Considering Chinese-Russian military relations after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Research Advisor, Nakasone Peace Research Institute / DSEI Japan Executive Committee
Member
Jun Nagashima

Growing Caution in Japan and Europe

On June 17, 2022, seven Russian naval vessels moving southward in the Pacific passed
near the Izu Islands, and at the same time, two missile destroyers of the Chinese People's
Liberation Army (hereinafter referred to as the Chinese military) navy entered the Sea of
Japan from the Tsushima Strait, and military activities by China and Russia are becoming
active around Japan. This was the first such movement since October 2021, when ten
Chinese and Russian naval vessels made a half-circumnavigation of Japan and advanced as
far as the Pacific Ocean after joint exercises in the Sea of Japan, and Defense Minister
Kishi has expressed alarm, saying, "This is a demonstration of military presence around
Japan and could be considered a demonstration action."[i]

On 24 May 2022, Chinese H-6 bombers and Russian Tu-95 bombers joined forces in the
Sea of Japan for a joint China-Russia patrol flight to the Pacific Ocean, as if to coincide
with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) between the United States, Australia,
India and Japan. This is the fourth alert and surveillance flight between the two countries
since November 2021, and together with the joint action by naval vessels, it impresses the
steady progress of Chinese-Russian military cooperation. We must be prepared for similar
events to occur more frequently around Japan in the future, as the closer military ties
between the two countries have become irreversible following the February 4, 2022 China-
Russia summit, which confirmed that "friendship between China and Russia has no limits
and there are no prohibited areas of cooperation". We must be prepared for similar events
to occur frequently around Japan in the future.
On May 24, 2022, a Chinese bomber (H-6), which entered the Sea of Japan from the East
China Sea, joined a Russian bomber (TU-95) in the Sea of Japan for a joint flight (Courtesy
of the Joint Staff Office, Ministry of Defense)

In addition, not only in East Asia but also in Europe, there is a growing sense of caution
about the strengthening of military ties between China and Russia. This is manifested not
only in China's position as a friend of Russia, which launched a military invasion of
Ukraine, but also as concern on the European side about China's diplomatic and military
strategy. Which, through its "One Belt, One Road" strategy, is exerting influence over a
vast region including the Indian Ocean and Africa. For example, in 2015, the joint Chinese-
Russian naval exercise Joint Sea 2015 was held in the Mediterranean Sea, where the
Chinese navy, together with the Russian navy, trained naval vessels for joint operational
maneuvers. Although the Mediterranean Sea, called "mare nostrum" (our sea) in ancient
Latin, is an inland sea of historical, political, and economic importance for Europe, the
challenging moves of Chinese naval vessels, as if they were stepping into this sea with their
clay feet,[ii] were seen as having fueled a sense of crisis among European military officials.

Recently, NATO, a collective military alliance, has become increasingly wary of China as a
global destabilizing factor while Russia is the most serious and direct threat. In fact, in the
new strategic concept adopted at the NATO summit in Madrid on June 29, 2022, China will
be explicitly mentioned for the first time as a security influence on Southern Europe.

Evolving Military Cooperation

In general, joint military exercises and operational maneuvers are conducted for the purpose of high-
level military exchange, military technical exchange, and ensuring interoperability. Military exercises
between China and Russia have been symbolic of the promotion of economic, social, and security
cooperation among the participating countries, and have so far given a strong impression of being
ceremonial and obligatory. However, with the Naval Interaction (Joint Sea) 2012 bilateral naval exercise
in 2012, the two countries began to work on ensuring integrated operations and interoperability, and in
terms of command and control, the Chinese and Russian navies have begun to show qualitative
evolution, including the use of a common command and information system in 2016. And in August
2021, the large-scale "Zapad 2021" exercise by the Russian Armed Forces strengthened Chinese-Russian
interoperability on the battlefield, with China taking the lead in a wide range of areas of formation,
operations, and equipment, and other efforts toward Chinese-Russian operational integration have led to
certain achievements. Meanwhile, efforts towards multilateral military exercises began in 2019, with
South Africa and Iran participating in joint exercises between China and Russia, and mutual landing
drills of helicopters on board naval vessels and gunnery exercises were conducted off the coast of South
Africa.

Looking back at the history of military cooperation between China and Russia, it is no exaggeration to
say that since the 1990s, China has imported Russian-made weapons such as fighter jets and destroyers
on a large scale[iii] in order to promote the rapid modernization of its military, and the Chinese military
has developed while inheriting military assets from Russia. In recent years, the Russian military has
conducted military operations in the North Caucasus, Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria, and is seen as a
military with a wealth of real-world experience, including the deployment of large-scale air, land, and
special operations forces, which could provide China with many opportunities to learn.

