. Sizes of aerosols decide the cloud microphysics and other
cloud properties. Ultrafine aerosols (<0.01µm) formed as a result of
nucleation of emitted precursor gases such as H2SO4, NH3, organic carbon
etc. act as cloud condensation nuclei and forms fine aerosols of 0.1 to 1 µm
in accumulation mode.
Aerosols in the accumulation mode are of most importance as these aerosols

78 can hydrate to diameters between 0.1 and 2 µm where their mass extinction
efficiency is largest. Accumulation mode aerosols not only have high Atmosphere and
scattering efficiency but also have the longest atmospheric lifetime. Since, Climate
smaller particles coagulate more quickly while nucleation to cloud drops or

impaction onto the surface removes larger particles efficiently through wet or
dry deposition. Accumulation mode aerosols form the majority of cloud
condensation nuclei (CCN). Hence, anthropogenic aerosol perturbations such
as sulphur emissions have the greatest climate impact when, as is often the
case, they produce or affect accumulation mode aerosols. Aerosols affect the
number concentration of cloud drops, thus the brightness (albedo) of clouds
gets altered. Aerosols may alter cloud lifetime as lesser number of
precipitation drops formed which increases the liquid water path. Thus,
aerosols reduce the precipitation efficiency so attributes to indirect radiative
forcing. Where, it has direct radiative forcing effect as well by changing the
albedo. Black Carbon (BC) aerosols not only absorb incoming solar radiation
but also upon deposition on snow or ice-covered surfaces reduce
their albedo where sulphate aerosols just do opposite to it. Not only the
chemical composition but also size distribution attributes to the scattering of
light. Sub-micrometre aerosols scatter more light per unit mass and have a
longer atmospheric residence time than larger ones. The number of cloud
condensation nuclei per mass of aerosol also depends on the chemical
composition of aerosols as a function of size. Therefore, it is essential to
understand the processes that determine these properties.
4.8.2 Life time

Life time of aerosol in the atmosphere depends upon emission, deposition
processes, and its rate of atmospheric transformation. Atmospheric
transformations include atmospheric chemical reactions and other physical
processes like secondary aerosol formation and growth of aerosol. Typical
residence time of aerosol particles ranges from few hours to about 2 weeks.
As a result of having low life time aerosols does not play much towards
radiative forcing.
4.8.3 Sources of Aerosols

4.8.3.1Primary Anthropogenic Aerosols as Industrial dust
Transportation, combustion of coal, metallurgical processes, cement
manufacturing units, and waste incineration are primary industrial sources
which produce primary particulate aerosols as industrial dust. Global dust
emission from industrial sources estimated more than 200 Tg/year.
4.8.3.2 Primary Anthropogenic Aerosols as Carbonaceous

aerosols
Carbonaceous aerosols consist of organic compounds and black carbon. Its
prime sources are biomass and fossil fuel burning, and the volatile organic
compounds (VOC) emitted by plants and other anthropogenic activities.
79
Introduction to
Global Climate Carbonaceous aerosols as a unit consist of compounds share a large but
Change highly variable fraction of the atmospheric aerosol. Biomass burning
produces the largest share of organic component in the sub-micron size
fraction of atmospheric aerosol. Presence of functional groups like carboxylic
(-HCOOH) and dicarboxylic acids in organics makes it water soluble and so
acts as cloud droplet nucleation as well. Hence organics also takes part in
indirect radiative forcing.
Second important part of carbonaceous aerosols is Black carbon (BC) which

is formed during the incomplete combustion of carbon-based (fossil)
fuels. Though the life time of BC is about a week but yet these aerosols play
a crucial role in the climate change through absorption of solar radiation,
interaction with clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. Per unit of
mass, black carbon has a warming impact on climate that is 460-1,500 times
stronger than CO2. BC, suspended in the atmosphere contributes to warming
by trapping heat by converting incoming solar radiation to heat. It also
influences cloud formation and impacts regional circulation and rainfall
patterns. BC alone is estimated to be contributing about 15% of the current
excessive warming of global temperatures.
4.8.3.3 Nitrates Aerosol and its Radiative effects

Nitrates aerosols are formed as a result of conversion of NO2 to HNO3
mainly in the gas phase. HNO3 further reacts with NH3 to form ammonium
nitrate. Primary anthropogenic sources of this aerosol are combustion of
fossil fuel, from synthetic fertilizers, biomass burning, and natural processes
like lighting, as well. Whereas NH3 gets released from number of sources like
excreta from animals, synthetic fertilizers, oceans, biomass burning, crops,
human populations, soils, industrial processes and fossil fuels etc. Further,
NH3 reacts with sulphates and nitrates to form ammonium sulphate
(NH4)2SO4. Each sulphuric acid molecule (H2SO4) is looking for two
ammonia molecules and gets neutralized. But, in absence of enough
ammonia, H2SO4 exists either as H2SO4 (aq) or as NH4HSO4. Adams et al.
(1999) estimated the global nitrate (NO3−1) burden as of 0.17 Tg per annum.
Availability of nitrate is closely associated with the relative abundances of

ammonium and sulphate. Availability of ammonia in excess resulted into
neutralisation of sulphuric acid and hence resulted into lesser formation of
nitrate which is radiatively efficient aerosols. But, in the presence of
sulphuric acid containing aerosols, in the accumulation-mode, deposition of
nitric acid is greater on larger, alkaline mineral or salt particles. But coarse
mode particles are less efficient per unit mass at scattering light, so this
process reduces the radiative impact of nitrate.
4.8.3.4 Other important sources of primary aerosols

Other important sources of primary aerosols are soil dust and sea salt. But
Soil dust and sea salt are natural sources of aerosols. Sea salt aerosols are
80
generated especially by physical process like the bursting of entrained air Atmosphere and
bubbles during whitecap formation. It is the major contributor to both light Climate
scattering and cloud nuclei provided wind speeds are high and other aerosol
sources are insignificant. Since, it’s a very efficient Cloud Condensation
Nuclei (CCN), and so plays crucial role in indirect radiative effects. Even in
concentrations of 1 salt particle per litre, are able to modify cloud type
significantly, stratocumulus drizzle production and cloud albedo. Its size
roughly ranges from 0.05 to 10 µm diameter. As a result of presence of
submicron particles, it remains in atmosphere for longer time.
4.8.3.5 Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA)

Oxidation of atmospheric hydrocarbons released by plants as well from
household products like use of paints, disinfectants and solvents and
combustion of hydrocarbons like gasoline and diesel used in vehicles and
industries, open burning, emission from commercial shops, from distribution
and transportation of fuels etc. forms volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
that readily form aerosols. Because of low volatility it is formed by
conversion of gas-to-particle (solid) stage and so is called secondary organic
aerosol (SOA). SOA is present in the sub-micron size fraction. SOA
formation from biogenic precursors alone contributes to a constant aerosol
yield of 5% for all terpenes. Terpenes consists of a basic five-carbon isoprene
unit i.e., 2-methyl-1,3-butadiene (C5H8). Isoprene is the largest non-methane
VOC emission. Terpenes generally are composed of one, two, three, four, or
six isoprene units and are called hemiterpene (C5H8), monoterpenes (C10H16),
sesquiterpenes (C10H24), diterpenes (C20H32), and triterpenes (C30H48),
respectively. Terpenes may contain a variety of functional groups and it has
the half-life of 30 min to 4 h in the troposphere.
Burning of petroleum forms alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds like

benzene (C6H6) having one ring and its alkyl derivatives like toluene which is
methyl benzene (C7H8); two-ring structure, Naphthalene (C10H8) and it’s
methyl derivatives (C11H10) and ortho, meta and para-cresols (C7H8O), 3-
benzene ring structure, anthracene (C14H10) and phenanthrene (C14H10) which
in presence of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), oxides of sulphur (SO42-) and UV
ray undergo chemical photo-oxidation to form SOA tracers as a group of
aromatic VOCs like Phthalic acid (C8H6O4), phenolic acid (C6H6O3), benzene
tri carboxylic acid (C9H6O6). SOA emissions are expected to rise as a
consequence of human activities and increasing global temperatures (IPCC
2007). Presuming the low yields, anthropogenic SOA formation was earlier
thought to significant only in urban areas and recently even benzene has been
reported as important source particularly in the presence of low nitrogen
oxide concentrations.
81
Introduction to
Global Climate 4.8.3.6 Effects of aerosol at a glance!
Change
• Aerosol particles interact with solar radiation mainly through absorption
and scattering and, to some extent with terrestrial radiation through
absorption, scattering and emission.
• It can serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) upon
which cloud droplets and ice crystals form.
• It plays a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical

cycles in the Earth system, like, by carrying nutrients to ocean
ecosystems.
• Its quantity and properties are extremely variable in space and time.
• Aerosols of anthropogenic origin are responsible for a radiative forcing

(RF) of climate change through their interaction with radiation (direct
RF), and also as a result of their interaction with clouds (indirect RF).
• Indirect RF by aerosols perturb the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance

by modulation of cloud albedo and cloud amount.
• Indirect RF can be viewed as a series of processes linking various

intermediate variables such as aerosol mass, cloud condensation nuclei
(CCN) concentration, ice nuclei (IN) concentration, water phase
partitioning, cloud optical depth, etc., which connect emissions of
aerosols (or their precursors) to the top of the atmosphere radiative
forcing due to clouds.
• PM is made up of many different chemical components with different

physical properties, some of which lead to warming of temperatures
(example: black carbon) by absorbing heat from the sun, whilst others
(example: sulphates) bring about cooling effects by reflecting sunlight.
• Black carbon (BC) alone is estimated to be responsible for about 15 % of

the current excessive warming of global temperatures. Additionally,
short-term reductions in BC can potentially delay the impact of global
warming by 10 years.
• The RF from absorbing aerosol on snow and ice is assessed separately to

be +0.04 W m–2.
• The RF due to aerosol–radiation interactions is assessed to be –0.35 W

m–2.
• The RF via sulphate aerosol: –0.4 W m–2, black carbon (BC) aerosol:
+0.4 W m–2, and primary and secondary organic aerosol: –0.12 W m–2,
nitrate aerosol: –0.11 W m–2, and mineral dust: –0.1 W m–2 although the
latter may not be entirely of anthropogenic origin.
• This RF has a 2 to 4 times larger global mean surface temperature

82 change per unit forcing than a change in CO2.
4.9 LET US SUM UP Atmosphere and
Climate
Climate change is a cause of concern. During the past 150 years the amount
of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million
(ppm) to more than 400 ppm by burning of fossil fuels. Urbanization,
deforestation and desertification, agriculture and livestock activity have been
categorized as important sectors emitting greenhouse gases. In this unit, we
have discussed the role of urbanization, deforestation and desertification on
climate change. Also, we have discussed about the major greenhouse gases
emissions from agriculture and livestock sector.
4.10 KEY WORDS

Albedo: The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, often
expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo, the
albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation-covered surfaces and
oceans have a low albedo.
Greenhouse Gases: Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the

atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at
specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by
the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes
the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous
oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse
gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely
human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons
and other chlorine- and bromine containing substances.
Urban heat island (UHI): The relative warmth of a city compared with
surrounding rural areas, associated with changes in runoff, effects on heat
retention, and changes in surface albedo.
Deforestation: Conversion of forest to non-forest.

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1) Refer to section 4.3

86
Atmosphere and
Climate
BLOCK 2
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE – PAST AND
FUTURE CLIMATE
87
Introduction to
Global Climate BLOCK 2 INTRODUCTION
Change
Earth is a constantly changing planet since its formation around 4.6 billion
years ago and hence, its climate is also witnessing changes from time to time.
We can know about the present climate by studying the components of the
climate system. However, for understanding the current dynamics of climate
and predicting its future state, it is necessary to have an understanding of
present and past climate. In this block, the past and present climate have been
discussed through sources of past climatic conditions, climate change during
the Quaternary Period, and environmental indicators. With rising awareness
about climate change due to both natural and human-induced factors, it has
been projected that global warming would cause an increase in hot
temperature extremes and occasional lower temperature extremes on daily as
well as seasonal time scales. In this block, extreme weather events and future
climatic conditions based on Representative Concentration Pathways are
discussed.
Unit 5 "Account of Past Climate" deals with the climate of the past, sources
of past climatic conditions and changes in climate during the Quaternary
Period.
Unit 6 “Environmental Indicators and Instrumental Records” deals with the
significance of instrumental records and proxy climate indicators in climate
change studies.
Unit 7 "Climate Variability and Extreme Weather Events" deal with climate
variability and extreme weather events.
Unit 8 “Predicting Future Climates” deals with emission scenarios of
greenhouse gases.
OBJECTIVES
• describe the sources of palaeoclimate information;
• discuss climate change during the Quaternary Period;
indicators;
• elucidate the contributions of proxy climate indicators to decipher the
past climate;
• discuss the extreme weather events;
• explain the analogues from past climate;
• classify the different types of climate models; and
• explain the emission scenarios.
the past and future climate.
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UNIT 5 ACCOUNT OF PAST CLIMATE Atmosphere and
Climate
Structure
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Objectives
5.3 Palaeoclimate
5.4 Glimpse of Earth’s Climate through Ages
5.4.1 Climate during Precambrian
5.4.2 Climate during Phanerozoic

5.5 Sources of Palaeoclimatic Data
5.5.1 Historical Data
5.5.2 Archaeological Data

5.5.2.1 Rock layers, Minerals and Soil data
5.5.2.2 Plant and Animal remains
5.5.2.3 Artifacts
5.5.3 Geological record
5.5.3.1 Sedimentary rock types
5.5.3.2 Fossils
5.5.3.3 Ice Cores
5.5.3.4 Cave Deposits

5.6 Climate of the Quaternary Period
5.6.1 Pleistocene
5.6.2 Holocene
5.7 Let Us Sum Up
5.8 Key Words
5.1 INTRODUCTION
You know that climate is average weather, over a long period of time that
covers a large area, even the whole planet. The weather represents hour to
hour or day to day state of the atmosphere over a particular area. The
atmosphere, ocean, snow and ice cover, land surface, rotation and revolution
of earth, incoming solar radiation and biota are principal components of the
climate and their interaction forms a system termed as climate system. You
have already read about weather, climate and climate system while studying
Unit 1 to 4 of the course. In fact, it is the climate system, which makes our
planet Earth a habitable entity in the Universe.
89
Introduction to
Global Climate The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal
Change dynamics like volcanic eruptions and due to changes in the external factors
such as solar radiation and atmospheric composition. It is one of the oldest
systems of the earth that has significantly contributed to the origin and
evolution of life through ages. Earth is a constantly changing planet since its
formation of around 4.6 billion years ago and hence, its climate is also
witnessing the changes from time to time. We can know about the present
climate by studying the components climate system. However, for
understanding the current dynamics of climate and predicting its future state,
it is necessary to have an understanding of present and past climate. In this
unit, we will discuss the climate of the past, sources of past climatic
conditions and changes in climate during Quaternary Period, when humans
appeared as a dominant biotic element on the earth.
5.2 OBJECTIVES
• define palaeoclimate;
• differentiate between climate and palaeoclimate;
• describe the sources of palaeoclimate information; and
• discuss climate change during the Quaternary Period.
5.3 PALAEOCLIMATE
The term palaeoclimate refers to the climate of the past. As we have already
stated in previous units that the science of studying the modern climate is
termed as climatology. Similarly, the science dealing with the study of past
climate is known as palaeoclimatology. The word palaeoclimatology is a
combination of the Greek words “Palaios” - (ancient) + “clima”- (climate) +
“ology” - (branch of learning) and therefore it refers to the study of the past
climate. The scientists who study the past climate are known as
palaeoclimatologists. They use natural environmental evidences or their
proxies present on the earth’s surface such as sediments, sedimentary layers,
fossils (coral and tree growth rings), ice cores and radiocarbon to infer the
climate of the past prior to the availability of recorded instrumental data of
climate.
You may be surprised to know that changes in climate is neither unusual nor
a new phenomenon. It is a natural process and Earth has already witnessed
several cycles of climate change since its origin. Before discussing the earth’s
past climate, let us familiarise with the geologic time scale. Like the divisions
of our time into years, months, weeks, days, hours, minutes and seconds; the
geological time, covering entire span of Earth, is also divided into certain
geologic time-units such as eon, era, period, epoch and age (Table 5.1). The
duration of a particular time unit of the scale is determined by dating of rocks
90 using radioactive methods. The boundary between two time units largely
corresponds to sudden biotic events like origination or extinction of certain Atmosphere and
species. Climate
Table 5.1: Summary of the geological time scale showing main time units
Eon Era Period Epoch Time

interva
l in
million
years
(Ma)
Cenozoic Quaternary Holocene 0.012
to
present
Pleistocene 2.58 to
0.012
Neogene Pliocene 5.333
to 2.58
Miocene 23.03
to
5.333
Palaeogene Oligocene 33.9 to
23.03
Eocene 56 to
33.9
Palaeocene 66 to
56
Phanerozoic
Mesozoic Cretaceous 145 to
66
Jurassic 201.3
to 145
Triassic 251.9
to
201.3
Palaeozoic Permian 298.9
to
251.9
Carboniferou 358.9
s to
298.9
Devonian 419.2
to
358.9 91
Introduction to
Global Climate Silurian 445.2
Change to
419.2
Ordovician 485.4
to
445.2
Cambrian 541 to
485.4
Proterozo Neoproterozoi 1000 to
ic c 541
Mesoproterozo 1600 to
ic 1000
Palaeoproteroz 2500 to
oic 1600
Archaean Neoarchaean 2800 to
2500
Mesoarchaean 3200 to
2800
Palaeoarchaea 3600 to
n 3200
Eoarchaean 4000 to
Precambrian
3600
Hadean ------ 4600 to
4000
5.4 GLIMPSE OF EARTH’S CLIMATE

THROUGH AGES
The rock record of the earth contains numerous clues of the past climate
which shows that climate of the living planet earth is not uniform throughout
its history, since time of origin nearly 4.6 billion years ago to present. As
discussed before, fossils (tree rings, plant leaves, pollens and coral skeletons),
ice cores, sedimentary layers and sediments are main substances containing
proxy data for palaeoclimate. Further, the study of this proxy data also
reveals that past climate of the earth had often altered by solar intensity,
volcanic eruptions, lithospheric plate motion, weathering reactions as well as
fluctuations of greenhouse gases and temperatures. Additionally, the changes
in oceanic circulation patterns, cyclic variations in Earth’s orbit around the
Sun, extra-terrestrial (meteorite) impacts and biologic evolution also
influenced Earth’s past climate. It may be noted that the past climate of the
earth is defined in term of non-glacial (infra- and inter-glacial) and glacial
periods. Let us discuss the climate during Precambrian and Phanerozoic
92 times.
5.4.1 Climate during Precambrian Atmosphere and
Climate
During the Precambrian time (4.6 billion years to 540 million years ago),
Earth’s climate was warm and concentration of greenhouse gases like carbon
dioxide, methane and water vapour were very high. The concentration of
carbon dioxide was more than 18 times than its present levels and methane
was above 1000 ppm. The oxygen was not present in the early atmosphere.
After millions of years of the formation of the earth, temperature came down
to certain degrees and water vapour of early atmosphere produced rains. As a
consequence, the earth was provided with basic necessities such as soil, water
and air for origination of life. It was around 3.5 billion years ago, the early
forms of life such as cyanobacteria made their first appearance on the surface
of the earth. These bacteria made their own food by using sun energy as a
source of energy and released oxygen as a by-product of photosynthesis
process. As a consequence, around 600 million years ago, enough oxygen
was present in the atmosphere that led to development of multi-cellular
organisms. The non-glacial and glacial stages have been recorded in
Precambrian history of the Earth. The evidence consisting of sedimentary
rocks formed by glaciers show that Earth was very cold possibly near to
freezing point, during the latter part of the Precambrian times (Ruddiman,
2018). Four ice ages are known from the Precambrian: first ice age occurred
in the Archaean eon around 2500 million years ago and three ice ages in the
Proterozoic eon between 900 and 600 million years ago (Barry and Chorley,
2010).
5.4.2 Climate during Phanerozoic

In the Phanerozoic eon (540 to 0 million years ago), the concentration of
carbon dioxide fluctuated greatly and decreased from 6000 ppm to reach its
current levels. The carbon cycle greatly shaped the Phanerozoic climate and
as a result diverse variation occurred in multi-cellular organisms and land
plants (Beerling and Berner, 2005). It is noted that the climate shifted
frequently between icehouse (glacial and non-glacial) and greenhouse
conditions and temperatures greatly influenced by the natural processes
including breaking and re-union of continental landmasses as well as extra-
terrestrial impacts during the Phanerozoic time. The five great mass
extinctions such as End Ordovician, End Devonian Permian/Triassic
boundary, End Triassic and Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary had been recorded
in the Phanerozoic history of life. All these mass extinctions are directly
related to the wide spread changes to the past climate. Mass extinction is a
phenomena where sudden and permanent loss of large number of species or
groups of organisms on earth’s surface. Three major ice ages are documented
from the Phanerozoic eon, which occurred in the Ordovician period, during
Carboniferous-Permian periods and Late Cenozoic era (Barry and Chorley,
2010).
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Introduction to
Global Climate 5.5 SOURCES OF PALAEOCLIMATIC DATA
Change
It must be noted that for studying modern climate, the climatologists (also
known as climate scientists) can get a century old data. Can you think this
data is sufficient to know the climate of the whole Earth, which is nearly 4.6
billion years old before present? The answer is certainly not. Therefore, the
palaeoclimatologists used climate archives or proxies to unravel the past
climate of the earth. The climate archives comprise earth’s material and old
documented records (e.g., historical records) that hold physical characteristics
of the past environment. While studying climate archives, the climate of the
past can be reconstructed. The main types of climate archives are:
• Historical data
• Archaeological data
• Geological record
5.5.1 Historical Data

It represents first source of information for reconstructing the past climate. It
consists of documentary data. The logs of the farmers’, diaries of travellers’,
ancient inscriptions, newspapers, paintings, artistic depictions, reports of the
early weather observers and other public records are the sources of historical
data. Apart from these, the legal document, written account, tax, economic
and pictorial records containing information about land uses, landscape,
societal collapse, construction material and biodiversity also provide
important clues for reconstructing past/ancient climate. Additionally, any
records consisting of information on the timings of forests and flowering of
trees, occurrences of snowfall, rainfall, drought, famine and flood as well as
migration of birds are also parts of historical data. Historical data provide
both qualitative and quantitative information of the past climate. This data
provide climatic information of the events recorded by the humans, for
example, the Mesopotamian civilization of the Middle East, was considered
to be the one of first civilizations to record events.
5.5.2 Archaeological data

Archaeology deals with the study of the past human cultures. It focuses on
how people lived, worked, traded and moved in the past. The specialists of
archaeology are known as archaeologists. They use archaeological data to
know how the life style of prehistoric human is influenced by the climatic
conditions. It is to be noted that archaeological data is considerable older than
that of historical data, because archaeological data comprise a time of ancient
cultures that are reconstructed on the basis of scientific analyses of numerous
soil layers preserving human artifacts. In other words, archaeological time is
based on the remains of human life and hence, not based on the record kept
by humans as in the case of historical data (Krebs, 2007). An archaeological
site is a place, where the evidences of past human activity are preserved and
94
such evidences are a useful source of cultural and non-cultural (also Atmosphere and
described as environmental conditions) information, which together Climate
constitute the archaeological data (Reitz et al., 2008). The branch of

archaeology dealing with the reconstruction of the past environment
including climate is known as environmental archaeology. The following
kinds of data, which may be useful of Palaeoclimatic study, are recovered
from an archaeological site:
5.5.2.1 Rock layers, Minerals and Soil data

The chemical, physical and geological characteristics of rock layer, mineral
and soil samples from any site provide many clues of the past climate. The
grain-size analyses of sediment layers help to know the medium (wind,
water, floods or glaciers) of their deposition and thus, useful to reconstruct
the past climatic condition. The sequence of sediment layers of near shore
archaeological sites give information of the sea level changes as they contain
distinct layers of sediments deposited under marine to freshwater conditions.
5.5.2.2 Plant and Animal remains

The plant remains comprise any type of plant materials like wood, mature
seeds, pollen, spores, fruits, flowers, leaves, stems, roots, bark, epidermis,
fibers, stomata, starch grains, phytoliths, resins, lignin and lipids associated
with any site. The animal remains comprise bones and teeth of mammals, fish
skeletal remains and shells of invertebrates (molluscs, echinoderms,
crustaceans, insects, foraminifers and protozoans). As we know that plant and
animal life are largely controlled by climatic conditions, as a consequence,
their remains will help us to known their food source and to reconstruct the
climatic and environmental conditions of the past. The carbon, nitrogen and
oxygen isotopic analyses of bone and shell remains give information about
palaeodiets (terrestrial/aquatic), palaeotemperature (i.e. temperature of past)
and seasonal patterns. The existence of mammoth (elephant) remains
consisting of skins and bones clearly specify a cold climate. The presence of
floral remains largely consisting of bouquets of wild flowers in the burial
sites provides information about climate conditions prevailed at the time the
society lived there. The sudden natural burial of a site preserving prehistoric
humans and domesticated animals may have pointing towards the flooding
phenomenon, which is related with rainfall and yield important clues of the
past climate.
5.5.2.3 Artifacts
These are objects created, modified and used by humans. The various forms
of pottery (intact or broken), tools made of stone, wood, bone and metal
(arrow-heads, mace-heads and spears), decorative objects (jewellery and
figurines or statuettes) and personal objects (clothing) constitute artifacts. It
is considered that prehistoric humans used nearby available material for
creating or manufacturing the artifacts. Thus, their study shed light on the 95
Introduction to
Global Climate past climate. For example, the presence of broken, blacked and burned clay
Change pots in association with ash layers in an archaeological site is an indicative of
the warm climate.
5.5.3 Geological Record

Geology is the science that deals with the study of the earth with reference to
its origin, evolution, age, structure, composition and processes operating on it
since its formation (about 4.6 billion years ago). The scientists who study the
earth’s materials are known as geologists. The earth’s material consisting of
different types of rocks (igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic), fossils,
sediments and soils that are available to them (geologists) for study. This
material is also termed as rock record and yields many proxies or indirect
evidences to reconstruct the timeline of the earth’s climate during the
geological past. It may be noted that the geological record is much older than
that of historical and archaeological data. The 4.6 billion years long history of
earth witnessed numerous intervals of short and long term climatic
fluctuations, which left many climatic proxies or natural archives preserved
in the rock record. Some of the most important natural archives are
sedimentary rock types, fossils, and ice core and cave deposits.
5.5.3.1 Sedimentary rock types

The sedimentary rocks are formed by the slow processes of deposition of
sediments carried by rivers and streams into oceans and other water bodies
(e.g., rivers or lakes) and after millions of years, the soft sediment got
consolidated into stratified (layered) hard rocks. These rock bodies constitute
the sedimentary rocks. Many climatically sensitive sedimentary rock types
provide natural climatic archives as described below:
• Glacial features:
Some glacial features like striae, tillites and moraines are easily recognised in
the field and serve as useful climate archive for cold, glacial climate of high
latitudes and elevations. As the glacier moves, it erodes/breaks rocks lying at
its base and transports them in the direction of flow, leaving behind deep
scratches in the underlying rocks, which are made by rock fragments carried
by glaciers and are termed as glacier striae. As the glacier advances, it drops
a mixture of sediments consisting of boulders, pebbles, sand and mud, which
later get settled by melt water of the glaciers and this heterogeneous mixture
is known as till and when it lithified is known as tillites. As glaciers further
advances, they form ridge-like deposits composed of unsorted mixture of fine
rock particles to great boulders derived from the glacier are known as
moraines. The drumlins, kames and eskers are other glacier features that also
provide Palaeoclimatic information.
• Rock-types
96
Some specific sedimentary rocks such as calcretes,which represent calcium
carbonate accumulations, form due to the near surface evaporation of Atmosphere and
groundwater and evaporates (composed of rock salt also known as halite and Climate
gypsum) formed by evaporation of surface water can help to identify mid to

low latitudes regions with arid, dry and warm climates. The sandstone
resulted by lithification of desert dunes, is characterised by large scale cross-
bedding tells us about desert likes condition and wind direction. The varves
are lake deposits, consisting of alternating layers of coarse and fine grained
sediments that have deposited in lakes. The lake receives coarse-grained
sediments at the time when sediment supply is high possibly in summer
season and fine-grained when sediment supply is low in winter season.
Therefore, alternating coarse and fine grained layering of sediments are
considered to be associated with cyclic seasonal variation. The limestone
(carbonate) rocks rich in coral remains indicate warm water (tropical ocean)
having temperature ranging from 21 to 29°C. The coal-bearing sedimentary
rocks are indicative of humid tropical settings. Laterites are brownish to red
nodular soils rich in iron, aluminum and manganese usually formed in hot
and wet tropical climatic regions experiencing high rainfall.
5.5.3.2 Fossils
These are remains of the ancient life preserved in the sedimentary rocks. As
we know that some organisms particularly animals and plants are highly
dependent on environmental conditions and many of them are narrowly
adapted to specific climatic conditions. As a consequence, their fossils
provide valuable clues to know the climate of the past. The fossils of reptiles
(e.g.,lizards or snakes) are good indicators of a warm climate because they
cannot live in cold climate as their body is not able to maintain constant
warm temperatures. The fossils of plant cycads indicate tropical and
subtropical ancient climate because modern cycads occur in these climatic
zones. The margins of plant leaf are excellent indicators of past climate, for
example, fossil leaf with smooth margins are good indicators of tropical
climate whereas leaf with toothed or lobed margins indicates cold climate.
The study of growth rings in trees and corals tell us about past seasonal
variation. The trunk of a tree and skeleton of a sea coral contain numerous
almost circular growth rings. In each season, a new ring adds and preserves
weather conditions of the particular season. As they grow, many rings are
added, which reflects season history of the area during the period of a tree or
coral growth. The study of growth rings in a tree for inferring climate is
known as dendroclimatology. The study of coral’s growth rings is termed as
coral clock. Based on growth rings of corals it is inferred that Earth’s rate of
rotation is decreasing slowly from ancient times due to the gravitation pull of
the moon.
5.5.3.3 Ice Cores

They include cores of ice obtained from perennially cold areas where no or
little melting occurs such as the Polar Regions, northern Greenland, high 97
Introduction to
Global Climate mountains of the Andes and the Himalaya by drilling glaciers and ice sheets.
Change The ice cores obtained by drilling are used to study air bubbles, water and
material trapped in them such as ancient atmospheric oxygen, hydrogen,
carbon dioxide as well as dust and ash particles by various methods. Ice cores
are useful source of past climate data of thousands of years ago.
5.5.3.4 Cave Deposits

These are calcium carbonate deposits consisting of speleothems (stalagmites,
stalactites and flowstones) formed in a limestone cave and are a potential
indicator of non-glacial terrestrial climate. The speleothems are secondary
mineral deposits formed from groundwater within underground caverns. The
speleothems possesses different types of annual laminas and preserve the
seasonality. The oxygen and carbon stable isotopic analyses of each laminae
tell us about the past rainfall, vegetation and other climatic factors. Cave
deposits provide Palaeoclimatic evidences of around 30,000 years before
present.
The reconstruction of the past climate involves the understanding and study
of natural archives and the methods employed in their analysis. So, it is not
necessary that our interpretation of proxy data is not always accurate. We
should be aware about present day climatic relationships of various
geological climate proxies and it will help us to overcome the difficulties
associated with each climate proxy described above while inferring climatic
information of the past.
1) What is palaeoclimate?
……………………………………………………………………………
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2) Which type of palaeoclimate does tillites indicate?
……………………………………………………………………………
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……………………………………………………………………………
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3) Fossil leaf with smooth margins indicates ----------- palaeoclimate. Atmosphere and
Climate
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
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5.6 CLIMATE OF THE QUATERNARY PERIOD

The Quaternary is the youngest period of the Cenozoic era and is divided into
two epochs such as Pleistocene and Holocene (Table 5.1). It is a period of
greater climate changes since the past 60 million years (Bradley, 2015). The
climatic history of Earth since 2.58 million years ago to present is very
dynamic because the large portion of the earth’s surface particularly Northern
Hemisphere, parts of Antarctica and high mountainous regions, repeatedly
witnessed widespread glaciations. Therefore, this period is referred to as “the
Great Ice Age”. This age is not over yet, in fact, we are living in the inter-
glacial (warm) stage of this age. The oxygen and carbon isotope ratios,
growth rings in trees, cave and glacial features, lakes and dune deposits,
microfossils, pollen grains and ice cores are climate proxies that are
commonly utilised to reconstruct the climate of the Quaternary period.
5.6.1 Pleistocene
The Pleistocene epoch starts from 2.58 million years ago and ends at 11,700
years ago. Commonly, Epoch is a subdivision or time-unit of the geological
time scale. The study of various climate proxies of the Pleistocene epoch
clearly shows that it was a time of radical climate changes and emergence of
humans (http://content.inflibnet.ac.in). At the close of the Pliocene and the
beginning of the Pleistocene, there was shift in global climate at around 2.5
million years ago, as a consequence, climate became cooler and the genus
Homo (i.e. humans) evolved from australopithecine ( ape- and human-like
primates) ancestors in response to climate change. In addition, the beginning
of the Pleistocene is also marked by the first appearance of other mammalian
genera: Bos (bovid), Elephas (elephant) and Equus (horse) (Mathur, 2005).
The climate of the Pleistocene is characterised by an orderly sequence of
inter-glacial–glacial–inter-glacial periods. During this epoch, the cold climate
intensified, which led to the development of extensive ice sheets and
mountain glaciers in high latitude and high altitude regions of the earth. It
includes larger part of the Northern Hemisphere (USA, Canada, Greenland,
Europe, Asia and northern Russia), Antarctica, South America and
mountainous areas of the Rockies, Alps, Himalaya, Kilimanjaro and Mount
Kenya. The maximum Pleistocene glaciations occurred in the Northern
Hemisphere. Therefore, the massive ice sheets covering the parts of Eastern
North America, Western North America, and Northern Europe are termed as 99
Introduction to
Global Climate the Laurentide ice sheet, Cordilleran ice sheet and Scandinavian ice sheet,
Change respectively. It is interesting to note that during the Pleistocene epoch nearly
30% area of the earth’s surface was covered by the ice sheets and glaciers,
and around 20 alternate cycles of glacial–inter-glacial stages have been
documented. The cold interval when glaciers are very extensive is known as
glacial stage, and warm and dry interval between two intervening glacial
stages when glaciers are less extensive is termed as inter-glacial stage.
In the Pleistocene, the tropical regions received maximum rainfall and

experienced humid climate. The period of maximum rainfall is known as
pluvial period and intervening period of dry climate between two successive
pluvial periods is described as inter-pluvial period. The pluvial periods as
stated above experienced maximum rainfall, caused the flooding in the rivers
and streams and formed extensive flood plain deposits consisting of layers of
sand, silt and gravel. It is observed that glacial–inter-glacial and pluvial–
inter-pluvial intervals are interrelated. The deciduous and coniferous forests
were more common during the warm period; however, grasses, lichens and
mosses dominated land during the winter period.
Geologically, the Pleistocene epoch has been classified into three

subdivisions: Lower, Middle and Upper. And, each of these subdivisions had
experienced episodes of glacial–inter-glacial. Four glacial and three inter-
glacial stages have been documented in the Pleistocene (Table 5.2).
Table 5.2: Glacial–inter-glacial periods of the Pleistocene
Epoch Glacial–inter-glacial stage

Europe North America
Holocene Inter-glacial Inter-glacial
Upper Wurm Glaciation Wisconsinan Glaciation
(12,600 to Riss-Wurm inter- Sangamonian inter-
11,700 years ago glacial glacial
Riss Glaciation Illionian Glaciation
Middle Mindel-Riss inter- Yarmouthian inter-
(78,100 to glacial glacial
12,600 years Mindel Glaciation Kansan Glaciation
ago)
Gunz-Mindel inter- Aftonian inter-glacial
glacial
Lower Gunz Glaciation Nebraskan Glaciation
Pleistocene
(2.58 million to
78,100 years
ago)
Pliocene
100
The four pluvial periods such as Kageran, Kamasian, Kanjeran and Gamblian Atmosphere and
have been recorded from Africa and their occurrence were corresponding to Climate
the occurrences of Gunz, Mindel, Riss and Wurm European glacial stages.
Many mammalian fauna such as woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth,
Columbian mammoth, cave lion and rein deer adopted the cold climatic
conditions.
5.6.2 Holocene
The Holocene is the current or recent interval of the geologic time scale
(Table 5.1). It starts with the end of the last Pleistocene major glacial stage,
about 11,700 years before present and continues to the present day. It is
subdivided into three ages (Table 5.3). It is relatively a warm period during
which human influences had been significantly altered the Earth system
particularly its environment. Initially, humans altered Earth’s environment by
hunting, cutting down trees, farming (agriculture) and latterly, by establishing
civilisation, building towns and cities, industries with burning of fossil fuels,
extracting natural resources, and finally, by establishing huge networks of
transportation and communication systems (Stanley, 2009). It is noted that
humanity has broadly influenced the Holocene environment of earth,
therefore, it is sometimes also known as Anthropocene. The term
Anthropocene is an informal name and till date Holocene is a valid epoch.
Table 5.3: Holocene Time Scale
Period Epoch Age Duration in years

Meghalayan (Late) 4,200 to present
Holocene Northgrippian (Middle) 8,200 to 4,200
Quaternary
Greenlandian (Early) 11,700 to 8,200
Pleistocene Upper 12,600 to 11,700
The Anthropocene refers to ‘Age of Man’. In simple words, the

Anthropocene can be described as the geology of humanity, which focuses on
the cumulative role of humans as geologic and geomorphic agents in altering
the Earth’s environment by multiple ways such as through agriculture,
mining, industrialisation, urbanisation or globalisation. The word
Anthropocene was extensively used in the scientific literature of China
during the 1990s in informal way. In 2000, Paul Crutzen and Eugene
Stoermer formally presented Anthropocene and also discussed it in the
context of geological time scale. The Anthropocene is less popular concept as
compared to the global warming (Syvitski, 2012). The Anthropocene is still
an informal time unit and its beginning is still a matter of debate, but many
workers believe that it began with the Industrial Revolution in Europe around
1800 years before present (Zalasiewicz and others, 2019).
The Holocene epoch is very important for us because it shows how Earth’s
environment reached to its present form. It also experienced varied cycles of 101
Introduction to
Global Climate climate change (Table 5.3). It should be noted that radiocarbon dating
Change method (Carbon 14) with half-life 5,730 years serves as an excellent method
for dating Holocene sediments and organic remains. The Early Holocene
(11,700 to 8,200 years before present) was a time of global warming and
moist conditions prevailed in tropical dessert areas. About three episodes of
high sea level elevation were recorded during this interval based on remains
of reef-building sea corals. The dry interval of the Early Holocene is
described as Boreal period and wet as Atlantic period (Table 5.4). The
Middle Holocenewas a time of high warming and global temperature rose by
4° to 5° C. During this interval, Arabia and India experienced higher
monsoon circulation (Mathur, 2005). During the Early and Middle Holocene
between 9,000 and 6,000 years before present, many continental glaciers
disappeared. The dry and warm climate of the Middle Holocene is termed as
Subboreal environmental period (Table 5.4). The Late Holocene (4,200 years
before present to present) witnessed rapid warming and cooling intervals.
Between 1445 to 1700 AD, the Arctic region covered by ice and many
glaciers advanced which gave rise to Little Ice Age. The record shows that
climate is fluctuating in the Late Holocene. The wet and cool climate of Late
Holocene is named as Subatlantic environmental period.
Table 5.4: Holocene climate (modified after Mathur, 2005)
Epoch Glacial Environmental Age based Climate

stage period carbon 14
method (in years
before present)
Holocene Post Subatlantic 2,500 to 0 Wet and cool
glacial Subboreal 5,000 to 2,500 Dry and warm
Atlantic 8,000 to 5,000 Wet and warm
Boreal 10,000 to 8,000 Dry and warm
Pleistocene Late glacial
In nutshell, we live in the Holocene. This epoch possesses relatively high sea
level, minimal ice covers (which are still extensive in Polar Regions and high
elevation of the mountainous regions), mid-latitude deciduous forest and
huge expansion of human population (Bloom, 2009). The modern and
industrial society of humans have continuously been altering earth’s
environment by burning fossil fuels and adding high concentration of carbon
dioxide as a byproduct of fossil fuels combustion into the atmosphere. It is
altering the climate system and, thus, causing the global warming.
Note: a) Use the space given below for your answers.
b) Check your answers with those given at the end of the unit.
102
1) The Pleistocene epoch starts from ……… and ends at ………………. . Atmosphere and
Climate
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) List the four Pleistocene glacial and three inter-glacial stages of the
Europe.
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
5.7 LET US SUM UP

In this unit, you have learnt the following:
• Palaeoclimate is the science dealing with the study of past climate.
• Palaeoclimatologists used climate archives or proxies to unravel the past

climate of the Earth.
• Historical data, archaeological data and geological record are the main
climate archives
• The logs of the farmers’, dairies of travellers’, ancient inscriptions,

newspapers, paintings, artistic depictions, reports of the early weather
observers and other public records are the sources of historical data.
• Rock layers, minerals, soil, remains of plant and animal, and artifacts are
the main sources of archaeological data.
• The geological record consisting of sedimentary rock types (sandstones,

evaporates, calcretes, tillites), fossils, ice cores and cave deposits yield
clues of past climate.
• The Pleistocene epoch starts from 2.58 million years ago and ends at
11,700 years and it is period of extensive glaciations particularly in the
Northern Hemisphere, Antarctica, South America and mountainous areas
of the Rockies, Alps, Himalaya, Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya.
• Four glacial and three inter-glacial stages are known from the Europe
and North America during Pleistocene epoch.
• The Holocene is the epoch where we live. It starts with the end of the last
Pleistocene major glacial stage, about 11,700 years before present and 103
Introduction to
Global Climate continues to the present day.
Change
• The Holocene is relatively a warm period during which humans have
significantly altered the Earth’s environment.
• The “Anthropocene” refers to ‘Age of Man’ describes geology of

humanity and focuses on the cumulative role of humans as geologic and
geomorphic agents in altering the Earth’s environment by multiple ways.
5.8 KEY WORD

Proxy: A proxy climate indicator is a record that is interpreted, using
physical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination of climate
related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived in this way are
referred to as proxy data. Proxy data can be calibrated to provide quantitative
climate information.

READING/REFERENCES
Barry, R.G., Chorley, R.J., 2010. Atmosphere, Weather and Climate.
Routledge, New York, USA.
Beerling, D.J., Berner, R.A., 2005.Feedbacks and the coevolution of plants

and atmospheric CO2.Proceeding of National Academy of Sciences
USA.102: 302–1305.
Bloom, A.L., 2009.Geomorphology – A Systematic Analysis of Late

Cenozoic Landforms. Phi Learning Private Ltd., New Delhi.
Bradley, R. S., 2015. Paleoclimatology – Reconstructing Climates of the

Quaternary.Academic Press, UK.
Chapman, J.A., Drury, S.A., Wilson, C.L., 2000. The Great Ice Age: Climate
Change and Life. Routledge, London.
http://content.inflibnet.ac.in/data-server/eacharya-
documents/5717528c8ae36ce69422587d_INFIEP_304/86/ET/304-86-ET-
V1-S1__file1.pdf
Krebs, R.E., 2007. The Basics of Earth Science.Geenwood Press, Westport,

USA.
104
Mathur, U. B., 2005. Quaternary Geology – Indian Perspective.Geological Atmosphere and
Society of India, Bangalore. Climate
Narayana, A.C., 2002. Late Quaternary Geology of India and Sea Level
Changes.Memoir 49, Geological Society of India, Bangalore.
Reitz, E.J., Newsom, L.A., Scudder, S.J., Scarry, C.M., 2008. Introduction to
Environmental Archaeology. In: Case Studies in Environmental
Archaeology, Springer: 3-19 pp.
Ruddiman, W.F., 2008. Earth’s Climate – Past and Future.W H Freeman and
Company, New York, USA.
Stanley, S.M., 2009, Earth System History: W.H. Freeman and Company,
New York, USA.
Syvitski, J., 2012. Anthropocene: An epoch of our making. Global Change

78: 12-15.
Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C.N., Summerhayes, C.P., 2009. The Anthropocene

as a Geological Time Unit. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-
AnnexII_FINAL.pdf

Check Your Progress - I
1) The term palaeoclimate refers to the climate of the past. The science of
studying the modern climate is termed as climatology, similarly, the
science dealing with the studying of past climate is known as
palaeoclimatology. The word palaeoclimatology is a combination of the
Greek words “Palaios” - (ancient) + “clima”- (climate) + “ology” -
(branch of learning) and therefore it refers to the study of past climate.
2) Tillites are lithified glacial deposits and indicate a cold glacial climate.
3) Tropical
Check Your Progress-II
1) 2.58 million years ago; 11,700 years ago.
2) The four European glacial stages are the Gunz, Mindel, Riss and Wurm.
The three inter-glacial stages are the Gunz-Mindel, Mindel-Riss and
Riss-Wurm.
105
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT 6 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
AND INSTRUMENTAL RECORDS
Structure
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Objectives
6.3 Factors affecting the Earth's Climate System
6.3.1 Internal Forcing
6.3.2 External Forcing

6.3.2.1 Human Influences
6.3.2.2 Orbital Variations
6.3.2.3 Solar Output

6.3.2.4 Volcanism
6.3.2.5 Plate Tectonics
6.3.2.6 Other Mechanisms

6.4 The Measurement of Climate Change
6.4.1 Instrumental Records
6.4.2 Proxy Records

6.5 Annual Resolution Data from Proxy Record
6.5.1 Speleothems
6.5.2 Corals as Palaeoclimate Proxy

6.5.3 Dendrochronology
6.6 Centennial to Millennial Scale Data from Proxy Records
6.6.1 Palynology as a Proxy Record
6.6.2 Stable Isotopes
6.6.3 Biomarkers Analysis
6.6.4 Ancient DNA

6.7 Let Us Sum Up
6.8 Key Words
6.1 INTRODUCTION
Climate change is one of the serious issues being faced by humanity across
the globe. Climate change has a wide-range of effects on the environment,
socio-economic life influencing several sectors like water resources,
agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems,
106 biodiversity and coastal zones
(https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf). According to the Atmosphere and
published reports during the last 100 years Earth's average temperature has Climate
raised by more than 1.40F with much of this occurred during the last 35-40
years (NRC, 2012). There are ample evidences of such warming that brought
out unpredicted drought and anomalous rainfall, impacting the floral and
faunal diversity pattern in diversified geographical parts of world. The 4% -
12% variability of daily monsoon rainfall in India is expected to be with 10C
of warming. There is a chance of 13% - 50% change in variability which will
take place if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted unabated. Over the last
century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased from a pre-
industrial value of 278 parts per million to 379 parts per million in 2005
(NRC, 2011). As a result of global warming, with relatively small rise in the
average temperature, the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events,
such as tropical cyclones, droughts, floods and heavy precipitation events are
expected to increase.
Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to lead to flooding or drought

conditions. Melting of glaciers can result into flooding and soil erosion. A
shift in crop growing seasons is witnessed and expected at large scale with
rising temperatures which will pose great threat to food security and may
result in the widespread of diseases. With a 2° C rise in temperature, there is
a risk of loss of 30% of habit and habitats resulting into the extinction of
species especially in the coral reefs, boreal forests, Mediterranean region and
mountains. Increasing sea levels pose grave danger to the coastal life and
increase great risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines,
particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. A rise
in extreme events will have effects on health and lives as well as associated
environmental and economic impacts. Through this unit, you will be learning
various facets of environmental indicators and instrumental records.
6.2 OBJECTIVES
After studying this unit, you will be able to:

indicator; and
• elucidate the contributions of proxy climate indicator to decipher the past
climate.
6.3 FACTORS AFFECTING THE EARTH'S

CLIMATE SYSTEM
Climate induced changes have severely impacted various biotic and abiotic
components of ecosystem and thus, resulted into the altered nature of Earth's
climate system. Biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by the
Earth, long-term changes in the tilt of the Earth and its orbit around the sun,
plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions, human activities play a vital role in 107
Introduction to
Global Climate governing the Earth's climate system. According to the World Metrological
Change Department (WMD) climate is the average of weather conditions at a place
for at least a period of 30 years. A deviation in the mean standard of climate
for a longer period of time (i.e., millions of years) is called climate change.
Climate is a complex system of interactions between various components of
earth like atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface and biosphere
(IPCC 2007). There are several internal and external factors that influence
and affects the climate of the Earth. Thus, it becomes necessary to understand
these components, functioning and their influence in altering the climate
dynamics and behavioral analysis of these external and internal forcing to
understand the climate change at spatial and temporal scale.
Fig. 6.1. Factors affecting Earth's climate system

(source:https://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/climate-system/earth-climate-system/)
6.3.1 Internal forcing

Internal forcing are the natural processes that operate from within the climate
system like the ocean and atmospheric interactions and interaction among the
biotic (living) components. The ocean and atmosphere work together and
result in internal climate variability that lasts from years to decades. By
redistributing heat between the deep ocean and the atmosphere and altering
the cloud/water vapor, sea ice distribution, these circulations affect global
average surface temperature and the total energy budget of the earth. While
living components play a vital role in albedo, evapo-transpiration, cloud
formation, weathering, water and carbon cycle, etc.
6.3.2 External forcing

Anthropogenic impacts like increased emissions of greenhouse gases and
dust along with natural processes like changes in solar output, Earth's orbit,
volcano eruptions, etc. act as the external forces that affects the climate of the
Earth.
108
6.3.2.1 Human influences Atmosphere and
Climate
Human induced pressures in the form of agriculture, land clearance, shifting
cultivation, deforestation, urbanization and industrialization have resulted
into the irreversible changes like increase in the amount of greenhouse
gases, ozone depletion, production of methane, etc. and have badly impacted
the microclimate, and measures of climate variables
6.3.2.2 Orbital variations

Orbital variation plays a vital role in governing the climate system of Earth.
The shape of the Earth's orbit changes every 100,000 years, it varies from
being elliptical to nearly circular and then back. Slight variations in Earth's
motion led to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the
Earth's surface and its distribution across the globe. Milankovitch cycle (a
resultant of combination of Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of
Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis) is notable to
understand the past climate change and various climatic episodes of glacial
and interglacial cycles in geological past.
6.3.2.3 Solar output

