TOPIC 4 : INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

After completing this chapter, you should be able to

 Determine sample spaces and find the probability

of an event, using classical probability or
empirical probability.
 Find the probability of compound events, using
the addition rules.
 Find the probability of compound events, using
the multiplication rules.
 Find the conditional probability of an event.
 Find the number of outcomes in a sequence of
events, using fundamental counting rule.
 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects, using the permutation
rule.
 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects without regard to order,
using the combination rule.
 Find the probability of an event, using counting
rules.

4.1 INTRODUCTION
Definition: Probability is likelihood @ chance
that a particular event will occur.
Basis of inferential statistics
Eg: - Prediction - Hypothesis testing etc.

Set Operations Related to Event in Experiment

A set is a group of objects.

Capital letters -> denote sets
Small letters -> represent their elements

Set notation

i) a∈A -> “a is an element of set A”

ii) a ∉A -> “a is not an element of set A”
 iii) n(A) -> “the number of elements in set A”
iv) A ⊂ B - > A is a subset of B (every element of
set A is in set B)
v) S -> universal set @sample space(every set is
a subset of universal set)
vi) φ -> null set
vii) A ∪ B -> A union B(set of containing all
elements of A or B or both)
viii) A ∩ B -> intersection of A and B (set of all
elements in both A and B)
ix) A′ -> the compliment of A (set that contains

all elements not in A)

4.2 Basic Terms of Probability

Four basic terms of probability:
i) An experiment – a process that produces
outcomes.
 - A sample space(S) – Set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment. Element of S
are called sample points.

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head(H) ,Tail(T)
Toss a coin twice HT, HH, TH, TT
Toss a coin thrice HHH,HHT,HTH,THH,
HTT,THT,HTT,TTT
Roll a dice 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer true /false True, false

ii) An event – an outcome of an experiment.

iii) An outcome – the result of a single event of

an experiment.
Example 1:
Determine the experiment, sample space, event
and outcome for the following cases:

i) Flash cards with numbers 1 to 20 are put into a

bag. A card is chosen at random from the bag.
Find the probability of getting an odd number.

ii) Flash cards with numbers 1 to 17 are put into a

bag. A card is chosen at random from the bag.
Find the probability of getting multiples of 3.

iii) When a fair dice is thrown, what is the

probability an even number appears.
 Types of event

i) Simple @ Elementary event

- event with one outcome.
- cannot be decomposed or broken down into
other events.
Example:- events of getting “H” on a toss of coin.
- events of getting “3” on a roll of a dice.

ii) Compound events

- Consist of two @more outcomes or simple
events.

Example: the event of getting an odd number

when a dice is rolled once. Three outcomes will
be produced namely 1, 3, 5.
iii) Complement of an event
- Set of outcomes in the sample space that is not
included in the outcomes of that event.

Example: The event A is an event of getting odd

numbers. The complement of event A denoted
by A’ will consist of even numbers.

iv) Mutually exclusive events

- Two events for example events A and B cannot
occur at the same time. (Cannot have
intersection)
Example: -Events of getting 4 and 6 in roll of dice.
-Events of getting an odd number and
even number.
v) Independent events
- The fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
- Example : if a dice is rolled and a coin is tossed,
the outcome of rolling the dice does not affect
the event of tossing a coin.

4.3 CALCULATING PROBABILITES

Use sample space to determine the numerical

probability that an event will happen.
Assumes that all outcomes of the experiment are
equally likely to occur.

Example: i) Rolling a dice – the probability of

getting a “1” is 1/6.

ii) Toss a coin – the probability of getting

a “Head” is ½
 Probability of occurrence:

Number of outcomes A n( A)
P ( A) = =
Number of outcomes S n(S )

P(A) is referred to as the simple/marginal

probability of A.

