Annotation Vehicle Emission Standard in Indonesia 2020

Adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard
With preparation to move to Euro 6/VI

Standard
1
Vehicle Emission Standard in Indonesia
The Benefits, Outlining Roadmap and Fiscal Incentive
Adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard with preparation to move to Euro 6/VI Standard
The benefits
The outline of a roadmap for Euro 6/VI Standard
The fiscal incentive
Authors:
 Ahmad Safrudin
 Alfred Sitorus
 Aditya Mahalana
 Amalia S Bendang
 Mohammad Agung
Supporting team:
 Nurul Kumari  Laily Fitria
Acknowledgement
Dr I Putu Gde Wiryawan, Ministry of Industry; The late Dr Harjanto, Ministry of Industry; MR Karliansyah,
Ministry of Environment and Forestry; Mr Bert Fabian, UN Environment, Dr Oswar Mungkasa, Deputy
Governor of DKI Jakarta; Dr Syafrin Liputo, Head of Transport Agency of DKI Jakarta; Dr Tri Joko
Haryanto, Fiscal Policy Agency; Agunan Samosir, Fiscal Policy Agency; Zenitha A Paramitha, Fiscal Policy
Agency; Putu Juli Ardika, Ministry of Industry; Bambag Prihartono, Ministry of Transport; Dr Ikhwan
Hakim, Ministry of National Development Planning; Dr Kukuh Kumara, GAIKINDO (Automotive Industry
Association); Eko Rudiyanto, Toyota Astra Motor; Dian Kuncoro, PT GAGAS Energy Indonesia; Robby
Sukardi, APCNGI. Harri Iskandar, BYD; Poerjanto, Mobil Anak Bangsa; Ery Priwan, Trans Jakarta; Edy
Surowasono, Toyota Astra Motor; Pradipto Sugondo, Astra Daihatsu Motor; Indra Chandra Setiawan,
Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia; Iswahyudi, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; M Ikhsan Asaad,
PT PLN; Sindu, PT PLN; Dasrul Chaniago, Ministry of Environment and Forestry; Emma Rachmawati,
Ministry of Environment and Forestry; Ratna Kartikasari, Ministry of Environment and Forestry; Dr Hariyanto,
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; Anis, BTMP; Andi, Ministry of Industry; Dr drg Ririn Arminsih,
University of Indonesia, Prabowo Kertoleksono, Mobil Anak Bangsa; Triwahono, Hyundai; Danet
Suryatama, Electric Car; Leo Harwidono, Blue Bird; Oil and Gas, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources;
Churniadi, Pertamina; FX Chrisnanto, Pertamina; Syafei Triyono, Pertamina; Arief Budiyanto, Pertamina;
Kusdi Widodo, Pertagas; Yoga Iswinarto, Trans Jakarta; AgungWicaksono, Trans Jakarta; Billy
Appriyanto, ABC Battery; Mega Kusumaningkatma, International Council on Clean Transportation; Andono
Warih, Environmental Agency of DKI Jakarta; Yusiono Supalal, Environmental Agency of DKI Jakarta.
First draft, December 2019 Final report, November 2020

Second draft, May 2020
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Table of Content
List of Table 3.3.2.3. Electrified Vehicle 42

List of Figure 3.3.2.3.1. Jakarta, a prime-mover of urban e-
Abbreviation mobility
Executive Summary 3.4. Fiscal Incentive, A Trigger for Low Emission
Vehicle 45
Chapter 1 Introduction 10 3.4.1. Emission Excise 45
1. Background 10 3.4.2. Government Commitment 47
1.1. Trend Vehicle Fleet 10 3.4.3. Roadmap on Low Emission Vehicle and Low
1.2. Related Law and Regulation on Emission Carbon Emission Vehicle 47
Control 11 3.4.3.1. Low Emission Vehicle 49
1.2.1. National Act No 4/1982 11 3.4.3.2. Low Carbon Emission Vehicle 50
1.2.2. Management of Mobile Sources 11
1.2.3. Management of Stationary Sources 13 Chapter 4 Vehicle Emission, Control Strategy, and
1.2.4. Management of Area Sources 14 Its Effect on Economic Benefit 52
1.2.5. Act 16/2016 on Ratification of Paris 4.1. Estimation of motor vehicles emissions 52
Agreement to the UNFCCC 14 4.1.1. Vehicle Inventory and Fuel Types 52
1.2.6. National Master Plan for Industry (RIPIN) 4.1.2. Methods 53
2015 – 2035) 15 4.1.3. Analysis 55
1.2.7. Government Regulation No 73/2019 15 4.2. Economic Benefit of Vehicular Emission
1.2.8. National Energy Master Plan (RUEN) 15 Control Strategy 60
1.2.9. Presidential Decree No. 55/2019 16 4.2.1. Better Air Quality 60
1.2.10. Ministry of Forestry Decree on Euro IV 4.2.2. Cost Benefit Analysis 61
emission standard 16 4.2.3. Automotive Share to the GDP 63
1.2.11. Government Regulation No 41/1999 17 4.3. Lesson Learnt 1: Euro 4/IV Implementation
1.3. Objectives 17 in Other Countries 66
4.3.1. Thailand 66
Chapter 2 Air Pollution, Green-house Gas, and 4.3.2. Chile 67
Health Effect 18 4.3.3. Vietnam 68
2.1. Ambient Air Quality 19 4.3.4. India 68
2.2. Air Pollution and Pandemic Covid-19 19 4.4. Lesson Learnt 2: Euro 6/VI Standard 69
2.3. Ambient Air Quality Standard and Monitoring 4.4.1. Euro 6/VI Implementation in Various
19 Countries 69
2.4. Health Effect 23 4.4.1.1. India 70
4.4.1.2. Brazil 71
Chapter 3 Vehicular Emission Control Strategy 26 4.4.1.3. Australia 73
3.1. Control Strategy to Combat Air Pollution and 4.4.1.4. UK Euro 6 74
Green-house Gas 26 4.5. Lesson Learnt 3: Cost Benefit Analysis on
3.2. Integrated Vehicle Emission Reduction Euro 6/VI Standard 79
Strategy 26 4.5.1. Costs benefits of implementing stringent
3.3. Motor Vehicle Standard 29 emission standards
3.3.1. Implementation Euro 4/IV Standard 2 4.5.2. Implications for fuel policy 76
3.3.1.1. Obstacle 30 4.5.3. Examples from Argentina Euro VI cost and
3.3.1.1.1. Lack on Fuel Quality, and Fuel benefit study on Heavy Duty Vehicle 79
Preference Anomaly 30 4.5.4. Examples from cleaner fuels and vehicles in
3.3.1.1.2. Unfairness Fuel Pricing Policy 35 India 80
3.3.1.1.3. Too Many Fuel Types 37 4.5.5. Brazil’s effort to adopt Euro VI standards 81
3.3.1.1.4. Business Trick of Principal Vehicle
Manufacturers 37 Chapter 5 Summary and Recommendation 82
3.3.1.1.5. Purchasing power 38 5.1. Summary 82
3.3.2. The Challenges 38 5.2. Recommendation 90
3.3.2.1. Market penetration of cleaner fuel 38
3.3.2.2. Biofuel 39 Appendices
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List of Table
Table 1. Roadmap Auto-technology development

Table 2. Estimation Vehicular Fuel Consumption in Indonesia 2019 (L)
Table 3. Estimation Health Effects of Jakarta Air
Table 4. BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children and its correlation lead pollution in the air,
floor and ceiling window in residential areas of Greater Jakarta, 2016
Table 5. Total Sales of Motor Vehicle
Table 6. Comparison Fuel Pricing in Various Countries as at 30 April 2020 Unfairness Fuel Price
in Indonesia
Table 7. Biodiesel Comparison of FAME, Green Diesel Standalone, and Co-processing
Table 8. Percentage of Emission Load Reduction According to Effectiveness Control Strategy
Table 9. Timeline for Co-processing Refinery Trial – Pertamina
Table 10. Cost Benefit Analysis on Vehicular Emission Reduction Strategy
Table 11. Automotive Share to GDP
Table 12. Total Annual Sales of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia Base on the Variance
Table 13. Timeline for Adopted Nationwide HDV Emission Standard (all sales and registration)
Table 14. Regulations Related to Air Quality in Indonesia
Table 15. Emission Factor Refer to the Minister of Environment Decree No 12/2010
Table 16. Emission Factor of Gasoline Vehicle Refer to ECE
Table 17. Emission Factor of Diesel Vehicle Refer to ECE
Table 18. Emission Factor of Truck HDV Refer to ECE
Table 19. Emission Factor of Bus HDV Refer to ECE
Table 20. Emission Factor for Motor Cycle Euro Emission Standard
Table 21. European Union: emission standards for passenger cars (ECE + EUDC chassis
dynamometer test)
Table 22. Tier 1 Standard. LDV Emission Standard (FTP-75 Chassis Dynamometer Test.
Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100 -120,000 miles)
Table 23. NLEV Standards. LDV Emission Standards (FTP-75 Chassis Dynamometer Test)
Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100,000 miles)
Table 24. Tier 2 Standards. LDV Emission Standards (FTP-75 Chassis Dynamometer Test)
Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100,000 – 120,000 miles miles)
Table 25. US Standard. Tier 1 Standard. LDV Emission Standards (FTP-75 Chassis
Dynamometer Test). Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100 -120,000 miles)
Table 26. Estimation Emission Load – Motor Cycle, 1999 – 2030
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List of Figure
Graph 1 Trend of Total Population of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia

Graph 2 AAQM in Jakarta 2012-2017, declining slightly but still higher than standard PM2.5, PM10, SOx,
and O3.
Graph 3 PM2.5 Concentration in Jakarta, 2018
Graph 4 PM2.5 Concentration in Jakarta, 2019
Graph 5 Vehicular Source Apportionment (Ton/year)
Graph 6 Fuel share for motor vehicle.
Graph 7 Gasoline share
Graph 8 BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children and its correlation lead pollution in the air, floor
and ceiling window in residential areas of Greater Jakarta, 2016
Graph 9 BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children in 8 cities/regencies: the mostly above threshold
level, 2016
Graph 10 Total Selling Motor Vehicle in Indonesia
Graph 11 RON Regular Gasoline
Graph 12 The Sulfur Content in Regular Gasoline
Graph 13 Cetane number of Regular Diesel Fuel (Solar 48) is 49 with minimum 46 and max 50.
Graph 14 Sulfur content Regular Diesel Fuel (Solar 48) is 1282 ppm (both average 2017).
Graph 15 Total Demand Fuels 2018 and 2019
Graph 16 Trend of Monthly Total Selling Pertamax Turbo in Jakarta Province
Graph 17 Trend of Monthly Total Selling Pertamax Turbo in Nation-wide
Graph 18 Unfairness: Cost of Goods Sold of fuel versus its compliance to Euro Standard
Graph 19 Fiscal Incentive/Disincentive Scheme for Low Emission Vehicle
Graph 20 Fiscal Incentive/Disincentive Scheme for Low Carbon Intensity Fuel
Graph 21 Proposed Roadmap on Low Emission Vehicle, and Low Carbon Emission Vehicle
Graph 22 Estimation Trend Emission Load CO
Graph 23 Estimation Trend Emission Load HC
Graph 24 Estimation Trend Emission Load NOx
Graph 25 Estimation Trend Emission Load SO2
Graph 26 Estimation Trend Emission Load PM10
Graph 27 Estimation Trend Emission Load PM2.5
Graph 28 Trend Indonesia’s GDP
Graph 29 Global Vehicle Sales
Graph 30 GDP share of auto-industry
Graph 31 Total GDP share to Indonesia GDP
Graph 32 Daily average air pollutant concentration in Denpasar, Bali
Graph 33 Daily average air pollutant concentration in South Tangsel
Graph 34 Daily average air pollutant concentration in Medan
Graph 35 Daily average air pollutant concentration in Surabaya
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Abbreviation
AAQMS, Ambient Air Quality GHGs, Green-house Gas Pertamax HQ, Pertamina Gasoline Max
Monitoring Stations Go Gas Program, Go to CNG Utilization Performance with High Quality
AISI, Indonesian Association for Motor in Indonesia PHEV, Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Cycle Manufacturer GOI’s, Governement of Indonesia PM10, Particulate Matter, a particle which
APCNGI, Indonesian Association for HC, Hydrocarbon has diameter less than 10
Compressed Natural Gas Company HDV, High Duty Vehicle micrometres.
AQI, Air Quality Index HVGO, Heavy Vacuum Gas Oil PM2.5 Particulate Matter, a particle which
ASEAN, Association of South East Asian HVO, Hydro-treated Vegetable Oil has diameter less than 2.5
Nations ICCT, International Council on Clean micrometres.
ASPEKA, Mass Public Transport User Transportation PP, Peraturan Pemerintah or Government
Association ICD Codes (International Classification of Regulation
AVTUR, Aviation Turbine Fuel Diseases); ppm, part per million
B10/15/20/30, Blended ICE, Ignition Combustion Engine PSI, Pollutant Standard Index
(10%/15%/20%/30%) Biodiesel IDR, Indonesian Dollar Rupiah RBDPO, Refined, Bleached and
with Fossil Diesel Fuel IT, Information Technology Deodorized Palm Oil
B2W, Bike To Work JBPT, Jenis BBM dengan Penugasan RIPIN, National Master Plan for Industry
BAPPEDA, Local Agency for Tertentu, fuel type with certain duty RITJ, The Greater Jakarta Agglomeration
Development Planning KEN, National Energy Policy Transport Master Plan
BAU, Business as Ussual KL, Kilo Liter RON, Research Octane Number
BEV, Battery Electric Vehicle, km/l, kilometer per liter RU, Refinery Unit
BPS, Center for Statistical Bureau KoPK, Pedestrian movement coalition RUEN, National Energy Master Plan
BPTJ, The Greater Jakarta Agglomeration KPBB, Komite Penghapusan Bensin SAMSAT, Sistem Administrasi Manunggal
Transport Management Bertimbel Satu Atap (SAMSAT) or one roof
BRT, Bus Rapid Transport LCA, Life Cycle Analysis integrated administration system for
BS, Bharat Stage LCDI, low carbon development initiative motor vehicle
CFD, Car Free Day LCEV, Low Carbon Emission Vehicle SO2, Sulphur Dioxide
CBA, Cost Benefit Analysis LCGC, Low Cost Green Car Super TT, Super Tanpa Timbel, premium
CER, Certified Emission Reduction LDV, Light Duty Vehicle unleaded gasoline
CN, Cetane Number LEV, Low Emission Vehicle SUT, Sustainable Urban Transport
CNG, Compressed Natural Gas LGV, Liquefied Gas Vehicle TDM, Transport Demand Management
CO, Carbon Monoxide LPG, Liquefied Petroleum Gas THC, Total Hydro-Carbon
CO2, Carbon Dioxide LRT, Light Rapid Transit TSP, Total Suspended Partuculates
COGS, Cost of Goods Sold MBSD, Mega Barrel Per Stream Day BPLDH, the Environmental Agency of
COI, Cost of Illness MoEF, Ministry of Environment and DKI Jakarta
COPD, Chronicle Obstructive Pulmonary Forestry TIS, Thai Industrial Standards
Dieses MOPS, Mid Oil Platts Singapore TISI, Thailand Industrial Standard
Covid-19, Corona Virus Dieses 2019 MRT, Mass Rapid Transit Institute
CPO, Crudes Palm Oil M-tonsCO2e , Million tons CO2 TOD, Transit Oriented Development
CSO, Civil Society Organization Equivalent UK, United Kingdoms
D100, Diesel with 100% green biodiesel NAAQS, National Ambient Air ULAB, Used Lead Acid Battery
DEX-lite 51, Diesel Environment Extra Monitoring Stations ULEZ, London Ultra Low Emissions
Lite with CN 51 NEC, National Energy Council Zone
DISHUB, Transport Agency NDC, National Determine Contribution ULSDF, Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel Fuel
DKI Jakarta, Special Area of Capital City NGOs, Non-Government Organization ULSF, Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel
of Jakarta NGV, Natural Gas Vehicle UNEP, United Nations Environment
DLH, Environmental Agency NMHC, Non-Methane Hydro-Carbon Programme
DPF, Diesel Particulates Filter NMT, Non-Motorized Transportation UNFCCC, United Nations Framework
e-Bus, electrified Bus NO2, Nitrogen Dioxide Convention on Climate Change
EPR, Electronic Road Pricing NPV, Net Present Value US, United States
EMA, Environmental Management Act O3, Ozone (Ground Level Ozone) USD, United States Dollar
ESC, European Stationary Cycle OBD, On-Board Diagnostic USEPA, United States - Environmental
ETC, European Transient Cycle p.a., per annum Protection Agency
EU, European Union PCI, Per Capita Income VIN, Vehicle Identification Number
EV, electrified Vehicle PCU, Power Control Unit VKT, Vehicle Kilometer Travel
FAME, Fatty Acid Methyl Ether PCU, Powertrain Control Unit or inverter VOC, Volatile Organic Compound
FC, Fuel Cell PEMS, Portable Emissions Measurement WHO, World Health Organization
FCEV, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Systems WHSC, World Harmonized Steady-State
g/km, gram per kilometer Perta-DEX HQ, Pertamina Diesel Cycle
GAIKINDO, Indonesian Association for Environmental Extra with High WHTC, World Harmonized Transient
Car Manufacturer Quality Cycle
G-20, Government of 20 countries Perta-DEX, Pertamina Diesel WWFC, World Wide Fuel Charter
GDP, Gross Domestic Product Environmental Extra),
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Executive Summary
1. Current Status
Industrialization, motorization and urban development tend to increase the intensity of air pollution and GHG
emissions in Indonesia. Refering to the report of Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Stations (AAQMS) in Jakarta
for instance, it shows us that almost all of major air pollution parameters measured exceeded the standard.
Either it refers to WHO guideline/standard as well as national standard, with critical parameter consisting of
PM, O3 and NOx.
Total vehicle fleet in Indonesia tends to increase dramatically, especially during the period of 2001/2002 after
the market of motor vehicle emerged as a result of post-monetary crisis 1997/1998 economic recovery. As of
end of 2020, total population of vehicle fleet is more than 146 million units. In recent year, the total annual
selling of car is 1.1 million units, meanwhile motor cycle is 7 million units; of course, total population of motor
cycle is dominating the vehicle fleet.
Worsening air pollution exposed the urban areas especially those area which have high density of traffic, and
causes respiratory related illness/dieses, such as asthma, acute respiratory infection (ARI), pneumonia, bronchi-
pneumonia, chronicle obstructive pulmonary dieses (COPD), coronary artery dieses, cancer, hypertension,
kidney failure, decreasing intellectual of children, disruption of children brain development, etc. Air pollution
also causes a tendency for green-house gas emissions to increase and subsequently affecting global warming
and its negative effect from climate change with its problem such as increasing intensity of disaster which is
trigger by El Nino and La Nina phenomena, land slide, flooding, storm, wider spread of certain dieses as
malaria, changing of seasons and its effect on agriculture, higher temperature with heat island, etc.
Imbalance of vehicle fleet composition (car, bus, truck and motor cycle), and lack on appropriate public
transportation and freight/logistic have caused high level of inefficiency of fuel consumption with 68.7 million
KL/year being lost, (2019), as well as worsening local air pollution with total estimation emission load of
39,754.51 ton/day (2019), and green-house gas (GHGs) of 255.38 M-tonsCO2e/year (2019). Of course, air
pollution has made pressure for public health effects especially in dwellers of urban area. In Jakarta for instance,
people must pay IDR 51.2 T per year (2016) for medical treatment related to respiratory disease/illness caused
by air pollution, such as acute respiratory infection, pneumonia, bronchopneumonia, COPD, asthma, coronary
artery diseases, cancer, stroke, kidney failure, etc.
2. Emission Load and Fuel Consumption Load
Sources of vehicular emission as shown have contributed to the total emission load of 14,510,395.94 ton/year
(2019) that was emitted by motor cycle, 3-wheelers, gasoline passenger car, diesel passenger car, bus, and truck
which were driven on the road in the whole country. The major parameters which are estimated are CO, HC,
NOx, SOx, PM10, and PM2.5 with total load for each of them as follow: 10,933,661.04; 1,684,352.93;
1,727,010.61; 80.87; 49,587.15; and 115,703.34. CO is the highest pollutant then followed by NOx, HC, PM2.5,
PM10 and SO2. The parameters of air pollution show that Indonesia especially for urban areas are facing air
pollution problem with its health effects for the people.
3. Effectiveness on Emission Reduction base on Existing and Proposed Policy
Based on the analysis made in this study, we could conclude that there are significant effect from the
implementation of Euro Standard for motor vehicle. For parameter PM, it has dropped down 68.88% by 2030
as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could further drop to
76.54% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro
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6/VI since 2025. For parameter SO2, it could be drop 82.39% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II
Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could be drop 99.35% by 2030 when the policy is tightened
with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For parameter HC, it could be drop
58.52% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could
be drop 68.86% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro
6/VI since 2025. For parameter CO, it could be drop 58.64% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II
Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could be drop 77.50% by 2030 when the policy is tightened
with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For parameter NOx, it could be drop
24.55% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could
be drop 47.19% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro
6/VI since 2025. All estimation results of emission load reductions are included implementation Euro 3
standard for motor cycle since 2013, and its tightening with more stringent standard since 2024.
4. Cost Benefit Analysis on Low Emission Vehicle
Base on the Cost and Benefit Analysis (CBA), it shows that all of technology control strategies could be effective
to reduce emission load and emission concentration from mobile source emissions. With refer to the
calculation of the CBA, that adopting Euro 6/VI standard by 2025 could gain a total benefit of IDR 3,493.00
trillion by 2030 with NPV of IDR 338.79 trillion and net benefit annual average of IDR 337.65 trillion; even
though for this effort the government needs to push the oil industries to invest with total amount of IDR
926.55 trillion, as well as the auto-industry to invest on the new manufacturing of motor vehicle with total
amount of IDR 540.77 trillion. As a result of economic benefit from those investments, the country could gain
total economic benefit from improvement of public health with total monetary value of IDR 2,873.54 trillion;
that resulted from vehicular emission reduction, further on it would be a trigger for production saving with
total IDR 54.72 trillion. The control strategy also would also aiding fuel efficiency effort with total monetary
value of IDR 564.98 trillion or NPV IDR 293.79 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 94.16 trillion.
Other policy options which have been analyzed on the research of CBA Analysis on Fuel Economy and Fuel
Quality in Indonesia also shows similar result on the economic benefit of Euro 2/II implementation, HEV
(Hybrid Electrified Vehicle), and Car Scrappage.
Tightening 2-3 Wheelers in 2013 with using Euro 3 Standard, and followed up by proposing for the adoption
of more stringent emission standard by 2024 also would bring economic benefit with total IDR 3,219.83 trillion
by 2030; with NPV IDR 166.97 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 166.41 trillion, even though it will
require the auto-industry’s willingness to invest on the new manufacturing of 2-3 Wheelers with total
investment value of IDR 390.92 trillion. As a result, in terms of economic benefit, the country would gain
from improvement of public health with total amount of IDR 2,706.55 trillion; regarding to the vehicular
emission reduction, with its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 45.29 trillion, and improve
the fuel efficiency with total IDR 468.00 trillion or with NPV IDR 178.43 trillion and net benefit annual average
IDR 27.53 trillion.
The study also calculates the benefit of policy option of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). The result shows that
the highest benefit is achieved from BEV policy option, which gain the total economic benefit of IDR 9,603.37
trillion by 2030; with NPV IDR 3,264.40 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 1,415.55 trillion. Of
course, investment from electric vehicle industry needs to be made with total value of IDR 1,110.06 trillion
(battery industry with total IDR 387.45 trillion, and EV industry 722.60 trillion). At the economic benefit, the
country would gain from improving public health with total IDR 3,468.27 trillion; regarding to zero mobile
source of vehicular emission, with its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 544.78 trillion, and
improve the fuel efficiency with total IDR 5,590.30 trillion or with NPV IDR 1,118.06 trillion and net benefit
annual average IDR 559.03 trillion.
It is clear that vehicular emission reduction control strategy is not only able to reduce emission, but it is also
feasible to create economic benefit from improving public health, improving production saving, and increasing
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fuel saving. Learning from the empirical sales data, and sharing automotive sector to GDP, it shows that
innovation on advance technology is able to improve total sales of motor vehicle which was facing the saturated
market, and finally also emphasize the total GDP.
Policy reform on advance technology of motor vehicle which has objective both to improve its performance
on safety level and environmentally friendly (reduce emission, lower noisy, and lower fuel consumption); able
to improve its total sales; positive sharing to keep GDP and creating job, trigger multiplier effect on derivative
business and industry, and increase government revenue (tax, excise, and retribution).
Lesson learnt from various countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, India, Brazil, UK, Chile, Australia; shows us
that by controlling vehicular emission through the implementation Euro Standard, it is able to reduce emissions
effectively, and gain economic benefits beside its ability to keep the market control on auto-industry by
domestic manufacturers.
5. Point of No-return to Avoid Economic Crisis
With refer to CBA on this study, it shows that all efforts in relation to tightening vehicular emission standard
– Euro 2/II by 2005/2007, Euro 3 for 2-3 wheelers by 2013, simulation for Euro 4/IV by 2018 for gasoline vehicle and
2021 for diesel vehicle, and for Euro 6/VI standard by 2023 – is effective to reduce emissions significantly and also
able to gain economic benefit through fuel saving, improvement of public health, improving production saving,
and trigger market stability, as well as its stability on GDP sharing, and government revenues from automotive
sector. With regard to the various benefits which are affected by above mentioned vehicular control strategy,
we have reached the point no return to implement vehicular emission reduction based on the schedule as
mentioned above; rather than we will loss the economic benefit through losing of opportunity of auto-industry
multiplier effect, waste of fuels saving, worsening air pollution which lead to negative health effect, and
production saving. Every second of delay will push the economy downhill and its multiplier effects, which may
lead to an economic crisis.
Jakarta, November 2020
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Chapter 1
Introduction
2. Background
2.1. The Trend of Vehicle Fleet
1. Total vehicle fleet in Indonesia tends to increase dramatically, especially in the period of
2001/2002 after the emerge of motor vehicle market based on post-monetary crisis in 1997/1998
economic recovery. as of end of 2020, total vehicle fleet is more than 146 million units. Today,
the total annual selling of car is 1.1 million units, meanwhile motor cycle is 7 million units; of
course, total population of motor cycle is dominating the vehicle fleet. This is caused by
ineffectiveness of policy in the transportation sector. The policy still encourages people to have
their-own options in relation to conduct mobility, and freight and logistic transporter. Another
issue contributing to the problem is the lack of public transportation with affordable price,
comfortable, appropriate schedule, and safety; as well as lack of appropriate freight and logistic
transporter which are efficient, secure, and affordable. Otherwise, the total vehicle fleet tends to
increase in the future, especially when Indonesia will not have effective policy and regulation which
has capability to drive traffic and transport management to facilitate the needs on appropriate
people mobility, and freight and logistic.
Graph 1. Trend of Total Population of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia (1949 – 2019)
2. Imbalance of motor vehicle composition (car, bus, truck and motor cycle) and the needs on
appropriate public transportation and freight/logistic caused worsening of energy utilization for
this sector. In the 2019 for instance, road transportation was responsible for 68.69 million KL of
fuels (gasoline and diesel fuel). Indeed, it emitted high concentration of emission of both local air
pollution parameters, as well as green-house gas emissions. Nation-wide, concentration of air
pollution parameter could reach the total emission load 26.92 M-tons p.a. meanwhile
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concentration of CO2 could be reach 255.38 M-tonsCO2e p.a. (2019)1. The total demand on fuels
and also these vehicular emissions tend to increase aggressively, depending on government policy
and regulation on vehicular emissions reduction strategy for local air pollution as well as GHG
emissions. For the air pollution reduction strategy, it depends on the Government Regulation No
41/1999 toward Air Pollution Control with its technical implementing regulation, and National
Act No 16/2016 toward Ratification of Paris Agreement with its Indonesia’s NDC, a commitment
to reduce GHGs by 2030.
Graph 2: AAQM in Jakarta 2012-2017, it was declining slightly but still higher than the standard for
PM2.5, PM10, SOx, and O3.
2.2. Related Law and Regulation on Emission Control
2.2.1. National Act No 4/1982
3. Environmental law was first introduced through the enactment of Law No. 4/1982 on
Environmental Management (Environmental Management Act or EMA 1982). This Act
attempted to consolidate environmental management in one comprehensive act, with regard to
recommendation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Stockholm 1972 which
was adopted by establishing new ministerial –Ministry of Development Planning and
Environment– in 1978. The step also triggered the present of civil society movement on
environmental issue that was led by groups of out-doors activity, and NGOs2.
1
Safrudin, et al, CO2 Transport Emission Reduction Strategy –up dated report of first edition 2017–, KPBB, 2020
2
Kelompok Sepuluh (The Ten Group) was born in 1978 and was facilitated by Minister of Development Planning
and Environment to accommodate civil society movement on environment. The backbone of Kelompok Sepuluh
are the activist from the group of out-doors activity and NGO.
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4. Enactment of Law No. 23/1997 on Environmental Management (also known as the
Environmental Management Act or EMA 1997) that served as the basis for the evaluation and
adjustment of all laws that contain applicable environmental provisions. One of the important
provisions of the EMA 1997 was the recognition of the right of every person to a good and healthy
environment and to environmental information.
5. Implementation of Government Regulation (PP) No. 41/1999 on Air Pollution Control which
relates to air quality management.
 This PP imposed several standards: ambient air quality standards, emission standards for
industrial activities and motor vehicles, and Pollutant Standard Index (PSI).
 Local governments need these technical guidelines to develop and implement policies,
strategies and action plans for air quality management in their respective areas.
 The regulation allows provincial governments to set regional vehicle emission standards,
industrial emission standards, and ambient air quality standards that to be more stringent than
or at least equivalent to the national standards. However, city governments have no authority
to issue either emission standards or ambient air quality standards.
 Act No. 22/1999 on Regional Autonomy and Government Regulation and No. 25/2000
Government Authority and Provincial Authority as Regional Autonomy are two regulations
that determine how air quality management is shared between the national and local
governments.
6. Act No. 22/1999 has been superseded by Act No. 32/2004 on regional autonomy, although the
national government still plays a vital role in establishing legislation, financial, regulations, and
guidelines as well as providing human resources development on air quality management.
7. EMA No. 32/2009 replaces EMA No. 23/1997 - The EMA 2009 introduces several new
principles and provisions where was not covered in the previous Acts. It also attempts to integrate
and harmonize the responsibility of central, provincial and district governments in environmental
management. In Jakarta, the local government has been mandated through Government
Regulation No. 25 to implement environmental management at the local level. The Environmental
Management Board DKI Jakarta (BPHLD DKI) is responsible for monitoring ambient AQ,
including roadside monitoring. Their task also includes the coordination of other agencies on
various environmental issues. Other government agencies include the local Transportation Office
(Dishub) through the Traffic and Road Transport Division that is mandated to implement periodic
vehicle tests and to manage traffic and transport and the local Development Planning Board
(BAPPEDA), which is responsible for planning the region’s transport system and integrating this
with land use planning.
2.2.2. Management of Mobile Sources
8. The 1999 Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree (No. 1585/K/32/MPE) required the
phase out of lead in gasoline for the whole country by 1 January 2003. Unleaded gasoline has been
available to residents of greater Jakarta from July 2001.
9. Act No. 22/2001 concerning Oil and Gas is the legal basis for the provision of cleaner fuel through
the implementation of fuel specifications set by the Directorate General of Oil and Gas. This Act
allows companies other than the state-owned oil company Pertamina to produce and distribute
12
fuel. In Jakarta, the standards for in-use vehicles are stricter than those of the national Government
as notified under the 2001 Governor of DKI Jakarta Decree No. 1041. This legislation was
implemented to support the development of the inspection and maintenance system for private
passenger vehicles in Jakarta. This inspection and maintenance program that was introduced in
2000 required all vehicles to comply with the emission quality standards.
10. Some provinces have issued bylaws to prevent, control, monitor and mitigate air pollution. The
province of Jakarta is one of the first to have issued such a bylaw (39 Act No. 2/2005). Jakarta
issued a series of implementing regulations that includes: Gas Fuel Utilization for Public Transport
and Government Operational Vehicles (Government Regulation No. 141/2007), Vehicle
Emission Test and Vehicle Maintenance (Government Regulation No. 92/2007), Non-Smoking
Areas (Government Regulation No. 75/2005 and No. 88/2010), and Emission Reduction Action
Governor Instruction No 66/2019), and Transfer Fee for EV (Governor Decree No 3/2020).
11. The enacted Act No. 22/2009 which supersedes the Act No. 14/1992 on Traffic and Road
Transportation is the legal basis for the management of land transportation, including the control
of vehicle emissions. Consequently, numerous programs have been implemented in Jakarta and
throughout Indonesia to help reduce emissions from motor vehicles. These include the following:
 Blue Sky Program  Park and Ride Program
 Wahana Tata Nugraha Award  TOD (Transit Oriented Development)
 Gas conversion  Bio-fuel with B30 (today with pilot
 Trans Jakarta Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) plant to produce 10 KL/day of HVO,
 Scrappage of 2-stroke 2-3-wheelers hydro-treated vegetable oil)
 Car Free Day (CFD)  Sustainable urban transport
 Inspection and maintenance  Soot-free urban bus fleets
 Bicycle program and infrastructure  The Greater Jakarta Agglomeration
development Transport Master Plan
 Non-motorized mobility (pedestrian  Improvement on e-Train management
facilities and bike-lane development) and services
 Traffic congestion control with odd  LRT
and even policy as precondition for  MRT
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) which  Pedestrian movement
will be applied in 2021  Bike To Work
 Go Gas Program, include CNG for  Mass Public Transport User
three-wheeler and BRT Association
 BRT and Pedestrians Improvement in  e-Bus Trial for BRT Trans Jakarta.
Jakarta
2.2.3. Management of Stationary Sources
12. It has not been specifically regulated yet in the air quality management, but Act No. 5/1984 on
Industrial Activities prohibits activities that damage the quality of the environment and ecosystem.
The PP No. 13/1995 on Industrial Business License, one of the implementing regulations of this
Act, binds industry to comply with environmental regulations as one of the requirements to obtain
a business license. In addition, PP No. 27/1999 concerning Environmental Impact Analysis and
13
its implementing guidelines require the proponents of activities to prepare and implement an
environmental management and monitoring plan.
13. Act No. 30/2007 concerning Energy requires energy management to be based on the principle of
sustainability and environmental protection, among others. This Act regulates energy resilience,
new and renewable energy, energy prices, and the establishment of National Energy Council
(NEC). The NEC is led by the President along with members selected and chosen by the House
of Representatives. NEC formulates energy policy, designs the overall national energy plan,
determines the emergency response plan in the event of an energy crisis, and supervises the
implementation of cross-sectorial policies by the relevant government institutions in the field of
energy. This Act also stipulates that energy conservation is given incentives, while energy
dissipation is imposed disincentives.
14. Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006 concerning National Energy Policy set the target for energy
mix by 2025. The regulation states that the contribution of fossil oil as a source of energy is
targeted to be reduced from 52% in the year 2003 to 26.2% in the year 2025 of the total energy
demand. While for other sources of energy, contribution of geothermal is targeted to increase
from 3.1% to 3.8%, natural gas from 21.2% to 30.6%, coal from 19.7% to 32.7%, and renewable
energy from 0.2% to 4.4%. On the other hand, the contribution of hydropower is targeted to be
reduced from 3.8% to 2.4%.
15. Presidential Instruction No. 10/2005 concerning Energy Conservation and Regulation of the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 31/2005 on Energy Efficiency require government
agencies to undertake energy conservation in offices, office equipment, and transportation, and
for industries to undertake energy audits and promote the use of energy saving products or
technology.
2.2.4. Management of Area Sources
16. Waste burning is another source of air pollution which requires attention. Cities face the challenge
of efficiently managing solid waste. The waste collection capacity and disposal are generally
insufficient to serve the city 100 percent. In Jakarta, waste collection rate is at 97 percent, it plans
to follow the initiative of some cities (e.g., Pontianak and Bekasi) on Clean Development
Mechanism projects for the city waste landfill. Indonesia is also the only ASEAN nation yet to
ratify the ASEAN Agreement on Trans-boundary Haze Pollution, despite being the primary haze-
producing nation in the region. However, Indonesia’s parliament has taken steps to ratify the
agreement by 2015.
2.2.5. Act 16/2016 on Ratification of Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC
17. The Act ratifies the Paris Agreement to support Indonesia’s mitigation and adaptation to climate
change, and support Indonesia to obtain access to funding sources, technology transfer, and
capacity building for implementing mitigation and adaptation actions. The Act also serves as the
foundation in the development of In Indonesia’s first Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC), in which the government of Indonesia has pledged to reduce GHG emission
unconditionally up to 29% in 2030 and up to 41% with international support. The NDC focuses
14
on five sectors that can contribute significantly to the emission reduction targets: energy, industry,
forestry, agriculture and waste.
2.2.6. National Master Plan for Industry (RIPIN) 2015 – 2035)
18. The RIPIN, enacted through Government Regulation No.14/2015, is the guiding document for
Indonesia’s industry with a vision to strengthen Indonesia’s industries based on innovation and
technology. Vehicle transport industry is classified as one of the 10 priority industries, and one of
the 6 mainstay industries. The document indicates the direction of vehicle efficiency and electric
vehicle (EV) technology development by phases from 2015 to 2035.
Table 1. Roadmap Auto-technology development

