DATA SHEET

Year Bahadurabad Hardinge Bridge Bhairab Bazar Baruria Mawa

1990 64400 49900 11700 83200 -
1991 61500 55100 14100 99000 -
1992 65600 41800 12600 72200 -
1993 59100 44700 19200 83300 -
1994 39100 - 9160 81700 88990
1995 84200 - 13400 99800 100000
1996 83485 54488 10900 96500 85605
1997 79270 42465 7825 89965 82324
1998 102535 73091 14670 141940 100000
1999 61915 61123 - 92417 96491
2000 69320 52539 12110 87058 85597
2001 49230 53408 11631 86312 71962
2002 69728 40980 16558 80988 -
2003 65684 59876 13229 106286 100000
2004 96106 37706 10571 114128 100000
2005 58767 43620 10787 98047 86075
2006 47666 37254 9464 60358 70984
2007 42241 54217 9133 45751 -
2008 62379 50562 8727 97572 100000
2009 54004 38601 8032 82441 69798
2010 45775 40276 8241 79739 80511
2011 53317 48685 7375 90818 80346
2012 63554 44275 15806 96274 71886
2013 75660 54225 8203 91820 85016
2014 62924 43412 9945 98213 79344
2015 68341 46679 9076 94820 88009
2016 100104 56135 9966 91359 94100
2017 78525 49035 11026 97281 100000
2018 43662 40749 8598 91500 44572
2019 62164 56424 12911 97400 71820
2020 60034 45325 14199 109000 86578
 STATION: BAHADURABAD
𝒎 𝟏
Year Observed flow [cumec] Ordered flow Rank [m] 𝒑=
𝟏+𝑵 𝑻=
𝒑
1990 64400 102535 1 0.03 32.00
1991 61500 100104 2 0.06 16.00
1992 65600 96106 3 0.09 10.67
1993 59100 84200 4 0.13 8.00
1994 39100 83485 5 0.16 6.40
1995 84200 79270 6 0.19 5.33
1996 83485 78525 7 0.22 4.57
1997 79270 75660 8 0.25 4.00
1998 102535 69728 9 0.28 3.56
1999 61915 69320 10 0.31 3.20
2000 69320 68341 11 0.34 2.91
2001 49230 65684 12 0.38 2.67
2002 69728 65600 13 0.41 2.46
2003 65684 64400 14 0.44 2.29
2004 96106 63554 15 0.47 2.13
2005 58767 62924 16 0.50 2.00
2006 47666 62379 17 0.53 1.88
2007 42241 62164 18 0.56 1.78
2008 62379 61915 19 0.59 1.68
2009 54004 61500 20 0.63 1.60
2010 45775 60034 21 0.66 1.52
2011 53317 59100 22 0.69 1.45
2012 63554 58767 23 0.72 1.39
2013 75660 54004 24 0.75 1.33
2014 62924 53317 25 0.78 1.28
2015 68341 49230 26 0.81 1.23
2016 100104 47666 27 0.84 1.19
2017 78525 45775 28 0.88 1.14
2018 43662 43662 29 0.91 1.10
2019 62164 42241 30 0.94 1.07
2020 60034 39100 31 0.97 1.03
 Probability chart
for Bahadurabad Station
120000

100000

80000

Ordered Flow
y = 18347ln(x) + 48126 60000
R² = 0.9392

40000

20000

0
1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Return Period, T
 STATION: BHAIRAB BAZAR
𝑚
𝒎 1
𝟏
Year Observed flow [cumec] Ordered flow Rank [m] 𝑝=
𝒑
1
𝟏++𝑁𝑵 𝑇=
𝑻
𝑝
𝒑
1990 11700 19200 1 0.03 31.00
1991 14100 16558 2 0.06 15.50
1992 12600 15806 3 0.10 10.33
1993 19200 14670 4 0.13 7.75
1994 9160 14199 5 0.16 6.20
1995 13400 14100 6 0.19 5.17
1996 10900 13400 7 0.23 4.43
1997 7825 13229 8 0.26 3.88
1998 14670 12911 9 0.29 3.44
1999 - 12600 10 0.32 3.10
2000 12110 12110 11 0.35 2.82
2001 11631 11700 12 0.39 2.58
2002 16558 11631 13 0.42 2.38
2003 13229 11026 14 0.45 2.21
2004 10571 10900 15 0.48 2.07
2005 10787 10787 16 0.52 1.94
2006 9464 10571 17 0.55 1.82
2007 9133 9966 18 0.58 1.72
2008 8727 9945 19 0.61 1.63
2009 8032 9464 20 0.65 1.55
2010 8241 9160 21 0.68 1.48
2011 7375 9133 22 0.71 1.41
2012 15806 9076 23 0.74 1.35
2013 8203 8727 24 0.77 1.29
2014 9945 8598 25 0.81 1.24
2015 9076 8241 26 0.84 1.19
2016 9966 8203 27 0.87 1.15
2017 11026 8032 28 0.90 1.11
2018 8598 7825 29 0.94 1.07
2019 12911 7375 30 0.97 1.03
2020 14199 - - - -
 Probability chart
for Bhairab Bazar
Station
25000

