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Accelerat ing t he world's research.

Scenarios for the carbon balance of


Finnish forests and wood products
Seppo Kellomäki
Environmental Science & Policy

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Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

Scenarios for the carbon balance of Finnish forests and wood


products
Timo Karjalainen a, *, Ari Pussinen a, b, 1, Seppo KellomaÈki b, 2, Raisa MaÈkipaÈaÈ c, 3
a
European Forest Institute, Torikatu 34, 80100 Joensuu, Finland
b
Faculty of Forestry, University of Joensuu, P.O. Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
c
Finnish Forest Research Institute, Unioninkatu 40A, 00170 Helsinki, Finland

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to compare di€erent scenarios for carbon (C) sequestration in the forest sector in Finland.
Forest inventory data was used as input data to simulate the dynamics of C sequestration with a gap-type forest simulation
model and a wood product model. In the baseline scenario, current forest management practices were applied. In another
scenario, current recommendations for forest management were applied, which resulted in more intensive harvesting than in the
baseline scenario. Both scenarios were also applied under changing climatic conditions to demonstrate the possible e€ect of
climate change on C sequestration.
This study demonstrates that C sequestration assessments should include not only C in the biomass of trees, but also C in the
soil and in the wood products, as well as interactions between the respective pools. Partial assessments are likely to result in
misleading estimates of the actual C sequestration. Forest management a€ects the distribution of C between the pools and the
changing climate is likely to change this distribution. The Kyoto Protocol deals with only a limited part of the forestry and
forest C cycle and C accounting accordingly can provide results that depart substantially from more complete accounting.
# 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Forest management; Forest sector; Kyoto Protocol; Scenario analysis; Wood use

1. Introduction atmosphere, in particular that of carbon dioxide


(Houghton et al., 1990, 1992, 1995). The importance
The global climate is expected to change substan- of reducing carbon (C) emissions with the aim of
tially in the foreseeable future due to the rapidly slowing down the build-up of the atmospheric car-
increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the bon dioxide is widely agreed, i.e. in the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and in the Conference of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +358-13-252-0240; fax: +358-13-
124393; e-mail: timo.karjalainen@e®.®
the Parties in Kyoto in 1997. This implies that less
1
Tel.: +358-13-252-0241, fax: +358-13-124-393, e-mail: ari.pussi- fossil fuels should be used in order to decrease
nen@e®.® emissions into the atmosphere. Emissions from land-
2
use can also be decreased, sequestration of C into
Tel.: +358-13-2513630, fax: +358-13-2514444, e-mail: seppo.
ecosystems and other stocks can be increased and
kellomaki@joensuu.®
fossil fuel based energy and products can be
3
Tel.: +358-9-8570 5654, fax: +358-9-625 308, e-mail: raisa. replaced with renewable wood based energy and
makipaa@metla.® products.

1462-9011/99/$ - see front matter # 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 1 4 6 2 - 9 0 1 1 ( 9 8 ) 0 0 0 4 7 - 1
166 T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