Phase Technology to be developed
2015 – 2019  Engine development for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
and EV
 Development of more precise and efficient power train
2020 – 2024  Development of hybrid engine for motor vehicles (including
conventional engine, gas engine, and EV)
 Development of more precise and efficient power train
 Development of hydrogen fuel cell for motor vehicle
2025 – 2035  Development of hybrid engine for motor vehicle (including
conventional engine, gas engine, EV and fuel cell)
19. The launch of this document aims to guide the automotive industry in Indonesia to work together
toward the planned roadmap by building synergy with domestic automotive components
manufacturers in order to build more resilient industry in line with the vision.
2.2.7. Government Regulation No 73/2019
20. The luxury tax and the LCGC program were reviewed in 2019 and subsequently revised through
the Government Regulation No. 73/2019, which will be effective starting October 2021. The
most significant difference from the new regulation is that the luxury tax rates are no longer
calculated only based on engine capacity, instead it takes consideration of efficiency and emission.
21. Under the new regulation, all LCGC vehicle categories is redefined and expanded. For gasoline
and diesel vehicles the fuel economy limit for gasoline vehicles remained to be 20 km/l (liter of
gasoline), whereas the limit for diesel vehicles is revised to be 21.8 km/l (liter of diesel). The new
regulation introduces the limit for CO2 emission of no more than 120 g/km for passenger car with
engine capacity of up to 1,200 cc (gasoline) and 1,500 cc (diesel). These vehicles will subject to
15% of luxury tax tariff from 20% tax base, which resulting in a tax rate of 3%. The LCGC
program is no longer the only fuel efficient programme that is getting incentive, since the
government also included hybrid, flexi-engine vehicles, and electric vehicles in their Low Carbon
Emission Vehicle (LCEV) programme. If the production of the vehicles meets the minimum local
content requirement, the tax base of luxury tax rate of PHEV, BEV and FCEV with fuel
consumption equal to 28 km/l or CO2 emission of up to 100 g/km is zero. If the production of
the vehicles does not meet the minimum local content requirement (e.g. imported EVs), the luxury
tax rate of PHEV, BEV and FCEV is 15%.
15
2.2.8. National Energy Master Plan (RUEN)
22. The development of RUEN was led by the National Energy Committee (Dewan Energi Nasional).
The process involved series of meetings with key government agencies and it reflects the results
of a comprehensive analysis. The set-up of the national energy committee and development of
RUEN are mandated by Act No. 30/2007, which serves as the highest regulation concerning
energy in Indonesia.
23. Prior to the RUEN, the National Energy Policy (KEN), which was meant to be the guiding
document for energy policy was enacted through Government Regulation No 79/2014. KEN
provides direction of national energy management in order to achieve energy security and to
support broader sustainable national development. The implementation timeline for KEN is until
2050, and RUEN, which was enacted through Presidential Regulation No. 22/2017 serves as the
strategic document for energy management using the same timeline as KEN (until 2050).
2.2.9. Presidential Regulation No. 55/2019
24. This regulation marked a new chapter in BEV development in Indonesia. The regulation is not
only aimed to provide clear guidance for the automotive industry but also provided opportunities
for local government and universities to be involved in the process. Provisions from this decree
could be categorized into four groups: (i) responsible and leading ministries/agencies for
implementation, (ii) BEV definition and development of its technical specification, (iii) BEV
manufacturing capacity, and (iv) market transition from ICE to BEV.
2.2.10. Ministry of Forestry Decree on Euro IV emission standard
25. In 2017, the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry issued a decree (MoEF Decree
No. P.20/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/3/2017) on Emission standard limits for new motor
vehicle types and current production laws that require new and current production of gasoline
vehicles to comply with Euro IV standards by 7 October 2018, and diesel powered vehicles to
comply with the Euro IV standards by 7 April 2021.
26. Maximum permissible emission limits for new heavy-duty vehicle types and current production of
imported or domestically assembled vehicles were first established by MoEF Decree No.
141/2003 on 23 September 2003. The regulation required all new vehicle types to meet Euro II
standards beginning 1 January 2005 and for current production of vehicles to meet Euro II
standards beginning 1 January 2007. It was later amended through MoEF Decree No. 04/2009,
which pushed the implementation dates back to September 2010.
27. MoEF Decree No. P.20/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/3/2017 supersedes previous regulations

and requires all new vehicle types and current production to meet Euro IV standards by 7 October
2018 for gasoline and by 7 April 2021 for diesel powered vehicles. The significant differentiation
in implementation dates is due to the current availability of low sulfur fuel gasoline in Indonesia,
and the lack of availability of low sulfur diesel fuel. Low sulfur fuel is not projected to be available
16
for wide use in the region until at least 2021, as geopolitical-economy effect to the stock of dirty
fuel in the region which has tend to be dumped to Indonesia market3.
2.2.11. Government Regulation No 41/1999
28. This government regulation stipulates set up of National Ambient Air Monitoring Stations
(NAAQS), and periodically monitors air quality from its Air Quality Monitoring Stations (AQMS),
and analyses its results. It also provides room for local government to set up regional vehicle
emission standards, industrial emission standards, and ambient air quality standards that are more
stringent or at least equivalent to the national standards. It also provides the framework to MOEF
to issue pollution standards for air pollution, industry and in other sectors. The existing air
pollution standards fall below WHO standards and experts in the field feel that these standards
need to be regularly revised and should also tightened on the ambient air quality standard, as well
as tile-pipe and stack emission standard.
2.3. Objectives
29. The objective the activity is to prepare information materials on the benefits and impacts of Euro
4/IV and develop a position paper outlining a Euro 6/VI roadmap for Indonesia; with scope of
works as follows:
1. Consult with relevant stakeholders on the key issues to be highlighted in the primer for Euro
4/IV implementation;
2. Estimate the vehicular emission load in Indonesia;
3. Estimate the CBA Euro 6/VI Standard in Indonesia;
4. Analyze key reports and studies regarding Euro 4/IV and adapt for the primer, e.g. Experience
of Thailand, reports of the International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT);
5. Design an annotated outline of primer on the benefits and impacts of Euro 4/IV for
Indonesia;
6. Prepare final primer for benefits and impact of Euro 4/IV; and
7. Prepare a position paper outlining a Euro 6/VI roadmap for Indonesia.
3
Safrudin, et al, 2018, Old and New Year Notification toward Dirty Imported Fuel, Press Release, Jakarta, KPBB.
17
Chapter 2
Air Pollution, Green-house Gas, and Health Effect
2.5. Ambient Air Quality
30. Air pollution is a thread for people in urban areas especially who live in the cities with high density
of motor vehicle traffic. Most of major parameters exceeded the national standard, even beyond
WHO standard. For almost the whole year since 2012, AQI in Jakarta exposed air quality with
the unhealthy category with critical parameter PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and O3, even though any
increasing its slightly until 2017 but it is still exceeded the standard. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, air
pollution level increased especially for PM2.5. Trend of AAQM data in DKI Jakarta in 2018 showed
us that annual mean for PM2.5 concentration is 45.6 µg/m3 (UNHEALTHY) with min 1 µg/m3
and max 194 µg/m3 (DANGER). While in 2019, annual mean for PM2.5 concentration 1 January
– 30 July 2019 is 46.1 µg/m3 (UNHEALTHY) with min 1 µg/m3 and max 194 µg/m3
(DANGER); with refer to WHO guideline with standard of 10 µg/m3. Annual means for PM10
concentration in 2017 is 65.8 µg/m3 (UNHEALTHY) with min 19 µg/m3 and max 144 µg/m3
(DANGER); refer to WHO guideline with standard of 20 µg/m3. Annual means for PM2.5
concentration in 2017 is 38.9 µg/m3 (UNHEALTHY) with min 5 µg/m3 and max 179 µg/m3
(DANGER); refer to WHO guideline with standard of 10 µg/m3. Annual mean for CO
concentration in 2017 is 90 µg/m3 (GOOD); refer to WHO guideline with standard of 7000
µg/m3. Annual mean for SO2 concentration in 2017 is 44.6 µg/m3 (UNHEALTHY) with min
18 µg/m3 and max 65 µg/m3 (VERY UNHEALTHY); refer to WHO guideline with standard 20
µg/m3. Annual means for NO2 concentration in 2017 adalah 18 µg/m3 (GOOD); refer to WHO
guideline with standard 40 µg/m3. Annual means for O3 concentration in 2017 adalah 98 µg/m3
(GOOD) with min 22 µg/m3 and max 230 µg/m3 (VERY UNHEALTHY); refer to WHO
guideline with standard 50 µg/m3.
Graph 3. PM2.5 Concentration in Jakarta, 2018
18
Graph 4. PM2.5 Concentration in Jakarta, 2019
2.6. Air Pollution and Pandemic Covid-19
31. Air pollution in Jakarta in 2019 was relatively higher compared than previous years, this was caused
by the fact that 2019 had longer dry season. Because of this case, then worsening air pollution
was happened for longer days and almost in the whole year AQI was in unhealthy category.
Entering the year of 2020, air pollution was also still under unhealthy category until the second
period of ten days implementation of social distancing to response the pandemic Covid-19 that
was started since 16 March 2020, then any trend decreasing of air pollution to be 18.46 µg/m3
compare to the January – 15 March 2020, which has annual means 40.67 µg/m3. Even though,
then it increased again since 5 April 2020 and also when the PSBB (Large Scale Social Distancing)
was started to be implemented since 10 April 2020. Any public disobedience that was caused by
polemic between central government and local/city government in relation to set up the policy to
threat the pandemic of Covid-19 with no effective decision making process. Then, people shifted
from obedience to conduct social distancing on first of 2 x 10 days since 16 March 2020 to be
disobedience after that to response the inconsistency policy and poor communication among
central government against local/city government. People disobedience has led to increasing of
annual means of PM2.5 to be 51.26 µg/m3. At this time, total traffic was decreased 27.23%
compare to the time before implementing social distancing. While, on 16 March to 4 April 2020
or 2 x 10 days implementation of social distancing, total traffic was decreased 72.77%.
2.7. Ambient Air Quality Standard and Monitoring
32. Ambient Air Quality Standard in Indonesia is established with refer to the Government Regulation
No 41/1999 toward Air Pollution Control. The standard is higher rather than WHO Standard
and also other countries’ standard. Refer to the disclaimer article on that Government Regulation,
which the standard needs to be reviewed at least in every 5 years with possibility to be tightened
for people protection from air pollution. Since 2010, Ministry of Environment and Forestry which
got support from multi-stakeholder, include CSO and private sector have prepared revision such
as formulated academic paper, and legal drafting to revise government regulation, and being done
legislation process; but this effort has not finished yet until now. And just on 13 July 2020, Ministry
of Environment and Forestry issued Ministerial Decree No
19
P.14/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/7/2020 toward Air Pollution Standard Index to revise the
previous one that has not accommodated yet for PM2.5 as parameter that should be considered
on Air Pollution Standard Index calculation.
33. In the last 5 years, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry deployed the AAQMS in 14 cities,
such as Padang, Jambi, Pekanbaru, Palembang, Pontianak, Palangkaraya, Balikpapan, Kaltara,
Jakarta, Surabaya and Denpasar. The AAQMS is produced domestically and is used for
continuous air quality monitoring, and designed to be able to monitor parameters PM2.5, PM10,
O3, SO2, NOx, and CO. Jakarta city also has 5 stations that are placed in 5 mayor city; beside
those, there are also 3 mobile AAQMS. Other air quality monitoring stations are organized by
private sector which has business on product of low cost sensor of air quality monitoring, and
other product which has correlation to “air purifier devise”. For low cost sensor air quality
monitoring also is developed by some university, even though it just for air quality research
education for student.
34. Sources of air pollution relatively are changing from time to time. Source of apportionment of
PM10 in 2012 show us that 47% from transportation, 22% from industry, 11% from domestic,
11% road dust, 5% open waste burning, and 4% from construction. Meanwhile in 2018, PM10
the mostly from 49% from transportation, 22% industry, 11% Road Dust 11%, 9% Domestic, 5%
open waste burning, 4% construction; then for other parameters, it could be explained as follow:
 PM2.5, 57% from transportation, 25% from industry, 8% Road Dust, 3% Domestic, 2% open
waste burning, 5% construction.
 SOx, 72% from transportation, 27% industry (include power plant), and domestic 1%.
 Nox, 85% from transportation, 13% from industry, 1% domestic, and 1% open waste burning.
 CO, 84% from transportation, 12% domestic, and industry 4%.
2.8. Emission Load
35. Methodology. Emissions load is calculated with refer to total population of motor vehicle which
is multiplied by total VKT p.a.; multiplied by fuel economy; and multiplied by its emission factor.
The total population of motor vehicle is taken from compiled data among BPS data, Traffic Police
data, and total annual selling data; and then deducted with correction data refer to the potential
scrapped car data4. While for VKT is taken from data survey toward vehicle kilometer traveled in
17 cities which are represented Indonesia5. Fuel economy is taken from average vehicular fuel
consumption in Indonesia6, then emission factor is taken from Minister of Environment Decree
No 12/2010 toward Air Pollution Control in Sub-national/cities/regency.
4
Safrudin, et al, Trend of Motor Vehicle Population in Indonesia, KPBB, 2020.
5
Safrudin, et al, Vehicle Kilometer Traveled in Indonesia, KPBB, 2016.
6
Safrudin, et al, CBA Fuel Economy and Fuel Quality in Indonesia, UNEP/USEPA/MOE, 2012.
20
Ea = Emission load for a parameter
VKTb,c = total vehicle kilometer travel per year for the b category of motor
vehicle and utilize the c category of fuel (km/year)
FEa,b,c = emission factor or emission level of parameter a which is emitted
vehicle b and utilize c category of fuel (g/km).
36. Base on above mentioned methodology, we found that minimum estimation of emission load for
air pollution in the Greater Jakarta with total 19,165 ton/day with source from motor cycle
(44.53%), bus (21.43%), truck (17.70%), diesel car (1.96%), gasoline car (14.15%), and three-
wheeler (.23%). Then, emission load for GHG (green-house gas) emission (CO2) with total
318,840 ton/day with source from bus (45.72%), truck (33.26%), motor cycle (15.45%), gasoline
car (3.12%), diesel car (2.44%), and three-wheeler (.01%).
37. The minimum estimation of emission load at nation-wide is different with the Greater Jakarta,
that (emission load in national-wide) has total 39,754.51 ton per day (2019), with motor cycle as
the largest polluter with 68.80% or 27,350.05 ton/day, then is followed by gasoline car, truck, bus,
diesel car and three wheeler with percentages each of them as follow: 12.12% or 4,817.86 ton/day;
10.00 % or 3,976.91 ton/day, 7.13% or
2,833.30 ton/day, 1.95% or 773.24 ton/day and
.01% or 3.14 ton/day. Meanwhile for CO2
vehicular emission load at national-wide has
total 699,674.31 ton/day (2019), again motor
cycle as largest polluter with 40.83% or
285,663.42 ton/day then it is followed by truck,
bus, gasoline car, diesel car and three-wheeler
with percentage each of them as follow: 29.64%
or 207,362.54 ton/day, 18.03% or 126,163.32
ton/day, 6.45% or 45,156.59 ton/day, 5.04% or
35,295.39 ton/day and .0047% or 33.05
ton/day.
Graph 5a. National Vehicular CO2 Source Apportionment
(ton/year)
Graph 5. National Vehicular Source Apportionment – air pollution (ton/year)
21
38. Methodology. In relation to Table 2. Estimation of Vehicular Fuel Consumption
calculate the estimation of in Indonesia 2019 (L)
vehicular fuel consumption,
we used total motor vehicle Type of Vehicles Fuel Consumption p.a. Percentage
at nation-wide with its Diesel Car 6,920,246,541.86 10.08%
category and its fuel
economy level7, and total Gasoline Car 9,160,012,413.67 13.34%
VKT p.a. Then the 3-Wheelers 7,665,000.00 0.01%
estimation showed that Bus 9,291,096,900.00 13.53%
gasoline has share 51% Truck 17,682,076,863.00 25.74%
rather than diesel fuel 49% of Motor Cycle 25,624,976,905.70 37.31%
total fuel consumption Total 68,686,074,624.23
68,686,074.62 KL p.a.
(2019). Similar with its emissions, motor cycle is the largest fuel consumption with 37.31%, then
followed by truck with 25.74%, bus with 13.53%, gasoline car with 13.34%, diesel car with 10.08%,
and three-wheeler with .01%; for the total volume, see the table below.
Graph 6. Fuel share for motor vehicle.
39. With refer to the data, motor cycle has the poorest fuel
consumption. Data in 2019 show us that motor cycle
responsible for 73.65% or 25,624,976.91 KL of
national-wide gasoline demand compared to gasoline
powered car which has 26.33% or 9,160,012.41 KL
gasoline demand, and three-wheelers which has .02% or
7,665.00 KL. Of course, it is cause obstacle for
government in relation to provide enough supply for
national gasoline demand, more over national supply is
not able to fulfill the demand. Finally, government
allows Pertamina (state owned oil company) to import
gasoline in the range of 40 – 70%8 of national demand,
even though this effort also has affected on gasoline Graph 7. Gasoline share
quality degradation rather than the fuel which is comply
7
ibid
8
Safrudin, et al, 2019, To Release Importation Traps of Fuels, Press Release, Jakarta, KPBB.
22
to the vehicle technology requirement. As we know Indonesia adopted Euro 2/II standard since
2005 (new type vehicle), and 2007 (current production vehicle)9 as part of air pollution control
strategy. Even though Euro 2/II has been adopted, Indonesia never really phased-out fuel types
that are not comply to adopted Euro 2/II standard. Gasoline RON 88 for instance is categorized
as fuel type with certain duty (JBPT, Jenis BBM dengan Penugasan Tertentu) under the
government mandate in relation to fulfills people needs on transport energy, especially low income
people10. Even though gasoline with brand Premium Gasoline, actually it is regular gasoline with
RON 88, Sulfur 200 ppm, benzene more than 5%, aromatic more than 50%, olefin content more
than 35%. Another in-comply gasoline quality is Pertalite 90, with detergent additive and other
parameters which is similar with Premium 88. Pertalite 90 is new brand but it is not complying
with the vehicle technology requirement that is adopted in Indonesia since 2005. Pertalite 90 was
launched for the first time in 24 July 2015 at the beginning of first term of President Joko Widodo,
and then not more than 2 years Pertalite 90 was able to take the lead on market share of gasoline
supply in Indonesia, and shifted the position of Premium 88.
2.9. Health Effect
40. The air pollution has effects on various risk factors for morbidity and mortality. With refer to the
epidemiology, there is extensive effect of outdoor air pollution on human health, and it is
confirmed to also happen in various different countries. At the various situation of air pollution,
any possibility that air pollution could be has many substance such as particulates (TSP, PM10,
PM2.5, PM1), NOx, and SO2, CO, VOC, O3, and other parameters including heavy metal and
has the potential to expose people, and able to trigger more negative effects related with
illness/dieses.
41. With regards to the situation, it is a necessity to calculate economical valuation toward health effect
of air pollution as basis to calculate measurable control strategy which includes cost benefit
analysis. By using the methods, we could estimate how much money that is paid by people in
relation to gain services on medical treatment of illness/dieses caused air pollution. With refer to
various epidemiology studies, it is shown that PM is considered to be a useful indicator for
measuring the impact of outdoor air pollution on human health11. And in the past, it was
uncommon to valuate economic value of health effect of air pollution, and most of the studies
were made to serve the data toward total number of illness/dieses which are caused by and or
have correlation with air pollution. To calculate the economic value of health effect of air
pollution, it is a necessity to have epidemiology evidence with selected health effect which are
linked to air pollution; selected health effect are sufficiently different from each other to avoid
double counting on calculation medical health cost depended on ICD Codes (International
Classification of Diseases); selected health effect able to express in financial term. Then the study is
9
In Indonesia, the emission standard is divided in 2 categories: new type vehicle and current production vehicle.
New type vehicle is addressed for totally new type of motor vehicle with its design, and innovation in relation with
its emission standard and safety level. While, for current production vehicle is existing type of motor vehicle which
is needed to be reproduced.
10
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree.
11
Safrudin, et al, CBA Fuel Economy and Fuel Quality Initiative in Indonesia, UNEP/USEPA/MOE, 2012.
23
an economic valuation study to present the monetary value estimation for the adverse human
health effects resulted from ambient air pollution. The study evaluates the monetized values
associated with the morbidity related to air pollution based on hospital admission data in Jakarta.
Aggregated data was used for estimating COI for the individuals; it covers the data of hospital
admission (morbidity) in both of in-patient and out-patient. Then the estimation was used to
extrapolate the total amount of medical cost of illness and or dieses which have correlation with
air pollution and its total prevalence.
42. With refer to the above mentioned Table 3. Estimation Health Effects of Jakarta Air
methodology, Health Effect - Jakarta Case, Pollution
2016 show us that 58.3% of total population
of Jakarta (10,280,832) were suffering from
various air pollution-related diseases/illness,
and must pay direct medical cost in total of
IDR 51.2 trillion ~ USD 3.9 billion12. For
type and total cases of air pollution related
dieses/illness; could increase in the future
based on the environmental situations
especially those which have correlation with lack on air quality.
43. The findings is also relevant with the WHO’s report which was released in 2014 that 1/8 of death
worldwide (2012) or approximately 7 million people died because of cases related to air pollution
exposure, where 68.000 cases happened in Indonesia13. It means that everyday there are 165
people who died because of health issues that have correlation with air pollution.
44. Air Pollution in other cities also affecting various illness/dieses. It tends to increase 503,520 cases
of coronary artery dieses in Medan, and also tends to increase cases of ARI in Bandung, Denpasar,
Surabaya, and South Tangsel14.
45. Many cases of children with down syndrome, autism, decreasing of intellectual ability, wrist drop,
foot-drop, tremor, unproportioned body, physical disability, and also adult with kidney failure,
hypertension, pneumonia, etc; who live in the surrounding of ULAB (used lead acid battery)
smelter. Greater Jakarta has at least 71 hotspot of illegal home scale lead smelters (back yard
smelter), which have high pollution for the air, soil and water. Even though Indonesia has 5 (five)
legal lead smelter, but lack on nurturing, monitoring, control, and law enforcement on hazardous
waste management, then supply chain of ULAB is control by illegal ULAB middle-man and
distributed to the illegal smelter with tend to gain more profit margin rather than deliver it to the
legal smelter. More than 200 hotspot of lead smelter in the whole of Indonesia with get the
support from middleman who controls 55.22% of ULAB trading in Indonesia15.
12
Safrudin, et al, Up dated Study on Health Effect of Air Pollution, KPBB, 2016.
13
Release WHO /06, 25 March 2014
14
BPS, Center Bureau of Statistic, Respiratory Illness Prevalence, 2019
15
Safrudin A, Karya Ersada, The Chain of ULAB Trading in Indonesia, Ministry of Environmen, Indonesian Lead
Information Center, Jakarta, 2013.
24
Graph 8. BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children and its correlation lead pollution
in the air, floor and ceiling window in residential areas of Greater Jakarta, 2016
46. ULAB is form of residue of battery especially from motor vehicle with total 589,680 ton p.a.
(2019), which from that total number, 325,680 ton is being control by middleman and processed
in illegal smelters. Of course, as illegal smelter, it has exceeded pollution levels of heavy metal in
the air, water and land16. The legal smelter controls and process only 264,000 ton p.a. of ULAB,
which 5 smelter in Tangerang, Cikarang, Tegal, Lamongan and Pasuruan.
Table 4. BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children and its correlation lead pollution
in the air, floor and ceiling window in residential areas of Greater Jakarta, 2016
LOCATION SITE BLL Soil House Floor Dust Window
n med min max n med n med n med
Kelapa Dua Site 1 41 8.3 2.2 14.7 34 1,289 68 32 68 971
Dadap Site 2 37 8.7 2.3 14.9 45 1,201 90 35 90 853
Rawa Buaya Site 3 45 7.9 2.9 13.9 42 8,149 84 47 84 423
Cipondoh Ste 4 36 9.8 3.2 15.2 44 6,501 88 44 88 546
Cinangka Site 5 39 14.2 3.8 33.7 41 182,678 82 621 82 6387
TOTAL 198
Graph 9. BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children in 8 cities/regencies:

the mostly above threshold level, 2016
16
Safrudin, et al, Current Status and Strategic Action to Solve Polution Problem of ULAB Recycling, Indonesian Lead
Information Center, 2019
25
Chapter 3
Vehicular Emission Control Strategy
3.5. Control Strategy to Combat Air Pollution and Green-house Gas
47. Control strategy on air pollution and green-house gas reduction is the strategy which is addressed
to control emission from the sources that have potential to expose related air pollution, and green-
house gas. Control strategy would be implemented in 5 (five) aspects as follows: clean energy,
lower emission technology, land use, industrial zone, traffic and transport management, emission
standard, and law enforcement. The 5 (five) aspects should be applied parallel as harmony, and
synergy program which will have integration and correlation one and each other; including
absoIDRtion of CO2 in the environment as part of CO2 removal, and sustainable marine
management.
48. As part of control strategy on air pollution, and green-house gas reduction, vehicular emission is
addressed to get problem solving with utilize technological approach, as well as social politic
approach, and also monetary approach. According to the control strategy on air pollution and
green-house gas reduction, it is also covering 5 (five) aspect that must be designed and formulated
as PPP (public private partnership) of participatory action plan, as follow: aspect of clean energy,
aspect of lower emission technology, aspect of land use, traffic and transport management, aspect
emission standard, and aspect law enforcement.
3.6. Integrated Vehicle Emission Reduction Strategy
49. The aspect of clean energy will cover how to prepare the cleaner energy to shifting the dirty energy
for motor vehicle. It could be in the form of cleaner gasoline such as unleaded gasoline,
reformulated gasoline, etc., ultra-low diesel fuel, CNG, sustainable bio-fuel such as bio-ethanol
and HVO (hydro-treated vegetable oil) or green diesel fuel, renewable electricity, etc. Indeed, the
type or variance of cleaner energy should be produced refer to the vehicle technology requirement.
50. The aspect of lower emission vehicle technology will cover how could we prepare the vehicle
technology with lower emission, such as catalytic converter and diesel particulates filter (DPF) that
should be installed at ICE technology of vehicle, flexi-car technology, NGV or natural gas vehicle
technology, low carbon emission vehicle (LCEV), electrified vehicle (EV) with several technology
option possibilities: BEV, HEV, FCEV, etc. The lower emission vehicle technology also should
be addressed to create vehicle which is able to reduce its energy consumption in one step to reduce
CO2.
51. The aspect of land use, traffic and transport management should give alternate options with other
lower emission mobility and freight/logistic; such as changing mobility behavior, develop
appropriate infrastructure, adopt green freight and logistic, and intelligent traffic system. Changing
mobility behavior could be developed through improving driving behavior with eco-driving, better
mind-set with vehicle utility; promoting TDM (transport demand management) scheme with its
pull and push strategy to shift to mass public transportation, and non-motorized transport
26
(walking and cycling). Adopting green freight and logistic should be taken through the use of lower
emission and fuel economy technology/management, include the possibility using IT (information
technology) on freight and logistic which enable to increase utility of freight and logistic
device/equipment. Adopting intelligent traffic system should be addressed to guide the
effectiveness and efficiency on traffic and transport management. Then, developing appropriate
infrastructure should be taken to facilitate related program on changing mobility behavior, green
freight and logistic, and intelligent traffic system; therefore all of the action plans on the aspect of
land use, traffic and transport management could be able to reduce vehicular emission effective,
and efficiently.
52. Aspect of emission standard is a standard that is established by government in relation to gain
appropriate ambient air quality. The standard should cover ambient air quality standard, road-site
air quality standard as well as tile-pipe and stack emission standard; and regulated as integrated
standard which able to create harmony in relation to control the air pollution. So, tile-pipe and
stack emission standard should be supported in relation to create better air quality which would
be measured refer to the ambient air quality standard. It is important that the standard should be
reviewed and revised every 5 years as it has been mandated by the Government Regulation No
41/1999 on Air Pollution Control.
53. Aspect of law enforcement is a necessity in the air pollution control. In the experience, most
people just avoid it, and pretend like everything is always fine, so no need to be enforced to the
all part of the stakeholder who has possibility to break the law on air pollution control. In the fact
is difference, where the mostly people tend to against the law on air pollution control, so almost
all of article which is mandated to be implemented to control the air pollution are not applied well.
The law enforcement should be started by inspection and monitoring then it is followed up by
enforcement refer to the potential breaking the law, and give it with related penalty and or with
possibility to give also the reward to people who respect and applied the law. So, at the law
enforcement aspect, it is important to formulate law enforcement scenario that accommodate the
reward/penalty scheme, including fiscal incentive/disincentive policy, as well as non-fiscal
incentive/disincentive policy such as emphasize the market driven to accommodate this non-fiscal
incentive/disincentive.
27
28
Chart. Scheme of Vehicular Emission Reduction Control Strategy17.
17
Safrudin, et al, Integrated Emission Reduction Strategy, KPBB, 2016.
29
3.7. Motor Vehicle Standard
3.7.1. Implementation Euro 4/IV Standard
54. Adopting Euro Standard of motor vehicle is a part of aspect of lower emission vehicle technology.
The standard covers Euro 1/I, Euro 2/II, Euro 3/III, Euro 4/IV, Euro 5/V and Euro 6/VI.
Each level has its specific requirement in relation to encourage technology adoption with more
stringent standard on safety level for the passenger, and environmental protection with reducing
emission. Indonesia started to adopt Euro Standard by adopting Euro 2/II in 2005 for new type
of motor vehicle, meanwhile for current production vehicle was adopted since 2007; both for car
and motor-cycle. Then the motor-cycle improved its standard to use Euro 3 Standard since
August 2013, and gasoline car to use Euro 4/IV Standard since October 2018 meanwhile for Euro
4/IV Standard of diesel car would implemented by April 2022 (delay from the previous schedule
on April 2021 of one year after pandemic Covid-19 outbreak); even though it is unreasonable with
regard to the schedule has been approved by related key stakeholder and formalized by Ministry
of Environment and Forestry in 10 March 2017, long time before pandemic Covid-19. It is show
us that the business lobby is the fact.
Graph 10. Total Selling Motor Vehicle in Indonesia

30
55. Total sales of motor vehicle Table 5. Total Sales of Motor Vehicle
complies with Euro 4/IV Year Motor Cycle Car Bus Truck Total
Standard reaches 741,576 1995 941,928 216,959 36,917 84,191 1,279,995
units in 2019 and 198.357 1996 1,425,373 301,789 36,389 118,681 1,882,232
units in 2018. Logically, it 1997 1,861,111 230,435 6,488 93,539 2,191,573
will be increased in the 1998 519,404 133,008 6,567 44,175 703,154
future with regard to the 1999 571,953 125,272 6,698 35,959 739,882
implementation of related
2000 982,380 141,110 11,613 78,603 1,213,706
regulation as well as
2001 1,644,133 150,406 8,876 70,159 1,873,574
increasing public awareness
2002 2,318,238 214,114 9,066 88,105 2,629,523
on the need to reduce air
2003 2,814,054 481,795 23,857 181,624 3,501,330
pollution from
2004 3,897,250 579,053 15,117 268,757 4,760,177
transportation sector.
2005 5,113,487 729,753 21,722 605,049 6,470,011
Total selling of Euro 3
2006 4,458,886 721,072 16,211 620,972 5,817,141
motor cycle in Indonesia is
2007 4,722,521 1,254,855 22,294 699,137 6,698,807
2,783,823 units in 2013
2008 6,264,265 389,965 19,747 699,137 7,373,114
when Indonesia started to
adopt Euro 3 Standard. 2009 5,884,021 967,444 30,706 94,137 6,976,308
Then for 2014 until 2019 2010 8,311,095 925,224 9,227 370,765 9,616,311
could be checked at above 2011 7,761,153 623,655 27,679 516,893 8,929,380
table. Total selling of 2012 7,541,842 800,097 4,524 311,609 8,658,072
Heavy Duty (Truck and 2013 8,351,469 895,451 4,054 330,288 9,581,262
Bus) Euro II Standard can 2014 5,876,926 890,951 3,834 313,243 7,084,954
be checked at table on the 2015 5,276,583 748,831 3,743 260,944 6,290,101
side, which totals 7,260 2016 7,000,032 833,287 3,959 187,426 8,024,704
units of bus and 291,711 2017 6,500,246 765,085 7,630 306,592 7,579,553
units of all variance18 of 2018 6,383,108 816,198 8,140 327,075 7,534,521
truck in 2019. 2019 6,487,460 727,950 7,260 291,711 7,514,381
3.7.1.1. Obstacle
56. In relation with implementation of emission standard for motor vehicle, Indonesia faces the
situation which is not smooth, and full of obstacle such as lack of fuel quality which comply with
related current engine technology standard, incoherence with the principal motor vehicle
manufacturer policy, and purchasing power of motor vehicle consumer.
3.7.1.1.1. Lack on Fuel Quality, and Fuel Preference Anomaly
57. According to the situation that many countries just shifted to more stringent motor vehicle
standard, it increases dirty fuels stock at regional oil market. Adopting stringent motor vehicle
standard means also the needs on cleaner and stringent fuel specification which comply to the
adopted engine technology. So, the countries when they adopt stringent vehicle standard, they
apply parallel policy to ban dirty fuel which is not comply with the vehicle standard. Of course, it
would increase dirty fuel stock which is not absorbed by market base on the new stringent vehicle
18
For details can be checked at table at page 62.
31
standard, such as in People Republic of China, Thailand, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines,
etc.
Graph 11. RON Regular Gasoline
Graph 12. The Sulfur Content in Regular Gasoline
58. When Indonesia started to adopt Euro 2/II Standard in 2005/2007, it has also difficulties refer to
the availability of fuel quality which comply with engine vehicle technology. Besides, leaded
gasoline, regular gasoline is also with benzene, olefin, and aromatic that higher rather allowed
maximum level, and lower RON (88). While, the sulfur is complied with the Euro 2/II standard.
More complicated issue was found with diesel fuel, which has lower cetane number, and high
sulfur content (more than 3500 ppm at that time. Even though, Government established new fuel
specification which is comply with Euro 2/II standard, but 3 variances of gasoline and 2 types
variance of diesel fuel failed to emphasize people to utilize fuels which comply with Euro 2 /II
Standard. Because, people choice is more influenced by the fuel price rather than fuel quality refer
to the vehicle technology requirement. Finally, Pertamax and Pertamax Plus, gasolines which is
comply with Euro 2/II standard just have 2.5% of market share with remaining market share of
97.5% depended on using Premium 88, a regular gasoline that is not comply with Euro 2/II
Standard as above mentioned; and marketed with fuel pump price at IDR 4500/L. For 2 variances
diesel fuels are Solar 48 and Pertamina-Diesel Environmental Extra (Perta-DEX). Solar 48 is a
diesel fuel with Cetane Number 48, Sulfur content 3500 ppm, and other parameters that is not
comply to Euro I/1 Vehicle Standard, and marketed with pump price at IDR 4200/L. While for
fuels which comply with Euro 2/II Standard of Pertamax, Pertamax Plus and Perta-DEX, each
of them is marketed at fuels pump price as follow IDR 5600/L, IDR 5850/L and IDR 5750/L19.
Ambiguous policies on cleaner fuels tend to fail on implementation, and failed to encourage people
to shift from dirty fuel to cleaner one.
19
https://www.antaranews.com/berita/57552/harga-bbm-industri-dan-pertamax-naik
32
Graph 13. Cetane number of Regular Diesel Fuel (Solar 48)
is 49 with minimum 46 and max 50.
Graph 14. Sulfur content Regular Diesel Fuel (Solar 48) is 1378 ppm (2019), which one for Sulfur
content is worsening rather than 2017 (1282 ppm). In this 7 years Sulfur content in the Diesel Fuel
is decrease compare to 2007 – 2012 (average 1912 ppm), and 2007 – 2012 (average 2215).
59. Even though established by Government, fuel variance, and fuel pricing policy were also
influenced by oil trader which has interest to dominate market share by imported dirty fuel20. The
fuel price is established refer to the boarder price methods or with reference international price of
MOPS (Mid Oil Platts Singapore). Actually, it is against the constitution and also against the
Constitution’s Court Sentence No 002/PUU-I/2003 with the date on 21 December 2004 toward
To Revoke the Provision on Market/Boarder Pricing Policy Establishment refer to the Article 28
verse 3 of the Act No 22/2001 toward Oil and Gas21. Another reason, it is over-pricing for
imported dirty fuel, and then people are paying higher price rather than fuel with its quality that
they get. With refer to the government pricing policy that government mandates to Pertamina to
provide fuels for the whole country with fuel price that is established refer to the boarder market
price. It is meant that regular fuel price is established refer to the international price of MOPS for
fuel pricing reference. The problem is Pertamina distributes fuels with lower quality rather than
quality of fuels which are used as reference price. The price of regular gasoline of Premium 88 is
established refer to the MOPS price of Gasoline 92 with others parameters which are comply with
Euro 2/II standard. So, it is over-pricing for the fuel with lower quality rather which should have
obtained from22.
20
Safrudin, et al, Menggugat Harga BBM Kotor Bersubsidi, To Sue the Over-pricing Dirty Subsidized Fuel,
KPBB/Tawan Gugat, 20 May 2013
21
Lukmanul Hakim, et al, Warga Negara Menggugat Harga BBM Bersubsidi, Tim Advokasi Warga Negara Mengugat,
2013.
22
Safrudin, et al, Behind Fuel Pricing Policy, KPBB, 2016.
33
60. The proposal to add the new fuel variance in the market was presented on May 2015, almost 1
(one) year after President Joko Widodo was inaugurated for his first term. Then the new variance
with the brand Pertalite 90 was launched on July 2015, while for new diesel variance is Dexlite 51
was launched on April 2016. Higher new fuel variance is Pertamax HQ and Perta-DEX HQ were
launched on August 2017.
61. Pertalite 90 has similar parameters with Premium 88 (RON, sulfur content, benzene content,
aromatic content, olefin content, etc); but it has detergent additive. In the past Premium 88 also
has detergent additive, but it was phased out in April 2001 when President Gus Dur was not allow
Pertamina to increase fuel pricing. As compensation to reach its economic price and to avoid loss
margin, then Pertamina phased-out the detergent additive in Premium 88. Even though Premium
88 has brand with RON 88, but refer to the annual fuel quality monitoring (see graph 11) shows
that actually Premium 88 has fluctuated RON with minimum 87.2 and maximum 90.8, depend on
its refineries and its handling process in storage, pipeline, transporter and filling station.
62. Meanwhile, DEX-lite 51 is a diesel fuel with Cetane Number 51 and Sulfur Content more than
1200 ppm. Even though it meets Euro 2/II Standard for its Cetane Number, but it has too high
Sulfur content and other parameter such as aromatic, benzene, etc. that are not comply with
requirement of Euro 2/II standard.
63. After high and intensive pressure from civil society in January 2017 according to the delay time
on issuing of Minister of Environment and Forestry Decree, then Minister issued the decree No
P.20/2017 toward Emission Standard for Motor Vehicle in Indonesia. The decree regulates that
gasoline vehicle must comply with Euro 4/IV standard by 7 October 2018, while diesel engine
vehicle must comply with Euro 4/IV standard by 7 April 2021. Actually, the draft of Minister
Decree has been approved by key stakeholder and related sector of government in December
2013, and Euro 4/IV standard would be implemented starting 2016. But it’s look like any strong
effort to make damage the banded-commitment among the parties, so finally the decree has never
signed yet until any strong pressure from civil society.
64. As a follow up to the Minister Decree No P.20/2017, Pertamina started to produce Pertamax HQ
and Perta-DEX HQ. HQ stands for low sulfur and high quality, so Pertamax HQ an Perta-DEX
HQ would be allocated for Euro 4/IV standard of motor vehicle which has been produced since
October 2018 (gasoline engine vehicle), and April 2021 (diesel engine vehicle). Pertamax HQ has
important specification for Sulfur content max 50 ppm, Octane Number 98, and other parameters
which are complying with Euro 4/IV vehicle technology requirement. Then Pertamax HQ is
marketed with brand Pertamax Turbo. While, Perta-DEX HQ was started to be produced and
marketed on 1 August 2017, and has Cetane Number 53, 50 ppm of Sulfur content; with other
parameters which able to fulfil the engine requirement of Euro 4/IV. Today, total domestic
production is 1,113,000 KL p.a. (since 2017), and would be increased to be double its current
capacity to 2,385,000 KL p.a. by the end of 2020. The fact, total domestic diesel fuel production
which complies with Euro 4/IV standard is not enough volume to fulfill total demand for Euro
4/IV standard of Diesel Vehicle in 2019, but it is enough to supply it in 2018. Total demand on
diesel fuel which complies with Euro 4/IV standard is 410,093.40 KL (2018) and 1,763,258.53
KL (2019), so it is smart decision to doubling total domestic production in this year23.
Unfortunately, government did not decide to implement Euro 4/IV standard of diesel vehicle in
23
Directorate for Processing, Pertamina, 2020
34
same schedule with gasoline vehicle, even though the availability of diesel fuel which complies to
Euro 4/IV standard is ready to trigger the market penetration, both for lower emission motor
vehicle, and cleaner fuel.
Graph 15. Total demand fuels for the year 2018 and 2019
65. Similar with experience on 2007 on adopting Euro 2/II, today Indonesia also has difficulties when
adopting Euro 4/IV standard. Too many variances of fuels (4 types gasoline and 4 types of diesel
fuels), probably it is increasing the burden and cost on production, handling and distribution its
fuels. More variancealso added complicated things in relation production, handling, and
distribution process with more costly. In the implementation of Euro 4/IV standard since
October 2018, unfortunately it also still makes people misfuelling where people did not fill the
tank of their motor vehicle which is bought at the period of October 2018 and or after that with
the compliance fuel: Pertamax Turbo and Perta-DEX HQ. The fact, implementation of Euro
4/IV standard do not increasing total fuel demand that comply with vehicle technology
requirement, more over total selling of Pertamax Turbo tend to decrease. It means that people
do not willing to use it base on price consideration. They broke the engine technology requirement
on appropriate fuel quality for Euro 4/IV standard, and chose noncompliance one to get cheaper
price of fuel. Of course it makes damage engine and its component such fuel pump, nozzle
injector, spark plug, piston, piston ring, connecting rod, catalytic converter, etc,
Graph 16. Trend of Monthly Total Selling Pertamax Turbo in Jakarta Province
35
Graph 17. Trend of Monthly Total Selling Pertamax Turbo in Nation-wide
66. With reference to the above graph, we know that total selling of Pertamax Turbo, gasoline with
specification which comply to the Euro 4/IV; is declined whatever that was happened in Jakarta
Province as well in nation-wide. The decline is measured from average 25,000 KL per month to
20,000 KL per month for nation-wide, and from average 5,000 KL per month to be 4,000 KL per
month for Jakarta Province. So, it looks like an anomaly, the trend of total selling of Pertamax
Turbo is decline, precisely at the schedule of implementation Euro 4/IV standard. Even though
total domestic production Pertamax Turbo is 1,335,600 KL (2019), and this number is enough to
supply the needs of Euro 4/IV vehicle standard which start to be adopted in Indonesia since
October 2018. See the diagram pie, that total demand of Pertamax Turbo in 2018 is 110, 132.02
KL (2018), and 521,000.78 KL (2019). Thus, it is good opportunity to start implementing Euro
4/IV standard timely. Again, the problem is fuels with low quality with lower price still marketed
in Indonesia, so people with lack of knowledge condition on the needs of cleaner and
environmental fuel quality are still have preference on lower price. They are not aware with its
effect to their vehicle engine.
3.7.1.1.2. Unfairness Fuel Pricing Policy

Table 6. Comparison Fuel Pricing in Various Countries as at 30 April 2020
Unfairness Fuel Price in Indonesia
IDR
INDONESIA GLOBAL
Particular Pertamina Shell Total Malaysia Australia US
Pump Station COGS Pump Station COGS Pump Station COGS Pump Station COGS Pump Station COGS Pump Station COGS
Gasoline
RON 88/S200 ppm 6,450.00 4,837.50
RON 90/S200 ppm 7,650.00 5,737.50 9,075.00 n/a
RON 92/S100 ppm 9,000.00 6,750.00 9,075.00 n/a
RON 92/S50 ppm 9,125.00 n/a 9,125.00 n/a
RON 95/S50 ppm 9,650.00 n/a 9,650.00 n/a 4,433.75 2,293.14
RON 97/S50 ppm 5,497.85 2,386.36
RON 98/S50 ppm 9,850.00 7,387.50
RON 95/S10 ppm 8,376.48 1,529.14 7,168.27 2,580.58
Diesel Fuel
CN 48/2000 ppm 5,100.00 4,825.00
CN 51/1200 ppm 9,500.00 7,125.00
CN 53/300 ppm 10,200.00 7,650.00
CN 53/500 ppm 10,150.00 n/a
CN 53/50 ppm 11,000.00 8,250.00 9,850.00 n/a 4,965.80 4,965.80
CN 53/10 ppm 9,444.96 2,277.07 9,869.53 3,947.81
Source: MOPS, AIP; processed by KPBB 2020.
36
Graph 18. Unfairness: Cost of Goods Sold of fuels versus its compliance to Euro Standard
67. Any misleading information toward the most cheapest fuel price in world, when the certain
institution published fuel price comparison in various countries in the world without complete it
with fuel specification. Of course it is tending to create logical fallacy, because to compare fuel
price among many countries, it could be not apple to apple comparison, but we need to look at to
the fuel specification and then we could convert it with related index until we could get the equality
to make comparison. Indonesia is published at above mentioned publication as the country with
relatively cheapest fuel price and put it in the line with the country which has higher fuel
specification. It is logic that the country with higher fuel specification/quality also has higher fuel
price. It is anomaly when the country with low fuel quality could be compared its fuel price with
the country which has higher fuel quality. It is meant that Indonesia which has lowers fuel quality,
it is logic also that Indonesia has lower fuel price.
68. Beside it is needed to juxtapose fuel quality when we compare the fuel price, we also must use
COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) to make relevant comparison. So, do not use retail fuel price at
pump station, because it would be bias refer to the difference fiscal policy in the countries.
69. With refer to the market data as at 30 April 2020, even though Indonesia has lower fuel quality
rather than Malaysia, Australia and US, unfortunately Indonesia has highest COGS, see yellow
column in above table). Gasoline RON 88 S 200 ppm for instance has COGS IDR 4,837.50/L,
and gasoline RON 90 S 200 ppm has COGS IDR 5,737.50/L, and RON 92 S100 ppm has COGS
IDR 6,750.00/L, moreover for RON 98 S 50 ppm which has COGS IDR 7,387.50/L. All of
these fuels more expensive rather than COGS of fuel that are marketed in Malaysia, Australia and
US. Gasoline which has similar quality with highest gasoline spec in Indonesia (Pertamax Turbo,
RON 98 S50 ppm) has COGS IDR 2.386.36/L only. In Australia, COGS of gasoline with RON
95 S 10 ppm or gasoline which is complied to motor vehicle with Euro 6/VI Standard is IDR
1529.14 only. Also, US which has fuel quality similar with Australia; the COGS is IDR 2,580.58/L.
Similar situation also happened for diesel fuel, where all of type diesel fuels in Indonesia have
higher COGS rather than that are marketed in Malaysia, Australia and US.
70. Look at to above table, it shows to us that actually any intransparency on fuel pricing policy, where
people paid too much for per liter of fuel with lower quality rather than which it should be
obtained. Intransparency could mean that any inefficiency on production process (exploration,
extractive, refinery, and distribution/retail), or malpractice with corruption. For malpractice
which tends to corrupt, it could be a conspiracy among the parties which is involving oil trader as
37
mastermind24. Logically, does not happen when there is no cooperation among the parties which
involving inside person(s). It is timely and importance to reformulate fuel pricing policy in one
step to integrate reformulates fuel specification according to the vehicle technology requirement.
71. Oil companies also tend to utilize the third countries as dumping ground for the dirty fuels25 which
are banned by government’s regulation in the first countries in relation to tightening emission
standard. We are concerned to the situation where the first countries which have attention to
protect their people from pollutants, but they have no solidarity to protect also the people in the
third countries such Indonesia, and neglected their oil companies exported their dirty fuel to the
third countries. Protection for the people against air pollution must be applied in a universal way,
so it is not protect the people in certain country at the expense the people in other countries.
72. To emphasize public attention against the threat of fuel quality and fairness fuel prices, it is needed
to build public participatory to criticize fuel quality and fuel pricing consistently, and sustainable;
so able to push the policy reformulation and create fairness prices which reflected its fuel quality
complies with its technology requirement.
3.7.1.1.3. Too Many Fuel Types
73. It is known that Indonesia has 8 (eight) types of fuels for motor vehicle, those are Premium88,
Pertlite90, Pertamax, and Pertamax Turbo for gasoline; and Solar48, Dexlite51, Perta-DEX, and
Perta-DEX HQ for diesel fuels. Beside it has made difficulties and complicated technical matter
in relation to provide raw material of refinery, production process, distribution, retail,
administration control in relation with fiscal policy and technical services; unfortunately, half of
those types of fuels are not complied to the engine requirement since 2007. Those fuels which
are not complying with engine requirement even though for Euro 2/II standard are Premium88,
Pertalite90, Solar48, and Dexlite51. So, government needs to remove those dirty fuels from the
market to avoid logical fallacy to make people confused and misfuelling, beside it also tends to
manipulate and against the law.
3.7.1.1.4. Business Trick of Principal Vehicle Manufacturers
74. The portfolio on centralizing of advance technology versus old technology of motor vehicle have
been taken and established by principals of motor vehicle manufacturer. It is addressed to get
opportunity cost, while they are still able to gain revenue and profitability from old technology
that should be stopped to be produced and marketed after endless the privilege license. Motor
vehicle manufacturers utilize the opportunity depend on the level of per capita income (PCI) in
relation with people purchasing power in certain country to buy motor vehicle. The advance
technology of motor vehicle commonly was installed in the country which has high purchasing
power, and or has ambitious policy with clear roadmap on vehicle technology development,
parallel to produce motor vehicle for export oriented. Meanwhile for old technology would be
installed in the country with lower purchasing power people with unclear roadmap on vehicle
technology development, so old technology with lower production cost is a solution for low-
income people to get motor vehicle. Their market intelligent is so smart to research toward this
purchasing power of motor vehicle customers.
24
https://tirto.id/petral-memang-bubar-tapi-praktik-mafia-migas-masih-gentayangan-dhq9
25
Harjono, M, 2019, Paying A High Price for Indonesia’s Dirty Fuel Imports, San Francisco, ICCT.
38
75. In the region of South East Asia, it could be checked that the principal companies of motor vehicle
manufacturer have installed their factory in Thailand with focus on advance technology (Euro
4/IV standard), while they also have installed in Indonesia with focus on old technology (Euro
2/II standard), so beside they would like to grab new market on advance technology that are
comply to national standard as well as to keep on utilizing old technology.
76. Motor vehicle manufacturers have been reluctant to face the new regulation on vehicular emission
standard No P.20/2017 that was issued by Minister of Environment and Forestry as at 10 March
2017, and applied effectively on October 2018 for gasoline engine vehicle, and would be applied
on April 2021 for diesel engine vehicle. Understood that motor vehicle manufacturers have
reluctant on new emission standard by adopting Euro 4/IV standard, because by applying the new
standard, it is meant that motor vehicle manufacturers cannot continue to produce and sell their
old technology of motor vehicle. Their reluctance has presented for long time since all stakeholder
and key decision makers have banded commitment to adopt Euro 4/IV vehicle standard in
December 2013 with schedule to be applied by 2016.
77. Even though, the stakeholder and key decision makers have pledged a commitment, unfortunately
it was spoiled because the strong lobby from a fraction of motor vehicle manufacturers, so the
schedule of 2016 was failed to be achieved, more over its regulation was just issued on 10 March
2017 with the reschedule to be as above mentioned, after got strong pressure through social media
from CSOs that was led by KPBB.
78. In relation with the adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard in Indonesia, car manufactures still tend to
be reluctant, even though the law for this standard has been issued and implemented. This is
reflected by the lobby to continue to sell cars of Euro 2/II standard, with reason to finish the old
stocks. And then they also demolished their old factory (Euro 2/II standard) without reinvesting
on new factory to produce Euro 4/IV standard. To continue to fulfill the demand in Indonesia
they just import from Thailand, with regard to market design that are established by car
manufacturers against low emission vehicle standard in Indonesia. At this stage, Indonesia potent
to loss and sacrifice its economic from automotive sector.
3.7.1.1.5. Purchasing power
79. Other obstacle on adopting stringent emission standard is purchasing power of motor vehicle
user. Commonly, purchasing power is dependent on the GDP and GDP per capita for the people
who live in certain country. Indonesia has GDP per capita which tend to increase after got the
monetary crisis in 1997/1998, and in 2014 Indonesia is categorized as middle-income country with
GDP per capita USD 3500, and currently increased to USD 4,179.9 in 2019. Even though,
because lack on the Gini ratio with 0.381 (2019) or moderate category, where 40% population
with lowest income just able to access for 17.7% of total GPD 26; then makes weakness on
purchasing power especially in relation to buy motor vehicle with stringent emission standard.
The status of purchasing power also encourage motor vehicle manufacturers have reluctance in
relation to adopt stringent standard which its risk sensitivity on their total selling of motor vehicle.
3.7.2. The Challenges

