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PD 480 07 R2 M Completion Report
PD 480 07 R2 M Completion Report
HOST GOVERNMENT:
The People’s Republic of China
EXECUTING AGENCY:
Research Institute of Forestry Information and Policy, CAF
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PROJECT NUMBER PD 480/07 REV.2 (M)
STARTING DATE March 1st, 2010
DURATION 29 months(from March 2010 to July 2012, the last five
months are the added time)
PROJECT COSTS ITTO US$ 263 520
Executing Agency US$ 147 468
Total US$ 410 988
THE ORDINAL NUMBER AND 2012 01/Project Completion Report
TYPE OF REPORT
IMPLEMENTING INSTITUTE
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Table of Contents
6. Lessons Learned.............................................................................................................
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Executive Summary
i)With the rapid development of economy and urbanization, China’s demand for wood
products is increasing dramatically and its potential is great in future. Meanwhile, along
with the progress of integrative global economy, Chinese wood products market has
become an important part of international wood products market. In addition, China is in a
critically transitional period, for forest sector, it is experiencing a historic shift from a focus
on timber production to ecological improvement. As the largest production and export
country of furniture, plywood and wooden flooring in the world, the gap between supply
and demand for timber is becoming bigger and bigger. In order to reach the balance
between supply and demand of wood products market, it is the most important task to get
clear understanding of the situation and future trend of supply and demand of wood
products market. In the context, the project will study the factors which influence domestic
consumption and export of tropical wood products in the new era and forecast the supply
and demand of tropical wood products in China in 2020.
ii)The specific objective of the project is to analyze the timber situation in China by 2020
with focus on tropical timber to increase market transparency in China. In order to
promote the development of international tropical forest product markets and satisfy
domestic market demand for tropical wood products, the project will study not only
demand, supply and production within the Chinese tropical forest product markets but
also the position of China's demand and imports within the global tropical forest product
markets. In order to acquire sufficient materials related to supply and demand of domestic
market, the project team will closely collaborate with relevant industrial associations. In
order to improve the forecasting accuracy, qualitative and quantitative methods will be
applied in the project, and forecasting model will be set up to ensure the objective,
accurate results. In addition, participatory method will be adopted in all project activities
and consultative mechanism will be carried out with stakeholders.
iii)Almost all project activities are carried out as planned. At the end, the project has
extended five more months to wait for the updating official data, make further effort in
revising for more concrete results.
iv)The research report entitled “Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in China
Towards 2020” is helpful for Chinese and foreign competent authorities, relevant industrial
societies and enterprises to have sufficient understanding of supply and demand of
China’s tropical forest product markets, thus they could have a basis to follow when they
implement macro management, formulate policies and make decisions. Meanwhile, the
project greatly enhanced the stakeholders’ understanding on the situation of Chinese
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tropical wood products market and its development trends in 2020. This will create better
conditions for achieving the balance between supply and demand, help domestic tropical
forest product producers and traders choose cooperative partners and make feasible
marketing strategies. Furthermore, the capacity of implementing institute has been further
enhanced through implementing the project, close relationship has been established
between implementing institute with related government authorities, some projects
focusing on tropical timber trade have been allocated to implementing institute to continue
collecting information and trade data on forest products.
v)When preparing the Project proposal, we had gone through a very through process of
literature search and surveys to gain insight into the changes in forest products market
over the past decade. Therefore, the Project had been adequately designed through the
correct definition of problems, the accurate identification of project objectives, and the
viable choice of implementation strategy. At the same time, we consulted different
stakeholders to solicit their contributions to the proposal, this ensure the Project is able to
create impacts to the right target beneficiaries. In addition, the executive agency through
previous projects in this field have established good working relationships with
government organs and other stakeholders, beneficiaries took active part in project
activities. All these contribute to the successful completion of the project.
vi)Through implementing the project, main lessons learned are summarized as below:
Firstly, as the manufacture and trade center of wood products in the world, it is of
significance to forecast demand and supply of wood products in China in foreseeable
future. Therefore, the project identification is of great importance. Secondly, collaboration
with stakeholders is very important throughout the project. Thirdly, the information
correspondents from key consumer provinces of tropical wood products played important
role in collecting data and market surveys. Fourthly, the international consultant played an
important role in framework design and finalization of project technical report. Fifthly, the
international workshop served as a platform for professionals and stakeholders to
exchange information in the field of wood product markets.
