TCLV1 Tropical Cyclone (TC)-Threat Potential

Initialization: 07 September (8 AM)

Date Issued: 08 September 2023

TCLV2 Validity: Valid within the forecast period, unless superseded by succeeding forecast.
TCLV1 TCLV3
TC1
Forecast Summary:
Week-1 (September 08 - 14, 2023)
• Formation of TC-like vortices (TCLVs) are predicted within the PMD.
PAR
• TCLV1 and TCLV2 are expected to emerge over the Luzon Strait with a low to moderate
TCAD
TC2 likelihood of TC formation.
TCID • TCLV3 is forecast to form within the eastern portion of TCID with a low to moderate probability
of TC genesis.

Week-2 (September 15 - 21, 2023)

• The development of TCLVs remain likely over week-2.
LPA1 • TCLV4 will likely form over the northwestern boundary of the PMD with a low to moderate
chance of cyclogenesis.
• TCLV5 will develop over the northeastern portion of the PMD with a low likelihood of TC
TCLV5 genesis.

• With the possible developments of TCLVs distant from the landmass,

TCLV4 there is NO TC-THREAT POTENTIAL in the next two weeks.

However, any changes in the forecast pattern will be closely monitored, and updates will be issued as
needed.

PAR Note: The information contained here is based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEP-GEFS issued in the past 24 hours where the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) TC
TCAD
TCLV3 Tracking algorithm was applied. This product was part of the collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECO VOTE Project. This is for guidance
purposes only.
TCID
For Weather Updates, kindly refer to: www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather

PMD: PAGASA Monitoring Domain TCAD: Tropical Cyclone Advisory Domain

PAR: Philippine Area of Responsibility TCID: Tropical Cyclone Information Domain

Low: Less chance of formation

Moderate: Has a chance of formation
High: Higher chance of formation Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Active TC: Existing TC inside the PMD Prepared by: CAD-CLIMPS-Contact us @Tel no:(02)8284-0800 loc. 4920/4921 or Email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com
 Tropical Cyclone Climatological Tracks
for September in the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR)

Climatological tracks for the month of

September suggest 4 most common tracks:

1 1. Recurving TCs in the north-eastern part of

PAR (non-landfalling) moving towards
Japan or Korea (less likely to enhance SW
Monsoon activity during passage)

2. Recurving TCs towards the northwestern

part of PAR (non-landfalling) moving
2 towards Taiwan (may enhance SW
Monsoon activity during passage)
4
3. Landfalling TCs traversing northern and
3 extreme northern Luzon; moving towards
Hongkong or China

4. Landfalling TCs traversing the southern

parts of Luzon; moving towards Vietnam