26
https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/07/15/1748/gini-ratio-maret-2020-tercatat-sebesar-0-381.html
39
3.7.2.1. Market penetration of cleaner fuel
80. Minister Decree No P.20/2017 has been implemented gradually, which was started by gasoline
vehicle since October 2018. Even though it is still limited number with Euro 4/IV standard of
gasoline vehicle to utilize Pertamax Turbo, but it is a good trigger to (1) enforce vehicular emission
standard, (2) and increase utilization of Pertamax Turbo not only to the Euro 4/IV standard of
vehicle but also for motor vehicle with older technology; (3) raise awareness to the motor vehicle
manufacturers to have willingness on implementing regulation respectively; (4) to lead boycott
program against motor vehicle manufacturers which has not produced and marketed yet motor
vehicle follow the standard; (5) initiate mandatory emission disclosure with its legislation for new
regulation; (6) develop on line application to accommodate public participatory to declare/up load
level emission of their motor vehicle emission; (7) open discussion and share it to the social media
forum toward fact finding on motor vehicle emissions level base on its brand.
3.7.2.2. Biofuel
81. Indonesia has adopted bio-fuel (blended fossil fuel with bio-ethanol and biodiesel) since 2006, and
has an effective progress since May 2015 when the government presents with new program with
B15. The biodiesel program is established by government to substitute imported fuels which has
excess deficit on trading balance, and makes current account deficit; by utilizing domestic product
of CPO (Crudes Palm Oil) which is processed first to be FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ether) before
blended with fossil diesel fuel. The biodiesel has been improved to be B20 since May 2016 then
to be B30 since December 2019. As of November 2020, Pertamina succeeded on the trial to
produce more compatible engine requirement of biodiesel through its co-processing refinery with
total volume 10 KL per day. Pertamina also has plan to produce greener biodiesel is known as
D100 or HVO (hydro-treated vegetable oil) through standalone refinery by 2024, which is utilize
100% CPO as raw material. HVO is addressed to achieve B100 production by eliminate unknown
substance and other harmful substance at the raw material of biodiesel; with aim to produce
biodiesel which has similarities performance with fossil diesel fuel, and compatible with engine
requirement. B15 until B100 would have negative technical effect for engine such as gum deposit
and engine chamber, nozzle injector, fuel pump filter, hygroscopic27, and increasing of NOx. But
D100 is not a problem and the engine would achieve great performance.
82. The challenge of co-processing refinery of green biodiesel is that the refinery is just able to blend
11.8 – 13% CPO on its production, where remaining raw material of 87 – 88.2% is still using fossil
diesel fuel or kerosene28, so it is impossible to fulfil President’s mandate on implementing B100.
Another challenge of D100 of standalone refinery green biodiesel, and also co-processing refinery
green biodiesel are high price with IDR 17,000/L; it is too expensive compared to Solar 48 (IDR
27
Hygroscopic is the phenomenon of attracting and holding water molecules via
either absoIDRtion or adsoIDRtion from the surrounding environment, which is usually at normal or room
temperature. If water molecules become suspended among the substance's molecules, adsorbing substances can
become physically changed, e.g., changing in volume, boiling point, viscosity or some other physical characteristic
or property of the substance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hygroscopy
28
Pertamina, 9 – 10 December 2019
40
5,100/L), Perta-DEX (IDR 10,200/L), Diesel 53 in Malaysia (~IDR 5,500/L), and Diesel Super
in Australia (~IDR 8,800/L)29.
83. With regard to (1) oversupply of CPO product and its derivative product as impact of CPO
control, and limitation now, and banning utilization of CPO for transportation fuel in EU by 2030;
(2) the projection of imported crudes and fuels product (gasoline and diesel fuel) for Indonesia
would be increase until 2026 with 1.45 MBSD; (3) current production of CPO (2019 reach 42 –
46 MMT p.a. or equal to 800 – 900 MBSD) with total utilization for FAME is around 11.5%; (4)
imported gasoline reach total 18 million KL p.a. (2018); then its emphasize government to utilize
CPO domestically to be biodiesel.
84. Green fuel technology has grown with level implementation below 1% of total production of
global refineries, and then Pertamina looks at to potential acquisition its technology with HVO
from Standalone Refinery. Co-processing Refinery technology which has ability to utilize dual
feedstock conventional crudes oil, and CPO; make it possible to be applied sooner to produce
biodiesel which compatible for engine requirement, even though it just able to utilize small
percentage of CPO on blending process, as above mentioned. The success story on the FCC Co-
processing Plaju Refinery (2018, then followed up by Dumai, and Cilacap Refinery in 2019) shows
that any appropriate ability and capability of Pertamina to develop and produce biodiesel sooner
by using Co-processing method. Another initiative is preparing stand-alone refinery to produce
Green Diesel (HVO).
85. Even though, it needs more regulation which has able to emphasize affordable pricing policy,
synergy among stakeholder to convince it sustainability in down-stream as well as up-stream. Very
good thing, that by using of HVO or green diesel D100 we would be able to reduce emission,
create new role of refinery as balancer to absorb suIDRlus on CPO so a stability stock and price
could be maintenance properly, absorb suIDRlus CPO in the market to keep it availability in pump
station.
86. An appropriate Standalone refinery would be a biofuel refinery which has importance role (1) to
avoid or at least to reduce current account deficit caused by imported fuel, (2) to improve welfare
of the palm oil farming smallholders by absorbing their harvest, (3) to absorb CPO stock which
tend to be banned in EU, (4) to increase local content on fuel raw material, and (5) to improve
national resiliency with fuel security, (6) to provide greener biodiesel which compatible to engine
requirement. While, Co-processing refinery is very limited to have role rather than Standalone
refinery.
87. Today, biodiesel in Indonesia is produced by blend the FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ether) with
fossil diesel fuel with composition FAME 10% (2006), 2.5% (2007 – 2009), 15% (2015), 20%
(2017), 30% (since December 2019). FAME is produced by processing of 100%-wt CPO, 10%-
wt Methanol, and 4%-wt chemical additive, then result 96%-wt FAME, and 10%-wt Glycerol.
Meanwhile, Green Diesel Standalone is produced by processing 100%-wt CPO and 1.5 – 3.8% -
wt Hydrogen, then result 75-85%-wt Green Diesel, 5%-wt Propane, 0-25-wt Butane, <1-7%-wt.
And Biodiesel Co-processing is produced by processing 11.8%-wt CPO, 88.2%-wt Fossil Diesel
29
As at 30 April 2020
41
or Kerosene, and 2.4% -wt Hydrogen, then result 96.5%-wt Green Diesel, 2.3%-wt Off Gas, and
1.2%-wt H2O30.
88. Performance of Fossil Diesel Fuel, FAME blended biodiesel, Green Diesel Standalone, and Green
Diesel Co-processing have its differences on specification and performance on engine utilization.
Fossil Diesel fuel, as we know in Indonesia cases that has Oxygen content 0%, specific gravity .84,
pour point -5o, Cetane Number 40 – 52, Sulfur content >2000 ppm (other variances diesel fuel
have 50 ppm max, 300 ppm max, and 1200 max) , heating value 43 MJ/Kg, and has good stability.
For Biodiesel FAME it has Oxygen content of 11%, specific gravity .88, pour point -5o, Cetane
Number 50 – 65, Sulfur content <1 ppm, heating value 38 MJ/Kg, and has poor stability.
Meanwhile for Green Diesel - Standalone Refinery and Biodiesel - Co-processing Refinery almost
have similar specification and performance, except for its Sulfur content. Green Diesel Standalone
Refinery has Oxygen content 0%, specific gravity .78, pour point -10o, Cetane Number 70 – 90,
Sulfur content <2 ppm, heating value 44 MJ/Kg, and has good stability31. Even though has similar
specification and performance with Green Diesel – Standalone Refinery, Biodiesel - Co-processing
Refinery in Indonesia case will have higher Sulfur content rather than Green Diesel Standalone;
depend on its feedstock of fossil diesel fuel (commonly more than 2000 ppm).
89. Actually, Co-processing refinery with low sulfur fossil diesel fuel or kerosene feedstock would be
a great transitional period to provide diesel fuel which is compatible to engine requirement
including Euro 4/IV standard. While, we are waiting Pertamina to finalize its Standalone refinery
to produce greener diesel fuel of D100. By following the scheme, it could avoid the overlap and
contra productive among related regulation on Vehicle Emission Standard (Euro 4/IV Standard),
utilization CPO for biodiesel, and keep sustainability of fuel supply which is compatible to the
engine requirement.
90. At trial phase for the Co-processing Refinery that has being developed by Pertamina with catalytic
cracking and utilize feedstock Residue/HVGO (Heavy Vacuum Gas Oil), and CPO/RBDPO
(Refined, Bleached and Deodorized Palm Oil) potential to produce (Bio) Gasoline, LPG, and
Propane (C3) with total 14,827,942.50 KL p.a from RU III (Refinery Unit III) with total 20.5
MBSD, from RU IV with total 62 MBSD, from RU V with total 90 MBSD, and from RU VI with
total 83 MBSD. Also, with hydro-treating and utilize feedstock Untreated Diesel and
CPO/RBDPO potential to produce Biodiesel with total 3,522,724.50 KL p.a. from RU II with
total 12.7 MBSD, from RU IV with total 13 MBSD, and from RU VI with total 35 MBSD.
Another Co-processing Refinery method is hydro-treating and isomerization with feedstock
Untreated Kerosene and Kernel Oil able to produce (Bio) AVTUR (Aviation Turbine Fuel) in RU
IV with total 13 MBSD (TDHT, Thermal Distillate Hydro Treated), and 23 MBSD (AHU1st Stage
& GTO).
Table 7. Comparison of FAME, Green Diesel Standalone, and Co-processing
30
Pertamina, Biofuel Workshop that is organized by Ministry of Industry, in Jakarta, 9 – 10 December 2019.
31
Article entitle “Green Diesel Production by Hydro-refining Renewable Feedstock”, UOP and Michigan Technology
University and Article by Vincenzo Piemonte, Associate Profesor, University UCBM – Rome, Italy.
42
91. Second option is developing 5 Green Refineries – Standalone which will need total capital
expenditure of USD 4,250 million to reconstruct through optimizing existing refinery in Dumai,
Plaju, Balongan, Tuban, and Balikpapan. The reconstruction Green Standalone Refineries that
are designed to produce 4 million KL of HVO (Green Fuel, e.g. D100) p.a. with feedstock 5
million CPO p.a. will be started to produce in 2024 for Dumai and Plaju then in 2026 (for
Balongan, Tuban and Balikpapan. The Green Standalone Refinery will produce HVO with price
of IDR 17,000/L.
92. The green diesel, green gasoline, and green AVTUR are inevitability. Even though there are strong
pressure to ban CPO utilization, it could accelerate to create new innovation on optimizing
utilization of CPO, especially for domestic uses include for transportation fuel. Something that is
also important is how to develop guideline on CPO utilization design, production (up-stream,
down-stream), agriculture on providing feedstock; in the sustainable CPO principles following
Table 8. Timeline for Co-processing Refinery Trial - Pertamina
its lifecycles analysis from up-stream, down-stream until its utilization by the user. So, we could
break the acceleration on worsening ambitious, and aggressive policy toward CPO utilization
43
which has tend to degrade natural forest and conservation areas for palm oil tree farming
expansion, tend to disturb regulation on vehicle emission standard, and avoid utilization of CPO
from smallholder palm oil farming caused bias on large scale farming interest.
3.7.2.3. Electrified Vehicle
3.7.2.3.1. Jakarta, a prime-mover of urban e-mobility
2001/2002 after any emerging market of motor vehicle base on economic recovery post-monetary
crisis in 1997/1998. Now, total vehicle fleet is more than 146 million units, more than 120 million
is dominated by motor cycle. Total annual selling of car is 1.1 million units; meanwhile motor cycle
is 7 million units.
94. Imbalance of vehicle fleet composition (car, bus, truck and motor cycle), and lack on appropriate
public transportation and freight/logistic caused very inefficient fuel consumption with 68.7
million KL/year being wasted, (2019), as well as worsening local air pollution with total estimation
of emission load 39,754.51 ton/day (2019), and green-house gas (GHGs) with 255.38 M-
tonsCO2e/year (2019). Of course, it has made unhealthy air quality with its public health effects
especially in urban areas. In Jakarta for instance, people must pay IDR 51.2 T per year (2016) for
medical treatment of respiratory disease/illness related air pollution, such as acute respiratory
infection, pneumonia, bronchopneumonia, COPD, asthma, coronary artery diseases, cancer,
stroke, kidney failure, etc.
95. Ineffective traffic and transportation policy encouraged people to have their-own options in
relation to conduct mobility, freight and logistic transporter. One and others of thread are lack on
public transportation with affordable, comfortable, appropriate schedule, and safety; as well as
lack of appropriate freight and logistic transporter which are efficient, secure, and affordable.
Otherwise, total vehicle fleet tends to increase its effect on air pollution, GHGs, and depleting
energy stock when Indonesia will not have effective policy and regulation which has capability to
drive traffic and transport management, include utilizing e-mobility in urban areas such as Jakarta.
96. Indeed, the initiative to enable to reduce GHGs is needed, and air pollution as well as improving
traffic and transport management; as a part of emission reduction from all sectors. With reference
to Indonesia's NDC as a follow up of the Paris Agreement in 2015 which has been ratified in
2016, thus development of electrified urban mobility would be in line with global effort to lead
climate change control through GHGs transport mitigation; to aim target 29-41% GHGs
emissions reduction by 2030 as well as commitment to a below 1.5 degree Celsius rise in global
temperatures by 2100.
97. The initiative will contribute to create local/national collaborative efforts on low carbon
development initiative (LCDI) as part of people desires on sustainable/greener development and
implementation Paris Agreement 2015, and other international commitment pledged by
Indonesia.
98. The collaborative efforts will have effect on global carbon reduction especially from transportation
sector, and co-benefit on local air pollution reduction, and breaking energy depletion, thus will
44
have effect on reducing health effect of air pollution, reducing energy consumption, reducing
GHGs; including to reduce medical cost for treatment of respiratory disease/illness related air
pollution, reduce energy burden such fuel subsidy, and global burden on GHGs mitigation. LCDI
on transportation sector will be in line with the greener, fairer, and resilient through more
efficiency mobility which is promoted by the efforts.
99. The collaborative efforts will have effect on reducing mobility cost and expenses for urban
dwellers such as in the Greater Jakarta region, through implementing electrified urban mobility
with e-mass public transportation, complemented with non-motorized and (walking or cycling) or
appropriate e-personal mobility device for first and last mile mobility. The electric motor has more
efficiency rather than internal combustion engine motor, so it would be able to reduce operating
cost of e-mass public transport and will gain more revenue for the operator.
100. Electrified urban mobility also will trigger the opportunity for new local manufacturer on e-
mobility, after-sales services business on e-vehicle, and its infrastructure (routes, energy charging
station, etc.), and also creating new jobs for the people who will work on electric vehicle industry
and its derivatives.
101. The success on acquisition of e-mobility technology would increase national auto-industry
competitiveness at the national, and regional market with economic benefit on increasing auto-
industry’s GDP, and efficiency e-mobility. In the long run, it would be able to increase per-capita
income (PCI), and reducing poverty, enhance sustainable development, and improve people
welfare.
102. According to collaborative effort with Central Government, thus Provincial Government of
DKI Jakarta which has enough resources and potential market for e-mobility; is necessity to lead
the initiative. The first initiative is calling for prime mover on developing e-mobility industry.
Then DKI Jakarta and its satellite cities will gain the model with its related law and regulation, and
accommodative socio-engineering that will be developed as new order on electrified urban
mobility scheme.
103. The effort could be started by Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta on shifting urban
transportation mode to electrified urban mobility, whether it will be mass public transport, feeder
vehicle, and its first and last mile urban mobility as above mentioned. This effort would open
market penetration for electric vehicle. On the other hand, related policies also must be prepared
by government with incentive to promote of a prime mover on e-mobility.
104. By implementing the collaborative effort, Government of Indonesia will gain benefit on air
pollution control and GHGs mitigation from transportation sector, besides reducing burden on
energy supply, burden of health effect, and burden on GHGs mitigation. Urban people will gain
the easier accessibility of urban mobility with lower cost and expenses, so would be increase their
welfare through efficiency, more comfortable, and certain schedule for their daily mobility.
105. Electrified urban mobility, as well as previous initiatives on Car Free Day (2001), pedestrian
movement (2011), promoting clean fuel and vehicle standard (2003); is also put in the front toward
inclusiveness gender balance, and anti-discrimination (race, religion, group, etc.), including for
people with difference ability.
45
106. As a bottom-line, the electrified urban mobility is a novel or completely new which ability to
serve new model on mobility with low carbon, lower emission (air pollution), lower energy
consumption, with possibility to change urban life style from depending on private vehicle to
utilize e-mass public transport combined with sustainable urban mobility for their first and last
mile.
107. The public transport operators will be having new business model on e-mobility with lower
cost in the long run, urban people will change their life style from depended on polluted private
motor vehicle to sustainable mobility. Other cities both at national and regional level will
replicated the success story as lesson learnt to improve urban mobility; moreover, the success in
the Greater Jakarta would be a strategic megapolitan magnet for the showcase in the region of
South East Asia.
3.8. Fiscal Incentive, A Trigger for Low Emission Vehicle
3.8.1. Emission Excise
108. To get an effective implementation of low emission vehicle and also ultra-low emission
vehicle, it is a necessity to design incentive/disincentive scheme that would be able to give
award/punishment to the vehicle technology performance in relation to the emission control. The
incentive and disincentive scheme could be applied refer to the level of emission which can be
achieved by vehicle technology with refer to the standard; indeed, the standard must be established
first by government. The technology which able to achieve the standard will get the incentive in
the form of cash transferred from government that is collected from the emission excise of
vehicle technology which failed to achieve the standard. So, in this case, it could be implemented
the feebate/rebate scheme, and ear-mark policy in relation to implement emission excise.
109. Fiscal incentive for low emission vehicle and or ultra-low emission vehicle is taken and
transferred from the excise that is charged to each gr/km emission concentration of motor vehicle
which is failed to achieve the standard as above mentioned. In the scheme, the motor vehicle
which has the lowest emission concentration will gain highest incentive so it could be the motor
vehicle with (relatively) cheapest price in the market.
110. The emission excise and or incentive would be applied as monetary measurement, which is
applied for only one time in the procurement process as fiscal incentive/disincentive. The
stakeholder
46
Graph 19. Fiscal Incentive/Disincentive Scheme for Low Emission Vehicle
discussion32 also proposed to accommodate the LCA emission concentration which calculates the
exposure emission concentration in the process of delivery from manufacturer to the market. It
could be encouraging the manufacturer to produce motor vehicle closely to the market as the
effort to reduce energy consumption, and emission reduction (local air pollution as well as global
green-house gas).
111. To implement the policy, first government should establish the emission standard based on
emissions index that is emitted by certain motor vehicle; that will cover CO, NOx, HC, and PM
for gasoline motor vehicle, and or cover CO, THC, NMHC, NOx, and PM for diesel motor
vehicle. For instance, in graph government could establish emission index with .27 by 2018 when
Indonesia adopt Euro 4/IV Standard, and then could be tightened to be .19 by 2023 when
Indonesia starts to adopt Euro 6/VI standard. The motor vehicle which failed to achieve the
standard of emission index would be charged by emission excise. The emission excise would be
calculated refer to the exceeded level of each gr/km of motor vehicle emission. So, any chance
that the motor vehicle with higher emission would have more expensive price in the market
because it is disincentivized33.
112. Above mentioned proposed fiscal incentive/disincentive would be implemented as a

complement with existing policy on fuel tax that is charge by provincial government without
earmarking, so it cannot be utilized to treat the impact of burning fuel on motor vehicle.
32
Various public forum and key stakeholder forum were conducted to discuss toward low and ultra-low emission
vehicle in the range time of July 2019 – June 2020.
33
Propose Roadmap LEV and LCEV for Road-transportation sector in Indonesia, BKF, KPBB, 2019.
47
Graph 20: Fiscal Incentive/Disincentive Scheme for Low Carbon Intensity Fuel
113. Meanwhile fuel tax policy should be reformulated through adopting fuel emission intensity
(emission factor) as a basic calculation on fuel excise. The first step, government should do
research and analysis toward energy intensity of certain fuel then analyst its potential carbon
intensity to be established fuel emission factor. The fuel emission standard is used to calculate the
total excise that must be paid by fuel user as implementation of polluters pay principle. The total
money that is collected by government from fuel excise to be allocated as incentive for fuels user
who utilize fuel with lower emission factor.
3.8.2. Government Commitment
114. Bonding a commitment among stakeholders, then this commitment could be formulated into
policy and regulation toward vehicle emission standard; it is a necessity to keep all stakeholders,
especially government, so the regulation can be applied well and with effectiveness and efficiency
to achieve lower emission, and able to maintenance air quality. Based on the experience, oil
producers and vehicle manufacturers were often making blunder by their lobby when the new
emission standard potent to cut off their existing product which are not comply to the standard.
These were happened in 2005 with Euro2/II Standard for LDV which was postponed to be 2007,
meanwhile for HDV was postponed to be 2009. Also, when government confirmed to adopt
Euro 4/IV standard in 2016; just 2 (two) months after banded commitment with related
stakeholder in December 2013, then 2 (two) car manufacturers made dirty lobby to breaking the
commitment, and finally the schedule of implementation of Euro 4/IV standard is neglected with
uncertainty floating until civil society movement pressured it in January 2017, then 2 (two) months
later just took action on signing the decree on Euro 4/IV standard with schedule on October 2018
for gasoline vehicle, and April 2021 for diesel vehicle. The dirty lobby does still not stop there,
today car manufacturers also push government to breaking their commitment under the law to
48
postpone again for Euro 4/IV implementation for diesel vehicle to be April 2022 with reason the
pandemic Covid-19; even we all know that there is no correlation between vehicle emission
standard with Covid-19, moreover we have finished to discuss toward the schedule long time
before pandemic Covid-19, on December 2013 as above mentioned. Really, that government
commitment too fragile here, contradicts to the oil trader and auto-industry lobby which has
power too strong.
3.8.3. Roadmap on Low Emission Vehicle and Low Carbon Emission Vehicle
115. Establishing a clear timeline for implementation and developing a supporting compliance
program would help ensure that the maximum benefits are achieved. The already set Euro 4/IV
vehicle standards lay the groundwork for Indonesia to reduce vehicle emissions, but the health
benefits of Euro 4/IV are not as potent in the longer term. Euro 6/VI vehicle emission standards,
along with the qualified ultralow-sulfur fuel, reduce all types of emissions for Indonesia even in
the longer-term scenario that includes a rapidly growing vehicle market.
Graph 21. Proposed Roadmap on Low Emission Vehicle, and Low Carbon Emission Vehicle
49
116. With a timeline of 2023 for implementing Euro 6/VI standards34, the societal costs associated
with vehicular emissions can outweigh the costs of transitioning to advanced vehicle technology
and fuel upgrades by a ratio of 9.2:1 (5% discounted) between 2020 and 2050. This could be
achieved by switching to 50 ppm sulfur imports as soon as possible and then later tightening to
10 ppm while bringing refineries up to speed. But again, the emissions reductions and their
associated improvements in public health and climate can only be achieved with qualified fuel
available for all grades of fuel types.
117. Due to the large share of motorcycles in the fleet and their growing contribution to air
pollution, there would also be significant benefit from prioritizing emission reductions from
motorcycles. Early adoption of Euro 5 emission standards in 2023 does not provide the same level
of emissions reduction as it does with four-wheeler vehicles, and electrification is an attractive
complementary strategy, given that motorcycles are smaller and have lower battery capacity
requirements. This analysis did not analyze the possible benefits from electrification, but future
analyses could examine the potential impacts and the costs and benefits of electrification in
combination with fleet renewal.
118. Indonesia has been one of the most polluted countries in terms of outdoor air pollution in the
world since 1990, it has brought impact to the social life of Indonesian people, such as premature
death where it is predicted that 52,000 losses in 2017, and average of 1.5 years decrease of life
expectancy due to air pollution. PM2.5 as considered as carcinogenic pollutants has passed beyond
the WHO standard by 10 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3). It has been found that vehicle
emissions in Indonesia are among the pioneer of outdoor air pollution, not only PM2.5 but also
ozone and nitrogen dioxide, and WHO found that globally, the top three contributors were on-
road diesel vehicle, on-road non-diesel vehicles and ships. Indonesia is considered lagging behind
to implement advanced emission standard, GOI implemented Euro 2/II for LDV by 2005/2007,
HDV by 2009 and 2010, respectively, Euro 3/III for motorcycle in 2013, and Euro 4/IV for LDV
and HDV by 2018, and for diesel vehicle by beginning 2021.
119. However, the needs of fuel to meet the Euro 4/IV standard vehicle still don’t exist yet. There
are various grades from 300 ppm even until 2,500 ppm S level. With the rapid growing of vehicles’
market in Indonesia, so that GOI’s commitment to implement advanced emission technology is
definitely needed. Cost and benefit analysis of applying Euro 4/IV standard will bring essential
benefit to protect public health.
120. Overview of vehicle market in Indonesia, it shows exponential growth of motorcycle over
years since 2000 to 2017. Indonesian emission standard history has been long time recorded; it
was in 1996 where the Blue-Sky program was launched to reduce lead on the gasoline, but GOI’s
work on environmental performance is not that easy, due to the fuel specs of diesel is considered
dangerous for public health.
3.8.3.1. Low Emission Vehicle
121. Research and development on supply chain domestic manufacturing.
34
Chao, et al, Soot-free road transport in Indonesia: A cost-benefit analysis and implications for fuel policy,
ICCT,2020.
50
122. CNG/LGV manufacturing. Even though it is unbinding yet for the roadmap on ultra-low
emission vehicle and also low carbon emission vehicle, in the fact that it has been formulated
related agenda to mitigate emission, whatever for local air pollution emission as well as global
green-house gas from transportation sector. Many stakeholder discussions toward the issue were
organized, but the decision making is very slowly, especially formal decision of government to
bind multi-stakeholder commitment. So, finally, each sector has taken action to achieve lower
emission vehicle, such as research on LEV and LCEV, research and development on flexi car with
biodiesel, bioethanol fuel, CNG and LGV, research on electrified vehicle include fuel cell
generation, down-sizing program with low-cost green car (LCGC), research on main part of
electrified vehicle (EV) on battery, electric motor and PCU (Powertrain Control Unit or inverter).
123. Beside the research and study agendas, the applied technology manufacturer on flexi engine
also has been started since 2017, especially to response B15; diesel fuel which blended with 15%
FAME from CPO Biodiesel since 2015, then B20 in 2017 and B30 since December 2019. While,
bio-ethanol flexi engine has been manufactured for export oriented since 2007, in regard there is
not enough supply for bio-ethanol domestically to be blended in gasohol.
124. Inevitability of Euro 6/VI. Air pollution from mobile sources has been recognized as one of
the main contributors to health problems, particularly respiratory diseases and environmental
issues such as acid rain. Both gasolines powered vehicle and diesel are contributing to the issue of
air pollution and therefore back in 1992 the first Euro standard (Euro I) was enacted in order to
control the pollutants from combustion engine released into the open air. Euro standards became
tighter since it was firstly introduced, and the experiences from the European Union showed that
each time they introduce more stringent emission control, the automotive industries responded
by putting large amount of investments in new technology to make their vehicles run cleaner. As
of 1 September 2015, the EU required all newly registered vehicles to comply with Euro VI
standards.
125. There are many benefits from the implementation of Euro VI standards apart from pollutants
(NOx, CO, Particulates), such as increased efficiency as manufactures have to make sure their
engines run as efficient as possible. Particularly for diesel engines, this means a lot, as several
European countries started to discourage the use of old diesel engine. For example, their Mayor
of London, Sadiq Khan would like to charge older diesel engine an extra 10 Pound to drive in the
capital on top of the usual congestion zone. Many countries believed that by implementing Euro
VI standards now, they will certainly avoid extra cost in the future related to health and
environmental impacts.
3.8.3.2. Low Carbon Emission Vehicle
126. Actually, in relation with EV manufacturing, many stakeholders intended to propose their idea
and effort to conduct research on phase 2 LCEV (Low Carbon Emission Vehicle), encourage
possibility domestic manufacturing of PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, BEV (Battery
Electric Vehicle), FC (Fuel Cell), and idea to produce the main part of EV manufacturing (PCU,
power-train control unit).
127. The proto-type of electrified vehicle also has been developed by several companies and
institutions such as e-bus, e-motor cycle, e-passenger car; but the companies with entrepreneurs
51
still are waiting and seeing the situation before they have willingness to deliver it to the mass
production, and release to the market. The most importance is integrated regulation has not in
place yet, especially fiscal incentive/disincentive which has ability to trigger EV penetration in the
market, beside still unclear yet for its VIN (Vehicle Identification Number) handling. Everything
still is depended on the government willingness which has not shifted yet from the ICE
technology.
128. Low Carbon Emission Vehicle, especially with EV option; it meets significant threat from
other stakeholders who would like to keep the ICE technology in market, then they are making
collaboration with the parties who have interest on palm oil biodiesel. Even though at the
beginning steps to introducing biofuel (biodiesel and bioethanol) in 2001 - 2006, the parties had
reluctances against utilizing biofuels, and made strong lobby to stop utilizing biofuel, but today
they choose the biofuel option to response government urge on low carbon emission vehicle.
Then they very excited to preparing palm oil biodiesel in one track with government scheme on
utilizing biodiesel with its program on B15 (2015), B20 (2017), B30 (2019/2020) and is continuing
to produce more than B30 with special treatment of stand-alone refinery, and or co-processing
refinery. No choice for the ICE technology here in Indonesia, they are compromising situation
against the pressure from BEV trend, even though they also predicted that it is very hard, but at
least they could extend the ICE technology to dominate the domestic market until 2035. It is clear,
that they are also making lobby in relation to hold the implementation of e-Bus for BRT-Trans
Jakarta, and they are being success to make failure the e-Bus adoption which has been scheduled
before with 600 units e-Bus deployment in 2019, 1000 units in 2020 and soon until 2025 with 4000
units e-Bus, parallel to complete ~14,000 units electrified commercial vehicle in Jakarta in 2030
with its various types (articulated e-bus, large e-Bus, maxy e-Bus, medium e-Bus, micro e-Bus for
para-transit).
129. The ICE interest lobby gets the success when government releases Government Regulation
No 73/2019 toward Luxury Tax Exemption for LCEV. It looks like it favors LCEV development,
but actually bias to the ICE technology interest; and it is not significant to give incentive for really
LCEV like as BEV. And finally, after implemented all of fiscal incentive scheme, BEV still the
most expensive in the market with more than double price rather than ICE vehicle with similar
power train. Under this study, and also previous study; we suggested to reformulate fiscal
incentive with emission excise and implemented with feebate and rebate scheme (see Sub Chapter
3.3.1.) rather than wasted fiscal incentive with discounted luxury tax for LCEV as established at
Government Regulation No 73/2019 as above mentioned. In the year 2016 – 2017, government
was following our suggestion on emission excise and collaboration with us was conducting study
on Carbon Excise as new scheme that will be regulated as new scheme to accelerate LCEV.
Unfortunately, when the report was exposed in August 2017, it got threat from auto-industry and
then Ministry of Industry emphasized to get back to the option of luxury tax exemption as what
has been regulated on Government Regulation No 41/2013; with the extension to broader areas
include the LCEV. Just information, even though Government Regulation No 41/2013 is set up
to give fiscal incentive for both of LCGC and LCEV, but it just works for LCGC (Low-Cost
Green Car, small car with 1200 cc max), because Minister of Industry just followed up by issuing
Minister Decree No. 33/M-IND/PER/7/2013 which is meant to be a legal basis for the LCGC
fiscal incentive; so the LCEV is neglected.
52
Chapter 4
Vehicle Emission, Control Strategy, and Its Effect on Economic Benefit
4.2. Estimation of motor vehicles emissions
130. Various types of data, namely population, types or categories: passenger vehicles, light trucks
and buses (2.2 – 4.5 tons), medium trucks and buses (4.5 – 15 tons), heavy trucks and buses (15 –
22 tons) and motorcycles; these categories represent engine displacement (cc), are needed to
calculate total motor vehicles emissions that have local (CO, VOC, NOx, particles), regional (SOx)
and global (CO2) impacts. Other categories include engine types, such as diesel or petrol and four
strokes or two strokes35. The combustion technology, the treatment of post-combustion exhaust
gas (Euro, Tier, Hybrid), and the vehicle operation (Euro, FTP) are also considered. The last one
is the type of fuel (WWFC categorization, alternative fuel: Bioethanol, Biodiesel). These data affect
the amount of emission. In this report, we used the formula from various references, such as
Minister of Environment Decree No 12/2010 toward The Emission Calculation Methods for
Local Government, as well as others references36; to calculate the amount of total emissions load
as mentioned above. Besides, the impact of air pollutants can also be determined, particularly
health implications from particulates, impacts on climate change and a compensation in the form
of planting a number of trees in a certain amount of land surface area or paying “Certified
Emission Reduction” (CER) in a certain amount. Effects of reducing air pollution, reducing CO2
emissions and saving fuel from follow-up actions such as eco-driving, maintenance, better quality
fuel and alternative fuel mentioned above, treatment of post-combustion exhaust gas (diesel
oxidation catalyst and diesel particle filter) and new vehicles (Euro VI diesel trucks, hybrid electric
vehicles with emission control, compressed natural gas (CNG) with emission control and fuel cell
with renewable hydrogen).
4.2.1. Vehicle Inventory and Fuel Types
131. As mentioned above that inventorying the types and quantity of vehicles fleet faces a difficulty
in obtaining comprehensive data as needed by the research on estimate emission load. The
available data is in categories: passenger cars, buses, trucks, motorcycles, but the problem is any 2
(two) version of vehicle fleet data; first that is provided by Center for Statistical Bureau (bps);
secondly that is provided by SAMSAT. Of course, both of source of data show the difference
data, so it cannot provide a valid data on vehicle fleet in Indonesia. As solution, under the project,
we conducted research to validation both data that are provided by BPS and SAMSAT. The result
can be checked at the report Vehicle Fleet in Indonesia, which serves data total motor vehicle
from 1949 until 2019 with it verification and validation process.
132. With refer to the data Vehicle Fleet in Indonesia, then we could calculate through certain
formulation that is prepared to estimate total emission load from motor vehicle. Therefore, the
categories are streamlined into passenger cars, medium trucks and buses (4.5 – 15 tons) and
motorcycles (assuming four-stroke engine for all). However, in 1999 the data is available at market
35The remaining of 2-strokes engine in-used motor cycles still exist in the road, even though the production has been
discontinued.
36
Leonidas Ntziachristos, Zissis Samaras, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019; Giorgio Zamboni, On the
Defifinition of Two Wheelers Exhaust Emission Factors
53
gasoline with brand Premium, Premix, Super TT, and while for diesel fuel available with brand
Solar 48 (diesel). Then in 2000, Premix and Super TT were phase-out and changed with Pertamax
91 and Pertamax 95. By the end 2006, Perta-DEX (Pertamina Diesel Environmental Extra), new
brand of diesel fuel with cetane number 53 and Sulphur content 300 ppm (max) started to be
launched to the market. The next it was happened in August 2015, where Pertamina released new
brand of gasoline and diesel fuel. New brand gasoline is Pertalite 90, a gasoline with RON 90 and
Sulfur content 200 ppm (max); the mostly parameter similar with Premium 88, except the RON
and content of detergent additive. While, new brand diesel fuel is Dexlite 51, a diesel fuel which
is allocated for better quality. However, it failed to fulfill a requirement as cleaner fuel because
Sulphur content is 1200 ppm (max). So, both of Pertalite 90 and Dexlite 51 are wasted fuel which
do not comply to be used for in-used vehicle more over new type vehicle in Indonesia. This is
not a need for engine requirement, as well as environmental requirement; but most on politician
and oil trader need in relation to withdrawal business opportunity on oil and gas field. Another
brands of fuels were launched on January 2017 (Pertamax HQ) and on August 2017 (Perta-DEX
HQ); HQ is stand for high quality. Pertamax HQ (gasoline) and Perta-DEX HQ (diesel fuel) are
fuels which are allocated to fulfill the needs on Vehicle Euro 4 Standard; where Indonesia
scheduled to adopt it in 2016, then was rescheduled according to the strong lobby from auto-
industry, then Government established October 2018 for gasoline vehicle, and April 2021 for
diesel vehicle. Just for information, Indonesia is a country with car and motor cycle manufacturers,
so the policy reform on vehicle standard especially on emission standard is not simple matter. It
is a complicated situation which has strong business interest from auto-industry; moreover vehicle
manufacturers in Indonesia are just subsidiary from principal countries such as Japan, Korea,
China, India, German, US, UK, Sweden, French; with vehicle manufacturers from Japan take
leading market here with market share around 92% and they have policy to dump their technology
in Indonesia (Euro 2/II Standard), even though they also have other manufactures in Thailand to
supply advance technology (Euro 4/IV Standard). By adopting advance technology of Euro 4/IV
Standard, it means that it could close their market for old vehicle technology in Indonesia. It
makes sense why there is always strong lobby to damage the agenda, and the roadmap on
implementing cleaner vehicle technology.
133. We utilize above mentioned data both of vehicle fleet in Indonesia and existing 8 variances of
fuels in Indonesia; even though it is dominated by dirty fuel (Premium 88, Pertalite 90, Solar 48
and DEX-lite) which have market share at number around 97% rather than clean fuels which are
comply to Euro 2/II (Pertamax and Perta-DEX), and Euro 4/IV Standard (Pertamax Turbo and
Perta-DEX HQ).
4.3.2. Methods
134. To estimate the total emission load of total vehicle fleet in Indonesia, we utilize the below
formula, then combine it with the input fuels specification, total vehicle fleet refer to its variances,
vehicle emission standard, and VKT (Vehicle Kilometer Travel). Fuel specification is taken from
the Directorate General for Oil and Gas of Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Total
vehicle fleet is taken from Vehicle Fleet in Indonesia, a verification report –part of this report--
with the input from BPS (Center of Statistical Bureau), and SAMSAT Office (Sistem Administrasi
Manunggal Satu Atap or one roof integrated administration system for motor vehicle
administration.
54
Ei,j = k (<Mj,k>  EFi,j,k) or
Ei,j = k (N j,k  Mj,k  EFi,j,k)

where,
<Mj,k> = total annual distance driven by all vehicles of category j and
technology k [veh-km],
EFi,j,k = technology-specific emission factor of pollutant i for vehicle
category j and technology k [g/veh-km],
Mj,k = average annual distance driven per vehicle of category j and
technology k [km/veh],
Nj,k = number of vehicles in nation’s fleet of category j and technology
k.
135. Emission standard is taken from related regulation: Minister of Environment Decree No
141/2003 toward Emission Standard for New Type and Current Production, Minister
Environment Decree No 12/2013 toward Emission Standard for New Type L Category of Motor
Vehicle, Minister of Environment and Forestry Decree No P20/2017 toward Emission Standard
for M and N Category Motor Vehicle; beside we also used the reference from ECE to estimate
Euro 6/VI Standard which has not regulated yet in Indonesia.
Table 8. Estimation of Vehicular Emission Load in Indonesia, 2019

