Transmission Planning

41st IIEE Annual 23 November 2016

National Convention SMX Convention Center
Outline
1. Restructured Electric Power
Industry
2. Transmission Planning Process
3. Planning Challenges
1. Restructured Electric
Power Industry
Traditional: Vertically Integrated
GENERATION

GENERATION

TRANSMISSION

TRANSMISSION

DISTRIBUTION 1 DISTRIBUTION 2
DISTRIBUTION
Electric Industry Reforms
1. Separation of generation and transmission
functions
2. Privatization of state-owned enterprises
3. Creation of new companies and creation of
competitive wholesale and retail markets
4. Application of performance-based
regulation (PBR) to the regulated segments
Electric Industry Reforms
Regulated
Transmission

Regulated
Distribution
Competitive
Generation

Competitive
Retail
2. Transmission Planning
Process
Need for Transmission Planning
System Reliability
Generator
Entry Power Quality

Island
Interconnection

Load
Growth
Plan Preparation
For integration
in the Philippine
Energy Plan
(PEP)

Inputs Coordination Preparation Consultation Submission

from DOE with Stakeholders of the Plan with Stakeholders to DOE

System Peak Power system simulation

Demand Forecast studies

Generation Planning criteria based

Capacity Additions on the Phil. Grid Code
System Peak Demand

13,209 MW
Total Philippines as of June 2016

Min
12%
Vis
14%
Luz
74%
Mindanao
System Peak Demand Forecast
LUZON GRID

17,500
16,442
Average Growth Rate: 4.15%
15,500

13,495
13,500
MW

11,071
11,500

8,928
9,500

7,500
2015 2020 2025 2030
Generation Capacity

17,925 MW Biomass Wind Solar

0.9% 2.1% 2.9%
Total Dependable Capacity

Geothermal
9.5%
Coal
Oil-Based 34.9%
16.8%

Hydro
Natural Gas
17.4%
15.5%

Based on DOE data (Total Philippines) as of 30 June 2016

Generation Capacity Additions
MW
Coal 2,720
Nat Gas 1,050
SMC Limay Coal Ph.1 Total 3,770
300 MW (2016/2017)

Committed Plants based on

AES Masinloc DOE List as of 30 Sep 2016
300 MW (2019)

GN Power Expansion
1,200 MW (2019/2020) SBPL Coal
500 MW (2019)
Pagbilao 3 Coal
420 MW (2017)

San Gabriel Nat Gas

450 MW (2016)

Pagbilao CC
600 MW (2017)
Generation Capacity Additions

Generation plan
is a key
component of
the transmission
planning
process
Other Planning Data

Distribution Development Plan

(DDP) – inputs from Distribution
Utilities

Per substation and per transformer

peak demand forecast –
non-coincident with the system peak
Existing Transmission Facilities
Transmission Facilities

Substation Capacity (MVA) 31,501

Transmission Lines (circuit-km) 20,053

Voltage

500 kV 982

± 350 kV 905

230 kV 5,548

138 kV 6,264

115 kV 192

69 kV 6,162

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

circuit-kilometers
Planning Methodology
(Simplified)

• Reference system configuration

1. Develop Base
• Transmission parameters
Cases
• Generator parameters

• System peak demand forecast

2. Define • Loading scenarios (peak & off-peak)
Scenarios • Generation capacity additions
• Generation dispatch scenarios

• Load flow analysis

3. Test with • Short-circuit analysis
Planning Criteria • Stability analysis
• Identification of network problems
Base Cases Modeling of power system configuration
and components in a simulation program
(e.g. PSS/E, Dig Silent):
Luzon Grid

Develop generation
dispatch and system
loading scenarios
53% of
Luzon’s load or
about

40% of the
country’s load
Planning Criteria
Planning for Redundancy:
N-1 Contingency

Thermal Loading Limits:

Normal Conditions & N-1 Contingencies:
Not exceeding 100% of the line/equipment rating

Voltage Limits:
Normal Conditions & N-1 Contingencies:
Steady-state voltage range: +/- 5% of nominal for all
voltages levels
Planning Criteria
Short-circuit limits
Fault level at all nodes shall be within
equipment rating

System Stability
The grid remains stable after a transient
disturbance or any N-1 contingency for all
forecasted load conditions
Planning Methodology
(Simplified)

• Network solutions: e.g. upgrading of

4. Technical backbone, expansion or development
Evaluation of
of new substations, or installation of
Alternatives
reactive compensation equipment

• Field investigation
6. Selection of • Preparation of conceptual design
Project • Cost estimates
• Economic evaluation

Developments
1. Market-based transmission planning
2. Probabilistic planning – scenario development & project
prioritization
 CASTILLEJOS HERMOSA
EHV
SAN JOSE EHV
Major Projects
in Luzon
MARILAO

RP ENERGY
BARAS

500 kV Backbone
MARIVELES EHV Stage by Stage Implementation
TAGUIG
EHV
DASMARINAS
EHV

SILANG

TAYABAS
ALAMINOS EHV ATIMONAN

CALACA
PAGBILAO
EHV
STA. MARIA
Legend:
500 kV line
230 kV line

SIMLONG

ILIJAN
Major Project in Visayas

Cebu-Negros-
Panay 230 kV
Backbone
Major Project in Mindanao

Mindanao
230 kV
Backbone
energization
Planning Challenges
1. Uncertainties of some inputs
2. Lead time for transmission project
construction
3. Right-of-way issues
4. Environmental concerns
5. Policy and regulations
• Transmission plans require
approval of the Department of
Energy (DOE)

• Require Energy Regulatory

Commission (ERC) approval
prior to project implementation

Transmission Development Plan

Available at www.ngcp.ph
Stronger Transmission
for a Stronger Nation

www.ngcp.ph