Since China plays an increasing important role in the global processing and trading chain
of tropical wood products, and the Chinese wood product market has a strong appeal to
outside world, it is suggested that ITTO should continuously support depth studies on
Chinese tropical wood market.
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1. Project identification
1.1 Context
It is a fact that the awareness of sustainable forest management, combating illegal logging
has been raising, people pay more attention to environmental protection. China has been
subjected to criticism and censure from some NGOs for its imports of great deal of timber,
especially tropical timber from foreign countries. Facing these challenges, Chinese
government take active part in international initiatives such as EU-FLEG to improve
marketing and distribution of tropical timber and timber product exports from sustainably
managed and legally harvested sources and which are legally traded. At the same time,
the guideline of developing forest resources in foreign countries is being established in
order to regulate overseas forest enterprises’ actions. In addition, forest certification
develops rapidly in China. The national standard of forest certification has been issued
and carried out pilot test in some regions in China.
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ii) Project location and relevant national policies
The project location is China. China is in a critically transitional period, for forest sector, it
is experiencing a historic shift from a focus on timber production to ecological
improvement. Forestry must meet not only the diversified demand of social for timber and
other wood products but also the need for ecological improvement and safeguarding
national ecological security in China. Ecological demand has become a priority of society
from forestry in China.
The Forestry Eleventh-Five Year Plan (2006-2010) indicates that China will continue to
implement NFPP, stopping commercial logging of natural forest located in upriver areas of
the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, reducing timber production in Northeast and
Inner-Mongolia state-owned forest areas. At the same time, the Forestry Eleventh-Five
Year Plan attaches importance to forestry industry. It also gives emphasis to the
harmonization of forest ecological system, forest industry system and forest culture
system.
Because of the long period needed for forest plantations to reach maturity and because
plantations in China cannot produce the preferred large diameter and high quality logs,
the country will still rely on imports to meet its demand for large diameter logs. To
encourage imports of raw materials, such as timber, the Chinese government has adopted
the measures to abolish or greatly lower import tariff. In addition, the policy of relaxing
import operation regulations has been developed for domestic enterprises undertaking
timber operation and foreign trade.
In China, the overall strategy to address imbalances in timber supply and demand is to
realize self-sufficiency in fiber timber and non-veneer type wood based panel in 2020,
even produce some surplus while, at the same time, relying on imports for high quality,
large-diameter timber especially hardwoods. The department in charge of forestry has
formulated medium and long-term plans to vigorously develop the building of fast-growing
plantation bases (note: this project was started on August 1st, 2002). At the same time, in
order to combat illegal logging and protect natural forests, Chinese government
formulated a system of domestic logging quota and the NFPP plan.
i) Origin
With the rapid development of economy and urbanization, China’s demand for wood
products is increasing dramatically and its potential is great in future. Meanwhile, along
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with the progress of integrative global economy, especially China’s joining in the WTO,
Chinese wood products market has become an important part of international wood
products market. In recent years, more and more international wood products
manufactures moved into China, forest industry developed rapidly in China. It is a fact that
China has become the international center of manufacture, consumption and trade of
wood products in the world.
Driven by both domestic consumption and export demand, the demand for timber
(especially log and sawnwood) increased sharply. Up to now, China is the largest log
import country in the world. Owing to continuously shortage of the domestic timber
especially tropical large-diameter hardwood, as well as increasing timber demand from
furniture and decoration industries, the demand for timber especially tropical hardwood
will increase steadily. In view of the important role that China plays in the global forest
product trades, it is necessary to forecast the supply and demand of Chinese tropical
wood products market.