On the other hand, effective military cooperation has been in full swing since the conclusion of the
Treaty of Peace and Cooperation with Good Neighbors in 2001 and the joint military exercise "Mission
of Peace 2005" in 2005, and it cannot be denied that the history of such cooperation is shallow.
Certainly, for the Chinese Navy, which has little experience in actual warfare, it was undoubtedly a
valuable opportunity to learn tactics from the Russian Navy through exercises such as long-range attacks
and anti-submarine operations, but the fact that the actual exercises to date have generally been
completed in about one week means that it is difficult to say whether the two sides have achieved
sufficient communication on the operational front and learned from each other. In the future, it is thought
that a great deal of time and effort will still be required to build a military cooperative posture between
China and Russia, in which the two countries realize mutual support as substantial allies and partner
countries and fight under the same command and control system in a unified manner.

Potential for a Widening Capability Gap

The economic sanctions against Russia by Western countries due to the recent Russian invasion of
Ukraine will undoubtedly cast a significant shadow over the development of the Russian economy in the
long term, especially in advanced technology, which holds the key to future growth[iv]. It means that
restrictions on exports to Russia of semiconductor products designed and manufactured in the US and
Europe will force painful structural reforms on Russia's military industry, which has been dependent on
Western semiconductors for a long time.

At present, in terms of the number of patent applications for artificial intelligence (AI), China has
overtaken the United States to become the world leader in recent years, while Russia has lagged far
behind, and it is expected that the technology gap between China and Russia in AI research and
development will widen even further in the long term[v].
[v].

In the future, the implementation of AI in existing systems and equipment is expected to play a major
key role in economic and social development, and in light of the fact that many disruptive advanced
technologies are dual-use, applicable to both military and civilian use, it is inevitable that the military
technology gap between China and Russia will widen.
In the future, if China succeeds in managing the risk of Russia suffering substantial damage to its
national interests from the current invasion of Ukraine, in terms of tensions with the Western countries
that regard Russia as a threat, there is no doubt that this will have a long-term impact on the military
relationship between China and Russia. And it is not hard to imagine that China's rapid economic
development in recent years and the evolution of military technology through military-civilian fusion
will increase the gap in military capabilities between Russia and China in the future, when a decline in
national power is inevitable[vi].

Are Chinese-Russian Military relations a “Swan Boat”?

Chinese-Russian military relations remind one of a swan boat on a lake. Swan boats are foot-powered
boats in the shape of a swan. They are popular with families and couples because they are gorgeous and
can seat two people. However, because of the size of the boat, it is difficult to steer the boat as desired, it
moves unsteadily as people fight for the steering wheel, and it is easily affected by the waves around it.

Whether the swan boat (military relations), which requires cooperation and coordination between the
two crews (China and Russia), will come to a halt due to a breakdown in stability caused by strained
relations, or whether it will move nimbly and smoothly across the lake by demonstrating greater
teamwork, is difficult to predict based on the results of joint military exercises, the effects of political,
economic, social, and other uncertainties make it impossible to predict, and joint operational actions we
have seen.

In this sense, we are called upon to analyze and verify from a multifaceted perspective, rather than
judging only superficial events, whether the relationship between China and Russia will continue to
mature into an alliance while accumulating military cooperation in a variety of fields in the future.

Conclusion:

Russia's attempts to reorganize the European security order in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, to
remove U.S. influence from Europe, and to break up NATO have resulted in a crisis of its own making,
which has led the Nordic countries of Finland and Sweden to join NATO and strengthened NATO unity.
In the long run, however, as Ukrainian President Zelensky points out, Ukraine may be just the beginning
of Russia's aggression against Europe,[vii] and Europe must continue to be wary of Russia as the
greatest threat.
 Similarly, China, which plans to unify Taiwan, is likely to remove U.S. military influence
from East Asia and increase its hegemonic military activities in Asia. Here, as long as the
strategic orientation of China and Russia as "revisionist states"[viii] that continue to
challenge the existing international order remains unchanged, Japan should deepen its ties
with Europe and continue to pay utmost attention to the strengthening of military ties
between China and Russia in East Asia. In the future, with regard to such important
questions as whether command and control is being centralized in joint warning flights and
joint maritime patrols by China and Russia, whether interoperability is evolving, and
whether joint operation of airborne warning and surveillance aircraft and airborne refueling
aircraft is taking place, a system of constant information gathering and meticulous analysis
should be maintained to It is imperative that changes be reliably detected. This is because
we believe that only through the accumulation of such steady efforts will we be able to
quickly detect and prevent a shift toward hegemonic military activities by both China and
Russia.