Estimation of Design Flows for Small

Watersheds
With Consideration of Fish Passage
Background

• The Estimation of Design Flows in Manitoba is based on:

the statistical analysis of observed flows for watersheds
>38km2

a relationship between watershed characteristics and
rainfall intensity for watersheds <13km2
• The method used for small watersheds does not properly
reflect the streamflow characteristics during the critical
spring spawning season
• AECOM will present an attempt to rationalize a better
method to estimate the spring flows for small watersheds
Current Methods Used to Estimate Design Flows

• Regional Method for larger watersheds > 38km2

• Rational Method for watersheds < 13km2
• Transitional Method - watersheds between 13 & 38km2

• These methods were developed to estimate critical flow

events to protect infrastructure and provide agricultural
drainage
Regional Method

• An Index Stream Method

• Based on:

Identifying a stream of similar characteristics

Statistical analysis of observed streamflow

• The critical events for large watersheds are usually

snowmelt generated
Regional Method

• Design flows computed using statistical relationships

• Statistical analysis has been completed by Manitoba Water
Stewardship, on many Manitoba Streams (not all)
• Formula in the form Qmd = (C)An
• Q = Mean daily flow estimated by product of a regional
coefficient (C), catchment area (A) raised to the power of a
regional exponent (n)
• Requires selection of representative stream gauge by
analysis of proximity and catchment characteristics
 REGIONAL FLOOD FORMULAE
ZONE 7

Q(CMS)=C*AREA(SQ.KM.)**N FISH PASSAGE

0.733 27-Jul-06

STATION NAME LOCATION STATION PERIOD OF RECORD NUMBER GROSS 1% 2% 3% 5% 10% 20% 30% 50% NO. PERIOD 3dQ10
NUMBER OF AREA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q OF OF Q
YEARS Sq. Km. C C C C C C C C YEARS RECORD Cq10

Bird River Bird Lake 05PJ001 1960-1999 R 40 1039 62.2 53.8 49.0 43.1 35.3 27.6 23.1 17.1 43 1960 33.2
0.382 0.331 0.301 0.265 0.217 0.170 0.142 0.105 to 2002 0.204

Black River Manigotagan 05RA002 1960-1991 R 31 712 78.8 68.2 62.2 55.0 45.5 36.4 31.0 23.9 31 1960 39.8
0.639 0.553 0.505 0.446 0.369 0.295 0.251 0.194 to 1991 0.323
Regional Method

• From the formula Qmd = (C)An the 10 year design flow for a
stream (with area 1000km2) that has characteristics similar
to the Black River would be estimated as:

Design Flow Q10 as:

Qmd = (0.369)10000.733 = 58.3 m3/s

And the 3dQ10 as:

Qmd = (0.323)10000.733 = 51.1 m3/s

• The flow difference reflects the

reduced flows before and after
the peak
Regional Method

• Reduced flows selected before and after the peak

spanning delay period of 3-days
Rational Method

• Rational Method for watersheds < 13km2

• Recognizes that critical events for small watersheds are
rainfall generated
• Based on:

Physical characteristics of the watershed:
size, slope, soil type, land use

Statistical analysis of rainfall Intensity, Duration and Frequency (IDF)
since rainfall will generate the highest peak flows for small
watersheds

Maximum flow rate achieved when the duration is set to time of
concentration, which is the minimum time required for the entire
watershed to contribute flow to the point of interest
Rational Method - Hydrologic Analysis
Rainfall intensity
based on Duration
equal to Time of
concentration (Tc)
and Return Period

IDF curves
used only for
Instantaneous
Peak Flow
Rational Method - Hydrologic Analysis
Rainfall as total depth
 Modified Rational Method – MB Provincial Standard

• Produces mean daily flow

– Using 6 hr Time to peak
– 24 hr base
– Table value x catchment area
x correction factors
Factors for Hydrologic Soil Group,
Land Use & Rainfall Correction
Storage correction factors determined
by analysis of percent area of storage
and location within catchment
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1

1.2
Rational Method

The Rational formula is in the form

Q = K*CIA
where:
Q = estimate of the peak runoff rate, m3/s
C = ratio of surface runoff to rainfall
I = average rainfall intensity, (mm/hour)
A = drainage area (hectares)
K = metric conversion factor (0.00278)
Rational Method

The 10 year instantaneous peak flow for a 10km2

watershed would be:
Q = 6.7 m3/s
C = 0.24
I = 10 mm/hr
A = 1000 ha
K = 0.00278

This converts to a peak mean daily flow of 1.7 m3/s.

