Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Turnout-at-Elections 2021 Uberoi HoCL
Turnout-at-Elections 2021 Uberoi HoCL
26 August 2021
Turnout at elections
Summary
1 National Parliament Elections
2 Devolved Administrations
3 Local Elections
4 European Parliament Elections
5 Appendix
commonslibrary.parliament.uk
Number 8060 Turnout at elections
Image Credits
Polling station – copyright House of Commons Library
Disclaimer
The Commons Library does not intend the information in our research
publications and briefings to address the specific circumstances of any
particular individual. We have published it to support the work of MPs. You
should not rely upon it as legal or professional advice, or as a substitute for
it. We do not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors, omissions or
misstatements contained herein. You should consult a suitably qualified
professional if you require specific advice or information. Read our briefing
‘Legal help: where to go and how to pay’ for further information about
sources of legal advice and help. This information is provided subject to the
conditions of the Open Parliament Licence.
Feedback
Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in these publicly
available briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be
aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated to reflect
subsequent changes.
You can read our feedback and complaints policy and our editorial policy at
commonslibrary.parliament.uk. If you have general questions about the work
of the House of Commons email hcenquiries@parliament.uk.
Contents
Summary 4
2 Devolved Administrations 15
3 Local Elections 17
5 Appendix 23
Summary
In the UK, elections are held at different levels of governance. This paper
covers the higher-level elections: those for the UK Parliament’s House of
Commons, the devolved administrations, local councils, and the European
Parliament (up until 2019). It does not cover elections for Police and Crime
Commissioners, mayors and parish councils.
Note: Turnout shown for Scotland and Wales is the highest of the two (constituency and list). Data for
the 2019 and 2021 local elections in England are not yet available
Sources: European Parliament, Election results 2019; Electoral Commission, past election results;
Library Briefing Paper, General Election 2019: full results and analysis
There is substantial variation, for all these elections, among the different
countries, regions, constituencies and local authorities of the UK. Younger
people are less likely to vote than older people at general elections.
The 2019 General Election 1 broke a run of four successive elections in which
turnout increased. Turnout was 67.3% across the UK, down by 1.5 percentage
points compared with 2017 (68.8%). It was nevertheless the second-highest
general election turnout since 1997 (71.4%). The highest turnout recorded at a
UK general election over the last 100 years was in 1950, 83.9%. The chart
below gives a general overview of the long-term trend in voter turnout at
general elections.
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1918
1922
1923
1924
1929
1931
1935
1945
1950
1951
1955
1959
1964
1966
1970
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
2010
2015
2017
2019
O1974
F1974
Between 1922 and 1997, turnout at UK general elections remained above 71%,
rising to over 80% in the general elections of 1950 and 1951. Turnout was only
57.2% in the 1918 General Election, although this was partly due to a low
1
House of Commons Library, General Election 2019
service vote and a large number of uncontested seats (107 out of a total of
707 seats).
In 2001, turnout fell to 59.4%, its lowest level since 1918 and down 12
percentage points compared with 1997. Although turnout rose again between
2005 and 2017, before declining again slightly in 2019, it remained below its
1997 level.
The chart below shows turnout in different parts of the UK since 1918 (also in
Appendix 5.1).
80%
60%
England
40%
Wales
20% Scotland
Northern Ireland
0%
1918
1923
1929
1935
1950
1955
1964
1970
1983
1992
2001
2010
2017
O1974
Source: House of Commons Library, General Election 2019, House of Commons Library, UK Election
Statistics and Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 (2012).
2
See S Orford, C Rallings, M Thrasher, G Borisyuk, ‘Changes in the probability of voter turnout when
resiting poling stations: a case study in Brent, UK’, in Environment and Planning C: Government and
Policy, 2011, 29:pp149-169
Turnout was usually lowest in Northern Ireland. 3 The turnout in each of the
countries of the UK in 2019 was below the 1918-2019 average for the UK, which
was 72.7%. This is also true for all the electoral regions of the UK, shown in
the table below.
Turnout was highest in the South West (72.0%) and lowest in Northern Ireland
(61.8%), followed by the North East (64.2%).
The constituency with the highest turnout was East Dunbartonshire (80.3%),
won by the Scottish National Party. In the 2017 General Election, Twickenham
had recorded the highest turnout (79.5%). Eight of the ten constituencies with
the highest turnout featured the Liberal Democrats in first or second place.