The Sun is the ultimate source of most of the energy that drives the biological
and physical processes around us. Earth-Sun orbital relationship has a direct
impact on geographical distribution of the Sun’s energy over the Earth’s
surface. Other sources include geothermal energy from the Earth's core, tidal
energy from the Moon and heat from the decay of radioactive compounds.
Both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are evidenced to affect
global climate. Over the time-scale of millions of years, the change in solar
intensity is a critical factor influencing climate (Schroder et al. 2008).
Review of studies shows that solar output played an influential role in
triggering the geological events like Little Ice, marked by relative cooling
and greater glacier from 1550 to 1850 AD (Miles et al. 2004).
6.3.2.4 Volcanism
The volcanic eruptions that can inject over 100,000 tons of SO2 into
the stratosphere are considered to affect the Earth's climate (Wignall,
2001). Due to the optical properties of SO2 and sulfate aerosols, a global
layer of sulfuric acid haze is created which results in cooling conditions by
partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface for
several years (Graff et al. 1997). For instance, eruption of Mount Pinatubo in
1991, affected the climate substantially, and subsequently global
temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years (IPCC
2007). This resulted in reduction of surface temperatures in 1991–93 which is
equivalent to a reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter (AGU,
2011).
Volcanoes also contribute in the extended carbon cycle. A large amount of 109
Introduction to
Global Climate carbon dioxide is released for very long (geological) time period to
Change counteract the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon
dioxide sinks. A review of published studies indicates that annual volcanic
emissions of carbon dioxide, including amounts released from mid-ocean
ridges, volcanic arcs, and hot spot volcanoes, are only the equivalent of 3 to 5
days of human-caused output (Bruckschen et al., 1999; IPCC, 2007; AGU,
2011; AAS, 2017)
6.3.2.5 Plate tectonics

Over a wide range of timescale, horizontal and vertical displacements of
tectonic plates reconfigure global land and ocean areas and generate varying
topography which affect the global and local patterns of climate and
atmosphere-ocean circulation (Atri & Melott, 2014). There are several factors
associated with the role of plate tectonics in climate change like the position
and size of the continents, geometry of the oceans and patterns of ocean
circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer
of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global
climate. For example, formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million
years ago closed the direct mixing of Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This
strongly affected the ocean dynamics of Gulf Stream and may have led to
Northern Hemisphere ice cover (Sindbaek, 2007; Demenocal, 2001).
6.3.2.6 Other mechanisms

The Earth receives an influx of ionized particles known as cosmic rays from a
variety of external sources, including the Sun. There is a hypothesis that an
increase in the cosmic ray flux would increase the ionization in the
atmosphere, leading to greater cloud cover which in turn would cool the
surface.
6.4 THE MEASUREMENT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE
6.4.1 Instrumental records
A climate element, is any one of the various properties or conditions of the
atmosphere which together specify the physical state of the climate at a given
place, for a particular period of time (Linacre, 1992). To understand the
dynamics of climate change and associated events, it is necessary to have a
better understanding of the present scenario of climate by studying and
observing the factors controlling or contributing in climate change. In this
regard, multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary studies (oceanography,
meteorology, geomorphology, geology and pale climatology) give good
amount of quantitative and qualitative information. This information along
with the observational and instrumental records from diversified geographical
location contribute a lot in making predictive climatic models. Analysis of
110 instrumental records of common climate elements such as temperature,
precipitation (rain, snow and hail), humidity, wind, sunshine and atmospheric Atmosphere and
pressure taken together proved to be very useful to specify the physical state Climate
of the climate at a given place, for a certain period of time. Such records of
climate elements collected over time are known as "time series"
(enviropedia). Temperature data gives an insight into Earth’s surface and sea
surface temperature (SST). Precipitation data in the form of
rainfall, snowfall, etc. is yet another important factor that shows relative
climate variation, including humidity, water balance and water quality etc.
Vegetation studies pertaining to loss, increase or change in biomass reflect
the ecosystem change under varied climatic regimes. Sea level measurements
help in tracing the shore line fluctuation. Solar activity influence climate,
primarily through changes in the intensity of solar radiation. Volcanic
eruptions, like solar radiation, can alter climate due to the aerosols that are
emitted into the atmosphere and alter climate patterns. Chemical composition
of air or water can be measured by tracking levels of greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide and methane, and measuring ratios of oxygen isotopes.
Studies show that there is a strong correlation between the percent of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere and the Earth’s mean temperature.
But these available instrumental weather records are spanning for short time
period in most parts of the country and they do not provide benchmark
information to discriminate between natural and human-induced climatic
impact. Since climate, in general, shows high spatial and temporal variability,
long-term climate records from different geographic regions of the country
are required so that we can have a better insight into the climate change. In
this connection, high-resolution long-term proxy records are required. There
exists inconsistency in the amplitude of climate records derived from
different proxies therefore multi-proxy approach proved to be better because
the individual records could be cross-verified and robust climate
reconstructions can be derived. Such high-resolution proxy climate records
spanning centuries to millennia would be useful to understand the natural
course of climate, climate sensitivity to forcing, spatial variability, lead and
lag relationship, recurrence behavior of extreme climate events and their
ecological impact.
6.4.2 Proxy records

It is not possible for us to travel back in time to understand and measure
temperatures, rainfall and other environmental conditions. Thus, we need to
rely on various proxies from ancient geological materials to understand the
conditions locked up in. There are many such proxies like ice cores, tree
rings, sub-fossil pollen, boreholes, corals, lake, ocean sediments, and
Speleothems that proved to be very useful to mankind to understand the long
term vegetation and climate dynamics at spatial and temporal scale. Thus,
multi-proxy study is needed to resolve several issues related to present, past
and future directions in climate change studies.
111
Introduction to
Global Climate 6.5 ANNUAL RESOLUTION DATA FROM
Change
PROXY RECORD
Since the proxy records gives an indirect information about the past climate,
temperature, and rainfall, etc. each proxy responds variably to the changing
climatic scenario and thus record palaeoclimate data accordingly. The finer
the resolution of data the more information we gather from it. Among the
various proxies used in palaeoclimate studies, some of the proxies that give
annual resolution data includes Speleothems, corals and tree rings.
6.5.1 Speleothems
The word Speleothems is a Greek word ‘Spelaion’ meaning cave and ‘thema’
meaning deposit through flowing, dripping, or seeping water (Moore, 1952;
Schwarcz, 1986). Thus, they may be defined as the mineral deposits formed
in karstic caves, where the water table is significantly lowered, and favoring
air exchange with atmosphere. On the basis of competition between the
dynamics of the water and the crystal growth habits of the constituent
minerals, they attain different shapes viz. stalagmites and stalactites or
slablike deposits known as flowstones (Sasowsky, 2012). Stalactites are the
deposits which hang from the ceilings of caves, they often have a hollow
core, with growth occurring around the central orifice. On the other hand,
stalagmites are solid and grow incrementally at the drip site. They are
primarily composed of calcium carbonate, precipitated from groundwater that
has percolated through the adjacent carbonate host rock. The most commonly
occurring minerals are calcite, aragonite, and gypsum (Sasowsky, 2012).
Certain trace elements may also be present that often gives the deposit a
characteristic color. Deposition of a Speleothems results from evaporation of
water or degassing of carbon dioxide from water droplets.
Under the high seasonal climatic variations inside (humidity, CO2 partial
pressure, air ventilation) or outside (precipitation, temperature, snow melting)
the cave. For example, annual laminas are formed in the Speleothems
(Fairchild and Treble 2009, Bradley, 2015; Tan et al. 2006; Baker et al.
2008). Therefore, Speleothems have the potential to record past climate with
annual resolution.
Annual laminas in Speleothems: In Speleothems four types of laminas have

been reported.
1) Fluorescent laminas: They are observed by using conventional mercury

light-source UV reflected-light microscopy and confocal laser
fluorescent microscopy (Shopov et al. 1994; Orland et al. 2012)
2) Visible laminas: They are observed using conventional transmitted and

reflected-light microscopy (Genty and Quinif 1996)
3) Calcite-aragonite couplets: They show seasonal alternations of calcite

112 and aragonite growth layers (Railsback et al. 1994)
4) Geochemical laminas: It is defined by the annual variability of their Atmosphere and
chemical constituents such as stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) and trace Climate
elements (e.g., Mg, Sr, Ba) (Johnson et al. 2006).
The number of layers formed are counted in a Speleothems and are then
compared with the duration of growth measured independently by
radiometric dating techniques viz., 230Th dating is most commonly used for
the late Pleistocene samples (Baker et al. 1993; Tan et al. 2000), while with
210
Pb and 226Ra methods samples younger than 150 years can be dated
(Baskaran and Iliffe 1993; Condomines and Rihs 2006) or with the atomic
bomb testing 14C signature that characterizes the last 50 years (Genty et al.
1998; Mattey et al. 2008).
6.5.2 Corals as palaeoclimate proxy

Coral reefs have been a part of the Earth's oceans for millions of years and
are very sensitive to changes in climate. By extracting calcium carbonate
from the ocean waters, they form skeleton like structure. When the water
temperature changes, calcium carbonate densities in the skeletons also
change. Studies shows that the coral formed in the summer has a different
density than coral formed in the winter. This creates seasonal growth rings on
the coral (like rings on a tree). These rings are used to determine the
temperature of the water, and the season in which the coral grew and by
studying the growth bands, coral samples can be dated to an exact year and
season. The density of the coral skeleton, or how many minerals are present
in a piece of a certain size, changes with temperature.
ii) Check your answers with those given at the end of the unit
1) What are Speleothems?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) How coral act as palaeoclimate proxy?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
113
Introduction to
Global Climate 6.5.3 Dendrochronology (Tree rings study)
Change
Climate change during the past 1000 years is important to reconstruct as it
can be correlated with the historical archives and extent to which climate
affected civilizations can be deduced. Of the several proxies used for
paleoclimate (e.g., ice cores, lake sediments, corals and Speleothems)
reconstructions, tree rings have special advantages: they record seasonal
monsoonal variability, they preserve continuous record and can be easily
dated using ring-counting. An individual tree ring records contemporaneous
climate changes in the year of formation over the life-span of the tree. Cross
correlation and matching of ring patterns of different (dead, archived and
growing) trees of the same climate regime can extend the climate
reconstructions to past several thousands of years. Significant contributions
to climate science within the last decade have firmly established tree-rings as
valuable sources of proxy data for evaluating long-term climate
variability/trends and as useful tools for developing long-term records of
extreme climatic events [Mann et al., 1999]. Previous monsoon
reconstructions using tree rings were based on ring width. The analogy used
was: trees from high latitude or altitude regions, with wider (narrower) rings
correspond to higher (lower) temperature/ precipitation (Managave and
Ramesh, 2012). However, the presumably simple relation between width and
climate is rather complex and is influenced by non-climatic factors such as
light availability, topography, soil type and forest thinning, ecological
parameters and also genetic variability among trees of the same species (e.g.,
Kress et al. [2009], Fritts [1976]). Paleoclimate proxies are affected by
ecological parameters and considered to be better measures for climate
reconstruction. Tree cellulose δ 18O is more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations
as compared to ring-width and ring density [Sano et al., 2010]. Several
researches and reviews on tree rings isotopes by Farquhar et al. (1989),
Ramesh et al. (1986), Dawson et al. (2002), McCarroll and Loader (2004),
Managave and Ramesh (2012) highlight that oxygen and hydrogen of
cellulose from individual growth rings can be used as proxies for climatic
parameters such as rainfall, humidity and temperature. The oxygen isotope
composition of plants is influenced by various physiological and climate
processes. It is mainly controlled by δ 18O of the source water, the level of
18
O enrichment in leaf due to evaporation, biochemical fractionation of 18O
due to synthesis of sucrose in the leaf and the isotopic exchange between
carbohydrate and xylem water during cellulose synthesis. The δ 18O of
rainfall is inversely related to the amount of precipitation in the tropics
(Dansgaard, 1964; Rozanski et al., 1993; Schmidt et al., 2007; Yadava and
Ramesh, 2007) hence tree cellulose δ 18O is a powerful tool to reconstruct
past monsoon rainfall.
Dendrochronology is the science which belongs to the study of trees’ annual

growth rings, or in a more scientific way dendrochronology (dendros: trees or
growth ring of trees, chronos: time or past event, logy: the study of) is the
114 study and dating of trees annual growth rings to understand the past event
and processes. Trees are the natural archives and have the potential to reflect Atmosphere and
the past atmospheric conditions through annual growth-rings. Tree-ring study Climate
could be useful to understand the different aspect of environment like

climate, ecology, geophysical process, etc. To study the different disciplines
of dendrochronology, it has been divided into several branches based on
various parameters and the important applications are as follows:
a) Dendroclimatology: Developing records of past climate using living and

dead tree-annual growth rings.
b) Dendrohydrology: Developing records of past water availability and

flooding.
c) Dendroarchaeology: Dating of Archaeological dwellings.
d) Dendrogeomorphology: Dating of land movements in the past in the

form of landslide, creeping and debris flow.
e) Dendroglaciology: Dating of glacial movement and fluctuations in the

past.
f) Dendrovolcanology: Dating of volcanic eruptions in the past.
g) Dendrochemistry: Monitoring of the chemical composition of the soil.
h) Dendroecology: Determine the ecological process in terms of tree-line

movements, etc.
i) Dendropyrochrnonology: Dating of forest fires in the past.
j) Dendroentomology: Reconstruction of population level of insects in the

past.
k) Dedromastecology: Reconstruction of trees fruiting events.
Dendroclimatology is a special branch of dendrochronology. Development of

past climatic records with the help of annual tree-growth rings is called
Dendroclimatology. Trees’ annual growth rings are studied to understand the
past climatic fluctuations and environmental process prevailing over the
region. Atmospheric conditions and influence of climate can be observed in
tree rings by variation in ring-width. This tree-growth and climate
relationship was first recognised by the Leonardo da Vinci in sixteenth
century (Stallings et. al, 1937). However annual tree-ring development and
wood structure were studied to the mid-1800s when Hartig’ son and others
published their research paper (Schweingruber, 1988). Hartig’s son Robert
had also studied anatomy and ecology of tree-rings in the end of nineteenth
century and date the damage by insects, hail and frost in trees
(Schweingruber, 1988). Andrew E. Douglass was the pioneer worker of this
science and known as the “Father of Dendrochronology”. He realized that
the narrow rings of trees formed during the dry years and the variation in
tree-ring pattern can be used to cross-date different sites of tree-ring sequence
115
Introduction to
Global Climate and to exactly fit them into the calendar year. In the twentieth century, tree-
Change ring study became a useful tool and has been used widely in the world to
understand past climatic process. H. C. Fritts (1976) introduced statistical
procedures for the reconstruction of past climate on the basis of climatic
signal preserved in the tree-ring sequences.
Annual growth-rings are actually secondary xylem and one ring consists of
earlywood and latewood. The light and large sized cell which forms during
the spring season are called as earlywood and comparatively small in size and
dark in colour cells are developed during summer period called latewood.
Dendroclimatic studies require trees which produce annual growth ring like
conifers including some broad leaf trees are highly useful for the climatic
reconstructions. To understand the climate growth relationship, trees from the
climate sensitive sites are used where tree-growth is directly influenced by
the climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. Generally
steep slopes, where water table is far from the tree roots are used due to
negligible influence of water logging on trees and increasing dependency
over climate. Trees grown over such condition are very vulnerable to climate
change and therefore very sensitive too. Methodology consists of that two-
increment core sample perpendicular to the natural slope from a tree
generally taken and for the coring in trees breast height (~1.4m) is used.
Increment cores are very fragile and to support the sample wooden frames are
used to hold the cores safely and this process is known as mounting of tree-
ring samples. Mounted samples are air dried for few days on room
temperature and then surfaces are polished with different grit of abrasive to
make cross-surface visible under microscope. To assign true calendar year to
each ring’s skeleton, plot method is used to cross date tree-ring sequence of
each sample (Stokes and Smiley, 1968). Using dated samples, tree-ring
chronologies developed from each site and climatic signal with the help of
metrological data in the chronologies identified. Calibration and verification
analysis are performed and ultimately climatic variable is reconstructed.
The tree-ring based climatic reconstruction provides valuable window to look

in the past to understand the climatic variability. Actually, in the era of global
warming, climate is continuously changing and there is huge temporal and
spatial difference exist in a regional scale. Observational record from all over
the globe shows that temperature is continuously increasing whereas
precipitation shows heterogeneity in the trend. Earth’s climate is changing
since long back but in the last ~150 years, the anthropogenic activity
enhances the variability and due to the influence of anthropogenic practices,
climatic observational records show turbulence in their normal pattern. The
instrumental records are restricted our understanding in terms of climatic
changes in past because of the availability of very sparse and patchy climatic
data. Meteorological data records go up-to last one and half century which
are not sufficient to understand long term climatic changes. In the absence of
proper network of metrological station, tree-ring data have potential to
116 supplement the existing records up-to the last millennium and more.
Resolution of tree ring data is very high and this character makes it unique Atmosphere and
among the other climatic proxies. Climate
Several tropical and temperate tree species growing in different climatic

zones in India with distinct seasonality are known to have datable growth
rings. Early studies on tree-rings in India were aimed to understand tree
productivity and rotation cycles (Gamble, 1902). Chowdhury (1939, 1940a,
b) first attempted to study the effect of environmental factors on growth-ring
formation in several species. However, climatic aspect of tree-ring studies in
India began only around late 1970s (Pant, 1979). Since then, subsequent tree-
ring studies have indicated enormous dendroclimatic potential of different
species and several chronologies and reconstructions developed (Yadav et al.,
2004, 2006, 2014a, 2014b, 2015, 2017; Misra et al., 2015).
6.6 CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL SCALE

DATA FROM PROXY RECORDS
To understand the long-term climate and vegetation dynamics and to
understand the influence of human being in altering the landscape dynamics,
etc. we need to look into the proxy records that can help in reconstructing the
geological past, whether its climate, vegetation, ecosystem or human
interference. The proxies that give annual resolution data fetch good
information about the changing landscape dynamics for the past few
thousand years. But to have the long-term information, we have to rely on
proxies that gives information from centennial to millennial scale. So as the
gap in the data sparsity at spatial and temporal scale could be filled and a
better scenario for further research and policy framing could be done. In this
connection, palynological analysis from the sub-surface sediment samples
from lakes, swaps, wetlands and ocean cores proved to be very potential
archive to reconstruct the wide spectrum of knowledge about the past climate
and vegetation relationship as well as the socio-economic status of the past
societies.
6.6.1 Palynology as a proxy record

Since the early 1990s, palynology (study of pollen/spores, diatom, phytoliths,
etc.) has been used to address several issues like vegetation dynamics,
landscape evolution, agriculture, socio-economic status, past dietary pattern,
etc. from a wide variety of sediment samples collected from diversified
geographical location across the globe.
Analyses of pollen, diatoms and phytoliths data and identification of other

organic remains from lacustrine sediments at close interval from the sediment
profile would portray the pattern of vegetation changes. The identification of
the spores/pollen, diatom and phytoliths help not only in the reconstruction of
climate based on changes of past vegetation but also provide great help in
understanding the advent of agriculture and role of the various anthropogenic
impacts on vegetation dynamics vis-à-vis climate change in a region. This 117
Introduction to
Global Climate can be done on the basis of morphological variation (in pollen) between wild
Change vs cultivated grasses, abrupt decline in tree taxa in the landscape, records of
weeds known to be associated with the cultivation and forest clearance. In a
study from Kolleru lake by Misra et al., (2013), palynological investigation
showed that during early to mid-Holocene time, Kolleru lake was a part of
sea and under the varying sea level and other geological processes and human
interference, it got disconnected from the sea and eventually turned into the
present-day fresh water lake. Presence of rice phytoliths and record of
cultural pollen (more than 40µ) recorded during 6000 years BP indicate
towards the paddy cultivation and agricultural practice in the vicinity of the
study area. Diatoms being very sensitive to pH and salinity variation will
reflect into the past salinity variation, present and past ecological status of
wetlands and associated fresh environment etc., in the region.
Application of phytolith as climatic proxy is based on different ecological

preferences of the C3 and C4 type. C4 type of plants favour conditions of
aridity and low soil moisture whereas the C3 plants dominate areas of higher
soil moisture (Tieszen et al., 1979). These changes are linked with climatic
changes in respect to time scale provided by C-14 dates (both conventional
and AMS) of corresponding sediments analyzed.
6.6.2 Stable isotopes

Plants vary not only on the morphological basis but also vary in their
methods of food preparation. Thus, the perennial grasses are be classified
as either C3 or C4 plants. These terms refer to the different pathways that plants
use to capture carbon dioxide during photosynthesis. Thus, on the basis of the
photosynthetic pathway, the plants are broadly classified as -
1) C3 Plants: The majority of plants (85%), for example are rice, wheat,
soybeans are C3. They have no special features to combat
photorespiration and the first stable compound formed is 3 carbon
compound. They are adapted to cool season establishment and growth in
either wet or dry environments. C3 species also tend to generate less bulk
than C4 species. C3 grasses are known for their greater tolerance of frost
compared to C4 grasses.
2) C4 Plants: C4 plants initially produce a 4-carbon molecule that then enters

the C3 cycle. Plants are more adapted to warm or hot seasonal conditions
under moist or dry environments.
3) CAM: In some plants, as an adaptation to arid conditions, carbon

fixation pathway varies. In such plants to reduce evapo-transpiration,
stomataremain closed during the day, but open at night to collect carbon
dioxide (CO2) which is stored as the four-carbon
acid malate in vacuoles at night, and then in the daytime, the malate is
transported to chloroplasts where it is converted back to CO2, to get
utilized during photosynthesis.
118
Even the isotopic signatures of the C3 and C4 plant varies. The C3 plants have Atmosphere and
δ13C in the range of 22.6‰ to 22.8‰, whereas the C types of plants have
Climate
4
δ13C values in the range of sample 211‰ to 213‰ (Smith and Epstein,
1971; O’Leary, 1988). In a lacustrine system, both terrestrial and aquatic
plants contribute to the organic matter. To understand the autochthonous and
allochthonous inputs in the region, C/N ratio is very useful and would be
used. It is known that autochthonous organic matter comprising aquatic
plants and algae has a C/N ratio of less than 10, whereas allochthonous
organic matter comprising terrestrial plants has a C/N ratio normally higher
than 20 and may be up to 200 (Meybeck, 1982; Hedges et al., 1986, in Talbot
and Johannessen, 1992).
6.6.3 Biomarkers analysis

Among the various proxies used in palaeoclimate studies, use of biomarkers
has increased for the last few decades and has been widely used to address
several issues related to palaeo-humidity, palaeo-temperature, palaeo-
vegetation, wet and humid phases, etc. A typical biomarker molecule is made
up of a hundred or so covalently-bound atoms of carbon and hydrogen,
sometimes also including oxygen, nitrogen, etc., (Eglinton and Eglinton,
2008). These biosynthesized molecules released from precursor organism
directly, or upon its death get readily dispersed in the environment.
Dispersion of biomarkers is greatly influenced by their entrapment within
mineral matrices such as shell, teeth, bone etc., or encapsulation in resistant
biopolymer matrices such as cell walls, leaf and insect cuticles and pollen
grains, or packaging in environmentally ephemeral entities such as fecal
pellets, “marine snow” or other detrital debris and colloidal matter (e.g.,
humic acids) (Eglinton and Eglinton, 2008). Thus, the number of carbon
atoms varies from source to source.
6.6.4 Ancient DNA

Among the various emerging potential proxies, ancient DNA proved to be
very useful to scientific as well as archaeological community to resolve
several issues related to origin, evolution, dispersal, and migration of plants
and humans in ancient past. It plays a vital role in identification of the
samples that are morphologically difficult to identify. Sedimentary DNA is
also been in use to know about the past vegetation scenarios and thus climate
of several sites across globe. Like other fields, this field also requires lot of
standard protocol right from the site selection, sample collection, storage to
data generation and interpretation. Avoiding the contamination of the
samples is the pre requisite for DNA analysis.
6.7 LET US SUM UP

Climate change is one of the serious issues being faced by humanity across
the globe. Climate change has a wide-range of effects on the environment,
119
Introduction to
Global Climate socio-economic life influencing several sectors like water resources,
Change agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems,
biodiversity and coastal zones. To understand the dynamics of climate
change and associated events, it is necessary to have a better understanding of
the present scenario of climate by studying and observing the factors
controlling or contributing in climate change. In this regard, multi-
disciplinary and interdisciplinary studies (oceanography, meteorology,
geomorphology, geology and pale climatology) give good amount of
quantitative and qualitative information. This information along with the
observational and instrumental records from diversified geographical location
contribute a lot in making predictive climatic models. Analysis of
instrumental records of common climate elements such as temperature,
precipitation (rain, snow and hail), humidity, wind, sunshine and atmospheric
pressure taken together proved to be very useful to specify the physical state
of the climate at a given place, for a certain period of time. Nevertheless,
available instrumental weather records are spanning for short time period in
most parts of the country and they do not provide benchmark information to
discriminate between natural and human-induced climatic impact. Since
climate, in general, shows high spatial and temporal variability, long-term
climate records from different geographic regions of the country are required
so that we can have a better insight into the climate change. In this regard,
high-resolution long-term proxy records are required. We have seen that
proxies like ice cores, tree rings, sub-fossil pollen, boreholes, corals, lake,
ocean sediments, and Speleothems had proved to be very useful to mankind
to understand the long term vegetation and climate dynamics at spatial and
temporal scale.
Acknowledgement:
Authors would like to thank Director, BSIP for necessary facilities. Misra S
acknowledges DST Fast Track project YSS/2015/001193 for the available
facilities under this project.
6.8 KEY WORD

Proxy: A proxy climate indicator is a record that is interpreted, using
physical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination of climate
related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived in this way are
referred to as proxy data.

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123
Introduction to
Global Climate 6.10 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS
Change
1) Speleothems are defined as the mineral deposits formed in karstic caves,

where the water table is significantly lowered, and favoring air exchange
with atmosphere. On the basis of competition between the dynamics of
the water and the crystal growth habits of the constituent minerals, they
attain different shapes namely stalagmites and stalactites or slab-like
deposits known as flowstones. Stalactites are the deposits which hang
from the ceilings of caves, they often have a hollow core, with growth
occurring around the central orifice. Stalagmites are solid and grow
incrementally at the drip site.
2) Coral reefs are very sensitive to changes in climate. Corals by extracting

calcium carbonate from the ocean waters, they form skeleton like
structure. When the water temperature changes, calcium carbonate
densities in the skeletons also change. It has been reported that the coral
formed in the summer has a different density than coral formed in the
winter. This creates seasonal growth rings on the coral (like rings on a
tree). These rings are used to determine the temperature of the water, and
the season in which the coral grew and by studying the growth bands,
coral samples can be dated to an exact year and season. The density of
the coral skeleton, or how many minerals are present in a piece of a
certain size, changes with temperature.
1) Dendrochronology is the science which belongs to the study of trees’

annual growth rings. In other words, dendrochronology is defined as the
study and dating of trees annual growth rings to understand the past
event and processes. Trees are the natural archives and have the potential
to reflect the past atmospheric conditions through annual growth-rings.
Tree-ring study could be useful to understand the different aspect of
environment like climate, ecology, geophysical process, etc.
2) Dendroclimatology is a special branch of dendrochronology.

Development of past climatic records with the help of annual tree-growth
rings is called Dendroclimatology. Trees’ annual growth rings are
studied to understand the past climatic fluctuations and environmental
process prevailing over the region. Atmospheric conditions and influence
of climate can be observed in tree rings by variation in ring-width.
124
UNIT 7 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND Atmosphere and
Climate
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Structure
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Objectives
7.3 Climate Change
7.4 Extreme Weather Events
7.5 Drought
7.6 Extreme Heat
7.7 Extreme Precipitation
7.8 Tropical cyclones/Hurricanes
7.9 Extratropical storms/Tornadoes
7.10 Wildfires
7.11 Let Us Sum Up
7.12 Key Words
7.1 INTRODUCTION
It has been observed that in recent years, there has been an increase in
frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. These weather events
are considered extreme if they differ from similar weather events of that area
by 90-95%. Further, to identify the weather events of a region, their historical
record of weather is examined. Examples include unusually high or low
temperature, precipitation, winds or any other parameters such as wildfires,
droughts and floods.
With rising awareness about climate change due to both natural and human-
induced factors, it has been projected that global warming would cause and
increase in hot temperature extremes and occasional lower temperature
extreme on daily as well as seasonal time scales. Under RCP8.5
(Representative Concentration Pathway), by the end of the 21st century, a
current 20-year high temperature event will occur more frequently on land
and a current 20-year low temperature event will become very rare.
A new scientific approach known as ‘extreme event attribution’ is being

practiced where computer models are used to simulate weather conditions
and different scenarios are compared to identify how global warming or any
other factor has affected extreme weather events. Attribution scientists aim to
quantify the extent of human-induced climate change alters the likelihood
and intensity of extreme weather events. An example of extreme event 125
Introduction to
Global Climate attribution of Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017 is very high rainfall of 60
Change inches that worsened the flooding and increased the likelihood of storm.
The website Carbon Brief has published an update of its attribution studies
titled “Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate
Change” (Fig. 7.1) that have looked into the impact of climate change on
extreme weather events around the world. The vertical axis corresponds to
the confidence in attribution science and the horizontal axis indicates the
level of understanding of how climate affects that type of event.
Fig. 7.1: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (Source:
NAS, 2016)
It is pertinent to mention that many scientists are of the opinion that global
climate change has led to increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme
weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, storms etc. Further,
anthropogenic role in climate change has further aggravated the occurrence
and intensity of extreme weather events. For example, sea level rise due to
climate change adversely affects the coastal storms. Further, rising global
temperatures due to global warming pose additional stress on areas affected
by drought due to higher temperatures. All these examples point towards the
role of climate change in increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme
weather events. Through this unit, we would be discussing climate variability
and extreme weather events.
7.2 OBJECTIVES
• define the extreme weather event; and

• discuss the extreme weather events.
126
7.3 CLIMATE CHANGE Atmosphere and
Climate
Climate change refers to the change in the normal weather patterns around
the world for an extended period of time. Many evidences such as rising sea
level, shifting of tree lines, loss of sea ice, increased frequency of heat waves
and drought, shrinking of glaciers and so on, indicate towards changing
climate of the Earth. The United Nations has set up an organization known as
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for assessing the science
related to climate change. IPCC is of the opinion that the extent of climate
change effects on individual regions will vary over time depending on the
adaptation capacity of the community as well as the environment of that
region. Further, the temperature increase forecasted by IPCC is 1-3°C all
over the globe, which would be beneficial for some regions while
disadvantageous for a few. However, the disadvantages far outweigh the
positive effects of climate change.
Further, it is projected that global climate will continue to change even

beyond this century depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted
globally, that heat up the earth’s atmosphere by preventing passage of
longwave radiations back to the space; and also, by earth’s response to those
greenhouse gas emissions.
7.4 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

The definition of an extreme event is quite varied depending on the impacts
caused by these events or on the basis of magnitude and intensity of these
events. It may range from droughts, tsunamis and earthquakes to epidemics
or explosion as well. These extreme events have been gaining greater
attention in the last few years due to increase in frequency and magnitude of
extreme weather and climate events; as well as due to increase in
vulnerability due to high population growth, lifestyle changes and
urbanization in regions which should ideally have been buffer zones during
the onset of disaster such as floods. Examples include building settlement
areas on river banks or in coastal regions prone to tsunamis or cyclones.
If we look at the chronology of the development of the term ‘extreme event’,

it was first used for rainfall intensity and frequency in a report by the
National Weather Service, earlier known as U.S. Weather Bureau (U.S.
Weather Service, 1959). The word ‘extreme’ has been derived from the Latin
‘extremus’ meaning “utmost” while ‘event’ originates from the Latin
‘evenire’ meaning “to come” (Weekley, 1921). Thus, extreme refers to the
process of rare occurrence or of low probability or as outliers to the normal
condition; while event describes a non-stationary situation. Thus, an extreme
weather event refers to the occurrence of a very high or very low value of a
weather variable as compared to its threshold level in a specific region. This
is illustrated in the form of extreme weather and climate events such as heat
waves and drought which are a manifestation of climate change. Over the last
127
Introduction to
Global Climate three decades, the world has witnessed prolonged droughts, excessive
Change precipitation, frequent floods, fewer colder days and higher temperatures.
This is often attributed to human-induced climate changes. Many factors
influence extreme weather events.
Various mechanisms have been developed all over the world to assess the
extreme weather events. For example, U.S Records is a tool that lists daily,
monthly and all-time data for weather stations located across the United
States. Besides, the National Climate Extremes Committee (NCEC) was
established in 1997 in US to study the extreme events and ponder upon the
meteorological measurements by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration) and State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) in 2006 to
evaluate the climatological records of individual states in US. International
Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) provides
information pertaining to the distribution, frequency, and intensity of tropical
cyclones worldwide. Also, various reports such as Special Reports on
Extreme Climate Events and Global Hazards Report focus on extreme events
around the world. NOAA's National Centres for Environmental Information
(NCEI) hosts and provides public access to abundant environmental
information on Earth that includes atmospheric, coastal, oceanic and
geophysical data.
In the following section, let’s study some extreme weather events arising out
of climate change.
7.5 DROUGHT
Drought is a climate anomaly characterized by temporary reduction in water
or moisture availability significantly below the normal amount for a specific
period. This could be due to a single factor of insufficient or irregular
rainfall, or a higher water need or a combination of multiple factors. The
reason for concern of drought is that if it persists for longer periods, it can
cause adverse effects on humans, vegetation, livestock as well as ecological
systems that undergo drought. Globally, drought is the second-most
geographically extensive hazard after floods of the earth’s land area. The
percent of area affected by serious drought has doubled since 1970. In recent
years, droughts have been occurring frequently, and their impacts are being
aggravated by the rise in water demand and the variability in hydro-
meteorological variables due to climate change.
In general, four types of drought are recognised: meteorological drought,

hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socioeconomic drought.
Meteorological drought is defined as a lack of precipitation over a region for
a period of time. Hydrological drought is related to a period with inadequate
surface and subsurface water resources for established water uses of a given
water resources management system. Agricultural drought, usually, refers to
a period with declining soil moisture and consequent crop failure. This does
128 not include any reference to surface water resources A decline of soil
moisture depends on several factors which are affected by meteorological and Atmosphere and
hydrological droughts along with differences between actual Climate
evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration. Socio-economic drought

is associated with failure of water resources systems to meet water demands
and thus associating droughts with supply of and demand for water. Socio-
economic drought occurs when the demand for water exceeds supply as a
result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply. In rainfed areas, drylands
are more prone to 'drought'. Severe drought can affect livestock and crops in
agriculture; leading to food price instability, famine; water transport system;
roadways; increase the probability of wildfires; scarcity of hydropower and
thus additional energy stress coupled with increased electricity demand.
Resilience towards drought can be built by conserving water, enhancing
water efficiency, stormwater management, emergency planning for drought,
and planting drought-resistant crops.
Various mechanisms have been explained regarding contribution of climate

change to drought. The first and foremost factor in this is the erratic monsoon
patterns and its deviation from the normal or predicted rainfall. Further,
lesser rainfall coupled with higher temperatures create moisture stress in
plants due to increased evapotranspiration. As a result, the amount of water
needed for evapotranspiration exceeds the total amount of moisture available
in soil. Further, it has also been hypothesized that droughts can persist
through a “positive feedback,” where dry soils and reduced plant cover can
further hamper precipitation in an already dry area.
Further, it is estimated that relatively wet places, such as the tropics, and
higher latitudes will get wetter, while relatively dry places in the subtropics
will become drier. The recent studies on droughts in United States indicate
that 81% of area suffered severe economic drought.
In the Indian context, every year since 2015, the country has faced severe
drought in many states. It has been estimated that during the last year (2019),
about 42% of geographical area of the country faced severe drought and
about 50 million people were severely affected by drought. According to the
Drought Early Warning System, Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana were the states worst affected by
drought. In 2019, 44% of India’s area was under drought of one type or the
other due to scanty rainfall, delay in monsoons and increased heatwaves.
Even in 2020, almost one-fifth of India's districts faced drought-like
conditions as per reports by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
7.6 EXTREME HEAT

It has been observed that all over the world, the frequency and intensity of
hot days has been increasing in the last few decades; while the number of
cold days annually has been decreasing. Further, if greenhouse gas emissions
are not significantly reduced, the coldest and warmest daily temperatures are
expected to increase by at least 5 degrees F in most areas of United States. 129
Introduction to
Global Climate The National Climate Assessment estimates the annual number of days with
Change a heat index above 100 degrees F will double, and days with a heat index
above 105 degrees F will triple, nationwide, when compared to the end of the
20th century. Figure 7.2 represents the projected changes in the number of
days per year in United States with a maximum temperature above 90°F and
a minimum temperature below 32°F. Changes are the difference between the
average for mid-century (2036–2065) and the average for near-present
(1976–2005) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). This map depicts a
weighted multi-modal mean of 32 climate model projections.
Fig. 7.2: Projected changes in the number of days per year in United States (CICS-NC
and NOAA NCEI by Russel Vose, available in Climate Science Special Report).
In the Indian context, extreme heat events have been occurring frequently in
the last decade. Various heat events have been recorded that have been linked
to anthropogenic reasons contributing to climate change. Last year in the
month of May and June (2019), a severe heat wave was recorded in India
with highest temperatures reaching 50.8°C in Churu, Rajasthan. Many
casualties were reported in Northern and eastern cities of India during
summer season due to these heat waves. This led to severe drought and
extreme water scarcity in many parts of India. Some other examples include
heat wave in Ahmedabad in 2010 that killed about 1000 people and another
heat wave in 2015 caused about 2300 casualties in whole of India. In the
same year, a huge heat wave killed thousands of people in Andhra Pradesh
and Telangana. So far, the highest temperatures during extreme heat waves
have been recorded in the year 2016 with temperatures reaching 51°C in
Phalodi in north-western India.
The threats posed by extreme heat waves include increase in frequency and
130 intensity of droughts; wildfires; heat island effect in urban areas due to
elevated temperatures in built-up areas of cities; impact on human health Atmosphere and
such as dehydration, diarrhoea, fatigue, heat stroke, heat stress, Climate
unconsciousness and even death, cardiovascular and respiratory symptoms;

economic losses and increase in pollution levels, thus, affecting the air
quality. This is particularly damaging to crop productivity, livestock, higher
energy consumption due to excessive use of air-conditioners and
refrigerators.
As a result, it becomes imperative to chalk out resilience pathways for

minimising the heat impacts. These include:
• Creating heat preparedness plans;

• Recognising populations vulnerable to extreme heat;
• Installing cool and green roofs and cool pavement to reduce the urban
heat island effect;
• Increasing land area under plantation to reduce the temperature of urban
area; and
• Utilizing energy efficiency to reduce electricity demand.
It is believed that in 2003, the European heat wave killed about 35000-70000
people. In India, most of the heat waves occur during the summer months of
May and June. In 2015, it was estimated that heat waves caused death toll of
more than 2400 people in the country. This number has been increasing ever
since with India seeing the hottest 32 days during May-June months in 2019.
In 2020, Churu in Rajasthan state recorded the highest temperatures (50°C)
during summertime. The Indian Meteorological Department had categorized
Core Heatwave Zones (CHZs) that included Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana,
Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa
besides other regions of the country.
7.7 EXTREME PRECIPITATION

Extreme precipitation events have become more common since the 1950s in
many regions of the world. It is predicted that with increasing global
warming, the trend of extreme precipitation would continue since warmer air
can hold greater amount of water vapour. This would probably lead to more
moisture retention by warmer air and further lead to intense precipitation.
However, intense precipitation may or may not lead to increase in total
precipitation. Various climate models predict a decrease in rainfall and
increase in length of dry periods. The heavy events are defined as the top 1%
of all daily events.
Many climate models project that all over the globe, the wet places would get
wetter while the dry ones would become even drier due to spatial and
temporal variability in extreme precipitation events. Further, these models
also indicate a relatively widespread intensification of heavy precipitation
events in response to global warming and increase in greenhouse gases. 131
Introduction to
Global Climate However, the complexities of extreme events should be kept in mind while
Change studying these models since they tend to simplify these processes due to
assumptions in these models.
Threats posed by heavy precipitation
Some of the most imminent threats posed by heavy precipitation is the

prospect of flooding. This is further exacerbated in urban areas where
stormwater flow pollutants like heavy metals, pesticides and other nutrients
such as nitrogen and phosphorus increase and runs off into sewerage and
aquatic ecosystems, thus, damaging the water quality. It is estimated that
from 1980 to 2009, floods caused more than 500,000 deaths and affected
more than 2.8 billion people all over the world. Some recent examples
include heavy rains in Maryland in July 2016 of about six inches falling
during two hours, and a year’s worth of rainfall (17 inches) was received in
Colorado in September 2013 causing severe economic losses. India is one of
the worst floods affected countries, being second in the world and accounts
for one fifth of global death count due to floods. India receives 75% of rains
during the monsoon season (June to September). As a result, almost all the
rivers are flooded during this time resulting in sediment deposition, drainage
congestion, invading into the main land. More than 8 million hectares of land
in India are annually affected by floods. The flood prone area in India
constitutes about 40 million hectares. Other examples include Uttarakhand
floods due to cloudburst that caused great loss to life and property in June
2013. Every year during monsoons, the city of Mumbai gets flooded due to
very old drainage network system and increase in impermeable surfaces due
to heavy construction of roads, pavements and buildings in the city.
According to meteorological records from the Santacruz Observatory in
Mumbai, this year, 82.5 inches of rain fell in the city between July 10 and
August 7, 2020.
Various types of floods have been recognised:
• Flash floods: These can be caused by short-duration intense

precipitation, dam or levee failure, or collapse of debris and ice jams.
The flash floods in Uttarakhand in June 2013 due to multiple cloud
bursts in a single day caused massive landslides and has been known to
be the worst disaster in the country after 2004 tsunami incident.
• Urban flooding: Caused by immediate runoff from impervious surfaces

such as roads, pavement, parking lots, and buildings by short-duration
very heavy precipitation. Flash floods and urban flooding are directly
linked to heavy precipitation and are expected to increase as a result of
increases in heavy precipitation events.
• River flooding: It occurs when surface water as a result of precipitation

drained from a watershed into a stream or a river exceeds channel
capacity, overflows the banks and inundates adjacent low-lying areas.
132
• Coastal flooding: It is predominantly caused by storm surges as a result Atmosphere and
of increase in heavy rainfall and sea level rise that push seawater towards Climate
the shore. Storm surge can cause inland flooding leading to deaths,
damage to infrastructure, and severe beach erosion.
In addition to flooding, heavy precipitation also increases the risk of

landslides. Every year, the states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand face
landslides due to heavy rains in the region. The Garhwal Himalayas tragedy
of 16-17 June, 2013 was one of the worst disasters of the last century owing
to unprecedented rainfall. The extreme rainfall coupled with bursting of
moraine-dammed Chorabari lake caused heavy floods in Mandakini river that
led to flash floods and devastation in downstream areas of Kedarnath,
Rambara and Gaurikund.
Resilience to extreme precipitation event
The impacts of heavy precipitation can be reduced by the following steps:
• Building infrastructure on higher platforms so that they are less prone to

flooding.
• Applying flood control infrastructure.
• Replacing the use of pavement and concrete with permeable surfaces
• Providing insurance and incentives to the victims affected by floods and
landslides.
• Wastewater systems need to be separated from stormwater systems.
1) What are potential threats caused by extreme heat event?
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2) How can resilience be built for an extreme precipitation event?
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Introduction to
Global Climate 7.8 TROPICAL CYCLONES/HURRICANES
Change
A hurricane is a low-pressure storm system that develops in the tropics or
subtropics; hence, is known as tropical cyclones. In the Northern
Hemisphere, these storms rotate counter-clockwise and clockwise in southern
hemisphere. Stronger systems are called “hurricanes” or “typhoons,” while
weaker tropical cyclones are called “tropical depressions” or “tropical
storms.” Tropical cyclones, are known as hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean or
typhoons in the Pacific Ocean. Predicting these cyclones/ hurricanes has been
quite uncertain; it is only with the advent of recent remote sensing techniques
and satellite data that the study of these cyclones and hurricanes has
developed to a great extent.
It is believed by climate scientists that a warmer and moist atmosphere would

increase the magnitude and intensity of hurricanes. Further, increased
temperatures would lead to sea level rise, and higher rainfall; that would lead
to increased coastal storms and thus, flooding. However, the impact of global
warming on frequency of hurricane is uncertain. Various factors have been
shown to influence these hurricanes as a result of higher local sea surface
temperatures, including natural variability, human-induced emissions of heat-
trapping gases, and particulate pollution. Quantifying the relative
contributions of natural and human-caused factors is an active focus of
research.
Further, the cyclones are very sensitive to natural climate variability, that in
turn, affects the ocean basins. Modelling the tropical cyclones is a difficult
task due to the grid size of numerical climate simulation models ranging from
a few tens to several hundred kilometres.
Threats Posed by Hurricanes
• Economic losses due to hurricanes are enormous. Four of the 10 costliest

hurricanes on record in the United States occurred in 2017 and 2018.
Hurricane Katrina (2005) remains the most expensive hurricane on
record costing $168 billion (2020 dollars).
• Risk to property and infrastructure in coastal areas is huge.
• There is a great threat to human lives during a hurricane. About 1800

deaths during Hurricane Katrina and 2981 deaths during Hurricane Maria
in 2018 have been reported.
• Besides, hurricanes damage energy systems, water and sewer systems

and transportation structures.
In 2020, various hurricanes such as Hurricane Hanna that made landfall in

Texas followed by Hurricane Isaias and then Hurricane Laura, Hurricane
Sally and Hurricane Eta were the most prominent one besides various
tropical storm that occurred in Atlantic Ocean. A total of 30 storms were
134 recorded in 2020 with the strongest storm being Storm Iota with maximum
wind speeds of 260km/hr. Out of these 30 storms, 13 developed into Atmosphere and
hurricanes with total fatalities of more than 431 and total economic losses of Climate
more than $46.906 billion USD have been reported. It is pertinent to mention
that the Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 01 and ended on November
30 this year. It was by far the most active and seventh costliest recorded
Atlantic hurricane season in terms of economic losses.
Resilience can be built by:
• Preserving coastal wetlands and coral reefs to minimize the impacts of

storm surge.
• improving vulnerable buildings to reduce flood damage.
• Developing an evacuation plan to minimize the adverse impacts.
7.9 EXTRATROPICAL STORMS/TORNADOES

Research indicates that storms have increased in frequency and intensity
since the 1950s coupled with the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail,
and thunderstorm. Storms are related to atmospheric circulations which
corresponds to temperature difference between the equator and the poles.
If we look into the temperature gradient between the poles and the equator,
the melting of ice at the poles due to climate change results in greater
warming at the poles; thus, decreasing the temperature difference between
equator and poles. Further, warming is higher at the top of the troposphere,
thus, strengthening the temperature gradient. The difference between the
troposphere of upper tropics and the lower Arctic results in the atmospheric
dynamics of the mid-latitudes, such as depressions and storms. Climate
variability further adds to the formation of storms. However, it is pertinent to
mention here that not all depressions turn into storms, hence, further adding
to the uncertainty. The impact of atmospheric instability and wind shear on
the formation of tornadoes needs to be studied.
Threats posed by tornadoes
The most important threats from tornadoes is the damage due to high speed
winds that carry debris along with them. As per the projections of NOAA,
about 1,200 tornadoes occur across the country annually. Although the
casualties have decreased rapidly in the last few years due to better early
warning systems and satellite images; however, the damages caused still need
detailed minimization strategies.
Communities can increase their resilience and reduce the impacts from
tornadoes by:
• Adopting more stringent building codes in tornado-prone areas.

• Continuing to support research on severe weather forecasts.
• Heeding watches and warnings when they are issued, and ensuring that
135
Introduction to
Global Climate individuals can be reached by emergency alert systems.
Change
7.10 WILDFIRES
Many studies have linked an increase in wildfire activity to global warming.
In addition, the risk of a fire could depend on past forest management, natural
climate variability, human activities, and other factors, in addition to human-
caused climate change. Determining how much climate change contributes to
extreme weather events such as wildfires continues to be studied.
Climate change has been a key factor either directly or indirectly, in

increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the world. Various factors
contribute to increased risk of wildfire, such as temperature, soil moisture,
dry conditions, increased drought scenario, presence of vegetation and other
potential fuel such as organic matter that burns up easily (e.g., dried leaves,
twigs etc.). Some of the examples include frequent bushfires in Australia of
which the highest number of deaths and casualties were reported in the 2009
Black Saturday bushfires in the state of Victoria. The most recent examples
include burning of the Seshachalam forest area very close to the holy city of
Tirupati in South India in March, 2020 and the lightening sparked wildfires
in the state of California in August 2020 which has burnt lakhs of acres of
land.
The effects of wildfire are manifold:
• Economic aspects: Wildfires cause severe economic losses as funds are

required for suppression of fires.
• Public health: Wildfire cause risk to life, property and public health;
Smoke reduces air quality and can cause eye and respiratory illness.
• Damage to environment: Wildfires can damage ecosystem and release

large amounts of gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thus,
adding further to climate change.
Resilience towards wildfires can be developed by:
• Avoiding buildings and infrastructure in fire-prone areas.