In addition, more and more countries started to restrict or prohibit exporting tropical logs,
the voice combating illegal logging and trade is becoming stronger and stronger. It is
necessary for Chinese government to take effective measures to readjust the
development of forest industry in the context, and make great effort to reach the balance
between supply and demand of wood products market. In order to realize the objective, it
is the most important task to get clear understanding of the situation and future trend of
supply and demand of wood products market, so as to provide bases to the relevant
authorities for their decision making, as well as provide important market information to
ITTO member countries.
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At present, reliable and consistent data and information are not available on the future
demand and supply of tropical wood products market. Most of the existing forecasting
studies on wood demand and supply only touch upon the wood product demand through
domestic consumption, some driving factors such as demand for export have not been
taken into account. In addition, there were different data and information from different
stakeholders on the forest products market because of different definitions of the same
terms, repeated calculation etc. At the same time, lack of coordination and information
sharing among the key sectors has also affected the reliability, consistency and integrality
of the data and information on forest products market. Some stakeholders such as
producers, traders and exporters usually make wrong decisions because of having no
idea on demand and supply of tropical wood products.
All these have a negative impact on achieving the balance between demand and supply of
tropical wood products, in other words, obstructing the sustainable development of
tropical wood products market.
Lack of reliable and consistent data and information on production of tropical wood
products in China.
Lack of reliable and consistent data and information on consumption of tropical wood
products in China.
The specific objective of the project is to analyze the timber situation in China by 2020
with focus on tropical timber to increase market transparency in China.
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ii) Implementation strategy
In order to promote the development of international tropical forest product markets and
satisfy domestic market demand for tropical wood products, the project will study not only
demand, supply and production within the Chinese tropical forest product markets but
also the position of China's demand and imports within the global tropical forest product
markets. It will provide information to China’s domestic enterprises undertaking tropical
wood products trade, operation, manufacturing and processing. This will be done through
publishing periodical newsletter.
In order to acquire sufficient materials related to supply and demand of domestic market,
the project team will closely collaborate with relevant industrial associations (such as
China National Wood products Industry Association, China National Wood products
Trading Association, Chinese Association of Timber Circulation, Chinese Association of
Architecture Decoration, Chinese Association of Furniture and Chinese Association of
Paper-Making) and General Administration of Customs (GAC, the major source of import
and export statistical data). In addition, contacts and cooperation will be established with
the agencies of major producer and exporting countries set-up in China (including
embassies and trade promotion agencies) and with the industrial associations in China
and overseas.
In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, qualitative and quantitative methods will be
applied in the project, and forecasting model will be set up to ensure the objective,
accurate results of supply and demand in 2020.
In all activities of the project, participatory method will be adopted and consultative
mechanism will be carried out with stakeholders. It is necessary to ensure outputs more
practical, objective and feasible.
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order to collect materials. The risks of failure in this respect can be mitigated as the CAF
through previous projects in this field have established good working relationships with
relevant bodies.
3. Project Performance
(a) Specific objective
Output 1.1 Research report – Outlook on demand and supply situation of tropical wood
products in China in 2020
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forums been carried out, attending the XXIII IUFRO World
Congress in Seoul, August 2010; Visiting
CENTRAFOR of University of Washington, May
2010; Visiting Forest Products Laboratory of USA,
December 2011.
Output 1.2 Analysis report - Productive capacity of Chinese tropical wood processing
enterprises and the end uses of the imported tropical logs
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out questionnaire and
distribute it and get
feedback
1.3.2 Carry out 7 domestic Completed. 7 domestic investigations had been
investigations in main carried out in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai,
consumption areas Shenyang, Kunming, Harbin and Nanjing cities to
collect information and make market surveys. In
addition, we got feedback from Wuhan, Chendu,
Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Xian, Wulumuxi, Jinan and
Hefei cities through correspondents.
1.3.3 Write and translate the Completed.
report
1.3.4 Print and disseminate Completed. The analysis report on consumers’
the report preference on tropical wood products is available.
Output 1.4 Analysis report - Conflict issues and policy trends on China’s trading of
tropical wood products
Output 1.6 Publishing the China’s Forest Products Market Information in both Chinese
and English
(c) Schedule
The total amount of expenditure is US$ 263 520 from ITTO contribution. Overall project
budget were spent as planned.
