Figure 3.

1
Quasi-Correlations by Region1,2
Median Quasi-Correlations by Region1
(Excluding crisis periods)
Intra-Asia China supply-chain economies Full sample Intra-ASEAN-5 (RHS) 1990s 2000s
4.0 9 0.8
3.5 8 0.7
3.0 7 0.6
6 0.5
2.5
5 0.4
2.0
4
0.3
1.5
3
0.2
1.0
2
0.1
0.5 1
0.0
0.0 0
-0.1
-0.5 -1 Intra-Asia ASEAN-5 China supply- Intra-euro Intra-emerging Intra-Latin Full sample
chain area 11 Europe America
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bilateral Pearson Growth Correlations by Region1,2 Average Bilateral Pearson Growth Correlations
(Excluding crisis periods) (Excluding crisis periods)
1990s 2000s 1990-99 2000-12
0.70
0.8
0.7 0.50
0.6
0.5 0.30

0.4 0.10
0.3
0.2 -0.10

0.1
-0.30
0.0
ASEAN-5

ASEAN-5

ASEAN-5

ASEAN-5
Full sample

Full sample

Full sample

Full sample
Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia
-0.1
-0.2
Intra-Asia ASEAN-5 China supply- Intra-euro Intra-emerging Intra-Latin Full sample
chain area 11 Europe America China Japan United States Euro Area
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.
1
China supply-chain economies include China, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan Province of China, and Thailand. They are identified based on the intensity of their trade linkages (in
value-added terms). Unlike the usual (Pearson) correlation coefficient, which has to be computed over a time interval, the quasi-correlation can be calculated at any point in time. For a given
pair of countries i and j, it is equal to the product of deviations of growth rates in i and j from their sample averages, divided by the product of standard deviations of growth rates in i and j
over the sample. For details, see Duval and others, 2014. Crisis periods are years 1998 and 2009.
2
Euro area includes the 11 countries that adopted the euro in 1999.