Parameter
Particular
Total CO HC NOx SOx PM10 PM2.5
Motor Cycle 9,982,769.16 8,332,531.03 1,418,411.69 196,556.70 14.43014 10,576.59 24,678.72
3-Wheelers 1,147.09 957.47 162.99 22.59 0.00166 1.22 2.84
Gasoline Car 1,758,520.67 1,518,065.12 154,647.14 85,322.55 0.62 145.57 339.67
Diesel Car 282,233.10 99,294.11 7,853.15 143,111.95 5.26 9,590.59 22,378.04
Bus 1,034,155.15 369,328.26 43,368.26 582,740.82 22.79 11,608.50 27,086.51
Truck 1,451,570.76 613,485.05 59,909.69 719,256.01 37.76 17,664.67 41,217.57
Grand Total 14,510,395.94 10,933,661.04 1,684,352.93 1,727,010.61 80.87 49,587.15 115,703.34
Source: Tier 2 - author calculation.
VKT data is taken from the survey on behavior and typical driver in 17 cities which representing
the drivers/riders in the whole country.
Meanwhile to estimate SO2, we utilize bellow formula:
ESO2m = 2.kSm.FCm
where:
ESO2,m = emissions of SO2 per fuel m [g],
kS,m = weight related sulphur content in fuel of type m [g/g fuel],
FCm = fuel consumption of fuel m [g].
55
4.3.3. Analysis
136. Source of vehicular emission as shown in the previous chapter especially on the graph 5 and
5a could be explained that total and major various emissions that are emitted by motor vehicle
with total 14,510,395.94 ton/year (2019) that was emitted by motor cycle, 3-wheelers, gasoline
passenger car, diesel passenger car, bus, and truck which were driven in the road of whole- nation.
The major parameters which are estimated are CO, HC, NOx, SOx, PM10, and PM2.5 with total
each of them 10,933,661.04; 1,684,352.93; 1,727,010.61; 80.87; 49,587.15; and 115,703.34. CO is
the highest pollutant then followed by NOx, HC, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2.
137. CO. Emission load of CO can be explained that the emission has being increased refer to its
increasing of vehicle fleet that are divided in 4 categories: motor cycle, passenger car, bus and
truck. Refer to the baseline year of 1999, we found that CO as toxic pollutants which has positive
correlation with the total number of motor vehicle. Compare to the CO in 2000, a baseline year
that is used officially refer to the Minister Environment Decree No 12/2010; the
60.000.000,00
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for CO Parameter
49.989.142
50.000.000,00
CO Emission Load (Ton/Year)
40.000.000,00
30.000.000,00 Emission Load of CO

Euro 6
Emission Load of CO 20.675.850,97
20.000.000,00 Euro 4
14.013.614,50
10.000.000,00
11.245.082,43
-
2013
2020
2027
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
YEAR
Graph 22. Estimation Trend Emission Load CO
CO emission load would be 2.41 times higher in 2030 even though we have implemented well
Euro 2/II Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and 3-wheelers) since 2013, and Euro 4/IV since
2018 (gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to implement Euro 6/VI by 2025; totally still
remaining emission load 11,245,082.43ton/year (2030). Meanwhile, when we do nothing to
tightening the emission standard (BAU), CO emission load would be 14.17 times higher compare
to the baseline of 2000 which totally will remaining emission load 49,989,142.00 ton/year (2030);
or CO emission load would be 5.28 times higher when we just implemented Euro 2/II Standard
which totally will remaining emission load 20,675,850.97 ton/year (2030), or CO emission load
56
would be 3.25 times higher when we just able to meet Euro 4/VI standard without upgrade it with
Euro 6/VI until 2030 which totally will remaining emission load 14,013,614.50 ton/year (2030).
138. HC. Hydrocarbon is a pollutant which tend to trigger cancer, eyes/skin irritation and other
illness/dieses. In urban areas HC is mostly emitted by motor vehicle. Refer to the baseline year
of 1999, we found that HC tend to increase dramatically especially when we just do nothing in
relation to control vehicular emission. Compare to the HC exposure in baseline year 2000; the
HC emission load would be 3.99 time in 2030 even though we have implemented well Euro 2/II
Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and 3-wheelers) since 2013, and Euro 4/IV since 2018
(gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to implement Euro 6/VI by 2025; totally still remaining
emission load 2,308,279.17 ton/year (2030). Meanwhile, when we do nothing to tightening the
emission standard (BAU), HC emission load would be 15.01 times higher compare to the baseline
of 2000 which totally will remaining emission load 7,413,479 ton/year (2030); or HC emission
load would be 5.64 times higher when we just implemented Euro 2/II Standard which totally will
remaining emission load 3,075,207.37 ton/year (2030), or HC emission load would be 4.45 times
higher when we just able to meet Euro 4/VI standard without upgrade it with Euro 6/VI until
2030 which totally will remaining emission load 2,523854.4 ton/year (2030).
8000000
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for HC Parameter 7.413.479
7000000
6000000
HC Emission Load (Ton/Year
5000000
Emission Load of HC Euro 6

4000000 Emission Load of HC Euro 4
Emission Load of HC Euro 2
Emission Load of HC BAU 3.075.207,37
3000000
2.523.854,40
2000000 2.308.279,17
1000000
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
YEAR
Graph 23. Estimation Trend Emission Load HC
57
4500000
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for NOx Parameter 4.086.060
4000000
3500000
NOx Emission Load (Ton/Year
3.082.738,53
3000000
Emission Load of NOx Euro 6
2500000 Emission Load of NOx Euro 4 2.473.810,25
Emission Load of NOx Euro 2 2.157.965,26
Emission Load of NOx BAU
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
YEAR
Graph 24. Estimation Trend Emission Load NOx
1.000,00
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for SO2 Parameter 902
900,00
800,00
SO2 Emission Load (Ton/Year)
700,00
600,00
500,00
400,00
Emission Load of SOx
300,00 Euro 6
200,00 158,80
100,00
45,20
5,86
-
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
YEAR
Graph 25. Estimation Trend Emission Load SO2
58
139. NOx. Nitrogen Dioxide is a pollutant which tends to trigger pneumonia, and other lung or
respiratory illness/dieses. In urban areas NOx is mostly emitted by motor vehicle. Refer to the
baseline year of 1999, we found that NOx also tends to increase dramatically especially when we
just do nothing in relation to control vehicular emission. Compare to the NOx exposure in
baseline year 2000; the NOx emission load would be 2.79 times higher in 2030 even though we
have implemented well Euro 2/II Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and 3-wheelers) since 2013,
and Euro 4/IV since 2018 (gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to implement Euro 6/VI by
2025; totally still remaining emission load 2,157,965.26 ton/year (2030). Meanwhile, when we do
nothing to tightening the emission standard (BAU), NOx emission load would be 6.18 times
higher compared to the baseline of 2000 which totally will remaining emission load 4,086,060.00
ton/year (2030); or NOx emission load would be 4.41 times higher when we just implemented
Euro 2/II Standard which totally will remaining emission load 3,082,738.53 ton/year (2030), or
NOx emission load would be 3.34 times when we just able to meet Euro 4/VI standard without
upgrade it with Euro 6/VI until 2030 which totally will remaining emission load 2,473,810.25
ton/year (2030).
140. SOx. Sulphur Dioxide is a pollutant which tends to trigger many lungs and respiratory
illness/dieses such as ARI (Acute Respiratory Infection), pneumonia, bronchitis, cancer, etc. In
urban areas, SOx can be emitted by motor vehicle and industrial process, and coal fired power
plant. Refer to the baseline year of 1999; SOx tends to decrease following the level Sulphur
content at the fuels refer to the successful of fuel sulfur reduction program, even though it is still
not ideal yet for the Sulphur content especially at Diesel Fuel. Compare to the SOx exposure in
baseline year 2000; the SOx emission load would be decrease to be .96 times in 2030 even though
we have implemented well Euro 2/II Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and 3-wheelers) since
2013, and Euro 4/IV since 2018 (gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to implement Euro
6/VI by 2025; totally still remaining emission load 5.86 ton/year (2030). Meanwhile, when we do
nothing to tightening the Sulphur content at the fuels (BAU), SOx emission load would be 5.71
times higher compared to the baseline of 2000 which totally will remaining emission load 902.00
ton/year (2030); or SOx emission load would be .18 times higher when we just implemented Euro
2/II Standard which totally will remaining emission load 158.80 ton/year (2030), or SOx emission
load would be decrease to be .66 times higher when we just able to meet Euro 4/VI standard
without upgrade it with Euro 6/VI until 2030 which totally will remaining emission load 45.2
ton/year (2030).
141. PM10. Particulate Matter with size max 10 micron is a pollutant which tends to trigger ARI,
eyes and skin irritation, etc. In urban areas PM10 can be emitted by motor vehicle, fossil fuel
power plant, industry, open waste burning, construction process, road dusted. Refer to the
baseline year of 1999, we found that PM10 also tend to increase dramatically especially when we
just do nothing in relation to control vehicular emission. Compared to the PM10 exposure in
baseline year 2000; the PM10 emission load would be 1.09 times higher in 2030 even though we
have implemented well Euro 2/II Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and 3-wheelers) since 2013,
and Euro 4/IV since 2018 (gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to implement Euro 6/VI by
2025; totally still remaining emission load 48,032 ton/year (2030). Meanwhile, when we do
nothing to tightening the emission standard (BAU), PM10 emission load would be 7.89 times
higher compared to the baseline of 2000 which totally will remaining emission load 204,768.00
ton/year (2030); or PM10 emission load would be 1.77 times higher when we just implemented
Euro 2/II
59
250.000,00
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for Parameter PM10
204.768
200.000,00
PM10 Emission Load (Ton/Year)
150.000,00 Emission Load of PM10 Euro 6

Emission Load of PM10 Euro 4
Emission Load of PM10 Euro 2
Emission Load of PM10 BAU
100.000,00
63.731,24
49.462,92
50.000,00
48.032,85
-
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
YEAR
Graph 26. Estimation Trend Emission Load PM10
Standard which totally will remaining emission load 63,731.24 ton/year (2030), or PM10 emission
load would be 1.15 times higher when we just able to meet Euro 4/VI standard without upgrading
it with Euro 6/VI until 2030 which totally will remain emission load 49,462.92 ton/year (2030).
142. PM2.5. Particulate Matter with size max 2.5 micron or one thirtieth of hair size diameter is a
pollutant which tends to trigger pneumonia, bronchia irritation, skin/eyes irritation, and other
lung or respiratory illness/dieses. Similar with PM10, in urban areas PM2.5 can be emitted by
motor vehicle, fossil fuel power plant, industry, open waste burning, construction process, road
dusted. Refer to the baseline year of 1999, we found that PM2.5 also tends to increase dramatically
especially when we just do nothing in relation to control vehicular emission. Compared to the
PM2.5 exposures in baseline year 2000; the PM2.5 emission load would be 1.09 times higher in
2030 even though we have implemented well Euro 2/II Standard since 2007, Euro 3 (for 2 and
3-wheelers) since 2013, and Euro 4/IV since 2018 (gasoline) and 2021 (diesel), and predicted to
implement Euro 6/VI by 2025; totally still remaining emission load 112,076.66 ton/year (2030).
Meanwhile, when we do nothing to tightening the emission standard (BAU), PM2.5 emission load
would be 7.89 times higher compared to the baseline of 2000 which totally will remaining emission
load 477,791.00 ton/year (2030); or PM2.5 emission load would be 1.77 times higher when we
just implemented Euro 2/II Standard which totally will remaining emission load 148,706.22
ton/year (2030), or PM2.5 emission load would be 1.15 times higher when we just able to meet
Euro 4/VI standard without upgrade it with Euro 6/VI until 2030 which totally will remaining
emission load 115,413.49 ton/year (2030).
60
600.000,00
Estimation of Trend Emission Load for PM2.5 Parameter

500.000,00 477.791
PM2.5 Emission Load (Ton/Year)
400.000,00
Emission Load of PM2.5 Euro 6

300.000,00 Emission Load of PM2.5 Euro 4
Emission Load of PM2.5 Euro 2
Emission Load of PM2.5 BAU
200.000,00
148.706,22
115.413,49
100.000,00 112.076,66
-
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
YEAR
Graph 27. Estimation Trend Emission Load PM2.5
4.4. Economic Benefit of Vehicular Emission Control Strategy
143. In relation with the effort to reduce air pollution and GHG emissions, we need to formulate
the control strategy. And refer to the previous vehicular emission reduction strategy, we have
updated control strategy which are cover promoting cleaner fuels/energy, adopting lower
emissions vehicle, appropriate land use, traffic and transport management, emission standard, and
law enforcement; see the table (page 20). Look at to the promoting fuels/energy and adopting
lower emission vehicle, we understand that tightening the standard both of fuels quality and
vehicular emissions; is a must to achieve better air quality. And the cleaner fuel is a precondition
to adopt lower emission vehicle. Even though, the case in Indonesia, it is difficult to do a match-
making between availability clean fuels which are comply the motor vehicle engine technology
requirement. This happened when Indonesia adopted Euro 2/II Standard in 2005, where the
fuels which are comply to the Euro 2/II standard of motor vehicle not available in the market.
Also, when Indonesia started to adopt Euro 4/IV Standard in October 2018 just high-octane
gasoline (RON 98) is available in the market, meanwhile lower octane gasoline (RON 92) which
is comply to the standard not available in the market. Finally, standard failed to be implemented
on time.
4.2.2. Better Air Quality
144. With refer to the Emission Inventory that was conducted for the Greater Jakarta in 2012
(Breathe Easy Jakarta Project, 2011-2016), then we formulated model to calculate and analysis
which was overlay to the total population of motor vehicle with mean to know its effect to the
61
trend of air pollution, especially which is emitted from road transportation from year to year. The
overlay also was applied for the previous year of 2012 which is started since 1999. The analysis is
done to address to get the trend of PM10, PM2.5, HC, CO, NOx, and SOx since 1999, and also
to forecast in the future until 2030; regarding to the absence of control strategy on vehicular
emission reduction strategy (BAU), and its effect of implementation control strategy of Euro
Standard, as has been established of Euro 2/II Standard by 2007, Euro 3 by 2013 (motor cycle),
Euro 4/IV Standard (2018) and Euro 6/VI Standard (2023). The calculation and analysis have
been done at the Sub Chapter 4.1.
Table 9. Percentage of Emission Load Reduction According to Effectiveness Control Strategy

Policy Options CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
BAU 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Euro 2/II 58.64% 58.52% 24.55% 82.39% 68.88% 68.88%
Euro 4/IV including Euro 3 for motor 71.97% 65.96% 39.46% 94.99% 75.84% 75.84%
cycle by 2013
Euro 6/VI including motor cycle with 77.50% 68.86% 47.19% 99.35% 76.54% 76.54%
better standard on 2024
Note: Summarized of table
145. Base on the analysis we could concluded that any significant effect of implementation of Euro Standard
of motor vehicle. For parameter PM, it could be drop 68.88% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro
2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 76.54% by 2030 when the policy is
tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For parameter SO2, it
could drop 82.39% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since
2007, then it could drop 99.35% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018,
and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For parameter HC, it could drop 58.52% by 2030 as effect of
implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 68.86% by 2030
when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For
parameter CO, it could drop 58.64% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being
applied since 2007, then it could drop 77.50% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV
Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025. For parameter NOx, it could drop 24.55% by 2030
as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 47.19%
by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2025.
All results of estimation emission load reduction are included implementation Euro 3 standard for
motor cycle since 2013, and its tightening with better standard since 2024.
146. It is clear that implementation of Vehicular Emission Reduction Standard based on the
technology approach is effective enough to achieve for better air quality.
4.4.2. Cost Benefit Analysis
147. In relation with Economic Benefit which is gained by the country in 2030 with the parameters
of health cost reduction, production saving and fuel saving; the country will gain IDR 1,970 T
when start to implementing Euro4/IV standard in 2021. Moreover, when the country accelerates
the implementation of Euro 4/IV Standard in 2016, the economic benefit would be double IDR
3,973 T and cut the cost of emissions reduction by 21.30% (Cost Benefit Analysis: Fuel Economy
and Fuel Quality Initiative in Indonesia, 2012).
62
148. Based on the CBA Analysis, it shows that all of technology control strategy could be effective
to reduce emission load and emission concentration from mobile source emissions; see Chapter 4
Vehicle Emission. With refer to the calculation of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), that adopting
Euro 6/VI standard in 2025 could be gain the total benefit IDR 3,493.00 trillion by 2030 with
NPV IDR 338.79 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 337.65 trillion; even though for this
effort government needs to emphasize oil industry to invest with total IDR 926.55 trillion, as well
as auto-industry to invest on the new manufacturing of motor vehicle with IDR 540.77 trillion. At
the economic benefit, the country would be gain total economic benefit from improving public
health with total IDR 2,873.54 trillion; regarding to the vehicular emission reduction, and then it
would be a trigger for production saving with total IDR 54.72 trillion.
Table 10. Cost Benefit Analysis on Vehicular Emission Reduction Strategy
Policy Option
Particular Euro 3 Since

Euro 2 since Euro 4 (Since Euro 6 (Since Scrappage
2013 (2/3- HEV* BEV
2005* 2020)* 2025) Car*
Wheelers)
Cost
Refinery/Energy Storage Production 467,416 0 466,745 926,550 338,794 387,452 464,669
Technology Utilization 493,312 390,921 493,312 540,769 784,586 722,604 30,911
Total Cost 960,728 390,921 960,057 1,467,319 1,123,380 1,110,056 495,580
Benefit
Health Improvement 1,656,264 2,706,545 1,648,305 2,873,522 2,854,542 3,468,269 1,667,728
Production Saving 27,712 45,285 31,387 54,718 448,393 544,797 36,237
Fuel/Energy Saving 286,392 468,001 324,084 564,982 4,601,071 5,590,301 373,975
Total Benefit 1,970,368 3,219,831 2,003,776 3,493,221 7,904,006 9,603,367 2,077,940
FY Until 2030
Net Benefit 1,009,640 2,828,910 1,043,719 2,025,903 6,780,626 8,493,312 1,582,360
NPV; SDR 8 % 38,963 166,967 47,736 338,787 1,563,678 3,264,400 290,778
Net Benefit Average 38,832 166,406 40,143 337,650 260,793 1,415,552 60,860
FY Until 2030
Fuel Saving 286,392 468,001 324,084 564,982 4,601,071 5,590,301 373,975
NPV; SDR 8 % 71,395 178,434 84,727 293,791 1,098,827 1,118,060 91,202
Net Benefit Average 13,018 27,529 14,731 94,164 209,140 559,030 16,999
Source: Author Calculation, 2020; and *CBA Fuel Economy and Fuel Quality in Indonesia, UNEP, 2012.
The control strategy also would save energy through fuel efficiency with total IDR 564.98 trillion
or NPV IDR 293.79 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 94.16 trillion. Other policy
options which have been analyzed on the research of CBA Analysis on Fuel Economy and Fuel
Quality in Indonesia also shows similar result on the economic benefit of Euro 2/II
implementation, HEV (Hybrid Electrified Vehicle), and Scrappage Car, see table 10 (above).
149. Tightening 2-3 Wheelers emission in 2013 with Euro 3 Standard, and followed up by proposal
for more stringent emission standard in 2024 also would be gain economic benefit with total IDR
3,219.83 trillion by 2030; with NPV IDR 166.97 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 166.41
trillion, even though it is also needed that auto-industry willing to invest on the new manufacturing
of 2-3 Wheelers with total IDR 390.92 trillion. At the economic benefit, the country would be
gain from improving public health with total IDR 2,706.55 trillion; regarding to the vehicular
emission reduction, with its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 45.29 trillion,
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and improve the fuel efficiency with total IDR 468.00 trillion or with NPV IDR 178.43 trillion
and net benefit annual average IDR 27.53 trillion.
150. The study also calculates the benefit of policy option of Battery Electrified Vehicle. The result
shows that the highest benefit is resulted from this BEV policy option, which gain the total
economic benefit IDR 9,603.37 trillion by 2030; with NPV IDR 3,264.40 trillion and net benefit
annual average IDR 1,415.55 trillion; of course it needs the investment from electric vehicle
industry with total IDR 1,110.06 trillion (battery industry with total IDR 387.45 trillion, and EV
industry 722.60 trillion). At the economic benefit, the country would be gain from improving
public health with total IDR 3,468.27 trillion; regarding to zero mobile source of vehicular
emission, with its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 544.78 trillion, and
improve the fuel efficiency with total IDR 5,590.30 trillion or with NPV IDR 1,118.06 trillion and
net benefit annual average IDR 559.03 trillion.
151. It is clear that beside the vehicular emission reduction control strategy able to implement
emission reduction, it is also feasible with regard to its ability to create economic benefit from
improving public health, improving production saving, and increasing fuel saving. Something
excellence is the ability to trigger economic growth on automotive sector and oil and gas sector.
At this momentum, the sectors are pressured to have resiliency in relation with their business
sustainability against tightening competition among their competitor at the industry in region by
improving their business innovation. Improving their technology through adopting advance
technology such as Euro 6/VI Standard for auto-manufacturer, and or adopting modern refinery
to produce better fuel quality for oil company would be save them at the next tighten business
competition. Sure, the auto-manufacturer is emphasized to create new market with modified new
variance of motor vehicle with advance technology, lower emission, better fuel economy, and
more safety as well as comfortable. Meanwhile, oil company is emphasized to construct new
refinery or at least to modify their refinery which has capability to produce better fuel quality with
lower production cost.
4.4.3. Automotive Share to the GDP
152. The growth of automotive sector fluctuates, and tends to increase and decrease according to
the economic climate. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has dramatically increase after has
circumstance of contraction in monetary crisis in 1997/1998 which GDP dropped to be USD
95.45 billion (see the graph above), then increase to be double in 5 years and increase again to be
USD 510.2 billion after get another circumstance of contraction from regional economy shock in
2008, and survive in this stage. After the time any other aggressive growth with 5.4% p.a. and
Table 11. Automotive Share to GDP

Particular 2019 2018 2017
Car 192,500,000,000,000.00 189,040,000,000,000.00 192,234,130,000,000.00
Motor Cycle 88,803,000,000,000.00 95,958,000,000,000.00 92,427,400,000,000.00
Total GDP Auto-industry 281,303,000,000,000.00 284,998,000,000,000.00 284,661,530,000,000.00
Total GDP National 10,949,200,000,000,000.00 10,425,400,000,000,000.00 9,912,900,000,000,000.00
GDP Share in % 2.57% 2.73% 2.87%
Source: Author calculation, refer to the BPS data.
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reached GDP USD 912.5 billion in 2013 until decline to be USD 890.8 billion in 2014 as an effect
of the succession of national leadership37. Then it was need almost 2 years to recovery with similar
aggressive growth since 2016 and reach USD 1,015 billion in 2017 and currently is USD 1,133.99
billion (2019).
Graph 28. Trend Indonesia’s GDP
153. Sometime the growth goes dramatically but

in others times it could decrease backward, such
monetary crisis as has been described in above
mentioned, industrial crisis refer to the foreign
product attack, lack on innovation, saturated
market, and decreasing of purchasing power.
Monetary crisis has direct effect to the people
purchasing power, and could influence people
preference to buy goods and services especially
motor vehicle. Another cause which has effect to
Graph 29. Global Vehicle Sales, 2016
decrease automotive demand is industrial crisis in
relation to the foreign product attack. Automotive product in Indonesia is look like left behind
compare to Thailand and Vietnam automotive industry. Besides, it is difficult for Indonesia to
export its automotive product, it is also because that national demand on automotive has been
grabbed by the automotive product from foreign especially from Thailand. It is proven that
aggressiveness of both countries especially Thailand to develop auto-industry has gained to take
over market leader of automotive in South East Asia from Indonesia, see the graph on Global
Vehicle Sales, 2016. The fact shows us that both countries success to adopt more advance
technology rather than others countries in the region. They are able to increase its competitive
advantages through grabbing the advance preferred technology for both, domestic and export
oriented.
37
Political year of 2014 was conducted for presidential election, parliamentary election in all level (national,
provincial, and residency/city) which was started in December 2013 with political campaign process.
65
Graph 30. GDP share of auto-industry
154. Learning from the empirical selling data, and sharing automotive sector to GDP, it shows that
innovation on advance technology are able to improve total selling of motor vehicle which was
facing the saturated market, and finally also emphasize the total GDP. See the graph above that
after government issued new regulation on motor cycle standard (refer to Euro 3)38, it was
triggering demand on motor cycle that before it was start to decline 7.10% in 2011, and reached it
bottom with decline 10.20% in 2012, see table below. Policy reform on advance technology of
motor cycle with has objective both to improve its performance on safety level and
environmentally friendly (reduce emission, lower noisy, and lower fuel consumption); able to
improve total selling of motor cycle by 10.75% on 2013, see table below. In the economic
perspective it would keep the economic stability by creating job, trigger multiplier effect on
derivative business and industry, and increase government revenue (tax, and excise).
Table 12. Total Annual Sales of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia

Base on the Variance
CATEGORY
CATEGORY 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CODE
1. 1.1 Passenger Car 856,074 596,794 772,740 803,783 839,693 672,717 748,378 707,904 755,197 673,544
1.2. Passenger Car Premium 69,150 26,861 27,357 91,668 51,258 76,114 84,909 57,181 61,001 54,406
2. 2.1. Bus Medium 2,547 2,541 3,295 1,644 2,268 1,732 1,713 2,106 2,247 2,004
2.2. Bus Single 6,605 24,836 1,219 2,410 1,566 2,011 2,172 5,462 5,827 5,197
2.3. Bus Articulated 75 302 10 - - - 74 62 66 59
3. 3.1. Truck Small 199,830 354,805 131,458 145,377 158,106 152,259 93,035 165,244 176,283 157,223
3.2. Truck Medium 1 111,440 111,143 112,538 127,785 95,420 70,662 59,661 92,151 98,308 87,679
3.3. Truck Medium 2 33,098 27,428 34,091 29,504 38,322 23,008 19,079 27,369 29,198 26,041
3.4. Truck Single 1 25,056 22,129 31,552 26,118 20,634 14,407 14,941 20,720 22,104 19,714
3.5. Truck Single 2 1,075 1,314 1,805 1,058 612 474 308 889 949 846
3.6. Truck Large 264 74 165 446 149 134 402 219 233 208
4 Motor Cycle 8,311,095 7,761,153 7,541,842 8,351,469 5,876,926 5,276,583 7,000,032 6,500,246 6,383,108 6,487,460
TOTAL 9,616,311 8,929,380 8,658,072 9,581,262 7,084,954 6,290,101 8,024,704 7,579,553 7,534,521 7,514,381
Source: GAIKINDO, and AISI, processed by KPBB.
38
Minister of Environment Decree No 10/2012 toward Emission Standard for Motor Cycle, junto Minister of
Environment Decree No 23/2012 toward Amendment Regulation of MOE Decree No 10/2012.
66
Graph 31. Total Auto-industry GDP share to Indonesia GDP
4.5. Lesson Learnt 1: Euro 4/IV Implementation in Other Countries
4.5.1. Thailand
155. Highlight: Thailand has enforced the Euro 4/IV emission standard in 2012. Compared to
other countries, Thailand still uses the Euro 4/IV standard which is much slower than the
countries that are the world's major automobile production bases. In this regard, Thailand
Industrial Standard Institute (TISI) the national standard organization for Thailand has received
an order to expedite the adjustment of emission standard to Euro 5/V by 2021. Therefore, TISI
will accelerate the implementation by developing Thai Industrial Standards (TIS) which will be
effective by 2021 and will continue to adjust the emission standards to Euro 6/VI by 2022. As
lesson learnt from Thailand, we could highlight as follow:
- Thailand experiences significant increase of registered vehicles from 1993 to 2016. That
growth encouraged the fuel consumption in Thailand
- Thailand needs for 10ppm S diesel and gasoline fuels due to PM2.5 and O3 still exceeded the
ambient air quality standards
- Bangkok also experienced extreme traffic congestion in urban areas and dispersion of air
pollutants in urban areas and air quality in the urban areas in Bangkok will become worse again
- To show the commitment of government, Thailand invests much in air pollution control in
the transport sector, particularly in efforts to improve vehicle emission standards and fuel
quality; it also has adopted emission standards for new vehicles since 1995, following the
European emission standards. So, right now in Thailand the Euro 4 standard is enforced for
light duty and gasoline vehicles, while the EURO III standard is enforced for heavy duty
vehicles and motorcycles. On fuel quality, Thailand has adopted petroleum fuel specifications
67
since 1989, since then, gasoline and diesel fuels used in Thailand have undergone revisions
several times, and current fuel quality meets Euro 4/IV standards. On current production of
cars and motorcycles in Thailand, it was clarified that Euro 4/IV has been applied for new
production.
- Thailand develops a future roadmap for implementing mitigation measures in the transport
sector in Thailand, which includes: Pollution Control Board of Thailand established a Sub-
Committee on Emission Standards for Motor Vehicles in Thailand; the sub-committee
established 4 task forces (Task Force on Vehicle Emission Standards, Task Force on Fuel
Quality Standards, Task Force on Inspection and Maintenance Program, and Task Force on
Emission Inventory for Bangkok); the sub-committee plans future fuel quality and vehicle
emission standards and their implementation timelines by the first quarter of 2019 for
submission to the Pollution Control Board.
4.5.2. Chile
156. Santiago has had a Euro 4/IV or US Tier 2, bin 8 standard for petrol vehicles since 2010, and
Euro 5/V or US Tier 2, bin 5 for diesel vehicles since 2011 and the city had used 15 ppm sulfur
fuels since 2009 – three years before the rest of the country. The 2012 - 2013 transition to a
national 15ppm sulfur in fuels standard for diesel and petrol was supported by UNEP and linked
to new standards for vehicles: Euro 5 for light diesel vehicles from September 1, 2012 and Euro
V for medium diesel vehicles went in force from September 1, 2013 followed by Euro 4/IV and
Euro 5/V for petrol engines since 2014.
157. In Santiago, air pollution has been a prime challenge for the last three decades and buses are
the major source for particulate matter and NOx pollution in the city. Since early the nineties,
adoption of several actions to curb air pollution was taken, including cleaner fuels and emissions
standards for new vehicles. These have produced a continuous improvement in the annual average
PM2.5 levels measured in Santiago’s air. The 2012 annual average PM2.5 levels were 65% lower
than in 1989. In early 2016 the Ministry of Environment of Chile announced that Euro 6/VI or
USEPA 2010 technology would be mandatory for every new bus purchased and operating in the
Tran-Santiago public transport system as of January 2019. This makes Santiago the first city to
commit to soot-free technology for PM2.5 and NOx emission reductions. The Tran-Santiago fleet
consists of 6,500 buses; 82% are currently Euro III standard (3,000 of which are equipped with
diesel particulate filters) while the remaining 18% have Euro V technology.
158. Policy innovation in Chile. Chile was the first country in Latin America to adopt ultra-low
sulfur diesel and petrol fuel standards in 2009. The country has since led the way in the region in
terms of cleaner fuels and vehicles, becoming the first Latin American country to adopt a joint
CO2 and pollutant tax in October 2014 that applies to light duty trucks and SUVs in addition to
light duty vehicles. Process to adopt low sulfur fuel in Santiago, in 2004 Santiago introduced 50
ppm sulfur in diesel followed by 15 ppm in 2009. Euro III technology for buses was adopted in
2004 and the requirement of diesel particulate filters (DPFs) for every new bus in operation from
2009. This changeover was supported by UNEP, the US-EPA and Swiss Cooperation Agency.
159. Due to severe pollution problems, many vehicle emission standards for the Santiago
Metropolitan Region are more stringent and/or introduced earlier that those for the rest of the
country. The result of all efforts of Santiago, the final version of the Decontamination Plan for
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Santiago was presented by the Minister of Environment and the Governor of Santiago
Metropolitan Region in October 2016 and new buses purchased by Tran-Santiago are required to
meet Euro VI standards from January 2017. Santiago’s commitment is a strong signal to bus
manufacturers both regionally and internationally that there is growing demand for cleaner bus
technology in cities for better air quality and emission reductions.
4.5.3. Vietnam
160. The urban air quality is challenging, and PM has become the most serious air pollutant in
Vietnam; 70% of air pollution in Hanoi is caused by traffic. Regarding Euro 4/IV implementation,
starting on January 1, 2017, Euro 4/IV standards for cars, Euro 3 standards for motorcycles; and
starting on March 31, 2017 vehicles using diesel that do not pass the standard have to move to
seaports and to border gates. On opportunities, Vietnam encourages access to clean,
environmentally friendly fuel to reduce the risk of pollution; vehicle manufacturers need to
innovate to meet standards; develop biofuels to reduce the impact of oil suppliers; reduce costs
for fuel, control prices of other goods and stabilize trading. The Euro 4/IV roadmap is effective
for vehicles produced or imported but not yet fully applied to vehicles used; many motorcycles
are using Euro 3. The roadmap should have an effective way to handle these vehicles. The Euro
6/VI roadmap application depends on quantity, type, fuel, transportation and characteristics of
each country.
4.3.5. India
161. With refer to transportpolicy.net, in India, the country had a leapfrog from BS IV to BS VI in
2020. India have been applying Euro 4/IV standard (BS 4/IV Standards) to all new vehicles since
April 2017. Then India takes leapfrog from Euro 4/IV to Euro 6/IV also to all new vehicles
nationwide starting this April 2020. Also, heavy-duty vehicles, these standards leapfrogged from
Euro IV equivalent directly to Euro VI equivalent standards39. Since the year 2000, India started
adopting European emission and fuel regulations for four-wheeled light-duty and for heavy-duty
vehicles. India’s own emission regulations still apply to two- and three-wheeled vehicles. For 2-
and 3-wheelers, Bharat Stage 2 applied from April 1, 2005 and Stage 3 standards came into force
in April 1, 2010. Bharat Stage 3 standards for gasoline fueled 2-wheelers came into force April 1,
2016. Bharat Stage 6/VI standards for SI and CI 2- and 3-wheelers were proposed in February
2016.
162. The roll out of Bharat Stage 4/IV limits nationwide was delayed by the challenge of convincing
fuel producers to make the necessary investments required to supply 50 ppm sulfur fuel
nationwide. Potential solutions that have been suggested including deregulation of diesel prices,
environment compensation charge on diesel vehicles and an additional levy on diesel fuel.
163. Bharat Stage 4/IV fuel was required nationwide from April 2017 followed by a further step
up to the BS 5/V in April 2020 and BS 6/VI in April 2024. Draft recommendations discussed
prior to the report’s release included a national Bharat Phase 4/IV+ stage (40 ppm sulfur) starting
in 2017 and a national Bharat Stage 5/V fuel standard staring in 2021. The Oil Ministry supported
39
https://dieselnet.com/standards/in/
69
proceeding directly from BS 4/IV to BS 6/VI but this was opposed by the automotive industry.
In November 2015, a draft notice was published by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
announcing that BS 5/V would be implemented across the country starting 2019 and BS 6/VI
starting 2021. While the automotive industry was supportive of the dates for BS 5/V, they claimed
advancing the dates for BS 6/VI by more than 1 year from those recommended by the Expert
Committee would not leave sufficient time for testing and validation and were unrealistic.
4.4. Lesson Learnt 2: Euro 6/VI Standard
4.4.2. Euro 6/VI Implementation in Various Countries
164. The G-20 countries account for 90% of global vehicle sales, and 17 out of the 20 members
have chosen to follow the European regulatory pathway for vehicle emissions control. The
European pathway consists of six stages of increasingly stringent emission control requirements,
starting with Euro 1/I in 1992, and progressing through to Euro 6/VI in 2015. A number of
Asian and Latin American countries currently have Euro 2/II, 3/III, and 4/IV standards in force.
The European Commission’s Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, adopted in 2005, sought to
reduce transportation emissions as part of an overall air-quality improvement strategy. The Euro
6/VI emission standards specifically noted that a “considerable reduction in NOX [oxides of
nitrogen] emissions from diesel vehicles is necessary to improve air quality and comply with limit
values for air pollution”.
165. It was clear in 2005 that member states would face difficulties achieving ambient NO2 limit
values by 2010, and that adoption of Euro 6/VI emission standards would be a determining factor.
The proposal further noted that meeting the NOX emission standards “requires reaching
ambitious limit values at the Euro 6 stage without foregoing the advantages of diesel engines in
terms of fuel consumption and emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide.”3
166. The Commission recognized that by setting more ambitious emission standards for NOx at
an early stage would provide long term planning security for vehicle manufacturers who wish to
continue pursuing diesel technology. Euro VI limits for heavy-duty vehicles were introduced in
Regulation 595/2009, and were amended by Regulations 582/2011 and 133/2014. The Euro 6
limits for light-duty vehicles came earlier and were introduced along with Euro 5 limits under
Regulation 715/2007, promulgated in 2007. The simultaneous release of the Euro 5 and 6 light-
duty vehicle standards provided the automotive industry with a longer timeline to develop
strategies for meeting future emission limits. Other countries following the European pathway can
move directly to Euro 6 for light-duty vehicles and Euro VI for heavy-duty vehicles now that the
technology is available to meet the emission standards.
167. A fundamental prerequisite for the efficient operation of exhaust gas after treatment devices
for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles is to have fuel with very low sulfur content. The sulfur
content of gasoline and diesel fuels in Europe has therefore been regulated to meet very stringent
fuel-quality standards. Prior to the Euro 3 and 4 standards, regulations required a minimum diesel
cetane number of 51, beginning in 2000, and a maximum diesel sulfur content that year of 350
ppm. Starting in 2005, the maximum diesel sulfur content was limited to 50 ppm. Gasoline sulfur
content was regulated to 150 ppm in 2000, and 50 ppm in 2005. By 2005, Europe began the phase-
70
in of virtually sulfur-free gasoline and diesel fuels (<10 ppm sulfur), replacing 50 ppm fuels, which
were ultimately phased out by 2009. Without these fuel-quality improvements, the increasing
stringency of the limits in European standards would not have been possible.
168. Defeat devices that reduce the effectiveness of emission controls, along with “irrational”
control strategies, 4 were prohibited in Directive 2001/27/EC for diesel vehicles. Additionally,
durability and on-board diagnostic (OBD) requirements were introduced for Euro IV and V in
Directive 2005/55/EC, and the technical requirements were specified in Directive 2005/78/EC.
Directive 2005/55/EC also restated the emission limits for Euro IV and V with additional
language on the verification of European Transient Cycle (ETC) tests.
Table 13. Timeline for Adopted Nationwide HDV Emission Standard (all sales and registration)
4.4.2.1. India
169. For over a decade, cities in India with larger vehicle populations and poorer air quality than
the rest of the country have required new vehicles to meet emission standards at one Euro level
above the rest of the nation; currently, they follow Euro 4/IV-equivalent standards while the rest
of the country follows Euro 3/III-equivalent. To enable this, these cities have been supplied with
lower sulfur fuel (50 ppm gasoline and diesel compared to 150 ppm gasoline and 350 ppm diesel in
the rest of the country).
170. Initially, only Delhi and three other megacities implemented more stringent Euro standards.
From 2005 onwards 13 cities moved to Euro 3/III standards, while the rest of the country
progressed to Euro 2/II. Currently, 30 cities require Euro 4 vehicles and are supplied with 50 ppm
sulfur fuel. The number of cities receiving <50 ppm sulfur fuel and mandating Euro 4 standards
will expand to 63 by 2015.64 Meanwhile, India is in the process of establishing a long-term
roadmap for vehicular emissions that will improve fuel quality (first to 50 ppm nationwide
followed by 10 ppm) along with a move to tighter emission standards (Euro 5/6 as well as Euro
V/VI).
71
171. On February 19, 2016, the Indian Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) issued
a draft notification of Bharat Stage (BS) VI emission standards for all major on-road vehicle
categories in India.1 The standards apply to light- and heavy-duty vehicles, as well as two- and
three-wheeled vehicles. As proposed, the BS VI standards will go into effect for all vehicles in
these categories manufactured on or after April 1, 2020.
172. The draft BS VI proposal specifies mass emission standards, type approval requirements, and
on-board diagnostic (OBD) system and durability levels for each vehicle category and sub-classes
therein. In addition, reference and commercial fuel specifications are included in the BS VI
proposal. The adoption of the proposed BS VI emission standards will essentially bring Indian
motor vehicle regulations into alignment with European Union regulations for light-duty
passenger cars and commercial vehicles, heavy-duty trucks and buses, and two-wheeled vehicles.
While not yet reaching European levels, more stringent emission standards are also set for three-
wheeled vehicles. With this proposal, the Indian Government has confirmed its intention to
leapfrog BS V level emission standards and move directly to the more stringent and robust BS VI
level. The proposed BS VI standards are far-reaching in scope and incorporate substantial changes
to existing Bharat Stage III and IV emission standards. Of particular note is the tightening of
particulate matter (PM) mass emission limits and the introduction of particle number (PN) limits
for light- and heavy-duty vehicles (LDV, HDV) fitted with gasoline direct injection (GDI) and
compression ignition (CI), or diesel, engines. As evidenced by the adoption of nominally
equivalent PM and PN standards in Europe, this step will likely lead to the near-universal
application of diesel particulate filters (DPF) to control PM emissions from new diesel LDVs and
HDVs. A second important component of the BS VI standards is the expansion of type approval
and in-service conformity test requirements for LDVs and HDVs. For LDVs, provisions are
included in the BS VI proposal for real-world driving cycle emission measurements using portable
emissions measurement systems (PEMS). For HDVs, the European Stationary Cycle (ESC) and
European Transient Cycle (ETC) used for BS III and IV type approval are replaced with the World
Harmonized Steady-State Cycle (WHSC) and World Harmonized Transient Cycle (WHTC),
respectively.
4.4.1.3. Brazil
173. In early February, CETESB, São Paulo’s Environmental Agency, announced new phases
for Brazil’s vehicle emission standards, starting with heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) in 2019 and
motorcycles in 2020. Standards for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) will be implemented
progressively in different phases up to the final phase in 2026. Technical details were not
made public when the schedule for phasing in the new regulations was announced. This is a
moment of opportunity, then, to highlight the significant benefits that will accrue to Brazil if
the new standards for HDVs are aligned as closely as possible with the European Union's
Euro VI standard.
174. Many cities in Brazil do not comply with the air quality guidelines recommended by the
World Health Organization, so further action is necessary to improve air quality and protect
public health. HDVs—trucks and buses—represent an effective target for early emission
control. Although HDVs represent less than 5% of the total on-road fleet in Brazil, HDVs
contribute to 90% of emissions of harmful pollutants from all on-road vehicles.
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175. Brazil’s HDV emission standards are already followed the European pathway. Brazil’s
HDVs have complied with P-7 standards, which are Euro V-equivalent, since 2012, and thus
Euro VI standards are the natural next step. Euro VI standards (and their counte rparts in
Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United States) are the most stringent and effective HDV
standards ever implemented. They include lower emission limits than previous standards and
a new limit for particle number. Euro VI standards also guarantee in-use compliance beyond
the laboratory tests through more representative test cycles, cold-start requirements, more
robust on-board diagnostics (OBD), better durability requirements, and in-use testing.
176. These details matter. Brazil should adopt Euro VI in its entirety, because deviations could
have unintended consequences. Euro V vehicles have struggled to meet emission limits in
the real world in many markets because test cycles do not adequately represent normal driving
conditions, especially in urban areas. This means that automakers designed trucks and buses
to pass certification tests, but not necessarily to comply with emission limits in the real world .
In Brazil, the problem with P-7 vehicles was worse. Although Euro V vehicles are supposed
to lose power and eventually stop if adequate urea (sold as ARLA-32 in Brazil) is not used,
P-7 trucks failed to do so and enabled drivers to operate without adequate ARLA-32.
Adopting Euro VI standards with as little deviation as possible would minimize the risk of
such compliance issues.
177. If well implemented, advancing to Euro VI-equivalent standards in Brazil would fix the
urea/ARLA-32 non-compliance problem, ensure that vehicles are performing adequately
under normal driving conditions, and most importantly, improve air quality—alignment with
Euro VI would result in a 90% reduction in emissions from NO x and PM in comparison to
the latest technology produced locally (P-7/Euro V).
178. Euro VI-equivalent standards in Brazil would also be cost effective. The costs associated
with advanced emission controls would increase by less than 2%, and the economic benefits
associated with fewer premature deaths outweigh technology costs by a ratio of 11 to 1. Euro
VI-equivalent standards in Brazil would prevent ~74,000 deaths and generate a net economic
benefit of $67 billion over 30 years (assuming implementation in 2018). It is hard to imagine
another public policy with a better return on investment from a societal point of view.
179. In addition, the production of cleaner truck and bus technology would increase Brazil’s
industry competitiveness. Until the implementation of current P-7 standards in 2012, Brazil
had consistently adopted clean vehicle standards before other developing countries. Since
then, Brazil has fallen behind Mexico, China, and India, all of which have proposed or
adopted their new phases equivalent to Euro VI standards (see chart). Santiago, Mexico City,
and Istanbul have also announced their commitment to Euro VI-equivalent urban buses, and
more cities are likely to follow. Advancing to the latest HDV emission standards in Brazil
would also increase access to soot-free engine technology throughout Latin America. This is
particularly important in countries such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru,
which are not major producers of HDV engines and thus follow Brazil’s timeline by default.
180. Brazil has already laid the foundation for Euro VI-equivalent standards. To function
properly, Euro VI emission-control systems require low-sulfur diesel (10 ppm or less) and
urea/ARLA-32, both of which are already available in Brazil because they are also required
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for P-7/Euro V vehicles. ARLA-32 is currently sold nationwide, and 10-ppm diesel is sold in
major cities and select stations outside major cities, to supply P-7 vehicles. To ensure the
proper operation and avoid mis-fueling of P-7 and more advanced vehicles in the long run,
500-ppm diesel should be phased out of regions outside major metropolitan areas. The 2019
implementation timeline for the new HDV standards is appropriate and realistic given that
Brazil is already at Euro V and has access to both 10ppm diesel and ARLA -32. Maintaining
this timeline is crucial: Assuming the new standards are equivalent to Euro VI standards, with
each year of delay of implementation (i.e., 2020 instead of 2019), there would be an additional
2,500 premature deaths.
181. About half of all HDVs sold worldwide already meet the Euro VI standards, so we are
not talking about cutting edge technology. The headquarters of all automakers in Brazil are
already producing Euro VI vehicles for developed markets, and advancing to Euro VI -
equivalent vehicles in Brazil would close the gap between cleaner vehicles sold elsewhere and
their dirtier cousins currently sold in Brazil. Many Brazilian lungs will be grateful.
4.4.1.4. Australia
182. With Euro 6 emissions standard implementation in Australia, average CO2 emissions need to
be below 130g/km across a car company's entire range. There are also tighter restrictions on a
wide range of pollutants including carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, NOx and particulates. The
latest step is Euro 6, which became mandatory in September 2015.
183. Australia can have far less auto emissions and cleaner air, all without any significant cost to
Australia or Australians. In fact, normal Australians will save money with Euro 6 emissions
compliant cars in Australia. Australia can adopt the European Union Euro 6 auto emission
standards with not much more than the stroke of a pen. The benefits are huge, with virtually no
cost and no obvious opponents. Euro 6 Emissions for Australia are to reduce air pollution and
follow the European Commission first introduced Euro 1 in 1993. Since then, legislation has
progressed in a number of steps, resulting in the development of newer and cleaner engine
technologies. The latest step is Euro 6, which became mandatory in September 2015. With it,
average CO2 emissions need to be below 130g/km across a car company's entire range. There are
also tighter restrictions on a wide range of pollutants including carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,
NOx and particulates. Euro 6 more than halves the amount of nitrogen oxides that a diesel engine
can emit, with a cap of 80mg/km. Euro 6 is focusing on NOx because it is one of the most harmful
greenhouse gases. It can last up to 150 years, which is significantly longer than other greenhouse
gases. The overall aim of Euro 6 is to reduce auto emissions, thereby limiting the impact on the
environment and public health. Meeting Euro 6 emissions for Australia is relatively
straightforward for petrol, LPG and hybrid engines. Ford, for example, will expand the use of its
EcoBoost powertrain across more vehicles. A huge amount of development work has been done
by car manufacturers to develop cleaner engine technologies.
184. As a result, average emissions for carbon dioxide across current manufacturers’ ranges sits at
approximately 130g/km, and the aim is to reduce that to 95g/km by 2020. Considering that the
average emissions in 2000 were 180g/km, this is a huge improvement. Diesel engines present
more of a challenge. Diesel is a bigger culprit than petrol when it comes to nitrogen oxides (NOx)
and particulates (PM). Most manufacturers are turning to after-treatment systems such as the Lean
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NOx trap or Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR), which works with a reduction agent. This will
increase the cost of purchasing and running diesels only and may result in fewer diesel car sales.
4.4.1.5. UK Euro 6
185. In the UK they have had rules and regulations for car exhaust emissions since the 1970s. But
growing concerns over health and environmental risks have seen the laws become much tougher.
Euro 6 emission rules are now in full force. Whatever personal views on pollution and climate
change, the impact of the stricter measures is unavoidable. With the London ULEZ scheme
now in affect and set to expand in 2021, as a UK driver entering the capital at any point, having
a handle on Euro 6 compliance is essential. Fortunately, UK’s ultimate guide to Euro 6 Emission
Standards will help car users make the best of the situation, whether they are about to buy a new
Euro 6 vehicle or sell a car, want to save money in the future, or planning a road trip.
4.4.1.4.1. What are the Euro 6 Emission standards?
186. Petrol/Gasoline and diesel combustion engines inevitably produce emissions as part of their
normal operation. The Euro 6 standards were introduced within the EU to try and ensure vehicle
manufacturers keep harmful emissions below specific limits. Only aero-planes and oceangoing
ships are exempt from testing. Everything else, from scooters to trucks, has a set of standards to
meet before they can be Euro 6 compliant and sold within the EU. That includes both
petrol/gasoline and diesel cars. The rules cover nitrogen oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO),
hydrocarbons (THC and NMHC) and particulate matter (PM). The last of which is the soot you
can see emanating from the rear of diesel vehicles. Limits are different for petrol and diesel
engines:
 Euro 6 Diesel Emissions Standards (grammes per kilometer): 0.50 CO, 0.080 NOx,
0.005 PM
 Euro 6 Petrol Emissions Standards (grammes per kilometer): 1.0 CO, 0.060 NOx, 0,005
PM
187. To confuse things more, changes have been made to the testing procedure following the diesel
emissions scandal. The standard was originally applied to cars type approved in September 2014,
and first registered on the road in September 2015. Originally the testing was purely carried out
in laboratory conditions (known as WLTP), and the testing methods were updated to create a new
Euro 6c designation effective from September 1st, 2017. But a new test on public roads to simulate
Real Driving Emissions (RDE) has now been introduced, and cars passing are designed as Euro
6d-TEMP. This is a temporary measure until 2020, when Euro 6d takes full effect. But whether
the car is Euro 6, Euro 6c, Euro 6d-TEMP or Euro 6d, the emission amounts are the same. The
differences are purely about testing and how much discrepancy is allowed between the lab figures
and those from testing on real roads. Euro 6-TEMP allows the figures to deviate by 110%, but
for full Euro 6d approval, the deviation allowed will be 43%. Most new cars produced since the
end of 2017 are Euro 6d-TEMP compliant, and some manufacturers such as Jaguar and Mercedes
already exceed the full Euro 6d regulations.
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4.4.1.4.2. The Euro 6/VI Emission Standard
4.4.1.4.2.1. How did the Emission Standards come into being?
188. The first rules covering air pollution from motor vehicles were introduced on 20 th March,
1970. The Council Directive 70/220/EEC introduced tests for carbon monoxide, and
hydrocarbons. All of the later Euro standards are amendments which have introduced tougher
limits and testing. They’re listed below, alongside the date they applied for a vehicle first
registration:
 Euro 1: January 1993
 Euro 6: September 2015
 Euro 6d-TEMP: September 2019
 Euro 6d: January 2021.
189. The purpose of these measures was to combat the risks to human health and the environment
due to vehicle pollution. For example, road transport accounted for 34% of all UK’s NOx
emissions in 2015. Naturally the effect is greater in congested urban cities. The emissions
contribute to smog, acid rain and other air pollution. Carbon monoxide also creates pollution, and
is a leading contributor to climate change.
190. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) claim that it would take 50 new
cars today to produce the same amount of pollutant emissions as one vehicle built in the 1970’s.
An even stricter Euro 7 standard will be unveiled in the next few years. Partly this will continue
the progress towards lower emissions, but it will also hopefully reduce some of the confusion
around the various Euro 6 testing standards and ongoing compliance. This is likely to appear
soon, as countries including the UK plan to stop the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the next
two decades.
4.4.1.2.2. How will the Euro 6 emission standards affect me?
191. There are a number of ways the Euro 6 emission standards affect the typical car owner. The
first is the amount people have to pay for car tax. Vehicle tax for cars registered on or after 1 st
March 2001 is based on CO2 emissions and fuel type. Diesel cars which meet the Real Driving
Emissions 2 (RDE2) standards for full Euro 6d compliance pay substantially less in tax for the
first registration year. The difference can vary from £15 up to £535, which is a significant amount.
The other most noticeable effect is if a person drives into major UK and European cities. In the
UK, the London Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) currently affects pre-Euro 6 diesels and
pre-Euro 4 petrol cars with a standard daily charge of £12.50.
192. Similar schemes are also in operation across most major European countries. And while some
cities focus purely on Heavy Goods vehicles, many also include passenger cars. The regulations
are often similar to London, but some do have more stringent rules. For example, from July 4 th,
2019, cars must be at least Euro 2 to enter Paris between 8am-8pm. But the plan is to increase the
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minimum standard until all petrol and diesel vans will be banned from Paris in 2030. If a person
is planning a European road trip, it’s increasingly important to check the relevant city restrictions
before travelling in an older vehicle. Information is provided by country or city on the official EU
Urban Access Regulations website.
193. Diesel cars use a process called Selective Catalytic Reduction, or AdBlue, to lower the amount
of oxides. This injects a solution into the exhaust gases which does need refilling every few
thousand miles, although it’s relatively cheap at around £1.50 per liter for a dealer to top up your
system. Although the UK is still negotiating an exit from the European Union, the emissions
standards are unlikely to be changed. Not only will car manufacturers continue to build to the
compliance specifications of the largest available market, but many non-European countries are
also slowly adopting the same emissions standards.
194. Ultimately this all factors into the used car market. If a person owns an older car and that
person lives in a commuter area, some car buyers may be put off. At the moment, other cities are
still considering whether to implement more low emission zones in the UK, so the effect on used
prices is relatively limited. But if a person has the option to choose a Euro 6 standard car versus
a slightly older model, it may well be a better investment for the future. A specific guide is available
for those who still decide whether to buy or sell a diesel car.
4.4.1.2.3. Is my car Euro 6 compliant?
195. All new cars registered from September 1st, 2015 should be Euro 6 compliant. And from
September 2018, the Euro Emission Standard of your car can be found on the V5C document.
If you don’t have a logbook which tells you the emissions rating for your car, it’s worth doing a
vehicle specific check. Not only could your car have had a delay between production and
registration, but even different trim and specifications of a specific car model can vary in emissions
ratings.
196. The good news is that you may be pleasantly surprised. Some car manufacturers have been
producing Euro 6 compliant cars since as early as 2012. With earlier cars, particularly diesels, it
tends to be the environmentally-focused ranges that qualify. For instance, BMWs with the
optional ‘BluePerformance’ pack, or ‘BlueHDi’ Citroen’s and Peugeot’s tend to be compliant with
the regulations. Other brands with a wide range of earlier Euro 6 models include Volvo, Mazda,
Audi and Mercedes. You can check either by contacting your manufacturer, or using an online
checking tool.
4.4.1.2.4. Euro 6 car check?
197. A number of services exist for checking the emissions rating of your car and therefore its Euro
6 compliance. At the same time you can also find out tax information and cost. The Vehicle
Certification Agency offer one of the services which covers all new cars currently on sale in the
UK, and used cars that were first registered on or after March 1st, 2001. You’ll need to know the
month and year in which the car was first registered. Then you can select the type of fuel,
transmission, manufacturer, model and engine description. To see the actual Euro Emissions
Standard, click on the Description for more details, and you’ll find all the information under
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‘Further Details’. A variety of other services exist, including AutoGuru, and the HPI euro
Emission Standards Checker.
4.4.1.2.5. Euro 6 diesel cars explained
198. As mentioned above, to meet the Euro 6 Emission Standards, many diesel cars use a Selective
Catalytic Reduction, or AdBlue process to lower the amount of oxides emitted. This system needs
to be regularly refilled, and mileages vary between cars and owners. Many drivers will find it
coincides with their annual service. But if you regularly cover long distances, it may be a more
frequent occurrence. For example, Jaguar quote the range at one liter used for between 400-550
miles depending on your model of car and driving style. This gives you 5,000-9,400 miles between
refills (again, depending on the Jaguar you own). When it comes to choosing to buy a diesel car,
most models registered since September 2015 will be compliant. Manufacturers with earlier
examples of Euro 6 diesel cars include:
 Audi  Mercedes  Volkswagen
 BMW  Mini  Volvo
 Citroen  Peugeot
 Mazda  Vauxhall
4.4.1.2.2. Euro 6 conversion – how to convert your car to meet the Euro 6 standards
199. If you own an older car which isn’t Euro 6 compliant, you may be wondering if you can
convert it to meet the latest standards. For petrol cars this isn’t really a possibility. The range of
technology involved in meeting Euro 6 emissions standards is pretty complex, and integrated into
the design of the car. So it wouldn’t make financial sense compared to buying a car already built
with those regulations in mind. You could possibly switch to electric or Liquid Petroleum Gas.
But LPG conversions cost as much as £2,000, and you only save £10 per year on road tax as an
alternatively-fuelled car.
200. There are substantial savings on fuel costs, but LPG has specific rules and regulations
regarding usage. Meanwhile converting a car to electric power can cost from £12,000 to £20,000
if you hire a specialist company, so it would have to be a pretty special car to justify the investment.
Diesel vehicles can potentially be converted to meet Euro 6 emission standards. Because a large
part of the process to reduce harmful gases takes place in the exhaust system, it’s a more viable
option. But while you could potentially upgrade any diesel, it doesn’t make sense for most
motorists. It will add weight, require substantial space around the exhaust system, and the cost is
likely to outweigh the benefit. That’s why most conversion services and products are aimed at the
commercial market, particularly larger and more expensive vehicles. SCR systems range from
around £1,200 to £3,000.
201. There’s also an issue that there’s no current certification for retrofit systems. Therefore, it is
difficult to know whether or not your work will result in a Euro 6 compliant car. Or whether the
work will be recognized by authorities operating the low emissions zones in the UK and Europe.
In Germany, the transport ministry has released guides for getting regulatory approval on
retrofitted exhaust systems, with Volkswagen and Daimler offering to cover some of the costs.
But in the UK, the focus so far has been on upgrading public vehicles including buses and black
cabs. Ultimately if you’re considering converting an older diesel to meet the Euro 6 emission
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standards, it’s probably worth waiting if possible. As it becomes a more common need, the process
should become cheaper and easier. But at the moment, it’s hard to justify on practical and financial
grounds.
4.5. Lesson Learnt 3: Cost Benefit Analysis on Euro 6/VI Standard
4.5.6. Costs benefits of implementing stringent emission standards
202. ICCT estimates that the technology costs for HDV are more expensive than for LDV and more
expensive for diesel vehicles than gasoline ones. To be successful in doing the leapfrog to the
global emission standard, deployment of ultralow-sulfur fuel in the Indonesian market will require
upgrading fuel quality standards for both domestic production and imported fuels. The
incremental costs of importing or refining cleaner fuels are estimated to be 1.6¢ for 10 ppm
gasoline and diesel when compared with 50 ppm fuel.
203. The incremental costs associated with improved vehicle emission standards also include
operating costs, i.e., the costs of cleaner fuels, diesel exhaust fluid, and filter maintenance, and
these were also evaluated.
4.5.7. Implications for fuel policy
204. Both imported and domestically produced fuel will need to be brought up to standard.
Indonesia is one of the few ASEAN countries that has not adopted standards for or committed
to use ultralow-sulfur fuel. With the Euro 4/IV emission standards being implemented for diesel
engines and fuel in 2021, and potentially more stringent Euro 6/VI on the way, producing and
importing sufficient fuel that meets ultralow-sulfur requirements (maximum 10-ppm) is essential
to ensure the full implementation of the soot-free engine standards.
4.5.8. Examples from Argentina Euro VI cost and benefit study on Heavy Duty Vehicle
205. Beginning of 2020, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) released their
cost and benefit analysis of Euro VI Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) Emissions standards in
Argentina. To reduce the health impacts from HDV, Argentina’s government has introduced
progressively more stringent emission standards, up to Euro V standards in 2016. By
implementing a standard which is one step ahead, or equivalent to Euro VI would put Argentina
on an equal position among other G-20 countries, and reduce new HDV tailpipe PM 2,5 and NOx
emissions by roughly 90% compared with the current standards which in place. In that study, the
ICCT estimated that compared with the baseline scenario of Euro V standards, the
implementation of more stringent Euro VI standards in 2023 would avoid an estimated 1,950 (832
– 2,870) premature deaths and 51,300 (22,000 – 75,600) years of life list from 2023 to 2050. Further
on, they found that with each 1 USD invested to comply with Euro VI equivalent standards will
produce 3,60 USD in health benefits from reduced PM2,5 exposure alone over the next 30 years.
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4.5.9. Examples from cleaner fuels and vehicles in India
206. Earlier in 2012, ICCT also published the cost and benefits of cleaner fuels and vehicles in
India. India has come a long way in tightening fuel quality and vehicle emission standards. Between
2000 and 2010, emission standards went from Bharat I to Bharat III/IV with the Bharat standards
equivalent to the Euro standards with modification according to the local situation, such as
demand, car manufacturer capacity, and availability fuel with certain specification. During the same
period, gasoline sulfur content fell from 2,000 ppm to 150 ppm, and diesel sulfur content fell from
10,000 ppm to 350 ppm. Cities mandating Bharat IV standards have seen even more progress;
they now have fuels with no more than 50 ppm sulfur. But even these cities often cannot fully
realize the benefits of low-sulfur fuels because many vehicles operating within their limits refuel
in other areas with higher sulfur levels. Investing in ultra-low-sulfur fuel (ULSF, fuels with less
than 10 ppm sulfur content) and clean vehicle technologies in India will not come without costs.
But the benefits of these investments, in terms of reduced healthcare costs and higher productivity,
far outweigh the costs.
207. Economic benefits were compared with extra costs associated with ULSF production and
cleaner vehicles. Per liter cost increases for ULSF production were multiplied by projections for
on-road fuel consumption in India. Similarly, clean vehicle costs per vehicle were multiplied by
projected vehicle sales.
208. The study team compares annual costs and benefits under the Alternate scenario between
2010 and 2030. The chart shows that while there are costs associated with clean fuels and vehicles,
benefits far outweigh costs. Benefits continue to rise, as vehicle population increases and lower
ambient PM2.5 concentrations reduce premature mortality. On the other hand, learning and
economies of scale stabilize costs in the long-term. Cumulatively from 2010-2030, fuel costs add
up to $19 billion (Rs. 94,000 crore) and vehicle costs add up to $170 billion (Rs. 850,000 crore).
These compare to cumulative benefits of $673 billion (Rs. 3,365,000 crore). Subtracting costs from
benefits, India stands to gain a net benefit of about $484 billion (Rs. 2,400,000 crore) by 2030 by
implementing ULSF nationwide and tightening emission standards as envisioned by the Alternate
scenario.
209. In the long-term, India stands to gain tremendously by implementing ULSF and tighter vehicle
emission standards. While the costs of these to the nation’s oil and automobile industries will
initially require significant investments, the resulting potential reduction in premature mortality
due to lower vehicular air pollution, and the corresponding monetized benefits on India’s
economy, will far outweigh the costs in the long-term. The first key step here is to implement
ULSF nationwide as soon as possible. This will enable the implementation of clean vehicle
technologies, which the Indian automobile industry has the capability to produce. On a per liter
basis, the costs of implementing ULSF are not substantial (under 50 paise* per liter). Given that
diesel and gasoline prices are around Rs. 50 and Rs. 70 per liter, respectively, adding half a rupee
to the price will not be significant. But the government of India needs to give oil companies the
flexibility to raise fuel prices to recover the investment costs needed to produce ULSF.
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4.5.10. Brazil’s effort to adopt Euro VI standards
210. The ICCT also conducted a study focusing on Brazil’s effort to keep up with the Euro VI
standard. It highlighted that Brazil may be the last major automotive market without Euro VI
equivalent standards for HDV.
211. Euro VI standards are one of the most important policy tools available to Brazil to combat
pollution and protect public health. First, most large cities in Brazil do not comply with the
air quality guidelines recommended by the World Health Organization, and Euro VI standards
would greatly contribute towards lower air pollution. Second, trucks and buses are an effective
target for emissions control as they represent less than 5% of the on-road Brazilian fleet, but
they are responsible for about 90% of pollutants (particulates and NO x) that worsen urban air
quality and negatively impact human health. Third, by moving to the Euro VI standard, with
the most stringent emission limits to date, from the P-7 standard currently in place in Brazil,
particulates and NOx emission rates will be reduced by almost 90%. Finally, Euro VI standards
are much more effective in reducing real-world emissions, and would resolve Brazil’s issues
with ARLA-32 non-compliance if well implemented.
212. Euro VI-equivalent standards are one of the most cost-effective public policies Brazil
could adopt to address air pollution and will lead to substantial societal benefits. Technology
costs of advanced emission controls would increase by less than 2%, but the economic benefits
from fewer premature deaths would outweigh those costs by a ratio of 11 to 1. Specifically,
Euro VI-equivalent standards in Brazil would prevent ~74,000 deaths and generate a net
economic benefit of $67 billion over 30 years.
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Chapter 5
Summary and Recommendation
5.3. Summary
213. Industrialization, motorization and deforestation tend to increase the intensity of air pollution
and GHGs emissions in Indonesia. With refer to the AAQMS that are managed by Government
of Indonesia (central and residency/city government) as well as AAQMS which is sited in Jakarta
City by US Embassy for instance, show us that almost all of major air pollution parameters
exceeded the standard whatever refer to WHO guideline/standard as well as national standard,
with critical parameter PM, O3 and NOx.
2001/2002 after the emerge of motor vehicle market base on economic recovery post-monetary
crisis in 1997/1998. As of end of 2020, total vehicle fleet is more than 146 million units with
total annual sales of car is ~1.1 million units, meanwhile motor cycle is ~7 million units, which
makes motor cycle to dominate the vehicle fleet (82.87%).
215. Worsening air pollution exposed the urban areas especially those which have high density of
traffic can cause illness/dieses related to people respiratory, such as asthma, acute respiratory
infection (ARI), pneumonia, bronchi-pneumonia, chronicle obstructive pulmonary dieses
(COPD), coronary artery dieses, cancer, hypertension, kidney failure, decreasing intellectual of
children, disturbing the growth brain on children, etc. Besides that, it also causes green-house gas
emissions tend to increase and affected global warming and its effect on climate change with its
problem with increasing intensity of disaster which is trigger by El Nino and La Nina phenomena,
such as land slide, flooding, storm, wider spread of certain dieses as malaria, changing of seasons
with its effect on agriculture, higher temperature with heat island, etc.
216. Imbalance of vehicle fleet composition (car, bus, truck and motor cycle), and lack on
appropriate public transportation and freight/logistic have caused 68.7 million KL/year of fuel
being wasted, (2019), as well as worsening local air pollution with total estimation emission load
39,754.51 ton/day (2019), and green-house gas (GHGs) with 255.38 M-tonsCO2e/year (2019). Of
course, it has made unhealthy air quality with its public health effects especially in urban areas. In
Jakarta for instance, people must pay IDR 51.2 T per year (2016) for medical treatment of
respiratory disease/illness related air pollution, such as acute respiratory infection, pneumonia,
bronchopneumonia, COPD, asthma, and coronary artery diseases.
217. We have the needs to design integrated, comprehensive and holistic approach to conduct
control strategy on reduction of air pollution, and green-house gas mitigation, including Carbon
dioxide capture. The control strategy is a necessity to be developed and it should cover 5 aspects
of clean fuel/energy, lower emission and efficient technology, traffic and transport management,
stringent emission standard, and effective law enforcement.
218. Clean fuel/energy aspect should be started from promote, produce and distribute appropriate
cleaner fuel that are comply with the vehicle technology requirement. The effort to improve
cleaner fuel with increasing of fuel quality was started in 1996 with the movement to phase-out
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leaded gasoline, then followed up by the government with the launched of Blue-Sky Program.
Therefore, on 29 October 1996 government reduced lead content in gasoline (Premium 88) from
2.5 gr/L to be 1.5 gr/L and promoting unleaded gasoline Super TT with 0.13 gr/L max lead
content. In that year government also introduced unleaded gasoline RON 82 for 2 stroke engine
(motor cycle and three-wheeler), also leaded gasoline with brand of Premix 91. In 2001,
government phased-out leaded gasoline in the Greater Jakarta that had around 30% market share
of gasoline in the whole country, followed up by Cirebon regency in the same year, Bali and Batam
in 2003, and national-wide in 2006. For diesel, since 2006 Pertamina introduced Perta-DEX
(Pertamina Diesel Environmental Extra). When the leaded gasoline was phased out in the Greater
Jakarta in 2001, it was followed by Java Island that lead content in Premium 88 was decreased to
be .5 gr/L, except Premium 88 was marketed in the areas as above-mentioned. In that time (2001)
the government started to introduce Pertamax 91 and Pertamax Plus 95 (both ULG with RON
91 and 95). Pertamax 91 replaced Premix 91 (LG) and Pertamax Plus replaced Super TT (ULG).
219. In 2015, Pertamina introduced Pertalite 90 and Dexlite 51. Pertalite 90 is gasoline with RON
90 and Sulfur content 200 ppm while Dexlite 51 is diesel fuel with CN 51 and Sulfur content 1200
ppm min. On August 2017, Pertamina again started to sell Pertamax HQ (6 million KL p.a.) and
Perta-DEX HQ (4.5 million KL p.a.) through Balongan Refinery, Cilacap Refinery and Balikpapan
Refinery. Pertamax HQ and Perta-DEX HQ are fuels that are comply for Euro 4/IV Standard
of motor vehicle. Pertamax HQ then the brand is changed to be Pertamax Turbo.
220. Any misleading information toward the cheapest fuel price in world, when the certain
international institution published fuel price comparison in various countries in the world without
completing it with fuel specifications. It is incomparable or disproportionate when the country
with low fuel quality is compared its fuel price with the country which has higher fuel quality. It
means that Indonesia which has lowers fuel quality, also logically means that Indonesia has lower
fuel price.
221. Beside it is needed to juxtapose fuel quality when we compare the fuel price, we must
also use COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) to make relevant comparison. So, do not use retail fuel
price at pump station, because it would create bias with refer to the different fiscal policy in the
countries. With refer to the market data as at 30 April 2020, even though Indonesia has lower fuel
quality rather than Malaysia, Australia and US, unfortunately Indonesia has the highest COGS.
Any intransparency on fuel pricing policy, where people paid too much for per liter of fuel with
lower quality rather than which it should be obtained. Intransparency could be meant any
inefficiency on production process (exploration, extractive, refinery, and distribution/retail), or
malpractice with corruption. For malpractice which tends to corrupt, it could be a conspiracy
among the parties which is involving oil trader as mastermind, including inside person(s)
involvement. It is timely and importance to reformulate fuel pricing policy in one step to
integrate reformulates fuel specification according to the vehicle technology requirement.
And it is needed to emphasize public attention against the threat of fuel quality and fairness fuel
prices, it is needed to build public participation to criticize fuel quality and fuel pricing consistently,
and sustainable; so it would be able to create fairness prices which reflected its fuel quality complies
with its technology requirement.
222. Oil multi-national companies also tend to utilize the third countries as dumping ground for
the dirty fuels which are banned by government’s regulation in the first countries in relation to
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tightening emission standard. We are concerned to the situation where the first countries which
have attention to protect their people from pollutants, but they have no solidarity to protect also
the people in the third countries such Indonesia, and neglected their oil companies exported their
dirty fuel to the third countries. To protect everyone from air pollution we must apply an
universal approach, so the approach is not aimed to protect people in certain country at
the expense of people in other countries.
223. LCEV as part of GHG mitigation must be set up through technology-mix approach;
combined with tax feebate/rebate scheme base on grCO2/km level; would be effective to result
economic benefit from fuels saving. Many technical solutions especially on the cleaner energy
option; must be taken to accelerate achievement of emission reduction. Completed policy and
regulation on air pollution control is not guarantee to be success on air pollution control, including
on road transportation sector, but needs to be accompanied by related nurturing and enforcement.
224. Blessing in disguise, Covid-19 has brought impact for better air quality, even though it is just
for short term around 10 days at the beginning social distancing on 16 March to 25 March 2020,
where air pollution tends to decrease, parameter PM2.5 for instance decreased to be at the mean
18.3 µg/m3 while at the normal situation before the pandemic is at the mean 46.1 µg/m3.
225. This study estimates that gasoline is consumed 51%, and rather diesel fuel is consumed 49% of total
fuel consumption 68,686,074.62 KL p.a. (2019). Similar with its emissions, motor cycle is the largest fuel
consumption with 37.31%, and then followed by truck with 25.74%, bus with 13.53%, gasoline car with
13.34%, diesel car with 10.08%, and three-wheeler with .01%. For gasoline, motor cycle is responsible for
73.65% of national-wide gasoline demand rather than gasoline car which has 26.33% and three-wheelers
which has .02%.
226. As part of control strategy on air pollution, and green-house gas reduction, vehicular emission is driven
to reduce through participatory integrated strategy which covers 5 (five) aspects of clean energy, aspect of
lower emission technology, aspect of land use, traffic and transport management, aspect emission standard,
and aspect law enforcement.
227. In relation to implement aspect of lower emission vehicle technology, Indonesia started to adopt Euro
Standard by adopting Euro 2/II in 2005 for new type of motor vehicle, meanwhile for current production
vehicle was adopted since 2007; both for car and motor-cycle. With regards to the strong lobby of auto-
industry, then Euro 2/II standard for HDV were rescheduled to be implemented in 2009. Then the motor-
cycle improved its standard to be Euro 3 Standard since August 2013, and gasoline car to be Euro 4/IV
Standard since October 2018 meanwhile for Euro 4/IV Standard of diesel car would be implemented by
April 2022 (delayed from the previous schedule of April 2021, one year after Covid-19 pandemic). Today,
any proposal to implement Euro 6/VI standard by 2023 with prediction to be implemented effectively on
2025.
228. The portfolio on centralizing of advance technology versus old technology of motor vehicle
have been taken and established by principals of motor vehicle manufacturer. It is addressed to
get opportunity cost, while they are still able to gain revenue and profitability from old technology
that should be stopped to be produced and marketed after endless the privilege license.
229. In relation with adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard in Indonesia, it still tends to get reluctances
from car manufacturers, even though the law for this standard has been issued and implemented.
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The reluctances are done by the lobby to continue to sell cars of Euro 2/II standard, with reason
to finish their old stocks. And then they also demolished their old factory (Euro 2/II standard)
without reinvest on new factory to produce Euro 4/IV standard. To continue to fulfill the
demand in Indonesia they just import from Thailand, with regard to market design that are
established by car manufacturers against low emission vehicle standard in Indonesia. At this stage,
Indonesia potent to loss and sacrifice it’s economic from automotive sector.
230. To prevent economic downturn on automotive sector, and to anticipate on reviving of