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4. Project Outcome, Target Beneficiaries Involvement
i)The extent to which the project specific objective was achieved
The specific objective of the project is to analyze the timber situation in China by 2020
with focus on tropical timber to increase market transparency in China.
The project research report analyzed the timber situation in China with a focus on tropical
timber. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 presents information on China’s
forest resources. It includes forest area, inventory level, ownership data and the type and
category of China’s forest resources. It divides forests into natural and plantation forests
and describes tropical forests. Chapter 2 examines the production and consumption of
wood products in China. Historical trends are established from data collected on logs,
sawnwood, wood-based panels, veneers, wood flooring, wood furniture and wood chips.
Distinctions in the trends are made between tropical and non-tropical products. Chapter 3
examines international trade in wood products. The sources and destinations of products
from and to China are recorded. The analysis contains information on both value and
volume of trade activity. As in previous chapters, distinctions are drawn with respects to
tropical wood products trade activities. Chapter 4 introduces China’s timber consumption
and domestic supply situation in 2010. It then forecasts consumption to 2015 and 2020.
In Chapter 5 the forecast model for supply and demand for tropical wood products is
presented. The model was developed for the project and reviewed by experts in the field.
Chapter 6 presents policy recommendations in order to alleviate the conflicts between
supply and demand of tropical timber.
In order to complete the research report, major project activities and outputs included data
collection, analysis and preparation of interim reports, two separate analysis reports and
an investigation report, including the analysis reports on the productive capacity of
Chinese tropical wood processing enterprises and the end uses of the imported tropical
log were finalized and use to develop this final research report. Outreach activities
included publishing and disseminating China’s Forest Products Market Information, and
holding seminars and an international workshop, which are useful tools to increase
information transparency of China’s wood product markets. A newly-created forecasting
model for the supply and demand of tropical wood products in China, and questionnaires
for enterprises and consumers were developed for the project.
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Forest Products Market by the Year 2010”, the project had studied the factors which
influence domestic consumption and export of tropical wood products in the new era and
forecast the supply and demand of tropical wood products in China in 2020. The specific
objective had been achieved to great extent. The outputs of the project will not only
provide references to domestic authorities for making wood products market policies, but
also provide market information to ITTO producer and consumer countries for making
sound marketing strategies, which will help to facilitate close cooperation between China
and other ITTO member countries, and ultimately promote sustainable development of
international trade of tropical wood products.
Firstly, the research report entitled Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in
China Towards 2020 has been finished and disseminated, its content not only touching
upon the analysis of factors influencing tropical wood products supply and demand in
China, but also forecasting supply and demand trend in 2020 through data analysis and
forecasting model, providing feasible scenarios and suggestions on how to satisfy future
market demands and realize balance between supply and demand, which is helpful for
Chinese and foreign competent authorities, relevant industrial societies and enterprises
undertaking tropical forest product operation to have sufficient understanding of supply
and demand of China’s tropical forest product markets, thus they could have a basis to
follow when they implement macro management, formulate policies and make decisions.
Thirdly, after completion of the project, the capacity of the ITTO supported Tropical Forest
Product Information and Consultation Center of China has been further enhanced, its
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resource and information base is expanded, its links with the wood products sector in
China and in producer countries become closer and closer. Producers and traders at
home and abroad can timely understand the market situation of tropical wood products
through the newsletter “Chinese Wood products Market Information”.
The project team has been contacting with domestic beneficiaries, for example, by means
of telephone, emails, holding seminars etc, to know what they need and to provide
domestic and oversea wood products market information in multiple ways for their
reference to develop policies and coordinate production and marketing.
For overseas beneficiaries, the project team has been contacting them through field visits
or by telecommunications and to know international market information and related
policies, as well as their requirements.
During implementing the project, target beneficiaries and their participation are as
followings:
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Tropical wood products traders, including domestic traders and some
multinational corporations who are eager to access Chinese market, will mainly
participate in activity 1.1.4, 1.4.2 and 1.5.3.