In the long run, the C accumulated in forests from 2. Methods and data
the atmosphere will be released back to the atmos-
phere through respiration, decay of litter and soil or- 2.1. Carbon budget
ganic matter, oxidation of wood products and as a
result of disturbances in forests. Net change in the C Carbon sequestration in the forest sector has been
simulated using dynamic forest (KellomaÈki et al.,
stocks (vegetation, soil, products) shows if these stocks
1992; Karjalainen, 1996a) and wood product models
are C sinks (accumulating C) or C sources (loosing C).
(Karjalainen et al., 1994), which take into account C
It should be noted that the state of these stocks vary transfers between forests, wood products and the at-
over time, i.e. a stock can be a sink one year but it can mosphere (Fig. 1). They allow calculations of the net
be a source the following year. Fluctuations are more changes in each of the C stocks and in the whole
pronounced on smaller spatial scales than on larger system as well as ¯uxes between the stocks. This
scales. Therefore it is important to look at the long- procedure has been applied earlier both on stand
term dynamics of C stocks and not only at particular level assessments (Karjalainen and KellomaÈki, 1995;
years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Karjalainen, 1996b,c) and on national level assess-
Change (IPCC) has provided guidelines to calculate ments (Karjalainen et al., 1997a; Pussinen et al.,
1997).
national greenhouse gas inventories for land-use
Carbon ¯uxes and storage can be calculated for
change and forestry (IPCC, 1997). These guidelines
each component, but of particular interest is the net C
assume, however, that wood products are oxidized im- sequestration in the forest ecosystem (net change in
mediately and therefore no accumulation of C in long the forest ecosystem), the net C sequestration in wood
life-span products. In the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3, products (net change in wood products), the total net
C stock changes of land-use change and forestry are C sequestration of the entire forest and wood-product
limited to a€orestation, reforestation and deforestation system (the total net change), as well as size of the for-
since 1990. In Article 3.4, however, each party has est C storage, wood-product C storage and storage of
been asked to establish its level of C stocks (not the entire forest and wood-product system.
de®ned which) in 1990 and to provide changes in C
2.2. Forest simulation model
stocks in subsequent years. Additional human-induced
activities may be included later in addition to those in
Carbon ¯uxes and stocks in forests have been simu-
Article 3.3. Both the IPCC guidelines and the Kyoto lated with a gap-type model (KellomaÈki et al., 1992;
Protocol leave part of the system out of the consider- Karjalainen, 1996a,b; Talkkari and HypeÂn, 1996) in
ation and if applied would possibly provide biased esti- which the site conditions are described in terms of the
mates of C sequestration. availability of light, growing season degree-days, soil
The impact of forest management on the structure moisture and availability of nitrogen. These environ-
and functioning of forest ecosystems in Finland is mental conditions scale tree growth from the optimum
much larger than that of natural disturbances: since level to actual level. Also, the establishment and death
of trees, as well as the establishment, growth and
1970 approximately 428,000 ha per year have been
death of ground vegetation, are in¯uenced by these en-
treated with fellings while annually burned areas have
vironmental constraints. In the current model, the
been less than 700 ha (Yearbook of Forest Statistics, growing season degree-day multiplier, which limits the
1997). Forest growth is strongly limited by tempera- geographical distribution of a tree species along the
ture, especially in the northern part of the country. temperature gradient by using the prevailing tempera-
Predicted climate change may have a strong in¯uence ture sum and species speci®c minimum and maximum
on forest growth, decomposition of litter, soil organic temperature sums, has been modi®ed from the initial
matter and productivity, and thus on C sequestration. multiplier. Now the growing season degree-day multi-
This should not be neglected in C sequestration scen- plier follows the initial multiplier up to the optimum
arios. In this paper, we have compared the e€ects of temperature conditions, but remains at the maximum
di€erent forest management regimes and the possible value until the break up in the maximum temperature
sum (MaÈkipaÈaÈ et al., 1998). Forest management com-
e€ects of changing climatic conditions on C sequestra-
prises stand establishment, thinning and clearfelling.
tion in the forest sector in Finland. We chose one of Removals through felling of trees are converted into
the scenarios as a baseline, but we have also discussed timber assortments (logs, pulpwood and residue wood)
the basis for choosing a baseline. Implications of in accordance with the speci®c dimensions for each
implementing Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto assortment. This model has been widely used to assess
Protocol are discussed brie¯y. the e€ects of the changing climate on boreal forests in
T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175 167

Fig. 1. Outlines of the atmosphere-forest-wood-based products C interactions in this study (C ¯uxes and stocks).