• Hydrographs (Rational Q peak vs Q mean daily)

Mean Daily Flow 4 to 5

times smaller than
Instantaneous Peak Flow
The Issue

• The Rational Method is based on

rainfall
• The flow rate one day on either
side of the peak is ZERO
• Spawning runs will not occur
during short summer rainfall
events but occur in the spring
when flows are more sustained
but at a lower intensity
The Issue

• 3dQ10 is used to compute velocity through hydraulic

structures – water velocity must not impede fish passage
• Due to the uncertainty of the right adjustment to be
applied to convert the 10 year mean daily flow to the 3dQ10
we have tended to use Q10(md) to design hydraulic
structures
• This can result in structures that are larger than necessary
for hydraulic conveyance and can be detrimental to fish
passage

Most importantly - we are designing for the

wrong flow event
 Example

• Increasing Culvert diameters to reduce velocities can result

in water levels that are too low
Illustration of Water Level thru Various Culverts
Profile of Modelled Water Level Through Culverts
Adjustment of Rational Method Peak Flow

Culverts should be designed for flows during the

spawning season – which is spring for most
species

Two approaches to determine the spring 3dQ10

First Approach- Use Rational Method with Adjustment

• Determine the ratio between Q10 : 3dQ10 for small

catchments
Adjustment of Rational Method Peak Flow
• Attempt to find ratio between 10% flow and 3dQ10
• Ratio varies between 0.2 and 0.9 for all watersheds in
Manitoba
1.2

1.0
3DQ10 / 10% Coefficient

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
y = 0.35x 0.1175
R2 = 0.31
0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Catchment Area (km2)
Adjustment of Rational Method Peak Flow
• The ratio between 10% flow and 3dQ10 in small regional
catchments
• Range for 10km2 watershed varies between 0.2 and 0.4
1.2

1.0
3DQ10 / 10% Coefficient

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
y = 0.00506x + 0.290
R2 = 0.44
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Catchment Area (km2)
Adjustment of Rational Method Peak Flow

Second Approach- Determine Spring Runoff

Characteristics for Small Watersheds

• Determine 10 year return period over winter precipitation

• Determine reasonable melt rate based on recorded
temperature and streamflow data
 Development of Realistic Spring Flow Rates
• Study of snow melt in representative catchments where
climate stations recorded precipitation, in watersheds with
gauged stream flow records
Table 1 - 10% Event Winter Snowfall as Snow Depth [cm]
Weather Station Lognormal Pearson Type 3 Log-Pearson
Type 3
Arborg 138 137 136
Ashern 130 125 125
Berens River 176 180 177
Bissett 163 160 160
Fisher Branch 172 167 166
Gimli 181 178 178
Great Falls REJECTED 160 160
Pinawa 160 153 154
Winnipeg Int’l Airport 145 146 145
 Development of Realistic Spring Flow Rates
• Total precipitation more accurately represents potential
Spring runoff

Table 2 - 10% Event Winter Precipitation as Depth [mm]

Weather Station Lognormal Pearson Type 3 Log-Pearson
Type 3
Arborg 154 151 151
Ashern 139 132 132
Berens River 179 182 180
Bissett 176 171 171
Fisher Branch 195 189 189
Gimli 198 191 191
Great Falls REJECTED 170 169
Pinawa 164 161 161
Winnipeg Int’l Airport 164 163 162
 Development of Realistic Spring Flow Rates

Table 3 – Hydrograph Properties

Trends from single-peak spring events in two catchments

• Time to peak 4 days, 3dQ10 ratio 86%, CRO 0.38%
 Development of Realistic Spring Flow Rates
Observed and Modelled Hydrographs

Spring runoff modeled from winter precipitation & statistics

• Time to peak 4 days, 3dQ10 ratio 86%, CRO 0.38%
Spring Flow Estimates

• Use observed inputs of:

– 10% event overwinter precipitation
– Modified by Direct Runoff ratio 0.38
– Conservative melt rate in regional catchments
• 4 day to peak
– Documented hydrograph generation method
• SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph

• To produce a reasonable hydrograph with

– Reasonable Peak flow rate
– Reasonable Duration
– Reasonable Shape
 Spring Flow Hydrographs from various models

10% Spring Runoff - Catchment 10 km2

8
Rational Method Qpi

7 Rational Method Qmd

Modelled Hydrograph from 10% Snow
6 6.7
Fish Passage Flow 3dQ10
Discharge (m3/s)

1.7 1.4
1
1
1.08 3dQ10
0
17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr
Conclusion:

• Use of the Rational Method for estimating 3dQ10 can result

in an over estimate of design flow rate
• Methods should be developed for estimating flows during
the spring spawning season
Thank You

Tyson.Ehnes@aecom.com