• Working on increasing the spacing between residential areas and forest
areas.
• Including fire-resistant materials in buildings.
• Increasing resources allocated to firefighting and fire prevention and
minimizing damage due to fires.
Many of these extreme events are inter-related and cannot be studied in

isolation. For example, highest rainfall was recorded from a single event
during Hurricane Harvey at Houston in August 2017.
136
Check Your Progress 2 Atmosphere and
Climate
1) What are the contributing factors to a wildfire event?
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2) Is it best to study extreme events in isolation or a holistic manner?
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7.11 LET US SUM UP

To sum up, the study of extreme weather events is very challenging due to
uncertainties in climate change. Most of the climate models have their own
limitations, which in turn, make the study of extreme weather events in
relation to climate change a huge scientific challenge. Although attempts are
being made all over the world by various research groups for improvement of
climate models, increasing the network of observation stations and simulation
of extreme events; still a lot needs to be done to improve research output and
predictability of extreme events and thus, climate change. Further, every time
anthropogenic inputs should not be blamed for every extreme event
occurring; many a times nature follows its own course which is beyond the
control of humans. However, efforts should be made to minimize the impacts
of humans on probability of extreme event.
Abbreviations
USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program

GCMs General Circulation Models
EBMs Energy Balance Models
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
137
Introduction to
Global Climate NAS National Academy of Sciences
Change
NCEC National Climate Extremes Committee
IBTrACS International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship
NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information
7.12 KEY WORDS

Drought: A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious
hydrological imbalance. A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is
defined as a meteorological drought. A megadrought is a very lengthy and
pervasive drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or
more.
Storm surge: The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of

the sea due to extreme meteorological conditions. The storm surge is defined
as being the excess above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at
that time and place

READING/REFERENCES
Web Links
• American Meteorological Society – Explaining Extreme Events in 2016

from a Climate Perspective (https://watermark.silverchair.com/bams-
explainingextremeevents2016_1.pdf)
• http://www.c2es.org/content/drought-and-climate-change/
• http://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-precipitation-and-climate-change/
• http://www.c2es.org/content/heat-waves-and-climate-change/
• https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-
weather
• https://sites.nationalacademies.org/BasedOnScience/climate-change-
global-warming-is-contributing-to-extreme-weather-events/index.htm
• https://sites.nationalacademies.org/BasedOnScience/climate-change-
humans-are-causing-global-warming
138 • https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-can-affect-extreme-
weather-but-there-is-still-a-lot-to-learn-136003 Atmosphere and
Climate
• https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-weather-and-climate-change
• https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-
extreme-weather-around-the-world
• https://www.encyclopedie-environnement.org/en/climate/extreme-
weather-events-and-climate-change/
• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events
• https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8232
• https://www.wcrp-
climate.org/images/summer_school/ICTP_2014/documents/presentations
/day1/Karoly_Extremes.pdf
• National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine –

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate
Change (2016) https://www.nap.edu/resource/21852/Attribution-
Extreme-Weather-Brief-Final.pdf
• The Science Behind It: Climate Change - National Academy of Sciences

https://thesciencebehindit.org/how-is-earths-climate-changing/
• The Science Behind It: Extreme Weather – National Academy of

Sciences (https://thesciencebehindit.org/how-is-climate-change-
affecting-heat-waves-floods-hurricanes-and-other-kinds-of-extreme-
weather/)
• U.S. Global Change Research Program – Fourth National Climate

Assessment (2018) https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
• U.S. Weather Service (1959). Rainfall intensity-frequency regime. Part 4

– North-eastern United States Hydrologic services division of the U.S.
Weather bureau (former name of the national weather service).
• Weekley, E. (1921). Extreme An etymological dictionary of modern

English, John Murray, London.

1) The threats posed by extreme heat waves include increase in frequency

and intensity of droughts; wildfires; heat island effect in urban areas due
to elevated temperatures in built-up areas of cities; impact on human
health such as dehydration, diarrhoea, fatigue, heat stroke, heat stress,
unconsciousness and even death, cardiovascular and respiratory
symptoms; economic losses and increase in pollution levels
139
Introduction to
Global Climate 2) Building infrastructure on higher platforms so that they are less prone to
Change flooding; Applying flood control infrastructure; Replacing the use of
pavement and concrete with permeable surfaces; Providing insurance
and incentives to the victims affected by floods and landslides.
1) Contributing factors to wildfire event are forest management, natural

climate variability, human activities, and other factors, in addition to
human-caused climate change.
2) Many of these extreme events are inter-related and cannot be studied in

isolation. E.g., tsunamis are triggered by earthquakes; while floods or
landslides are triggered by heavy precipitation.
140
UNIT 8 PREDICTING FUTURE CLIMATES Atmosphere and
Climate
Structure
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Objectives
8.3 Analogues from Past Climate
8.4 Climate Models
8.5 Types of Climate Models
8.5.1 Energy Balance Models (EBMs)
8.5.2 Zero-Dimensional Models
8.5.3 One-Dimensional Models
8.5.4 Radiative Convective Models

8.5.5 General Circulation Models (GCMs)
8.5.5.1 Diagnostic Climate Modelling
8.5.5.2. Prognostic Climate Modelling

8.5.6 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models
8.6 Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
8.6.1 The A1 Family
8.6.2 The A2 Family
8.6.3 The B1 Family
8.6.4 The B2 Family

8.7 Time Dependent Models
8.8 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
8.8.1 RCP8.5
8.8.2 RCP6
8.8.3 RCP4.5
8.8.4 RCP2.6
8.9 Let Us Sum Up
8.10 Key Words
8.1 INTRODUCTION
In recent years, there has been a growing concern about climate change all
across the globe. The increasing average global temperatures, the rising of
sea level and submerging of low-lying islands, the loss of biodiversity and
shrinking of hotspots all over the world have led to increasing distress about
the changing climate. Historically speaking, ever since the origin of the 141
Introduction to
Global Climate Earth, it is not the first time that the climate is changing; however, the
Change enhanced anthropogenic contribution to climate change is what makes the
entire scenario worrisome. As a result, scientists all over the world are
thinking of various strategies to understand the phenomenon of climate
change, to gain an insight about its implications and also to quantify the
changing climate by means of models. It is where the role of climate models
comes into picture. These models attempt to quantify the changing climate by
using physical laws of radiation and energy; and studying the radiation
behaviour and flux at the surface of the Earth. So, there may be regional or
global climate models to quantify the extent of change that the Earth is
undergoing in terms of climate; and also include clouds and aerosols in more
complex models for understanding their dual role in radiative forcing of the
Earth, that eventually leads to climate change. Various emission scenarios of
greenhouse gases are also discussed in this unit that have been reported by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
8.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the analogues from past climate;

• classify the different types of climate models; and
• explain the emission scenarios.
8.3 ANALOGUES FROM PAST CLIMATE

As per IPCC Report (2007), rapid climate changes have been observed in the
recent past and are further expected to increase in the near future. The
analogues approach is a novel method of testing the ground realities to the
outputs of climate models. In this approach, the analogues tool connects the
sites that are analogous (similar) to climates at sites across other geographic
locations, implying climates across space as well as time (means with respect
to historical or projected future climates). For example, if any place in the
world has the present climate that is similar to the future predicted climate
elsewhere; then these two sites can provide interesting observations on
adaptation strategies to be followed for mitigating or at least minimizing the
adverse effects of predicted climate change in future. This approach is
usually helpful for complex systems that face difficulty in climate models.
But this approach holds true only if climate is the driving force behind the
observations in differences at the two sites. In a holistic way, the analogues
approach can help to relate global models with targeted field studies
(Ramírez-Villegas et al., 2011) to explore mechanism of adaptation. Such
comparisons between sites can be used to enable farmers to develop a
knowledge framework for realising the future of site-specific agricultural
output. The analogues tool, coupled with field studies link mathematical
climate models with existing farm technologies. The analogues methodology
142
can use historical data to understand the case studies where the success or Atmosphere and
failure of adaptation mechanism can be identified. Climate
In this approach, users specify a location known as the ‘reference’ location’;

variables such as rainfall and temperature; and, one or more climate scenarios
for future-related analyses (e.g., 2020, 2030, or 2050), an SRES emissions
scenario (IPCC 2000, Moss et al. 2010), and a global climate model (GCM)
(IPCC 2007, PCMDI 2007). The temporal data for variables ranges from
hourly to yearly basis including daily or monthly data. When the tool finds
suitable global present-day analogues for the 2050 climate of a given
reference site A, the analogues tool would first use the forecast the climate
scenario and then compare the present-day climate for all sites where data
exist with A’s projected climate. The result is then compared using
dissimilarity index. Not only climatic, but other variables such as soils, crops,
and socioeconomic characteristics are also considered. The outputs are
generated for any geographic region at any resolution equal to or above 1 km,
depending on the amount of data, the computational power and the spatial
resolution of the data.
8.4 CLIMATE MODELS

A model is a qualitative and/or quantitative representation of objects or
phenomenon. Computer models that simulate Earth’s climate are called as
General Circulation Models (GCMs). Climate models use physical
parameters and processes as input to simulate past climate and predict future
climatic conditions. Various workers call climate models as an extension of
weather forecasting; except that the primary focus on time duration lies on
decades, rather than hours. These models represent mathematically the five
components of climate system- atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere,
cryosphere and biosphere based on physical and chemical principles of
thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, radiative transfer and biological
interactions. In recent years, inclusion of clouds and carbon cycle in climate
models has also been emphasized. Thus, these models can be used to
simulate changes in temperature, rainfall, winds and oceanic circulations over
long periods. However, these models being based on assumptions and
mathematical algorithms have certain limitations in simulating the Earth’s
climate which is complex and in dynamic state of flux. Nevertheless, these
models have improved greatly in the last few years to provide better insight
into future climate. The accuracy of these models can be tested by assessing
their ability to simulate past or present climates. The climate models are an
important tool for understanding how climate might change, rather than will
change, based on quantitative and scientific measurements. Normally,
“scientists validate their models by comparing them against real-world
observations or testing against past changes in the Earth’s climate
(‘hindcasts’) such as temperature, rainfall, snow, hurricane formation, sea
ice extent and many other climate variables. Also, it has been observed that
the average of all models can be more accurate than most individual models 143
Introduction to
Global Climate in terms of higher reliability and consistency when several independent
Change models are combined” (https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-
models-work).
8.5 TYPES OF CLIMATE MODELS

The best models of climate change have been used by Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to develop climate change scenarios. The
two primary models used to project changes in climate were developed at
Canadian Climate Centre, and Hadley Centre in United Kingdom.
Other climate models have been developed at:
A) National Centre for Atmospheric Research

B) NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
C) NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
D) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany
Although these models work on similar principles; however, the output from
these models vary based on inputs provided for these models as well as the
uncertainties in emissions of greenhouse gases. For example, the Hadley
model projects wetter climate than Canadian model; while the latter projects
higher temperatures over US. In general, almost all climate models predict
higher increase in temperature at regions in middle to high latitudes since the
melted ice and snow in these regions decrease reflectance; thus, allowing for
greater absorption of heat in these regions. These models predict that the net
effect of adding greenhouse gases and fossil fuel combustion results in
producing a warmer climate. IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1°C to 6.4°C
between 1900 and 2100. Thus, it becomes imperative to understand the
differences in model projections for interpreting the results from the models.
Some models have been discussed below:
8.5.1 Energy Balance Models (EBMs)

These models calculate surface temperature as a variable for climate by
considering the balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing solar
energy in the form of heat released back to space.
8.5.2 Zero-dimensional Models

These models considerthe entire Earth as a whole unit; essentially, as a single
point. For example, a simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth
as a single point and averages outgoing energy.
8.5.3 One-dimensional Models

Besides treating Earth as a one unit, these models includethe transfer of
energy across different latitudes of the Earth’s surface. Further, one-
144 dimensional model can be represented by the following equation:
(1 − �)�� = 4�� Atmosphere and
Climate
where,
(1 − �)�� refers to the incoming energy from the sun
4�� represents the outgoing energy from the sun calculated from Stefan
Boltzman’s constant using constant radiative temperature T
S is the solar constant = 1367W/m2
�is Earth’s average albedo (~ 0.3)
r is the Earth’s radius, approximately 6.371×106m
e is effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612
s is Stefan Boltzman’s Constant, approximately 5.67×10-8JK-4m-2s-1
T is the Radiative temperature (K).
If we factor out πr2, then
(1 − �)� = 4��
The above equation represents the effective radiative temperature of the Earth
and yields an average Earth temperature of 288K. This model determines the
effect of changes in solar output or albedo or earth’s emissivity on surface
temperature. However, these one-dimensional models do not look into the
issue of temperature distribution on Earth or the factors responsible for
circulation of energy about the Earth.
8.5.4 Radiative Convective Models

These models are refinement of one-dimensional model that they can
determine the effects of varying concentrations of greenhouse gases on
emissivity and hence the surface temperature. Further, these models simulate
the transfer of energy through the altitudes of the atmosphere by Radiative
transfer or convection for transport of heat. Radiative Convective Models
can calculate the temperature and humidity of different layers of the
atmosphere.
8.5.5 General Circulation Models (GCMs)

These models are also called Global Climate Models, and are four –
dimensional (4-D) models (including time as a parameter) which simulate the
climate based on physical laws, the flows of air and water in the atmosphere
and/or the oceans, as well as the transfer of heat. Earlier GCMs focussed on
only one component of atmosphere, may be only atmosphere or oceans.
The first general circulation climate model combining both atmospheric and
oceanic processes was developed by NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory in 1960s. Early GCMs only simulated one aspect of the Earth 145
Introduction to
Global Climate system – such as in “atmosphere-only” or “ocean-only” models – but they did
Change this in three dimensions, incorporating many kilometres of height in the
atmosphere or depth of the oceans in dozens of model layers.
A global climate model (GCM) is a complex mathematical representation of

the major climate system components mentioned below:
A) The atmospheric component- simulates clouds and aerosols.

B) The land surface component- vegetation, snow cover, and water bodies.
C) The ocean component- simulates current movement and biogeochemistry
D) The sea ice component- It modulates solar radiation absorption and air-
sea heat and water exchanges.
These climate models divide the globe into a three-dimensional grid of cells,
and equations for each component (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea
ice) are calculated on the global grid for a set of climate variables such as
temperature; as well as exchange fluxes of heat, water, and momentum. The
grid size is dependent upon the computing power and the capability of the
computer to solve these equations. If the resolution is fine, that means higher
number of grid cells are required; while for farther spaced grid cells, lesser
calculations are required; but even the details are less comprehensive.
Further, there are two types of processes within climate models - simulated
and parameterized. Simulated processes are larger than grid-scale and based
on principles such as conservation of energy, mass, and momentum. An
example of a simulated process is the model representing tropical cyclones
and storm activity. Parameterized processes represent processes that are
smaller than grid scale, and use both scientific principles as well as use of
observational data. An example of a parameterized process is model that
represents cloud and aerosol composition.
For parameterisation of climate models, the Earth is divided into grid cells
and the average climate for each grid cell is calculated. However, various
processes such as height of landscape or presence of clouds occur at much
smaller scale than the size of grid, and hence may be overlooked. To rectify
such errors in a model, these variables are “parameterised”, implying that
their values are defined in the computer code rather than being calculated by
the model itself. A few examples include scattering by aerosols, snow cover,
evaporation, condensation, soil properties, rain, surface roughness and so on.
In many cases, it is not possible to narrow down parameterised variables into

a single value, so the model needs to include estimation. Scientists run tests
with the model to find the value – or range of values – that allows the model
to give the best representation of the climate. Examples for the same include
tuning model for albedo, sea ice extent and absolute temperatures.
After tuning, the next important step in a climate model is reducing the
146
‘biases’ generated as a result of deviations of simulations from the observed
climate. These biases occur because models are a simplification of the Atmosphere and
climate system and the large-scale grid cells that global models use can miss Climate
the detail of the local climate. This generally occurs in case of regional or
local simulations. Typically, bias correction is applied only to model output,
but in the past, it has also been used within runs of models.
As such, GCMs are critical tools to improve the understanding and prediction
of climate change. The uses for climate modelling include diagnosis and
prognosis.
8.5.5.1 Diagnostic Climate modelling

It includes detection and attribution.
a) Detection
It is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined

sense without providing a reason for that change.
b) Attribution
It is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change
with some defined level of confidence.
An example of diagnostic climate modelling is the role of anthropogenic

forcing in 20th century climate change.
8.5.5.2 Prognostic climate modelling

It predicts future climate, such as global warming trends, using current or
historic data (ocean structure, radiative forcing, etc.) as a basis. Timescales
for projection include seasonal/inter-annual variability, decadal prediction,
and 21st century scenarios.
Thus, although we are well aware of the fact the computation of climate
modelling is very intensive; however, complex algorithms and increased
computing power would help in better simulations and parameterized
processes, as well as reliable climate change projections.
8.5.6 Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models

The coupled models are sophisticated as they factor in multiple models. The
purpose of the coupled models is to represent the functioning of climate
system in an inclusive manner. For instance, the coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation models (or “AOGCMs”) can at best simulate the
exchange of heat and freshwater between the land and ocean surface and the
air above.
A major concern with climate models is that with the diversity of climate
models, it becomes difficult to compare the results of different models since
the approach of each model is difficult. As a result, Coupled Model Inter-
comparison Project (“CMIP”) has been developed as a framework for climate 147
Introduction to
Global Climate model experiments, to analyse and validate GCMs. These are coupled
Change atmosphere-ocean GCMs that aim to bring an improvement and homogeneity
into all the climate models. Earlier, CMIP focused on modelling atmospheric
CO2 concentrations; later it incorporated more detailed Representative
Concentration Pathways (‘RCPs’). To rule out the differences in the output
using different models, the results of various models are loaded on a central
web portal, managed by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and
Intercomparison (PCMDI) that can be freely accessed by scientists all over
the world. The Working Group on Coupled Modelling committee is
responsible for CMIP. It is a constituent of the World Climate Research
Programme (WCRP) based at the World Meteorological Organization in
Geneva. Currently, CMIP6 is underway that comprises of 21 individual
Model Intercomparison Projects, or “MIPs”.
1) What are zero-dimensional Models?
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2) What is the objective of CMIP?
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8.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS

Different climate models project different values for rise in temperature, by
next decade or next 50 to 100 years. This extreme gap between various
climate models could be attributed to two factors:
• Climate models are unable to factor in the effects of clouds. The clouds
are composed of an important greenhouse gas called water vapour, that
traps the heat; as well as exert cooling effect by blocking sun’s rays from
reaching the earth’s surface. Therefore, it is not clear as to which of the
148 dual role these clouds play in modifying the climate. Thus, inclusion of
these clouds generates some error in results, which may amount to 1 to Atmosphere and
2°C error on a prediction for 2100. Climate
• Further, a second aspect that needs to be taken into account is not only
the current amount of greenhouse gases; but also, the amount of
greenhouse gases that would be added to the atmosphere due to
anthropogenic inputs.
Since such an impact of clouds and greenhouse gases would vary according
to different human inputs; therefore, scientists are using the term “emission
scenarios”, to describe the behaviour of greenhouse gases emissions. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established
by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) to “assess the scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of
human-induced climate change”. Since its inception, the IPCC has produced
a series of comprehensive Assessment Reports on the state of understanding
of causes of climate change, its potential impacts and options for response
strategies. It prepared also Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies
and guidelines. These IPCC publications have become standard work of
reference, widely used by policymakers, scientists and other experts. In 1992,
the IPCC released emission scenarios to be used for driving global circulation
models to develop climate change scenarios. IPCC has developed emission
scenarios for long term in 1990 and 1992. The Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in 2000. The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios described
in the Report have been used to make projections of possible future climate
change. IPCC has in fact described about 40 scenarios which are grouped
mainly into four main families - A1, A2, B1, B2; and they reflect a particular
trajectory (evolution) of humanity, and the important hypothesis (concerning
demography, agricultural practices, technology spreading, etc.) are then
turned into “food production” and “consumption of energy” using models.
The IS92 scenarios were the first global scenarios to provide estimates for the
greenhouse gases. Therefore, the IPCC decided in 1996 to develop a new set
of emissions scenarios which will be of broader use than the IS92 scenarios.
The new scenarios provide also input for evaluating climatic and
environmental consequences of future greenhouse gas emissions and for
assessing alternative mitigation and adaptation strategies.
8.6.1 The A1 family

The A1 family is based on the following hypothesis:
• Increased economic growth;

• the world population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter;
• introduction of new and efficient technologies;
• underlying theme converge between regions; 149
Introduction to
Global Climate • social and cultural interactions increase rapidly;
Change
• A1 scenario family describes alternative directions of technological
change in the energy system; that are distinguished by their technological
emphasis:
• fossil intensive (A1FI),
• non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or
• Balance across all sources (A1B).
This A1 family scenario explains that there would be increased energy

consumption and exhausting of limits for fossil fuels (except coal). Besides,
the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 comes close to 1100 ppm.
8.6.2 The A2 family

The A2 family is based on the following hypothesis:
• Continuously increasing world population;

• Evolution of the world in a heterogeneous manner;
• economic growth is region oriented;
• spreading of new efficient technologies is slower and are very different
depending on the region of the world;
• The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities.
8.6.3 The B1 family

The B1 family is based on the following hypothesis:
• the world peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter;

• the economic structures directed towards service and information
technologies;
• rapid dissemination of new, clean and efficient technologies; and
• addressing economic, social and environmental problems without any
supplementary climate initiative.
Hence, this scenario suggests significant additional resources in oil and gas
compared to present times, and development of nuclear energy. Also, it
predicts the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2100 near about 450 ppm.
8.6.4 The B2 family

The B2 family exemplifies a world where:
• World population reaches 10 billion people by 2100.

• In this family of scenarios, the sustainability from the spheres of
economic, social and environmental perspectives are emphasised through
local solutions;
150
• Economic development is intermediate; Atmosphere and
Climate
• Oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses
on local and regional levels; and
• Development and transfer of efficient technologies in B2 family is quite
uneven.
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in this scenario reaches about

740 ppm.
Fig. 8.1Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios (A Special Report of IPCC Working Group
III, IPCC, 2000)
8.7 TIME DEPENDENT MODELS

The emissions and radiative forcing scenarios described include a component
of time: i.e., by what quantity would the climate change and what would be
the time duration for the same. However, the magnitude of human-induced
climate change depends more on the net carbon emitted into the atmosphere
rather than average annual emissions.
Analysing all the above scenarios reveals that none of them account for
extreme events such as nuclear war or a massive outbreak. Further, though
they are in limited numbers, these scenarios lead to very different patterns for
the greenhouse gases emissions and concentrations during the coming
century. The IS92a scenario is an older scenario that was used for the
1995 IPCC report. For a given emission scenario, the various models do not
differ by more than 1 to 2 °C for the predicted temperature increase in 2100.
In effect, different social, economic and technological developments have a

151
Introduction to
Global Climate strong impact on emission trends, and the scenarios provide important
Change understanding about relationship between environmental quality and
development choices. This will greatly aid policy builders and decision
makers for appropriate climate interventions.
8.8 REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION

PATHWAYS (RCPs)
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a set of scenarios that
have been used in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for predicting future
climate scenario based on climate models. Since these models were
developed to represent possible future concentration of greenhouse gas
emissions by including a pathway that represents the trajectory of GHG
emissions to reach a particular radiative forcing by 2100; hence the name
Representative Concentration Pathways. Radiative forcing is a measure of the
energy that is absorbed and retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases
and aerosols. Thus, it can be positive (heating) or negative (cooling) and is
affected by concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, changes in land
cover and total solar irradiance. RCP was adopted by IPCC in its Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) that superseded Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) projections based on socio-economic scenarios that were
used in Third and Fourth IPCC Assessment Reports. The basic difference lies
in the fact that RCPs fix the emissions trajectory and resultant radiative
forcing rather than the socio-economic circumstances. Thus, these RCPs can
then be used to test policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation to climate
change. There are the following four pathways based on the amount of
radiative forcing produced by greenhouse gases till 2100
(https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/492978e6-d26b-
4202-ae51-5eba10c0b51a/files/wa-rcp-fact-sheet.pdf).
8.8.1 RCP8.5
• According to this pathway, the radiative forcing reaches greater than 8.5
W/m² by 2100.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2100 would be 936 ppm
(used as input in most model simulations).
• The average temperature increase for 2081-2100, relative to 1850-1900
baseline as per this model is 4.3°C while the likely range of temperature
increase is 3.2-5.4°C.
• The average global mean sea level rise for 2081-2100, relative to 1986-
2005 is 0.63 m while the probable range is 0.45-0.82m.
• It is based on minimum efforts to reduce emissions.
8.8.2 RCP6
• In this intermediate stabilisation pathway, the radiative forcing is
152
stabilised at approximately 6 W/m² after 2100. Atmosphere and
Climate
• The average temperature increase for 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900
is 2.0-3.7°C.
• The average global mean sea level rise for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-
2005 is 0.48 m while the probable range is 0.33-0.63m
• It requires strong mitigation efforts, with early participation from all
emitters followed by active removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
8.8.3 RCP4.5
• In this intermediate stabilisation pathway, the radiative forcing is
stabilised at approximately 4.5 W/m² after 2100.
is 1.7-3.2°C.
2005 is 0.47 m while the probable range is 0.32-0.63m.
8.8.4 RCP2.6
• In this pathway, the radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W m-2
before 2100 and then declines.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2100 would be 421ppm
is 0.9-2.3°C
2005 is 0.40m while the probable range is 0.26-0.55m.
• It is also referred to as RCP3-PD. (PD stands for Peak and Decline).
• RCP2.6 aims to keep warming likely below 2°C above pre-industrial
temperatures.
1) What is emission scenario?

153
Introduction to
Global Climate ……………………………………………………………………………
Change
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2) What are the four main families of emission scenario?
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8.9 LET US SUM UP

The increasing average global temperatures, the rising of sea level and
submerging of low-lying islands, the loss of biodiversity and shrinking of
hotspots all over the world have led to increasing distress about the changing
climate. The complexity in the climate change issue compelled the scientists
all over the world to device strategies to understand the phenomenon of
climate change, to gain an insight about its implications and also to quantify
the changing climate by means of models. In this regard, the climate models
are very important. The climate models attempt to quantify the changing
climate by using physical laws of radiation and energy; and studying the
radiation behaviour and flux at the surface of the Earth. There are variety of
models that include regional or global climate models to quantify the extent
of change that the Earth is undergoing in terms of climate.
We have studied in this unit about the role of climate models in predicting the
future climate. Further, we have discussed the importance of climate
analogues in climate change studies, and emission scenarios.
Acronyms
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
GCMs: General Circulation Models
EBMs: Energy Balance Models
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
AOGCMs: Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models
CMIP: Model Inter-comparison Project
RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways
154
WCRP: World Climate Research Programme Atmosphere and
Climate
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme
8.10 KEY WORDS

Climate Models: A model is a qualitative and/or quantitative representation
of objects or phenomenon. Computer models that simulate Earth’s climate
are called as General Circulation Models (GCMs). Climate models use
physical parameters and processes as input to simulate past climate and
predict future climatic conditions.
Energy Balance Models (EBMs): Energy Balance Modelscalculate surface

temperature as a variable for climate by considering the balance between
incoming solar energy and outgoing solar energy in the form of heat released
back to space.
Detection: Detection of change is defined as the process of demonstrating

that climate or a system affected by climate has changed in some defined
statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change.
Attribution: Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative

contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an
assignment of statistical confidence.
Emission scenario: A plausible representation of the future development of

emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active based on a
coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces
(such as demographic and socio-economic development, technological
change) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from
emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate
projections.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Scenarios that include

time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse
gases and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land
cover.

READING/REFERENCES
IPCC (2000).Summary for Policymakers Emissions Scenarios.A Special
Report of IPCC Working Group III.Published for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Based on a draft prepared by: Nebojsa
Nakicenovic, Ogunlade Davidson, Gerald Davis, Arnulf Grubler, Tom Kram,
Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Bert Metz, Tsuneyuki Morita, William Pepper,
Hugh Pitcher, Alexei Sankovski, Priyadarshi Shukla, Robert Swart, Robert
Watson, Zhou Dadi. ISBN: 92-9169-113-5.
IPCC (2007). IPCC fourth assessment report: climatechange 2007 (AR4). 155
Introduction to
Global Climate Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
Change
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren
DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB,
Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP,
Wilbanks TJ, 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change
research and assessment. Nature 463(7282):747–756.
PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison). 2007.

IPCC model output. Lawrence, CA, USA: PCMDI. (Available from
http://www.pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php)
Ramírez-Villegas J, Lau C, Köhler A-K, Signer J, Jarvis A, Arnell N,

Osborne T, Hooker J. 2011. Climate analogues: finding tomorrow’s
agriculture today. Working Paper no. 12. Cali, Colombia: CGIAR. Research
Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org.
Swen P. M. Bos, Tim Pagella, Roeland Kindt, Aaron J. M. Russell and Eike
Luedeling (2015). Climate analogs for agricultural impact projection and
adaptation—a reliability test. Front. Environ. Sci., |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00065
Web Links
https://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/predicting-the-future/what-is-an-
emission-scenario-is-it-important-for-the-future/
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/
https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/492978e6-d26b-
4202-ae51-5eba10c0b51a/files/wa-rcp-fact-sheet.pdf
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog_held/time-dependent-climate-sensitivity/
AnnexII_FINAL.pdf

1) These models considerthe entire Earth as a whole unit; or as a single

156 point. For example, a simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the
earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy Atmosphere and
Climate
2) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has been developed as a
framework for climate model experiments, to analyse and validate
GCMs; and bring an improvement and homogeneity into all the climate
models.
1) The behaviour of greenhouse gases as modelled by climate models is

emission scenario.
2) The four main families of emission scenario are A1, A2, B1, B2; and
reflects a particular evolution of humanity, and the main hypothesis
concerning demography, agricultural practices and technology spreading.
157
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
158
Atmosphere and
Climate
BLOCK 3
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
159
Introduction to
Change
Climate change is caused due to emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere. The effects of global warming have been experienced by
humans, animals and plants alike. In this block, we will discuss the impact of
climate change on agriculture, ocean ecosystem, mountain and hill
ecosystems and human health. In this block, the two-way link between
climate change and agriculture is discussed. Changing climate will impact
agricultural productivity and production. Climate change influences many
properties of the ocean, while changes in the ocean also play a central role in
regulating weather on local to global scales. The ocean has huge thermal
inertia and dynamic capabilities. Being a huge reservoir of heat, the ocean
plays as a moderator of climatic variations. It controls the formation of wind
and rain. The ocean also traps and stores carbon dioxide (CO2), thereby
preventing an extreme greenhouse effect in the atmosphere. Increased ocean
stratification, changes in ocean current regimes and an increase in depleted
oxygen zones are now being observed due to climate change. Climate change
also impacts the mountain ecosystem. Mountain and hill ecosystems are also
characterized by their unique type of vegetation, floral and faunal diversity as
well as distinct living habitats. This diversity itself varies with the altitude of
mountains, with taller trees being found at lower altitudes giving way to
shorter trees, grasslands etc. at higher altitudes. The highest altitudes of
mountains are completely devoid of any vegetation. The consequences of
climate change on the mountain ecosystem include glacier melting,
cloudburst and flash floods, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). This
block also discusses the impacts of climate change on human health.
Unit 9 “Agriculture” provides an overview of the effects of agriculture on the
environment and the impacts of climate change on agriculture.
Unit 10 “Ocean Ecosystem” deals with the response of the ocean ecosystem
to climate change; the effects of climate change on the physical, chemical and
biological properties of the ocean; and thevulnerability of marine organisms
to climate change.
Unit 11 “Mountain and hill ecosystems” deals with the formation of glaciers
and the impacts of glacier melting on rivers and water availability.
Unit 12 “Human Health” deals with the linkages between weather and
climate to human health, the direct and indirect effects of climate change on
human health, and the impacts of climate change on migration and
livelihoods.
Objectives
• explain the effects of agriculture on the environment;
• discuss the effects of climate change on agriculture;
• explain the adaptation strategies to climate change;
• explain the response of the ocean ecosystem to climate change;
160
• explain the effects of climate change on the physical, chemical and Atmosphere and
biological properties of the ocean; Climate
• explain thevulnerability and migration patternof marine organisms to

climate change;
• discuss the impacts of glacier melting on rivers and water availability;
• describe the reasons for flash floods and their impacts;
• understand the linkages between weather and climate to human health;
• describe the direct and indirect effects of climate change on human
health; and
• explain the impacts of climate change on migration and livelihoods.
the impacts of climate change.
161
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
162
UNIT 9 AGRICULTURE Atmosphere and
Climate
Structure
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Objectives
9.3 Impacts of Agriculture on Environment
9.3.1 Water Pollution
9.3.2 Air Pollution
9.3.3 Effects on Biodiversity

9.4 Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas emissions
9.4.1 Agriculture as a Source of Greenhouse Gases
9.5 Changing Climate
9.6 Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture
9.6.1 Monsoon Dependent Agriculture
9.6.2 Enhanced CO2 on Crop Growth

9.6.3 Weeds, Pests and Diseases
9.6.4 Crop Quality
9.6.5 Livestock
9.6.6 Prices, Production and Food consumption
9.6.7 Per capita calorie consumption and Child Malnutrition

9.7 Agriculture as a Sink for Greenhouse Gases
9.7.1 Mitigation of GHG emission from Agriculture
9.8 Adaptation to Climate Change
9.9 Let Us Sum Up
9.10 Key Words
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Climate change is caused due to emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere. The heat trapped by the radiatively active gases causes global
warming. The effects of global warming have been experienced by human,
animals and plants alike. In this unit, we will deal with climate change and
agriculture. There is a two-way link between climate change and agriculture.
While, it is well acknowledged that change in the world climate is likely to
have an impact on agriculture and food security across the globe, agricultural
practices are also known to have an impact on climate change. A large
portion of the world’s agriculture is rainfed and changes in climate play an
important role in determining productivity in these regions.This unit will give 163
Introduction to
Global Climate you an overview of effects of agriculture on environment; and impacts of
Change climate change on agriculture.
9.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the effects of agriculture on environment;

• discuss the effects of climate change on agriculture; and
• explain the adaptation strategies to climate change.
9.3 IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURE ON

ENVIRONMENT
Agriculture has a vast impact on environment through land degradation,
salinisation, the over-extraction of water and the reduction of genetic
diversity in crops and livestock. Thus, crop and livestock have a huge impact
on the overall environment. Cropping practices are the main source of water
pollution by nitrates, phosphates and pesticides. Similarly, livestock is the
major anthropogenic source of the greenhouse gases methane and nitrous
oxide, and contribute on a massive scale to other types of air and water
pollution. FAO, in its summary report titled World Agriculture: Towards
2015/2030 describes about how agriculture affects environment (FAO, 2002).
Some important points from the report have been summarised below:
9.3.1 Water Pollution

Pollution of water by pesticides and other plant protection chemicals is a
major challenge in most of the developed and developing countries. This
happens due to excessive use of plant protection chemicals. These chemical
especially nitrates and phosphates get leached into groundwater or are carried
off by runoffs into waterways. This nutrient overload causes what is termed
as eutrophication of lakes, reservoirs and ponds, leading to excessive growth
of algae which suppress other aquatic plants and animals. Up to half the
nitrogen applied in China, is lost by volatilization and another 5 to 10 percent
by leaching. Pesticides and herbicides also disturb the biodiversity of an area
by destroying all weeds and insects which would have formed food for birds
and other animals. Though the pesticides use has reduced in most of the
countries over time, the use of herbicides is still on a rise in most countries.
In developed countries, their rampant use is checked by imposing regulations
and taxes. These days, there is also an increase in the demand for organic
crops which are produced without the use of chemical inputs.
9.3.2 Air Pollution

Agriculture is the dominant anthropogenic source of ammonia which causes
air pollution. Livestock account for about 40 percent of global emissions,
164 mineral fertilizers for 16 percent and biomass burning and crop residues for
about 18 percent. Ammonia being more acidifying than sulphur dioxide and Atmosphere and
nitrogen oxides is one of the major causes of acid rain, which damages trees, Climate
acidifies soils, lakes and rivers, and damages biodiversity. Animal excreta is
a predominant source of ammonia emission and is likely to continue rising in
both developed and developing countries. Agriculture is also responsible for
up to half of all methane emissions. Methane persists for a shorter time in the
atmosphere as compared to carbon dioxide but it is twenty times more
powerful in its warming effect. Current annual anthropogenic emissions of
methane are around 540 million tonnes and are growing at around 5 percent
per year. Livestock contributes to about a quarter of methane emissions, by
way of gut fermentation and the decay of excreta. Methane emissions from
livestock are likely to increase with the growing livestock numbers. Another
main source of methane is irrigated rice farming, accounting for about a fifth
of total anthropogenic emissions. Agriculture is also a key source of yet
another important greenhouse gas i.e. nitrous oxide. Though generated
naturally, it is boosted by leaching, volatilization and runoff of nitrogen
fertilizers, and by the breakdown of crop residues and animal wastes.
Livestock account for about half of anthropogenic emissions. Annual nitrous
oxide emissions from agriculture are projected to grow by 50 percent by
2030. Biomass burning results in carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and smoke
particles which are by-products of biomass burning. Biomass burning in the
form of burning forests, pastures and crop residues either to promote re-
growth or to destroy pest habitats is a common activity. Projections suggest
that, by 2030, emissions of ammonia and methane from the livestock sector
of developing countries could be at least 60 percent higher than at present.
9.3.3 Effects on Biodiversity

One of the biggest challenges facing mankind today is to feed the ever-
increasing population. In their attempt to meet this challenge, human beings
are resorting to activities like deforestation, field consolidation, reduction in
field margins and hedgerows, and drainage of wetlands in order to bring
more and more land under cultivation. This activity is causing loss of
biodiversity by destroying habitats of several plant and animal species. Many
species have become extinct and still many are on the verge of extinction.
Besides, removing the vegetation cover also exposes the top soil to soil
erosion. Excessive grazing lowers the richness of fodder species. Intensive
agriculture and excessive use of pesticides and herbicides reduces insects and
plants which would otherwise have been food for higher animals.
9.4 AGRICULTURE AND GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSION
According to FAO estimates, if steps are not taken to reduce the greenhouse
gas emission due to agriculture, the emissions from agriculture, forestry and
fisheries which have more than doubled during the last 50 years will increase
by an additional 30 percent by 2050. The emissions from agriculture and 165
Introduction to
Global Climate livestock production increased from 4.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
Change equivalents in 2001 to over 5.3 billion tonnes in 2011.
9.4.1 Agriculture as a Source of Greenhouse Gases

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible
for about 10–12 gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year. GHGs from
agriculture are primarily due to land use and land use changes and forestry
related activities, enteric fermentation in ruminants, biomass and biofuel
burning, lowland paddy cultivation, and use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers
(Lipper et al. 2014; Smith et al. 2014; Venkatramanan and Shah 2019).
Enteric fermentation is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emission
in agriculture. During enteric fermentation, the carbohydrates are broken
down by microorganisms in the digestive tract of the ruminants, producing
methane as a by-product. This methane is released in the atmosphere via
belches. In 2011, it accounted for 39 percent of the total GHG emission of the
agricultural sector.
Soil microbes convert nitrogen rich fertilizers into nitrous oxide, a

greenhouse gas which has 300 times as much heat trapping power as that of
carbon dioxide. When there is an overload of nitrogenous fertilizers, the soil
microbes may release high levels of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. In
2011, emissions generated during the application of synthetic fertilizers
accounted for 13 percent of agricultural emissions.
Rice farming is also one of the major contributors to greenhouse gasses.

Methane is emitted in large quantities by the bacteria in the waterlogged soil
from rice fields which are flooded. Nitrous oxide is another GHG that is
produced by soil microbes in the rice fields. These gases generated from rice
fields make upto 10 percent of the total GHG emissions from agriculture.
In 2011, 44 percent of agriculture-related GHG outputs occurred in Asia,

followed by the Americas (25%), Africa (15%), Europe (12%), and Oceania
(4%), according to FAO's data. This regional distribution was fairly constant
over the last decade. In 1990 however, Asia's contribution to the global total
(38%) was smaller than at present, while Europe's was much larger (21%)
(FAO, 2014).
9.5 CHANGING CLIMATE

Climate variability has ripple effects on crop production, food prices and
food security at local and global levels. Production shocks in one part of the
world can have immense impact on the food prices and hence food security
of various parts of the world due to the market dynamics. Sudden changes in
food prices could be particularly harsh on the food security of the poor who
spend a large chunk of their income on food. Understanding the nature of
changing weather patterns is particularly important for this very reason.
166
Changing Temperatures Atmosphere and
Climate
“Global surface temperatures have risen by almost a degree in the last
century. Sea levels have risen, while snow and ice cover has dropped
significantly. Coral reefs are being destroyed and weather patterns are
becoming wilder and less predictable. And the major cause of this climatic
mayhem is now clear. It is the work of humans, who are burning ever
increasing amounts of fossil fuel and have raised carbon dioxide levels in the
atmosphere by 40% in the past 250 years” (McKie, 2013).
The plant and animal species specific to a particular region are a reflection of
the climate to which they are adapted. Once a change in their natural climate
occurs, they tend to migrate to areas having more favourable environment.
Species that are less mobile are the worst affected as they have to suffer a
loss of their habitat combined with competition from new invading species.
This results in such species becoming extinct and as a result there is loss in
biodiversity.
Changing Precipitation
With increase in temperature due to global warming, the air becomes warm,
resulting in more evaporation of water from the Earth’s surface. Higher
evaporation translates to higher precipitation. On average, the world is
already getting more precipitation now than it did 100 years ago: 6 percent
more in the United States and nearly 2 percent more worldwide (US EPA,
2013). Precipitation is expected to lower in areas near equator and increase in
higher latitudes. The changing rainfall pattern can cause the pests and weeds
to spread to newer areas.
El Nino and La Nina
El Nino phenomenon occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean is primarily due

to the build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The warm ocean
surface enables the moisture laden winds to form rainstorms. On the other
hand, La Nina occurs due to the building up of cool Ocean waters in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. The cool ocean surface leads to cooling of the
atmosphere leading to lesser evaporation of water and making the air dry.
“El Niño and La Niña reflect the two end points of an oscillation in the
Pacific Ocean. The cycle is not fully understood, but the times series
illustrates that the cycle swings back and forth every 3-7 years. Often, El
Niño is followed immediately by La Niña, as if the warm water is sloshing
back and forth across the Pacific. The development of El Niño events is
linked to the trade winds. El Niño occurs when the trade winds are weaker
than normal, and La Niña occurs when they are stronger than normal. Both
cycles typically peak in December” (NASA, 2009).
167
Introduction to
Global Climate 9.6 EFFECTS OF CIMATE CHANGE ON
Change
AGRICULTURE
Agriculture, livestock and fisheries are highly dependent on specific climatic
conditions. Crops need specific conditions to thrive like right kind of soil,
specific temperature, and enough water. Changes in climate could make it
difficult for us to grow crops and rear livestock in the way and at places, we
used to do in the past. Climate change and variability has potential to
influence crop geography, crop production and productivity, and exacerbate
the risks associated with crop farming activities (Scherr et al. 2012;
Venkatramanan and Shah 2019). IPCC Assessment reports reiterate the
gravity of climate change impacts on agricultural production and productivity
in several agricultural regions of the world, and firmly expressed the
vulnerability of developing countries and island and low-lying countries to
negative impacts of climate change (IPCC 2014). Impacts from extreme
weather events like droughts and floods, heat and cold waves, must be reckon
with in the coming decades through devising appropriate climate resilient
pathways (Venkatramanan and Shah 2019).
“Research has shown that crop yields reduce in response to extreme daytime
temperatures particularly around 30°C. High daytime and night time
temperature was reported to reduce the growth, yield and quality of rice and
wheat crops which are the staple food crops of South Asia” (Venkatramanan
and Singh 2009a, b; Venkatramanan and Shah 2019). “Estimated impacts of
both historical and future climate change on cereal crop yields shows that
yield loss can be up to 35% for rice, 20% for wheat, 50% for sorghum, 13%
for barley, and 60% for maize depending on the geographic location, climate
scenarios and projected year” (Porter et al. 2014; Khatri-Chhetri et al. 2017).
The negative effects of climate change on “food production, food prices and
accessibility, consumption and utilization” result in marked effect on “all the
dimensions of food security” (Porter et al. 2014). Further, climate change on
account of its effects on “access to drinking water, income, health, sanitation,
income and food supply chain” exacerbate the food insecurity. FAO (2009)
reports that vulnerable, and disadvantaged group in particular the small and
marginal farmers and food insecure are most likely to be the first affected
from climate change (FAO 2009).
9.6.1 Monsoon Dependent Agriculture

The International Food Policy Research Institute (Gerald C. Nelson, 2009)
conducted research to “quantify the climate-change impacts on agricultural
production, consumption, prices and trade”. To meet this end, the study
employed a “global agricultural supply and demand projection model” and
“biophysical crop model” to assess the impact of climate change on five
important crops: “rice, wheat, maize, soyabean and groundnut”. The results
of the study on various aspects of agriculture have been summarized below:
168
According to the study, while the crop yields in the rainfed region are Atmosphere and
influenced both by rainfall and increases in temperature, the irrigated crop Climate
yields are influenced only by temperature factor. The study further points out
that in case of developing countries, while the crop yield declines are found
across most crops, the irrigated crops of rice and wheat are more vulnerable
to climate change. In the regions like East Asia and Pacific region, higher
temperature in fact increases crop acreage as the potential temperature
increase provide congenial crop growth environment than the present
environmental condition. South Asian region will be affected more by
climate change, as the study found yield declines for most of the crops.
Nevertheless, rainfed maize and wheat crops are more vulnerable to climate
change. The results for the Latin American and Caribbean region, and Sub-
Saharan Africa were mixed in terms of yields of crops grown in these
regions.
9.6.2 Enhanced CO2 on Crop Growth

“Crop species vary in their response to CO2. Wheat, rice, and soybeans
belong to a physiological class (called C3 plants) that respond readily to
increased CO2 levels. Corn, sorghum, sugarcane, and millet are C4
plants that follow a different pathway. The latter, though more efficient
photosynthetically than C3 crops at present levels of CO2, tend to be less
responsive to enriched concentrations. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 also
induce plants to close the small leaf openings known as stomata through
which CO2 is absorbed and water vapour is released... Thus, under
CO2 enrichment, crops may use less water even while they produce more
carbohydrates. This dual effect will likely improve water-use efficiency,
which is the ratio between crop biomass and the amount of water consumed.
At the same time, associated climatic effects, such as higher temperatures,
changes in rainfall and soil moisture, and increased frequencies of extreme
meteorological events, could either enhance or negate potentially beneficial
effects of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on crop physiology”. (Hillel, 1995).
9.6.3 Weeds, Pests and Diseases

Increased CO2 leads to strong vegetative growth in both crops and weeds
alike as a result of which weeds become more prolific and are expected to
spread to newer places. There are also studies which prove that higher levels
of CO2 lead to herbicide resistance as a result of which more and more
herbicides have to be applied. This may also have serious health implications
in time to come. Besides, higher temperatures are favourable for insects and
pest proliferation. Longer growing seasons will enable insects and pests to
complete larger number of reproductive cycles. Changed wind patterns would
lead to spread of wind-borne pests and diseases to newer areas. Warmer
winter temperatures may shorten the overwintering period of pest larvae
resulting in higher proliferation in the next season. Thus, an increase in
weeds, pests and diseases could soon be a problem calling for immediate
169
Introduction to
Global Climate action.
Change
9.6.4 Crop Quality
Food systems can be vulnerable to climate change. Grain quality of wheat
(e.g., protein content) is highly susceptible to current variations in
climate and affects the type of foods that can be produced through, for
example, gluten levels and related dough strength (Porter & Semenov
2005). Other examples of the effects of climate on crop quality include
pests and diseases, such as dangerous levels of mycotoxin contamination
of groundnuts (Julia M Slingo, 2005).
9.6.5 Livestock
Climate change is expected to impact both crops and livestock alike.
Increased temperature is bound to increase stress levels among livestock.
This may result in decline in the rate of reproduction, increased incidences of
diseases and also loss of appetite. Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere
may result in production of less nutritious feed and forage which may be
required to be supplemented by additives, thus adding to the cost to the
grower.
9.6.6 Prices, Production and Food Consumption

The results reveal that though, even without climate change, the prices of
rice, maize, soyabean and wheat are bound to rise between 2000 to 2050,
however, with climate change, there will be additional price increases to the
extent of a total of 32 to 37 percent for rice, 52 to 55 percent for maize, 94 to
111 percent for wheat, and 11 to 14 percent for soybeans. Though the study
does not show any direct effect on livestock due to climate change, the
effects of higher feed prices caused by climate change pass through to
livestock, resulting in higher meat prices. For example, the prices of beef will
be 33 percent higher due to no climate change by 2050 and 60 percent higher
with climate change.
Importantly, the negative impacts of climate change and variability shall be

markedly observed in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The results have
also shown that climate change reduces the consumption of meat slightly and
of cereals substantially indicating negative welfare effects due to climate
change.
9.6.7 Per capita calorie consumption and child malnutrition

The results of the study showed that without climate change, the calorie
availability increases throughout the world by 2050 whereas with climate
change, the calorie availability showed marked reduction relative to 2000
levels.
Further, climate change and variability encompass increased frequency of

170 extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, etc. Heat waves, specially
occurring during some crucial stages of plant life cycle like pollination or pod Atmosphere and
set can limit yields. Heat waves can also cause wilting due to excessive Climate
transpiration, unless they are provided with irrigation. Droughts result in long
term lack of water availability in plants resulting in famines. Strong winds
can damage the leaves and heavy rains can cause flooding, both of which can
be detrimental to the crops.
If the temperature rise occurs in cooler areas of the world, those places will
become more habitable and we may witness crops moving their ranges. In
areas where crops are being grown in their warmest productive temperature
ranges already, heat stress or increased disease could reduce yields. When
temperatures exceed the optimal for biological processes, crops often respond
negatively with a steep drop in net growth and yield. If night time
temperature minima rise more than the daytime maxima--as is expected from
greenhouse warming projections--heat stress during the day may be less
severe than otherwise, but increased night time respiration may also reduce
potential yields. Another important effect of high temperature is accelerated
physiological development, resulting in hastened maturation and reduced
yield.(Hillel, 1995).
Since agriculture is dependent on rainfall, any change in its pattern or total

precipitation will significantly affect agriculture. Moisture stress, especially
during important stages of plant growth like pollination, flowering and grain
filling is harmful. Increase in temperature may lead to higher rates of
transpiration causing moisture stress in plants and would call for increased
need for irrigation. In coming years, the demand for water for irrigation may
increase due to warmer climates and agriculture may have to compete with
other industries for water. Less rainfall also results in falling water tables
which would also increase the energy needed to pump underground water.
Scientists and plant breeders are working towards developing new drought
resistant varieties of various crops.
Note: i) Use the space given below for your answer.
1) What are the effects of changing climate on livestock?
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Introduction to
Global Climate 2) What are the effects of changing rainfall pattern on agriculture?
Change
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9.7 AGRICULTURE AS A SINK FOR

GREENHOUSE GASES
Agriculture sector can also act as a sink to GHG. Firstly, agricultural sector
can reduce its own emission. Plants use CO2 for photosynthesis. Hence, they
have the ability to offset emissions from other sectors by reducing CO2. The
biomass generated in agricultural sector can be used to produce biofuels
which can be a substitute to fossil fuels which are currently used for energy.
Improved management practices in agriculture can help in storage of carbon
in plants and soils. Every tonne of carbon added to, and stored in, plants or
soils removes 3.6 tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere (Paustian et. al, 2006).
Agriculture can increase soil carbon by the following:
1) Cropland Management: Several management practices can increase

cropland soil carbon. Carbon inputs to soil can be increased by
increasing crop productivity, growing crops that produce large amounts
of residues, doing away with the practice of fallow periods between
crops, efficient use of fertilizers, manures and irrigation and use of zero
tillage or low tillage practices.
2) Management of Grazing Land: Soil carbon of grazing lands can be

increased by improved management practices. These management
practices include use of proper fertilization, irrigation, cultivation of
legumes, improved grazing and use of improved grass species.
3) Changes in land use can also help to increase carbon in soil. Conversion
of crop lands to forests or grasslandscan increase soil carbon. Highly
degraded areas like reclaimed mines, saline soils and eroded lands have
high potential of carbon sequestration if a productive plant cover with
high rates of carbon inputs from residues can be achieved.
9.7.1 Mitigation of GHG emission from agriculture

Nitrous oxide and methane are two important greenhouse gasses emitted as a
result of both crop and livestock operations. There is a large amount of
nitrogen that is supplied to the soil in the form of nitrogenous fertilizers and
also from legume crops which fix atmospheric nitrogen. The emission of
nitrous oxide is largely influenced by the amount of nitrogen present in the
172 soil. Hence the mitigation rests in efficiently using the soil nitrogen. A proper
check on the rate and time of use of nitrogenous fertilizers could help in Atmosphere and
reducing the nitrous oxide emissions from croplands. Climate
Methane emission through agriculture is largely restricted to flooded soils

specially in case of rice cultivation and cultivation of other wetland crops.
Mitigation options include choosing rice varieties that have high resistance to
methane transport. Also, under aerobic condition, the soil bacteria use
methane and convert it into carbon dioxide. This process is known as
methane oxidization. Highest methane oxidization occurs in undisturbed
soils. Thus, use of zero till methods and conservation agriculture will help in
creating methane sink on agricultural soils.
Mitigation of methane emitted from animal wastes can be done by capturing

and burning the methane emitted from animal wastes which also helps in
generation of renewable energy. Similarly, manures produced by livestock
also emit nitrous oxide and methane. The nature of emissions from manure
depends on the nature of storage practices. While anaerobic storage
conditions will produce methane and supress nitrous oxide emissions, piled
storage which is mainly aerobic will supress methane and increase nitrous
oxide emissions. Proper storage preferably anaerobic which will supress
nitrous oxide production and using of the methane produced as a source of
energy is one of the ways of mitigating GHG emissions. The methane
emission from enteric fermentation is dependent on the type of feed and
digestive efficiency of the animals. Incorporating feeds like grain, silage and
legume hay which are easily digestible can reduce methane emissions.
Conservation agriculture to mitigate climate change
The spread of Resource Conservation Technologies (RCTs) like conservation

agriculture/ zero tillage will help to improve soil structure and reduce
erosion. Integrated Pest Management which uses the information on life
cycle of pests and their interaction with environment in combination with the
available pest control methods to manage pests will reduce pesticide use. Use
of pesticides should be subjected to more rigorous testing, and residue build
up should be more closely monitored.
Farming as a sink for carbon
Soils act as sinks which can store carbon in the form of soil organic matter
from crop residues and manure. Though, soils have an inherent upper limit
for storage, the total amount that can be stored is crop and location-specific
and the rate of sequestration declines after a few years of growth before
eventually reaching this limit. Some changes like restoration of saline soils
could boost the total carbon storing capacity of the soils. However, if the soil
reclamation practices are discontinued, the sequestered carbon would be
released over a period of a few years.
173
Introduction to
Global Climate Agroforestry
Change
Agroforestry is a practice in which woody perennials are deliberately
integrated with the farming systems. This helps in improving soil structure
and organic carbon content, improving land productivity, increasing
infiltration and enhancing fertility and thus reducing the need for fertilizers.
9.8 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

UNCCD policy brief (UNCCD, 2009) talks about adaptation approaches to
climate change, especially drought. These strategies can be extended to other
climate change scenarios as also.
 Early Warning Systems: If the possibility of a potential disaster is known

in advance, communities can be motivated to establish safeguards
particularly at household levels.
 Strengthening Coping mechanisms: New adaptive mechanisms need to

be designed based on indigenous knowledge and traditional practices.
This would strengthen the capacity of local people to address the issue of
climate change within their own communities and social structure.
 Mitigation activities to support adaptation: Actions promoting

Sustainable Land Management improve the natural resource base of a
region by restoring soil fertility, improving water availability, etc.
 Joint Forest Management: Conserving and establishing forests by the

communities can help in checking moisture and soil loss and improving
soil quality.
 Diversification of Livelihoods: Studies assessing the diverse systems of a

region supporting the local livelihoods and their resilience to climate
change will help in determining viable new options that provide
innovative solutions.
 Local Governance: Participation of local communities in policy

formulations and project development is very essential. The ability of
these communities to develop the rationale for new technologies is
crucial to their ability to be flexible when there is great uncertainty.
 Climate Insurance: Financial instruments on which the communities can

bank upon at times of unanticipated risks are a priority.
Note: i) Use the space given below for your answer.
1) Enlist 5 strategies to adapt to climate change.
174
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Climate
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9.9 LET US SUM UP

Climate is an important factor of agricultural productivity. Climate change is
likely to impact agriculture and food security across the globe. In this unit,
you read about the various effects of climate change on agriculture. You have
also read about how agriculture affects the environment and the remedial
measures that can be under taken to combat the ill effects of agriculture on
environment. Towards the end, you read about adaptation strategies that can
be used to combat climate change.
9.10 KEY WORDS

Resource Conserving Technologies: Resource Conserving Technologies
refer to those practices that enhance resource- or input-use efficiency. Few
examples of RCTs are: new varieties that use nitrogen more efficiently; Zero
or reduced tillage practices that save fuel and improve plot-level water
productivity; Land levelling practices that help save water.
Conservation agriculture: Conservation agriculture practices involve the

characteristics:Soil cover, particularly through the retention of crop residues
on the soil surface;Sensible, profitable rotations; and a minimum level of soil
movement, e.g., reduced or zero tillage.