automotive sector, Government of Indonesia needs to focus on low emission vehicle and low
carbon emission vehicle by awakening domestic manufacturers especially electric vehicle, which
could be synergized with other new partners at national, as well as global arena. As biggest market
in South East Asia, Indonesia must be looking at with perspective for the next 5 – 10 years to gain
market leader on auto-industry sector in the region/sub region.
231. Adopting stringent emission standard in Indonesia also has obstacle on low purchasing power of motor
vehicle user. Commonly, purchasing power is depended on the GDP and GDP per capita for the people
who live in certain country. Even though today Indonesia has GDP per capita of USD 4,179.9 in 2019,
but with lack on the Gini ratio with 0.381 (2019) it has given deeper hole of obstacle. The Gini ratio with
moderate category, where 40% population with lowest income just able to access for 17.7% of total GPD;
then makes weakness on purchasing power especially in relation to buy motor vehicle with stringent
emission standard. The status of purchasing power also encourages motor vehicle manufacturers have
reluctance to adopt stringent standard which its risk sensitivity on their total selling of motor vehicle.
232. In early 2020, there was still limited number of vehicle with Euro 4/IV standard that consumed
Pertamax Turbo, although it is a good trigger to (1) enforce vehicular emission standard, (2) and increase
utilization of Pertamax Turbo not only to the Euro 4/IV standard of vehicle but also for motor vehicle
with older technology; (3) raise awareness to the motor vehicle manufacturers to have willingness on
implementing regulation respectively; (4) to lead boycott program against motor vehicle manufacturers
which has not produced and marketed yet motor vehicle follow the standard; (5) initiate mandatory
emission disclosure with its legislation for new regulation; (6) develop on line application to accommodate
public participatory to declare/up load level emission of their motor vehicle emission; (7) open discussion
and share it to the social media forum toward fact finding on motor vehicle emissions level base on its
brand.
233. Indonesia has adopted bio-fuel (blended fossil fuel with bio-ethanol and biodiesel) since 2006, and has
an effective progress since May 2015 when the government presents with new program of B15. Today,
biodiesel program is established by government to substitute imported fuels which has excess deficit on
trading balance, and makes current account deficit; by utilizing domestic product of CPO (Crudes Palm
Oil) which is processed first to be FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ether) before blended with fossil diesel fuel.
The biodiesel has been improved to be B20 since May 2016 then to be B30 since December 2019.
Pertamina just success on trial to produce more compatible engine requirement of biodiesel through its co-
processing refinery with total volume 10 KL per day. Pertamina also has plan to produce greener biodiesel
is known as D100 or HVO (hydro-treated vegetable oil) through standalone refinery by 2024, which is
utilize 100% CPO as raw material.
234. Green biodiesel which is produced by co-processing refinery is just able to blend 11.8 – 13% CPO on
its production which it’s remaining of 87 – 88.2% is fossil diesel fuel or kerosene, so it does not fulfill the
President’s mandate of B100. Another challenge for D100, a green biodiesel which is produced by
standalone refinery green biodiesel, and also co-processing refinery green biodiesel have selling price IDR
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17,000/L; meanwhile regular diesel fuel of Solar 48 is IDR 5,100/L, Perta-DEX is IDR 10,200/L, Diesel
53 S 50 max in Malaysia is ~IDR 5,500/L, and Diesel Super in Australia is ~IDR 8,800/L.
235. According to (1) oversupply of CPO product and its derivative product as impact of CPO
control, and limitation now, and banning utilization of CPO for transportation fuel in EU by 2030;
(2) the projection of imported crudes and fuels product (gasoline and diesel fuel) for Indonesia
would be increase until 2026 with 1.45 MBSD; (3) current production of CPO (2019 reach 42 –
46 MMT p.a. or equal to 800 – 900 MBSD with total utilization for FAME is around 11.5%; (4)
imported gasoline reach total 18 million KL p.a. (2018); then its emphasize government to utilize
CPO domestically to be biodiesel.
236. At technology aspect, co-processing refinery with low sulfur fossil diesel fuel or kerosene
feedstock would be a great transitional period to provide diesel fuel which is compatible to engine
requirement including Euro 4/IV standard. While, we are waiting Pertamina to finalize its
standalone refinery to produce greener diesel fuel of D100. By follow the scheme, it could avoid
the overlap and contra productive among related regulation on Vehicle Emission Standard (Euro
4/IV Standard), utilization CPO for biodiesel, and keep sustainability of fuel supply which is
compatible to the engine requirement.
237. The green diesel, green gasoline, and green AVTUR are inevitability. Even though any strong pressure
to ban CPO utilization, it could accelerate to create new innovation on optimizing utilization of CPO,
especially for domestic uses include for transportation fuel. Something importance is how to develop
guideline on CPO utilization design, production (up-stream, down-stream), agriculture on providing
feedstock; in the sustainable CPO principles following its lifecycles analysis from the up-stream, down-
stream until utilize it by the user. So, we could break the acceleration on worsening ambitious, and
aggressive policy toward CPO utilization which has tend to degrade natural forest and conservation areas
for palm oil tree farming expansion, tend to disturb regulation on vehicle emission standard, and avoid
utilization of CPO from smallholder palm oil farming caused bias on large farming interest.
238. To accelerate implementation of low emission vehicle and also ultra-low emission vehicle, it
is a necessity to design incentive/disincentive scheme that would put award/punishment to the
vehicle technology performance in relation to the emission standard, it could be implemented the
feebate/rebate scheme, and ear-mark policy in relation to implement emission excise, whatever
could be applied to control vehicle emission with local air pollution parameter, green-house
gas/fuel economy, as well as dirty fuel with its Carbon intensity.
239. Establishing a clear timeline for implementation and developing a supporting compliance
program would help ensure that the maximum benefits are achieved to reduce vehicle emissions,
gain health benefits, and fuel saving, includes a rapidly growing vehicle market. With a timeline of
2023 for implementing Euro 6/VI standards, the societal costs associated with vehicular emissions
can outweigh the costs of transitioning to advanced vehicle technology and fuel upgrades by a
ratio of 9.2:1 (5% discounted) between 2020 and 2050. This could be achieved by switching to 50
ppm sulfur imports as soon as possible and then later tightening to 10 ppm while bringing
refineries up to speed. But again, the emissions reductions and their associated improvements in
public health and climate can only be achieved with qualified fuel available for all grades of fuel
types.
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240. Due to the large share of motorcycles in the fleet and their growing contribution to air
pollution, there would also be significant benefit from prioritizing emission reductions from
motorcycles. Early adoption of Euro 5 emission standards in 2023 does not provide the same level
of emissions reduction as it does with four-wheeler vehicles, and electrification is an attractive
complementary strategy, given that motorcycles are smaller and have lower battery capacity
requirements. This analysis did not analyze the possible benefits from electrification, but future
analyses could examine the potential impacts and the costs and benefits of electrification in
combination with fleet renewal.
241. CNG/LGV manufacturing. Even though it is unbinding yet for the roadmap on ultra-low
emission vehicle and also low carbon emission vehicle, in the fact has been formulated related
agenda to mitigate emission, whatever for local air pollution emission as well as global green-house
gas from transportation sector. Many stakeholder discussions toward the issue were organized,
but the decision making is very slowly, especially formal decision of government to binding the
multi-stakeholder commitment. So, finally, each sector have taken action to achieve on lower
emission vehicle, such as research on LEV and LCEV, research and development on flexi car with
biodiesel, bioethanol fuel, CNG and LGV, research on electrified vehicle include fuel cell
generation, down-sizing program with low-cost green car (LCGC), research on main part of
electrified vehicle (EV) on battery, electric motor and PCU (Powertrain Control Unit or inverter).
242. Actually, in relation with EV manufacturing, many stakeholders intended to propose their idea
and effort to conduct research on phase 2 LCEV (Low Carbon Emission Vehicle), encourage
possibility domestic manufacturing of PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, BEV (Battery
Electric Vehicle, FC (Fuel Cell), and idea to produce the main part of EV manufacturing (PCU,
power control unit).
243. The proto-type of electrified vehicle also has been developed by several companies and
institutions such as e-bus, e-motor cycle, e-passenger car; but the companies with entrepreneurs
still are waiting and seeing the situation before they have willingness to deliver it to the mass
production, and release to the market. The most important thing is an integrated regulation is not
in place yet, especially fiscal incentive/disincentive which has the ability to trigger EV penetration
in the market, beside still unclear yet for its VIN (Vehicle Identification Number) handling.
Everything still depends on the government willingness which has not able to shift from ICE
technology.
244. Source of vehicular emission as shown total emission load 14,510,395.94 ton/year (2019) that
was emitted by motor cycle, 3-wheelers, gasoline passenger car, diesel passenger car, bus, and truck
which were driven in the road of whole- nation. The major parameters which are estimated are
CO, HC, NOx, SOx, PM10, and PM2.5 with total each of them 10,933,661.04; 1,684,352.93;
1,727,010.61; 80.87; 49,587.15; and 115,703.34. CO is the highest pollutant then followed by
NOx, HC, PM2.5, PM10 and SO2. The parameters of air pollution show that Indonesia especially
for urban areas are facing air pollution problem with its health effects for the people.
245. Based on the analysis we could conclude that any significant effect of implementation of Euro
Standard of motor vehicle. For parameter PM, it could be drop 59% by 2030 as effect of
implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 72% by
2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since
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2025. For parameter SO2, it could drop 59% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II
Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 72% by 2030 when the policy is
tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2023. For parameter
HC, it could drop 59% by 2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being
applied since 2007, then it could drop 72% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV
Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since 2023. For parameter CO, it could drop 59% by
2030 as effect of implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it
could drop 72% by 2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and
with Euro 6/VI since 2023. For parameter NOx, it could drop 59% by 2030 as effect of
implementation Euro 2/II Standard that is being applied since 2007, then it could drop 72% by
2030 when the policy is tightened with Euro 4/IV Standard since 2018, and with Euro 6/VI since
2023.
246. Base on the CBA Analysis, it shows that all of technology control strategy could be effective
to reduce emission load and emission concentration from mobile source emissions; see Chapter 4
Vehicle Emission. With refer to the calculation of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), that adopting
Euro 6/VI standard by 2025 could be gain the total benefit IDR 3,493.00 trillion by 2030 with
NPV IDR 338.79 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 337.65 trillion; even though for this
effort government needs to emphasize oil industry to invest with total IDR 926.55 trillion, as well
as auto-industry to invest on the new manufacturing of motor vehicle with IDR 540.77 trillion.
At the economic benefit, the country would be gain total economic benefit from improving public
health with total IDR 2,873.54 trillion; regarding to the vehicular emission reduction, and then it
would be a trigger for production saving with total IDR 54.72 trillion. The control strategy also
would also save the energy from fuel efficiency with total IDR 564.98 trillion or NPV IDR 293.79
trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 94.16 trillion. Other policy options which have been
analyzed on the research of CBA Analysis on Fuel Economy and Fuel Quality in Indonesia also
shows similar result on the economic benefit of Euro 2/II implementation, HEV (Hybrid
Electrified Vehicle), and Scrappage Car.
247. Tightening 2-3 Wheelers in 2013 with Euro 3 Standard, and followed up by proposal for more
stringent emission standard by 2024 also would be gain economic benefit with total IDR 3,219.83
trillion by 2030; with NPV IDR 166.97 trillion and net benefit annual average IDR 166.41 trillion,
even though it is also needed that auto-industry willing to invest on the new manufacturing of 2-
3 Wheelers with total IDR 390.92 trillion. At the economic benefit, the country would gain from
improving public health with total IDR 2,706.55 trillion; regarding to the vehicular emission
reduction, with its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 45.29 trillion, and improve
the fuel efficiency with total IDR 468.00 trillion or with NPV IDR 178.43 trillion and net benefit
annual average IDR 27.53 trillion.
248. The study also calculates the benefit of policy option of Battery Electrified Vehicle. The result
shows that the highest benefit is resulted from this BEV policy option, which gain the total
economic benefit IDR 9,603.37 trillion by 2030; with NPV IDR 3,264.40 trillion and net benefit
annual average IDR 1,415.55 trillion; of course it needs the investment from electric vehicle
industry with total IDR 1,110.06 trillion (battery industry with total IDR 387.45 trillion, and EV
industry 722.60 trillion). At the economic benefit, the country would gain from improving public
health with total IDR 3,468.27 trillion; regarding to zero mobile source of vehicular emission, with
its effect on triggering production saving with total IDR 544.78 trillion, and improve the fuel
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efficiency with total IDR 5,590.30 trillion or with NPV IDR 1,118.06 trillion and net benefit annual
average IDR 559.03 trillion.
249. It is clear that beside the vehicular emission reduction control strategy able to reduce emission,
it is also feasible with regard to its ability to create economic benefit from improving public health,
improving production saving, and increasing fuel saving. Learning from the empirical selling data,
and sharing automotive sector to GDP, it shows that innovation on advance technology is able to
improve total selling of motor vehicle which was facing the saturated market, and finally also
emphasize the total GDP. Policy reform on advance technology of motor vehicle which has
objective both to improve its performance on safety level and environmentally friendly (reduce
emission, lower noisy, and lower fuel consumption); able to improve its total selling; positive
sharing to keep GDP and creating job, trigger multiplier effect on derivative business and industry,
and increase government revenue (tax, excise, and retribution).
250. Lesson learnt from various countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, India, Brazil, UK, Chile,
Australia; shows us that control vehicular emission through implementation Euro Standard able
to reduce emissions effectively, and gain economic benefits beside its ability to keep the market
control on auto-industry by domestic manufacturers. Also with refer to CBA on this study, it
shows that all efforts in relation to tightening vehicular emission standard –Euro 2/II by
2005/2007, Euro 3 for 2-3 wheelers by 2013, simulation for Euro 4/IV by 2018 for gasoline vehicle and 2021
for diesel vehicle, and for Euro 6/VI standard by 2025– is effective to reduce emissions significantly,
and able to gain economic benefit through saving fuel, improving public health, improving
production saving, and trigger market stability, as well as its stability on GDP sharing, and
government revenues (tax, excise, retribution) from auto-industry. With regard to the various
benefits which are affected by above mentioned vehicular control strategies, it is the point of no
return to implement vehicular emission reduction on schedule as above mentioned; rather than
we will loss the economic benefit through losing of opportunity of auto-industry multiplier effect,
waste of fuels saving, worsening air pollution which has negative health effect, and production
saving. Each second the schedule delays will play the role to push downhill economy and its
multiplier effects.
5.4. Recommendation
1. Low emission vehicle, ultra-low emission vehicle, and low carbon emission vehicle is an
inevitability, so it is the time to manage the opportunity to gain triple benefit of local air
pollution reduction, GHGs mitigation as well as economic benefits by regulating and
implementing ULEV and LCEV on schedule/proposed schedule strictly.
2. Needs to create market penetration for ULEV and LCEV refer to the breakthrough that
is initiated to open opportunity, such purchasing fiscal incentive for motor vehicle with
ULEV and LCEV category complement with feebate/rebate scheme, and other
fiscal/non fiscal incentive.
3. Needs to do socio-engineering to adopt ULEV and LCEV as part of integrated emission
reduction and low carbon mobility.
4. At the national level, government should implement air quality management strictly and
consistently to control air pollution sources from various sector: transportation, industry,
mining, agriculture, land use and forestry, construction, waste management, domestic;
through reformulate stringent emission standard (tilepipe/stake, and ambient air quality
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standard), reformulate stringent motor vehicle emission standard with Euro 6/VI on
schedule and integrated with national agenda (2025).
5. Conduct mandatory disclosure for emissions (local air pollution parameter as well as green-
house gas emission), fuel economy, and conformity of production for motor vehicle to
emphasize the ULEV and LCEV product get market penetration.
6. Formulate academic paper and legal drafting on Euro 6/VI Standard with timeline to be
implemented on 2025.
7. To simplify fuels types from 8 types to be 4 types representing regular and premium quality
fuel category for both gasoline and diesel fuel. It would be easier for oil company to
distribute the fuels in the whole of islands country rather that is more complicated to
distribute 8 types of fuels. The proposed fourth types of fuels are:
a. Gasoline RON 91 (min), Sulfur 50 ppm (max), Benzene 2,5% (max), available with
brand Pertamax;
b. Gasoline RON 95 (min), Sulfur 50 ppm max, Benzene 1% (max), available now
with brand Pertamax Turbo;
c. Diesel Fuel CN 51 (min), Sulfur 300 ppm (max), PAH 10% (max), available now
with brand Perta-DEX;
d. Diesel Fuel CN 53 (min) Sulfur 50 ppm (max), PAH 10% (max), available now
with brand Perta-DEX HQ.
8. By the law to prevent health effect of air pollution, provincial and or city government have
authority to ban sales of dirty fuels that are not comply to the engine technology which
are adopted by the country.
9. Needs to enforce the law and regulation strictly, and consistently to be addressed to the
polluters include car user which has unaccomplished to the emission standard; including
emission raids (check).
10. With regards to the air pollution from the trucks, it is needed to develop green freight and
logistic application with aim to improve trucks utilization together. The application could
avoid the empty truck at the way after delivering the goods to certain place.
11. To conduct TDM (transport demand management) to shift people preference from
private motor vehicle to non-motorized mobility and mass public transport by
constructing infrastructure for ERP (electronic road pricing), pedestrian facilities, cycling
facilities, mass public transportation, and manage progressive parking tariff for certain
place with high traffic jam.
12. To conduct deeper research (tier 3) on emission load, source of apportionment air
pollution, and its health effect, in the way to identify more detail technical solution on
emission control.
13. To conduct public education to raise awareness for decision makers, related private
company, academy, civil society, influencer, general people, including millennial and post
millennial generation toward air pollution and the technical solution to reduce air pollution
regarding to the role and participation.
14. To enforce dirty oil trader which utilize Indonesia as dumping ground for dirty fuel.
15. To negotiate with related countries which export the dirty fuel that is banned to be utilized
with refer the mandate ULEV regulation; and urge them to stop exporting dirty fuel to
third countries.
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16. Binding commitment among the parties on the roadmap on Air Quality and Climate
Strategy, and adopt it as a regulation.
17. Improve nurturing --environmentally friendly process-- at all level of industrialization and
motorization as well as land use management; with strict law enforcement.
Jakarta, November 2020
91
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The RIPIN, a guiding document for Indonesia’s industry with a vision to strengthen Indonesia’s
industries based on innovation and technology, Jakarta, Ministry of Industtry, 2018.
www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/2020101351318-4-194004/wuih
93
Appendix 1
Why does the Gasoline RON 90 Not Comply to the Engine Technology?
In 2015, the Government of Indonesia through Pertamina released new branded fuel: Pertalite 90.
What does another type of gasoline after more than decades Government is laying by distributed
Premium Gasoline without premium quality? Is it rigth the periodical time to phase out Premium
Gasoline 88? Why does Government continue to distribute the fuel which is not meet to vehicle
engine requirement? We have long history where the government through Pertamina has being
distributed low quality of fuel. Before 14 years ago, government distributed the leaded gasoline which
is proven to expose people with lead pollution in the ambient, and made people especially children
were suffered by illness and diseases; beside harmful to the engine of motor vehicle. Moreover, until
2 decades ago we have dirty fuel with higher lead content in the gasoline, with 1.5 gram per liter, then
as long as implemented the Blue Sky Program the lead content was reduced gradually to be 1 gram
per liter and .5 gram per liter in 1996 and 2001, until lead free gasoline in 2001 (JABODETABEK)
and 20016 (national-wide).
Today, it is given the people also still receive low quality of fuel. People receive high sulfur content
of diesel fuel, and also low level RON (research octane number). People still receive the diesel fuel
with sulfur content more than 1200 ppm with cetane number 48, meanwhile the engine requirement
based on the regulation on vehicular emission standard is maximum 500 ppm with cetane number
minimum 51. Also, the regular gasoline still has RON 88 and 90, lower rather than engine
requirement. As we have known, that since 2007 Indonesia adopts Euro 2 Standard of Vehicle with
fuel requirement which is comply to Euro 2/II standard at least with lower sulfur content of 500 ppm
(max), also regular gasoline with RON minimum 92, and regular diesel fuel with cetane number
minimum 51.
94
Appendix 2
Table 14. Regulations Related to Air Quality in Indonesia
Legal Instruments Concerning Relevancy With Air Quality
1. General Regulations
Republic Indonesia 
Constitute 1945 Article No
28 H
UU 36/2009 toward 
Health
Human Right
Consumer Protection
Law Number 32 of 2009 Environmental Protection and  The control of environmental
Management pollution and/or damage includes;
prevention; mitigation, and recovery.
 In the context of air pollution from

mobile sources, the instruments for
the prevention of environmental
pollution and/or damage consists of
KLHS (Strategic Environmental
Assessment) to ensure that the
principle of sustainable development
has become a foundation and has
been integrated into a development
of an area and/or policies, plans,
and/or program.
Law Number 22 of 2009 Traffic and Road It should be mandatory for every motor
Transportation vehicle to meet the requirements of the
gas emission threshold and the noise
threshold as an effort to preserve the
environment.
Law Number 30 of 2007 Energy Each energy management activity must
prioritize the use of environmentally
friendly technologies and meet the
requirements stipulated by the
legislations in the environmental field.
Law Number 32 of 2004 Local Government  Each local government is required to
preserve the environment.
 The compulsory affairs that shall be

authorized by local governments
include environmental control.
95
Law Number 22 of 2001 Oil and Gas  The Government shall prioritize the
use of natural gas for domestic needs
and is responsible for providing
strategic petroleum reserves to
support the supply of domestic fuel
oil, which shall be further stipulated
by a Government Regulation.
 Fuel oil and certain processed

products marketed locally to meet
the domestic needs should meet the
quality standards set by the
Government.
2. Specific Regulation
Government Regulation Air Pollution Control Air pollution control shall include the
Number 41 of 1999 following activities:
1. Inventory of local air quality
2. Stipulation of ambient air quality
standards and emission quality
standards
3. Determination of the air quality in a
region
4. Monitoring of air quality
5. Oversight of regulatory compliance
6. Community participation
7. Policies on clean and
environmentally friendly fuels
8. Stipulation of policies
Government Regulation Motor vehicles inspection on 1. Inspection of the administrative
Number 42 of 1993 the road requirements of both drivers and
motor vehicles.
2. Inspection of the technical
requirements of motor vehicles
(including the emission test).
Presidential Regulation National Energy Policy  The realization of optimal mix energy
Number 5 of 2006 (primary) in 2025, namely each type
of energy should have a contributing
role to the national energy
consumption.
 The target of the use of biofuels is
more than 5%.
Minister of Transportation Periodic Motor Vehicle  DLLAJ as the party responsible for
Decision Number KM 71 Inspection the emission test is required to
of 1993 undertake the efforts to preserve the
environment.
 It is restricted to buses, freight cars,
trailers, semi-trailers, special vehicles
and public transport vehicles.
Minister of the Noise Threshold for New The scope of this regulation includes the
Environment Regulation Type Motor Vehicle noise threshold for new type motor
Number 07 of 2009 vehicle, the noise type test methods, and
96
the procedures for reporting noise type
test methods.
Minister of the Gas Emission Threshold for The scope of this regulation covers the
Environment Regulation New Type Motor Vehicle gas emission threshold for new type
Number 04 of 2009 motor vehicle, the gas emission type test
methods, and the procedures for
reporting gas emission type test methods.
Minister of the Gas Emission Threshold for The scope of this regulation includes the
Environment Regulation 05 Older Models Motor Vehicle gas emissions threshold, the test
of 2006 methods, the test procedures, the
evaluation, and the reporting procedures.
Minister of the The quality standards of  Dominant and critical parameters
Environment Decision stationary-sourced emission  Fuel quality
Number Kep-  Raw materials quality
13/MENLH/3/1995  Technology
Minister of the The standards of the level of  Human comfort aspect

Environment Decision statuary-sourced noise  Infrastructure safety aspect
Number Kep-  Building sustainability aspect
48/MENLH/11/1996
Environment Decision stationary-sourced vibration  Infrastructure safety aspect
49/MENLH/11/1996
Environment Decision stationary-sourced odor  Infrastructure safety aspect
50/MENLH/11/1996
Minister of the Air pollutant standard index The impacts of the level of air quality on
Environment Decision health, humans, animals, plants, buildings
Number Kep- as well as aesthetic value.
45/MENLH/…/1997
Minister of the Blue Sky Program 1. Develop a national policy on air
Environment Decision pollution control.
Number Kep- 2. Increase the capacity of local
15/MENLH/11/1996 governments on air pollution
control.
3. Improve the mechanism for the
supervision and control as well as the
prevention and recovery of air
quality.
Directorate General of Oil Standards and quality  Lead and non-lead 88 octane
and Gas Decision Number specifications of gasoline fuel gasoline.
3674 K/24/DJM/2006 marketed domestically  Only non-lead 91 octane gasoline.
 Only non lead 95 octane gasoline.
Directorate General of Oil Standards and quality  Diesel oil with 48 cetan
and Gas Decision Number specifications of diesel and maximum of 3500 ppm sulfur.
3675 K/24/DJM/2006 marketed domestically  Diesel oil with 51 cetan and
maximum of 500 ppm sulfur.
97
Directorate General of Oil
Specifications of CNG fuel gas Parameter of C1 component of 77%
and Gas Decision Number for transportation marketed volume at minimum.
247 K/10/DJM.T/2011 domestically
Directorate General of Oil
Standards and quality LPG with 98 RON or 88 MON.
and Gas Decision Number specifications of LPG fuel gas
2527.K/24/DJM/2007 for motor vehicle marketed
domestically
Minister of Energy and Natural gas utilization for fuel 
The utilization of natural gas for fuel
Mineral Resources gas used for transportation gas that can be used for
Regulation Number 19 of transportation may be in the forms of
2010 compressed natural gas (CNG) or
Liquefied Gas Vehicle.
 The utilization of natural gas for fuel
gas used for transportation referred
to in paragraph (1) shall be prioritized
for cities or districts having the
sources of natural gas.
 The transmission/
distribution channel of natural gas or
cities/districts having a high growth
rate of vehicles or a high level of gas
emissions.
Minister of Energy and The selling price of the fuel gas The fuel gas selling price used for
Mineral Resources Decision used for transportation in transportation in Jakarta, including
Number 2932 Jakarta Bogor, Bekasi, Tangerang and Depok is
K/12/MEM/2010 IDR 3,100.00 (three thousand and one
hundred rupiah) for every 1 (one) Liter
Equivalent to Premium (LSP) including
taxes.
4. Local Regulations
Local Regulation of DKI Air Pollution Control The actions to handle mobile-sourced air
Jakarta Province Number 2 pollution include the monitoring of
of 2005 compliance to the gas emission threshold,
the inspection of motor vehicle gas
emission, the maintenance of motor
vehicle gas emission, the monitoring of
ambient quality on the road, the
inspection of motor vehicle gas emission
on the road, and the provision of
environmentally friendly fuel.
Local Act of DKI Jakarta Transportation The act regulate on transportation and
No 5/2014 related issue on transportation sector
such as the energy, traffic and transport
management, road transport, railway,
water and marine transport, and air
transport. In the article also mandates to
adopt cleaner/environmental friendly
fuel such as electricity for EV, CNG, and
utilize fuels with minimum with
specification for Euro 3/II Vehicle
Standard.
98
Regulation of the Governor The use of fuel gas for public The motor vehicles required to use fuel
of DKI Jakarta Province transportation and local gas under this regulation shall include:
Number 141 of 2007 government operational 1. Local government operational
vehicles vehicles;
2. Public transportation vehicles.
Decision of the Governor Implementing Guidelines for The obligation for any motor vehicle to
of DKI Jakarta Province the Quality Standards of meet the gas emission standards.
Number 1236 of 1990 Motor Vehicle Gas Emission
within the area of DKI Jakarta
Decree of the Governor of Emission Inspection System The obligation for the inspection and
DKI Jakarta Province and Passenger Cars maintenance of private passenger cars as
Number 95 of 2000 Maintenance System a requirement for the payment of vehicle
tax.
Instruction of Governor of Emission Reduction Action With regard to the bad air quality in the
DKI Jakarta No 66/2019 long dry season of 2019, then Governor
of Jakarta instructs to conduct 7 actions:
limitation on vehicle economic life-time
(max 10 years by 2025), tightening odd-
even regulation, TDM (transport demand
management by side-walk improvement,
bike-lane and mass public transport),
strict liability to the stationary source air
pollution, adopt green building with PV
Panel, I/M (inspection and maintenance)
for motor vehicle, and afforestation.
Decree of Governor DKI Transfer Fee Exception for With refer to the Presidential Decree No
Jakarta No 3/2020 Electric Vehicle 55/2019 toward Battery Electric Vehicle
Adoption, and also Decree of Minister of
Domestic Affair toward local
government incentive for electric vehicle,
then Governor of DKI Jakarta issued
Governor Decree to release the transfer
fee of electric vehicle in DKI Jakarta.
99
Appendix 3
Air Pollutant Concentration
Graph 32. Daily average air pollutant concentration in Denpasar, Bali
Graph 33. Daily average air pollutant concentration in South Tangsel
100
Graph 34. Daily average air pollutant concentration in Medan
Graph 35. Daily average air pollutant concentration in Surabaya
101
Appendix 4
Table 15. Emission Factor Refer to the Minister of Environment Decree No 12/2010
Parameter
Vehicle Type
CO HC NOX PM10 CO2 SO2
Motor Cycle 14 5.9 0.29 0.24 3180 0.008
Car Gasoline 40 4 2 0.01 3180 0.026
Car Diesel 2.8 0.2 3.5 0.53 3172 0.44
SUV 32.4 3.2 2.3 0.12 3172 0.11
Bus 11 1.3 11.9 1.4 3172 0.93
Truck 8.4 1.8 17.7 1.4 3172 0.82
Table 16. Emission Factor of Gasoline Vehicle Refer to ECE

Particular Parameter
Car Gasoline CO HC NOX PM2.5
Pre Euro Standard 37.3 2.8 2.53 0.0022
Euro 1/I 3.92 0.53 0.485 0.0022
Euro 2/II 2.04 0.251 0.255 0.0022
Euro 3/III 1.82 0.119 0.097 0.0011
Euro 4/IV 0.62 0.065 0.081 0.0011
Euro 5/V 0.62 0.065 0.061 0.001
Euro 6/VI 0.52 0.055 0.061 0.001
Source: Leonidas Ntziachristos, Zissis Samaras, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019.
Table 17. Emission Factor of Diesel Vehicle Refer to ECE

Car Diesel CO HC NOX PM2.5
Conventional 0.688 0.159 0.546 0.229
Euro 1/I 0.414 0.047 0.69 0.0842
Euro 2/II 0.296 0.035 0.716 0.0548
Euro 3/III 0.089 0.02 0.773 0.0391
Euro 4/IV 0.092 0.014 0.58 0.0314
Euro 5/V 0.04 0.008 0.55 0.021
Euro 6/VI 0.049 0.008 0.17 0.015
102
Table 18. Emission Factor of Truck HDV Refer to ECE
Truck Heavy Duty Diesel CO HC NOX PM2.5
Conventional 4.5 0.776 8.92 0.3344
Euro 1/I 4.5 0.326 5.31 0.201
Euro 2/II 4 0.207 5.5 0.104
Euro 3/III 2.1 0.189 4.3 0.0881
Euro 4/IV 1.5 0.08 2.65 0.0161
Euro 5/V 0.15 0.008 1.51 0.0161
Euro 6/VI 0.15 0.008 0.291 0.0008
Table 19. Emission Factor of Bus HDV Refer to ECE

Bus Heavy Duty Diesel CO HC NOX PM2.5
Conventional 5.71 1.99 16.5 0.909
Euro 1/I 4.5 0.706 10.1 0.479
Euro 2/II 4 0.463 10.7 0.22
Euro 3/III 2.67 0.409 9.38 0.207
Euro 4/IV 1.5 0.22 5.42 0.0462
Euro 5/IV 0.223 0.022 3.09 0.0462
Euro 6/VI 0.223 0.013 0.597 0.0023
Source: Leonidas Ntziachristos, Zissis Samaras, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019
103
Table 20. Emission Factor for Motor Cycle Euro Emission Standard
CO HC NOx PM10 PM2.5 CO2
Motor Cycle Standard >=130 <130 >=130 <130 >=130 <130 All All
Idle >40
Idle kph kph idle kph mph idle kph mph Speed Speed
Pre-Euro 2-S 22.00 18.20 18.20 10.10 4.80 4.80 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.072 0.168 48.2 55
Pre-Euro 4-S 23.90 21.70 21.70 3.10 1.60 1.60 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.0042 0.0098 65 56.6
Euro 2 <150 cc 5.50 7.21 7.21 1.20 0.50 1.13 0.30 0.44 0.34 0.0015 0.0035 71.99 82.15
Euro 2 >=150 cc 5.50 7.21 7.21 1.00 0.41 0.63 0.30 0.44 0.34 0.0015 0.0035 71.99 82.15
Euro 2 <150 cc Cetus Api 7.00 9.17 9.17 1.50 0.62 1.50 0.40 0.59 0.45 0.0015 0.0035 71.99 82.15
Euro 2 >=150 cc Compression 2.00 2.62 2.62 1.00 0.41 1.00 0.65 0.95 0.74 0.0015 0.0035 71.99 82.15
Euro 3 <150 cc 2.00 2.62 2.62 0.80 0.33 0.75 0.15 0.22 0.17 0.0015 0.0036 59.39 67.77
Euro 3 >=150 cc 2.00 2.62 2.62 0.30 0.33 0.75 0.15 0.22 0.17 0.0015 0.0036 59.39 67.77
Source: Minister Environment Decree No 10/2012 Vehicle Emission Standard for L Category; Leonidas Ntziachristos, Zissis Samaras, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory
guidebook 2019; and Giorgio Zamboni, On the Definition of Two Wheelers Exhaust Emission Factors.
104
Table 21. European Union: emission standards for passenger cars (ECE + EUDC chassis dynamometer test)
Category M1 vehicles. For Euro 1 through 4, vehicles greater than 2,500 kg were type approved
as Category N1 vehicles
(a) Sep 2010 for all M and N vehicle weight categories
(b) NMHC limit = 0.068 g/km
(c) applicable only to vehicles with DI engines
(d) 0.0045 g/km using the PMP measurement procedure
(e) After Sept 30 1999, vehicles with DI engines had to meet the IDI limits
105
Table 22. Tier 1 Standard. LDV Emission Standard (FTP-75 Chassis
Dynamometer Test.. Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100 -120,000 miles)
Table 23. NLEV Standards. LDV Emission Standards (FTP-75 Chassis

Dynamometer Test) Emission Limit at Full Useful Life (100,000 miles)
106
Table 24. Tier 2 Standards. LDV Emission Standards (FTP-75 Chassis Dynamometer Test) Emission
Limit at Full Useful Life (100,000 – 120,000 miles miles)
Francisco Posada Sanchez, Anup Bandivadekar, John German, 2012, Estimated Cost of Emission
Source:
Reduction Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles, San Francisco, ICCT.
Table.Table
US Standard. Tier 1 standards.
25. US Standard. Light-duty
Tier 1 Standard. LDV vehicle emission
Emission standards
Standards (FTP-75 Chassis
Dynamometer
(FTP-75 chassis Test). test).
dynamometer Emission Limitlimits
Emission at Full
at Useful Lifelife
full useful (100 -120,000 miles)
(100–120,000 miles)
107
108
Appendix 5
Table 26. Estimation Emission Load – Motor Cycle, Passenger Car, Bus, and Truck, 1999 – 2030
Motor Cycle
Year Vehicle Fleet CO HC NOx SOx PM10 PM2.5
1999 13,443,070 1,957,781.46 314,030.11 10,794.78 1.59 3,738.92 8,724.15
2000 14,423,425 2,100,555.49 336,931.21 11,582.01 1.71 4,011.59 9,360.37
2001 16,064,827 2,339,601.04 375,274.35 12,900.06 1.90 4,468.11 10,425.59
2002 18,380,224 2,676,803.97 429,362.04 14,759.32 2.18 5,112.09 11,928.21
2003 21,192,385 3,086,353.00 495,054.11 17,017.49 2.51 5,894.24 13,753.22
2004 25,087,491 3,653,616.74 586,043.79 20,145.26 2.97 6,977.58 16,281.03
2005 30,199,762 4,398,142.33 705,466.44 24,250.41 3.58 8,399.46 19,598.74
2006 34,553,592 5,032,212.32 807,171.90 27,746.53 4.09 9,610.39 22,424.24
2007 39,265,097 5,280,021.02 845,865.14 39,440.49 4.65 9,661.98 22,544.62
2008 45,532,772 5,609,678.77 897,338.42 54,996.86 5.39 9,730.61 22,704.76
2009 51,409,133 5,918,754.80 945,598.03 69,581.99 6.09 9,794.96 22,854.90
2010 59,711,103 6,355,409.36 1,013,777.96 90,187.48 7.07 9,885.87 23,067.02
2011 67,451,537 6,762,529.09 1,077,346.28 109,399.23 7.99 9,970.62 23,264.79
2012 74,970,939 7,158,023.31 1,139,099.36 128,062.39 8.88 10,052.96 23,456.91
2013 83,301,578 7,596,185.76 1,207,514.74 148,739.04 9.87 10,144.18 23,669.76
2014 89,139,280 7,707,837.66 1,239,476.16 155,983.62 10.56 10,209.85 23,822.98
2015 94,368,484 7,807,851.42 1,268,106.05 162,473.07 11.18 10,268.67 23,960.22
2016 101,296,820 7,940,362.77 1,306,038.69 171,071.13 12.00 10,346.60 24,142.07
2017 107,570,528 8,060,353.71 1,340,387.24 178,856.80 12.74 10,417.17 24,306.73
2018 114,567,916 8,194,185.76 1,378,697.94 187,540.56 13.57 10,495.88 24,490.39
2019 121,851,339 8,333,488.50 1,418,574.68 196,579.29 14.43 10,577.81 24,681.55
2020 129,863,104 8,486,721.51 1,462,439.09 206,521.89 15.38 10,667.93 24,891.84
2021 138,676,045 8,655,277.83 1,510,689.94 217,458.75 16.42 10,767.06 25,123.14
2022 148,370,280 8,840,689.77 1,563,765.88 229,489.30 17.57 10,876.11 25,377.58
2023 159,033,939 9,044,642.92 1,622,149.42 242,722.90 18.84 10,996.06 25,657.47
2024 170,763,964 7,417,856.58 1,664,964.01 256,423.57 0.56 11,081.69 25,857.27
2025 183,666,992 7,559,144.73 1,712,060.06 271,494.30 0.61 11,175.88 26,077.05
2026 197,860,322 7,714,561.69 1,763,865.71 288,072.11 0.65 11,279.49 26,318.81
2027 213,472,985 7,885,520.36 1,820,851.93 306,307.70 0.71 11,393.46 26,584.75
2028 230,646,915 8,073,574.88 1,883,536.78 326,366.85 0.76 11,518.83 26,877.28
2029 249,538,237 8,280,434.86 1,952,490.10 348,431.92 0.82 11,656.74 27,199.06
2030 270,318,692 8,507,980.84 2,028,338.76 372,703.49 0.89 11,808.44 27,553.02
BAU 1999
1999 13,443,070 1,957,781.46 314,030.11 10,794.78 1.59 3,738.92 8,724.15
2000 14,423,425 2,100,555.49 336,931.21 11,582.01 1.71 4,011.59 9,360.37
2001 16,064,827 2,339,601.04 375,274.35 12,900.06 1.90 4,468.11 10,425.59
2002 18,380,224 2,676,803.97 429,362.04 14,759.32 2.18 5,112.09 11,928.21
2003 21,192,385 3,086,353.00 495,054.11 17,017.49 2.51 5,894.24 13,753.22
2004 25,087,491 3,653,616.74 586,043.79 20,145.26 2.97 6,977.58 16,281.03
2005 30,199,762 4,398,142.33 705,466.44 24,250.41 3.58 8,399.46 19,598.74
2006 34,553,592 5,032,212.32 807,171.90 27,746.53 4.09 9,610.39 22,424.24
2007 39,265,097 5,718,372.41 917,232.67 31,529.87 4.65 10,920.80 25,481.87
2008 45,532,772 6,631,165.23 1,063,645.55 36,562.82 5.39 12,664.03 29,549.40
2009 51,409,133 7,486,969.09 1,200,917.35 41,281.53 6.09 14,298.42 33,362.99
2010 59,711,103 8,696,026.48 1,394,851.37 47,948.02 7.07 16,607.45 38,750.71
2011 67,451,537 9,823,304.56 1,575,667.90 54,163.58 7.99 18,760.30 43,774.02
2012 74,970,939 10,918,392.66 1,751,321.13 60,201.66 8.88 20,851.67 48,653.89
2013 83,301,578 12,131,625.26 1,945,924.85 66,891.17 9.87 23,168.67 54,060.22
2014 89,139,280 12,981,799.04 2,082,293.58 71,578.84 10.56 24,792.31 57,848.72
2015 94,368,484 13,743,354.19 2,204,447.79 75,777.89 11.18 26,246.71 61,242.32
2016 101,296,820 14,752,362.42 2,366,293.72 81,341.35 12.00 28,173.68 65,738.60
2017 107,570,528 15,666,033.86 2,512,847.54 86,379.13 12.74 29,918.59 69,810.05
2018 114,567,916 16,685,098.48 2,676,306.52 91,998.04 13.57 31,864.77 74,351.14
2019 121,851,339 17,745,819.73 2,846,447.27 97,846.63 14.43 33,890.51 79,077.86
2020 129,863,104 18,912,613.10 3,033,602.10 104,280.07 15.38 36,118.83 84,277.26
2021 138,676,045 20,196,085.81 3,239,472.41 111,356.86 16.42 38,569.97 89,996.59
2022 148,370,280 21,607,905.79 3,465,929.75 119,141.34 17.57 41,266.23 96,287.86
2023 159,033,939 23,160,907.77 3,715,032.83 127,704.25 18.84 44,232.11 103,208.26
2024 170,763,964 24,869,209.95 3,989,046.21 137,123.46 20.22 47,494.58 110,820.69
2025 183,666,992 26,748,342.35 4,290,460.93 147,484.59 21.75 51,083.30 119,194.37
2026 197,860,322 28,815,387.98 4,622,017.12 158,881.84 23.43 55,030.89 128,405.41
2027 213,472,985 31,089,138.18 4,986,728.93 171,418.81 25.28 59,373.24 138,537.56
2028 230,646,915 33,590,263.40 5,387,911.92 185,209.47 27.32 64,149.83 149,682.93
2029 249,538,237 36,341,501.14 5,829,213.22 200,379.20 29.55 69,404.07 161,942.83
2030 270,318,692 39,367,862.66 6,314,644.64 217,065.91 32.02 75,183.74 175,428.72
109
Just Euro 3
1999 13,443,070 1,957,781.46 314,030.11 10,794.78 1.59 3,738.92 8,724.15
2000 14,423,425 2,100,555.49 336,931.21 11,582.01 1.71 4,011.59 9,360.37
2001 16,064,827 2,339,601.04 375,274.35 12,900.06 1.90 4,468.11 10,425.59
2002 18,380,224 2,676,803.97 429,362.04 14,759.32 2.18 5,112.09 11,928.21
2003 21,192,385 3,086,353.00 495,054.11 17,017.49 2.51 5,894.24 13,753.22
2004 25,087,491 3,653,616.74 586,043.79 20,145.26 2.97 6,977.58 16,281.03
2005 30,199,762 4,398,142.33 705,466.44 24,250.41 3.58 8,399.46 19,598.74
2006 34,553,592 5,032,212.32 807,171.90 27,746.53 4.09 9,610.39 22,424.24
2007 39,265,097 5,280,021.02 845,865.14 39,440.49 4.65 9,661.98 22,544.62
2008 45,532,772 5,609,678.77 897,338.42 54,996.86 5.39 9,730.61 22,704.76
2009 51,409,133 5,918,754.80 945,598.03 69,581.99 6.09 9,794.96 22,854.90
2010 59,711,103 6,355,409.36 1,013,777.96 90,187.48 7.07 9,885.87 23,067.02
2011 67,451,537 6,762,529.09 1,077,346.28 109,399.23 7.99 9,970.62 23,264.79
2012 74,970,939 7,158,023.31 1,139,099.36 128,062.39 8.88 10,052.96 23,456.91
2013 83,301,578 7,596,185.76 1,207,514.74 148,739.04 9.87 10,144.18 23,669.76
2014 89,139,280 7,707,837.66 1,239,476.16 155,983.62 10.56 10,209.85 23,822.98
2015 94,368,484 7,807,851.42 1,268,106.05 162,473.07 11.18 10,268.67 23,960.22
2016 101,296,820 7,940,362.77 1,306,038.69 171,071.13 12.00 10,346.60 24,142.07
2017 107,570,528 8,060,353.71 1,340,387.24 178,856.80 12.74 10,417.17 24,306.73
2018 114,567,916 8,194,185.76 1,378,697.94 187,540.56 13.57 10,495.88 24,490.39
2019 121,851,339 8,333,488.50 1,418,574.68 196,579.29 14.43 10,577.81 24,681.55
2020 129,863,104 8,486,721.51 1,462,439.09 206,521.89 15.38 10,667.93 24,891.84
2021 138,676,045 8,655,277.83 1,510,689.94 217,458.75 16.42 10,767.06 25,123.14
2022 148,370,280 8,840,689.77 1,563,765.88 229,489.30 17.57 10,876.11 25,377.58
2023 159,033,939 9,044,642.92 1,622,149.42 242,722.90 18.84 10,996.06 25,657.47
2024 170,763,964 9,268,991.37 1,686,371.30 257,279.86 20.22 11,128.00 25,965.34
2025 183,666,992 9,515,774.68 1,757,015.38 273,292.51 21.75 11,273.14 26,304.00
2026 197,860,322 9,787,236.31 1,834,723.86 290,906.44 23.43 11,432.80 26,676.53
2027 213,472,985 10,085,844.10 1,920,203.19 310,281.75 25.28 11,608.42 27,086.31
2028 230,646,915 10,414,312.68 2,014,230.46 331,594.60 27.32 11,801.60 27,537.06
2029 249,538,237 10,775,628.11 2,117,660.45 355,038.73 29.55 12,014.10 28,032.90
2030 270,318,692 11,173,075.09 2,231,433.44 380,827.27 32.02 12,247.85 28,578.31
Just Euro 2
1999 13,443,070 1,957,781.46 314,030.11 10,794.78 1.59 3,738.92 8,724.15
2000 14,423,425 2,100,555.49 336,931.21 11,582.01 1.71 4,011.59 9,360.37
2001 16,064,827 2,339,601.04 375,274.35 12,900.06 1.90 4,468.11 10,425.59
2002 18,380,224 2,676,803.97 429,362.04 14,759.32 2.18 5,112.09 11,928.21
2003 21,192,385 3,086,353.00 495,054.11 17,017.49 2.51 5,894.24 13,753.22
2004 25,087,491 3,653,616.74 586,043.79 20,145.26 2.97 6,977.58 16,281.03
2005 30,199,762 4,398,142.33 705,466.44 24,250.41 3.58 8,399.46 19,598.74
2006 34,553,592 5,032,212.32 807,171.90 27,746.53 4.09 9,610.39 22,424.24
2007 39,265,097 5,280,021.02 845,865.14 39,440.49 4.65 9,661.98 22,544.62
2008 45,532,772 5,609,678.77 897,338.42 54,996.86 5.39 9,730.61 22,704.76
2009 51,409,133 5,918,754.80 945,598.03 69,581.99 6.09 9,794.96 22,854.90
2010 59,711,103 6,355,409.36 1,013,777.96 90,187.48 7.07 9,885.87 23,067.02
2011 67,451,537 6,762,529.09 1,077,346.28 109,399.23 7.99 9,970.62 23,264.79
2012 74,970,939 7,158,023.31 1,139,099.36 128,062.39 8.88 10,052.96 23,456.91
2013 83,301,578 7,596,185.76 1,207,514.74 148,739.04 9.87 10,144.18 23,669.76
2014 89,139,280 7,903,228.48 1,255,456.87 163,228.21 10.56 10,208.10 23,818.91
2015 94,368,484 8,178,266.31 1,298,401.71 176,207.10 11.18 10,265.36 23,952.51
2016 101,296,820 8,542,672.54 1,355,300.67 193,403.23 12.00 10,341.23 24,129.53
2017 107,570,528 8,872,647.62 1,406,823.49 208,974.57 12.74 10,409.93 24,289.83
2018 114,567,916 9,240,685.74 1,464,289.54 226,342.09 13.57 10,486.55 24,468.61
2019 121,851,339 9,623,768.28 1,524,104.65 244,419.54 14.43 10,566.30 24,654.70
2020 129,863,104 10,045,159.07 1,589,901.27 264,304.74 15.38 10,654.03 24,859.40
2021 138,676,045 10,508,688.94 1,662,277.55 286,178.46 16.42 10,750.53 25,084.57
2022 148,370,280 11,018,571.79 1,741,891.46 310,239.56 17.57 10,856.68 25,332.26
2023 159,033,939 11,579,442.93 1,829,466.76 336,706.76 18.84 10,973.45 25,604.72
2024 170,763,964 12,196,401.19 1,925,799.59 365,820.68 20.22 11,101.89 25,904.42
2025 183,666,992 12,875,055.27 2,031,765.70 397,845.99 21.75 11,243.18 26,234.09
2026 197,860,322 13,621,574.76 2,148,328.42 433,073.84 23.43 11,398.60 26,596.73
2027 213,472,985 14,442,746.20 2,276,547.42 471,824.47 25.28 11,569.56 26,995.63
2028 230,646,915 15,346,034.78 2,417,588.32 514,450.16 27.32 11,757.61 27,434.43
2029 249,538,237 16,339,652.22 2,572,733.30 561,338.42 29.55 11,964.47 27,917.10
2030 270,318,692 17,432,631.40 2,743,392.78 612,915.51 32.02 12,192.02 28,448.04
110
Just Euro 3++ (RI Standard 2024)
1999 13,443,070 1,957,781.46 314,030.11 10,794.78 1.59 3,738.92 8,724.15
2000 14,423,425 2,100,555.49 336,931.21 11,582.01 1.71 4,011.59 9,360.37
2001 16,064,827 2,339,601.04 375,274.35 12,900.06 1.90 4,468.11 10,425.59
2002 18,380,224 2,676,803.97 429,362.04 14,759.32 2.18 5,112.09 11,928.21
2003 21,192,385 3,086,353.00 495,054.11 17,017.49 2.51 5,894.24 13,753.22
2004 25,087,491 3,653,616.74 586,043.79 20,145.26 2.97 6,977.58 16,281.03
2005 30,199,762 4,398,142.33 705,466.44 24,250.41 3.58 8,399.46 19,598.74
2006 34,553,592 5,032,212.32 807,171.90 27,746.53 4.09 9,610.39 22,424.24
2007 39,265,097 5,280,021.02 845,865.14 39,440.49 4.65 9,601.87 22,404.36
2008 45,532,772 5,609,678.77 897,338.42 54,996.86 5.39 9,670.50 22,564.50
2009 51,409,133 5,918,754.80 945,598.03 69,581.99 6.09 9,734.85 22,714.64
2010 59,711,103 6,355,409.36 1,013,777.96 90,187.48 7.07 9,825.75 22,926.76
2011 67,451,537 6,762,529.09 1,077,346.28 109,399.23 7.99 9,910.51 23,124.53
2012 74,970,939 7,158,023.31 1,139,099.36 128,062.39 8.88 9,992.85 23,316.65
2013 83,301,578 7,596,185.76 1,207,514.74 148,739.04 9.87 10,084.07 23,529.50
2014 89,139,280 7,707,837.66 1,239,476.16 155,983.62 10.56 10,209.85 23,822.98
2015 94,368,484 7,807,851.42 1,268,106.05 162,473.07 11.18 10,268.67 23,960.22
2016 101,296,820 7,940,362.77 1,306,038.69 171,071.13 12.00 10,346.60 24,142.07
2017 107,570,528 8,060,353.71 1,340,387.24 178,856.80 12.74 10,417.17 24,306.73
2018 114,567,916 8,194,185.76 1,378,697.94 187,540.56 13.57 10,495.88 24,490.39
2019 121,851,339 8,333,488.50 1,418,574.68 196,579.29 14.43 10,577.81 24,681.55
2020 129,863,104 8,486,721.51 1,462,439.09 206,521.89 15.38 10,667.93 24,891.84
2021 138,676,045 8,655,277.83 1,510,689.94 217,458.75 16.42 10,767.06 25,123.14
2022 148,370,280 8,840,689.77 1,563,765.88 229,489.30 17.57 10,876.11 25,377.58
2023 159,033,939 9,044,642.92 1,622,149.42 242,722.90 18.84 10,996.06 25,657.47
2024 170,763,964 7,417,856.58 1,664,964.01 256,423.57 0.56 11,081.69 25,857.27
2025 183,666,992 7,559,144.73 1,712,060.06 271,494.30 0.61 11,175.88 26,077.05
2026 197,860,322 7,714,561.69 1,763,865.71 288,072.11 0.65 11,279.49 26,318.81
2027 213,472,985 7,885,520.36 1,820,851.93 306,307.70 0.71 11,393.46 26,584.75
2028 230,646,915 8,073,574.88 1,883,536.78 326,366.85 0.76 11,518.83 26,877.28
2029 249,538,237 8,280,434.86 1,952,490.10 348,431.92 0.82 11,656.74 27,199.06
2030 270,318,692 8,507,980.84 2,028,338.76 372,703.49 0.89 11,808.44 27,553.02
Gasoline Passenger Car