Finland (KellomaÈki and KolstroÈm, 1992a,b, 1993; for the use of wood itself mainly in the form of by-
KellomaÈki, 1995; Karjalainen, 1996a,b,c; Talkkari, products. For further details of the product model see
1996; Talkkari and HypeÂn, 1996), also regionally and Karjalainen et al. (1994, 1995).
nationally (Talkkari, 1996; Pussinen et al., 1997).
2.4. Input data
2.3. Wood-product model
The calculations were done for productive forest
Timber harvest, divided into timber assortments by land on mineral soils (average annual growth at least 1
tree species, is used as the input in the wood-product m3/ha), representing approximately 66% of the for-
model. Harvested timber is processed into products estry land area, i.e. 15.2 Mha. Data collected from
and the C bound in products is followed until the pro- 1256 permanent plots within the national forest inven-
ducts are removed from use and the C is released back tory by the Finnish Forest Research Institute provided
into the atmosphere. The conversion of timber into the basis for constructing the initial forest C storage
wood products (fuelwood, chemical pulp and paper, for the year 1990. The tree characteristics used as
mechanical pulp and paper, plywood and sawn timber) input were tree species and diameter at breast height
is based on product/timber units typical for the wood- and the site characteristics comprised coordinates, alti-
processing industry in Finland. The ®nal products are tude, site-type, depth of the humus layer, soil fertility
divided into four life-span categories to describe typi- and type. Climatic conditions (temperature, precipi-
cal use of the products. These life-span categories are tation, heat-sum and evapotranspiration) were simu-
short (fuelwood, newsprint, some packing paper, lated based on coordinates and altitude.
paperboard and printing and writing paper), medium-
short (the rest of the packing paper, paperboard and 2.5. Scenarios
printing and writing paper), medium-long (part of
sawn timber and plywood) and long (rest of the sawn In the current climate scenario, the temperature and
timber and plywood). It should be noted that the precipitation values are from the period 1961±1990.
wood-product model does not consider the use of pri- The mean annual temperature for the whole country
mary energy in processing wood into products, except was 1.58C and precipitation 580 mm, varying from
168 T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

Table 1
The scenarios of seasonal temperature and precipitation change over Finland for 1990±2100 (Carter et al., 1995). Rates of
change are assumed to be linear

Season Temperature change (8C/decade) Precipitation change (%/decade)

moderate intermediate greatest moderate intermediate greatest

Spring, March±May 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.125 0.5 0.75


Summer, June±August 0.075 0.3 0.45 0.25 1 1.5
Autumn, September±November 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.25 1 1.5
Winter, December±February 0.125 0.6 0.75 0.42 2 2.5
Mean 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.25 1 1.5

+58C and 650 mm in the southern part of the country taskukirja, 1956, 1975; Kunnas, 1973; Yearbook of
to ÿ28C and 450 mm in the northern part of the Forest Statistics, 1990±1991, 1992) in the wood pro-
country. For the changing climate, the increases in duct model. Exports and imports of timber and wood
temperature and precipitation for moderate, intermedi- products were excluded from the calculations, since the
ate and greatest climate change (Table 1) are from aim was to assess the contribution of wood grown and
three scenarios applying low, central and high emission processed in Finland to C sequestration regardless of
estimates of the IPCC (IS92c, a and f in Houghton et the end-use location of the ®nal products. The total
al., 1992). wood product stock in 1990 was 175.6 Tg C (approxi-
The basis for forest management is as given in the mately 80% of this is outside the Finnish border), of
forest management recommendations (Tapio, 1994). which 88.7 Tg C was in products in use and 86.9 Tg C
Currently, forests are not managed as intensively as was in products in land®lls. Products in use stock
the recommendations would allow. Current harvesting increased by 0.8 Tg C in 1990, while products in land-
levels were achieved when each year 7% of the stands ®ll stock increased by 1.6 Tg C/a, providing 2.4 Tg C/
that exceeded thinning and clearfelling limits were har- a net change (sink) in the product stock.
vested. This meant that the probability of harvest in
these stands was 50% less than recommended within
10 years. This is later called current management. In 3. Results
another scenario, forest management was intensi®ed to
the level recommendations allow. Intensi®cation of All the C stocks were higher in 2100 than in 1990
management was done slowly and the recommended (Table 2). This indicates that current forest stocks are
level was achieved after 46 years. This is later called not yet at the maximum levels. The current age class
intensive management. structure of forests is fairly even and allows accumu-
The initial wood-product storage in 1990 was taken lation of C in forests, because the standing volume
from Pussinen et al. (1997), who calculated them by (amount of stemwood per hectare) can increase as a
using wood-use data for the period 1860±1990 (Tapion result of increment increasing the fellings. The largest

