https://youtu.

be/8flDlixo4KA : link to the song wild gilbert by lovindeer

History of Hurricanes and Floods in Jamaica

Between the beginning of the hurricane season in June until the end of the season in November, an
average of ten (10) tropical storms are formed, some of which develop into hurricanes. Therefore,
countries within the hurricane zone, including Jamaica have been subject to the effects of this
destructive force. The records of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica show that hurricanes are a
recurring threat to Jamaica and the heavy winds and rains associated with these natural disasters
have often left Jamaica with lingering effects like flooding and landslides. The earliest reference to a
hurricane in Jamaica dates back to 1559, when a hurricane caused severe damage to the island’s
infrastructure. Highlighted below are some hurricanes/tropical storms that have affected Jamaica
since the 18th century
What were the causes of the past event
The seventh named storm and third hurricane of the 1988 Atlantic hurricane season, Gilbert
developed from a tropical wave on September 8 while located 400 mi (640 km) east of
Barbados. ... Gilbert then weakened slightly, and made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula
later that day while maintaining Category 5 intensity.

Figure 1 CLASSIFICATION OF HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT

Figure 2 SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE (SSH)

How a hurricane is formed

7 Facts About Hurricanes In Jamaica
The hurricane season lasts from June to November. Jamaica, along with several
other Caribbean islands and mainland territories, falls into what is commonly
understood to be the Atlantic hurricane belt, meaning that these countries often
experience the effects of storm systems during the hurricane season.

What were the effects

The tin roofs that covered most homes were no match for the winds–about 80 percent of the
island's homes were seriously damaged and approximately 500,000 of the country's 2 million people
were left homeless.

However, Gilbert was the strongest hurricane to directly impact Jamaica,

leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. For those who may be too young
to remember, Gilbert came on Monday at about 9 a.m. on September 12,
1988. When it left, Jamaica was in shambles, struggling to comes to terms
with the damage it had wrought.

With winds reaching 175 miles per hour, the Category 5 hurricane
devastated the island, and its span covered the entire island. Nearly
500,000 of the country’s two million people had to seek shelter at that time,
and almost every home on the island lost electricity. Jamaica suffered
about US$4 billion in damages due to Gilbert’s passage. And if it couldn’t
get worst, 45 persons are said to have lost their lives during the passage of
the hurricane.

Then-Prime Minister, Edward Seaga, is quoted as saying that the aftermath

of the passage of the hurricane was comparable to Hiroshima after the
dropping of the atomic bomb during World War 2. The agricultural industry
was devastated, and reports are that poultry became almost nonexistent
and bananas were wiped out. This led to food shortages. Luckily, other
countries came to Jamaica’s aid.
However, not everything was doom and gloom after. Singer Lloyd
Lovindeer penned a hit Wild Gilbert that became an anthem after the
hurricane left.

Even though the loss of life was limited to 45 reported deaths, 500,000 people lost their
homes when approximately 280,000 houses-almost 55 percent of the housing stock-were
damaged. Of these, 14,000, or 5 percent, were totally destroyed and 64,000 were seriously
damaged.

Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors

The Planning Institute of Jamaica estimated the total direct damage at US$956 million.
Nearly half was accounted for by losses from agriculture, tourism, and industry; 30 percent
from housing, health, and education infrastructure; and 20 percent from economic
infrastructure. The economic projections for 1988 had to be adjusted dramatically, to allow
for expected losses of US$130 million in export earnings, and more than US$100 million in
tourism earnings; therefore, instead of the expected 5 percent growth in GDP, a decline of 2
percent was projected. Other estimates were for increases in inflation (30 percent),
government public expenditures (US$200 million), and public sector deficit (from 2.8 percent
to 10.6 percent of GDP).

As expected, the economic activity most affected was agriculture, with the total destruction
of banana and broiler production and of more than 50 percent of the coffee and coconut
crops. Capital losses to the sector were estimated at J$0.7 billion. According to some
calculations, the loss of revenue through 1992 will be US$214 million.

Other productive sectors were also affected seriously. Manufacturing suffered J$600 million
(in 1989 dollars) in losses, mainly from a decline of 12 percent in its exports. Tourism lost
US$90 million in foreign exchange, with 5 percent fewer visitor arrivals in the third quarter of
1988 than during the same time period in 1987. Loss of electricity decreased bauxite
production by 14.2 percent for that quarter compared to the third quarter of the previous
year, and alumina exports declined by 21 percent.