Large domestic forest products markets which play an important role in tropical
wood products distribution, will mainly participate in activity 1.3.1, 1.3.2, 1.5.3
and 1.6.1.
End consumers of tropical wood products will mainly participate in activity 1.3.2.
Just as mentioned above, the outputs of the project will be useful for target beneficiaries,
for example, the research report is helpful for Chinese and foreign competent authorities,
relevant industrial societies and enterprises undertaking tropical forest product operation
to have sufficient understanding of supply and demand of China’s tropical forest product
markets, thus they could have a basis to follow when they implement macro management,
formulate policies and make decisions. The reference materials, including analysis reports,
investigation report and newsletters, are also helpful for domestic tropical forest product
producers and traders choose cooperative partners and make feasible marketing
strategies.
iv)Project sustainability
At present, forest products market and international trade is one of the most important
research fields of Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information (RIFPI), CAF. With
the establishment of Center for International Forest Product Trade of SFA in implementing
institute, SFA has allocated related projects to RIFPI, which ensure the sustainability of
market information collection and trade database.
Through implementing the project, project team has established close relationship with
some foreign research institutes, such as CENTRAFOR of University of Washington,
Forest Products Laboratory of USA, proposal on forecasting model of forest product will
be proposed for future further cooperation. At the same time, the project team will
continue to keep information exchange with them, so as to distribute updating North
American market information to domestic stakeholders, because North American is one of
the most export market for China.
In addition, the capacity of the ITTO supported Tropical Forest Product Information and
Consultation Center of China has been further enhanced, its resource and information
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base is expanded, its links with stakeholders become closer and closer. All these have laid
a good foundation for future following up research on market of tropical wood products in
China.
From the realized Project performance and outcome, it can be seen that the Project had
been adequately designed through the correct definition of problems, the accurate
identification of project objectives, and the viable choice of implementation strategy. At the
same time, the identification process is closely linked to different stakeholders, this ensure
the Project is able to create impacts to the right target beneficiaries.
iii)Critical differences
According to the project document, the project duration was 24 months. Actual project
duration is 29 months after 5 months extension due to waiting for new annual official data
and the official release of Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan (2011-2015) for forest
sectors.
2011 is called a “plan year” in China because it is the beginning year for the Twelfth
Five-Year Development Plan. Related industries which have impacts on demand and
supply of timber developed their official Five-Year Plans in 2011. These plans were
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released in the early half of 2012 and provided important references for revising and
polishing the final project reports.
As mentioned above, there is five months extension for the project duration. It is better if
the ending date is in the midterm.
During the project implementation, executive agency gave great support on personnel and
equipment, financial resources, data resource etc. Project team members are actively
responsible in their roles and stakeholders actively contribute support to the project when
necessary. ITTO manager and international consultant also provided valuable comments
and ideas during project implementation. Therefore, project inputs are adequate.
There was little external influence that had impacted on the successful completion of this
project except for the delay release of official data and plan (refer to section iii). The
executive agency through previous projects in this field have established good working
relationships with government organs (such as the Ministry of Commerce) and its
commercial institutions abroad, the SFA, GAC and National Bureau of Statistics in order to
collect materials. In addition, Center for International Forest Product Trade of SFA which
affiliated to the executive agency provides a broad platform for further cooperation with
different stakeholders. All these can mitigate the risks of failure in collaboration with many
domestic and international institutions.
vi)Project beneficiaries
As mentioned in section 4 above, beneficiaries took active part in project activities. The
research reports of the project are helpful for target beneficiaries to get clear
understanding of the situation and future trend of supply and demand of wood products
market, which will provide bases to the relevant authorities for their decision making, as
well as provide important market information to ITTO member countries. The newsletter
reported relevant information on Chinese wood products market timely. It is an effective
way to ensure effective communication and information exchange among beneficiaries,
especially to establish close relationship with forest industry associations and typical
enterprises to keep abreast of new development on production and demands of forest
products. The following two tables show the main benefits which the project can provide
for direct and indirect beneficiaries through publishing reports and newsletters, holding
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seminars and workshops, conducting market survey and enterprises investigations etc.