READING/REFERENCES
Cresser, C. A. (2008).The Effects of Global Climate Change on Agriculture.
American-Eurasian J. Agric. & Environ. Sci., 3 (5): , 672-676.
FAO (2002). World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. Summary Report.

Rome, Italy: Economic and Social Development Department, FAO.
FAO (2009) Declaration of the world summit on food security, World

summit on food security, Rome, 16 to 18 November 2009
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/Summit/Docs/Final_Declaratio
n/WSFS09_Declaration.pdf. Accessed 27 May 2018
Gerald C. Nelson, M. W.-S. (2009). Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

and Costs of Adaptation. Washington DC: International Food Policy
Research Institute.
Hillel, C. R. (1995). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and

Food Supply. Consequences Vol. 1, No. 2 . 175
Introduction to
Global Climate IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of
Change Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Julia M. Slingol, A. J. (2005). Food Crops in a Changing Climate.

Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences, Vol. 360, No. 1463, , 1983.
Khatri-Chhetri A, Aggarwal P, Joshi P, Vyas S (2017) Farmers' prioritization

of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural Systems
151:184-191. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.10.005
Lipper L, Thornton P, Campbell B et al. (2014) Climate-smart agriculture for

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10.1038/nclimate2437
McKie, R. (2013). theguardian.com. Retrieved 11 6, 2013, from

theguardian.com:
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fossil-temperature
NASA.(2009). earthobservatory.nasa.gov. Retrieved 11 6, 2013, from

nasa.gov website:
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Paustian K., Antle, J.M., Sheehan, J. and Paul, E.A. (2006) Agriculture’s
Role in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. Document prepared for the Pew Center
on Global Climate Change.
Porter J.R, Semenov M.A (2005). Crop Responses to Climatic

Variation. Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences, Vol. 360, 2021–
2035
Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K et al. (2014). Food security and
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Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
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Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova,
B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and
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Scherr S, Shames S, Friedman R (2012) From climate-smart agriculture to

climate-smart landscapes. Agriculture & Food Security 1:12. doi:
10.1186/2048-7010-1-12
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Other Land Use (AFOLU). In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate
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Venkatramanan V and Shah S (2019) Climate Smart Agriculture

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(eds.) Sustainable Green Technologies for Environmental Management,
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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2772-8_2.
Venkatramanan V, Singh SD (2009a) Differential effects of day and night

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Web Links
http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/impacts/signs/precip-patterns.html
http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/216137/icode/

1) Climate change is expected to impact both crops and livestock alike.

Increased temperature is bound to increase stress levels among livestock.
This may result in decline in the rate of reproduction, increased
incidences of diseases and also loss of appetite. Increased levels of CO2
in the atmosphere may result in production of less nutritious feed and
forage which may be required to be supplemented by additives, thus
adding to the cost to the grower.
2) Moisture stress, especially during important stages of plant growth

like pollination, flowering and grain filling is harmful. Increase in
temperature may lead to higher rates of transpiration causing moisture
stress in plants and would call for increased need for irrigation. In
coming years, the demand for water for irrigation may increase due to
warmer climates and agriculture may have to compete with other
industries for water. Less rainfall also results in falling water tables
which would also increase the energy needed to pump underground
water.
177
Introduction to
Change
1) Five strategies to adapt to climate change are:
 Early Warning Systems

 Strengthening Coping mechanisms
 Mitigation activities to support adaptation:
 Joint Forest Management
 Diversification of Livelihoods
178
UNIT 10 OCEAN ECOSYSTEM Atmosphere and
Climate
Structure
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Objectives
10.3 Ocean Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change
10.4 Climate Change Effect on the Physical, Chemical and Biological
Properties of Ocean
10.4.1 Changes in Physical properties
10.4.1.1 Changes in water temperature

10.4.1.2 Melting of the Polar ice
10.4.1.3 Rising Sea Levels
10.4.1.4 Changes to the Ocean’s Major Current Systems

10.4.2 Changes in Chemical Properties
10.4.2.1 Ocean Acidification
10.4.2.2 Hypoxia
10.4.3 Changes in Biological properties
10.4.3.1 Effect of Ocean Warming on Biological Diversity
10.4.3.2 Effect of Melting of Polar Ice on Biological Diversity

10.4.3.3 Effect of Sea Level Rise on Biological Diversity
10.4.3.4 Effect of Ocean Current Changes on Biological Diversity
10.4.3.5 Effect of Increasing CO2 on Biological Diversity

10.5 Geographic Distributions
10.6 The Vulnerability of Marine Organisms
10.7 Migration Pattern
10.8 Species Emergence and Extinction
10.9 Let Us Sum Up
10.10 Key Words
10.12 Answer to Check Your Progress
10.1 INTRODUCTION
The oceans occupy about 70 percent of the Earth's surface and have an inter-
relationship with daily and long-term changes in weather or climate. Climatic
changes influence many properties of the ocean, while changes in the ocean
also play a central role in regulating weather on local to global
scales. Aquatic ecosystems (ocean and coastal ecosystems) like salt marshes,
mangroves, etc., render significant services with respect to “carbon storage
179
Introduction to
Global Climate and sequestration” as they deliver important ecosystem services viz. “carbon
Change storage, oxygen generation, food, and income generation”. The carbon stored
in coastal and marine ecosystems is called blue carbon and it is now known
to sequester and store more carbon per unit area than terrestrial forests, hence
playing a role in climate change.
The ocean has huge thermal inertia and dynamic capabilities. Being a huge
reservoir of heat, the ocean plays as a moderator of climatic variations. It
controls the formation of wind and rain. The ocean also traps and stores
carbon dioxide (CO2), thereby preventing an extreme greenhouse effect in the
atmosphere. The ability of ocean to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide
released due to fossil fuels use, is being critically examined by scientific
fraternity, as they can render significant role in mitigation of climate change.
According to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “the ocean has thus far
absorbed 93% of the extra energy from the enhanced greenhouse effect, with
warming now being noted at depths up to 1,000 m”
(https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-climate-change).
Consequently, increased ocean stratification, changes in ocean current
regimes and increase in depleted oxygen zones are now being observed.
Further, shifts in geographical ranges and behaviour of marine species,
changes in growing seasons, diversity and abundance of species communities
are observed of late (https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-
climate-change). In this unit, we would endeavour to discuss the response of
ocean ecosystem to climate change; effects of climate change on the physical,
chemical and biological properties of ocean; and the vulnerability of marine
organisms to climate change.
10.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the response of ocean ecosystem to climate change;

• explain the effects of climate change on the physical, chemical and
biological properties of ocean; and
• explain the vulnerability and migration pattern of marine organisms to
climate change.
10.3 OCEAN ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES TO

CLIMATE CHANGE
By means of the natural carbon cycle, many billions of tons of carbon flow
through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and lithosphere in
various forms. A great number of biological, chemical and physical
processes, known as carbon pumps form the foundation of this continuous
transport and conversion. Climatic factors strongly influence these processes
180 and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the Atmosphere and
climate system and act as drivers for changes in climate. Natural drivers of Climate
climate change include changes in the Sun’s energy output, Earth’s orbital
variations (known as Milankovitch cycles)and large volcanic eruptions. The
more significant and fast drivers are the anthropogenic climate drivers
including emission of greenhouse gases and alteration of land cover that
make changes in the amount of sunlight reflecting back into space (the
albedo).
The gases and solids released by volcanic eruptions which include carbon
dioxide, water vapour, sulphur dioxide, hydrogen sulphide, hydrogen, and
carbon monoxide can influence the climate over a period of a few years,
causing short-term climate changes. Studies have shown that volcanic gases
and particles sprayed into the stratosphere cool the oceans and
temporarily slow down the rate of global sea level rise caused by the
greenhouse effect, followed by acceleration over periods of a decade or more.
CSIRO in 2005 reported that, subsequent to a series of major eruptions
occurring since 1960 (Mt. Agung in Indonesia in 1963, El Chichon in Mexico
in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991), there was temporary
offset in rising of global sea level, which briefly masked the acceleration of
sea level rise, that would otherwise have resulted from the effects of
atmospheric GHGs. In addition to GHGs, volcanic eruptions inject sulphur
bearing gases into the stratosphere which get oxidized to form sulphate
aerosols, with a lifetime of about 2–3 years. They spread around the globe by
the atmospheric circulation, producing a cooling effect on the ocean surface
temperature by approximately 0.2-0.3 °C, which usually lasts for several
years. However, in the subsurface ocean, the cooling signals may linger long
and may have impacts on some decadal variability, such as the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Lava and ash, also act as a
fertilizer providing iron and phosphorus, fuelling the algae growth which has
been observed in the ocean near the eruption zone.
The ocean is being also disproportionately impacted by rising carbon dioxide

and other GHGs resulting from anthropogenic activities. The marine
environment is already registering the impacts of increased heating in the
lower atmosphere or Earth's surface resulting from the ‘greenhouse’ effect
caused by increasing atmospheric CO2, methane and other gasses (at a value
of about 3 Wm-2). The direct physical consequences include increasing wind
velocity and storm frequency, changes in ocean circulation, vertical structure
and nutrient loads, rise in mean global sea surface temperatures (by 0.13°C
per decade since 1979), and ocean interior temperatures (by >0.1°C since
1961), as well as global sea level rise (by more than 15 cm in the last century
and presently by a mean of about 3.3 mm per year). All these changes in the
physical, chemical and biological properties of oceans have been discussed in
detail through subsequent sections.
181
Introduction to
Global Climate 10.4 CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON THE
Change
PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
PROPERTIES OF OCEAN
Climate change is having enormous impacts on ocean ecosystems, but we are
only beginning to understand the magnitude of these changes. Warming trend
appears to be accelerating irrespective of ocean’s vast capacity to absorb heat
and carbon dioxide. Oceans witnessed more than 90 percent of Earth’s
warming since 1950. In effect, climate change has resulted in increased ocean
stratification; changes in ocean current regimes; expansion of depleted
oxygen zones; changes in the geographical ranges of marine species; and
shifts in growing seasons, diversity and abundance of species communities.
Melting of inland glaciers and ice, causing rising sea levels with significant
impacts on shorelines (coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and habitat
destruction) and coastal human settlements are happening due to atmospheric
warming (https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-climate-
change). The IPCC has given an estimated global mean sea level rise of 0.40
(0.26–0.55) m for 2081–2100 compared with 1986–2005 in a low emission
scenario, and 0.63 (0.45–0.82) m for a high emission scenario. Further, the
frequency of extreme El Niño events is also predicted to increase due to
rising GHG emissions.
10.4.1 Changes in Physical Properties

Changes in ocean physical properties include changes in water temperature,
oceanic circulation, rising sea levels as well as increased storm intensity.
10.4.1.1 Changes in Water Temperature

The ocean has absorbed more than 80 percent of the heat added to the Earth's
system by climate change, but it is taking a toll on the ocean. Over the course
of less than a century, the frequency of oceanic heat waves has increased by
more than 50 percent. Marine heat waves are defined as ‘at least five days
with temperatures far above average, caused by heat from blazing sunshine
and by shifting warm currents. As a global average, there were over 50
percent more marine heat wave days per year in the duration 1982–2016
compared to the earlier part.
In general, heat stress and heat waves cause harm to marine environments.
Heat waves result in considerable ecological and economic effects, such as
coral bleaching, mass mortality of marine species due to heat stress, loss of
kelp forests, species migration, and associated reshaping of community
structure. Some studies suggest that fish and mobile invertebrates seem to
manage the heat waves by moving out to unoccupied habitats which in turn
increases diversity. Birds and corals did poorly because of changes in prey
availability and susceptibility to bleaching at high temperature, respectively.
Corals and sea grasses, which tend to provide both habitats and resources for
182 many other organisms to survive, are hardly hit making the adverse effects
cascade across the ecosystem. Atmosphere and
Climate
10.4.1.2 Melting of the Polar ice
Increasing atmospheric warming is causing polar ice to melt and Sea-ice in
the Arctic has shown significant changes in coverage and thickness over the
last 30 years. Studies show that, between 1980 and 2008, the extent of sea ice
has declined by an average of 11%, with evidence of a recent acceleration
and between 1980 and 2008 (28 years), the thickness of sea ice reduced by
50% to 1.75 m.
10.4.1.3 Rising Sea Levels

Sea level monitoring programmes and other data indicate increased sea levels
currently compared to the past 2000 years. Sea expands when its water
temperature increases. Likewise, melting of glaciers and polar ice leads to
rising in sea level. Human activities like draining wetlands, groundwater
withdrawal, dam construction, and land use change also contribute to sea
level rise. Sea level rise is a serious concern as 41% of the world's population
lives within 100km of the coast. The current rate of increase in sea levels
(3.1mm per year), is higher than that the values predicted by the IPCC for
2100. However, these rates are not similar globally and have special
variability.
10.4.1.4 Changes to the Ocean’s Major Current Systems

Changes in ocean temperatures and wind patterns will affect and alter oceanic
currents. As the ocean currents play a significant role in maintaining Earth’s
climate, changes in the ocean’s major current systems will have major
repercussions for the global climate. Oceanographers have observed changes
in the North Atlantic Ocean currents on account of increase in sea surface
temperature and increase in melting of ice. The Atlantic plays a key role in
managing global ocean currents. The sinking of large amounts of cooler
water in this ocean creates currents in the Southern and Pacific oceans. Hence
a slowing down of the currents in this region has global impacts. The entire
Northern Hemisphere cools, Indian and Asian monsoon areas dry up, North
Atlantic storms get amplified and less ocean mixing results in less plankton
and other life in the sea. Also, it would lead to heating up of the southern
hemisphere. The IPCC concluded that the circulation may reduce up to 54%
by this century if temperature increases by 4 degrees C and GHG emissions
keep increasing.
10.4.2 Changes in Chemical Properties

The ocean acts as a carbon sink by absorbing large quantities of CO2. The
CO2 absorption capacity of the ocean is ten times than that of fresh water, as
CO2 is immediately reactive in sea water. This phenomenon causes changes
in the chemical properties of the ocean.
183
Introduction to
Global Climate 10.4.2.1 Ocean Acidification
Change
It is reported that “the oceans absorb about 1/3rd of the anthropogenic
CO2 emitted into the atmosphere”. As soon as CO2 enters into the water from
the atmosphere, it can form carbonic acid by reacting with water molecules,
which causes a shift in the concentrations of the hydrogen carbonate (HCO3–)
and carbonate (CO32–) ions. This has significantly slowed down global
warming but made the ocean more acidic, threatening the survival of many
marine species and ecosystems. The ocean acidification observed in the
recent past is found to be 30 times greater than the natural variation. Further,
the mean surface ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 unit since the
Industrial revolution, which accounts to 25-percent increase in acidity, which
is significant. If the carbon dioxide emissions continue, it is projected that
ocean acidification levels would grow 144 percent by the year 2100.
Higher acidity greatly reduces the ability of marine organisms like corals to
form their shells from calcium carbonate. Studies have shown that ocean
acidification is disrupting calcium carbonate formation. Further, ocean
acidification exacerbates existing “physiological stresses” and greatly reduces
the growth and survival rates of few marine species, particularly in their early
growth stages.
10.4.2.2 Hypoxia
Increasing heat content in the ocean waters warms the water leading to lesser
dissolved oxygen holding capacity. Changing global and regional climates
and coastal eutrophication are observed to increase the prevalence of reduced
oxygen levels (hypoxia) making marine ecosystems more vulnerable. Water
where oxygen levels are less than 2ppm is known as hypoxic waters. In
addition, if surface water is warmer, it doesn’t mix down as much into the
ocean depths any longer. Reduction in mixing of lighter, warmer surface
water with denser bottom water consequently hinders the supply of dissolved
oxygen to deep-dwelling aquatic organisms. This can lead to areas called
“oxygen minimum zones” where plants, fish, and other organisms would
struggle to survive. Well-known examples of such "dead zones" include the
Gulf of Mexico, the Baltic Sea, the Adriatic Sea, the East China Sea, and the
north-western shelf of the Black Sea. It is a swelling problem with severe
consequences for marine life, including altering the habitat and behaviour of
marine life, death, and catastrophic changes.
184
1) What is blue carbon? Atmosphere and
Climate
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2) What is ocean acidification?
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10.4.3 Changes in Biological properties

Biological changes include changes in the diversity and abundance of marine
species. The ocean is an abode for millions of species, but our knowledge,
especially for deep zones of oceans and its organisms are still only very
partial making us significantly underestimate oceanic biodiversity. Climate
change has a direct role in the loss of biological diversity; it alters abundance,
diversity, and distribution of marine species. Their feeding, growth,
development, and breeding, as well as the interactions between species, are
affected. Variations in water temperature, oxygen level, acidification, the
severity of extreme climatic events and ocean biogeochemical properties
affect marine life either directly or indirectly causing alterations on the
metabolism of individuals, life cycles of species, predator-prey relationships
and on changes in habitat.
10.4.3.1 Effect of Ocean Warming on Biological Diversity

• Warmer waters cause corals to expel the algae living in their tissues
resulting in coral bleaching. Coral bleaching in turn adversely impacts
the entire coral ecosystem and the species dependent on these coral
ecosystems for growth.
• Forced migration of many species in order to reach the temperature

requirements they need for feeding and breeding.
• Warmer waters can directly impact hatching, growth, development, the

age of sexual maturity, the timing of spawning and survival of marine
life such as cephalopods.
• Warmer waters decreases the upwelling causing lesser nutrients to reach

the surface of ocean water. It is important to note here that many marine 185
Introduction to
Global Climate ecosystems available prominently in the upwelling areas of ocean. Few
Change prominent examples of such marine ecosystems thriving in the upwelling
areas are found near Galapagos Islands and along the coast of California.
10.4.3.2 Effect of Melting of Polar Ice on Biological Diversity

• Algae play a significant role in the arctic food web, and support species
such as Arctic cod. On the other hand, Arctic cod is found to support
Arctic species like beluga whales, seals, polar bears, and narwhals.
Nevertheless, melting of sea ice affects the algal production, resulting in
the cascading effect in the arctic ecosystem.
• Decreasing extent of sea ice results in habitat loss for marine organisms
such as minke whales, polar bears, seals, walruses, orcas, etc.
• Further, decreasing extent of sea ice affects the Antarctic krill, which
perform a significant role in the Antarctic food chain. Antarctic krill is
found to be an important food source for many seabirds and mammals
(https://www.conservation.org/publications/Documents/CI_Five-Effects-
of-Climate-Change-on-the-Ocean.pdf).
10.4.3.3 Effect of Sea Level Rise on Biological Diversity

• Species like coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses, etc. depend on the
shallower waters for their growth and development. Nevertheless,
species that are slow growing are more vulnerable to sea level rise, as
they are unlikely to keep pace with the rising sea level.
• Further, rising sea levels and change in ocean currents may affect the
nesting beaches and migratory patterns of sea turtles.
10.4.3.4 Effect of Ocean Current Changes on Biological

Diversity
• Ocean current changes may alter the migratory patterns of many marine
animals.
• Also, species that are dependent on the ocean currents for growth and
reproduction be affected. For example, many reef-building coral and reef
fish species rely on dispersal of their larvae by currents
(https://www.conservation.org/publications/Documents/CI_Five-Effects-
of-Climate-Change-on-the-Ocean.pdf).
10.4.3.5 Effect of Increasing CO2 on Biological Diversity

• Increase in carbon dioxide concentration in ocean and resulting ocean
acidification has potential to affect marine organisms particularly those
organisms which build shells of calcium carbonate. Examples are reef-
building corals, molluscs, etc. Incidentally, these organisms play a
significant role in maintaining the biological diversity of oceans.
186
• The growth of those species whose photosynthesis was limited by CO2 Atmosphere and
will be increased in enhanced CO2 situations. For example, a strong Climate
increase in photosynthesis rates was reported for cyanobacteria under

higher CO2 concentrations.
Rising ocean temperatures together with ocean acidification affect

marine species and ecosystems. Fishes, seabirds, and mammals living in
oceans, all are at great threat from changing climate, including mass
movements as species search for favourable environmental conditions,
higher mortality rates and loss of breeding grounds. Physiochemical
changes in characteristics of sea water also affect the metabolism of
individuals, the life cycles of species, predator-prey relationships and
alteration of habitats.
10.5 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS

The current displacement rate of fishes towards the poles is 72.0±13.5
km/decade. Fisheries and food security in many southern countries will face a
huge challenge as the geographic distribution of fish and the dynamics of
ecosystems could undergo significant changes in the coming decades. The
maintenance of healthy and productive marine ecosystems is a critical issue.
The disturbances are now clearly established across a wide range of
taxonomic groups ranging from plankton to top predators and in agreement
with the theoretical approaches regarding the impact of climate change.
10.6 THE VULNERABILITY OF MARINE

ORGANISMS
Coral Bleaching
Coral reefs are important group of marine organisms as they found to provide
habitat to about one-third of the marine organisms. The growth and
development of coral reefs are influenced by a suite of factors like
temperature (optimum range lies between 22° and 29°C), nutrients, currents,
turbidity, light, pH, calcium carbonate content, etc. As regards the
temperature condition, coral reefs are sensitive to rise in temperature. Under
the condition of warm water (temperature more than the optimum for the
coral growth), corals expel the algae (zooxanthellae) living symbiotically in
their tissues, resulting in the bleached appearance of the corals. This is called
as coral bleaching. Eventually, the coral bleaching results in the death of the
corals. (http://www.ocean-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/coral-
reefs_07-12.pdf).
In addition, acidification adversely affects coral skeletons by reducing the

calcification rates of corals, by impeding the thickening process causing low
skeleton density and leaving them more susceptible to breaking. However,
the acidification effects differ with the species, as it may be due to a
differential ability of the organisms to control the pH of its calcification site 187
Introduction to
Global Climate (http://www.ocean-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/coral-reefs_07-
Change 12.pdf).
• Rising sea levels also threaten the survival of many marine species.
Species such as corals and sea grass meadows are also endangered since
they require relatively shallow water for photosynthesis. Several marine
species are also affected by rising sea levels. Example: Hawaiian Monk
Seal. The monk seal population is reportedly declining at 4% annually.
• Declining phytoplankton population and krill may affect many marine

organisms.
1) What is coral bleaching?
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2) What are the effects of sea level rise on biological diversity?
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10.7 MIGRATION PATTERN

The distributions of many marine species including those we rely on for food
are shifting because of their dependence on specific water temperatures and
nutrient availability. Many marine species are moving toward the
poles disrupting fisheries around the world. A recent study noted that more
than 800 species of commercially important fish, including halibut, herring,
tuna, and cod have migrated north. Many marine species such as whales and
salmon time their migratory and reproductive cycles around prey. Whales
migrate to the Arctic to prey on krill in the summer and salmon migrate to the
oceans for seasonal nutrients. When these patterns are altered due to a
changing climate, it results in a change of predator-prey relationships and
increases mass strandings’, starvation, and poor reproductive success. For
188
example, warmer sea surface temperatures along the US Northeast Atmosphere and
continental shelf are forcing a specific zooplankton species to shift to cooler Climate
waters. Atlantic Cod that prey on them in the Gulf of Maine and Georges
Bank are found to have lower reproductive success.
A recent study predicts that climate change will force hundreds of ocean fish
northward. Northward shifts of warm water species by more than 10° latitude
coinciding with a decrease in the number of cold-water species are related
both to the rise in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere and to the North
Atlantic Oscillation. A large number of biological events concerning
maximal phytoplankton abundance as well as reproduction and migration of
invertebrates, fish, and seabirds, all take place earlier in the year. Hence, in
the past fifty years, the spring events have been shifting earlier for many
species by an average of 4.4 ± 0.7 days per decade and the summer events by
4.4 ± 1.1 days per decade. Observations show that for all taxonomic groups,
with great heterogeneity, the rate of displacement towards the poles reaches
72.0±13.5 kilometres per decade. Changes in the distribution of benthic,
pelagic and demersal species can extend up to a thousand kilometres. These
poleward migrations have led to an increase in the number of warm-water
species in areas like the Bering Sea, the Barents Sea or the North Sea. The
observed modifications in the distribution of benthic fish and shellfish with
latitude and depth can be mainly explained by changes in the temperature of
the sea. The migration rates recorded in the marine environment appear to be
faster than observed in the terrestrial environment.
10.8 SPECIES EMERGENCE AND EXTINCTION

About 252 million years ago, the largest extinction in Earth's history marked
the end of the Permian period, wherein 96% of marine species were lost.
Studies reveal that this happened due to global warming. Rising temperatures
led to the increased metabolic rate of marine animals. As the warm oceans
were not capable of holding as much oxygen at higher temperatures, these
species could not survive. Simulation and modelling studies showed that the
most severe effects of oxygen deprivation are for species living near the
poles. Several species are also at higher risk of extinction due to climate
change effects. On the other side, some species might emerge in new areas
due to range shifting caused by temperatures fluctuations. Species whose
ranges might shift pole wards due to warmer water include lionfish, sea
snakes, crown-of-thorns starfish and a number of different types of venomous
jellies.
10.9 LET US SUM UP

Oceans play a key role in the mitigation of impacts of climate change, but
this property of oceans is also slowly destroying and altering the marine
ecosystem. Impact of climate change on oceans, noted in terms of rising
ocean temperatures and its associated effects are modifying the distribution 189
Introduction to
Global Climate of fishes and the productivity of marine species, which has direct and indirect
Change impacts on the livelihoods of people who depend on fisheries. Apart from the
havoc on the marine species, the degradation of coastal and marine
ecosystems such as coral reefs also threaten the sustainability of the tourism
industry and economy. Hence it is imperative that we develop a proper
understanding of the vast secrets of the ocean, and act fast so that this
abundant climate change mitigation system which supports numerous people
globally is able to retain its functions and services. We have studied in this
unit about the response of ocean ecosystem to climate change, and effects of
climate change on physical, chemical, and biological properties of ocean.
Further, we have discussed the vulnerability including the migration
behaviour of marine organisms to climate change.
10.10 KEY WORDS

Coral Bleaching: Loss of coral pigmentation through the loss of intracellular
symbiotic algae (known as zooxanthellae) and/or loss of their pigments.
Ocean Acidification: Ocean acidification refers to a reduction in the pH of

the ocean over an extended period, typically decades or longer, which is
caused primarily by uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but can
also be caused by other chemical additions or subtractions from the ocean.
Anthropogenic ocean acidification refers to the component of pH reduction
that is caused by human activity.
Upwelling Region: A region of an ocean where cold, typically nutrient-rich

waters well up from the deep ocean.
Sea Level Change: Sea level can change, both globally and locally due to (1)
changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (2) a change in ocean volume as a
result of a change in the mass of water in the ocean, and (3) changes in ocean
volume as a result of changes in ocean water density.

READING/REFERENCES
Adamson K. 2015. Oceans and climate change: Physical processes.
Climatica. http://climatica.org.uk/oceans-climate-change-physical-processes
Allemand D. 2017.Coral Reefs and Climate Change. Available at:

http://www.ocean-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/coral-reefs_07-
12.pdf
Beaugrand GP, Reid C, Ibanez F, Lindley JA and Edwards M.

2002.Reorganization of North Atlantic Marine Copepod Biodiversity and
Climate.Science. 296: 1692-1694.
Brierley AS and Kingford MJ. 2009. Impacts of Climate Change on Marine

190 Organisms and Ecosystems. Current Biology.19 (14): R602-R614.
Church JA, White NJ and Arblaster JM. 2005. Significant decadal-scale Atmosphere and
impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content. Nature. Climate
438(7064): 74–7. doi:10.1038/nature04237
CSIRO. 2005. Volcanic eruptions impact global sea level. Available at:
https://phys.org/news/2005-11-volcanic-eruptions-impact-global-sea.html
Cury P. 2017.Exploited Marine Biodiversity and Climate Change. Available

at: http://www.ocean-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/exploited-
marine-biodiversity _ScientificNotes_07-13.pdf
Erez J, Reynaud S, Silverman J, Schneider K and Allemand D. 2011.Coral

Calcification under Ocean Acidification and Global Change. In Coral Reefs:
An Ecosystem in Transition. Springer Netherlands.
Grinsted A, Moore JC and Jevrejeva S. 2007.Observational evidence for

volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle.Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104(50):
19730–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705825104
Holcomb M, Venn AA, Tambutté É, Tambutté S, Allemand D, et al. 2014.

Coral calcifying fluid pH dictates response to ocean acidification. Sci Rep. 4:
5207.
http://www.ocean-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/coral-reefs_07-
12.pdf
https://www.conservation.org/publications/Documents/CI_Five-Effects-of-
Climate-Change-on-the-Ocean.pdf
https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-climate-change
https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-climate-change.
AnnexII_FINAL.pdf.
IUCN. The ocean and climate change. Issues Brief. Available at:
https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-and-climate-change
Pink J. 2018. 5 ways that climate change affects the ocean. Conservation
International. Available at: https://blog.conservation.org/2018/06/5-ways-
that-climate-change-affects-the-ocean/
Pinksy ML, Worm B, Fogarty MJ, Sarmiento JL and Levin SA. 2013. Marine 191
Introduction to
Global Climate Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities. Science. 341: 1239-1242.
Change
Poloczanska ES, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Cheung W, Pörtner HO and Burrows
M. 2014. Cross-chapter box on observed global responses of marine
biogeography, abundance, and phenology to climate change. In Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and
Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press.
Snyder CL. 2019. 8 aquatic animals that might be extinct in 100 years.
Available at: https://www.businessinsider.in/8-aquatic-animals-that-might-
be-extinct-in-100-years/articleshow/67374078.cms
Timmer J. 2019. Ocean heat waves remake Pacific and Caribbean habitats.
Nature Climate Change. Available at:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/03/ocean-heat-waves-remake-pacific-
and-caribbean-habitats/?amp=1
Venn AA, Tambutté É, Holcomb M, Laurent J, Allemand D et al. 2013.

Impact of seawater acidification on pH at the tissue-skeleton interface and
calcification in reef corals. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110: 1634-1639.
Vidal-Dupiol J, Zoccola D, Tambutté É, Grunau C, Cosseau C et al. 2013.

Genes related to ion-transport and energy production is upregulated in
response to CO2 -driven pH decrease in corals: New insights from
transcriptome analysis. PLoS One 8: e58652.
10.12 ANSWER TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

1) The carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems is called blue

carbon. The carbon captured by the living organisms (ocean’s vegetated
habitats) in the marine and coastal ecosystems, is stored in the form of
biomass and sediments. The ocean’s vegetated habitats include but not
limited to mangroves, salt marshes, and sea grasses.
2) Ocean acidification occurs due to the uptake of CO2by the ocean mainly
from the atmosphere. As CO2 enters into the water, it forms carbonic
acid by reacting with water molecules, which causes a shift in the
concentrations of the hydrogen carbonate (HCO3–) and carbonate (CO32–)
ions. Since the Industrial revolution, the mean surface ocean pH has
decreased by about 0.1 unit.
1) Coral reefs are important group of marine organisms as they found to

provide habitat to about one-third of the marine organisms. The growth
and development of coral reefs are influenced by factors like temperature
192
(optimum range lies between 22° and 29°C), nutrients, currents, Atmosphere and
turbidity, light, pH, calcium carbonate content, etc. As regards the Climate
temperature condition, coral reefs are sensitive to rise in temperature.

Warmer waters cause corals to expel the algae(zooxanthellae) living
symbioticallyin their tissues resulting in coral bleaching. Coral bleaching
in turn adversely impacts the entire coral ecosystem and the species
dependent on these coral ecosystems for growth.
2) Marine species like coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses, etc. depend on
the shallower waters for their growth and development. Further, species
that are slow growing are more vulnerable to sea level rise, as they are
unlikely to keep pace with the rising sea level. In the case of sea turtles,
rising sea levelsmay affect the nesting beaches and migratory behaviour
of sea turtles.
193
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT11 MOUNTAIN AND HILL
ECOSYSTEMS
Structure
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Objectives
11.3 Glaciers and their Formation
11.3.1 Components of a Glacier
11.3.2 Types of Glaciers

11.3.3 Glaciers in Himalayas
11.3.4 Ice Ages

11.4 Glacier Melting
11.4.1 Glacier Retreat
11.4.2 Climate change and Glacier Melting
11.4.3 Melting of Himalayan Glaciers

11.4.4 Melting Glaciers and Impact on River System
11.4.5 Impact due to Change in Snowfall Pattern on Agriculture

11.5 Cloudburst and Flash Floods
11.5.1 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
11.5.2 Impacts of Cloudburst and Flash Floods

11.6 Biodiversity and Ecosystem services
11.6.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
11.6.2 Barriers in Migration
11.6.3 Extinction of Species

11.7 Timberline and Snow line
11.8 Let Us Sum Up
11.9 Key Words
11.10 Suggested Further Readings/References
11.1 INTRODUCTION
Mountains generally are larger and higher than hills. Together, mountains
and hills represent a unique type of Earth’s ecosystem characterized by a
generally cooler climate than the surrounding plain areas. Atmospheric
temperature in mountains drops by 0.5 to 0.60C for every 100 m increase in
altitude. Thus, higher the mountains, cooler will be the temperature.
Mountains also act as barriers for moisture laden winds, and mountains
receive generally higher rainfall than the surrounding plain areas.
194
Mountain and hill ecosystems are also characterized with their unique type of Atmosphere and
vegetation, floral and faunal diversity as well as distinct living habitats. This Climate
diversity itself varies with altitude of mountains, with taller tress being found
at lower altitudes giving way to shorter trees, grasslands etc. at higher
altitudes. Highest altitudes of mountains are completely devoid of any
vegetation.
Mountains and hills found at different places also differ from each other in
terms of type of vegetation, floral and faunal diversity as well as living
habitats. Himalayas are the highest mountains in India and Western Ghats in
south west India are the wettest. Aravalli mountains in northwest India are
driest while Satpura and Vindhyan mountains in central India are
characterized by dominance of deciduous forests. Mount Everest (8848 m) is
the highest peak in Himalayas while Kalumar Peak with a height of only
752m is the highest peak in Vindhyan Mountains. In this unit, we would be
discussing the formation of glaciers and the impacts of glacier melting on
rivers and water availability. Further, we will be discussing the reasons for
flash floods and their impacts.
11.2 OBJECTIVES
• differentiate between glaciers, ice sheets and icebergs;

• explain the formation of glaciers;
• discuss the impacts of glacier melting on rivers and water availability;
• describe the reasons for flash floods and their impacts; and
• explain the types of services provided by an ecosystem.
11.3 GLACIERS AND THEIR FORMATION

A Glacier is a frozen mass of ice moving slowly over land. Glaciers form
when snow remains in one location long enough to transform into ice. Thus,
glaciers are formed due to continuous accumulation of snow and its
compaction under its own weight. Thus, annual snowfall in hill stations like
Shimla, Manali etc., does not lead to the formation of glaciers, as snow melts
away within a few days. Present day glaciers were formed at least 12000
years ago, during the last little ice age/ glacial phase.
Health of a glacier is assessed through its mass balance. The mass balance of
a glacier is the net change in its mass over a reference period, generally in a
year. A glacier gains mass through snow from snowfall and loses mass by
melting of snow or ice. When a glacier loses more mass than it receives, its
mass balance is negative. When a glacier gains more mass than it loses, its
mass balance is positive. Glaciers gaining and losing approximately the same
amount of snow and ice are in equilibrium.
195
Introduction to
Global Climate 11.3.1 Components of a glacier
Change
The point of origin of the glacier is known as its ‘head’ and the point of
termination of a glacier is known as ‘snout’.
 Upper part of a glacier where there is net gain of snow is known as

accumulation zone
 Lower part of a glacier where there is net loss of glacier mass is known
as ablation zone
 That part of the glacier which separates accumulation and ablation zones,
and the amount of new snow gained by accumulation is equal to the
amount of snow/ ice lost through ablation, is known as Equilibrium Line
Altitude (ELA).
11.3.2 Types of glaciers

Based on the form and shape, glaciers can be grouped into two major classes:
1) Ice sheets and ice caps
These are huge ice masses found near north and south poles on Earth. Ice
sheets are larger than 50000 km2 and their maximum ice thickness is about
3000 m. For example, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets.
Ice caps are dome shaped ice masses, smaller than 50000 km2 and maximum
thickness being limited to less than 1000 m. Ice caps are miniature ice sheets,
which form primarily in polar and sub-polar regions that are relatively flat
and high in elevation. For example, Vatnajökull Ice Cap in Iceland.
2) Mountain glaciers
These are the glaciers which develop in mountains. They take the shape of
the space which they occupy in mountains. Glaciers occupying the valleys
between mountains are typical types of mountain glacier, also known as
Valley glaciers. Glaciers like Siachen, Gangotri, Zemu are the common
examples of valley glaciers. Valley glaciers are generally longer than they are
wide. These glaciers may range in length from a few hundred kilometres to
even less than a kilometre. Other important mountain glaciers are Cirque
glaciers and Piedmont glaciers.
196
Icebergs Atmosphere and
Climate
Icebergs are huge pieces of ice which get detached from a glacier and float in an
ocean or lake. Icebergs are not a glacier but the part of a mountain glacier or an
ice sheet. An iceberg is generally larger than 5 metres across and could be as
large as a few kilometres. The largest iceberg recorded till now was almost 335
kilometre in length with a total area of 31000 square kilometres. Icebergs pose a
danger to ships traversing the North Atlantic and the waters around Antarctica.
Titanic, a British passenger ship sank in North Atlantic Ocean near
Newfoundland in 1912, after striking an iceberg.
11.3.3 Glaciers in Himalayas

According to Geological Survey of India, there are 9575 glaciers in Indian
Himalaya distributed among the three river basins – Indus, Ganga and
Brahmaputra. However, more than 90% of Indian glaciers are small to very
small in size – being smaller than 5 km in length and smaller than 5 sq km in
area. Most of them are even smaller than 1 sq km in area. Only a few glaciers
like Siachen, Gangotri and Zemu are bigger than 10 sq km in area.
Glaciers in eastern Himalaya receive maximum amount of their annual

snowfall during monsoon season, and the glaciers in western Himalaya
receive maximum amount of snowfall during winter season through
“Western Disturbances”. Accordingly, the glaciers in eastern and western
Himalaya are known as summer and winter accumulation type glaciers,
respectively.
11.3.4 Ice Ages

An ice age is considered to be that time period when there is significant
reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, which
results in the formation of new or expansion of existing continental and
polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers.
Causes of an Ice Age
Scientists have propounded a number of theories of the causes leading to

setting up of an ice age on Earth and the formation of glaciers. Some of the
important theories are listed below:
1) Continental Drift Theory As you know, continents are not stationary

but drift from one place to other, over geological time period. Due this
drifting, continents which reach to the Earth’s polar latitude, experience
very low temperature. Sub-zero temperature at high latitudes leads to the
compaction of snow and hence, the formation of glaciers/ ice sheets.
2) Carbon dioxide Hypothesis Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is

considered to be responsible for greenhouse effect leading to entrapment
of outgoing longwave radiations, thus maintaining the Earth’s average 197
Introduction to
Global Climate temperature to the constant level. An increase in concentration of carbon
Change dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere leads to increase in its temperature and
vice versa. It has been proposed by some scientists that during certain
periods of geological era, concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s
atmosphere reduced significantly, thus bringing on a colder climate
leading to formation of glaciers.
3) Volcanic Dust Hypothesis This hypothesis states that intensive volcanic

activity during certain geological periods led to release of excessive
amount of dust, which covered the Earth’s atmosphere and obstructed the
incoming solar radiation. This led to the onset of colder climate and so to
the formation of glaciers.
4) Simpson’s Hypothesis: This hypothesis correlates the formation of

glaciers on Earth with the solar cycles i.e., variations in the amount of
radiation given off by the Sun. During the time of maximum solar
radiation, heating of Earth takes place and during the time of minimum
solar radiation, glaciers are formed.
Chronology of Ice Ages
With the help of fossils and other geomorphological features, scientists have
established five significant ice ages throughout the Earth’s history: the
Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago), Cryogenian (850-635 million years
ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 million years ago), Karoo (360-260 million
years ago) and Quaternary (2.6 million years ago - present). Within the
Quaternary ice age, a number of glacial phases have been reported, each
separated by an interglacial phase. Within the Earth’s recent geological
history of 6,50,000 years, four glacial phases have been established by the
scientists. These glacial phases have been named as Gunz, Mindal, Riss and
Wurm with Gunz being the oldest and Wurm, the latest. Each of these glacial
phases was separated by the interglacial phases. Both the glacial as well as
interglacial phases varied in their duration also.
11.4 GLACIER MELTING

Glaciers are considered as climatic thermometers, due to their high sensitivity
to atmospheric temperature. Melting of glaciers is a natural phenomenon.
Glaciers being the mass of ice, melt as soon as the temperature reaches above
0 0C. Every year glaciers receive snow from snowfall especially during
winter season, and melt when the temperature gets higher especially during
the summer season. This may show 3 types of glacier responses:
Advancing Glaciers: When the snow received from snow fall during a year
is more than the snow lost due to melting during the year, glacier gains mass
which results in increase in the size of the glacier. Such type of glaciers are
known as advancing glaciers. Many glaciers across the world have been
reported to be advancing or growing in size, especially in Greenland,
198
Norway, Canada and New Zealand. At least 58 New Zealand glaciers are Atmosphere and
reported to have advanced between 1983 and 2008, with Franz Josef Glacier Climate
advancing nearly continuously during this time.
Stationary Glaciers: When the snow received from snow fall during a year
balance with the snow lost due to melting during the year, glacier mass
doesn’t change. Such a glacier is considered to be stationary and in
equilibrium with the atmosphere. Perito Moreno Glacier in Patagonia has
been reported to be in equilibrium since 1950s.
Retreating Glaciers: When the snow received from snow fall during a year
is less than the snow lost due to melting during the year, glacier loses mass
which results in decrease in the size of the glacier. Such types of glaciers are
known as retreating glaciers. Majority of world glaciers are retreating. Some
notable examples of retreating glaciers include Muir glacier in Alaska, Easton
and Grinnell glacier in USA, Mer de Glace in France, Morteratsch Glacier in
Switzerland, Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia and Furtwängler Glacier in
Kilimanjaro mountains of Africa. In Himalayas, some notable examples
include Rongbuk and Khumbu glaciers in Mt. Everest region, Kolahoi glacier
in Kashmir, Chota Shigri glacier in Himachal Pradesh, Pindari glacier in
Uttarakhand and East Rathong glacier in Sikkim.
A single glacier can also be advancing, stationary or retreating glacier in

different years, depending on the amount of snowfall and rate of melting
during a year.
11.4.1 Glacier Retreat

Glaciers retreat when their ice melts or ablates more quickly
than snowfall can accumulate and form new glacial ice. Generally, glacier
retreat is the backward shifting of its terminus point, known as snout, leading
to reduction in length of the glacier. Due to retreat, glaciers do not extend as
far down the valley as they used to several decades or centuries back.
However, melting of a glacier is the three-dimensional phenomenon. Along
with length, its area and thickness also decrease due to melting.
Gangotri Glacier
Gangotri glacier is located in Uttarakhand and is considered to be the

source of river Ganga. Snout of Gangotri glacier is known as
‘Gaumukh’, due to its resemblance with the cow’s mouth, which is the
starting point of river Ganga. Gangotri glacier is almost 25 km in
length and has several tributary glaciers attached to it and draining their
ice into the main trunk of the glacier. Previously, snout of Gangotri
glacier extended up to the Gangotri town, which is almost 18 km down
from its current location. According to NASA, Gangotri glacier has
retreated by almost 1000 m during the 20th century itself.
199
Introduction to
Global Climate 11.4.2 Climate Change and Glacier Melting
Change
Increase in average temperature of Earth is leading to global warming. This is
affecting the normal atmospheric circulation of air along the globe and
influencing the normal temperature as well as precipitation pattern on Earth.
According to IPCC, release of greenhouses gases by human activities has
increased the Earth’s average temperature by 0.8°C to 1.2°C since industrial
revolution. Also, it is estimated that global temperature will increase by
1.5°C between 2030 and 2052, if warming continues at the same rate.
Indian Meteorological Department based on temperature and precipitation

data from 1951-2010, has reported a decrease in mean maximum, mean
minimum and mean annual temperature for westernmost state of Jammu and
Kashmir in Himalayas, while the same parameters have been reported to be
showing positive trends for eastern most states of Sikkim and Arunachal
Pradesh. Simultaneously, an increase of 2.13 mm/year in rainfall has been
reported for western state and a decrease of about 3 mm/year for the eastern
states, over the same time period. This increase or decrease in rainfall has
been attributed mainly to increase in winter rainfall over western state and
decrease in monsoon rainfall in eastern states. However, the trend for
decrease in temperature is not consistent throughout western Himalaya. The
decadal temperature rise in the Himalayan region is higher than the global
rate of rising temperatures.
Almost 75% of glacial mass of Glacier National Park in USA has

disappeared. In the Alps, home to the world-famous Matterhorn, nearly half
the glaciers have disappeared since record keeping began.
11.4.3 Melting of Himalayan Glaciers

According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), smaller
glaciers are more vulnerable to global warming as compared to larger
glaciers, due to their faster response time to climatic change. Glaciers in
Himalaya being small to very small in size are especially vulnerable. It is
reported by Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad that Equilibrium
Line Altitude in western Himalaya has shifted upward by 300 m in the last 40
years. A region wide study by SAC indicates retreating pattern for almost
77% of the Himalayan glaciers. Similarly, regional study based on satellite
images of glaciers in different sub-basins of Himalayas indicate an area loss
ranging between 1-14%, over a period of 15 years from 1990. With reference
to mass balance, over the past 4 decades, Himalayan glaciers are suggested to
have lost almost 10% of their glacial mass.
11.4.4 Melting Glaciers and Impact on River System

Almost 800 million people living in Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra River
basins are dependent on Himalayan glaciers. They provide water during the
non-rainfall summer season when demand is high and precipitation is less.
200 Meltwater from Himalayan glaciers during the lean period, makes these
rivers and thousands of their tributaries, perennial in nature, with water Atmosphere and
availability throughout the year. This is in contrast to the rivers in South India Climate
which are seasonal in nature with water availability mainly during the rainfall
season.
Among the three major Himalayan rivers, annual as well as seasonal

contribution of meltwater is maximum in Indus River followed by Ganges
and Brahmaputra. This is mainly due to dominance of monsoon rainfall in
central and eastern areas, whereas meltwater remains a significant contributor
to downstream flow of westerly river basin, as it receives maximum
precipitation during winter.
Hydrology of glacierised regions is thermally controlled and the increasing

temperature is affecting both the quantum as well as timing of runoff.
Increase in temperature lead to earlier onset of melting season and higher
runoff. Also, increase in rate of melting of glaciers is leading to increase in
discharge in Himalayan rivers. It is estimated that by middle of this century,
glaciers will recede to such an extent that their contribution to river runoff of
Himalayan rivers will start declining, influencing the water availability in
these rivers during the summer season. It has been reported that glacier
melting during the last decade contributed almost 400 m3s-1to the river
discharge in Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, respectively.
Similar to spatial variation in increase in temperature and rate of melting

across Himalayas, impact on water and river systems associated with glaciers
is also variable. Some basins like Satluj in Himalayas are reported to show
not much change in total streamflow but there is change in distribution of
streamflow with more snowmelt runoff happening earlier.
Eastern Himalaya’s, mighty basin Brahmaputra also reflects increase in

annual flow. Scientists have reported that the total runoff will increase in the
basin up to middle of this century because of increase in precipitation and
melt.
11.4.5 Impact due to change in snowfall pattern on agriculture

Variability in meltwater from glaciers will have many effects. For example,
the melting of glaciers will affect drinking water supplies to the millions who
rely on these rivers, especially during the summer season.
In Himalayas, apple is one of the major horticulture and commercial crop,

and it is vulnerable to impacts of changing climate. Apple cultivators have
been witnessing rise in temperatures and declining snowfall which is
affecting the quality of fruit size. With apple production being greatly
affected, farmers are steadily moving towards other crop options. Farmers
have shifted to cultivation of pomegranate, kiwi and other vegetable crops.
Similarly, cardamom is an important horticultural crop in eastern Himalaya.

