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MAE342 Lecture 24
MAE342 Lecture 24
Product Assurance
Space System Design, MAE 342, Princeton University
Robert Stengel
• Assembly, Integration,
and Verification
• Dependability
• Reliability
• Task Planning
• Quality Assurance
Copyright 2016 by Robert Stengel. All rights reserved. For educational use only.
http://www.princeton.edu/~stengel/MAE342.html 1
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Fortescue, Ch. 17 3
Manage Risk
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Classify Risk
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http://www.riskbusinessamericas.com/Public.IndustryRiskProfiles.aspx
Assess Risk
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http://www.riskbusinessamericas.com/Public.IndustryRiskProfiles.aspx
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Fortescue, Ch. 19 10
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Fortescue, Ch. 19 11
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Overlapping Issues
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Fortescue, Ch. 19
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Task Planning
Situation awareness
Decomposition and identification of communities
Development of strategy and tactics
Phase
Process Outcome
Objective Tactical Situation Situation
(short-term) Assessment Awareness
Strategic Comprehension Understanding
(long-term)
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13
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Elements of
Situation Awareness
• Perception
• Comprehension
• Projection
Endsley, 1995 15
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Important Dichotomies
in Planning
Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and
Threat (SWOT) Analysis “Knok-Knoks” and “Unk-
Unks”
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Program Management:
Gantt Chart
Project schedule
Task breakdown and dependency
Start, interim, and finish elements
Time elapsed, time to go
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-ilities
• Dependability
– Availability
– Maintainability
– Security
• Reliability
– Qualitative
– Quantitative
– Design or predicted
– Operational
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Parts Procurement
• Vendors’ track record
• Standardization
• Procurement systems
– Organization
– Documentation
• Substitution of less reliable
equivalents
• Out-of-date/specification parts
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Fortescue, Ch. 19 21
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Materials to Avoid
Fortescue, Ch. 19 22
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Fortescue, Ch. 19 23
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Fortescue, Ch. 19
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Product Assurance in
Manufacturing
• Controls and Records
• Training and certification
• Traceability
• Measurement and calibration
• Non-conformance control
• Alerts, handling, … margins
• Audits
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Fortescue, Ch. 19
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Non-Conformance Control
Fortescue, Ch. 19 26
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Fortescue, Ch. 19
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Reliability of a Component
If failure rate is constant,
R = e− λt
where failure rate is estimated as
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Failure Rate, λ
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Reliability Enhancement
• Use of redundancy
• Design diversity
• Limitation of failure effects
• De-rating of parts
• Radiation screening
• Handling/assembly controls
• Inspection/testing
Fortescue, Ch. 19 31
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Fortescue, Ch. 19 32
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Probability Distributions
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I
1 I
∑ Pr ( xi ) = N ∑ ni = 1
i=1 i=1
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∑ Pr ( x i ± Δx / 2 ) = 1
i =1 35
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Pr ( xi ± Δx / 2 )
pr ( xi ) =
Δx
I I ∞
∑ Pr ( xi ± Δx / 2 ) = ∑ pr ( xi ) Δx ⎯Δx→0
⎯⎯ → ∫ pr ( x ) dx = 1
I→∞
−∞
i=1 i=1
Pr ( x < X ) = pr ( x ) dx
X
∫
−∞
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Pr ( x < X ) = pr ( x ) dx
X
∫
−∞
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Properties of
Random Variables
• Mode
– Value of x for which pr(x) is maximum
• Median
– Value of x corresponding to 50th percentile
– Pr(x < median) = Pr(x ≥ median) = 0.5
• Mean
– Value of x corresponding to statistical average
• First moment of x = Expected value of x
“Force”
∞
x = E(x) = ∫ x pr ( x ) dx
−∞
“Moment arm” 38
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Expected Values
• Mean Value is the
first moment of x
∞
x = E(x) = ∫ x pr ( x ) dx
−∞
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Mean
x 1
( xmax + xmin )
xmax
x=∫ dx =
xmin ( xmax − xmin ) 2
Variance
If xmin = −xmax ! a
a
1 a 2 x3 a2
σx = ∫ x dx = =
2
2a − a 6a − a 3 40
40
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Variance
∞
E ⎡⎣( x − x ) ⎤⎦ = ∫ (x − x ) pr ( x ) dx = σ x2
2 2
−∞
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Experimental Determination of
Mean and Variance
Sample mean for N data points, x1, x2, ..., xN
N
∑x i
x= i =1 Histogram
N
Sample variance for same
data set
N
∑( x − x)
2
i
σ x2 = i =1
( N − 1)
Divisor is (N – 1) rather than N to
produce an unbiased estimate 43
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Log-Normal Distribution
Probability Density Function
• Variation in large
ensembles for which x > 0
• The logarithm of x is
Gaussian
• Replace x by xl in previous
equations
xl ! log x
−
( xl −xl ) Cumulative Probability Function
1 2σ l 2
pr(xl ) = e
σ l 2π
1⎛ x − xl ⎞
Pr(xl ) = ⎜ 1+ erf l
2⎝ σ l 2 ⎟⎠ 44
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Weibull Distribution
• Variation in life Probability Density Function
characteristics of parts or
components
• Variation in large
ensembles for which x > 0
pr(x) = ⎨ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢θ − x ⎥ ⎬ e
o o
θ −
⎩⎪ ⎣ o ⎦⎣ o⎦
x
⎭⎪
Cumulative Probability Function
−
( x−xo )b
(θ −xo )b
Pr(x) = 1− e
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Exponential Distribution
Probability Density Function
• Special case of Weibull
distribution, with b = 1, xo =
0, and x = t
• Time to failure of systems or
parts
• Modeling of independent
events that occur at a
constant average rate
Cumulative Probability Function
1 −t
pr(t) = e θ
θ
− tθ
Pr(t) = 1− e
λ = 1θ : failure rate
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Poisson Distribution
• Occurrence of isolated, Probability Mass Function
independent events whose
average rate is known
– Number of events can be
observed
– Number of non-events cannot be
observed
• Examples:
– Number of machine breakdowns
in a plant
– Number of errors in a drawing Cumulative Probability Function
e− λ y ri
pr(r = ri ) =
ri !
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Binomial Distribution
• The probability of r Probability Mass Function
successful outcomes in n
trials
• Examples: inspection of
parts, probability that a
system will operate correctly
⎛ n⎞ ⎛ n⎞
pr(r) = ⎜ ⎟ p rq n−r = ⎜ ⎟ p r (1− p)
n−r
⎝ r⎠ ⎝ r⎠
where
Cumulative Probability Function
⎛ n⎞ n!
⎜ ⎟=
⎝ ⎠
r r! ( − r)!
n
n = number of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure 48
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Confidence Level
• The probability that a probability
estimate is correct, e.g.,
“The likelihood of failure is 90%,
with a confidence level of 95%”
49
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1e+07
Number of Evaluations
Interval
Width
1e+05 2%
5%
10%
1e+03 20%
100%
1e+01
1e-06 1e-05 1e-04 0.001
1 0.01 0.1
0.5
Probability or (1 - Probability)
Binomial Distribution
Required number of trials depends on outcome
probability and desired confidence interval 50
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