Table 2
Size of the C stocks (Mg C/ha) in 1990 and in 2100 when applying current management and intensive management
on the productive forest land on mineral soil (15.2 Mha) under the current climate and the intermediate climate
change

C stock (Mg C/ha) Stock in 1990 Stock in 2100 Stock in 2100


current climate intermediate climate change

current intensive current intensive


management management management management

Vegetation 40.7 59.6 47.7 56.0 45.4


Litter 6.4 13.9 11.8 17.3 15.0
SOM 20.5 49.8 42.9 38.8 33.4
Forest 67.6 123.3 102.2 112.2 93.8
Products in use 7.3 15.0 17.4 17.2 18.7
Products in land®lls 3.3 12.3 14.7 13.8 16.3
Products total 10.6 27.3 32.1 31.0 35.0
Forest sector 78.2 150.7 134.4 143.2 128.7
T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175 169

Fig. 2. Caption overleaf.

changes, however, took place in product stocks, case more C from vegetation was transferred into pro-
especially in land®lls, as a result of the continuous pro- ducts. Intensive management also decreased litter and
duction and use of products and input in the land®lls soil organic matter stocks as the turnover of C in these
exceeding the decay in land®lls. Stocks of litter and stocks increased compared to current management.
soil organic matter also increased more than that of Under current climatic conditions, forest stocks
vegetation. The impact of intensive management on C decreased by 14±20% and product stocks increased by
stocks was larger than that of intermediate climate 16±20% as a result of intensive management between
change, except in the case of litter and soil organic 1990 and 2100. Since forest stocks are larger than pro-
matter. Intensive management provided smaller forest duct stocks, the change in the forest sector stock was
stocks than current management, since in the former ÿ10%. It is worth noting that C removed from forests
170 T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

Fig. 2. Caption opposite.

can substitute fossil fuel based C in products and whole simulation period (1990±2100). Under inter-
energy and thus provide emission reductions elsewhere mediate climate change, however, vegetation and soil
bigger than stock decrease in forests. organic matter stocks started to decrease (became C
Intermediate climate change decreased the forest sources) after the year 2070 (Fig. 2). This was a result
stock by 8±9%, while product stocks increased by 9± of litter formation exceeding the growth and decompo-
14% and the forest sector stock decreased by 4±5%. sition of soil organic matter exceeding input to soil or-
Intermediate climate change decreased the forest stocks ganic matter. Litter stock increased, since input in that
thus: vegetation by 5±6%, soil organic matter by 22%, stock increased more than decomposition of litter (due
while litter stocks increased by 24±27%. Product to the larger input of stemwood which does not
stocks increased by 7±15%. It should be noted that decompose as quickly as other litter cohorts). Under
under moderate climate change all the forest stocks the greatest climate change, vegetation and soil organic
were higher than under the current climate over the matter stocks became C sources after the year 2050,
T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175 171

Fig. 2. Development of C stocks in di€erent scenarios, note that the scale in each ®gure is di€erent.

earlier than under intermediate climate change. These of them either directly (in case of forest stocks) or in-
changes turned the whole forest sector into a slight C directly (in case of product stocks).
source under intermediate climate change after 2075, The average net C sequestration over the whole
but to a much larger C source under the greatest cli- simulation period (1990±2100) was higher in forests
mate change after 2060. than in products (Fig. 3). Also changes in the net aver-
It is worth emphasizing that each C stock has its age C sequestration, as a result of applied forest man-
own dynamics (Fig. 2) and that they are connected to agement or changing climatic conditions, were more
each other (output from one is input to another). pronounced in forests than in products. Under current
Therefore changes as a result of changed forest man- climatic conditions, 77% of the net C sequestration
agement or changing climatic conditions will a€ect all took place in forests and 23% in products when apply-
172 T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