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Consumers of tropical wood products Know more information on forest products
market
Domestic research and teaching institutions Get more information on China’s forest
products market, it is helpful for future
research and teaching
Government agencies and industrial and Get sufficient understanding of supply and
trade organizations in China (eg. demand of China’s tropical forest product
representative office) for ITTO member markets, which provides a basis to follow
countries who engage in the trade of wood when they implement macro management,
products with China formulate policies and make decisions.
Relevant international organizations such Get sufficient understanding of supply and
as ITTO, FAO, UNECE, WWF and WB demand of China’s tropical forest product
markets, it is good for their future projects in
China
vii)Project sustainability
The sustainability of the project had been discussed in section 4. Almost all stakeholders
were of the opinion that this Project should be continued. Several government authorities
had express their interest in participating in the following activities since China plays an
increasing important role in the global processing and trading chain of tropical wood
products.
With the new trends of international trade of forest products, such as Lacey Act and EU
timber regulation, Chinese forest industry faces severe challenges from export market. At
the same time, new domestic market structure will be established during the Twelfth
Five-Year Development Plan (2011-2015). It is necessary to continue the research on
forest products market to understand its changes and future trends. Considering that
China has become the international center of manufacture, consumption and trade of
wood products in the world, the depth studies on Chinese forest products market will
greatly contribute to the sustainable development of global wood products market.
6. Lessons Learned
a) Project identification and design matters
Driven by both domestic consumption and export demand, the demand for timber,
especially log and sawnwood, increased sharply in last decades. Up to now China is the
largest log import country. In 2006, before the project was implemented China’s log
imports reached 32.15 million m3, up over 200 percent from 1998. It is estimated that
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China’s consumption of wood products would increase at annual rate of 15 percent. It is of
significance to forecast demand and supply of wood products in China in foreseeable
future. Therefore, the project identification is of great importance.
In addition, while developing the project proposal, the Executing Agency had completed a
market survey and the results were discussed during a few stakeholders’ meetings. The
views and suggestions gathered from these discussions and consultations were valuable
inputs for developing the proposal. The very thorough project designing and planning
process contributed a lot to the smooth execution of project activities.
b) Operational matters
Collaboration with stakeholders is very important. During implementing the project, the
project team had been keeping close contacts with stakeholders, such as statistical
institutions, forest authorities, industrial associations, manufactures and customs, etc.
Without assistances of these stakeholders market surveys would not have been done
successfully. At the same time, close collaboration with stakeholders also ensure the
timeliness of the execution of project activities and enhance further overall quality and
quantity of the outputs.
The information correspondents from key consumer provinces of tropical wood products
played important role in collecting data and market surveys. The project engaged 12
correspondents who provided project team with information and data on tropical wood
products in China timely during implementation of project. These information is very useful
for editing the newsletter ‘‘China’s Forest Products Information’’ as well as for writing
project reports.
The international consultant played an important role in framework design and finalization
of project technical report. According to project document, an international consultant will
be hire to assistant project team to accomplish project work. In the light of that the United
States is the most important trade partner of China in wood products as well as its mother
tong is English, the project invited an American professor from the Center for International
Trade of Forest Products, University of Washington as the project consultant. The
international consultant is an expert in model who came to China and worked together
with project team for two weeks and worked back in USA for another two weeks to assist
project team to finalize the technical reports. The consultant is very conscientious and
made a due contribution to the project.
Keeping regular communication with foreign research institute, ITTO, beside the
scheduled project Technical Committee Meetings, has provide crucial guidance to
implement the project and manage all related activities.
Documenting the outputs of the project by compiling and publishing newsletters provided
the necessary profile uplifting for the project. These newsletters and posters prepared by
the Executing Agency had been distributed through the Center for International Forest
Product Trade of SFA, as well as during regional and international events such as the Asia
- Pacific Forest Week (Beijing, 2011) and XXIII IUFRO World Congress (Seoul 2010).
The project, PD 480/07 Rev.2 (M) Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in
China Towards 2020, was approved at the 44th ITTO Council session in Yokohama in
2008. The project, which was a follow up to ITTO PD 25/96 Rev.2(M), was aimed at
improving the supply of tropical wood products from sustainably managed forests to
Chinese market and promoting sustainable development of global wood products trade.