Example 2:
Flash cards with numbers 1 to 20 are put into a bag.
A card is chosen at random from the bag. Find the
probability of getting
a) an odd number b) multiples of 3

Example 3:
A fair dice is thrown, what is the probability of
getting: a) An even number
b) A number bigger than 4
Answer:

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E = an event of getting an even no
E = {2, 4, 6}
n(E) = 3
P(E) = n(E)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½

4.3.1 Basic properties of probabilities

i) Probability is measured on a scale from 0 to 1

(0 ≤ P(E ) ≤ 1). Probability cannot be negative or
greater than 1.

ii) When an event can never happen, the

probability is 0. (P(E)= 0)
Example 4:
When a single die is rolled, find the probability of
getting 8.

Answer: S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = An event of getting 8
A = {φ } because it is impossible to get a 8
P(A) = P(getting a 8) = 0 equivalent P(φ ) = 0

iii) When an event is absolutely certain to happen,

the probability is 1(P(E)=1)

Example 5:
When a single die is rolled, find the probability of
getting a number less than 9.
Answer:
S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E = An event of getting a number less than 9
E ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
6
P(E) = P(getting a number < 9) = = 1
6

iv) The probability of sample space is 1( P(S ) = 1)

v) If probability of occurrence p ( P(E ) = p ),

probability of not occurring or probability of the
complement of E is P(E ′) = 1 − p .

Example 6:
A ball is chosen at random a box containing 7 balls,
which 2 of the balls are green in colour. What the
probability of getting a ball that not green in colour.
Answer:
G = An event of getting a ball that green in colour
P(G) = 2/7
G’= An event of getting a ball that not green in
colour
P(G’) = 1-P(G) = 1 – 2/7 = 5/7

4.3.2 The Addition Rules of Probability

Addition rule 1:
Given two finite sets A and B that are not disjoint.
Then,
n( A ∪ B ) = n( A ) + n( B ) − n( A ∩ B )
Then the probability
n( A ∪ B )
P( A or B ) = P( A ∪ B ) =
n(S )
n( A) + n( B ) − n( A ∩ B )
=
n(S )
= P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
Addition rule 2:

Given two finite sets A and B that are disjoint. Then

n( A ∪ B ) = n( A) + n( B )

The probability,
n( A ∪ B ) n( A ) + n( B )
P( A or B ) = P( A ∩ B ) = =
n(S ) n(S )
= P ( A) + P ( B )

4.3.3 Multiplication Rules of Probability

The multiplication rules can be used to find the

probability of two or more event that occur in
sequence.

Multiplication rule 1:

If outcome of the first event does not affect the

outcome of the second event (independent event),
then P( A and B ) = P( A ∩ B ) = P( A) ⋅ P(B )
Example 7: (Text Book Eg:10)
If 2 fair coins are tossed, what is the probability of
getting a tail on the first and the second toss?
Answer:

Let T1 = event of getting a tail on the first toss

T2 = event of getting a tail on the second toss
T1 and T2 are independent events.

1 1 1
∴ P(T 1∩ T 2) = P(T 1) ⋅ P(T 2) = ⋅ =
2 2 4

Example 8 :
A coin is flipped and a dice is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the dice
Answer:

P(head and 4) = P(head). P(4) = (1/2).(1/6) = 1/12

Multiplication rule 2:

If outcome of the first event affects the outcomes

of the second event(dependent events). When two
events(A and B) are dependent, the probability that
both occurring is:

P( A and B ) = P( A ∩ B ) = P( A B )P(B ) = P(B A)P( A)

Example 9: (Text Book Eg.11)

A box contains 3 green marbles and 2 white marbles.
If 2 marbles are taken one after the other without
replacement, find the probability of getting a green
and a white marble, given the marble on the first
take is green?
Answer:
The taking of the second marble is dependent on the
taking of the first ball.
Let
G1 = getting a green marble on the first take
W2 = getting a white marble on the second take
3 2 6
∴ P( G1 ∩ W 2 ) = P( G1 ).P( W 2 G1 ) = . =
5 4 20

4.3.4 Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events where P( A) ≠ 0 and

P( B ) ≠ 0 . The probability of A given that B has

already occurred is referred to as the conditional

probability of A given B written as P( A B ).