Fig. 3. Average net C sequestration over the simulation period (1990±2100) in di€erent scenarios.

ing current management. When intensive management simulations of current climatic conditions and current
was applied, 66% of the net sequestration was in for- management, 40% of the total C was in the veg-
ests and 34% in products. As a consequence of more etation, 9% in the litter, 33% in the soil organic mat-
pronounced climate change, both the net C sequestra- ter, 10% in products in use and 8% in products in
tion in the forests and the total net C sequestration land®lls. The dynamics of the system should also be
decreased. followed, since C sequestration is not static. Climatic
It is worth noting that gross ¯uxes are much higher conditions are likely to change as a consequence of
than net ¯uxes (changes in the stock sizes), also gross human in¯uence, which should be taken into account
¯uxes in forests are much higher than those in pro- in C sequestration assessments, since the changing cli-
ducts (Fig. 4). Approximately 10% of the gross pro- matic conditions can also in¯uence the forest sector C
duction was actually sequestered in the forest sector. sequestration as demonstrated in this paper. Moderate
For example, under current climate and current man- temperature increase seems to enhance C sequestration
agement average gross production was 5.9 Mg C/ha/a, in the forests, while more pronounced temperature
net sequestration was 0.5 Mg C/ha/a in forests and increase could enhance decomposition of the soil or-
0.15 Mg C/ha/a in products. Burning of by-products ganic matter so much that forests could turn from C
(0.2 Mg C/ha/a) and burning of discarded products sinks into C sources.
(0.17 Mg C/a) have the potential to replace, for We applied two forest management scenarios in this
example, fossil fuels. study. These scenarios resulted in di€erent C allo-
cations in the forest sector, but also resulted in di€er-
ences in the net C sequestration. Both of the applied
4. Discussion management scenarios may be argued to be possible
baselines. Current forest management practices (cur-
We have demonstrated how the forest and wood rent management scenario) follow the actual thinning
product C stocks could develop when forest manage- and clearfelling practices and could therefore be the
ment practices are changed. In our simulations intensi- basis for a baseline, as in this paper. Forest manage-
®ed management decreased the total C stock. Our ment guidelines/recommendations (intensive manage-
computations show that it is not enough to look at ment scenario) aim at economical pro®tability but, at
one stock, for example at vegetation, since the forest the same time, they take into account the sustainability
sector also has other components: at the end of the of timber production, as well as the sustainability of
T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175 173

Fig. 4. Average C ¯uxes (Mg C/ha/a) over the whole simulation period under current climatic conditions when current management was applied.