The project analyzed the timber situation in China with a focus on tropical timber to
increase market transparency in China. Major project activities and outputs included data
collection, analysis and preparation of interim reports were completed to achieve this
objective. Outreach activities included publishing and disseminating China’s Forest
Products Market Information, and holding seminars and an international workshop. A
newly-created forecasting model for the supply and demand of tropical wood products in
China, and questionnaires for enterprises and consumers were developed for the project.
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This final report of this project contains information and materials on tropical wood
production, consumption and trade that had been collected for analysis and compilation. A
consulting meeting was held to collect stakeholders’ opinions and suggestions, and
formed part of the analysis. Two separate analysis reports and an investigation report,
including the analysis reports on the productive capacity of Chinese tropical wood
processing enterprises and the end uses of the imported tropical log were finalized and
used to develop this final report.
Through forecasting timber demands from different consuming sectors (end uses), such
as wood-based panel sector, pulp and paper sector, wood furniture sector, infrastructure
construction sector, construction, decorating, repair and remodeling sector, and other
timber consuming sectors, the total demand for industrial timber in China (excluding waste
paper, branch wood, small-diameter logs and processing residues) was estimated to be
601 million m3 for 2020 in log equivalent. Regarding timber supply capacity of domestic
forest resources, the timber supply potential is estimated at 463-473 million m3 in log
equivalent for 2020.
Using the dynamic model, which was established using a comprehensive analysis of
factors affecting tropical timber supply and demand, the development trend of tropical
timber supply and demand was forecasted and analyzed using mathematical software. It
was forecasted that China’s tropical timber supply would be 8.22 million m3 and the
demand will be 20.61 million m3, so the gap would be 12.39 million m3 in 2020.
It is clear that there will still be big gap between timber supply and demand in 2020.
Chapter 6 of final report presents policy recommendations in order to alleviate the
conflicts between supply and demand of tropical timber.
In general, the project activities were conducted successfully and contributed important
findings through effective project design and inputs. The conclusions and
recommendations are summarized as below:
Identification
China is one of the largest countries in production, consumption and trade of tropical
wood products. With the rapid development of national economy and fast increase of
people’s living standards, China’s demands for tropical wood products will continue to
increase and this will certainly affect word timber markets. Therefore it is of great
importance to analyze and forecast future demand and supply of China’s tropical wood
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products. The project identification is in accordance not only with China’s expectation, but
also with the interests of other parts of the world.
Design
The project design is reasonable. The specific objective of the project is to analyze the
timber situation in China by 2020 with focus on tropical timber to increase market
transparency in China. The main output of the project is a comprehensive report: “Outlook
on demand and supply situation of tropical wood products in China in 2020”, and three
attached reports: “Productive capacity of Chinese tropical wood processing enterprises
and the end uses of the imported tropical logs”, “A survey on consumers’ preference on
tropical wood products in China” and “Conflict issues and policy trends on China’s trading
of tropical wood products”.
The plan of the project is workable; progress of the project is in light of the work plan;
expenses of the project are strictly in accordance with project budget though US dollars
have greatly devaluated during implementation of the project.
Implementation
Implementation is carried out smoothly. Project team members have sufficient knowledge
in different fields and know that team spirit is most important in implementation of project,
therefore, they are in good cooperation, each member clears his (her) own duty and work
hard. Monitoring and evaluation conducted by ITTO and ITTO official and donor
representative participated the monitoring meeting facilitated the implementation.
Since China plays an increasing important role in the global processing and trading chain
of tropical wood products, and the Chinese wood product market has a strong appeal to
outside world, it is suggested that ITTO should continuously support depth studies on
Chinese tropical wood market. Some recommendations for future projects are as
followings:
During the execution of the project it was found that there are still some problems in
statistics on China’s wood products resulting in inconsistent statistics data or the
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difficulty in getting data on timber production, consumption and trade flows. The
project team suggests that ITTO continues to support China’s improvement of wood
products statistics projects.