P( A ∩ B )
P( A B ) =
P(B )

Where P( A ∩ B ) = P( A B )P(B ) = P(B A)P( A)

Example 10: (Text book Eg.8)
When a fair die is thrown, an odd number appears.
What is the probability that the number is prime?

Example 11: (Text book Eg.9)

1 2
A and B are events such that P( A B ) = , P( B A ) =
2 3
2
and P( A ) = . Find
5

a) P( A ∩ B ) b) P( B ) c) P( A ∪ B )

Example 12 :

The events A and B are such that P(A|B) = 1/3 ,

5
P(B|A) = 1/4 and P( A ∪ B ) = . Find P( A ∩ B ).
6
Answer: 5/36

From the rules of addition, multiplication and

complementary events, the following formula
can be derived:

1) P( A′ ∩ B ) = P(B ∩ A′) = P( A ∪ B ) − P( A) = P(B ) − P( A ∩ B )

2) P(B′ ∩ A) = P( A ∩ B′) = P( A ∪ B ) − P(B ) = P( A) − P( A ∩ B )
3) P( A′ ∩ B ′) = 1 − P( A ∪ B )
4) P( A′ ∪ B ′) = 1 − P( A ∩ B )

Example 13 :
3
The events A and B are such that P( A) = ,
5
1 4
P( A′ B ) = , P( A ∪ B ) = . Find:
2 5
i) P( A′ ∩ B ) ii) P(B ) iii) P( A ∩ B )
iv) State whether events A and B are
a) Mutually exclusive
b) Independent
Example 14:

The events L and B are such that P(L ) = 0.73 ,

P( B ) = 0.49 and P(L ∪ B ) = 0.85 . Find the

probability of

i) L and B
ii) L and not B
iii) not L and not B

4.3.5 Probability Trees

Probability trees are used to find the probability of

events that involve more than one trials.

i) Independents trees
ii) Dependent trees
Example 15: (Text book Eg.28)

Suppose one has in a bag 8 white marbles and 2 black

marbles. Find the probability of drawing 1 white and
1 black marble, if

a) the first marble is replaced (branches are

independent of each other).
b) the first marble drawn is not replaced (branch
are not independent of each other).

Solution:
Let W = event that a white marble is drawn
B = event that a black marble is drawn

a) Sampling with replacement.

Using properties of independent event, for two

events A and B, P( A ∩ B ) = P( A ) ⋅ P( B )

8 2 2 8 32 8
P(1W and 1B) = . + . = =
10 10 10 10 100 25
b) Sampling without replacement

Using the properties of conditional probabilities,

for two events A and B, P( A ∩ B ) = P( A B )P( B )

8 2 2 8 32 16
P(1 W and 1B) = . + . = =
10 9 10 9 90 45

Example 16: (Text book Eg. 29)

Given a bag consisting of 5 red balls and 4 yellow
balls. A ball is taken out at random and the colour of
the ball is noted. The ball is then replaced back into
the bag and a second ball is taken out. What is the
probability that

a) the first ball is red and the second is yellow,

b) both balls are of the same colour,
c) both balls are not red in colour.
4.4 Bayes Theorem

Suppose that A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., An are n mutually exclusive

events and S = A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ ... ∪ An . If B is an event
of S, then for i =1,2,3,…., n.