Large cardamom production has been affected due to changing climate
201
Introduction to
Global Climate impacts like variability in rainfall, rising temperature, early flowering, less
Change snow in the mountains and rapid melting of snow, early onset of summer and
monsoon, and the drying up of water sources.
In addition to that melting of glaciers is leading to higher river flows in the

sea, which is causing rise in sea level, which in turn will cause flooding of
the coastal areas.
11.5 CLOUDBURST AND FLASH FLOODS

Cloudburst is an extreme amount of precipitation in a short period of time
occurring in a small geographical area. According to India Meteorological
Department (IMD), rainfall over 100 mm per hour occurring in a small
geographical area is referred as cloudburst. High temperature leads to
excessive built up of moisture levels in the atmosphere and extreme
condensation. This moisture content then falls in the form of either
thunderstorms/ intense rainfall in the plains or cloudbursts or hailstorms in
mountainous regions.
Long term records indicate that the frequency of cloudburst events has
increased, and their timing has also changed. Earlier, cloudbursts were
common during monsoon or post-monsoon period, which is September-
October in India. However, now the cloudburst events are commonly being
recorded during pre-monsoon and early monsoon season.
In India, cloudbursts mostly occur in mountain areas, where low monsoon

clouds are stopped by mountains. Most of the cloudburst events are seen
occurring in the elevation range between 1000m and 2500m. A number of a
cloudburst events have been recorded in western Himalayan states, some of
which become major due to their widespread impacts.
Recent major cloudburst events in Himalayas:
 July 1970 - Badrinath town, Alaknanda River, Uttarakhand

 August 1997 - Shimla district, Himachal Pradesh
 August 1998 - Malpa village, Kumaon division, Uttarakhand
 July 2003 - Kullu, Himachal Pradesh
 July 2004 - Chamoli district, Uttarakhand
 July 2005 - Mumbai, Maharashtra
 August 2009 - Pithoragarh district, Uttarakhand
 August 2010 - Leh, Jammu and Kashmir
 June 2011 - Jammu division, Jammu and Kashmir
 June 2013 - Almost entire Uttarakhand
 September 2014 - Kashmir valley, Jammu and Kashmir
Rapid flooding of a low-lying area is known as flash flood. A flash flood is

characterized by a fast rise in volume of water. It occurs within minutes or
202 hours of heavy rainfall. Flash floods cause heavy damage due to their
suddenness. Cloudburst often leads to the occurrence of flash floods. Flash Atmosphere and
flooding can also be caused by excessive rainfall released by cyclones or Climate
hurricanes and other tropical storms, as well as the sudden release of

meltwater from glaciers. Dam breaks can also cause flash floods to occur.
Landslide or mudflows in mountain areas leading to blockage in normal
course of a river, also lead to flooding in the adjoining areas.
As climate change is considered to have caused increase in heavy

precipitation, occurrence of flash floods is also on the rise. Human activities
like unscientific development and land use pattern, deforestation, unmanaged
waste disposal exacerbate the impacts of flash floods.
11.5.1 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

Flash floods caused by the outburst of glacial lakes are called as Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Glacial lakes are formed due to impoundment of
water at the glacier terminus due to landslide or huge ice blocks detached
from the main glacier or debris deposited by the retreating glacier. These
lakes normally drain their water through seepage from the material damming
their water. However, cloudburst, earthquake or other intense events may
lead to failure of dam impounding glacial lake, causing flash floods in the
downstream region.
Glacial Lakes in Himalayas
Indian Space Research Organisation monitored a total of 459 glacial lakes and
water bodies, each with an area more than 50 ha, during June to October 2015.
Out of these monitored glacial lakes and water bodies, 144 have shown
decrease in water spread area, 119 have shown increase, 195 have not shown
any significant change (± 5%), while one glacial lake has dried up. Thus,
glacial lakes are dynamic in nature which expand or shrink depending upon
the rate of melting, precipitation in the region as well as rate of seepage from
the lake.
11.5.2 Impacts of Cloudburst and Flash Floods

Flash floods with huge sediment loads washed away large
sections of roads, bridges, vehicles, houses and hotels along the river
banks.
Cloudburst and flash floods are intense events which are often associated
with the loss of life – both human and animals. Heavy rain causes landslides
and tree fall which results in blockage of roads and river streams. Damage to
roads and bridges get the residents as well as tourists trapped in the area.
Destruction of houses and public property like telephone towers and
electricity poles obstructs the communication as well as electricity supply.
Often vehicles get washed away due to flash floods and standing crops get
damaged. The average annual flood damage has been estimated by National
Disaster Management Authority to be more than Rs. 5000 crores per year in 203
Introduction to
Global Climate the country.
Change
Cloudburst and Flash Floods in Uttarakhand – June 2013
In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced multiple cloud burst events spread across
many districts in the state. It caused devastating floods and landslides in the state.
It stranded several thousand local residents as well as tourists due to destruction
of roads, bridges and other communication infrastructure. According to some
estimates, cloudburst and associated flash floods led to death of almost 5000
people.
1) Differentiate between accumulation and ablation zone.
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2) Differentiate between summer accumulation and winter accumulation

type glaciers.
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3) Differentiate between advancing and retreating glaciers.
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204
4) What is Equilibrium Line Altitude? Atmosphere and
Climate
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5) What are icebergs and how are they different from a glacier?
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6) What is an ice age? Name different glacial phases of recent time period.
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7) What is the influence of glacier melting on rivers?
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8) What is GLOF? How does it affect the communities?
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205
Introduction to
Global Climate 11.6 BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM
Change
SERVICES
All around us, we see a number of life forms. Plants, trees, flowers, animals,
aquatic organisms etc. together constitute the life forms on Earth. This
diversity of life present on Earth is referred as biodiversity.
Biodiversity is defined as "the variability among living organisms from all

sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems
and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity
within species, between species and of ecosystems."
India accounts for 7-8% of all recorded species, including over 45,000
species of plants and 91,000 species of animals. The country’s diverse
physical features and climatic conditions have resulted in a variety of
ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, grasslands, desert, coastal and marine
ecosystems which harbour and sustain high biodiversity and contribute to
human well-being. Four of 34 globally identified biodiversity hotspots: The
Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the North-East, and the Nicobar Islands, are
found in India.
Ecosystem services refer to the services provided by an ecosystem – directly

or indirectly, to the human beings. These services are the result of many
conditions and processes associated with natural ecosystems that benefit
humanity. For example, trees provide fruits/ flowers/shade/ foliage, but also
help in air pollutant removal, carbon storage and sequestration, soil
enrichment, flood protection etc. besides providing timber when cut. Thus,
ecosystem services refer to all the benefits that nature provides to human
beings.
Different types of services provided by an ecosystem are grouped into 4

categories:
1) Provisioning services are the products obtained from ecosystems such

as food, fresh water, wood, fiber, genetic resources and medicines.
2) Regulating services are defined as the benefits obtained from the

regulation of ecosystem processes such as climate regulation, natural
hazard regulation, water purification and waste management, pollination
or pest control.
3) Habitat services highlight the importance of ecosystems to provide

habitat for migratory species and to maintain the viability of gene-pools.
4) Cultural services include non-material benefits that people obtain from

ecosystems such as spiritual enrichment, intellectual development,
recreation and aesthetic values.
206
11.6.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Atmosphere and
Ecosystem Services Climate
Climatic envelope refers to the range of temperatures, rainfall and other

climate-related parameters in which a particular species currently exists. With
increase in temperature and changes in other related climatic parameters,
climatic envelope of a place changes and original set of climatic parameters
may be found at other places, nearby or far away. This is known as shifting
of climatic envelope. Species are capable to adapt to minor changes in
climatic envelope. However, significant changes in climatic envelope, makes
it difficult for the species to survive in their current locations. Due to changed
envelope of their original habitat, species need to follow their climatic
envelopes to survive and shift along with their climatic envelopes to new
place. Generally, species on land migrate to cooler and moister environments.
In an aquatic/ marine environment, species migrate to deeper and cooler
depths. In a mountain environment, species shift uphill.
11.6.2 Barriers in Migration

In many cases, migration of species in response to shifting of climatic
envelope might not be possible due to factors – natural and/ or human-made.
Natural barriers are physical features that obstruct movement through them.
Examples of natural barriers are deserts, oceans, mountains etc. Also, harsh
climatic conditions of places in between original and new habitat, limits the
migration through them. Artificial barriers are the structures created by
human being, which limits the movement through or over them. For example,
dams built on rivers obstruct the migration of fishes within the river.
Similarly, powerlines, pipelines and roads obstruct the migration. Other
obstructions in migration are competition from species already existing or
lack of food, in the new area.
11.6.3 Extinction of Species

Human activities like hunting and overharvesting, cutting down of trees,
conversion of forests and other natural habitats to croplands and urban
areas, pollution, the introduction of invasive species etc. create difficulty in
normal life of other life forms on Earth. In addition, climate change is
altering the environment in different species habitats which is forcing them to
migrate toward the poles or up mountain slopes in search of suitable climatic
conditions for survival. However, barriers in migration and the rate of change
in climatic envelope being higher than the rate of species migration are
leading to extinction of species i.e., disappearance of a type of organisms or a
group of similar organisms from Earth.
It has been estimated that almost 5.2 percent of species would be lost as a
result of global warming alone with a rise in average temperatures of 2 °C. It
is estimated that species are becoming extinct 100 times faster than they
would without human impacts, and the populations of wild animals have
207
Introduction to
Global Climate more than halved since 1970, while the human population has doubled. Some
Change of the common species reported to have extinct from India in recent past are
Asiatic Cheetah, Sumatran rhinoceros, pink-headed duck and Himalayan
quail. According to Botanical Survey of India, 18 species of plants — four
non-flowering and 14 flowering — have also gone extinct from the country.
Species Recovery Programme

Government of India is executing a scheme known as 'Integrated
Development of Wildlife Habitats (IDWH)' in consultation with Wildlife
Institute of India and other scientific institutions/ organizations. Under
the scheme 16 terrestrial and 7 aquatic species have been identified with
the objective of saving critically endangered species/ecosystems and to
ensure their protection outside Protected Areas, across the
widerlandscape/seascape.
Species Recovery Plans, specific to each species were prepared which

have started showing positive results and the population of animal
species like Lion (Panthera leo persica) and Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros
unicornis) are showing an increasing trend. Some of the important
species under IDWH are Asian Wild Buffalo, Asiatic Lion, Gangetic
River Dolphin, Great Indian Bustard, Hangul, Indian Rhino or Great
One-horned Rhinoceros, Marine Turtles, Snow Leopard, Swamp Deer
and Vultures
11.7 TIMBERLINE AND SNOW LINE

Timberline refers to the highest altitude in a mountain or hill up to which the
trees can survive. Beyond this altitude, climatic conditions – mainly low
temperature and lack of moisture, become too severe for plants to survive. It
is also called as tree line. Timberline boundary is never abrupt but transit
gradually from closed forest system to open forest system followed by shrubs
and grasslands below and treeless alpine tundra above.
Snowline refers to the lowest altitude above which snow is present

throughout the year. Snowfall during winter months shifts the snowline but
major parts of lower altitude become snow free with the onset of summer and
melting of snow. However, in higher altitudes temperature remains low
maintaining snow cover throughout the year. For example, snow fall in hill
stations like Shimla and Srinagar during winters melts away with the start of
summer season and doesn’t make the part of permanent snowline.
The zone between tree line and snowline in mountains is covered with shrubs
and grasslands. With increase in temperature in mountains, both tree line as
well as snow line is moving upward. Rising tree line means that elevations
which were once too cold for plants to survive are becoming hospitable to
them. On the contrary, rising snowline means that the area under permanent
snow cover is reducing due to increase in temperature.
208
Atmosphere and
Climate
1) Define biodiversity.
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2) What are provisioning services?
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3) What are the barriers to migration of species?
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11.8 LET US SUM UP

 A glacier is a frozen mass of ice moving slowly over land. Glaciers are
formed due to continuous accumulation of snow and its compaction
under its own weight.
 Health of a glacier is assessed through its mass balance. The mass

balance of a glacier is the net change in its mass over a reference period,
generally in a year. A glacier gains mass through snow from snowfall
and loses mass by melting of snow or ice.
 Greenland and Antarctica are the example of ice sheets on Earth and
Siachen, Gangotri and Zemu are the common examples of valley
glaciers.
209
Introduction to
Global Climate  Glaciers is eastern Himalaya receive maximum amount of their annual
Change snowfall during monsoon season, and the glaciers in western Himalaya
receive maximum amount of snowfall during winter season through
“Western Disturbances”. Accordingly, the glaciers in eastern and
western Himalaya are known as summer and winter accumulation type
glaciers, respectively.
 An ice age is considered to be that time period when there is significant

reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere,
which results in the formation of new or expansion of existing
continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers.
 Every year glaciers receive snow from snowfall especially during winter
season, and melt when the temperature gets higher especially during the
summer season.
 Glacier retreat is the backward shifting of its terminus point, known as

snout, leading to reduction in length of the glacier.
 Meltwater from glaciers during the lean period, makes Himalayan rivers
and thousands of their tributaries, perennial in nature, with water
availability throughout the year.
 Hydrology of glacierised regions is thermally controlled and the

increasing temperature is affecting both the quantum as well as timing of
runoff. Increase in temperature lead to earlier onset of melting season
and higher runoff.
 Rainfall over 100 mm per hour occurring in a small geographical area is

referred as cloudburst. High temperatures lead to excessive built up of
moisture levels in the atmosphere and extreme condensation. This
moisture content then falls in the form of cloud bursts in mountainous
regions.
 Glacial lakes are formed due to impoundment of water at the glacier

terminus due to landslide or huge ice blocks detached from the main
glacier or debris deposited by the retreating glacier. Cloudburst,
earthquake or other intense events may lead to failure of dam
impounding glacial lake, causing flash floods in the downstream region.
 Diversity of life present on Earth is referred as biodiversity. India

accounts for 7-8% of all recorded species, including over 45,000 species
of plants and 91,000 species of animals. Four of 34 globally identified
biodiversity hotspots: The Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the North-
East, and the Nicobar Islands, are found in India.
 Ecosystem services refer to all the benefits that nature provides to human
beings. Different types of services provided by an ecosystem are grouped
into 4 categories: Provisioning services, Regulating services, Habitat
210 services and Cultural services.
 Barriers in migration and the rate of change in climatic envelope being Atmosphere and
higher than the rate of species migration are leading to extinction of Climate
species i.e., disappearance of a type of organisms or a group of similar

organisms, from Earth.
 Timberline refers to the highest altitude in a mountain or hill up to which

the trees can survive, and Snowline refers to the lowest altitude above
which snow is present throughout the year. The zone between tree line
and snowline in mountains is covered with shrubs and grasslands.
11.9 KEY WORDS

Glacier: A perennial mass of land ice that originates from compressed snow,
shows evidence of past or present flow and is constrained by internal stress
and friction at the base and sides.
Ice age: An ice age or glacial period is characterized by a long-term

reduction in the temperature of the Earth’s climate, resulting in growth of ice
sheets and glaciers.

READING/REFERENCES
Web Links

1) Refer to section 11.3.1

211
Introduction to
Global Climate 6) Refer to section 11.3.4
Change

212
UNIT 12 HUMAN HEALTH Atmosphere and
Climate
Structure
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Objectives
12.3 Direct Impacts on Human Health
12.3.1 Increased Frequency of Heat Stress
12.3.2 Vector-borne Diseases
12.3.3 Non vector-borne Diseases

12.4 Indirect Impacts on Human Health
12.4.1 Malnutrition and Hunger
12.4.2 Food Insecurity

12.5 Climate Change Impacts on Human Settlement, Migration and
Livelihood
12.5.1 Climate Change Impacts on Human Settlement and Migration
12.5.2 Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood

12.6 Let Us Sum Up
12.7 Key Words
12.1 INTRODUCTION
This unit details how weather and climate can affect the health of mankind.
These include both direct and indirect effects. Our planet’s species are
dependent on the ecosystem service functions which are driven by climate
stability. Good health is the most important aspect for every human being
without which life becomes a burden. Our health is directly linked to the state
of our environment. Have you ever wondered why you get sick after rains
and floods? Most of us are affected by viral flu, conjunctivitis,
gastrointestinal upset, and so on. In regions where there is heavy flooding
people wade in these waters and are affected by skin diseases, helminthiasis
etc. Changes in weather and climate have influenced the health of human
populations in the past and caused several epidemics and pandemics such as
Cholera, plague and the Spanish Flu. Presently we are facing the great
pandemic from Coronavirus which has affected millions of people in the
entire world and the world’s economy has been hit badly. The entire globe is
under a lockdown as this virus is infectious. This virus is transmitted from
bats and mammals and is contagious as it causes human to human
transmission. Do you think climate could be related to health issues? Yes,
climate is directly responsible for the distribution of different types of insects,
mollusks and even species of the higher genera which are vectors for several 213
Introduction to
Global Climate diseases. Recently India has experienced a spike in diseases such as
Change Chikungunya, West Nile Fever and Dengue viruses. Why do you think this is
so? This unit will explain the factors responsible for the same and will
introduce you to some extreme weather events, such as heat stress and their
risks to health. The health risks are under-nutrition, poor mental health, food
and water-borne diseases. We should understand that health risks arising
from climate change will be distributed inequitably. There exist links
between climate variability and human health. We are already seeing the
impacts of climate change and this will further increase in the coming
decades. It may also lead to several novel emerging infectious diseases.
Scientists and researchers are presently studying the exposure pathways in
humans and animals for understanding the impacts of climate change on
health. This involves conducting studies over time and in different locations,
among different communities. The developing countries have a high under-
five mortality rate (key indicator of a health status of a country). Most of this
is due to drought, extreme climate events and vector-borne diseases. Good
health is the key to a country’s progress and economy. Together we can
reduce the underlying health disparities by strengthening each country’s
fundamental public health services and policies. When we focus on the links
between climate variability and health, there are three important exposure
pathways by which climate change affects our health. These include through
(1) direct exposure through extreme weather events, such as heat and storms;
(2) indirect exposure pathways through changes in the ecosystems which
affect disease vectors and disease transmission. Let us now understand these
processes in detail in the following paragraphs.
12.2 OBJECTIVES
• understand the linkages between weather and climate to human health;

• describe the direct and indirect effects of climate change on human
health; and
• explain the impacts of climate change on migration and livelihoods.
12.3 DIRECT EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH

According to a report of the World Bank in 2010 the baseline health of a
country is related to the amount of impact that could be caused due to climate
change and also the costs for its adaptation. Therefore the likely risks and
impacts of climate change vary between countries. A small change in the
global climate will affect the normal functioning of the earth’s ecosystems.
Some countries may experience extreme cold temperatures and people living
in such areas would want warmer climates; for example the USA. Likewise
certain areas may receive very hot temperatures and people would want
cooler temperatures. These changes in climate can lead to beneficial and/or
214
adverse effects. The changes that may be witnessed initially may be some Atmosphere and
changes in the seasonality of some infectious diseases. This includes vector- Climate
borne infections such as mosquito-borne diseases: dengue, chikungunya and

so on that strike during the warmer periods. Some plant and animal varieties
may die or even go extinct due to changes in climate variability, whereas
some species are able to adapt themselves to the changed conditions. Some
other significant impacts of climate change include changing food
productions, agrarian distress and socio-economic issues. The table 12.1
given below gives you an idea of some environmental changes, the diseases
caused therein and the different pathways responsible for bringing about
infectious diseases in human beings.
Table 12.1 Environmental changes and infectious diseases in human

beings
Environmental Outbreak of Pathways responsible

Changes Diseases
From Dams and Malaria; Breeding sites for mosquitoes;
irrigation Schistosomiasis Snail host habitat – human
contact
Agricultural Malaria Crop insecticides, vector
intensification and resistance
activities related to
agriculture
Urban crowding Cholera; Sanitation, hygiene, water
Dengue contamination;
Water collecting trash,
Breeding sites for mosquitoes
Deforestation Malaria; Crop insecticides, vector
Visceral resistance;
leishmaniasis Sand-fly vectors
Reforestation Lyme disease Tick hosts, outdoor exposure
Ocean warming Red tide Increase in toxic algal blooms
High precipitation Rift valley fever; Breeding sites for mosquitoes;
Hantavirus Increase in rodent food,
pulmonary disease habitat abundance
(Source: Wilson, 2001)
We are exposed to changing weather patterns, changes in water, air, food

quality, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure (Confalonieri et al., 2007).
These direct and indirect exposures have already resulted in a number of
health impacts. This will continue and most of them are anticipated to be
negative and will profoundly worsen if the present trends continue. Most of
the health impacts resulting from extreme weather events can be prevented 215
Introduction to
Global Climate through early warning systems and public health preparedness and response
Change action.
Climate change can have direct effects on human health. These are through
extreme weather events and are referred to as primary pathways. Let us now
understand some direct effects of climate change on human health.
12.3.1 Increased Frequency of Heat Stress

Health can be defined as ‘a complete state of physical, mental and social
well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity’ (WHO). A
normal healthy human has the internal temperature of around 37°C. When we
have an illness there can be an increase in body’s temperature. There can also
be subtle changes with weather and seasonal fluctuations. Through various
metabolic pathways the body copes up with these changes. The
hypothalamus in the human brain controls and regulates our temperature,
balances salt concentrations and several other involuntary functions such as
breathing, digestion, heart functioning and so on. Through the processes of
sweating, convection and radiation the transfer of heat from the body takes
place. When the temperature around us (outside) is the same as the human’s
skin temperature, then there is usually no radiant heat loss or gain. When the
body gets warm the hypothalamus and nervous system instruct the sweat
glands to draw water from the dermis, which causes evaporation and cools
the skin. Heat causes heat stress in humans and also in animals. It has adverse
effects on the population too. Industrialization and urbanization have resulted
in increasing urban heat island effects. In extreme hot conditions the rate of
"heat gain" is more than the rate of "heat loss". As a result, our body
temperatures increase which results in various health disorders. High heat
exposures can result in exhaustion, fatigue, dehydration and heat stroke. In
extreme cases and among the elderly or in children it can also lead to sudden
death. Heat stress has influences on our mental health. It can lead to nervous
and psychological disorders, anxiety pangs and disturbed sleep patterns.
Heat stress can cause the following diseases.
• Heat Rashes: They occur as small red spots with a prickling sensation.
It is caused due to the inflammation of the sweat glands.
• Heat Cramps: This occurs due to salt imbalance.
• Heat Exhaustion: This occurs due to excessive sweating. It can result in

fatigue, weakness, dizziness, eye disorders, intense thirst, nausea,
headache, vomiting, diarrhea, muscle cramps, breathlessness,
palpitations, tingling and numbness of the hands and feet.
• Heat Stroke: This may be fatal and occurs when the body temperatures
are above 41°C.
216
Some other important diseases caused due to heat include: Atmosphere and
Climate
• Diseases of the Kidney: High and long exposures to very high
temperatures can cause major kidney diseases. It can be due to impaired
water regulating abilities of the human body.
• Diseases of the Heart: Very hot temperatures can cause cardiac

dysfunction, heart stroke and increase cardiovascular diseases.
Note: i) Write your answer in about 50 words.
ii) Check your progress with possible answers given at the end of the
unit.
1) List the various diseases caused by heat stress.
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12.3.2 Vector - borne Diseases

These diseases will increase with climate change as predicted by the World
Health Organization (WHO). Vectors are living organisms that can transmit
infectious diseases among human beings and from animals to humans.
Majority of the diseases are spread by bloodsucking insects. These insects
while taking their bloodmeal infect another person when they bite.
Mosquitoes, ticks, flies, sandflies, fleas, bed bugs and some freshwater
aquatic snails are known vectors. Historically, vector-borne diseases have
been recorded in different countries in various climates. The African sleeping
sickness caused by Trypanosoma brucei (vector is the tsetse fly) and the
Chagas fever caused by Trypanosoma cruzi (vector is the triatomine bug) are
some examples. However, the vector-borne diseases are steadily increasing as
an indirect result of climate change. These diseases are highest in tropical and
subtropical areas. These diseases infect millions of humans each year and are
mostly transmitted through mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. The vectors are
carriers of viruses, bacteria and protozoans. These diseases can be severe and
debilitating. Climate variability in recent years has caused several people to
be affected by dengue, West Nile fever, chikungunya, zika and nipah viruses.
Let us now learn about some of the vector borne diseases in the following
paragraphs.
217
Introduction to
Global Climate 1) Mosquito-borne diseases
Change
a) Dengue: It affects millions of people globally every year. In India
dengue epidemics have occurred and are affecting the population every
year. Early monsoons and unusually wet and warm weathers have
resulted in several dengue outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions. Aedes
mosquitoes transmit the dengue virus that is sensitive to environmental
conditions. A. aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes are vectors for
dengue virus. Approximately 40% of the global population lives in
dengue-risk regions. Unlike chikungunya, a person infected with dengue
can be infected a second time and this can be severe and sometimes fatal.
The symptoms observed include high fever, headache, rash and muscle
and joint pain, sometimes bleeding and shock. Higher temperatures
reduce the time required for the virus replication and disseminate in the
mosquito. This is known as the “extrinsic incubation period”. This
occurs before the virus reaches the salivary glands of the mosquitoes to
infect humans. When the mosquito becomes infectious due to warmer
temperatures, it has a greater chance of infecting man before it dies.
Dengue is endemic in many countries with tropical climates.
b) Chikungunya: Changing weather and climate variability has caused the

re-emergence of chikungunya. It is caused by the chikungunya virus and
is spread through the mosquitoes Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti.
Chikungunya is caused by the arbovirus. The symptoms usually occur
after a week of exposure and results in high fever, severe headache,
rashes on the body, severe myalgia, joint pain, immobility, swelling in
the ankles, toes, finger joints and extreme pain in all the joints including
shoulder, finger and toe joints that stay for months together. The pain can
be as long as 6 months to a year and can recur in some people. The
disease also causes post stress severe hair fall and vitamin deficiencies.
The disease was first reported in Tanzania in 1952. The word
chikungunya comes from the African Kimakonde language meaning
"bent posture or to become contorted". Epidemics began in 2004 and
spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean. In 2005, it affected more than a
million people in India and in the French island of Réunion in the
southwest Indian Ocean. The disease has re-emerged in South India and
several people have been affected with this virus. It appears that the
chikungunya re-emergence depends on several factors – climate being an
important one. With drought and heavy rainfall events disease vectors
will spread quickly and vector-borne chikungunya prevalence is likely to
increase, with the possibility of becoming endemic globally.
Chikungunya is a major threat in the developing countries.
c) Zika Virus: Zika virus is also transmitted through mosquitoes and is a

flavivirus. It was first noticed among monkeys in Africa in 1947. In the
year 1952 the disease was observed in humans in Uganda and the United
Republic of Tanzania. In 2013 a large outbreak was reported in French
218
Polynesia and other countries in the Pacific. Symptoms of the disease Atmosphere and
include fever, rash, conjunctivitis, muscle and joint pain, malaise, and Climate
headache. The infection lasts for 2–7 days. Severe storms and increasing
temperatures are some environmental factors for the sudden resurgence
of this disease.
d) Malaria: Malaria is also another important vector-borne disease that has

affected millions of people globally. It is transmitted by the female
Anopheles mosquito. The causative organism causing malaria is the
protozoan Plasmodium sp. transmitted through the mosquitoes. So far
five species are known to cause malaria in humans. They are P. vivax, P.
ovale, P. falciparum, P. malariae, and P. knowlesi. Plasmodium
parasites multiply in the human liver after an infected mosquito bites and
then it destroys the red blood cells. The symptoms of malaria are
characterized by high fever with shivering, headaches, seizures,
vomiting, fatigue, pain. Scientific research has proven that the linkages
between malaria and extreme climatic events are directly related.
Excessive rainfall and high humidity are some factors responsible for
increasing mosquito breeding and survival. Studies have brought out the
relationship between climatic variables and biological parameters in
malaria epidemics. The vector breeding, survival, mosquito biting rates,
and parasite incubation rates are directly linked to climate variables.
Therefore, climate change affects vector and parasite biology and disease
transmission. The World Bank report estimates that by the year 2050,
climate change will bring about a 50% higher probability of malaria in
previously unexposed regions of South America, sub-Saharan Africa and
China (World Bank report, 2012).
2) Tick-borne diseases
a) Spotted Fever Rickettsia: This disease is caused by certain groups of

bacteria and spread to humans through the bite of infected mites and
ticks. The bacteria causing it belong to the order Rickettsiales and
genera Rickettsia, Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Neorickettsia, Neoehrlichia,
and Orientia. Rickettsia spp. are classified into the spotted fever group
and the typhus group. The disease transmission is through bites from
ectoparasites such as lice, fleas, mites and their infectious fluids. People
have been affected by inhaling bacteria and when on travel in endemic
areas. It is frequently reported with people going on safaris, walking in
bushes, hunting especially in Africa.
b) Tularemia: This disease infects animals especially rabbits and then to

human beings. Hares are also infected with this disease. Human beings
can be infected by tick and deerfly bites, contact with the infected
animals, drinking contaminated water and also by the inhalation of
contaminated aerosols or from agricultural dust. Recently scientists from
Stockholm University, Sweden have developed a method for predicting
impacts of climate change on tularemia outbreaks in humans. Their study 219
Introduction to
Global Climate emphasizes that the disease will increase in high-latitude regions due to
Change temperature rise and be favourable for the vectors of this disease.
3) Flea-borne diseases
a) Plague: This disease is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It affects

human beings when we are bitten by rodent flea which are carriers of the
bacterium or when we touch an infected animal or through the infectious
droplets in the air. The infected people show large swollen lymph nodes
in the groin, armpit or neck, fever accompanied with shivering, muscle
pains. The disease spread in the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Madagascar and Peru in the year 2017. Historically the disease
was prevalent in the 14th century leading to 50 million deaths and is
referred to as the “Black death”.
12.3.3 Non vector-borne Diseases

These diseases also cause infection in human beings every year. They are
transmitted from birds, cattle and so on. The Avian influenza and Swine flu
epidemics were infectious and affected several people world-wide. Climate
variability is a factor for the increasing incidence of these diseases.
a) Brucellosis: This disease is a zoonotic infection caused by bacteria of

the Brucella genus. Human beings get infected when in contact with
infected cattle, or through ingestion of contaminated food products or by
inhaling infected aerosols. It is also commonly known as Mediterranean
fever, Malta fever, gastric remittent fever, and undulant fever. Human
beings are usually accidental hosts. Brucellosis is the most common
zoonotic infection world-wide. The bacteria occur as small aerobic
intracellular coccobacilli and live in the reproductive organs of animals
such as cattle and lead to sterility and abortions in cattle. The bacteria are
excreted in large numbers in the animal’s milk, urine, placental fluid, and
other fluids.
b) Leptospirosis: It is also known as Weil’s disease. Many animals such as

pigs, goats, sheeps, horses and deers also carry this bacterium and
transmit the same to humans. The disease affects human beings through
direct contact with urine from infected animals, from soil, contaminated
water with animal urine after rains and so on. It is highly prevalent in
warmer climates. Symptoms include high fever, malaise, conjunctivitis,
bleeding, vomiting, myalgia and meningitis. When left untreated
leptospirosis leads to kidney and liver damage and can also be fatal.
c) Avian influenza: This is also known as bird flu or Avian flu. It is a

disease caused by a strain of influenza virus and birds are the hosts for
this. In the years 2013 to 2017 there were more than 900 human cases of
H7N9 cases as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Most
of the infected people had visited poultry markets or had consumed
220 contaminated poultry products, handling dead infected birds, infected
fluids. The transmission is not human to human but from birds to Atmosphere and
humans. It can occur as a result of climate, altered breeding grounds. Climate
Climate change is an important factor because it can alter the conditions

in the persistence of the virus and disease transmission. It is also
responsible for changing the migration patterns among birds.
d) Swine fever: It is also referred to as hog cholera. It is a viral disease and

contagious among swine (pigs). It is caused by Pestivirus of the
family Flaviviridae. It has been reported in the 19th century in the United
States. In 1997 there was an outbreak of the flu in Netherlands and killed
11 million pigs. The disease is transmitted from infected pigs. The virus
is transmitted through the saliva, nasal fluids, urine and faeces of the
swine. Humans are infected when in contact with infected swine,
contaminated feed, clothing, vehicles, and so on. The virus can also
survive in pork and processed pork products for months and years even
when preserved in freezers.
Note: i) Write your answer in about 50 words.
ii) Check your progress with possible answers given at the end of the
unit.
1) Write short notes on vector-borne diseases.
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) Write short notes on non vector-borne diseases.
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
12.4 INDIRECT EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH

These effects can be for example through droughts leading to disease and
malnutrition. Drought which is climate related with extended periods on non-
availability of water or rains can cause community – level impacts such as
water shortages. This can lead to diarrhea, cholera and other infectious
diseases. Children are most susceptible to diarrhea. Health responses for such 221
Introduction to
Global Climate events are to provide food supplementation and health care, epidemic
Change surveillance and early warning systems, and water safety plans that assess
and address the health risks posed by climate variability and change.
12.4.1 Malnutrition and Hunger

Hunger is greatest in Africa, India, and parts of north Asia and the Western
Pacific. World over more people are food insecure and under-nourished.
Increasing temperatures and variable precipitation will influence the
production of staple foods and there will be a decline. This will increase the
risk of malnutrition (IPCC, 2014). Crop yields could decline in Central and
South Asia by the mid-21st century. Also, greenhouse gas emissions can
affect plant growth and nutrient concentrations. Rapid population growth and
urbanization will also increase malnutrition and hunger risks. World over
there will be enormous inequity in relation to underweight children under the
age of five. Large populations, under nutrition and poor health, affect the
productivity and economic development of many developing nations.
Diarrhea causes high child mortality and morbidity rates globally. It normally
occurs due to improper sanitation and hygiene and drinking contaminated
water. Globally approximately more than 700 million individuals lack access
to improved drinking water and 2.5 billion lack improved sanitation,
according to WHO, 2014. In developing countries, children under three years
have at least a minimum of three episodes of diarrhea each year. This is
responsible for child malnutrition as the necessary nutrients are lost. As a
result, stunted growth, vitamin D deficiencies, Beriberi, Kwashiorkor,
hypoproteinemia, goitre and so on are common.
12.4.2 Food Insecurity

Since 1850’s there has been an increase in the greenhouse gas emissions due
to fossil fuel burning for our energy demands and agriculture intensification
for increasing food demands. These activities have brought about a change in
the ecosystem and have impacted food security. Agriculture is the lifeline for
majority of the people globally. It gives us food and provides a source of
livelihood. Agriculture, forestry and also fisheries are directly affected by
climate change. Again, climate change influences the growth of plants and
animals, their metabolism, biodiversity and nutrient cycling. Climate change
can result in the emergence of new diseases and pests that will attack plants
and livestock thereby posing risks for food security. All this along with
water-borne diseases due to weather extremes can affect human health and
for assimilating essential nutrients from foods. Some vectors and diseases are
seen to rise during specific humidity-temperature conditions and irrigation
management regimes. These changes will expose crops, livestock, fish and
eventually humans to new risks. Climate variability will affect food
availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability. It
will also impact human health, food production and livelihood assets. These
effects are already being experienced world over in the food markets. Supply
222
chains will be disrupted, market prices will increase, livelihood opportunities Atmosphere and
and health are threatened. The people who are dependent on agriculture- Climate
based livelihood systems are the most vulnerable. They are impacted first due
to risk of crop failure, pest attacks and diseases, lack of seeds and loss of
livestock. Also, inhabitants on the coastlines and mountains also face risk.
Both the developed and the developing world will be impacted. Climate
change can trigger resource - based conflicts and civil unrest, thereby
affecting food systems. We can mitigate this by changing agricultural
practices and reducing greenhouse gases.
12.5 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HUMAN

SETTLEMENTS, MIGRATION AND
LIVELIHOOD
12.5.1 Climate Change Impacts on Human Settlements and
Migration
From time immemorial humans have travelled and settled along coastlines
and other places for their livelihood and better opportunities. Some people
are displaced due to conflicts, dam construction related issues and also due to
catastrophes such the 2004 tsunami where millions were affected and
displaced. Drought and extreme climatic events also force people to search
for better economic conditions and employment either temporarily or
permanently. Another example is the 2008 Kosi floods that displaced many
in Nepal and India. These events are sudden and sometimes unforeseen
events. Sudden-onset hazards have forced several million to migrate to other
areas. The hazards cause physical loss of land and natural resources and
people are unable to cope or adapt with the changes. On the other hand,
drought is a slow creeping hazard. Slow-onset hazards still give people time
to adapt themselves to the situation by regenerating the soil fertility and using
appropriate seeds for cultivation etc. There are many factors that influence
human migration. They include social, environmental, cultural, economic and
political. The Paris Agreement gives references to migration and
displacement. In the preamble, it refers to the vulnerability of migrants, and
calls on states to ‘respect, promote and consider their respective obligations
on human rights’ when taking action to address climate change (UNFCCC,
2015: 1). It also addresses the need for a task force to ‘develop
recommendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and address
displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change’ (UNFCCC,
2015). The Hyogo Framework for Action also recognized displacement as a
potential driver of vulnerability (UNISDR, 2005). The Sendai Framework
focuses on displacement in response to extreme events (UNISDR, 2015).
Therefore, climate change brings about migration both within and cross-
borders.
223
Introduction to
Global Climate 12.5.2 Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods
Change
Livelihoods can be defined as the different types of assets, abilities and
activities that enable a person or household to survive (FAO, 2003). These
assets include physical assets such as infrastructure and domestic assets;
financial assets such as cash, jewellery, savings, mutual funds and pensions;
natural assets such as natural resources, land for agriculture; social assets,
which are based on the cohesiveness of people and societies; and human
assets such as education and skills for survival. All these assets change with
time (with cycle of events, we may lose or earn the assets) and are always
different for various households and communities. In general, we should have
a mix of assets so that we can tide over difficult situations. Our ancestors
always believed in having mixed assets.
In society we have different groups, various communities and not all can
adapt to the climate change driven impacts. The marginal groups are those
people who have few or lesser resources and power and they are not able to
adapt themselves to the changes. In fact, they can be negatively impacted. It
is usually people’s few productive assets that are at greatest risk from the
impacts of climate change. In principle, all the physical assets can be
damaged, financial losses can occur, natural assets can be degraded or even
destroyed and social assets can be undermined. Climate variability can result
in certain food products becoming scarce at certain times of the year. Such
seasonal variations in food supply, along with vulnerabilities to flooding etc.
can impact livelihoods. Although these impacts might appear indirect, they
are important because many marginal livelihood groups are close to the
poverty line. Food is a key element of their existence. The main source of
livelihood for the marginal groups is agriculture, livestock rearing and
fishing. In most instances the challenges encountered by the rural livelihoods
drive urban migration. When the numbers of the poor and vulnerable groups
in urban slums increase, the availability of employment opportunities which
are non-agriculture/non-farm based and the access of urban dwellers to obtain
sufficient food products from the market will become increasingly important
drivers of food security. A study by the International Labour Organization
study (ILO, 2005) reports that there will be significant variations among the
low income and middle-income countries in regarding the impacts of climate
variability on livelihoods dependent on agriculture. The livelihood groups
that are of concern in the context of climate changes include the low-income
group affected by drought and flood; those who have poor food distribution
and emergency response mechanisms. For example, fishermen living along
the coastlines may experience sea-surges, storms, tsunamis and their fishing
infrastructures may be damaged. They can lose their homes constructed
nearby that are washed away by the storms. What happens to their
livelihoods then? In the same way farmers may experience flash floods,
wherein their land can be completely submerged and their crops may be
destroyed. So, such changing temperature and rainfall conditions can
224 devastate their livelihoods immediately. Therefore, climate change has
serious consequences and affects the lives of a million people around the Atmosphere and
world. Climate
Adaptation measures are necessary to address these concerns. They include

preparing heat wave early warning systems, urban planning to reduce the
urban heat island effect, better land-use planning, community relocation,
reducing the vulnerability of essential services such as water, energy and
food, and measures to assist vulnerable sectors and households. In addition,
early warning systems and flood and cyclone shelters are also important
health related adaptation strategies.
12.6 LET US SUM UP

Climate variability affects health and well being. Climate change and its
associated diseases are presenting new risks. Climate change introduces new
pests, microbial agents, and disease emergence. So, climate change is a
critical public health issue. Changes in climate variability result in extreme
weather events and changes in the ecosystems. These changes modify the
vector habitats and favor the spread of diseases. Therefore, it is important to
address climate change and raise awareness of the link between such change
and diseases. Also, socio-economic factors such as land use change,
population growth and urbanization, migration, and economic development
all are impacted by climate change. These need to be understood well for risk
assessment studies. We as individuals must help identify areas that are at
greatest risk to climate change to help decision makers prioritize protective
action plans. In this way we can support adaptation and mitigation of climate
change to build healthier and sustainable communities. In this unit we have
studied about climate change and its direct and indirect linkages to human
health.
12.7 KEY WORDS

Health: Health can be defined as ‘a complete state of physical, mental and
social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity’
(WHO).
Morbidity: A disease or condition that reduces health and the quality of life.
The morbidity rate is a measure of the frequency of disease among a defined
population during a specified time period.
Mortality: It is the number of deaths in a defined population during a

specified time period.
Livelihood: Livelihoods can be defined as the different types of assets,

abilities and activities that enable a person or household to survive (FAO,
2003).
225
Introduction to
Global Climate 12.8 SUGGESTED FURTHER
Change
READING/REFERENCES
Confalonieri. U, B. Menne, T. Akhtar et al. 2007. “Human health. Climate
Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change,” in: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden, C.E. Hanson, eds. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change
2007 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 391–431.
Hugo, G. (2010) ‘Climate Change-Induced Mobility and the Existing

Migration Regime in Asia and the Pacific’, in McAdam, J. (ed.), Climate
Change and Displacement, Multidisciplinary Perspectives. Oxford: Portland.
IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to

Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press
IPCC (2014) ’Regional Context’, in Barros, V., Field, C. et al. (eds), Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional
Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
IPCC (2014) ‘Adaptation Needs and Options’, in Field, C., Barros, V. et al.
(eds), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:
Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (2014) ‘Summary for Policymakers’, in Field, C., Barros, V. et al.