Damage to Natural Resources

The coastal resources of Jamaica suffered extensive damage from hurricane forces. It is
estimated that 50 percent of the beaches were seriously eroded, with the northeast coast
being the most affected. An estimated 60 percent of all the trees in the mangrove areas were
lost, 50 percent of the oyster culture was unsalvageable, and other non-measurable harm
occurred to coral reefs and the water quality of the island (Bacon, 1989).
How does the past help us make sense of the present
The risk posed by hurricanes to a particular country is a function of the likelihood that a
hurricane of a certain intensity will strike it and of the vulnerability of the country to the
impact of such a hurricane. Vulnerability is a complex concept, which has physical, social,
economic and political dimensions. It includes such things as the ability of structures to
withstand the forces of a hazardous event, the extent to which a community possesses the
means to organize itself to prepare for and deal with emergencies, the extent to which a
country's economy depends on a single product or service that is easily affected by the
disaster, and the degree of centralization of public decision-making (Wilches-Chaux, 1989).

To assess future risks, planners must study historical trends and correlate them with
probable future changes. The main cause of increasing vulnerability is the population
movement to high-risk areas. Most cities in the West Indies are in low coastal zones
threatened by storm surge (Tomblin, 1979), and they continue to grow.
Once the risk posed by hurricanes is understood, specific mitigation measures can be taken
to reduce the risk to communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. Human and
economic losses can be greatly reduced through well-organized efforts to implement
appropriate preventive measures, in public awareness and in issuing timely warnings.

Mitigation measures are most cost-effective when implemented as part of the original plan or
construction of vulnerable structures. Typical examples are the application of building
standards designed for hurricane-force winds, the avoidance of areas that can be affected
by storm surge or flooding, and the planting of windbreaks to protect wind-sensitive crops.
Retrofitting buildings or other projects to make them hurricane-resistant is more costly and
sometimes impossible. Once a project is located in a flood-prone area, it may not be feasible
to move it to safer ground.

Reduction of Risk at the National Level

One of the most important steps a country can take to mitigate the impact of hurricanes is to
incorporate risk assessment and mitigation measure design into development planning. The
design of basic mitigation measures begins with the compilation of all historical records of
former hurricane activity in the country, to determine the frequency and severity of past
occurrences. Reliable meteorological data for each event, ranging from technical studies to
newspaper reports, should be gathered. With all the information in place, a study of (1) the
distribution of occurrences for months of a year, (2) frequencies of wind strengths and
direction, (3) frequencies of storm surges of various heights along different coastal sections,
and (4) frequencies of river flooding and their spatial distribution should be undertaken. The
statistical analysis should provide quantitative support for planning strategies.

The design of mitigation measures should follow the statistical analysis and consider long-
term effects. Both non-structural and structural mitigation measures should be considered,
taking into account the difficulties of implementation.

Non-structural measures consist of policies and development practices that are designed to
avoid risk, such as land use guidelines, forecasting and warning, and public awareness and
education. Much credit for the reduction of casualties from hurricanes in the Caribbean
should be given to the Pan Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project
(PCDPPP), which has worked effectively with national governments on motivating the
population to take preventive measures, such as strengthening roof tie-downs, and on
establishing forecasting and warning measures.

Structural mitigation measures include the development of building codes to control building
design, methods, and materials. The construction of breakwaters, diversion channels, and
storm surge gates and the establishment of tree lines are a few examples of mitigation from
a public works standpoint.
Fig 3

What has changed?

Climate change may affect tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of
rainfall and wind speed, a decrease in overall frequency, an increase in frequency of very
intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity
are among the possible consequences of human-induced

Times have changed, however: over the past thirty years, climate
change extremes have become more marked

What has remained the same?

.

Hurricane Gilbert slams into Jamaica, killing hundreds of people, on

September 12, 1988. The storm went on to cause death and
destruction in Mexico and spur a batch of tornadoes in Texas .
How did the people of the past view the event
Hurricane Gilbert was the seventh named storm of 1988. - Number of deaths was
low considering the intensity of the hurricane, with only 45 dead in Jamaica and
hardly any injured. In the Agricultural Sector Gilbert left 2.1billion (JMD) dollars' worth
of damage.
 1. Businessman Wayne Chen shared on Facebook:

Hurricane Gilbert hit Jamaica with sustained winds of 125 mph as

its 15 mile-wide eye moved […] across the length of the island
leaving a swathe of destruction. It produced a 19 ft storm surge and
brought up to 32 inches of rain, causing flash flooding. 49 people
died and US$700 million in damage was sustained. More than
100,000 houses were destroyed or damaged and the country's
banana crop was wiped out. Hundreds of miles of roads and
highways were heavily damaged and the electricity supply was
disrupted. The country struggled to regain normalcy, but we
prevailed and Jamaica was mostly back on track within months.

References

http://www.oas.org/dsd/publications/unit/oea66e/ch12.htm

https://www.nlj.gov.jm/history-notes/History%20of%20Hurricanes%20and%20Floods%20in
%20Jamaica.pdf