P( B Ai ).P( Ai )
P( Ai B ) =
P( B A1 ).P( A1 ) + P( B A2 ).P( A2 ) + ....P( B An )P( An )

Example 17: (Text book Eg.39)

Three factory workers, Atan, Ali and Abu are

packing glasses into boxes. It is found that out of
the allotted batches, Atan manages to pack 35%, Ali
20%and Abu 45%. On the other hand, the
probability of Atan, Ali and Abu breaking the glasses
are 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. What is the
probability that a box containing broken glasses
taken out at random by the supervisor is packed by
Atan?
Example 18: (Text Book Eg.40)
A tenant residing at Hotel Malaysia needs a taxi. The
hotel would hire taxis from three taxi companies, A,
B and C, according to the following proportions: 30%
from A, 50% from B and 20% from C. Sometimes,
however, the taxis do not arrive on time. Taxis from
companies A, B and C are normally late 9%, 6% and
20% of the time, respectively.

a) Find the probability that the next taxi to be hired

i) will be from A and will not be late.
ii) will arrive late.
b) If a taxi arrives late, what is the probability that
it is from taxi company B?
Solution:

Reading off the tree, we have

a) i) P( taxi A will not be late) = P(A ∩ L’)
= P(A)P(L’ A)
= 0.3 × 0.91

= 0.273
ii) P(late taxi)
= P( L ∩ A ) + P( L ∩ B ) + P( L ∩ C )
= P( L A )P( A ) + P( L B )P( B ) + P( L C )P( C )
= ( 0.09 × 0.30 ) + ( 0.06 × 0.50 ) + ( 0.20 × 0.20 )
= 0.097

b) P(late taxi is from company B)

P(L B )P( B ) 0.06 × 0.50
= P( B L ) = = = 0.3093
P( L ) 0.097
Example 19: (Text Book Q13(b))

In a treasure hunt game, players are asked to find

treasure trunks hidden in a house. Each trunk
contains 10 similar boxes containing either gold
coins or marbles. The probability of finding the
treasure trunk A, B and C are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5
respectively. Trunk A contains 6 boxes of gold coins
and 4 boxes of marbles; trunk B contains 4 boxes of
gold coins and 6 boxes of marbles, while trunk C
contains 2 boxes of gold coins and 8 boxes of
marbles.
i) Draw tree diagram to summarize the above
information
ii) What is the probability of getting a box that
contains gold coin?
iii) If the box selected contains gold coins, what is
the probability that it is from trunk A
Example 20:
In a computer company, 70% of the employees are
Bumiputras. Among the Bumiputras,50% have
graduate training, 30% have college training and
20% have high school training. Whereas, among the
non-Bumiputras, 40% have graduate training, 30%
have college training, and 30% have high school
training.

a) Draw a tree diagram to depict the above

situation.
b) If an employee is selected at random, what is
the probability that the employee is a Bumiputra
and has graduate training?
c) Calculate the probability that an employee
selected at random has high school training.
d) If the employee has high school training, what is
the probability that he or she is a non-
Bumiputra?
Example 21:

A survey of undergraduate students in the school of

Information Technology at Rosehill University
revealed the following regarding the gender and
majors of the students.

Major
Gender Computer Actuarial Business Total
Science Science Computing
Male 53 11 26 90
Female 54 29 47 130
Total 107 40 73 220
What is the probability of selecting a

i) Male student
ii) Computer science or business computing
major
iii) Female or an actuarial science major
 iv) A business computing major given that the
person selected is a female.

Answer:
90
i) P (M ) = = 0.409
220
107 + 73
ii) P(CS ∩ BC ) = = 0.818
220
iii) P(F ∪ AS ) = P(F ) + P( AS ) − P(F ∩ AS )
130 + 40 − 29
= = 0.641
220
47
P( BC ∩ F ) 220 = 0.362
iv) P(BC F ) = =
P(F ) 130
220

Example 22:
The following table shows 1000 college applicants
classified according to scores made on a college
entrance examination and the quality of high school
from which they graduated, as rated by a group of
educators.
 Quality of high school
Score Total
Poor Average Superior
Low 105 60 55 220
Medium 70 175 145 390
High 25 65 300 390
Total 200 300 500 1000
a) Calculate the probability that applicant picked
at random from this group:
i) Obtained a low score on the examination
ii) Graduated from a superior high school
iii) Obtained a low score on the examination
and graduated from a superior high school
iv) Obtained a high score or graduated from a
superior high school
b) If it is known that the applicant comes from a
superior high school, what is the probability
that he or she will obtain a high score?
Answer:

a) i) 0.22 ii) 0.5 iii) 0.055 iv) 0.59

b) 0.6
MORE EXAMPLES

QUESTION 1
QUESTION 2
QUESTION 3
4.5 Basic Counting Principles

4.5.1 Permutation

Permutation is an arrangement of things in a

particular order.