(eds), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:
Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC 2007.Fourth Assessment Report. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis

Report, Summary for policy-makers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
Martens WJM, Rotmans J, Rothman DS In: Martens WJM, McMichael AJ

(eds). Environmental Change, Climate and Health: Issues and Research
Methods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002, pp. 197- 225.
Patil.SS., S. R. Patil, P. M. Durgawale et al. 2011. “A study of the outbreak

of Chikungunya fever,” Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research 7/6
(2013), pp. 1059–62; S. Aswathy, S. Dinesh, B. Kurien, et al. “A post-
epidemic study on awareness of vector habits of Chikungunya and vector
226
indices in a rural area of Kerala,” The Journal of Communicable Atmosphere and
Diseases 43/3, p. 209–215. Climate
Patz, J.A., et al., 2000. Effects of environmental change on emerging

parasitic diseases. Int J Parasitol, 30(12-13): p. 1395-405.
Paz S. 2015. Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a

global context. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of
London.Series B, Biological sciences, 370(1665), 20130561.
doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0561
Powers.AM.and C. H. Logue. 2007. “Changing patterns of chikungunya

virus: re-emergence of a zoonotic arbovirus,” The Journal of General
Virology 88/9, pp. 2363–2377.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics,
‘Turn-down the Heat – Why a 4-degree Warmer World Must be Avoided,’
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and World Bank,
Washington, DC, 2012.
Trenberth.KE., P. D. Jones, P. Ambenje et al. 2007. “Observations: Surface

and Atmospheric Climate: contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” in:
D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, and M. Tignor,
eds. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
UNFCCC (2011) ‘Report of the Conference of the Parties: The Cancun

Agreements, Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the
Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention’.
FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1, Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the
Parties at its sixteenth session. Bonn: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/resource/
docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=4.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

(2016).Task Force on Displacement. Bonn: UNFCCC.
Wilson, M.L. 2001. Ecology and infectious disease, in Ecosystem Change

and Public Health: A Global Perspective, J.L. Aron and J.A. Patz, Editors.
2001, Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore. p. 283-324.
World Health Organization, “Chikungunya and Dengue in the south west

Indian Ocean,” P. Renault, J-L.Solet, D. Sissoko et al. 2007.“A Major
Epidemic of Chikungunya Virus Infection on Réunion Island, France, 2005–
2006,” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 77/4 pp.
727–731; G. Pialoux, B-A.Gaüzère, S. Jauréguiberry et al. “Chikungunya, an
epidemic arbovirosis,” The Lancet Infectious Diseases 7/5 (2007), pp. 319–
327.
227
Introduction to
Global Climate 12.9 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS
Change
Answers to Check Your Progress 1
1) Your answer should include the following points:
• Heat edema
• Heat rashes
• Heat cramps
• Heat stroke
• Kidney diseases
• Cardiovascular diseases
Answers to Check Your Progress 2
• Dengue
• Chikungunya
• Zika virus
• Nipah virus
• Malaria
• Tularemia
• Spotted fever Rickettsia
• Brucellosis
• Leptospirosis
• Avian flu
• Swine flu
228
Atmosphere and
Climate
BLOCK 4
RESPONSE STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
229
Introduction to
Change
Climate change as science has received unprecedented attention from both
scientific institutions and academia. Climate change is a global issue that
requires worldwide cooperation and negotiations for developing the
necessary actions to combat its effects. This requires the integration of
adaptation into existing policies and processes, taking into account the
broader policy objectives and wider costs and benefits. Adaptive capacity is
an important element of long‐term adaptation to climate change. Interest is
growing in supporting vulnerable people and communities to adapt to the
impacts of a changing climate. There is an increasing emphasis on integrating
adaptation into current policy and development, rather than implementing
measures as a standalone activity. Climate change mitigation efforts aim to
reduce the magnitude of future warming. The measures used for climate
change mitigation are mainly the deployment of renewable energies and new
technologies, enhancing energy efficiency, and improved sustainable
agricultural and consumer practices.
Response strategies for climate change will require a central role of
education. Education helps people understand and address the impact of
global warming, encourage change in their attitudes and behaviour and help
them adapt to climate change-related trends. The education and capacity
building has also attracted the attention of policymakers, environmental
activists, multilateral organizations and stimulated diplomatic activities
across the world. Various stakeholders need additional capacity, not only to
deal with the additional challenges of climate change but also to enhance
development efforts and safeguard development gains.
Climate change management at the international level consists of the 1992
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the
1997 Kyoto Protocol and the decisions taken by the signatory countries under
these instruments. Paris Agreement on climate change entered into force on
4th November 2016. The main features of the agreement are universal
application; the principle of equity and principle of common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; and a "legally
binding agreement that will apply to those states that have expressed their
consent to be bound through ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession".
Concerning our country, the agreement demands India to submit "national
contributions" every five years; and to embark on a low carbon development
pathway.
Unit 13 “Adaptation Strategies” deals with the characteristics and determinants
of adaptive capacity, and the adaptive strategies against climate change.
Unit 14 “Mitigation Strategies” deals with the mitigation strategies, carbon
capture and sequestration, alternate energy options and sustainable buildings.
Unit 15 “Education and Capacity Building” deals with climate change
education, capacity building and the international concerns for capacity
building and climate change education.
230
Unit 16 “Climate Change Policy” deals with Copenhagen Summit, Paris Atmosphere and
Agreement, National Action Plan on Climate Change and State’s Action Plan Climate
in India.
• explain the adaptive strategies from the perspective of climate change;
• explain carbon capture and sequestration;
• discuss the alternate energy options;
• explain sustainable buildings;
• discuss climate change education;
• discuss the international concerns for capacity building and climate
change education;
• explain the significance of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement on
Climate Change;
• describe National Action Plan on Climate Change; and
• examine the efforts of state governments in India to address climate
change-related issues.
the response strategies to climate change.
231
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
232
UNIT 13 ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES AND Atmosphere and
Climate
CAPACITIES
Structure
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Objectives
13.3 From Adaptation to Adaptive Capacity
13.4 Characterizing Adaptive Capacity
13.5 Determinants for Adaptive Capacity
13.6 Strengthening Adaptive Capacity
13.7 Adaptation Planning for Resilience
13.8 Adaptation Strategies
13.8.1 Community Based Adaptation
13.8.2 Ecosystem Based Adaptation

13.9 Let Us Sum Up
13.10 Key Words
13.1 INTRODUCTION
Adaptive capacity is an important element of long‐term adaptation to climate
change. Interest is growing in supporting vulnerable people and communities
to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. Nevertheless, the impacts that
development interventions have on adaptive capacity at the local and state
level remains limited. Most development interventions are not designed with
a climate change adaptation strategy. There is an increasing emphasis on
integrating (mainstreaming) adaptation into current policy and development,
rather than implementing measures as a standalone activity. Climate change
is a global issue that requires worldwide cooperation and negotiations for
developing the necessary actions to combat its effects. This requires the
integration of adaptation into existing policies and processes, taking into
account the broader policy objectives and wider costs and benefits.
Adaptive capacity is “the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or

behaviour, in order to expand its coping range under existing climate
variability or future climate conditions”. In practical terms, “adaptive
capacity is the ability to design and implement effective adaptation strategies,
or to react to evolving hazards and stresses so as to reduce the likelihood of
the occurrence and/or the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from
climate-related hazards”. The adaptation process requires the capacity to
learn from previous experiences to cope with current climate, and to apply
233
Introduction to
Global Climate these lessons to cope with future climate, including surprises. In this unit, we
Change would be discussing the characteristics and determinants of adaptive
capacity, and the adaptive strategies against climate change.
13.2 OBJECTIVES
• explain the characteristics and determinants of adaptive capacity; and

• explain the adaptive strategies from the perspective of climate change.
13.3 FROM ADAPTATION TO ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY
Capacity is a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a
community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the
effects of a disaster. Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or
economic means as well as skilled personal or collective attributes such as
leadership and management. “Adaptation in the context of human dimensions
of global change usually refers to a process, action or outcome in a system
(household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the
system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition,
stress, hazard, risk or opportunity. Numerous definitions of adaptation are
found in climate change literature, mostly variations on a common theme”
(Smit and Wandel, 2006). Adaptation is described as ‘‘adjustments in a
system’s behavior and characteristics that enhance its ability to cope with
external stress’’ or ‘‘adjustments in ecological-socio-economic systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects or impacts.’’ also
in the climate context, defines adaptations as the ‘‘adjustments in individual
groups and institutional behavior in order to reduce society’s vulnerability to
climate.’’ Based on their timing, adaptations can be anticipatory or reactive,
and depending on their degree of spontaneity, they can be autonomous or
planned. The concepts of adaptation, adaptive capacity, vulnerability,
resilience, exposure and sensitivity are interrelated and have wide application
to global change science (Smit and Wandel, 2006).
The final core concept of climate change adaptation is that of capacity: ‘the
ability of a system to adjust to climate change’. Adaptive capacity does not
refer to short-term coping strategies but encompasses continuous and
permanent change in the system. To highlight this subtle difference, the IPCC
(2001) defines the “coping range” as the ‘variation in climatic stimuli that a
system can absorb without producing significant impacts. As such, there is an
implied limit to coping which may be well addressed within existing natural
resource management. What makes adapting (the capacity to adjust) unique is
that it is permanent and requires a change in the system rather than pushing
the limits of the current system.
234
As mentioned above, the adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust Atmosphere and
to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate Climate
potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the

consequences (IPCC, 2001). Adaptive capacity relates to the capacity
of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential
damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences
(IPCC, 2014). The expression of adaptive capacity as actions that lead to
adaptation can serve to enhance a system’s coping capacity and increase its
coping range thereby reducing its vulnerability to climate hazards. The
adaptive capacity inherent in a system represents the set of resources
available for adaptation, as well as the ability or capacity of that system to
use these resources effectively in the pursuit of adaptation. Adaptation can be
spontaneous or planned, and can be carried out in response to or in
anticipation of changes in climatic conditions.
“Adaptive capacity is in line with other concepts like adaptability, coping

ability, management capacity, stability, robustness. Further, the ability to
undertake adaptations is influenced by managerial ability, access to financial,
technological and information resources, infrastructure, the institutional
environment within which adaptations occur, political influence, kinship
networks, etc.” (Smit and Wandel, 2006). At the heart of any local-level
adaptation intervention is the need to increase the individual or community’s
adaptive capacity. There is still much debate around the definition and
practical applications of the term adaptive capacity. A key component of the
adaptive capacity is ensuring that individuals, communities and societies are
actively involved in processes of change. Importantly, this relates to changes
in behaviour, as well as in resources and technological pressures associated
with development.
13.4 CHARACTERIZING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

In order to understand how adaptive capacity can be influenced at the local
level, it is important to characterize it. Unfortunately, direct assessments of
adaptive capacity are not feasible, and so it becomes necessary to identify the
characteristics or features that influence it. Nevertheless, understandings of
adaptive capacity are still very much in their infancy and there is no
agreement about its characteristics and determinants at national, community
or household level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
identifies economic wealth, technology, information and skills, infrastructure,
institutions and equity as the principal determinants of adaptive capacity
(IPCC, 2001), though no distinction is made between determinants at national
and local level. In these social factors, in particular power relations e.g.,
‘social capital’, governance structures and the role and functions of
institutions have been underplayed. “The vulnerability of any system is
dependent on the exposure, sensitivity of that system and the ability of the
system to cope, adapt or recover from the effects of those conditions”. It
must be noted that the capacity to adapt is function of resource availability, 235
Introduction to
Global Climate social structure and networks, governance structure and technology. Within
Change the society also, the vulnerability to climate change or capacity to adapt
differs with individuals and groups. For instance, women are more vulnerable
than the men to climate change.
There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation. High adaptive capacity
does not necessarily translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. For
example, despite a high capacity to adapt to heat stress through relatively
inexpensive adaptations, residents in urban areas in some parts of the world,
including in European cities, continue to experience high levels of mortality.
There are significant barriers to implementing adaptation. These include both
the inability of natural systems to adapt to the rate and magnitude of climate
change, as well as technological, financial, cognitive and behavioural, and
social and cultural constraints. There are also significant knowledge gaps for
adaptation as well as impediments to flows of knowledge and information
relevant for adaptation decisions. New planning processes are attempting to
overcome these barriers at local, regional and national levels in both
developing and developed countries. For example, least-developed countries
are developing National Adaptation Programmes of Action and some
developed countries have established national adaptation policy frameworks.
13.5 DETERMINANTS FOR ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY
The adaptive capacity is determined by a web of factors, which may be local,
socio-economic and political factors. For instance, the local factors like
kinship greatly influence the ability to cope up with stress. As regards the
political factors, measures like state sponsored crop insurance can be great
relief to the farmers’ and it increases the adaptive capacity of the farmers.
Adaptive capacity is dynamic as it varies with time, individuals, community
and country, (Smit and Wandel, 2006). Principal determinants of adaptive
capacity according to the IPCC (2001) include economic wealth, technology,
information and skills, infrastructure, institutions and equity. Others include
social capital and good governance as additional key components.
Determinants for adaptive capacity are also depicted through the availability
of resources and their distribution across the population. Research on
adaptive capacity in climate change is very limited and is a key research
need. However, substantial literature in other fields (economic development,
sustainable development, resource management) can provide insights into the
likely key determinants of adaptive capacity. These represent conditions that
constrain or enhance adaptive capacity and hence the vulnerability of regions,
nations and communities. Consideration of these determinants provides
another pathway to the overarching goal of protecting and enhancing human
health.
236
13.6 STRENGTHENING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Atmosphere and
Climate
An enabling policy and legal framework that strengthens community

adaptive capacity should be able to facilitate the ability of communities to
adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with
the consequences of climate change. This would entail promoting innovation,
institutions and entitlement, information and knowledge sharing, asset base
development, and governance. Adaptive capacity refers to individual and or
collective strength and resources that can be accessed to allow individuals
and communities to reduce their vulnerability to the impact of hazards.
These capacities can either prevent or mitigate the impact of a given hazard,
or prepare the community to respond to the impact better (readiness).
Box 13.1: Examples of Adaptive Capacity Indicators
Often adaptive capacity is generalised without clear indicators. It is

dependent on a variety of social, economic, political, technological and
institutional factors: varying in weight depending on the scale of analysis.
The relationship between these indicators at the national level changes when
the focus turns to the community level. The Local Adaptive Capacity
Framework by the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA),
outlines the main determinants of adaptive capacity, which include the asset
base of a community, institutions and entitlements, knowledge and
information, innovation and governance (ACCRA, 2010).
Asset Base
The various financial, physical, natural, social, political and human capitals
necessary to best prepare a system to respond to a changing climate. This
category incorporates the importance of various capitals, often informal, non-
monetary and reliant on various social networks.
Institutions and Entitlements
The ability of system to ensure equitable access and entitlement to key

resources and assets is a fundamental characteristic of adaptive capacity.
Given that entitlements to key resources needed to adapt can be differentiated
along age, ethnicity, class, religion and gender (to name but a few), an
institutional environment that allows equitable opportunities to all groups,
particularly the marginal, and most vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change is essential to building the capacity to adapt.
Knowledge and Information
Successful adaptation requires information and understanding of future

change, knowledge around adaptation options, the ability to assess them, and
the capacity to implement the most suitable interventions. In the context of
climate change, it is important to ensure that systems are in place to distribute
relevant information at both national and region scales.
237
Introduction to
Global Climate Innovation
Change
Innovation can be planned and high-tech. It can be autonomous, local-level
initiatives that help innovate or adapt to changes to the local climate. An
enabling environment that promotes and allows for experimentation and the
exploration of niche solutions is required to take advantage of new
opportunities and to confront challenges presented by climate change.
Governance
Informed decision-making, transparency, and prioritisation form indeed key

elements of adaptive capacity.
Source: ACCRA (2010). The ACCRA Adaptive Capacity Framework.

http://community.eldis.org/.5a284f21
1) What is adaptive capacity?
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2) What are the determinants of adaptive capacity?
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3) What are the indicators of adaptive capacity according to Africa Climate

Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA)?
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238
13.7 ADAPTATION PLANNING FOR Atmosphere and
Climate
RESILIENCE
Adaptation planning requires a long-term and system-wide perspective,
accounting for uncertainty about the future. The risks from climate change
arise from the interaction of socio-economic trends and climate impacts, both
of which are inherently uncertain. Adaptation measures undertaken in
isolation may lock-in vulnerability in the longer term, preclude the use of
more cost-effective options, or increase the vulnerability of neighboring
communities. Adaptation plans that do not account for uncertainty may lead
to costly mistakes when projections diverge from reality. There is a need to
package and sequence interventions in ways that account for systemic
interactions and are robust to uncertainty. The five-step process below
provides a simplified framework for how countries can use a process of
iterative risk management to support flexible adaptation planning (OECD,
2015):
• “Assess risk from climate change

• Determine acceptable levels of risk
• Develop policy responses
• Implement adaptation measures
• Monitor and evaluate”
The aim of the adaptation planning process is to ensure that climate-related

risks are identified, assessed and then reduced to an acceptable level. In
general, it becomes increasingly technically difficult and expensive to
achieve higher levels of resilience. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation and
the benefits of higher levels of resilience must be balanced. Given uncertainty
about the future, planning should favour the use of strategies that are flexible,
that deliver co benefits and avoid lock-in. A continuous process of
monitoring and evaluation can then assist with changing course in response
to new information and changing circumstances
13.8 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Adaptive capacity encompasses coping ability and strategies, policies and
measures that can expand future coping ability. Adaptive capacity is a
theoretical construct because it is not possible to know with certainty whether
a country will invest resources to expand its coping ability, how technology
and other factors will change, or what adaptations actually will be
implemented, until a perturbation or stress occurs. For example, access to
clean water and adequate sanitation is part of the coping capacity for
developed countries and some economies in transition but part of the
adaptive capacity of less developed countries. While not certain, it is hoped
that both clean water and sanitation will become part of the adaptation
baseline for all countries. Decisions about public health measures unrelated 239
Introduction to
Global Climate to climate change, such as sanitation and water treatment, may have a
Change profound influence on health consequences associated with climate change.
In fact, adaptation strategies frequently are described as risk management and
public health programmes can be characterized as reducing climate change
health risks. Improved weather warning and preparedness systems, buildings
and infrastructure, all can be considered measures to reduce human health
risks in the event of a changed frequency of weather disasters. However,
there is concern that the adaptive capacity to address changes in the
magnitude or frequency of extreme climatic conditions may not be very high
even though the adaptive capacity to gradual changes in climate may be
relatively high. Highly-managed systems, such as agriculture and water
resources in developed countries are thought to be more adaptable (assuming
resources to adapt are available) than less-managed or natural ecosystems.
Similarly, systems that have coped successfully with historical and/or
existing stresses are expected to adapt well to stresses associated with future
climate change.
Poor communities in poor countries are most vulnerable to climate change

and are already feeling its impacts, but have contributed least to the problem.
Helping them to adapt to climate change is vital, but identifying steps to take
and ensuring that this information reaches communities at risk is a major
challenge. Community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based
adaptations are tools for achieving this.
13.8.1 Community Based Adaptation

Climate change has left communities and countries vulnerable to various
kinds of hazards on an unprecedented scale. There is an urgent need to evolve
community-based approaches, mechanisms and strategies that can safeguard
the interests of communities against climate change. CBA is a bottom-up
approach that places the community at the centre of determining how to
respond to the impacts of climate change. CBA emphasizes community
participation that builds on the priorities, knowledge and capacities of local
people. These include aspects relating to the development and transfer of
technology to improve adaptive capability and the ascertainment of
community vulnerability through assessments of risks that communities face,
amongst many others. It has been reported that community-based climate
change adaptation (CBA) can be as simple as switching from one crop
variety to another, or diversifying a farmer’s livelihood. Further, CBA can
be as complex as diversifying livelihood patterns against climate risks on a
regional scale, or the incorporation of institutional reforms to create
incentives for better localized natural resource management. The
aforementioned should give the impression that CBA actions are not isolated
to the local level/ the community (Reid et al. 2009). The framework for
community-based adaptation encompasses “Climate resilient livelihoods”,
“Climate smart disaster risk reduction”, “Enhancing adaptive capacity” and
240
“Addressing the causes of poverty and vulnerability”.
13.8.2 ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION (EBA) Atmosphere and
Climate
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem
services as part of an overall adaptation strategy in order to help populations
to adapt to climate change. It aims at maintaining and improving resilience,
and at reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems and individuals in the event
of harmful climate change effects. EbA is an approach for addressing climate
change impacts, focusing on the benefits humans derive from biodiversity
and ecosystem services, and how these benefits can be utilized in the face of
climate change. EbA is an approach to sustainable development that
contributes to three outcomes: socio-economic benefits, climate change
adaptation and ecological benefits.
EbA offers a response to climate change that has multiple co-benefits for
people and biodiversity, contributing to sustainable development. These co-
benefits of EbA can contribute towards a broader set of socio-economic and
development goals, including job creation, poverty reduction and rural/peri-
urban development. In effect, EbA interventions are “participatory, inclusive,
and transparent”, and are construed to “support resilient and functional
ecosystems” immensely. Further, it is considered as knowledge and
evidence-based approach.
The risks from climate change are diverse, and the challenges and
opportunities for adaptation vary by sector and policy area. Climate change
adaptation are in dire need in the areas of infrastructure, gender, human
health, agricultural system and livelihood.
1) Explain the community-based adaptation.
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2) Explain the ecosystem-based adaptation.
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241
Introduction to
Global Climate 13.9 LET US SUM UP
Change
It is beneficial for countries to integrate long-term adaptation planning into
development planning. Such integration offers development benefits in the
short-term while reducing vulnerability in the longer term. To contribute to
sustainable development and to ensure an adequate adaptation response, it is
important to integrate adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), as well as with long-term national development plans. There are
various approaches to adaptation planning and actions, ranging from
ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA), community-based adaptation (CBA)
approaches, to risk-based approaches that countries can use individually, in
combination, or utilize elements of several approaches for a particular
situation. There are important connections between short-, medium- and
long-term adaptation planning and implementation. In short, adaptation can
become more about transformational change when considering longer-term
climate scenarios and building enhanced resilience. Mainstreaming
adaptation into long term development planning and cycles and connecting
short, medium and long-term adaptation planning will ensure effective
results. In this unit, we have discussed the characteristics and determinants of
adaptive capacity, and the adaptive strategies against climate change.
13.10 KEY WORDS

Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages,
to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Climate Change Adaptation (CCA): Adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Community-based Adaptation (CBA): Climate change adaptation activities

developed in partnership with at-risk communities, in order to promote local
awareness of, and appropriate and sustainable solutions to current and future
climatic conditions.
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): The concept and practice of reducing

disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal
factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened
vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land, water and the
environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events
Ecosystem: A system of living organisms interacting with each other and

their physical environment.
13.11 SUGGESTED FURTHER READING/

242
REFERENCES Atmosphere and
Climate
OECD (2015), National Climate Change Adaptation: Emerging Practices in
Monitoring and Evaluation, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264229679-en.
Smit, B. and Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and

vulnerability.Global Environmental Change. 16:282-292
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of

Implementing adaptation policies: Towards sustainable development. Issue

Brief (2019), Prepared by the OECD as input for the 2019 G20 Process
Cohen-Shacham E., Walters G., Janzen C. and Maginnis S. (eds.), 2016.

Nature-based Solutions to address global societal challenges. Gland,
Switzerland: IUCN. xiii + 97pp.
Various approaches to long-term adaptation planning (2019). Adaptation

Committee, United Nations Climate Change Secretariat. Platz der Vereinten
Nationen, Bonn, Germany.
IPCC (2007).Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

(eds Parry M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. &
Hanson, C. E) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Department of Environmental Affairs and South African National

Biodiversity Institute.Guidelines for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) in
South Africa.Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, South Africa,
2017.
ACDI (2019). Aronson, J., Shackleton, S., and Sikutshwa, L. Joining the
puzzle pieces: Reconceptualising ecosystem-based adaptation in South Africa
within the current natural resource management and adaptation context. Issue
Brief
IUCN French Committee (2019). Nature-based Solutions for climate change

adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Paris, France.
Reid, H., Alam, M., Berger, R., Cannon, T., Huq, S. and Milligan, A. (2009).
Community-based adaptation to climate change: An overview.
https://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/14573IIED.pdf
Web Links
https://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-glossary/a.html
https://www.shareweb.ch/site/DRR/Documents/Related%20Sectors/CBD-
EcoCCA-DRR-volontGuidelines-2018.pdf 243
Introduction to
Global Climate https://docplayer.net/amp/57708118-Master-s-thesis-natural-resources-
Change management-and-development.html
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NAPC/Country%20Documents/General/apf%2
0annexes%20a%20and%20b.pdf
https://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change/glossary
CARE Community Based Adaptation Toolkit,

http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/toolkit/CARE_CBA_Framework.pdf
CARE Community Based Adaptation Toolkit,

http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/toolkit/CARE_CBA_Toolkit.pdf 2

1) Adaptive capacity is “the property of a system to adjust its characteristics

or behaviour, in order to expand its coping range under existing climate
variability or future climate conditions”. The adaptive capacity is the
ability to design and implement effective adaptation strategies, or to react
to evolving hazards and stresses so as to reduce the likelihood of the
occurrence and/or the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from
climate-related hazards.
2) The adaptive capacity is influenced by factors namely local, socio-

economic and political factors. Principal determinants of adaptive
capacity include economic wealth, technology, information and skills,
infrastructure, institutions and equity. Others include social capital and
good governance as additional key components. The determinants for
adaptive capacity are also depicted through the availability of resources
and their distribution across the population.
3) The Local Adaptive Capacity Framework by the Africa Climate Change

Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) figure out the main determinants or
indicators of adaptive capacity as the asset base of a community,
institutions and entitlements, knowledge and information, innovation and
governance.

244
1) “Community Based Adaptation” (CBA) is a bottom-up approach that Atmosphere and
places the community at the centre of determining how to respond to the Climate
impacts of climate change. CBA emphasizes community participation

that builds on the priorities, knowledge and capacities of local people.
These include aspects relating to the development and transfer of
technology to improve adaptive capability and the ascertainment of
community vulnerability through assessments of risks that communities
face, amongst many others. The framework for community-based
adaptation encompasses “Climate resilient livelihoods”, “Climate smart
disaster risk reduction”, “Enhancing adaptive capacity” and “Addressing
the causes of poverty and vulnerability”.
2) Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is the use of biodiversity and

ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy in order to
help populations to adapt to climate change. It aims at maintaining and
improving resilience, and at reducing the vulnerability of ecosystems and
individuals in the event of harmful climate change effects. EbA is an
approach to sustainable development that contributes to three outcomes:
socio-economic benefits, climate change adaptation and ecological
benefits. In fact, EbA interventions are “participatory, inclusive, and
transparent”, and are construed to “support resilient and functional
ecosystems” immensely. Further, it is considered as knowledge and
evidence-based approach.
245
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT 14 MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Structure
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Objectives
14.3 Climate Change Mitigation
14.4 Need to Stabilize GHG Concentrations
14.5 Mitigation Strategies
14.6 Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
14.7 Energy Management
14.7.1 Need for Energy Management
14.7.2 Energy Efficiency

14.8 Alternate Energy Options
14.8.1 Bioenergy
14.8.2 Solar Energy

14.8.3 Wind Energy
14.8.4 Geothermal Energy
14.8.5 Hydroelectric Energy

14.8.6 Ocean Energy
14.8.7 Nuclear Energy

14.9 Sustainable Buildings
14.9.1 Designing Energy Efficient Buildings
14.10 Let Us Sum Up
14.11 Key Words
14.1 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations General Assembly adopted an important resolution (Res.
70) in September 2015 to set out 17 global Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) and 169 targets to underpin transformation agenda popularly known
as Post 2015 development agenda. Goal number 13 of this agenda calls upon
to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. Another
major development around the same time was the adoption of the Paris
Agreement on Climate Change, in December 2015. Both of these
developments strongly advocate for a global economy based on low-
emissions pathways.
246
The third assessment report of IPCC conclusively established the fact that Atmosphere and
human activities were the dominant reason for global warming observed Climate
during past 50 years. Report further says that human activities will continue
to change atmospheric composition during 21st century. Fossil fuel burning
will be the major contributor for such adverse consequences of human
activities. In all likely possibilities, use of coal will increase primarily
because it is cheap and available in abundance in United States, China and
India. Moreover, it can provide usable energy at a relatively more affordable
cost between $1 and $2 per MMBtu as compared to $6 to $12 per MMBtu for
oil and natural gas (MIT, 2007). We have well documented studies to
convincingly believe that there is more carbon dioxide in our atmosphere
than at any time in the past 400000 years. The levels of CO2 have exceeded
dangerous proportion of about 400 parts per million. The rate of growth of
CO2 emission has unprecedented implications for rise in global mean
temperature. Even if the carbon reduction targets set out in the 2016 Paris
Agreement can be met, global temperatures could rise above 1.5˚C by 2030
(Neil , 2019). In this unit, we would be discussing the climate change
mitigation strategies. Further, we will be discussing the alternate energy
options, carbon capture and sequestration and sustainable buildings.
14.2 OBJECTIVES
• define the climate change mitigation;

• explain carbon capture and sequestration;
• discuss the alternate energy options; and
• explain sustainable buildings.
14.3 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

The efforts made to prevent or reduce the release of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions into the atmosphere or to enhance the absorption of GHGs already
emitted, are referred as climate change mitigation. The primary aim of
mitigation efforts is to reduce the magnitude of future warming. The
measures used for climate change mitigation are mainly deployment of
renewable energies and new technologies, enhancing energy efficiency, and
improved sustainable agricultural and consumer practices (IPCC 2014; IPCC
2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014), defines
mitigation as follows:
“The effort to control the human sources of climate change and their
cumulative impacts, notably the emission of GHGs and other pollutants, such
as black carbon particles, that also affect the planet’s energy balance.
Mitigation also includes efforts to enhance the processes that remove GHGs
247
Introduction to
Global Climate from the atmosphere, known as sinks” (IPCC, 2014).
Change
Climate intervention measures consist of two major categories which are
solar radiation management (SRM) and deployment of carbon dioxide
removal (CDR) techniques (Royal Society 2009; IPCC 2018). The SRM
measures primarily focus on the efforts to temporarily reduce or offset
warming through changing the albedo. Such measures try to modify the
earth’s ability to reflect solar radiation which brings down the peak
temperature from climate change. Another set of strategies aim at reducing
the concentration of carbon dioxide or GHGs already in the atmosphere.
CDR techniques are different from climate mitigation strategies as they do
not focus on reducing the amount of carbon dioxide or GHG emissions
entering the atmosphere (mitigation).
14.4 NEED TO STABILIZE GHG

CONCENTRATIONS
CO2 is the most important GHG from the point of view of global warming.
Its major sources are burning of fossil fuels (for example coal, natural gas,
and oil), solid waste, trees, and wood products and also certain chemical
reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement or glass). Plants are the natural sink
for the CO2. The carbon dioxide injected in the atmosphere automatically
gets recycled through carbon cycle. However, it has very high residence time
in the atmosphere almost of the order of centuries. It means that its presence
in the atmosphere continues to affect the wellbeing of people for decades and
centuries. The continuous injection of CO2 in the atmosphere obviously leads
to more and more heat getting trapped in the atmosphere thereby leading to
increased global average surface temperature. The increasing concentrations
of several other GHGs (CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) are exacerbating the
problem.
Climate system has a delayed response to the stock of GHG and equilibrium
temperature grows linearly with cumulative emissions of CO2 (Bosetti et al.
2014). The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, way back in 1972 was
building up at the rate of around one part per million (ppm) per year (Sachs
2015) whereas now it is increasing steadily at about 2 ppm per year.
According to the IPCC (2014),
“Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that the temperature change caused

by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2 Degree Celsius
relative to preindustrial levels are characterized by atmospheric
concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm CO2eq (equivalent)” (IPCC, 2014).
Therefore, CO2 concentrations can be stabilized only if global emissions peak

further decline to zero in the long term. Moreover, if we want to stabilize the
CO2 concentrations at a lower value then the peak should be sooner and
lower. Further the stabilization of GHG concentrations calls for fundamental
248 changes in the global energy system relative to a baseline scenario. For
example, in order to bring CO2eq concentrations of 450 ppm in 2100, CO2 Atmosphere and
emissions from the energy supply sector should be brought down to 90% Climate
below 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070, and in many scenarios fall below
zero thereafter. Such decline is possible keeping in view of consistent energy
efficiency improvements and increasing share of low and zero carbon energy
technologies and of technologies aimed at negative emissions. It is estimated
that to preserve a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 2 degrees
Celsius, the world has a carbon budget of 3000 gigatonnes (Gt) (IPCC 2014).
However, an estimated 1,970 Gt had already been emitted before 2014
leaving the energy sector for rest of the twenty-first century a carbon budget
of just 980 Gt (IEA 2015).
1) What are the SDG targets that have explicit linkages with climate
change mitigation?
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14.5 MITIGATION STRATEGIES

One of the key responses to global warming has been to decrease the amount
of GHG emissions released into the atmosphere by enhancing sinks. One of
the major carbon sinks which you might be well familiar is the land cover of
forests. Some mitigation strategies can be as follows:
• To develop and implement programs aimed at mitigating climate change.

• To initiate mitigation actions involving policies,
• To incentivize programs for clean activities across all sectors and
involving all types of actors,
• To take initiatives and investment programs covering all sectors.
• To initiate mitigation actions such as increased use of renewable energy,
application of new technologies in areas like lighting and transportation,
and behavioral adjustments like lifestyle change.
• To conserve natural sinks through expanding forests
• To protect oceans, so that they remove more carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere (UNFCCC)
249
Introduction to
Global Climate There have been strong realizations that existing mitigation efforts fall short
Change of the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets (UNFCCC 2016; IPCC 2018).
As per the synthesis report on the aggregate effect of 161 intended nationally
determined contributions (INDCs) the impact of such NDCs is likely to lead
to a 3 degree rise in temperature. It is much higher than 2- degree target and
1.5-degree aspirational target of Paris Climate Change Agreement (UNFCC,
2016).
It has triggered an idea of “...deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s

climate system, in order to moderate global warming” (Royal Society 2009;
IPCC 2018). There are two main overarching categories of climate
intervention actions, first is Greenhouse Gas (GHG) removal and another is
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) (Royal Society 2009). Among both of
these strategies, Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) which primarily aims at
removing atmospheric carbon is the most developed form of GHG removal.
It includes ocean fertilization, ocean liming and carbon capture and storage.
On the other hand, SRM techniques aims at intercepting solar radiation
before it reaches Earth’s surface for example through injecting particles into
the stratosphere to deflect sunlight or spraying aerosols into low-lying marine
clouds to make them more reflective (Royal Society 2009). However, climate
intervention measures are complex and have raised several apprehensions
that could have negative ecological and socio-economic effects
(Encyclopedia, 2020). Moreover, the science of such climate intervention
methods remains uncertain.
14.6 CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION

(CCS)
CCS is a set of technologies that can greatly reduce carbon emissions from
new and existing coal- and gas-fired power plants and large industrial
sources. It is a three-step process which includes capture of carbon dioxide
from power plants or industrial processes, its transport (usually in pipelines)
to a site where it is injected underground for permanent storage (also known
as "sequestration") into rock formations beneath the surface. The reductions
of net CO2 emissions provide a protection strategy for power plants that
would otherwise be decommissioned or become stranded. Though a variety
of pilot projects have critically advanced our understanding of the carbon
capture technology, it is yet to be applied at large scale. There are still diverse
opinions about its usefulness. One of the major reasons is that it is an
expensive technology and therefore requires substantial cost reduction or
economic incentives to become a dependable mechanism for large-scale
future deployment of CCS. In addition to economic incentives, there is a
strong need for well-framed regulation and coherent emission reduction
policy scenarios. Moreover, there are apprehensions about long term safety
and environmental concerns. Also, there is limited evidence of the potential
consequences of a pressure buildup within a geologic formation caused by
250 CO2 storage (such as induced seismicity) and on the potential human health
impacts from CO2 that migrates out of the primary injection zone (IPCC Atmosphere and
2014). Climate
The ultimate objective of UNFCCC is to stabilize the GHG concentrations to

prevent such anthropogenic changes in climate system from reaching
dangerous levels. However, the specific level limits of such GHG have not
been conclusively agreed to. The technological options available to bring
down the carbon emissions are as follows: Reducing energy consumption
through less energy-intensive economic activities and energy efficient
processes; encouraging less carbon intensive fuels, increasing the use of
renewable energy sources or nuclear energy, sequestering CO2 by enhancing
biological absorption capacity in forests and soils and lastly capturing and
storing CO2 chemically or physically (IPCC, 2005).
Though the first four options given above are already well documented in
several other earlier IPCC reports, the fifth option i.e., carbon capture and
storage were the subject matter of third IPCC report (IPCC, 2005). It
propagated the idea that CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning should be
captured and stored away from the atmosphere for a very long period of time.
The third assessment report examined the available knowledge about
different dimensions of this option to explore whether it is viable option for
mitigating climate change.
CASE STUDY-1: CARBON ENGINEERING
Carbon capture is increasingly been recognized as an important contributor

to carbon mitigation efforts around the world. There are around 21 CCS
projects in operation or under construction around the world. Various
financial agencies and companies have started investing in this technology.
One such venture is Carbon Engineering which has been capturing
atmospheric carbon di-oxide since 2015, by constructing an end-to-end
Direct Air Capture pilot plant in Squamish, B.C., Canada. This company
was started in 2009 by a Harvard Professor David Keith, in Calgary,
Alberta. A large team of academic scientists, business leaders, and strategic
investors was involved and the main aim was to develop and commercialize
technology that captures climate-relevant quantities of CO2 from the air. In
collaboration with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, LLC (OLCV), a subsidiary
of Occidental, this company is now working on the world’s largest direct air
capture plant that is one million tons of CO2 directly from the atmosphere
each year. The captured carbon di-oxide will be permanently stored
underground. The carbon di-oxide will be utilized in OLCV’s enhanced oil
recovery operations. In 2021, CE is expected to start the construction of its
first large-scale commercial plants. This project will be deployed in
partnership with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures and will be built in the Permian
Basin, U.S. Carbon Engineering is also progressing the opportunities to
further Direct air capture plants in different markets around the world. In
2017, CE incorporated fuel synthesis capability into Direct air capture pilot
251
Introduction to
Global Climate plant of Squamish, making the world’s first Air to Fuel pilot based on
Change industrially scalable technologies.
Source: https://carbonengineering.com/our-story/
CASE STUDY-2: THE CARBFIX METHOD
Though carbon capture can be a vital option for any carbon reduction plan,
there are several unanswered questions in this regard. For example, an
important issue is what to do with the captured stuff. A possible solution is
to bury the captured carbon dioxide, for example Reykjavik Energy’s
CarbFix Project in Iceland, since 2012, has been injecting carbon dioxide in
water deep underground. The Carbfix method is considered to be an
economical and environmentally friendly way to permanently immobilize
carbon. It involves the process of dissolving CO2 in water under pressure
and then pumping it to a depth of 500-800 meters into basalt strata where it
gets permanently mineralized. Reykjavik Energy (RE), since 2007
developed this method in collaboration with the University of Iceland and
several other research institutions. Efforts have also been made to recycle
captured carbon dioxide back into usable fuels such as ethanol under
laboratory conditions, though it is yet to be commercialized.
14.7 ENERGY MANAGEMENT

Industrial development and population growth led to increased demand for
energy during 1850-1970 primarily due to enormous increase in world
population (~3.2 times), per capita use of industrial energy (~twenty-fold)
and total world use of industrial and traditional energy (~ twelve-fold). This
demand was predominantly met through biomass-based energy systems
initially and gradually developed a heavy reliance on coal and gas. However,
consumption of such non-renewable sources started generating high
concentration of harmful gases in the atmosphere leading to serious
repercussions like ozone depletion, higher levels of Greenhouse Gases
(GHGs) and consequently the increasing global warming. The maximum
contribution to GHG emissions comes from energy sector which roughly
constitutes two third of all the anthropogenic GHG. The increasing
dependence on fossil fuels is primarily driven by the electrification of the
energy system (IPCC 2014). Therefore, electricity generation is the major
sector which is responsible for emission of fossil fuel CO2.
For a sustained economic growth, we need efficient, reliable and

competitively priced energy supplies. This is the reason why efficient use and
long-term sustainability of energy resources is at the core of energy
management particularly in developing countries where the access to clean
252 and reliable sources of energy is still a major challenge. There is a need to
carefully plan the mitigation strategies both in the energy supply sector and Atmosphere and
energy demand sector. Energy supply sector includes all those processes that Climate
deliver final energy to the end-use sectors. However, the technological

advancements have given rise to several mitigation options. Several
possibilities exist in energy supply and demands sectors to mitigate the
climate change, for example use of renewable and nuclear energy sources
increased efficiency, fuel switching (e.g., from coal to gas), Carbon Capture
and Sequestration (CCS), and energy efficiency at household or business
level, or in transport.
14.7.1 Need for Energy Management

The fossil fuels have a limited stock in our environment. However, they are
being consumed at very high rate. About 85 % of the primary energy at
present comes from fossil fuels. Once they are completely consumed, we will
not have such fuels available any more for future generations. Further we
know that a significant amount of energy gets wasted in our country. There
is a dire need to judiciously utilize energy resources and prevent energy death
for our coming generation. For this purpose, we should have a proper
understanding of how long such resources might be available and how they
can be made to last longer. In this context the energy conservation and its
management become an important issue of concern for all of us. How we
produce and consume energy resources is a major issue of concern. In this
regard the overall efficiency of energy production needs to take very
seriously. Unfortunately, the overall energy efficiency is extremely low.
Fig. 14.1: Primary direct energy consumption by source, World 253

Introduction to
Global Climate 14.7.2 Energy Efficiency
Change
Energy efficiency signifies using less energy for carrying out the same tasks.
The energy efficiency carries significance because reduced energy
consumption can bring down greenhouse gas emission. The concept of
energy efficiency applies in several different areas for example designing of
buildings, using smart meters or designing household appliances. As you
know that compact fluorescent bulb uses less electricity than conventional
electric bulb. Similarly internal temperature, illumination, landscaping etc.
can be regulated through design considerations of the buildings to minimize
energy consumption. Smart meters help to keep track of the usage of energy
in the buildings to develop systems for making buildings more energy
efficient. Such energy efficient design considerations in appliances, buildings
etc. will help to consume lesser and lesser electricity and thus effectively
contribute for climate change mitigation efforts. Here you need to understand
the difference between energy conservation and energy efficiency. Though
both of them have similar goal to reduce energy consumption, they are
conceptually not the same. When we are talking about energy conservation,
we are concerned about cutting back activities which consume energies, for
example by switching off lights, driving less frequently, using appliances less
etc. However, energy efficiency deals with our concern to harness technology
to reduce energy wastage. Though development of such energy efficient
devices or systems often cost intensive but the invested capital will pay back
in long term through reduced energy consumption. Thus, improvement in
energy efficiency is important in several ways. It is good for country’s
economy which would otherwise burden with energy import requirements,
for people’s domestic budget and most importantly for climate change
mitigation besides the several indirect benefits like reduction in air and water
pollution caused by unclean energy sources. Though renewable energy
options can also help to address such issues, improvement in energy
efficiency is the cheapest and most immediate way to reduce the carbon
emissions.
1) Differentiate between primary and secondary energy resources.
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254 ……………………………………………………………………………
2) Differentiate between renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Atmosphere and
Climate
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3) Differentiate between commercial and non-commercial energy resources.
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14.8 ALTERNATE ENERGY OPTIONS

Due to the environmental problems created by the extensive use of fossil
fuels, alternative sources of energy are being sought across the world. The
ideal energy sources are the ones which last forever and do not pollute the
environment. The energy sources derived from sun, wind, water, agricultural
residues, fuel wood, and animal dung are inexhaustible and therefore
popularly known as renewable sources. They are non-polluting and are
available locally which is why they are viable sources of clean and limitless
energy.
Among all the climate mitigation options, Renewable Energy (RE) is one of
the most important options. The technologies powered by RE sources are
much clean than those powered by fossil fuel-based resources. It is primarily
because of the fact that lifecycle GHG emissions normalized per unit of
electrical output (g CO2eq/kWh) in such technologies is less (IPCC 2012).
Despite their low life cycle GHG emissions, the long-term contribution for
climate change mitigation in respect of few RE sources is limited. For
example, for bioenergy, the available technical potential is limited, if we seek
deep reductions in GHG emissions. However solar and wind energy, despite
their seemingly higher technical potential for solar and wind energy, face
obvious constraints due to changing weather patterns. The deployment of RE
technologies is a complex matter which inter alia needs to take in to account
environmental concerns, public acceptance, and investment in infrastructure.
14.8.1 Bioenergy
The energy produced from natural biological sources (e.g., plants, animals
and their byproducts) is called bio-energy. It can be used in various forms
like liquid form (e.g., biofuel), gaseous form (e.g., biogas) or solid form (e.g., 255
Introduction to
Global Climate burning wood for energy). Forests, agricultural fields and wastes are the
Change prominent sources for the production of bioenergy. The raw materials derived
from these sources can be converted in to bioenergy through chemical,
thermal and biochemical methods. Under chemical processing biofuel is
developed through chemical processes. In thermal conversion heat is used
through combustion or gasification. In biochemical conversion processes,
bacteria or other organisms are utilized to compost or ferment the source to
convert it in to energy.
The energy retrieved from sources like plants is basically the solar energy
stored in them through photosynthesis. Therefore, this source of energy can
be replenished. The bioenergy can therefore be treated as inexhaustible
source of energy. As the biomass is obtained from the farms, forests and
other ecosystems, it has several positive and negative environmental and
social impacts. Though it uses almost similar amount of carbon dioxide, as
fossil fuels, we can minimize the adverse impact of such emissions by way of
replacement of used resources by fast growing trees and plants (bioenergy
feedstocks). However, through advanced technologies, bioenergy can reduce
GHG emissions. Bioenergy can be generated locally at several levels for
example individuals using compost heaps out of kitchen scraps or large-scale
corporations using huge farms. Bioenergy has promising role to minimize
GHGs and fulfill the energy needs of people beyond the reach of grid-based
energy infrastructure. However, this form of energy generation is not yet
fully ready to replace fossil fuels. It is too costly and utilize so many
resources like large plots of land, water requirements etc., which make it
unreasonable sometimes.
14.8.2 Solar Energy

As far as electricity generation is concerned, the solar energy technologies
can be divided into two considerably different categories i.e., solar
photovoltaic (PV) which transform sunlight in to electricity directly and
concentrated solar power (CSP) which does it through the production of
steam and the use of turbines and generators. These two technologies have
another difference in that with CSP the storage is possible where as in case of
PV, the storage is difficult and most expensive. The energy is abundantly
available from the sun though it undergoes changes during night time or
cloudy or rainy days. This is the reason why PV solar power systems need a
backup system to maintain continuity in the energy supply. However, CSP
technology requires much larger area and therefore suits the requirements in
certain geographical areas and long days of direct sunlight. On the other
hand, PV systems are scalable and therefore adaptable to different conditions.
Though existing supply of solar energy is a small fraction of global energy
supply, it has highest potential among all energy sources. As the
technological advancements and cost reductions are continuously going on,
we can hope to see a dramatic deployment of solar based technologies in near
256
future.
14.8.3 Wind Energy Atmosphere and
Climate
Wind energy is basically a kind of solar energy. It is created due to uneven
warming of earth’s atmosphere, differences in landscape and revolution of
earth. Wind induced mechanical power is transmitted to generators which
produce electricity. Wind energy is second fastest growing source of
electricity in the world after solar energy, both of which are hygienic and
cheapest option in many countries. China, USA and Germany are the
prominent user countries of wind energy. However potential of wind energy
generation depends upon region and season. Wind energy has a significant
potential to address near term (2020) and long term (2030 to 2050) GHG
emission reduction. The global wind energy capacity in 2017 had reached
about 23 % of the global RE capacity largely from onshore wind applications
(IRENA, 2018). Though there are range of wind energy technologies
presently available in the market, there are environmental and social
acceptability issues which restrict its possible use. Moreover, wind power
cannot work when wind is not blowing and therefore cannot completely
replace conventional sources. However, we can still rely on wind energies
because they can put the polluting and inflexible power plants offline while
they are in use and thus bring down GHG emissions.
14.8.4 Geothermal Energy

The heat (thermal) energy extracted from the interior of earth (geo) is known
as geothermal energy. It resides within earth’s interior in rocks, steam, or
liquid water (filled in the fractures and pores within the rock). Geothermal
energy is considered to be useful to generate utility scale electricity. In order
to carry out this process deep wells are drilled to tap vapor and hot water
from underground reservoirs. The steam is used to drive turbines to generate
electricity.
Geothermal energy can also be used to heat and cool buildings. In many
areas, during colder months the underground temperature remains constant
(about 50–60°F) which is much warmer than the outside air. For the purpose
of heating and cooling buildings, earth’s surface is used as temperature
exchange medium. It is achieved through geothermal (or ground-source) heat
pumps.The heat can be absorbed through, water or another fluid running
through pipes buried 10–300 feet underground or underwater. Subsequently
deposited heat is passed through air ducts in the building. The cooling
process is just the opposite. As opposed to fossil fuels geothermal energy
does not discharge the GHGs. Moreover, the marginal cost of the fuel is low
as the only cost involved in this process is the initial cost of set up. Keeping
in view of its technical potential and likely deployment, it can meet about 3%
of global demand for electricity by 2050. As on 2017, the capacity of
geothermal energy is only 12,894 MW (IRENA 2018).
257
Introduction to
Global Climate 14.8.5 Hydroelectric Energy
Change
The hydroelectric power is a mature technology though already over
exploited in many regions. Hydropower is renewable because water is
naturally replenished through the water cycle. Moreover, it is clean energy
alternative because it does not add to the GHG emissions. Hydropower has
the largest share of the global RE capacity though expected to decrease by
2050 (IRENA 2018). However, it continues to remain an attractive source
keeping in view of global carbon mitigation scenarios. Hydroelectric projects
are vulnerable to climate change effects primarily because of shifts in rainfall
patterns.
14.8.6 Ocean Energy

The source of ocean energy is the kinetic, thermal, and chemical energy of
seawater. This energy can be converted in to electricity and thermal energy.
The oceans cover about 70% of earth’s surface which make it the biggest
collector of solar energy. The oceanic surfaces are warmed a lot more than
deep oceanic water which creates thermal energy. Different kinds of
technologies are used to convert different possible sources of ocean energy
(e.g., waves, ocean currents, and tides). However, ocean energy’s
contribution for climate change mitigation is very less which is evident from
the fact that -as on 2017- global capacity for ocean energy was just 529 MW
(IRENA 2018). A better utilization of ocean resources will require
improvement in various technologies and making it commercially viable at
attractive rates.
14.8.7 Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy is a matured technology which represented 11 % of the
world’s energy generation in 2012 with a total generation of 2346 TWh
(IAEA 2013). It has low carbon emissions which is below 100 g CO2eq per
kWh on a lifecycle basis. Though globally it is utilized in 30 countries for
electricity generation, a variety of safety concerns and nuclear waste
management related issues have restricted its social acceptability. The
nuclear accidents in 1986 at Chernobyl Ukraine and in 2011 at Fukushima
Japan have created further apprehensions for safe utilization of nuclear
energy. Since 1993 nuclear energy share of global electricity generation has
been declining (IPCC 2014).
14.9 SUSTAINABLE BUILDINGS

The modern buildings require energies for a variety of purposes for example
lighting, heating and cooling which is primarily met by commercial sources
of energy. A significant part of the commercial energy is consumed by the
buildings if it is not scientifically designed from the point of view of energy
consumption. Such energy consumption takes place at several steps for
258 example materials used in construction, developing comfortable living
conditions inside the constructed building etc. As a result of fast expansion in Atmosphere and
construction sector, the requirement for energy consumption in this sector is Climate
increasing at a rapid pace. Keeping in view of the huge gaps in demand and
supply of the commercial energy, there is a need to suitably design buildings.
The architects, engineers, interior designers and other building design
professionals have to play a significant role in this regard. The consumption
of commercial energy can be significantly reduced by employing solar
features in the building which are commonly called solar passive buildings or
energy-conscious buildings. Energy savings result primarily due to reduction
in energy used for thermal comfort conditioning and lighting when the
building begins operation. On the other hand, solar active buildings use
mechanical devices like pumps and fans etc., to distribute sun’s captured
energy amongst the areas of living spaces. The reduced consumption of
commercial energy resources leads to reduction of greenhouse gases.
14.9.1 Designing Energy Efficient Buildings

Designing of energy efficient buildings requires several factors to be taken in
to consideration. Some of these factors are size, shape, orientation, special
arrangements, materials and many other factors that affect energy use with
the building. The design of the building should be climate responsive to make
them energy efficient and to reduce their energy consumption. Efforts should
be made to integrate the buildings with renewable energy devices to generate
energy at the site of building which will further reduce consumption of
conventional energy sources. The building interacts with its environment
through its walls, windows, roof, door and floor etc., which forms the
building envelope. The energy efficiency of the building will obviously
depend upon how well building envelop has been designed keeping in view
of elements of climatic conditions such as solar radiation, ambient
temperature, wind direction, level of humidity. For instance, we need to
prevent heat gain and promote heat losses while constructing buildings in
climatic zones represented as hot and dry, warm and humid, and moderate.
However, in cold climatic zones, we need to promote heat gain and reduce
the heat losses. Moreover, the site conditions (e.g., availability of trees, water
bodies etc.), orientation of the building (which decides solar energy it
receives during winters and summers) and proper building configuration also
play a significant role in building’s performance. The Government of India is
promoting the solar buildings. The concept of such building is very close to
architecture of heritage buildings viz. Red Fort of Delhi, forts and havelis in
Jaipur, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur. Such architecture works in harmony of nature.
The design of solar buildings helps to save money in long term through
energy reduction though it may cost a little higher initially.
259
Introduction to
Change
1) What are the advantages and disadvantages of Solar Passive Housing?
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14.10 LET US SUM UP

Keeping in view of the targets of Paris Agreement on climate change we can
no longer emit any further carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Therefore,
reducing emissions of GHGs is one of the major challenges of our times.
Though there are several sources of anthropogenic GHGs, the energy sector
represents about two-thirds of such emissions. Within energy sector,
electricity generation is the major contributor of CO2. It is due to this reason
that we expect this sector to play a major role in mitigation scenarios. It calls
for, fostering renewable energies and new technologies, making older
systems more energy efficient and changing management practices and
consumer behavior.
We need to explore innovative ways to remove significant CO2 from the

atmosphere. In addition to biological options (e.g., afforestation and
bioenergy with CO2 capture) direct carbon capture and sequestration (DACC)
has emerged as a promising possibility though it is yet to gain sufficient
ground. Under the existing circumstances no credible emission scenario
appears to emerge under which global mean temperatures can peak and then
decline by 2100.
14.11 KEY WORDS

Mitigation: A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks
of greenhouse gases.
Solar Radiation Management (SRM): Solar Radiation Management refers

to the intentional modification of the Earth’s shortwave radiative budget with
the aim to reduce climate change according to a given metric (e.g., surface
temperature, precipitation, regional impacts, etc.).
260
14.12 SUGGESTED FURTHER Atmosphere and
Climate
READING/REFERENCES
IPCC (2005) Bert Metz, Ogunlade Davidson, Heleen de Coninck, Manuela
Loos and Leo Meyer (Eds.) Carbon dioxide capture and storage, Cambridge
University Press, UK. pp 431. Available from Cambridge University Press,
The Edinburgh Building Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU
ENGLAND https://www.ipcc.ch/report/carbon-dioxide-capture-and-storage/
(accessed on 31st July 2020)
IPCC (2012) Special report of the IPCC on renewable energy sources and
climate change mitigation.Prepared by working group III of the
intergovernmental panel on climate change. Edenhofer O, Pichs-MadrugaR,
Sokona Y, Seyboth K, Matschoss P, Kadner S, Zwickel T, Eickemeier P,
Hansen G, Schlömer S, von Stechow C (eds). Cambridge University Press,
New York. ISBN:978-1-107-02340-6
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change.

Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the
intergovernmental panel on climate change. Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R,
Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S,
Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C,
Zwickel T, Minx JC (eds). Cambridge University Press, New York.
ISBN:978-1-107-05821-7
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working

groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Geneva, ISBN 978-92-9169-143-2
IPCC (2018) Summary for policymakers. In: Global warming of 1.5 Degree
Centigrade. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5
Degree Centigrade above preindustrial levels and related global greenhouse
gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to
the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
IRENA (2018) Renewable capacity statistics 2018. IRENA, Abu Dhabi.

ISBN:978-92-9260-057-0
MIT (2007) The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained

World, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.http:// 261
Introduction to
Global Climate web.mit.edu/coal/The_Future_of_Coal.pdf (accessed on 1st August 2020)
Change
Neil Yeoh (2019), Successful carbon removal depends on these 3 conditions,
World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/climate-
change-carbon-capture-conditions/ (accessed on 31st July 2020)
Royal Society (2009) Geoengineering the climate.Science, governance and

uncertainty. The Royal Society, London, https://royalsociety.org/-
/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf
UNFCCC (1992) United Nations framework convention on climate change.

United Nations, New York
UNFCCC (2016) Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined

contributions: an update. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), Bonn, https://unfccc.int/ resource/ docs/2016/
cop22/eng/02.pdf (Accessed on 2nd August 2020)
UNFCCC (2016) Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined

contributions: an update. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), Bonn
UNFCCC (2018) Yearbook of global climate action 2018. United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); Marrakech
Partnership, Bonn

1) The interconnections between climate change mitigation and some of the

sustainable development goals are evident. The following table describes
some of those targets which are explicitly connected.
Sustainable Development Goal Target which is explicitly interlinked

to climate change mitigation
No Poverty SDG1.5
No Hunger SDG2.4
Clean water and sanitation SDG6.4
SDG6.6
Affordable and clean energy SDG7.1
SDG7.2
SDG7.3
Build resilient infrastructure, SDG9.4
promote inclusive and sustainable
industrialization and foster
262 innovation
Sustainable cities and SDG11.B Atmosphere and
Climate
communities
Responsible production and SDG12.2
consumption SDG12.4
Climate action SDG13.2
SDG13.3
SDG13A
1) The primary sources of energy are found in nature and they are then
converted in to secondary sources through industrial operations. For
example, coal, oil and gas are primary sources whereas steam and
electricity are secondary sources of energy.
2) The resources like coal, oil and gas have limited stock on the earth. They
get continuously depleted as it is not possible to recoup their stock within
a reasonable period of time. These kinds of resources are called fossil
fuels because they are found underground where they are formed over
millions of years. Hence such resources have limited supplies and are
practically non-renewable. However hydro energy, wind energy, biomass
energy, solar energy, tidal and geo-thermal energy are dependent on sun
and will continue to last till sun exists. This is the reason why we call
them renewable, nonconventional or alternative energy sources.
3) Commercial energy resources are available in the market for a specific

price for example coal, oil, natural gas, electricity and refined petroleum
products. However, non-commercial energy resources are not bought or
sold at any specific prices in markets for example, cattle dung,
agricultural wastes, solar energy, animal power for transport.
1) Advantages of Solar Passive Systems
Solar passive systems are highly energy efficient as a result of which the
energy requirements for lighting, winter heating, and summer cooling are
reduced substantially. Since such systems have very little dependence on
conventional sources of energy, it helps to save on expenditures and
consumption of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). Further such systems reduce
the emission of greenhouse gases.
Disadvantages of Solar Passive Systems
The solar passive systems costs little more than conventional building design
therefore initial cost is on higher side. Moreover, the design of such buildings
has to be carefully planned and any mistake, for example in the choice of
building materials or window glass, may give adverse results.
263
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT 15 EDUCATION AND CAPACITY
BUILDING
Structure
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Objectives
15.3 Emerging International Concerns
15.4 Emerging Perceptions for Climate Education
15.5 Need for Curriculum Changes
15.6 Flexibility and Innovations: Hallmarks of Climate Change Education
15.7 Capacity Building: International Concerns
15.7.1 Capacity Building in the context of UNFCCC
15.7.2 International Cooperation
15.7.3 Towards a New Paradigm of Capacity Building
15.7.4 Paris Agreement and Capacity Building

15.8 Case Studies
15.9 Let Us Sum Up
15.10 Key Words
15.1 INTRODUCTION
Climate change has thrown up several developmental challenges for
mitigation and adaptation measures, both in developing and developed
countries. There is a need to effectively deal with climate change induced
loss and damage; to put in place credible monitoring mechanisms; to adopt
new technologies and methods; and raise awareness on climate change etc.
(ECBI, 2017). There is a widespread realization that response strategies for
climate change will require a central role of education. Education helps
people understand and address the impact of global warming, encourage
change in their attitudes and behavior and help them adapt to climate change-
related trends (UNESCO, n.d.). The education and capacity building has also
attracted the attention of policy makers, environmental activists, multilateral
organizations and stimulated diplomatic activities across the world. Ever
since United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
came in to existence in 1992, several international declarations have
emphasized on the importance of education and capacity building to
effectively deal with climate change.
However, climate change has differential impact on different countries.

264 Developing countries have been disproportionately affected, primarily due to
poor human, technical, institutional and financial capacity to deal with such Atmosphere and
challenges. The impact has been manifested at various social, economic and Climate
environmental fronts which have thwarted the hard-earned developmental

gains of these countries. A large segment of population which had come out
of poverty trap in these countries has a risk of slipping back in to poverty due
to climatic change. It impinges on already constrained financial resources of
such countries to ensure food, water and energy security, and livelihoods and
health. Various stakeholders therefore need additional capacity, not only to
deal with the additional challenges of climate change, but also to enhance
development efforts and safeguard development gains (ECBI, 2017). Despite
the wide-ranging multilateral and bilateral efforts, the impact in developing
world is limited. Many developing countries still face capacity challenges
which jeopardize their ability to effectively or fully carry out the desired
climate action. The major challenges reported by the studies are as follows:
(Dagnet, Northrop and Tirpak, 2015):
• A lack of public awareness and support for climate action within

countries;
• Fragmentation of information, experts and research institutions and lack
of training in assessment approaches and methodologies;
• Lack of international support directed at building and retaining long-term
organizational and institutional capacity; and
• A need to establish or strengthen permanent institutional arrangements
and enabling environments fit for meeting national climate change goals.
A strong and effective global cooperation will be critical to bring about these
capacities at various levels in these countries particularly the least developed
countries. As a student of Environmental Sciences, you should have a clear
understanding of the overall perspective within which such global response
for education and capacity building is coming up. This unit will make you
understand the vital role of education, its current status and the changes
required in educational systems. You will also learn the conceptual difference
between education and capacity building; the chronological sequence of
concerns shown by some major international declarations; problems being
faced by developing countries and the major initiatives for climate change
capacity building across the world.
15.2 OBJECTIVES
• define capacity building;

• discuss climate change education; and
• discuss the International concerns for capacity building and climate
change education.
265
Introduction to
Global Climate 15.3 EMERGING INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS
Change
Several agencies across the world are working for climate education in their
own ways and in accordance with their mandates. However, UNESCO has
been playing a vital and pioneering role. UNESCO implements climate
change education as part of its program on ‘Education for Sustainable
Development’. As defined by UNESCO, ‘Education for Sustainable
Development’ should entail knowledge, skill, attitudes and values that would
enable an individual to work towards building a sustainable future. Climate
Change Education for Sustainable Development (CCESD) “has a central
role to play in helping the general public and especially the next generations
understand and relate to the issues, make lifestyle changes to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, and adapt to the changing local conditions”
(UNESCO 2010a).
The concerns for education or capacity building have been consistently

shown in several international agreements starting from United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in 1992. A
chronological sequence of some prominent declarations is given in Table
15.1.
Table 15.1
Concerns shown for Capacity Building in international declarations in

connection with Climate Change: A Chronological Sequence
Declaration/Agency The Concern for Capacity Building

1992 Article 6 of the Convention is
UN Framework Convention on dedicated to promoting education,
Climate Change (UNFCCC) public awareness, public access to
climate change information, public
participation in addressing climate
change, and training of scientific,
Reference: technical and managerial personnel.
https://unfccc.int/files/essential_ba
In addition to the formal processes
ckground/background_publications
under the UNFCCC, there are about
_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.
13 thematic and financial entities
pdf
involved in capacity building
1997 Article 10 of the Kyoto Protocol

Kyoto Protocol provides for strengthening of research
capacity, education and training of
personnel and institutional
Reference:
strengthening in developing countries.
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/con
vkp/kpeng.pdf
266
2001 Marrakech Accords include two Atmosphere and
Climate
Marrakech Accords frameworks providing a set of guiding
principles and approaches to capacity
The Seventh Conference of Parties
building – one in developing
(COP7) to UNFCC
countries, and the other in countries
Reference:https://unfccc.int/proces
with economies in transition (EITs).
s-and-meetings/conferences/past-
conferences/marrakech-climate-
change-conference-october-
2001/cop-7
2012-2017 To further enhance the monitoring and
Durban Forum on Capacity review of the effectiveness on capacity
Building building efforts. The Forum is open to
Parties, UN organizations,
intergovernmental and non-
Reference:https://unfccc.int/topics/
governmental organizations, research,
capacity-
academia and the private sector. Six
building/workstreams/durban-
meetings have taken place between
forum/background-on-the-durban-
2012-2017
forum
2009 It includes climate change education
Climate Change Initiative of as one of its four thematic areas to
UNESCO strengthen its Member States and calls
for capacities to deliver Climate
Change Education for Sustainable
(During the 15th COP of the
Development (CCESD) at the primary
UNFCCC)
and second levels, to encourage and
enhance innovative approaches to
Reference: CCESD in schools and to raise climate
http://www.unesco.org/new/filead change awareness through non-formal
min/MULTIMEDIA/HQ/SC/pdf/sc education
_climChange_initiative_EN.pdf
1. It deals with capacity building
2015 under Article 11. The five paragraphs
of this Article lay down the goals,
guiding principles, and procedural
Paris Agreement
obligations of all Parties to the
agreement with regard to capacity
Reference: building.
https://unfccc.int/files/essential_ba
ckground/convention/application/p 2. Paragraph 71, establishes the
df/english_paris_agreement.pdf “Paris Committee on Capacity
Building” (PCCB) to address capacity
gaps and needs, both current and
emerging, and enhance capacity
267
Introduction to
Global Climate building efforts.
Change
3. Paragraph 73 of the adopting
decision launches a work plan on
capacity building for the period
2016-2020
2015 1. SDG-13.3 points out the necessity
Sustainable Development Goals to:
(SDG) “Improve education, awareness-
raising and human and institutional
capacity on climate changes
Objective 13 of Sustainable
mitigation, adaptation, impact
Development Goals
reduction and early warning”
Reference:https://www.undp.org/c
2. SDG- 13.2 which stresses the
ontent/undp/en/home/sustainable-
necessity to “Integrate climate
development-goals/goal-13-
change measures into national
climate-action.html
policies, strategies and planning,”
(Source:Compiled from ECBI, 2017)
UNFCCC called upon the countries to initiate educational interventions for

climate change. Though most of these countries have committed to climate
change education, concrete action needs to be taken for setting targets and
advancing action on climate education. Most of such initiatives are taken as
stray initiatives which lack an integrated perspective on for climate change
capacity building. It has also been observed that the countries are also slow to
address climate change education in preparing their Nationally Determined
Contributions under Paris Agreement and therefore need technical support
(UNESCO, 2019).
A study conducted by UNESCO has revealed that most of the initiatives in

different countries under UNFCCC are related to public awareness and
integration of climate knowledge in to classrooms (UNESCO, 2019). It is not
sufficient because just the knowledge about climate change may not translate
in to required behavioral and attitudinal changes. Furthermore, countries tend
to report more on ‘Environmental Education’ than the ‘Education for
Sustainable Development’.
15.4 EMERGING PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE

EDUCATION
The education for climate change is required by diverse stakeholders with
varying levels of vulnerabilities, livelihoods commitments, prior learning
levels and value systems. Educating such target groups cannot be carried out
through structured academic programs of educational institutions. Climate
change education is all about building capacities and generating knowledge
for context-based solutions. It’s a challenge for educational institutions to
268
fulfill this mandate. Innovation and flexibility will be the hall marks of such Atmosphere and
climate education initiatives (Pandey and Kumar, 2018). Several out of box Climate
initiatives have been taken across the world which will be described later in
this unit. However, in order to understand the intricacies of climate education
you should understand the following few points which will make you
understand why climate education cannot be addressed through Business-as-
usual approach. Following few points of views make climate education a
specialized area of study.
• A shift in perceptions
We are passing through an unprecedented shift in the way developed

countries used to look at developing countries. The poor capacities of the
developing countries to handle climate change are a major source of worry
for developed countries also. Nowhere in human history, was it so deeply
realized that prosperity of developed nations is not sustainable without the
well-developed capacity building infrastructure in developing countries. This
is an unprecedented trend in the field of climate education. Most of the
challenges which human civilization faces today have to be addressed
collectively. Further, there is an increasing realization to advance a climate
justice perspective – in order that climate inequities and inequalities are
acknowledged and can be advocated for. For example, least responsible for
causing climate change and having the least financial, human, and other
resources to address it are most vulnerable to its devastating impacts.
Therefore, developed countries now feel accountable to build up capacities in
developing countries.
• Vulnerability of Target Groups
The role of climate education is especially important in the countries where

the communities are highly vulnerable. Climate change will make them more
vulnerable thereby jeopardizing the hard-earned developmental gains of past
several decades. The target groups for climate education are mostly
dependent upon climate sensitive livelihoods, have subsistence levels of
living and disconnected from urban centered educational infrastructure.
Educational system has the responsibility to enhance coping capacities of
such vulnerable communities and build up required capacities of policy
makers, scientists, archeologists, urban planners, engineers etc.
However, this task is challenging especially in developing countries where

the target groups to be addressed are vulnerable, poorly capacitated to adopt
new practices, depend on highly climate sensitive livelihoods and largely live
in remote and rural areas. The conventional ways of capacity building, fail to
serve the educational requirements of such target groups. During the past few
years Indian Universities have launched several initiatives for Curriculum
Development, Program Delivery and Community Outreach Programs to
address the issues of sustainability. Though perhaps, India has been the only
country where the highest court has mandated environmental education at all
269
Introduction to
Global Climate the formal levels of education including a compulsory undergraduate course
Change there have been significant gaps. Such gaps between policy and practice have
been primarily due to non-availability of interdisciplinary competence among
teachers and staff and use of traditional methods (Banga, 2010). Open and
Distance Learning systems are ideally positioned to address these issues
primarily because of their flexible and innovative ways of functioning.
• Environmental Implications of Universalization of Education
There is an increasing realization across the world that we need to develop

carbon neutral educational systems to play a meaningful role of education for
climate change. Global commitments made under SDG-4 will require huge
expansion of our educational systems. Though the world has already
achieved targets very close to universalization of primary education, we find
that a lot has to be done to achieve universality in lower and upper secondary
education. The targets to be achieved for tertiary education are still more
difficult. The existing rates for tertiary education are only 38% which shows
the scale of expansion needed for such universalization of higher education.
Carbon foot prints of educational activities are increasingly becoming a cause

of concern. The carbon foot print for expansion of such a scale will be huge.
It will have implication for the climate change. To cite an example, in China,
approximately 40% of the energy consumption in the public sector comes
from higher education alone. Keeping in view of this data our expansion of
educational activities will enhance our energy consumption while we try to
move from the current global enrolment rate of 38% to 100%. In addition, the
globalization of education, specifically in the domain of higher education has
given rise to students’ mobility. It is also contributing for carbon emissions.
The contribution for carbon emission on account of student mobility is
estimated to be around 14 megatons of CO2 per year which is likely to
increase as campus-based learning is the dominant mode (Kanwar and Carr,
2019).
• Emerging realization for Carbon Neutral Education
Concept of Carbon Neutral Education (CNE) has emerged primarily due to

the concerns for climate change. Educational Institutions’ role for carbon
neutrality is coming up in two ways. Educational Institutions are increasingly
becoming cautious about GHG emissions due to their activities (Baumber et
al,2019). Institutions are gradually adopting low carbon practices and trying
to ensure provision of educational services in a manner that there will be no
net increase of greenhouse gas concentration in atmosphere. They are
gradually moving towards low carbon practices (e.g., carbon reduction,
carbon offsetting etc.) and thereby trying to become carbon neutral
institutions. Secondly these institutions are adopting appropriate curricula,
pedagogical approaches and sustainable actions via teaching and research to
educate their students about carbon neutrality.
270 • Vulnerabilities of Educational Infrastructure
Climate change and its associated impacts can disrupt the normal functioning Atmosphere and
of education systems as floods or storms, for instance, can destroy Climate
educational institutions or cause disruptions to school terms or years. It can

drastically impact the developing countries where educational systems are
already in poor shape. However, the educational systems and climate change
have complex interdependence. A weak educational system cannot
effectively deal with climate changes and poorly managed climate change
will further put educational infrastructure in to risk (COL). Though a well-
developed educational system is vital to address the issues of climate change,
it also negatively and disproportionately gets affected by such changes. On
the other hand, climate change also has major, detrimental impacts on
educational systems. Entire schools can be destroyed or irreparably damaged,
leading to thousands of displaced students, unable to continue their
education. Critical data and student records may be wiped out entirely,
leading to the collapse of entire systems (Kanwar and Carr, 2019). According
to UNICEF, more than 3000 classrooms and over 330,000 students were
affected when Cyclone Idai, hit eastern Mozambique. Hurricane Dorian
destroyed 90% of the infrastructure in the Bahamas. The week after
Hurricane Dorian hit was to be the first week of school and many families
had paid school fees and purchased uniforms, which were lost and many
schools were deemed to be unsafe for students (COL). Hence the role of
educational systems within the overall context of climate change is multi-
dimensional. This unit will give you a perspective to understand the critical
interdependence between the two.
15.5 NEED FOR CURRICULUM CHANGES

Climate change involves deep complexities, interconnectedness across
disciplinary boundaries and impacts beyond political and geographical
boundaries. Its predictions for future still bear different levels of
uncertainties. Even today several people doubt whether climate change really
exists. Research literature refers climate change as a wicked problem and
often a super wicked problem. Such a scenario makes climate change
education a challenging task and calls for paradigmatic changes in our
approach. It should seek to answer the following question: How to educate
people for transformation towards a sustainable future? What kind of change
in thinking and action is needed? And what kind of pedagogical approaches
are required? (Lehtonen, Salonen and Cantell, 2019).
• Public Awareness: Important Issues
Climate Change requires a massive change in the current habits and

behaviors of individuals, communities, regions and nations. It is not possible
without education. Several countries have started major awareness programs
to sensitize the general public about climate changes. The sensitization
programs have been launched at several levels, for example individual level,
local level, national level and global level. However, the awareness programs
271
Introduction to
Global Climate in different countries have not yet yielded desired results. There are certain
Change deep-rooted intricacies of these issues which you must understand. It is now
well realized that climate change education has to be understood in the right
perspective. Educational interventions just on the basis of knowledge
acquisition will not lead to desired changes in the habits and behaviors.
However, there is yet to develop the right perspectives for climate education.
A study carried out by UNESCO reveals that public awareness is most
common commitments made for climate change education in most of the
countries. It is evident in their national submissions and future plans
nationally determined contributions (UNESCO, 2019)
• Interconnectedness: The ultimate aim of climate change education
Linear modern and fragmented thinking cannot work in the context of wicked
problems. Our thinking based on dichotomies is at the root of such problems.
In fact, such a world view promotes unsustainability and resulted in to
geological era of Anthropocene. Awareness of interconnectedness is missing
in our approach of climate change education. Different subjects are looking at
climate change education from entirely different perspectives, methods and
concepts. Quite often, the teaching in schools is organized in to subject
oriented structures with no interconnectedness between them (Lehtonen,
Salonen and Cantell, 2019). There is a need to bring about holistic and
systemic understanding of the world. Climate education programs have to
imbibe this feature in curriculum planning.
• Need to go beyond discipline-based knowledge
Traditionally, “Higher Education” is generally compartmentalized in to

highly specialized areas of knowledge and traditional disciplines. Climate
change related issues have been linked only to science subjects which have
given only lopsided view of the climate change education. In fact, climate
change is a wicked problem which means it is a complex, interconnected, has
multiple causes and suffers from scientific uncertainty (Davidson and Lyth
2012). Therefore, climate change education calls for an integrated and
interdisciplinary approach. Different disciplines have much to offer for
climate change education. However, several complex interactions between
social, economic and environmental domains of human life are the most
complex and interdependent issues with which society must deal. These
issues cannot be addressed through a lopsided perspective of disciplinary
knowledge. Exact solutions about the issues of sustainability can be found
across the disciplinary boundaries. Therefore, sustainable human future
would require a paradigm shift toward a systemic perspective emphasizing
collaboration and cooperation. Much of higher education stresses individual
learning and competition, resulting in professionals who are ill prepared for
cooperative efforts. Learning is fragmented, and faculty, responding to long-
established incentives (e.g., tenure, research) and professional practices, are
often discouraged from extending their work into other disciplines or inviting
272 interdisciplinary collaboration. The CCESD therefore calls for inputs for
teaching, research and extension from all the disciplines. Such integrated Atmosphere and
perspective will give an understanding of underlying social, economic, and Climate
political causes of climate change and priorities for transformation.
• Addressing local and global perspectives on climate change
As the climate related problems and its consequences are getting aggravated,
there is a dire need to build capacities at individual, local, national and global
level. Besides localized behavior and actions can have impacts at the global
level and people need to be capacitated to identify solutions at local, national,
regional, and global Levels. The situation is challenging primarily because of
the complexities involved in climate change. There is significant research
evidence to believe that climate change has strong bearing on apparently
unrelated issues like global poverty, social inequality, biodiversity loss,
natural resource depletion etc. Climate change is cause and consequence of
such issues. It makes climate change truly a multidimensional problem. There
cannot be a single prescription for resolving this problem. There is a dire
need to explore new knowledge to address such complex interrelationship
between climate change and social, economic and environmental dimensions
(Stephens et al, 2008). The solution has to be multidimensional and should
involve several social, economic and environmental factors.
1) Why education is needed for dealing with climate change?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) Should there be any change in conventional ways of education? If yes,

then explain why?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
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273
Introduction to
Global Climate 15.6 FLEXIBILITY AND INNOVATIVENESS:
Change
HALLMARKS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
EDUCATION
Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development (CCESD) need to
be transformative in nature, interdisciplinary and should promote action
competencies. It should not be limited to transfer of just knowledge and
skills, if it has to meaningfully contribute for mitigation and adaptation
efforts on climate change. The higher education sector is favorably placed to
take a lead in this direction through appropriate changes in curricula and
delivery; research; community outreach; and carbon sensitive campus
operations. As the concerns for Sustainable Development Goals have picked
up systems of “Higher Education” are coming to prominence in the policy
making circles. There is an increasing realization across the world that
“higher education institutions bear moral responsibility to increase
awareness, knowledge, skills, and values needed to create a just and
sustainable future” (Cortese, 2003). In this context open universities, due to
their innovative ways of program production and delivery have come to
forefront of national agendas particularly in developing countries where
target groups suffer from multiple vulnerabilities and depend on climate
sensitive livelihoods. In several developing countries, open universities have
started making a perceptible impact in the developmental scenarios.
Paradigmatically new ways of Curriculum Development, Program Delivery
and Community Outreach Programs have become popular in developing
countries. The grass-root priorities are increasingly finding a place in the
policy environments of Open Universities.
The conventional systems of “Higher Education” can no longer meet these

challenges because of its rigid and straight-jacketed approach. There is an
urgent need to make major structural changes in “Higher Education”. These
issues have been well realized in the formulation of post 2015 development
agenda of United Nations. The Higher Education Institutions are now gearing
up their systems and processes to creatively align with the requirements with
Sustainable Development (Second Nature, 2016). The need for innovative
and flexible “Higher Education” has now come to forefront of the global
debate for sustainable development. The SDG-4 has specially highlighted the
new roles of “Higher Education”. The policy environment of Higher
Education will be the key to unlock the potential of Higher Education to
address these challenges. Moreover, all the methods of delivery i.e. formal,
informal and non-formal education should be explored to reach out to diverse
target groups. Any single mode of delivery will not be sufficient to cover
every target group. There is also a realization that technology can open up
enormous possibilities for climate change education.
The technology enabled systems have emerged as an opportunity to enhance

the reach of capacity building programs for climate change. The usefulness of
274 such programs can be understood in the context of Paris Message, which
calls on Governments as follows: “We call on Governments to recognize the Atmosphere and
important contribution of Online, Open and Flexible systems to meet the Climate
challenge of scale and quality in the provision of Higher Education and

Lifelong Learning for the period 2015-2030”. (The Paris Message,
UNESCO, June 2015).
In this context MOOCs have a vital role to play. Since their origin in 2008,
MOOCs have attracted attention of educational planners, to educate diverse
target groups who cannot join conventional systems of education due to
various reasons. The usefulness of MOOCs as educative tool for climate
change awareness and literacy has given rise to CC-MOOCs (Climate
Change-Massive Open Online Courses). There is a widespread agreement
about the usefulness of using MOOCs for climate change capacity building
largely because of unique characteristics of target groups. The climate change
is a cross border phenomenon and therefore the online educational platforms
are an ideal way to address these requirements. MOOC has a potential to
connect people from multiple social and cultural locations, bring them on a
common interactive platform and thereby deliver programs on the issue of
common concern. They have special relevance for both developed and
developing countries. Where as in developing countries, the need for MOOC
primarily arises from livelihood commitments of the target groups, shortage
of infrastructure, shortage of academic expertise and spiral cost of
infrastructure for conventional education, in developed countries the
requirements ideally stem from the increasing number of people participating
in work force.
Number of such MOOCs have been consistently increasing. Their contents

are spread over diverse themes like knowledge, literacy and awareness on
climate change issues, topics such as the science of climate change,
economics of climate change, politics of climate change, or sociology of
climate change etc. It has been observed that the major initiatives for CC-
MOOCs have come from universities. However, some were developed by
private companies and non-governmental agencies, such as United Nations
Environment Program or World Wildlife Fund. The contributors of CC-
MOOCs have been uneven across different countries. Within the countries
category, the USA was the largest contributor of CC-MOOCs. The reason is
quite understandable as MOOCs were initially developed in North American
Universities. However, CC-MOOCs have also been developed by large
number of universities, and other institutions from Europe (in France,
Netherland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom), as well from
Asia, South Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. Most of these courses
aimed at large and unspecified audiences. Very few of them specified their
target population such as under graduate students, scientist or decision
makers. Among the CC-MOOCs some were specifically designed to support
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the 21st
conference of the Parties (COP21), where the Paris Agreement was signed in
December of 2015. 275
Introduction to
Change
1) Why interdisciplinary approach is inevitable for the climate education?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) In what way Open and Distance Learning systems are advantageously

placed to address the concerns for climate change?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
15.7 CAPACITY BUILDING: INTERNATIONAL

CONCERNS
The concept of “Capacity Building” does not have any well accepted or
tested body of theory. However, this concept has developed with the rising
international development cooperation since 1950 alongside the concepts of
‘institution building’, ‘institutional strengthening’, ‘human resource
development’, ‘institutional economics’, etc. There has been a popular notion
during post World War II period that differences in economic growth and
development among developing countries can be explained by the differing
quality of institutions responsible for economic management and therefore
development could be pursued through building and strengthening national
institutions. The focus was therefore on institution building and institutional
strengthening though such a notion did not attract any research support
within the international development community. Even the Universities
which have been traditionally engaged in generation of ideas and knowledge,
they have not developed any significant theoretical basis for the idea of
“Capacity Building”. The concept of Capacity Building came up in early
1990s in international development domain largely with the initiation of
World Bank. However later on development agencies started using the
concept of ‘capacity development’ without much of the difference between
the two terms, though there is a lack of consensus on what capacity
building/development actually means. However there appears to be a
consensus that capacity building must include individuals, institutions and
276
systems that collectively enable effective and sustainable development Atmosphere and
(ECBI, 2017). Climate
“Capacity Building can be defined as the ability to perform tasks and

produce outputs, to define and solve problems, and make informed choices”
(EuropeAid, 2007). The agenda 21 of United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED,1992) talks about the relevance of
country context and assessment of local needs for appropriate capacity
building action: “Specifically, capacity building encompasses the country’s
human, scientific, technological, organizational, institutional and resource
capabilities. A fundamental goal of capacity building is to enhance the ability
to evaluate and address the crucial questions related to policy choices and
modes of implementation among development options, based on an
understanding of environment potentials and limits and of needs perceived by
the people of the country concerned” (UNCED,1992)
15.7.1 Capacity Building in the Context of UNFCCC

There have been several capacity building initiatives within the context of
UNFCCC (the convention). Capacity building is also undertaken by different
international organizations and institutions, UN agencies, academia and civil
society through different projects and initiatives. Most of these initiatives are
bilateral and multilateral efforts, both within and outside the Convention.
Within UNFCCC there are more than 12 thematic bodies and operating
entities which undertake capacity building activities ranging from workshops
to e-learning modules, thematic dialogues, technical advice and support for
strengthened institutional policies and frameworks in developing countries.
Framework for Capacity Building in Developing Countries, agreed to as part
of the Marrakesh Accords at COP 7 in 2001 is the guiding framework for
capacity building in developing countries. The initiatives for capacity
building within the UNFCC are well documented. The efforts are compiled in
annual synthesis reports, prepared each year by the UNFCCC secretariat
They are also reviewed comprehensively by the Subsidiary Body for
Implementation (SBI) every five years. There are also platforms like Durban
Forum on Capacity Building and the Capacity-Building Portal for lesson
sharing and dissemination of information among Parties, civil society,
academia and international organizations. However, despite the considerable
multilateral and bilateral efforts under the UNFCCC, the developing
countries still face several capacity building challenges which jeopardize
their ability to carry out climate action.
15.7.2 International Cooperation

The requirements for capacity building have emerged in different countries as
per their socioeconomic context. Different countries are neither at same level
of development nor do they have same level of capabilities which is a major
constraint for building a low carbon and climate resilient world in an
equitable fashion. There has been a felt need for greater level playing field 277
Introduction to
Global Climate for developing countries in UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Change (UNFCCC). Unfortunately, many developing countries still need expertise to
articulate the climate related issues of their countries to negotiate on
international platforms.
However, there is a serious lack of senior negotiators in developing countries.

Further there is an effective communication block between senior negotiators
from developed and developing countries. As the climate change issues are
getting aggravated, the developing countries will need capable negotiators to
defend their positions on international platforms. This is the reason why
European Capacity Building Initiative (ECBI) adopted a two-pronged
strategy in UNFCCC. The first part of such a strategy involved developing
training programs for new negotiators from developing countries (particularly
from least developed countries). It was felt necessary because climate change
negotiations are often technical and complex and it is difficult for new
negotiators to understand their intricacies easily. Second part of strategy
aimed to create opportunities for senior negotiators from such countries to
interact with their European counterparts. It was intended to create informal
spaces for a greater degree of appreciation about each other’s positions,
discuss their differences and build mutual trust among them.
15.7.3 Towards a New Paradigm of Capacity Building

The developing countries have always lacked the capacities to handle the
climate change. This is one of the reasons why there has been a felt need to
develop capacities at various levels. It poses a serious challenge as the most
vulnerable communities in such countries are mostly dependent upon climate
sensitive livelihoods, live in geographically isolated regions and are outside
the institutional framework for capacity building. Though the capacity
building initiatives have long been taken by developed countries, such
initiatives have fulfilled a limited purpose, which consisted of developed
countries allocating funds either through their respective bilateral aid
agencies or UN Agencies or multilateral development banks for supporting
capacity building in developing countries. Such mediating agencies used
international experts as “parachute” to the developing countries for a short
time to carry out capacity building workshops in those countries. Developed
countries were quite happy with such paradigm of supporting developing
countries through consultant driven support. However, such a model of “fly-
in and fly-out” model for building up capacities had failed to make any
significant long-term impact in developing countries. The amounts of
funding, the channels for delivery and the beneficiaries were decided by the
developed country. There has been a feeling for enhanced support and
monitoring of such support mechanisms through appropriate institutional
arrangements. Such feelings among the developing countries were not
without any reason. Post-2020 international climate regime calls for
278 significant emission reduction efforts and simultaneously increasing
resilience to climate change. However, countries are at different stages of Atmosphere and
development and capacities. Developing countries are specially Climate
disadvantaged due to poor capacities at different levels. This is a major

hindrance in the process of building a carbon resilient world in an equitable
way. Effective capacities at different levels will enable developing countries
to contribute for global efforts to reduce emissions and adaptation to climate
change which requires enhanced, strategic and sustained approaches for
capacity building and education. There is a need to strengthen the
Institutional Architecture for Capacity Building in these countries. Despite
the fact that several multilateral and bilateral initiatives have already been
taken, most developing countries continue to face significant capacity
challenges which undermines their ability to effectively or fully carry out the
intended climate actions. Public awareness and support for climate action
within these countries is limited. Existing information base, research
expertise and training in assessment approaches and methodologies is
limited. There is a lack of strong policy environment and processes needed to
effectively plan, manage and coordinate capacity building activities. These
challenges have continued to persist over a period of time. The support for
capacity building from international institutions has been ad hoc extended
through short-term project-based approach. Moreover, there has not been
coherent centralized institution, regular monitoring and review processes in
place to ensure sustained and long-term capacity at the institutional and
systemic levels. Hence there is a need to improve institutional architecture,
improving monitoring, analysis, and review of capacity-building activities
and fostering cooperation at international, national, sub-national, and regional
levels. The matter of capacity building has come to the forefront of
international agenda with the advent of Paris agreement.
15.7.4 Paris Agreement and Capacity Building

Paris agreement’s basic premise is the participation of all which necessitates
the capacity building at all the levels. It provides an opportunity to build the
capacities needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Paris agreement
has set a roadmap for capacity building by establishing the Paris Committee
in Capacity Building (PCCB).This committee has objective to develop
comprehensive work program including identification of capacity gaps and
needs, to develop cooperation at international, regional, national, and sub-
national levels, to enhance synergies, coordination, collaboration, and
coherence among existing bodies and activities within and outside the
UNFCCC, to promote development and dissemination of relevant tools and
methodologies and lastly to develop systems for collection of best practices
and lessons learned, with a goal of enhancing ownership and retention of
capacity at national, regional, and sub-national levels.
The issue got attention of the international community during pre-

negotiations during Paris Agreement. Developing countries raised serious
concerns for changing prevailing paradigm. The argument for need of
279
Introduction to
Global Climate paradigmatic changes in prevailing practices were accepted and Paris
Change Agreement adopted Article 11 on Capacity Building which supports the need
for every country to develop in-country sustainable capacity building systems
and no longer depending on international consultants forever. It was also felt
that there was a need to oversee capacity building initiatives. Therefore, Paris
Committee on Capacity Building (PCCB) was formed having equal
representation from developed and developing countries. Several new
initiatives were taken to involve Universities as well as other think tanks
from developed and developing countries e.g., University Network on
Capacity for Climate Change (UNCCC) and the LDC Universities
Consortium on Climate Change (LUCCC). A major challenge is to measure
capacity building at national level. Here are different ways to categorize it.
The first step is to raise awareness about climate change. For instance, among
developing countries, Bangladesh has a high level of awareness as many
people are familiar about the word climate change. This can be called first
level of capacity building. As a further step there is a need for knowledge of
solutions. As a one more step further, each stakeholder group should also
know what kind of role they are expected to play to tackle adaptation and
mitigation of climate change. For instance, the role of government officials
from different ministries, NGOs, private sector, media or academia will be
different. Each such group have to be capacitated on their respective roles.
1) How does the poor capacities in different developing countries adversely

affect the interests of developed countries?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) What are the concerns shown in Paris Agreement for capacity building in
developing countries?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
280
15.8 CASE STUDIES Atmosphere and
Climate
Case Study 1: Learning Sustainable Development with Mobile Devices

(Chen and Hsu, 2007)
The theory of situation cognition emphasizes that the instruction for

conceptual knowledge is most effective when embedded in a physical and
social environment. Therefore, complex environmental issues can be best
learnt through effective engagement of students in real life situations. The
students effectively connect such field experience to the theoretical concepts
of sustainable development learned in classrooms. Technological
advancement of mobile devices has opened up new possibilities to create
learning environments outside the classrooms. A case study conducted by
Chen and Hsu provides useful insights about the use of mobile devices in
learning sustainable development. The study involved the students in a field
trip to local historical ditch to study a mobile learning module. Eight high
school teachers and 14 tenth-grade students participated in the self-guiding
field trip. Every student was provided a Pocket Fieldwork Assistant (PFA)
developed with mobile technology. The device was configured to conduct the
field trip without the company of teachers hence reducing the cost of a field
trip. The Pocket Fieldwork Assistant (PFA) served two main functions,
namely, route guide and learning support. The route guide provides details
about the pre-defined field spots in the study area and provide information
about transport route for each spot. The learning support component of PFA
adopts inquiry-guided pedagogy and enables the students to be active
learners. The device also gives access to reading resources and a local map of
the irrigation ditch to facilitate them to answer field-based questions.
Students were guided by the mobile device to visit 5 waypoints showing
various land-use types upon the ditch. Students were asked to collect field
data and interview local residents to evaluate 3 scenarios regarding the future
development of the Liugong irrigation ditch, a historical heritage ditch in
Taipei metropolis. The students found such learning activities interesting and
felt highly confident to solve the field problems themselves with the help of
advanced technology. Both teachers and students confirmed that module was
helpful to students to study local environmental issues as well as the concepts
of sustainable development.
Case Study 2: Creating awareness of food safety and climate change

through mobile learning (Vijayakumar, Venkatramanan and Salooja, 2015)
As concerns for climate change are rising, the food safety and food security
have emerged as major challenge. The potential impact of climate change on
food safety includes increased ability of fungi to produce mycotoxins,
emergence of virulent pathogens, stress induced microbial evolution,
increased use of pesticides and decreased water availability driven food
spoilage. There is need of capacity building at various levels and applied
research on food safety to mitigate the risks associated with food spoilage.
281
Introduction to
Global Climate The demand for awareness building is huge and cannot be met solely through
Change conventional ways of education. Open and Distance Learning systems, due to
its innovative and flexible nature, can prove to be cost effective for a wider
and larger level of coverage. As the mobile penetration is increasing, there is
a new opportunity to launch capacity building programs in a cost-effective
manner. The mobile learning can involve the use of mobile technology either
alone or in combination with other ICT to enable learning anytime and
anywhere. It is the delivery of tailored learning contents and learning support
on mobile phones, tablets, notebooks. Development of mobile applications in
different mobile operating systems like android, iOS, Windows etc. can help
in creating awareness as well as stimulating critical thinking. Triggering
critical thinking can be done by providing contents like Scramble, crossword,
brain games, puzzles, cartoons etc.
Case Study 3: Scalable online capacity-building for heterogeneous,

geographically dispersed communities (Wolf et al, 2016)
Though energy drives development in all the countries, SIDS have some
unique problems related to energy sector. Most of the SIDS, have a heavy
reliance on non-renewable energy supplies (i.e. oil and gas). They have to
import such energy resources at a high cost, despite having a large potential
for the production of renewable energy, availability and cost-effectiveness of
energy efficiency technologies. Lack of skilled human resources in energy
sector is one of the major obstacles to the uptake of renewable and energy
efficient technologies. They create structural barriers to a sustainable
development path in these countries. The unmanaged energy sector can have
detrimental impacts of long-term climate change. Therefore, human capacity-
building in particular has been identified as a key socio-economic driver in
SIDS which are already confronting with poor socio-economic conditions.
The poor socio-economic status of these countries is another major hassle for
creating training infrastructure. It is difficult to create conventional classroom
based educational systems for the capacity building primarily because of
geographical isolation, remoteness of the islands and job commitments of
target groups. Development of online interactive platforms can create
innovative and flexible learning environment for the learners. Such
collaborative, interactive learning formats can promote education for
sustainability and address the chronic human capacity problem that
constrains the quicker uptake of sustainable energy technologies in
geographically inaccessible and remote locations. These online platforms
have been used to design innovative capacity building programs for the
energy sector in SIDS. Geographic features of Small Island states make them
especially vulnerable to short-term climate variability. Their energy related
training requirements cannot be effectively met through conventional ways of
capacity building. Such countries need this training to achieve Sustainable
Development Goals (SDG) and to reduce energy poverty. Online learning
can facilitate innovative formats of practice centered trainings which can
282 effectively address local needs and helped overcome geographical constraints
of remote islands. Hamburg University of Applied Sciences has taken an Atmosphere and
innovative initiative to develop a MOOC to build up the capacities of energy Climate
practitioners in such countries. The initiative has given rise to tremendous

enthusiasm in target communities and effectively matches their aspirations.
Case Study 4: Improving Livelihoods and Mitigating Climate Change in

Mexico’s Forest Communities (Source: World Bank, 2019)
Ever since the Paris Climate Agreement came in to force, the global support
for forest-based climate change mitigation and adaptation measures has
increased. In 2012, Mexico pledged to bring an end to deforestation in the
country and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 22% by the year
2030.The Mexico’s forests had been a source of livelihoods for about 12
million poor people who own approximately 61% of the country’s 88 million
hectares of forests. However, most of these forests are cleared for agriculture
or other purposes, leaving the residents unable to reap the benefits of these
natural resources. There is a need for policy design and institutional
strengthening for cross sector collaborations; technical assistance to the local
communities; consolidation of local forestry management programs thereby
creating avenues for additional incomes and motivation for reforestation; and
to streamline community-based initiatives in early action areas through
innovative preventive measures. In order to address these issues Mexico’s
National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR), the World Bank and FAO
developed a Forests and Climate Change Project to promote sustainable,
productive forest management strategies. Through project activities the rural
communities acquired planning and implementation support to increase forest
conservation, production and productivity which significantly contributed for
much needed resilience of local communities to climate change, better
income opportunities and expansion of community managed forest areas
besides reducing deforestation decreased by 25 to 50 percent in project areas.
The results have been overwhelming as project’s initiatives could help over
1,000 agrarian communities in their efforts to transform over 1.8 million
hectares into sustainably-managed forests, creating upwards of 9,000 jobs.
Case Study 5: Using Radio and Television Media to fight Climate

Change: Echoes from Ghana (Source: COL Web Site)
This study was carried out to examine the role of diverse forms of media to
fight climate change. It concluded that mass media can create an effective
knowledge base of individuals to make informed decisions, develop their
skills and empower them to ensure a sustainable change. The study was
carried out in Southern Ghana (a part of Central region) where a sample of
500 adult audiences (ten people from each of the fifty communities) of 15
radios and television stations were randomly selected to participate in this
study. The sample population was interviewed in their homes at the start of
the study and their knowledge level on climate change effect was recorded.
For three months open learning sessions were organized in local language
through video, television, radio and social media. The study was set up in a 283
Introduction to
Global Climate double-blind fashion to reduce the risk of any bias. Initially, 12% of the
Change sample population could only state that climate change can directly affect
water and oceans and there was nothing they could do. They were not aware
that an assessment would be taken orally at the end of the survey period.
Assessment at the end of the study period showed 80% of the population was
able to state correctly the five components of the environment directly
affected by climate change. Also, 65% argued that the human population
could reduce the effects easily with community education, organization, and
resources mobilization. 73% formed climate change clubs in their
communities during the period. These clubs had become focal points for
organizing community initiatives for local developmental initiatives. The
communities have been empowered sufficiently by the research study, having
built their capacity to demand environmental justice assurance from agencies
and people, which hitherto have been degrading the environment in such
communities.
15.9 LET US SUM UP

Issues of ‘Climate Education’ and ‘Capacity building’ have got renewed
attention with the launch of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These
goals emphasize for climate education-under their targets 4.7, 12.8 and 13.3,
and their global indicators. Further, article 12 of the Paris Agreement calls for
effective mechanisms for climate change education, training, public
awareness, public participation and public access to information.
It is now well realized and understood that, the role of education to deal with
climate change requires paradigmatically different approaches. The business-
as-usual approach of educational systems will not work. Climate change not
only poses dangers for entire planet but it also offers enormous opportunities
that arise by adopting solutions to it (UNFCCC, n.d, b). These opportunities
cannot be realized without building capacities of the developing countries. In
this context innovative and flexible systems of capacity building are gaining
prominence across the world.
15.10 KEY WORDS

Capacity Building: It can be defined as the ability to perform tasks and
produce outputs, to define and solve problems, and make informed choices.