Eight of the ten constituencies with the smallest turnout were won by Labour,
one by the Conservatives and one by the Speaker. Three of the ten
constituencies with the lowest turnout in the UK were in Kingston upon Hull.
3
Some people in Northern Ireland do not vote in UK Parliamentary elections given the complicated
history and relationship between Ireland and Great Britain
Turnout by age
In many Western democracies, younger people are less likely to vote than
older people. There are no official figures for voting by age in the UK, but a
long-running academic survey, the British Election Study, provides reasonably
consistent survey-based data for general elections since 1964. This type of
data comes with a degree of uncertainty: it uses the survey responses of a
relatively small sample of people to estimate the behaviour of the entire
population. There is generally some variation between estimates and actual
results.
The charts below show estimated turnout by age group at all general
elections since 1964.
18-24 25-34
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
35-44 45-54
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
55-64 65+
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1970
1983
1992
2001
2010
2017
1964a
O1974
1970
1983
1992
2001
2010
2017
1964a
O1974
Notes: Data for 1964 and 1966 refers to people aged 21-24 as the voting age was 21 not 18; estimates
based on British Election Study data have been adjusted for actual turnout
IPSOS Mori produce estimates of how different age groups (and other groups)
voted at each election. For the 2019 General Election, their estimates suggest
that the same pattern shown above holds: people aged 18-24 were least likely
to vote (47% turnout), with those over 65 most likely to vote (74%). 4
4
These estimates are based on pre-election surveys. The methodology is different from the British
Election Study so estimates are not directly comparable.
5
E.g. Daniel Rubenson et al, ‘Accounting for the age gap in turnout’, in Acta Politica, 2004, 39:pp407-
421; Jan Germen Janmaat and Bryony Hoskins, ‘Voter turnout: how the education systems widens the
social class gap’, Institute Of Education Blog (UCL), 10 December 2019
6
Andre Blais, ‘What affects voter turnout?’, in Annual Review of Political Science, 2005, 9:pp111-125
Note: turnout as reported by source (it is not stated how this is calculated). UK turnout adjusted to
match House of Commons Library data.
Source: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Voter Turnout Database,
accessed 26 August 2021
Across the 27 EU states the average turnout for parliamentary elections was
65.7%. Malta had the highest turnout, at 92.1%, followed by Luxembourg and
Belgium, where voting is compulsory. Romania recorded the lowest turnout
(31.8%). Following the 2019 General Election, the UK had the 13th highest
turnout among the countries in the chart.
The chart below shows the variation in turnout at all by-elections since 1979.
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
3/5/84 23/1/86 18/10/90 30/6/94 4/5/00 22/5/08 28/2/13 4/4/19
2 Devolved Administrations
Elections for the devolved administrations are normally held every four to five
years. Elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Parliament
(previously the National Assembly for Wales) were first held in May 1999. Both
countries use the Additional Member System, where voters have two votes:
one to elect a constituency member and one for a party on a regional list. The
first elections (1999) saw the highest turnout recorded in both countries. In
Wales, turnout has tended to be around 40-45% and in Scotland 50-55%. The
next elections are scheduled for May 2026.
Elections for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections first took place in 1998.
These elections use the Single Transferable Vote system, where voters express
their preference for candidates by ranking them. Turnout has tended to be
higher than in Wales and Scotland, with most elections recording a turnout
over 60%. The next elections are scheduled for May 2022.
The table below shows turnout at elections for the devolved administrations.
Scottish Parliament
1999 58.7% 58.8%
2003 49.4% 49.4%
2007 52.4% 51.7%
2011 50.4% 50.4%
2016 55.7% 55.6%
2021 63.5% 63.3%
3 Local Elections
Local elections were last held in England in 2021, in Northern Ireland in 2019,
and in Wales and Scotland in 2017.
The next local elections in Northern Ireland are expected in 2023. In England,
local elections are held every year, because different local councils run
different election cycles: there are some seats up for election in each year. 9
The 2020 elections were postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic.
The next local elections in Scotland and Wales are scheduled for 2022, a year
later than initially planned to avoid occurring on the same day as the
elections for the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments.
The table below shows the turnout at local elections in the UK since 1973.
Some of the variation between years is due to local elections being held on
the same day as a general election (most recently in 2015).