Case 1: We are given n different items, we want to

arrange all the n items.
Number of arrangement = n!

Example 23:
How many different ways can 7 floral arrangements
be arranged in a row on a single display shelf?

Example 24:
A store manager wishes to display 5 different
brands of shampoo in a row. How many ways can
this be done?

Example 25: (Text book Eg 16)

In how many ways can the letters from the word

“FRIEND” be arranged if no letter can be used more
than once?

n(letters) = 6
n(different arrangements) = 6!
= 720
Case 2: There are some similar items in n items
given
n!
Number of arrangement =
n1! n2 !...nr !

Where n1, n2,…,nr = no of items which are alike.

Example 26: (Text book Eg.17)

How many different ways can the letters from the

word “MATHEMATICS” be arranged?

we have two m’s, two t’s, and two a’s.

11!
∴ P( 11;2,2,2 ) = = 4989600
2!2!2!

Example 27:
How many distinct arrangements are possible if
arrangements were to be made from the letters of
the word:
i) STATISTICS ii) CORPORATION

Case 3: We want to arrange r out of n items

n!
Number of arrangement = n Pr =
(n − r )!
Example 28:

How many three-digit numbers can be made from

the numbers 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8, if each number can be
used only once?

Solution:
5!
n = 5 r = 3 n(3-digit no) = 5P3 = = 60
2!

4.5.2 Combination

A combination is the selection of one or more items

from a collection of items where order does not
count. Number of combination taken r at a time

n n!
Cr = .
( n − r )! r!

Take note that n C r = n C n − r .

Example 29: (Text book Eg.19)
A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 9
class presidents. In how many ways can the
selection be done?

Answer: 126

Example 30:
How many ways can 3 cards are selected from
standard decks of 50 cards?

Answer:19600
4.5.3 Addition Principle Counting

Suppose that event E can occur in r ways and event

F can occur in s ways. Both E and F cannot occur
simultaneously. Then E and F occur in r + s ways.

Example 31: (Text book Eg.12)

When classes commence next semester, we are

going to have 7 male lecturers and 6 female lecturers
teaching QMT216. In how many ways can a student
choose a QMT216 lecturer?
Solution:
No. of ways to choose a male lecturer = 7
No. of ways to choose a female lecturer = 6
∴ Total number of choices= 7+6 = 13
Example 32: (Text book Eg.13)

Given two sets, namely,

E = set of prime no. between 1 and 10
F = set of odd numbers less than 10.
In how many ways can E or F occur?
Solution:
E = {2,3,5, 7} n(E to occur) = 4
F = {1,3,5,7,9} n(F to occur) = 5
However, E or F cannot occur simultaneously
n(overlaps) = 3
∴ n(E or F to occur) = 5+4–3 = 6
4.5.4 Multiplication Principle Counting

Given two events E and F that are independent.

Suppose that E can occur in m ways and F can occur
in n ways. The E and F can occur in n x m ways

Example 33: (Text book Eg.14)

If a lady has 5 blouses, 4 skirts and 4 pairs of shoes,

how many different selections of outfits can she
wear?

n(select a blouse) = 5

n(select a skirt) = 4

n(select a pair of shoes) = 4

5
∴ n(possible outfits) = C1× 4 C1× 4 C1= 5 × 4 × 4

= 80
Example 34: (Text book Eg.15)
Riang Ria Café offers 6 kinds of burgers and 5 kinds
of drinks in 3 different sizes, small, medium and
large. How many ways can a customer plan a meal
consisting of 1 burger and 1 drink?
Solution:
n(possible kinds of burgers) = 6
n(possible kinds of drinks) = 5
n(possible different sizes of drinks) = 3
n(different meal selections) = 6C1×5 C1×3 C1
= 6 × 5 × 3 = 90

Example 35: (Text book Eg.20)

Consider a group consisting of 4 women and 5 men.
If 2 women have to be part of a 4-member
committee, how many different 4-member
committees can be formed?