READING/REFERENCES
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sustainable development in India", International Journal of Sustainability in
Higher Education, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp. 141-152. https:// doi.org/10.1108/
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Reducing Carbon Footprint and Expanding Carbon Brain print. In: Leal Filho Atmosphere and
W., Azul A., Brandli L., Özuyar P., Wall T. (eds) Quality Education. Climate
Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham
Chen, C. and T. Hsu, T. (2007) Learning Sustainable Development with

Mobile Devices. In: Proceedings of Geographical Views on Education for
Sustainable Development, Lucerna.
Cortese A D (2003) Critical role of higher Education for creating a

sustainable future
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1&type=pdf
Dagnet, Y., E. Northrop, D. Tirpak. (2015). “How to Strengthen the

Institutional Architecture for Capacity Building to Support the Post-2020
Climate Regime.”Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources
Institute. Available online at http://www.wri.org/ publications/
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Davidson, J & Lyth L (2012) Education for Climate Change Adaptation —

Enhancing the Contemporary Relevance of Planning Education for a Range
of Wicked Problems, Journal for Education in the Built
Environment, 7:2, 63-83, DOI: 10.11120/jebe.2012.07020063 (accessed on
20th July 2020)
Ebenezer Koomson, MPH. District Director of Health Services Ass in South

District-Ghana, Commonwealth of Learning (COL) web
site,http://oasis.col.org/bitstream/handle/11599/1990/2013_Koomson_Radio
TVClimateChange.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
ECBI (2017) Pocket Guide to Capacity Building, European Capacity

Building Initiative”, https://ecbi.org/sites/default/files/FINAL-Capacity-
Building.pdf (accessed on 20th July 2020)
Hawken, P. 1997. Natural Capitalism. Mother Jones, March/April, 40–53.
Kanwar A and Carr A (2019) ZENA DAYSH LECTURE Commonwealth

Human Ecology Council, London, COL, http:// oasis.col.org/ bitstream/
handle/11599/3467/2019_Kanwar_Our_Changing_Climate_Transcript.pdf?s
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Kumar C (2020) Scope of Education for Sustainable Development. In: Leal

Filho W., Azul A., Brandli L., Özuyar P., Wall T. (eds) Quality Education.
Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham
Lehtonen A., Salonen A.O., Cantell H. (2019) Climate Change Education: A

New Approach for a World of Wicked Problems. In: Cook J. (eds)
Sustainability, Human Well-Being, and the Future of Education. Palgrave
Macmillan, Cham,https://rd.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-
319-78580-6.pdf
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Global Climate Pandey U.C., Kumar C. (2018) Emerging Paradigms of Capacity Building in
Change the Context of Climate Change. In: Azeiteiro U., Leal Filho W., Aires L.
(eds) Climate Literacy and Innovations in Climate Change Education.
Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham
Second Nature (2016) Quotes from Higher Education leaders on climate

action, https://secondnature.org/quotes-higher-education-climate/ (accessed
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Stefens J C et al (2008) Higher education as a change agent for sustainability

in different cultures and contexts, https://www.uvm.edu/ giee/pubpdfs/
Stephens_2008_International%20Journal%20of%20Sustainability.pdf(acesse
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outreach/climate-challenge/ (Accessed on 18th Feb2020)
UNESCO (2010) UNESCO Climate Change Initiative, UNESCO Digital

Library, https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000190101 (accessed on
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and Public awareness, An analysis of country submission under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, (CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO)
licence
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UNESCO (n.d.) Climate Change Education, https:// en.unesco.org/ themes/

education-sustainable-development/cce (accessed on 20th July 2020)
UNFCCC (nd, a) Education and training under article 6,

https://unfccc.int/topics/education-and-outreach/workstreams/education-and-
training (accessed on 18th Feb 2020)
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https://unfccc.int/news/article-6-climate-education-and-training (accessed on
18th Feb 2020)
Vijayakumar, P, Venkatramanan, V and Salooja, M K. (2015) Creating

awareness of food safety and climate change through mobile learning. In:
Proceedings of The Second International Conference on Open and Flexible
Education (ICOFE 2015) – making learning mobile and ubiquitous (Edited
by Kin Sun Yuen and Kam Cheong Li). Published by The Open University of
Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. Pp: 306- 312. ISBN 978-988-8238-
08-8.
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IGO).
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mexicos-forest-communities (accessed on 14th March 2020)

287
Introduction to
Global Climate
Change
UNIT 16 CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
Structure
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Objectives
16.3 History of Climate Change Debate
16.3.1 First Phase: The Emergence of Scientific Consensus
16.3.2 Second Phase: Agenda Setting
16.3.3 Third Phase: Early International Responses

16.3.4 Fourth Phase: Negotiation of the FCCC
16.3.5 Fifth Phase: Post-Rio Developments

16.4 Kyoto Protocol
16.5 Copenhagen Summit 2009
16.5.1 India and Copenhagen Summit
16.5.2 India’s Position

16.5.3 Impact of India’s Position on the Copenhagen Summit
16.6 Paris Agreement
16.7 India’s Response Framework
16.8 National Action Plan on Climate Change
16.9 State Governments’ Efforts to Address Climate Change: State Action
Plan
16.9.1 Tamil Nadu
16.9.2 Delhi
16.9.3 Jharkhand
16.10 Assessment of State Action Plans on Climate Change
16.11 Let Us Sum Up
16.12 Key Words
16.1 INTRODUCTION
“We have the moral responsibility to bequeath to our children a world which
is safe, clean and productive, a world which should continue to inspire the
human imagination with the immensity of the blue ocean, the loftiness of
snow-covered mountains, the green expanse of extensive forests and the
silver streams of ancient rivers,” said the former Prime Minister of India, Dr.
Manmohan Singh.
288 Climate change as a global issue is affecting the lives of both developing and
developed countries. Moreover, the debates on climate change are helping to Atmosphere and
build up a comprehensive climate change regime with a country-specific Climate
action plan. The climate change management at the international level

consists of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the decisions taken by the
signatory countries under these instruments. Even though, it was considered
as a first step to address climate change and its consequences, it was not
sufficient to force member States to take appropriate actions to address
climate change with rapid change in environment and rising temperature. It
was widely considered an inadequate instrument to combat climate change.
Both the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol did not contain the necessary clauses
to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, which resulted in a lack of
binding obligation for developing countries. Some of the developing
countries withdrew from the Kyoto protocol in the second commitment
period. Hence, Parties to the UNFCCC came together and formed an Ad-
Hoc Working Group at the Durban Conference in 2011. It was called as
Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) to negotiate a new climate
agreement by 2015 that would come into force from 2020. The four years of
continuous negotiating process resulted in the formulation of the 2015 Paris
Agreement, which was expected to govern, regulate and incentivise the next
generation of climate actions. With this introduction, through this unit, we
will discuss Copenhagen Summit; Paris Agreement; National Action Plan on
Climate Change (India) and State’s Action Plan in India.
16.2 OBJECTIVES
• discuss the history of climate change debate;

• explain the significance of Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement on
Climate Change;
• describe Copenhagen summit 2009 and India’s position in Copenhagen
Summit;
• describe National Action Plan on Climate Change; and
• examine the efforts of state governments in India to address climate
change related issues.
16.3 HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE

Climate change as an environmental fact has begun to felt in the year 1987
with the release of the Brundtland Commission report, Our Common Future.
The report highlighted the issues such as depletion of ozone layer, loss of
biological diversity and the rising greenhouse gas concentration and argued
for achieving sustainability by formulating effective socio-economic policies.
The development of global climate change regime can be divided into five
phases prior to the Kyoto protocol. The five periods are as follows; 289
Introduction to
Global Climate • The foundational period expresses scientific concern about global
Change warming.
• The agenda-setting phase (1985-88) intended to transform the scientific
concern into policy matter.
• Pre-negotiation period (1988-1990) involved government in the process
of climate change regime
• The formal intergovernmental negotiation (1992) impressed upon the
adoption of FCCC by May, 1992
• The post-agreement phase focused on the elaboration and
implementation of FCCC and the adoption of Kyoto commitments.
16.3.1 First Phase: The Emergence of Scientific Consensus

In the early 1960s, the increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gas was published by the scientists from Mauna Loa, Hawaii to establish
climate change as a scientific fact. The 1979 report of the National Academy
of Science evaluated the existing models of the atmosphere and concluded
that the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to future
climate change. By the mid-1980s, scientists opined that anthropogenic
emission of gases like methane and nitrous oxide are also cause of concern.
16.3.2 Second Phase: Agenda Setting

The accumulation of scientific knowledge has significantly contributed
towards forming both public and political opinion on the issues of climate
change. Scientists across the world worked to push climate change debate
into public. The establishment of the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases
and the report of the Enquete Commission helped to translate the
uncertainties of climate change science into a real-world possibility.
16.3.3 Third Phase: Early International Responses

The establishment of IPCC in 1988 is a landmark in climate change debate.
The IPCC has produced comprehensive assessment reports in 1990, 1995,
2001, 2007, 2014, and 1.5oC special report in 2018. IPCC reports on the
scientific assessment of global warming compelled the governments to
initiate strong position with regard to climate change concern. In the
Noordwijk meeting, the split occurred amongst the governments of western
countries with regard to committing themselves towards addressing the
challenges of climate variability. In this context, many European countries
had joined the CANZ group in support of imposing quantitative limitations
upon the countries to reduce the emission level of greenhouse gas. In
contrast, United States and other Western States continued to give emphasis
more on having a neutral position than adopting the European model of
target-timetable approach in reducing the rate of greenhouse emission.
Developing countries showed unity among themselves and agreed to adopt
290 the target-time table approach and shown commitment in promoting
technology transfer to reduce the emission level. As a Plan of Action, various Atmosphere and
small island states of developing nations formed an alliance and formulate Climate
the body, i.e., Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which played a key
role to further FCCC negotiations in reducing carbon dioxide emission
intensity. On the other hand, the oil producing states critically looked at the
science of climate change and argued for adopting a go-slow approach for
carbon dioxide emission reduction. Similarly, developing countries like
Brazil, India and China emphasized on their right to economic growth and
formed a strong opinion to accept the principle of differential responsibility
in combating climate change impact.
16.3.4 Fourth Phase: Negotiation of the FCCC

In the year 1990, the UN General Assembly established the body, i.e.,
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on
Climate Change (INC/FCCC) with specific emphasis on imposing
appropriate commitments upon the countries. The primary principles
included in the Convention were as follows:
1) Target and Time tables: The European Union and AOSIS advocated to
follow target and timetable approach to limit the emission level.
2) Financial Assistance and Transfer of Technology: The developing

countries demanded for creating a new fund towards helping developing
countries in implementing the Convention.
3) Institution and Implementation Mechanisms: OECD countries

including United States advocated to establish implementation
machineries including scientific body, deliberate meetings, reporting,
and monitoring of the implementation work to tackle the climate change
problem.
16.3.5 Fifth Phase: Post-Rio Developments

UN conference on Environment and Development at Rio deliberated on
issues like global climate change, biological diversity, deforestation and
desertification and many treaties and agreements were signed. And it also
stressed that the nation’s future policies on economic development should be
drafted by considering the environmental implications of socio-economic
development. Agenda 21 was a special product of this conference which is
also known as Earth summit. The Earth Summit led to the formation of
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is a treaty signed by 192
countries. It does not set any binding targets on countries for cutting
emissions. It only calls for stabilizing carbon emissions. But it set in motion
international negotiations for settling the issue of who will cut and how
much. The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 onwards in
conference of parties (COP). The Conference of the Parties is the governing
body of the Convention, and advances implementation of the Convention 291
Introduction to
Global Climate through the decisions it takes at its periodic meetings.
Change
The Convention entered into force in the Berlin conference in the year 1994
to elaborate and implement the commitments to address climate change
problem. The Berlin meeting had the following objectives:
• To establish an ad hoc committee to negotiate a protocol;

• To initiate joint-activities among the participating countries to carry out a
survey;
• To use Global Environment Facility as the FCCC’s financial mechanism;
and
• To locate FCCC permanent office at Bonn.
Broadly, the negotiations in relation to climate change were subscribed to

two major concerns such as: Emission-target limitations for developed
nations; and establishing different mechanisms for developed nations to meet
the targets. The climate change debate needs to address the issue of equity
not only in relation to the future generation but also in relation to the present
generation. In response to the challenge, the international community phrased
the common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) principle as the guiding
principle of climate change science.
16.4 KYOTO PROTOCOL

The Kyoto protocol was adopted on December 11, 1997 at the Kyoto. It came
into force in February 2005. Under the protocol, 39 industrialized countries,
Annexure I countries, committed themselves to reducing the emissions by 5.2
per cent of the 1990 levels by 2012. The Kyoto Protocol was formulated on
the basic principle of CBDR and specified that industrialized countries will
have to take lead in the process of reduction of greenhouse gas emission. The
Kyoto mechanisms include three strategies to reduce emission level such as
Joint Implementation (JI), The Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and
Emission Trading. The Kyoto protocol also assists countries in adapting to
the adverse effects of climate change. It facilitates the development and
deployment of techniques that can help increase resilience to the impacts of
climate change. The adaptation fund was established to finance adaptation
projects and programmes in developing countries that are parties to the Kyoto
protocol. The fund is financed mainly with the share of proceeds from Clean
Development Mechanism project activities. Kyoto protocol applies to
industrial nations only. Developing countries like India and China were not
required to commit to reductions because their per capita GHG emissions are
much lower than those of developed nations.
The commitments included in the Kyoto protocol ranged from developing

national inventories/strategies of greenhouse gas emissions, formulating and
implementing national level programs with regard to mitigation and
292 adaptation strategies of climate change, promoting and cooperating the
transfer of sustainable technology, promoting sustainable and integrated Atmosphere and
development, cooperating in preparing adaptation plans, promoting and Climate
supporting scientific research and promoting education, training and public

awareness about the effect of climate change (Atapattu 2008). In the year
2001, the protocol suffered major setback because US refused to ratify which
is producing 36.1 % of the carbon dioxide emission. EU and Japan supported
the protocol and ratified it. Reluctance supporters are US, Australia, Russia
and Canada. The major shortcomings of the Kyoto protocol are:
• Excluding developing countries from the protocol. This will reduce the
effectiveness of the agreement.
• Exclusion of India and China which constitute 36% of world’s
population and both countries are growing economy.
• Using of older, outdated and environmentally unfriendly technologies by
the developing countries, which are excluded from the Kyoto protocol.
• Growing unchecked developing countries emission.
• The Kyoto protocol only raises the awareness and not in real terms.
16.5 COPENHAGEN SUMMIT 2009

The mandate of the 15th Conference of Parties (COP) in Copenhagen is to
enhance long term cooperation on climate change under the Bali action plan.
The Copenhagen summit was convened to negotiate post-Kyoto protocol
agreement at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
to sign a legally binding deal. The Bali action plan in the year 2007 laid a
roadmap for the post-Kyoto Protocol agreement for developed countries
(Annexure 1 parties in the convention) to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG)
emission and assist developing countries to adapt climate change. The
developed countries also agreed to help developing countries by transferring
their technology to make them to adopt low carbon emission path way. The
Bali climate convention has agreed two track negotiations: 1. “working group
for long-term cooperative action”, 2. “working group on Kyoto protocol”.
IPCC set the targets for the Copenhagen negotiations. According to them, the
GHG emissions will increase enormously by 2015 and then decline by 25-
40% over 1990 level by 2020 and will reduce by 80 % over 1990 by 2050 to
stabilize carbon dioxide concentration at 450ppm to limit the global warming
below 20C (IPCC 2007). The analysis of World Resource institute shows that
the commitments announced so far by rich countries may add up to only 13-
19 % emission reduction whereas according to IPCC, 25-40 % reduction is
needed (Levin and Bradley, 2009). According to the study by International
Energy Agency, limiting global warming to 20C with the carbon dioxide
concentration limited to 450ppm is feasible, only if the world is ready to
invest in low carbon technologies. The key issues discussed at Copenhagen
summit are as follows:
293
Introduction to
Global Climate • Making continuous progress in the negotiations of Kyoto protocol.
Change
• Insisting governments to commit mid-term GHG emissions reduction.
• Developing scientific monitoring, reporting and verification methods.
• Funding for adaptation and mitigation.
• Transferring technology to the developing countries.
According to the assessment, even if the carbon dioxide concentration is

stabilized at 450 ppm which seems highly unlikely there is 26-78 % of risk of
overshooting the 2oC goal (Meinshausen, 2005). The Copenhagen summit
has taken into consideration of scientific communities’ view on restricting
global warming below 20C. After the debates and the intervention of Island
countries and Least Developed Countries, the summit included 1.50C as a
target for future negotiations and considerations. This Copenhagen summit
also recognized the need to cooperate in achieving halting of the global and
national emissions as soon as possible by keeping the special circumstances
of developing countries and the need for economic development and poverty
alleviation (Ravindranath, 2010).
Copenhagen green fund was established to support mitigation, adaptation,

technology transfer and reducing emissions from deforestation. The accord
also agreed to transfer technology by establishing a mechanism to do the
same. The developed countries agreed to provide US$ 30 billion immediately
for the period of 2010-2012 and mobilize US$ 100 billion per year for the
developing countries.
16.5.1 India and Copenhagen Summit

The Indian delegations in the Copenhagen Summit have expressed the
positive outcome because it does not set the time limit for reducing the GHG
emissions. India has to increase fossil fuel-based energy to promote the
economic growth. The assumption is that if it increases the fossil fuel energy,
it automatically reduces the poverty.
India’s expectation from Copenhagen Summit is as follows:
• International cooperation should be there to combat climate change.

• The outcome of the negotiations in the Copenhagen should be fair and
equitable. It must be in accordance with the “principle of common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” as per 1992
Rio declaration.
• Summit should provide a space to accelerate socio-economic
development in order to eradicate poverty through ecologically
sustainable manner.
16.5.2 India’s Position

1) India, as a sovereign State totally rejected any form of surveillance or
294
supervision by international organisations in relation to CO2 emission Atmosphere and
reduction within the state, especially to the extent that: Climate
• It did not want financial support from international agencies or

organization. It was ready to manage from domestic resources.
• It was ready to take its own procedure for reduction of CO2 emissions
and the percentage reduction will remain at the discretion of the country.
2) The Copenhagen Conference is not a legally binding text. The

Copenhagen Conference is only a procedure for improving the existing
institutional framework to combat climate change and is not under any
circumstances a re-negotiation of it nor can it result in the development
of a new framework.
3) The Kyoto Protocol remains the core, adequately binding text at

international level, and consequently it was not considered necessary to
prepare a new text. The only subject for debate is determination of new
restrictions on the quantity of CO2 emissions for developed countries and
the setting of a new time period for achieving those targets after 2010.
4) As mentioned earlier, the developed economies are responsible for the

phenomenon of underdevelopment in the global system. As a
consequence, it is for certain that the responsibility of the developed
countries to actively support sustainable development in developing
countries by transferring economic resources and technology without
enforcing conditions of any sort, such as patents or copyright. The
parties responsible for the underdevelopment cannot set conditions.
5) It is unfair to impose emission norms to all industries at global level on

issues relating to sectoral emission reduction policies. In other words, the
types of industries which cause the greatest harm by emitting large
quantities of CO2 must be identified and focus should be given only on
those industries.
It may be stated that the “Accord is meant to facilitate the ongoing

negotiations in the two tracks in accordance with the principles and
provisions of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Action Plan.
The Accord was not adopted by the Conference of Parties but just taken note
of. However, the Accord could have value if the areas of convergence
reflected in the Accord are used to help the Parties reach agreed outcomes
under the UN multilateral negotiations in the two tracks, i.e., the Ad-hoc
Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action and the Ad-hoc Working
Group on Kyoto Protocol. The Accord is only an input into the two-track
negotiations. The Accord is not /a new track of negotiations or a template for
outcomes.”(www.usclimatenetwork.org/policy/copenhagen-accord-
commitments#note10).
295
Introduction to
Global Climate 16.5.3 Impact of India’s Position on the Copenhagen Summit
Change
1) India has emerged as regional leader in the SAARC region by
strengthening its economy.
2) Development of basic block in the conference is the result of India’s

aspiration as a regional leader to foster ad hoc partnership.
3) It has strengthened its relationship with China.
4) The closer ties of India and China on climate change issues are expected
to bring multiple impact at the international level.
5) India strengthened its position by mobilizing more developing countries

to adopt joint position and shape the final conference text. So, the text
was not binding. It acted as a powerful member for the economically
developing force.
6) The role played by the G77 was worth to be noted and India being part of
G77 group had a significant influence.
7) The conference proceedings showed that the developed countries have

split into many and least developed countries took different positions.
The island nations had a different position. This affected the outcome of
the conference proceedings and the conference could not take specific
time frame for implementing the climate change.
1) What are the issues discussed at Copenhagen Summit?
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2) List out the expectations of India from Copenhagen Summit.
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296
16.6 PARIS AGREEMENT Atmosphere and
Climate
At the Durban Conference (COP 17) an “Ad-Hoc Working Group on the

Durban Platform for Enhanced Action” was established “to develop a
protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force
under the Convention applicable to all Parties”, by COP 21 so that it can be
adopted no later than 2015. The Paris Agreement is the outcome of four-year
negotiating process and multilateral diplomacy. Article 2 of the Paris
Agreement, states that “in enhancing the implementation of the Convention,
including its objective, the agreement aims to strengthen the global response
to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and
efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and
pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-
industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks
and impacts of climate change; (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the
adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low
greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten
food production; and (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway
towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development”.
Paris Agreement entered into force on 4th November, 2016. The main
features of the agreement are universal application; the principle of equity
and principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities; and “legally binding agreement that will apply to those states
that have expressed their consent to be bound by means of ratification,
acceptance, approval, or accession”. With respect to our country, the
agreement demands India to submit “national contributions” every five years;
and to embark on low carbon development pathway.
The successful multilateral diplomacy has brought a historic Paris Agreement

to address climate change. The Paris Agreement binds all States that have
expressed their consent to be bound by this agreement. Once they accept and
approve, they ratify the same and take necessary measures to implement the
same by formulating laws, policies and programmes. Any legal character of a
provision in the international treaties makes the parties to oblige legally. It
also set the standards for States to achieve the obligations within prescribed
time period. States need to assess their work in a regular interval and submit
reports periodically. This may give clear picture whether states have
compliance/non-compliance to the agreed provisions. If we assess Paris
Agreement through these lenses, states need to fully oblige mitigation and
transparency sections of the Agreement. Unlike mitigation and transparency
sections, adaptation sections seem to be soft obligations.
175 countries including India ratified Paris Agreement. As we mentioned

earlier, unlike the divisive Kyoto Protocol, all parties required to submit
relevant documents with regard to GHG mitigation and adaptation measures
to counter adverse effects of climate change as per Paris Agreement at 297
Introduction to
Global Climate regular intervals. 189 states/countries covering over 95% of global emissions
Change have submitted nationally determined contributions in the context of Paris
Agreement. The Paris Agreement has aspired to address adverse effects of
climate change by stabilizing temperature rise (‘well below 2°C’ and to
aspire to 1.5°C). As we mentioned earlier, each state/country must report to
their efforts to combat GHG emissions or mitigation measures in every five
years.
Agreement provides autonomy to the states/countries to decide on their own

to address climate change. But their successive efforts must be progressive
one compared to previous ones. There are three important components in the
Paris agreement. Firstly, states/countries must take transparent measures to
address or mitigate climate change and their agreed contribution. Secondly,
there will be global stock taking process which will be assessed periodically
to recognize collective progress towards the Agreement’s long-term goals.
Thirdly, there will be a compliance system that facilitates member
states/countries. It was recognized by the previous studies that the measures
taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change might affect human rights. First
of its kind, Paris Agreement accepted the relationship between climate
change and human rights like right to life, right to health, right to food, and
right to housing, with marked departure from earlier climate change
instruments. It contained explicit reference. In addition to this,
states/countries need to formulate necessary laws to improve socio-economic
conditions of vulnerable to address human rights issues. Yet, until recently,
no legally binding international climate instrument explicitly recognised the
existence of intersections between human rights concerns and climate
change.
As far as India is concerned, the Paris Agreement requires India to submit its
national contribution every five years, ensuring that each contribution is a
progression on the previous one. It also requires India to report periodically
on its actions to achieve and implement its contribution. In addition, India
should ‘strive’ to submit long-term low-GHG development strategies within
which these national contributions will sit. The Paris Agreement makes India
to formulate necessary policies to address energy requirements, environment
and development. As mentioned earlier, each member states need to submit
periodically about their progress. To do the same, India must collect
quantitative data rigorously to show the progress. Qualitative data may be
helpful to recognize the impact of policies on vulnerable. Although, India
was able to reduce poverty among vulnerable considerably over plan period,
it needed to take further measures to address poverty and vulnerability in
certain geographical areas. The measure taken at this issue must be in a right
direction. India has responsibility at the international level too. With regard
to reducing GHG emissions to bring temperature at certain levels, countries
must share burden equitably. Countries like India must give voice in this
direction.
298
16.7 INDIA’S RESPONSE FRAMEWORK Atmosphere and
Climate
India is one of the fastest-growing economies of the world with deficient

energy sources to meet the growing economy. India has more than one billion
population. Out of them, 800 million people (79.9 per cent of the population)
live on less than the US $ 2 per day. More than 700 million people cook on
traditional cookstoves using crop waste and animal residue. More than 400
million people do not have access to electricity. India stands at 128th position
in the World Human Development Index. Further, the rural population is
more vulnerable to climate variability as they have low adaptive capacity
concerning extreme and fluctuating weather condition. The IPCC assessment
report reveals the following:
• Increase in rainfall over the Indian sub-continent by 6-8 per cent.

• Extreme rise of maximum and minimum temperature is expected in the
West Coast of India and West Central India.
• Heat spell has become common in Northern India.
• There were around 15 significant droughts in the past 50 years, which
affected the productivity of rain-fed crops in drought years.
• Food security is under threat due to the occurrence of drought and flood,
and variability in the climate.
The adverse impact of climate change has already threatened the existing
livelihood in India, for which India has undertaken various sectoral
mitigation measures to contribute towards the objectives of United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). India’s development
plan is based on the primary principle of sustainability, along with inclusive
economic growth. There have been initiatives taken in sectors like coal and
oil, renewable energy, hydropower, social energy, energy efficiency and
conservation, transport, agriculture, power sector, and so on. The broad areas
where the adaptation measures have been carried out include:
• Crop Improvement
• Drought Proofing
• Health
• Risk financing
• Disasters management
• Livelihood Preservation
16.8 NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE

CHANGE
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) was formulated and
released on 30th June, 2008. The guiding principles for NAPCC are given
below: 299
Introduction to
Global Climate • Formulation of inclusive, climate change policies by protecting the rights
Change of the poor and vulnerable;
• Achieving national growth objectives by taking measures in a definite

direction that must address ecological sustainability which further
address greenhouse gas mitigation;
• Devising efficient and cost-effective strategies for end use demand side
management;
• Developing and deploying appropriate technologies for both adaptation

and mitigation of greenhouse gases emission extensively at an
accelerated pace;
• Encouraging all stakeholders to develop a new and innovative forms of

market, regulatory and voluntary mechanisms to promote sustainable
development;
• Ensuring effective implementation of programme through unique

linkages, including with civil societies and local government institutions
and through public-private partnership;
• Encouraging international cooperation for research, development,

sharing and transfer of technologies enabled by additional funding and a
global IPR regime that facilitates technology transfer to developing
countries under UNFCCC.
Based on the above-mentioned guiding principles, the Government of India

has developed eight National Missions.
1) National Solar Mission (NSM);

2) National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE);
3) National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (MNSH);
4) National Water Mission (NWM);
5) National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE);
6) National Mission for a Green India (GIM);
7) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA); and
8) National Mission on Strategic knowledge for Climate Change
(NMSKCC).
These missions will be implemented through different ministries based on

their subject matter. Apart from ministries assigned to the task, Ministry of
Finance, Planning Commission, experts from industry, academics and civil
society will be part of the mission. The institutional structure depends upon
task allocated for particular mission. Each ministry implements the mission
by formulating necessary policies and programmes and develop detailed
mission document which will be placed in the individual ministry website.
300 We will discuss mission goals, strengths and weaknesses.
National Solar Mission Atmosphere and
Climate
Mission has ambitiously targeted to generate considerable percentage of solar
power by each state in India individually and country as a whole. The
Mission’s Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) and auction process has
brought fair degree of transparency and accountability to the process.
According to the reports, the mission could able to achieve a substantial
amount of work in the Phase I. The Mission has failed to recognize the
potential off-grid generation which might helpful for poor and vulnerable.
India is implementing various sustainable development programmes from
first five-year plan period onwards. The success of solar water heater scheme
of Ministry of Non-Conventional and Renewable Energy in 1990s in the
State of Karnataka and Maharashtra might be notable example for emulation.
• The National Solar Mission aims at generating 20,000 MW of solar

power by 2022.
• The Mission also has other targets: 2000 MW of off-grid solar plants,
and 20 million square meters of solar collectors to be installed. In
addition, 20 million solar lighting systems will be created/distributed in
rural areas, saving about 1 billion litres of Kerosene every year.
National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE)
The mission has introduced innovative measures like Perform, Achieve and
Trade (PAT), Super-Efficient Equipment Programme (SEEP), and Market
Transformation for Energy Efficiency (MTEE). The mission has made
available necessary funds to achieve targets like Partial Risk Guarantee Fund
(PRGF) and Venture Capital Fund for Energy Efficiency (VCFEE). The
mission target was not holistic rather it targets only sub-sectors. It
concentrates only on large scale industries.
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (MNSH)
Mission plan was integrated with already existing plan Jawaharlal Nehru
Urban Renewal Mission and tried to bring smart cities with energy efficient
components. Mission must integrate their ideas by using bottom-up approach
to the planning and all its planning should be from stakeholders’ perspective.
National Water Mission (NWM)
Mission affirms to bring comprehensive data base on the existing water

sources. Study must be conducted on the relationship between water and
climate change. Identifying existing water sources and restoring and
rejuvenating with the help of communities are significant.
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE)
The mission aims to evolve policy and management strategies for protecting
and sustaining the Himalayan Mountain ecosystem including Himalayan
glaciers. Further, it aims to establish “an observational and monitoring 301
Introduction to
Global Climate network” to assess the resources and ecosystem health of Himalayan
Change ecosystem. The mission recognises the importance of the Himalayas in
sustaining large number of people and serves as an opportunity to promote a
mountain-driven rather than plains-driven approach. Poor and vulnerable
people are directly affected by the deforestation, depletion of natural
resources and the construction of dams.
National Mission for a Green India (GIM)
The overarching target of the GIM is to double the area to be taken up for
afforestation/eco-restoration in India in the next 10 years, taking the total area
to be afforested or eco-restored to 20 million ha. This would increase the
above and below ground biomass in 10 million ha of forests/ecosystems,
resulting in increased carbon sequestration of 43 million tons CO2e annually.
Mission has ambitious plan to regulate and institutionalize local community
level institutions. Mission will identify best practices and same will be used
as learning sites.
Key features of GIM include:
• Increasing the quality of our forest cover by increasing the cover and
density of our medium density and degraded forests.
• Taking a holistic view of forestry, and not merely focus on plantations to

meet carbon sequestration targets.
• Focusing on decentralization and involving existing local governance

institutions. Forests are the main source of livelihood to over 200 million
people in India and hence GIM will actively try to secure the
participation of local communities.
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
Mission understood the problems faced by country especially agriculture

sector with regard to climate change. But mission failed to understand the
problems of marginal and small farmers. Identifying and scaling up of
agriculture based on agro-climatic zone is important. The mission fails to
address fuel and fertiliser shortages. In the era of post-globalization and
mechanization of agriculture, the sector altogether faces different kinds of
problem.
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

(NMSKCC)
It is significant to encourage all stakeholders to do research on long-term

consequences of climate change. Knowledge gap and the impact of socio-
economic changes must be identified through research.
302
Check Your Progress 2 Atmosphere and
Climate
1) What is GIM? Explain its key features.
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2) What are the eight missions under National Action Plan on Climate
Change (NAPCC)?
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16.9 STATE GOVERNMENTS’ EFFORTS TO

ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE: STATE
ACTION PLAN
The central government formulated NAPCC and requested all State
governments to formulate State Action plan on Climate change (SAPCC). In
2009, the Government of India notified state governments to come up with
their own climate change policies related to mitigation and adaptation. The
plans and actions should be aligned with their respective state priorities as
well as the NAPCC goals. Hence, the State Action Plan on Climate Change
(SAPCC) in India is the most notable policy reflecting the nature of
decentralized climate change mitigation framework of the country.
The State governments need to take following steps before implementing

“State Action Plan on Climate Change”. It required to seek prior approval
from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)
before implementation of activities listed therein. For implementation of
SAPCCs, a combined budgetary requirement of INR 11.32 lakh crores (USD
188.66 billion) has been received by the ministry (MoEFCC, 2014). Ministry
will scrutinize the proposal and disburse the required amount as per needs of
the State governments. However, States may receive all necessary help from
the centre to implement their plans to achieve national targets and priorities
related to climate change. 303
Introduction to
Global Climate India has vast geographical area having varied agro-climatic conditions. It is
Change important to formulate policies by considering all these factors. Central
government broadly frame the policies and state and local governments make
necessary changes in the same to suit their local conditions and implement
the same within the decentralized framework of mitigation strategies. India as
mentioned earlier is a federal State and always involves every level of
governance structure for a critical policy intervention. Delivery of services
and implementation will be effective only if all are involved in it. With
regard to climate change policy, disaggregated climate data clearly indicates
that the vulnerabilities and opportunities will be well understood at the state
and local level than at the country level. Through states, national policies
reach to a large number of sectors and actors effectively while addressing
state priorities at the same time. In addition, measurement and monitoring at
the state level can be taken up more efficiently. For this reason, many of the
national policies in India are implemented through the states. Some other
standalone programmes like renewable purchase obligations, implementation
of feed-in-tariffs, setting up of state energy conservation funds,
implementation of small and hybrid hydroelectric systems and energy
conservation building codes are some of the examples of policies that are
implemented through the states. Almost all of these now come together
within the larger umbrella of the state action plans.
It is significant for the learners to remember the following points related to

policies.
• The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change requested all

Indian States to develop action plans by defining their activities and
programmes to be undertaken with the aim of adaptation and mitigation
in consonance with the objectives of NAPCC.
• The objectives of the NAPCC were to ensure sustainable development in

the country. It will provide guidance to formulate necessary policies in a
sustainable manner in future. This can be achieved only through the
active support of State and local governments. Hence, the Government
of India has encouraged the State Governments to develop
State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC).
• SAPCCs would address the need of the country as well as provide

direction to achieve the same. It would help identify measures that
promote our development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for
addressing climate change effectively.
• It wants to advance India’s development and climate change-related

objectives of adaptation and mitigation.
• GIZ and other organizations such as the United Nations Development

Programme (UNDP), UK Department for International development and
The World Bank are providing technical assistance to the interested
304 Indian States in the development of SAPCC.
• The State-level plans are not only important for implementation of the Atmosphere and
NAPCC, but also inclusion of particular regional and local Climate
characteristics and specific concerns of vulnerable sectors and

communities within each State. Let’s now see few examples.
16.9.1 Tamil Nadu

The State of Tamil Nadu in order to further their proactive measures against
climate change; and in response to National Action Plan on Climate Change
(NAPCC), established the Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell
(TNSCCC). It has also established web portal to disseminate information.
The cell has visualized for building the capacity of all the stakeholders to
respond climate change with various measures. It has a vision to make the
state resilient. It has planned to collect necessary data and analyse the same to
disseminate scientific information among farmers’, fishermen, general public,
policy planners’, decisions makers’, bureaucrats’ and others. The important
scientific contribution to address climate change was the development of
“ClimaRice”. “ClimaRice” is indeed an “Intercontinental collaborative
project” entitled “Climate Change and persistent Droughts: Impact,
vulnerability and adaptation in rice growing sub-divisions in India”. Through
this project, climate change impacts on Cauvery Basin of Tamil Nadu, which
is drought prone have been investigated both in the current and projected
climate scenarios. Eventually, a series of adaptation measures have been
developed with an aim of sustaining the production in the Cauvery Basin.
The strategies suggested as part of the project to address climate change in

the Cauvery basin are:
• Creating awareness among farmers’ and other stakeholders to do

minimum tillage to retain soil carbon content;
• Strategies to develop and promote the “use of drought and flood tolerant
varieties”;
• Promoting the crop rotation practices that augment soil productivity;
• Short duration pulse crops are recommended as relay crop, which would
enrich the soil with nitrogen, improve soil fertility, and reduce
dependence on the chemical fertilizers and pesticides;
• Encouraging the use of quality inputs like quality seeds, and market
intelligence;
• Encouraging the farmers to grow green manure crops, and use

biofertilizers;
• Introduction of modified cultivation methods such as “System of Rice

Intensification”; and
• Promotion of crop residue retention on soil to build up soil biomass.

305
Introduction to
Global Climate The broad strategies for climate change adaptation in agriculture and
Change horticulture sector in Tamil Nadu are given in the box 16.1.
Box 16.1: Broad strategies for climate change adaptation in agriculture

and horticulture sectors in Tamil Nadu
• Sowing is recommended to be in consonance with the onset of South-

west and North- east monsoons;
• Soil erosion must be managed through measures such as minimum

tillage, mulching, etc.;
• Soil health and soil nutrient content may be improved through soil-test
based Integrated Nutrient Management;
• Promotion of Integrated Pest and Disease Management;
• Water-use efficiency can be improved through methods such as drip,

sprinkler irrigation, etc.;
• System of Rice Intensification (SRI) can double or triple current rice

yields;
• Emphasis must be on to develop and introduce new crop varieties that

are tolerant to high temperature and water stress;
• “Crop Diversification” is recommended to augment the livelihoods;
• Integrated Farming System is recommended to utilize the farm

resources efficiently.
• Risk Mitigation Measures such as compulsory crop insurance are

recommended to compensate for the crop losses due to extreme
weather events;
• Supply of quality agricultural inputs;
• Capacity building on latest agricultural technologies;
• “Rain water management practices at household and landscape level”;
• “Institute a long-term rice varietal development program to make

available new rice varieties and conserving local gene pool through
public-private partnership, and actively engaging local farmers,
women, and other local agencies in the process”.
• “Help farmers adopt tailored farming practices including soil nutrient

management, choice of crop and cultivars, and pests and disease
management as per the suitability/potential of different agro-climatic
zones based on weather-based advisories derived from climate
analysis of the local area and forecasting which includes probable
occurrence of pests and disease”.
306
• “Support research on weather-based crop insurance schemes to cover Atmosphere and
Climate
risks of increasing intensities and frequencies of extreme weather
events. The challenge is to develop a weather-based index to simplify
the insurance claims and payment procedures”.
Reference:http://www.environment.tn.gov.in/doc/TNSAPCC%20PDF/Chapt
er%205%20Sustainable%20Agriculture%20.pdf ; Government of Tamil
Nadu. 2013. State Action Plan on Climate Change. Chennai: Government of
Tamil Nadu.
16.9.2 Delhi
Cities in India are expected to grow with approximately additional 500
million populations. In this transition, governments at all levels especially
city government need to equip themselves to address the needs of population
in the areas of physical infrastructure, social infrastructure, housing, water,
public transportation, health, education, sewage system and solid waste
management. Cities, especially mega cities in India with high concentration
of population are at risk from the impact of climate and related issues.
Delhi, the capital of India, with geographical area of 1483 square km with
high air pollution has developed specific agenda to address and combat
climate change. Delhi face threat from climate change and related issues on
infrastructure, human lives, human health, personal property, environmental
quality and future prosperity. Delhi has introduced a Delhi Climate Change
Agenda (2009–2012) by incorporating actions to address the issues raised in
the Prime Minister’s National Action Plan on Climate Change. Delhi
Government’s agenda aims to reduce Delhi’s carbon footprint by identifying
65 set of action points. These actions will be addressed by taking appropriate
measures at the policy level by the various departments of Delhi government.
For example, the government of Delhi introduced compressed natural gas
(CNG) fuelled buses for public transport by replacing existing diesel fuelled
buses. Delhi government with the help of central government implemented
Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNURM) in 2005 itself to address
issues related to urban development. But these schemes should be integrated
with climate adaptation, mitigation and climate change related risk
management.
Delhi cabinet has decided to upgrade energy efficiency of existing

government buildings through retrofitting which are to be carried out by
energy service companies in a performance contracting mode. The objective
is to ensure that the government buildings can achieve at least rating of one
star from BEE under their office building labelling programme. Delhi
government is also considering the installation of energy efficient water and
wastewater treatment operations and methane recovery and reuse for a CDM
project.
307
Introduction to
Global Climate 16.9.3 JHARKHAND
Change
Jharkhand has area coverage of 79,714 square km. Jharkhand has 24
administrative districts. Ranchi is the state capital as well as an industrial
city. It has rich physiographic characteristics. The rivers Swarnrekha, Koyal,
Shankh and Damodar flow through the State and are utilized for irrigation in
many places in the State. Jharkhand has around 40 per cent of the country’s
mineral resources such as coal, iron ore, copper, uranium, mica, bauxite,
granite, limestone, silver, graphite, magnetite and dolomite. It possesses
about 40 per cent of the country’s mineral wealth. 11 per cent to the State’s
GSDP comes from mining and quarrying activities. The State mineral
reserves include coal, iron ore, bauxite, copper, mica, graphite, manganese,
lead, silver, uranium and limestone. The State exports minerals to
Bangladesh, Nepal, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. As regards the measures
with respect to climate change mitigation, the state has proposed a scheme
called Jharkhand Solar Policy (2015).
Jharkhand Solar Policy 2015
The objective of the scheme is to encourage participation of private sector to

set up solar power-based projects in the State and increase solar power
generation to 2500 MW by the year 2020 in a phased manner.
The Jharkhand Renewable Energy Development Agency (JREDA) was

incorporated as a society in the year 2001 for promoting use of renewable
energy sources in the state. Being a nodal agency, JREDA is working for
implementation of fiscal and financial incentives made available by
the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Sources (MNRES), Govt. of
India and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA).
16.10 ASSESSMENT OF STATE ACTION PLANS

ON CLIMATE CHANGE
This section broadly assesses the existing State Action Plans to address
climate change. India has to prepare detailed nation-wide project for 15 agro-
climatic zones with varying vulnerabilities. By considering the vastness and
varying agro-climatic zones, central government made all States to
participate actively to address climate change by assessing their own
vulnerabilities. It needs to prepare detailed plan document on par with
NAPCC. It needs to identify projects and prepare budgeting and monitoring
mechanisms. State governments have freedom to involve local self-
governments to implement projects related to climate change. This exercise
was considered as one of the biggest in the world. The State Action
Committees submitted 32 plan proposals to the Union Ministry of
Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC). The Common
framework document for SAPCCs circulated by MoEF&CC requires States
to assess “the physical and economic impact of and vulnerability to climate
308 change on the most vulnerable sectors and vulnerable groups”. This is very
important to plan, adopt and implement mitigation strategies. For example, Atmosphere and
States like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Orissa, West Climate
Bengal and Andhra Pradesh have long coast lines. These States are
vulnerable to frequent cyclone and flood. Fishermen and cities close to
coastal areas get affected by the unexpected monsoons. It is necessary for
these states to assess vulnerability of fishermen and others who are directly
depended on sea for their livelihoods. The analysis of Centre for Science and
Environment (CSE) shows that “the SAPCCs submitted by most states lack
detailed vulnerability assessments. Some are so broad and general that they
risk overlooking specific local issues, while others like Gujarat, Odisha and
Tamil Nadu have assessed their vulnerability based on a few projects.
SAPCCs of Mizoram and Uttarakhand do not even mention vulnerability
assessment”. According to the report prepared by CSE, the Uttarakhand State
has conducted several consultations among civil society groups and
academics to recognize the severity of climate vulnerabilities. The result of
the consultation was missing in the report. Punjab conducted stakeholder
consultation for preparing its SAPCC. Mizoram neither held consultations
with civil society nor vulnerable communities. Some have adopted
international and national level models and used the same to assess and
prepare vulnerabilities. But these models have their own limitations with
respect to projects, region or State specific changes and vulnerabilities.
India’s climate system is monsoon driven. States must plan adaptation and
mitigation strategies according to climate change projection scenarios.
According to CSE analysis, “Mizoram and Odisha lack climate projections in
their SAPCCs, while others, including Gujarat, rely on climate models used
by the UK. Madhya Pradesh made mid-century and end-century projections
based on secondary data collected from various sources. CSE researchers
found that the states are depending on secondary sources due to lack of
domestic climate models. The outcomes of such projections based on flawed
models have a degree of uncertainty as climate change impact is highly local
in nature” (Down to Earth, 2018).
The next comes finance. The States have no clarity about financing. It has
assumption that the central government or international organization would
provide required finance to implement their projects. States like Madhya
Pradesh demanded Rupees 4,700 crores, while Tamil Nadu demanded more
than Rupees 400,000 crores. Gujarat allocated around 80 per cent to the water
sector. Most states do not depict the true picture of their vulnerability in the
SAPCC document and the required steps that need to be taken to enhance
their adaptive capacity and reduce their vulnerability to climate change
extremes. The documents lack mentioning the effective monitoring and
evaluation institutions for the project implemented to address climate change.
States such as Kerala and Uttarakhand, are in the process of revising their
SAPCCs to meet their domestic and international objectives after recognising
the inadequacy in the existing document. “The state of Mizoram has initiated
a ninth mission on health, in addition to the eight national-level missions for
309
Introduction to
Global Climate climate change. The state government is of the opinion that health is one of
Change the major climate change impacts and hence has included it as an additional
mission. The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) is
funding a project to augment livelihood of rural communities by building
resilience in agriculture. The project is being implemented by the state
agriculture department and is currently in its third year” (Down to Earth,
2018).
1) Write short note on the policies of the State of Tamil Nadu to mitigate
climate change.
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
2) What is State Action Plan on Climate Change?
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………
16.11 LET US SUM UP

The climate change is the biggest threat in the 21st century. The international
scientific community urged the world to stabilize the level of emissions in the
atmosphere in order to avoid future potential impact. In doing so, the
countries have proposed several international summits to discuss climate
change and to find solution to the problems of climate change. This process is
started in the year 1988 in Toronto as a World Conference on Changing
Atmosphere. The conference recommends reducing carbon dioxide emission
by 20 %. In the same year Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) met in Geneva and assessed the state of scientific knowledge on
climate change, evaluated its impact and brought realistic solution. The first
IPCC report was published in the year 1990. All these events led to the world
community to conduct series of climate conferences. Further, we have
studied about Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
310
Through this unit, we have discussed that India has taken a firm and Atmosphere and
reasonable stand towards climate change negotiations. The State Action Plan Climate
on Climate Change (SAPCC) and its impact too discussed in the unit.
16.12 KEY WORDS

International Organization: Organization which presents at international
level with scope of dealing issues among nations.
Niti Aayog: It is a premier think tank of Government of India to provide

critical knowledge for policy formulation.

READING/REFERENCES
Agarwal, S. and Pahuja, N. (2015).Green Growth and Climate Change
Mitigation in India. New Delhi: TERI.
Anderson, James E. (1975). Public Policy-Making, Praeger, New York.
Atapattu, Sumudu (2008) “Climate change, Equity and Differentiated

Responsibilities: Does the Present Climate Regime Favor Developing
Countries?”.Presented in the Conference on “Climate Law in Developing
Countries post-2012: North and South Perspectives” University of Ottawa:
IUCN Law Academy.
Basu, K. 2008. The enigma of India’s arrival: A review of Arvind Virmani’s

Propelling India: From socialist stagnation to global power’.Journal of
Economic Literature 46, no. 2: 396–406.
Bodansky, Daniel (2001) “The History of Global Climate Change Regime”

in International Relations and Global Climate Change, Urs Luterbacher,
Detlef F. Sprinz (edts). Massachusetts: MIT.
Byravan, S and Rajan, SC. (2012). An Evaluation of India’s National Action

Plan on Climate Change. Chennai: Centre for Development Finance (CDF),
IFMR, and Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Madras.
www.indiaclimatemissions.org.
Falkner, Robert, Hannes Stephan and John Vogler (2010) “International

climate policy after Copenhagen: Towards a ‘building blocks’ approach”.
Global Policy, Vol. 1(3).
Government of Tamil Nadu. (2013). State Action Plan on Climate Change.

Chennai: Government of Tamil Nadu.
Houghton, John (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing.New York:

Cambridge University Press
311
Introduction to
Global Climate IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of
Change Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri,
R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of

Kennedy, Loraine. (2014). The Politics of Economic Restructuring in India

Economic governance and state spatial restructuring. New York: Routledge.
Levin K and Bradley R. (2009). Comparability of Annex 1 Emission

Reduction Pledges, WRI Working paper, World Resources Institute,
Washington.
Mehrotra, S. (2014). From 5 million to 20 million a year: The Challenge of
scale, quality and relevance in India’s TVET. UNESCO
IBE.DOI.10.1007/s11125-014-9305-2.
Meinshausen, M. (2005). On The Risk of Overshooting 20C. Scientific
Symposium on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Met Office, Exeter,
UK.
MoEF (2010). Taking on Climate Change: post Copenhagen Domestic
Action. Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of India, India.
MoEFCC (2018). India: Second Biennial Update Report to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of
Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India.
Narain, S., Ghosh, P., Saxena, N.C., Parikh, J. and Soni, P. (2009). Climate
Change Perspectives from India. New Delhi: UNDP India.
Parikh, Jyoti K. and Kirit Parikh (2002) “Climate Change: India’s
Perceptions, positions, policies, and possibilities”. OECD.
Poornima.M. (2017). Policy Formulation and Development: New Delhi:
Indira Gandhi National Open University.
http://egyankosh.ac.in//handle/123456789/6982
Rajamani L (2016). The 2015 Paris Agreement: Interplay between Hard, Soft
and Non-Obligations. Journal of Environmental Law. 28 (2): 337-358.
Rattani, V., Venkatesh, S., Pandey, K., Jitendra, Kukreti, I., Somvanshi, A.,
Sangomla, A. (2018). India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change needs
desperate repair. Down to Earth. October 16-31.
Ravindranath, N.H. (2010). The Copenhagen Accord.Current Science.
Volume 98 (6):751-753.
Sharma, Divya and Sanjay Tomar. (2010). Mainstreaming Climate Change

312 Adaptation in India Cities. Environment and Urbanization.International
Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). 451 Vol 22(2): 451–465. Atmosphere and
DOI: 10.1177/0956247810377390 Climate
Web Links
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8421910.stem
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/atmospheric-greenhouse-
gas-concentrations/atmospheric-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-assessment-3
http://www.environment.tn.gov.in/doc/TNSAPCC%20PDF/Chapter%205%2
0Sustainable%20Agriculture%20.pdf
http://www.globalbioenergy.org/uploads/media/0809_UNDP_The_Bali_actio
n_plan_key_issues_in_the_climate_negotiations.pdf.
http://www.unesco.org/education/pdf/RIO_E.PDF.
https://egyankosh.ac.in/handle/123456789/53810
https://unfccc.int/cop7/documents/accords_draft.pdf.
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-
disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/
www.usclimatenetwork.org/policy/copenhagen-accord-commitments#note10
www.voanews.com/english/news/india-satified-with-copenhagen-
climatesummit-79888187.html

1) The key issues discussed at Copenhagen summit are as follows:
• Continuing negotiations of Kyoto protocol.

• Making governments to commit midterm GHG emissions reduction.
• Developing, monitoring, reporting and verification methods.
• Funding for adaptation and mitigation.
• Transferring technology to the developing countries.
2) India’s expectation from Copenhagen summit 313

Introduction to
Global Climate • International cooperation should be there to combat climate change.
Change
• The outcome of the negotiations in the Copenhagen should be fair
and equitable. It must be in accordance with the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities as per 1992 Rio declaration.
• Summit should provide a space to accelerate socio-economic
development in order to eradicate poverty through ecologically
sustainable manner.
1) GIM means Green India Mission. Key features of GIM include:
• Increasing the quality of our forest cover by increasing the cover and
density of our medium density and degraded forests.
• Taking a holistic view of forestry, and not merely focus on
plantations to meet carbon sequestration targets.
• Focusing on decentralization and involving existing local
governance institutions. Forests are the main source of livelihood to
over 200 million people in India and hence GIM will actively try to
secure the participation of local communities.
2) The eight National Missions under National Action Plan on Climate

Change are as follows:
• National Solar Mission (NSM);

• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE);
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (MNSH);
• National Water Mission (NWM);
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
(NMSHE);
• National Mission for a Green India (GIM);
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA); and
• National mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
(NMSKCC).
1) The State of Tamil Nadu in order to further their proactive measures

against climate change; and in response to National Action Plan on
Climate Change (NAPCC), established the Tamil Nadu State Climate
Change Cell (TNSCCC). It has also established web portal to
disseminate information. The cell has visualized for building the capacity
of all the stakeholders to respond climate change with various measures.
It has planned to collect necessary data and analyse the same to
314 disseminate scientific information among farmers’, fishermen, general
public, policy planners’, decisions makers’, bureaucrats’ and others. The Atmosphere and
important scientific contribution to address climate change was the Climate
development of “ClimaRice”. “ClimaRice” is indeed an “Intercontinental

collaborative project” entitled “Climate Change and persistent Droughts:
Impact, vulnerability and adaptation in rice growing sub-divisions in
India”. Through this project, climate change impacts on Cauvery Basin
of Tamil Nadu, which is drought prone have been investigated both in
the current and projected climate scenarios. A series of adaptation
measures have been developed with an aim of sustaining the production
in the Cauvery Basin.
2) Government of India formulated NAPCC and requested all State

governments to formulate State Action plan on Climate change
(SAPCC). In 2009, the Government of India notified state governments
to come up with their own climate change policies related to mitigation
and adaptation. The plans and actions should be aligned with their
respective state priorities as well as the NAPCC goals. The State Action
Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) in India is the most notable policy
reflecting the nature of decentralized climate change mitigation
framework of the country. SAPCCs would address the need of the
country as well as provide direction to achieve the climate change
mitigation and adaptation.
315

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MEVE 011

Indira Gandhi National Open University

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

School of Interdisciplinary and Trans-disciplinary Studies

BLOCK PREPARATION TEAM

FORMAT AND LANGUAGE EDITORS

BLOCK 1 INTRODUCTION TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

We hope that you would enjoy reading the self-learning material.

1.3.3 Composition of the Atmosphere

1.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gases

1.5.2 Climate Classification

• define the atmosphere and climate;

1.3 THE ATMOSPHERE

On planet Earth, life became possible as a result of having blanket of gases

Is it good to have atmosphere on the Earth?

Fig.1.1: The layers of atmosphere.

The layer next to stratosphere is called mesosphere. It starts from about 50

c) The Thermosphere (Ionosphere)

How Aurora are formed?

1.3.2 Atmospheric Pressure

Table 1.1: Changes in Sea-level pressure (%) with Altitude

Altitude (km) Percentage of Sea-level pressure

Why do temperature and pressure decrease with height?

In the real atmosphere, the actual vertical temperature structure depends on

1.3.3 Composition of the Atmosphere

Concentrations of CO2 is generally expressed in percentages (%) as well as in

towards the formation of smog and so it’s of importance. Particulate matter

Table1.2: Constituents of the Atmosphere in % by Volume

Gas Percentage by Volume

Where, NMHCs= Non-Methane Hydrocarbons;

1.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

a) Carbon dioxide (CO2)

The atmospheric lifespan of a molecule of methane is estimated to be around

c) Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Nitrogen being dominant in share by volume, formation of nitrous oxide

anthropogenic i.e., deforestation and nitrogenous fertilizer (6Tg/year) to

Table1.3: Few examples of Halocarbons with their atmospheric lifetime

Formula Designation Atmospheric

Formation of tropospheric ozone

Aerosols having hydrophilic property support the growth of cloud droplets.

form droplets and causes increased rainfall.

Check Your Progress 1

Note: i) Use the space given below for your answers.

1) What do you know about the vertical structure of the atmosphere?

1.4 SOLAR RADIATION

Solar irradiance is measured by satellites above Earth's atmosphere, and is

Table 1.3: Important facts about the Earth-Sun System

Fig. 1.3:Position and path of Earth-Sun system

ii) Effect of Earth's spherical shape

iii) The tilt of the Earth's axis and the seasons

During Solstices, incoming radiation is perpendicular to the Earth surface on

b) Factors affecting amount of energy flux received at the Earth’s

1) The Earth's albedo

The reflectivity of a planet is referred to as the albedo and is expressed as a

properties, and the weather.

2) Effective temperature (Te)

c) A Simple Global Temperature Model

All heated objects must emit electromagnetic radiation, particularly so if they

Rate of incoming solar radiation at the Earth = SπR2 (watts).

S= the Solar Constant (1370W/m2)

R= the Radius of the Earth (m)

If the Earth’s radius is R, the area of that disk is πR2.

Heat absorbed by planet Earth= (1 - a) πR2So