1999 1,563,277 684,715.36 68,471.54 34,235.77 0.76 51.35 119.83
2000 1,639,252 717,992.35 71,799.23 35,899.62 0.80 53.85 125.65
2001 1,720,251 753,470.03 75,347.00 37,673.50 0.84 56.51 131.86
2002 1,835,675 804,025.80 80,402.58 40,201.29 0.90 60.30 140.70
2003 2,095,648 917,893.83 91,789.38 45,894.69 1.02 68.84 160.63
2004 2,408,158 1,054,773.37 105,477.34 52,738.67 1.18 79.11 184.59
2005 2,802,054 1,227,299.75 122,729.97 61,364.99 1.37 92.05 214.78
2006 3,179,621 1,392,674.19 139,267.42 69,633.71 1.55 104.45 243.72
2007 3,855,793 1,407,778.51 141,125.84 71,521.75 1.88 109.34 255.12
2008 4,067,699 1,412,512.07 141,708.26 72,113.44 1.99 110.87 258.69
2009 4,588,628 1,424,148.57 143,140.00 73,568.01 2.24 114.63 267.48
2010 5,116,381 1,435,937.52 144,590.51 75,041.63 2.50 118.45 276.38
2011 5,616,674 1,447,113.07 145,965.54 76,438.57 2.74 122.06 284.81
2012 6,091,095 1,457,710.68 147,269.46 77,763.27 2.98 125.49 292.81
2013 6,550,171 1,467,965.51 148,531.20 79,045.13 3.20 128.81 300.56
2014 6,994,537 1,477,891.77 149,752.52 80,285.91 3.42 132.02 308.05
2015 7,341,494 1,485,642.09 150,706.12 81,254.70 3.59 134.53 313.90
2016 7,836,447 1,496,698.35 152,066.47 82,636.73 3.83 138.11 322.25
2017 8,233,591 1,505,569.76 153,158.00 83,745.66 4.02 140.98 328.94
2018 8,674,224 1,515,412.62 154,369.06 84,976.01 4.24 144.16 336.37
2019 9,064,929 1,518,065.12 154,647.14 85,322.55 0.62 145.57 339.67
2020 9,494,704 1,520,982.86 154,953.04 85,703.74 0.65 147.12 343.29
2021 9,967,457 1,524,192.38 155,289.52 86,123.05 0.68 148.83 347.28
2022 10,487,486 1,527,722.85 155,659.65 86,584.29 0.71 150.71 351.66
2023 11,059,517 1,531,606.37 156,066.79 87,091.65 0.75 152.78 356.49
2024 11,688,751 1,535,878.24 156,514.65 87,649.75 0.80 155.05 361.79
2025 12,380,908 1,539,819.39 156,931.50 88,112.07 0.17 157.33 367.10
2026 13,142,282 1,544,154.65 157,390.04 88,620.63 0.18 159.83 372.93
2027 13,979,792 1,548,923.43 157,894.43 89,180.05 0.19 162.58 379.35
2028 14,901,054 1,554,169.10 158,449.26 89,795.41 0.20 165.61 386.41
2029 15,914,442 1,559,939.33 159,059.57 90,472.30 0.22 168.93 394.18
2030 17,029,169 1,566,286.58 159,730.92 91,216.88 0.23 172.60 402.72
111
BAU 1999
1999 1,563,277 684,715.36 68,471.54 34,235.77 0.76 51.35 119.83
2000 1,639,252 717,992.35 71,799.23 35,899.62 0.80 53.85 125.65
2001 1,720,251 753,470.03 75,347.00 37,673.50 0.84 56.51 131.86
2002 1,835,675 804,025.80 80,402.58 40,201.29 0.90 60.30 140.70
2003 2,095,648 917,893.83 91,789.38 45,894.69 1.02 68.84 160.63
2004 2,408,158 1,054,773.37 105,477.34 52,738.67 1.18 79.11 184.59
2005 2,802,054 1,227,299.75 122,729.97 61,364.99 1.37 92.05 214.78
2006 3,179,621 1,392,674.19 139,267.42 69,633.71 1.55 104.45 243.72
2007 3,855,793 1,688,837.33 168,883.73 84,441.87 1.88 126.66 295.55
2008 4,067,699 1,781,652.28 178,165.23 89,082.61 1.99 133.62 311.79
2009 4,588,628 2,009,819.00 200,981.90 100,490.95 2.24 150.74 351.72
2010 5,116,381 2,240,974.92 224,097.49 112,048.75 2.50 168.07 392.17
2011 5,616,674 2,460,103.28 246,010.33 123,005.16 2.74 184.51 430.52
2012 6,091,095 2,667,899.48 266,789.95 133,394.97 2.98 200.09 466.88
2013 6,550,171 2,868,974.71 286,897.47 143,448.74 3.20 215.17 502.07
2014 6,994,537 3,063,607.23 306,360.72 153,180.36 3.42 229.77 536.13
2015 7,341,494 3,215,574.15 321,557.42 160,778.71 3.59 241.17 562.73
2016 7,836,447 3,432,363.59 343,236.36 171,618.18 3.83 257.43 600.66
2017 8,233,591 3,606,312.94 360,631.29 180,315.65 4.02 270.47 631.10
2018 8,674,224 3,799,310.16 379,931.02 189,965.51 4.24 284.95 664.88
2019 9,064,929 3,970,438.91 397,043.89 198,521.95 4.43 297.78 694.83
2020 9,494,704 4,158,680.54 415,868.05 207,934.03 4.64 311.90 727.77
2021 9,967,457 4,365,746.33 436,574.63 218,287.32 4.87 327.43 764.01
2022 10,487,486 4,593,518.70 459,351.87 229,675.93 5.12 344.51 803.87
2023 11,059,517 4,844,068.30 484,406.83 242,203.42 5.40 363.31 847.71
2024 11,688,751 5,119,672.87 511,967.29 255,983.64 5.71 383.98 895.94
2025 12,380,908 5,422,837.89 542,283.79 271,141.89 6.05 406.71 949.00
2026 13,142,282 5,756,319.42 575,631.94 287,815.97 6.42 431.72 1,007.36
2027 13,979,792 6,123,149.10 612,314.91 306,157.45 6.83 459.24 1,071.55
2028 14,901,054 6,526,661.74 652,666.17 326,333.09 7.28 489.50 1,142.17
2029 15,914,442 6,970,525.65 697,052.57 348,526.28 7.78 522.79 1,219.84
2030 17,029,169 7,458,775.96 745,877.60 372,938.80 8.32 559.41 1,305.29
18,255,368
Just Euro 2
1999 1,563,277 684,715.36 68,471.54 34,235.77 0.76 51.35 119.83
2000 1,639,252 717,992.35 71,799.23 35,899.62 0.80 53.85 125.65
2001 1,720,251 753,470.03 75,347.00 37,673.50 0.84 56.51 131.86
2002 1,835,675 804,025.80 80,402.58 40,201.29 0.90 60.30 140.70
2003 2,095,648 917,893.83 91,789.38 45,894.69 1.02 68.84 160.63
2004 2,408,158 1,054,773.37 105,477.34 52,738.67 1.18 79.11 184.59
2005 2,802,054 1,227,299.75 122,729.97 61,364.99 1.37 92.05 214.78
2006 3,179,621 1,392,674.19 139,267.42 69,633.71 1.55 104.45 243.72
2007 3,855,793 1,407,778.51 141,125.84 71,521.75 1.88 109.34 255.12
2008 4,067,699 1,412,512.07 141,708.26 72,113.44 1.99 110.87 258.69
2009 4,588,628 1,424,148.57 143,140.00 73,568.01 2.24 114.63 267.48
2010 5,116,381 1,435,937.52 144,590.51 75,041.63 2.50 118.45 276.38
2011 5,616,674 1,447,113.07 145,965.54 76,438.57 2.74 122.06 284.81
2012 6,091,095 1,457,710.68 147,269.46 77,763.27 2.98 125.49 292.81
2013 6,550,171 1,467,965.51 148,531.20 79,045.13 3.20 128.81 300.56
2014 6,994,537 1,477,891.77 149,752.52 80,285.91 3.42 132.02 308.05
2015 7,341,494 1,485,642.09 150,706.12 81,254.70 3.59 134.53 313.90
2016 7,836,447 1,496,698.35 152,066.47 82,636.73 3.83 138.11 322.25
2017 8,233,591 1,505,569.76 153,158.00 83,745.66 4.02 140.98 328.94
2018 8,674,224 1,515,412.62 154,369.06 84,976.01 4.24 144.16 336.37
2019 9,064,929 1,524,140.19 155,442.89 86,066.96 4.43 146.98 342.96
2020 9,494,704 1,533,740.51 156,624.11 87,267.00 4.64 150.09 350.21
2021 9,967,457 1,544,300.87 157,923.45 88,587.04 4.87 153.51 358.18
2022 10,487,486 1,555,917.26 159,352.72 90,039.09 5.12 157.26 366.95
2023 11,059,517 1,568,695.29 160,924.92 91,636.35 5.40 161.40 376.60
2024 11,688,751 1,582,751.12 162,654.34 93,393.33 5.71 165.95 387.21
2025 12,380,908 1,598,212.54 164,556.70 95,326.00 6.05 170.95 398.88
2026 13,142,282 1,615,220.09 166,649.29 97,451.95 6.42 176.45 411.72
2027 13,979,792 1,633,928.41 168,951.15 99,790.49 6.83 182.50 425.84
2028 14,901,054 1,654,507.55 171,483.19 102,362.88 7.28 189.16 441.38
2029 15,914,442 1,677,144.61 174,268.44 105,192.51 7.78 196.49 458.47
2030 17,029,169 1,702,045.38 177,332.21 108,305.11 8.32 204.54 477.26
112
Just Euro 4
1999 1,563,277 684,715.36 68,471.54 34,235.77 0.76 51.35 119.83
2000 1,639,252 717,992.35 71,799.23 35,899.62 0.80 53.85 125.65
2001 1,720,251 753,470.03 75,347.00 37,673.50 0.84 56.51 131.86
2002 1,835,675 804,025.80 80,402.58 40,201.29 0.90 60.30 140.70
2003 2,095,648 917,893.83 91,789.38 45,894.69 1.02 68.84 160.63
2004 2,408,158 1,054,773.37 105,477.34 52,738.67 1.18 79.11 184.59
2005 2,802,054 1,227,299.75 122,729.97 61,364.99 1.37 92.05 214.78
2006 3,179,621 1,392,674.19 139,267.42 69,633.71 1.55 104.45 243.72
2007 3,855,793 1,407,778.51 141,125.84 71,521.75 1.88 109.34 255.12
2008 4,067,699 1,412,512.07 141,708.26 72,113.44 1.99 110.87 258.69
2009 4,588,628 1,424,148.57 143,140.00 73,568.01 2.24 114.63 267.48
2010 5,116,381 1,435,937.52 144,590.51 75,041.63 2.50 118.45 276.38
2011 5,616,674 1,447,113.07 145,965.54 76,438.57 2.74 122.06 284.81
2012 6,091,095 1,457,710.68 147,269.46 77,763.27 2.98 125.49 292.81
2013 6,550,171 1,467,965.51 148,531.20 79,045.13 3.20 128.81 300.56
2014 6,994,537 1,477,891.77 149,752.52 80,285.91 3.42 132.02 308.05
2015 7,341,494 1,485,642.09 150,706.12 81,254.70 3.59 134.53 313.90
2016 7,836,447 1,496,698.35 152,066.47 82,636.73 3.83 138.11 322.25
2017 8,233,591 1,505,569.76 153,158.00 83,745.66 4.02 140.98 328.94
2018 8,674,224 1,515,412.62 154,369.06 84,976.01 4.24 144.16 336.37
2019 9,064,929 1,518,065.12 154,647.14 85,322.55 0.62 145.57 339.67
2020 9,494,704 1,520,982.86 154,953.04 85,703.74 0.65 147.12 343.29
2021 9,967,457 1,524,192.38 155,289.52 86,123.05 0.68 148.83 347.28
2022 10,487,486 1,527,722.85 155,659.65 86,584.29 0.71 150.71 351.66
2023 11,059,517 1,531,606.37 156,066.79 87,091.65 0.75 152.78 356.49
2024 11,688,751 1,535,878.24 156,514.65 87,649.75 0.80 155.05 361.79
2025 12,380,908 1,540,577.30 157,007.29 88,263.66 0.84 157.55 367.63
2026 13,142,282 1,545,746.27 157,549.20 88,938.96 0.90 160.31 374.05
2027 13,979,792 1,551,432.13 158,145.30 89,681.79 0.95 163.33 381.11
2028 14,901,054 1,557,686.57 158,801.01 90,498.90 1.02 166.66 388.87
2029 15,914,442 1,564,566.46 159,522.28 91,397.73 1.08 170.32 397.42
2030 17,029,169 1,572,134.34 160,315.69 92,386.43 1.16 174.35 406.82
18,255,368
Just Euro 6
1999 1,563,277 684,715.36 68,471.54 34,235.77 0.76 51.35 119.83
2000 1,639,252 717,992.35 71,799.23 35,899.62 0.80 53.85 125.65
2001 1,720,251 753,470.03 75,347.00 37,673.50 0.84 56.51 131.86
2002 1,835,675 804,025.80 80,402.58 40,201.29 0.90 60.30 140.70
2003 2,095,648 917,893.83 91,789.38 45,894.69 1.02 68.84 160.63
2004 2,408,158 1,054,773.37 105,477.34 52,738.67 1.18 79.11 184.59
2005 2,802,054 1,227,299.75 122,729.97 61,364.99 1.37 92.05 214.78
2006 3,179,621 1,392,674.19 139,267.42 69,633.71 1.55 104.45 243.72
2007 3,855,793 1,407,778.51 141,125.84 71,521.75 1.88 109.34 255.12
2008 4,067,699 1,412,512.07 141,708.26 72,113.44 1.99 110.87 258.69
2009 4,588,628 1,424,148.57 143,140.00 73,568.01 2.24 114.63 267.48
2010 5,116,381 1,435,937.52 144,590.51 75,041.63 2.50 118.45 276.38
2011 5,616,674 1,447,113.07 145,965.54 76,438.57 2.74 122.06 284.81
2012 6,091,095 1,457,710.68 147,269.46 77,763.27 2.98 125.49 292.81
2013 6,550,171 1,467,965.51 148,531.20 79,045.13 3.20 128.81 300.56
2014 6,994,537 1,477,891.77 149,752.52 80,285.91 3.42 132.02 308.05
2015 7,341,494 1,485,642.09 150,706.12 81,254.70 3.59 134.53 313.90
2016 7,836,447 1,496,698.35 152,066.47 82,636.73 3.83 138.11 322.25
2017 8,233,591 1,505,569.76 153,158.00 83,745.66 4.02 140.98 328.94
2018 8,674,224 1,515,412.62 154,369.06 84,976.01 4.24 144.16 336.37
2019 9,064,929 1,518,065.12 154,647.14 85,322.55 0.62 145.57 339.67
2020 9,494,704 1,520,982.86 154,953.04 85,703.74 0.65 147.12 343.29
2021 9,967,457 1,524,192.38 155,289.52 86,123.05 0.68 148.83 347.28
2022 10,487,486 1,527,722.85 155,659.65 86,584.29 0.71 150.71 351.66
2023 11,059,517 1,531,606.37 156,066.79 87,091.65 0.75 152.78 356.49
2024 11,688,751 1,535,878.24 156,514.65 87,649.75 0.80 155.05 361.79
2025 12,380,908 1,539,819.39 156,931.50 88,112.07 0.17 157.33 367.10
2026 13,142,282 1,544,154.65 157,390.04 88,620.63 0.18 159.83 372.93
2027 13,979,792 1,548,923.43 157,894.43 89,180.05 0.19 162.58 379.35
2028 14,901,054 1,554,169.10 158,449.26 89,795.41 0.20 165.61 386.41
2029 15,914,442 1,559,939.33 159,059.57 90,472.30 0.22 168.93 394.18
2030 17,029,169 1,566,286.58 159,730.92 91,216.88 0.23 172.60 402.72
113
Diesel Passenger Car
1999 1,331,680 40,829.32 2,916.38 51,036.65 7.64 2,318.52 5,409.89
2000 1,396,400 42,813.62 3,058.12 53,517.02 8.01 2,431.20 5,672.80
2001 1,465,399 44,929.14 3,209.22 56,161.42 8.40 2,551.33 5,953.11
2002 1,563,723 47,943.76 3,424.55 59,929.70 8.97 2,722.52 6,352.55
2003 1,785,182 54,733.67 3,909.55 68,417.09 10.24 3,108.09 7,252.21
2004 2,051,394 62,895.75 4,492.55 78,619.68 11.77 3,571.58 8,333.69
2005 2,386,935 73,183.43 5,227.39 91,479.29 13.69 4,155.77 9,696.80
2006 2,708,566 83,044.65 5,931.76 103,805.81 15.53 4,715.75 11,003.42
2007 3,284,564 84,911.57 6,152.51 108,321.75 2.24 5,275.83 12,310.26
2008 3,465,077 85,496.65 6,221.69 109,737.00 2.36 5,451.35 12,719.82
2009 3,908,831 86,934.94 6,391.76 113,216.12 2.66 5,882.84 13,726.62
2010 4,358,399 88,392.08 6,564.06 116,740.82 2.97 6,319.98 14,746.62
2011 4,784,574 89,773.40 6,727.39 120,082.12 3.26 6,734.38 15,713.55
2012 5,188,710 91,083.29 6,882.28 123,250.63 3.54 7,127.34 16,630.47
2013 5,579,775 92,350.81 7,032.15 126,316.66 3.80 7,507.60 17,517.73
2014 5,958,309 93,577.71 7,177.22 129,284.44 4.06 7,875.67 18,376.56
2015 6,253,865 94,535.67 7,290.50 131,601.66 4.26 8,163.06 19,047.13
2016 6,675,492 95,902.24 7,452.08 134,907.29 4.55 8,573.03 20,003.73
2017 7,013,800 96,998.77 7,581.74 137,559.70 4.78 8,901.99 20,771.30
2018 7,389,154 98,215.37 7,725.60 140,502.55 5.04 9,266.97 21,622.92
2019 7,721,977 99,294.11 7,853.15 143,111.95 5.26 9,590.59 22,378.04
2020 8,088,082 100,480.73 7,993.46 145,982.28 5.51 9,946.57 23,208.67
2021 8,490,797 100,886.43 8,055.20 148,539.93 0.68 5,725.70 13,359.96
2022 8,933,784 101,332.69 8,123.11 151,353.34 0.71 5,771.39 13,466.58
2023 9,421,070 101,823.58 8,197.81 154,448.09 0.75 5,821.66 13,583.86
2024 9,957,084 102,363.56 8,279.98 157,852.32 0.80 5,876.94 13,712.87
2025 10,546,700 102,679.92 8,422.02 162,694.54 0.17 5,906.00 13,780.66
2026 11,195,277 103,027.92 8,478.83 163,901.86 0.18 5,937.96 13,855.23
2027 11,908,712 103,410.71 8,541.33 165,229.92 0.19 5,973.11 13,937.26
2028 12,693,491 103,831.78 8,610.07 166,690.79 0.20 6,011.78 14,027.49
2029 13,556,747 104,294.96 8,685.70 168,297.74 0.22 6,054.32 14,126.74
2030 14,506,329 104,804.46 8,768.88 170,065.39 0.23 6,101.11 14,235.92
15,550,869
BAU 1999
1999 1,331,680 40,829.32 2,916.38 51,036.65 7.64 2,318.52 5,409.89
2000 1,396,400 42,813.62 3,058.12 53,517.02 8.01 2,431.20 5,672.80
2001 1,465,399 44,929.14 3,209.22 56,161.42 8.40 2,551.33 5,953.11
2002 1,563,723 47,943.76 3,424.55 59,929.70 8.97 2,722.52 6,352.55
2003 1,785,182 54,733.67 3,909.55 68,417.09 10.24 3,108.09 7,252.21
2004 2,051,394 62,895.75 4,492.55 78,619.68 11.77 3,571.58 8,333.69
2005 2,386,935 73,183.43 5,227.39 91,479.29 13.69 4,155.77 9,696.80
2006 2,708,566 83,044.65 5,931.76 103,805.81 15.53 4,715.75 11,003.42
2007 3,284,564 100,704.74 7,193.20 125,880.93 18.84 5,718.59 13,343.38
2008 3,465,077 106,239.27 7,588.52 132,799.08 19.87 6,032.87 14,076.70
2009 3,908,831 119,844.76 8,560.34 149,805.95 22.42 6,805.47 15,879.43
2010 4,358,399 133,628.50 9,544.89 167,035.63 25.00 7,588.19 17,705.78
2011 4,784,574 146,695.05 10,478.22 183,368.81 27.44 8,330.18 19,437.09
2012 5,188,710 159,085.86 11,363.28 198,857.32 29.76 9,033.80 21,078.88
2013 5,579,775 171,075.90 12,219.71 213,844.87 32.00 9,714.67 22,667.56
2014 5,958,309 182,681.76 13,048.70 228,352.21 34.17 10,373.71 24,205.33
2015 6,253,865 191,743.50 13,695.96 239,679.37 35.87 10,888.29 25,406.01
2016 6,675,492 204,670.57 14,619.33 255,838.21 38.29 11,622.36 27,118.85
2017 7,013,800 215,043.10 15,360.22 268,803.88 40.23 12,211.38 28,493.21
2018 7,389,154 226,551.46 16,182.25 283,189.32 42.38 12,864.89 30,018.07
2019 7,721,977 236,755.80 16,911.13 295,944.75 44.29 13,444.35 31,370.14
2020 8,088,082 247,980.58 17,712.90 309,975.73 46.39 14,081.75 32,857.43
2021 8,490,797 260,327.84 18,594.85 325,409.80 48.70 14,782.90 34,493.44
2022 8,933,784 273,909.82 19,564.99 342,387.27 51.24 15,554.16 36,293.05
2023 9,421,070 288,850.00 20,632.14 361,062.50 54.03 16,402.55 38,272.62
2024 9,957,084 305,284.20 21,806.01 381,605.25 57.11 17,335.78 40,450.16
2025 10,546,700 323,361.82 23,097.27 404,202.27 60.49 18,362.33 42,845.44
2026 11,195,277 343,247.19 24,517.66 429,058.99 64.21 19,491.54 45,480.25
2027 11,908,712 365,121.11 26,080.08 456,401.39 68.30 20,733.66 48,378.55
2028 12,693,491 389,182.42 27,798.74 486,478.03 72.80 22,100.00 51,566.67
2029 13,556,747 415,649.86 29,689.28 519,562.33 77.75 23,602.97 55,073.61
2030 14,506,329 444,764.05 31,768.86 555,955.06 83.20 25,256.24 58,931.24
114
Just Euro 2
1999 1,331,680 40,829.32 2,916.38 51,036.65 7.64 2,318.52 5,409.89
2000 1,396,400 42,813.62 3,058.12 53,517.02 8.01 2,431.20 5,672.80
2001 1,465,399 44,929.14 3,209.22 56,161.42 8.40 2,551.33 5,953.11
2002 1,563,723 47,943.76 3,424.55 59,929.70 8.97 2,722.52 6,352.55
2003 1,785,182 54,733.67 3,909.55 68,417.09 10.24 3,108.09 7,252.21
2004 2,051,394 62,895.75 4,492.55 78,619.68 11.77 3,571.58 8,333.69
2005 2,386,935 73,183.43 5,227.39 91,479.29 13.69 4,155.77 9,696.80
2006 2,708,566 83,044.65 5,931.76 103,805.81 15.53 4,715.75 11,003.42
2007 3,284,564 84,911.57 6,152.51 108,321.75 2.24 5,275.83 12,310.26
2008 3,465,077 85,496.65 6,221.69 109,737.00 2.36 5,451.35 12,719.82
2009 3,908,831 86,934.94 6,391.76 113,216.12 2.66 5,882.84 13,726.62
2010 4,358,399 88,392.08 6,564.06 116,740.82 2.97 6,319.98 14,746.62
2011 4,784,574 89,773.40 6,727.39 120,082.12 3.26 6,734.38 15,713.55
2012 5,188,710 91,083.29 6,882.28 123,250.63 3.54 7,127.34 16,630.47
2013 5,579,775 92,350.81 7,032.15 126,316.66 3.80 7,507.60 17,517.73
2014 5,958,309 93,577.71 7,177.22 129,284.44 4.06 7,875.67 18,376.56
2015 6,253,865 94,535.67 7,290.50 131,601.66 4.26 8,163.06 19,047.13
2016 6,675,492 95,902.24 7,452.08 134,907.29 4.55 8,573.03 20,003.73
2017 7,013,800 96,998.77 7,581.74 137,559.70 4.78 8,901.99 20,771.30
2018 7,389,154 98,215.37 7,725.60 140,502.55 5.04 9,266.97 21,622.92
2019 7,721,977 99,294.11 7,853.15 143,111.95 5.26 9,590.59 22,378.04
2020 8,088,082 100,480.73 7,993.46 145,982.28 5.51 9,946.57 23,208.67
2021 8,490,797 101,786.01 8,147.80 149,139.65 5.79 10,338.16 24,122.37
2022 8,933,784 103,221.82 8,317.58 152,612.76 6.09 10,768.90 25,127.44
2023 9,421,070 104,801.21 8,504.33 156,433.18 6.42 11,242.72 26,233.01
2024 9,957,084 106,538.54 8,709.75 160,635.64 6.79 11,763.92 27,449.14
2025 10,546,700 108,449.60 8,935.73 165,258.34 7.19 12,337.24 28,786.89
2026 11,195,277 110,551.77 9,184.29 170,343.32 7.63 12,967.89 30,258.40
2027 11,908,712 112,864.16 9,457.72 175,936.79 8.12 13,661.60 31,877.07
2028 12,693,491 115,407.78 9,758.48 182,089.61 8.65 14,424.69 33,657.61
2029 13,556,747 118,205.77 10,089.33 188,857.71 9.24 15,264.09 35,616.20
2030 14,506,329 121,283.55 10,453.25 196,302.63 9.89 16,187.42 37,770.65
15,550,869
Just Euro 4
1999 1,331,680 40,829.32 2,916.38 51,036.65 7.64 2,318.52 5,409.89
2000 1,396,400 42,813.62 3,058.12 53,517.02 8.01 2,431.20 5,672.80
2001 1,465,399 44,929.14 3,209.22 56,161.42 8.40 2,551.33 5,953.11
2002 1,563,723 47,943.76 3,424.55 59,929.70 8.97 2,722.52 6,352.55
2003 1,785,182 54,733.67 3,909.55 68,417.09 10.24 3,108.09 7,252.21
2004 2,051,394 62,895.75 4,492.55 78,619.68 11.77 3,571.58 8,333.69
2005 2,386,935 73,183.43 5,227.39 91,479.29 13.69 4,155.77 9,696.80
2006 2,708,566 83,044.65 5,931.76 103,805.81 15.53 4,715.75 11,003.42
2007 3,284,564 84,911.57 6,152.51 108,321.75 2.24 5,275.83 12,310.26
2008 3,465,077 85,496.65 6,221.69 109,737.00 2.36 5,451.35 12,719.82
2009 3,908,831 86,934.94 6,391.76 113,216.12 2.66 5,882.84 13,726.62
2010 4,358,399 88,392.08 6,564.06 116,740.82 2.97 6,319.98 14,746.62
2011 4,784,574 89,773.40 6,727.39 120,082.12 3.26 6,734.38 15,713.55
2012 5,188,710 91,083.29 6,882.28 123,250.63 3.54 7,127.34 16,630.47
2013 5,579,775 92,350.81 7,032.15 126,316.66 3.80 7,507.60 17,517.73
2014 5,958,309 93,577.71 7,177.22 129,284.44 4.06 7,875.67 18,376.56
2015 6,253,865 94,535.67 7,290.50 131,601.66 4.26 8,163.06 19,047.13
2016 6,675,492 95,902.24 7,452.08 134,907.29 4.55 8,573.03 20,003.73
2017 7,013,800 96,998.77 7,581.74 137,559.70 4.78 8,901.99 20,771.30
2018 7,389,154 98,215.37 7,725.60 140,502.55 5.04 9,266.97 21,622.92
2019 7,721,977 99,294.11 7,853.15 143,111.95 5.26 9,590.59 22,378.04
2020 8,088,082 100,480.73 7,993.46 145,982.28 5.51 9,946.57 23,208.67
2021 8,490,797 100,886.43 8,055.20 148,539.93 0.68 5,725.70 13,359.96
2022 8,933,784 101,332.69 8,123.11 151,353.34 0.71 5,771.39 13,466.58
2023 9,421,070 101,823.58 8,197.81 154,448.09 0.75 5,821.66 13,583.86
2024 9,957,084 102,363.56 8,279.98 157,852.32 0.80 5,876.94 13,712.87
2025 10,546,700 102,957.54 8,370.37 161,596.97 0.84 5,937.76 13,854.78
2026 11,195,277 103,610.92 8,469.79 165,716.08 0.90 6,004.66 14,010.88
2027 11,908,712 104,329.63 8,579.16 170,247.11 0.95 6,078.25 14,182.59
2028 12,693,491 105,120.22 8,699.47 175,231.24 1.02 6,159.20 14,371.47
2029 13,556,747 105,989.86 8,831.81 180,713.78 1.08 6,248.25 14,579.24
2030 14,506,329 106,946.47 8,977.38 186,744.57 1.16 6,346.19 14,807.79
115
Just Euro 6
1999 1,331,680 40,829.32 2,916.38 51,036.65 7.64 2,318.52 5,409.89
2000 1,396,400 42,813.62 3,058.12 53,517.02 8.01 2,431.20 5,672.80
2001 1,465,399 44,929.14 3,209.22 56,161.42 8.40 2,551.33 5,953.11
2002 1,563,723 47,943.76 3,424.55 59,929.70 8.97 2,722.52 6,352.55
2003 1,785,182 54,733.67 3,909.55 68,417.09 10.24 3,108.09 7,252.21
2004 2,051,394 62,895.75 4,492.55 78,619.68 11.77 3,571.58 8,333.69
2005 2,386,935 73,183.43 5,227.39 91,479.29 13.69 4,155.77 9,696.80
2006 2,708,566 83,044.65 5,931.76 103,805.81 15.53 4,715.75 11,003.42
2007 3,284,564 84,911.57 6,152.51 108,321.75 2.24 5,275.83 12,310.26
2008 3,465,077 85,496.65 6,221.69 109,737.00 2.36 5,451.35 12,719.82
2009 3,908,831 86,934.94 6,391.76 113,216.12 2.66 5,882.84 13,726.62
2010 4,358,399 88,392.08 6,564.06 116,740.82 2.97 6,319.98 14,746.62
2011 4,784,574 89,773.40 6,727.39 120,082.12 3.26 6,734.38 15,713.55
2012 5,188,710 91,083.29 6,882.28 123,250.63 3.54 7,127.34 16,630.47
2013 5,579,775 92,350.81 7,032.15 126,316.66 3.80 7,507.60 17,517.73
2014 5,958,309 93,577.71 7,177.22 129,284.44 4.06 7,875.67 18,376.56
2015 6,253,865 94,535.67 7,290.50 131,601.66 4.26 8,163.06 19,047.13
2016 6,675,492 95,902.24 7,452.08 134,907.29 4.55 8,573.03 20,003.73
2017 7,013,800 96,998.77 7,581.74 137,559.70 4.78 8,901.99 20,771.30
2018 7,389,154 98,215.37 7,725.60 140,502.55 5.04 9,266.97 21,622.92
2019 7,721,977 99,294.11 7,853.15 143,111.95 5.26 9,590.59 22,378.04
2020 8,088,082 100,480.73 7,993.46 145,982.28 5.51 9,946.57 23,208.67
2021 8,490,797 100,886.43 8,055.20 148,539.93 0.68 5,725.70 13,359.96
2022 8,933,784 101,332.69 8,123.11 151,353.34 0.71 5,771.39 13,466.58
2023 9,421,070 101,823.58 8,197.81 154,448.09 0.75 5,821.66 13,583.86
2024 9,957,084 102,363.56 8,279.98 157,852.32 0.80 5,876.94 13,712.87
2025 10,546,700 102,679.92 8,422.02 162,694.54 0.17 5,906.00 13,780.66
2026 11,195,277 103,027.92 8,478.83 163,901.86 0.18 5,937.96 13,855.23
2027 11,908,712 103,410.71 8,541.33 165,229.92 0.19 5,973.11 13,937.26
2028 12,693,491 103,831.78 8,610.07 166,690.79 0.20 6,011.78 14,027.49
2029 13,556,747 104,294.96 8,685.70 168,297.74 0.22 6,054.32 14,126.74
2030 14,506,329 104,804.46 8,768.88 170,065.39 0.23 6,101.11 14,235.92
Bus
1999 744,312 224,131.04 26,488.21 242,469.03 64.17 8,557.73 19,968.04
2000 755,840 227,602.31 26,898.45 246,224.31 65.17 8,690.27 20,277.30
2001 764,577 230,233.28 27,209.39 249,070.55 65.92 8,790.73 20,511.69
2002 773,536 232,931.15 27,528.23 251,989.15 66.69 8,893.73 20,752.05
2003 797,262 240,075.42 28,372.55 259,717.96 68.74 9,166.52 21,388.54
2004 812,219 244,579.32 28,904.83 264,590.35 70.03 9,338.48 21,789.79
2005 833,759 251,065.60 29,671.39 271,607.33 71.88 9,586.14 22,367.66
2006 844,638 254,341.52 30,058.54 275,151.28 72.82 9,711.22 22,659.52
2007 865,748 256,653.05 30,326.10 281,334.62 10.42 9,749.36 22,748.51
2008 883,411 258,587.20 30,549.98 286,508.47 10.63 9,781.28 22,822.98
2009 912,873 261,813.28 30,923.40 295,138.25 10.98 9,834.51 22,947.18
2010 1,001,158 271,480.46 32,042.38 320,997.95 12.04 9,994.01 23,319.37
2011 1,087,057 280,886.39 33,131.11 346,158.81 13.08 10,149.21 23,681.49
2012 1,104,699 282,818.28 33,354.73 351,326.62 13.29 10,181.09 23,755.87
2013 1,177,730 290,815.15 34,280.37 372,718.25 14.17 10,313.04 24,063.75
2014 1,254,967 299,272.62 35,259.32 395,341.96 15.10 10,452.58 24,389.36
2015 1,329,952 307,483.47 36,209.72 417,306.01 16.00 10,588.06 24,705.48
2016 1,444,585 320,035.72 37,662.65 450,883.26 17.38 10,795.18 25,188.74
2017 1,607,263 337,848.94 39,724.53 498,533.63 19.34 11,089.09 25,874.55
2018 1,767,814 355,429.37 41,759.46 545,561.28 21.27 11,379.17 26,551.40
2019 1,894,745 369,328.26 43,368.26 582,740.82 22.79 11,608.50 27,086.51
2020 2,034,369 384,617.05 45,137.94 623,638.32 24.47 11,860.77 27,675.13
2021 2,187,954 390,923.67 46,062.91 646,426.25 2.63 11,919.04 27,811.10
2022 2,356,899 397,860.96 47,080.38 671,492.97 2.84 11,983.14 27,960.66
2023 2,542,738 405,491.97 48,199.59 699,066.37 3.06 12,053.65 28,125.19
2024 2,747,161 413,886.09 49,430.73 729,397.11 3.30 12,131.21 28,306.17
2025 2,972,026 415,258.80 49,510.75 733,072.05 2.26 12,135.46 28,316.08
2026 3,219,378 416,768.79 49,598.78 737,114.49 2.45 12,140.13 28,326.98
2027 3,491,465 418,429.78 49,695.61 741,561.17 2.65 12,145.27 28,338.97
2028 3,790,760 420,256.87 49,802.12 746,452.52 2.88 12,150.93 28,352.16
2029 4,119,985 422,266.67 49,919.28 751,833.01 3.13 12,157.14 28,366.67
2030 4,482,133 424,477.44 50,048.16 757,751.54 3.41 12,163.99 28,382.63
116
BAU 1999
1999 744,312 224,131.04 26,488.21 242,469.03 64.17 8,557.73 19,968.04
2000 755,840 227,602.31 26,898.45 246,224.31 65.17 8,690.27 20,277.30
2001 764,577 230,233.28 27,209.39 249,070.55 65.92 8,790.73 20,511.69
2002 773,536 232,931.15 27,528.23 251,989.15 66.69 8,893.73 20,752.05
2003 797,262 240,075.42 28,372.55 259,717.96 68.74 9,166.52 21,388.54
2004 812,219 244,579.32 28,904.83 264,590.35 70.03 9,338.48 21,789.79
2005 833,759 251,065.60 29,671.39 271,607.33 71.88 9,586.14 22,367.66
2006 844,638 254,341.52 30,058.54 275,151.28 72.82 9,711.22 22,659.52
2007 865,748 260,698.23 30,809.79 282,028.08 74.64 9,953.93 23,225.84
2008 883,411 266,017.14 31,438.39 287,782.18 76.16 10,157.02 23,699.71
2009 912,873 274,888.87 32,486.87 297,379.78 78.70 10,495.76 24,490.10
2010 1,001,158 301,473.61 35,628.70 326,139.63 86.32 11,510.81 26,858.56
2011 1,087,057 327,339.91 38,685.63 354,122.27 93.72 12,498.43 29,163.01
2012 1,104,699 332,652.62 39,313.49 359,869.65 95.24 12,701.28 29,636.32
2013 1,177,730 354,644.01 41,912.47 383,660.34 101.54 13,540.95 31,595.56
2014 1,254,967 377,902.03 44,661.15 408,821.29 108.20 14,428.99 33,667.64
2015 1,329,952 400,481.89 47,329.68 433,248.59 114.66 15,291.13 35,679.30
2016 1,444,585 435,000.56 51,409.16 470,591.52 124.55 16,609.11 38,754.60
2017 1,607,263 483,986.93 57,198.46 523,585.86 138.57 18,479.50 43,118.84
2018 1,767,814 532,333.11 62,912.09 575,887.63 152.41 20,325.45 47,426.04
2019 1,894,745 570,555.07 67,429.24 617,236.84 163.36 21,784.83 50,831.27
2020 2,034,369 612,599.22 72,398.09 662,720.97 175.39 23,390.15 54,577.02
2021 2,187,954 658,847.79 77,863.83 712,753.52 188.64 25,156.01 58,697.35
2022 2,356,899 709,721.22 83,876.14 767,789.32 203.20 27,098.45 63,229.71
2023 2,542,738 765,681.99 90,489.69 828,328.70 219.22 29,235.13 68,215.30
2024 2,747,161 827,238.84 97,764.59 894,922.01 236.85 31,585.48 73,699.46
2025 2,972,026 894,951.37 105,766.98 968,174.66 256.24 34,170.87 79,732.03
2026 3,219,378 969,435.15 114,569.61 1,048,752.57 277.56 37,014.80 86,367.86
2027 3,491,465 1,051,367.32 124,252.50 1,137,388.28 301.02 40,143.12 93,667.27
2028 3,790,760 1,141,492.70 134,903.68 1,234,887.55 326.82 43,584.27 101,696.62
2029 4,119,985 1,240,630.61 146,619.98 1,342,136.76 355.21 47,369.53 110,528.91
2030 4,482,133 1,349,682.32 159,507.91 1,460,110.88 386.43 51,533.33 120,244.43
4,880,495
Just Euro 2
1999 744,312 224,131.04 26,488.21 242,469.03 64.17 8,557.73 19,968.04
2000 755,840 227,602.31 26,898.45 246,224.31 65.17 8,690.27 20,277.30
2001 764,577 230,233.28 27,209.39 249,070.55 65.92 8,790.73 20,511.69
2002 773,536 232,931.15 27,528.23 251,989.15 66.69 8,893.73 20,752.05
2003 797,262 240,075.42 28,372.55 259,717.96 68.74 9,166.52 21,388.54
2004 812,219 244,579.32 28,904.83 264,590.35 70.03 9,338.48 21,789.79
2005 833,759 251,065.60 29,671.39 271,607.33 71.88 9,586.14 22,367.66
2006 844,638 254,341.52 30,058.54 275,151.28 72.82 9,711.22 22,659.52
2007 865,748 256,653.05 30,326.10 275,151.28 10.42 9,749.36 22,748.51
2008 883,411 258,587.20 30,549.98 281,334.62 10.63 9,781.28 22,822.98
2009 912,873 261,813.28 30,923.40 286,508.47 10.98 9,834.51 22,947.18
2010 1,001,158 271,480.46 32,042.38 295,138.25 12.04 9,994.01 23,319.37
2011 1,087,057 280,886.39 33,131.11 320,997.95 13.08 10,149.21 23,681.49
2012 1,104,699 282,818.28 33,354.73 346,158.81 13.29 10,181.09 23,755.87
2013 1,177,730 290,815.15 34,280.37 351,326.62 14.17 10,313.04 24,063.75
2014 1,254,967 299,272.62 35,259.32 372,718.25 15.10 10,452.58 24,389.36
2015 1,329,952 307,483.47 36,209.72 395,341.96 16.00 10,588.06 24,705.48
2016 1,444,585 320,035.72 37,662.65 417,306.01 17.38 10,795.18 25,188.74
2017 1,607,263 337,848.94 39,724.53 450,883.26 19.34 11,089.09 25,874.55
2018 1,767,814 355,429.37 41,759.46 498,533.63 21.27 11,379.17 26,551.40
2019 1,894,745 369,328.26 43,368.26 545,561.28 22.79 11,608.50 27,086.51
2020 2,034,369 384,617.05 45,137.94 582,740.82 24.47 11,860.77 27,675.13
2021 2,187,954 401,434.71 47,084.58 623,638.32 26.32 12,138.26 28,322.61
2022 2,356,899 419,934.14 49,225.89 668,625.56 28.35 12,443.50 29,034.83
2023 2,542,738 440,283.51 51,581.33 718,111.53 30.59 12,779.26 29,818.28
2024 2,747,161 462,667.82 54,172.31 772,546.10 33.05 13,148.61 30,680.08
2025 2,972,026 487,290.56 57,022.39 832,424.12 35.75 13,554.88 31,628.06
2026 3,219,378 514,375.57 60,157.48 898,289.95 38.73 14,001.78 32,670.83
2027 3,491,465 544,169.08 63,606.08 970,742.36 42.00 14,493.38 33,817.88
2028 3,790,760 576,941.95 67,399.54 1,050,440.01 45.60 15,034.13 35,079.63
2029 4,119,985 612,992.10 71,572.35 1,138,107.43 49.57 15,628.96 36,467.56
2030 4,482,133 652,647.27 76,162.43 1,234,541.58 53.92 16,283.27 37,994.29
117
Just Euro 4
1999 744,312 224,131.04 26,488.21 242,469.03 64.17 8,557.73 19,968.04
2000 755,840 227,602.31 26,898.45 246,224.31 65.17 8,690.27 20,277.30
2001 764,577 230,233.28 27,209.39 249,070.55 65.92 8,790.73 20,511.69
2002 773,536 232,931.15 27,528.23 251,989.15 66.69 8,893.73 20,752.05
2003 797,262 240,075.42 28,372.55 259,717.96 68.74 9,166.52 21,388.54
2004 812,219 244,579.32 28,904.83 264,590.35 70.03 9,338.48 21,789.79
2005 833,759 251,065.60 29,671.39 271,607.33 71.88 9,586.14 22,367.66
2006 844,638 254,341.52 30,058.54 275,151.28 72.82 9,711.22 22,659.52
2007 865,748 256,653.05 30,326.10 281,334.62 10.42 9,749.36 22,748.51
2008 883,411 258,587.20 30,549.98 286,508.47 10.63 9,781.28 22,822.98
2009 912,873 261,813.28 30,923.40 295,138.25 10.98 9,834.51 22,947.18
2010 1,001,158 271,480.46 32,042.38 320,997.95 12.04 9,994.01 23,319.37
2011 1,087,057 280,886.39 33,131.11 346,158.81 13.08 10,149.21 23,681.49
2012 1,104,699 282,818.28 33,354.73 351,326.62 13.29 10,181.09 23,755.87
2013 1,177,730 290,815.15 34,280.37 372,718.25 14.17 10,313.04 24,063.75
2014 1,254,967 299,272.62 35,259.32 395,341.96 15.10 10,452.58 24,389.36
2015 1,329,952 307,483.47 36,209.72 417,306.01 16.00 10,588.06 24,705.48
2016 1,444,585 320,035.72 37,662.65 450,883.26 17.38 10,795.18 25,188.74
2017 1,607,263 337,848.94 39,724.53 498,533.63 19.34 11,089.09 25,874.55
2018 1,767,814 355,429.37 41,759.46 545,561.28 21.27 11,379.17 26,551.40
2019 1,894,745 369,328.26 43,368.26 582,740.82 22.79 11,608.50 27,086.51
2020 2,034,369 384,617.05 45,137.94 623,638.32 24.47 11,860.77 27,675.13
2021 2,187,954 390,923.67 46,062.91 646,426.25 2.63 11,919.04 27,811.10
2022 2,356,899 397,860.96 47,080.38 671,492.97 2.84 11,983.14 27,960.66
2023 2,542,738 405,491.97 48,199.59 699,066.37 3.06 12,053.65 28,125.19
2024 2,747,161 413,886.09 49,430.73 729,397.11 3.30 12,131.21 28,306.17
2025 2,972,026 423,119.61 50,784.98 762,760.92 3.58 12,216.53 28,505.24
2026 3,219,378 433,276.49 52,274.65 799,461.11 3.87 12,310.38 28,724.22
2027 3,491,465 444,449.06 53,913.30 839,831.32 4.20 12,413.62 28,965.10
2028 3,790,760 456,738.89 55,715.81 884,238.56 4.56 12,527.17 29,230.07
2029 4,119,985 470,257.69 57,698.56 933,086.51 4.96 12,652.09 29,521.54
2030 4,482,133 485,128.38 59,879.60 986,819.26 5.39 12,789.49 29,842.15
0
Just Euro 6
1999 744,312 224,131.04 26,488.21 242,469.03 64.17 8,557.73 19,968.04
2000 755,840 227,602.31 26,898.45 246,224.31 65.17 8,690.27 20,277.30
2001 764,577 230,233.28 27,209.39 249,070.55 65.92 8,790.73 20,511.69
2002 773,536 232,931.15 27,528.23 251,989.15 66.69 8,893.73 20,752.05
2003 797,262 240,075.42 28,372.55 259,717.96 68.74 9,166.52 21,388.54
2004 812,219 244,579.32 28,904.83 264,590.35 70.03 9,338.48 21,789.79
2005 833,759 251,065.60 29,671.39 271,607.33 71.88 9,586.14 22,367.66
2006 844,638 254,341.52 30,058.54 275,151.28 72.82 9,711.22 22,659.52
2007 865,748 256,653.05 30,326.10 281,334.62 10.42 9,749.36 22,748.51
2008 883,411 258,587.20 30,549.98 286,508.47 10.63 9,781.28 22,822.98
2009 912,873 261,813.28 30,923.40 295,138.25 10.98 9,834.51 22,947.18
2010 1,001,158 271,480.46 32,042.38 320,997.95 12.04 9,994.01 23,319.37
2011 1,087,057 280,886.39 33,131.11 346,158.81 13.08 10,149.21 23,681.49
2012 1,104,699 282,818.28 33,354.73 351,326.62 13.29 10,181.09 23,755.87
2013 1,177,730 290,815.15 34,280.37 372,718.25 14.17 10,313.04 24,063.75
2014 1,254,967 299,272.62 35,259.32 395,341.96 15.10 10,452.58 24,389.36
2015 1,329,952 307,483.47 36,209.72 417,306.01 16.00 10,588.06 24,705.48
2016 1,444,585 320,035.72 37,662.65 450,883.26 17.38 10,795.18 25,188.74
2017 1,607,263 337,848.94 39,724.53 498,533.63 19.34 11,089.09 25,874.55
2018 1,767,814 355,429.37 41,759.46 545,561.28 21.27 11,379.17 26,551.40
2019 1,894,745 369,328.26 43,368.26 582,740.82 22.79 11,608.50 27,086.51
2020 2,034,369 384,617.05 45,137.94 623,638.32 24.47 11,860.77 27,675.13
2021 2,187,954 390,923.67 46,062.91 646,426.25 2.63 11,919.04 27,811.10
2022 2,356,899 397,860.96 47,080.38 671,492.97 2.84 11,983.14 27,960.66
2023 2,542,738 405,491.97 48,199.59 699,066.37 3.06 12,053.65 28,125.19
2024 2,747,161 413,886.09 49,430.73 729,397.11 3.30 12,131.21 28,306.17
2025 2,972,026 415,258.80 49,510.75 733,072.05 2.26 12,135.46 28,316.08
2026 3,219,378 416,768.79 49,598.78 737,114.49 2.45 12,140.13 28,326.98
2027 3,491,465 418,429.78 49,695.61 741,561.17 2.65 12,145.27 28,338.97
2028 3,790,760 420,256.87 49,802.12 746,452.52 2.88 12,150.93 28,352.16
2029 4,119,985 422,266.67 49,919.28 751,833.01 3.13 12,157.14 28,366.67
2030 4,482,133 424,477.44 50,048.16 757,751.54 3.41 12,163.99 28,382.63
118
Truck
1999 1,626,569 195,920.21 23,154.21 211,950.04 56.09 7,480.59 17,454.71
2000 1,704,717 205,333.16 24,266.65 222,133.14 58.79 7,839.99 18,293.32
2001 1,774,287 213,712.85 25,256.97 231,198.45 61.19 8,159.95 19,039.87
2002 1,862,047 224,283.53 26,506.24 242,634.00 64.22 8,563.55 19,981.62
2003 2,043,361 246,122.81 29,087.24 266,260.14 70.47 9,397.42 21,927.31
2004 2,311,746 278,449.75 32,907.70 301,232.00 79.72 10,631.72 24,807.34
2005 2,916,517 351,294.45 41,516.62 380,036.72 100.58 13,413.06 31,297.14
2006 3,519,477 423,921.01 50,099.76 458,605.45 121.37 16,186.07 37,767.51
2007 4,216,809 454,464.13 51,680.36 500,602.24 20.29 16,424.31 38,323.39
2008 4,917,492 485,154.07 53,268.57 542,800.92 23.66 16,663.69 38,881.95
2009 5,010,116 489,210.97 53,478.51 548,379.16 24.11 16,695.34 38,955.79
2010 5,914,139 528,807.19 55,527.62 602,823.96 28.46 17,004.19 39,676.44
2011 6,062,778 535,317.60 55,864.53 611,775.76 29.18 17,054.97 39,794.93
2012 6,278,516 544,766.90 56,353.53 624,768.55 30.21 17,128.67 39,966.90
2013 6,580,772 558,005.74 57,038.64 642,971.97 31.67 17,231.94 40,207.85
2014 6,879,442 571,087.46 57,715.62 660,959.33 33.11 17,333.97 40,445.94
2015 7,166,910 583,678.56 58,367.21 678,272.09 34.49 17,432.18 40,675.10
2016 7,332,167 590,916.83 58,741.79 688,224.71 35.28 17,488.64 40,806.83
2017 7,504,984 598,486.19 59,133.50 698,632.58 36.12 17,547.68 40,944.59
2018 7,675,209 605,942.07 59,519.35 708,884.41 36.93 17,605.84 41,080.29
2019 7,847,423 613,485.05 59,909.69 719,256.01 37.76 17,664.67 41,217.57
2020 8,036,859 621,782.33 60,339.08 730,664.77 38.67 17,729.39 41,368.58
2021 8,245,238 625,204.96 60,521.62 736,711.42 3.97 17,740.41 41,394.30
2022 8,474,455 628,969.85 60,722.41 743,362.73 4.08 17,752.54 41,422.59
2023 8,726,594 633,111.23 60,943.29 750,679.17 4.20 17,765.87 41,453.70
2024 9,003,947 637,666.75 61,186.25 758,727.25 4.33 17,780.54 41,487.93
2025 9,309,035 638,167.86 61,212.97 759,699.40 0.90 17,796.68 41,525.58
2026 9,644,632 638,719.08 61,242.37 760,768.76 0.93 17,782.22 41,491.86
2027 10,013,788 639,325.42 61,274.71 761,945.06 0.96 17,783.19 41,494.12
2028 10,419,860 639,992.39 61,310.28 763,238.99 1.00 17,784.26 41,496.61
2029 10,866,540 640,726.06 61,349.41 764,662.31 1.05 17,785.44 41,499.35
2030 11,357,887 641,533.10 61,392.45 766,227.96 1.09 17,786.73 41,502.36
BAU 1999
1999 1,626,569 195,920.21 23,154.21 211,950.04 56.09 7,480.59 17,454.71
2000 1,704,717 205,333.16 24,266.65 222,133.14 58.79 7,839.99 18,293.32
2001 1,774,287 213,712.85 25,256.97 231,198.45 61.19 8,159.95 19,039.87
2002 1,862,047 224,283.53 26,506.24 242,634.00 64.22 8,563.55 19,981.62
2003 2,043,361 246,122.81 29,087.24 266,260.14 70.47 9,397.42 21,927.31
2004 2,311,746 278,449.75 32,907.70 301,232.00 79.72 10,631.72 24,807.34
2005 2,916,517 351,294.45 41,516.62 380,036.72 100.58 13,413.06 31,297.14
2006 3,519,477 423,921.01 50,099.76 458,605.45 121.37 16,186.07 37,767.51
2007 4,216,809 507,914.59 60,026.27 549,471.24 145.42 19,393.10 45,250.57
2008 4,917,492 592,311.94 70,000.50 640,773.82 169.59 22,615.55 52,769.61
2009 5,010,116 603,468.41 71,318.99 652,843.10 172.78 23,041.52 53,763.55
2010 5,914,139 712,358.01 84,187.76 770,641.85 203.96 27,199.12 63,464.62
2011 6,062,778 730,261.62 86,303.65 790,010.30 209.08 27,882.72 65,059.67
2012 6,278,516 756,247.20 89,374.67 818,121.97 216.52 28,874.89 67,374.75
2013 6,580,772 792,654.03 93,677.29 857,507.54 226.95 30,264.97 70,618.27
2014 6,879,442 828,628.76 97,928.85 896,425.66 237.25 31,638.55 73,823.29
2015 7,166,910 863,254.28 102,020.96 933,884.17 247.16 32,960.62 76,908.11
2016 7,332,167 883,159.53 104,373.40 955,418.03 252.86 33,720.64 78,681.49
2017 7,504,984 903,975.27 106,833.44 977,936.88 258.82 34,515.42 80,535.98
2018 7,675,209 924,478.92 109,256.60 1,000,118.10 264.69 35,298.29 82,362.67
2019 7,847,423 945,222.12 111,708.07 1,022,558.48 270.63 36,090.30 84,210.70
2020 8,036,859 968,039.65 114,404.69 1,047,242.89 277.16 36,961.51 86,243.53
2021 8,245,238 993,138.92 117,370.96 1,074,395.74 284.35 37,919.85 88,479.65
2022 8,474,455 1,020,748.13 120,633.87 1,104,263.89 292.25 38,974.02 90,939.38
2023 8,726,594 1,051,118.26 124,223.07 1,137,118.84 300.95 40,133.61 93,645.08
2024 9,003,947 1,084,525.39 128,171.18 1,173,259.29 310.51 41,409.15 96,621.35
2025 9,309,035 1,121,273.25 132,514.11 1,213,013.79 321.03 42,812.25 99,895.25
2026 9,644,632 1,161,695.89 137,291.33 1,256,743.73 332.61 44,355.66 103,496.54
2027 10,013,788 1,206,160.79 142,546.27 1,304,846.67 345.34 46,053.41 107,457.96
2028 10,419,860 1,255,072.18 148,326.71 1,357,759.90 359.34 47,920.94 111,815.52
2029 10,866,540 1,308,874.71 154,685.19 1,415,964.46 374.75 49,975.22 116,608.84
2030 11,357,887 1,368,057.49 161,679.52 1,479,989.47 391.69 52,234.92 121,881.49
119
Just Euro 2
1999 1,626,569 195,920.21 23,154.21 211,950.04 56.09 7,480.59 17,454.71
2000 1,704,717 205,333.16 24,266.65 222,133.14 58.79 7,839.99 18,293.32
2001 1,774,287 213,712.85 25,256.97 231,198.45 61.19 8,159.95 19,039.87
2002 1,862,047 224,283.53 26,506.24 242,634.00 64.22 8,563.55 19,981.62
2003 2,043,361 246,122.81 29,087.24 266,260.14 70.47 9,397.42 21,927.31
2004 2,311,746 278,449.75 32,907.70 301,232.00 79.72 10,631.72 24,807.34
2005 2,916,517 351,294.45 41,516.62 380,036.72 100.58 13,413.06 31,297.14
2006 3,519,477 423,921.01 50,099.76 458,605.45 121.37 16,186.07 37,767.51
2007 4,216,809 454,464.13 51,680.36 500,602.24 20.29 16,424.31 38,323.39
2008 4,917,492 485,154.07 53,268.57 542,800.92 23.66 16,663.69 38,881.95
2009 5,010,116 489,210.97 53,478.51 548,379.16 24.11 16,695.34 38,955.79
2010 5,914,139 528,807.19 55,527.62 602,823.96 28.46 17,004.19 39,676.44
2011 6,062,778 535,317.60 55,864.53 611,775.76 29.18 17,054.97 39,794.93
2012 6,278,516 544,766.90 56,353.53 624,768.55 30.21 17,128.67 39,966.90
2013 6,580,772 558,005.74 57,038.64 642,971.97 31.67 17,231.94 40,207.85
2014 6,879,442 571,087.46 57,715.62 660,959.33 33.11 17,333.97 40,445.94
2015 7,166,910 583,678.56 58,367.21 678,272.09 34.49 17,432.18 40,675.10
2016 7,332,167 590,916.83 58,741.79 688,224.71 35.28 17,488.64 40,806.83
2017 7,504,984 598,486.19 59,133.50 698,632.58 36.12 17,547.68 40,944.59
2018 7,675,209 605,942.07 59,519.35 708,884.41 36.93 17,605.84 41,080.29
2019 7,847,423 613,485.05 59,909.69 719,256.01 37.76 17,664.67 41,217.57
2020 8,036,859 621,782.33 60,339.08 730,664.77 38.67 17,729.39 41,368.58
2021 8,245,238 630,909.34 60,811.40 743,214.41 39.68 17,800.58 41,534.70
2022 8,474,455 640,949.05 61,330.96 757,019.01 40.78 17,878.89 41,717.42
2023 8,726,594 651,992.73 61,902.47 772,204.08 41.99 17,965.03 41,918.41
2024 9,003,947 664,140.78 62,531.13 788,907.65 43.33 18,059.79 42,139.51
2025 9,309,035 677,503.64 63,222.66 807,281.57 44.80 18,164.02 42,382.71
2026 9,644,632 692,202.78 63,983.34 827,492.89 46.41 18,278.67 42,650.24
2027 10,013,788 708,371.84 64,820.09 849,725.34 48.19 18,404.79 42,944.51
2028 10,419,860 726,157.80 65,740.51 874,181.04 50.14 18,543.52 43,268.22
2029 10,866,540 745,722.35 66,752.98 901,082.31 52.29 18,696.13 43,624.29
2030 11,357,887 767,243.37 67,866.69 930,673.70 54.66 18,863.99 44,015.97
0
Just Euro 4
1999 1,626,569 195,920.21 23,154.21 211,950.04 56.09 7,480.59 17,454.71
2000 1,704,717 205,333.16 24,266.65 222,133.14 58.79 7,839.99 18,293.32
2001 1,774,287 213,712.85 25,256.97 231,198.45 61.19 8,159.95 19,039.87
2002 1,862,047 224,283.53 26,506.24 242,634.00 64.22 8,563.55 19,981.62
2003 2,043,361 246,122.81 29,087.24 266,260.14 70.47 9,397.42 21,927.31
2004 2,311,746 278,449.75 32,907.70 301,232.00 79.72 10,631.72 24,807.34
2005 2,916,517 351,294.45 41,516.62 380,036.72 100.58 13,413.06 31,297.14
2006 3,519,477 423,921.01 50,099.76 458,605.45 121.37 16,186.07 37,767.51
2007 4,216,809 454,464.13 51,680.36 500,602.24 20.29 16,424.31 38,323.39
2008 4,917,492 485,154.07 53,268.57 542,800.92 23.66 16,663.69 38,881.95
2009 5,010,116 489,210.97 53,478.51 548,379.16 24.11 16,695.34 38,955.79
2010 5,914,139 528,807.19 55,527.62 602,823.96 28.46 17,004.19 39,676.44
2011 6,062,778 535,317.60 55,864.53 611,775.76 29.18 17,054.97 39,794.93
2012 6,278,516 544,766.90 56,353.53 624,768.55 30.21 17,128.67 39,966.90
2013 6,580,772 558,005.74 57,038.64 642,971.97 31.67 17,231.94 40,207.85
2014 6,879,442 571,087.46 57,715.62 660,959.33 33.11 17,333.97 40,445.94
2015 7,166,910 583,678.56 58,367.21 678,272.09 34.49 17,432.18 40,675.10
2016 7,332,167 590,916.83 58,741.79 688,224.71 35.28 17,488.64 40,806.83
2017 7,504,984 598,486.19 59,133.50 698,632.58 36.12 17,547.68 40,944.59
2018 7,675,209 605,942.07 59,519.35 708,884.41 36.93 17,605.84 41,080.29
2019 7,847,423 613,485.05 59,909.69 719,256.01 37.76 17,664.67 41,217.57
2020 8,036,859 621,782.33 60,339.08 730,664.77 38.67 17,729.39 41,368.58
2021 8,245,238 625,204.96 60,521.62 736,711.42 3.97 17,740.41 41,394.30
2022 8,474,455 628,969.85 60,722.41 743,362.73 4.08 17,752.54 41,422.59
2023 8,726,594 633,111.23 60,943.29 750,679.17 4.20 17,765.87 41,453.70
2024 9,003,947 637,666.75 61,186.25 758,727.25 4.33 17,780.54 41,487.93
2025 9,309,035 642,677.82 61,453.51 767,580.14 4.48 17,796.68 41,525.58
2026 9,644,632 648,190.00 61,747.49 777,318.32 4.64 17,814.43 41,566.99
2027 10,013,788 654,253.40 62,070.87 788,030.32 4.82 17,833.95 41,612.55
2028 10,419,860 660,923.13 62,426.59 799,813.52 5.01 17,855.43 41,662.66
2029 10,866,540 668,259.84 62,817.88 812,775.04 5.23 17,879.05 41,717.79
2030 11,357,887 676,330.22 63,248.30 827,032.71 5.47 17,905.04 41,778.42
120
Just Euro 6
1999 1,626,569 195,920.21 23,154.21 211,950.04 56.09 7,480.59 17,454.71
2000 1,704,717 205,333.16 24,266.65 222,133.14 58.79 7,839.99 18,293.32
2001 1,774,287 213,712.85 25,256.97 231,198.45 61.19 8,159.95 19,039.87
2002 1,862,047 224,283.53 26,506.24 242,634.00 64.22 8,563.55 19,981.62
2003 2,043,361 246,122.81 29,087.24 266,260.14 70.47 9,397.42 21,927.31
2004 2,311,746 278,449.75 32,907.70 301,232.00 79.72 10,631.72 24,807.34
2005 2,916,517 351,294.45 41,516.62 380,036.72 100.58 13,413.06 31,297.14
2006 3,519,477 423,921.01 50,099.76 458,605.45 121.37 16,186.07 37,767.51
2007 4,216,809 454,464.13 51,680.36 500,602.24 20.29 16,424.31 38,323.39
2008 4,917,492 485,154.07 53,268.57 542,800.92 23.66 16,663.69 38,881.95
2009 5,010,116 489,210.97 53,478.51 548,379.16 24.11 16,695.34 38,955.79
2010 5,914,139 528,807.19 55,527.62 602,823.96 28.46 17,004.19 39,676.44
2011 6,062,778 535,317.60 55,864.53 611,775.76 29.18 17,054.97 39,794.93
2012 6,278,516 544,766.90 56,353.53 624,768.55 30.21 17,128.67 39,966.90
2013 6,580,772 558,005.74 57,038.64 642,971.97 31.67 17,231.94 40,207.85
2014 6,879,442 571,087.46 57,715.62 660,959.33 33.11 17,333.97 40,445.94
2015 7,166,910 583,678.56 58,367.21 678,272.09 34.49 17,432.18 40,675.10
2016 7,332,167 590,916.83 58,741.79 688,224.71 35.28 17,488.64 40,806.83
2017 7,504,984 598,486.19 59,133.50 698,632.58 36.12 17,547.68 40,944.59
2018 7,675,209 605,942.07 59,519.35 708,884.41 36.93 17,605.84 41,080.29
2019 7,847,423 613,485.05 59,909.69 719,256.01 37.76 17,664.67 41,217.57
2020 8,036,859 621,782.33 60,339.08 730,664.77 38.67 17,729.39 41,368.58
2021 8,245,238 625,204.96 60,521.62 736,711.42 3.97 17,740.41 41,394.30
2022 8,474,455 628,969.85 60,722.41 743,362.73 4.08 17,752.54 41,422.59
2023 8,726,594 633,111.23 60,943.29 750,679.17 4.20 17,765.87 41,453.70
2024 9,003,947 637,666.75 61,186.25 758,727.25 4.33 17,780.54 41,487.93
2025 9,309,035 638,167.86 61,212.97 759,699.40 0.90 17,781.34 41,489.80
2026 9,644,632 638,719.08 61,242.37 760,768.76 0.93 17,782.22 41,491.86
2027 10,013,788 639,325.42 61,274.71 761,945.06 0.96 17,783.19 41,494.12
2028 10,419,860 639,992.39 61,310.28 763,238.99 1.00 17,784.26 41,496.61
2029 10,866,540 640,726.06 61,349.41 764,662.31 1.05 17,785.44 41,499.35
2030 11,357,887 641,533.10 61,392.45 766,227.96 1.09 17,786.73 41,502.36
EMISSION LOAD 2030 3,103,377.39