Solution:
n (2 women) = 4C2 = 6

n (select other two members) = 5 C2 = 10

(among the men)
n(4-member committees) = 4 C 2 ×5 C 2 = 6 × 10 = 60

Example 36:
The digits of 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 are to be used in a four-
digit ID card. How many different cards are possible
if:
i) Repetitions are allowed?
Answer : 5C1×5 C1×5 C1×5 C1 = 5 × 5 × 5 × 5 = 625
ii) Repetitions are not allowed?
Answer: 5C1× 4 C1×3 C1×2 C1 = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 = 120
 5
or P4 = 120

Example 37: (Text book Eg.21)

A school teacher needs to partition a class of 15
students into 4 groups; the first with 3 members, the
second with 2 members, the third with 4 members
and the rest of the class would make up the fourth
group.

n(form the first partition) =15 C3 = 455

n(form the second partition) =12C2 = 66
n(form the third partition) =10 C 4 = 210
n(form fourth partition) = 6C6 = 1

15
n(possible partitions) = C 3 ×12 C 2 ×10 C 4 × 6 C 6

= 455 × 66 × 210 × 1

= 6306300
Example 38:
Four married couples have bought eight seats in a
row to watch a musical theatre at Istana Budaya. In
how many different ways can they be seated if
a) each husband sits to the left of his wife

b) each couple sit together

c) all the men sit together

Answer: 24 , 48, 2880

Example 39:
How many words of four alphabets can be formed
from the word "TRADING" if each word
a) does not end with letter "G" and repetition is

allowed?

b) begins with letter "T or "D" and repetition is

 allowed?

c) does not begin with letter "TR" and repetition is

not allowed?

Answer: 2058, 686 , 820

4.5.5 Probability Problems in Counting Principles

Example 40:
A team of 7 is chosen from 5 girls and 8 boys. Find
the probability that the team consists of only one
girl?
Solution:
n(S) = n(all possible teams of 4) = 13C7 = 1716
M = event of choosing only one girl

5
n(choose 1 out of 5 girls) = C1 = 5
n(choose 6 out of 8 boys) = 8C6 = 28
5 8
n(M) = C1× C6 = 5 × 28 = 140

Probability:
n( M ) 140
∴ P( M ) = =
n( S ) 1716
Example 41:
A non-profit organization offers six scholarships to
eligible students. This year, 5 female and 7 male
students who are qualified apply for the
scholarship. If the scholarships are to be awarded
to 2 female and 4 male students, determine:

i) In how many ways can the scholarship be

given.
ii) The probability that the group of students in
(i) will receive the scholarship.

Answer: 350 , 0.379

Example 42:

The letters of the word ADIDAS are each written on

a card and the cards are then shuffled and placed in
a line.

i) In how many ways can the cards be arranged?

ii) Three letters are chosen at random. Find the
probability that at most two letters chosen
are consonants.

Answer: 30, 0.95

Example 43:

A committee of 5 members is to be formed from 5

teachers and 7 students. What is the probability
that a committee formed has 2 teachers and 3
students as members?

Answer: 0.4419

Example 44:

A developer owns 24 small generators of which 4

are defectives. If the person selects 10 generators
at random, what is the probability that 2 defectives
generators will be selected?
Answer: 0.385

Example 45:
The eleven letters of the word BOOKSHELVES are
arranged in a line.
a) How many distinct arrangements could be done?

b) If an arrangement is chosen at random, what is

the probability that the two O's are together?

Answer: 4989600, 0.18