7
E.g. Anthony Heath, Iain McLean, Bridget Taylor and John Curtice, ‘Between first and second order: a
comparison of voting behaviour in European and local elections in Britain’, in European Journal of
Political Research, 35:5, 2003
8
Electoral Reform Society, English Local Elections (2011)
9
See Library Briefing Paper Local elections 2019, p5, for an overview of different election cycles
Notes: a. Counties until 1995 b. Districts until 1995. In 2017 the only Metropolitan council to hold
elections was Doncaster. Turnout for 2019 is aggregate reported turnout. Data for 2021 is not yet
available.
Source: Electoral Commission, Local Election Results; Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, British
Electoral Facts 1832-2012 (2012), Local Elections Handbook 2019 (2019)
Note: Comparable data are not available for local elections in Northern Ireland and are not yet
available for the 2019 and 2021 local elections in England
10
Turnout calculated by Total vote turnout (incl. postal votes rejected and votes rejected at the count)
Elections to the European Parliament were held in the UK between 1979 and
2019. Turnout was relatively low and these elections were often considered
second-order elections, which voters see as less important than national
elections so that they are less likely to vote. 11
11
E.g. Anthony Heath, Iain McLean, Bridget Taylor and John Curtice, ‘Between first and second order: a
comparison of voting behaviour in European and local elections in Britain’, in European Journal of
Political Research, 35:5, 2003
In 2019, the highest local turnouts in Great Britain were in the Isles of Scilly
(53.9%), the City of London (53.8%) and Richmond-upon-Thames (53.6%).
The lowest local turnouts were in Knowsley (23.4%), Kingston-Upon-Hull
(23.9%) and Hartlepool (25.4%). All of the top 20 turnout areas voted Remain
in the EU Referendum of 2016, whilst the lowest 20 turnout areas all voted
Leave. 12
In 2014, 15 of the 20 highest turnout areas would vote Remain in 2016, whilst 17
of the lowest turnout areas would vote to Leave the EU in the referendum of
2016. 13
12
House of Commons Library, Analysis of the EU referendum results 2016; House of Commons Library,
European Parliament Elections 2019
13
Electoral Commission, European Parliament Election 2014: House of Commons Library, Analysis of the
EU referendum results 2016
Sources: EuroParl, European elections: results, European Parliament, European Election Results 2019
(accessed 10 June 2019); Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 (2012),
House of Commons Library, European Parliament Elections 2019
5 Appendix
Source: House of Commons Library, General Election 2019, House of Commons Library, UK Election
Statistics and Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 (2012).
Age group
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All
a
1964 76.4% 70.7% 79.5% 79.1% 78.4% 76.7% 77.1%
a
1966 60.5% 70.8% 80.0% 79.8% 78.0% 75.9% 75.8%
1970 64.9% 66.5% 72.8% 74.9% 74.1% 77.2% 72.0%
F1974 70.2% 77.2% 78.7% 73.1% 82.2% 79.2% 78.8%
O1974 62.5% 69.0% 73.9% 76.6% 76.6% 76.0% 72.8%
1979 62.5% 72.4% 76.3% 81.2% 81.4% 77.7% 76.0%
1983 63.9% 67.6% 76.2% 77.6% 77.2% 73.1% 72.7%
1987 66.6% 74.0% 74.9% 79.9% 78.9% 76.0% 75.3%
1992 67.3% 77.3% 78.3% 81.8% 78.1% 79.2% 77.7%
1997 54.1% 62.2% 70.2% 76.4% 79.9% 77.7% 71.4%
2001 40.4% 45.0% 55.7% 63.2% 64.0% 70.1% 59.4%
2005 38.2% 47.7% 61.6% 65.5% 72.6% 74.3% 61.4%
2010 51.8% 57.3% 64.4% 67.5% 69.8% 74.7% 65.1%
2015 51.6% 51.8% 60.6% 70.1% 74.4% 79.3% 66.2%
2017 48.6% 50.6% 59.6% 70.7% 82.5% 85.2% 68.8%
2019 54.5% 54.4% 60.9% 71.0% 72.8% 78.5% 67.3%
Notes: Data for 1964 and 1966 refers to people aged 21-24 as the voting age was 21 not 18; estimates
using British Election Study data have been adjusted for actual turnout
commonslibrary.parliament.uk
@commonslibrary