20000

Ordered Flow
15000

y = 3375.9ln(x) + 8113.3
R² = 0.9774 10000

5000

0
1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Return Period, T
 STATION: HARDINGE BRIDGE
𝑚
𝒎 1
𝟏
Year Observed flow [cumec] Ordered flow Rank [m] 𝑝=
𝒑
1
𝟏++𝑁𝑵 𝑇=
𝑻
𝑝
𝒑
1990 49900 73091 1 0.03 30.00
1991 55100 61123 2 0.07 15.00
1992 41800 59876 3 0.10 10.00
1993 44700 56424 4 0.13 7.50
1994 - 56135 5 0.17 6.00
1995 - 55100 6 0.20 5.00
1996 54488 54488 7 0.23 4.29
1997 42465 54225 8 0.27 3.75
1998 73091 54217 9 0.30 3.33
1999 61123 53408 10 0.33 3.00
2000 52539 52539 11 0.37 2.73
2001 53408 50562 12 0.40 2.50
2002 40980 49900 13 0.43 2.31
2003 59876 49035 14 0.47 2.14
2004 37706 48685 15 0.50 2.00
2005 43620 46679 16 0.53 1.88
2006 37254 45325 17 0.57 1.76
2007 54217 44700 18 0.60 1.67
2008 50562 44275 19 0.63 1.58
2009 38601 43620 20 0.67 1.50
2010 40276 43412 21 0.70 1.43
2011 48685 42465 22 0.73 1.36
2012 44275 41800 23 0.77 1.30
2013 54225 40980 24 0.80 1.25
2014 43412 40749 25 0.83 1.20
2015 46679 40276 26 0.87 1.15
2016 56135 38601 27 0.90 1.11
2017 49035 37706 28 0.93 1.07
2018 40749 37254 29 0.97 1.03
2019 56424 - - - -
2020 45325 - - - -
 Probability chart
for Hardinge Bridge
Station
80000

70000

60000

Ordered Flow
50000

40000
y = 9457.1ln(x) + 39922
30000
R² = 0.9444
20000

10000

0
1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Return Period, T
 STATION: BARURIA
𝑚
𝒎 1
𝟏
Year Observed flow [cumec] Ordered flow Rank [m] 𝑝=
𝒑
1
𝟏++𝑁𝑵 𝑇=
𝑻
𝑝
𝒑
1990 83200 141940 1 0.03 32.00
1991 99000 114128 2 0.06 16.00
1992 72200 109000 3 0.09 10.67
1993 83300 106286 4 0.13 8.00
1994 81700 99800 5 0.16 6.40
1995 99800 99000 6 0.19 5.33
1996 96500 98213 7 0.22 4.57
1997 89965 98047 8 0.25 4.00
1998 141940 97572 9 0.28 3.56
1999 92417 97400 10 0.31 3.20
2000 87058 97281 11 0.34 2.91
2001 86312 96500 12 0.38 2.67
2002 80988 96274 13 0.41 2.46
2003 106286 94820 14 0.44 2.29
2004 114128 92417 15 0.47 2.13
2005 98047 91820 16 0.50 2.00
2006 60358 91500 17 0.53 1.88
2007 45751 91359 18 0.56 1.78
2008 97572 90818 19 0.59 1.68
2009 82441 89965 20 0.63 1.60
2010 79739 87058 21 0.66 1.52
2011 90818 86312 22 0.69 1.45
2012 96274 83300 23 0.72 1.39
2013 91820 83200 24 0.75 1.33
2014 98213 82441 25 0.78 1.28
2015 94820 81700 26 0.81 1.23
2016 91359 80988 27 0.84 1.19
2017 97281 79739 28 0.88 1.14
2018 91500 72200 29 0.91 1.10
2019 97400 60358 30 0.94 1.07
2020 109000 45751 31 0.97 1.03
 Probability chart
for Baruria
Station
160000

140000

120000

Ordered Flow
100000

80000

y = 16798ln(x) + 75620 60000

R² = 0.7697
40000

20000

0
1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Return Perios, T
 STATION: MAWA
𝑚
𝒎 1
𝟏
Year Observed flow [cumec] Ordered flow Rank [m] 𝑝=
𝒑
1
𝟏++𝑁𝑵 𝑇=
𝑻
𝑝
𝒑
1990 - 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1991 - 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1992 - 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1993 - 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1994 88990 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1995 100000 100000 1 0.04 26.00
1996 85605 96491 2 0.08 13.00
1997 82324 94100 3 0.12 8.67
1998 100000 88990 4 0.15 6.50
1999 96491 88009 5 0.19 5.20
2000 85597 86578 6 0.23 4.33
2001 71962 86075 7 0.27 3.71
2002 - 85605 8 0.31 3.25
2003 100000 85597 9 0.35 2.89
2004 100000 85016 10 0.38 2.60
2005 86075 82324 11 0.42 2.36
2006 70984 80511 12 0.46 2.17
2007 - 80346 13 0.50 2.00
2008 100000 79344 14 0.54 1.86
2009 69798 71962 15 0.58 1.73
2010 80511 71886 16 0.62 1.63
2011 80346 71820 17 0.65 1.53
2012 71886 70984 18 0.69 1.44
2013 85016 69798 19 0.73 1.37
2014 79344 44572 20 0.77 1.30
2015 88009 - - - -
2016 94100 - - - -
2017 100000 - - - -
2018 44572 - - - -
2019 71820 - - - -
2020 86578 - - - -
 Probability chart
for Mawa
Station
120000

100000

80000

Ordered Flow
60000

y = 10354ln(x) + 68600
R² = 0.7683 40000

20000

0
1.00 2.00 4.00 8.00 16.00 32.00
Return Period, T
 Chance Flood Calculation:
Chance
Given Return
flood [100 /
Station Name Equation from graph Flow [y], period
Return
Cumec [x], year
Period], %
Bahadurabad y= 18347 ln(x) + 48126 21016 0.23 100.00
Bhairab Bazar y = 3375.9 ln(x) + 8113.5 21016 45.69 2.19
Hardinge y = 9453.2 ln(x) + 39929 21016 0.14 100.00
Baruria y= 16792 ln(x) + 75632 21016 0.04 100.00
Mawa y= 10354 ln(x) + 68599 21016 0.01 100.00