Assignment 1

Was 2022 hotter than 2021 at Perth?

Global warming affects everybody’s daily life. It is no doubt this warming trend also exists at Perth. In this
assignment question, you will need to search and collect temperature data around Perth and use statistic
knowledge to answer the question given above. The following website can be used (but not limit to) for
finding historical temperature data around Australia. Can you use this as evidence to support global
warming and why? (3 marks)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
(calculations need to be provided to support the answers)

Statistics Max Temp 22 Max Temp 21 Min Temp 22 Min Temp 21

Number of Sample (n) 364 363 364 363
Yearly Mean 25.14835 24.95344 13.07637363 13.18044
Yearly Standard deviation 6.394511 6.370673 5.073019654 4.888986
Yearly Variance 40.88978 40.58548 25.73552841 23.90219

Standard Error (SE) 0.473 0.370

(z) 0.412 0.282
Table 1 - Yearly Temperature Statistics

2022 : x1=25.15° C , n1=364 , s 1=6.39 ° C

202 1: x 2=2 4.95 ° C , n2=36 3 , s 2=6. 37 ° C

D0=0 , α=0.05
n1,2 >30 ∴ z test
Formation of the null hypothesis
H 0=x 1−x 2 ≤ D0

x 1−x 2 ≤ 0
The assumption is that climate change does not significantly affect the mean maximum
temperatures over a 2 year period.

Formulation of alternative hypothesis

¿ Tailed → H 1=x 1−x 2 > D0

x 1−x 2> 0

Calculation of test-statistic

√ √
2 2
s s 2
6.39 6.37
2
SE= 1 + 2 = + =0.473
n1 n2 364 363

x 1−x 2−D 0
Test Statistic → zT max =
SE

z max =0.412
Calculation of the critical z-valve

z cr =± 1.645
z cr ¿ z max > z cr → do not reject null hypothesis H 0
H 0 hold true for the daily maximum tempreture
 Assignment 1

2022 : x3 =13.08° C , n3 =364 , s 3=5.07 ° C

2021 : x 4=13.18 ° C , n4 =363 , s 4=4.89° C

D0=0 , α=0.05
n1,2 >30 ∴ z test
Formation of the null hypothesis
H 0=x 3 −x3 ≤ D 0

x 1−x 2 ≤ 0
The assumption is that climate change does not significantly affect the mean maximum
temperatures over a 2 year period.

Formulation of alternative hypothesis

¿ Tailed → H 1= x3 −x 4 > D0
x 3−x 4 >0

Calculation of test-statistic

√ √
2 2
s3 s 4 2
5.07 4.89
2
SE= + = + =0. 370
n3 n 4 364 363

x 3−x 4 −D 0
Test Statistic → z max=
SE

z Tmin=0 .282
Calculation of the critical z-valve

z cr =± 1.645
z cr ¿ z max > z cr → do not reject null hypothesis H 0
H 0 hold true for the daily minimum tempreture

By Calculating both maximum and minimum statistics and by proving both null hypothesis to be
true it is clear that the statement cannot be strictly true. While minor fluctuations between years in
min and max temperatures may occur, they cannot be said to be linked to climate change events. To
do that a larger sample of years must be used.
 Assignment 1

"Do marine reserves work?"

The utility of no-take marine reserves as fisheries management tools is controversial. The
idea is that marine reserves will sustain fisheries external to them by becoming net exporters
of adult fish. In 2004, a study of a fishery adjacent to a marine reserve in the Philippines was
published in Ecological Applications. The authors measured fish populations once a year in
the fishery before (1985-1988) and after (1990-2001) creation of the adjacent no-take marine
reserve. The summary of their data is as follows:

Mean fish biomass density (kg/ha), standard errors in

brackets

Before 184 (46)

After 382 (74)

In-class question: If you are the editor of Ecological Applications, do you allow the authors to
use that title? (4 marks)

A. Yes

B. No

C. I need to see more data, specifically.....

(calculations need to be provided to support the answers)
 Assignment 1

Null hypothesis (H0) is that there is no significant difference in mean fish biomass density before and after
the creation of the marine reserve.

The alternative hypothesis (H1) is that there is a significant difference.

Before: Mean = 184 (kg/ha), SE = 46

After: Mean = 382 (kg/ha), SE = 74

Before : x1 =184( kg/ha) , SE=46

After : x 2=184 (kg / ha), SE=74

D0=0 , α=0.05
n1,2 <30 ∴ t test

Calculation of test-statistic
x2 −x1 382−184
t= = =6.83

√ √74 2 462
2 2
SE2 SE 1
+ +
n2 n1 11 4
t cr =±2.160
t cr <t →reject null hypothesis H 0

The alternative hypothesis (H1) is that there is a significant difference is true.

Therefore, they can use the title as there is a significant difference and in this case increase in biomass after
the implementation of the marine reserve.