forest ecosystems (Tapio, 1994). In practice, all forests tion in our simulations, the net C impact of forestry
are not managed according to these guidelines; usually would have been zero, since we did not assume any
they are managed less intensively. If these guidelines changes in the forest land area, only changes in the C
are thought of as a kind of recommendation, then also stock in the current forest land area as a consequence
the forest management guidelines could be regarded as of forest management and climate change. If we had
a basis for the baseline. One possibility could also be applied the FAO de®nition, then regeneration of clear-
that the forest sector is thought to be neither a sink felled areas would have been taken into account as
nor a source in the baseline. In this case, departures reforestation and the forest sector would have shown a
from the zero line would be credited or debited in the C sink. In this case, one important part of the
proceeding years. Moreover, the most likely changing `equation' would have been excluded, that is, what has
climatic conditions could be regarded as a basis for the preceded reforestation, namely harvesting. Inclusion of
baseline and departures from this baseline which are a harvesting, however, would have resulted in a substan-
consequence of human activities could be then credited tial source, since clearfelling takes place in areas of
or debited. Departures from the baseline, however, high C density and the buildup of C stocks in these
may not be easy to verify in practice. areas takes a fairly long time.
The Kyoto Protocol has limited land-use and for- If only the activities mentioned in the Kyoto
estry activities to a€orestation, reforestation and defor- Protocol Article 3.3, as de®ned in the Revised 1996
estation since 1990, but does not give de®nitions for IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inven-
these activities. The IPCC guidelines for the national tories for land-use change and forestry (IPCC, 1997)
greenhouse gas inventories for land-use change and would be taken into account, the impact of forestry in
forestry (IPCC, 1997) de®ne reforestation as planting Finland on the national greenhouse gas balance would
of forests on lands which have previously contained for- di€er from reality. The a€orested and reforested area
ests but which have been converted to some other use, in Finland, according to the IPCC de®nition, has been,
while FAO (1997) de®nes reforestation as establishment and is likely to be small (approximately 7400 ha/a
of a tree crop on forest land. If we had applied the since 1970, Yearbook of Forest Statistics, 1997) and
Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC de®nition for reforesta- would provide therefore a small C sink. The total for-
174 T. Karjalainen et al. / Environmental Science & Policy 2 (1999) 165±175

est area, however, has been slightly decreasing accord- manuscript, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
ing to forest statistics (area of forest and scrub land of Finland for funding this project and the Finnish
decreased approximately 2190 ha/a between the Forest Research Institute for giving us the forest
seventh and eighth national forest inventory, inventory data as input data for our simulations.
Yearbook of Forest Statistics, 1997) and if a similar
trend is to continue, it would provide a C source for
Finland. In fact, the area of productive forest land and
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Pubescent birch in southern and northern Finland. Forest Ecology
and Management 65, 201±217. Timo Karjalainen, Forestry, Programme Manager (Forest Ecology
KellomaÈki, S., VaÈisaÈnen, H., HaÈnninen, H., KolstroÈm, T., Lauhanen, and Management) and Senior Researcher at the European Forest
R., Mattila, U., Pajari, B., 1992. A simulation model for the succes- Institute. Several years experience in projects related to forestry car-
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Kunnas, J., 1973. MetsaÈtaloustuotanto Suomessa 1860±1965.
Kasvututkimuksia IV, Suomen pankin julkaisuja. Forestry in Ari Pussinen (M.Sc.), Forestry, Researcher at the European Forest
Finland, 1860±1965. Bank of Finland Publications, 192 p. Institute. Long experience in forestry carbon budget assessments and
MaÈkipaÈaÈ, R., Karjalainen, T., Pussinen, A., KellomaÈki, S., 1998. in particular in model development for stand level and for national
E€ects of climate change and nitrogen deposition on the carbon level assessments for forests and wood products.
sequestration of a forest ecosystem in the boreal zone. Canadian
Journal of Forest Research, submitted for publication.
Seppo KellomaÈki, Forestry, Professor of Silviculture. Long term ex-
Pussinen, A., Karjalainen, T., KellomaÈki, S., MaÈkipaÈaÈ, R., 1997.
perience in ecosystem modelling, in studies related to impacts of cli-
Contribution of the forest sector in carbon sequestration in
Finland. Biomass and Bioenergy 13 (6), 377±387. mate change on boreal forests. His group has been nominated
Talkkari, A., 1996. Regional predictions concerning the e€ects of several times as the Center of Excellence.
climate change on forests in southern Finland. Silva Fennica 30
(2±3), 247±257. Raisa MaÈkipaÈaÈ, Forestry, Forest ecologist and soil scientist, long ex-
Talkkari, A., HypeÂn, H., 1996. Development and assessment of a gap- perience in carbon budget assessments of forests and in particular on
type model to predict the e€ects of climate change on forests based the impacts of nitrogen fertilization/deposition on forest ecosystems.
on spatial forest data. Forest Ecology and Management 83, 217±228. Currently involved also in biodiversity research.

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