With the new trends of international trade of forest products, such as Lacey Act and
EU timber regulation, Chinese forest industry faces severe challenges from export
market. It is necessary to continue to trace its changes and future trends, so as to
understand China forest products market in the background of ever-changing global
market.
With increasing labor force cost in China, some global wood products manufactures
are gradually transferring their wood manufacture in China to other countries such as
Vietnam and Laos. With intense international competition, China wood products
manufacturers have to change their development strategy, it is estimated that new
domestic forest industrial structure will be established during the Twelfth Five-Year
Development Plan (2011-2015), which will result in the great changes in market
structure of forest products in China. Therefore, follow-up study is very much needed.
27
Annex 1: Project Financial Statement
Project No. : PD 480/07 Rev.2 (M) Period ending on: 10 July, 2012
Project Title: Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in China towards 2020
20. Sub-contracts
28
21. Sub-contract (Translating) 14 000 0 14 000 14 000 0
Sub-contract (Publishing and
22. disseminating ) 22 000 0 22 000 22 000 0
30. Travel
31. Daily Subsistence Allowance
31.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
31.2 International Consultant(s) 5 190 0 5 190 5 190 0
31.3 Others 34 200 0 34 200 34 200 0
32. International Travel
32.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
32.2 International Consultant(s) 2 810 0 2 060 2 060 750
32.3 Others 12 000 0 12 000 12 000 0
33. Local Transport Costs
33.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
33.2 International Consultant(s) 2 260 0 2 095 2 095 165
33.3 Others 10 400 0 10 400 10 400 0
60. Miscellaneous
61. Sundry 25 940 0 25 940 25 940 0
29
62. Audit Costs
63. Contingencies 44 300 0 45 217 45 217 -917
Sub-Total: 26 520 - - - b/
30
PROJECT FINANCIAL STATEMENT (in US Dollar)
For China Counterpart Funding
Project No. : PD 480/07 Rev.2 (M) Period ending on: 10 July, 2012
Project Title: Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in China towards 2020
20. Sub-contracts
21. Sub-contract (Translating)
31
Sub-contract (Publishing and
22. disseminating ) 19 200 0 19 200 19 200 0
30. Travel
31. Daily Subsistence Allowance
31.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
31.2 International Consultant(s)
31.3 Others 2 000 0 2 000 2 000 0
32. International Travel
32.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
32.2 International Consultant(s)
32.3 Others
33. Local Transport Costs
33.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
33.2 International Consultant(s)
33.3 Others 4 000 0 4 000 4 000 0
60. Miscellaneous
61. Sundry 2 000 0 2 000 2 000 0
62. Audit Costs 5 000 0 5 000 5 000 0
63. Contingencies
32
69. Component Total: 7 000 0 7 000 7 000 0
Sub-Total: - - - b/
33
Annex 2: Project Cash Flow Statement
Project No. : PD 480/07 Rev.2 (M) Period ending on: 10 July, 2012
Project Title:Demand and Supply of Tropical Wood Products in China towards 2020
Amount
Component
Reference Date
Local
in US$
Currency
34
15.2 Training 2
15.3 Training 3
20. Sub-contracts
21. Sub-contract (Translating) 14 000 88 340
Sub-contract (Publishing and
22. Disseminating) 22 000 138 820
30. Travel
31. Daily Subsistence Allowance
31.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
31.2 International Consultant(s) 5 190 327 489
31.3 Others 34 200 215 802
32. International Travel
32.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
32.2 International Consultant(s) 2 060 12 999
32.3 Others 12 000 75 720
33. Local Transport Costs
33.1 National Expert(s)/Consultant(s)
33.2 International Consultant(s) 2 095 13 219
33.3 Others 10 400 65 624
60. Miscellaneous
61. Sundry 25 940 163 681
62. Audit costs
63. Contingencies 45 217 285 319
Notes: (1) Amounts in U.S. dollars are converted using the average rate of exchange when funds
were received by the Executing Agency
(2) Total Expenditures To-date (in local currency) should be the same as amount shown in
Sub-Total of column (C) of the Financial Statement.
36