Year CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
1999 3,103,377.39 435,060.44 550,486.28 130.26 22,147.12 51,676.61
2000 3,294,296.92 462,953.66 569,356.10 134.47 23,026.90 53,729.44
2001 3,581,946.35 506,296.94 587,003.98 138.25 24,026.62 56,062.12
2002 3,985,988.22 567,223.64 609,513.47 142.95 25,352.20 59,155.14
2003 4,545,178.73 648,212.84 657,307.35 152.98 27,635.10 64,481.91
2004 5,294,314.91 757,826.20 717,325.95 165.66 30,598.47 71,396.44
2005 6,300,985.56 904,611.81 828,738.74 191.10 35,646.48 83,175.13
2006 7,186,193.68 1,032,529.38 934,942.79 215.37 40,327.89 94,098.40
2007 7,483,828.27 1,075,149.96 1,001,220.85 39.48 41,220.82 96,181.91
2008 7,851,428.76 1,129,086.92 1,066,156.70 44.03 41,737.80 97,388.20
2009 8,180,862.58 1,179,531.71 1,099,883.52 46.09 42,322.27 98,751.97
2010 8,680,026.62 1,252,502.52 1,205,791.83 53.05 43,322.49 101,085.82
2011 9,115,619.55 1,319,034.84 1,263,854.50 56.25 44,031.24 102,739.57
2012 9,534,402.46 1,382,959.36 1,305,171.47 58.90 44,615.56 104,102.96
2013 10,005,322.98 1,454,397.10 1,369,791.03 62.71 45,325.56 105,759.64
2014 10,149,667.22 1,489,380.84 1,421,855.27 66.24 46,004.09 107,342.89
2015 10,279,191.21 1,520,679.59 1,470,907.51 69.52 46,586.50 108,701.83
2016 10,443,915.91 1,561,961.68 1,527,723.12 73.04 47,341.55 110,463.62
2017 10,599,257.38 1,599,985.01 1,597,328.38 77.00 48,096.91 112,226.12
2018 10,769,185.18 1,642,071.40 1,667,464.81 81.05 48,892.02 114,081.37
2019 10,933,661.04 1,684,352.93 1,727,010.61 80.87 49,587.15 115,703.34
2020 11,114,584.48 1,730,862.60 1,792,511.00 84.69 50,351.79 117,487.51
2021 11,296,485.27 1,780,619.18 1,835,259.39 24.38 46,301.05 108,035.78
2022 11,496,576.13 1,835,351.43 1,882,282.62 25.92 46,533.89 108,579.08
2023 11,716,676.08 1,895,556.89 1,934,008.17 27.60 46,790.02 109,176.71
2024 10,107,651.22 1,940,375.61 1,990,049.99 9.80 47,025.44 109,726.03
2025 10,255,070.70 1,988,137.30 2,015,072.36 4.10 47,171.34 110,066.47
2026 10,417,232.13 2,040,575.73 2,038,477.86 4.39 47,299.63 110,365.81
2027 10,595,609.70 2,098,258.01 2,064,223.90 4.71 47,457.62 110,734.45
2028 10,791,825.02 2,161,708.51 2,092,544.55 5.05 47,631.41 111,139.95
2029 11,007,661.88 2,231,504.06 2,123,697.27 5.44 47,822.57 111,586.00
2030 11,245,082.43 2,308,279.17 2,157,965.26 5.86 48,032.85 112,076.66
121
BAU 241% 399% 279% -96% 109% 109%
Year CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
1999 3,103,377.39 435,060.44 550,486.28 130.26 22,147.12 51,676.61
2000 3,294,296.92 462,953.66 569,356.10 134.47 23,026.90 53,729.44
2001 3,581,946.35 506,296.94 587,003.98 138.25 24,026.62 56,062.12
2002 3,985,988.22 567,223.64 609,513.47 142.95 25,352.20 59,155.14
2003 4,545,178.73 648,212.84 657,307.35 152.98 27,635.10 64,481.91
2004 5,294,314.91 757,826.20 717,325.95 165.66 30,598.47 71,396.44
2005 6,300,985.56 904,611.81 828,738.74 191.10 35,646.48 83,175.13
2006 7,186,193.68 1,032,529.38 934,942.79 215.37 40,327.89 94,098.40
2007 8,276,527.30 1,184,145.66 1,073,351.99 245.44 46,113.09 107,597.21
2008 9,377,385.85 1,350,838.19 1,187,000.51 273.00 51,603.09 120,407.21
2009 10,494,990.14 1,514,265.45 1,241,801.31 282.23 54,791.91 127,847.78
2010 12,084,461.52 1,748,310.21 1,423,813.87 324.84 63,073.65 147,171.84
2011 13,487,704.42 1,957,145.72 1,504,670.13 340.98 67,656.14 157,864.32
2012 14,834,277.82 2,158,162.51 1,570,445.58 353.38 71,661.74 167,210.72
2013 16,318,973.91 2,380,631.80 1,665,352.65 373.55 76,904.43 179,443.68
2014 17,434,618.82 2,544,293.00 1,758,358.36 393.59 81,463.33 190,081.11
2015 18,414,408.01 2,689,051.81 1,843,368.73 412.45 85,627.91 199,798.46
2016 19,707,556.67 2,879,931.96 1,934,807.29 431.52 90,383.23 210,894.19
2017 20,875,352.10 3,052,870.95 2,037,021.40 454.38 95,395.36 222,589.18
2018 22,167,772.11 3,244,588.48 2,141,158.60 477.29 100,638.34 234,822.80
2019 23,468,791.62 3,439,539.60 2,232,108.64 497.13 105,507.77 246,184.80
2020 24,899,913.08 3,653,985.83 2,332,153.69 518.96 110,864.15 258,683.01
2021 26,474,146.69 3,889,876.68 2,442,203.24 542.97 116,756.16 272,431.04
2022 28,205,803.65 4,149,356.62 2,563,257.75 569.39 123,237.37 287,553.86
2023 30,110,626.32 4,434,784.55 2,696,417.70 598.44 130,366.70 304,188.98
2024 32,205,931.25 4,748,755.28 2,842,893.66 630.40 138,208.97 322,487.60
2025 34,510,766.67 5,094,123.08 3,004,017.21 665.56 146,835.47 342,616.09
2026 37,046,085.64 5,474,027.66 3,181,253.11 704.23 156,324.61 364,757.42
2027 39,834,936.50 5,891,922.70 3,376,212.60 746.77 166,762.67 389,112.89
2028 42,902,672.44 6,351,607.24 3,590,668.04 793.56 178,244.53 415,903.91
2029 46,277,181.99 6,857,260.23 3,826,569.03 845.03 190,874.58 445,374.03
2030 49,989,142.48 7,413,478.53 4,086,060.12 901.65 204,767.64 477,791.15
1417% 1501% 618% 571% 789% 789%
Euro 2 CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
1999 3,103,377.39 435,060.44 550,486.28 130.26 22,147.12 51,676.61
2000 3,294,296.92 462,953.66 569,356.10 134.47 23,026.90 53,729.44
2001 3,581,946.35 506,296.94 587,003.98 138.25 24,026.62 56,062.12
2002 3,985,988.22 567,223.64 609,513.47 142.95 25,352.20 59,155.14
2003 4,545,178.73 648,212.84 657,307.35 152.98 27,635.10 64,481.91
2004 5,294,314.91 757,826.20 717,325.95 165.66 30,598.47 71,396.44
2005 6,300,985.56 904,611.81 828,738.74 191.10 35,646.48 83,175.13
2006 7,186,193.68 1,032,529.38 934,942.79 215.37 40,327.89 94,098.40
2007 7,483,828.27 1,075,149.96 995,037.51 39.48 41,220.82 96,181.91
2008 7,851,428.76 1,129,086.92 1,060,982.85 44.03 41,737.80 97,388.20
2009 8,180,862.58 1,179,531.71 1,091,253.75 46.09 42,322.27 98,751.97
2010 8,680,026.62 1,252,502.52 1,179,932.13 53.05 43,322.49 101,085.82
2011 9,115,619.55 1,319,034.84 1,238,693.64 56.25 44,031.24 102,739.57
2012 9,534,402.46 1,382,959.36 1,300,003.65 58.90 44,615.56 104,102.96
2013 10,005,322.98 1,454,397.10 1,348,399.41 62.71 45,325.56 105,759.64
2014 10,345,058.04 1,505,361.55 1,406,476.14 66.24 46,002.35 107,338.82
2015 10,649,606.10 1,550,975.25 1,462,677.50 69.52 46,583.20 108,694.12
2016 11,046,225.68 1,611,223.66 1,516,477.97 73.04 47,336.18 110,451.09
2017 11,411,551.29 1,666,421.27 1,579,795.77 77.00 48,089.67 112,209.22
2018 11,815,685.16 1,727,663.00 1,659,238.69 81.05 48,882.68 114,059.59
2019 12,230,015.89 1,790,678.65 1,738,415.74 84.68 49,577.05 115,679.79
2020 12,685,779.69 1,859,995.85 1,810,959.62 88.68 50,340.86 117,462.00
2021 13,187,119.87 1,936,244.78 1,890,757.89 93.08 51,181.04 119,422.43
2022 13,738,594.06 2,020,118.60 1,978,535.98 97.92 52,105.24 121,578.90
2023 14,345,215.68 2,112,379.80 2,075,091.89 103.25 53,121.87 123,951.02
2024 15,012,499.45 2,213,867.12 2,181,303.39 109.10 54,240.15 126,560.36
2025 15,746,511.61 2,325,503.17 2,298,136.03 115.54 55,470.27 129,430.62
2026 16,553,924.98 2,448,302.83 2,426,651.95 122.63 56,823.39 132,587.92
2027 17,442,079.68 2,583,382.45 2,568,019.45 130.42 58,311.83 136,060.94
2028 18,419,049.86 2,731,970.04 2,723,523.70 139.00 59,949.11 139,881.27
2029 19,493,717.05 2,895,416.39 2,894,578.38 148.43 61,750.13 144,083.63
2030 20,675,850.97 3,075,207.37 3,082,738.53 158.80 63,731.24 148,706.22
122
Euro 3/4 CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
1999 3,103,377.39 435,060.44 550,486.28 130.26 22,147.12 51,676.61
2000 3,294,296.92 462,953.66 569,356.10 134.47 23,026.90 53,729.44
2001 3,581,946.35 506,296.94 587,003.98 138.25 24,026.62 56,062.12
2002 3,985,988.22 567,223.64 609,513.47 142.95 25,352.20 59,155.14
2003 4,545,178.73 648,212.84 657,307.35 152.98 27,635.10 64,481.91
2004 5,294,314.91 757,826.20 717,325.95 165.66 30,598.47 71,396.44
2005 6,300,985.56 904,611.81 828,738.74 191.10 35,646.48 83,175.13
2006 7,186,193.68 1,032,529.38 934,942.79 215.37 40,327.89 94,098.40
2007 7,483,828.27 1,075,149.96 1,001,220.85 39.48 41,220.82 96,181.91
2008 7,851,428.76 1,129,086.92 1,066,156.70 44.03 41,737.80 97,388.20
2009 8,180,862.58 1,179,531.71 1,099,883.52 46.09 42,322.27 98,751.97
2010 8,680,026.62 1,252,502.52 1,205,791.83 53.05 43,322.49 101,085.82
2011 9,115,619.55 1,319,034.84 1,263,854.50 56.25 44,031.24 102,739.57
2012 9,534,402.46 1,382,959.36 1,305,171.47 58.90 44,615.56 104,102.96
2013 10,005,322.98 1,454,397.10 1,369,791.03 62.71 45,325.56 105,759.64
2014 10,149,667.22 1,489,380.84 1,421,855.27 66.24 46,004.09 107,342.89
2015 10,279,191.21 1,520,679.59 1,470,907.51 69.52 46,586.50 108,701.83
2016 10,443,915.91 1,561,961.68 1,527,723.12 73.04 47,341.55 110,463.62
2017 10,599,257.38 1,599,985.01 1,597,328.38 77.00 48,096.91 112,226.12
2018 10,769,185.18 1,642,071.40 1,667,464.81 81.05 48,892.02 114,081.37
2019 10,933,661.04 1,684,352.93 1,727,010.61 80.87 49,587.15 115,703.34
2020 11,114,584.48 1,730,862.60 1,792,511.00 84.69 50,351.79 117,487.51
2021 11,296,485.27 1,780,619.18 1,835,259.39 24.38 46,301.05 108,035.78
2022 11,496,576.13 1,835,351.43 1,882,282.62 25.92 46,533.89 108,579.08
2023 11,716,676.08 1,895,556.89 1,934,008.17 27.60 46,790.02 109,176.71
2024 11,958,786.02 1,961,782.91 1,990,906.28 29.46 47,071.76 109,834.10
2025 12,225,106.95 2,034,631.52 2,053,494.20 31.50 47,381.67 110,557.23
2026 12,518,059.99 2,114,765.00 2,122,340.91 33.74 47,722.57 111,352.67
2027 12,840,308.32 2,202,911.82 2,198,072.29 36.21 48,097.57 112,227.66
2028 13,194,781.49 2,299,873.32 2,281,376.81 38.92 48,510.06 113,190.14
2029 13,584,701.97 2,406,530.98 2,373,011.78 41.91 48,963.81 114,248.88
2030 14,013,614.50 2,523,854.40 2,473,810.25 45.20 49,462.92 115,413.49
325% 445% 334% -66% 115% 115%
Euro 6 CO HC NOX SOX PM10 PM2.5
1999 3,103,377.39 435,060.44 550,486.28 130.26 22,147.12 51,676.61
2000 3,294,296.92 462,953.66 569,356.10 134.47 23,026.90 53,729.44
2001 3,581,946.35 506,296.94 587,003.98 138.25 24,026.62 56,062.12
2002 3,985,988.22 567,223.64 609,513.47 142.95 25,352.20 59,155.14
2003 4,545,178.73 648,212.84 657,307.35 152.98 27,635.10 64,481.91
2004 5,294,314.91 757,826.20 717,325.95 165.66 30,598.47 71,396.44
2005 6,300,985.56 904,611.81 828,738.74 191.10 35,646.48 83,175.13
2006 7,186,193.68 1,032,529.38 934,942.79 215.37 40,327.89 94,098.40
2007 7,483,828.27 1,075,149.96 1,001,220.85 39.48 41,160.71 96,041.65
2008 7,851,428.76 1,129,086.92 1,066,156.70 44.03 41,677.69 97,247.94
2009 8,180,862.58 1,179,531.71 1,099,883.52 46.09 42,262.16 98,611.71
2010 8,680,026.62 1,252,502.52 1,205,791.83 53.05 43,262.38 100,945.56
2011 9,115,619.55 1,319,034.84 1,263,854.50 56.25 43,971.13 102,599.31
2012 9,534,402.46 1,382,959.36 1,305,171.47 58.90 44,555.44 103,962.70
2013 10,005,322.98 1,454,397.10 1,369,791.03 62.71 45,265.45 105,619.38
2014 10,149,667.22 1,489,380.84 1,421,855.27 66.24 46,004.09 107,342.89
2015 10,279,191.21 1,520,679.59 1,470,907.51 69.52 46,586.50 108,701.83
2016 10,443,915.91 1,561,961.68 1,527,723.12 73.04 47,341.55 110,463.62
2017 10,599,257.38 1,599,985.01 1,597,328.38 77.00 48,096.91 112,226.12
2018 10,769,185.18 1,642,071.40 1,667,464.81 81.05 48,892.02 114,081.37
2019 10,933,661.04 1,684,352.93 1,727,010.61 80.87 49,587.15 115,703.34
2020 11,114,584.48 1,730,862.60 1,792,511.00 84.69 50,351.79 117,487.51
2021 11,296,485.27 1,780,619.18 1,835,259.39 24.38 46,301.05 108,035.78
2022 11,496,576.13 1,835,351.43 1,882,282.62 25.92 46,533.89 108,579.08
2023 11,716,676.08 1,895,556.89 1,934,008.17 27.60 46,790.02 109,176.71
2024 10,107,651.22 1,940,375.61 1,990,049.99 9.80 47,025.44 109,726.03
2025 10,255,070.70 1,988,137.30 2,015,072.36 4.10 47,156.01 110,030.69
2026 10,417,232.13 2,040,575.73 2,038,477.86 4.39 47,299.63 110,365.81
2027 10,595,609.70 2,098,258.01 2,064,223.90 4.71 47,457.62 110,734.45
2028 10,791,825.02 2,161,708.51 2,092,544.55 5.05 47,631.41 111,139.95
2029 11,007,661.88 2,231,504.06 2,123,697.27 5.44 47,822.57 111,586.00
2030 11,245,082.43 2,308,279.17 2,157,965.26 5.86 48,032.85 112,076.66
Source: Author calculation, 2020.
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Annotation Vehicle Emission Standard in Indonesia 2020

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Adoption of Euro 4/IV Standard

With preparation to move to Euro 6/VI

First draft, December 2019 Final report, November 2020

List of Table 3.3.2.3. Electrified Vehicle 42

Table 1. Roadmap Auto-technology development

Graph 1 Trend of Total Population of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia

2. Emission Load and Fuel Consumption Load

3. Effectiveness on Emission Reduction base on Existing and Proposed Policy

4. Cost Benefit Analysis on Low Emission Vehicle

5. Point of No-return to Avoid Economic Crisis

Jakarta, November 2020

2.1. The Trend of Vehicle Fleet

Graph 1. Trend of Total Population of Motor Vehicle in Indonesia (1949 – 2019)

2.2. Related Law and Regulation on Emission Control

2.2.1. National Act No 4/1982

2.2.2. Management of Mobile Sources

2.2.3. Management of Stationary Sources

2.2.4. Management of Area Sources

2.2.5. Act 16/2016 on Ratification of Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC

2.2.6. National Master Plan for Industry (RIPIN) 2015 – 2035)

Table 1. Roadmap Auto-technology development

2.2.7. Government Regulation No 73/2019

2.2.9. Presidential Regulation No. 55/2019

2.2.10. Ministry of Forestry Decree on Euro IV emission standard

27. MoEF Decree No. P.20/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/3/2017 supersedes previous regulations

2.2.11. Government Regulation No 41/1999

Air Pollution, Green-house Gas, and Health Effect

2.5. Ambient Air Quality

Graph 3. PM2.5 Concentration in Jakarta, 2018

2.6. Air Pollution and Pandemic Covid-19

2.7. Ambient Air Quality Standard and Monitoring

2.8. Emission Load

Graph 5. National Vehicular Source Apportionment – air pollution (ton/year)

Graph 6. Fuel share for motor vehicle.

2.9. Health Effect

Graph 9. BLL (Blood Lead Level) school-children in 8 cities/regencies:

Vehicular Emission Control Strategy

3.5. Control Strategy to Combat Air Pollution and Green-house Gas

3.6. Integrated Vehicle Emission Reduction Strategy

3.7.1. Implementation Euro 4/IV Standard

Graph 10. Total Selling Motor Vehicle in Indonesia

3.7.1.1.1. Lack on Fuel Quality, and Fuel Preference Anomaly

Graph 11. RON Regular Gasoline

Graph 12. The Sulfur Content in Regular Gasoline

3.7.1.1.2. Unfairness Fuel Pricing Policy

3.7.1.1.3. Too Many Fuel Types

3.7.1.1.4. Business Trick of Principal Vehicle Manufacturers

3.7.1.1.5. Purchasing power

3.7.2. The Challenges

Table 7. Comparison of FAME, Green Diesel Standalone, and Co-processing

Table 8. Timeline for Co-processing Refinery Trial - Pertamina

3.7.2.3. Electrified Vehicle

3.7.2.3.1. Jakarta, a prime-mover of urban e-mobility

3.8. Fiscal Incentive, A Trigger for Low Emission Vehicle

3.8.1. Emission Excise

112. Above mentioned proposed fiscal incentive/disincentive would be implemented as a

3.8.2. Government Commitment

3.8.3.1. Low Emission Vehicle